Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis, as well as book recommendations, travel observations, and cultural experiences - all of which we hope will be of interest to you.

Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

The Global Week Ahead

December 31, 2023 - January 7, 2024

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

2023 now comes to a close, and we welcome 2024, hoping and praying for peace and prosperity for all. We won’t be writing a retrospective of 2023 - there is plenty of that sort of analysis flying around - and keep our focus on what is ahead. The week ahead will be, overall (at least so far), a quiet week on both the geopolitical and global economic fronts.

Beginning with the geopolitical outlook, all the major international bodies of importance to the markets will see new leadership. On January 1st, Belgium assumed the six-month rotating chair of the European Union, and Russia took the chair of the BRICS as several new members officially joined (although Argentina formally rejected an invitation to join late last week). Italy takes the chair of the G7, Brazil takes the chair of the G20, Laos takes the chair of ASEAN, and (for the next month) France takes the chair of the UN Security Council.

How each of these countries successfully presses their respective geopolitical vision of the world - or not — will be important to markets in 2024. While changes can be seen as incremental, they can also, at times, be massive. And there is little doubt already that Russia will push hard to use the BRICS to drive a wider wedge between the Global South and the West, while Brazil will use the G20 chair as a means to elevate the Global South and Latin America’s role in geopolitics.

Looking regionally, tensions and violence in the Middle East escalated over the last week, not only in Gaza but on the Israeli-Lebanese border and the Red Sea as US and British Naval Forces began efforts to protect commercial shipping from Houthi attacks (resulting in the sinking of three small Houthi naval craft and more than a dozen Houthi rebels killed). With this in mind, we will be watching on Wednesday when Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah gives a broadcast address marking the 4th anniversary of the death of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani.  The speech, which will be delivered in Beirut, could give an indication of Hezbollah’s military intentions toward Israel.

In Asia, we are watching as Taiwan goes into the final two weeks of presidential campaigning. The country goes into an enforced black-out period on Wednesday on all polls in an effort to prevent disinformation campaigns (mostly coming from China).

Turning to the global economic data calendar, it is a particularly quiet week. There are no central bank speeches of note being given and no central bank meetings (although the US Federal Reserve releases FMOC meeting minutes are released on Wednesday).

What markets will be watching all week is the release of PMIs and other important inflation data from virtually every major market. Also, this week, the US employment numbers on Friday will be an important signal as to how fast and well the Federal Reserve has cooled down the markets and might think of beginning the task of lowering interest rates.

Below is what else we are closely watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, December 31, 2023

 Global

  • HAPPY NEW YEAR’S EVE!  Goodbye 2023, hello 2024!

  • Most of the major multinational organizations will see a change in which country is chairing it in 2024.  Russia will take over the presidency of the BRICS tomorrow, Italy will take over the chair of the G7, Brazil will take over the chair of the G20, and Laos will take over the chair of ASEAN tomorrow (January 1).

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Today Azerbaijan celebrates International Solidarity Day, a public holiday commemorating the solidarity of the people after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989.

  • Timor-Leste celebrates National Heroes Day, a public holiday commemorating the death anniversary of Nicolau Lobato.  Lobato was the country’s first Prime Minister who was assassinated by Indonesian military forces in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The final step of Brexit takes place today as all retained direct EU legislation in the United Kingdom will be revoked under the "Brexit Freedoms" bill.  

  • Today is Spain’s last day holding the presidency of the European Council of the European Union. Belgium takes the Presidency of the Council on January 1, 2024.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Monday, January 1, 2024

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The US Congress remains out of session this week and returns the following week (The Senate on January 8 and the House of Representatives on January 9).  They face a packed schedule, mostly focused on funding requests for Ukraine and Israel and how to deal with the US southern border issue Republicans are demanding be dealt with as part of a deal on Ukraine funding.  They are also approaching critical deadlines to get the 2024 appropriations bills finalized.

  • In the US, the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) goes into effect today.  The CTA, enforced by FinCEN, is a new set of tax regulations aimed at exposing the Beneficial Ownership of shell companies to battle corruption, money laundering, and tax evasion.

  • Today is Haiti's 220th Independence Day, celebrating the abolition of slavery in the country in 1804.

  • The Disney Company’s copyright of the first Mickey Mouse officially ends.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Tuesday, January 2, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Construction Spending (November)

  • Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Balance of Trade (December)

  • Mexico S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Fiscal Balance (November)

  • Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (November)

  • Argentina Tax Revenue (December)

  • Paraguay Current Account (Q2)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Singapore S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Inflation (December), Tourist Arrivals (November)

  • Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (December), Commodity Prices (December)

  • Singapore GDP (Q4), URA Property Index (Q4)

  • Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Spain observes Reconquest Day, commemorating when the country liberated lands captured by the Moors 9n 1492.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December), Loans to Companies (December), Loans to Households (December), M3 Money Supply (November)

  • Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Total Credit (November)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah will give an address to mark the fourth anniversary of the death of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani.  The speech, which will be delivered in Beirut, could give an indication of Hezbollah’s military intentions toward Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Ethiopia Inflation (December)

  • Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (December) 

 

Wednesday, January 3, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Federal Reserve Board FOMC Minutes

  • Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin will speak before the Raleigh Chamber Launch 2024, Raleigh, North Carolina.

  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI (December),  JOLTs Job Opening (November), MBA Mortgage Market Index (December 29), API Crude Oil Stock Change (December 29)

  • Mexico FX Reserves (November), Business Confidence (December)

  • Brazil Current Account (November), FDI (November)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Taiwan begins an enforced blackout period on all polling in advance of the January 13 presidential elections.  It is expected that Chinese-backed online disinformation will likely surge during this ten-day period.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (December)

  • Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Business Confidence (December)

  • New Zealand Global Dairy Price Trade Price Index (January 2)

  • Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December), Inflation (December), Wholesale Prices (December), Balance of Trade (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Germany Unemployment (December)

  • Spain New Car Sales (December), Unemployment (December), Tourist Arrivals (November)

  • Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Russia Inflation (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (December)

  • Qatar Balance o of Trade (November)

  • Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December), Inflation (December), CPI (December), CPI (December), PPI (December)

  • Israel M1 Money Supply (October)

  • Oman Total Credit (October)

  • Bahrain Inflation (November)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Thursday, January 4, 2024

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Challenger Job Cuts (December), ADP Employment Change (December), S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (December), EIA Natural Gas Stock Change (December 28), EIA Cured Oil Stocks Change (December 29), EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (December 29), EIA Crude Oil Imports Change (December 29), LMI Logistics Managers Index (December)

  • Canada S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (December)

  • Brazil PPI (November), Banking Lending (November)

  • Uruguay Inflation (December)

  • Colombia PPI (December)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (December)

  • Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI December)

  • South Korea FX Reserves (December)

  • Singapore S&P Global PMI (December)

  • Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (December), Judo Bank Composite PMI (December)

  • Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (December), Retail Sales (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (December)

  • Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (December), Inflation (December)

  • France Inflation (December), HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (December)

  • UK S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (December), Bank of England Consumer Credit (November), Mortgage Approvals & Lending (November), Net Lending to Individuals (November)

  • Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (December)

  • Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (December)

  • Ireland AIB Services PMI (December), Harmonized Inflation (December)

  • Romania PPI (November)

  • Hungary Balance of Trade (November)

  • Slovenia Balance of Trade ((November)

  • Greece Unemployment (November)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt S&P Global PMI (December), FX Reserves (December)

  • UAE S&P Global PMI (December)

  • Turkey Auto Sales (December), FX Reserves (December 28)

  • Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (December)

  • Qatar Financial Centre PMI (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa S&P Global PMI (December)

  • Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (December)

  • Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (December)

  • Uganda Stanbic Bank Uganda PMI (December)

  • Ghana S&P Global PMI (December)

 

Friday, January 5, 2024

 Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin will speak before the Maryland Bankers Association First Friday Economic Outlook Forum, Linthicum Heights, Maryland.

  • US Non-Farm Payrolls (December), Unemployment Rate (December), ISM Services PMI December), Factory Orders (November), Banker Hughes Rig Count (January 5), Total Vehicle Sales (December)

  • Canada Unemployment (December), Ivey PMI (December)

  • Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (December), Gross Debt to GDP (November), Nominal Budget Balance (November), Industrial Production (November)

  • Chile Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes

  • Colombia Inflation (December), Exports (November)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMIs (December), Consumer Confidence (December)

  • India S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (December), Fiscal Year GDP Growth (2023-2024), FX Reserves (December 29)

  • Singapore Retail Sales (November)

  • Philippines Inflation (December), Unemployment (December), Industrial Production (November), FX Reserves (December)

  • Taiwan Inflation (December), FX Reserves (December)

  • Thailand Inflation (December)

  • Hong Kong FX Reserves (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (December), Inflation (December), CPI (December), PPI (December)

  • Germany Retail Sales (November), HCOB Construction PMI (December), New Car Registrations (December)

  • France HCOB Construction PMI (December)

  • Italy HCOB Construction PMI (December), Inflation (December), CPI (December)

  • UK Halifax House Price Index (December), New Car Sales (December)

  • Spain Business Confidence (December), Consumer Confidence (December)

  • Poland Inflation (December), FX Reserves (December)

  • Hungary PPI (November), Unemployment (November), Inflation (December)

  • Switzerland FX Reserves (December)

  • Ukraine FX Reserves (December)

  • Greece Construction Output (Q3)

  • Serbia PPI (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Jordan GDP (Q3)

  • Israel Business Confidence (December), FX Reserves (December)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Angola GDP (Q3)

  • Uganda Business Confidence (December), Balance of Trade (December)

 

Saturday, January 6, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

  

Sunday, January 7, 2024

 Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • CES 2024 (Consumer Technology Association) begins in Las Vegas.  The world’s largest consumer technology trade show will display what is expected to be cutting-edge AI, virtual reality, and other advanced consumer electronics.  Executives from Nvidia, Samsung, and other global tech firms will be present to brief reporters and consumers.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The Russian Orthodox Church celebrates Christmas.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

The Global Week Ahead

November 5 - 12, 2023

This week, markets will focus heavily on the APEC Summit in San Francisco, California.  It begins at the end of the week, and President Biden will have a bilateral side meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.  While no significant diplomatic or trade breakthroughs are expected to come from the meeting, it will be seen by markets as further solidification of the "floor" that is being built under U.S.-China relations, which have been in a spiral for several years.   But we will also be watching to see if rumored diplomatic meetings begin this week, as well, between U.S. and Chinese diplomats on a nuclear arms control agreement.

The Israeli-Gaza War continues to grip the attention of the world, and it will be the focus of numerous other meetings around the world this week.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be in Seoul, South Korea, and Japan for the G7 Foreign Ministers meeting, and then India for the India-US 2+2 meetings (with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin), where the situation in Gaza will be a primary focus as well as the ongoing Ukraine War.   We would also note that an emergency meeting of the Arab League will take place later this week at the request of the Palestinian Authority to find a way to bring peace.

The European Union will release a report this week assessing the status of several nations seeking E.U. membership, most notably Ukraine.  The report will likely recommend moving forward with Ukrainian integration into the EU.

In the U.S., Tuesday will see several states holding elections, most notably in Virginia, where Virginia Governor Glenn Younkin seeks to win Republican control of the State Senate.  Many observers believe that if Younkin's efforts are successful – entirely flipping Virginia from being a completely Democratic-controlled state to a completely Republican state at the governor's, Lt. Governors, Attorney Generals, Virginia State House of Delegates, and the State Senate – we may see him move to jump into the Presidential campaign.  All this happens as current Republican presidential candidates gather in Miami for the 3rd presidential debates.

On the global economic radar screen, markets will be watching China inflation data being released Thursday, along with significant data releases from Japan and meeting minutes from the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and several other central banks.  The U.S. is light on economic data this week, but we will see several Fed Governors giving significant speeches on the economic outlook.  Other leading central bankers – including ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, along with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda – will be speaking at various conferences this week, as well.

 Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, November 5, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • In the US, Daylight Savings Time ends.  Enjoy your extra hour of sleep!

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Moldova holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt S&P Global PMI (October)

  • Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (October)

  • Qatar Financial Centre PMI (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.  

 

Monday, November 6, 2023

Global

  • New York Federal Reserve Supply Chain Pressure Index is released.

  • The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) will launch the flagship report "The State of Food and Agriculture 2023", which will be held under the theme "Revealing the true cost of food to transform agri-food systems"

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The US and China may begin formal nuclear weapons arms control talks.  This has yet to be confirmed.

  • The Milken Institute hosts the 2023 Future of Health Summit through November 8 in Washington, D.C.  Leading healthcare CEOs and government officials are scheduled to speak.

  • Former U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to appear on the witness stand in his New York fraud trial.

  • The Dominican Republic celebrates Constitution Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech at Duke University on Financial Stability in Durham, North Carolina.

  • Canada Ivey PMI (October)

  • Brazil Current Account (September), FDI (September)

  • Mexico Consumer Confidence (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

  • The 32nd  Pacific Islands Forum begins in the Cook Islands. This is an intergovernmental organization that seeks to enhance cooperation between the territories and countries of Oceania.  Climate change, trade, and mutual security are the top items on the agenda.

  • Asia-Pacific Climate Week begins in Malaysia. Hosted by the government of Malaysia, the conference is a regional collaboration platform to provide region-focused efforts on energy systems and industry; cities, urban and rural settlements, infrastructure, and transport; land, ocean, food, and water; societies, health, and livelihoods; and economies.

  • The Hong Kong Monetary Authority Finance Summit begins and runs through November 7. Top global bankers and asset managers from Goldman Sachs, UBS, BlackRock, Sequoia China, and alike will be attending Hong Kong's second global financial leaders' investment summit. Participants are invited to a welcome dinner before the event's official start on Tuesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Jibun Bank PMIs (October)

  • Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (October), ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (October)

  • Indonesia GDP (Q3)

  • Thailand Inflation (October)

  • Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • European Council President Charles Michel, EU President Ursula von der Leyen, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, and European Parliament President Roberta Metsola participate in the EU Ambassadors Conference 2023.

  • EU Ministers who are responsible for space programs hold an informal meeting through November 7 in Sevilla, Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone HCOB PMIs (October)

  • Germany Factory Orders (September), HCOB PMIs (October)

  • France HCOB PMIs (September)

  • UK New Car Sales (October), S&P/CIPS Construction PMI (October)

  • Spain HCOB PMIs (October)

  • Italy HCOB PMIs (October)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NATO Secretary General, Mr. Jens Stoltenberg, will meet with Jordan’s King Abdullah in Amman, Jordan, to discuss the situation in Gaza.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Tourist Arrivals (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko and the Republic of Senegal will hear the preliminary ruling on the dissolution of his political party in the Ecowas Court of Justice on Monday.

  • Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kubela will visit South Africa on Monday. He’ll meet with foreign affairs minister Naledi Pandor in Pretoria.  South Africa has been supportive of Russia’s war efforts and has been accused on several occasions of supplying weapons to Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

 

Tuesday, November 7, 2023

Global

  • G7 Foreign Ministers will meet in Tokyo through November 8.  The Israel-Hamas War will be the dominant issue, as well as the Ukraine War.

  • The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) launches the Least Development Countries Report 2023. This annual report provides a comprehensive and authoritative source of socio-economic analysis and data on the world´s most impoverished countries.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on financial technology at the 7th Annual DC Fintech Week, Washington, D.C.

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech entitled “Using Economic Data to Understand the Economy” at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Conference: Beyond the Numbers 2023 in St. Louis, Missouri.

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook speaks on financial stability at the Central Bank of Ireland Financial System Conference 2023: Achieving Good Outcomes in an Uncertain World, Dublin 4, Ireland

  • New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams is the moderator of a hybrid discussion organized by the Economic Club of New York.

  • Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid to give opening keynote before the "Energy and the Economy: Reshuffling the Energy Deck" conference co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.  At the conference luncheon, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan will speak.

  • US Imports/Exports (September), Redbook (November 4), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (November), Total Household Debt (Q3), Consumer Credit Change (September), Used Car Prices (October), LMI Logistics Managers Index (October)

  • The Bank of Canada hosts its annual John Kuszczak Memorial Lecture. Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, CBB Copom Meeting Minutes, Bank Lending (September), Gross Debt to GDP (September), Nominal Budget Balance (September)

  • Mexico Auto Exports & Production (October)

  • Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

  • Costa Rica Inflation (October)

  • Argentina Industrial Production (September)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Elections in two Indian states (Mizoram and Chhattisgarsh) begins today with a second round of voting on November 17.  These are highly competitive races and will help shape the 2024 national general elections.

  • The 6th India-Malaysia Joint Commission Meeting is scheduled to take place in New Delhi. Representatives of the two countries will discuss  the progress of their "enhanced strategic partnership" in areas such as defense, trade and investment, health and technology. India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and his Malaysian counterpart Zambry Abdul Kadir are set to co-chair the meeting.

  • Nikkei and Swiss Business School IMD host a two-day Global Management Dialogue in Tokyo.  Business leaders – including the CEOs of Morgan Stanley, Intel, and other major corporations will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

  • Japan Household Spending (September)

  • Taiwan Inflation (October)

  • Hong Kong FX Reserves (October)

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

  • New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index

  • Philippines Inflation (October), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

  • Indonesia FX Reserves (October)

  • Malaysia Industrial Production (September)

  • Pakistan Balance of Trade (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Jordanian King Hussein in Brussels.  They will discuss the situation in Israel.

  • In Brussels, train staff will go on strike through November 9 over pay.

  • King Charles to conduct his first state opening of the UK Parliament as monarch.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Qatar GDP (Q2)

  • Israel Business Confidence (October)

  • Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Liberia holds the second round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa FX Reserves (October)

  • Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision  

 

Wednesday, November 8, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • U.S. Republican Presidential candidates gather in Miami, Florida, for the 3rd Presidential Debate.  To qualify for the debate, candidates must have at least 4 percent in two national polls or 4 percent in one national poll as well as 4 percent in at least two early primary states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina).

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives opening remarks at the Division of Research and Statistics Centennial Conference, Washington, D.C.

  • Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on the Community Reinvestment Act at the National Association of Affordable Housing Lenders (NAAHL) – Annual Policy & Practice Conference, Washington, D.C.

  • Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives closing remarks at the Division of Research and Statistics Centennial Conference, Washington, D.C.

  • New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to give a keynote before the hybrid event, "Research and Statistics at 100: A Look at the Past, Present, and Future" organized by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

  • US MBA Mortgage Market Index (November 3), Wholesale Inventories (September)

  • Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations

  • Brazil Retail Sales (September), Car Production (October)

  • Chile Inflation (October)

  • Ecuador Inflation (October)

  • Peru Balance of Trade (September)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda participates in a discussion with Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf at the Financial Times Global Boardroom conference in London.

  • China FX Reserves (October)

  • Japan Reuters Tankan Index (November), FX Reserves (October), Coincident Index (September), Leading Economic Index (September)

  • South Korea Current Account (September)

  • Australia Reserve Bank Chart Pack, Building Permits (September), Private House Approvals (September)

  • Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

  • New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations (Q4)

  • Indonesia Consumer Confidence (October)

  • Philippines FX Reserves (October)

  • Malaysia Construction Output (Q3), Unemployment (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will meet with Hungarian President Kataalin Novák at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.  Novák has said “Hungary is no rush” to ratify Sweden’s bid to join NATO, the last member to hold out.

  • The EU Commission is expected to release a report on the progress of several countries – including Ukraine – toward achieving EU membership.   This will lead to a decision by the European Commission on December 14 on which countries to grant admission.  Aside from Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova are leading candidates.

  • In the UK, a ban on the use of laughing gas will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel FX Reserves (October), Budget Balance (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Africa Investment Forum’s annual Market Days begins and runs through November 10.  It will bring together investors, business and government leaders, and heads of development finance institutions in Marrakech, Morocco

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Tanzania Inflation (October) 

 

Thursday, November 9, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates in a policy panel discussion at the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference in Washington, D.C.

  • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will participate in a fireside chat on the importance of surveys and how the survey data informs the economic outlook and policy views before the Central Bank Business Survey Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's New Orleans Branch.

  • Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to discuss virtually the "Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Fed Policy" in a Market News International webinar.

  • St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank Interim President Kathleen O'Neill Paese to speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in a moderated conversation before an event co-sponsored by the Association for Corporate Growth Kentucky, Financial Executives International Louisville, and CFA Society Louisville.

  • US Initial Jobless Claims (November 4), WASDE Report, US Crop Report

  • Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (October)

  • Paraguay Inflation (October)

  • Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The US and India will hold the US-India 2+2 Meetings in New Delhi.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with their Indian counterparts, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and Defense Secretary Rajnath Singh, to discuss the situation in Israel and Ukraine.

  • Cambodia celebrates Independence Day, a public holiday.  It commemorates the country’s independence from France in 1953.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Inflation (October), PPI (October)

  • Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, Japan Current Account (September), Bank Lending (October), Eco Watchers Survey (October)

  • Philippines GDP (Q3), Industrial Production (September)

  • New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (October)

  • Malaysia Retail Sales (September)

  • Indonesia Retail Sales (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) Development Bank in Berlin, Germany.

  • Today is the 85th  anniversary of the pogrom against the country’s Jewish population, known as Reichskristallnacht or the Night of Broken Glass. President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will give a speech in Berlin.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • The EU’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  The meeting agenda includes a review of economic governance, the economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the Implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Faculty.

  • ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives opening remarks (virtual) at the ECB Conference on Money Markets 2023 in Frankfurt, Germany,.

  • UK RICS House Price Balance (October)

  • Italy CPI (October), Inflation (October)

  • Hungary Balance of Trade (September), Budget Balance (October)

  • Romania Balance of Trade (September)

  • Slovakia Balance of Trade (September)

  • Bulgaria Balance of Trade (September)

  • Serbia Balance of Trade (September)

  • Russia FX Reserves (October)

  • Ukraine Inflation (October)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (September)

  • Turkey FX Reserves (November 3)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Gold Production (September), Mining Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September)

 

Friday, November 10, 2023

Global

Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Veterans Day is observed in the U.S. a federal holiday.

  • Panama celebrates “Primer Grito de Indepencia,” a public holiday.  It commemorates the first call for national independence in 1821.

  • The U.S. Marine Corps celebrates its birthday day, having been established by the Continental Congress in 1775.  OORAH!

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to speak before the European Central Bank Conference on Money Markets 2023 in Frankfurt, Germany.

  • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on "Economic Mobility and Challenges in the Community" before the Mobile Chamber of Commerce, Mobile, Alabama.

  • US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (November), Michigan Inflation Expectations (November)

  • Brazil Inflation (October), Business Confidence (November)

  • Mexico Industrial Production (September)

  • El Salvador PPI (October), Inflation (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • India Industrial Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September)

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Statement on Monetary Policy (Interest Rate Decision)

  • New Zealand Business NZ PMI (October)

  • Philippines FDI (August)

  • Hong Kong GDP (Q3)

  • Thailand Consumer Confidence (October)

  • Malaysia GDP (Q3), Current Account (Q3)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a fireside chat with Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf at the Financial Times' Global Boardroom 2023 in London, UK.

  • UK GDP (Q3), Business Investment (Q3), Goods Trade Balance (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Industrial Production (September), Balance of Trade (September), NIERS Monthly GDP Tracker (October)

  • Italy Industrial Production (September)

  • Greece Inflation (October), Industrial Production (September)

  • Ireland Industrial Production (September)

  • Hungary Inflation (October)

  • Poland Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

  • Slovenia Construction Output (September), Industrial Production (September)

  • Bulgaria Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

  • Kosovo Inflation (October)

  • Russia Balance of Trade (September), Inflation (October)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt Inflation (October)

  • Turkey Industrial Production (September), Unemployment (September)

  • Israel Consumer Confidence (October)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

 

Saturday, November 11, 2023

Global

  • The U.S. hosts the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Summit in San Francisco.

  • Today is Remembrance Day (also known as Poppy Day), observed by Commonwealth nations, commemorating the end of World War I.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Outstanding Loan Growth (October), Total Social Financing (October), M2 Money Supply (October), New Yuan Loans (October), Vehicle Sales (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Angola celebrates Independence Day, a public holiday.  The day celebrates the country’s victory over Portuguese military forces and the establishment of the new government in 1975.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

  

 

Sunday, November 12, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Hindus around the world celebrate Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

Global Week Ahead

September 24 - October 1, 2023

The markets have a lot to watch in the political sphere this coming week, foremost being the looming U.S. federal government shutdown unless House Republicans can a figure out to cobble together a temporary funding extension.  At this point, the chances of successfully achieving a short-term deal look remote.  Tied up in all this is the question of whether House Republicans will also block new spending requests from the White House for Ukrainian military aid.  We are seeing resistance to more funding at an all-time high among a number of Republicans.  We will be offering regular updates as midnight, September 30th approaches as well as on what will happen with the Ukrainian funding bill.

Also, this week, the second Republican presidential debate will be held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.  Former President Donald Trump has again refused to participate.

On the geopolitical radar screen this week, we will be watching closely as President Biden hosts the Pacific Islands Forum in Washington.  The Forum, comprised of 18 countries, is an opportunity for the U.S. to further counter China’s efforts to establish stronger security ties with many of the nations.   

Also, this week, the EU and China hold their 10th annual Economic and Trade Summit in Beijing.  The meetings come at a time of considerable tension between the EU and China over the EU’s efforts to restrict technology exports to China as well as the EU’s heightened criticism of human rights in China.  The Summit will likely give markets some guidance on how these trade tensions are likely to unfold further – or not – in the coming quarter.

On the global economic calendar this week, markets will be focused on inflation data coming out of a number of countries. In Asia, China’s and Japan’s PMIs are due to be released while the U.S. will be releasing PCE inflation data and personal income and spending figures.  In Europe, Germany will be releasing their CPIs on Thursday and a closely watched consumer confidence report on Wednesday. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week.

Sunday, September 24, 2023

Global

  • Today begins Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin continues his travels to Djibouti, Kenya, and Angola through September 28.  The purpose of the meetings is to strengthen partnerships and enhance regional security in the African continent and come at a time when Russia and China are ramping up their own efforts in the region.

  • Ecuador's presidential candidates, Luisa Gonzalez, and Daniel Noboa, will officially begin their campaigns for the presidential runoff vote on October 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Taiwan Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR 

 

Monday, September 25, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The United States and the 18 nations of the Pacific Islands Forum will hold their second annual summit in Washington, D.C., until September 26.  The Forum is comprised of 18 member nations.  The U.S. will be using the event to build stronger ties with many of these countries to counter China’s growing influence in the region.

  • Guatemala's President-elect Bernardo Arevalo may resume the power transition process with current President Alejandro Giammattei.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari participates in a question-and-answer session hosted by the Wharton Central Banking Club in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

  • US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (September)

  • Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (September), Current Account (August), FDI (August), BCB Focus Market Readout

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to meet business leaders in Osaka, western Japan, and hold a news conference.

  • Singapore CPI (August), Inflation (August)

  • Indonesia M2 Money Supply (August)

  • Malaysia Coincident Index (July), Leading Index (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde will give an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

  • ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give a speech at the  Johann-Heinrich-von-Thünen-Lecture in Regensburg, Germany 

  • Germany Ifo Business Climate (September), Ifo Current Conditions & Expectations (September)

  • UK CBI Distributive Trades (September)

  • Poland Unemployment (August)

  • Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (August)

  • Spain PPI (August)

  • Hungary Gross Wages (July)

  • Bosnia & Herzegovina Inflation (August), PPI (August), Industrial Production (August)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Business Confidence (September), Capacity Utilization (September)

  • Israel Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Lebanon Inflation (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR 

 

Tuesday, September 26, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The U.S. Senate is going to attempt to move a continuing resolution to keep the federal government past September 30.  Meanwhile, the House of Representatives returns to work, seeking a way to advance their own continuing resolution as well as advancing four separate appropriations bills.  At this point, it is seen as doubtful the bills will advance as dissident Republican members continue to demand significant cuts to the federal budget.

  • President Biden travels to Detroit to show support for the United Auto Workers strike against Detroit automakers, a day before former President Donald Trump visits Detroit to speak to strikers.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives welcoming remarks on Post-Pandemic Challenges and Strategies for Addressing Rental Housing Affordability (via pre-recorded video) at the FedCommunities event "Keys to Opportunity in the Housing Market: Research on Strategies for Preserving and Expanding Rental Housing Affordability," Washington, D.C.

  • US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (July), CB Consumer Confidence (September), New Home Sales (August), Richmond Fed Manufacturing/Fed Services Indexes (September), Dallas Fed Services Index (September), Building Permits (August)

  • Canada Manufacturing Sales (August), Wholesale Sales (August)

  • Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes, IPCA mid-month CPI (September)

  • Colombia Business Confidence (August)

  • Argentina Economic Activity (July), Retail Sales (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Foreign ministry officials from China, South Korea, and Japan will hold their first high-level trilateral talks since December 2019.  The meeting will take place in Seoul, and the focus of the meeting will be to see if they are capable of arranging a trilateral summit among the country’s leaders. 

  • South Korea holds its first military parade in the country for nearly a decade.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Korea Consumer Confidence (September)

  • Reserve Bank of Australia 2023 Conference on Inflation

  • Singapore Industrial Production (August)

  • Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

  • Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

  • Malaysia PPI (August)

  • Philippines Budget Balance (August)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Composite Economic Index (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Zambia’s Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane is expected to present the 2024 national budget to parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Zimbabwe Inflation (September)

  

Wednesday, September 27, 2023

Global

  • The BRICS member countries hold a parliamentary forum in South Africa.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The 2nd Republican Presidential Debate takes place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California.  Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy have all qualified to participate.  Former President Donald Trump has refused to participate; instead intends to address striking auto workers and other union members in Detroit.

  • President Biden travels to San Francisco to attend a campaign fundraising reception.  He will also attend a meeting of his Council of Advisors on Science and Technology.

  • In Panama, the trial of 36 individuals, including ex-presidents Ricardo Martinelli and Juan Carlos Varela, begins.  They are accused of money laundering with Brazilian construction group Odebrecht.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US MBA Mortgage Index (September 22), Durable Goods Orders (August)

  • Brazil Bank Lending (August)

  • Mexico Balance of Trade (August)

  • Uruguay Unemployment (August)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar travels to Washington for meetings with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other senior Biden Administration officials.

  • China's Golden Week will commence and last through October 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Industrial Profits (August)

  • Japan Coincident Index (July), Leading Economic Index (July)

  • Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

  • Australia Monthly CPI (August)

  • South Korea Business Confidence (September)

  • Thailand Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting (virtual)

  • ECB Board Member Andrea Enria will participate on a panel at Analysis Forum "Rischi e sfide per il settore bancario europeo" in Milan, Italy. 

  • EU Loans to Households (August),  Loans to Companies (August), M3 Money Supply (August)

  • Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (September)

  • France Unemployment (August), Consumer Confidence (September)

  • Greece Total Credit (August)

  • Ireland Retail Sales (August)

  • Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (September)

  • Bulgaria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Russia GDP (August), Unemployment (August), Real Wage Growth (July), Business Confidence (September), Corporate Profits (July), Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Qatar Balance of Trade (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Thursday, September 28, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives closing remarks (via pre-recorded video) at the Minorities in Banking Forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks on “The New Job Hierarchy” before the Money Marketeers of New York University.

  • US GDP (Q2), Initial Jobless Claims (September 23), Core PCE Prices (Q2), Retail Consumer Spending (Q2), Pending Home Sales (August), Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Indexes (September)

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Austin Goolsbee will give a policy speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington (virtually).

  • Canada CFIB Business Barometer (September), Average Weekly Earnings (July)

  • Brazil IGP-M Inflation (September), PPI (August), Net Payrolls (August), Private Bank Lending (August), M3 Money Supply (August)

  • Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision,  Unemployment (August)

  • Costa Rica GDP (Q2)

  • Argentina Consumer Confidence (September), Current Account (Q2)

  • Paraguay Current Account (Q2)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Australia Retail Sales (August)

  • New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meets in Brussels to discuss reform of EU asylum legislation.

  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Council President Charles Michel will take part in the Berlin Global Dialogue Forum through September 29.

  • Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will make an official visit to Germany.

  • In the UK, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to address the Westminster Correspondents’ Dinner.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Economic Sentiment (September), Selling Price Expectations (September), Industrial Sentiment (September), Services Sentiment (September), Consumer Confidence (September), Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

  • Bank of England Executive Director for Markets Andrew Hauser at Market News International Connect Event ‘A journey of 1000 miles begins with a single step: filling gaps in the central bank liquidity toolkit’ in London.

  • Germany Inflation (September)

  • UK Car Production (August)

  • Spain Inflation (September), Retail Sales (September), Business Confidence (September), Consumer Confidence (September)

  • Italy Business Confidence (September), PPI (September)

  • Ireland Inflation (September)

  • Hungary PPI (August)

  • Serbia Business Confidence (September), Consumer Confidence (September)

  • Slovenia Retail Sales (August)

  • Montenegro Balance of Trade (August), Tourist Arrivals (August)

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina Retail Sales (August)

  

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Economic Confidence Index (September)

  • Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (August), M3 Money Supply (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa PPI (August)

  • Botswana GDP (Q2) 

 

Friday, September 29, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams delivers remarks and participates in a moderated discussion covering the economic outlook and monetary policy before a Long Island Association (LIA) Regional Economic Briefing, in Garden City, New York.  Later in the day, he moderates a discussion before the 2023 Environmental Economics and Policy Conference: “Measuring and Adapting to Climate Risk,” hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic participates in the moderated conversation, “Economic Outlook for 2024: Inflation, Rising Interest Rates, Labor Market, and Uncertainties,” before the Leadership Atlanta alumni roundtable, “Where Are We Going? Riding the Financial Rollercoaster: A Forward Look Beyond 2024”.

  • Nicolas Vincent, External Non-executive Deputy Governor of Bank of Canada at the Chambre de commerce du Montréal métropolitain.

  • US Core PCE Price Index (August), Personal Income & Spending (August), Retail Inventories (August), Wholesale Inventories (August), Goods Trade Balance (August), Chicago PMI (September), Michigan Consumer Sentiment/5Year Inflation Expectations/Current Conditions/Inflation Expectations Reports (September), Quarterly Grain Stocks (Corn/Soy/Wheat – September)

  • Canada GDP (July), Budget Balance (July)

  • Brazil Nominal Budget Balance (August), Gross Debt to GDP (August), Unemployment (August)

  • Mexico Fiscal Balance (August)

  • Chile Copper Production (August), Industrial Production (August), Manufacturing Production (August), Retail Sales (August), Unemployment (August)

  • Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Cement Production (August), Unemployment (August)

  • El Salvador Current Account (Q2)

  • Paraguay Current Account (Q4)

  • Uruguay Current Account (Q4), GDP (Q2)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Current Account (Q2)

  • India Current Account (Q2), External Debt (Q2), Government Budget Value (August), Infrastructure Output (August), FX Reserves (September 22)

  • Japan Unemployment (August), CPI (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (August), Consumer Confidence (September), Housing Starts (August), Construction Orders (August)

  • New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (September)

  • Philippines PPI (August)

  • Hong Kong Retail Sales (August)

  • Australia Housing Credit (August), Private Credit (August)

  • Singapore Bank Lending (August), PPI (August), Import/Export Prices (August)

  • Vietnam Balance of Trade (September), GDP (Q3), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Tourist Arrivals (September), Inflation (September), FDI (September)

  • Thailand Current Account (August), Private Consumption (August), Retail Sales (July)

  • Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August & September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the joint IEA-ECB-EIB conference on "Ensuring an orderly energy transition: Europe’s competitiveness and financial stability in a period of global energy transformation" in Paris, France. 

  • Eurozone Inflation (September), CPI (September)

  • Germany Retail Sales (August), Import Prices (August), Unemployment (September)

  • UK GDP (Q2), Current Account (Q2), Business Investment (Q2), BoE Consumer Credit (August), Mortgage Lending (August), Nationwide Housing Prices (September)

  • France Inflation (September), Household Consumption (August), PPI (August)

  • Spain Current Account (September)

  • Italy Inflation (September), CPI (September), Industrial Sales (July)

  • Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (September)

  • Poland inflation (September)

  • Greece PPI (August), Retail Sales (July)

  • Hungary Unemployment (August), Inflation (September), Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August), Inflation (September)

  • Bulgaria PPI (August), Business Confidence (September), Tourist Arrivals (August)

  • Slovenia CPI (September), Inflation (September)

  • Serbia Retail Sales ( August), Industrial Production (August), Balance of Trade (August)

  • Ukraine Current Account (August)

  • Russia M2 Money Supply

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

  • Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Swaziland (also known as Eswatini) holds legislative elections.

  • Zambia’s Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane is expected to present the 2024 national budget to parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Private Sector Credit (August), M3 Money Supply (August), Balance of Trade (August)

  • Uganda Inflation (September)

  • Nigeria FX Reserves (September)

  • Kenya Inflation (September)

  • Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, FX Reserves (August)

 

Saturday, September 30, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is the end of the fiscal year and the deadline for the U.S. Congress to come up with a temporary funding extension (a Continuing Resolution) or face a federal government shutdown.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The Maldives will hold its second round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing & General PMIs (September)

  • Bank of Japan to release summary of opinions from board members at its Sept. 21-22 policy meeting.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Slovakia holds legislative elections.

  • Pope Francis is expected to name as many as 21 new Cardinals.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Botswana Day, a national holiday celebrating the country’s independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR 

Sunday, October 1, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Argentina holds a presidential debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Indonesia’s first high-speed rail service – and the first high-speed rail operation in Southeast Asia – begins operations. Built jointly by Indonesia and China as part of China’s Belt & Road Initiative, it will connect Jakarta with West Java’s provincial capital Bandung.   It will be a 28-minute journey.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Caixin Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (September)

  • South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • In the UK, the Conservative Party conference kicks off in Manchester. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly and Defense Secretary Grant Shapps are on the main stage.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

The Global Week Ahead January 8 - 15, 2023

The world is returning to a regular schedule this week, coming off the holidays.  We will see several important bilateral and multilateral meetings in the coming days.

President Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will travel to Mexico City for a “Three Amigos” Summit hosted by Mexican President Andrés Manuel López (“AMLO”) to discuss trade issues as well as the ongoing migration challenges.  

Later in the week, Japan’s Prime Minister will meet with Biden – after meeting earlier in the week with his counterparts in France, the UK, Italy, and Canada – to discuss a multitude of issues of concern to the G7 (Japan is chairing the G7 this year) as well as the War in Ukraine.

The US Congress, now that the House of Representatives finally was able to elect Representative Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as Speaker, will get down to work with several hearings and essential organizational decisions.

The markets will look closely at the consumer price index (CPI) and other inflation data from the US, China, Japan, Australia, Brazil, and Mexico.  The only major economy looking at monetary policy change this week will be the Bank of Korea which is likely to raise interest rates another 25 basis points (bringing the rate up to 3.5 percent).

Here is what we are watching in the coming week:

 

Sunday, January 8, 2023: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden will travel to El Paso, Texas, to assess border enforcement operations and meet with local officials to discuss the ongoing migration crisis.  Biden will then travel to Mexico City for the “Three Amigos” Summit on Tuesday with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López (“AMLO”) and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

·       Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi visits Ecuador, Brazil, and Argentina to discuss trade issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will officially reopen its border to international travelers, dropping its mandatory quarantine rule and its daily flight limits.  Additionally, cross-border travel between Hong Kong and the mainland will set to resume.

·       Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will visit Indonesia through Monday, his first overseas trip as Prime Minister.  He will meet with Indonesian President Joko Widodo to discuss trade, economic issues, and migrant protections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg to attend and speak at the People and Defense (“Folk och Fösvar”) National Conference in Sälen, Sweden. The conference and the organization which runs it is dedicated to discussions about Sweden’s security, defense, and society’s crisis preparedness (e.g., what to do if invaded by Russia).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will speak at the American Economics Association Annual Meeting on “Monetary Policy for conventional times: What toolkit for the future?” in New Orleans, Louisiana.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) is set to announce its annual policy priorities at its annual election strategy conference.

·       Benin to hold legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

 

Monday, January 9, 2023:

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will co-host with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif the International Conference on Climate Resilient Pakistan in Geneva, Switzerland.  The goal is to encourage and coordinate an international pledge to help rebuild Pakistan after debilitating floods last year.

·       The UN-backed Scientific Assessment Panel to the Montreal Protocol on Ozone Depleting Substances quadrennial assessment report, published every four years, will be released.  

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US College Football Championship – the University of Georgia vs. Texas Christian University – will be played at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Consumer Inflation Expectations (December), Consumer Credit Change (November)

·       Canada Ivey PMI (December)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (December)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida begins a global travel schedule taking him to France, the UK, Italy, Canada, and the US through January 15th.

·       A group of German parliamentarians, all members of the Free Democratic Party, will visit Taiwan.

·       Japan celebrates Coming of Age Day, a national holiday that is held to congratulate and encourage all those who have reached the age of maturity (20) between April 2, 2022, and April 1, 2023.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Building Permits (November)

·       Indonesia FX Reserves (December)

·       Singapore FX Reserves (December)

·       Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy, in Rome, Italy.

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen Delivers a keynote speech at the book launch of ‘La saggezza e l'audacia. Discorsi per l'Italia e per l'Europa’ with selected speeches of the late President of the European Parliament David Sassoli in Rome, Italy.

·       The UK Parliament returns to session.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will speak at the Money Market Association of New York University on “The UK Economic and Monetary Policy Outlook”  in New York.

·       Eurozone Unemployment (November)

·       Germany Industrial Production (November)

·       France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), Current Account (November)

·       Italy Unemployment (November)

·       UK BBA Mortgage Rate (December)

· Hungary's Balance of Trade (November), Industrial Production (November), Budget Balance (December)

·       Switzerland Unemployment (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Budget Balance (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria is expected to begin, at the order of the Central Bank of Nigeria, limiting cash withdrawals.  Major protests are likely to break out nationwide.

·       Tanzania Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa FX Reserves (December), Vehicle Sales (December)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (December)

 

Tuesday, January 10, 2023: 

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the UN’s peacekeeping efforts in West Africa and the Sahel.

·       The UN’s resolution allowing cross-border aid to Syria will expire.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican President Andrés Manuel López (“AMLO”) will host President Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for a North American Leaders Summit in Mexico City.   There is a large agenda of issues they will discuss, ranging from regional trade concerns to climate issues to mass migration challenges.

·       Bolivia is bracing for nationwide protests (including roadblocks of major arteries) in response to the arrest of the opposition leader of the Santa Cruz region, Governor Luis Fernando Camacho, on terrorism charges.  Camacho has been highly critical of the left-wing government and has been calling on the government to move up census data that would likely give Santa Cruz more political representation and tax revenue.

·       Both the US Senate and the US House of Representatives are in session this week.   The House, now that it is formally convened and all members were sworn in with Representative Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) being elected Speaker of the House, will choose committee chairs and vote on key organizational issues haggled over during the Speaker election. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates on a panel entitled “Central Bank Independence and the Mandate – Evolving Views” at the Sveriges Riksbank International Symposium on Central Bank Independence, Stockholm, Sweden.

·       Cleveland Fed officials will host a 2023 Economic Outlook webinar 

·       US Redbook (January 7), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (January), Wholesale Inventories (November)

·       Brazil Inflation (December)

·       El Salvador Inflation (December)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nepal’s new Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal will likely face a no-confidence vote in parliament today.

·       Kosrae (an island located in the Federated States in Micronesia) celebrates Constitution Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (November)

·       Japan Household Spending (November), CPI (December)

·       Philippines Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (November), FDI (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen, together with NATO Secretary-General  Jens Stoltenberg, and Charles Michel, President of the European Council, signs the third Joint Declaration on NATO-EU Cooperation in Brussels.

·       France will begin considering a Pension Reform Bill.  A previous effort led by President Emmanuel Macron to reform the system was halted in 2020 after widespread protests and transport strikes in opposition to the effort paralyzed the country.

·       The UK will see the first orbital launch from mainland Britain.  It will be launched from Cornwall Airport Newquay via Virgin Orbit using a repurposed Boeing 747. The 747 will launch a rocket carrying nine satellites into space.

·       IN the UK, UK, members of the Public and Commercial Services Union at the Rural Payments Agency and DVLA in Swansea are to strike in an ongoing dispute over pay, pensions, job security, and redundancy terms.

·       Also in the UK, the teaching union NASUWT closes a strike ballot among members working in schools and sixth-form colleges in England and Wales, recommending that they vote for a walkout over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Norman Baily moderates a panel entitled (“central bank independence and new risks: Climate” at the Sveriges Riksbank International Symposium on Central Bank Independence, Stockholm, Sweden.  Also on the panel will be the Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.

·       UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (December)

·       France Industrial Production (November)

·       Spain Industrial Production (November)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (November)

·       Egypt Inflation (December)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (November), Unemployment (November), Participation Rate (November)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (November)

·       Rwanda Inflation (December)

  

Wednesday, January 11, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council holds a briefing and consultations on Colombia.

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on Cyprus.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US and Japanese defense officials will hold talks on military assistance to Japan in advance of Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio meeting with President Biden on Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US MBA Mortgage Market Index (January)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (November)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (November)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (November)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Costa Rica Inflation (December)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (November)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asian Financial Forum will be held in Hong Kong, marking one of the first major corporate events held in the city since lifting COVID restrictions.  A number of current and former government officials and financial services CEOs will be in attendance.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Unemployment (December)

·       Japan FX Reserves (December), Coincident Index (November), Leading Economic Index (November)

·       Australia CPI (November), Retail Sales (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK is bracing for a strike by ambulance staff who are members of the GMB union in their ongoing dispute over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Italy Retails (November)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Current Account (November)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Burkina Faso Republic Day, a national holiday celebrating the nation’s independence in 1958.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Thursday, January 12, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the promotion and strengthening of the rule of law in the maintenance of international peace and security: the Rule of Law among Nations. UN Secretary-General  António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks.  

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will speak to the Virginia Bankers Association and Virginia Chamber of Commerce at their financial forecast virtual event.

·       St. Louis Fed President James Bullard joins the Wisconsin Bankers Association's Midwest Economic Forecast Forum.

·       US Inflation (December), Initial Jobless Claims (January 7), CPI (December), Monthly Budget Statement (December)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (January)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (December)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (December)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will virtually host the “Voice of the Global South Summit.”   More than 120 developing countries are expected to attend.  India is now the chair of the G20, and this is part of Modi’s broader attempt to best represent the issues and concerns of smaller nations at the G20 Summit in September in New Delhi, India.

·       In Japan, Knasai Electric Power Company is scheduled to restart commercial operations of the #3 reactor at the Oi nuclear plant.  The #3 reactor was taken offline in September 2013, restarted in 2018, and then taken offline again for a series of upgrades.

·       Thailand celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation (December), PPI (December)

·       Japan Current Account (November), Banking Lending (December), Eco Watchers Survey (December), Eco Watchers Outlook (December)

·       India Manufacturing Production (November), Industrial Production (November), Inflation Rate (December),  M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Australia Building Permits (November), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Intelligence will hold a hearing to review a draft report on how the EU could develop legislation better blocking foreign interference in the EU’s democratic processes.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen leads a European Commission visit to Sweden to discuss the country’s priorities during its bloc presidency, which began this month.

·       In the UK, further rail strikes over pay, this time by members of the TSSA union at Rail for London Infrastructure, operator of London’s new Elizabeth Line service.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Current Account (November)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Retail Sales (November), FX Reserves (January 6)

·       Israel Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Namibia Inflation (December)

·       Ghana Inflation (December)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate

 

Friday, January 13, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a closed-door meeting on the situation in Afghanistan, specifically the Taliban’s ban on female humanitarian aid workers.

·       The UN Security Council will meet to discuss peace and security issues in Ukraine.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden will host Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio at the White House.  The two leaders are expected to discuss regional security issues, specifically how to bolster Japan’s missile defense systems in the face of more aggressive North Korean missile tests and more aggressive Chinese military drills in the region.  Kishida announced last month Japan will increase its national security budget to 2 percent of GDP by 2027 – putting it on par with NATO spending targets. Kishida may call snap elections before the scheduled 2025 elections as a result of this defense spending increase, as new tax increases are set to be implemented in 2024 to cover a shortfall of $7 billion for the defense budget.  Kishida is also expected to ask Biden to visit Nagasaki during the G7 Summit in May, which would be the first time a US President has visited the Japanese city, which was hit by a US atomic bomb in 1945.

·       In New York, the Trump Organization will be sentenced following a conviction in December for tax fraud.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will give the opening remarks at the bank's sixth annual Regional Economic Conditions Conference.

·       St. Louis Fed officials will hold a 2023 outlook discussion.

·       US Export Prices (December), Import Prices (December), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (January), Michigan Consumer Expectations (January), Michigan Current Conditions (January), Michigan Inflation Expectations (January)

·       Brazil IBC-Br Economic Activity (November)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (November)

·       Chile Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

·       Argentina Interest Rate Decision

·       Uruguay Unemployment (November)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India will host the Auto Expo 2023, one of the world’s largest motor shows.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (December), Outstanding Loan Growth (December), Total Social Financing (December), M2 Money Supply (December)

·       India FX Reserves (January), Deposit Growth (December), Bank Loan Growth (December), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

·       South Korea Export Prices (December), Import Prices (December), Interest Rate Decision

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (December), FX Reserves (December)

·       Australia Home Loans (November), Investment Lending for Homes (November)

·       Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate (Q3), PPI (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Czech Republic holds presidential elections (through Saturday).

·       In the UK, the National Education Union closes a strike ballot over pay among about 300,000 teachers and support staff in England and Wales.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (November), Balance of Trade (November)

·       Germany Full-Year GDP Growth (2022)

·       Italy Industrial Production (November)

·       UK GDP (November), Balance of Trade (November), Construction Output (November), Manufacturing Production (November), Goods Trade Balance (November), Industrial Production (November), Manufacturing Production (November), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (December)

·       France Inflation (December)

·       Spain CPI (December), Inflation Rate (December)

·       Poland Industrial Production (November), Inflation Rate (December), Balance of Trade (November), Current Account (November)

·       Hungary CPI (December),  Inflation (December), Industrial Production (November)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (December), FX Reserves (December), Inflation Rate (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (December)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Botswana Inflation (December) 

 

Saturday, January 14, 2023:

Global

· the Orthodox Church observes New Year.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       A delegation of US trade officials will travel to Taipei, Taiwan, for the first formal round of talks on a proposed US-Taiwan trade agreement.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December), FDI (December)

·       Taiwan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Kazakhstan holds Senate elections.

·       Russian New Year (“Novy God”) is celebrated in Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Tunisia celebrates its Revolutionary Anniversary, marking the December 2010 start of a movement to depose long-time ruler Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.  The uprising started with Mohamed Bouazizi, a vegetable seller, setting himself on fire in protest over police harassment.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Sunday, January 15, 2023:

Global

·       The World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru GDP (November), Unemployment (December)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China House Price Index (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (December), Wholesale Prices (December)

·       Israel Inflation (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

The Global Week Ahead: October 9 - 16, 2022:

Two events will dominate the global stage both politically and economically in the coming seven days: The first is the World Bank/International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, DC.  Finance ministers and central bank governors from around the world will gather to discuss several critical issues but battling a global recession, and rising inflation will be paramount on the list.

This week’s second major event will be the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, beginning October 16th.  The Congress is widely expected to enshrine President Xi Jinping further into the country’s constitution, giving him an unprecedented third term as President.  Other major constitutional changes are expected to be adopted including the possibility of giving Xi the title of “chairman” – an honorific previously given only to Communist China’s founder Mao Zedong and a further sign of the extraordinary size and scope of Xi’s political power.

This week will be fairly quiet globally regarding economic data reports.  But watch for two significant reports on Thursday: The US will get updated inflation figures and unemployment numbers, and China will release inflation figures and export/import numbers, giving markets a better sense of the country’s economic trajectory.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, October 9, 2022: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

China will convene the 7th Plenum of the 19th Party Congress to review preparations for the 20th Party Congress which begins October 16th.

Economic Reports/Events –

Australia Ai Group Services Index (September)

Indonesia Consumer Confidence (September

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Austria holds presidential elections.

Germany’s Lower Saxony holds state elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·      Uganda celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Monday, October 10, 2022:

Global

·       World Bank/International Monetary Fund Annual Meetings and related ancillary events begin and conclude October 16th.  The full schedule of events can be found HERE.

·       The Institute for International Finance holds its Annual Membership Meeting in Washington DC.

·       The International Nuclear Safety Group (a part of the International Atomic Energy Agency) meetings in Vienna, Austria.

·       The UN General Assembly holds its 16th Plenary meeting.  It will also hold its 11th Emergency Special Session.

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara.

·       The United Nations marks World Mental Health Day.

·       The Nobel Committee awards the Nobel Prize for Economics.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US celebrates Columbus Day, a federal holiday (the stock market is open, bond markets are closed)

·       The US Congress remains out of session until after the November 8th mid-term elections.

·       Canada celebrates Thanksgiving Day, a national holiday.

·       Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Lael Brainard gives a speech  on “Restoring Price Stability in an Uncertain Economic Environment” at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting in Chicago, Illinois

·       Peru Balance of Trade (August)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (September)

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea celebrates the 77th anniversary of its founding.

·       Taiwan celebrates National Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Current Account (August)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (October), NAB Business Confidence (September), Building Permits (August), Private House Approvals (August)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision, Consumer Confidence (September)

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       European Union President von der Leyen is in Estonia to meet Estonian Prime Minister Katja Kallas and President Alar Karis, as well as deliver a keynote address at Tallinn Digital Summit.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Berlin.  The two countries have been verbally jousting over energy supply policy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in IMF/World Bank Annual meetings in Washington DC.

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane gives opening remarks at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt, Germany.

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Algeria holds a meeting – a “National Dialogue” - for Palestinian leaders in a bid to find common ground among the various factions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production Rate (August)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (August), Auto Production (September)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       The South African Transport and Allied Workers Union are set to being a strike against Transnet SOC Ltd, South Africa’s largest port and freight rail operator.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Tanzania Inflation Report (September)

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (August & September)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (September) 

 

Tuesday, October 11, 2022:

Global

·       The IMF publishes its annual Global Financial Stability Report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US NFIB Business Optimism Index (September), Redbook (October), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (October), Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (September)

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan celebrates Sports Day, a national holiday.

 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (August)

·       Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current (September), Reuters Tankan Index (October), Machinery Orders (August)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (September)

  

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Informal meeting of EU Energy ministers in Prague, Czech Republic (through October 12th)

·       The UK Supreme Court begins hearing arguments from the Scottish National Party over whether they can legislate a referendum for independence without the Westminster government’s permission.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey does a fireside chat with Tim Adams, President & CEO of the Institute for International Finance at the IIF Annual Members Meeting in Washington DC.

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, DC

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane gives the keynote speech at the 7th SUERF, CGEG, COLUMBIA, SIPA, EIB and SOCIETE GENERALE Conference on “EU and US Perspectives: New Directions for Economic Policy” in New York.

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria does a fireside chat with Tim Adams at the 20222 IIF Annual Membership Meeting in Washington DC

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane does a fireside chat at the New York Fed’s Central Banking Seminar in New York.

·       UK Unemployment figures (August)

·       Italy Industrial Production (August)

·       Russia Current Account (Q3)

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Current Account (August)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Britain’s High Court of Justice hears a further legal challenge to the country’s deal with Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (August)

 

Wednesday, October 12, 2022: 

Global

·       The G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in Washington, DC (all are here for the IMF/World Bank Meetings).

·       OPEC Monthly Report

·       The UN Security Council holds a briefing and consolation on Colombia.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives a speech on “New Technologies, the Fed, and Inclusion” at the 2022 D.C. Fintech Week in Washington, DC

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech “Forward Guidance as a Monetary Policy Tool: Considerations for the Current Economic Environment” at the Money Marketeers of New York University in New York.

·       US Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes, PPIs (September), MBA Mortgage Rate (October), MBA Mortgage Index (October), WASDE Report,

·       Mexico Industrial Production (August)

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       A court in Myanmar is expected to hand down additional verdicts on corruption charges against Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace Prize winner and former Prime Minister.

·       The Commonwealth of Independent States holds a summit for foreign ministers in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Vehicle Sales (September)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (September), Bank Lending (September), PPIs (September)

·       Australia Consumer Confidence Inflation Expectations (October)

·       Indonesia Car & Vehicle Sales (September)

·       India Manufacturing Production (August), Inflation Rate (September)

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Ministers begin meetings in Brussels, chaired by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

·       EU President von der Leyen delivers a speech at the EU Ambassadors Conference.  She later meets with the College of Commissioners.

·       Informal Meeting of Employment and Social Affairs Minister in Prague, Czech Republic (through October 13th).

·       Spain celebrates National Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde does a fireside chat with Tim Adams, President and CEO of the Institute for International Finance at their 2022 Annual Membership Meeting in Washington DC.

·       UK GDP (August), Construction Output (August), Goods Trade Balance non-EU (August), Industrial Production (August), Manufacturing Production (August), Industrial Production (August), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (September)

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (August)

·       Poland Industrial Production (August)

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Turkey Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Thursday, October 13, 2022:

Global

·       International Energy Oil Market Report (October) released.

·       The Arctic Circle Assembly begins in Reykjavik.

·       The UN Security Council holds a consultation on the situation in Yemen.

·       The UN Human Rights Council will meet to discuss the situation in Haiti.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US House of Representative’s January 6th Investigative Committee will hold their likely last big hearing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Core Inflation Rate (September), Initial Jobless Claims (October), CPI (September)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (August)

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Kazakhstan will host the 30th Anniversary Summit of the Conference on the Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA).  Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend.

·       Taiwan will end mandatory quarantines for visitors to the island other than those coming from China, Macao, and Hong Kong. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (September), PPIs (September), Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (September), New Yuan Loans (September), Outstanding Loan Growth (September), Total Social Financing (September), M2 Money Supply (September)

·       South Korea Imports/Export Prices (September)

·       Singapore GDP (Q3)

·       Indonesia Motorbikes Sales (September)

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Justice and Home Affairs Council  meetings to discuss the state of investigations and prosecutions of Russians for war crimes (through October 14th).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Inflation Rate (September), Current Account (August)

·       UK BoE Credit Conditions Survey

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (September)

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon’s parliament meets to try again to come to an agreement on the countries next President.  Previous efforts have failed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (September), Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Turkey FX Reserves (October)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (September)

·       Iran Inflation Rate (September)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold/Mining Production figures (August)

 

Friday, October 14, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Retail Sales (September), Import Price Figures (September), Export Prices (September), Michigan Consumer Sentiment/Current Conditions/5-Year Inflation Expectations/Consumer Expectations Inflation Expectation Reports (October), Business Inventories (August)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (August)

·       Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (August), Manufacturing Sales (August), Wholesale Sales (August)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August), Balance of Trade (August)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (September)

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       India and the United States begin the 15th joint military exercise called “Yudh Abhyas” in Uttarakhand, 60 miles from the disputed India-China border.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, FX Reserves ((October), Passenger Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Indonesia WPI Fuel (September), WPI Manufacturing (September), WPI Food (September), WPI Inflation (September)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing (September), PPIs (August), Services PMI (September)

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Informal meeting of Eurogroup ministers in an inclusive format with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in Washington DC (as they will all be in Washington DC for the IMF/World Bank Meetings).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (September)

·       France Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (September)

·       Eurozone Balance of Trade (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (September), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (September), MI Money Supply (September), Manufacturing PMI (August)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

  

Saturday, October 15, 2022:

Global

·       The Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee holds its annual conference in Washington DC.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (August)

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane patriciates in the Annual global macro and digital annual program organized by Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee (RBWC) in Washington DC.

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

  

Sunday, October 16, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s People’s National Congress begins in Beijing.  It is here where President Xi Jinping is expected to be enshrined in the constitution allowing him an unprecedented third term as President.  Other major constitutional changes are expected, too.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (September)

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

The Global Week Ahead: October 2 – 9, 2022:

It is another eventful week ahead but leading the list is China’s Seventh Plenum of the 19th Party Congress next Sunday, October 9th.  The Plenum is where China’s all-powerful Central Committee reviews and approves all documents and proposals to be considered at the 20th Party Congress, which commences October 16th (it will be at the October 16th Congress where President Xi Jinping is expected to be given an unprecedented third term as China’s President).  

Also, this week OPEC+ will meet virtually to discuss oil prices and are expected to cut output by as much as 500,000 barrels a day to keep oil prices above $90.  Meanwhile, EU leaders will be meeting this week to discuss the situation in Ukraine, exploding energy prices in the EU, and how to cap them. 

Also, this week, beginning Monday, the Nobel Prizes announce their annual prizes for everything from chemistry to literature to peace.  The award for economics will be announced the following Monday (October 10th).

Closer to home, the US Congress has left until after the mid-term elections (now a month away), but the US Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) will meet to review and approve a report which will be the framework for regulating crypto markets.

On the economic front, we will be watching a host of PMIs being reported across Europe and Asia this week – all of which will factor heavily into next week’s IMF/World Bank meetings.  We will also be watching closely new US jobless data.  Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, October 2, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil holds general elections for president and parliament (first round).  If no one wins more than 50 percent in the first round, a run-off is held on October 30th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       A delegation of German members of parliament arrive for an official visit of Taiwan for the first time since 2019.

·       Australia daylight savings begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3), Tankan Small Manufacturers (Q3), Tankan Large All Industry Outlook (Q3), Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Singapore URA Property Index (Q3)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina hold general elections.

·       Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections (the fourth in two years).

·       London hosts the London Marathon.

·       The UK Conservative Party holds their party conference in Birmingham.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

  

Monday, October 3, 2022:

Global

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency meets in Vienna, Austria.  It is expected they will discuss the Iranian nuclear weapons program, President Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons, and North Korea’s growing nuclear weapons program.

·       The Nobel Prize Committee announces the Prize for Physiology or Medicine in Stockholm, Sweden.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) meets to review and approve the report required by President Biden on digital assets.  The report – “Ensuring Responsible Development of Digital Assets” – will serve as the framework for the Administration’s regulation of crypto.

·       Canada holds general elections in Québec.

·       President and First Lady Biden to visit Puerto Rico to inspect the damage from Hurricane Fiona.

·       The US Supreme Court opens its fall term.  They will hear cases this session dealing with voting rights, the independence of state legislatures, and environmental cases.

·       The US Senate and House of Representatives are out of session until after the midterm elections on November 8th.  Both chambers are expected to return November 14th. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Philip Jefferson gives a speech on “Technology-Enabled Disruption: Lessons from the Pandemic and the Path Ahead” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       US ISM’s Manufacturing PMI/Prices/New Orders/Manufacturing Employment Reports (September)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (September), FX Reserves (August), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), Balance of Trade (September)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (August)

·       Colombia Exports (August), Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (September)

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Senior Officials are expected to meet through October 5th in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

·       ASEAN Senior Economic Officials Meeting through October 5th in Phnom Penh, Cambodia

·       Meeting of the ASEAN Coordinating Council Working Meeting

·       Australia celebrates Labor Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

·       Japan Tokyo CPIs (September)

·       Indonesia Inflation Data (September)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Australia Building Permits (August), Home Loans (August), Building Permits (August), Ai Group Manufacturing Index (September)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (September), Wholesale Prices (September)

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron are expected to meet and have a working dinner in Berlin (if Chancellor Scholz has recovered from COVID in time).

·       The European Parliament holds its first October plenary session through October 6th.

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. They will discuss the macroeconomic situation in the Euro area and policy responses to high energy prices as well as inflationary pressures.  ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta will participate.

·       Russia’s lower parliament expected to ratify President Putin’s annexation of Ukrainian territories.

·       Germany celebrates Unification Day – 32 years since East and West Germany were reunited.

·       Bank of England’s Catherine Mann will be a panelist at the CDB Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Initiative.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       UK Nationwide Housing Prices (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       France Budget Balance (August), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (September), procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraq celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (September), PPIs (September), Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Qatar GDP Growth Rate (Q2)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·      South Africa hosts Africa Oil Week in Cape Town.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank PMI (September)

·       South Africa Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Angola FX Reserves (September)

 

Tuesday, October 4, 2022:

Global

·       The Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur (Day of Atonement) commences.

·       The Nobel Prize Committee announces the Prize for Physics in Stockholm, Sweden.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US’s NASA and SpaceX plan to launch the 5th crewed mission to the International Space Station from Kennedy Space Center in Florida.  If weather or other reasons do not permit launch today, NASA will seek to launch on Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Redbook (October), JOLTs Job Openings (August), Factory Orders (August), LMI Logistics Managers Index Current

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (September)

·       Colombia Monetary Policy Minutes

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI (September), Jibun Bank Composite PMI (September)

·       Australia central bank (RBA) interest rate decision (likely 50 bps), RBA Financial Stability Review and Chart Pack, Commodity Prices (September), S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (September), Retail Sales (August)

·       Singapore G&P Global PMI (September)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (September)

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council  (Ecofin) meets to discuss the economic situation and high energy prices.  It will also approve conclusions on climate finance ahead of the COP 27 meeting in Egypt in November.

·       Russia’s Upper Chamber of Parliament expected to approve the annexation of Ukrainian territories.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in the ECOFIN meeting in Luxembourg.

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives the keynote speech and participates in a panel at the FMA Supervisory Conference 2022 in Vienna, Austria.

·       Spain Unemployment Changes (September)

·       Eurozone PPI (August)

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (September)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Central Bank monetary policy report released.

·       Nigeria PMI (September)

 

Wednesday, October 5, 2022:

Global

·       OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting via videoconference.  It is expected they move to cut output.

·       The Nobel Prize Committee announces the Prize for Chemistry in Stockholm, Sweden.

·       The G-20 Civil Society Summit is held in Bali, Indonesia.

·       The G-20 Parliamentary Speakers Summit is held in Jakarta, Indonesia.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Organization for American States (OAS) holds its 52nd General Assembly in Lima, Peru. 

·       President and First Lady Biden to visit Florida to inspect the damage from Hurricane Ian.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US ADP Employment Change (September), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August), MBA Mortgage Rates and other data (September), S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (September), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI/Orders/Business Activity/New Orders/Employment (September)

·       Canada Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August), Building Permits (August)

·       Brazil S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (September)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (September)

·       El Salvador GDP (September)

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (August)

·       South Korea FX Reserves (September)

·       Australia Ai Group Construction Index (September), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (September)

·       Taiwan FX Reserves (September)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate (Q2), Current Account (Q2)

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz holds a summit with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in A Coruña (in Galicia, Spain).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting in Cyprus.

·       Germany Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August), S&P Global Services PMI (September)

·       France Industrial Production (August), S&P Global Services PMI (September)

·       Spain S&P Global Services PMI (September), Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Italy S&P Global Services PMI (September)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (September)

·       UK S&P Global Services and Composites PMIs (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Services PMI (September)

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon BLOM PMI (September)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (September)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Kenya PMIs (September)

·       Uganda PMIs (September)

·       Zambia PMIs (September)

·       Ghana PMIs (September)

  

Thursday, October 6, 2022: 

Global

·       The World Trade Organization (WTO) meets today and tomorrow in Geneva, Austria.

·       IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers a speech at Georgetown University in Washington DC outlining the agenda for the IMF’s Annual meeting which takes place next week.

·       The Nobel Prize Committee announces the Prize for Literature in Stockholm, Sweden.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives her first speech as Governor at The Peterson Institute for International Economics.  She will give present on the US economic outlook.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Mark C. Berger Workshop Series in Lexington, Kentucky.

·       US Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing Jobless Claims (4-week average)

·       Canada IVEY PMI (September)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Mexico Auto Exports/Production (September)

·       Brazil Car Production (September)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (August)

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Sri Lanka’s Parliament expected to debate a bill to amend the Constitution curtailing presidential powers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India S&P Global Composite PMI (September)

·       Japan Household Spending (August), FX Reserves (September)

·       South Korea Current Account (August)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (September), Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Australia RBA Financial Stability Review

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (September)

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Political Community (EPC meets in Prague in advance of the informal heads of state meeting Friday.

·       Norway’s government presents its 2023 budget to the Storting (Parliament)

·       Kazakhstan/s ruling Amanat Party to hold an extraordinary Party Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Spain Industrial Production (August)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMI (September), Retail Sales (August)

·       France S&P Global Construction PMI (September), Retail Sales (August)

·       Germany S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

·       Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

·       UK S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

Poland Retail Sales (August)

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (September), Business Confidence (September)

·       Turkey FX Reserves (September)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (September)

·       Uganda interest rate decision

 

Friday, October 7, 2022:

Global

·       United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s World Food Price Index (September)

·       The Nobel Prize Committee announces the Prize for Peace in Stockholm, Sweden.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Unemployment Figures (September), Consumer Credit Change (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate Figures (September)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (September)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (August)

·       Chile Inflation Figures (September), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (September)

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FX Reserves (September), Caixin Services and Composite PMIs (September)

·       Indonesia FX Reserves (September)

·       Japan Coincident Index (August), Leading Economic Index (August)

·       India FX Reserves (September)

·       Taiwan Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

·       Hong Kong FX Reserves (September)

·       Singapore FX Reserves (September)

·       Thailand FX Reserves (September)

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU holds an informal meeting of heads of state in Prague to discuss Ukraine, energy, and the economy.

·       The UK’s Office of Budget Responsibility will present their initial analysis of Prime Minister Liz Truss’s economic plan as presented out last week.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin turns 70.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Industrial Production (August)

·       France Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August), FX Reserves (September), Current Account (August)

·       UK Halifax House Price Index (September),  Mortgage Rates (September), Labor Productivity (Q2)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (September), FX Reserves (September)

·       Italy Retail Sales (August)

·       Russia Inflation Rate (September), FX Reserves (September), Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Poland FX Reserves (September)

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt FX Reserves (September)

·       Israel FX Reserves (September)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (September)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Lesotho holds elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa FX Reserves (September)

·       Ghana interest rate decision

·       Tanzania inflation figures (September)

·       Mauritius inflation figures (September)

 

Saturday, October 8, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe:

·       Political/Social Events –

·       Scotland’s National Party (SNP) annual conference is held in Aberdeen.

·       The UK expects a 24-hour strike of the national train workers – the RMT union – over jobs, pay, and working conditions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Sunday, October 9, 2022: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

China will convene the 7th Plenum of the 19th Party Congress to review preparations for the 20th Party Congress which begins October 16th.

Economic Reports/Events –

Australia Ai Group Services Index (September)

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Austria holds presidential elections.

Germany’s Lower Saxony holds state elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Uganda celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

The Global Week Ahead: August 14-21, 2022

The week ahead should be relatively quiet aside from the ongoing bloody grind of Russia’s war on Ukraine.  China has largely finished its military exercises around Taiwan, the US Congress has gone on a month-long holiday, and most of Europe is also on holiday, albeit under a scorching sun.  The real action this week will be on the economic front as markets await major economic reports globally.  Both the US and China report retail sales and industrial production data.  Japan reports inflation figures.  And we will see the Federal Reserve Board release minutes from the last meeting, giving us a little better insight into their thinking about future rate rises.  Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

 

Sunday, 14 August 2022:

Global

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Bachelet visits Bangladesh to discuss human rights and the physical condition of more than 900,000 Rohingya Muslims who have fled genocide in Myanmar.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing to report.

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

China and Thailand begin joint Air Force exercise “Falcon Strike 2022”

Pakistan celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

 (July), retail sales (July), unemployment rate (July)

Japan GDP (Q2), private consumption (Q2), capital expenditure (Q2)

Thailand GDP (Q2)

Indonesia balance of trade/exports/imports (July)

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing to report.

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing to report.

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events

Nothing to report. 

Monday, 15 August 2022:

Global

The UN Security Council’s Panel of Experts is scheduled to release its final report on sanctions on Mali. The sanctions – brought by the UN, US, the EU, and a number of African nations -  were put in place following a coup in January by the ruling junta to avoid elections.  The junta has agreed to elections in 2024 that will be monitored by the UN and Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas).

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

US and Turkish officials meet in Washington to discuss the sale of modernization kits for F-16 fighter jets for Turkey.

The one-year anniversary of the Taliban entering Kabul and the former Afghan government collapsing.

Peru’s government to define the 2022-2023 legislative agenda.

The US Congress is in recess until September.

President Biden is on holiday with his family.

LA Tech Week begins in Los Angeles, California and will feature remarks by many of the leading US tech CEOs.

Economic Reports/Events –

US New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (August), NAHB Housing Market Index (August)

Canada new motor vehicle sales (June), manufacturing sales (June), wholesale sales (June)

Brazil inflation rate (July), Central Bank Focus Market readout, IBC-BR economic activity (June)

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumino Kishada is expected to present to the Japanese Diet a stimulus package to address the country’s rising food and energy costs.

2022 Business Advantage Papua New Guinea Investment Conference held in Brisbane, Australia.

APEC holds 3rd Senior Officials Meeting (SOM#) and related meetings.

India celebrates its 75th Independence Day ending British rule.

Japan marks the 77th anniversary of its surrender to Allied Forces, ending World War II in the Pacific.

South Korea celebrates Liberation Day and large-scale demonstrations are expected in Seoul.

Economic Reports/Events –

China Peoples Bank of China sets MLF rate, retail sales (July)  house price index (July)

Japan industrialized production (June), capacity utilization (June)

Australia central bank minutes

Philippines overseas remittances (June)

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

The Leaders of Finland, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden will hold a Nordic Council meeting in Oslo, Sweden. 

The self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic expected to begin trials of British, Swedish, and Croatian citizens captured fighting on behalf of Ukraine.

UK barristers are likely to strike over legal aid funding.

UK union members at Liverpool’s container ports expected to strike over pay and work conditions.

Assumption Day (a Roman Catholic Feast Day) and a public holiday in France, Italy, and Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

Germany wholesale prices (July)

Russia expected to convert depositary receipts of Russian companies on foreign exchanges into shares on the Russian Stock Exchange.

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Iran faces a deadline to respond to an EU proposal for reviving the 2015 nuclear accords.

Economic Reports/Events –

Saudi Arabia inflation rate (July)

Turkey budget balance (July), auto production (July)

Israel CPIs (July)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nigeria inflation report (July)

Botswana inflation report (July)

 

Tuesday, 16 August 2022:

Global

Nothing significant to report

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Wyoming and Alaska hold primary elections (Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) faces a tough primary challenge).  And Alaska holds a special election to fill the seat left open by the death of Representative Don Young (R-AK)

Brazil’s political candidates are allowed starting today to run television and internet campaign ads.

Costa Rica and Ecuador to begin negotiations on a free trade deal.

Caribbean leaders will gather in the Bahamas to discuss the regions approach to the COP27 Climate Talks in Egypt being held in November.

Elvis Presley died 45 years ago this day.

Economic Reports/Events –

US housing starts (July), building permits (July), industrial production (July), manufacturing production (July), Redbook (August), capacity utilization (July)

Canada housing starts (July), inflation rate (July), CPIs (July)

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

 

Economic Reports/Events –

Japan Tertiary Industry Index (June), Reuters Tankan Index (July), machinery orders (June)

India WPI food/fuel/manufacturing/inflation (July), balance of trade/imports/exports (July)

Australia wage prices (Q2), Westpac Leading Index (July), wage price index (Q2)

Indonesia property price index (Q2)

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

The Nordic Council (see above/yesterday) will meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Oslo, Sweden.

 

Economic Reports/Events –

Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)

UK unemployment rate (June), claimant count change (July), average earnings (June), labour productivity (Q2)

Czech Republic PPIs (July)

Poland inflation figures (July)

Romania’s central bank minutes (July0

Eurozone balance of trade (June), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Israel GDP (Q2)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Seychelles interest rate decision

South Africa non-farm payrolls, South African Reserve Bank quarterly bulletin for Q1

 

Wednesday, 17 August 2022:

Global

Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Former Vice President Mike Pence speaks in New Hampshire at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics “Politics & Eggs” event – a prelude to a likely presidential run.

Economic Reports/Events –

US Federal Reserve Board minutes,  30-year mortgage rate (August), retail sales (July), business inventories (June)

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Indonesia celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

Japan balance of trade/exports/imports (July), machinery orders (July)

Australia unemployment rate (July), participation rate (July)

Singapore export (July), NODX (July)

Hong Kong unemployment rate (July)

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg meets with Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti to discuss rising tensions with Serbia.  He then meets with Serbian President Alexandr Vucic tomorrow (Thursday).

Economic Reports/Events –

UK inflation rate (July), retail price index (July), PPIs (July)

Eurozone employment change, GDP growth rate (Q2)

Russia PPIs (July)

Hungary GDP (Q2)

Poland GDP (Q2)

Romania GDP (Q2)

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing to report.

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

42nd Southern African Development Community Summit of the Heads of State and Government in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo

Guinea’s opposition political coalition to launch country-wide protests against the ruling military junta.

Kenyan deadline to announce recent presidential election results.

Economic Reports/Events –

South Africa retail sales (June)

Zambia central bank interest rate decision

Namibia central bank interest rate decision

Ghana PPIs (July)

 

Thursday, 18 August 2022:

Global

Nothing significant to report

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

NASA’s Artimis 1 Moon Mission rocket will be rolled into place for lift-off at Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

Economic Reports/Events –

US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index/Fed CAPEX Index (August), initial jobless claims (August), existing home sales (July), CB Leading index (July), 30-year TIPS Auction

Canada PPIs (July)

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Indonesia current account (Q2), motorbike sales (July)

Philippines central bank meeting

Sri Lanka central bank meeting

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

Spain balance of trade (June)

Eurozone CPIs (July), inflation rate (July), construction output (June)

Norway central bank interest rate decision.

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Turkey central bank interest rate decision, FX reserves (August)

 Egypt merchandise trade balance (June)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

South Africa building permits (June)

  

Friday, 19 August 2022:

Global

Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

US Trade Representative’s deadline to submit a request to continue August 23, 2018 China section 301 tariff action.

The US Energy Association will hold a briefing on nuclear power and how they see the approximately $30 billion in funding being provided by the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act will help rebuild the US’ nuclear power industry.

Brazil’s Petrobas shareholders’ meeting to evaluate candidates for the board of directors.

Economic Reports/Events –

Canada retail sales (June)

Mexico retail sales (June)

Argentina's leading indicator (July)

Argentina and the Inter-American Development Bank to sign an agreement on an $80 million loan to small- to medium-sized enterprises.

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Japan inflation rate (July)

Indonesia loan growth (July)

India FX reserves (August)

Malaysia exports/imports/balance of trade (July)

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Montenegro’s Parliament is expected to hold a no-confidence vote against the minority government after it signed a an agreement with the Serbia Orthodox Church – a measure strongly opposed by human rights groups and pro-western Montenegran political parties.

The UK is bracing for 10,000 rail and bus drivers to go on strike, mostly in the London area.

Economic Reports/Events –

UK retail sales (July), public sector net borrowing (July)

Eurozone current account (June)

Poland gross wages (July), industrial production (July)

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

South Africa Bloomberg monthly economic survey

Nigeria PSCE (July), M2 money supply (July)

 

 

Saturday, 20 August 2022:

Global

Nothing significant to report

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

Argentina leading indicator (July)

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Hungary celebrates State Foundation Day, a public holiday.

The UK braces for yet more strikes from rail and transportation workers over pay and work conditions.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

Israel forward average CPI forecasts (July)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

  

Sunday, 21 August 2022:

Global

Nothing significant to report

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Hawaii celebrates Statehood Day, making it the 50th state of the union in 1959.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

 

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

China loan prime rate (1Y & 5Y)

 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz begins a state visit to Canada.

The UK will see a one-day strke by container port workers at Felixstowe.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

Read More
Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

The Global Week Ahead: June 25 - July 2, 2022

A Seminal Moment in NATO’s History; Central Bankers Gather to Discuss… Central Banking.  And Will We See China’s President Xi Travel to Hong Kong for the 25th Anniversary of the Handover?

June 25 - July 2, 2022

NATO will hold its annual summit in Spain this week – arguably the most important summit held in decades – as it will be closely watched to see how well the alliance holds together in supporting Ukraine’s efforts to defeat Russia.  This comes after a two-day G-7 meeting in Germany where much of the political and economic coordination will be laid out for dealing with Russia’s aggression going forward.

Also this week, President Xi is expected to travel to Hong Kong for the anniversary of Hong Kong’s handover to China as well as the inauguration of John Lee as the new Administrator of the island (but this may be canceled as two of Lee’s top aides came down with COVID).  If Xi does make the trip, it will be the first time he has left the mainland since January 2020.

Finally, this is going to be a big week for central bankers as many of them gather for the European Central Bank’s annual Forum on Central Banking.  In particular, we will be closely watching a panel on Thursday where ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Bank for International Settlements General Manager Agustín Carstens, and Fed Chair Jay Powell will appear together to discuss policy coordination.  Here is what we are keeping our eyes on this coming week:

Sunday, June 26, 2022:

Global

  • The G-7 Summit is to be held at the Elmau Schloss (Bavarian Alps, Germany.  It is expected that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend either in person or virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • President Biden is in Europe this week to attend the G-7 meeting in Germany and the NATO Summit in Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • Cambodia to announce final results of Cambodia’s National Election Committee’s count of June 5th communal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China industrial profits figures (May)

  • Japan’s Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions released

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • Italy to hold a second round of local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Russia expected to default on its foreign debt – the first time the country has done so since 1918.  Russia was expected to pay $100 million in dollars and euros to bondholders.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • The UN Security Council meets to discuss its mission in South Sudan.

  • In a ceremony in Brussels, the Belgium government plans to return a tooth of assassinated former Congolese Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba to his family.

  • The East African Community meets to discuss a potential joint force to deal with security issues in the Eastern Republic of the Congo.

Economic Reports/Events

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Monday, June 27, 2022:

Global

  • The UN Ocean Conference will be held in Lisbon, Portugal.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The US Congress is out of session for the July 4th holiday and returns on July 11.

  • The Wall Street Journal holds a Global Food Forum to discuss a wide variety of topics, particularly the growing food security crisis globally as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US durable goods orders (May), non-defense goods (May), Pending Home Sales (May), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)

  • Brazil central bank minutes

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Coincident Index (Apr), Leading Economic Index (Apr)

  • Thailand exports/imports (May)

  • Hong Kong Exports/Imports/Trade Balance (May)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council meet to adopt gas storage regulations.

  • The Wimbledon tennis tournament begins.  All Russian players have been banned from playing.

  • UK lawyers who are members of the Criminal Bar Association are expected to go on strike over disputes over funding of criminal defense trials.

Economic Reports/Events –

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

  • Israel’s Knesset can officially dissolve starting on this day.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing of significance to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Tuesday, June 28, 2022:

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The US will see election primaries and run-off races in Colorado, New York, Illinois, Utah, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Mississippi.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US goods trade balance (May), wholesale and retail inventories (May), Redbook (Jun), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (Apr), CB Consumer Confidence (Jun), Richmond Fed manufacturing index (Jun), Dallas Fed Services Index (Jun)

  • Brazil banking lending (Mar)

  • Argentina's current account (Q1)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Korea's consumer confidence (Jun)

  • Japan retail sales (May)

  • Australia retail sales (May)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • EU Environmental Council meets to reach a consensus on deforestation.

  • France’s newly-elected National Assembly holds its first session.

  • Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is expected to lay out her detailed plan for a second independence referendum.

  • Ukraine celebrates Constitution Day marking the anniversary of the signing of its constitution in 1996.

  • The Parliamentary Speaker of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republican to speak before Russia’s Parliament (Duma).

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Jun)

  • France Consumer Confidence (Jun)

  • Italy Industrial Sales (Apr) 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia private bank lending (May) 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Seychelles interest rate decision

  • South Africa non-farm payrolls, South African Reserve Bank quarterly bulletin for Q1 

Wednesday, June 29, 2022:

Global

Americas

Political/Social Events –

The UN Human Rights Council meets to discuss human rights in Venezuela.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell to speak (virtually) on a panel with ECB President Lagarde as part of the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal (see a link to the event above).

  • US GDP (Q1), Core PCE Prices (Q1), retail consumer spending (Q1), MBA mortgage applications (Jun)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China NBS manufacturing PMIs (Jun)

  • Japan consumer confidence (Jun), industrial production (May)

  • South Korea's industrial production (May), retail sales (May), construction output (May), manufacturing production (May)

  • Vietnam GDP (Q2), CPI (Jun), Retail Sales (Jun), Industrial Output (Jun), Exports/Imports/Trade Balance (Jun)

  • Thailand Value Added Production (May)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • The Committee on Climate Change in the UK to release their 2022 progress report to Parliament which will assess the UK’s chances of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

  • Turkmenistan to host Caspian Summit in Ashgabat.  Russian President Putin is expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone economic confidence (Jun), Industrial Confidence (Jun), Services Confidence (Jun)

  • Germany CPIs (Jun)

  • Spain retail sales (May), CPI (Jun), business confidence (Jun)

  • Russia GDP (May), unemployment rate (May), real wage growth (Apr), business confidence (Apr), industrial production (May), retail sales (May) 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey's economic confidence (Jun)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa's consumer confidence (Q2)

 

Thursday, June 30, 2022:

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US initial jobless claims (Jun), Chicago PMI (Jun), personal income & spending figures (May), PCE Price Index (May)

  • Canada GDP (Apr), CFIB business barometer (Jun)

  • Brazil's unemployment rate (May), nominal budget balance (May)

  • Argentina economic activity

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo to meet with Russian President Putin in Moscow.

  • Philippine President-elect Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. to be sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China NBS PMI Composite (Jun)

  • Japan housing starts (May), construction orders (May), unemployment rate (May), CPIs (Jun), Tankan indexes (Q2)

  • Hong Kong retail sales (May)

  • Sri Lanka CPI (Jun)

  • South Korea's industrial production (May), Service Industry Output (May), exports/imports/balance of trade (Jun)

  • India infrastructure output (May), external debt (Q1)

  • Indonesia S&P global manufacturing PMI (Jun) 

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • Russian President Putin to attend 9th Russia-Belarus Forum in Grodno, Belarus.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Germany Import Price Index (May), Retail Sales (May), Unemployment figures (Jun)

  • Italy PPIs (May), Unemployment figures (Jun)

  • Spain's current account balance (Apr)

  • France CPIs (Jun), PPIs (Jun)

  • UK current account (Q1), GDP (Q1), business investment (Q1)

  • Swedish interest rate decision

  • Eurozone unemployment rate (May) 

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia hosts OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting

  • Turkey balance of trade (May), MPC meeting summary, FX reserves (Jun)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Sudan’s pro-democracy parties to hold a March of Millions to protest against the military junta.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa's money supply, private credit, PPIs, trade balance, and budget balance (all for May)

  • Kenya inflation figures (Jun)

  • Kenya GDP (Q1)

  • Mauritius  GDP (Q1)

  • Namibia GDP (Q1), money supply (May)

  • Botswana GDP (Q1)

  • Zambia GDP (Q1), trade balance (May)

 

Friday, July 1, 2022:

Global

  • Brazil takes over the presidency of the UN Security Council in July.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Canada Day is celebrated marking the formation of the Union of the British North American provinces in 1868.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US S&P manufacturing PMIs (Jun), ISM manufacturing prices (Jun), construction spending (May)

  • Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (Jun), industrial production (May), PPIs (May), the balance of trade (Jun)

  • Mexico business confidence (Jun), FX reserves (May) 

Asia:

  • Political/Social Events –

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping may visit Hong Kong for the 25th anniversary of the handover from the UK to China as well as attend John Lee’s inauguration as chief executive.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Caixin PMI (Jun)

  • Taiwan Markit PMI (Jun)

  • Thailand Markit PMI (Jun)

  • Malaysia Markit PMI (Jun)

  • Vietnam Market PMI (Jun)

  • Philippines Markit PMI (Jun)

  • India Markit PMI (Jun), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (Jun)

  • Indonesia Markit PMI (Jun), FX Reserves (Jun)

  • South Korea Exports/Imports/Trade Balance (June), Markit PMI (Jun)

  • Australia commodity prices (Jun)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • The Czech Republic assumes the six-month presidency of the EU.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Spain S&P Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

  • Italy S&P Manufacturing PMI (Jun), inflation figures (Jun)

  • France S&P Manufacturing PMI (Jun), budget balance (May)

  • Germany S&P/BME Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

  • Eurozone S&P Manufacturing PMI (Jun), CPI estimate (Jun)

  • Russia S&P manufacturing PMIs (Jun)

  • UK nationwide housing prices (Jun), mortgage approvals (May), BoE consumer credit (May), S&P/CIPS manufacturing PMIs (Jun)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMIs (Jun) 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa manufacturing PMI (Jun)

  • Nigeria PMI (Jun)

 

Saturday, July 2, 2022:

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • UFO Day takes place in Roswell, New Mexico.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China industrial profits (May)

  • Japan Bank of Japan summary of opinions

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • South Africa’s African National Congress Party to hold elective provisional conference.

  • Mozambique celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Read More
Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

Global Calendar May 31 - June 5, 2022

This is Fulcrum Macro Advisors weekly calendar of key political and economic events we are watching in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

This week’s report is shortened due to the long holiday weekend in the United States.  We are watching in particular this week the OPEC+ meeting being held in Saudi Arabia as well as Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s side meetings with officials in Bahrain.  We will learn if Wikileaks founder Julian Assange is extradited or not.  Also this week, the US Federal Reserve releases their “Beige Book” and a host of employment and inflation figures are released around the world. 

Here is what else we are watching politically and economically around the world this coming week:

Tuesday, May 31, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

  • US S&P/Case Shiller Home Price (Mar); Chicago PMI (May); CB Consumer Confidence (May); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)

  • Canada GDP rate (Q1)

  • Brazil Unemployment Rate (Apr); Budget Balance (Apr)

  • Mexico unemployment figures (Apr)

Asia:

  • China NBS Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing PMIs (May); NBS General PMIs (May)

  • India GDP (Q1);  Infrastructure Rate (Apr); Government Budget Value (Apr); Budget Balance (Apr)

  • Japan Consumer Confidence (May); Housing Starts (Apr); Construction Orders (Apr)

  • Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs (May); Company Gross Profits (Q1); Building Permits (Apr); Business Inventories (Q1); Current Account (Q1); Private House Approvals (Apr); Private Sector Credit (Apr)

Europe:

  • German Unemployment figures (Apr)

  • France Inflation Rate (May); GDP (Q1); PPIs (Apr); Household Consumption (Apr)

  • Italy GDP figures (Q1); Inflation figures (May)

  • Spain Current Account (Mar)

  • UK Mortgage Lending/Approvals (Apr); BoE Consumer Credit (Apr)

  • Russia Central Bank Financial Stability Review

  • Eurozone Inflation figures (May)

Middle East:

  • Turkey GDP (Q1); Balance of Trade (Q1)

Africa:

  • South Africa Balance of Trade (Apr); Private Sector Credit figures (Apr); Unemployment figures (Q1)

  • Kenya inflation figures (May)

  • Uganda inflation figures (May)

  

Wednesday, June 1, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

  • US Federal Reserve Beige Book, S&P Manufacturing PMIs (May),  MBA Mortgage figures (May)

  • Mexico Business Confidence (May), FX Reserves (Apr), Global Manufacturing

  • Brazil S&P Manufacturing PMIs (May), Balance of Trade (May)

  • Canada S&P Manufacturing PMIs (May)

Asia:

  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)

  • India S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs (May)

  • South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

  • Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMIs (May)

  • Australia GDP figures (Q1), Commodity Prices (May)

Europe:

  • Eurozone S&P Manufacturing PMIs (May), Unemployment Rate (May)

  • Germany S&P Manufacturing PMIs (May), Retail Sales (Apr)

  • Russia GDP (Apr-May), S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs (May), Industrial Production (Apr), Real Wage Growth (Apr)

  • UK S&P Manufacturing PMIs (May), Nationwide Housing Prices (May)

  • France S&P Manufacturing PMIs (May), Budget Balance (Apr)

  • Spain S&P Manufacturing PMIs (May)

  • Italy S&P Manufacturing PMIs (May), Unemployment numbers (Apr)

Middle East:

  • Turkey manufacturing PMIs (May)

Africa:

  • Nigeria’s PMIs (May)

  • South Africa vehicle sales (May), Manufacturing PMIs (May)

  

Thursday, June 2, 2022

Political/Social Events:

  • OPEC+ meeting to discuss pricing and production.

  • EU General Affairs Council (Cohesion) to discuss internal EU alignment issues.

  • EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Transport) meeting.

  • ASEAN Regional Forum Security Policy Conference to be held in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

  • The UK holds the Trooping of the Colour military parade to celebrate Queen Elizabeth’s 96th birthday.

  • Italy celebrates “Festa della Repubblica” commemorating the country forming the first post-World War II government.

Economic Reports/Events:

Global:

OPEC+ Ministerial meetings begin, Saudi Arabia.

Americas:

  • US employment numbers (May), Non-Farm Productivity (May), Factory Orders (Apr), Crude Oil Import/Refinery figures (May)

  • Canada Building Permits (Apr)

  • Brazil inflation figures (May), GDP figures (Q1), PPIs (Apr)

  • Mexico Consumer Confidence (May)

  • Asia:

  • India Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (May)

  • Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May), Inflation Rate figures (May)

  • South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May), Inflation Rate (May)

  • Australia S&P Global Services PMIs (May)balance of trade, retail sales, exports, imports (all Apr), Construction Index (May)

Europe:

  • Spain Unemployment figures (May)

Middle East:

  • No significant reports.

Africa:

  • South Africa electricity production and consumption figures (Apr)

 

 

Friday, June 3, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

o   EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Luxembourg to discuss the state of play of WTO reform and EU-US trade relations.

o   EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Telecommunications) meet to discuss the EU’s digital transition (AI, digital identity regulation, and Data Act).

o   China and Taiwan each hold an annual Dragon Boat Racing Festival.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

  • US Unemployment rate/non-farm payrolls/average hourly earnings/participation rate (May)

  • Brazil Industrial Production (Apr), S&P Global Services and Composites PMIs (May), S&P Global Services and Composites PMIs (May)

  • Canada Labor Productivity (Q1)

Asia:

  • Japan Jibun Bank Services and Composite PMIs (May)

  • Australia Home Loans/Lending (Apr)

  • India S&P Global Services PMIs (May), FX Reserves (May)

Europe:

  • Eurozone S&P Global Services and Composites PMIs (May), Retail Sales (Apr)

  • Germany Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (Apr), Current Account (Apr), S&P Global Services and Composites PMIs (May)

  • Russia S&P Global Services PMIs (May), Business Confidence (May)

  • France Industrial Production (Apr), Retail Sales (Apr)

  • Spain S&P Global Services and Composites PMIs (May)

  • Italy S&P Global Services and Composites PMIs (May)

  • France S&P Global Services and Composites PMIs (May)

Middle East:

  • Turkey PPIs (May), Inflation Rate (May)

Africa:

  • Mozambique PMIs (May)

  • South Africa PMIs (May)

  • Ghana PMIs (May)

 

Saturday, June 4, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

Economic Reports/Events:

  • Nothing of significance to report.

 

Sunday, June 5, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

  • Pentecost is celebrated by Western Christian Churches.

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

  • Brazil S&P Global Services and Composites PMIs (May)

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

Global Calendar May 15 - 22, 2022

This is Fulcrum Macro Advisors’ weekly calendar of key political and economic events we are watching in the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine’s continues to dominate geopolitical and geoeconomics events this coming week.  We expect the historic formal announcement from both Sweden and Finland requesting NATO membership.  The EU is expected to continue pushing forward with new sanctions on Russia as well as announce new rules around Russia natural gas imports.  Additionally, the US will hold a Ministerial Level meeting in New York Tuesday to discuss growing global food security issues as the US Senate is expected to approve a $40 billion military and economic aid package to Ukraine. 


Later in the week, President Biden heads to South Korea and then to Japan where he is expected to unveil his long-awaited Indo Pacific Economic Framework. 

Economically, we will be watching on Tuesday newly-reconfirmed US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s speech at the Wall Street Journal’s “Future of Everything” Conference as well as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday, as well.

Here is what else we are watching politically and economically around the world this coming week:

Sunday, May 15, 2022

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to report.

 

Monday, May 16, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

  • US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler to speak at the FINRA 2022 Annual Conference in Washington DC where he is expected to address the SEC’s agenda and crypto regulation.

  • US NY Empire State Manufacturing Sales (Mar)

  • Canada Housing Starts (Apr), Manufacturing Sales (Mar), Wholesale Sales (Mar)

  • Brazil Central Bank Focus Market Readout, I(BC-Br Economic Activity (Mar)

Asia:

  • China Industrial Production (Apr), Retail Sales (Apr), Unemployment rate (Apr)

  • Japan PPIs, Machine Tool Orders (Apr),

  • Europe:

  • Germany Whole Prices (Apr)

  • UK Bank of England Monetary Policy Report Hearings

  • Eurozone Balance of Trade (Mar)

  • European Commission Spring Forecasts

Middle East:

  • Saudi Arabia inflation rates (Apr), Wholesale Prices (Apr)

  • Turkey Current Account (Apr), Budget Balance (Apr)

Africa:

  • Nigeria reports inflation figures (Apr)

 

Tuesday, May 17, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

  • EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) will meet to discuss the situation in Ukraine and concurrently hold a meeting of the European Defense Agency.

  • Finnish President Sauli Niinisto to visit Sweden to discuss both countries application to NATO and mutual security concerns.

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to participate in “Ukraine 30. Digitalization Forum”

  • Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari to visit US for meetings with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and to attend global food security meeting in New York.

  • The corruption trial of former South African President Jacob Zuma continues.

  • The United Nations hosts the 54th Conference of Africa Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development in Dakar, Senegal.

  • US Congressional Primaries are being held in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. 

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

  • Federal Reserve Board Chair Powell to give a speech at Wall Street Journal’s “Future of Everything” Conference in New York City and online.

  • US Retail Sales (Apr), Industrial Production (Apr), Manufacturing Production (Apr), Business Inventories (Mar), Retail Inventories (Mar), NAHB Housing Market Index (May)

Asia:

  • Australia Royal Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes

  • India WPI for Food (Apr), Manufacturing (Apr), Fuel (Apr), and Inflation (Apr),

  • Indonesia Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (Apr)

  • Japan Tertiary Industry Index (Mar), GDP Growth Rate figures, GDP Capital Expenditures (Q1), Price Index (Q1), Reuters Tankan Index (May),

  • Malaysian Central Bank meeting

Europe:

Middle East:

  • Nothing of significance to report.

Africa:

  • South Africa Business Confidence (Apr).

 

Wednesday, May 18, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

 Economic Reports/Events: 

Global:

  • G-7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Germany.

Americas:

  • US MBA reports mortgage applications, 30-Mortgage Rate, Mortgage Refinance Index, Purchase Index (all for May); Housing Starts and Building Permits (Apr); EIA reports Crude Oil Stocks as well as Gasoline Stocks, Crude Oil Imports, Refinery Crude runs

  • Canada inflation rate figures (Apr)

Asia:

  • Australia Westpac Leading Index (Apr), Wage Price Index figures

  • China House Price Index (Apr)

  • Japan Industrial Production (Mar), Capacity Utilization (Mar), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (all for Apr), Machinery Orders (Mar)

Europe:

  • ECB holds a non-Monetary Policy Meeting

  • Russia GDP Growth Rate ((Q1)

  • UK Inflation figures (Apr), PPIs (Apr) Retail Price Index (Apr)

  • Eurozone Inflation Rate Figures (Apr)

Middle East:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

  • South Africa Inflation rate figures (Apr), Retail Sales (Apr)

  • Zambia Central Bank interest rate decision

  • Ghana PPIs (Apr)

 

Thursday, May 19, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

Economic Reports/Events: 

Americas:

  • US Initial Jobless Claims (May), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May), Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions (May) Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (May), Philadelphia Fed Employment (May); US Existing Home Sales (Apr), CB Leading Index (Apr)

  • Canada Raw Material Prices (Apr), New Housing Price Index (Apr), PPIs (Apr)

  • Argentina Balance of Trade (Apr), Economic Activity (Mar), Leading Indicators (Apr)

Asia:

  • Australia Unemployment Rate/Full-Time Employment change figures (Apr); Current Account (Mar)

  • Japan Inflation Rate Figures (Apr)

  • South Korea PPIs (Apr)

Europe:

  • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

  • Eurozone Current Account (Mar), Construction Output (Mar)

  • Italy Current Account (Mar)

  • UK CBI Industrial Trend Orders (Mar), Gfk Consumer Confidence (May)

Middle East:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

  • South Africa Central Bank Interest Rate Decision,  Building Permits (Mar)

 

Friday,  May 20, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

  • President Biden arrives in South Korea for three-day summit.

  • Foreign Ministers from Council of Europe members states to meet in Turin, Italy to discuss mutual response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

  • EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) meets in Brussels.

  • Japan expected to announce bank on exports of hi-tech goods to Russia.

  • Deadline for French candidates to declare their intention to run for France’s Parliament. 

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

  • US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (May)

  • Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (Apr)

  • Canada ADP Employment Change (Mar)

Asia:

  • China Loan Prime Rate (1Y and 5Y)

  • Indonesia Current Account (Q1)

  • India FX Reserves (May)

Europe:

  • Eurozone Consumer Confidence (May)

  • Germany PPI’s (Apr)

  • UK Retail Sales figures (Apr)

  • Italy Construction Output (Mar)

Middle East:

  • Turkey Consumer Confidence (May), FX Reserves (May)

Africa:

  • South Africa expecting S&P Global to issue credit assessment.

 

Saturday, May 21, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

  • Australia holds Federal Elections.

 

Sunday, May 22, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

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