The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

November 5 - 12, 2023

This week, markets will focus heavily on the APEC Summit in San Francisco, California.  It begins at the end of the week, and President Biden will have a bilateral side meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.  While no significant diplomatic or trade breakthroughs are expected to come from the meeting, it will be seen by markets as further solidification of the "floor" that is being built under U.S.-China relations, which have been in a spiral for several years.   But we will also be watching to see if rumored diplomatic meetings begin this week, as well, between U.S. and Chinese diplomats on a nuclear arms control agreement.

The Israeli-Gaza War continues to grip the attention of the world, and it will be the focus of numerous other meetings around the world this week.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be in Seoul, South Korea, and Japan for the G7 Foreign Ministers meeting, and then India for the India-US 2+2 meetings (with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin), where the situation in Gaza will be a primary focus as well as the ongoing Ukraine War.   We would also note that an emergency meeting of the Arab League will take place later this week at the request of the Palestinian Authority to find a way to bring peace.

The European Union will release a report this week assessing the status of several nations seeking E.U. membership, most notably Ukraine.  The report will likely recommend moving forward with Ukrainian integration into the EU.

In the U.S., Tuesday will see several states holding elections, most notably in Virginia, where Virginia Governor Glenn Younkin seeks to win Republican control of the State Senate.  Many observers believe that if Younkin's efforts are successful – entirely flipping Virginia from being a completely Democratic-controlled state to a completely Republican state at the governor's, Lt. Governors, Attorney Generals, Virginia State House of Delegates, and the State Senate – we may see him move to jump into the Presidential campaign.  All this happens as current Republican presidential candidates gather in Miami for the 3rd presidential debates.

On the global economic radar screen, markets will be watching China inflation data being released Thursday, along with significant data releases from Japan and meeting minutes from the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and several other central banks.  The U.S. is light on economic data this week, but we will see several Fed Governors giving significant speeches on the economic outlook.  Other leading central bankers – including ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, along with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda – will be speaking at various conferences this week, as well.

 Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, November 5, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • In the US, Daylight Savings Time ends.  Enjoy your extra hour of sleep!

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Moldova holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt S&P Global PMI (October)

  • Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (October)

  • Qatar Financial Centre PMI (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.  

 

Monday, November 6, 2023

Global

  • New York Federal Reserve Supply Chain Pressure Index is released.

  • The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) will launch the flagship report "The State of Food and Agriculture 2023", which will be held under the theme "Revealing the true cost of food to transform agri-food systems"

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The US and China may begin formal nuclear weapons arms control talks.  This has yet to be confirmed.

  • The Milken Institute hosts the 2023 Future of Health Summit through November 8 in Washington, D.C.  Leading healthcare CEOs and government officials are scheduled to speak.

  • Former U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to appear on the witness stand in his New York fraud trial.

  • The Dominican Republic celebrates Constitution Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech at Duke University on Financial Stability in Durham, North Carolina.

  • Canada Ivey PMI (October)

  • Brazil Current Account (September), FDI (September)

  • Mexico Consumer Confidence (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

  • The 32nd  Pacific Islands Forum begins in the Cook Islands. This is an intergovernmental organization that seeks to enhance cooperation between the territories and countries of Oceania.  Climate change, trade, and mutual security are the top items on the agenda.

  • Asia-Pacific Climate Week begins in Malaysia. Hosted by the government of Malaysia, the conference is a regional collaboration platform to provide region-focused efforts on energy systems and industry; cities, urban and rural settlements, infrastructure, and transport; land, ocean, food, and water; societies, health, and livelihoods; and economies.

  • The Hong Kong Monetary Authority Finance Summit begins and runs through November 7. Top global bankers and asset managers from Goldman Sachs, UBS, BlackRock, Sequoia China, and alike will be attending Hong Kong's second global financial leaders' investment summit. Participants are invited to a welcome dinner before the event's official start on Tuesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Jibun Bank PMIs (October)

  • Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (October), ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (October)

  • Indonesia GDP (Q3)

  • Thailand Inflation (October)

  • Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • European Council President Charles Michel, EU President Ursula von der Leyen, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, and European Parliament President Roberta Metsola participate in the EU Ambassadors Conference 2023.

  • EU Ministers who are responsible for space programs hold an informal meeting through November 7 in Sevilla, Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone HCOB PMIs (October)

  • Germany Factory Orders (September), HCOB PMIs (October)

  • France HCOB PMIs (September)

  • UK New Car Sales (October), S&P/CIPS Construction PMI (October)

  • Spain HCOB PMIs (October)

  • Italy HCOB PMIs (October)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NATO Secretary General, Mr. Jens Stoltenberg, will meet with Jordan’s King Abdullah in Amman, Jordan, to discuss the situation in Gaza.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Tourist Arrivals (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko and the Republic of Senegal will hear the preliminary ruling on the dissolution of his political party in the Ecowas Court of Justice on Monday.

  • Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kubela will visit South Africa on Monday. He’ll meet with foreign affairs minister Naledi Pandor in Pretoria.  South Africa has been supportive of Russia’s war efforts and has been accused on several occasions of supplying weapons to Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

 

Tuesday, November 7, 2023

Global

  • G7 Foreign Ministers will meet in Tokyo through November 8.  The Israel-Hamas War will be the dominant issue, as well as the Ukraine War.

  • The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) launches the Least Development Countries Report 2023. This annual report provides a comprehensive and authoritative source of socio-economic analysis and data on the world´s most impoverished countries.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on financial technology at the 7th Annual DC Fintech Week, Washington, D.C.

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech entitled “Using Economic Data to Understand the Economy” at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Conference: Beyond the Numbers 2023 in St. Louis, Missouri.

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook speaks on financial stability at the Central Bank of Ireland Financial System Conference 2023: Achieving Good Outcomes in an Uncertain World, Dublin 4, Ireland

  • New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams is the moderator of a hybrid discussion organized by the Economic Club of New York.

  • Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid to give opening keynote before the "Energy and the Economy: Reshuffling the Energy Deck" conference co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.  At the conference luncheon, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan will speak.

  • US Imports/Exports (September), Redbook (November 4), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (November), Total Household Debt (Q3), Consumer Credit Change (September), Used Car Prices (October), LMI Logistics Managers Index (October)

  • The Bank of Canada hosts its annual John Kuszczak Memorial Lecture. Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, CBB Copom Meeting Minutes, Bank Lending (September), Gross Debt to GDP (September), Nominal Budget Balance (September)

  • Mexico Auto Exports & Production (October)

  • Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

  • Costa Rica Inflation (October)

  • Argentina Industrial Production (September)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Elections in two Indian states (Mizoram and Chhattisgarsh) begins today with a second round of voting on November 17.  These are highly competitive races and will help shape the 2024 national general elections.

  • The 6th India-Malaysia Joint Commission Meeting is scheduled to take place in New Delhi. Representatives of the two countries will discuss  the progress of their "enhanced strategic partnership" in areas such as defense, trade and investment, health and technology. India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and his Malaysian counterpart Zambry Abdul Kadir are set to co-chair the meeting.

  • Nikkei and Swiss Business School IMD host a two-day Global Management Dialogue in Tokyo.  Business leaders – including the CEOs of Morgan Stanley, Intel, and other major corporations will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

  • Japan Household Spending (September)

  • Taiwan Inflation (October)

  • Hong Kong FX Reserves (October)

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

  • New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index

  • Philippines Inflation (October), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

  • Indonesia FX Reserves (October)

  • Malaysia Industrial Production (September)

  • Pakistan Balance of Trade (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Jordanian King Hussein in Brussels.  They will discuss the situation in Israel.

  • In Brussels, train staff will go on strike through November 9 over pay.

  • King Charles to conduct his first state opening of the UK Parliament as monarch.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Qatar GDP (Q2)

  • Israel Business Confidence (October)

  • Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Liberia holds the second round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa FX Reserves (October)

  • Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision  

 

Wednesday, November 8, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • U.S. Republican Presidential candidates gather in Miami, Florida, for the 3rd Presidential Debate.  To qualify for the debate, candidates must have at least 4 percent in two national polls or 4 percent in one national poll as well as 4 percent in at least two early primary states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina).

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives opening remarks at the Division of Research and Statistics Centennial Conference, Washington, D.C.

  • Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on the Community Reinvestment Act at the National Association of Affordable Housing Lenders (NAAHL) – Annual Policy & Practice Conference, Washington, D.C.

  • Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives closing remarks at the Division of Research and Statistics Centennial Conference, Washington, D.C.

  • New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to give a keynote before the hybrid event, "Research and Statistics at 100: A Look at the Past, Present, and Future" organized by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

  • US MBA Mortgage Market Index (November 3), Wholesale Inventories (September)

  • Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations

  • Brazil Retail Sales (September), Car Production (October)

  • Chile Inflation (October)

  • Ecuador Inflation (October)

  • Peru Balance of Trade (September)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda participates in a discussion with Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf at the Financial Times Global Boardroom conference in London.

  • China FX Reserves (October)

  • Japan Reuters Tankan Index (November), FX Reserves (October), Coincident Index (September), Leading Economic Index (September)

  • South Korea Current Account (September)

  • Australia Reserve Bank Chart Pack, Building Permits (September), Private House Approvals (September)

  • Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

  • New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations (Q4)

  • Indonesia Consumer Confidence (October)

  • Philippines FX Reserves (October)

  • Malaysia Construction Output (Q3), Unemployment (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will meet with Hungarian President Kataalin Novák at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.  Novák has said “Hungary is no rush” to ratify Sweden’s bid to join NATO, the last member to hold out.

  • The EU Commission is expected to release a report on the progress of several countries – including Ukraine – toward achieving EU membership.   This will lead to a decision by the European Commission on December 14 on which countries to grant admission.  Aside from Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova are leading candidates.

  • In the UK, a ban on the use of laughing gas will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel FX Reserves (October), Budget Balance (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Africa Investment Forum’s annual Market Days begins and runs through November 10.  It will bring together investors, business and government leaders, and heads of development finance institutions in Marrakech, Morocco

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Tanzania Inflation (October) 

 

Thursday, November 9, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates in a policy panel discussion at the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference in Washington, D.C.

  • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will participate in a fireside chat on the importance of surveys and how the survey data informs the economic outlook and policy views before the Central Bank Business Survey Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's New Orleans Branch.

  • Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to discuss virtually the "Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Fed Policy" in a Market News International webinar.

  • St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank Interim President Kathleen O'Neill Paese to speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in a moderated conversation before an event co-sponsored by the Association for Corporate Growth Kentucky, Financial Executives International Louisville, and CFA Society Louisville.

  • US Initial Jobless Claims (November 4), WASDE Report, US Crop Report

  • Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (October)

  • Paraguay Inflation (October)

  • Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The US and India will hold the US-India 2+2 Meetings in New Delhi.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with their Indian counterparts, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and Defense Secretary Rajnath Singh, to discuss the situation in Israel and Ukraine.

  • Cambodia celebrates Independence Day, a public holiday.  It commemorates the country’s independence from France in 1953.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Inflation (October), PPI (October)

  • Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, Japan Current Account (September), Bank Lending (October), Eco Watchers Survey (October)

  • Philippines GDP (Q3), Industrial Production (September)

  • New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (October)

  • Malaysia Retail Sales (September)

  • Indonesia Retail Sales (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) Development Bank in Berlin, Germany.

  • Today is the 85th  anniversary of the pogrom against the country’s Jewish population, known as Reichskristallnacht or the Night of Broken Glass. President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will give a speech in Berlin.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • The EU’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  The meeting agenda includes a review of economic governance, the economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the Implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Faculty.

  • ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives opening remarks (virtual) at the ECB Conference on Money Markets 2023 in Frankfurt, Germany,.

  • UK RICS House Price Balance (October)

  • Italy CPI (October), Inflation (October)

  • Hungary Balance of Trade (September), Budget Balance (October)

  • Romania Balance of Trade (September)

  • Slovakia Balance of Trade (September)

  • Bulgaria Balance of Trade (September)

  • Serbia Balance of Trade (September)

  • Russia FX Reserves (October)

  • Ukraine Inflation (October)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (September)

  • Turkey FX Reserves (November 3)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Gold Production (September), Mining Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September)

 

Friday, November 10, 2023

Global

Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Veterans Day is observed in the U.S. a federal holiday.

  • Panama celebrates “Primer Grito de Indepencia,” a public holiday.  It commemorates the first call for national independence in 1821.

  • The U.S. Marine Corps celebrates its birthday day, having been established by the Continental Congress in 1775.  OORAH!

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to speak before the European Central Bank Conference on Money Markets 2023 in Frankfurt, Germany.

  • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on "Economic Mobility and Challenges in the Community" before the Mobile Chamber of Commerce, Mobile, Alabama.

  • US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (November), Michigan Inflation Expectations (November)

  • Brazil Inflation (October), Business Confidence (November)

  • Mexico Industrial Production (September)

  • El Salvador PPI (October), Inflation (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • India Industrial Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September)

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Statement on Monetary Policy (Interest Rate Decision)

  • New Zealand Business NZ PMI (October)

  • Philippines FDI (August)

  • Hong Kong GDP (Q3)

  • Thailand Consumer Confidence (October)

  • Malaysia GDP (Q3), Current Account (Q3)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a fireside chat with Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf at the Financial Times' Global Boardroom 2023 in London, UK.

  • UK GDP (Q3), Business Investment (Q3), Goods Trade Balance (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Industrial Production (September), Balance of Trade (September), NIERS Monthly GDP Tracker (October)

  • Italy Industrial Production (September)

  • Greece Inflation (October), Industrial Production (September)

  • Ireland Industrial Production (September)

  • Hungary Inflation (October)

  • Poland Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

  • Slovenia Construction Output (September), Industrial Production (September)

  • Bulgaria Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

  • Kosovo Inflation (October)

  • Russia Balance of Trade (September), Inflation (October)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt Inflation (October)

  • Turkey Industrial Production (September), Unemployment (September)

  • Israel Consumer Confidence (October)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

 

Saturday, November 11, 2023

Global

  • The U.S. hosts the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Summit in San Francisco.

  • Today is Remembrance Day (also known as Poppy Day), observed by Commonwealth nations, commemorating the end of World War I.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Outstanding Loan Growth (October), Total Social Financing (October), M2 Money Supply (October), New Yuan Loans (October), Vehicle Sales (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Angola celebrates Independence Day, a public holiday.  The day celebrates the country’s victory over Portuguese military forces and the establishment of the new government in 1975.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

  

 

Sunday, November 12, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Hindus around the world celebrate Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Francis Kelly
Previous

The Global Week Ahead
Next

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead