The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

November 12 - 19, 2023

The future of US-China relations will be the primary focus this week of markets and much of the rest of the world.  As the APEC Leaders’ Summit commences in San Francisco, US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet for four hours later this week.  The range of issues is rather enormous: Trade, mutual security concerns, North Korea, the Ukraine War, the ongoing Israeli operations in Gaza, just to name a few.  While no major breakthroughs or “deliverables” are expected to emerge, just having the two leaders meet is a significant step in repairing an otherwise increasingly tattered bilateral situation between the two nations.

The situations in Gaza and Ukraine will continue to dominate leadership meetings – particularly among EU foreign ministers who will be meeting later this week.  Funding issues for Ukraine will continue to be a dominant point of discussion among Western nations, particularly as the US Congress continues to vacillate between passing a new aid package requested by President Biden or cutting back on funding. 

All of which brings us to the state of play in Congress this week.  Washington is returning to the increasingly common crisis mode over budgetary affairs as the Federal Government faces a shutdown at midnight on November 17.  Republican leadership in the House of Representatives is expected to push for a “laddered” set of Continuing Resolutions (CRs) to keep the government open as they try to pass appropriations bills – a confusing concept, but as we understand it, each time an appropriation bill gets passed by the House and Senate, an extension of the CR would be made available.  Sort of like holding a carrot on a stick in front of a donkey to get it to pull the cart.  But none of this may come to pass as a growing number of House Republicans are lining up to oppose such an approach as the civil war within the Republican Party continues to fester.

On the global economic radar screen this week, the Biden-Xi meeting may be the single biggest economic indicator of the week.  Beyond that, markets will be watching as China publishes its industrial production and retail sales reports as well as its 1-year MLF rate announcement.

Markets will also be looking at the US CPI print and retail sales report this week to see if inflation is indeed coming down and staying down. There will also be many Fed speeches this week, perhaps most notably a US Treasury Markets Conference hosted by the New York Fed.

In Europe, the UK will also be releasing inflation prints and Germany will be revealing important business sentiment surveys.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, November 12, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Finance ministers from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum will meet in San Francisco, California, ahead of the official meeting on Nov. 16-17.

  • Hindus around the world celebrate Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with the European Roundtable of Industrialist in Stuttgart, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • The Dubai Airshow begins in Dubai, UAE and runs through November 17.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Monday, November 13, 2023

Global

  • APEC Finance Ministers will meet in San Francisco, California in advance of the leaders meeting this week.

  • OPEC Monthly Report

  • The World Economic Forum Cybersecurity meeting will take place in Geneva Switzerland through November 15.

  • The Web Summit will be held in Lisbon, Portugal.  More than 1000 industry speakers are expected to address the conference, considered the biggest in the world.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • U.S. President Joe Biden hosts his Indonesian counterpart, Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, at the White House in Washington. The two leaders will discuss the clean energy transition and advancing economic prosperity, among other issues, according to the White House. Widodo said he also will repeat a call for a cease-fire and delivery of more humanitarian aid to Gaza during the meeting.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook will give introductory remarks at the Federal Reserve Board 5th Conference on Nontraditional Data, Machine Learning, and Natural Language Processing in Macroeconomics, Washington, D.C.

  • US Consumer Inflation Expectations (October), Monthly Budget Statement

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

  • Paraguay Balance of Trade (October)

  • Argentina Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) 2023 Summit is held through November 14 in San Francisco, California.

  • Asia-Pacific Climate Week begins in Malaysia.  Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will host Asia-Pacific Climate Week 2023, a meeting taking place ahead of COP28, which will be held in Johor Bahru, Malaysia, from Monday through Friday.

  • Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe is due to present the country's budget for next year.  This will be a particularly challenging budget cycle as the island nation faces stiff pressure from the IMF to stick to austere budgets to meet IMF conditions while the nation’s citizens are getting increasingly exhausted by the draconian measures put into place already.

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan PPI (October), Machine Tool Orders (October)

  • India Inflation (October)

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Acting Assistant Governor Maron Kohler will give a speech at the UBS Australasia Conference in Sydney, Australia.

  • New Zealand Composite NZI PCI (October),Services NZI PSI (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Member Catherine Mann gives a speech at Oxford University entitled “Climate and monetary policy. In particular on transition policies and their macroeconomic effects and monetary policy’ implications.”

  • Germany Current Account (September)

  • Ireland Construction PMI (October)

  • Romania Inflation (October), Current Account (September)

  • Hungary Construction Output (September), Industrial Production (September)

  • Slovakia Construction Output (September)

  • Serbia Inflation (October)

  • Poland Current Account (September), Balance of Trade (October)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Independence Day is traditionally celebrated in West Bank and Gaza by Palestinians.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Current (September), Retail Sales (September)

  • Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), Budget Balance (October), Consumer Confidence (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The Africa Tech Festival will be held in Cape Town, South Africa. Speakers are expected to include the country’s minister of digital technology and Guinea’s minister of digital economy. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Angola Inflation (October)

  • Mozambique Inflation (October) 

 

Tuesday, November 14, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • U.S Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech at the Conference on Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility (virtual)

  • US Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will testify before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Washington, D.C.

  • Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to give brief opening remarks before virtual "Conversations on Central Banking: The Unequal Burden of Inflation" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

  • Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in conversation on the economy and monetary policy before the Detroit Economic Club.

  • US Inflation (October), CPI (October), NFIB Business Optimism Index (October), Redbook (November 11)

  • Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

  • Argentina Inflation (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to meet his U.S. counterpart, Joe Biden, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in San Francisco, California.  While the meeting will be seen by markets as significant step to improving relations, no major announcements or breakthroughs are expected to come from the meeting.

  • ASEAN Defense ministers will meet in Jakarta as tensions rise over territorial disputes in the South China Sea. The bloc will also hold the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting Plus on Thursday, with eight "dialogue partner" countries, including the U.S., China, Japan, and India.

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • India WPI Food Index (October),WPI Fuel (October), WPI Inflation (October),WPI Manufacturing (October)

  • South Korea Import and Export Prices (October)

  • Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (November), NAB Business Confidence (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Liberia will hold a presidential runoff election.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Unemployment (Q3)

 

Wednesday, November 15, 2023

Global

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on 1267/1989/2253 Committee, the 1373 Committee, and the 1540 Committee. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Rupert Murdoch will step down as Chair of News Corporation.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will testify before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, Washington, D.C.

  • US PPI (October), Retail Sales (October), New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (November), MBA Mortgage Market Index (November 10), Retail Inventories (September), NOPA Crush Report

  • Canada Manufacturing Sales (September),New Motor Vehicles Sales (September),Wholesale Sales (September)

  • Paraguay Consumer Confidence (October)

  • Peru GDP (September), Unemployment (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Industrial Production (October),Retail Sales (Q3), Industrial Production (October), Unemployment (October), People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement

  • Japan GDP (Q3), Capacity Utilization (September), Industrial Production (September)

  • Australia Wage Price Index (Q3)

  • New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (October)

  • Philippines Cash Remittances (September)

  • Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • European Central Bank Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

  • Eurozone Balance of Trade (September), Industrial Production (September)

  • Germany Wholesale Prices (October)

  • France Unemployment (Q3), Inflation (October)

  • Italy Inflation (October), CPI (October)

  • UK Inflation (October), PPI (October), Retail Price Index (October)

  • Ireland Balance of Trade (September)

  • Slovakia CPI (October), Inflation (October)

  • Bulgaria Inflation (October)

  • Poland Inflation (October), Industrial Production (September)

  • Montenegro Inflation (September)

  • Serbia Building Permits (September), Current Account (September)

  • Russia GDP (Q3)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Auto Production (October), Budget Balance (October)

  • Qatar GDP (Q2)

  • Israel M1 Money Supply (October), Inflation (October),

  • Saudi Arabia Inflation (October),Wholesale Prices (October)

  • Egypt Unemployment (September)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

 

Thursday, November 16, 2023

Global

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil Pinto will hold talks in Moscow, Russia. 

  • The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will meet to vote on the “special assessment” that banks will be charged to replenish the deposit fund following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and other lenders.

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Office of Financial Research will host their eleventh annual financial stability conference through November 17. This year’s conference, Financial Stability in Times of Macroeconomic Uncertainty, will be held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Virtual attendance is also available. Panelists will discuss risks to financial stability from a range of sources including uninsured deposits, the commercial real estate market, and climate risk exposures of insurers.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook will give a speech on Global Linkages and Spillovers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Asia Economic Policy Conference – Global Linkages in a Post-Pandemic World, San Francisco, California

  • US Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will participate in a panel discussion on bank supervision and regulation at the Seventh Annual Conference of the European Systemic Risk Board (virtual).

  • US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller give a speech on Central Bank Digital Currency at the 2nd Conference on the Economics of Central Bank Digital Currency by the Bank of Canada and Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm, Sweden.

  • New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak before the in 2023 U.S. Treasury Markets Conference co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr will participate.

  • Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to give introductory remarks before hybrid 2023 Financial Stability Conference: "Financial Stability in Times of Macroeconomic Uncertainty" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

  • US Import and Exports Prices (October), Initial Jobless Claims (November 11), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (November), Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions (November), Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (November), Industrial Production (October), Capacity Utilization (October), Manufacturing Production (October), NAHB Housing Market Index (November), Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Indexes (November)

  • Canada Housing Starts (October)

  • Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (September)

  • Uruguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China House Price Index (October0

  • Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), Machinery Orders (September), Tertiary Industry Index (September)

  • Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (November), Employment (October)

  • Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Sri Lanka Manufacturing & Services PMIs (October)

  • Hong Kong Unemployment (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Qatar Inflation (October)

  • Israel GDP (Q3)

  • Turkey Financial Stability Report, FX Reserves (November 10)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Madagascar will hold presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Ethiopia Inflation (October)

  • South Africa Building Permits (September)

 

Friday, November 17, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The U.S. federal government will shut down at midnight if Congress does not approve a new budget or temporary Continuing Resolution (CR) in time.  

Economic Reports/Events –

  • San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to give closing keynote before the 33rd Frankfurt European Banking Congress.

  • Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austin Goolsbee to speak on the economy before Annual Community Bankers Symposium at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

  • US Building Permits (October), Housing Starts (October)

  • Canada PPI (October), Raw Materials Prices (October)

  • Chile GDP (Q3)

  • Argentina Balance of Trade (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo, Japan, until Nov. 20.

  • India's Madhya Pradesh state will hold assembly elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • India Bank Loan Growth(November 3), Deposit Growth (November 3)

  • New Zealand PPIs (Q3)

  • Singapore Non-Oil Exports (October), Balance of Trade (October), Current Account (Q3)

  • Malaysia GDP (Q3), Current Account (Q3)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board President Christine Lagarde will give a keynote speech at the 33rd Frankfurt European Banking Congress "Navigating in a World at Risk of Fragmentation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

  • ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone will participate in an online round table on the digital euro organized by the Greens/EFA in the European Parliament.

  • Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden will give the keynote at the Society of Professional Economists Annual Conference in London.

  • The Frankfurt European Banking Conference will be held in Frankfurt, Germany.

  • Eurozone Current Account (September), Inflation (October),  CPI (October)

  • Spain Balance of Trade (September)

  • UK Retail Sales (October)

  • Italy Current Account (September)

  • Switzerland Industrial Production (Q3)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • The 2nd European Union-Angola Business Forum will be held in Luanda, Angola.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Angola FX Reserves (October), M3 Money Supply (October) 

 

Saturday, November 18, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Foreign Direct Investment (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Latvia celebrates Independence Day, commemorating the day the country declared independence from Russia in 1918 – which they did again 72 years late when the Soviet Union broke up.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing signficant to report.  

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Sunday, November 19, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Argentina holds the second round of Presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is National Day in Monaco, celebrating the country being ruled by the Grimaldi Family who took the throne in 1927.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

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Francis Kelly
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