The Global Week Ahead

June 23 - 30, 2024

This week, the world and the markets will be captivated by the unfolding drama of US politics. President Biden and former President Trump are scheduled to engage in a high-stakes debate on Thursday night. The outcome of this debate, a pivotal moment in the political landscape, could reshape voters' perceptions of both candidates and sway the polls. Notably, this will be their last debate until September 10, adding to the anticipation and importance of this event.

Also this week, the US Supreme Court is expected to hand down a decision on the politically explosive issue of whether former President Trump can assert immunity for his pending federal case in which he was charged with conspiring to subvert the 2020 elections. If the Court rules in Trump's favor, then his January 6 federal case – which has been held up pending the Court's decision – will either proceed or be thrown out.

On the global stage, Iran is holding its presidential elections on Friday.  With six candidates in the running, most observers are predicting a low voter turnout and the likely election of a hardliner aligned with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's policies.  However, there is a potential game-changer - Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist lawmaker.  If somehow he gets elected, it could open a new avenue for improving relations with the US and other Western powers.

France begins its snap parliamentary elections this week. French President Emmanuel Macron called the elections upon seeing the results of the recent EU parliamentary elections. Since then, a coalition of right-wing candidates led by the National Rally's Marine Le Pen has surged to a lead and likely majority of the French Parliament.

Finally, the EU will hold a Conference on Ukraine's accession to become a member, a major step on the trek to joining the EU. Ukraine will be presented with a general Negotiating Framework, establishing the guidelines and principles for the accession negotiations.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, markets will look at inflation indicators published in the US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. The US PCE comes out on Friday.   Also, the Conference Board's consumer confidence gauge in the US comes out on Tuesday.

Turning to Asia, the Bank of Japan releases its summary of opinions from its June meeting. Markets will also consider the June Tokyo CPI, which comes out on Friday. 

 Below are the rest of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events and reports we are monitoring this coming week.

Sunday, June 23, 2024 

Global

·       The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) will hold plenary and working group meetings in Singapore.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Polish President Andrzej Duda begins a five-day state visit to China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Thailand New Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will receive Argentina's President Javier Milei in Berlin.  The two leaders are expected to trade issues.

·       Estonia celebrates Victory Day, commemorating the post-World War I fight against Soviet-Russian troops and the Baltic-German Landeswehr Army.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a  speech on the occasion of the conferral of the Weltwirtschaftlicher Preis 2024 to her by the Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft in Kiel, Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 24, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Somalia. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the. International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT) and a briefing on Non-proliferation. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Senate is out of session until July 8.  The House of Representatives is in session this week.

·       The US Supreme Court will be releasing this week five major rulings, including their decision if former President Trump can assert immunity for his pending federal case where he charged with conspiring to subvert the 2020 elections.  A second case will decide whether the US Justice Department properly charged more than 300 defendants for the January 6 uprising at the US Capitol.  A third case will decide whether the Biden Administration improperly coerce social media companies to remove false or misleading content in violation of the Constitution.  A fourth case will decide whether courts should defer to federal regulatory agencies interpretations of ambiguous laws.  And the fifth case will decide whether governments can tell social media platforms how to moderate content without running afoul of the First Amendment.

·       In New York, Genaro García Luna, former Mexican secretary of public safety, to be sentenced in a New York courtroom after his conviction of continuing criminal enterprise, conspiracy to distribute narcotics, conspiracy to import narcotics, and making false statements.

·       Peace talks between the Colombian government and the FARC dissident guerrilla group Segunda Marquetalia will begin in Caracas, Venezuela.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The International Monetary Fund gives their formal annual “check-up” of the US economy.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives opening remarks at the International Journal of Central Banking Annual Research Conference 2024, Rome, Italy.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to speak on monetary policy and the economy before an event in partnership with the Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California and the San Francisco Press Club.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks before the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (June)/ Current Account (May)/ Foreign Direct Investment (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (June)

·       Chile PPI (May)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (June)

·       Paraguay PPI (May)

·       Argentina Unemployment Rate Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Leading Indicator (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       A new session of parliament begins in India after the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a third term in power following June elections, although without the sole majority it held for a decade.

·       In Hong Kong, the Court of Final Appeal holds a hearing for Jimmy Lai, the British citizen and former newspaper owner who was arrested in 2020 for his pro-democracy activities and criticism of the Chinese Communist party.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       In Hong Kong, Chinese property developers Kaisa Group Holdings and Shimao face court proceedings over wind-up petitions, amid the country's relentless real estate crisis. Kaisa's hearing is scheduled for today, while Shimao's is set for Wednesday.

·       New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (May)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (May)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ M2 Money Supply (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  The ministers are expected to talk about the situation in Ukraine, the War in Gaza, the situation in the Western Balkans, Georgia, and the Great Lakes Region.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Luxembourg.  They are scheduled to talk about Russia’s actions in the Baltic Sea, future fisheries relations with Norway, and sustainable fishing in the EU.

·       NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg travels to France for meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron.

·       The European Space Forum takes place in Brussels and runs through June 25.  The Forum seeks to encourage “discussions currently taking place around the future of the EU Space Law and other important policy initiatives, this is a crucial period for the future shape of the space sector in Europe. The conference will provide a platform for multi-stakeholder discussions around the path towards the EU Single Market for Space; as well as focusing more broadly on strategic pillars of sustainability, resilience, competitiveness, economic security and on ensuring long-term autonomous access to space.”

·       President Alexander Lukashenko hosts Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in panel discussion at the ACPR Conference "Ten years of SSM banking supervision: key achievements and main challenges ahead" in Paris, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo Mr. Fernandez-Bollo chairs Roundtable 1 entitled: "What are the key achievements of 10 years of SSM supervision in Europe and the main expectations for the future?" at the ACPR Conference "Ten years of SSM banking supervision: key achievements and main challenges ahead" in Paris, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a Roundtable at ACPR Conference "Ten years of SSM banking supervision: key achievements and main challenges ahead" in Paris, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel "Investing in Sovereignty – How to Create a New Single Market for a New World Order?" at Tag der Industrie (TDI) 2024 in Berlin, Germany.

·       Switzerland Current Account Q1

·       Turkey Business Confidence (June)/ Capacity Utilization (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/14)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (June)

·       Poland Retail Sales (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Great Britain CBI Industrial Trends Orders (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran holds its third presidential debate in Tehran. The topic of the debate will be “Iran’s role in the World.”

·       The 21st Annual Herzlia Security Conference will be held in in Herzliya, Israel.  A number of senior Israeli and US officials, including US Ambassador to Israel Jacob Lew and National Security Advisor to Vice President Kamala Harris will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (May)/ M2 Money Supply (May)

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (April)/ Total Credit (April)/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Global Peace Leadership Conference begins in Nairobi, Kenya.  The event brings more than 600 delegates from 25 countries to discuss sustainable peacebuilding.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (May)

Tuesday, June 25, 2024 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East (Syria).

·       The Wall Street Journal’s Global Food Forum begins and runs through June 26.  Business leaders from the food industry and agriculture will be speaking.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Peru’s President Dina Boluarte begins a visit to China where she will meet with President Xi Jinping.  She is also expected to meet with the CEOs of Huawei and BYD, two firms winning market share in Peru. 

·       In Miami, Florida, a US Federal Court will sentence former British Virgin Islands Premier Andrew Fahie after he was convicted of conspiracy to import a controlled substance, conspiracy to commit money laundering, interstate and foreign travel in aid of racketeering, and other charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech entitled “Perspectives on U.S. Monetary Policy and Bank Capital Reform” at the Policy Exchange Event in London.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook” at the Economic Club of New York Luncheon, New York.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives pre-recorded opening remarks at the Midwest Cyber Workshop hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of St. Louis, Chicago, and Kansas City.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Canada Inflation Rate (May)/ CPI Median (May)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May)/ Redbook (June/22)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (April)/ House Price Index (April)/ CB Consumer Confidence (June)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (June)/ Richmond Fed Services Index (June)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (June)/ Money Supply (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/21)/ Fed Cook Speech/ Fed Bowman Speech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok and Japan Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki will hold meetings in Seoul.  They are working on how to “take appropriate steps to stabilize excessive volatility in their currencies.”

·       The National People's Congress Standing Committee convenes in Beijing for a four-day session. China's top legislative body has 10 bills on its agenda, including one that has raised eyebrows for seeking to ban behavior and clothing that "hurts the feelings" of the Chinese people. While there are likely to be draft changes, the current changes do not specify what images or words might be considered an offence, which could lead to a fine of 5,000 yuan ($680) or up to 15 days in prison.

·       In Dalian, China, the World Economic Forum’s 15th Annual Meeting of the New Champions starts and runs through June 27.  More than 1,500 corporate and political leaders are expected to attend.

·       China's Chang'e 6 lunar probe is due to return to Earth carrying the first samples ever collected from the far side of the moon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change & Index (June)

·       Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (April)/ Leading Index (April)

·       Japan Coincident Index Final (April)/ Leading Economic Index Final (April)

·       Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In France, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, National Rally president Jordan Bardella, and left-wing alliance leader Manuel Bompard will debate on national television ahead of the parliamentary elections which begin later this week.

·       The EU will hold a Conference on the Accession of Ukraine to becoming a member of the EU as well as a Conference of Accession for Moldova to the European Union will be held in Luxembourg.  Both countries will be presented with a general Negotiating Framework, which establishes the guidelines and principles for the accession negotiations.

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Luxembourg.  Ministers are expected to discuss preparations for the European Council meeting on June 27/28, including discussing the situation in Ukraine, the Middle East, EU security and defense, and EU competitiveness.

·       Today is Croatia Independence Day, commemorating the day in 1991 when the country broke away from Yugoslavia.

·       Slovenia celebrates Statehood Day, commemorating when it broke away from Yugoslavia in 1991.
Economic Reports/Events –

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q1/ PPI (May)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran holds its fourth and final presidential debate in advance of the June 28 election.  The topic of this debate will be “The Economy.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       President of the Republic of Congo Denis Sassou Nguesso will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin during a trip to Moscow.  Russia has been focusing on building their sphere of influence throughout Africa and, following a meeting between Putin and Nguesso during the Russia-Africa Summit last year, trade between the two countries has increased 85 percent.

·       Kenya’s Parliament will meet to vote on proposed changes to the 2024 finance law which has led to massive public protests around the country.

·       The Global Peace Leadership Conference will begin in Nairobi, Kenya.  The event brings more than 600 delegates from 25 countries to discuss sustainable peacebuilding.

·       Also in Nairobi, The Enhancing the Sustainability of Investment for Vaccine Manufacturing in Africa conference will begin and run through June 27.  The event is funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development. Kenyan President William Ruto will be the keynote speaker.

·       Today is Mozambique Independence Day, commemorating when the country declared its independence from Portugal after a bloody insurgency in 1975.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (April)

Wednesday, June 26, 2024 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on children and armed conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo hosts in Washington, D.C. South Korean Ahn Duk-geun and Japanese Ken Saito to discuss stable supply chains and how to mutually address China trade policy.

·       Mexico City’s Cutzamala water system could run dry.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve publishes its annual bank stress test results.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/21)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/21)/ New Home Sales (May)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (June/21)/ Bank Stress Tests/ Building Permits Final (May)

·       Brazil Bank Lending (May)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (June)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (May)/ Manufacturing Sales (May)

·       Argentina Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The US will commence Rim of the Pacific 2024 (Rimpac 24) military exercise, with 40 surface ships, three submarines, 14 national land forces, more than 150 aircraft and over 25,000 personnel taking part in the biennial exercise, this year hosted in Honolulu, Hawaii. It will run until August 2.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (May)/ Monthly CPI Indicator (May)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (May)

·       India M3 Money Supply (June/14)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The trial of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich on charges of espionage begins in Moscow.

·       British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and opposition leader Keir Starmer square off in a BBC debate ahead of elections on July 4.

·       The sixteenth meeting of the EU Accession Conference with Montenegro at ministerial level will be held in Brussels. The meeting will take stock of Montenegro’s progress in meeting the interim benchmarks of the rule of law chapters – Chapter 23 on Judiciary and Fundamental rights, and Chapter 24 on Justice, Freedom and Security – and provide guidance for the work ahead.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the Bank of Finland's 3rd International Monetary Policy Conference on monetary policy in low and high inflation environments in Helsinki, Finland.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JUL

·       Hungary Current Account Q1

·       France Consumer Confidence (June)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (May)/ Jobseekers Total (May)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (June)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (June)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (April)

·       Euro Area European Council

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Madagascar Independence Day is celebrated, commemorating when the country was given its independence in 1960 from France.

·       Somalia Independence Day is observed today, marking the day the country was given its independence by the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (June)

Thursday, June 27, 2024

Global

·       The G7 Education Ministers meet in Trieste, Italy.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), to the Democratic Republic of the Congo sanctions, as well as to the African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Also, this morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden will debate former President Trump in their first presidential debate in Atlanta, Georgia.  CNN is hosting the debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (June)/ PPI (May)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (April)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q1/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (May)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/22)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (June/15)/ PCE Prices Final Q1/ Real Consumer Spending Final Q1/ Pending Home Sales (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June/21)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (June)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (June)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (June)

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (June)/ ANZ Business Confidence (June)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/22)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/22)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (May)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Malaysia PPI (May)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council will meet in Brussels through June 28.  The EU leaders will seek to come to an agreement on who the next President of the European Commission will be.  Tensions have emerged between Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni and French President Emmanual Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz after they left her out of informal consultations on who should be the next president.  The leaders are also expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine, the Middle East, EU security and defense, and EU competitiveness.

·       In the UK, junior doctors in England begin a five-day strike in the British Medical Association’s ongoing dispute with the government over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech on banking supervision at a conference hosted by Allen & Overy in NeuIsenburg, Germany.

·       The Bank of England publishes their annual report on the British financial system stability.

·       Slovakia Business/ Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Spain Retail Sales (May)/ Business Confidence (June)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (June)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/21)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)/ Economic Sentiment (June)/ Consumer Confidence Final (June)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ Industrial Sentiment (June)/ Selling Price Expectations (June)/ Services Sentiment (June)

·       Italy Business/ Consumer Confidence (June)/ PPI (May)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (May)

·       Greece Total Credit (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran’s Presidential Election

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The UN-sponsored Africa CEO Summit begins in Nairobi, Kenya.  The event brings together business leaders and policymakers from Africa to discuss the future of Africa.

·       Eco t. nomic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (May) 

Friday, June 28, 2024 

Global

·       The Global Interdependence Center holds its Central Banking Series in Paris.  Among the speakers are Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau and Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Peru’s President Dina Boluarte begins a visit to China where she will meet with President Xi Jinping.  She is also expected to meet with the CEOs of Huawei and BYD, two firms winning market share in Peru.  China is Peru’s largest trading partner and is trying to build a $4 billion deep-water port in in Chancay, Peru which is raising concerns in the US and elsewhere in South America.  But the Peruvian government is disputing the terms of the deal and, for now, the venture is on hold.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman patriciates in a conversation At the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute Leadership Council Conference (virtual).

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak before the Global Interdependence Center/Banque de France" Central Banking Series: Paris" conference.

·       USA Fed Barkin Speech/ Core PCE Price Index (May)/ PCE Price Index (May)/ Personal Income & Spending (May)/ Chicago PMI (June)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (June)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks – Corn/Soy/Wheat (June)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June/28)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (June)/ GDP (April)

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (May)/ Nominal Budget Balance (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Net Payrolls (May)

·       Chile Copper Production (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Costa Rica GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Current Account Q1

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (May)

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Current Account Q1

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account Q1

·       Argentina Economic Activity (April)

·       Panama Current Account Q4

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Mongolia holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (May)/ Jobs/applications ratio (May)/ Tokyo CPI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Housing Starts (May)/ Construction Orders (May)

·       Australia Housing Credit (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (June)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (May)

·       Singapore Export Prices (May)/ Import Prices (May)/ PPI (May)

·       Thailand Current Account (May)/ Private Consumption & Investment (May)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (May)

·       China Current Account Final Q1

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       India Government Budget Value (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/21)/ Infrastructure Output (May)/ Current Account Q1/ External Debt Q1

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukraine celebrates Constitution Day, celebrates the date of the adoption of a new constitution in the Ukraine in 1996.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Retail Sales (May)/ Import Prices (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Great Britain Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q1/ Business Investment Final Q1

·       Hungary PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       France Inflation Rate (June)/ Household Consumption (May)/ PPI (May)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (June)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (June)

·       Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade Final (May)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (April)/ Inflation Rate (June)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (June)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (June)

·       Greece PPI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (May)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ M2 Money Supply (May)

·       Ukraine Current Account (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran holds elections to select a new president after President Raisi died in a helicopter crash. Iran's Guardian Council, which oversees elections and decides who allowed to run for elected office, have approved six candidates.  They include Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Iran's hardline parliament speaker and former Revolutionary Guards commander, Saeed Jalili, a conservative, who was former chief nuclear negotiator and ran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's office for four years and Tehran's conservative mayor Alireza Zakani.  Also approved to run are Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist lawmaker, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, a hardliner and a former interior minister, and Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi a conservative politician.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Djibouti’s Independence Day is celebrated today, marking the day in 1977 when it gained independence from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)/ Consumer Confidence Q2/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Budget Balance (May)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (June)

Saturday, June 29, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in the Petersberger Sommer-Dialog in Königswinter (Bonn), Germany.

·       France Legislative Election 1st Round

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2024 Egypt-European Union Investment Conference will take place in Cairo, Egypt and runs through June 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mauritania holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 29, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (June)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (June)/ NBS General PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The First Round of parliamentary voting begins in France.

·       Belgium’s six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union ends.  Hungary takes over the Presidency tomorrow, June 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q1/ M3 Money Supply (May)/ Private Bank Lending (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Congo celebrates its Independence Day today, commemorating when the country gained its independence from Belgium in 1960.

·       Today is Independence Day in the Seychelles, celebrating the day in 1975 when it gained its independence from the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

June 9 - 16, 2024

Despite the summer season, the upcoming week will significantly shape the trajectory of various geopolitical challenges in the coming months.  The G7 summit, to be held in Italy, is a pivotal event where leaders will delve into critical issues such as Ukraine, Gaza, and climate change.  Under the leadership of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the summit has extended invitations to African and other global leaders, amplifying its importance.

Meanwhile, world leaders will gather in Switzerland for the Summit on Peace in Ukraine.  The meeting seeks to develop "a common understanding of a path forward toward a just and lasting peace in Ukraine." Russia has not been invited, and China says it will not participate.

Simultaneously, the urgency of the situation in the Middle East is underscored by the King of Jordan's call for an immediate meeting on facilitating aid to Gaza.  This high-level gathering, to be attended by regional leaders, the UN Secretary-General, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, highlights the pressing need for humanitarian assistance in the region.

Amidst these developments, the BRICS foreign ministers are set to meet in Russia.   Notably, the Turkish foreign minister's attendance, as Turkey explores the possibility of joining the BRICS, could mark a significant shift in global alliances.   This meeting also marks the first BRICS gathering since Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates became members, adding to its significance.

On the global economic radar screen this week, the Federal Reserve meets to discuss interest rates.  Seeing the CPI release on Wednesday, markets will be keenly focused on what Fed Chair Jay Powell says during his press conference to indicate any hope for a rate cut this year.  The week ends with the University of Michigan consumer survey on Friday.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan meets on Friday to discuss rates.  While rates are unlikely to change, any guidance from the BoJ will be essential to listen to.  Also, China's inflation data will be out on Wednesday this week.

Finally, quite a few speeches are being given by European Central Bank board members that are worth watching.   The UK GDP is coming out on Wednesday. 

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events of note for the week ahead:

Sunday, June 9, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·      The Indian BJP-led National Democratic Alliance will officially form a new government. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will begin naming members of his cabinet.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Vehicle Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Parliamentary elections conclude, having begun on June 6.

·       Bulgaria holds snap parliamentary elections.

·       Belgium holds parliamentary (all 150 members of the Chamber of Representatives) and regional elections.

·       Switzerland holds a referendum vote on four issues (Premium Relief Initiative, Cost-Brake Initiative, Initiative for Freedom and Physical Integrity, Federal Act on Secure Electricity Supply from Renewable Energy Sources).

·       The Republic of South Ossetia holds parliamentary elections.

·       San Marino holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Heroes Day in Uganda, honoring the estimated 500,000 people who died in the Uganda Bush War that took place between 1981 and 1986.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 10, 2024 

Global

·       BRICs Foreign Ministers will meet in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, through June 11.  The meeting is in preparation for the BRICS Leaders Meeting being held October 22-24 in Russia. his will be the group's first regular meeting since BRICS expanded this year to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Foreign ministers from some non-BRICS members were invited, too, most notably Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who will attend. 

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on UNOCA/LRA, followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the 1267/1989/2253 Committee.

·       The UN’s  3rd Dushanbe Water Action Decade Conference will be held in Dushanbe, Republic of Tajikistan.  Li Junhua, USG of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), will deliver opening and closing remarks as a co-chair and will also deliver remarks at the Interactive Dialogue 5 on the Water Action Decade.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will travel to Egypt, Israel, Jordan, and Qatar from June 10-12, 2024.  The Secretary will discuss with partners the need to reach a ceasefire agreement that secures the release of all hostages.

·       Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s transition team official begins working, and a number of key personnel appointments are expected to be announced.

·       US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to New Delhi to for meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Israel to push for a cease-fire in Gaza.

·       The U.S. and Japan hold their inaugural meeting of the Defense Industrial Cooperation, Acquisition, and Sustainment Forum (DICAS) in Tokyo. Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante and Masaki Fukasawa, commissioner of Japan's Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics Agency,  meet with representatives from American and Japanese defense contractors to discuss co-production of missiles and ship repair of U.S. Navy ships at Japanese private shipyards.

·       The U.S. and South Korea will hold the third meeting of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) in Seoul to discuss further ways to deter North Korea's nuclear threat. Established under the Washington Declaration when presidents Joe Biden and Yoon Suk Yeol met in April last year, the NCG arranged the  Ohio-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine USS Kentucky's port call to Busan last June, the first such visit by a ballistic missile submarine in four decades.

·       The Korea-Latin America Future Cooperation Forum will begin in Seoul, South Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Malaysia Industrial Production YoY APR/ Unemployment Rate APR

·       Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current MAY

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves MAY

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU is expected to announce its decision on whether to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

·       Poland will hold a National Security Council meeting over border tensions with Belarus.

· Chancellor Olaf Scholz receives Chile President Gabriel Boric with military honors, followed by a press conference.

·       Today is Portugal Day, also known as “Dia de Portugal, de Camões e das Comunidades Portuguesas.”  The day commemorates the death of Luís de Camões who is recognized as the country’s greatest nation icon.  He is most known for his poem which narrates the story of Portuguese explorations in the 15th century.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania Balance of Trade APR

·       Hungary Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Slovakia Industrial Production YoY APR

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence MAY

·       Turkey Industrial Production YoY APR/ Unemployment Rate APR/ Current Account APR/ Participation Rate APR

·       Italy Industrial Production YoY APR

·       Slovenia Industrial Production YoY APR

·       Greece Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Belarus Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran’s Guardian Council will announce the official candidates allowed to run for president in the wake of the June 28 death of President Ebrahim Raisi.  Iranian state media have reported that the speaker of parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, a former Revolutionary Guards commander who lost his bid in two previous presidential polls, is among the candidates. Other well-known figures who have signed up include hardline former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and former Speaker Ali Larijani, a prominent conservative and ally of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 

·       Iraqi Kurdistan holds regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production YoY APR

·       Jordan Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Israel Consumer Confidence MAY

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Tuesday, June 11, 2024 

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will attend a High-Level Conference on Gaza. The “Call for Action: Urgent Humanitarian Aid for Gaza” conference will be held at the invitation of His Majesty King Abdullah II, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, and the Secretary-General of the United Nations. 

·       OPEC Releases its Monthly Oil Market Report.

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT). In the afternoon, the Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Trade Representative Katherine Tai travels to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan through June 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index MAY/ Redbook YoY JUN/08/ API Crude Oil Stock Change JUN/07

·       Brazil Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Mexico Industrial Production YoY APR

·       Canada Building Permits MoM APR

·       Colombia Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account APR

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade APR

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence MAY

·       Indonesia Retail Sales YoY APR

·       Malaysia Retail Sales YoY APR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ukraine Recovery Conference begins in Berlin, Germany, and runs through June 12.  International leaders will attend the conference, which is being hosted by the German Foreign Office and the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). The URC2024 is a continuation of the annual series of high-level political events dedicated to the swift recovery and long-term reconstruction of Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine. It is also the first Ukraine Recovery Conference hosted in an EU member state and comes at a critical time for Ukraine. The conference will reflect the Lugano Principles, including a “whole of society” approach to recovery through the meaningful participation of a broad range of stakeholders. 

·       NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will visit Riga, Latvia. He will participate in the B9 Summit, hosted by the President of Latvia, Edgars Rinkēvičs, the President of Romania, Klaus Iohannis, and the President of Poland, Andrzej Duda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Claudia Buch gives the opening keynote speech at the 2024 Annual ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference in Frankfurt.  ECB Board Member Frank Elderson will give the dinner speech.

·       ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat at the Banking and Payments Federation Ireland National Conference in Dublin.

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate APR/ HMRC Payrolls Change MAY

·       Turkey Retail Sales YoY APR

·       Russia Balance of Trade APR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Jordan will host an International Conference on Humanitarian Aid to Gaza. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will participate as will the UN Secretary General and other leaders.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade APR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production YoY APR

Wednesday, June 12, 2024

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold s briefing on North Korea.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the commemoration of the Chaco Armistice, a national holiday in Paraguay commemorating the end of the Chaco War between Paraguay and Bolivia in the 1930s. .

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meets on the economy and interest rates.  Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index JUN/07/ Inflation Rate YoY MAY/ CPI MAY/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change JUN/07/ Consumer Inflation Expectations MAY/ WASDE Report/ / FOMC Economic Projections/ Monthly Budget Statement MAY/ Interest Rate Projection – Current/

·       Uruguay Industrial Production YoY APR

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade APR

·       Peru Balance of Trade APR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate MAY

·       Japan PPI YoY MAY/ Machine Tool Orders YoY MAY

·       China Inflation Rate YoY MAY/ PPI YoY MAY

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence MAY/ M3 Money Supply YoY MAY/31

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       India Industrial Production YoY APR/ Inflation Rate YoY MAY/ Manufacturing Production YoY APR

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence MAY

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·      British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labor Leader Keir Starmer participate in their second debate on Sky News.

·       Russian FM Lavrov meets Cuban counterpart Bruno Eduardo Rodríguez Parrilla on the sidelines of the BRICS Foreign Minister Meeting.

·      Today is Peace Day in Kosovo, celebrating the ceasefire in the Kosovo War in 1999.

·      Today is Russia Day, a national holiday in Russia. Originally, the holiday was known as the Russia Independence Day celebrating the disintegration of the Soviet Union.  President Putin changed the name and meaning of the day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen will participate in a panel discussion at the 2024 Bundesbank Symposium in Frankfurt.  Later in the day, ECB Board Member Claudia Buch will speak.

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will testify before the Finance Committee of the German Bundestag in Berlin.

·       ECB Board Vice President Luis de Guindos will give remarks and participate in a Q&A at MNI Connect event in London.

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul will give a keynote speech at the Central Banking's Summer Meetings in London.

·       Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final MAY/ Current Account APR

·       Romania Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Great Britain GDP YoY APR/ Goods Trade Balance APR/ Balance of Trade APR/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production YoY APR/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker MAY

·       Slovakia Construction Output YoY APR

·       Russia Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Export-Import Bank annual meetings and the AfriCaribbean Trade and Investment Forum will be held in Nassau, The Bahamas, under the theme ‘Owning Our Destiny: Economic Prosperity on the Platform of Global Africa.’

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

Thursday, June 13, 2024

Global

·       The G7 Leaders’ Summit begins in Apulia, Italy, and goes through June 14.  This year the G7 is chaired by Italy and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.  The main issues to be addressed during the six working sessions are: Africa, climate change and development, the ongoing situation in the Middle East, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, migration, Indo-Pacific/economic security, artificial intelligence, and energy/Africa and the Mediterranean region, The Italian presidency has also invited leaders from 12 countries and 5 international organizations to take part in some working sessions during the summit. African leaders from Kenya, Algeria, Egypt, South Africa, and Tunisia will attend.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing in the morning on the Middle East followed by consultations (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on 1591 Committee, followed by consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will moderate a discussion with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen before the Economic Club of New York.

·       US Export Sales, PPI (May), Initial Jobless Claims (June 1), EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June 7)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (April)

·       Argentina Inflation ((May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY MAY

·       Japan BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ Q2/ Foreign Bond Investment JUN/08/ Stock Investment by Foreigners JUN/08

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index JUN/ Employment Change MAY/ Unemployment Rate MAY/ Participation Rate MAY

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment MAR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Ministers will meet in Brussels and participate in the NATO-Ukraine Council.

· NATO holds Tiger Meet 2024, a NATO aircraft exercise in Schleswig Air Base Germany.

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  The presidency will inform ministers about the state of play of a legislative proposal to combat child sexual abuse. The proposed EU law would make it mandatory for internet companies to alert the authorities about online child sexual abuse on their platforms. A planned EU center would support authorities acting on reports of child sexual abuse and collect and share expertise and best practices in prevention and victim support.  Ministers will also discuss the extension of the temporary protection for persons having fled from Ukraine after the start of the war. This protection – which was activated on 4 March 2022 – allows displaced persons from Ukraine to reside in the EU and to enjoy rights related to, for instance, residence and medical assistance across the EU. It was initially granted for one year and has been extended until 4 March 2025. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance MAY

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (May)

·       Spain Inflation (May)

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (April)

·        

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey FX Reserves (June 7)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (April), Mining Production (April)

Friday, June 14, 2024

Global

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the maintenance of international peace and security. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US celebrates Flag Day, commemorating the day in 1777 when the Second Continental Congress adopted the first US national flag.

·       Today is Falkland Islands Liberation Day, celebrating the day in 1982 when the British military liberated the island from Argentine military occupation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook will give a speech entitled “Lessons from the American Economic Association Summer Program” at the Celebrating 50 Years of the American Economic Association Summer Program, Washington, D.C.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in a fireside chat before the Iowa Farm Bureau Economic Summit in Des Moines, Iowa.

·       US Export Prices and Import Prices (May), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June), Michigan Inflation Expectations (June), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (June 14)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (April)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (April), New Motor Vehicle Sales (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (May), M2 Money Supply (May), Outstanding Loan Growth (May), Total Social Financing (May)

·       Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision, Japan Capacity Utilization (April), Industrial Production (April), Tertiary Industry Index (April)

·       South Korea Import/Export Prices (May)

·       India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May),  WPI Food Index (May), WPI Fuel Index (May), WPI Inflation (May), WPI Manufacturing (May)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)

·       Singapore Unemployment (Q1)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) meets in Brussels. Ministers will hold two policy debates. The first debate touches on a proposed regulation that aims to facilitate the recognition in a member state of the parenthood of a child that has been established in another member state. The exchange will, in particular, address the recognition of surrogacy parenthood. A second debate addresses the proposed update of a directive from 2011 on combating the sexual abuse and sexual exploitation of children and child pornography. The goal is to expand the definitions of these offenses and to introduce higher penalties and more specific requirements for prevention and assistance to victims.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the 30th Dubrovnik Economic Conference in Dubrovnik.

·       ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane will participate on panel at the 30th Dubrovnik Economic Conference in Dubrovnik.

·       ECB Board Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in the Award ceremony of the Carlos V European Prize to Mr. Mario Draghi.

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a virtual meeting of the European Fiscal Board.

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the Lions Club Dortmund in Dortmund, Germany.

·       France Inflation (May)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (April)

·       Eurozone Balance of Trade (April)

·       Russia Inflation (May), GDP (Q1)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Budget Balance (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (April & May)

Saturday, June 15, 2024

Global

·       Switzerland will host a Summit on Peace in Ukraine in Bürgenstock.  The goal of the meeting is to bring heads of states together to develop “a common understanding of a path forward toward a just and lasting peace in Ukraine.”  The summit, in which more than 108 countries will be represented, will build on broad international support for Ukrainian President Zelensky’s peace proposals, which include a full withdrawal of Russian troops.  Moscow has not been invited, and China says it will not participate.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s coastguard law, regulations on the Administrative Law Enforcement Procedures for Coast Guard Agencies, goes into force.  The law could and likely will lead to direct military confrontation with Philippine, US, and other shipping moving through waters China is claiming as their own and which is disputed by the Philippines and other nations.

·       Today is National Salvation Day in Azerbaijan.  The day commemorates the return to power of the national leader, Heydar Aliyev, to Baku in 1993 helping to end political chaos and the risk of civil war.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FDI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 16, 2024

Global

·       The Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha (one of the two main holidays celebrated in Islam) is celebrated through June 20.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing Significant to Report

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation (May), Wholesale Rate (May), Wholesale Prices (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa’s new Parliament will convene as coalition negotiations continue to form a new government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

May 6 - 12, 2024

This week is going to be relatively quiet. Monday and Wednesday are holidays in Europe, which means a very quiet week in the EU, while holidays in Japan and South Korea will also help things stay quiet in Asia. 

However, we are watching one big geopolitical event this week, which will take place in the EU: Chinese President Xi Jinping's visits to Europe. Xi's trip begins with meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron and EU President Ursula von der Leyden in Paris to discuss the multiple trade spats between the EU and China. From there, Xi heads to Hungary for meetings with Prime Minister Viktor Orban and then to Serbia. While all this is happening, Russia celebrates Victory Day this week, marking the end of World War II, and President Vladimir Putin will celebrate being reinaugurated as President of Russia.

Also, this week, we will be watching for renewed efforts to bring a cease-fire to Gaza as Israel prepares to launch a military offensive against the city of Rafah. We do not hope a deal will get done, but the discussions will likely intensify, and we can always hope.

Turning our attention to the US, the US Congress is in session this week. While the budget is finished and aid to Ukraine and Israel has been approved, most of the "major" issues left for Congress to tackle are secondary. This week's key focus for Congress is reauthorizing the Federal Aviation Administration.  

On the global economic radar this week, there are several key indicators and events to watch. Markets will be closely monitoring the Bank of England's interest rate decision on Thursday, the UK GDP report, and the University of Michigan consumer survey in the US. In Asia, China will be reporting the latest trade balance and Caixin Services PMI, while Japan will also be releasing trade data. Australia's Reserve Bank meets on Tuesdayto decide rates.  

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Monday, May 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Treasury Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson and Treasury General Counsel Neil MacBride will travel to Singapore and Malaysia to advance Treasury’s work countering terrorist financing and revenue generation by Iran and its proxies as well as to discuss the implementation of sanctions and export controls against Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in conversation before the Milken Institute 2024 Global Conference.

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (March)/ Nominal Budget Balance (March)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA Fed Williams Speech/ Loan Officer Survey

·       Colombia PPI (April)/ Monetary Policy Minutes

·       Canada Average Hourly Wages (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping begins a European tour of France, Serbia, and Hungary. He will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (April)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (April)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (April)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in trilateral meetings in Paris with Emmanuel Macron, President of France, and Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The UK marks the Early May Bank Holiday, a national holiday.

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (March)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (March)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ Bundesbank President Nagel Speech

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ PPI (March)

·       Switzerland SNB Jordan Speech

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (April)/ Business Confidence (April)

·       Jordan PPI (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Chad holds the first phase of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (April)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (April)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (April)

Tuesday, May 7, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a moderated conversation on the economic overview before the Milken Institute 2024 Global Conference.

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will appear before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Public Accounts.

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (April)/ Auto Production (April)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       USA Redbook (May/04)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (May)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs/ Fed Kashkari Speech/ Consumer Credit Change (March)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/03)/ Used Car Prices (April)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (April)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (April)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (April)

·       Colombia Exports (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Australia Retail Sales Final (March)/ RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (April)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (April)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/07)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will be re-inaugurated as President of Russia.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) meets in Brussels.  The ministers will discuss Ukraine, the situation in Gaza, and other current business.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  They are expected to discuss the Equal Treatment Directive and the state of play of the Violence Against Women Survey.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Jonathan Hall gives a speech at the University of Exeter entitled “Monsters in the deep… Artificial Intelligence.”

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (April)/ Halifax House Price Index (April)/ New Car Sales (April)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (April)/ BoE Hall Speech

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Factory Orders (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Romania PPI (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (March)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Serbia PPI (April)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, May 8, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on 1559 report (Lebanon).

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Washington Conference on the Americas takes place in the U.S. capital with Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson participates in a moderated discussion on Careers in Economics at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech on financial stability at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins to speak before students and faculty and participates in a fireside discussion before the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Sloan School of Management's Challenges and Opportunities class.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/03)/ Wholesale Inventories (March)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/03)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (March)/ Car Production (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Chile Inflation Rate (April)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (April)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (March)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (April)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (April)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Budapest.

·       North Macedonia holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

·       Germany Industrial Production (March)

·       Romania Retail Sales (March)

·       Hungary Industrial Production Prel (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Budget Balance (April)

·       Span Industrial Production (March)

·       Italy Retail Sales (March)

·       Great Britain BBA Mortgage Rate (April)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (March)

·       Russia Monetary Policy Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (April)

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Thursday, May 9, 2024

Global

·       The G7 Justice Ministers meet in Venice, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina’s General Confederation of Labor will go on strike in protest over President Javier Miliei’s economic reform efforts.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (May/04)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/27)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/04)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/03)

·       Canada BoC Financial System Review

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (March)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (March)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Foreign Bond Investment (May/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/04)/ Coincident Index Prel (March)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Australia Building Permits Final (March)/ Private House Approvals Final (March)

·       Philippines GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Ascension Day, a public holiday in the EU.  The ECB and most major banking systems are closed.

·       Russia will hold a large military parade in Moscow, marking the end of World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks and participates in Q&A at Panel Cívico organized by Asociación Panel Cívico in Madrid, Spain.

·       ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives opening remarks at a seminar “The tokenization of financial instruments – prospects for the Italian market” organized by CONSOB in Rome, Italy

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel discussion at V Edition of the Expansión International Forum in Madrid, Spain.  She later participates on a panel entitled “Finance and Banks.”
Time: 9:55

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (April)/ BoE Interest Rate Decision/ Monetary Policy Report/ MPC Vote Cut/ MPC Vote Hike/ MPC Vote Unchanged/ MPC Meeting Minutes/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech/ BoE Pill Speech

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (March)

·       Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/03)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (April)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (March)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (April)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (April)

Friday, May 10, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives the commencement speech at the American University School of Public Affairs Graduation in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Financial Stability Risks: Resiliency and the Role of Regulators” at the Texas Bankers Association Annual Convention, Arlington, Texas.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Louisiana Bankers Association Annual Conference.

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (March)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

·       USA Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (May)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Prel (May)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Goolsbee Speech/ Monthly Budget Statement (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (April)

·       Japan Household Spending (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Bank Lending (April)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (April)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment FEB

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/03)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)

·       China Vehicle Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote presentation on the digital euro by at CXVI Meeting of Central Bank Governors of the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA) in Madrid, Spain.

·       ECB Board Frank Elderson Frank Elderson participates in a roundtable at ASVIS/ECCO Symposium "Europe's Future: Investing in the Climate Transition for All" in Rome, Italy.

·       Romania Balance of Trade (March)

·       Great Britain GDP (March)/ Goods Trade Balance (March)/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Business Investment Prel Q1/ BoE Pill Speech/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (April)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (April)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Participation Rate (March)

·       Italy Industrial Production (March)/ Industrial Sales (February)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (March)

·       Switzerland Current Account Prel Q1

·       Greece Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ Vehicle Sales (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (April)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran holds parliamentary elections (phase 2).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (April)

Saturday, May 11, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)/ New Yuan Loans (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (April)/ Total Social Financing (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 12, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds Presidential elections.

·       The Catalan regional elections (Spain) are being held.  The vote could determine the future of Spain’s minority government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

April 21 - 28, 2024

As Israeli-Iranian tensions seem to be receding, events in China this week will likely garner the most attention from global markets.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Beijing for talk arriving just as the U.S. Congress passes legislation granting a military aid package to Taiwan (as part of the Ukraine/Israel military aid package) along with legislation banning TikTok from operating in the U.S., the release of a tough House of Representatives report detailing the Chinese Governments' role in supporting the fentanyl trade, and less than a week after President Biden announced his intention to triple tariffs on some Chinese steel imports.   

Blinken is expected to press Chinese leaders to step back from providing Russia with substantial dual-use technologies and materials that are being used by the Russian military in its war on Ukraine.  All in all, it will not be a leisurely visit for Blinken.

Amid Blinken's visit, China's National People's Congress meets this week to discuss new anti-money laundering laws, a second and final review of a major pending Tariff Law, and consideration of new national nuclear energy laws.

Also, this week, even though the Israeli counter-strike on Iran was seen as de-escalatory, markets and political leaders around the world will continue to watch the situation warily.  Israel begins the observation of Passover Monday night (which goes through April 30), and the hope is the situation in Gaza cools down enough for renewed negotiations with Hamas for the release of Israeli hostages (something Turkish President Recep Erdogan met with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Istanbul to discuss).  But all indications from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding a planned assault on the Gaz city of Rafah seem to be on track, despite the pleas from President Biden and other Western leaders not to do so.

Turning the global economic radar screen, markets will be focused on the U.S.'s Q1 GDP reading and U.S. personal income and outlays reports.  Among those reports is the Federal Reserve's favorite economic metric—the personal consumption expenditures price index—which they use to factor in interest rates. Moving to Europe, the purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) for the Eurozone and important economic data from Germany and France will be released, giving the European Central Bank more guidance on rates going forward. 

Looking at Asia this coming week, the big event will be on Friday when the Bank of Japan meets to decide on interest rates while Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) is also being released.

Below is what else of note we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, April 21, 2024

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador will hold a series of referendums on reforms to fight organized crime which has become a major problem for the country.

·       The Colombian government and the National Liberation Army will hold peace negotiations in Venezuela through April 22.

·       Colombian opposition groups will protest the government of President Gustavo Petro in major cities. 

·       In Rio de Janeiro, supporters of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will protest the criminal case against him. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Maldives hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will jointly open with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre the Hannover Messe, one of the largest industrial trade fairs in the world.

·       The Basque region of Spain will hold local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkish President Recep Erdogan continues a series of diplomatic meetings in the Middle East.  He met late last week with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Istanbul to discuss the release of Israeli hostages.  He now goes on to Iraq for discussions with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani about the situation in Iraqi Kurdistan and the operations of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) whom Turkey considers to be terrorist.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The UN’s African Science, Technology, and Innovation Forum will take place in Addis Ababa through April 22.

·       The Connected Africa Summit 2024 will be hosted by Kenya’s information ministry in Nairobi.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 22, 2024

Global

·       The Jewish festival of Passover begins tonight and goes through April 30.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). Also in the morning, the Security Council will resume a debate on Maintenance of international peace and security: The role of young persons in addressing security challenges in the Mediterranean. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The opening arguments will be made in the criminal trial of former President Donald Trump in New York.  The case revolved around alleged hush money being paid to former porn star Stormy Daniels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Economic Activity (February)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (March)/ PPI (March)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (March)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippines and the U.S. commence the 39th Balikatan military exercises.  The training exercise includes plans to simulate the sinking of an enemy warship and retaking territory from hostile forces. An estimated 16,700 personnel from both sides participate.

·       Indonesia’s Supreme Court is expected to rule on Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto’s presidential election victory in February.  He won the election, but the two losing candidates charged there were widespread irregularities.

·       In New Delphi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to make an announcement with Elon Musk about the opening of a major Tesla factory ($3 billion) in India.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1 & 5Y

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (March)

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg to discuss the Ukraine War and the EU’s response and sanctions on Russia.

·       The European Parliament's plenary session will convene through April 25 for the last time before the upcoming EU elections in June.  During this session, the Parliament is set to discuss new corporate due diligence requirements under the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive.  They will also likely move on new amendments to the Common Agricultural Policy following widespread protests across the EU by farmers angry at export laws. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board President Christine Lagarde gives the Presidential lecture at Yale University.

·       Euro Area Government Budget and Debt to GDP 2023/ Consumer Confidence Flash (April)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Poland Employment Growth (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (March)

·       Great Britain CBI Industrial Trends Orders (April)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi travels to Pakistan to meet with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military leaders.  In January, Iran launched a series of missiles and drones into Pakistan’s Baluchistan province against the Iranian Baloch militant group, Jaish ul-Adi.   Raisi then travels to Sri Lanka for meetings with President Wickremesinghe.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (March)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Counter-Terrorism Summit held in Abuja, Nigeria. President Bola Tinubu, in conjunction with the UN, will host representatives from the African Union and West African bloc Ecowas.

·       The 5th Africa Climate Talks, hosted by the African Union Commission’s African Climate Policy Centre and African Development Bank, will take place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

·       The African Counter-Terrorism Summit held in Abuja, Nigeria. President Bola Tinubu, in conjunction with the UN, will host representatives from the African Union and West African bloc Ecowas. The Summit goes through April 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (February)

Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Women and peace and security: Conflict-related sexual violence. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Redbook (April/20)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ New Home Sales (March)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Services Index (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/19)/ Building Permits Final (March)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s National People’s Congress meets through April 26.  The agenda items to be discussed are likely to include money laundering laws, give a second review of a pending Tariff Law, and consider energy related laws.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (March)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)

·       Singapore Core Inflation Rate (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Health Ministers will hold informal meetings through April 24 in Brussels.

·       Today is St George’s Day. It is celebrated in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Catalonia, Croatia, Cyprus, England, Georgia, Greece, North Macedonia, Portugal, Romania, and Serbia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in a roundtable on AI organized by Regulation Partners in Lanzarote (Canary Islands), Spain.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the London campus of the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business.

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (March)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)

·       Poland Retail Sales (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (February)

Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Great Lakes region. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to Non-proliferation, and it is also scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Canada releases the summary of deliberations from the most recent interest rate decision.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (April)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/19)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (April/19)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 7 to 10 yrs.

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (April)

·       Canada Retail Sales (February)

·       Chile PPI (March)

·       Paraguay PPI (March)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (February)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be in Beijing for meetings with senior Chinese officials.  This follows the recent visit of U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.  Blinken is expected to discuss the Ukraine War, President Biden’s recent announcement of his intent to triple tariffs on Chinese steel, the U.S. Congress’ newly passed ban on TikTok, and other major issues.

·       Indonesia will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation's 57th working group on small and midsize enterprises in Bali through April 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (April)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Australia Inflation Rate (Q1)/ CPI (Q1)/ RBA Trimmed Mean and Weighted Median CPI (Q1)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (April)/ Loan Growth (March)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (April)

·       Taiwan M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (March)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       North Macedonia holds the first round of presidential elections.  The vote comes in the midst of heightened tensions between the country’s Albanian minority and Macedonian majority.  If no candidate wins an outright victory, a run-off election will take place on May 8, which will coincide with the country’s planned parliamentary elections. 

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin may hold a meeting of the Council on Interethnic Relations. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Vice President Piero Cipollone gives the keynote speech at the  ECB retail payments conference 'Strengthening an innovative and integrated European retail payments market' in Frankfurt, Germany.  Later in the day, he chairs a panel entitled "Strengthening the European retail payments landscape: Public and private sectors join forces" at the conference.

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul chairs a plenary session and delivers concluding remarks at a high-level seminar on "Governance and risk culture: going forward by looking back" jointly organized by the ECB and the Florence School of Banking and Finance of the European University Institute (EUI), in Florence, Italy.

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives opening remarks at "Frankfurt liest ein Buch" organized by Frankfurt liest ein Buch e.V. in Frankfurt, Germany.  Later in the day, she gives the opening speech at the Inaugural conference of the ChaMP Research Network "Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World ("ChaMP")."

·       ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen gives the keynote speech at a high-level seminar on "Governance and risk culture: going forward by looking back" jointly organized by the ECB and the Florence School of Banking and Finance of the European University Institute (EUI), in Florence, Italy.

·       Hungary Gross Wage (February)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (April)

·       Italy Business and Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (April)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (April)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (February)/ Industrial Production (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (March)/ Total Credit Growth (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, April 25, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to resume an open debate on the Middle East.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Current Account (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)/ Federal Tax Revenues (March)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (February)

·       USA GDP Growth Rate (Q1)/ GDP Price Index (Q1)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/20)/ Real Consumer Spending Adv (Q1)/ Pending Home Sales (March)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing and Composite Index (April)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Beijing International Automotive Exhibition begins in Beijing.  Chinese and global automakers will be showcasing their latest models.

·       Today is Anzac Day, celebrating the unity of Australia, New Zealand, and the UK in defense efforts and honoring the military dead. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will visit Papua New Guinea, where he and Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister James Marape will commemorate Anzac Day. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q1)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/20)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/20)/ Coincident Index Final (February)/ Leading Economic Index Final (February)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (March)/ Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Index (February)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will deliver a speech on the future of the European Union at the Sorbonne University in Paris, France.

·       Italy celebrates National Liberation Day, commemorating the end of Nazi fascism in the country.

·       Portugal celebrates Freedom Day, commemorating the Carnation Revolution in 1974 when, which threw off the military dictatorship.

·       In London, the CBI National Business Dinner is held.  The event is attended by senior figures from business, politics, and media. Traditionally addressed by a senior member of the government.

·       Venice becomes the first city in the world to charge a daily access fee to day-trippers (€5) to tourists on day trips to the Italian city. It does not apply to those staying overnight and only applies on 29 dates between today and July 14, when there is peak tourist activity.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a lecture at the Academia Europea Leadership in Barcelona, Spain.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Great Britain Car Production (March)/ CBI Distributive Trades (April)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (May)

·       France Business Confidence (April)/ Business Climate Indicator (April)/ Jobseekers Total (March)

·       Spain PPI (March)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending and Borrowing Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/19)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (March)

Friday, April 26, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former British Virgin Islands premier Andrew Fahie, faces sentencing after being convicted of conspiracy to import a controlled substance, conspiracy to commit money laundering, interstate and foreign travel in aid of racketeering, and other charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (April)/ Manufacturing Sales Prel (March)/ Budget Balance FEV

·       Brazil Bank Lending (March)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (April)/ Net Payrolls (March)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       USA PCE Price Index (March)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/26)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Bank of Japan board will meet to discuss and decide interest rates, Japan Tokyo CPI (April)/

·       Australia PPI (Q1)/ Import and Export Prices (Q1)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (April)IL

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Malaysia PPI (March)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (March)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/19)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Berlin, Germany, to discuss the situation in Ukraine and additional military support for the Ukrainian military.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area M3 Money Supply (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (March)

·       France Consumer Confidence (April)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (March)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate (Q1)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (March)

·       Greece Total Credit (March)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Business Confidence (April)/ Real Wage Growth (February)/ Retail Sales (March)/ GDP (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (April)

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (March)

Saturday, April 27, 202 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The White House Correspondents’ Association Annual Diner is held in Washington, D.C. President Biden will address the audience.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Slovenia celebrates the Day of Uprising Against Occupation, commemorating the day when the Liberation Front of the Slovene Nation was formed in 1941 to fight the Nazi occupation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Sierra Leon’s Independence  Day, celebrating when the country gained its independence from the UK in 19671.

·       Togo celebrates Independence Day, marking the day in when the Togolese Republic was established in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 28, 2024

Global

·       G7 Climate, Energy, and Environmental Ministers meet in Torino, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexico’s three presidential candidates will participate in the 2nd televised presidential debate, which will focus on economic development, infrastructure building, and employment.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds by-elections for three seats in the Diet’s lower chamber. The elections come at a time when the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are at record-low poll numbers due to the handling of a political slush fund scandal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Democratic Republic of Congo holds elections for provincial governors and vice governors.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

April 14 - 21, 2024

Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel is sending shockwaves globally and is likely to scare global markets when they open on Monday morning.   It also makes the coming week highly unpredictable in terms of what to expect.  It was already scheduled to be a very busy week, with the IMF-World Bank Spring meetings in Washington, the G7 Foreign Ministers scheduled to meet in Italy, and India’s massive six-week-long parliamentary elections getting underway (estimated 900 million+ voters). 

Now, world leader’s calendars are being scrambled – especially among the G7 leaders – as they seek to find a way to calm the situation in the Middle East.   But it is likely they will not be successful as Israel prepares for a likely massive strike-back at Iran. At this point, we see little chance of Israel not massively striking Iran, likely targeting Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities, oil facilities, and leadership in Tehran.  We are watching the situation closely and sending our clients essential updates and insights.

The attack may have finally gotten the U.S. House of Representatives focused on finally passing a large military aid package for Israel, which is attached to a $62 billion Ukraine aid package.  We expect the bill to pass the House this week.

Also in the U.S. this week, former President Donald Trump’s criminal trial in New York gets underway, the first time a current or former President has ever been tried for a crime.

As mentioned above, India’s much-anticipated national parliamentary elections get underway. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata (BJP) Party is expected to perform strongly, giving Modi a solid mandate to push through sweeping reforms in the coming year.   Out of a population of 1.4 billion, voter turnout is expected to reach 75 percent – more than 900 million Indians voting.

On the global economic radar screen this week, markets will be primarily focused on U.S. data releases after last week’s unexpectedly strong inflation print.

U.S. industrial production, retail sales, and the publication of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will be among the most watched reports.

In Asia, Japan releases its CPI print, while in China, the latest Q1 GDP data is released.  Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation figures and the ZEW survey results will be released in Europe.

Below is everything else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, April 14, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is expected to meet today in an extraordinary session to discuss Iran’s attack on Israel on Saturday and Sunday morning.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

• New Zealand Services & Composite NZ PCI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 15, 2024 

Global

• IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings begin today.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• A jury trial for Donald Trump is scheduled to start. The former president is charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records to facilitate a payment to adult actress Stormy Daniels, who claimed she had an affair with Trump in 2006.

• Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala meets with President Biden at the White House.  They are expected to “reaffirm their resolute support for Ukraine.”   Later in the day, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Sudani is scheduled to meet with President Biden (but this may be rescheduled due to Iran’s attack on Israel on Saturday).

• The Colombian government and the National Liberation Army will hold peace negotiations in Venezuela through April 22.

• Chile will host the seventh meeting of the Forum of the Countries of Latin America and the Caribbean on Sustainable Development in Santiago. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to participate in panel before the IMF-BOJ Conference: “Gender Diversity in the Workplace as a Key to Economic Growth."

• San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to speak before hybrid Associates Meeting of the 2024 Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR).

• USA Retail Sales (March)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)/ Business Inventories (February)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (April)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Daly Speech

• Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (February)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

• Canada Manufacturing Sales Final (February)

• Colombia Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

• Paraguay Consumer Confidence (March)

• El Salvador Inflation Rate (March)

• Peru GDP Growth Rate (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Machinery Orders (February)

• India WPI Food Index (March)/ WPI Fuel (March)/ WPI Inflation (March)/ WPI Manufacturing (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

• Philippines Consumer Confidence Q1

• Indonesia Passenger Vehicles Sales (March)

• Kazakhstan Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

• Sri Lanka Services & Manufacturing PMI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Energy Ministers will hold an informal meeting in Brussels from April 16 to discuss how to advance sustainable energy infrastructure. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a lecture at the University College Dublin Economics Society in Dublin, Ireland.

• Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a keynote speech at the Innovate Finance Global Summit 2024 in London.

• Ireland Construction PMI (March)

• Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (March)

• Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)

• Poland Inflation Rate Final (March)

• Euro Area Industrial Production (February)

• Russia Building Permits (February)

• Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

• Ukraine Balance of Trade (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (March)/ Wholesale Prices (March)

• Israel Unemployment Rate (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

• Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

• Oman M2 Money Supply (February)/ Total Credit (February)

• Kuwait M2 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

• Turkey Unemployment Rate (February)/ Participation Rate (February)/ Budget Balance (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria Inflation Rate (March)

• Ethiopia Inflation Rate (March)

Tuesday, April 16, 2024

Global

• IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings continue. 

• The IMF releases its World Economic Outlook along with Chapter 1 of its global financial stability report.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on the charges used against the 330 defendants accused and convicted of storming the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.

• Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland presents the annual state budget to parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell participates in a moderated with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada at the Washington Forum on the Canadian Economy, Washington, D.C.

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Monetary Policy During Periods of Uncertainty” at the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy, Washington, D.C.

• Canada Housing Starts (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI Median (March)

• USA Housing Starts (March)/ Redbook (April/13)/ Capacity Utilization (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/12)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is on a state visit to China, is scheduled to meet Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang and President Xi Jinping.

• The Digital Silk Road Development Forum is being held in Xi'An, China.

• Philippine transport unions will hold nationwide strikes through April 16 and possibly beyond.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Import & Export Prices (March)

• China House Price Index (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)CH/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q1/ NBS Press Conference

• Indonesia Consumer Confidence (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

• New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/16)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The National Conservatism conference starts today and runs until tomorrow. Speakers include Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, former UK Home Secretary Suella Braverman, and GB News host Nigel Farage.

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen will give a speech at the High-level Conference on the European Pillar of Social Rights in La Hulpe, Belgium.

• Ukraine and Bulgaria will hold the second Black Sea Security Conference in Sofia, Bulgaria. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany Wholesale Prices (March)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)/ ZEW Current Conditions (April)

• Great Britain Unemployment Rate (February)/ Claimant Count Change (March)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (March)

• Italy Inflation Rate Final (March)/ Balance of Trade (February)

• Euro Area Balance of Trade (February)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)

• Ireland Balance of Trade (February)

• Poland Core Inflation Rate (March)

• Belarus Industrial Production (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4

• Oman Inflation Rate (March)

• Qatar Inflation Rate (March)

• Turkey Retail Sales (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Forum on People of African Descent organized by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights will take place in Geneva, Switzerland through April 19.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, April 17, 2024 

Global

• IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings.  G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet.

• The G7 Foreign Ministers meet in Capri, Italy. They will discuss Iran’s attack on Israel, the situation in Gaza, and the Ukraine War.

• The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the Maintenance of international peace and security: The role of young persons in addressing security challenges in the Mediterranean. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East. 

• The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) is expected to release its State of World Population 2024 report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (“Lula”) travels to Colombia to meet with President Gustavo Petro.  They are expected to discuss protecting the Amazon, other environmental issues, the upcoming Venezuelan elections, and the Venezuelan suppression of opposition candidates.

• The Semafor World Economy Summit will be held in Washington, D.C., from April 18 to 20. Several leading global CEOs, senior government officials, and central bankers will speak at the summit.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve  Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a Fireside Chat at the Institute for International Finance (IIF) Global Outlook Forum, Washington, D.C.

• Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to speak on "An Update From the Federal Reserve" before the South Franklin Circle Dialogues Series.

• USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April)/12/ MBA Purchase Index (April/12)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (April/12)/ Fed Beige Book/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (February)/ Foreign Bond Investment (February)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (February)

• Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (February)

• Brazil Business Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The Solomon Islands holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand Inflation Rate Q1

• Japan Reuters Tankan Index (April)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

• Singapore Non-Oil Exports (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (March)

• Indonesia Retail Sales (February)

• Philippines Cash Remittances (February)

• India M3 Money Supply (April/05)

• China FDI (YTD) (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• A special European Council meeting will be held in Brussels through April 18. The participants are expected to discuss a new European competitiveness deal and relations with Turkey.

• Croatia holds parliamentary elections.

  Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone participates virtually in the Executive Committee meeting of the Italian Banking Association (ABI).

• ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone will participate in a conversation with Institute for International Finance Executive Vice President Clay Lowery at the 2024 IIF Global Outlook Forum in Washington, D.C.

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a keynote speech at the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy (IRFMP): "Monetary Policy Challenges During Uncertain Times" in Washington, D.C.

• Great Britain Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI Input & Output (March)/ Retail Price Index (March)

• Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (March)

• Euro Area Inflation Rate Final (March)/ CPI Final (March)

• Ireland Residential Property Prices (February)

• Russia PPI (March)

• Belarus GDP (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel M1 Money Supply (March)

• Turkey Current Account (February)/ Auto Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Southern and East Africa LPG Expo, which seeks to advance liquified petroleum gas as clean cooking energy in the subregion, begins in Mozambique.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

• Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

Thursday, April 18, 2024 

Global

IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the Middle East.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. OFAC licensing for the Venezuelan oil industry is scheduled to expire, placing sanctions back on the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives opening remarks at the 2024 New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference (Virtual)

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in a moderated discussion before the Semafor World Economy Summit.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on the economic outlook in a moderated armchair chat before the Prosperity Partnership Fort Lauderdale Meeting.  Later in the day, Bostic will speak on the economic outlook, monetary policy and real estate in a moderated armchair chat at the University of Miami Herbert Business School.

• USA Initial Jobless Claims (April/13)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (April)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (April)/ Philly Fed Employment (April)/ Philly Fed New Orders (April)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (April)/Existing Home Sales (March)/ CB Leading Index  (March)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/12)/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/17)/ 5-Year TIPS Auction

• Colombia ISE Economic Activity (February)

• Argentina Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japanese Central Bank Member of the Policy Board Asahi Noguchi will give a speech and meet with local leaders in Saga, Japan.

• Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/13)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/13)

• Australia Employment Change (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ RBA Bulletin/ Participation Rate (March)

• Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Consumer Protection Ministers held in Brussels through April 19. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will give a presentation of the ECB Annual Report 2023 at the ECON Committee in Brussels, Belgium.

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give a keynote speech at the 2024 EU-US Symposium in Washington, D.C.

• Euro Area New Car Registrations (March)/ Current Account (February)/ Construction Output (February)

• Switzerland Balance of Trade (March)

• Spain Bonos Auction/ Obligacion Auction

• Italy Current Account (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/12)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Building Permits (February)

Friday, April 19, 2024 

Global

IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference.

• Mexico Retail Sales (February)

• USA Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/19)

• Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• Argentina Leading Indicator (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• India begins the voting for parliamentary elections.   The voting will go on for six weeks.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Inflation Rate (March)/ Tertiary Industry Index (February)

• India Bank Loan Growth (April/05)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/12)/ Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q1/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

• Hong Kong Business Confidence Q2

• Kazakhstan GDP (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden participates on a panel discussion on monetary policy responses to post-pandemic inflation at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.

• Germany PPI (March)

• Great Britain Retail Sales (March)/ BoE Ramsden Speech

• Greece Current Account (February)

• Italy Construction Output (February)

• Spain Balance of Trade (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

• Slovenia PPI (March)

• Russia Current Account (February)

• Slovakia Current Account (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Inflation Expectations (April)/ Inflation Expectations (April)

• Turkey Central Government Debt (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Ghana PPI (March)

Saturday, April 20, 2024 

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Toga holds parliamentary and regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report. 

Sunday, April 21, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Ecuador will hold a series of referendums on reforms to fight organized crime, which has become a major problem for the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Maldives holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Inflation Expectations (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

March 31 - April 7, 2024

Happy belated-Easter! We hope everyone had a joyful and relaxing Easter weekend. Looking at the geopolitical outlook for the coming week, it should be relatively quiet.

We will watch as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi, and a Palestinian territory coordination office representative meet virtually with White House officials and discuss Gaza early next week. The meeting was scheduled for last week, but Netanyahu canceled it after the U.S. allowed the U.N. Security Council to pass a resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. The purpose of the meeting is to discuss the situation in Rafah and if there is any way to push forward a deal for Israeli hostages in return for a ceasefire.

Also this week, NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary. There will be several celebratory events in Brussels this week, as well as important meetings of NATO foreign ministers to discuss further aid and assistance to Ukraine and the situation in Ukraine and the Red Sea.

Beijing will be a busy place this week as a number of foreign ministers and other dignitaries travel to China for meetings with President Xi Jinping and other senior Chinese officials. The list includes Indonesian Defense Minister and President-elect Prabowo Subianto (who is trying to balance a relationship with the U.S. and China), French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne (who is likely laying the groundwork for a visit by President X to France in May), and, most controversially, former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou. The former President, facing considerable criticism at home for the trip, is taking a delegation of young people for a ten-day visit that may include a meeting with President Xi.  

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it is a relatively light reporting week. Markets will be looking at the U.S. jobs report while listening to a large number of Federal Reserve Board Governors and regional Fed Presidents speak—including Fed Chair Jay Powell speaking at Stanford University later this week.  

In Europe, Germany reports CPIs (as does the Eurozone), while the European Central Bank releases minutes of their March meeting. In Asia, Japan releases the Q1 Tankan Survey, while China releases official PMIs for March and the Caixin indicators.

Below is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, March 31, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI (March)/ NBS General PMI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Bulgaria and Romania partially join the Schengen area.

Economic Reports/Events –

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 1, 2024

Global

·       Malta assumes the Chair of the UN Security Council for the month of April.

·       Today is April Fool’s Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Costa Rica, protests are expected by Specialists from the Costa Rican Social Security Fund will protests demanding improvements in their workplace conditions, better infrastructure and competitive salaries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives Acceptance Remarks At the Lifetime Achievement Awards Ceremony, Cook Center at Duke University, Washington, D.C.

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (February)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI & Employment (March)/ Fed Cook Speech

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Monetary Policy Minutes

·       Mexico S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Uruguay Current Account Q4

·       Peru Inflation Rate (March)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou will lead a delegation of Taiwanese young professionals to visit China through April 11.  The trip is seen as highly controversial inside Taiwan and coming under considerable criticism. 

·       Indonesian Defense Minister and President-elect Prabowo Subianto will visit Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China, through April 2.  The two sides will discuss "a joint development model," according to China's Foreign Ministry. Indonesia has maintained friendly relations with China throughout the decadelong tenure of outgoing President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, and Subianto has vowed policy continuity.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q1/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (March)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Business Confidence Q1/ Budget Balance (February)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Current Account Final Q4

·       Kazakhstan Tengri Partners Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (March)/ Wholesale Prices (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne will visit China.  The meeting is seen as a possible prelude to Chinese President Xi Jinping visiting France sometime in May.

·       U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, France. 

·       Russia begins its annual spring military conscription.  President Putin has signed an order increasing the number of men who can be drafted by 150,000.

·       Today is a public holiday for most of Europe.  Markets are closed as are most governments.

·       Today is Cyprus National Day, celebrating when their revolt against the British began in 1955.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Spain New Car Sales (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Deadline for Israel's government to stop funding yeshiva schools that do not comply with conscription orders for ultra-Orthodox men, according to a Supreme Court order.

·       New Zealand's Foreign Minister Winston Peters will meet with Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit in Cairo, Egypt. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (January)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       A South African court will rule on allegations that National Assembly speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula received millions of rands in cash as bribes when she was defense minister.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (March)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (February)

Tuesday, April 2, 2024 

Global

·       The United Nations Human Rights Council discusses the situation in Haiti.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the Day of the Veterans in Argentina, marking the loss of military lives in the Battle of the Falklands in 1982.

·       Also in Argentina, Unemployed Argentinians will block access to tourist sites to oppose the elimination of social programs under the government of President Javier Milei. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives an address entitled “Bank Mergers and Acquisitions, and De Novo Bank Formation: Implications for the Future of the Banking System” at A Workshop on the Future of Banking hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (Virtual).

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to participate in hybrid fireside chat in partnership with the Henderson Chamber of Commerce, Latin Chamber of Commerce Nevada, and Vegas Chamber of Commerce.

·       Brazil Bank Lending (February)/ PPI (February)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (March)

·       USA Redbook (March/30)/ JOLTs Job Openings (February)/ Factory Orders (February)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ Fed Williams Speech/ Fed Mester Speech/ Fed Daly Speech/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (March)/ Total Vehicle Sales (March)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Pakistan holds senatorial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ASEAN finance ministers and central bankers will meet in Laos.

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (March)/ RBA Kent Speech/ RBA Meeting Minutes/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (March)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (March)/ Commodity Prices (March)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/02)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)

·       Philippines PPI (February)

·       Japan 10-Year JGB Auction

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (March)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (March)/ MAS 4 & 12-Week Bill Auction

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda will meet European Council President Charles Michel, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov in Vilnius, Lithuania.  They are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine and security issues in the region.

·       Ukraine and the European Commission will co-host the international conference "Restoring Justice for Ukraine" at the World Forum in The Hague, the Netherlands.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Romania PPI (February)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (March)/ BoE Consumer Credit (February)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (February)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (March)/ M4 Money Supply (February)/ Net Lending to Individuals (February)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (January)/ PPI (February)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (February)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate   Prel (March)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (March)/ 3 6, & 12-Month BTF Auction

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (March)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (March)/ Bavaria CPI (March)/ Brandenburg CPI (March)/ Hesse CPI (March)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (March)/ Saxony CPI (March)/ Inflation Rate Prel (March)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (March)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar GDP Growth Rate Q3 & Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Senegal’s President-elect Bassirou Diomaye Faye is set to become the fifth President of Senegal on Tuesday when he will be sworn in, after winning the March 24 presidential election.

·       In Gabon, a post-coup national dialogue will begin.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (March)

Wednesday, April 3, 2024

Global

·       OPEC+ holds ministerial meetings in Vienna, Austria.

·       The nomination period for the selection of the next managing director of the International Monetary Fund closes.  The incumbent managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, has indicated she wants another five-year term and may have enough support to secure the selection.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives an address entitled “Economic Outlook” at the Stanford Business, Government, and Society Forum, Stanford, California.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives an address entitled “Bank Liquidity, Regulation, and the Fed’s Role as Lender of Last Resort” at the Committee on Capital Markets Regulation Roundtable on Lender of Last Resort, Washington, D.C.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to give opening remarks before virtual Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago event entitled "Preventing Elder Financial Exploitation: Research, Policies, and Strategies.”

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr participates in a discussion on  the Community Reinvestment Act at the Just Economy Conference 2024 in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech entitled “The Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy” at the “Conversation with a Governor of the Federal Reserve Board” in St. Louis, Missouri.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (March)/ Industrial Production (February)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (March)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March)/ ADP Employment Change (March)/ S&P Global Services Composite PMI Final (March)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ ISM Services PMI (March)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (March/29)/ Fed Goolsbee Speech/ Fed Chair Powell Speech/ Fed Barr Speech/ Fed Kugler Speech

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (January)

·       Canada S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (March)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (March)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will celebrate its Qingming (Tomb Sweeping) festival through April 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (March)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (March)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (March)/ URA Property Index   Prel Q1

·       China Caixin Services & Composite PMI (March)

·       Kazhkstan Tengri Partners Services PMI (March)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (March)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (February)

·       India M3 Money Supply (March/22)

·       Sri Lanka Current Account Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       A NATO foreign ministers meeting will take place in Brussels, Belgium, through April 4, coinciding with the alliance's 75th anniversary.

·       The sixth U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council summit will take place in Leuven, Belgium, through April 5. 

·       Belarus will hold legislative elections for its upper house. 

·      There will be an informal meeting of EU Transport Ministers through April 4 in Brussels.

·      Italian port workers will hold nationwide strikes through April 5.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Business Confidence (March)/ Corporate Profits (January)/ Real Wage Growth (January)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       France Budget Balance (February)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)/ PPI (March)/ Auto Sales (March)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate   Flash (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ CPI Flash (March)/ 3 & 6-Month Bill Auction

·       Italy New Car Registrations (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (March)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (March)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (March)

·       Kuwait National Assembly Election

·       Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (March)

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (March)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Nigeria Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, April 4, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden will host Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis in Washington, D.C.  They are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine, the situation in Gaza, and bilateral defense issues as well as energy efforts. 

·       Today is the deadline for former President Donald Trump to post a $175 million bond as part of his civil fraud case in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech entitled “Enriching Data and Analysis in Economics with Real Life Experiences.” at the Women in Economics Symposium in St. Louis, Missouri.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem to give introductory remarks before the 2024 Women in Economics Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to participate in conversation on the economic outlook before the virtual Global Interdependence Center Executive Briefing.

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Brazil Current Account (February)/ Foreign Direct Investment (February)/ Car Production (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Initial Jobless Claims (March/30)/ 4 & 8-Week Bill Auction/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/03)/ Fed Goolsbee Speech/ Fed Mester Speech/ Fed Musalem Speech/ Fed Kugler Speech

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (March)

·       Colombia Exports (February)/ PPI (March)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (February)

·       Australia Judo Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (March)/ RBA Jones Speech/ Retail Sales Final (February)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (March/30)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/30)/ 30-Year JGB Auction

·       India HSBC Services & Composite PMI Final (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (February)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (March)/ HCOB Services & Composite PMI (March)/ 10 & 15-Year Obligacion Auction

·       Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMI (March)

·       France HCOB Services & Composite PMI Final (March)/ 10, 20, & 30-Year OAT Auction

·       Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMI Final (March)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services & Composite PMI Final (March)/ PPI (February)/ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (March)/ HCOB Services & Composite PMI Final (March)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (February)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/29)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (April)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Kuwait holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (March)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (March)/ Composite Economic Index (February)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Senegal Independence Day, marking the day the country gained its independence in 1960 from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (March)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (March)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (March)

·       Tanzania Interest Rate Decision

Friday, April 5, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hosts Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa in Ottawa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins to give welcome remarks before the virtual Conference on the Financial Stability Implications of Stablecoins hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak before the Greater Baltimore Committee.  His speech is entitled "Pulse Check: The Scorecard Summit 2024.”

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Risks and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy: Current & Past Considerations” at the Shadow Open Market Committee Spring Meeting in New York.

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (February)/ Nominal Budget Balance (February)

·       Mexico Auto Exports & Production (March)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (March)/ Ivey PMI s.a (March)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (March)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ Fed Bowman Speech/ Consumer Credit Change (February)/ Used Car Prices (March)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (March)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Panama Current Account Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (February)

·       Japan Household Spending (February)/ 3-Month Bill Auction/ Coincident Index Prel (February)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (March)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Thailand Core Inflation Rate (March)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Bank Loan Growth (March/22)/ Deposit Growth (March/22)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/29)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President von der Leyen will host Secretary of State Blinken and Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan for development “trilateral cooperation” talks in Brussels. 

·       The UK train driver’s union, Aslef, will go on strike on the west coast.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Factory Orders (February)/ Import Prices (February)/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)

·       Romania Retail Sales (February)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (March)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (March)

·       Hungary Industrial Production   Prel (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       France Industrial Production (February)/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (February)

·       Spain Industrial Production (February)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (March)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (February)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ GDP Growth Rate   Q4

·       Serbia PPI (March)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan PPI (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (February)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Saturday, April 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Slovakia will hold the second round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 7, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Poland holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

March 25 - 31, 2024

The coming week should be relatively quiet as the Easter holiday is next weekend and many governments scaling back their activities for the holiday and with major financial markets being closed for Good Friday.   But we live in strange times and, considering the horrid ISIS attack in Moscow killing at least 137 people this past week, we will be watching closely to see what Russian President Vladimir Putin does to retaliate against ISIS (wherever he can find them) and, unfortunately, Ukraine whom he keeps blaming for facilitating the attack.

Also this week, we will be watching for a possible meeting between Chinese President Xi Jingping and US CEOs in Beijing.  The meeting may or may not happen, according to Chinese sources, but if it does happen, it will be interesting to hear Xi’s appeal to the CEOs to continue doing business in China and how he sees the nation’s economic situation.

In the US, Monday is the deadline for former President Donald Trump to come up with enough money to pay a guarantee on the $464 million fine imposed on him by a New York Court or begin having his properties seized by the New York Attorney General.   Congress is out of session this coming week and the following week, too. 

On the economic radar screen this week, the two big events of the week which markets will be watching closely is the US inflation data release and the Bank of Japan’s release of their summary of opinions (could more rate increases be coming to Japan or was this a “one and done” event by the BoJ?).    There will also be a number of sentiment survey releases in the EU, Asia, and the Conference Board survey in the US.

There are only a few central bank speeches of note this week – the most prominent being this coming Friday when Fed Chair Jay Powell participates in the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference.

Below is everything else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, March 24, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• El Salvador Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The China Development Forum will host CEOs of major global corporations in Beijing through March 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal meeting of EU fisheries ministers in Brussels through March 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Composite Economic Index (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Senegal is scheduled to hold presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 25, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the deadline for Donald Trump to find a private company to guarantee the $464mn he has been ordered to pay in a separate New York civil fraud case.

• Guatemalan President Bernardo Arevalo will meet with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington, United States, to discuss migration and other issues. 

• Today is the deadline for candidates to register for the presidential election in Venezuela.  However, the government keeps disqualifying everyone who wants to run.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “The Dual Mandate and the Balance of Risks” at Ec10b: Principles of Economics Lecture in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will participate in a moderated conversation on “Equitable Economic Development" before the University of Cincinnati Real Estate Center's March Roundtable.

• Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee will be interviewed on Yahoo Finance.

• Brazil Current Account (February)/ Foreign Direct Investment (February)

• Canada Manufacturing Sales Prel (February)

• USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (February)/ New Home Sales (February)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ Fed Cook Speech/ 3 & 6-Month Bill Auction/ 2-Year Note Auction/ Building Permits Final (February)

• Colombia Business Confidence (February)

• Argentina Current Account Q12 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Sri Lankan Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena will visit China through March 30.

• India celebrates Holi today.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Coincident Index Final (January)/ Leading Economic Index Final (January)

• Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• Malaysia Inflation Rate (February)/ Coincident Index (January)/ Leading Index (January)

• Singapore Core Inflation Rate (February)/ CPI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

• Taiwan Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

• Sri Lanka PPI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Greece celebrates Independence Day.  Financial markets are closed.

• The EU Environmental Council will meet in Brussels.  They will discuss a proposal to revise the waste framework directive, focusing on the textile and food sectors.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board President Christine Lagarde participates in the EIB Group Climate and Environment Advisory Council in Luxembourg.

• Ireland Consumer Confidence (March)

• Spain PPI (February)/ Consumer Confidence (February)

• Poland Unemployment Rate (February)

• Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (February)

• Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (March)

• France 3, 6, & 12-Month BTF Auction

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Israel celebrates the festival of Shushan Purim.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Manufacturing Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The African Union’s Pan-African Parliament will hold elections for president, first vice president, and fourth vice president of the bureau.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Consumer Confidence Q1

• Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (February)

• Ghana Interest Rate Decision

• Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (March)

Tuesday, March 26, 2024 

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the Middle East. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 1540 Committee. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, will give a speech on the need to improve Canadian productivity.

• Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ Bank Lending (February)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

• Canada BoC Rogers Speech/ Wholesale Sales Prel (February)

• USA Durable Goods Orders/ Ex Transp/ ex Defense (February)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (February)/ Redbook (March 23)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (January)/ House Price Index (January)/ CB Consumer Confidence (March)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Manufacturing Shipments and Services Index (March)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (March)/ 5-Year Note Auction/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March 22)

• Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

• Argentina Economic Activity (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China hosts the annual Boao Forum for Asia returns to its permanent location in Hainan in southern China. Former Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda and Las Vegas Sands Chairman and CEO Robert Goldstein are among the delegates expected at the four-day international meeting to discuss economic and geopolitical issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (March)

• Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change & Index (March)/ RBA Connolly Speech

• Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

• Singapore Industrial Production (February)/ 5-Year Bond Auction/ MAS 4 & 12-Week Bill Auction

• Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• Thailand New Car Sales (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels through April 2. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a Trinity Student Economic Review event at Trinity College Dublin, Ireland.

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (April)/ 5 & 10-Year Bund/g Auction

• Spain GDP Growth Rate Final Q4

• Great Britain 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction

• Italy 6-Month BOT Auction

• Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (March)/ Inflation Report/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

• Kuwait M2 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• South Africa's Independent Election Commission will unveil the provisional list of candidates partaking in the country's May 29 general election.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (January)

• Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, March 27, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook” at the Economic Club of New York Reception, in New York.

• USA House Price Index (January)/ MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate/ Applications/ Market Index/ Refinance Index/ Purchase Index (March 22)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks, Gasoline Stocks, Oil Imports, Cushing Crude Oil Stocks, Distillate Fuel Production, Distillate Stocks, Gasoline Production, Heating Oil Stocks, Refinery Crude Runs Change (March 22)/ 17-Week Bill Auction/ 2-Year FRN Auction/ 7-Year Note Auction/ Fed Waller Speech

• Brazil IGP-M Inflation (March)/ Gross Debt to GDP (February)/ Nominal Budget Balance (February)/ Net Payrolls (February)

• Mexico Balance of Trade (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

• Argentina Consumer Confidence (March)

• Canada 10-Year Bond Auction

• Russia Industrial Production (February)/ GDP (January)

• Colombia Cement Production (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

• Costa Rica GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China’s President Xi Jinping is tentatively scheduled to meet with US CEOs in Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura will give a speech to local leaders in Aomori, Japan.

• South Korea Business Confidence (March)

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (February)/ Monthly CPI Indicator (February)

• New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (March)

• China Industrial Profits (YTD) (February)

• Taiwan Consumer Confidence (March)

• Japan 40-Year JGB Auction

• Malaysia PPI (February)

• Singapore 6-Month T-Bill Auction

• Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech on monetary policy followed by Q&A at the House of the Euro in Brussels, Belgium.

• ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech and participates on a panel discussion at the “High-level Remarks on Climate-related Financial Risks” event organized by Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) and the Brazilian Federation of Banks (FEBRABAN) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

• Hungary Current Account Q4/ Unemployment Rate (February)

• France Consumer Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (February)/ Jobseekers Total (February)

• Slovakia Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

• Spain Inflation Rate Prel (March)/ Core Inflation Rate Prel (March)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate Prel (March)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Current Account (January)/ Business Confidence (March)

• Italy Construction Output (January)/ 10-Year BTP Auction/ 5-Year BTP Auction

• Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (March)

• Euro Area Economic Sentiment (March)/ Consumer Confidence Final (March)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)/ Industrial Sentiment (March)/ Selling Price Expectations (March)/ Services Sentiment (March)

• Germany 7-Year Bund Auction

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Qatar GDP Growth Rate for Q3 & Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The UN Economic Commission for Africa and The African Peer Review Mechanism will hold a retreat in Lusaka, Zambia, to discuss the launch of the African Credit Rating Agency. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

• Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, March 28, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva meets his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron in the presidential palace in Brasília on a state visit.  Macron and Lula are going to try to hammer a long-delayed EU-Mercosur Free Trade deal.

• Today is the sentencing of former chief executive of cryptocurrency exchange FTX Sam Bankman-Fried, convicted by a federal jury of conspiracy to commit wire fraud, conspiracy to commit commodities fraud, conspiracy to commit securities fraud, and conspiracy to commit money laundering.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Canada CFIB Business Barometer (March)/ GDP (January)/ GDP Prel (February)/ Average Weekly Earnings (January)

• Brazil Unemployment Rate (February)

• Chile Copper Production (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

• USA GDP Growth Rate Final Q4/ Corporate Profits Q4/ GDP Price Index Final Q4/ Initial Jobless Claims (March 23)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (March 16)/ Core PCE Prices Final Q4/ GDP Sales Final Q4/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (March 23)/ PCE Prices Final Q4/ Real Consumer Spending Final Q4/ Chicago PMI (March)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (March)/ Pending Home Sales  (February)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final (March)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations Final (March)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (March)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Final (March)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March 22)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (March)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ 4 & 8-Week Bill Auction/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March 27)/ Prospective Plantings – Corn, Cotton, Soy, Wheat 2024/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn, Soy, Wheat (March)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (March 29)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (March 29)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (March)

• Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions, Foreign Bond Investment (March 23), Stock Investment by Foreigners (March 23)

• Australia Housing Credit (February)/ Retail Sales Prel (February)/ Private Sector Credit (February)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

• Singapore Bank Lending (February), Export Prices (February), Import Prices (February), PPI (February)

• Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (March)

• India Current Account Q4/ External Debt Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Polish and Ukrainian leaders are scheduled to meet to discuss ongoing tensions over Polish farmers who are blocking Ukrainian produce at the border.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Great Britain Car Production (February)/ Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q4/ Business Investment Final Q4

• Germany Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployed Persons (March)/ Unemployment Change (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

• Turkey Economic Confidence Index (March)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March 22)

• Hungary Gross Wage (January)

• Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (March)

• Euro Area Loans to Companies (February)/ Loans to Households (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

• Italy Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ PPI (February)

• Slovenia Retail Sales (February)

• Greece Total Credit (February)

• Ireland Retail Sales (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q4/ M3 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

• Israel M1 Money Supply (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa M3 Money Supply (February)/ Private Sector Credit (February)/ PPI (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Budget Balance (February)

• Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Friday, March 29, 2024 

Global

• Today is Good Friday.  Most financial markets in Western nations are closed.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly gives welcome remarks before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference.

• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to participate in moderated discussion before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference.

• USA Core PCE Price Index (February) / Personal Income (February)/ Personal Spending (February)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (February)/ PCE Price Index (February)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv (February)/ Wholesale Inventories Adv (February)/

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

• Japan Unemployment Rate (February)/ Jobs/applications ratio (February)/ Tokyo Core CPI (March)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (March)/ Tokyo CPI (March)/ Industrial Production Prel (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Industrial Production Prel (February)/ 2-Year JGB Auction/ Housing Starts (February)/ Construction Orders (February)

• Vietnam Balance of Trade (March), Foreign Direct Investment (March), GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

• Thailand Industrial Production (February)/ Current Account (February)/ Private Consumption & Investment (February)

• Malaysia M3 Money Supply (February)

• China Current Account Final Q4

• India Government Budget Value (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March 22)/ Infrastructure Output (February)

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

• Philippines Budget Balance (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the one-year anniversary of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich’s detention by Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (February)

• France Inflation Rate Prel (March)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate Prel (March)/ PPI (February)

• Poland Inflation Rate Prel (March)

• Slovenia CPI (March)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

• Greece PPI (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

• Italy Inflation Rate Prel (March)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate Prel (March)

• Russia Balance of Trade (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ M2 Money Supply (February)

• Ukraine Current Account (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria Unemployment Rate Q4

• Kenya Inflation Rate (March)

Saturday, March 30, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 31, 2024

Global

• Today is Easter Sunday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI (March)/ NBS General PMI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Turkey holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

March 10 - 17, 2024

The coming week is another busy week of bilateral meetings between world leaders. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz may win the award for most meetings, hosting the leaders of the Philippines, Indonesia, and a number of other nations. But the most important meeting may be when President Biden hosts the Polish Prime Minister and President on Monday, where the discussion will focus on how to get the US Congress to move on passage of critically needed Ukrainian military aid.

The situation in Gaza will continue to dominate many of these meetings as Ramadan begins tonight and hope for a cease fire and release of hostages seems to be dimming.

The US Congress continues to grind through the long-overdue budget process, getting a number of individual bills this past week and now begins focusing on the final package of appropriations bills this week. The question as to whether the House of Representatives will get to considering that aide package to Ukraine (as well as aid to Israel and Taiwan) remains completely unclear as of this writing.

Also this week, Russia holds presidential elections. Incumbent Vladimir Putin really has no opposition as he faces three friendly candidates. The one candidate who was not friendly, Boris Nadezhdin, was banned from running.

Portugal is also holding snap elections this week and markets will be watching to see if the far-right pulls off a surprise power-play. As of this writing, the vote looks to be close with a center-right coalition likely to win.

Looking to Asia, the China’s National People’s Congress finishes its meetings on Monday. The question markets are asking is if there will be an agreement coming out of the Congress to ramp up stimulus to help get the nation’s economy back on track or if President Xi will let the economy alone to figure out how to right size itself.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, in the US CPI data and retail sales will be released this week, giving markets (and the Federal Reserve) a clearer sense if inflation is ticking back up or not.

Looking at the EU, the UK will be releasing GDP figures which come a week in advance of the next Bank of England interest rate decision. In Asia, Japan will be releasing PPI figures and China will be announcing its 1-year MLF rate.

Below is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, March 10, 2024

Global

• Ramadan begins for Muslims around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The Academy Awards are held at the Dolby Theater in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The U.S. and South Korean militaries will hold their annual Freedom Shield exercise through March 14.

• Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh will pay official visits to Australia and New Zealand through March 11.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Portugal holds snap parliamentary elections. The elections come in the wake of the resignation of Prime Minister Antonio Costa, who is under investigation for corruption.

• Italy holds regional elections.

• India and four European countries will sign a trade and investment agreement.  Worth an estimated $100 billion over 15 years.  The deal is with Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the deadline Israel has given Hamas to release all hostages.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Final Q4, Industrial Production (January)

• Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q4

• Egypt Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Rwanda inflation (February).

Monday, March 11, 2024

Global

• Today is the 4th anniversary of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaring COVID-19 a pandemic.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Implementation of Note S/2017/507: Working methods. In the afternoon, there will be a briefing on the Middle East.

• The OECD holds its 9th Investment Treaty Conference – Supporting the Global Energy Transition, in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Biden will formally submit his budget to Congress for consideration.

• US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo leads a U.S. delegation of the Presidential Trade and Investment Mission to the Philippines through March 12. The high-level delegation aims to spur U.S. investment in various sectors in the Philippines, such as energy, critical minerals, and infrastructure, fostering mutually beneficial economic growth.

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will meet with the heads of diplomatic missions of Latin American and Caribbean countries. 

• U.S. Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo will visit South Africa through March 15. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (February), NY Fed Treasury Purchases 4.5 to 7 yrs., 3- & 6-Month Bill Auction, 3-Year Note Auction

• El Salvador PPI (February)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China’s National People’s Congress finishes today.

• Today is the Hindu Saka New Year holiday. Financial markets closed until March 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan GDP Growth Annualized Final Q4, GDP Growth Rate Final Q4, GDP Capital Expenditure Final Q4, GDP External Demand Final Q4, GDP Price Index Final Q4, GDP Private Consumption Final Q4, Machine Tool Orders (February)

• Philippines Foreign Direct Investment DEC

• India Passenger Vehicles Sales (February), Car Sales (February)

• China Vehicle Sales (February)

• Indonesia Motorbike Sales (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The Eurogroup will meet in Brussels.  They will discuss Macroeconomic developments and fiscal policy in the euro area in 2025, issue a Statement on the future of the Capital Markets Union, and begin coordination on preparing for the Euro Summit later in the month.

• Today is  Commonwealth Day.  A memorial service will be held at Westminster Abbey, involving the 56 member countries and members of the British royal family in the annual celebration of the global network.

• A flag-raising ceremony to mark the accession of the Kingdom of Sweden to NATO will take place at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.

• The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council meets in Brussels through March 12.  They are expected to discuss working conditions for platform workers, as well as the implementation of the European Pillar of Social Rights in the context of the European Semester 2024 and the future social agenda. Additionally, they will endorse the opinion of the Employment Committee and of the Social Protection Committee on the EU’s future policy priorities for the European Pillar of Social Rights, approve conclusions on the 2024 annual sustainable growth survey and the joint employment report, and approve key messages from the Employment Committee on the implementation of the Council recommendation ‘A Bridge to Jobs – Reinforcing the Youth Guarantee.’

• Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim makes his first official visit to Germany and will meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

• Today is the 20th anniversary of the 2004 Madrid train bombings, which killed nearly 200 people.

• Today is Independence Restoration Day in Lithuania, celebrating when the country gained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1990.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in the Eurogroup meeting in Brussels, Belgium.

• Ireland Construction PMI (February)

• Romania Balance of Trade (January)

• Turkey Unemployment Rate (January), Participation Rate (January), Retail Sales (January)

• Spain Retail Sales (January)

• Switzerland Consumer Confidence (February)

• Slovenia Industrial Production (January)

• Germany 3- and 9-Month Bubill Auction

• Belarus Inflation Rate (February)

• France 3-, 6-, & 12-Month BTF Auction

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Mozambique Inflation Rate (February)

Tuesday, March 12, 2024 

Global

• OPEC Monthly Report

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the cooperation between the United Nations and regional and subregional organizations (EU).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Biden will host Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Polish President Andrzej Duda at the White House.  They are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine, the Russian threat to Poland, and the situation in Gaza. The meeting comes on the 25th anniversary of Poland’s accession to NATO.

• There will be an emergency meeting of Canada, the US, and the CARICOM bloc to discuss what to do to deal with the crisis in Haiti.

• Department of Justice Special Counsel Robert Hur will testify before the House of Representatives on his handling of the probe of President Joe Biden.

• Presidential primaries are held in Hawaii, Georgia, Missouri, and Washington State.

• In Argentina, left-wing groups have called for protests against President Javier Milei’s austerity policies. Although roadblocks are banned in Buenos Aires, the groups are vowing to ignore the ban.

• Sweden’s King Carl XVI Gustaf and Queen Silvia arrive for a three-day state visit at the invitation of Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

Economic Reports/Events –

• USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (February), Core Inflation Rate (February), Inflation Rate (February), CPI (February), Redbook Mar/09, 10-Year Note Auction, Monthly Budget Statement (February), API Crude Oil Stock Change Mar/08

• Brazil Inflation Rate (February), Business Confidence (March)

• Mexico Industrial Production (January)

• Ecuador Balance of Trade (January)

• Paraguay Balance of Trade (February)

• Argentina Inflation Rate (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister & Foreign Minister Winston Peters will travel to New Delhi, India for meetings with Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar.  Peters will also travel to Ahmedabad for meetings with the political leadership of Gujarat Patel

• International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, led by Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi, will inspect the Fukushima Plant in Japan and meet with Japanese officials.

• Bangladesh, following widespread protests, is expected to begin cracking down on food prices as part of Ramadan.

• The ASEAN Forum on Taxation takes place in Luang Prabang, Laos.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (February)

• Australia RBA Hunter Speech, NAB Business Confidence (February), Building Permits Final (January), Private House Approvals Final (January)

• Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q1, PPI (February)

• Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

• Malaysia Industrial Production (January)

• India Industrial Production (January), Inflation Rate (February), Manufacturing Production (January)

• Singapore MAS 4- & 12-Week Bill Auction

• China New Yuan Loans (February), M2 Money Supply (February), Outstanding Loan Growth (February), Total Social Financing (February)

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council will meet in Brussels.  They will seek to approve guidelines for the 2025 EU budget and to adopt its recommendation on the 2022 budget discharge.  Ministers will also discuss the Recovery and Resilience Facility and the economic and financial impact of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.  They will also debate with employment and social affairs ministers on social investments and reforms for resilient economies.

• Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. meets with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin to discuss mutual trade and security issues. Marcos will then visit the Czech Republic through March 15.

• Members of the EU Parliament will meet with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden and the Belgian Presidency to outline their expectations for the upcoming EU Summit (March 21-22), which is set to focus on the Ukraine War, the War in Gaza, and overall EU security and defense policy.

• The EU Parliament is expected to adopt the Artificial Intelligence Act, which aims to ensure that AI is trustworthy, safe, and respects EU fundamental rights. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in the ECOFIN meeting in Brussels, Belgium.

• ECB Claudia Buch gives a keynote speech at the Morgan Stanley Financial Conference 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

• The Bank of England Financial Policy Committee meets.

• Germany Inflation Rate Final (February), CPI (February), Harmonized Inflation Rate Final (February), 2-Year Schatz Auction

• Turkey Industrial Production (January), Current Account (January)

• Great Britain Unemployment Rate (January), Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (January), Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (January), Employment Change (January), Claimant Count Change (February), HMRC Payrolls Change (February), 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction

• Slovakia Construction Output (January)

• Spain 3- & 9-Month Letras Auction

• Italy 12-Month BOT Auction

• Russia Balance of Trade (January), CPI (February), Inflation Rate (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Current Account Q4

• Jordan PPI (January)

• Oman M2 Money Supply (January), Total Credit (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Africa eGovernance Conference will take place in Kigali, Rwanda. It will bring together decision-makers to discuss the future of African digital governance.

• Today is Independence Day in Mauritius.  The day marks the day the country won its independence from the UK in 19689.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Angola Wholesale Prices (February), Inflation Rate (February)

Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Global

• The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on peacebuilding and sustaining peace: Promoting conflict prevention – Empowering all actors, including women and youth.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate /MBA Mortgage Applications/MBA Mortgage Market Index/MBA Mortgage Refinance Index/MBA Purchase Index Mar/08, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change/EIA Gasoline Stocks Change/EIA Crude Oil Imports Change/EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change/EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change/EIA Distillate Stocks Change/EIA Gasoline Production Change/EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change/EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change Mar/08, 17-Week Bill Auction, 30-Year Bond Auction

• Uruguay Industrial Production (January)

• Brazil Net Payrolls (January)

• Peru Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Japanese companies are expected to conclude wage negotiations with major labor unions.  The Unions are demanding an average pay rise of 5.85%, the highest increase in 31 years.

• Asia's largest retail show, 2024 ChinaShop, will take place in Shanghai through March 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand Food Inflation (February)

• South Korea Unemployment Rate (February)

• Indonesia Consumer Confidence (February)

• Malaysia Retail Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin in Berlin, Germany.

• The Paris Defense and Strategy Forum is held in Paris through March 14.

Economic Reports/Events –

• The ECB non-monetary policy meeting takes place in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick gives a keynote speech on "Single Supervisory after ten years: Experience and way forward" at Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW) Fixed Income Forum in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives virtual concluding remarks at the conference organized by Osservatori Digital Innovation, Politecnico di Milano in Milan, Italy.

• Romania Industrial Production (January), Inflation Rate (February)

• Great Britain GDP (January), GDP 3-Month Avg (January), Goods Trade Balance (January), Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (January), Industrial Production (January), Manufacturing Production (January), Balance of Trade (January), Construction Output (January), GDP (January), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (February)

• Hungary Industrial Production Final (January), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Euro Area Industrial Production (January)

• Italy 3-, 7-, 15-, 20-, & 30-Year BTP Auction

• Germany 10-Year Bund Auction

• Ireland Residential Property Prices (January)

• Russia Balance of Trade (January), Inflation Rate (February)

• Turkey Auto Production (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nigeria’s Labor Congress has threatened to resume nationwide strikes against the government.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Ethiopia Inflation Rate (January)

• Ghana Inflation (February)

Thursday, March 14, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council, an adoption is scheduled on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) and the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

• G7 Industry, Tech, and Digital Ministers meet in Verona, Italy, through March 15.

• The OECD Global Sustainability Report 2024 will be published.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Brazil Retail Sales (January)

• Canada Manufacturing Sales Final (January), 5-Year Bond Auction

• USA PPI  (February), Retail Sales  (February), Core PPI  (February), Initial Jobless Claims Mar/09, Retail Sales Ex Autos  (February), Continuing Jobless Claims Mar/02, Core PPI  (February), Jobless Claims 4-week Average Mar/09, PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade  (February), Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos  (February), Business Inventories  (January), Retail Inventories Ex Autos  (January), EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change Mar/08, 4- & 8-Week Bill Auction, 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March)/13

• Colombia Consumer Confidence (February)

• Paraguay Consumer Confidence (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• New Zealand’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will travel to Indonesia to meet with Foreign Minister Marsudi in Jakarta.

• The 23rd OECD-ADBI Roundtable on Capital Markets and Financial Reform In Asia takes place in Tokyo, Japan.  

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (January)

• Japan Foreign Bond Investment Mar/09, Stock Investment by Foreigners Mar/09

• Indonesia Retail Sales (January)

• India WPI Food Index YoY/WPI Fuel YoY/WPI Inflation YoY/WPI Manufacturing (February)

• Hong Kong Industrial Production Q4

• Singapore 6-Month T-Bill Auction

• Kazakhstan GDP (February)

• China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• European President Ursula von der Leyden meets with. Aksel V. Johannesen, Prime Minister of the Faroe Islands, together with Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister of Denmark in Tórshavn, Faroes.

• Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg holds a press conference to present his annual report for 2023.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Frank Elderson participates at the European Banking Federation Executive Committee meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the Money Market Contact Group (MMCG) meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Board Member Luis de Guindo gives a fireside chat with Guindos at Foros de Vanguardia in Barcelona, Spain.

• Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (February)

• Hungary Construction Output (January)

• Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (February)

• Spain Core Inflation Rate Final (February), CPI (February), Harmonized Inflation Rate Final (February), Inflation Rate Final (February)

• Ireland CPI (February), Harmonized Inflation Rate Final (February), Inflation Rate (February)

• Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

• Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves Mar/08

• Germany Current Account (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Wholesale Prices (February), Inflation Rate (February)

• Jordan Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Gold Production (January), Mining Production (January), Manufacturing Production (January)

Friday, March 15, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Irish Prime Minister (Taoiseach) Varadkar visits with President Biden in advance of St. Patrick’s Day .

Economic Reports/Events –

• Canada Housing Starts (February), Foreign Securities Purchases/ Purchases by Canadians (January), Wholesale Sales Final (January)

• USA Import/ Export Prices (February), NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (March), Industrial Production (February), Capacity Utilization (February), Manufacturing Production (February), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel/5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel/ Consumer Expectations Prel/ Current Conditions Prel Inflation Expectations Prel (March), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count/ Total Rigs Count Mar/15, NOPA Crush Report

• Colombia Industrial Production (January), Retail Sales (January)

• Peru GDP Growth Rate (January), Unemployment Rate (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• New Zealand’s Deputy Prime Minister & Foreign Minister Winston Peters travels to Singapore for a meeting with Balakrishnan.

• Today is China Consumer Rights Day.  It follows a regular format, with undercover reporters on hidden cameras investigating defective products and services based on complaints from consumers. In the past, foreign brands, including Ford Motor and Muji, were named and shamed, sending company executives scrambling into damage control mode.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Import/Export Prices (February)

• New Zealand Business NZ PMI (February)

• Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

• China House Price Index (February)

• Singapore Unemployment Rate Final Q4

• Philippines Budget Balance (January), Cash Remittances (January)

• Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• Japan Tertiary Industry Index (January)

• Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q4, Manufacturing PMI (February), Services PMI (February)

• India Foreign Exchange Reserves Mar/08, Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• Kazakhstan Industrial Production (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Russia’s presidential elections begin and run through March 17.

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Greenland to meet with Múte I. Bourup Egede, Prime Minister of Greenland, together with Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister of Denmark, in Nuuk, Greenland.

• Today is Memorial Day of the 1848 Revolution in Hungary, commemorating the day when Hungarians rallied against the Austrian Empire.

• Today is Belarus Constitution Day (a real day, but, well, the government does not respect the constitution). 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a guest lecture at Imperial College Business School in London, United Kingdom.

• Germany Wholesale Prices (February)

• France Inflation Rate Final (February), Harmonized Inflation Rate Final (February)

• Slovakia Core Inflation Rate (February), CPI (February), Inflation Rate (February)

• Italy Inflation Rate Final (February), Harmonized Inflation Rate Final (February), Retail Sales (January), Balance of Trade (January)

• Poland Inflation Rate (February), Balance of Trade (January), Current Account (January)

• Greece Construction Output Q4

• Romania Current Account (January)

• Russia Building Permits (January)

• Ukraine Balance of Trade (January)

• Turkey Budget Balance (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria Food Inflation (February)

• Angola Interest Rate Decision, Foreign Exchange Reserves (February), M3 Money Supply (February)

• Ghana Inflation Rate (February)

Saturday, March 16, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Guam holds its Republican presidential primary.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Russian presidential Elections continue.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Angola Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Nigeria Inflation (February)

• Botswana Inflation (February)

• Eswatini Inflation (February)

Sunday, March 17, 2024

Global

• Today is St. Patrick’s Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Maldives holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden, along with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Belgium Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, and Greek Prime Minister Kyrakos Mitsotakis meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in Cairo to sign  The Partnership revolves around six pillars of “mutual interest including political relations, economic stability, investment and trade, migration and mobility, security and demography, and energy cooperation. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

February 25 - March 3, 2024

Sunday, February 25, 2024

This coming week, there will be a keen global focus on the U.S. House of Representatives, which is returning to work after a ten-day break for two big reasons. First, the federal government will begin to shut down on March 1 unless the House can agree on a spending plan this week. Conservative Republicans oppose passing another short-term spending bill (as does Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA).

Secondly, tied up in this ongoing political drama is the question of what the House will do about passing a critical aid package for Ukraine (and Israel and Taiwan) to help shore up the beleaguered nation’s defenses in the face of a mounting Russian counter-attack. The same group of conservative House Republicans are opposed to voting on the package unless there are more robust U.S. border security measures than those negotiated by Republican and Democratic senators earlier this month.   As of this writing, a continued stalemate is likely on the U.S. budget and the Ukraine aid bill – which means a government shutdown is likely.

As uncertainty and concern grow over how to assist Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron has called an ad-hoc meeting of E.U. leaders in Paris on Monday to shore up E.U. support for Ukraine going forward. What comes out of that meeting may impact the U.S. House to speed up consideration of the Ukraine aid package. The meeting also comes the day before The E.U. presents its new Defense Industrial Strategy (EDIS) and European Defense Investment Program (EDIP). Both were developed to help restock and acquire new defense equipment and technology. 

Meanwhile, markets will watch the G20 Finance Minister and Central Bank Governor meetings in São Paul, Brazil, this week. Brazil is the chair of the G20 this year. But it is also a member of the BRICs, and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (“Lula”) is taking advantage of the meeting to gather the BRICS finance ministers and central bank governors together for their first-ever meeting just before the G20 meetings.  

Another major global meeting this week is the 13th Ministerial Conference (MC13) of the World Trade Organization (WTO), held in Abu Dhabi. With all the continuous chatter about the death of globalization and free trade, the meeting outcomes will be closely watched to see just how true or false that chatter has been.

Turning to the global economic radar screen, markets will be looking at the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, the PCE, to give some new indication of when the Fed may begin to lower rates. 

A number of Fed Governor speeches are scheduled this week, too, which may help guide markets a bit more on what to expect.  

In Asia, China releases PMI data, while Japan is scheduled to release CPI data. In Europe, Germany and France are scheduled to release PMI prints and major labor market data releases from across the Eurozone.

Here is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, February 25, 2024:

Global

• Israel is expected to send formal notification to the International Court of Justice in the Hague in response to a Court order last month in the wake of South Africa’s accusations Israel has committed genocide in its invasion of the Gaza Strip.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Cambodia holds senate elections.  Hun Sen, the former Prime Minister and father of the current Prime Minister, is expected to become the Senate President.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Belarus holds parliamentary elections.

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Abu Dhabi through February 29.  The meeting will be held on the margins of the 13th Ministerial Conference (MC13) of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which will be held in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, from 26 to 29 February 2024.

• Junior doctors in the UK begin a five-day walkout over pay.  They are expected to be back by midnight on February 29.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Composite Economic Index

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 26, 2024 

Global

• The World Trade Organization (WTO) holds its 13th Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi.  Among the topics on the agenda are trade and industrial policy.

• UN Secretary-General António Guterres will travel to Geneva, Switzerland, to deliver remarks at the opening of the High-level segment of the 55th session of the Human Rights Council.

• The 6th sixth session of the UN Environment Assembly (UNEA) opens at the UNEP headquarters in Nairobi, Kenya running until March 1.  More than 6,000 participants are registered to attend.

• The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting on Afghanistan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The U.S. Senate will sit for the impeachment trial of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.  The eventual impeachment vote is widely expected to fail.

• Argentina’s Union of State Employees (ATE) will have its transportation and health workers strike over the government's austerity program.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid to speak on the economic and monetary policy outlook before the Economic Club of Oklahoma City.

• Canada Manufacturing Sales Prel (January)

• Colombia Business Confidence (January)

• USA New Home Sales (January), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (February), 3-Month, 6-Month, 2-Year, 5-Year Note Auction, Building Permits Final (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee will meet for two days to prepare the final agenda for the Congress’ annual meeting, which starts on March 5.  The agenda is expected to focus on the national budget, socio-economic development planning for 2024, and other domestic issues.

• Thailand and the U.S. will hold the annual Cobra Gold military exercises, the longest-running military exercises in Southeast Asia.  More than 30 countries will participate and will involve more than 4,000 soldiers.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Singapore Industrial Production (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• French President Emmanuel Macron will host a meeting of EU leaders in Paris to discuss Ukraine support and how the EU can further bolster aid.

• The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  They are expected to exchange views on ways of ensuring rapid and structural responses to the current crisis that the agricultural sector is facing.  Farmers across the EU have been protesting over restrictive climate change requirements, competitive agricultural issues, and other matters for weeks.

• There will be an informal meeting of the EU Gender Equality Ministers through February 27 in Brussels.

• Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala will meet Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Prague, Czech Republic.

• The Hungarian parliament reconvenes after a multiweek break and is expected to vote on Sweden’s NATO accession.

• Verdi, one of Germany’s largest unions, has called for a nationwide six-day transport strike over wages.

• The Mobile World Congress begins in Madrid, Spain, and goes through February 29.  It is the world’s biggest event focusing on mobile communications. Speakers include Vodafone chief executive Margherita Della Valle and Dell Technologies chair and CEO Michael Dell.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a plenary debate on the ECB Annual Report 2022 in Strasbourg, France.

• Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden opens the Bank of England Agenda for Research (BEAR) conference in London.

• Spain PPI (January)

• Ireland Construction Output (Q4)

• Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (February)

• France 3-, 6-, 12-Month BTF Auction

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Kuwait celebrates Liberation Day, marking the day the country was liberated from Iraqi occupation in 1999.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Senegal will hold a national dialogue through Feb. 27 to reach an agreement on a new date for the country's postponed presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, February 27, 2024 

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

• BRICS Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will meet for the first time in São Paulo, Brazil, in advance of the G20 Finance Minister/Central Bank Governors meeting later this week.  Russia is chairing the BRICS in 2024 but taking advantage of most of the BRICS finance ministers being in São Paulo for the G20 meeting to gather in a pre-meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Michigan holds its 2024 presidential primary.

• The Dominican Republic celebrates Independence Day, marking the day in 1844 the country gained independence from Haiti.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives a virtual speech on “Counterparty Credit Risk” at the Conference on Counterparty Risk Management.

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Current Account (January), Foreign Direct Investment (January), IPCA mid-month CPI (February)

• Mexico Balance of Trade (January)

• USA Durable Goods Orders (January), Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation, Defense, and Non-Defense (January), Redbook (Feb/24), S&P/CaseShiller Home Price DEC, House Price Index DEC, CB Consumer Confidence (February), Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Services Index (February), Dallas Fed Services Index, 7-Year Note Auction, API Crude Oil Stock Change (Feb/23)

• Argentina Retail Sales DEC

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Hong Kong will announce its annual budget for 2024-2025.  Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary has predicted a deficit of more than $100 million HK dollars, double the initial estimates.  Analysts believe the deficit is a result of declining land values and smaller stamp duties.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Inflation Rate (January)

• Malaysia PPI (January)

• Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (February)

• Taiwan Export Orders (January), Current Account (Q4), M2 Money Supply (January)

• Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

• Singapore 20 Year Bond Yield, MAS 12- and 4-Week Bill Auction

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU is expected to present its new Defense Industrial Strategy (EDIS) and its European Defense Investment Program (EDIP).  Both were developed to help restock and acquire new defense equipment and technology. 

• The prime ministers of members of the Visegrad Group (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia) will meet in Prague, Czech Republic.

• NATO begins the maritime exercise Dynamic Manta off the coast of Italy. The exercise is anti-submarine and anti-surface ship warfare training. It goes until March 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Dave Ramsden will give a keynote address at the Association of Financial Markets (AFME) Bond Trading, Innovation and Evolution Forum in London.

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence MAR, 10-Year Bund/g Auction,

• France Consumer Confidence (February), Unemployment Benefit Claims (January), Jobseekers Total (January)

• Euro Area Loans to Companies (January), Loans to Households (January), M3 Money Supply  (January)

• Great Britain 15-Year IndexLinked Treasury Gilt Auction

• Italy 6-Month BOT Auction

• Russia Monetary Policy Report

• Greece Total Credit (January)

• Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (February), Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Israel holds municipal elections.

• Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak is expected to travel to Tehran to participate in the Iran-Russia Intergovernmental Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation.  The two countries may announce the signing of a deal creating a gas hub.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Qatar GDP Growth Rate Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nigeria’s coalition of trade unions will protest nationally through February 28 over the rising cost of living.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (February)

• Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, February 28, 2024 

Global

• G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will begin meetings in Sao Paulo, Brazil, through February 29.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will host South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul in Washington. Blinken and Cho are expected to discuss strengthening the ability to have an “extended deterrence” against North Korea as well as further building a global comprehensive strategic alliance.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on monetary policy and the economy before the Greater North Fulton Chamber of Commerce, Fulton County, Georgia.

• Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins to speak and participate in a fireside chat before an event hosted by the Center for Business, Government, and Society at the Dartmouth College Tuck School of Business.

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in a hybrid economic briefing organized by the Long Island Association.

• Brazil IGP-M Inflation (February), Bank Lending (January)

• Chile Unemployment Rate (January)

• USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Feb/23), MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb/23), MBA Mortgage Market Index (Feb/23), MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (Feb/23), MBA Purchase Index (Feb/23), GDP Growth Rate  2nd Est (Q4), GDP Price Index  2nd Est (Q4), Goods Trade Balance Adv (January), Retail Inventories Ex Autos  Adv (January), Wholesale Inventories  Adv (January), Core PCE Prices  2nd Est (Q4), GDP Sales  2nd Est (Q4), PCE Prices  2nd Est (Q4), Real Consumer Spending  2nd Est (Q4), EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Feb/23), EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Feb/23), EIA Crude Oil Imports Change (Feb/23), EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change (Feb/23), EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change (Feb/23), EIA Distillate Stocks Change (Feb/23), EIA Gasoline Production Change (Feb/23), EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change (Feb/23), EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change (Feb/23), NY Fed Treasury Purchases 22.5 to 30 yrs, 17-Week Bill Auction, Fed Bostic Speech

• Canada Current Account (Q4), Average Weekly Earnings DEC

• Uruguay Unemployment Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will address a joint sitting of Australia's parliament.  Marcos is also meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to discuss a broader mutual security arrangement. The two countries elevated their relationship to a strategic partnership in 2023 and are expected to sign new agreements to strengthen "mutual capacity building" during the two-day visit. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Australia Construction Work Done (Q4), Monthly CPI Indicator (January), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (February), RBA Payments System Board Meeting

• New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

• Thailand Industrial Production (January), Retail Sales DEC

• Japan Coincident Index Final DEC, Leading Economic Index Final DEC

• Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Final (Q4)

• Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The Moldovan breakaway region Transdniestria will hold its first Congress of Deputies since 2006 and potentially issue a new request for recognition and annexation by Russia.

• Yulia Navalny, wife of slain Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, will address the European Parliament.  Parliament Members will then discuss the need for EU action to support political prisoners and oppressed civil society in Russia. A resolution will be put to a vote on February 29.

•  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama in Tirana, Albania.

• Andalusia celebrates Andalusia Day, a holiday celebrating when the Spanish region passed a Statute of Autonomy in 1980.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB Board Member Cipollone will participate in the G20 Finance Ministers' and Central Bank Governors' meeting in São Paulo, Brazil.

• ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a keynote speech at an industry outreach conference on counterparty credit risk management (CCR) organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in collaboration with the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) in New York

• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann speaks at the Financial Times’s Future Forum online event.

• Turkey Balance of Trade Final (January), Economic Confidence Index (February), Exports and Imports Final (January)

• Slovakia Business Confidence (February), Consumer Confidence (February)

• Italy Business Confidence (February), Consumer Confidence (February), 10- and 5-Year BTP Auction

• Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (February)

• Slovenia harmonized Inflation Rate (February), Retail Sales (January)

• Euro Area Economic Sentiment (February), Consumer Confidence Final (February), Consumer Inflation Expectations (February), Industrial Sentiment (February), Selling Price Expectations (February), Services Sentiment (February), ECB McCaul Speech

• Ireland Retail Sales (January)

• Great Britain 7-Year Treasury Gilt Auction

• Germany 15-Year Bund Auction

• Spain Business Confidence (February)

• Russia Unemployment Rate (January), Business Confidence (February), Corporate Profits DEC, Industrial Production (January), Real Wage Growth DEC, Retail Sales  (January), GDP  (January), GDP (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• The secular Palestinian party and former guerrilla movement Fatah and the Palestinian militant group Hamas will take part in inter-Palestinian talks in Moscow, Russia. This strategy represented a notable departure from the Palestinian Authority's previous responses to Bahrain and the UAE normalizing relations with "Israel" in 2020, during which it denounced the Gulf states for betrayal.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has been urging the two competing factions to unite.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• Kuwait M2 Money Supply (January), Private Bank Lending (January)

• Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (January), Private Bank Lending (January)

• Egypt M2 Money Supply (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The 56th session of the Economic Commission for Africa will take place in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe. Ministers for finance and economic development, alongside central bank governors, will discuss Africa’s development agenda.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, February 29, 2024

Global

• It is Leap Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will testify before the House Armed Services Committee to explain his recent secret hospitalization.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to speak on "Financial Stability/Regulation" before the Columbia University/Bank Policy Institute 2024 Bank Regulation Research Conference in New York.

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in a moderated discussion before hybrid Citizens Budget Commission 92nd Annual Gala in New York.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on the economic outlook, monetary policy and the state of the banking industry before the 2024 Banking Outlook Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

• Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (January), Nominal Budget Balance (January), Unemployment Rate (January)

• Canada CFIB Business Barometer (February), GDP Growth Rate Annualized (Q4), GDP Implicit Price (Q4), 2-Year Bond Auction

• Chile Copper Production (January), Industrial Production (January),  Manufacturing Production  (January), Retail Sales  (January)

• Mexico Unemployment Rate (January)

• USA Core PCE Price Index  (January), Personal Income  (January), Personal Spending  (January), Initial Jobless Claims (Feb/24), PCE Price Index  (January), Continuing Jobless Claims (February)/17, Core PCE Price Index  (January), Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Feb/24), Chicago PMI (February), Pending Home Sales  (January), EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (Feb/23), Fed Bostic Speech, Fed Goolsbee Speech, Kansas Fed Composite Index (February), Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (February), 4- and 8-Week Bill Auction, 15-, 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Feb/28), Fed Mester Speech

• Colombia Cement Production (January), Unemployment Rate (January)

• Uruguay Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Pakistan’s New National Assembly will convene for the first time since the February 8 elections.  Former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is expected to be selected as the new Prime Minister.

• South Korea will announce its birth rate for 2023.  The country has the lowest birthrate in the world and the new data is likely to show the birth rate at a record low of 0.72 and will likely continue to sink to 0.65 in 2025.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Hajime Takata gives a speech at a meeting with local business leaders in Shiga, Japan.

• Japan Industrial Production Prel (January), Retail Sales (January), Foreign Bond Investment (Feb/24), Industrial Production Prel (January), Retail Sales (January), Stock Investment by Foreigners (Feb/24), 2-Year JGB Auction, Housing Starts (January), Construction Orders (January)

• New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (February)

• Australia Housing Credit (January), Retail Sales Prel (January), Building Capital Expenditure (Q4), Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure (Q4), Private Capital Expenditure (Q4), Private Sector Credit (January)

• Singapore Bank Lending (January), Export Prices (January), Import Prices (January), PPI (January), 6-Month T-Bill Auction

• Vietnam Balance of Trade (February), Industrial Production (February), Inflation Rate (February), Retail Sales (February), Tourist Arrivals (February)

• Philippines Budget Balance DEC

• Malaysia M3 Money Supply (January)

• Thailand Current Account (January), Private Investment and Consumption (January)

• Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Final (Q4), Industrial Production (January), Retail Sales (January), Unemployment Rate (January)

• Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (February)

• India Government Budget Value (January), Infrastructure Output (January), GDP Growth Rate (Q4), Fiscal Year GDP Growth Final 2023-24

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Russian President Vladimir Putin will give his annual address to the Russian Federal Assembly.   The speech is constitutionally required and will likely focus on the state of the Russian economy and the state of the War on Ukraine.

• There will be an informal meeting of EU education ministers in Brussels through March 1.

• In the UK, there will be a parliamentary by-election in Rochdale.

Economic Reports/Events –

• France Non-Farm Payrolls (Q4), Private Non-Farm Payrolls Final (Q4), Inflation Rate Prel (February), GDP Growth Rate Final (Q4), Inflation Rate Prel (February), Harmonized Inflation Rate Prel (February), Household Consumption (January), PPI (January)

• Germany Retail Sales (January), Unemployed Rate (February), Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (February), Bavaria CPI (February), Brandenburg CPI (February), Hesse CPI (February), North Rhine Westphalia CPI (February), Saxony CPI (February), Inflation Rate Prel (February), Harmonized Inflation Rate Prel (February)

• Turkey GDP Growth Rate (Q4), MPC Meeting Summary, Foreign Exchange Reserves (Feb/23)

• Hungary PPI (January)

• Spain Inflation Rate Prel (February), Core Inflation Rate Prel (February), Harmonized Inflation Rate Prel (February), Current Account DEC

• Switzerland GDP Growth Rate (Q4), KOF Leading Indicators (February)

• Italy Industrial Sales DEC

• Poland GDP Growth Rate Final (Q4)

• Slovenia CPI (February), Inflation Rate (February)

• Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (January), Mortgage Approvals (February), Mortgage Lending (January), M4 Money Supply (January), Net Lending to Individuals (January), Nationwide Housing Prices (February)

• Greece PPI (January), Retail Sales DEC

• Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate Prel (February)

• Serbia GDP Growth Rate Final (Q4), Industrial Production (January), Retail Sales (January), Unemployment Rate (Q4)

• Russia M2 Money Supply (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Zimbabwe M3 Money Supply (January), Private Sector Credit (January), PPI  (January), Balance of Trade (January)

• Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

• Kenya Inflation Rate (February)

• South Africa Budget Balance (January)

Friday, March 1, 2024

Global

• Japan assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of March.

• Today is the first day of the meteorological spring (winter in the Northern Hemisphere is almost over!).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the first deadline for the U.S. Congress to pass a set of funding bills or risk a government shutdown.

• President Joe Biden will host a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni at the White House.  They are expected to discuss the G7 agenda (Italy is chairing the G7 this year), developments in North Africa, Ukraine, and closer transatlantic ties.

• Saint Vincent and the Grenadines hosts the Summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller responds to a paper entitled “Quantitative Tightening Around the Globe: What Have We Learned?” at the 2024 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York.

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech entitled “Pursuing the Dual Mandate”  at the 2024 Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Economic Summit, Stanford, California.

• San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to participate in panel, "AI and the Labor Market" before the 2024 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum hosted by the Chicago Booth School of Business.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on the economic outlook and real estate trends before the University of Florida's Kelley A. Bergstrom Real Estate Center 2024 Trends and Strategies Conference.

• Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (February), GDP Growth Rate (Q4), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

• Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (January), Business Confidence (February), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), Fiscal Balance (January)

• Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (January)

• Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

• USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (February), ISM Manufacturing PMI (February), ISM Manufacturing Employment (February), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (February), Construction Spending  (January), ISM Manufacturing New Orders/Prices (February), Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final (February), Michigan Consumer Expectations Final (February), Michigan Current Conditions Final (February), Michigan Inflation Expectations Final (February), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count MAR/01, Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count MAR/01

• Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (February)

• Peru Inflation Rate (February)

• Argentina Tax Revenue (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• South Korea celebrates Independence Movement Day, marking the day in 1919 when one of the first public displays of resistance against Japanese occupation occurred.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (February), Building Permits (January)

• Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (February), Commodity Prices (February)

• Japan Unemployment Rate (January), Jobs/applications ratio (January), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (February), Consumer Confidence (February)

• South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), Inflation Rate (February), Tourist Arrivals (January)

• Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

• Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), PPI (January)

• Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), Consumer Confidence (February)

• Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January), Business Confidence (February)

• Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

• China NBS Non-Manufacturing, Manufacturing, & General PMI (February), Caixin Manufacturing PMI (February)

• India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (February), Foreign Exchange Reserves (Feb/23),

• Kazakhstan Tengri Partners Manufacturing PMI (February), Inflation Rate (February)

• Hong Kong Retail Sales (January)

• Pakistan Balance of Trade (February), Inflation Rate (February), Wholesale Prices (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets with leaders of the Federation of German Industries, the Federal Association of German Employers, and other business representatives to discuss ways of improving the German economy. 

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Italian President Sergio Mattarella in Rome, Italy.  He will also meet with Pope Francis.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will give a speech at the Cardiff University Business School, Cardiff, UK.

• Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (February), Average Weekly Earnings (Q4), Current Account (Q4)

• Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

• Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (February)

• Hungary Balance of Trade Final DEC, GDP Growth Rate Final (Q4), HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (February)

• Switzerland Retail Sales (January), procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (February)

• Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

• Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February), New Car Sales (February)

• Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February), Unemployment Rate (January), Full Year GDP Growth 2024, Inflation Rate Prel (February), harmonized Inflation Rate Prel (February), Government Budget 2023, New Car Registrations (February)

• France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)

• Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February), Inflation Rate (February), Unemployment Rate (January), CPI Flash (February)

• Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February), Unemployment Rate (January)

• Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (February)

• Ukraine Current Account (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Iran will hold elections for the 290-seat parliament and the 88-seat Assembly of Experts.  the Assembly of Experts serves to advise Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

• Turkey will host the 3rd Antalya Diplomacy Forum.  More than 20 heads of state and 80 ministers will attend the event, which runs through March 3.   The theme of the forum is “Advancing Diplomacy in Times of Turmoil.”

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Russia-Tanzania Conference will be hosted by the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Dar es Salaam. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (February)

• South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (February), Total New Vehicle Sales (February)

Saturday, March 2, 2024 

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hosts Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni for meetings in Ottawa.  Italy is chairing the G7 this year and her visit is to discuss Canada’s issues and concerns as well as to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Spain Unemployment Change (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Adwa Victory Day in Ethiopia, celebrating the country’s victory over Italy in 1896.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 3, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• El Salvador holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Bulgaria Liberation Day, celebrating the Treaty of San Stefano, recognizing the nation’s independence in 1879.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Senegal has a constitutional deadline today to hold presidential elections (which they are likely to fail to do).

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

February 18 - 26, 2024

The coming week is one of sad anniversaries and a likely major geopolitical inflection point in the Middle East.  It is also a big week the U.S. presidential campaigns as to whether or not former President Donald Trump can lock up the Republican nomination for president.

First, to the anniversary:  Saturday will be the second anniversary of Russia’s (second) invasion of Ukraine.  We say “second” to remind readers President Vladimir Putin first militarily invaded the Donbas and Crimean regions of Ukraine in 2014, annexing them under Russian control.  After signing the Minsk Agreements in 2015 to cease military actions against Ukraine, he then broke those agreements when he launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The major geopolitical inflection point we will be watching closely this week is Israel’s pending ground offensive against Hamas forces in Rafah, the last Palestinian refuge on the southern edge of the Gaza Strip.  Global leaders ranging from  President Joe Biden to numerous leaders who gathered at the Munich Security Conference this past weekend have strongly urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to not press ahead with the assault, seeking ways to find a negotiated cease-fire in return for Israeli hostages held by Hamas.  As those negotiations have proven fruitless, it appears Netanyahu will press forward, likely to prove a turning point in Israeli-U.S. relations.

Staying on geopolitical events taking place this week, markets will watch closely as Brazil hosts a meeting of G20 foreign ministers in Rio de Janeiro.  Brazil is the chair of the G20 in 2024, and Brazilian President Lula da Silva (“Lula”) appears determined to use the opportunity to bring greater world focus on Southern Tier issues ranging from hunger to sustainable development to having a more significant say in global governance.  Over the weekend, Lula inflamed relations with Israel by comparing the military campaign in Gaza to the Holocaust.  The situations in Gaza, the Red Sea, and Ukraine will be keen discussion points.  But with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attending the meetings, any new resolutions among foreign ministers aimed either at Russia or Iran are likely to be blocked.

Also, this coming week, the E.U. is expected to deploy 700 soldiers – mainly from Germany, France, and Italy – to support further military operations in the Red Sea against Iranian-backed Houthi attacks on commercial shipping.  Germany already has a defense frigate participating in the joint operation with U.S. and U.K. naval ships.

Here in the U.S., the Republican Presidential Primary in South Carolina will be held Saturday.  Most observers see it as the last obstacle to former President Donald Trump’s path to renomination if he can beat former South Carolina Governor Nikki Hailey.  Current polls suggest Trump is well ahead of Hailey. 

The U.S. Congress is out of session for the Presidents Day holiday this week.   But when they return, they face yet another imminent deadline of March 1 to pass the 2024 budget – or another Continuing Resolution to keep the government open.  Additionally, House Republican leadership faces growing pressure also to take up and pass a $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.  House Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA) has said he does not intend to bring up the Senate-passed package for a vote unless it contains provisions providing greater security on the U.S. southern border.

Turning to the significant global economic and financial calendar this week, markets will focus on the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes on Wednesday and the European Central Bank’s minutes being released on Thursday.  Markets will also look at China’s monetary policy decision this Sunday before Chinese markets reopen Monday following the Lunar New Year holiday.  Otherwise, it is a relatively light economic release calendar this week. 

Below is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, February 18, 2024 

Global 

• UN Secretary-General António Guterres travels to Doha, Qatar, for a follow-up meeting of Special Envoys from Member States and regional organizations on Afghanistan that he is convening on 18 and 19 February. The objective of the meeting is to discuss how to approach increasing international engagement in a more coherent, coordinated, and structured manner, including through consideration of the recommendations of the independent assessment on Afghanistan. Nothing significant to report. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• US Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas will travel to Vienna, Austria, to meet with People’s Republic of China (PRC) State Councilor and Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong.  Mayorkas and Wang will discuss cooperation on counternarcotics as a follow-up to the inaugural meeting of the U.S.-PRC Counternarcotics Working Group. They will also discuss efforts to counter child sexual exploitation and abuse and other law enforcement priorities.  

• The Dominican Republican holds local elections. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• A bipartisan delegation of U.S. senators will visit Budapest, Hungary, in an attempt to convince Prime Minister Viktor Orban to ratify Sweden's NATO membership bid. The senators making the trip are Senator Jeanne Shaheen, co-chair of the Senate NATO Observer Group, member of the Committee on Foreign Relations and Committee on Appropriations; Senator Thom Tillis, co-chair of the Senate NATO Observer Group;

• Senator Chris Murphy, member of the Committee on Foreign Relations and Committee on Appropriations; and Senator Chris Van Hollen, member of the Committee on Foreign Relations and Committee on Appropriations.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• Gambia celebrates Independence Day, marking the date when the country was granted its independence from the UK in 1965. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.  

Monday, February 19, 2024 

Global 

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Somalia. Nothing significant to report. 

• The International Criminal Court in the Hague holds a hearing on Israel’s policies in Gaza.

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• The US observes President’s Day, a national holiday.  Markets are closed, as is the federal government.

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov travels to Havana, Cuba for high-level talks. Lavrov will then travel on to Venezuela to meet with President Nicolas Maduro and Vice President Delcy Rodriquez in advance of Maduro’s expected visit to Russia sometime this spring.  Lavrov will also use the trip to Venezuela to meet with a high-level delegation of Bolivian diplomats. He will then travel to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, to participate in the G20 Foreign Ministers meeting.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (December), Business Confidence Report (February), BCB Focus Market Readout 

• Canada PPI Report (January), Raw Materials Prices (January) 

• Paraguay Interest Rate Decision Report 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• Japan will host a Japan-Ukraine conference on economic reconstruction in Tokyo.

• Singapore hosts the Singapore Airshow, Asia’s biggest international aerospace and defense trade show.

• India and the European Union are due to hold a seventh round of free trade talks from Monday through Friday. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• China Current Account (Q4) 

• New Zealand Composite PCI (January), Services PSI (January) 

• Japan Machinery Orders (December), 52-Week Bill Auction 

• Indonesia Property Price Index (Q4) 

• Thailand Full Year GDP Growth, GDP Growth Rate (Q4) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• The EU is expected to approve the launch of a naval task force, joining with US and UK naval forces, to protect shipping in the Red Sea from Houthi militant attacks.

commercial vessels.

• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will launch her bid for a second term as EC President during an event hosted by her Christian Democratic Union party in Germany.

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol in Berlin, Germany.  South Korea is seeking greater investment and trade opportunities in the EU and also is seeking greater German investment in South Korea.

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels. They are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza, the Ukraine War, the situation in the Sahel (and how to perhaps engage further with the region) and offer an exchange of views on Belarus. 

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Tourism Ministers through February 20 in Brussels. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Spain Balance of Trade (December), Consumer Confidence (January) 

• Serbia CPI Report (January), Inflation Rate Report (January) 

• Belarus GDP Report (January) 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel GDP Growth Annualized (Q4), Unemployment Rate Report (January) 

• Oman Inflation Rate 

• Qatar Inflation Rate (January) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• The UN Food and Agriculture Organization holds its 37th Regional Conference for Asia and the Pacific in Colombo, Sri Lanka.

• The second Canada-Africa Business Conference, organized by the Canada-Africa Chamber of Business in partnership with Kenya Private Sector Alliance, will take place in Nairobi through February 20.

• The Africa Agri Expo takes place in Nairobi with over 5,000 agribusiness and agri-professionals discussing topics including data-driven agriculture and sustainable agriculture. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Ivory Coast Inflation Report (January) 

• Nigeria Unemployment Rate (Q3) 

• Ethiopia Inflation Rate (January) 

Tuesday, February 20, 2024 

Global 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Brazil to attend the G20 Foreign Ministers meeting.

• In New York, the trial of ex-Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernandez on drug trafficking charges begins.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Canada Inflation Rate (January), CPI Median (January)  

• USA CB Leading Index (January), 3-, 6-month, 52-week Bill Auction 

• Argentina Balance of Trade (January) 

• El Salvador Balance of Trade (January) 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Jammu and Kashmir, his first trip to the province since the 2019 abrogation of Article 370 of India's constitution, which granted Jammu and Kashmir a semi-autonomous status.

• The INDUS X Conference will be held in New Delhi through February 21. Co-hosted by the US-India Business Council and the Society of Indian Defense Manufacturers in collaboration with the US Department of Defense and the Indian Ministry of Defense.  The conference is seen as a significant step toward further building and accelerating the strategic defense partnership between the US and India. INDUS-X stands for “US-India Defense Accelerator Ecosystem” and was first launched in 2023 in Washington, D.C. in advance of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s State Visit to the United States.

• The Asia-Pacific Forum on Sustainable Development, hosted by the UN, will be held in Bangkok, Thailand. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (February) 

• Australia RBA Meeting Minutes 

• China Loan Prime Rate (February) 

• Japan 20-Year JGB Auction 

• Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Trade Reports (January 

• Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (January) 

• Singapore MAS 12- and 4-Week Bill Auction 

• New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (Feb/20) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• The EU-Georgia Association Council meets in Brussels. Chaired by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell and Georgian Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobakhidze, they are expected to discuss Georgia’s EU accession path, political dialogue and reform, trade, and conflict resolution.  

• The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels. They will discuss the rule of law in Poland.

• Polish farmers are expected to protest against EU measures to tackle climate change and the massive import of Ukrainian products.

• Economic Reports/Events – 

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey testifies on the economy and monetary policy before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee.

• Switzerland Balance of Trade (January) 

• Euro Area Current Account (December), Construction Output (December) 

• Greece Current Account (December) 

• Italy Construction Output (December), Current Account (December) 

• Poland Corporate Sector Wages (January), Employment Growth (January), Industrial Production (January), PPI (January) 

• Great Britain 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction 

• Germany 2-Year Schatz Auction 

• Turkey Central Government Debt Report (January) 

• Slovakia Current Account (December), Unemployment Rate (January) 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Today is the anniversary of the Moroccan Arab Spring uprising.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Kuwait Inflation Rate (January) 

• Oman Inflation Rate (January), M2 Money Supply (December), Total Credit (December) 

• Israel Inflation Expectations (February) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• The Cameroon–European Union Business Week will gather public and private sector stakeholders from both sides in Yaoundé, Cameroon.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (December), Unemployment Rate (Q4) 

• Mozambique GDP Growth Rate (Q4) 

Wednesday, February 21, 2024 

Global 

• G20 Foreign Ministers meet in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil is chairing the G20 in 2024). They are likely to focus on Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict. 

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).    

• In Nairobi, the UN Climate and Clean Air Conference 2024 will take place from 21 to 23 February, ahead of UNEA-6. The Conference will focus on the cost of inaction, highlighting ways to further scale up implementation of the Global Methane Pledge, Clean Air Flagship and Kigali Amendment, and collectively charting the course to 2025 and beyond. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• U.S. House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party chair Mike Gallagher will lead a congressional delegation to visit Taiwanese President-elect William Lai in Taipei, Taiwan.

• The Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC) 2024 meeting takes place in Washington, D.C. through February 24.  Former President Donald Trump will speak as will former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss, Argentine President Javier Milei, and other conservative leaders.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at the Exchequer Club of Washington, D.C. 

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give welcome remarks before the Airports Council International CFO Summit hosted by the Regional Economic Information Network (REIN) of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. 

• Mexico Retail Sales (December) 

• US Federal Reserve Board Open Market Committee Minutes, USA Mortgage Reports (Feb/16), MBA Purchase Index (Feb/16), Redbook (Feb/17), 17-Week Bill Auction, 2-Year FRN Auction, 20-Year Bond, API Crude Oil Stock Change (February) 

• Canada New Housing Price Index (January), 10-Year Bond Auction  

• Costa Rica Balance of Trade (January) 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• APEC holds a meeting of Deputy Finance Ministers and Deputy Central Bankers in Arequipa, Peru.

• The Raisina Dialogue 2024 begins in New Delhi and runs through February 23.  The Dialogue is India’s premier geopolitical and geoeconomics conference.  

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Korea Business Confidence (February), PPI (January and Q4) 

• New Zealand PPI Report (Q4) 

• Japan Reuters Tankan (February), Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January) 

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (January), Wage Price Index (Q4) 

• Indonesia Interest Rate Decision, Loan Growth (January), Facility Rate (February), Lending Facility Rate (February) 

• India M3 Money Supply (Feb/09) 

• Thailand New Car Sales (January) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• Russia's Federal Assembly will vote to suspend the country's participation in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization for Security and Cooperation. 

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers through February 24 in Brussels.

• Doctors in England and Wales are expected to go on strike over wages until February 28. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in a roundtable discussion entitled "Sustainability risks in the banking sector" at EUROFI High-Level Seminar 2024, organized in association with the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU in Ghent, Belgium. 

• ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a panel discussion entitled "Cyber and digital operational resilience: key pending issues (DORA CTPP oversight, EU and international cyber initiatives, digital infrastructure…" at EUROFI High-Level Seminar 2024 organized in association with the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU in Ghent, Belgium.

• Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Swati Dhingra gives a speech at the Market News International Connect event entitled “Recent BoE Projections – Key Factors/Judgments” in London.

• ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting, Euro Area New Car Registrations (January), 3- and 6-Month Auction, Consumer Confidence Flash (February) 

• Turkey Consumer Confidence (February) 

• Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (January), 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction, CBI Industrial Trends Orders (February) 

• Germany 10-Year Bund Auction 

• Ireland Residential Property Prices (December) 

• Slovenia Unemployment Rate (December) 

• Russia PPI (January) 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December) 

• Lebanon Inflation Rate (January) 

• Qatar M2 Money Supply (January), Total Credit Growth (January) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• The second edition of Africa’s Green Economy Summit will be held in Cape Town, bringing together investors, African leaders, and policy-makers.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Africa Inflation Rate (January), 2024/2025 Budget 

Thursday, February 22, 2024 

Global 

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the Middle East. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• Newly re-elected Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele travels to the US to speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Maryland.

• The IM-1 lunar lander, designed by Intuitive Machines, the first privately financed mission to the moon, is scheduled to land on the lunar surface today.

St. Lucia celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson gives remarks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. 

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “Sources of Uncertainty in the Short Run and the Long Run” at the Annual Conference of the Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy & Finance (JRCPPF) – Empirical Macrofinance in the Long Run: New Insights on the Global Economy, Princeton, N.J. 

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook” at the Notre Dame Club of Minnesota and the University of St. Thomas Finding Forward Speaker Series, Minneapolis, Minn. 

• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on the economic outlook before an event hosted by the University of Delaware Center for Economic Education. 

• Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a panel discussion on economic trends and outlook for 2024 and the growth of Minnesota's economy hosted by Northside Economic Opportunity Network (NEON) Community Conversations. 

• Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final (Q4), Economic Activity (December), Mid-Core Inflation Rate (February), Mid-Month Inflation Rate (February), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes  

• Canada Retail Sales (December) 

• USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (January), Industrial Production (January), Initial Jobless Claims (Feb/17), S&P Global PMI Flash (February), Existing Home Sales (January), Existing Home Sales (January), Natural Gas & Crude Oil Stocks Change (Feb/16), 4- and 8-Week Bill Auction, 15- and 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Feb/21), 30-Year TIPS Auction 

• Argentina Economic Activity (December) 

• Uruguay Interest Rate Decision 

• Peru Current Account (Q4), GDP Growth Rate (Q4) 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January) 

• Australia Judo Bank Services PMI Flash (February) 

• Japan Foreign Bond Investment, Jibun Bank PMI Flash, 3-Month Bill Auction 

• South Korea Interest Rate Decision 

• New Zealand Credit Card Spending (January) 

• Indonesia Current Account (Q4) 

• India HSBC Composite PMI Flash (February), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, HSBC PMI Flash (February) 

• Hong Kong Consumer Price Index CPI (January), Inflation Rate (January) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• The European Commission, NAE Normandie and CCI Normanide host a conference on Europe’s Naval Sector in Cherbourg, France.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in a roundtable discussion entitled "Diversity in the EU banking system: contribution to financing needs, future challenges and way forward" at EUROFI High-Level Seminar 2024, organized in association with the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU in Ghent, Belgium. 

• ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a panel discussion entitled "EU bank crisis management framework: can an agreement be achieved for medium-sized banks?" at EUROFI High-Level Seminar 2024, organized in association with the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU in Ghent, Belgium. 

• ECB Monetary Policy meeting minutes released. 

• Hungary Gross Wage (December) 

• France Business Confidence (February), Business Climate Indicator (February), HCOB Composite PMI Flash (February) 

• Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (January) 

• Germany HCOB PMI Flash (February) 

• Italy Inflation Rate Final (January) 

• Poland Retail Sales (January), M3 Money Supply (January) 

• Slovenia Consumer Confidence (February) 

• Great Britain S&P Global PMI Flash (February), Consumer Confidence (February), Car Production (January) 

• Euro Area Inflation Rate (January), CPI Final (January), Eurogroup Meeting, HCOB PMI Flash 

• Ireland Wholesale Prices (January) 

• Serbia PPI (January) 

• Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Borrowing and Lending Rate (February), Foreign Exchange Reserves (Feb/16) 

• Ireland Consumer Confidence (February) 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Manufacturing Production (December), Manufacturing PMI (January) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• Algeria celebrates the National Day of Fraternity and Cohesion, marking the anniversary of the protests that united the country in 2019.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nigeria GDP Growth Rate (Q4) 

• Ghana PPI (January)  

Friday, February 23, 2024 

Global 

• The UN General Assembly will hold its 56th plenary meeting. On the agenda is the situation in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.    

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks.   

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Argentinian President Javier Milei in Buenos Aires.

• Guyana celebrates Republic Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (February), Federal Tax Revenues (January) 

• Chile PPI (January) 

• Canada Budget Balance (December), Manufacturing & Wholesale Sales MoM Prel (January) 

• Argentina Consumer Confidence (February), Leading Indicator (January) 

• Mexico Current Account (Q4) 

• Paraguay PPI (January) 

• USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (Feb/23) 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• Today is the Emperor’s Birthday in Japan. It is a public holiday, and financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• New Zealand Retail Sales (Q4) 

• China House Price Index (January), FDI (YTD) (January) 

• Indonesia M2 Money Supply (January) 

• Malaysia Inflation Rate (January), Leading Index (December) 

• Singapore Inflation Rate (January), CPI (January) 

• Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision  

• India Foreign Exchange Reserves (Feb/16), Deposit Growth (Feb/09), Bank Loan Growth (Feb/09) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• Russia celebrates Defender of the Fatherland Day (also known as Men’s Day due to compulsory military service for most Russian men).  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in the Eurogroup meeting in Ghent, Brussels. She will hold a press conference afterward. Later, she will participate in an informal ECOFIN meeting. 

• ECB Member Isabel Schnabel gives a lecture entitled "Has the fight against inflation been won?" at Bocconi University in Milan, Italy. Later in the day, she gives a speech at Forum Analysis in Milan. 

• ECB Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates in a panel discussion entitled "European financial stability: what are the main emerging risks? (strains from indebtedness, banking risks …)?" at EUROFI High-Level Seminar 2024 organized in association with the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU in Ghent, Belgium. 

• Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectation (January)  

• Germany GDP Growth Rate Final (Q4), Ifo Expectations (February), Ifo Current Conditions (February), Ifo Business Climate (February) 

• Turkey Capacity Utilization (February), Business Confidence (February), Tourist Arrivals (January) 

• Hungary Unemployment Rate (January) 

• Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls (Q4), Industrial Production (January) 

• Poland Unemployment Rate (January) 

• Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (January), PPI (January), Business Confidence (February) 

• Italy BTP Short-Term and Index-Linked Auction  

• Belarus Industrial Production (January) 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Saturday, February 24, 2024 

Global 

• Today is the 2nd anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• South Carolina holds the Republican Presidential Primary. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• Cambodia Senate Elections are held. 58 seats are up for election, and 49 are expected to go to the ruling Cambodian People’s Party and nine to the opposition Candlelight Party.

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. will open its first Japan factory in the southwestern prefecture of Kumamoto. The world's biggest chip foundry wants to shift production away from Taiwan amid growing geopolitical uncertainties.  

• In Taiwan, the Lantern Festival is celebrated, marking the end of the country’s lunar new year.

Economic Reports/Events – 

•   Nothing significant to report. 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• The EU will likely announce a new round of sanctions on Russia-linked entities before the second anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine.

• Today is Estonia's Independence Day.

• Belarus Parliamentary Election  

Economic Reports/Events – 

•   Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Sunday, February 25, 2024 

Global 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• Guyana hosts the 46th Regular Meeting of the Conference of Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM).

• Former President Jair Bolsonaro has called on supporters to protest in São Paulo on February 25. Federal police accuse Bolsonaro of plotting to stay in power regardless of 2022 election results.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• Cambodia holds legislative elections.  

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• Early voting begins in Russia for the presidential election.

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Abu Dhabi through February 29. The meeting will be held on the margins of the 13th Ministerial Conference (MC13) of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which will be held in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, from 26 to 29 February 2024. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Today is Kuwait National Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Composite Economic Index (January) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Please let us know if you have any questions or if we can be helpful in any way.