The Global Week Ahead
June 9 - 16, 2024
Despite the summer season, the upcoming week will significantly shape the trajectory of various geopolitical challenges in the coming months. The G7 summit, to be held in Italy, is a pivotal event where leaders will delve into critical issues such as Ukraine, Gaza, and climate change. Under the leadership of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the summit has extended invitations to African and other global leaders, amplifying its importance.
Meanwhile, world leaders will gather in Switzerland for the Summit on Peace in Ukraine. The meeting seeks to develop "a common understanding of a path forward toward a just and lasting peace in Ukraine." Russia has not been invited, and China says it will not participate.
Simultaneously, the urgency of the situation in the Middle East is underscored by the King of Jordan's call for an immediate meeting on facilitating aid to Gaza. This high-level gathering, to be attended by regional leaders, the UN Secretary-General, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, highlights the pressing need for humanitarian assistance in the region.
Amidst these developments, the BRICS foreign ministers are set to meet in Russia. Notably, the Turkish foreign minister's attendance, as Turkey explores the possibility of joining the BRICS, could mark a significant shift in global alliances. This meeting also marks the first BRICS gathering since Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates became members, adding to its significance.
On the global economic radar screen this week, the Federal Reserve meets to discuss interest rates. Seeing the CPI release on Wednesday, markets will be keenly focused on what Fed Chair Jay Powell says during his press conference to indicate any hope for a rate cut this year. The week ends with the University of Michigan consumer survey on Friday.
In Asia, the Bank of Japan meets on Friday to discuss rates. While rates are unlikely to change, any guidance from the BoJ will be essential to listen to. Also, China's inflation data will be out on Wednesday this week.
Finally, quite a few speeches are being given by European Central Bank board members that are worth watching. The UK GDP is coming out on Wednesday.
Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events of note for the week ahead:
Sunday, June 9, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Indian BJP-led National Democratic Alliance will officially form a new government. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will begin naming members of his cabinet.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Vehicle Sales (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Parliamentary elections conclude, having begun on June 6.
· Bulgaria holds snap parliamentary elections.
· Belgium holds parliamentary (all 150 members of the Chamber of Representatives) and regional elections.
· Switzerland holds a referendum vote on four issues (Premium Relief Initiative, Cost-Brake Initiative, Initiative for Freedom and Physical Integrity, Federal Act on Secure Electricity Supply from Renewable Energy Sources).
· The Republic of South Ossetia holds parliamentary elections.
· San Marino holds parliamentary elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is National Heroes Day in Uganda, honoring the estimated 500,000 people who died in the Uganda Bush War that took place between 1981 and 1986.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, June 10, 2024
Global
· BRICs Foreign Ministers will meet in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, through June 11. The meeting is in preparation for the BRICS Leaders Meeting being held October 22-24 in Russia. his will be the group's first regular meeting since BRICS expanded this year to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Foreign ministers from some non-BRICS members were invited, too, most notably Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who will attend.
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on UNOCA/LRA, followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the 1267/1989/2253 Committee.
· The UN’s 3rd Dushanbe Water Action Decade Conference will be held in Dushanbe, Republic of Tajikistan. Li Junhua, USG of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), will deliver opening and closing remarks as a co-chair and will also deliver remarks at the Interactive Dialogue 5 on the Water Action Decade.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will travel to Egypt, Israel, Jordan, and Qatar from June 10-12, 2024. The Secretary will discuss with partners the need to reach a ceasefire agreement that secures the release of all hostages.
· Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s transition team official begins working, and a number of key personnel appointments are expected to be announced.
· US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to New Delhi to for meetings.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
· El Salvador Inflation Rate YoY MAY
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Israel to push for a cease-fire in Gaza.
· The U.S. and Japan hold their inaugural meeting of the Defense Industrial Cooperation, Acquisition, and Sustainment Forum (DICAS) in Tokyo. Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante and Masaki Fukasawa, commissioner of Japan's Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics Agency, meet with representatives from American and Japanese defense contractors to discuss co-production of missiles and ship repair of U.S. Navy ships at Japanese private shipyards.
· The U.S. and South Korea will hold the third meeting of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) in Seoul to discuss further ways to deter North Korea's nuclear threat. Established under the Washington Declaration when presidents Joe Biden and Yoon Suk Yeol met in April last year, the NCG arranged the Ohio-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine USS Kentucky's port call to Busan last June, the first such visit by a ballistic missile submarine in four decades.
· The Korea-Latin America Future Cooperation Forum will begin in Seoul, South Korea.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Malaysia Industrial Production YoY APR/ Unemployment Rate APR
· Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current MAY
· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves MAY
· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU is expected to announce its decision on whether to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
· Poland will hold a National Security Council meeting over border tensions with Belarus.
· Chancellor Olaf Scholz receives Chile President Gabriel Boric with military honors, followed by a press conference.
· Today is Portugal Day, also known as “Dia de Portugal, de Camões e das Comunidades Portuguesas.” The day commemorates the death of Luís de Camões who is recognized as the country’s greatest nation icon. He is most known for his poem which narrates the story of Portuguese explorations in the 15th century.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Romania Balance of Trade APR
· Hungary Inflation Rate YoY MAY
· Slovakia Industrial Production YoY APR
· Switzerland Consumer Confidence MAY
· Turkey Industrial Production YoY APR/ Unemployment Rate APR/ Current Account APR/ Participation Rate APR
· Italy Industrial Production YoY APR
· Slovenia Industrial Production YoY APR
· Greece Inflation Rate YoY MAY
· Ukraine Inflation Rate YoY MAY
· Belarus Inflation Rate YoY MAY
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Iran’s Guardian Council will announce the official candidates allowed to run for president in the wake of the June 28 death of President Ebrahim Raisi. Iranian state media have reported that the speaker of parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, a former Revolutionary Guards commander who lost his bid in two previous presidential polls, is among the candidates. Other well-known figures who have signed up include hardline former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and former Speaker Ali Larijani, a prominent conservative and ally of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
· Iraqi Kurdistan holds regional elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production YoY APR
· Jordan Inflation Rate YoY MAY
· Israel Consumer Confidence MAY
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt Inflation Rate YoY MAY
· Tanzania Inflation Rate YoY MAY
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Global
· UN Secretary-General António Guterres will attend a High-Level Conference on Gaza. The “Call for Action: Urgent Humanitarian Aid for Gaza” conference will be held at the invitation of His Majesty King Abdullah II, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, and the Secretary-General of the United Nations.
· OPEC Releases its Monthly Oil Market Report.
The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT). In the afternoon, the Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Trade Representative Katherine Tai travels to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan through June 15.
Economic Reports/Events –
· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index MAY/ Redbook YoY JUN/08/ API Crude Oil Stock Change JUN/07
· Brazil Inflation Rate YoY MAY
· Mexico Industrial Production YoY APR
· Canada Building Permits MoM APR
· Colombia Inflation Rate YoY MAY
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Current Account APR
· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade APR
· Australia NAB Business Confidence MAY
· Indonesia Retail Sales YoY APR
· Malaysia Retail Sales YoY APR
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The Ukraine Recovery Conference begins in Berlin, Germany, and runs through June 12. International leaders will attend the conference, which is being hosted by the German Foreign Office and the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). The URC2024 is a continuation of the annual series of high-level political events dedicated to the swift recovery and long-term reconstruction of Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine. It is also the first Ukraine Recovery Conference hosted in an EU member state and comes at a critical time for Ukraine. The conference will reflect the Lugano Principles, including a “whole of society” approach to recovery through the meaningful participation of a broad range of stakeholders.
· NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will visit Riga, Latvia. He will participate in the B9 Summit, hosted by the President of Latvia, Edgars Rinkēvičs, the President of Romania, Klaus Iohannis, and the President of Poland, Andrzej Duda.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board Member Claudia Buch gives the opening keynote speech at the 2024 Annual ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference in Frankfurt. ECB Board Member Frank Elderson will give the dinner speech.
· ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat at the Banking and Payments Federation Ireland National Conference in Dublin.
· Great Britain Unemployment Rate APR/ HMRC Payrolls Change MAY
· Turkey Retail Sales YoY APR
· Russia Balance of Trade APR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Jordan will host an International Conference on Humanitarian Aid to Gaza. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will participate as will the UN Secretary General and other leaders.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Qatar Balance of Trade APR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Manufacturing Production YoY APR
Wednesday, June 12, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold s briefing on North Korea.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Today is the commemoration of the Chaco Armistice, a national holiday in Paraguay commemorating the end of the Chaco War between Paraguay and Bolivia in the 1930s. .
Economic Reports/Events –
· The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meets on the economy and interest rates. Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m.
· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index JUN/07/ Inflation Rate YoY MAY/ CPI MAY/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change JUN/07/ Consumer Inflation Expectations MAY/ WASDE Report/ / FOMC Economic Projections/ Monthly Budget Statement MAY/ Interest Rate Projection – Current/
· Uruguay Industrial Production YoY APR
· Ecuador Balance of Trade APR
· Peru Balance of Trade APR
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Unemployment Rate MAY
· Japan PPI YoY MAY/ Machine Tool Orders YoY MAY
· China Inflation Rate YoY MAY/ PPI YoY MAY
· Indonesia Consumer Confidence MAY/ M3 Money Supply YoY MAY/31
· Thailand Interest Rate Decision
· India Industrial Production YoY APR/ Inflation Rate YoY MAY/ Manufacturing Production YoY APR
· Pakistan Consumer Confidence MAY
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labor Leader Keir Starmer participate in their second debate on Sky News.
· Russian FM Lavrov meets Cuban counterpart Bruno Eduardo Rodríguez Parrilla on the sidelines of the BRICS Foreign Minister Meeting.
· Today is Peace Day in Kosovo, celebrating the ceasefire in the Kosovo War in 1999.
· Today is Russia Day, a national holiday in Russia. Originally, the holiday was known as the Russia Independence Day celebrating the disintegration of the Soviet Union. President Putin changed the name and meaning of the day.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen will participate in a panel discussion at the 2024 Bundesbank Symposium in Frankfurt. Later in the day, ECB Board Member Claudia Buch will speak.
· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will testify before the Finance Committee of the German Bundestag in Berlin.
· ECB Board Vice President Luis de Guindos will give remarks and participate in a Q&A at MNI Connect event in London.
· ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul will give a keynote speech at the Central Banking's Summer Meetings in London.
· Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final MAY/ Current Account APR
· Romania Inflation Rate YoY MAY
· Great Britain GDP YoY APR/ Goods Trade Balance APR/ Balance of Trade APR/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production YoY APR/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker MAY
· Slovakia Construction Output YoY APR
· Russia Inflation Rate YoY MAY
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The African Export-Import Bank annual meetings and the AfriCaribbean Trade and Investment Forum will be held in Nassau, The Bahamas, under the theme ‘Owning Our Destiny: Economic Prosperity on the Platform of Global Africa.’
Economic Reports/Events –
· Angola Inflation Rate YoY MAY
· Ethiopia Inflation Rate YoY MAY
· Mozambique GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Global
· The G7 Leaders’ Summit begins in Apulia, Italy, and goes through June 14. This year the G7 is chaired by Italy and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. The main issues to be addressed during the six working sessions are: Africa, climate change and development, the ongoing situation in the Middle East, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, migration, Indo-Pacific/economic security, artificial intelligence, and energy/Africa and the Mediterranean region, The Italian presidency has also invited leaders from 12 countries and 5 international organizations to take part in some working sessions during the summit. African leaders from Kenya, Algeria, Egypt, South Africa, and Tunisia will attend.
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing in the morning on the Middle East followed by consultations (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on 1591 Committee, followed by consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will moderate a discussion with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen before the Economic Club of New York.
· US Export Sales, PPI (May), Initial Jobless Claims (June 1), EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June 7)
· Brazil Retail Sales (April)
· Argentina Inflation ((May)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY MAY
· Japan BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ Q2/ Foreign Bond Investment JUN/08/ Stock Investment by Foreigners JUN/08
· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index JUN/ Employment Change MAY/ Unemployment Rate MAY/ Participation Rate MAY
· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment MAR
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· NATO Defense Ministers will meet in Brussels and participate in the NATO-Ukraine Council.
· NATO holds Tiger Meet 2024, a NATO aircraft exercise in Schleswig Air Base Germany.
· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meets in Brussels. The presidency will inform ministers about the state of play of a legislative proposal to combat child sexual abuse. The proposed EU law would make it mandatory for internet companies to alert the authorities about online child sexual abuse on their platforms. A planned EU center would support authorities acting on reports of child sexual abuse and collect and share expertise and best practices in prevention and victim support. Ministers will also discuss the extension of the temporary protection for persons having fled from Ukraine after the start of the war. This protection – which was activated on 4 March 2022 – allows displaced persons from Ukraine to reside in the EU and to enjoy rights related to, for instance, residence and medical assistance across the EU. It was initially granted for one year and has been extended until 4 March 2025.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance MAY
· Germany Wholesale Prices (May)
· Spain Inflation (May)
· Eurozone Industrial Production (April)
·
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey FX Reserves (June 7)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Gold Production (April), Mining Production (April)
Friday, June 14, 2024
Global
The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the maintenance of international peace and security. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US celebrates Flag Day, commemorating the day in 1777 when the Second Continental Congress adopted the first US national flag.
· Today is Falkland Islands Liberation Day, celebrating the day in 1982 when the British military liberated the island from Argentine military occupation.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook will give a speech entitled “Lessons from the American Economic Association Summer Program” at the Celebrating 50 Years of the American Economic Association Summer Program, Washington, D.C.
· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in a fireside chat before the Iowa Farm Bureau Economic Summit in Des Moines, Iowa.
· US Export Prices and Import Prices (May), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June), Michigan Inflation Expectations (June), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (June 14)
· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (April)
· Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (April), New Motor Vehicle Sales (April)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China New Yuan Loans (May), M2 Money Supply (May), Outstanding Loan Growth (May), Total Social Financing (May)
· Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision, Japan Capacity Utilization (April), Industrial Production (April), Tertiary Industry Index (April)
· South Korea Import/Export Prices (May)
· India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May), WPI Food Index (May), WPI Fuel Index (May), WPI Inflation (May), WPI Manufacturing (May)
· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)
· Singapore Unemployment (Q1)
· Indonesia Car Sales (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) meets in Brussels. Ministers will hold two policy debates. The first debate touches on a proposed regulation that aims to facilitate the recognition in a member state of the parenthood of a child that has been established in another member state. The exchange will, in particular, address the recognition of surrogacy parenthood. A second debate addresses the proposed update of a directive from 2011 on combating the sexual abuse and sexual exploitation of children and child pornography. The goal is to expand the definitions of these offenses and to introduce higher penalties and more specific requirements for prevention and assistance to victims.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the 30th Dubrovnik Economic Conference in Dubrovnik.
· ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane will participate on panel at the 30th Dubrovnik Economic Conference in Dubrovnik.
· ECB Board Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in the Award ceremony of the Carlos V European Prize to Mr. Mario Draghi.
· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a virtual meeting of the European Fiscal Board.
· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the Lions Club Dortmund in Dortmund, Germany.
· France Inflation (May)
· Italy Balance of Trade (April)
· Eurozone Balance of Trade (April)
· Russia Inflation (May), GDP (Q1)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Budget Balance (May)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (April & May)
Saturday, June 15, 2024
Global
· Switzerland will host a Summit on Peace in Ukraine in Bürgenstock. The goal of the meeting is to bring heads of states together to develop “a common understanding of a path forward toward a just and lasting peace in Ukraine.” The summit, in which more than 108 countries will be represented, will build on broad international support for Ukrainian President Zelensky’s peace proposals, which include a full withdrawal of Russian troops. Moscow has not been invited, and China says it will not participate.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· China’s coastguard law, regulations on the Administrative Law Enforcement Procedures for Coast Guard Agencies, goes into force. The law could and likely will lead to direct military confrontation with Philippine, US, and other shipping moving through waters China is claiming as their own and which is disputed by the Philippines and other nations.
· Today is National Salvation Day in Azerbaijan. The day commemorates the return to power of the national leader, Heydar Aliyev, to Baku in 1993 helping to end political chaos and the risk of civil war.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China FDI (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, June 16, 2024
Global
· The Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha (one of the two main holidays celebrated in Islam) is celebrated through June 20.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing Significant to Report
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Inflation (May), Wholesale Rate (May), Wholesale Prices (May)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· South Africa’s new Parliament will convene as coalition negotiations continue to form a new government.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.