The Global Week Ahead

The G20 Meets in Brazil,  The IAEA Board of Governors Meet to Discuss Iran’s Nuclear Program, the 1000-Day Anniversary of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, and President-elect Trump Continues to Name His Cabinet

November 17 - 24, 2024

It will be another busy week geopolitically as G20 leaders gather in Brazil for the annual G20 Summit.  While no major breakthroughs are expected at the Summit, it will be the last G20 meeting for President Joe Biden and will also lead to a number of bilateral meetings between Chinese President Xi and other leaders.

Also this week, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency will meet in Vienna, Austria, to discuss the status of Iran’s ongoing – and accelerating – development of nuclear weapons.  IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi just returned from meetings in Iran and will report his findings to the Board.   The Board is also likely to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the risk posed to nuclear power plants in Ukraine due to Russia’s war on Ukraine.  This coming week will also mark the 1000 day since Russia’s invasion.  EU foreign ministers will meet in Brussels this week to discuss the situation, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will address the European Parliament to mark the grim milestone.

In the U.S., President-elect Donald Trump is expected to continue his rapid-fire announcements of cabinet and other senior staff picks.  So far, Trump is moving at a historically fast pace in assembling his team and is likely to push the incoming Senate to push through required confirmation votes in advance of his inauguration on January 20th (the new Congress is sworn in on January 3rd).

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, markets will be keenly focused on several major central bank speeches, including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s remarks on Monday and Friday and the speech of the Central Bank of Japan Kazuo Ueda on Monday.

Among the major economic data reports, the U.S. Redbook is out Tuesday, initial jobless claims are out Thursday, and the Michigan Consumer Report is out Friday.  In Europe, UK consumer confidence figures and retail sales are out Friday.  In Asia, Japan releases trade balance figures on Wednesday and inflation data on Thursday.

Below is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:

Sunday, November 17, 2024

Global

·       The G20 Leaders’ Summit takes place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron visits Argentina.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FDI (YTD) (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier gives a speech at parliament on Remembrance Day attended by his Romanian counterpart Klaus Iohannis in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Senegal holds snap parliamentary elections.

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Nigeria.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 18, 2024 

Global

·       The G20 Leaders’ Summit begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

·       The Council of the International Maritime Organization meets in London.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the protection of civilians in Sudan. Afterwards, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East. In the afternoon at 3:30 p.m., it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine.

·       The International Atomic Energy Commissions holds is quarterly Board of Governors meeting in Vienna, Austria.  The main focus of their meeting is expected to be Iran’s ongoing development of nuclear weapons.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to give welcome remarks before the Financial Markets Group Fall Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

·       Chile Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Canada Housing Starts (October)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (September)

·       USA NAHB Housing Market Index (November)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (September)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (September)

·       Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong's Monetary Authority hosts its third Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit, bringing together Wall Street dealmakers and investors. It is Hong Kong's flagship event for courting global capital, as the city seeks to maintain its international financial hub status amid geopolitical tensions between China and the West.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo gives a speech in Nagoya, Japan.

·       New Zealand Services & Composite NZ PCI (October)/ PPI Input & Output Q3

·       Japan Machinery Orders (September)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (October)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Services PMI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels. EU Foreign affairs ministers will discuss the state of affairs in Ukraine, Georgia, EU-US relations, the situation in the Middle East, and the Horn of Africa.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will receive the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany, Annalena Baerbock, at his official residence in Brussels.  He will also meet with the Prime Minister of Romania, Marcel Ciolacu, at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. The ministers will discuss the situation of agricultural markets and commodities, a recurring topic on the Council's agenda. In this context, the presidency will also present an 'other business' item on the outcome of the sectoral debates it organized on the current challenges facing the different agricultural sectors and their future perspectives.  The Ukrainian Minister for Agrarian Policy and Food, Vitalii Koval, is expected to join the ministers prior to their discussion and to address the Council.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU ministers in Budapest responsible for demographic issues through November 19.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech on "Les enjeux économiques et humains d'une ère en mutation" at the "Les Essentiels des Bernardins" in Paris, France

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the opening speech at the 27th Euro Finance Week "Setting the course for 2025" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the SUERF Marjolin lecture at the conference “Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and Policy: New Perspectives” organized by Banca d’Italia in Rome, Italy.

·       Switzerland Industrial Production Q3

·       Euro Area / Balance of Trade (September)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (September)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (October)

·       Belarus GDP (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October)

Tuesday, November 19, 2024 

Global

·       The G20 Summit continues in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

·       Today is the 1000 day since Russia invaded Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In the House of Representatives, Democrats will vote on their leadership.

·       A judge in New York will consider dismissing charges against President-elect Trump over hush money payments.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Inflation Rate (October)/ CPI Median (October)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (October)

·       USA Building Permits Prel (October)/ Housing Starts (October)/ Redbook (November/16)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/15)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       A Hong Kong court is due to hand down sentences in the city's biggest national security trial. The case concerns the so-called Hong Kong 47 -- nearly four dozen democrats who were charged for holding unofficial primaries in July 2020 to select candidates for the city's Legislative Council election. Of the group, 45 were convicted of "conspiracy to commit subversion" under the strict national security law Beijing forced upon the city four years ago. The sentences, which could be as severe as life in prison, will be followed the next day by the resumption of another closely watched trial -- that of jailed pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (November/19)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses special session of European Parliament from Kyiv marking the 1000 day of the Ukraine War.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will participate in a meeting of the Foreign Affairs Council of the European Union (EU) in Defence Ministers’ format. The meeting will take place at the Europa building of the Council of the EU, in Brussels.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the upcoming December European Council, the annual rule of law dialogue, and other issues.

·       Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey appears before parliament's Treasury Committee.

·       There will be a National Farmers Union rally in London, protesting about new government policies, in particular applying inheritance tax to agricultural land.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at the 10th Green Finance Forum "Innovate in nature" during 27th Euro Finance Week "Setting the course for 2025" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (October)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (October)

·       Euro Area Current Account (September)/ Inflation Rate Final (October)/ CPI Final (October)/ Labour Cost Index Flash Q3

·       Italy Current Account (September)

·       Hungry Deposit Interest Rate (November)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel holds local elections for people in areas close to the border of Gaza and Lebanon who were unable to vote in February.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, November 20, 2024 

Global

·       The International Network of AI Safety Institute meets in San Francisco to discuss global safety issues around artificial intelligence will take place. The network members include Australia, Canada, the EU, France, Japan, Kenya, South Korea, Singapore, the UK and the US.

·       The UN Security Council holds closed-door meeting on Lebanon.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Lula will hold bilateral meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

·       Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits Argentina for meetings with President Javier Milei.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron visits Chile.

·        India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Guyana.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Agency Policymaking” at The Forum Club of the Palm Beaches, West Palm Beach, Florida.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/15)/ MBA Purchase Index (November/15)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (November/15)/ EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change (November/15)/ EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change (November/15)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (October)/ Leading Indicator (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Defense ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meet in Laos for talks, as they consider new members for the bloc's expanded defense meeting platform, known as the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus). The platform currently has eight non-ASEAN members -- Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea and the U.S. -- while France, Canada and the U.K. have expressed interest in joining.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (October)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (October)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (November)

·       Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q3

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (October)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (November)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (October)/ Current Account Q3

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia’s Upper House of parliament begins considering a law banning promotion of childless lifestyles.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the welcoming address at the ECB conference on financial stability and macroprudential policy 2024 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the dinner speech at the ECB conference on financial stability and macroprudential policy 2024 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden gives a speech on monetary policy at the University of Leeds.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (November)/ Residential Property Prices (September)

·       Germany PPI (October)

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI Input & Output (October)/ Retail Price Index (October)

·       Euro Area ECB Financial Stability Review/ Construction Output (September)/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q3

·       Greece Current Account (September)

·       Italy Construction Output (September)

·       Russia PPI (October)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (October)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (October)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (November)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Southern Africa regional bloc, the South Africa Development Community Summit, will hold a summit to discuss the post-electoral crisis in Mozambique.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (October)/ Business Confidence Q4/ Retail Sales (September)

Thursday, November 21, 2024

Global

·       The BRICS International Municipal Forum Economic Congress meets in St. Petersburg, Russia.

·       The UN Security Council meets on Syria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Washington Post holds its 3rd Annual Global Women’s Summit in Washington, D.C.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will give a speech on “Banks and Artificial Intelligence” at the 2024 FinRegLab AI Symposium in Washington, D.C.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack to participate in conversation before the 2024 Financial Stability Conference: Emerging Risks in a Time of Interconnectedness and Innovation, hosted by the Cleveland Fed and the Office of Financial Research.

·       Mexico Retail Sales (September)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (October)/ PPI (October)/ Raw Materials Prices (October)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (November/16)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices Paid/ Business Conditions/ Manufacturing Index (November)/ Existing Home Sales (October)/ CB Leading Index (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (November/15)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (November)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (November/20)/ Fed Balance Sheet (November/20)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (November)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (October)

·       Paraguay PPI (October)

·       Peru Current Account Q3/GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Defense ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meet in Laos for talks, as they consider new members for the bloc's expanded defense meeting platform, known as the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus). The platform currently has eight non-ASEAN members -- Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea and the U.S. -- while France, Canada and the U.K. have expressed interest in joining.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo speaks at the Paris Europlace Financial Forum 2024 being held in Tokyo.

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November/16)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/16)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (October)

·       Indonesia Current Account Q3

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (October)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels.  They will discuss the future of the EU’s trade policy.

·       Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets other officials to discuss Caspian sea cooperation in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives the welcoming
remarks at the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures meeting (ECRB) in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give the keynote speech at the CEBRA International Finance and Macroeconomics conference "The Role of Central Banks and International Financial Institutions in the Transition Towards a Low-Carbon Economy" in Luxembourg.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a policy panel at 27th Annual Research Conference “The Macroeconomic Effects of Geopolitical Uncertainty” organized by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at the University of Cyprus in Nicosia, Cyprus.

·       Netherlands Consumer Confidence (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       European Union New Car Registrations (October)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (November)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/15)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (October)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (November)

·       France Business Confidence (November)/ Business Climate Indicator (November)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (November)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (November)/ PPI (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (October)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (October)/ Total Credit Growth (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, November 22, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada hosts Nato parliamentary assembly annual session in Montreal, featuring 281 parliament members from 32 Nato member states addressing topics on the Euro-Atlantic Defence and security agenda.

·       The Halifax International Security Forum begins in Halifax and runs through November 24.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech on Artificial Intelligence at the 27th Annual Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century in Washington, D.C.

·       Chile PPI (October)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final Q3/ Economic Activity (September)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (November)

·       Canada Retail Sales (September)

·       USA S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations/ Current Conditions/ Inflation Expectations Final (November)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/22)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Judo Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (October)/ Jibun Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Singapore Current Account Q3/ Inflation Rate (October)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (October)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (October)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/15)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belarus Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov hosts Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for bilateral meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the 34th European Banking Congress "Out of the Comfort Zone: Europe and the New World Order" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the Foro Observatorio Económico organized by El Confidencial/MAPFRE in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a fireside chat at the JPMorgan European Financials Conference in London, UK.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on Panel 3 "Monetary policy" at colloquium in honor of Claudio Borio in Basel, Switzerland.

·       Great Britain GfK Consumer Confidence (November)/ Retail Sales (October)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Final Q3/ HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (September)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       France HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (October)

·       Slovakia Current Account (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (October)

·       Nigeria Balance of Trade (July)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Balance of Trade (September)

Saturday, November 23, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukraine holds International Holodomor Memorial Day, commemorating the estimated  7 to 10 million people killed during the 1932-33 Holodomor (“murder by hunger”).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2024 African Economic Conference will be held in Gaborone, Botswana, to explore ways to secure Africa’s economic future.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 24, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Uruguay holds presidential runoff elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds presidential elections. Surveys show that the current leading candidates are not backed by the governing Social Democrats (PSD) and the Liberals (PNL).  PSD and PNL will likely agree on a joint candidate ahead of the vote, with current Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of the PSD being the most likely candidate. A second round will be held on 8 December.

·       Switzerland holds a vote on two referendums including one the 13th OASI pension payment – adding a 13th month of pension payments. And one raising the retirement age this year.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea Bissau holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Entering the Final Week of the U.S. Election Campaign Season, Gaza Peace Negotiators Try Again to Broker a Cease-Fire, And A Big US Economic Data Week

October 27 - November 3, 2024

The U.S. is going into the final week of campaigning in what is proving to be one of the tensest presidential elections in recent memory and too close to predict at this point.  Polling has proven to be extremely tight and, more often than not, confusing to most observers.  But it seems it all comes down to whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the presidency.  Control of the U.S. House of Representatives is also proving to be close but seems to lean toward Democrats winning control, while control of the Senate looks likely to flip to Republicans.  But one thing is clear: Everyone we have spoken to cannot wait until November 5th to get the voting behind us.

Looking globally, the coming week is relatively quiet following a busy week of the IMF/World Bank meetings and BRICS Summit (which seems to have been something of a bust for host Russian President Vladimir Putin with little achieved).  Markets are somewhat relieved Israel's much anticipated retaliatory attack on Iran Saturday appears to have been limited and likely not to lead to further direct Iranian strikes or significant expansion of fighting in the region.  But Israeli action against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon continues and is not expected to end anytime soon.  Meanwhile, Israeli, U.S., and Qatari negotiators are gathering in Doha this week in another effort to broker a cease-fire in Gaza.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, it will be a busy week in the U.S. as the Conference Board's consumer confidence report is on Tuesday, the Q3 GDP numbers are out on Wednesday, PCE data is on Thursday, and the jobs report is released Friday.

In Asia, it is also going to be a busy week in Japan.  The Bank of Japan (BoJ) meets on Thursday to decide interest rates.  We will also see the BoJ release its Outlook Report on Thursday.  This comes after the labor market indicator print is released on Monday, and the Industrial Production and Consumer Confidence reports are released on Wednesday. 

China releases its PMIs on Thursday and the Caixin Manufacturing PMI on Friday.   But markets will particularly examine this week's earnings from large Chinese banks to gauge loan losses, giving a better insight into the country's ongoing economic challenges.

Turning to Europe, Germany, France, and the Eurozone will release Q3 GDP figures.  Germany will also release inflation figures on Wednesday, with France and Italy releasing their inflation figures on Thursday.  In the U.K., the much-anticipated first budget of the recently elected Labour Government will be presented on Wednesday.

There are very few major central bank speeches scheduled this week following a busy week in Washington last week at the IMF/World Bank meetings.  The U.S. Federal Reserve Board is in its "black-out period" in advance of the FMOC meeting on November 6 and 7.  Among G7 central banks, the most notable event is Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem's testimony before the Canadian parliament this week.

Below is what else we are closely watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Global

·       European and British Summer Time end. Clocks go back one hour. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Uruguay holds presidential and parliamentary elections. However, the elections are being marred by a controversial $23 billion proposal to overhaul the social security system. If approved, the measure would increase minimum payouts, lower the retirement age and transfer privately managed savings to a government-run trust in what advocates see as a way to share the nation’s resources more equally.

·        Brazil holds its second round of municipal elections. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds snap elections for its the House of Representatives. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party  (LDP) is at risk of losing its majority in the lower house, which would mean the LDP would have to rely on a coalition partnership with the Komeito Party– which is currently does to hold power in the upper house.  The LDP needs to win 233 seats for an outright majority.

·       Uzbekistan holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds the second round of parliamentary elections.

·       Bulgaria will hold snap parliamentary elections. This is the third attempt to form a government since June and the sixth snap elections held in the country since 2021.

·       Liechtenstein holds a vote on a referendum on the privatization of Radio Lichtenstein.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli, Qatari, and US negotiators will meet in Doha seeking a cease-fire in Gaza.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 28, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Sudan. Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on 2713 Committee (dealing with Somalia as well as a Troop Contributing Countries (TCC) meeting.  

·       The OECD releases Guidelines on Corporate Governance of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs).

·       The OECD holds its Sustainable Agricultural Productivity Conference in Paris.

·       The UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) experts will present the organization's annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.

·       The UN’s International Conference on Women, Peace and Security will be held through October 31 in Manila, Philippines.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Canadian province of Saskatchewan holds legislative elections.

·       The 2024 Microelectronics Commons Annual Meeting and National Semiconductor Technology Center Symposium begins in Washington.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (September)/ CFIB Business Barometer (October)

·       Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem will participate in a fireside chat at the Logic Summit in Ontario.

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (September)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

·       Colombia Business Confidence (September)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippine Senate will begin an investigation into former President Rodrigo Duterte's controversial war on drugs. The policy began when he was elected in 2016 and by some estimates led to the killing of as many as 30,000 Filipinos. As Nikkei recently reported, an investigation by congressional lawmakers has recently confirmed a bounty system for police that directly linked Duterte's allies, including two sitting senators, to the violent campaign.

·       The Asian Development Bank will elect a new president.  Only one candidate is running – Japan’s former currency czar Masato Kana. 

·       ASEAN Labor Ministers meet in Singapore.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Malaysia PPI (September)

·       Singapore Import & Export Prices (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (October)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Finnish President Alexander Stubb begins a state visit to China.  Stubb is expected to discuss the war in Ukraine and China’s role in supporting Russian forces.  They are also going to talk about the ongoing trade disputes with the EU and bilateral trade issues.

·       The EU-Western Balkans Ministerial Forum begins in Montenegro.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron begins a three-day state visit to the former colony, marking a step towards easing three years of strained relations between the two countries.

·       The 2024 Session of the Nordic Council begins in Reykjavik, Iceland and runs through October 31.  The theme of the meeting is “Peace and Security in the Arctic.”  There are 87 elected members of te Council from Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, The Faroe Islands, Norway, Greenland, and Åland Islands.  Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya will address the group in a bid to encourage continued opposition to the Belarus dictatorship.

·       The environmental group, Extinction Rebellion, is expected to hold large protest targeting London-based issuers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a speech and participates in a Q&A at Foro Reflexión organized by Grupo Hotusa in Madrid, Spain

·       Spain Retail Sales (September)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (September)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Saudi Arabia hosts the Future Investment Initiative (FII) through October 31.  The event is a showcase explaining the kingdom’s vision for transforming the country into a financial hub as well as the country’s advancements in technology, minerals, and mining.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 10th session of the UN Global Geospatial Information Management for Africa will be held in Addis Ababa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (September)

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Current Account (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)

·       Canada BoC Macklem Speech

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (September)

·       USA Goods Trade Balance Adv (September)/ Redbook (October/26)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (August)/ House Price Index (August)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (September)/ CB Consumer Confidence (October)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (October)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/25)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Mining and Resources Conference will be held in Sydney, Australia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (September)/ Jobs/applications ratio (September)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (September)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (September)/ M4 Money Supply (September)/ Net Lending to Individuals (September)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa HealthTech Summit begins in Kigali, Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (September)/ Private Sector Credit (September)

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Global

·       A Joint meeting of G20 Finance Ministers and Health Ministers will take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.  Later, the G20 Health Ministers Conference will meet.

·       G20 Education Ministers will meet in Fortaleza, Brazil.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold votes linked to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) and the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). Also in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold votes related to the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) and Colombia.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada will host the Ministerial Conference on Human Dimension of Ukraine’s Peace Formula in Montreal.  he Ministerial Conference will bring together Foreign Affairs Ministers to advance the common vision articulated by the Joint Communiqué on a Peace Framework developed at the Summit on Peace in Ukraine at Bürgenstock, Switzerland, in June 2024.  During the conference, Ministers will exchange views with the aim of developing a concrete plan, guided by the principles of international human rights and humanitarian law, for the return of prisoners of war as well as deported civilians and children back to Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (October)/ Bank Lending (September)/ PPI (September)/ Net Payrolls (September)

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (October/25)/ ADP Employment Change (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3/ GDP Sales Q3/ PCE Prices Q3/ Real Consumer Spending Q3/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ Pending Home Sales (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/25)

·       Chile Copper/ Industrial/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Fiscal Balance (September)

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will testfy before the Canadian Parliament. 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun will meet with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Washington for the 56th Bilateral Security Consultative Meetings.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia CPI Q3/ Monthly CPI Indicator (September)/ Inflation Rate Q3/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q3/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q3

·       Philippines PPI (September)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (September)

·       Japan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Singapore Business Confidence Q3

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (October)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       India Infrastructure Output (September)/ M3 Money Supply (October/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission is expected to publish the final disclosure for planned import duties on Chinese made electric vehicles (EV).  Once implemented, the duties will be in place for five years.

·       The UK Autumn Budget will be presented to Parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech at the SAFE-CEPR conference on Euro@25 organized by Leibniz Institute SAFE in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Netherlands Business Confidence (October)

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (September)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (October)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (October)/ Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ SNB Press Conference

·       Germany Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (October)/ Bavaria CPI (October)/ Brandenburg CPI (October)/ Hesse CPI (October)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (October)/ Saxony CPI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q3/ PPI (September)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (October)

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Economic Sentiment (October)/ Consumer Confidence Final (October)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)/ Industrial Sentiment (October)/ Selling Price Expectations (October)/ Services Sentiment (October)/ ECB Schnabel Speech

·       Greece PPI (September)

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (October)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Business Confidence (October)/ Corporate Profits (August)/ Real Wage Growth (August)/ Retail Sales (September)/ GDP (September)

·       Great Britain Autumn Budget 2024

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (September)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Botswana holds general elections.  President Mokgweetsi Masisi is expected to win a second five-year term.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Budget Balance (September)/ Medium-term budget statement

Thursday, October 31, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Threats to international peace and security. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (September)/ Nominal Budget Balance (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (October)/ Personal Income & Spending (September)/ Employment Cost Index Q3/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/26)/ PCE Price Index (September)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/26)/ Chicago PMI (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/25)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/30)

·       Canada GDP (August)/ Average Weekly Earnings (August)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (September)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India celebrates Diwali, the festival of lights. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Japan Industrial Production (September) / Retail Sales (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October/26)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (October)

·       Australia Housing Credit (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Export Prices Q3/ Import Prices Q3/ Private Sector Credit (September)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (October)

·       China NBS Manufacturing & Non- Manufacturing PMI (October)/ NBS General PMI (October)

·       Japan Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Housing Starts (September)/ Construction Orders (September)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (September)/ Current Account (September)/ Private Consumption & Investment (September)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       India Government Budget Value (September)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (September)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia hosts the World Congress of Compatriots Living Abroad.  The meeting brings together approximately 400 leaders and activists from Russian communities from 103 countries.  The agenda includes “…the preservation of traditional and family values, the safeguarding of cultural and historical heritage, protection of the rights and legitimate interests of compatriots, promotion of the Russian language and education, engagement of youth in diaspora activities, development of Russian-language media, and matters concerning relocation to the Russian Federation.”

·       The 2nd International Eurasian Security Conference will be held in Minsk, Belarus through November 1.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will chair the conference.

·       The UK Conservative Party elections will end.  The new Party leader will be announced on Saturday, November 2.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden will give a speech in Hong Kong entitled “Engaging with the machine: AI and Financial Stability.”

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (October)

·       Germany Retail Sales (September)/ Import Prices (September)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (September)/ Tourism Revenues Q3/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/25)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (August)/ PPI (September)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (September)

·       France Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI (September)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Bulletin/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ CPI Flash (October)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (September)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Industrial Sales (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (October)

·       Greece Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision/ Current Account (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       South Africa PPI (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (October)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)

Friday, November 1, 2024

Global

·       The United Kingdom takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of November.

·       The G20 Disaster Risk Reduction Ministerial meeting takes place in Belem, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the Day of the Dead in Mexico.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Business Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (October)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/ Participation Rate (October)/ Government Payrolls (October)/ Manufacturing & Nonfarm Payrolls (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Construction Spending (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/01)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (October)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (October)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (September)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ Building Permits (September)/ Home Loans (September)/ Investment Lending for Homes (September)/ PPI Q3/ Commodity Prices (October)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ Bank Loan Growth (October/18)/ Deposit Growth (October/18)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/25)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q3/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (September)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (October)/ Wholesale Prices (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korean troops are expected to begin deploying against Ukrainian Forces in Kursk.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Most financial markets are closed as is the European Central Bank for All Saints’ Day, a public holiday.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Netherlands Retail Sales (September)/ NEVI Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (October)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Spain New Car Sales (October)

·       Italy New Car Registrations (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (October)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (October)

Saturday, November 2, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       One of our favorite days of the year!  The end of Daylight Savings as clocks are set back one hour and we get an extra hour of sleep.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2nd round of presidential elections takes place in Moldova.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Standing Committee National People's Congress will gather for meetings through November 8.  They will consider draft laws and amendments to laws dealing with mineral resources, energy, anti-money laundering, and maritime issues.  They are not expected to discuss the ongoing national economic challenges or how to deal with the debt crisis.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings Convenes in Washington – As Does the Annual BRICS Meeting in Russia, Important Elections Being Held in Eastern Europe, What Happens Next in the Middle East After Sinwar’s Death?

October 20 - 27, 2024

This will be an extremely busy and particularly important week, both geopolitically and for global markets.  The World Bank/International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings are being held in Washington, D.C. this week.  As finance ministers and central bank chiefs from around the world converge on Washington to discuss global economic issues, managing growing global debt, which, as the IMF reported this past week, is approaching $100 trillion globally – 93 percent of the global GDP – and is on track to surpass 100 percent of global GDP by 2030).  On the sidelines of the meetings, G20 Finance Ministers will also meet in Washington under the chairmanship of Brazil, who is strongly advocating the voice of the “Global South” as a growing economic power.

However, as the World Bank/IMF meetings occur, leaders of the BRICS nations will gather in Russia to meet under the chair of Russian President Vladimir Putin.  The meeting – seen by Moscow as something of a victory over Western sanctions and pressure to end its war on Ukraine – will see the presidents or prime ministers of China, India, Turkey, the UAE, Brazil, Iran, Egypt, and more than 24 other countries discussing issues including how to end the dominance of the US dollar and building an alternative financial system.  Most observers are not expecting any significant breakthroughs.  But it is also likely the BRICS will approve the invitation to up to two dozen new member countries.

Also this week, several important elections are being held in countries Russia is battling to influence and draw into its orbit: Moldova, Bulgaria, and Georgia.  Russian efforts have become so brazen—especially in Moldova—that they are offering bribes to vote against the pro-EU/pro-West governments.

We also continue to watch the evolving situation in the Middle East.  Israel continues to prepare for a retaliatory military strike against Iran (which could come at any time) while continuing its efforts to destroy Hezbollah’s operations in Southern Lebanon.  But the news that Hamas’ political leader, Yahha Sinwar, has been killed by Israeli Forces may prove to be an inflection point in the war in Gaza.  At the time of this writing, there are reports trickling in of larger numbers of Hamas fighters surrendering to Israeli Forces.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, beyond the World Bank/IMF meetings and BRICS meeting, markets are focused on the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on Wednesday and the durable goods orders report on Friday.  Also, the Bank of Canada meets on interest rates on Wednesday.

In Asia, China will announce its 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates on Monday and any new stimulus plans or details of already announced stimulus plans coming from Beijing.   In Japan, the October CPI is out this Friday.

Turning to Europe, the European Central Bank’s consumer expectations survey will be released on Friday, as will Germany’s Ifo survey and France’s, Italy’s, and the U.K.’s consumer confidence reports.

Below is what else we are closely watching happening around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 20, 2024

Global

·       The BRICS 1st Climate Congress will be held in Sochi, Russia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Revolution Day in Guatemala, celebrating the overthrow of a dictatorship in 1944.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia’s new president, Prabowa Sunianto, will be sworn into office. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (September)

·       China FDI (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds presidential elections and a vote on a constitutional referendum on EU integration. There are substantial fears Russia will seek to disrupt the elections in an attempt to block a yes vote on joining the EU – to the point where Russian operatives are openly offering bribes to Moldovans to vote against joining the EU.  Pro-EU President Maya Sandu is likely to receive the most votes in the election, but a runoff is also likely.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraq holds regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 21, 2024

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will be in Addis Ababa to take part in the 8th African Union – United Nations annual conference. The high-level discussions will be co-chaired by Moussa Faki Mahamat, the Chairperson of the African Union Commission and the Secretary-General. Later in the day, the Secretary-General will go to the UN Economic Commission for Africa in Addis Ababa, where he will take part in the re-inauguration ceremony of Africa Hall, which is reopening after extensive renovations to transform it into a modern conference center.

·       The UN Convention on Biological Diversity (COP16) to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) in Cali, Colombia through November 1.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on maintenance of international peace and security: Anticipating the impact of scientific developments on international peace and security. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is likely to visit Israel for talks regarding the situation in Gaza and pursue new cease-fire negotiations in the wake of the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid to speak on the economic and monetary policy outlook before hybrid event hosted by the Chartered Financial Analyst Society, Kansas City.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to speak and participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the 2024 SIFMA (Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association) Annual Meeting in New York.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in Chippewa Falls Chamber of Commerce town hall.

·       USA CB Leading Index (September)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (September)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. and Philippine military forces will participate in the Sama Sama 2024 and Kamandag 8 drills through October 24.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Hauser Speech

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (September)

·       Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3

·       Taiwan Export Orders (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·    Singapore’s International Energy Week begins and runs through October 26. Speakers include industry executives and energy ministers from Tanzania, Cambodia, Laos, Australia and New Zealand, discussing energy security and transition plans.

• The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Luxembourg through October 22.  The ministers will discuss reaching a political agreement on next year’s fishing opportunities in the Baltic Sea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (September)

·       Greece Current Account (August)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (September)/ Employment Growth (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Slovenia PPI (September)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (September)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (September)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (August)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (September)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit (August)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique’s opposition politician Venâncio Mondlane, who early vote counts placed second in the country’s October 9 presidential election, called for a countrywide strike today to protest preliminary results he’s already rejected. He urged supporters to “paralyze” the country, according to a video posted to his social media channels including YouTube on Wednesday. Mondlane has repeatedly said he was winning.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, October 22, 2024

Global

·       The 16th BRICS Summit begins in Kazan, Russia, and runs through October 24.  This is the first time the BRICS has met since expanding the membership to include Iran, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Ethiopia.  In total, leaders from 32 countries are expected to attend.  Among the agenda items will be efforts to move away from the dominance of the US dollar further, create an alternative financial infrastructure, and plan for future expansion.

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting with ICJ briefing. In the afternoon, a briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) is scheduled to be held, followed by consultations.

·       G7 Development Ministers meet in Pescara, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada's 25% surtax on Chinese steel and aluminum imports will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "Fintech" before the Eighth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

·       Mexico Economic Activity (August)

·       Canada PPI (September)/ Raw Materials Prices (September)

·       USA Redbook (October/19)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (October)/ Money Supply (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/18)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (September)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Parliament will debate and vote on a €35 billion financial assistance package for Ukraine as part of the G7’s support initiative. The package leverages extraordinary profits from frozen Russian assets and aims to address Ukraine’s urgent financing needs in the face of Russia’s brutal war of aggression.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to the Western Balkans for meetings with the presidents and prime ministers of Montenegro, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina regarding further integration with the European Union, including stronger trade ties.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will travel to Estonia for meetings with Estonian President Alar Karis and Prime Minister Kristen Michal. The next day, he will meet with Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna and then visit the Tapa Army Base, where he will address the troops together with the President of Estonia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel discussion about "The future of cross-border payments: faster safer together – safe and inclusive fast payments across borders" during the IMF/WB Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C.  Lagarde will also be interviewed by Bloomberg Television's Francine Lacqua at the IMF.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will give the keynote address at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum in New York.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives the keynote speech at the annual SCION Day 2024 organized by ETH (Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule) in Zürich, Switzerland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a speech at the Central Banking Seminar of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York. He then will give a speech at Colombia University.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel discussion at the Bloomberg's Global Regulatory Forum in New York.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (September)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (September)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (August)

·       Poland Retail Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (September)/ Deposit Interest Rate (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (August)

Wednesday, October 23, 2024 

Global

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers will meet in Washington, D.C. on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings.

·       G20 Trade and Investment Ministers will meet in Brasilia, Brazil through October 25.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, there will be a briefing on the Middle East followed by consultations (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman to give opening remarks on second day of the Eighth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak on "Recognizing the Impact of Community Colleges" before the 2024 Virginia Education and Workforce Conference.

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (October/18)/ Existing Home Sales (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/18)/ Fed Beige Book

·       Mexico Retail Sales (August)

·       Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision/ BoC Monetary Policy Report/ BoC Press Conference to follow.

·       Argentina Economic Activity (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (September)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ New Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at an "Atlantic Council Front Page" event in Washington, D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in panel "CBDC, cross border payments and the future of money in a deglobalized world" at 'Bretton woods in a new world' conference organized by Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee in Washington, D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in conversation session at 2024 IIF Annual Membership Meeting "Thriving in turbulence: Sustaining growth in a new economic landscape" in Washington, D.C,

·        Turkey Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (October)

·       Russia Industrial Production (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (September)/ Total Credit Growth (September)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 24, 2024

Global

·      The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on women and peace and security.

·      G20 Anti-Corruption Ministers will meet in Natal, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Montserrat holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack to give welcome remarks before the “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2024" event hosted by the Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the European Central Bank.

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (October)/ Federal Tax Revenues (September)

·       Chile PPI (September)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (October)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (September)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/19)/ / S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)/ New Home Sales (September)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/18)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (October)/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/23)/ Building Permits Final (September)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/23)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Adv Q3

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/19)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Final Q3

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (September)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (September)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Denmark hosts North Sea Cooperation ministers meeting in   The Cooperative consists of Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Germany, Norway, Ireland, Luxembourg and the European Commission. Great Britain participates as an observer.

·       The European Court of Justice will rule on Intel's fight against a once-record €1.06 billion EU antitrust fine for rebates to laptop makers.

·       The EU’s Conference of Presidents (EP President Metsola and political group leaders) will decide on the winner of the 2024 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought. The three shortlisted candidates are (in alphabetical order): Dr Gubad Ibadoghlu, academic and anti-corruption activist in Azerbaijan; María Corina Machado, as leader of the democratic forces in Venezuela and President-elect Edmundo González Urrutia; and "Women Wage Peace" and "Women of the Sun", Israel/Palestine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will be a panelist at the G30 39th Annual International Banking Seminar hosted by the Inter-American Bank in Washington, D.C.  Later, Bailey will give the Mike Gill Memorial Lecture at the CFTC in Washington.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul  participates  in panel discussion at the 2024 IIF Annual Membership Meeting in Washington D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives remarks at a conference entitled "Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics" organized by ECB and FED Cleveland Fed in Cleveland, Ohio.

·       France Business Confidence (October)/ Business Climate Indicator (October)/ HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)/ CBI Business Optimism Index Q4/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (October)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/18)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, October 25, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Semafor holds its World Economy Summit in Washington through October 25.  Among the speakers will be Amos Hochstein, President Biden’s Special Advisor on Energy Security and other senior Administration officials.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (October)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (September)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (October)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (October)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/25)

·       Paraguay PPI (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (October)/ Coincident Index Final (August)/ Leading Economic Index Final (August)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Prel Q3/ Industrial Production (September)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (August)/ Leading Index (August)

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q4

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (October 18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will visit India through October 27. Accompanying Scholz will be a large number of German CEOs seeking new investment opportunities with India.  The German government recently released a white paper entitled “Focus on India” which seeks to lay the groundwork for a stronger partnership with India. Additionally, discussions between Scholz and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will focus on greater defense cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a re-recorded speech at a conference entitled "EU Banking Regulation at a Turning Point" organized by Universitá degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (October)/ CBI Distributive Trades (October)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (September)

·       France Consumer Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (September)/ Jobseekers Total (September)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q3/ PPI (September)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (October)/ Capacity Utilization (October)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (October)/ Ifo Current Conditions (October)/ Ifo Expectations (October)

·       Italy Business Confidence (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Greece Total Credit (September)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (October)

Saturday, October 26, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan General Elections

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Georgia will hold parliamentary elections.  Much like the elections earlier in the week in Moldova, significant Russian efforts to interfere and influence in the elections are expected.  The elections are expected to be decisive in determining if Georgia moves toward possible EU integration or rejects integration for a tighter alliance with Russia. The ruling Georgian Dream Party has accused Western entities of attempting to destabilize the country, while the opposition and Western allies argue that the government is undermining democratic principles. If Georgian Dream wins, it has vowed to ban the main opposition parties, leading to fears of democratic backsliding, while a victory for the opposition could restore Georgia’s pro-Western course.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Uruguay holds presidential and parliamentary elections. However, the elections are being marred by a controversial $23 billion proposal to overhaul the social security system. If approved, the measure would increase minimum payouts, lower the retirement age and transfer privately managed savings to a government-run trust in what advocates see as a way to share the nation’s resources more equally.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds snap elections for its the House of Representatives. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party  (LDP) is at risk of losing its majority in the lower house, which would mean the LDP would have to rely on a coalition partnership with the Komeito Party– which is currently does to hold power in the upper house.  The LDP needs to win 233 seats for an outright majority.

·       Uzbekistan holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds the second round of parliamentary elections.

·       Bulgaria will hold snap parliamentary elections. This is the third attempt to form a government since June and the sixth snap elections held in the country since 2021.

·       Liechtenstein holds a vote on a referendum on the privatization of Radio Lichtenstein.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The Tense Wait for Israel’s Military Response to Iran’s Attack Continues, the European Council Gathers on Ukraine and Middle East Policy, Biden Goes to Germany, and the ECB Meets on Rates

October 13 - 20, 2024

With less than a month until the US elections, the world tensely awaits Israel's promised military response to Iran's recent missile attack as Israeli military forces continue to intensify their attacks on Hezbollah forces in Southern Lebanon.  It remains unclear if Israel will attack Iranian nuclear facilities or oil production and shipping facilities or, military sites, or critical infrastructure facilities – or some variation of all of these. 

The situation in the Middle East and Ukraine will be the focus of EU leaders this week as the European Council meets in Brussels.  Of note, the leaders will discuss and debate further military aid to Ukraine and allowing Ukraine to use NATO/EU weapons to strike Russian positions and troops inside Russia – something Russian President Vladimir Putin has angrily threatened the West would be seen as a significant escalation crossing one of his "red lines." 

The EU leaders will also discuss the recently released competitiveness reports written by former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and how best to implement the report's sweeping recommendations.  They will also discuss ongoing trade tensions with China.

Later in the week, President Biden will visit Germany for meetings with German Chancellor Scholz.  Biden was scheduled to visit last week but had to cancel due to Hurricane Milton hitting Florida. 

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, markets are preparing for the IMF/World Bank meetings beginning on October 21st.  Until then, markets are focused on US retail sales and industrial production figures released this week as indicators of where the Federal Reserve will go with rates when it meets in November. 

Moving to Asia, markets remain intensely focused on China following the extraordinary efforts to stabilize the economy.  Beijing releases inflation figures and important trade balance numbers this week.  Elsewhere, Japan releases CPI figures.

In Europe, the European Central Bank meets on interest rates, and markets anticipate a 25-basis point cut.  The UK releases inflation data, and Germany sees the release of the ZEW survey, which will better clarify how the country's economy is doing in the face of a spate of negative data.

Below are the other major political and economic events we are watching this coming week:

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Global

·       The World Health Summit begins in Berlin.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden was scheduled to travel to Angola for meetings through October 15 with Angolan President João Lourenço to discuss increased trade and climate collaboration. However, the trip was cancelled due to Hurricane Herman hitting Florida.

·       The XVI Conference of Defense Ministers of the Americas takes through October 16 I Mendoza, Argentina.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China PPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ New Yuan Loans (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (September)/ Total Social Financing (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets with senior Iraqi leaders in Baghdad.  Araghchi has been traveling throughout the region this past week meeting with leaders in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE in an effort to gather support and in advance of an expected Israeli attack on Iran.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 14, 2024

Global

·      OPEC releases its monthly report. 

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet for consultations on 1559 report (regarding the security situation in Lebanon).

·       The Nobel Prize for Economics winner is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada celebrates Thanksgiving.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Today is Columbus Day in the US. Stock markets remain open while bond markets and some banks observe the day and are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on the economic outlook before the "A 50-Year Retrospective on The Shadow Open Market Committee and Its Role in Monetary Policy" conference hosted by Stanford University.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in panel discussion at the Central Bank of Argentina's Money and Banking Conference:" Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Policy and Inflation” in Argentina.  Later, he participates in lecture/fireside chat," The Current State of U.S. Monetary Policy," hosted by the Department of Economics at Torcuato di Tella University in Buenos Aires.

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (August)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Premier Li Qiang will visit Vietnam through October 14 and sign a railway deal. It is the first official visit to Vietnam by a Chinese premier in 11 years.

·       U.S. and Philippine military forces will participate in the Sama Sama 2024 and Kamandag 8 drills through October 24.

·       Malaysia's parliament will convene and likely pass the Mufti Bill, which would empower religious figures to make edicts without parliamentary oversight.

·       Today is Health and Sports Day in Japan.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (September)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (September)

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Adv Q3

·       India WPI Food Index (September)/ WPI Fuel (September)/ WPI Inflation (September)/ WPI Manufacturing (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       South Korea Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)

·       China Vehicle Sales (September)/ PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Foreign Minister Foreign Secretary Lammy travels to Beijing and Shanghai, China for meetings.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will visit Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) and then he will travel to Germany. At SHAPE, Rutte will meet with Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), General Christopher Cavoli, and other senior officers. In the afternoon, NATO Secretary General will travel to Wiesbaden, where he will meet the German Minister of Defence, Boris Pistorius, and visit the site of NATO’s Security Assistance and Training – Ukraine (NSATU) command.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East.

·       The EU Environment Council will meet in Luxembourg.  The agenda includes approving the conclusions on preparations for the COP29 Meetings, the UN Convention on Biodiversity, and the Global Plastics Treaty.

·       NATO holds “Steadfast Noon” nuclear preparedness drills in the North Sea.

·       The 10th Annual Berlin Process Summit takes place in Berlin, Germany.  The event brings together representatives from Western Balkans and EU countries.

·       The EU-Kazakhstan Cooperation Council meets in Luxembourg.  The meeting will focus on It will then exchange views on political, economic and trade matters and cooperation (including internal reforms, rule of law and human rights, efforts to address sanction circumvention, cooperation facility, critical raw materials and sustainable connectivity). The delegations will also touch on regional and international developments and cooperation, Global Gateway Team Europe Initiatives and security.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The UK International Investment Summit, hosted by the UK Government, takes place in London. The aim of the Summit is to show “the UK is the best place in the world to do business.”  However, the summit comes two weeks before Prime Minister Keir Starmer releases his new budget, which is expected to call for significantly higher taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals.  On Thursday, P&O Ferries – which was prepared to roll-out a $1.4 billion port expansion in the UK as the showpiece of the conference, announced they were pulling out of the deal after Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Transport Minister Louise Haigh called the firm “rogue operators” and were boycotting using the firm.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Swati Dhingra will speak on a panel at the Reserve Bank of India’s 90th Anniversary High-Level Conference in New Delhi, India.

·       Ireland Construction PMI (September)

·       Romania Industrial Production (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (September)

·       Great Britain BoE Dhingra Speech

·       Poland Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Turkey Auto Production (September)/ Auto Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Nigerian Economic Summit will be held in Abuja. Nigeria’s finance minister Wale Edun and central bank governor Yemi Cardoso will be among the speakers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Tuesday, October 15, 2024

Global

·       The G7 Tech and Digital Ministers meet in Cernobbio, Italy.

·        The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen). In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia followed by consultations

·       The World Trade Organization (WTO) General Council meets in Geneva, Switzerland

·       The OECD’s Forum on Green Finance and Investment 2024 takes place in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives remarks virtually entitled “Career Opportunities and Diversity in Economics” at the Exploring Careers in Economics event hosted by the Federal Reserve.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks and participates in moderated conversation at event hosted by the New York University Stern School of Business in New York.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in moderated conversation on the economic outlook and impact on small business with the Gathering Spot.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI Median (September)/ Wholesale Sales Final (August)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (October)/ Redbook (October/12)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Colombia Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization meets in Islamabad, Pakistan.  The agenda will focus on combating terrorism, enhancing security cooperation among states, and promoting economic collaboration through trade and investment initiatives.

·       Japanese political parties officially kick off campaigning in advance of the October 27 general election. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production Final (August)/ BoJ Adachi Speech

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (September)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Services PMI (September)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Luxembourg.  Ministers will discuss EU-Swiss relations, and the fight against antisemitism.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) will meet in Luxembourg.  They will discuss energy prices, and the state of the energy union and REPowerEU.

·       The Second Accession Conference with Albania will meet in Luxembourg.

·        

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (September)/ ZEW Current Conditions (October)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Claimant Count Change (September)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (September)

·       Hungary Construction Output (August)/ Industrial Production Final (August)

·       France Inflation Rate Final (September)/ IEA Oil Market Report

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate Final (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Bank Lending Survey/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate Final (September)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (August)

·       Serbia Building Permits (August)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q2/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Cyber Defense Forum, organized by the African Telecommunications Union, will take place in Kigali, Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (September)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet for consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). In the afternoon, there will be a TCC meeting on United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

·       The International Energy Agency (IEA) releases its World Energy Outlook 2024 Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/11)/ Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/11)

·       Canada Housing Starts (September)/ Manufacturing Sales Final (August)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong’s Chief Executive John Lee will deliver his 3rd annual policy address.  Lee is expected to focus on the economy after further curbing dissent earlier this year with the imposition of a local national security law known as Article 23.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Seiji Adachi gives a speech to business leaders in Kagawa, Japan.

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q3

·       Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Westpac Leading Index (September)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (August)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Remittances (August)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (October)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (October)

·       India M3 Money Supply (October/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Gulf Cooperation Council Summit is held in Brussels. The summit will be co-chaired by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the Emir of Qatar, H.H. Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, as the rotating President of the GCC.  The summit is an opportunity for the EU to develop a closer partnership with the GCC and its member states (the United Arab Emirates, the Kingdom of Bahrain, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Sultanate of Oman, the State of Qatar, and the State of Kuwait).

·       The 76th Frankfurt Book Fair takes place through October 20 in Frankfurt, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the official dinner of Banka Slovenije in Ljubljana, Slovenia.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a speech at Bocconi University in Milan, Italy.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI Input & Output (September)/ Retail Price Index (September)

·       Italy Inflation Rate Final (September)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech/ European Council

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (September)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (September)

·       Russia PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenya’s Senate will debate whether to dismiss Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua after the National Assembly voted to impeach him. Gachagua has denied all 11 charges against him, which include enriching himself and stirring ethnic hatred.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (August)

Thursday, October 17, 2024

Global

·       G7 Defense Ministers meet in Napoli, Italy. 

·       The BRICS Business Forum and Business Council meets in Moscow, Russia.  Russian President Vladimir Putin will speak at the Forum.

·       IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will give a speech on the outlook for the global economy and policy priorities in advance of the IMF/World Bank meetings the following week in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives welcome remarks before the Fifth Annual Exploring Career Pathways in Economics and Related Fields Conference.

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (August)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (October/12)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October/05)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (October)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (October)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Business Inventories (August)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (October)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/11)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/16)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (August)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/16)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (October)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Tertiary Industry Index (August)

·       Australia Employment Change (September)/ RBA Bulletin/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (September)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council will meet in Brussels.  EU leaders will discuss Ukraine, the Middle East, competitiveness, migration, and general foreign affairs.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU trade ministers through October 18 in Budapest, Hungary. 

·       France and Ukraine will hold a Nuclear Safety Conference in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank meets to discuss and set interest rates.  A press conference will follow.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives speaks via video message on "Supervisory expectations on public cloud usage by European Central Bank (ECB)" at KPMG Cloud Conference 2024 "Profitable Scaling: The Cloud Journey accelerates" in Frankfurt, Germany.  Later, she participates on a panel discussion at the “Financial and Regulatory Outlook Conference 2024: A New Age of Finance” organized by Oliver Wyman in Rome, Italy.

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate Final (September)/ CPI Final (September)/ Core Inflation Rate Final (September)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (September)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (August)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/11)

·       Great Britain BoE Woods Speech

·       Belarus GDP (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

Friday, October 18, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution on Haiti sanctions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden will visit Germany.  He had been scheduled to visit last week but had to cancel due to Hurricane Milton.  The previously scheduled visit was going to be a formal state visit – something no US President has enjoyed in over 40 years.  This visit is now being downgraded to a simple one-day visit.  Additionally, there was going to be a meeting of NATO leaders chaired by Biden at Ramstein Air Base to discuss the situation in Ukraine.  That meeting will not be rescheduled for this visit.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives remarks entitled “Decentralized Finance” at the Nineteenth Annual Vienna Macroeconomics Workshop in Vienna, Austria.

·       USA Building Permits Prel (September)/ Housing Starts (September)/ Housing Starts (September)/Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/18)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (August)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (September)/ Leading Indicator (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The APEC Finance Ministerial Meeting is held in Lima, Peru.

·       ASEAN’s AIPA General Assembly meets in Vientiane.

·       Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will present the annual budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (September)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (October/04)/ Deposit Growth (October/04)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/11)

·       Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Japan Inflation Rate (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October/12)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/12)

·       China House Price Index (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q3/ NBS Press Conference

·       Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Retail Sales (September)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (September)

·       Euro Area Current Account (August)/ Construction Output (August)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (August)/ Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Italy Construction Output (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Serbia Current Account (August)

·       Slovakia Current Account (August)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (July) / Balance of Trade (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The IMF’s executive board will meet for the first review of Ethiopia’s $3.4 billion financing program.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (September)/ Building Permits (August)

·       Ghana PPI (September)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 19, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul, Turkey. The two leaders will discuss Ukraine and the Middle East.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 20, 2024

Global

·       The BRICS 1st Climate Congress will be held in Sochi, Russia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia’s new president, Prabowa Sunianto, will be sworn into office. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (September)

·       China FDI (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds presidential elections and a vote on a constitutional referendum on EU integration. There are substantial fears Russia will seek to disrupt the elections in an attempt to block a yes vote on joining the EU.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraq holds regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The Sad Anniversary of Hamas’ Murderous Assault on Israel,  Biden Travels to Germany and Angola, US Supreme Court Begins its Autumn Term, and Germany’s Foreign Minister to Travel to China

October 6 - 13, 2024

Monday is the one-year anniversary of Hamas' surprise attack on Israel, killing more than 1,200 people and taking hundreds more hostage, changing the security situation in the greater Middle East and leading to war in Gaza and now in Lebanon against Hezbollah.  Markets are now bracing for an Israeli retaliatory strike on Iran after Iran attacked Israel with another rocket attack this past week.  The biggest question is whether Israel will attack Iran's nuclear facilities.  Will be sending updates as the situation progresses this week.

Also this week, President Joe Biden will travel to Germany for a US president's first official state visit in almost four decades.  While in Germany, Biden will chair a meeting of NATO state leaders to discuss the situation in Ukraine and likely address the issue of whether Ukraine will be allowed to use NATO-supplied weapons to proactively attack Russian targets inside Russia – something which Moscow has said would be a dramatic provocation.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has – again – suggested the use of nuclear weapons.  Still, most experts we have spoken to do not believe he will use them and instead ramp up asymmetric attacks on Western targets, impacting market operations (e.g., cyberattacks, cutting critical communication cables, etc.).

Biden will travel from Germany to Angola.  He is following up on a promise he made to African leaders in 2022 that he would visit Africa and seek to shore up relations with the continent.

Elsewhere in the world, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is expected to travel to China this week to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East.  She is also expected to discuss the EU's ongoing deliberations to effectively block Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs) from being imported to China – a hot-button issue between China and the EU.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, Markets are looking at the US September CPI figures released this week after the surprise uptick in employment numbers last week.  Additionally, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting minutes and the Michigan consumer survey for October are out this week.

In Europe, the European Central Bank's meeting minutes are also being released this week.  The UK releases GDP numbers, while Germany releases factory orders, industrial production, and trade figures—all closely watched to see if Germany is beginning to pull out of its economic doldrums.  France will present its 2025 budget this week, which will be important as the fragile political coalition could be impacted. 

This week in Asia, China returns from its week-long Golden Week holiday, and the country's stock exchanges reopen.  It also releases CPOI and PPI figures. Japan releases its Monthly Labor Survey, Economy Watchers Survey, and PPI figures—all important figures to watch as Japan prepares for snap parliamentary elections on October 27. 

Below is what else we are tracking around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil holds local elections, including for Mayor of Sao Paulo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Kazakhstan, a referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant (NPP) will be held. Opinion polling indicates that the most likely scenario will be a vote in favor of constructing the plant. If approved, it will help Kazakhstan's domestic electricity supply challenges and reduce its dependence on both fossil fuels and electricity imports from abroad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       London is bracing for a large protest in support of Palestinians.

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina will hold local elections.

·       In Italy, Matteo Salvini's League holds an annual meeting in Pontida.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Tunisia will hold a presidential election.  President Kais Saied will almost certainly win as opposition parties are boycotting the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Monday, October 7, 2024 

Global

·       Today is the one-year anniversary of Hamas’ assault on Israel, murdering more than 1,200 people and the taking of hundreds of civilian hostages, many of whom have been subsequently murdered.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Supreme Court begins its fall session. They will hear cases dealing with online pornography, transgender rights, and nuclear waste storage.

·       A Colombian Court will hear evidence against ex-president Alvaro Uribe on bribery and fraud charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will speak at the Independent Bankers Association of Texas (IBAT) Annual Convention in San Antonio, Texas.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Bank Holding Company Association (BHCA) Fall Seminar.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in moderated conversation before the Money Marketeers of New York University Inc.

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Colombia Exports (August)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (September)

·       USA Consumer Credit Change (August)/ Used Car Prices (September)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·    Leaders of the ASEAN bloc meet for a three-day summit in the Laotian capital, Vientiane, to discuss economic and security issues. Japan's newly appointed prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, also joins the meeting to talk about East Asia's role in the Southeast Asian club of 10 nations.  More than 1,000 CEOs and senior executives along with world leaders will attend.

. Pakistan is bracing for nationwide protests to mark the one-year anniversary of the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict. The anti-Israel demonstrations are being held by the Muslim-majority nation's major Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami.

·       South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol visits Southeast Asia, stopping in the Philippines and Singapore. In the city-state, he is slated to attend a business forum highlighting economic cooperation and is also expected to speak on issues including Korean unification at a separate lecture.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Japan Coincident Index Prel (August)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (August)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is expected to visit China for meetings.  She is expected to discuss the ongoing EU deliberations on EV tariffs and the situation in Ukraine and the Mideast.

·       The Eurogroup meets in Luxembourg.  They are scheduled to discuss a recovery plan for Europe, the situation in Ukraine, EU energy policy, and the upcoming G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, climate finance, tax policy, and pending legislative proposals dealing with digital finance and capital markets union.

·       The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Council of Foreign Ministers will meet in Moscow. 

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech at the Deutsche Bundesbank's symposium, "Future of payments: trends and innovations in Germany and Europe," in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a keynote at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany Factory Orders (August)

·       Romania Retail Sales (August)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (September)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (September)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       France Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (August)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Euro Area Retail Sales (August)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (September)

·       Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q2/ PPI (August)

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Oil Week conference will kick off in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Tuesday, October 8, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Great Lakes region, followed by consultations.

·       The United Nations Human Rights Council will meet to discuss Honduras and Haiti.

·       The IMF releases its World Economic Outlook.

·       The United Nations International Conference on Victims of Terrorism co-organized by the United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT) and the Kingdom of Spain will take place on 8 and 9 October 2024 at Palacio de Congresos Europa in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain.

·       The 7th Vienna Energy Security Dialogue takes place in Vienna, Austria.

·       BRICS Senior Health officials will meet in Moscow through October 9 in advance of the BRICS Health Ministers this week.

·       The 11th Meeting of Heads of BRICS Intellectual Property Agencies meets in Moscow through October 9.

·       The BRICS Think Tank Network for Finance Conference will be held in Moscow (in person and via video).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Latin American and Caribbean Competition Forum begins in Santa Domingo, The Dominican Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech on “The Discount Window: 1913-2000” at Davidson, College, Davidson, North Carolina.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech on Global Inflation at the European Central Bank Conference on Monetary Policy 2024, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives remarks and participates in moderated conversation on the economic outlook before the Atlanta consular corps luncheon.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks before the 23rd annual Regional & Community Bankers Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Redbook (October/05) / RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (October)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/04)

·       Chile Inflation Rate (September)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Brazil Car Production (September)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (August)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Regional election results are scheduled in India's northern Jammu and Kashmir region. They were the first polls in the former state -- now a federally-governed territory -- in about a decade and came five years after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government scrapped its special autonomy status.

·       China’s stock exchange reopens after a weeklong holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (August)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (August)/ Household Spending (August)/ Overtime Pay (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (September)/ RBA Meeting Minutes/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (September)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  Theya re expected to discuss a recovery plan for Europe, the situation in Ukraine, EU energy policy, and the upcoming G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, climate finance, tax policy, and pending legislative proposals dealing with digital finance and capital markets union.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with Finland’s President, Alexander Stubb, in Brussels.

·       The European Parliament will debate the state of Georgia’s declining democracy, Russian attempts to interfere in Moldova’s presidential elections and the situation in Sudan with EU foreign policy chief Borrell. Resolutions on Georgia and Moldova will be put to a vote on Wednesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair the keynote session at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul will give the keynote speech and participate in a fireside chat at the S&P Global Ratings European Financial Institutions Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (September)

·       Germany Industrial Production (August)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (August)

·       Hungary Budget Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

·       Mozambique Presidential Election

Wednesday, October 9, 2024 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations. 

·       G7 Health Ministers meet through October 11 in Ancona, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook will give remarks on “Entrepreneurship and Innovation” at the Women for Women Summit presented by the College of Charleston School of Business, Charleston, South Carolina.

·       The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s Payments Symposium will be held Chicago. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Richmond Fed President, and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Meister are scheduled to speak.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the Greater Atlanta Home Builders Association monthly meeting.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan speaks on the current state of the economy before the Future of Global Energy Conference presented by Shell USA, Inc. and co-hosted by the Greater Houston Partnership.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks before the Worcester Regional Research Bureau 39th Annual Meeting.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in moderated conversation on monetary policy and the economic outlook at Boise State University.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/04) /Wholesale Inventories (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/04) / / FOMC Minutes released

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (September)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (September)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Leaders of the ASEAN bloc meet for a three-day summit in the Laotian capital, Vientiane, to discuss economic and security issues. Japan's newly appointed prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, also joins the meeting to talk about East Asia's role in the Southeast Asian club of 10 nations.

·       Japan will formally dissolve its lower house ahead of snap elections to be held on Oct. 27, when newly elected Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) look to strengthen their numbers in parliament. Ishiba was elected LDP leader -- and became the country's newest prime minister -- as Fumio Kishida opted not to vie for another term in Japan's top job.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (October)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (August)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (September)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio

·       Kazakhstan PPI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU employment, social policy, and health ministers in Budapest, Hungary through October 10.

• UK onservative MPs start voting to determine the final two candidates vying to become the party’s next leader, after Rishi Sunak announced his resignation in the wake of the party’s heavy general election defeat. The outcome is announced tomorrow. Party members will then vote on these two options

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will participate in a session entitled "The true cost of greening the world" at IUCN Leaders Forum 2024 "Harnessing innovation, enabling conversation" in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (August)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (August)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       France New Car Registrations (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique holds presidential and parliamentary elections. Daniel Chapo is the presidential candidate for the governing Liberation Front of Mozambique (Frelimo) and is highly likely to be elected president.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 10, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to have a private meeting on Somalia, and in the afternoon a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

·       The G7 holds a Ministerial meeting on Industry and Technological Innovation in Rome, Italy.

·       The 4th Meeting of BRICS Deputy Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors takes place through October 11 in Moscow.

·       The 14th Meeting of BRICS Health Ministers will take place through October 11 in Moscow.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden will travel to Germany for the first state visit of a US president in four decades.  He will meet with Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.  Additionally, Biden will lead a summit on the Ukraine War at the US airbase in Ramstein.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in fireside chat,"2025 Economic Outlook and Beyond" before the Virginia Maritime Association 2024 International Trade Symposium.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives remarks and participates in a moderated discussion on the economic outlook and monetary policy before event organized by Binghamton University.

·       USA Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/05) / EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/04)/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/09)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October)/9

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (September)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil Retail Sales (August)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan celebrates its National Day, with new President Lai Ching-te due to mark the occasion with a speech. With tensions with China at very tense levels, comments being made in Taipei will be closely watched.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Bank Lending (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October/05)/ PPI (September)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/05)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (September)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)/ Private House Approvals MoM Final (August)/ Building Permits MoM Final (August)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (September)/ Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Justice and Home Affairs Council ministers will meet in Luxembourg through October 11.  They will discuss fighting child sexual abuse, Schengen, EU law enforcement IT systems, asylum and migration, and internal security.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Ms. Maia Sandu, President of Moldova, regarding joining the EU.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (September)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (September)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (August)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/04)

·       Italy Industrial Production (August)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (August)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (September)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (September)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (August)/ Mining Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (September)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (September)

Friday, October 11, 2024

Global

·       The Nobel Peace Prize winner is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s Community Bankers Symposium will be held in Chicago.  Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak along with Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give remarks on community banking at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Community Bankers Symposium (Virtual).

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives opening remarks before the 18th Annual Community Bankers Symposium, “Community Banking: Navigating a Change Landscape" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in panel before the Federal Home Loan Bank of Dallas Women in Financial Services Conference.

·       Mexico Industrial Production (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey

·       USA PPI (September)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (October)/ Michigan Current Conditions Prel (October)/ WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/11)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Macao will hold a leadership election with just one candidate, former top court president Sam Hou-fai. Only the roughly 400 pro-Beijing members of an election committee are allowed to vote. Sam recently described the development of the casino industry, which powers Macao's economy, as "disorderly" and "barbaric.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (September)/ Food Inflation (September)/ Visitor Arrivals (August)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (October)/ Machine Tool Orders (September)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (July)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/04)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)

·       China Vehicle Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Inflation Rate Final (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (September)

·       Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Construction Output (August)/ GDP (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (September)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (August)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Turkey Current Account (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q3/ Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (September)

·       Angola Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 12, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Spain: National Day, aka Dia de la Hispanidad, commemorating the day in 1492 when Christopher Columbus caught sight of the New World. Includes annual military parade in Madrid.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden travels to Angola for meetings through October 15 with Angolan President João Lourenço to discuss increased trade and climate collaboration.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China PPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ New Yuan Loans (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (September)/ Total Social Financing (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Mexico’s Senate Holds Final Vote on Controversial Judicial Reform Bill; Trump and Harris Debate, and the ECB Makes A Tough Call on Interest Rates

September 9 - 13, 2024

Markets are nervously watching the Mexican government's legislative march toward making the judiciary an elected role rather than one that is appointed, from the Supreme Court on down.  Only one other nation elects its Supreme Court—Bolivia—and it did not turn out very well.  As the Economist reported this week, it's been a complete disaster, leading to a heavily politicized judiciary and several attempted coups.

Both the Canadian and US governments, via their ambassadors in Mexico City, have expressed their strong concerns, and businesses are worried contract law will become the domain of local politicians and drug cartels.  Despite widespread protests in opposition to the measure, the Mexican Senate is expected to ratify the measure this week following the Mexican lower House passing it last week.  The legislation is all part of outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's (AMLO) move to punish the Supreme Court for overturning several of his other highly controversial legislative efforts.  Interestingly, there is a good chance the Supreme Court will rule the legislation itself is unconstitutional, which will set up a very tense political scenario in Mexico City  (for an excellent brief on the situation, our friend Ryan Berg at the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote a superb overview you can read  HERE).

Also this week, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will meet for their first (and perhaps only) presidential debate Tuesday night.  The stakes could not be higher as most recent polling shows the two candidates locked neck-and-neck with two months to go before the elections.

Turning to the global economic radar screen this week, markets are cautiously watching the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday to see if the ECB lowers rates further or holds off as several EU countries – particularly Germany – struggle economically. 

Also this week, US inflation figures for August are released, hopefully further solidifying market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin lowering rates when they meet the following week (September 18).  The debate has gotten a little heated this past week as to whether it would be a cut of 25 basis points or if the Fed would go big and cut 50 basis points.  Also, this week, the University of Michigan consumer survey comes out Friday, and most economists expect it to tick up slightly.

Looking at what else is going on in Europe this week aside from the ECB meeting, the UK releases July GDP figures, which will be important as the UK Parliament begins debating contentious legislation to cut household fuel subsidies this week. 

In Asia, China will have a big week, releasing inflation, trade, and overall economic activity figures—all coming after a recent report showing PMIs sagging.  Also, this week, Japan will release its Economy Watchers Survey and PPI figures. 

Below is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:

Sunday, September 8, 2024 

Global

·       The Paralympics’ closing ceremony is held in Paris.

·       The World Nomad Games begin in Kazakhstan.  Athletes compete in 21 different types of sports including Tug-of-War, Horseback Wrestling, Traditional Archery, Horseback Archery, Kok Boru (where horse riders from two teams compete to tear a goat’s carcass from the ground and break through the opposing team’s defenses and put it in the opponents goal), Mas-Wrestling (where two opponents sit opposite each other, resting their feet on a board between their feet, and pull on a stick. The one who pulls the stick or the other guy or both over the board wins), and more.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for Mexico’s government to present its 2025 budget proposal to Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez begins an official visit to China through September 12.

·       Mozambican President Filipe Jacinto Nyusi will make an official visit to Vietnam through September. 10.  Additionally, Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo will also make a simultaneous visit.

·       Pope Francis will continue his Asia and Oceania tour by visiting Papua New Guinea through September 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 10. In addition to the informal meeting of the ministers, there will be a number of programs offering an insight into Hungarian culture and gastronomy. On the 8th of September ministers and their delegations will be welcomed with a Danube cruise and an opening dinner in the House of Music Hungary.  The meeting will conclude on the September 10 with a kick-off debate on a farmer-focused post 2027 Common Agricultural Policy Towards a competitive, crisis-proof, sustainable, farmer-friendly and knowledge-based future EU agriculture at the Conference Hall of Várkert Bazaar.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 9, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the United Nations peacekeeping operations: Strengthening UN Peacekeeping: Reflections for the Future.

·       The Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency hold board meetings in Vienna, Austria. Board discussions are expected to focus on verification and monitoring in Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015); application of safeguards in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea; nuclear safety, security and safeguards in Ukraine; transfer of the nuclear materials in the context of AUKUS and its safeguards in all aspects under the NPT; application of IAEA safeguards in the Middle East; and the restoration of sovereign equality of Member States in the IAEA.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress returns from August recess.

·       US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with Vietnam’s Defense Minister Giang in Washington, D.C.

·       In Bolivia, widespread protests are expected all week.  Former President Evo Morales will be leading the efforts.

·       Apple holds its annual media event to launch their new products, including a new iteration of the iPhone.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       USA Wholesale Inventories (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Consumer Credit Change (July)/ Used Car Prices (August)/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (July)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea will co-host the Responsible AI in the Military Domain Summit in Seoul.  Co-hosting will be Singapore, the Netherlands, Kenya, and the UK.  Representatives from the militaries and governments of more than 90 countries are expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Current Account (July)/ GDP Growth Annualized Final Q2

·       Australia Building Permits Final (July)/ Private House Approvals Final (July)

·       China Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Former European Central Bank President and Prime Minister of Italy Mario Draghi presents report on Europe's competitiveness with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen.

·       Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr visits Beijing for meetings.  The visit marks the 70th anniversary of bilateral ties between the two countries.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers through September 10 in Budapest, Hungary.

·       European Commission Vice-President Margaritis Schinas will visit Armenia to take part in the launch of a visa liberalization dialogue with the European Union.

·       NATO holds Steadfast Foxtrot 24 military exercises in Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a fireside chat at the Barclays Global Financial Conference in New York.

·       Ireland Construction PMI (August)/ Industrial Production (July)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (July)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Hungary Budget Balance (August)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Hezbollah commemorates slain commander Fuad Shukr 40 days after Israeli strike near Beirut.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (August)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (August)

Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Global

·        The 79th session of the U.N. General Assembly will begin.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

·       National Security Advisors of the BRICS countries will meet in St. Petersburg, Russia to help plan for the BRICS+ Summit in Kazan, Russia in October.

·       OPEC’s Monthly Oil Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will participate in their first presidential debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (August)/ Redbook (September/07)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/06)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (August)

·       Canada BoC Macklem Speech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China's legislative Standing Committee will discuss various draft bills, including ones related to energy and anti-money laundering work, through September 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q2

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (September)/ NAB Business Confidence (August)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (July)/ Motorbike Sales (August)/ Car Sales (August)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (July)

·       Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (August)/ Machine Tool Orders (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK Parliament begins debate over proposed cuts to the winter fuel payments plan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Inflation Rate Final (August)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (July)/ Claimant Count Change (August)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (August)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (August)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (July)

·       Spain Industrial Production (July)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)

·       Italy Industrial Production (July)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (July)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (August)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Jordan holds parliamentary elections.

·       Saudi Arabia hosts the Global Artificial Intelligence Summit  (GAIN) in Riyadh.  There will be more than 400 speakers, 20,000 participants with an expected 25 million online participants.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (August)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (August)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (July)

Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on 1591 Committee (regarding the situation in the Sudan), followed by a briefing on 1591 Committee.  They are expected to vote on whether to renew sanctions.

·       G7 Labor Ministers meet through September 13 in Cagliari, Italy.

·       The International Energy Administration publishes the lates monthly oil report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexico’s Senate is expected to vote on the highly controversial judicial reform bill.  The lower House approved the bill on September 4.  Demonstrations are expected across Mexico City in opposition to the measure.

·       Microsoft will hold a cybersecurity summit in wake of CrowdStrike outage.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/06)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI (August)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (September/06)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (July)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (July)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       SEMI (the international semiconductor industry group) will host the Semicon Exhibition in New Delhi, India through September 13.  The event is expected to draw more than 40,000 visitors and host more than 600 exhibitors.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (July)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Junko Nakagawa will give a speech in Akita, Japan.

·       China Vehicle Sales (August)/ New Yuan Loans (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (August)/ Total Social Financing (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Union President Ursula von der Leyden will announce the new EU Commissioners.

·       There will be a pro-independence march today (Catalan Day) in Catalan, Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a  panel discussion "Supervision and regulation – Followers or pacemakers in the "new world"? - Finding the future role of supervision and regulation" at BaFin Conference "SSM 2034 – an outlook" in Bonn, Germany.

·       Romania Inflation Rate (August)

·       Great Britain GDP (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Construction Output (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (August)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (July)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (July)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Russia Balance of Trade (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Balance of Trade (April)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Balance of Trade (June)

Thursday, September 12, 2024

Global

·        The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

·       The G20 Agriculture Ministers meet in Cuiaba, Brazil.

·       The UN’s One Planet Network Forum 2024, scheduled for September 12-13 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, will focus on reducing inequalities and achieving just transitions through sustainable consumption and production, highlighting the role of the circular economy. The event will bring together stakeholders from diverse sectors to discuss key topics including green skills, sustainable cities, circular economies, and sustainable public procurement.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (July)

·       Canada Building Permits (July)

·       USA Continuing Jobless Claims (August/31)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/07)/ PPI (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/06)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/11)/ WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (August)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/11)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (August)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 11th Xiangshan Forum begins in Beijing and runs through September 14.  The high-level defense and security event brings together military leaders from around the world will attend to discuss the theme “Promoting Peace for a Shared Future.”  More than 30 defense ministers are expected to attend.

·       China’s International Fair for Trade in Services begins in Beijing and runs through September 16.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (August)/ Food Inflation (August)

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura will give a speech in Okayama, Japan.

·       Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q3/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/07)/ PPI (August)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/07)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (June)

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production Q2

·       India Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (August)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The AI Regulation Forum begins in Brussels.  Policymakers from around Europe and the world will gather to discuss how AI should be regulated and how best to comply with existing laws.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Governing Council of the European Central Bank meets on interest rates in Frankfurt, Germany.  ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference after the meeting.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel at the EUROFI Financial Forum in Budapest, Hungary.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (August)/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (August)/ Current Account (July)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (August)

·       Turkey Current Account (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/06)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (August)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q3/ Gold Production (July)/ Mining Production (July)

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Friday, September 13, 2024

Global

·       G20 Digital Ministers meet in Maceio, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. President Joe Biden will hold a meeting at the White House with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade/ Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel (September)/ Michigan Current Conditions Prel (September)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/13)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (July)/ Business Confidence (September)

·       Canada Capacity Utilization Q2/ Wholesale Sales Final (July)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import Prices (August)/ Export Prices (August)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (August)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Final Q2

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (September)/ Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production Final (July)

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/06)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup will meet in Budapest, Hungary.  They will discuss EU macroeconomic developments, get a debrief from the G7, and discuss the situation in Ukraine.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 14. On Friday afternoon, EU ministers and central bank governors would discuss the issue of “sustainable financing of green transition”. The Secretary-General of OECD and the CEO of the Hungarian Government Debt Management Agency would provide presentations on how to bridge financing gap with innovative instruments, how to better mobilize household and other private savings when there is a need to enhance green transition and put public debt on a downward path simultaneously. The Saturday morning session will be devoted to “the effects of demographic changes on public debt sustainability”, where delegations will discuss debt sustainability risks in the context of aging societies and possible lines of action. This issue is a top priority for the Hungarian EU Presidency, as it put at risk the EU’s long-term economic prosperity due to shrinking working-age population and labor shortages.  The discussion will be based on the contribution of the Brussels-based think tank, Bruegel. During the ministerial working lunch the Managing Director of the IMF will outline “the new financing opportunities in supporting low-income countries in their response to global challenges”. 

·       The NATO Military Committee Conference will begin in Prague, Czech Republic and run through September 15. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)

·       Hungary Construction Output (July)/ Industrial Production Final (July)

·       France Inflation Rate Final (August)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (August)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (July)

·       Greece Construction Output Q2

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

·       Poland Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, September 14, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China House Price Index (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ NBS Press Conference

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at the Open Day 2024 of Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany. 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 15, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua all celebrate their respective Independence Days today.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 56th ASEAN Economic Ministers Meet  (AEM) takes place in Vientiane, Laos.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FDI (YTD) (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds presidential elections. Independent candidate Mircea Geoană is estimated to secure the most votes, followed closely by the Prime Minister and leader of the Social Democrat Party (PSD), Marcel Ciolacu.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz begins his first trip to Central Asia with visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.  The trip comes after Scholz hosted the leaders of five central Asian nations in Berlin in 2023 to discuss closer cooperation and to find a way to pry away growing relations these nations are building with Russia and China.  Scholz will take part in the C5+1 meeting in Kazakhstan (the C5 being Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan). 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August) / Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (August)/ M1 Money Supply (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Students in Nigeria will hold nationwide protests over rising fuel prices.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Summer is Over, and A Hectic Autumn Begins: US Elections Heat Up, China Ramps Up Relations with Africa, Germany’s Historic Elections, And What US Job Figures Will Tell Markets

September 1 - 8, 2024

Summer is now over (per the UK Meteorological calendar, which says September 1 is the first day of Autumn, and we are entering a hectic and likely historic autumn.   The US presidential elections loom a little over two months away (the first presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is scheduled for September 10).  

But in the coming week, there will be some very significant events markets will watch closely.  Beijing will be bustling this coming week as China hosts the China-Africa Forum.  Leaders from across Africa will attend the meeting to discuss climate issues, increased trade opportunities, and likely new loans from China to many of the attending countries.  The meeting is all part of Beijing's efforts to expand its influence across the continent while securing critical mineral rights and increased trade opportunities.

But that is not all that is happening in Beijing this week.  UK Foreign Minister David Lammy is expected to visit for meetings with China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, and a possible meeting with President Xi Jinping.  Additionally, Chief US Climate Advisor to President Biden, John Podesta, will visit to discuss cementing new climate goals. At the same time, US Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade, Marisa Lago, will travel to Tianjin, China for meetings with her counterpart on a wide range of issues stressing the US-China relationship.  Both the Podesta and Lago meetings come on the heal of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan's meeting with President Xi and Foreign Minister Wang last week. 

The big event in Europe this week is the state elections held today in Germany (Sunday) – the impact of which is shaking most of the rest of Europe and beyond.  The states of Saxony and Thuringia held votes, and it appears the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party has won in Thuringia – the first time a far-right party has won a state poll since World War II.  The AfD took second place in Saxony – but just by a little more than a percentage point – to the Christian Democrat Party.  Additionally, the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) showed growing strength in both elections, coming in third in both, while the ruling SPD Party came in a very weak fourth place.  

Both the AfD and the BSW strongly oppose military and financial aid to Ukraine, and both have expressed sympathy for Russian President Vladimir Putin's views on the War.  However,  neither party is expected to win enough seats to form a ruling coalition.  And virtually no other party wants to create a coalition with the AfD due to their neo-Nazi leanings.

Also, this week in Europe, former Italian Prime Minister and  European Central Bank Chief Mario Draghi will meet with EU Parliamentary leaders to discuss a forthcoming "landmark" report on EU competitiveness.  Last year, EU President Ursula von der Leyen asked Draghi to conduct the study and recommend how the EU can better compete globally.  The report is expected to make a number of seismic recommendations, primarily aimed at filling the productivity gap between the EU, the US, and China.

Also this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin travels to Mongolia to commemorate the joint Soviet-Mongolian defeat of Japan in World War II.  But the real significance of the trip is that Mongolia is a signatory of the International Criminal Court, which has a warrant out for Putin's arrest since 2023 for war crimes.  This is Putin's first visit to an ICC signatory nation since he directed the invasion of Ukraine.  Mongolia has no intention of honoring that signature or of arresting Putin, a blow to the ICC's stature.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen for the coming week, markets are looking at the US jobs report (non-farm payrolls) being released this coming Friday (will they be softer or more robust than expected, and will that, in turn, lead to a larger rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month?).   Also this week, the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book, and the Bank of Canada meets to decide interest rates.

Moving to Asia, China releases PMIs and the Caixin indexes, while Japan releases closely watched wage figures, and Australia releases second-quarter GDP figures.

In Europe, markets will closely follow the EU Parliament's reception of the Draghi reported above.   Meanwhile, Germany will release closely watched industrial production and trade balance figures as well as factory orders—all critical indicators of whether the German economy is beginning to recover or is still struggling. 

Below are the other key events around the world we are watching closely:

Sunday, September 1, 2024 

Global

·       Slovenia assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of September.

·       UN General-Secretary Antonio Guterres visits Singapore for meetings.  He will then travel to China to participate in the China-Africa Forum.

·       Today is the first day of Autumn per the UK Met Meteorological calendar.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chief US Climate Advisor to President Biden, John Podesta, will travel to China for meetings on how to advance further mutual climate agreements.

·       Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador gives an annual speech on the executive branch’s accomplishments, similar to a State of the Nation address.  President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum will be sworn into office on October 1.   Also, Mexican students are expected to turn out in large numbers to protest the President’s proposed judicial reform effort.  The lower chamber of Congress, sworn into office today, begins debate on the measure today.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia hosts the 2nd Annual Indonesia-Africa Forum in Bali.  Indonesian President Joko Widodo and more than 30 African leaders will meet for three days to discuss how to deepen political and economic ties, build stronger supply chains and healthcare systems.

·       Azerbaijan holds parliamentary elections.

·       Today is Uzbekistan Independence Day, celebrating when the country was able to declare its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

·       Today is Constitution Day in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade AUG

·       Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, state elections will be held in Saxony and Thuringia.  The far-right AfD Party is expected to win a significant share and possibly a majority of the votes.

·       UK Foreign Minister David Lammy will travel to Beijing for meetings to discuss trade and security issues.

·       Czechia will hold regional elections and the election of one-third of the Senate.

·       The GLOBSEC Forum 2024 will be held in Prague, Czechia. 

·       Border Force agents at Heathrow Airport are expected to go on strike through September 3.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 2, 2024

Global

·       Pope Francis begins a four-country Asia visit over twelve days and participates in more than 40 events.  Improving the Catholic-Muslim dialogue and climate change is at his agenda.  He will begin the trip to Indonesia, then travel to Papua New Guinea, East Timor, and Singapore.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden hold a campaign event in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

·       Bolivia is bracing for widespread national protests over the current economic crisis and shortage of dollars and fuel.

·       Today is Labor Day in the US and Canada. Financial markets and banks, as well as the US and Canadian governments, are closed.

·       Today is the 79th Anniversary of “VJ Day” when Japanese Foreign Minister Mamoru Shigemitsu and General Yoshijiro Umezu, on board the American warship the U.S.S. Missouri, signed the Potsdam Declaration, a document of surrender that the Allies had drawn up.

Economic Reports/Events

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Business Confidence (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (July)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will begin a state visit to China that runs through September 5.  Ramaphosa is also going to attend the Forum on China-Africa (Focac).  China is South Africa’s largest trading partner in Africa with more than $34 billion in exports to South Africa in 2023.  South Africa exported more than $12 billion to China in 2023.

·       South Korea will conduct a drill in Incheon on how to respond to “Disease X,” an unknown pathogen when it is detected and how to respond.

·       The BIMSTEC Summit (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) begins in Bangkok, Thailand and runs through September 4.

·       Today is Independence Day in Vietnam, marking the day the country was independent from France in 1945.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (August)/ Building Permits (July)/ Company Gross Profits Q2/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (August)/ Business Inventories Q2/ Private House Approvals Prel (July)/ Commodity Prices (August)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q2/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Business Confidence (August)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• French President Emmanual Macron is expected to meet with former Socialist Party official Bernard Cazeneuve about possibly serving as the next French Prime Minister.  Macron has been struggling to form a new government after recent elections.

• There will be an Informal Meeting of the EU General Affairs Council in Budapest, Hungary, through September 3.  The agenda will address two priorities of the Hungarian Presidency – which are interlinked: boosting the EU’s competitiveness and tackling demographic challenges. A plenary session will examine the possibilities of enhancing competitiveness and the rule of law through better law-making, followed by breakout sessions on the different aspects of competitiveness. Ministers will discuss demographic challenges during their working lunch. 

• The Bled Strategic Forum begins in Bled, Slovenia, and runs through September 3.  EU President Ursula von der Leyen will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Average Weekly Earnings Q2/ Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ GNP Q2

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (June)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (July)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (July)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ New Car Sales (August)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ PPI (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s largest labor union, the Histadrut Labor Federation, has called for a one-day strike to protest the government’s failure to secure a cease-fire in Gaza and the failure to get the hostages back.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (July)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)/ Private Bank Lending (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Food Systems Summit begins in Kigali, Rwanda and runs through September 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (August)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (August)

Tuesday, September 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (July)/ Gross Fixed Investment (June)

·       USA Redbook (August/31)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (August)/ Construction Spending (July)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (August)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (August)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (September)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (August)/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (August)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Mongolia to mark the 85th anniversary of the victory of Soviet and Mongolian forces over Japan in World War II.  This is a significant trip as Mongolia is a signatory to the International Criminal Court (ICC) which has a warrant out for the arrest of Putin for war crimes.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Exports/ Imports/ Terms of Trade Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/03)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (August)

·       Australia Current Account Q2/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn goes on trial for his role in the “Dieselgate” scandal.

·       Russia will host the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok through September 6.  Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and several other Asian leaders ae expected to attend.

·       The 32nd International Defense Industry Exhibition begins in Kielce, Poland.  Approximately 800 defense industry representatives will gather to exhibit the latest in military hardware.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Single Supervisory Mechanism and he European Banking Authority are jointly hosting a conference in Frankfurt looking at supervisory convergence. The conference runs through September 4.  Today, a host of international bank regulators and central bankers are speaking including Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden, European Central Bank Board Members Kerstin Jochnick, Elizabeth McCaul, IMF Deputy Director for Monetary and Capital Markets Marina Moretti, ohn Berrigan, Director General for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union, European Commission, Jennifer Burns, Deputy Director, Division of Supervision & Regulation, Federal Reserve Board, Agustín Carstens, General Manager of the Bank of International Settlements.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (August)

·       Romania PPI (July)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       France Budget Balance (July)

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q2

·       Spain Unemployment Change (August)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (August)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye will travel to China for a state visit through September 6.

·       The World Congress on Industrial Biotechnology will convene in Harare, Zimbabwe.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (August)

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q2

Wednesday, September 4, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Negotiators from the European Union and the Mercosur trade bloc of South American countries will meet in Brasilia to resume free trade negotiations through September 6. 

·       The US will host the fifth meeting of the U.S.-South Korea Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group in Washington, DC.

·       In Bolivia, the Movement Towards Socialism National Congress will meet.  Former President Evo Morales is expected to lay out his strategy to become the next president.

·       New York Fashion Week for the Spring/Summer 2025 season begins.  Will Derek Zoolander be there?  Or Hansel?  He’s so hot right now.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/30)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ JOLTs Job Openings (July)/ Factory Orders (July)/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/30)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (August)

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and press conference/Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia PPI (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Singapore through September 5.

·       The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation begins in Beijing and runs through September 6.  This is the largest diplomatic event China has held in recent years.  African leaders normally sign a number of large loan agreements with Beijing at this event, but this year may be different as China’s economy struggles and the government is expected to cut back the size of loans.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (August)/ Judo Bank Services/ Composite PMI Final (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q2/ GDP Chain Price Index Q2/ GDP Final Consumption Q2/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (August)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services/ Composite PMI Final (August)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       China Caixin Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       India HSBC Services/ Composite PMI Final (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August/23)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Italian Prime Minister and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will give an initial presentation of his landmark report on EU competitiveness to senior members of the various political groups of the European Parliament.  The report is likely to propose “a radical change” for EU’s economy. More than 400 pages long, the report looks at the energy, defense, and other major sectors and how they can become more globally competitive.  A formal presentation of the report will take place in the latter half of September.

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer takes part in first Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) following the end of the summer recess.  The UK Parliament came back into session on Monday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give a  keynote speech at the Joint European Banking Authority & European Central Bank international conference "Addressing supervisory challenges through enhanced cooperation" in Frankfurt.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Russia S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Spain HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       France HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Germany HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)/ PPI (July)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (July)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Composite PMI Final (August)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (September)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (August)/ Auto Production & Sales (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey. The two leaders are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza and expansion of trade.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (August)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The World Conference on Soil, Water, Energy and Air will take place in Victoria, Seychelles.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (August)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (August)/ Business Confidence Q3

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (August)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (August)

Thursday, September 5, 202 

Global

·       In Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the Fifth Global Conference on Strengthening Synergies between the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development: Building a Just World and a Sustainable Planet will be held through September 6. The Conference is being co-convened by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat, and hosted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Brazil. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The tax fraud trial of Hunter Biden, President Biden’s son, begins in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (August)/ ADP Employment Change (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/31)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (August)/ ISM Services PMI (August)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/30)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/04)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q2/ S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia Exports (July)

·       Brazil Car Production (August)/ New Car Registrations (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Perth, Australia, Japan and Australia hold a 2-plus-2 defense and foreign ministers’ meetings.  Japan's Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Defense Minister Minoru Kihara will meet with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defense Minister Richard Marles in the first 2-plus-2 meeting since late 2022 in Tokyo. The primary focus of the meetings is China’s growing military expansion in the Indo-Pacific.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Hajime Takata gives a speech to local business leaders in in Ishikawa, Japan/ Japan Average Cash Earnings (July)/ Overtime Pay (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August/31)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/31)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (August)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock will give a speech at the Anika Foundation in Sydney, Australia/Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (August)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (July)

·       Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU ministers responsible for cohesion policy in Budapest, Hungary through September 6.  The agenda, according to the Hungarian government, which is chairing the EU through December, is to hold a high-level debate on the Policy's role in promoting competitiveness and employment, and effectively addressing demographic challenges. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen will participate in a fireside chat at Handelsblatt Banking Summit 2024 "Navigating the Storm: Banking Amid Interest Rate Changes, Real Estate Crises, and Geopolitical Uncertainty” in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Germany Factory Orders (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       Romania Retail Sales (July)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (August)/ New Car Registrations (July)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (August)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (August)

·       Serbia PPI (August)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/30)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan PPI (July)

·       Israel Business Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account Q2

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, September 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech at the University of Notre Dame’s Department of Economics.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak before the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics organized by the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (August)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (August)/ Auto Production (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (August)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/06)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to travel to Seoul, South Korea for meetings with President Yook Suk Yeol.   It will be one of Kishada’s last foreign trips before he steps down from office.  Bilateral relations between Japan and South Korea have warmed up considerably since the resolution this past March between the two countries over how to compensate Koreans who were forced to labor for Japanese occupation forces during World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (July)

·       Japan Household Spending (July)/ Coincident Index Prel (July)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (July)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Australia Home Loans (July)/ Investment Lending for Homes (July)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (August/23)/ Deposit Growth (August/23)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/30)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ukraine Defense Contact Group will meet at Ramstein Airbase in Ramstein, Germany.  Approximately 50 countries will be represented at the meeting chaired by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.  The focus of the meeting will be to further coordinate aid as well as find ways to accelerate military aid to Ukraine.

·       The 50th European House-Ambrosetti Conference takes place through September 7 in Milan, Italy.  Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech at the ESCB Legal Conference 2024 (a virtual event).

·       France Non-Farm Payrolls Q2/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q2

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (August)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (August)

·       Hungary Industrial Production Prel (July)/ Budget Balance (August)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (July)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Italy Retail Sales (July)

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate 3rd Est Q2/ Employment Change Final Q2

·       Greece Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Ireland Construction Output Q2

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Swaziland Independence Day, marking the day the country was granted independence from the UK in 1968.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Saturday, September 7, 2024

Global

·       The 13th BRICS Trade Union Forum will occur in Sochi, Russia.  The meeting brings together the leaders of the major trade unions of the respective BRIC member nations to better coordinate amongst themselves on worker-related issues.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade Marisa Lago will travel to Tianjin, China, for a meeting with China’s Vice Minister Wang Shouwen.  They are expected to discuss a wide range of topics, including US tariffs on China. The meeting will follow the recent visit of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will visit Beijing and Shanghai for meetings through September 12.  Sanchez, who has been plagued with corruption charges against him and his wife, is expected to discuss ongoing trade disputes between the EU and China, which have hit Spain in the areas of pork products, dairy, and brandy exports.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Algeria holds presidential elections. Incumbent President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, who is not popular among the electorate, faces two weak challengers and is expected to win in a landslide.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 8, 2024

Global

• The Paralympics’ closing ceremony is held in Paris.

• The World Nomad Games begin in Kazakhstan.  Athletes compete in 21 different types of sports, including Tug-of-War, Horseback Wrestling, Traditional Archery, Horseback Archery, Kok Boru (where horse riders from two teams compete to tear a goat’s carcass from the ground and break through the opposing team’s defenses and put it in the opponents goal), Mas-Wrestling (where two opponents sit opposite each other, resting their feet on a board between their feet, and pull on a stick. The one who pulls the stick or the other guy or both over the board wins), and more.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for Mexico’s government to present its 2025 budget proposal to Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 10. In addition to the informal meeting of the ministers, there will be a number of programs offering an insight into Hungarian culture and gastronomy. On the 8th of September ministers and their delegations will be welcomed with a Danube cruise and an opening dinner in the House of Music Hungary.  The meeting will conclude on the September 10 with a kick-off debate on a farmer-focused post 2027 Common Agricultural Policy Towards a competitive, crisis-proof, sustainable, farmer-friendly and knowledge-based future EU agriculture at the Conference Hall of Várkert Bazaar.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

The Ongoing Crisis in Venezuela, Demographic Challenges Globally, and How is the Inflation Reduction Act Working Out?

August 23 - 25, 2024

Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week.  We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

The Crisis in Venezuela

• A Question of Staying Power  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  In response to protests against its brazen election theft, the Maduro regime in Venezuela has unleashed a wave of violent repression. While the exact numbers vary, credible human rights organizations have logged nearly 2,000 arrests, some even of minors and young children, and more than two dozen people killed. Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro bragged that more than 2,200 arrests had been made and that prisons repurposed to house new political prisoners would feature “reeducation” and “hard labor” camps.  Meanwhile, reports from low-income barrios around Caracas convey that regime intelligence services have marked homes of protestors with a black “X.” Rather than hiding repression, the regime has launched a public campaign called Operación Tun Tun (Operation Knock Knock) meant to instill maximum fear by arbitrarily knocking on doors. The regime has filmed security forces breaking into protestors’ homes and arresting them and openly publicized videos of arbitrary arrests—one of them set to the popular Christmas song “Carol of The Bells.”

• Venezuela: Possible Paths Forward  Americas Quarterly Podcast

  Since the election on July 28, Nicolás Maduro has unleashed a wave of repression not seen in Venezuela before. The question on everyone’s mind is, what now? Will Venezuela move further down the path of a dictatorship, or is there some chance of a negotiated solution that might lead to a democratic transition? In this episode, Roberto Patiño, a civil society leader and a member of one of the opposition parties, discusses the opposition’s strategies, evaluates the positions taken by Brazil, Colombia, the U.S., and Mexico, and describes what he sees as cracks in the Maduro regime.

  U.S. Elections 2024

• Beliefs About Political News in the Run-up to an Election  Charles Angelucci, Michel Gutman, and Andreas Prat/National Bureau of Economic Research

  The closer we get to the election, the more we hear about “fake news” and a lack of neutrality in the media.  From where we sit, there is definitely something to it – the question we have is how much of is intentionally slanted due to reporters’ personal political viewpoints filtering into the story or just poor reporting. But what about the reader’s role?  In this new study, three economists developed a model to look at the influence of elections on the formation of “partisan-driven information universes.”  The study shows a partisan impact on the news during election periods.  Outside of the election season, an individual is 4 percent more likely to choose a true story if it favors their party; in the days prior to the election?  This increases to 11 percent.

Global Demographic Trends

• Europe’s Demographic Winter and the New EU fiscal Rules VOX EU/Center for Economic Policy Research

  The EU recently settled on a revision of its fiscal rules replacing a system increasingly seen as “one size fits all” when it came to debt sustainability analysis for EU members.  While this might make a lot of sense, this paper argues that many EU member states are facing a sustained demographic decline now and in the years to come, a careful assessment of the uncertainty surrounding population projections is needed.

• Korea faces income losses within half a century without more labor migration  Peterson Institute for International Economics

  South Korea is facing a social and economic crisis caused by its rapidly aging population.   Today, South Korea is the second oldest nation in the world with 40 percent of its population being 65 years old or older.  For years, South Korea had highly restrictive immigration policies.  But in the early 2000’s the country began opening the door to immigration to offset the loss of workers.  But it is not enough as the below chart indicates, as Korean income losses per citizen due to aging is expected to decline by 10 percent within 18 years. The only way to avoid this projection (that only get worse in outlying years) to ramp immigration – a true social and cultural challenge to this ancient society.   And it should be noted: Italy, Germany, Spain, and China are not far behind South Korea in facing this demographic catastrophe.

 Geoeconomics and Industrial Policy 

• “Shadow Reserves”: China’s Key to Parry U.S. Financial Sanctions   War on the Rocks

  As the U.S. and China continue to spar over financial and trade issues, Beijing has found a way to insulate their strategic trade away from dollar-based sanctions.  China’s central bank has steadily shed its official U.S. dollar reserve holdings – which means, if China were to decide to invade or blockade Taiwan, the U.S.’ ability to impose financial sanctions on China will be diminished.  But it is not complete – far from it: only a third of China’s goods trade are settled in renminbi.

• Attracting CHIPS Investment: Industry Recommendations for Policymakers  Semiconductor Industry Association

  Chips are integral to the 21st century economy, from electric vehicles, AI data centers, and medical technologies to mobile devices, energy grids, and streaming platforms. Historically, semiconductor supply chain production activities have concentrated in a handful of regions. But as global chips demand increases, and the industry responds to geopolitical uncertainty and other disruptions, companies are diversifying their global investment footprint to improve supply chain resilience.  In our new SIA-BCG report, Attracting Chips Investment: Industry Recommendations for Policymakers, we recommend policy actions governments can undertake to better attract investment based on the following five key factors that semiconductor companies evaluate when making investment decisions.

• Clean Investment Monitor: Tallying the Two-year Impact of the inflation Reduction Act  Rhodium Group/MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research

  As the United States approaches the two-year anniversary of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), this report provides a comprehensive analysis of actual investments in clean technologies and infrastructure since its enactment.  From the second half of 2022 through the first half of this year, actual business and consumer investment totaled $493 billion, a 71% increase from the two-year period preceding the legislation. This report includes a detailed state-level breakdown of clean investment in the post-IRA period.

The Global Week Ahead

Could There Finally Be A Ceasefire in Gaza?  Indian Prime Minister Modi Makes a Historic Visit to Ukraine, and Central Bankers Gather in Jackson Hole

August 18 - 25, 2024

The situation in the Middle East will continue to dominate the geopolitical outlook this week as negotiations seeking a ceasefire in Gaza, and the release of hostages held by Hamas appear to have gotten closer to an agreement.  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel to the region again this week – his ninth trip there this year – hoping to clinch a deal.  But ongoing fighting between Hezbollah forces and Israeli forces intensified over the weekend and risks escalating into a far larger regional fight.

Meanwhile,  the Democratic National Convention begins in Chicago.  As many as 50,000 people are expected to participate.  But the party nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris may be marred by widespread protests by activists opposed to the Biden Administration’s supportive policy for Israel in Gaza.

This coming week will mark a  historic first: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit Kyiv, Ukraine to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.  Modi is seeking to play a role in helping to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, an effort that has been publicly encouraged by the US.  Modi will also visit Poland, the first time an Indian Prime Minister has visited the nation in 40 years.

Another important diplomatic trip this week is Vietnam’s new leader, To Lam, making his first official visit to China and his first overseas visit as President.  He will meet with President Xi Jinping, where the two leaders will likely finalize an important railroad deal and discuss ongoing tensions between the two nations over disputed territory in the South China Sea.  Vietnam has been stepping up its international diplomatic and trade efforts this year, upgrading ties with the US, Japan, and India.  But Vietnam also hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin in June, raising eyebrows in Tokyo, Washington, and Brussels.

Turning to the global markets and major economic events this coming week, markets will be laser-focused on Jackson Hole, Wyoming where the annual Kansas City Federal Reserve Conference will feature most of the leading international central bank chiefs.  Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will give a much-anticipated speech Friday and markets will be hoping for further indications of interest rate cuts being made at the next Federal Open Markets Committee meeting in September.

Also this week, both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will be releasing minutes from their last interest rate meetings.   The ECB will also be releasing their consumer expectations survey on Friday. 

This week’s other important releases this week include PPIs out of Germany, the UK, and Eurozone,  while Japan releases CPI and July trade balance figures.  Also of note in Japan this week, the Japanese Parliament (Diet) will hold a joint Lower House and Upper House Financial Affairs Committee hearing featuring Bank of Japan Governor Kajuo Ueda and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki to discuss the Bank’s rate increase in July and what it might mean for Japan’s economy longer term.

Below is what else we are watching closely this coming week:

Sunday, August 18, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam’s new President and Communist Party Chief To Lam will visit China for meetings with President Xi Jinping.  During the three-day visit, Lam is expected seek Xi’s support for his country’s rial projects as well as discuss ongoing disputes with China over the South China Sea.

·       In Singapore, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong delivers the annual National Day Rally

speech, his inaugural address after taking office on May 15. He is Singapore’s fourth prime

minister and his becoming Prime Minister is the nation’s first leadership change in 20 years.  He is expected to focus on plans to expand the social safety net in the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Azerbaijan for talks with President Ilham Aliyev on how to improve the two nation’s strategic relationship.   The two leaders are also expected to discuss the fragile settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan following a 44-day war in 2020. But the major issue for Putin is to secure the Russian gas supplies to Azerbaijan. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 44th Ordinary Summit of the Southern African Development Community Heads of State and Government meets in in Harare, Zimbabwe.  The theme of the conference is “Promoting Innovation to unlock opportunities for sustained economic growth and development towards an Industrialised SADC”.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 19, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).   

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will return to the Middle East in a bid to finalize a cease-fire agreement in Gaza and the release of hostages held by Hamas.  Blinken will mee with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then may travel to Cairo, Egypt and Doha, Qatar in a bid to finalize the deal.

·       The US Democratic Party Presidential Convention begins in Chicago, Illinois and runs through August 22.

·       Today is San Martin Day in Argentina, a national holiday.  Markets are closed.  But Unionized pilots flying for Aerolineas Argentinas are expected to strike and stage demonstrations at Argentina's commercial airports through Aug. 30. 

·       The US Congress continues to be on August recess.  They return to work September 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives welcoming remarks at the 2024 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, Payments, and Finance which is hosted by the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C.

·       Chile Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       USA Fed Waller Speech

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan and India will hold “2+2” talks between Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, and Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh in New Delhi.  The two countries are looking to enhance mutual security ties and defense equipment sharing.

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will visit India for talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  This is the first time Modi and Anwar have met since Anwar became prime minister.  The two are expected to sign a number of trade agreements.

·       The US and South Korea military forces will be conducting training event code-named Ulchi Freedom Shield in South Korea through August 29.  Additionally, South Korean civilians will hold evacuation drills through August 22.

·       Today is Revolution Commemoration Day in Vietnam, marking the day in 1945 when the revolution led by Ho Chi Minh ended Japanese occupation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (July)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (June)

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Deutsche Bundesbank, Foundations of Law and Finance, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management and CEPR are co-sponsoring a conference on Regulating Financial Markets in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Spain Balance of Trade (June)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Turkey Auto Production (July)/ Auto Sales (July)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (June)/ M2 Money Supply (July)/ Total Credit Growth (June)/ Total Credit Growth (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Kenya Aviation Workers Union have cancelled their plans to begin strike action to denounce an investment by India's Adani Airport Holdings that would see the group manage the operations of Nairobi's Jomo Kenyatta International Airport. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Ghana PPI (July)

Tuesday, August 20, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), as well as Libya sanctions. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Both Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign and former President Donald Trump’s campaign are expected to file financial disclosures with the Federal Election Commission revealing how much money the respective campaigns raised in July.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr participates in a discussion on cybersecurity a the Joint Financial and Banking Information Infrastructure Committee-Financial Services Sector Coordinating Council Meeting being held in Washington, D.C.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in fireside chat before hybrid "Innovating for Inclusion" forum at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Mexico Retail Sales (June)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI Median (July)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (July)

·       USA Redbook (August/17/API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/16)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The date for the ruling Japanese LDP Leadership elections will be finalized today. (they will be sometime this fall) and will determine who the next prime minister will be.  This comes after current Prime Minister Kishida's announced that he would not run for re-election in September. 

·       Ministers from Japan and its Asian neighbors gather for an Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC) meeting in Jakarta. AZEC was created by Japan in 2022 to encourage eleven partner countries to further advance carbon neutrality.  The attending nations will discuss ways to develop and spread a range of decarbonization technologies in the energy and transportation sectors. The ministerial meeting is set to be attended by Japan, Australia and members of the 10-nation ASEAN, except Myanmar.

·       The Taiwanese Air Force and Navy will hold live-fire exercises.  The event is expected to disrupt some fishing and commercial shipping off the island’s southeastern coast.

·       The 9th Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD 9) begins in Tokyo, Japan and runs through August 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (August)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August/20)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & Loan Prime Rate 5Y (August)

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

·       Taiwan Export Orders (July)/ Current Account Q2

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Union President Ursula von der Leyden delivers a speech at the groundbreaking ceremony for the European Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (ESMC) semiconductor plant – being built by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) in Dresden, Germany.   This is TSMC’s first plant in Europe and a critical component of its plant to build a global production footprint.  The plant, which is expected to cost $10.8 billion to construct, is expected to open in late 2027.  It will further solidify Dresden as a major semiconductor center as the new plant will sit next to Bosch’s semiconductor plant and close to Infineon’s plant (which is currently undergoing a $5 billion expansion).

· Today is National Day in Hungary as well as St. Stephen's Day (the patron saint of Hungary), a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (July)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (July)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)

·       Euro Area Current Account (June)/ Inflation Rate Final (July)/ Construction Output (June)/ CPI Final (July)/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q2

·       Italy Current Account (June)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (August)/ Overnight Lending Rate (August)/ Central Government Debt (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (July)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2nd Namibia Oil and Gas Conference begins in Windhoek, Namibia.  The country has become an oil exploration hotspot after large discoveries in recent years with an estimated 11 billion barrels of light oil and 2.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, August 21, 2024

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres begins series of visits in the Pacific Islands and Asia. First, he will go to Samoa (August 21 – 23) where he will meet with Prime Minister Fiamē Naomi Mataʻafa. His visit will focus on the impacts of climate change in the country. He will then go to New Zealand (August 23- 24), where he will meet with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. From there, he will go to Tonga from (August 24-27) where he will participate in the Pacific Islands Forum. He is expected to meet with the Prime Minister of Tonga, Mr. Siaosi 'Ofakivahafolau Sovaleni, as well as other leaders attending the Forum. The Secretary-General will then go to Timor-Leste (August 28 -31).  Guterres will then head to Singapore (September 1-2) where he will meet with President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Prime Minister Wong Lawrence. From there he will head to China (September 2 – 5), where he will meet with President Xi Jinping and participate in the 2024 Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Peacebuilding and sustaining peace: The New Agenda for Peace – Addressing global, regional and national aspects of conflict prevention. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (August/16)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/16)/ FOMC Minutes/

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (July)/ PPI (July)/ Raw Materials Prices (July)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (June)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan hosts the Ketagalan Security Forum.  Sponsored by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Forum.  Former Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihdo Noa, former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, and a number of other prominent political figures from around the world will also attend and speak.

·       The World Robot Conference begins in Beijing, China and runs through August 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (August)/ PPI (July)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (July)

·       Indonesia Property Price Index Q2/ Loan Growth (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (August)/ Lending Facility Rate (August)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (July)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       India M3 Money Supply (August/09)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Poland, the first time an Indian Prime Minister has visited in 40 years.  Modi is then expected (but still to be confirmed) to travel on August 23 to Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky which would be the first time an Indian Prime Minister has visited the country.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits Moldova for talks on mutual security matters and Moldova’s efforts to gain membership to the EU.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta will give a speech at the Rimini Meeting on Italian debt sustainability and economic development.

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (July)

·       Greece Current Account (June)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (July)/ Employment Growth (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ PPI (July)

·       Slovenia PPI (July)

·       Russia PPI (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (June)/ Inflation Expectations (August)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (July)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (July)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ Total Credit (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (July)

Thursday, August 22, 2024

Global

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts the Jackson Hole Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.   This year’s theme is “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.” 

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Teamsters Union has set today as the deadline to reach a new labor agreement with the Canadian National Railway and Pacific Kansas City Rail or go on strike, which would cripple shipping in Canada.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Economic Activity (June)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (August)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/17)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)/ Existing Home Sales (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/16)/ Kansas Fed Composite/ Manufacturing Index (August)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/21)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/21)/ Jackson Hole Symposium

·       Argentina Retail Sales (June)

·       Paraguay PPI (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Judo Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August/17)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/17)/ Jibun Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Current Account Q2

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (July)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The ECB releases Monetary Policy Meeting minutes

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/16)

·       France HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)

·       Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (August)

·       Poland Retail Sales (July)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (August)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (July)

·       Slovakia Current Account (June)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (July)/ Composite Economic Index (July)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)/ Private Bank Lending (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, August 23, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentine President Javier Milei will attend the Mexican chapter of the CPAP Conservative Political Action Conference in Mexico City.  Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has refused to meet with Milei because he is Milei is attending the conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will give a speech on the Economic Outlook at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Jackson Hole Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       Canada Retail Sales (June)/ Manufacturing Sales Prel (July)

·       Chile PPI (July)

·       New Home Sales (July)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/23)/ Building Permits Final (July)/ Jackson Hole Symposium

·       Mexico Current Account Q2

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (July)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·      The Japanese Committee on Financial Affairs of the House of Representatives (Lower House) and the Committee on Financial Affairs of the House of Councilors (Upper House) meet with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki to hear about the Bank’s  July rate hike and expected financial market trends.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q2

·       Japan Inflation Rate (July)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (July)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Index (June)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (July)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (August/09)/ Deposit Growth (August/09)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/16)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanual Macron begins consultations with political leaders about forming a new government and the selection of a new prime minister.  The next parliamentary session begins October 1,  but forming a new government is going to be difficult as the margins between the various political parties is slim. Outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal is serving as a caretaker until a new government is formed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (August)/ CBI Distributive Trades (August)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (July)

·       France Business Confidence (August)/ Business Climate Indicator (August)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (July)

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2

Saturday, August 24, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Ukraine Independence Day, making the day in 1991 when it gained its freedom from the Soviet Union.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a panel session "Reassessing the effectiveness and transmission of monetary policy" at Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Policy Symposium 2024 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 25, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Uruguay Independence Day, marking the day in 1828 when the country gained its independence from Portugal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Day of Songun, a national holiday in North Korea.  The day celebrates the start of the military-first rule in the nation under the leadership of Kim Jong-Il in 1948.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in panel discussion at The Rimini Meeting 2024 "Se non siamo alla ricerca dell'essenziale, allora cosa cerchiamo?" in Rimini, Italy.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

August 16 - 18, 2024

Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week.  We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Hacking, Deep Fakes, and the 2024 U.S. Elections

• 100 Days Until Election 2024   U.S. Director of National Intelligence

  Already seeing the foreign governments attempting to meddle in the upcoming U.S. elections, The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) issued this unclassified memo explaining how the U.S. intelligence community is monitoring foreign actors trying to influence and disrupt the upcoming elections.  Well worth the read to understand the threat at hand.

• How Foreign Governments Sway Voters with Online Manipulation   Scientific American

  2024 is the year of elections, with more than half the world’s population heading to the polls to vote. More than 100 countries including India, Taiwan, the UK, France, Russia, Venezuela, and soon, the United States, have held are holding national elections.  Most of the elections were free and fair, while others – such as Russia and Venezuela – were rigged, and opposition candidates either arrested or “disappeared.”  But one constant in most of these elections has emerged: Foreign government efforts to interfere and either discourage voters or mislead them with disinformation.  Scientific American Magazine did a deep dive into how malign foreign governments use social media and other mediums to achieve their goals.
  

• Iran Steps into U.S. Election 2024 with Cyber-Enabled Influence Operations Campaign  Microsoft On the Issues

  Two weeks ago, news broke that the Trump campaign had been hacked, and the most likely culprit is Iran.  How is this happening?  In a new report from Microsoft details how foreign countries are seeking to negatively influence the 2024 US election.  As the report details, these malign forces started off slowly in 2024 but have steadily picked up the pace over the last six months. Russia was primarily the initial operator, but more recently, Iran has picked up the pace.  China is not far behind.

Source: Microsoft On the Issues

• Iran using covert influence campaigns to undermine Trump's candidacy, U.S. intelligence says     CNN

  CNN reports how Iran is using covert social media activity and related influence operations in an effort to undercut the candidacy of former President Donald Trump, a US intelligence official said Monday in an updated assessment of threats to the November election.

China

• China’s Imaginary Trade Data   Brad Setser/Council on Foreign Relations “Follow the Money” Blog

  Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow Brad Setser took a deep dive into the IMF’s latest assessment of China.  In the appendix, he found something interesting: China has a new way of calculating its good trade balance - and that calculation is deeply misleading and helps to explain the apparent fall in the current account surplus.  For example, Setser believes the new method understates the current account surplus by $300 billion as of the second quarter of 2024 and that the actual surplus is closer to $700 billion.
  

• China’s Great Wall of Villages   The New York Times

  President Xi calls them “border guardians.”  In this superb interactive report using satellite imagery, the New York Times reports on how the government built twelve new villages in frontier areas claimed by other countries in recent years, the New York Times reported based on satellite images. They are among more than fifty new villages in frontier areas, and while civilian in nature, they provide access points for China’s military. A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington said regarding border issues, Beijing seeks “fair and reasonable solutions” through peaceful consultation.

Source: New York Times

• Marijuana and Mexican cartels: Inside the stunning rise of Chinese money launderers  NBC News

  Over the past decade, Chinese organized crime groups in the U.S. quietly became the dominant money launderers for Mexican cartels. Then they used the profits to take over the illicit marijuana trade.  Experts worry that the organizations that now dominate money laundering worldwide pose a potential national security threat to the U.S.

Geoeconomics

• Don’t Believe the AI Hype   Daron Acemoglu/Project Syndicate

  Acemoglu, an MIT Economics Professor, writes that if you listen to tech industry leaders, business-sector forecasters, and much of the media, you may believe that recent advances in generative AI will soon bring extraordinary productivity benefits, revolutionizing life as we know it. Yet neither economic theory nor the data support such exuberant forecasts.
  

• Has the Recession Started?    Pascal Michaillat (UC Santa Cruz) and Emmanuel Saez (UC Berkeley)

  Abstract: To answer this question, we develop a new Sahm-type recession indicator that combines vacancy and unemployment data. The indicator is the minimum of the Sahm indicator -  the difference between the 3-month trailing average of the unemployment rate and its minimum over the past 12 months—and a similar indicator constructed with the vacancy rate—the difference between the 3-month trailing average of the vacancy rate and its maximum over the past 12 months. We then propose a two-sided recession rule: When our indicator reaches 0.3pp, a recession may have started; when the indicator reaches 0.8pp, a recession has started for sure. This new rule is triggered earlier than the Sahm rule: on average, it detects recessions 1.4 months after they have started, while the Sahm rule detects them 2.6 months after their start. The new rule also has a better historical track record: it perfectly identifies all recessions since 1930, while the Sahm rule breaks down before 1960. With July 2024 data, our indicator is at 0.5pp, so the probability that the US economy is now in recession is 40%. In fact, the recession may have started as early as March 2024.