The Global Week Ahead

The IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings Take Center Stage, Vice President Vance Visits India,  Bilateral Trade Negotiations Continue in Washington, and the G7 and G20 Meet on the Sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings

April 20 - 27, 2025

A good portion of the world hopefully enjoyed a peaceful Easter holiday today, and many are taking the week for spring vacation.  However, in Washington, Easter weekend was the quiet before the economic storm as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund  (WB/IMF) are holding their annual Spring meetings.   The nation’s capital will be filled with finance ministers and central bankers from around the world (good luck getting restaurant reservations and avoiding driving downtown – the traffic jams during WB/IMF weeks are epic).  

But unlike most World Bank/IMF meetings, a good number of trade ministers will also be in Washington this week, seeking to work out bilateral trade deals with the US.  We are aware of meetings between US officials and representatives of Thailand, India, and Malaysia, and suspect more meetings are being arranged as we write this note.

As tariff negotiations ramp up, we will be watching for the WB/IMF annual economic report on Tuesday.  This report will likely help set the tone for the week and likely point to their expectation of significant economic disruption as a result of the Trump tariffs.  Both the G7 and G20 will be meeting on the sidelines of the WB/IMF meetings, and tariffs will be the paramount issue of discussion.

Also this week, US Vice President J.D. Vance will visit India for four days starting Monday.  Vance will meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday, and trade, mutual defense, and security issues will be on the agenda.  Modi will then travel to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday for bilateral meetings with Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud to discuss both trade and a number of other issues of interest to India, including the US-Iran nuclear talks, the Ukraine peace talks, and relations with China.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, the WB/IMF meetings dominate the week.  But there are several important economic reports worth watching.  Global PMIs will be out on Wednesday, giving markets a slightly clearer sense of how tariffs might be disrupting markets.

In the US, markets are watching for the Beige Book release along with durable goods orders and housing market data.  In Asia, aside from Japan’s CPI numbers, China will announce the 1-year and 5-year loan rates.  In Europe, the ifo Survey in Germany and the consumer confidence reports for the Eurozone and the UK are out this week.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, April 20, 2025

Global

·       Today is Easter Sunday in the Western Christian world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NASA’s Lucy mission, a robotic spacecraft, is expected to pass the main belt asteroid 52246 Donaldjohanson on its way to the Trojan asteroids that share Jupiter’s orbit.

·        

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 21, 2025

Global

·       Financial markets in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy are closed for the Easter Monday holiday.

·       The World Bank/IMF Spring meetings begin in Washington, D.C.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir will begin his visit to the United States with stops in Miami, New York, and Washington, D.C. 

·       Thailand will send a trade delegation to Washington to discuss tariffs.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee is interviewed on CNBC.

·       USA CB Leading Index (March)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (February)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President JD Vance will begin a four-day visit to India, which will include talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Their discussions are likely to focus on a proposed bilateral trade pact and American "reciprocal" tariffs, among other issues of mutual interest. Accompanied by his wife Usha, the first Indian American and Hindu second lady of the United States, and their children, Vance will visit the tourist cities of Agra and Jaipur as well as the capital, New Delhi.

· The Annual Philippine-US military exercises (Balikatan 2025) begin in the Philippines.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In London, Gatwick airport operations staff continue their industrial action, likely to increase disruption for travelers returning from Easter breaks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       In Egypt, the Sham Ennesim festival is celebrated marking the start of spring.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4/ M1 Money Supply (March)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Current Account Q4

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (February)

Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Global

·       The IMF/World Economic presents its joint Economic Outlook report.

·       IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will meet in Washington, D.C.

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile's President Gabriel Boric will make a state visit to Brazil..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give speech entitled “Economic Mobility and the Dual Mandate” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Economic Mobility Summit, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker participates in fireside chat on how economic mobility impacts regional economies and can promote local growth before the Economic Mobility Summit sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Global Summit.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in fireside chat, “Macro and Micro Economic Forces Shaping our Future" before the RVA Big Dipper Innovation Summit.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on “Transmission of Monetary Policy" before the University of Minnesota Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute (HHEI) Spring 2025 Roundtable.

·       Canada PPI (March)/ Raw Materials Prices (March)

·       USA Redbook (April/19)/ Fed Jefferson Speech/ / Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (April)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (April)/ Money Supply (March)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/18)/

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)/ Economic Activity (February)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi begins a two-day visit to Saudi Arabia.

· In Australia, early voting begins in the country’s federal elections, which are held on May 3.  Polls leading up to the race had pointed to a potential minority government, where neither party achieves the 76 seats needed to govern, but the incumbent center-left Labor Party, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, has gained momentum during the campaign, improving his chances of forming a government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (March)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meets with Uzbekistan President Mirziyoyev and Foreign Minister Saido in Tashkent.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board member Luis de Guindos will give remarks at the MIT/ICADE Finance Club in Madrid, Spain.

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts & Forecasters/ Government Budget & Debt to GDP 2024/ ECB Knot Speech/ Consumer Confidence Flash (April)/ ECB Guindos Speech

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (March)/ Employment Growth (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Export/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Inflation Expectations (April)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenyan President William Ruto will visit China through April 26.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (February)

Wednesday, April 23, 2025

Global

·       The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Institute of International Finance holds its Global Outlook Forum in Washington, D.C. alongside the IMF/World Bank meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will give remarks and participate in a conversation at the Institute for International Finance conference (virtual).

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president and chief executive Austan Goolsbee delivers opening remarks in a virtual presentation at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s 2025 Economic Mobility Summit.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem give opening remarks before a “Fed Listens" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks before the Money Marketeers of New York University.

·       SA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/18)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ New Home Sales (March)/ EIA Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stocks Change (April/18)/ Fed Beige Book/ Building Permits (March)/ Building Permits (March)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (February)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (March)

·       Colombia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (February)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Singapore, the nine-day election campaign begins in advance of the May 3 election.

·       The Shanghai Auto Show begins – the world’s biggest – and runs for ten days.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (April)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Credit Card Spending (March)

·       Australia S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ Tertiary Industry Index (February)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Indonesia HSBC Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ Loan Growth (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (April)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (March)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Russian-Iranian Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation meets in Moscow.

·       EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius will meet with South Korea's minister for the Defense Acquisition Program Administration, Seok Jong-gun, in Brussels, Belgium.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England chief economist and executive director for monetary analysis Huw Pill speaks at Leeds University Business School.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board member Piero Cipollone will participate on a panel discussion entitled “Tokenization and the Financial System: Adapting to the New Landscape” during the IMF/WB Spring Meetings in Washington D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board member Philip R. Lane will participate on a panel entitled “Central Bankers’ Dilemmas Amid Changing Global Liquidity conditions” at IIF Global Outlook Forum “Forging Growth in a Time of Transition” during the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington D.C.

·       eat Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (March)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ BoE Bailey Speech/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       France HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)

·       Germany HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Construction Output (February)/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Poland Retail Sales (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (February)/ Industrial Production (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Madagascar and partake in the fifth summit of the Indian Ocean Commission. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (March)

Thursday, April 24, 2025

Global

·       The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors are meeting in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Trump Administration is hoping to finalize a deal with Ukraine for access to critical minerals.

·       Malaysian Trade Minister Zafrul meets US Trade Representative Jamison Greer in Washington.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the University of Minnesota College of Science and Engineering event, “Innovating the Future: Perspectives on Science, Engineering and the Economy."

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Chile PPI (March)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (April)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (February)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (April/19)/ Existing Home Sales (March)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/18)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (April)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/24)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/23)

·       Paraguay PPI (March)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China marks the National Day of Space Flight, on the day in 1970 when the country launched its first man-made earth satellite, Dongfanghong-1.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/19)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/19)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q1

·       Australia RBA Bulletin

·       Thailand New Car Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London, United Kingdom, on the sidelines of the Energy Security Summit co-hosted by the United Kingdom and the International Energy Agency through April 25..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board member Philip R. Lane will participate in a panel session at the Peterson Institute (PIIE) Webcast “Review of Monetary Policy Strategy by Central Banks”.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagne will participate on a panel at the symposium “A Franco-German Tandem? Insights from History and Future Challenges for the Banking Systems in France and Germany” jointly organized by the Institute for Banking and Financial History (IBF), the House of Finance at Goethe University Frankfurt and in cooperation with Deutsch-Französische Gesellschaft Frankfurt am Main at the invitation of ODDO BHF in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board member Sharon Donnery will give  introductory remarks and participate on a panel discussion at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) roundtable, "The Future of Financial Global Policymaking" in Washington D.C., United States of America.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (March)

·       France Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Spain PPI (March)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/18)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (April)/ Ifo Current Conditions (April)/ Ifo Expectations (April)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (April)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (March)

·       Great Britain CBI Business Optimism Index Q2/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech/ ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Donnery Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits South Africa..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (March)

Friday, April 25, 2025 

Global

·       IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (April)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (February)

·       Canada Retail Sales (February)/ Manufacturing Sales MoM Prel (March)/ Budget Balance (February)

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions (April)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/25)

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (January)/ Federal Tax Revenues (February)/ Federal Tax Revenues (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Anzac Day in Australia and New Zealand, honoring the anniversary of the Gallipoli landings in 1915 during World War I.

·       The Marshall Islands holds a constitutional referendum.

·       Today is Military Foundation day in North Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (April)/ Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Economic Index (February)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Index (February)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (March)

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q2

·       India Bank Loan Growth (April/11)/ Deposit Growth (April/11)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board member Claudia Buch will give introductory remarks and participate on a panel discussion at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C.  

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (April)/ Car Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (March)

·       France Business Confidence (April)/ Business Climate Indicator (April)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech/ ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, April 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 27, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Venezuela will hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada General Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will visit Vietnam and the Philippines through April 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.