Recommended Weekend Reads

Guides to Understanding Trump’s Trade and Foreign Policy, What the EU Must Do to Build Up Their Defense Capabilities, the US Workforce Challenge, and Why China Isn’t the Obvious Winner in Latin America

March 28 - 30, 2025

Understanding Trump's Trade and Foreign Policy 

• A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System      Stephen Miran/Hudson Bay Capital

  Stephen Miran is one of President Donald Trump’s top economic advisors.  He chairs the White house Council of Economic Advisors.  He is also the author of a 41-page memo – more a blueprint -  that lays out what can be achieved by what is being billed as a “Mar-A-Lago Accord” which would revise the framework for the global financial system. 

• Trump, Strategy, and Mercantilism   School of War Podcast

  Walter Russell Mead, Alexander Hamilton Professor of Strategy and Statecraft at the University of Florida's Hamilton Center and columnist for The Wall Street Journal, joins the show to talk about the role of economic issues in Trump’s strategic views.  They discuss Mercantilism and physiocracy, the role of Silicon Valley, the dollar, coalitions, tariffs, China, and what President Trump thinks about all of it.

• Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community   Office of the Director of National Intelligence

  In this year’s public annual report – the first of the new Trump Administration and under the oversight of new DNI Tulsi Gabbard- the DNI points out the following: Both state and nonstate actors pose multiple immediate threats to the Homeland and U.S. national interests. Terrorist and transnational criminal organizations are directly threatening our citizens. Cartels are largely responsible for the more than 52,000 U.S. deaths from synthetic opioids in the 12 months ending in October 2024 and helped facilitate the nearly three million illegal migrant arrivals in 2024, straining resources and putting U.S. communities at risk. A range of cyber and intelligence actors are targeting our wealth, critical infrastructure, telecom, and media. Nonstate groups are often enabled, both directly and indirectly, by state actors, such as China and India as sources of precursors and equipment for drug traffickers. State adversaries have weapons that can strike U.S. territory, or disable vital U.S. systems in space, for coercive aims or actual war. These threats reinforce each other, creating a vastly more complex and dangerous security environment. Russia, China, Iran and North Korea—individually and collectively—are challenging U.S. interests in the world by attacking or threatening others in their regions, with both asymmetric and conventional hard power tactics, and promoting alternative systems to compete with the United States, primarily in trade, finance, and security.

The EU’s Move to Build Up Its Defense Capabilities

• Joint White Paper for European Defense Readiness 2030     European Commission

  From the paper’s introduction: The international order is undergoing changes of a magnitude not seen since 1945. These changes are particularly profound in Europe because of its central role in the major geopolitical challenges of the last century. The political equilibrium that emerged from the end of the Second World War and then the conclusion of the Cold War has been severely disrupted. However much we may be wistful about this old era, we need to accept the reality that it is not coming back. Upholding the international rules-based order will remain of utmost importance, both in our interest and as an expression of our values. However, a new international order will be formed in the second half of this decade and beyond. Unless we shape this order – in both our region and beyond – we will be passive recipients of the outcome of this period of interstate competition with all the negative consequences that could flow from this, including the real prospect of full-scale war. History will not forgive us for inaction.

• Defending Europe without the US: first estimates of what is needed    A Joint Publication of Bruegel and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy

  Europe could need 300,000 more troops and an annual defense spending hike of at least €250 billion in the short term to deter Russian aggression.  From a macroeconomic perspective, a debt-funded increase in defense spending should boost European economic activity at a time when external demand may be undermined by the upcoming trade war (Ilzetzki, 2025; Ramey, 2011), though yields and inflation may rise. Ilzetzki (2025) argued that defense spending can also positively contribute to long-term growth via innovation, but a precise quantification of such effects is still needed.

• The Case for Europe    Strategic Europe

  By choosing to vote against a United Nations resolution marking the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United States seems intent on abandoning its leadership of the West after eighty years of hegemony. Europe is going through its gravest hour since the Second World War—and most Transatlanticist political leaders are starting to realize it.  At best, Europe will have to defend its territory alone and take responsibility for deterrence. At worst, it will have to fend off great powers actively seeking to subvert it as they assert their respective spheres of influence. This could involve political interference, economic coercion, and open aggression, tearing Europe apart. Europe’s choice lies in between these two scenarios. Rather than predict success or failure, it is worth outlining the building blocks that make the case for a stronger Europe possible and the pitfalls this vision could run into.  

• Germany’s big spending splurge gives EU the jitters    Politico Europe

  European Union governments have expressed fears that the radical spending plans announced by Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting will end up skewing the bloc’s single market and could give the country an unfair competitive edge. A month on from an election that made Friedrich Merz almost certainly the next leader in Berlin, the upper house of parliament on Friday approved a historic change to the country's basic law to exclude defense investment above 1 percent of economic output from the nation’s strict spending rules, along with a €500 billion fund for infrastructure and green energy, clearing the final parliamentary hurdle.  While Germany’s allies in Europe have broadly welcomed Berlin’s long-awaited loosening of the purse strings, there is a sense of unease about the impact it could have at a time when economies are still struggling to recover after the twin shocks of Covid and the Ukraine conflict, and with the looming threat of a trade war with the U.S.

• Why Europe can’t defend itself: Political fragmentation is blocking autonomy   Wolfgang Munchau/UnHerd

  Imagine a world in which Western Europe was actually able to stick it to Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump simultaneously. As if. Back in the real world, there’s a remote possibility the Europeans might get their act together sufficiently to stand up to one, or the other. But not both. They will, in classic fashion, be split. Some of the eastern European countries, the Baltic States, for example, will prioritize a push-back against Russia. Others, like France, are more concerned with driving their independence from the US. Then there is a third group that wants neither. So, where does that leave Europe? What they are agreed on is the plan is to increase military spending. The EU will follow Germany’s example and partially exempt the defense budget from the fiscal rules. But the truth is, no amount of investment will wean the EU off its American dependency any time soon. It will take decades to close the immense defense technology gap. To build entire industries from scratch takes time. You need defense companies, supply chains, and know-how. Europe is far from the cutting edge of 21st century defense technology and its expertise in that sector has been diminished since the end of the Cold War.

• Behind NATO’s 2 Percent: Measuring the True Scope of Alliance Defense Investments and the NATO Defense Deficit    Mackenzie Eaglen & Cole Spiller/American Enterprise Institute

  This working paper examines NATO’s military spending through two key lenses: how NATO allies measure defense expenditures and the strategic implications of the long-term defense deficit created by chronic underfunding. While 21 member states now meet the 2 percent of GDP benchmark, the alliance must look beyond numerical targets to assess whether these investments translate into real military capability.2 Closing NATO’s $2 trillion defense deficit requires greater transparency in accounting to allow for more complete analysis, as well as sustained increases in spending to build credible deterrence against rising threats.

The Changing US Workforce

• Shifting Immigration Toward High-Skilled Workers    Penn Wharton Budget Model

  We evaluate two immigration policies that shift 10 percent of future low-skilled immigration toward either: (i) high-skilled immigrants (“HSI”) that otherwise maintains the current share of STEM workers within the high-skilled group, or (ii) only high-skilled STEM workers (“HSI STEM”) that increases the share of STEM relative to other high-skill workers. The number of total immigrants remains the same under both policies. Both policies grow the economy, reduce federal debt, and increase wages across all income groups: lower-skilled, higher-skilled non-STEM workers, and higher-skilled STEM workers. In fact, this policy change affords the rare opportunity of a “Pareto improvement” benefitting all groups.

• Technology Adoption and the Changing Role and Background of Clerical Workers   Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

  From 1980 through 2015, the share of clerical jobs in the employed labor force declined more significantly in large and expensive cities than in smaller cities. Moreover, the remaining workers performing these occupations in large and expensive cities had, on average, higher education levels and were more likely to perform tasks usually done by managerial and professional personnel when compared to their small-city counterparts. In this Economic Commentary, we show how these patterns are related to the uneven adoption of information communication technologies (ICT) across geographies and discuss adoption’s impact on clerical jobs’ tasks and worker requirements.

• Defensive Hiring and Creative Destruction      Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde/Yang Yu/Francesco Zanetti/National Bureau of Economic Research

  America has long struggled with a lack of productivity growth despite huge investment in research and development. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Yang Yu, and Francesco Zanetti find that the defensive hiring of researchers by incumbent firms with monopsony power reduces creative destruction, which in turn maintains the status quo and leads to stagnant productivity growth.

The Americas 

• China Won’t Be the Obvious Winner in Latin America    Ryan Berg/Foreign Policy

  After a mere two months in office, a narrative on the Trump administration’s policy toward LAC and great-power competition has emerged: Regional influence will accrue to China at the expense of the United States because Washington appears a “bully,” has talked of reviving the controversial Monroe Doctrine, and has occasionally adopted the rhetoric of territorial expansion. A deputy assistant secretary of state in the Biden administration accused the Trump administration of shortsightedness, leading to “an opening for China, made in America.” Even a former staffer in the first Trump administration worried that the current approach to LAC “could unwittingly facilitate the extension of Beijing’s influence.” Will the Trump administration’s more assertive approach toward LAC benefit China?

• What Elections Mean for Canada and the Future of North America    Center for Strategic and International Studies

  On March 23, newly minted Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced snap elections for April 28, kicking off a contest to determine Canada’s future at a critical juncture. The election pits the incumbent Liberal Party, which has received a second wind since January in part due to tariffs and political threats from the United States, against the Conservative Party under the leadership of “Canada First” politician Pierre Poilievre. No matter the outcome, however, the next leader of Canada will inherit a tense relationship with the United States, public pressure to deliver economic gains, and an increasingly fraught global security environment that impinges upon Canada’s sovereignty.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Bessent Moves to Take Control of Banking Regulation, SEC Chair-Nominee Atkins and Comptroller-Nominee Gould Get Their Confirmation Hearing, and Fed Governor Barr Talks Bank Regulation

As my kids used to say when they were little, “Spring has spronged.”  Daffodils are popping up all over Washington, and spring energy is showing up on the Trump regulatory agenda.  Numerous reports have leaked out that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is drafting recommendations for ways to streamline the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation – likely pushing to merge the two agencies.  There is no word on how the Federal Reserve would factor into these plans, but it sets up a possible fight with Congress on the structure of bank regulation overall..

We would note that Semafor reported on all this last week (and, strangely, there was not much of a reaction to the in-depth report).  According to the report, Bessent is going to make the recommendations following the Senate confirmation of Luke Pettit as the Treasury Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions.  Pettit would likely run point on the effort.

Pettit’s Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing is this Thursday, where he, along with SEC Chair-nominee Paul Atkins and Comptroller of the Currency-nominee Jonathan Gould, will face tough questions from Democrats on the committee. Ranking Committee Democrat Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is primed to go after Atkins in particular, sending a long letter to him this past week asking numerous questions about his business and his policy views.  It should be quite an interesting hearing.

Finally, we were interested to see former Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr – who stepped down from the role two weeks ago and is now “just” a Fed Governor – speaking g on bank regulation policy this coming week at the Banking Institute.  Barr clearly is going to keep a strong focus on the issue, and it will be interesting to watch his role evolve as fellow Fed Governor Michelle Bowman gets ready for confirmation hearings to replace him as Vice Chair for Supervision.  In some ways, this is just a reversal of roles, as Bowman was a frequent speaker and commentator (and critic) of bank regulatory policy under Barr.

There are several interesting think tank and trade association events this week, along with five separate hearings in the House of Representatives looking at a variety of regulatory issues.  Below  is what else we are watching in the Washington financial regulatory world this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

·       Tuesday, March 25, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on the nomination of Frank Bisignano as commissioner of the Social Security Administration.

·       Thursday, March 27, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold the confirmation hearing for Paul Atkins for Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Jonathan Gould to be Comptroller of the Currency, and Luke Pettit to the Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Financial Institutions.

House of Representatives

·       Tuesday, March 25, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing on "Beyond Silicon Valley: Expanding Access to Capital Across America."

·       Tuesday, March 25, 10:00 a.m. – The House Agriculture Committee holds a hearing on "The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) at 50: Examining the Past and Future of Commodity Markets."

·       Wednesday, March 26, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Financial Institutions Subcommittee holds a hearing on "A New Era for the CFPB (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau): Balancing Power and Reprioritizing Consumer Protections."

·       Wednesday, March 26, 10:00 a.m. – The House Small Business Committee holds a hearing on "The Golden Age: Unleashing Main Street Through Deregulation."

·       Wednesday, March 26, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee hearing on "Following the Money: Tools and Techniques to Combat Fraud

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Monday, March 24, 3:10 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on Small Business Lending at the Advancing Innovation and Fairness in Small Business Finance, Washington, D.C.

·       Tuesday, March 25, 8:40 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the Economic Landscape and Entrepreneurship at the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce 2025 Legislative Summit, Washington D.C.

·       Friday, March 28, 12:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr participates in a discussion on banking policy at the 2025 Banking Institute, Charlotte, North Carolina.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Monday, March 24, 9:10 a.m. – Acting SEC Chair Mark Uyeda speaks at the SIFMA C&L 2025 Annual Seminar in Austin, Texas.

·       Thursday, March 27, 9:00 a.m. – The Securities and Exchange Commission holds a discussion on "Artificial Intelligence in the Financial Industry."  Acting SEC Chairman Mark Uyeda, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, and SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw will participate.

·       Thursday, March 27, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Monday, March 24, 1:40 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will deliver a keynote address at the SIFMA C&L 2025 Annual Seminar Women’s Luncheon in Austin, Texas.

·       Wednesday, March 26, 12:00 p.m. (GMT) – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate in a policy roundtable convened by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association in London.

·       Wednesday, March 26, 9:50 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Summer K. Mersinger will participate in the Crypto, Derivatives, and the Road Ahead: A Conversation with the CFTC and NFA panel at the Digital Chamber’s DC Blockchain Summit in Washington, D.C.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       Monday, March 24, 3:40 p.m. – Acting Comptroller of the Currency Rodney E. Hood will discuss financial inclusion at the Homeownership and Housing Policy Conference hosted by the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals in Washington, D.C.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       March 23 -26 – SIFMA holds its C&L 2025 Annual Seminar is being held in Austin, Texas.

·       The Digital Chamber’s Blockchain Summit will be held in Washington, D.C.  Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) and House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-AK) will speak.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Tuesday, March 25, 1:00 p.m. – The Urban Institute holds a discussion on "Improving Household Financial Security and Upward Mobility: Insights for Effective Policy and Practice."

Recommended Reads

• Trump’s ‘Strategic Bitcoin Reserve’ Makes No Sense   The CATO Institute

  Bitcoin, the pioneer free-market digital asset, which was originally supposed to function beyond governments’ reach, is now being boosted by at least one of the governments it was supposed to defy: ours.  When bitcoin was invented in 2008, its anonymous (but certainly libertarian) inventors hoped it would rival official currencies, especially the US dollar. Instead of being regulated by governments, the quantity of bitcoin would be controlled by a decentralized and tamper-proof computer program, or “protocol,” set to have it gradually approach a limit of 21 million coins. By guaranteeing bitcoins’ scarcity, the protocol would make them an attractive alternative to monies that governments can print to their hearts’ content, which tend to depreciate for that reason.

The Global Week Ahead

U.S.-Led Ukraine Peace Talks Resume in Saudi Arabia, Trump Officials to Make A “Private Visit” to Greenland, Canda’s Carney Calls Snap Elections,  China Hosts Two Major Economic Forums, and It Is A Heavy Week of Economic Reports

March 23 - 30, 2025

Spring is in the air in the Northern Hemisphere after a pretty rough winter.  And with it comes a significant uptick of diplomatic activity globally.  This coming week, U.S. diplomats will again travel to Ryad, Saudi Arabia for talks with Russian counterparts in a bid to reach an agreement on a ceasefire in Ukraine.  As we reported last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin seemed to make some positive remarks toward reaching a deal but then reiterated a host of unpalatable demands on the US, NATO, and Ukraine – including removing NATO forces from Eastern European NATO member states and no NATO membership for Ukraine.  This was followed by some of the most intensive missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian civilian targets since the war began.

One aspect of the talks will focus on how to make shipping safer in the Black Sea as a means to reaching a cease-fire.  We continue to pessimistic Putin – who is celebrating his 25th year in power this week – will relent and agree on any peace deal.

Also this week, U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Walz and 2nd Lady Usha Vance are scheduled to make a “private visit” to Greenland as the newly elected government there begins forming.  What exactly they are doing – and why the 2nd Lady is involved – remains a mystery at this time of writing.

Meanwhile, newly chosen Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has called for snap elections on April 28.  Carney said he needs a strong mandate to deal with President Trump, saying Trump “wants to break us so America can own us.”  Carney went on to say Canada is facing “the most significant crisis of our lifetimes because of President Trump’s unjustified trade actions and his threats to our sovereignty.”     Oddly, this comes as President Trump claimed British King Charles II secretly offered – and Trump indicated he was  interested in pursuing –the U.S. to become an associate member of the British Commonwealth.  The Commonwealth, which was created in 1926, is made up of 56 countries – including Canada – which were originally British colonies.

China will be holding two major economic forums this week which are likely to give investors greater insight into the state of China’s economy and what new steps Beijing may take to try to further bolster the economy.  The first is the China Development Forum (CDF) and the second is the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) which is commonly referred to as the “Davos of Asia.”    The CDF comes as foreign investment in China has been rapidly shrinking.  Major US and European CEOs are scheduled to attend and are expected to meet with President Xi Jinping.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it is going to be a big week with lots of new data coming out globally.   Inflation indicators are going to be released in the US, Japan, and Europe.

Looking first at the US, the February PCE and personal income and spending data are due out on Friday as well as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday.  The Conference Board’s report will be closely looked at by investors following the University of Michigan’s economic reports last week which showed consumer sentiment had sunk to its lowest level since 2022. 

Additionally, as the U.S. Congress struggles to hammer out a tax and budget deal via a giant Reconciliation package, the Congressional Budget Office is publishing its federal debt outlook on Wednesday and the statutory limit report on Thursday, putting more pressure on how far Congress can go cutting taxes and dealing  more aggressively with the deficit.

Turning to Europe, the UK releases CPI and RPI data on Wednesday while the Eurozone March flash CPIs are out on Friday.  Germany releases the Ifo survey on Tuesday and we will see consumer sentiment numbers from Germany, Italy, and France this week, too.

In Asia, the Central Bank of Japan releases recent meeting minutes as the Tokyo CPI is out Friday. Australia releases its budget this week, too.  And in China, the 1-year MLF rate is set on Tuesday while we will see industrial profit reports on Thursday. 

Below are the rest of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we will be watching in the coming week:

Sunday, March 23, 2025

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will call for snap elections for April 28.  Carney is citing “the most significant crisis of our lifetime” caused by President Trump and the tariffs he has placed on the country.

·       Argentine President Javier Milei will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Israel. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and First Lady Jane Yumiko Ittogi begin a state visit to Belgium and Luxembourg.

·       Pakistan celebrates Republic Day. The government will hold large military parades showing a wide array of weapons, including nuclear-capable weapons systems.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania Presidential Election (1st Round)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas will visit Cairo, Egypt to discuss the situation in Gaza.

·       Turkey's main opposition party, the Republican People's Party, will hold presidential primaries ahead of Turkey's 2028 presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 24, 2025

Global

·       US-Ukraine talks on establishing a cease-fire take place in Saudi Arabia through March 24.  Negotiators are expected to discuss how to ensure safer shipping in the Black Sea as part of the talks

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Advancing adaptability in UN Peace Operations – Responding to new realities. The Secretary-General will deliver remarks.

·       At the United Nations, Filippo Grandi, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Ms. Amy Pope, International Organization for Migration Director General, and a representative of the Bangladesh Government, will launch the 2025-26 Joint Response Plan (JRP) for the Rohingya Humanitarian Crisis in Bangladesh. The first-ever multi-year funding appeal for the Rohingya Response in Bangladesh brings together 113 partners, including Bangladeshi organizations, to reach some 1.48 million people including Rohingya refugees and host communities in its first year.  

·       The 1st meeting of BRICS Senior Energy Officials Committee meets in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli officials are expected to travel to Washington to discuss Iran’s nuclear program and Israel’s demarcation talks with Lebanon.

·       Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa and leftist Luisa González debate before the presidential runoff.

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on Small Business Lending at the Advancing Innovation and Fairness in Small Business Finance, Washington, D.C.

·       Chile PPI (February)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (January)/ Mid-month Core Inflation Rate (March)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (March)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (February)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

·       El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

·       Paraguay PPI (February)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva visits Japan from Monday to Thursday. He is to meet Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, and the pair are expected to agree on an action plan in the areas of investment and security.

·       South Korea's Constitutional Court will rule on the impeachment of acting President Han Duck-soo, which may allow him to resume his duties in that role.

· The Asian Development Bank publishes its Asian Economic Integration report.

·       The China Development Forum will begin in Beijing. The Forum is being held as China is seeing plunging inbound investments and growing uncertainties after sweeping U.S. import tariffs. Some of the executives are reportedly meeting President Xi Jinping after the forum.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia 2025–26 Federal Budget/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (February)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal’s Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel visits China for bilateral talks.

·       In Berlin, there will be a Press conference of the conservative party CDU general secretary Carsten Linnemann to inform on the stand of the negotiations on the formation of a new governing coalition.

·       NATO holds Dynamic Mariner 25 maritime exercises in Spain.

·       Isar Aerospace test flight of its Spectrum launcher, first flight of an orbital vehicle launched from continental Europe, launches from Andøya, Norway.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets with the Board of Trustees of the Gorchakov Fund think tank in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives the distinguished lecture at the University of Leicester.

·       Switzerland Current Account Q4

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

·       Greece Current Account (January)

·       Poland Retail Sales (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. They will hold a public policy debate on the Communication on a Vision for agriculture and food, published by the European Commission on 19 February 2025.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Health Ministers in Brussels through March 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (February)

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (February)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

·       The BRICS Sherpas Meeting takes place in Brazil through March 24.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil’s Supreme Court considers whether to try ex-president Jair Bolsonaro on coup charges.

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will visit Japan through March 26.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the Economic Landscape and Entrepreneurship at the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce 2025 Legislative Summit, Washington D.C.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives opening remarks before the 2025 New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ FGV Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (January)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (February)

·       USA Redbook (March/22)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (January)/ House Price Index (January)/ CB Consumer Confidence (March)/ New Home Sales (February)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ Money Supply (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/21)/ Building Permits (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Colombia Business Confidence (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Boao Forum, sometimes known as 'Asia's Davos,' starts on Tuesday on the southern Chinese island of Hainan under the banner "Asia in the Changing World: Towards a Shared Future." Bangladesh's leader Muhammad Yunus is expected to address the forum before heading to Beijing for a meeting with Xi on Friday. 

·       Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers presents the federal budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Australia RBA Jones Speech

·       The Bank of Japan meeting notes are published.

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (January)/ Leading Index (January)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The new German Parliament will convene its first session since federal elections on Feb. 23

·       In the Netherlands, NATO's largest air defense exercise Joint Project Optic Windmill (JPOW).

·       Today is Greek Independence Day, celebrating when the country won the Greek Revolution in 1821 freeing them from 400 years of occupation by the Ottoman Empire.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Union New Car Registrations (February)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (March)/ Capacity Utilization (March)

·       Spain PPI (February)/ Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (March)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (March)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (January)/ Consumer Confidence Q1

Wednesday, March 26, 2025

Global

·       The BRICS 1st Finance and Central Bank Deputies meets in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Governors of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) hold their annual meeting in Santiago, Chile though March 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks and participates in a moderated conversation on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before a Paducah Area Chamber of Commerce/Greater Paducah Economic Development luncheon.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/21)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (March/21)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/21)/ Durable Goods Orders (February)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (March/21)

·       Brazil Current Account (February)/ Foreign Direct Investment (February)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (February)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea’s opposition official Lee Jae-myung will face a legal verdict on charges of violating the election law. If convicted he will be banned from public office, and his party will have to select another candidate ahead of the next election.

·       Today is Independence Day in Bangladesh.

·       The Bangkok Auto Show begins and runs through April 6.

·       SEMICON China 2025, a massive semiconductor expo, begins in Shanghai, China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (March)

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (February)

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Japan Coincident Index (January)/ Leading Economic Index (January)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Finance minister Rachel Reeves delivers Spring Statement on the economy.

·       Today is the 25th anniversary of Vladimir Putin being elected President of Russia.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets with Esteban Lazo Hernandez, head of Cuba’s parliament, in Moscow.

·       Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin presents a government report to the State Duma.

·       The Russian Arctic Forum begins in Murmansk, Russia, and runs through March 27.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Ban Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone Participates in panel discussion entitled  ‘Philipp Sandner Award in Digital Finance Research’ at 11th Crypto Assets Conference organized by the Frankfurt School Blockchain Center in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI Input & Output (February)/ Retail Price Index (February)/ Spring Economic Statement

·       France Consumer Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (February)/ Jobseekers Total (February)

·       European Central Bank Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Russia Corporate Profits (January)/ Industrial Production (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, March 27, 2025

Global

·       The UN the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) followed by consultations.

·       The inaugural Global Conference on AI, Security and Ethics begins in Geneva and runs through March 28.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US National Security Advisor Mike Walz and Second Lady Usha Vance will travel to Greenland  - billed as a “private visit” – to participate in talks with the incoming new Greenland government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin delivers the H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economy at Washington and Lee University.

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (March)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (January)

·       USA GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Corporate Profits Q4/ GDP Price Index Q4/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (February)/ Initial Jobless Claims (March/22)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (March/15)/ PCE Prices Q4/ Real Consumer Spending Q4/ Pending Home Sales (February)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March/21)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (March)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/27)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/26)

·       Argentina Current Account Q4/ Economic Activity (January)

·       Colombia Cement Production (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te will hold the first "whole of society" civil defense drill during his term, part of a new initiative launched by the administration to assess and strengthen public preparedness. The exercise will incorporate complex disaster scenarios, including damage to critical infrastructure, and will verify the response capabilities of central and local government bodies. The test comes as tensions with China heat up, with Beijing's forces holding repeated military exercises near the island.

·       French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot will visit Beijing, China, through March 28.

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will visit Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (March/22)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/22)

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (February)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Malaysia PPI (February)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will host in Paris another summit of European leaders considering participation in a "coalition of willing" to support Ukraine. Representatives of Canada, the EU, and UK will attend.

·       EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic visits Beijing through March 29 to discuss a number of trade issues.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron hosts Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in Paris.

·       The EU Environmental Council will meet in Brussels.  Ministers will focus on the environmental dimension of the clean industrial deal, which was presented by the Commission on 26 February 2025 as a joint roadmap for competitiveness and decarbonization.  The clean industrial deal aims to bring together climate action and competitiveness under one overarching growth strategy, with a focus on energy intensive industries and clean tech. It puts a strong emphasis on circularity and envisages a range of measures to strengthen the circular economy, including a circular economy act, a green VAT initiative and a chemical industry package.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank General Council meeting

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde delivers a pre-recorded message at the conference "Mujeres en economía y finanzas" organized by Banco Central de Chile in Santiago, Chile.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Claudia Buch gives the introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the 2025 IIF European Summit "Europe at a Crossroads: A Time to Act for Competitiveness and Growth" in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel delivers the Mais Lecture “Financial literacy and monetary policy transmission” organized by Bayes Business School in London, United Kingdom.

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Participation Rate (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/21)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

·       Spain Retail Sales (February)/ Current Account (January)/ Business Confidence (March)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (March)

·       Russia GDP (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (February)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (March)

Friday, March 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will visit Vietnam through March 29.

·       U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will visit Manila, Philippines, through March 29.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr participates in a discussion on banking policy at the 2025 Banking Institute, Charlotte, North Carolina.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic moderates a Housing Finance Policy panel before the Third Annual Georgia Tech-Atlanta Fed Household Finance Conference.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Net Payrolls (February)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (March)/ GDP (January)/ Budget Balance (January)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (February)

·       USA Personal Income & Spending (February)/ PCE Price Index (February)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations & Sentiment (March)/ Michigan Current Conditions (March)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (March/28)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladesh's interim leader Muhammad Yunus will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping for bilateral talks in Beijing, China.

·       The Philippines kicks off campaigning for local positions, including all seats in the House of Representatives, half in the Senate and city and provincial offices, ahead of mid-term elections. Within seven weeks, Filipinos will head off to polling stations to vote in one of the most crucial elections in recent memory. Experts widely regard it as a proxy battle between the political clans of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and of ex-President Rodrigo Duterte.

·       Tajikistan holds elections for their upper house of parliament.

·       Today is Serf’s Emancipation Day in Tibet.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (March)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Construction Orders (February)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (February)/ Imports/ Exports (February)/ PPI (February)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (February)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (February)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (March)/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (March/14)/ Deposit Growth (March/14)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/21)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council (Cohesion) meets in Brussels. 

Economic Reports/Events –

European Central Bank Board Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives online remarks at the conference "VI Cumbre FEDEPE" organized by FEDEPE (Federation of Female Professionals).

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence APR/ Unemployed Persons/ Change/ Rate (March)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (March)

·       Great Britain Current Account Q4/ Goods Trade Balance (January)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Business Investment Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (February)

·       Hungary Current Account Q4/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       France Inflation Rate (March)/ Household Consumption (February)/ PPI (February)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (March)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (March)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (February)

·       Italy Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Industrial Sales (January)/ PPI (February)

·       Euro Area Economic Sentiment (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)/ Industrial Sentiment (March)/ Selling Price Expectations (March)/Services Sentiment (March)

·       Greece PPI (February)/ Total Credit (February)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (February)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (March)

Saturday, March 29, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will join US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Gen Nakatani, the Japanese Defence Minister, on the Pacific island of Iwo Jima for a joint memorial service to commemorate the 1945 battle that involved some of the fiercest fighting of the second world war and the location for the famous US marine flag raising image. According to the Financial Times. Hegseth is likely to use the occasion to lobby Japan to increase its defense spending.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Retail Sales (February)

·       Thailand Current Account (February)/ Private Consumption & Investment (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 30, 2025

Global

·       Eid al-Fitr will be observed. It is the first of the two official holidays celebrated within Islam. Eid al-Fitr is celebrated by Muslims worldwide because it marks the end of the month-long dawn-to-dusk fasting of Ramadan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Daylights Savings time begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

The War on Ukraine, Broader Implications of the Peace Talks, Argentina’s Big Challenge, and the Future of Europe’s Security

March 14 - 16, 2025

Russia’s War on Ukraine and The Implications of a Possible Cease Fire

• The Kremlin's Balancing Act     Foreign Policy Research Institute

  Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russian government accelerated the preexisting trend of centralizing control over regional power and economic assets.  This study explains the shift of government control, highlights instances of pushback, and identifies limitations on the Kremlin's strategy going forward.  The Kremlin's centralization drive has manifested in several ways, including tightening control over regional and municipal political institutions, expanding financial control over regional budgets and policy priorities, nationalizing and indirectly mobilizing business assets, and introducing new priorities in personnel policy.  These changes have created winners and losers, resulting in friction and resistance from regional elites who perceive their interests and autonomy as threatened. The sustainability of the Kremlin's strategy is uncertain and risks intensifying tensions and worsening government instability.

• Lessons from Minsk II for the Ukraine peace talks   Brussels Signal

  The road to peace in Ukraine is extremely difficult and perhaps also very long, despite President Trump’s initial hopes. Even agreeing an initial ceasefire in Ukraine is a tall order, as this Tuesday’s Trump-Putin phone call attests. Nonetheless, negotiations will continue, particularly as all sides – Ukraine, Russia and the US – appear committed to achieving a full peace agreement rather than merely a Korean-style ceasefire.  Yet a full peace treaty is much more considerable undertaking, and these negotiations remain overshadowed by the failure of the Minsk II Agreement – a 2015 diplomatic effort that promised peace but ultimately collapsed. The lessons of Minsk II offer sobering insights into the obstacles facing any new settlement and the structural flaws that must be avoided if a sustainable resolution is to be achieved.

• Russia’s Peace Demands on Ukraine Have Not Budged     Council on Foreign Relations

  President Trump, in his recent address to Congress, said Russia has sent “strong signals that they are ready for peace.” Is that true? Not really. The Kremlin has not budged from its maximal demands for ending the conflict, which Russian President Vladimir Putin laid out last June and includes:

  • No NATO membership for Ukraine;

  • Ukraine’s recognition of Russia’s annexation of four Ukrainian provinces (even though Russia does not physically control all the territory of three of them);

  • Ukraine’s demilitarization and denazification (code for the installation of a pro-Russia puppet in Kyiv); and

  • the lifting of anti-Russia sanctions. 

  During a visit to the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation, Putin doubled down on that position just last week, saying that Russia does not intend to make any compromises in peace negotiations. The Russian president sees no need to make any concessions. His armies are making grinding progress on the battlefield, albeit at a heavy cost in men and materiel. The Russian economy has proven resilient to Western sanctions, growing by more than 4 percent each of the past two years. Ukraine, meanwhile, is facing severe manpower shortages, and Western support is flagging.

• Turkey in a Trump-and-Putin World    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  The disruptions to the world order caused by Russia and the new U.S. administration complicate Turkey’s balancing act between Moscow and the West. But these shifts could offer Ankara a chance to shape the evolving security dynamics and contribute to Europe’s stability.  Yet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cracked down on Turkish opposition parties this past week, arresting dozens of politicians, fearful of losing power in the upcoming elections and exposing the fragility of his government.

•  A Blueprint for a European Defense Force    Strategic Europe

  As the U.S. commitment to Europe’s security wanes and Russia’s threat to the continent grows, the need for a European defense force is becoming more pressing than ever. By expanding existing frameworks and investing in Ukraine’s defense industry, Europe can begin to take charge of its own security.

The Tariff Wars

• The Incoherent Case for Tariffs   Chad Brown/Douglas Irwin – Foreign Affairs Magazine

  Less than two months into his second term, U.S. President Donald Trump has made good—with startling intensity—on his campaign promise to impose tariffs. On inauguration day, he issued the America First Trade Policy Memorandum to review U.S. trade policy with an eye toward a new tariff regime. Over the first two weeks of February, he set in motion new duties covering nearly half a trillion dollars of U.S. imports. On March 4, he doubled the size of his already significant February tariff increase on China. Over this period, he has also announced, suspended, announced again, and suspended again 25 percent tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico. And his administration has pledged to impose reciprocal tariffs on April 2. The result has been uncertainty, chaos, and immediate retaliation from some of the United States’ biggest trade partners. All this economic upheaval raises a central question: Why is Trump so focused on tariffs? 

• Trump’s tariffs challenge India’s economic balance     The Australian Strategic Policy Institute

  US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats have dominated headlines in India in recent weeks. Earlier this month, Trump announced that his reciprocal tariffs—matching other countries’ tariffs on American goods—will go into effect on 2 April, causing Indian exporters to panic at the prospect of being embroiled in Trump’s escalating trade war. The economic impact on India, which runs a trade surplus with the US, could be significant. India exported goods worth nearly $74 billion to the US in 2024, and estimates suggest that Trump’s new tariffs could cost the country up to $7 billion annually.  But the implications could be much more far-reaching. One analysis estimates that India effectively imposes a 9.5 percent tariff on US goods, while US levies on Indian imports are only 3 percent. If Trump follows through on his pledge of full tariff reciprocity, that imbalance will vanish—along with the cost advantages many Indian exporters currently enjoy.

• Antitrust Fuels Trade Tensions    CEPA

  President Donald Trump’s tariff threats target “discrimination against American innovation,” and US legislators point to the EU’s Digital Markets Act as evidence – even as the US pursues its own tech antitrust cases.   The tensions underline a troubling reality: antitrust enforcement has become politicized, and as the Paris-based OECD Club of advanced democracies has long recognized, the politicization of antitrust enforcement makes markets less dynamic, less competitive, and less efficient, ultimately harming consumers. This outcome can be avoided if both European and American leaders depoliticize and focus enforcement on making markets work for consumers. 

• The Optimal Monetary Policy Response to Tariffs   Javier Bianchi & Louphou Coulibaly/NBER

  What is the optimal monetary policy response to tariffs? This paper explores this question within an open-economy New Keynesian model and shows that the optimal monetary policy response is expansionary, with inflation rising above and beyond the direct effects of tariffs. This result holds regardless of whether tariffs apply to consumption goods or intermediate inputs, whether the shock is temporary or permanent, and whether tariffs address other distortions.

Geoeconomics 

• Should Friday be the New Saturday? Hours Worked and Hours Wanted    National Bureau of Economic Research

  This paper investigates self-reported wedges between how much people work and how much they want to work at their current wage. More than two-thirds of full-time workers in German survey data are overworked—actual hours exceed desired hours. We combine this evidence with a simple labor supply model to assess the welfare consequences of tighter weekly hours limits via willingness-to-pay calculations. According to counterfactuals, the optimal length of the workweek in Germany is 37 hours. Introducing such a cap would raise welfare by .8-1.6% of GDP. The gains from a shortened workweek are largest for workers who are married, female, white collar, middle-aged, and high-income. An extended analysis integrates a non-constant wage-hours relationship, falling capital returns, and a shrinking tax base.

• Global Debt Report 2025   OECD

  Around 60% of the fixed-rate debt in the OECD that will mature by 2027 (approximately $9T) was issued in 2021 or earlier, before the recent tightening cycle, most likely at yields below current market rates. The weighted average YTM of the maturing debt in 2025-27 remains below 2% in all three years, [while] the average of the projected 10-year interest rate in OECD countries is expected to remain around 3.6% in 2025. The debt maturing in 2025-27 will, therefore, likely be refinanced at nearly twice the original rates. Increased borrowing needs and high borrowing costs have driven interest payments to a higher share of GDP in 2024, [contributing to] the first increase in the central government marketable debt-to-GDP ratio since 2020. The supply of bonds needing to be absorbed by the market accelerated as central banks continued to scale back their holdings. Four countries — France, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States — face heightened vulnerability, with the debt maturing by 2027 exceeding 15% of their current GDP and the average yield-to-maturity on debt issued in 2024 surpassing that of this maturing debt by over 1.5 percentage points.

Africa and Critical Minerals

• ·Zimbabwe’s lithium beneficiation policy: a catalyst for Vision 2030    ISS/Africa Futures

  As the global green energy transition gains momentum, lithium has emerged as the new gold, particularly in the automotive industry, due to its essential role in lithium-ion batteries. The demand for lithium continues to soar, and Zimbabwe stands at a competitive advantage as home to Africa’s largest lithium reserves and ranking among the world's top five in estimated deposits. If managed effectively, lithium beneficiation can drive Zimbabwe towards achieving its Vision 2030, transforming the country into an upper-middle-income economy. A fundamental aspect of this ambitious goal is attaining a GDP growth rate of 8–9% by 2030.

• Can the DRC Leverage U.S.-China Competition Over Critical Minerals for Peace?    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is offering the United States access to its mineral resources in an effort to ensure peace and stability in the country. The offer, made against the backdrop of U.S.-China competition over critical minerals, is designed to motivate Washington to play a decisive role in the security crisis in the eastern DRC. Unlike in 2012, when then-president Barack Obama threw his weight into pressuring Rwanda to halt its support for the M23 (March 23) rebel movement, more recent U.S. administrations, past and current, have struggled to play a decisive role in the conflict raging in the eastern DRC, where the Congolese government is battling Rwandan-backed M23/AFC (Alliance Fleuve Congo) rebels.

Latin America 

• Chevron Out, Black Market In? The Fallout of U.S. Sanctions on Venezuela Oilprice.com

  On February 26, President Trump announced his intention to end General License 41, which allowed Chevron to operate in Venezuela despite sanctions. The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) had created a system to monitor at least part of Venezuela’s oil industry by waiving sanctions for certain American, European, and Indian companies but with strict limitations. Four corporations that were authorized by licenses or comfort letters—Chevron, Repsol, Maurel et Prom, and Eni—contributed to a production of 325,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January, to the country’s total of 1,068,000 bpd, according to PDVSA, the state-owned energy company. The big question now is will it spur a massive rise of black-market oil coming out of Venezuela?
  

•  A Key Pending Challenge for Milei’s Argentina   Americas Quarterly

  Argentine President Javier Milei campaigned on two key promises: To bring the country’s high and accelerating inflation to a halt by dollarizing the economy and closing down the Argentine central bank (BCRA) and to balance the budget by taking a chainsaw to wasteful government spending. Now, 15 months into his term in office, he has made heroic progress on the fiscal and inflation fronts. But by forsaking dollarization and keeping currency and capital controls in place, Milei has jeopardized his anti-inflationary program and discouraged a potential investment boom.

North Korea

• The North Korean tourist trap       The interpreter/Lowry Institute

  Having closed the country even more tightly during the Covid pandemic, last month, North Korea put out the welcome sign for a small group of foreign tourists from Australia, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Canada for the first time since 2020. Yet the gates slammed shut again last week when Pyongyang announced it would grant no new tourism visas. Visitors from Russia have been allowed in since February 2024, but Chinese nationals, once North Korea’s main source of foreign tourists, have still not returned. The abrupt closure raised eyebrows, considering that North Korea’s Kim Jong-un has invested in key tourism facilities in Mount Chilbo, Mount Paektu, Mount Kumgang, and the Wonsan-Kalma resort area in preparation for the post-lockdown rebound in foreign visitors.

“America’s Nuclear Umbrella Is Open and Must Stay Open”

“There’s no alternative to the American deterrent—not for the United States, and not for Europe.”

Note: We wanted to share this excellent analysis and essay by our friend and Scowcroft Group colleague Frank Miller. Frank served for three decades as a senior nuclear policy and arms control official in the Pentagon and on the National Security Council staff and is a principal at the Scowcroft Group. Eric Edelman is a Counselor at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and co-hosts The Bulwark’s Shield of the Republic podcast. He was Under Secretary of Defense for policy from 2005 to 2009 during the George W. Bush presidency.

MANY EUROPEANS ARE BEGINNING to question (some honestly and some self-servingly) whether the United States’ extended nuclear deterrent still provides a shield over its allies. In fairness, this is a time for some transatlantic introspection. That said, it is also a time to be clear-eyed about what can and cannot be accomplished.

First, despite the official statements and pundits’ predictions emanating from Europe, there is no indication that the Trump administration is planning to modify the United States’ more than seventy-year pledge to use our conventional and nuclear forces to defend NATO. In a February 27 press conference, Trump affirmed his support of NATO’s key Article 5, a statement later confirmed to NBC News by a National Security Council official in a written statement that said: “President Trump is committed to NATO and Article V.”

Second, there is no European substitute for the U.S. nuclear umbrella. The independent British deterrent, while committed to NATO and coordinated with U.S. forces in NATO plans, is designed principally to impose unacceptable costs on Russia in response to an attack on Britain—and therefore to deter such an attack. But it has always been assumed that the U.K.’s extended deterrence commitments would be supported by much larger and more flexible U.S. forces. As for France, despite recent, repeated posturing by President Emmanuel Macron that the French nuclear deterrent force can assume the role currently played by the United States, the so-called force de frappe—by design and by doctrine—is, as French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu stated in late February, “French, and it will remain French.” Lecornu has also specifically rejected any pooling of France’s nuclear weapons capability. A strategy of “tearing an arm off the aggressor” may have made sense in the Cold War, when American nuclear forces were always the ultimate backstop (or backup), but such a strategy cannot be a substitute for the U.S. defense commitment under Article 5.

NATO, for over sixty years, has followed a policy of “flexible response,” planning to deter aggression by threatening to respond as the situation requires. NATO’s integrated response plans are developed according to this principle. NATO nations agree on a combined nuclear policy by participating in a variety of NATO forums, especially the Nuclear Planning Group. Some NATO nations have committed their aircraft to carry out wartime missions carrying U.S. nuclear weapons, while those planes (and American ones) are protected by fighters from other NATO states.

From the beginning of its nuclear weapons program, France has refused to take part in coordinated NATO activity involving nuclear weapons policy or planning. (One of the authors of this article was intimately involved in reaching out to the French in this regard for over a decade.) It has disdained joining NATO’s nuclear forums, even as an observer. It is notable, in this regard, that even when France returned to the alliance’s integrated military structure in 2009, it specifically chose not to join the Nuclear Planning Group. Its nuclear doctrine differs dramatically from NATO’s, advertising rigidity rather than flexibility. Even accepting the extremely unlikely hypothetical (for the sake of argument) that French policy would change, it is inconceivable that Paris would share with other allies the burden and risk of its nuclear deterrent, which was entirely predicated on the need to maintain national sovereignty.

Third, the idea that NATO would be strengthened if two or more of its members opted out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty to develop their own nuclear weapons is risible. Opening Pandora’s box to allow proliferation will create global uncertainties, as European proliferation would almost certainly propel proliferation elsewhere: There is a growing discussion in South Korea about restarting its nuclear weapons program, and the greater Middle East could see a proliferation race among several rival powers. A proliferated world, in which the possibility of the actual use of nuclear weapons is dramatically higher, would be extraordinarily dangerous. Even allowing the argument that the new nuclear states themselves might be more secure against direct coercion and aggression, the rest of Europe would be left in the cold. The American nuclear umbrella has been the most effective nonproliferation policy imaginable.

Finally, the idea that the United States should establish a nuclear weapons site in Poland (at the cost of hundreds of millions of dollars) is unlikely to fly with a Trump administration already seeking to cut infrastructure funding. It might even, paradoxically, be more of an accelerant than a deterrent, since it might become a tempting target for Russian pre-emptive strikes in a crisis. If Warsaw desires a nuclear role, it should have some of its pilots join existing NATO dual-capable squadrons.

The answer, however unsatisfactory to those neo-Gaullists seeking to achieve the impossible dream of a French-led Europe, is that every effort must be made to keep the American umbrella in place—and even to strengthen it—in the near term with a nuclear sea-launched cruise missile and in the mid-term with a standoff weapon for NATO’s dual-capable aircraft. If the French are serious about strengthening deterrence rather than virtue signaling about the European dimension of their independent deterrent, they should consider how Paris can practically add to NATO’s collective nuclear deterrent capabilities. A first step would be to join the Nuclear Planning Group, its subordinate bodies, and the alliance’s nuclear planning arrangements.

National Downs Syndrome Day

Today is World Down Syndrome Day! Inclusive health care looks like this: getting the appropriate diagnosis and treatment from a doctor who has experience with your specific needs. For World Down Syndrome Day, and every day, we are elevating medical care for Down Syndrome patients. That is what we do at the Jerome Lejeune Foundation, where I proudly sit on the board of directors:  www.lejeunefoundation.org. Help support these wonderful people by supporting the Jerome Lejeune Foundation!

My late son, Brendan. An inspiration to so many even having left us more than a decade ago.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Bessent Holds First FSOC Meeting, Bowman Gets the Fed Vice Chair Nomination, The SEC Crypto Task Force Meets, and Senate Banking Moves their De-Banking Bill

At last, Washington is taking something of a breather this week.  Both the House and Senate are out this week for “home working sessions” and most regulators have a light schedule (not that any of their heads have been confirmed yet to move on anything). 

Last week, the biggest event was President Trump was the news from an unnamed White House official that President Trump would nominate Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman to be the new Fed Vice Chair for Supervision.   The news was cheered across seemingly all financial sectors (NOTE: We have yet to see any press release or posting by President Trump on Truth Social that he is going to do this).

Meanwhile, the Senate Banking Committee marked up and approved their first major bills of the new legislative session, the FIRM (Financial Integrity and Regulation Management) Act and the Guiding Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act.   The Firm Act will, according to the Committee, “eliminate all references to reputational risk as a measure to determine the safety and soundness of regulated financial institutions.”  The aim is to stop de-banking of clients for political reasons.  But it also raises a lot of questions about what banks and other financial institutions can and cannot do when dealing with truly reputationally damaging clients.  Let’s see if Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) can get it passed by the full Senate.

The GENIUS Act is aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for payment stablecoins.  With so many pieces of legislation now flying around in both chambers dealing with crypto, we will hold back from predicting the ultimate outcome of this bill, too.

Looking at the week ahead, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will convene his firm Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC).  The agenda is still a bit vague, but the Treasury Department press release says the committee will get updates on cybersecurity, the Treasury market, homeowner and natural disaster insurance.

Which begs the question: Who will be attending?  The Senate Banking Committee has yet to schedule confirmation hearings for SEC Chair-nominee Paul Atkins, CFTC-nominee Brian Quintenz, Comptroller-nominee Jonathan Gould, or Federal Reserve Vice Chair-nominee Michelle Bowman.  And nobody has been nominated to chair the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (but they have an acting head in Travis Hill).  This is turning into one of the slowest presidential transitions we can remember in a long time.

Below is what else we are watching in the Washington financial regulatory world this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

• The Senate is in a Pro Forma session with no business scheduled.

House of Representatives

• The House of Representatives is out of session this week.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• The Federal Open Market Committee meeting is being held on Wednesday and Thursday.

U.S. Treasury Department

• Thursday, March 20 – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will preside over a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council. The preliminary agenda for the meeting includes an update on recent Treasury market developments, an update on cybersecurity developments, and an update on homeowners insurance and natural disasters.

Department of Commerce

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Monday, March 17, 12:00 p.m. – Acting SEC Chair Mark Uyeda delivers a keynote speech at the Investment Company Institute’s Investment Management Conference in San Diego, California.

• Friday, March 21, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC’s Crypto Task Force will host a first in a series of roundtables to discuss key areas of interest to the crypto market.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• Tuesday, March 18, 1:30 p.m. – Acting Comptroller of the Currency Rodney Hood gives a speech on bank regulation at the Consumer Bankers Association Live 2025 Conference in Orlando, Florida.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• Sunday – Wednesday, March 16-19 – the Investment Company Institute holds its annual Investment Management Conference in San Diego, California.

• Monday – Wednesday, March 17-19 – The Consumer Bankers Associations’ CBA Live 2025 Conference will be held in Orlando, Florida.

Think Tanks and Other Events

• Wednesday, March 19, 12:00 p.m. – The Exchequer Club of Washington hosts Ben Johnson, Majority Staff Director, and Charla Oertatani, Minority Staff Director, of the House Financial Services Committee.

• Friday, March 21, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion on "Can Sanctions Change a Country's Policy? The Case of China." 

The Global Week Ahead

European Leaders Gather to Discuss European Defense and Security Planning, Trump Gathers Oil CEOs,  US-Russian Shuttle Diplomacy Continues, and the US, Japan, and UK Central Banks Meet on Interest Rates

March 16 - 23, 2025

It is going to be another action-packed week ahead geopolitically.  U.S. and Russian diplomats are expected to talk in an effort to reach a deal securing at least a temporary cease-fire in Ukraine.  Russian President Vladimir Putin seemed to indicate some support for the idea but then pushed back, saying there are a number of issues he still wants addressed.  President Trump late Sunday indicated he expected to talk to Putin later this week, but no set time or date has been set yet.  All in all, we believe negotiations are likely to be protracted.  Meanwhile, Russian forces have ramped up their assault on Ukrainian positions and made considerable gains against Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region of Russia.

European leaders will gather in Brussels for a Euro Summit this week to discuss how to advance a European defense and security agenda in the face of growing trade and defense tensions with the U.S.  An EU White Paper on EU Security is being formally released this week while German legislators will further consider a historic €500 billion defense and infrastructure package.   Europe is at a historic inflection point in facing a challenge to ensure its mutual defense and security and collective economic interests in the face of tough trade tariffs being placed on it by President Trump and ongoing trade tensions with China.

Meanwhile, President Trump will be gathering oil CEOs at the White House on Monday to discuss how to encourage more drilling in the US.  But with oil prices shrinking lately, the CEOs will likely be looking for guidance on economic incentives to help them achieve the President’s goals.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the week ahead, it will be a big week for central banks.  The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Central Bank of Brazil each meet to discuss the state of the economy and decide on interest rates.  This is likely to prove particularly challenging for the Fed as President Trump rapidly ramps up his tariff agenda.   The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are likely to hold steady on rates.

Looking at what else is happening in Asia, China will be releasing a number of important economic reports, including retail sales for the first two months of the year.  The data comes as Beijing has just finished the Two-Session meetings focused on economic recalibration.  Japan will be releasing trade data on Wednesday and CPI data on Friday.

In Europe, Germany’s ZEW survey is out on Tuesday.  But the biggest economic event in Germany will be the ongoing parliamentary debate over the proposed €500 billion defense and infrastructure package.  A deal has been reached between political parties, and the final vote is expected this week.  Also this week, the UK releases labor market figures.

Bringing it back to the U.S., markets are looking at January retail sales numbers on Monday and industrial production figures on Tuesday.   And in Canada, CPI figures are out this week, too.

Below is what else around the world we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, March 16, 2025

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will convene a meeting in Geneva of the two Cypriot leaders and the Guarantor Powers of Greece, Türkiye and the United Kingdom for an informal meeting on Cyprus.

·       The UN  Climate and Clean Air Conference 2025 will begin and run through March 21 in Brasilia, Brazil.  This year’s theme, “Accelerating Action on Super Pollutants: The Road to COP30.”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro will lead anti-government protests.

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro will address a new session of Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       New Zealand PM Christopher Luxon begins a five-day visit to Delhi for the Raisina Dialogue.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraq will observe a national holiday to honor the victims of the 1988 Halabja massacre. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Wholesale Prices (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 17, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). Also, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1701 report (the Israeli-Lebanese border).  In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 1591 Committee (regarding Sudan) as well as a briefing on the 1540 Committee (dealing with nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons).

·       The OECD Global Economic Forecast will be released in Paris, France.

·       The BRICS Tourism Working Group meets in Brazil.

·       There will be a BRICS Rapid Security Channel Meeting.

·       World Bank Global Digital Summit begins in Washington, running until Thursday.

·        There will be a meeting of the Council of the International Seabed Authority in Kingston, Jamaica.

·       Today is St. Patrick’s Day. We hope you are wearing something green to celebrate.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will hold a meeting with oil executives at the White House to discuss energy production in the face of falling prices for crude oil.

·       Supporters of Jair Bolsonaro will hold a mass rally against President Lula da Silva's government in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Housing Starts (February)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (January)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (March)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Business Inventories (January)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (March)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (January)/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Colombia Cement Production (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Senior Chinese official holds briefing on national economic performance of the first two months of 2025.  They will also hold a media briefing on government efforts to boost consumer spending.

·       The Raisina Dialogue begins in New Delhi, India.  The Dialogue is India’s premier conference on geopolitics and geoeconomics.

·       Britain's Net Zero Minister Ed Miliband visits for UK-China Energy Dialogue.

·       The US-ASEAN Business Council holds a media briefing with representatives from U.S. companies, diplomats and government officials as part of an American business delegation visiting the Southeast Asian nation to mark 30 years of U.S.-Vietnam diplomatic relations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (February)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

·       China House Price Index (February)/ Industrial Production (January)-(February)/ Retail Sales (January-February)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (January)-(February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       India WPI Food Index (February)/ WPI Fuel (February)/ WPI Inflation (February)/ WPI Manufacturing (February)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (February)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Services PMI (February)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  EU foreign ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East (focus on Gaza, Syria, and Iran) but will also discuss the increasingly tense relations with the US.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council will meet in Warsaw, Poland through March 18.  Minters will discuss the EU’s energy security architecture, the energy situation in Ukraine, and critical infrastructure.  On the sidelines of the meeting, there will be an informal meeting of EU Transport Ministers in Warsaw, Poland.

·       The Standing with Syria-Brussels 9th Conference will be held in Brussels.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania Kęstutis Budrys, at NATO Headquarters, in Brussels.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin hosts Tajik President Emomali Rahmon for bilateral talks in Moscow.

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will announce details of his welfare reform plan.

·       In Moscow, a preliminary hearing in the trial of ex-deputy defense minister Timur Ivanov accused of embezzlement.

·       Georgia court to deliver verdict in the case of ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili. He has been charged with fraud.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is awarded a  diploma from the Faculty of Law and Political Science of Université Aix-Marseille in Aix-en-Provence, France.

·       Italy Inflation Rate (February)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (January)

·       Romania Current Account (January)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (February)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (January)/ Core Inflation Rate (January)/ Core Inflation Rate (February)/ Current Account (January)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (January)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q1

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

Tuesday, March 18, 2025

Global

·       The UN Human Rights Council will meet to discuss the situation in Venezuela.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chile Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Canada Inflation Rate (February)/ CPI Median (February)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (February)

·       USA Housing Starts (February)/ Building Permits Prel (February)/ Export Prices (February)/ Import Prices (February)/ Redbook (March/15)/ Capacity Utilization (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/14)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

·       Brazil Business Confidence (March)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (January)/ Imports (January)/ ISE Economic Activity (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Defence Technology Summit will be held in Singapore through Friday. The Summit brings together representatives of government, industry, academia and think tanks to exchange views on defense and security developments. High-level delegates from U.S. companies including Oracle, Boeing and Palantir Technologies are set to attend.

·       A U.S. business delegation, including representatives from Amazon, Apple and Boeing, will visit Vietnam through March 20. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia’s Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Sara Hunter will speak at a banking conference in Sydney.

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (January)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (February)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (March/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels to discuss preparations for the March European Council meeting on March 20-21.

·       The German Bundestag (parliament) will vote on second reading of a €500 billion investment plan for defense and economy.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts French President Emmanuel Macron for Ukraine talks in Berlin, Germany.

·       The 5th EU-UK Parliamentary Partnership Assembly will be held in Brussels.

·       Euronext holds its annual conference.

·       The EU Tax Symposium will be held in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Italy Balance of Trade (January)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (January)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March)/ ZEW Current Conditions (March)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (January)

·       Russia PPI (February)

·       Belarus GDP (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Angola will host direct talks between the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Gutteres will meet with Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, Antonio Costa, the President of the European Council, as well as Roberta Metsola, the President of the European Parliament in advance of the Euro Summit on Thursday.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard will travel to Hawaii (where a large National Security Agency office is located), Japan, Thailand, India, and France for meetings with her counterparts.

·       In Bogota, Colombia, unions and citizens march for the non-approval in Congress of the reforms of Gustavo Petro's government.

·       The Mexico City Congress debates initiative to ban bullfighting in the capital.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins two days of meetings to discuss the economy and interest rates

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/14)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (March/14)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/14)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (March/14)/ / Net Long-term TIC Flows (January)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (January)

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q4

·       Argentina Full Year GDP Growth 2024/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Leading Indicator (February)

·       Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan meets to consider interest rates.

·       New Zealand Current Account Q4

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Machinery Orders (January)/Capacity Utilization (January)/ Industrial Production (January)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (February)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (February)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (March)

·       India M3 Money Supply (March/07)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Tripartite Social Summit will be held in Brussels. The main theme of the tripartite social summit will be ‘Bringing Europe back on track in a challenging geopolitical environment as an attractive, competitive and investment friendly location that protects and creates quality jobs.”  The Tripartite Social Summit is a forum for dialogue between the EU institutions at president level and the European social partners at top management level. The summit is co-chaired by the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission. The participating European-level social partners include: BusinessEurope, the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC), SGI Europe (association of enterprises with services of general interest), SMEunited (association of crafts and SMEs in Europe), Eurocadres (council of European professional and managerial staff).  Participants will discuss the following topics: strengthening the EU in a challenging geopolitical environment, bringing Europe back on track as an attractive, competitive and investment friendly location that protects and creates quality jobs.

·       The European Commission will formally release its 2025 White Paper on the Future of European Defense.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at V Observatorio Finanzas in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Frank Elderson gives a  keynote speech at the annual European Financials Conference organized by Morgan Stanley in London, UK.

·       Euro Area CPI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Labour Cost Index Q4/ Wage Growth Q4

·       European Union European Council Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (January)/ Total Credit (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

Thursday, March 20, 2025

Global

·       The BRICS 4th Agriculture Working Group meets in Brazil.

·       The BICCS 2nd meeting Committee of Energy Officials will be held in Brazil.

·       The International Olympic Committee elects a new president to succeed Thomas Bach. Seven candidates vying for the IOC's top job include Japan's Morinari Watanabe, president of the International Gymnastics Federation. World Athletics President Sebastian Coe is also in the running.

·       Today is the Vernal Equinox, the first day of spring in the northern hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       China will launch 100% retaliatory tariffs totaling more than $2.6 billion against Canadian agricultural products.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee announces their interest rate decision followed by a press conference held by Fed Chair Jay Powell.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem gives a speech at the Calgary Economic Development event.

·       Mexico Private Spending Q4

·       Canada PPI (February)/ Raw Materials Prices (February)

·       USA Current Account Q4/ Initial Jobless Claims (March/15)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (March)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (March)/ Philly Fed Employment (March)/ Philly Fed New Orders (March)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (March)/ Existing Home Sales (February)/ CB Leading Index (February)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March/14)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/20)/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/19)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Australia Employment Change (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Participation Rate (February)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (March)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (February)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Euro Summit will be held in Brussels, bringing together leaders from all 27 EU member states to discuss a stronger defense and security agenda as well as President Trump’s tariffs on EU goods and services.

·       The European Council will meet in Brussels.

·       The EU is expected to release an action plan to support Europe's steel sector.

·       Britain's Prince William visits Tallinn, Estonia to meet with British troops deployed as part of NATO's eastern flank reinforcement.

·       Bloomberg holds its Future of Finance Paris 2025 conference in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at the UCC Economics Society's Conference at University College Cork (UCC) in Cork, Ireland.

·       Germany PPI (February)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (February)/ SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       The Bank of England meets to decide on interest rates.

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (January)/ Employment Change (January)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (February)/ Claimant Count Change (February)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (March)

·       Italy Construction Output (January)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (February)/ Employment Growth (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ PPI (February)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (January)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (January)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/14)/ Central Government Debt (February)

·       Serbia Current Account (January)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (February)

·       European Union European Council Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar is expected to travel to London for meetings with Prime Minister Kier Starmer.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (February)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (February)/ Total Credit Growth (February)

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Inflation Expectations (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (January)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, March 21, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East (Gaza).

·       Today is World Downs Syndrome Day. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa and leftist Luisa González debate before the presidential runoff.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the 2nd Biennial Macroeconometric Caribbean Conference organized by the Central Bank of The Bahamas and the Indiana University Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research (CAEPR).

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       USA Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (March/21)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (January)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (February)

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (February)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Operation Freedom Shield – joint US-South Korean military exercises – begin in South Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (February)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Credit Card Spending (February)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (March)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Foreign Bond Investment (March/15)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/15)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Hong Kong Current Account Q4

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/14)

·       China FDI (YTD) (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (March)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (February)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       France Business Confidence (March)/ Business Climate Indicator (March)

·       Euro Area Current Account (January)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (March)

·       Greece Current Account (January)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (March)/ PPI (February)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Italy Current Account (January)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Consumer Confidence Q1

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (February)

·       Slovakia Current Account (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nowruz – the Persian New Year – is observed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Namibia Independence Day. President-elect Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah will be sworn into office, the country's first female president.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, March 22, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Curaçao holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 23, 2025 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentine President Javier Milei will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Israel. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The China Development Forum begins in Beijing, China.  The Forum brings together international business leaders and Chinese officials for meetings through March 24.

·       Pakistan celebrates Republic Day. The government will hold large military parades showing a wide array of weapons, including nuclear capable weapons systems.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania Presidential Election (1st Round)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey's main opposition party, the Republican People's Party, will hold presidential primaries ahead of Turkey's 2028 presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Business Strategy in a New Geopolitical Age, Chile’s Libertarian Presidential Candidate, One Moment and Two Speeches, Data Center Energy Demands, and What is the Mar-a-Lago Accord?

March 14 - 16, 2025

Below are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Business Strategy in an Age of Heightened Geopolitical Risk

• How to Strategize in an Out-of-Control World       MIT Sloan Management Review

  During the past few years, company strategies have been disrupted repeatedly by major shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic, the outbreak of war in Ukraine and the Middle East, and breakthroughs in generative AI. In the first months of 2025, a stream of political surprises has been impacting company agendas — and further upheavals seem likely.   This turbulence is having a real impact on business: Our analysis of nearly 7,000 organizations over a 20-year time frame shows that variance in company profitability can increasingly be attributed to factors that lie beyond the company and its industry. (See “What Shapes Profitability?”) Contextual factors — like geopolitics, technology, and climate — now account for 43% of the variation in the net profit margins of public corporations.

The Indo-Pacific

• Conversations: China’s Naval Flotilla and Australia’s Response    Lowry Institute Podcast

  Defence analyst Marcus Hellyer talks with the Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen about the unprecedented appearance of Chinese warships off Australia’s east coast. What message was Beijing sending? How well did Australia’s defense force perform in response? And what are Australia‘s future options with the United States in retrenchment?

• One Moment, Two Speeches   Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Two weeks ago, the world’s two most powerful countries witnessed a rare moment of symmetry. On March 4th  at 9:00 pm US EST, President Donald Trump strode into the Capitol to give his second administration’s first address to a joint session of Congress. Meanwhile, on the other side of the planet, at 9:00 am Beijing time, Chinese Premier Li Qiang was just finishing up his speech summarizing the annual Government Work Report(GWR) to the National People’s Congress. Both are two countries’ key national annual addresses in which the executive reports on the state of the country to the legislative branch. This side-by-side moment highlights not only major differences in the political systems and political theater, but also some surprising similarities in substance as well.

• Trump-ism and East Asia    Global Policy/Durham University

  Alastair Newton argues that Donald Trump’s abandonment of the US-led international order and efforts to reshape global trade and finance do not bode well for economies in East Asia which may find themselves forced by Washington into a Chinese sphere of influence as part of a grand bargain with Beijing.

Latin America

• The Radical Libertarian Reshaping Chile’s Presidential Race   Americas Quarterly

  He’s been called the “Gabriel Boric of the right”—maybe because, like Chile’s young president, he wears a beard and made a name for himself criticizing the country’s political establishment. But Johannes Maximilian Kaiser Barents-von Hohenhagen, 49, objects to the comparison.“ Kaiser, who proudly describes himself as a “reactionary,” is now taking a turn in the spotlight after a recent poll showed him tied for the lead in October’s presidential election. He is the latest right-wing populist in Latin America to channel widespread frustration with crime, immigration and politics as usual, although his story has some distinctly Chilean twists.

•  Inside a Mexican Cartel ‘Extermination’ Camp: Ovens, Shoes, and Teeth    Washington Post

  For months, the tips had been appearing on a Facebook page. There was a mass grave hidden in a rural village outside Guadalajara, in western Mexico, the messages said. Mexico has grappled for years with a crisis of disappearances, with more than 110,000 people reported missing. Relatives of the disappeared have unearthed hundreds of graves filled with corpses. This seemed like another. But the people who ran the Facebook page — a group in Jalisco state who search for the missing — were puzzled. After getting more anonymous tips, Indira Navarro, head of the group, and dozens of other victims’ relatives arrived on March 5 at an abandoned ranch outside La Estanzuela and started poking around. They dug up three underground ovens. They found hundreds and hundreds of singed bone shards — from skulls, fingers, teeth. It was what Mexicans call an “extermination camp.” But the image that’s really stunned Mexicans was of the shoes. There were piles of them — well over 200. The camp is a sign of how much criminal groups have penetrated the Mexican economy. They don’t just traffic drugs to the United States; they extort businesses, “tax” migrant smugglers, and run vast networks of contraband goods, from gasoline to wood.  Navarro’s group believes the ranch in La Estanzuela was a recruiting and training center for one such crime group. The area is dominated by one of the country’s largest cartels, Jalisco New Generation (CJNG).

American’s View of Currencies

• Cryptocurrency Ownership among U.S. Households     Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  Cryptocurrency has become more prevalent since it first entered the global economy. However, no consistent measurement of cryptocurrency ownership among American households has emerged. This blog post uses what data are available through the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) to estimate the distribution of cryptocurrency ownership in the U.S., finding that roughly 4.3% of Americans held such assets.

• Thoughts for Your Penny?    Hoover Institution

  One of the concepts you come across in a well-taught monetary economics course is the idea of seigniorage. An online dictionary does a pretty decent job of defining it: “The profit made by a government by issuing currency, especially the difference between the face value of coins and their production cost.” Although the definition highlights coins, the concept applies to paper money also.  The US government makes a pretty penny (pun intended) on seigniorage. It’s not as much as it used to be because more and more people use credit cards and even cryptocurrency to buy goods and services. Still, it’s a good amount.  The biggest gain from seigniorage is on the $100 bill. Printing one costs the federal government just 9.4 cents.

  So, when the feds spend this $100, they make a nice profit of $99.90. Not bad. Printing a $1 bill costs the feds 3.2 cents. So even on a $1 bill, the feds make 97 cents.  But minting small coins loses money for the feds. In its 2024 Annual Report, the US Mint reports the cost of producing each coin denomination. The cost of producing a penny was $0.03. In other words, the cost of producing a penny was three times the value of the penny. Interestingly, the feds went underwater even on the nickel, whose cost, at $0.11, was over twice the value of the nickel. That’s why I stated earlier that the federal government should stop producing nickels also. It isn’t until you get to the dime that you find a coin that the feds make money on. Interestingly, the cost of producing a dime, at $0.045, is less than the cost of producing a nickel.

the Race for Critical Minerals and the Growing Electrical Demand for Data Centers

• Who is Paying for all that data center power?   Volts Podcast/Substack

  In this episode, Harvard Law's Eliza Martin and Ari Peskoe unpack how data centers' skyrocketing electricity demand could leave ordinary customers subsidizing Big Tech's power bills. Most chilling is the potential alliance between utilities and tech giants that threatens to derail much-needed utility reforms while entrenching fossil-fueled infrastructure.

• The Potential for Geothermal Energy to Meet Growing Data Center Electricity Demand   Rhodium Group

  Next-generation geothermal energy has a number of advantages in meeting growing electricity demand from data centers. This report estimates how much of this demand could potentially be served by geothermal over the next decade.

• Why the U.S. Keeps Losing to China in the Battle Over Critical Minerals    Wall Street Journal

  The U.S.’s desperate need for critical minerals—which include resources such as nickel, lithium and cobalt in addition to graphite—has been underscored by the Trump administration’s aggressive push for greater access in Ukraine and Greenland, rattling allies. In December, Beijing said it would ban certain mineral exports to the U.S. and conduct stricter reviews of graphite sales, in response to U.S. restrictions on semiconductor exports to China.   Yet with its thumb on many of the best resources, China can dictate prices. Washington’s policy flip-flops keep blowing up miners’ plans. And many Western mining companies struggle to navigate higher-risk countries where critical minerals—all needed for green technologies and national defense—are prevalent, leaving them flat-footed when unrest erupts. 

The Mar-a-Lago Accord: What Is It?  Will It Happen?

• What is the Mar-A-Lago Accord?              Apollo Academy/Apollo Capital Management

  The always brilliant Torsten Slok explains is brilliantly: The US dollar is the global reserve currency because America is the most dynamic economy in the world, and the US provides stability and security. As a result, there is upward pressure on the US dollar because everyone wants to own the world’s safest asset.  This safe-haven upward pressure on the dollar overwhelms the negative impact on the dollar coming from the US current account deficit. With safe asset flows putting constant upward pressure on the dollar, there is a need for a deal—a Mar-a-Lago Accord—to put downward pressure on the US dollar to increase US exports and bring manufacturing jobs back to the US. The Mar-a-Largo Accord is the idea that the US will give the G7, the Middle East, and Latin America security and access to US markets, and in return, these countries agree to intervene to depreciate the US dollar, grow the size of the US manufacturing sector, and solve the US fiscal debt problems by swapping existing US government debt with new US Treasury century bonds. In short, the idea is that the US provides the world with security, and in return, the rest of the world helps push the dollar down in order to grow the US manufacturing sector

•   Meeting in Mar-a-Lago: is a New Currency Deal Plausable?              Atlantic Council

  In 1985, finance ministers from France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States came to an agreement in the Plaza Hotel in New York City to intentionally devalue the US dollar. In the five years leading up to the Plaza Accord, the US dollar had doubled in value, threatening to upend global trade and destabilize the international financial system. Today, Washington is once again chattering about the possibility of a currency deal. This time, the venue may move south for what Trump’s incoming chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Stephen Miran, described as a “Mar-a-Lago Accord.” In a September report, Miran declared the overvaluation of the US dollar responsible for the “roots of economic discontent.”
  

• Mar-a-Lago Accord, Schmar-a-Lago Accord  Steven Kamin/Mark Sobel/Financial Times

  In recent weeks, the buzz has been mounting about a new American plan — a “Mar a Lago Accord” — to upend the global monetary system. We can only hope it remains idle chatter. In brief, based on a detailed discussion paper by CEA Chair nominee Stephen Miran, the accord would have America’s trading partners help weaken the dollar and commit to providing low-cost, long-term financing to the US government, enforced by the threat of higher tariffs or removal of security guarantees.   Intriguingly, there has been no announcement by the Trump administration or even a tweet by Trump, but Miran’s paper — along with various utterances by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent — have led Wall Street observers to believe such an initiative is indeed in the offing. And that’s too bad, because a Mar-a-Lago Accord would be pointless, ineffectual, destabilizing, and only lead to the erosion of the dollar’s pre-eminent role in the global financial system.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Bessent’s Regulatory Pillar, Senate Banking Wants to Re-Write Bank Reputational Risk Guidance, the FDIC Revamps Merger Guidelines, and Trump Says He Will Name a New Fed Vice Chair for Supervision

Major changes to the financial regulatory world continue apace in Washington, and two events this past week stood out.  First, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gave his first major speech laying out his “Three Pillars of the American First Economic Agenda.” Speaking at the New York Economic Club, Bessent said the first pillar would be overhauling financial oversight, making the case that “regulatory overreach of the past few years in pursuit of political agendas has missed material risk, stymied growth, and squashed innovation.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was the second significant change as the FDIC’s board of directors voted to roll back the Biden Administration’s proposed bank merger guidelines.  It was the first major financial deregulatory move of the Trump Administration.  The FDIC also withdrew from pending regulations on brokered deposits, corporate governance, and asset manager’s ownership stakes in banks.

In Congress, Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee (all 13 of them) signed on to legislation offered by Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) aimed at forcing federal banking regulators from using reputational risk as a component of supervision.  The point of the legislation, called the Financial Integrity and Regulation Management Act (FIRM Act), is to combat debanking.  The legislation was hailed by state bank regulators and the crypto industry, which has accused the FDIC and other bank regulators of discouraging banks from offering crypto services.  You can read a summary of the bill HERE.

Crypto had a big week last week with President Trump signing an Executive Order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.  The President followed this up with a first-of-its-kind White House Crypto Summit, bringing together crypto industry leaders.   

 This came as the House Financial Services Committee (HFSC) voted to overturn a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) rule subjecting nonbanks with digital payment platforms to greater scrutiny.   

The HFSC also voted to overturn CFPB rules restricting overdraft fees, something banks have strongly lobbied in favor of repealing.  Both overturned CFPB rules are likely to be passed by the full House but passage in the Senate is far from assured.

While all this was going on, Senate Banking Committee Chair Scott and House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-AK) sent President Trump a letter urging the President to move quickly in naming a new Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision.  Late Sunday, President Trump said he plans to make an announcement naming a new Vice Chair “fairly soon.”

We would also note — as we get many questions from clients — that we still do not know when SEC Chair-nominee Paul Atkins and Comptroller of the Currency-nominee Jonathan Gould will have their Senate confirmation hearings. The answer is we do not know as nothing has yet been scheduled, although we have heard rumors they may happen in the next two weeks.

Looking at the week ahead, the HFSC is holding a hearing on digital payments and the federal framework for payment stablecoins while the Senate Banking Committee is holding a hearing on affordable housing.  There will also be a raft of SEC and CFTC speeches this week as the futures industry holds its big annual conference in Boca Raton, Florida.  

And the Brookings Institution is holding an interesting event looking at how the State of New York regulates the financial sector.  Below is the full list of major events we are keeping our eyes on this week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

• Tuesday, March 11, 2:30 p.m. – The Senate Agriculture Committee holds a hearing entitled “Perspectives from the Field: Risk Management, Credit, and Rural Business Views on the Agricultural Economy Part 3”

• Wednesday, March 12, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Housing Roadblocks: paving a New Way to Address Affordability.”

House of Representatives

• Tuesday, March 11, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled  Navigating the Digital Payments Ecosystem: Examining a Federal Framework for Payment Stablecoins and Consequences of a U.S. Central Bank Digital Currency.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• There are no public events scheduled for Fed Governors this week. They are in their Blackout Period in advance of the March 19th Federal Open Markets Committee meeting.

U.S. Treasury Department

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Monday, March 10, 1:30 p.m. – Acting SEC Chair Mark Uyeda will deliver remarks at the Institute of International Bankers 2025 Annual Washington Conference in Washington, DC.

·       Tuesday, March 11, 4:35 p.m. – SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce and CFTC Commissioner Summer K. Mersinger will participate in a fireside chat during the Global Policy & Regulatory Forum event hosted by the Alternative Investment Management Association in New York

• Thursday, March 13, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• Tuesday, March 11, 9:50 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will speak on a panel titled “The Changing Face of Clearing” at FIA Boca50 in Boca Raton, Florida.

• Tuesday, March 11, 11:10 a.m. – CFTC Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham will deliver a keynote address at the International Futures Industry Conference, FIA BOCA50 in Boca Raton, Florida.

• Tuesday, March 11, 11:25 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will speak on an international regulator panel at the International Futures Industry Conference 2025 in Boca Raton, Florida.

• Tuesday, March 11, 4:35 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Summer K. Mersinger and SEC Commissioner Hester M. Peirce will participate in a fireside chat during the Global Policy & Regulatory Forum event hosted by the Alternative Investment Management Association in New York.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• Monday, March 10, 10:00 a.m. – Acting FDIC Chair Travis Hill will speak at the Institute for International Bankers 2025 Washington Conference.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• Monday, March 10, 2:00 p.m. – Acting Comptroller of the Currency Rodney Hood speaks on bank supervision at the Institute for International Bankers 2025 Annual Washington Conference.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

• Thursday, March 13, 10:00 a.m. – The FCA Board meets.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

• Wednesday, March 12, 10:00 a.m. – The FCIA Board meets.  The agenda includes payment from Allocated Insurance Reserve Accounts, a policy statement concerning contracting, the Report on Biennial Liquidity Assistance Exercise, the Annual Report on Contracts, and the Annual Report on Whistleblower Activity.

Small Business Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations Events

Trade Associations

• March 9 – 12 – the Futures Industry Association holds their Boca50 Conference in Boca Raton, Florida.

• March 10 – 11 – The Institute for International Bankers holds its 2025 Annual Washington Conference.

• March 11 – The Alternative Investment Management Association (AIMA) holds its Global & Regulatory Forum 2025 in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

• Tuesday, March 11, 11:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold a hybrid event entitled “How New York is regulating financial services.”  New York Superintendent of Financial Services Adriene Harris will participate in a fireside chat.

• Thursday, March 13, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a webcast entitled “The role of capital markets in emerging-market growth.”

Recommended Reads

• Why Italy is attracting so many bank merger proposals     OMFIF

• Large Bank Capital: There is More to Inflation Than the Price of Goods and Services  Financial Services Forum

• The Effect of Primary Dealer Constraints on Intermediation in the Treasury Market   Federal Reserve Bank of Boston