Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis, as well as book recommendations, travel observations, and cultural experiences - all of which we hope will be of interest to you.

Francis Kelly 1/20/25 Francis Kelly 1/20/25

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

The New Trump Presidency Begins, A Week Without (for the most part) Any Regulatory Heads, Senate Banking Committee Agenda Unveiled, and A New Joint Subcommittee on Crypto

It is a historic day today as President Donald Trump is sworn in as the 47th president at Noon. An extraordinary political comeback will be capped, and with it will come a Republican House and Senate with an aggressive agenda on financial regulatory issues, taxes, and trade.

We would note, as many of you already have figured out, that for the most part, all the major financial regulatory heads have stepped down or are about to step down in advance of President Trump being sworn into office: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, SEC Chair Gary Gensler, FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg, OCC Acting Head Michael Hsu, and CFTC Chair Rostin Benham. By our count, the only financial regulatory trying to stick around is Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra (and we do not think that will last long once President Trump takes office – we will see).

So, it will be a very quiet week regulatory-wise this coming week. As a matter of fact, regulatory quiet will last for a number of weeks (even months) ahead as President-elect Trump has yet to nominate any regulators aside from SEC Chair-designate Paul Atkins. We are surprised as Trump was moving faster than any newly elected president in putting forth nominations for cabinet and subcabinet officials. For reasons we are not entirely clear on, the nomination machine has slowed considerably in recent weeks – and knowing how slowly the Senate can and likely will move on confirmations of nominations, it could be months before we see new regulatory heads in place.

Meanwhile, the new Chair of the Senate Banking Committee, Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), released his Priorities for the 119th Congress. You can read them HERE. Additionally, Scott is apparently in talks with House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-AK) about forming some sort of joint working subcommittee on crypto. We would think that could be an exciting accelerant to setting up at least a basic regulatory framework for crypto, helping boost the sector among investors.

Below is what else we are watching in the Washington financial regulatory world this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

House of Representatives

· Wednesday, January 22, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds its 119th congressional organizational meeting.

· Wednesday, January 22, 10:00 a.m. – The House Ways and Means Committee holds a hearing on "Matters Within the Committee's Tax Jurisdiction."

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time. And there are no Governor speeches scheduled as the Fed is in its regular “blackout period” in advance of the January 29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Monday, January 20, 6:05 p.m. Switzerland) – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will participate in a fireside chat with the CEO of the Global Blockchain Business Council (GBBC), Sandra Ro, at GBBC Blockchain Central 2025 in Davos, Switzerland on innovation, artificial intelligence, and emerging developments in financial markets.

· Tuesday, January 21, 11:35 a.m. Switzerland) – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will provide remarks virtually at the Global Blockchain Business Council’s 8th Annual Blockchain Central Davos 2025.

· Friday, January 24, 12:15 p.m. Central Time – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will deliver a keynote address followed by a Q&A moderated by Professor William Birdthistle at the University of Chicago Law School. The conversation will explore the issues confronting federal financial regulators at this moment of transition from one presidential administration to another, including artificial intelligence, advances in technology and other notable developments in financial markets.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Tuesday, January 21, 11:00 a.m. – SIFMA will hold a virtual “State of the Industry” briefing for members.

· Friday, January 24, 12:30 p.m. – The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will hold a policy forum on Friday, January 24, in Washington, DC, entitled "A Nation of Homeowners: How Tax Reform Can Boost the American Dream" in Washington, D.C.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Francis Kelly 1/19/25 Francis Kelly 1/19/25

The Global Week Ahead

Donald Trump Returns to Power, The World Economic Forum Convenes in Davos, Rubio Calls A Meeting of the Quad, and Japan’s Prime Minister Gives His First Major Policy Speech

January 19 - 26, 2025

Monday will be a historic day in the United States as Donald Trump is sworn in as the 47th President of the United States for the second time. The world seems to be holding its collective breath, waiting to see what President Trump will do right out of the box after being sworn in. At this point in time, we know he will sign and issue more than 100 Executive Orders that will cover issues ranging from moving on his promised wide-ranging tariff regime, declaring a state of emergency on the US-Mexican border, loosening oil and gas oil permitting immediately, giving a 90-day extension to TikTok from being forced to shut down, to moving on his vow to begin rounding up illegal aliens and deporting them.

The incoming Trump Administration is not wasting any time on the national security and geopolitical front, with incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio (who is expected to be confirmed by the Senate and sworn into office on Monday) convening a meeting Tuesday of the Quad – the foreign ministers of Japan, Australia, India, and the US – in Washington to talk about next steps for the mutual security group. This is seen as a strongly positive signal by the incoming Trump Administration that they intend to maintain the Biden security policies in the Indo-Pacific and ramp it up.

We also note that Trump spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday. The call reportedly covered the future of TikTok, trade, and Fentanyl trafficking. We also hear Trump telling aides that he wants to visit China for meetings with Xi this year.

Also happening this week is the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The mega-event runs for four days (January 20 – 24), and this year, a large number of foreign leaders will be speaking (and President Trump will address the group virtually). You can see the full agenda and list of speakers HERE.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the big reports markets are watching are going to be in Asia. The Bank of Japan meets on interest rates on Friday, while China will be setting its Loan Prime Rate, although the market consensus at this point is that it will remain unchanged.

In Europe, the Eurogroup (all EU finance ministers plus European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde) will meet to discuss global and EU economic conditions. Also, in the EU this week, Germany and France released manufacturing reports, while the UK labor market report is out on Tuesday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, January 19, 2025

Global

· Today is the Orthodox Christian Feast of the Epiphany.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President-elect Trump will hold a rally in Washington, D.C, in advance of his inauguration (tomorrow). He will also participate in a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 20, 2025

Global

· The World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland and runs through January 24. More than 2,500 people are expected to attend. You can see the full agenda HERE.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East (Gaza). UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President-elect Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States. Once he takes the oath, Trump is expected to sign and issue more than 100 Executive Orders – including one declaring a state of emergency on the Mexican border.

· Argentina’s President Javier Milei will be in Washington, D.C., to attend the Trump Inauguration.

· It is Martin Luther King Day, a federal holiday. Financial markets are closed in the US.

· Ecuador presidential candidates will debate ahead of the upcoming election on February 9.

· In Panama City, Panama, the trial begins for Panama ex-presidents Ricardo Martinelli and Juan Carlos Varela, accused of money laundering with Brazilian group Odebrecht.

· In Tapachula, Mexico, a migrant caravan is expected to depart southern Mexico ahead of Donald Trump taking office as US president.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey

· Argentina Balance of Trade (December)/ Leading Indicator (December)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Hong Kong, Chinese property developer Country Garden faces a liquidation hearing days after it reported delayed financial results for 2023 that showed a $24 billion loss.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Machinery Orders (November)/ Capacity Utilization (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Tertiary Industry Index (November)

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (January)/ FDI (YTD) (December)

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. The President of the Eurogroup will invite ministers to engage in a strategic political discussion on the euro area's key policy priorities and the Eurogroup's role in addressing them. This will include discussions about innovations in wholesale payments and the digital Euro.

· Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov chairs government meeting in Moscow on Russians living abroad. The Putin government has been working to find new ways to exert greater control of Russians abroad.

· German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock hosts press conference with Lithuania counterpart Kestutis Budrys to discuss mutual and regional security concerns.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany PPI (December)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (December)

· Greece Current Account (November)

· Italy Construction Output (November)

· Euro Area Construction Output (November)

· Russia Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account Q4/ PPI (December)

· Slovakia Current Account (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

· Spain Consumer Confidence (December)

· Turkey Central Government Debt (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Unemployment Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Tuesday, January 21, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Countering terrorism in Africa.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Foreign ministers from the Quad Nations – Australia, India, Japan, and the US – will meet in Washington to discuss regional security issues and will be chaired by incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The meeting shows an early emphasis on strengthening regional partnerships that outgoing President Joe Biden championed to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific, despite Biden and Trump’s vastly different world views.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Retail Sales (November)

· Canada Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI Median (December)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (December)

· USA Redbook (January/18)

· Colombia Balance of Trade (November)/ Imports (November)/ ISE Economic Activity (November)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea's Constitutional Court holds hearings on Tuesday and Thursday in the impeachment trial of embattled President Yoon Suk Yeol. Last week, Yoon became the first sitting president in South Korean history to be arrested, but he is still fighting all charges and refusing to attend court hearings.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kazakhstan PPI (December)

· New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (December)/ Services NZ PSI (December)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (December)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (January/21)

· Taiwan Export Orders (December)

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council (EU Finance Ministers and ECB Board members) meets in Brussels. They will discuss the situation in Ukraine, the EU economic governance framework and the 2025 Alert Mechanism Report and the draft Council recommendation on the economic policy of the euro area.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Education ministers through January 22.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen addresses the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

· Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubayev in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Union New Car Registrations (December)

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (November)/ Employment Change (November)/ Claimant Count Change (December)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (December)

· Slovenia PPI (December)

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January)

· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January)/ ZEW Current Conditions (January)

· Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (December)

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (December)

· Israel Inflation Expectations (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (November)/ Mining Production (November)

· Angola Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, January 22, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on Haiti followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/17)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (January/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/17)/ CB Leading Index (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/17)

· Canada PPI (December)/ Raw Materials Prices (December)

· Argentina Retail Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (January)

· New Zealand Inflation Rate Q4

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (December)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (December)

· India M3 Money Supply (January/10)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with French President Emmanual Macron in Paris for bilateral talks. The meeting will also mark the 1963 Elysee Treaty of Friendship between the two countries.

· Ireland’s parliament will meet to elect a new three-way coalition government.

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov chairs the council dedicated to the 'protection of rights of citizens living abroad.”

· Germany CDU Leader Friedrich Merz on Germany's gives a keynote speech in Berlin on foreign and European policy priorities.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in the Stakeholder Dialogue 'Beyond Crisis: Unlocking Europe's Potential' during World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

· Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (December)

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (December)/ Employment Growth (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ PPI (December)

· Ireland Residential Property Prices (November)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

· Slovenia Unemployment Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (November)

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (December)/ Total Credit Growth (December)

· Jordan Industrial Production (November)

· Oman Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (December)/ Retail Sales (November)

Thursday, January 23, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organizations (League of Arab States). In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In Canada, today is the deadline for the Liberal Party to announce its candidacy in the leadership vote on March 9, following current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (January)/

· Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (January/18)/ EIA Natural Gas/ Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stocks Change (January/17)/ EIA Distillate Fuel Production & Stocks Change (January/17)/ EIA Gasoline Production/ Heating Oil Stocks/ Refinery Crude Runs Change (January/17)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/22)

· Argentina Economic Activity (November)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India holds local elections in a number of cities.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (November)

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January/18)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/18)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (December)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (December)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England External member of the Monetary Policy Committee Carolyn Wilkins gives a speech at Fitch Ratings entitled “Geopolitics and financial stability: a plan beats no plan” in London.

· Netherlands Consumer Confidence (January)

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (January)/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (January)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/17)

· Hungary Gross Wage (November)

· France Business Confidence (January)/ Business Climate Indicator (January)

· Poland Retail Sales (December)

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

· Great Britain CBI Business Optimism Index Q1/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (January)

· Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (November)/ Building Permits (November)

Friday, January 24, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In Washington, D.C., the Smithsonian’s National Zoo puts the giant pandas Bao Li and Qing Bao on public display at their renovated habitat on Asia Trail.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (January)

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (January)/ New Housing Price Index (December)/ Manufacturing Sales (December)

· Chile PPI (December)

· Mexico Economic Activity (November)

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Existing Home Sales (December)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Final (January)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (January)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Final (January)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (January)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/24)

· Paraguay PPI (December)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto visits India as it celebrates Republic Day, and the two countries mark 75 years of diplomatic relations. The Indonesian leader has embarked on a whirlwind of overseas tours since taking office in October.

· Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivers his first policy address at the start of a new parliamentary session. Ishiba is expected to announce Japan's biggest-ever budget bill, with debate expected over possible changes to income tax rates.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia S&P Global Australia PMI Flash (January)

· Japan Inflation Rate (December)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and Quarterly Outlook Report

· Singapore URA Property Index Q4/ Industrial Production (December)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (December)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Index (November)

· Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q4

· India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/17)

· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Unification Day in Romania, celebrating when, in 1859, the two Romanian principalities of “Moldavia” and “Wallachia” came together to form the “Union of Romanian Principalities.”

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a panel discussion "The effects of central bank digital currencies" at the 13th Institute for Law and Finance Conference on the Future of the Financial Sector "Bank Disintermediation – Causes and Consequences" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (December)

· Spain PPI (December)

· France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ CBI Distributive Trades (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Composite Economic Index (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)

Saturday, January 25, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Greece holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 26, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday celebrating the country’s constitution coming into force in 1950. There will be a large military parade through New Delhi.

· Today is Australia Day, a national holiday commemorating the landing of The First Fleet in 1788 led by Captain Arthur Phillip, who later became the British colony’s first governor.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Belarus holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 1/17/25 Francis Kelly 1/17/25

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

Cabinet Nominees Confirmation Hearings All Week, Will Next Week Be the Week Trump Nominates All the Regulators? And the FDIC Chair and CFTC Chairs Sing Their Swan Songs

Washington is bracing for big changes this week before President-elect Trump is sworn into office next Monday. Congress gets busy with committee organizational meetings this week as the US Senate holds confirmation hearings for most of Trump’s nominees (the full hearing schedule is below). We expect the Senate to move quickly on a number of the nominations, with the strong likelihood that Treasury Secretary-nominee Scott Bessent and Secretary of State-nominee Marco Rubio will be confirmed and ready to be sworn in on Inauguration Day.

Subcommittee assignments were announced this past week in both the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee. Of note is that the Senate Banking Committee Chair, Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), is creating a new Digital Assets Subcommittee, and Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) is going to chair it. Recall that Lummis’ home state of Wyoming has arguably been the leading state pushing for crypto for consumer payments.

Over on the House side, Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-AK) is apparently considering creating a new working group on monetary policy, which would appear to be something of a “shadow” oversight group looking at Federal Reserve Board monetary policy – this will be one to watch closely.

Meanwhile, this being the final week of the Biden Administration, most regulators are cleaning out their offices and packing up. FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg will be at the Brookings Institution, giving his thoughts and reflections on his long tenure at the agency and the three financial crises he had dealt with. Let’s see if and how he addresses the ultimate crisis that will likely define his two-decade tenure at the agency: The allowance of a widespread culture of sexual harassment and other misconduct at the agency under his leadership. Gruenberg announced seven months ago he would resign because of the scandal, but not until a replacement was confirmed. He changed his mind after Trump was elected, and now Vice Chair Travis Hill will step in as acting chair. While Hill has not been nominated for the chair, he is giving a speech this week, during which he will likely lay out an interim agenda.

Gruenberg is not the only one giving a final goodbye talk this week: CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at the CfC St. Moritz 2025 Conference in Switzerland. The conference – for institutional investors, family offices, and large funds – should be quite interesting, nicely nestled in the spectacular snow-covered Alps.

Finally, we are picking up chatter from the Trump Transition team that President-elect Trump may announce his picks for the top regulatory spots. So far, he has only named Paul Atkins for SEC Chair. More on that as we learn it.

Below is what else we are watching in the Washington financial regulatory world this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

Thursday, January 16, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on the nomination of Eric Scott Turner to be Secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

House of Representatives

Tuesday, January 14, 10:00 a.m. – The House Ways and Means Committee holds a meeting to organize for the 119th Congress. They will then hold a hearing entitled “The Need to Make Permanent the Trump Tax Cuts for Working Families.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

Thursday, January 16, 8:30 a.m. – Acting Housing and Urban Development Department Secretary Adrianne Todman delivers remarks at the National League of Cities Summit which is entitled “The Moment for Housing is Now.”

Securities and Exchange Commission

Thursday, January 16, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

Wednesday, January 15, 1:30 p.m. (CET/Switzerland) – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at the CfC St. Moritz 2025 Conference.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

Tuesday, January 14, 2:00 p.m. – FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg will speak at the Brookings Institution at an event entitled “FDIC Chairman Gruenberg on 3 financial crises and lessons for the future.”

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

Thursday, January 16, 10:00 a.m. – The Board of the National Credit Union Administration will hold a meeting. The agenda includes a review of the NCUA’s 2025 Annual Performance Plan.

FINRA

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

Wednesday, January 16, 1:00 p.m. – The FTC holds a Closed Meeting.

Farm Credit Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

Tuesday, January 14, 11:00 a.m. – The Urban Institute's Housing Finance Policy Center holds a virtual discussion on "Recapitalizing the GSEs (government-sponsored enterprises) through Administrative Action: Economics and Budgetary Implications."

Think Tanks and Other Events

Tuesday, January 14, 2:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on "3 Financial Crises and Lessons for the Future," FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg will speak.
Wednesday, January 15, Noon – The Exchequer Club of Washington hosts Senate Banking Committee Chair Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) to speak.
Thursday, January 16, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion on "Should We Care About Who Owns Audit Firms?" This event was rescheduled from January 9th.
Thursday, January 16, 12:00 p.m. – The National Economists Club holds a luncheon discussion on "Grappling With the Nation's Fiscal Challenges: The 2025 Outlook," focusing on "the deficit, debt limit, and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act."

******

Trump Cabinet Confirmation Hearings Schedule

Tuesday, January 14th

Senate Armed Services Committee: Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense
Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee: Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Interior
Senate Committee on Veterans Affairs: Doug Collins, Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Wednesday, January 15th

Senate Agriculture Committee: Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Agriculture
Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee: Chris Wright, Secretary of Energy
Senate Judiciary Committee: Pam Bondi, Attorney General
Senate Environment and Public Works Committee: Lee Zeldin, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (this could be moved to Thursday, 1/16)
Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Marco Rubio, Secretary of State
Senate Intelligence Committee: John Ratcliffe, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency
Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs (Morning): Kristi Noem, Homeland Security Secretary
Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs (Afternoon): Russell Vought, Office of Management and Budget Director

Thursday, January 16th

Senate Finance Committee: Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury
Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Elise Stefanik, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations

Monday, January 27th

DATE TO BE CONFIRMED: Senate Finance Committee: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services

Francis Kelly 1/12/25 Francis Kelly 1/12/25

The Global Week Ahead

The Trump Cabinet Nominees Get Confirmation Hearings, Iran’s President Meets With Russian President Putin While Germany, France, and UK Meet With Iran Over Their Nuclear Program, And Earnings Season in the US Kicks Off

The geopolitical and geoeconomic radar screens will be full this coming week. This is the last week of the Biden Administration with the U.S. Presidential Inauguration, one week from Monday. The U.S. Congress is already moving quickly on many fronts in advance of the incoming Trump Administration, as almost all of President-elect Trump’s cabinet nominees will have their confirmation hearings held this week. The hearings will give markets a richer sense of many of Trump’s policy proposals – how they will be carried out by the respective nominees, cost, timelines, etc.

We are anticipating fairly quick action on a number of them and the very real possibility that Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary-designate Scott Bessent will be confirmed by Inauguration Day, allowing them to be sworn into office the same day President Trump (which is the historical norm).

Outside the U.S. this week, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian travels to Moscow this week for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and to sign a new comprehensive cooperation agreement. The agreement includes a new North-South Corridor, which allows for greater trade and energy cooperation between the two countries.

While this is going on, diplomats from France, Germany, and the UK will meet with Iranian diplomats in Geneva, Switzerland, to again try to persuade Iran from further enriching uranium that could be used in nuclear weapons. The three European countries were signatories to the 2015 nuclear pact (along with the US, Russia, and China), which President Trump exited in 2018. It is unlikely Iran will agree, especially with President Trump coming back into office and the face of the multiple foreign policy and military setbacks Tehran has suffered in recent months (the massive degrading of their proxy militias Hamas and Hezbollah and the fall of Syrian strongman and Iranian ally Bashar al-Assad and his regime.

In Asia, Japan’s Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya will be conducting important meetings in South Korea, the Philippines, and the Island nation of Palau, seeking mutual security arrangements as China gets more active and aggressive in the region.

Turning the busy global economic agenda this week, in the US markets – in their first full trading week of the New Year – are looking at the CPI release on Wednesday, the PPI print on Thursday, and the Fed’s publishing of the Beige Book in advance of the Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting on January 29. Also out this week are the retail sales report and industrial production data. All this comes as corporate earnings season kicks off in the US.

Staying in the Americas, we would also note that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will be announcing a major new public-private sector plan to boost investment in Mexico. Markets are looking for details of the plan to get a sense of the newly inaugurated Sheinbaum’s overall economic policy focus.

Looking at Europe, the European Central Bank releases its account of the last interest meeting. The UK has CPI, PPI, and RPI reports coming on Wednesday.

Finally, looking at Asia, China has all-important trade data released on Monday and Q4 GDP figures on Friday, while Japan also releases trade data and bank lending information.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, January 12, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· First launch of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket from Cape Canaveral, Florida.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Peru Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves concludes a two-day visit to Beijing to participate in the first UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue since 2019. Accompanying Reeves will be a business delegation along with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. The goal of the meetings is to increase Chinese investment in the UK and facilitate easier UK investment in China.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Croatia holds its presidential runoff election. Incumbent President Zoran Milanović is due to face rival Dragan Primorac.

· Germany’s Green Party officially launches its election campaign with Robert Habeck.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Comoros holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Monday, January 13, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (the situation in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Joe Biden gives farewell foreign policy speech at the State Department in Washington, D.C.

· Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is expected to unveil a new public-private sector plan to help grow investment in Mexico.

· In Peru, Prosecutors summon President Dina Boluarte to testify about her nose surgery (why did she keep it secret, and did she violate the law by not officially notifying the appropriate authorities that she was being put under for the surgery).

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Car Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (December)

· USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)/ Monthly Budget Statement (December)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (December)

· El Salvador PPI (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya travels to Seoul, South Korea for bilateral meetings to discuss trade and security issues. From there, he will travel to the Philippines and the Island nation of Palau.

· Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. The meeting comes less than two weeks ahead of Belarus’ presidential elections on January 26.

· The Secretary General of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Hiroshi Moriyama, will travel to Beijing for meetings with senior Chinese officials.

· In Pakistan, Ex-prime minister Imran Khan expected to be sentenced in graft case.

· The Asian Financial Forum begins in Hong Kong and runs through Tuesday.

· In Japan, today is “Coming of Age Day”, a national holiday that encourages those who have recently entered adulthood to become self-reliant members of Japanese society.

· In India, today is the first day of Kumbh Mela (Pitcher Festival) – the world’s biggest festival with an expected 450 million participants. Today Hindu holy men carrying swords and tridents will lead millions of devotees into the icy waters of the rivers Ganga, Yamuna and Saraswati during the first Shahi Snan (royal bath) in the northern city of Prayagraj. The event is held every 12 years.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Building Permits (November)

· Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (December)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (December)

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Vehicle Sales (December)/ New Yuan Loans (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (December)/ Total Social Financing (December)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (November)

· India Inflation Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Defence Ministers from Germany, France, Italy and Britain visit Poland for talks on the situation in Ukraine.

· NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, exchanges with members of the European Parliament (MEPS) serving on the Committee on Foreign Affairs.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ireland Construction PMI (December)

· Euro Area ECB Lane Speech

· Turkey Current Account (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Auto Production (December)/ Auto Sales (December)

· Slovakia Construction Output (November)

· Greece Inflation Rate (December)

· Romania Current Account (November)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (December)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (December)

· Poland Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account (November)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iran holds talks with France, Germany, and the UK in Geneva to discuss Iran’s uranium enrichment program.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Mozambique swears in its new parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Current Account Q3

· Angola Wholesale Prices (November)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP).

· Today is the Orthodox Christian New Year.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. Senate begins the confirmation process for Defense Secretary-nominee Pete Hegseth, Interior Secretary-nominee Doug Burgum, and Veterans Affairs Secretary-nominee Doug Collins.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives opening remarks before 4th Annual "An Economy That Works for All: Housing Affordability" event.

· Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook before the Central Exchange.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (December)/ PPI (December)/RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (January)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/10)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya visits the Philippines. The visit is aimed to strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries at a time when the Philippines is facing increasingly tense relations and stand-offs in the South China Sea with China.

· South Korea’s Constitutional Court will hold its first hearing on the future of President Yoon Suk Yeol after he was impeached in early December.

· The National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultive Conference’s (CPPCC) Shanghai Committee hosts opening session of 3rd plenary in Shanghai.

· Sri Lanka President Anura Kumara Dissanayake visits Beijing for bilateral meetings. It is Dissanayake’s first official visit to China and he is expected to discuss strengthening relations and Sri Lanka’s debt treatment.

· Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin visits Vietnam for bilateral meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino gives remarks at a meeting of local leaders in Kanagawa, Japan.

· New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q4/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q4

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (January)/ Building Permits (November)/ Private House Approvals (November)

· Japan Current Account (November)/ Bank Lending (December)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (December)/ BoJ Himino Speech

· India WPI Food Index (December)/ WPI Fuel (December)/ WPI Inflation (December)/ WPI Manufacturing (December)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (December)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Finland hosts a Security summit for NATO countries bordering Baltic Sea. This comes in the wake of several subsea cables being deliberately cut by Russia.

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov holds annual press conference in Moscow.

· French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou delivers general policy statement to Members of Parliament. Bayrou is currently negotiating a tough budget deal with parliament.

· Today is Novy God (Russian New Year).

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the joint ECB/BoF/HKMA conference on "Europe, Asia and the Changing Global Economy" in Hong Kong.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the Financial Stability Law Forum in Zurich, Switzerland.

· Netherlands Inflation Rate (December)

· Romania Inflation Rate (December)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (December)

· Euro Area ECB Lane Speech

· France Budget Balance (November)

· Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

· Italy Industrial Production (November)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ M1 Money Supply (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, January 15, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote in the morning linked to Libyan sanctions. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

· OPEC publishes its monthly Oil Markets Report.

· The International Energy Agency publishes its monthly Oil Markets Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Senate holds confirmation hearings for Brooke Rollins to be Secretary of Agriculture, Chris Wright to be Secretary of Energy, Pam Bondi to be Attorney General, Lee Zeldin to be Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Marco Rubio to be Secretary of State, John Ratcliffe to be Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Kristi Noem to be Homeland Security Secretary and Russell Vought to be Director of the Office of Management and Budget Director

· NASA's Blue Ghost lunar lander launches from Cape Canaveral, Florida. The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will carry the lander.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Maryland Chamber of Commerce "Meet the State 2025: Making Maryland More Competitive" event.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari gives welcome remarks and participates in fireside chat before virtual Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 2025 Regional Economic Conditions Conference.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the Connecticut Business and Industry Association (CBIA) Economic Summit and Outlook 2025.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks before virtual Wisconsin Bankers Association Midwest Economic Forecast Forum.

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (October)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/10)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/10)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI (December)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (January)/EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (January/10)/NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Beige Book

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (November)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (November)/ Wholesale Sales (November)

· Brazil Business Confidence (January)

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Bangladesh’s interim government is receiving a number of recommendations from reform commissions created to review the electoral system, judiciary, and policy.

· Japanese company ispace launches second uncrewed moon mission from Merritt Island.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Import & Export Prices (December)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (January)/ Machine Tool Orders (December)

· Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Loan Growth (December)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (January)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (November)

· India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

· Kazakhstan GDP (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO military chiefs hold regular meetings in Brussels. The agenda includes a discussion of the Euro-Atlantic and the war in Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat at the Global Macro conference of Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the 15th Spain Investors Day 2025 in Madrid, Spain.

· Bank of England Executive Director Nathanaël Benjamin gives a speech at TheCityUK entitled “The future of stress testing.”

· Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor gives a speech at Leeds Univeristy entitled “Inflation Dynamics and Outlook.”

· EU Industrial Production (November)

· Netherlands Balance of Trade (November)

· Germany Wholesale Prices (December)/ Full Year GDP Growth 2025

· Romania Industrial Production (November)

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI Output & Input (December)/ Retail Price Index (December)

· Hungary Construction Output (November)

· France Inflation Rate (December)/ IEA Oil Market Report

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (December)

· Spain Inflation Rate (December)

· Poland Inflation Rate (December)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (November)

· Serbia Building Permits (November)

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

· Turkey Budget Balance (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Rate (December)

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Mozambique President-elect Daniel Chapo is sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Food Inflation (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

Thursday, January 16, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations in the morning on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

· UN Secretary-General António Guterres will hold a press conference outlining his priorities for 2025.

· The International Energy Agency publishes its report on nuclear power.

· The International Labor Organization releases its report on World Employment and Social Outlook, Trends 2025.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. Senate Finance Committee holds a confirmation hearing for U.S. Secretary of Treasury-nominee Scott Bessent while the Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds a confirmation hearing for Elise Stefanik to be US Ambassador to the United Nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (November)

· Canada Housing Starts (December)/ BoC Gravelle Speech

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (January/11)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Import & Export Prices (December)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/10)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/16)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/15)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vanuatu holds snap parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Food Inflation (December)

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Japan PPI (December)

· Australia Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ Participation Rate (December)

· Sri Lanka Services PMI (December)/ Manufacturing PMI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visits Moscow for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Swedish counterpart Ulf Kristersson, press conference follows. Later, the German Social Democratic Party officially launches its electoral campaign with Scholz as its candidate.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank publishes the Monetary Policy Meeting Account from the last interest rate meeting.

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (December)/ GDP (November)/ Goods Trade Balance (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Construction Output (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ BoE Credit Conditions Survey/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (December)

· Netherlands Unemployment Rate (December)

· Germany Inflation Rate (December)

· Italy Balance of Trade (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (November)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (December)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/10)

· Serbia Current Account (November)

· Belarus Industrial Production (December)

· Poland Core Inflation Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision (January)

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q3

· Jordan Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Friday, January 17, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council Military Staff Committee holds a meeting in New York. The role of the Committee – which is a subsidiary of the Security Council – is to “advise and assist the Security Council on all questions relating to the Council’s military requirements for the maintenance of international peace and security.” They are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza as well as various ongoing UN peacekeeping efforts around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (November)

· USA Housing Starts (December)/ Capacity Utilization (December)/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/17)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (November)/ Foreign Bond Investment (November)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (November)

· Colombia Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India’s largest car show kicks off in New Delphi. India is the third largest auto market.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (December)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/11)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/11)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

· China House Price Index (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)

· Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision/ Business Confidence Q4/ Industrial Production (December)

· Hong Kong Business Confidence Q1

· India Bank Loan Growth (January/03)/ Deposit Growth (January/03)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/10)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a virtual keynote lecture at the Crypto Asset Lab conference 2025 organized by the University of Milano-Bicocca.

· Great Britain Retail Sales (December)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (December)

· Euro Area Current Account (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI Final (December)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

· Spain Balance of Trade (November)

· Germany Bundesbank Nagel Speech

· Italy Current Account (November)

· Belarus GDP (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana PPI (December)

Saturday, January 18, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Retreat will begin in Langkawi, Malaysia and runs through January 19.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 19, 2025

Global

· Today is the Orthodox Christian Feast of the Epiphany.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President-elect Trump will hold a rally in Washington, D.C, in advance of his inauguration (tomorrow).

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 1/10/25 Francis Kelly 1/10/25

Trump Cabinet Confirmation Hearings Schedule

Following up on our note yesterday of upcoming Senate confirmation hearings for Trump nominees, here is the schedule as it currently stands. Note these hearings are subject to change and several are to be confirmed. We will be updating this schedule if there are any changes. Please let us know if you have any questions.

Tuesday, January 14th

Senate Armed Services Committee: Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense
Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee: Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Interior
Senate Committee on Veterans Affairs: Doug Collins, Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Wednesday, January 15th

Senate Agriculture Committee: Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Agriculture
Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee: Chris Wright, Secretary of Energy
Senate Judiciary Committee: Pam Bondi, Attorney General
Senate Environment and Public Works Committee: Lee Zeldin, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (this could be moved to Thursday, 1/16)
Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Marco Rubio, Secretary of State
Senate Intelligence Committee: John Ratcliffe, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency
Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs (Morning): Kristi Noem, Homeland Security Secretary
Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs (Afternoon): Russell Vought, Office of Management and Budget Director

Thursday, January 16th

Senate Finance Committee: Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury
Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Elise Stefanik, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations

Monday, January 27th

DATE TO BE CONFIRMED: Senate Finance Committee: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services

Francis Kelly 1/9/25 Francis Kelly 1/9/25

Here Come the Confirmation Hearings

Next Week Most of President-elect Trump's Cabinet Picks Get Their Senate Confirmation Hearings – But Will They Tell Markets Anything on Policy?

The Presidential Inauguration is 13 days away, but the new Congress is up and running. The first order of business for the new Senate Republican majority - aside from its ongoing wrestling match with President-elect Trump on how to proceed on renewing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (Trump's 2017 Trump tax bill), moving border security legislation and the 2025 budget (one Reconciliation bill or two?) – is successfully conducting the confirmation hearings of Trump's cabinet selections. The schedule from the respective Senate committees for those hearings is now out (see the hearing schedule below).

At this point, we believe most - if not all - of the President-elect's nominees will ultimately be confirmed (although we are expecting serious opposition to several of the nominees, including Defense Secretary-nominee Pete Hegseth and Director of National Intelligence nominee Tulsi Gabbard.) But this set of confirmation hearings is likely to be uniquely important to markets as they will shed significant light on, we believe, two major factors for the next two years:

How coordinated are Trump's nominees with the President-elect on policy issues? Are they helping to set the policy agenda for their respective agencies with Trump and the incoming White House team, or are they simply executing policies the President himself alone truly sets? And – putting aside President-elect Trump's massive and wide-reaching commentary on policy issues either verbally or by tweet, which policy issues will actually be the primary focus of the respective departments and agencies, and which look to be secondary or tertiary? And how will the nominees actually carry them out?
Now that Republicans control the Senate, just how compliant and deferential will Senate Republicans be to President Trump on his major policy proposals? Our view is, based on our conversations and observations, that while Republicans will do their utmost to show a strongly unified front in showing their support for President Trump and his policy agenda, careful listening to the hearings may show pressure points – even tiny cracks. What we see and hear from Republican Senators and staff behind closed doors about many of Trump's policies publicly is not the same as what they say publicly. Three examples:

Tariffs: What will Treasury Secretary-nominee Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary-nominee Howard Lutnick, and State Department-nominee Marco Rubio say in response to a likely barrage of questions about Trump’s much-discussed tariff regime? How will they explain – in more detail than Trump has done – how it will work, when will it be implemented, and their views on retaliatory tariffs on US goods and services?
Mass-Deportation: Despite all the talk of mass deportations, we are starting to hear businesses weighing in (carefully, quietly) that mass deportations would, in fact, hurt the economy. Many small businesses simply need the workforce illegal immigrants have provided them, and mass deportations will damage their businesses and, ultimately, economic growth. Will we get a sense of Republican Senators trying to navigate this issue in the confirmation hearings of Homeland Security Secretary-nominee Kristi Noel, Attorney General-nominee Pam Bondi, and Office of Management and Budget-nominee Russell Voight (who will likely be asked how it will be paid for)?
Greenland/Canada/Panama Canal: What does Secretary of State-nominee Marco Rubio say to questions around Trump's statements of wanting to buy Greenland, making Canada the 51st state, and possibly using the military to take back the Panama Canal? What does Defense Secretary-nominee Pete Hegseth say in response to questions about the use of the military in Panama (as President-elect Trump has suggested), and doesn’t Congress have to authorize the use of troops?

Once we get through these hearings, the next step will be each of the nominees being approved by the respective committees and then having their nominations reported to the full Senate for approval. How that goes depends largely on the confirmation hearings. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) can only lose three Republicans on a nomination or risk defeat for a nominee.

We would also note that Thune is gaming out which cabinet nominees he can actually get confirmed on Inaugural Day (January 20) and sworn immediately into office. Top of that list is Marco Rubio and Scott Bessent.

Normally, confirmation hearings are tightly scripted, and nominees are well-prepared to avoid getting into policy debates. These will not be "normal" hearings, and this is not going to be a normal presidential administration. Our view is markets should plan to pay closer attention to the confirmation hearings that most impact the sectors they are focused on.

Tuesday, January 14th

Senate Armed Services Committee: Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense
Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee: Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Interior
Senate Committee on Veterans Affairs: Doug Collins, Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Wednesday, January 15th

Senate Agriculture Committee: Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Agriculture
Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee: Chris Wright, Secretary of Energy
Senate Judiciary Committee: Pam Bondi, Attorney General
Senate Environment and Public Works Committee: Lee Zeldin, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (Possibly Thursday, 1/16)
Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Marco Rubio, Secretary of State
Senate Intelligence Committee: John Ratcliffe, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency
Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs (Morning): Kristi Noem, Homeland Security Secretary
Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs (Afternoon): Russell Vought, Office of Management and Budget Director

Thursday, January 16th

Senate Finance Committee: Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury
Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Elise Stefanik, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations

Monday, January 27th

Senate Finance Committee: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (Not Confirmed)

Francis Kelly 1/6/25 Francis Kelly 1/6/25

The Global Week Ahead

The US Congress Certifies the 2024 Election, Venezuela’s Opposition Leader Meets with Hemispheric Leaders, and Canadian PM Trudeau Resigns

January 5 - 12, 2025

We regret the late arrival of this week's Reg Week Ahead. Technical issues prevented us from publishing on our normal schedule. We have updated it to incorporate Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement today.

We hope you all had a wonderful New Year holiday. The world returns to work this week following the holidays, and a lot is happening. First, the US Congress convened in a joint session on Monday to certify the election of President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance. The event was relatively quick – about an hour and a half – and much different than four years ago when riots broke out around and inside the Capitol.

The new Congress was sworn into office last Friday and is busy getting to work. We would note that Congress's schedule will be quite different this year as the US Senate has adopted a calendar for working five days a week and going for ten straight weeks without a break. That is quite a change of pace for the Senate, which has worked three days a week for as long as we can remember, allowing members to return home Friday through Monday to meet with constituents. The market should expect a lot of action in Congress this year at an unrelenting pace.

Also this week, Venezuela’s exiled opposition leader, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, will continue a series of meetings throughout the Hemisphere with leaders to bolster support for his victory last July in the presidential elections. Gonzalez will meet President Biden in Washington and then go to Panama, the Dominican Republic. He recently met with Argentine President Javier Milei. Meanwhile, Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, who by most independent accounts clearly stole the election in July, will be sworn in for a third term in office this coming Friday.

Finally, we would note that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned from office early Monday morning. Having served for nine years as Prime Minister, he faced low approval numbers and internal party dissent that led to the resignation of his Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, Chrystia Freeland. Freeland is now considered a leading contender to be elected the new leader of the Liberal Party before elections in late October.

Looking at the global radar screen, this week's economic reporting schedule is relatively light. In the US, markets will be looking at the US jobs report that will be coming out on Friday. Also out in the US, this week will be the ISM services index on Tuesday and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report on Friday. And last but certainly not least, the Fed releases meeting minutes.

In Asia, China will release inflation data, official PMI prints, and the Caixin services PMI. In Japan, wage data is out this week, and Bank of Japan regional branch managers are meeting to discuss wage growth.

Moving to Europe, CPI reports will be released for the Eurozone, France, Germany, and Italy. The European Central Bank’s consumer expectations survey will also be released on Tuesday.

Below is our weekly report of everything we are watching worldwide this coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

Sunday, January 5, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 6, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Congress holds a joint session to certify the 2024 Presidential elections.

· Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to resign.

· President Joe Biden is expected to host a meeting with Venezuelan opposition leader Emundo Gonzalez Urratia at the White House.

· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul in Seoul, South Korea. Blinken will also travel to Tokyo, Paris, and Rome.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Financial Stability” at the Seventh Conference on Law and Macroeconomics being held in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (December)

· Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· USA S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Factory Orders (November)/ Total Vehicle Sales (December)

· Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (December)

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (December)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Netherlands Business Confidence (December)/ Retail Sales (November)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (November)

· Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

· France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Hesse CPI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (December)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (December)/ Business Confidence (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ M2 Money Supply (November)

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (December)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (December)

· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (December)

· Ghana S&P Global PMI (December)

Tuesday, January 7, 2025

Global

· Eastern Orthodox Christians celebrate Christmas today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Greater Raleigh Chamber Economic Forecast: Launch 2025.

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (December)/ PPI (November)

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

· Canada Fed Barkin Speech/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Ivey PMI s.a (December)

· USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Redbook (January/04)/ ISM Services PMI/ Business Activity/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices (December)/ JOLTs Job Openings (November)/ JOLTs Job Quits (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/03)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (December)

· Colombia PPI (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan’s military holds combat readiness training sessions.

· Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will host Singapore Prime Minister Lawerence Wong for bilateral talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Building Permits (November)/ Private House Approvals (November)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (December)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

· India Fiscal Year GDP Growth Prel 2025-24

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (January/07)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (December)/ Halifax House Price Index (December)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (December)

· Netherlands Inflation Rate (December)

· Hungary PPI (November)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (December)

· France Inflation Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (December)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ CPI Flash (December)

· Germany HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (December)/ Bavaria CPI (December)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

· Spain Business Confidence (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· For the first time in 13 years, Qatar Airways will resume flights to Damascus and Aleppo, Syria.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (December)

· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (December)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Israel M1 Money Supply (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits Congo.

· Ghana’s President-elect John Mahama is sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Current Account Q3

Wednesday, January 8, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council meets on the situation in Syria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Paris.

· Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia visits the Dominican Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Lectures of the Governors Event in Paris, France.

· Chile Inflation Rate (December)

· Brazil Industrial Production (November)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/03)/ ADP Employment Change (December)/ Fed Waller Speech/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/04)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/03)/ FOMC Minutes/ Consumer Credit Change (November)/ Used Car Prices (December)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (December)

· Argentina Industrial Production (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (November)

· Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (November)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

· Japan Consumer Confidence (December)

· Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Services PMI (December)

· India M3 Money Supply (December/27)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Conservative top candidate for chancellor Friedrich Merz holds a speech on the final day of the CSU annual meeting in Seeon, Germany.

· Electronic Travel Authorization (ETA) scheme starts in UK for non-Europeans.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Netherlands Household Consumption (November)

· Germany Factory Orders (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

· Romania Unemployment Rate (November)

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ Current Account (November)

· Euro Area Consumer Confidence Final (December)/ Economic Sentiment (December)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)/ Industrial Sentiment (December)/ PPI (November)/ Selling Price Expectations (December)/ Services Sentiment (December)

· Great Britain BBA Mortgage Rate (December)

· Ireland Unemployment Rate (December)

· Serbia PPI (December)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Lebanon’s Parliament will hold a session to try and elect a new president.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ ABSA Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Tanzania Interest Rate Decision/ Inflation Rate (December)

· Angola Wholesale Prices (November)

Thursday, January 9, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today the US federal government is closed in memoriam for former President Jimmy Carter. A funeral service will be held today at the National Cathedral in Washington, D.C.

· Following former President Jimmy Carter’s funeral service, President Joe Biden will fly to Rome for meetings with Pope Francis as well as with Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

· Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia visits Panama.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will give a speech entitled “Reflections on 2024: Monetary Policy, Economic Performance, and Lessons for Banking Regulation” at te California Bankers Association 2025 Bank Presidents Seminar.

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks on "Right Now, It's Putting One Foot in Front of the Other" before the National Association of Corporate Directors New Jersey Chapter Economic Forecast 2025.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Virginia Bankers Association/Virginia Chamber of Commerce Financial Forecast.

· Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook before the Economic Club of Kansas City.

· Brazil Retail Sales (November)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (December)/ Auto Exports & Production (December)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (December)/Wholesale Inventories (November)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/09/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/08)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (December)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (November)/ Overtime Pay (November)/ Foreign Bond Investment (December/28)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/28)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/04)

· Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (December)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (December)/ Car Sales (December)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Elon Musk will hold a conversation with Germany’s far-right AfD's leader Alice Weidel on X.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the University of Edinburgh.

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Brandenburg CPI (December)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (December)/ Saxony CPI (December)

· Romania Balance of Trade (November)/ PPI (November)

· Hungary Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

· Euro Area Retail Sales (November)

· Greece Balance of Trade (November)

· Ireland Industrial Production (November)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/03)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani visits Iran for bilateral talks.

· Foreign Ministers from US, France, Britain, Germany and Italy meet on Syria in Rome.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits Chad.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Manufacturing Production (November)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (December)

Friday, January 10, 2025

Global

· The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) update on global temperatures.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro will be sworn into office for a third term. Maduro is widely seen as having stolen the election and has imprisoned thousands of opposition figures since the election in July.

· President-elect Donald Trump is scheduled to be sentenced over cover-up of hush-money paid to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.

· The US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in the challenge to the federal ban on TikTok.

· First launch of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket.

· The Detroit Auto Show begins and runs through January 20.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Inflation Rate (December)/ Car Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (December)

· Mexico Industrial Production (November)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ Participation Rate (December)/ Building Permits (November)

· USA Non-Farm/ Government/ Manufacturing Payrolls (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Participation Rate (December)/ Average Hourly Earnings/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (January) / Michigan Current Conditions (January) / Michigan Consumer & Inflation Expectations (January) / WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/10)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Household Spending (November)/ Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Economic Index (November)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (October)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (November)

· Malaysia Unemployment Rate (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ Consumer Confidence (December)

· India Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/03)

· Kazakhstan PPI (December)

· China New Yuan Loans (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (December)/ Total Social Financing (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· First flight by Pakistan national carrier departs for EU after four-year ban.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Netherlands Manufacturing Production (November)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (December)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Final Q3/ Retail Sales (November)

· Turkey Industrial Production (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)

· France Industrial Production (November)/ Household Consumption (November)

· Spain Industrial Production (November)

· Italy Retail Sales (November)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (November)

· Greece Industrial Production (November)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Belarus Inflation Rate (December)

· Germany Current Account (November)

· Ireland Retail Sales (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (November)

· Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Ethiopia Stock Exchange launches operations.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate (December)

· Ghana Inflation Rate (December)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (December)

Saturday, January 11, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Kosrae Constitution Day, commemorating when the island nation instituted its constitution.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The German Social Democratic Party (SPD) congress to officially sign off on their candidate for chancellor ahead of the election.

· The German Far-right AfD party holds their party congress on their election program.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 12, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Peru Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Croatia holds its presidential runoff election. Incumbent President Zoran Milanović is due to face rival Dragan Primorac.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Comoros holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Francis Kelly 1/6/25 Francis Kelly 1/6/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Congress Certifies Election Results, Fed Vice Chair Barr Steps Down, The Federal Government Is Closed Thursday for the National Day of Mourning for former President Carter

January 6 - 10, 2025

We regret the late arrival of this week's Reg Week Ahead. Technical issues prevented us from publishing on our normal schedule. We have updated it to incorporate Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr's resignation announcement today.

Washington (kind of) roars back to life this week with the new Congress sworn in and President-elect Trump continuing his record pace of nominations. We said "kind of" because Washington got hit Monday with the biggest snowstorm we have seen in years, closing all schools and the federal government. Nonetheless, Congress is gathering to certify the presidential election results.

Also, the week will be truncated with the funeral of former President Jimmy Carter. He will lie in state in the Capitol Rotunda until his funeral at 10:00 a.m. at the Washington National Cathedral. All living presidents have been invited, and President Biden will give a eulogy.

Looking at the regulatory week ahead, the big news of the day is Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr's announcement this morning that he will step down from the Vice Chair role but stay on (for now) as a Fed Governor. Speculation has already begun regarding who will replace Barr, primarily focused on current Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and former FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams.

Also, this week, we have officially entered the retrospective phase of the Biden Administration's regulatory world, and the Brookings Institution seems to be the place to go to do that – particularly this Wednesday. At 11 a.m. CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam will deliver remarks and participate in a fireside chat, "Commodity derivatives regulation: Where do we go from here?". Then, at 2:00 p.m., FTC Chair Lina Kahn sits for a fireside chat on the future of the FTC (and perhaps her plans – is she staying or going?).

We also expect President-elect Trump to make several regulatory nominations this week. So far, he has only nominated Paul Atkins for SEC Chair. We are also expecting him to fill out the nominations for the top jobs at Treasury under Treasury Secretary-nominee Scott Bessent.

Below is a listing of other events we are monitoring this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

There are no hearings of significance scheduled this week.

House of Representatives

There are no hearings of significance scheduled this week.
Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Saturday, January 4, 5:30 p.m. – Federal Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on monetary policy at the 2025 Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting, San Francisco, California.

· Sunday, January 5, 1:15 p.m. – San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly will give a speech and participate on a panel discussing the Ben Bernanke’s contributions to economics at the 2025 Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting in San Francisco, California.

· Monday, January 6, 9:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Financial Stability” at the Seventh Conference on Law and Macroeconomics being held in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

· Thursday, January 9 – The Federal Government (and Federal Reserve) will be closed due to the national day of mourning for the death of former President Jimmy Carter.

· Thursday, January 9 – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will give a speech entitled “Reflections on 2024: Monetary Policy, Economic Performance, and Lessons for Banking Regulation” at te California Bankers Association 2025 Bank Presidents Seminar.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Wednesday, January 8, 3:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

· Friday, January 10, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Wednesday, January 8, 11:00 a.m. – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will deliver remarks and participate in a fireside chat, “Commodity derivatives regulation: Where do we go from here?” at the Brookings Institution.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Wednesday, January 8, 2:00 p.m. – FTC Chair Lina Kahn will participate in a fireside chat at the Brookings Institution.

Farm Credit Administration Wagner Labor Initiative in New York.

· Wednesday, January 8, 10:00 a.m. – The Farm Credit Administration will hold a board meeting. The agenda includes an update on Farm Credit System Funding Conditions.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Thursday, January 9, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics will hold an event entitled “Should we care about who owns audit firms?”

· Thursday, January 9, 12:00 p.m. – The Economic Club of Washington, D.C. holds a discussion with Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Fulcrum Perspectives

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

The Global Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

The Global Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

Trump Cabinet Confirmation Hearings Schedule

Here Come the Confirmation Hearings

The Global Week Ahead

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

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