Fulcrum Perspectives
An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis, as well as book recommendations, travel observations, and cultural experiences - all of which we hope will be of interest to you.
Recommended Weekend Reads
Buying Greenland and Growing Arctic Security Risks, US Industrial Policy Toward Semiconductors Is Winning, and Demographic Decline in the US and Around the World
Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend. And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.
Buying Greenland & Increasing Arctic Security Risk
Everything you need to know about Trump’s Greenland gambit Atlantic Council
President-elect Trump is plotting an Arctic acquisition. As he prepares to take office on January 20, President-elect Donald Trump is already stirring up a transatlantic tempest with his overtures to acquire Greenland. Denmark has repeatedly said its strategically located island territory is not for sale, but Trump on Tuesday continued to push the issue—including threatening tariffs on Denmark. The icy dispute raises several burning questions. Atlantic Council experts have the answers.
Why Donald Trump wants Greenland: The Arctic Island has long been vital to US Security and its importance is only increasing Financial Times
When Trump first expressed interest in buying Greenland in 2019, he framed it as like “a large real estate deal” and emphasized the economic aspects of prising it away from Denmark. This time, his focus has changed. “We need Greenland for national security purposes,” he said on Tuesday, while mentioning the need to deter Russian and Chinese ships.
China-Russia Relations in the Arctic: What the Northern Limits of Their Partnership? Rand Corporation
To what extent might China and Russia form partnerships in the Arctic region, and what factors might limit the development of their relationship? Although the United States has had Russia as a maritime neighbor in the Arctic since 1867, the growing presence of China in the region as a Russian partner has led to a rare situation in which two competitive — and potentially hostile — states are in very close proximity to North America. In this paper, the authors evaluate Russia's and China's activities in the Arctic and these activities' implications for nations with Arctic interests. The authors consider China's decades-long interest in the Arctic, its growing and possible future economic activities, and the existing and proposed collaborations that Beijing has sought with Arctic countries to realize its goals.
Even in the face of widening Western sanctions, Russia managed to increase Arctic transit cargo by almost 50 percent over 2023. Its main Arctic shipping lane, the Northern Sea Route, recorded 97 transits carrying close to 3m tons of cargo; both figures surpassing previous highs. Total cargo volume along the route, including transits and traffic originating in Russia, stands at around 40m tons in 2024. Trade between Russia and China continues to dominate cargo flows, accounting for 2.9m tons or 95% of all transit traffic. Officials of the two countries met this week to discuss plans to further boost Arctic shipping.
‘Ice Sheet Conservation’ and International Discord: Governing (potential) Glacial Geoengineering in Antarctica International Affairs/Chatham House
There is a growing chance of collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, one of the planetary climate tipping points at greatest risk of being crossed. Such a collapse would subject the world to an increase of several meters in average global sea-level rise over just a few centuries. In this context, there is an academic debate about the potential of supporting glacial stability through artificial infrastructures such as an undersea ‘curtain’. However, this ‘ice sheet conservation’ would come with significant yet unforeseeable technical and environmental risks. Moreover, in this debate, governance risks have been either neglected or understated. We argue that the proposed infrastructures could negatively implicate the ‘peaceful purposes only’ obligation enshrined in the Antarctic Treaty. By affecting contentious areas of Antarctic geopolitics, such as authority, sovereignty and security, there is a significant risk that the project would make the Antarctic ‘the scene or object of international discord’.
Industrial Policy & the Race for Semiconductor Dominance
Industrial Policy through the CHIPS and Science Act: A Preliminary ReportPeterson Institute for International Economics
The 2022 CHIPS and Science Act appears likely to sharply boost the production of advanced semiconductors in the US, reducing the risk of future shortages but leaving America reliant on imported chips. The jobs created will come at notable costs. Some of the key takeaways of the report include: An estimated 93,000 temporary construction jobs and 43,000 permanent jobs will be created, at an average subsidy cost of $185,000 per job, per year—about twice the average annual salary of US semiconductor employees. Lawmakers deliberating the act did not publicly consider alternative ways of spending $200 billion to ensure adequate chip supplies. Additional subsidies will probably be needed to achieve the goal of producing 20 percent of global leading-edge logic chips in the US by 2030.
America’s bet on industrial policy starts to pay off for semiconductors The Economist (January 9, 2025)
In the final days of Joe Biden’s presidency, most parts of his administration are winding down. Not so the top brass in the Department of Commerce: on an almost daily basis, they are signing giant funding contracts with chipmakers, racing to dole out cash before Donald Trump enters the White House. When all is said and done, they will have awarded nearly $40bn to semiconductor makers in little more than a year—arguably the biggest single bet on industrial policy by the government in decades, and one that could end up as Mr. Biden’s most lasting economic legacy. The rush to disburse cash has invited questions about whether the funding commitments—the cornerstone of the chips and Science Act, passed in 2022—are at risk under Mr. Trump. On the campaign trail, he called chips a “bad” deal, saying the government could have just slapped tariffs on imported semiconductors. At the end of the day, Trump is unlikely to reverse the chip subsidies - but will he reinforce them?
Rationales for Industrial Policy in the Semiconductor IndustryIntereconomics
In recent years, private and public investments in the semiconductor industry have surged worldwide. In the European Union alone, a government subsidy package of €43 billion is under negotiation, while in the United States and East Asia, state support amounts to multiples of that figure. Economists view this subsidy race critically, as it could potentially lead to market distortions and inefficient allocations. In Germany, the substantial subsidies for new factories by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) and Intel are also the subjects of heated debate. Despite these concerns and the traditional reservations among economists against industrial policy in general, there are compelling reasons for pursuing such an industrial policy approach, particularly in the European semiconductor industry—provided the economic and political contexts are understood and the policy is well executed.
The Global Demographic Decline
The Demographic Outlook: 2025 to 2055 Congressional Budget Office
In CBO’s projections, the rate of population growth generally slows over the next 30 years, from an average of 0.4 percent a year between 2025 and 2035 to an average of 0.1 percent a year between 2036 and 2055. Net immigration becomes an increasingly important source of population growth. Without immigration, the population would shrink beginning in 2033, in part because fertility rates are projected to remain too low for a generation to replace itself.
Comparing Life Expectancies Across the Pacific Rim Visual Capitalist/Hindrich Foundation
Trade and economic growth have boosted life expectancy by improving access to healthcare and nutrition. Efficient resource allocation through trade improves living standards, and economic growth from trade raises income and tax revenues, enabling more government investment in public health and social programs. Based on the findings of the 2024 Hinrich-IMD Sustainable Trade Index, Visual Capitalist illustrates how major trading economies like Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore enjoy higher living standards and longer lives.
Dependency and depopulation? Confronting the consequences of a new demographic reality McKinsey Global Institute
Falling fertility rates are propelling major economies toward population collapse in this century. Two-thirds of humanity lives in countries with fertility below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per family. By 2100, populations in some major economies will fall by 20 to 50 percent, based on UN projections. Consumers and workers will be older and increasingly in the developing world. Seniors will account for one-quarter of global consumption by 2050, double their share in 1997. Developing countries will provide a growing share of global labor supply and of consumption, making their productivity and prosperity vital for global growth.The current calculus of economies cannot support existing income and retirement norms—something must give. In first wave countries across advanced economies and China, GDP per capita growth could slow by 0.4 percent annually on average from 2023 to 2050, and up to 0.8 percent in some countries, unless productivity growth increases by two to four times or people work one to five hours more per week. Retirement systems might need to channel as much as 50 percent of labor income to fund a 1.5-time increase in the gap between the aggregate consumption and income of seniors. Later wave countries, take note.
U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead
Cabinet Nominees Confirmation Hearings All Week, Will Next Week Be the Week Trump Nominates All the Regulators? And the FDIC Chair and CFTC Chairs Sing Their Swan Songs
Washington is bracing for big changes this week before President-elect Trump is sworn into office next Monday. Congress gets busy with committee organizational meetings this week as the US Senate holds confirmation hearings for most of Trump’s nominees (the full hearing schedule is below). We expect the Senate to move quickly on a number of the nominations, with the strong likelihood that Treasury Secretary-nominee Scott Bessent and Secretary of State-nominee Marco Rubio will be confirmed and ready to be sworn in on Inauguration Day.
Subcommittee assignments were announced this past week in both the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee. Of note is that the Senate Banking Committee Chair, Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), is creating a new Digital Assets Subcommittee, and Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) is going to chair it. Recall that Lummis’ home state of Wyoming has arguably been the leading state pushing for crypto for consumer payments.
Over on the House side, Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-AK) is apparently considering creating a new working group on monetary policy, which would appear to be something of a “shadow” oversight group looking at Federal Reserve Board monetary policy – this will be one to watch closely.
Meanwhile, this being the final week of the Biden Administration, most regulators are cleaning out their offices and packing up. FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg will be at the Brookings Institution, giving his thoughts and reflections on his long tenure at the agency and the three financial crises he had dealt with. Let’s see if and how he addresses the ultimate crisis that will likely define his two-decade tenure at the agency: The allowance of a widespread culture of sexual harassment and other misconduct at the agency under his leadership. Gruenberg announced seven months ago he would resign because of the scandal, but not until a replacement was confirmed. He changed his mind after Trump was elected, and now Vice Chair Travis Hill will step in as acting chair. While Hill has not been nominated for the chair, he is giving a speech this week, during which he will likely lay out an interim agenda.
Gruenberg is not the only one giving a final goodbye talk this week: CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at the CfC St. Moritz 2025 Conference in Switzerland. The conference – for institutional investors, family offices, and large funds – should be quite interesting, nicely nestled in the spectacular snow-covered Alps.
Finally, we are picking up chatter from the Trump Transition team that President-elect Trump may announce his picks for the top regulatory spots. So far, he has only named Paul Atkins for SEC Chair. More on that as we learn it.
Below is what else we are watching in the Washington financial regulatory world this coming week:
U.S. Congressional Hearings
U.S. Senate
Thursday, January 16, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on the nomination of Eric Scott Turner to be Secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
House of Representatives
Tuesday, January 14, 10:00 a.m. – The House Ways and Means Committee holds a meeting to organize for the 119th Congress. They will then hold a hearing entitled “The Need to Make Permanent the Trump Tax Cuts for Working Families.”
Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
U.S. Treasury Department
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Commerce
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
Thursday, January 16, 8:30 a.m. – Acting Housing and Urban Development Department Secretary Adrianne Todman delivers remarks at the National League of Cities Summit which is entitled “The Moment for Housing is Now.”
Securities and Exchange Commission
Thursday, January 16, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
Wednesday, January 15, 1:30 p.m. (CET/Switzerland) – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at the CfC St. Moritz 2025 Conference.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
Tuesday, January 14, 2:00 p.m. – FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg will speak at the Brookings Institution at an event entitled “FDIC Chairman Gruenberg on 3 financial crises and lessons for the future.”
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
National Credit Union Administration
Thursday, January 16, 10:00 a.m. – The Board of the National Credit Union Administration will hold a meeting. The agenda includes a review of the NCUA’s 2025 Annual Performance Plan.
FINRA
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division
Wednesday, January 16, 1:00 p.m. – The FTC holds a Closed Meeting.
Farm Credit Administration
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit Insurance Corporation
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Small Business Administration
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
International Monetary Fund & World Bank
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
North American Securities Administrators Association
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Trade Associations & Think Tank Events
Trade Associations
Tuesday, January 14, 11:00 a.m. – The Urban Institute's Housing Finance Policy Center holds a virtual discussion on "Recapitalizing the GSEs (government-sponsored enterprises) through Administrative Action: Economics and Budgetary Implications."
Think Tanks and Other Events
Tuesday, January 14, 2:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on "3 Financial Crises and Lessons for the Future," FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg will speak.
Wednesday, January 15, Noon – The Exchequer Club of Washington hosts Senate Banking Committee Chair Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) to speak.
Thursday, January 16, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion on "Should We Care About Who Owns Audit Firms?" This event was rescheduled from January 9th.
Thursday, January 16, 12:00 p.m. – The National Economists Club holds a luncheon discussion on "Grappling With the Nation's Fiscal Challenges: The 2025 Outlook," focusing on "the deficit, debt limit, and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act."
******
Trump Cabinet Confirmation Hearings Schedule
Tuesday, January 14th
Senate Armed Services Committee: Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense
Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee: Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Interior
Senate Committee on Veterans Affairs: Doug Collins, Secretary of Veterans Affairs
Wednesday, January 15th
Senate Agriculture Committee: Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Agriculture
Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee: Chris Wright, Secretary of Energy
Senate Judiciary Committee: Pam Bondi, Attorney General
Senate Environment and Public Works Committee: Lee Zeldin, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (this could be moved to Thursday, 1/16)
Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Marco Rubio, Secretary of State
Senate Intelligence Committee: John Ratcliffe, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency
Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs (Morning): Kristi Noem, Homeland Security Secretary
Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs (Afternoon): Russell Vought, Office of Management and Budget Director
Thursday, January 16th
Senate Finance Committee: Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury
Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Elise Stefanik, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
Monday, January 27th
DATE TO BE CONFIRMED: Senate Finance Committee: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services
The Global Week Ahead
The Trump Cabinet Nominees Get Confirmation Hearings, Iran’s President Meets With Russian President Putin While Germany, France, and UK Meet With Iran Over Their Nuclear Program, And Earnings Season in the US Kicks Off
The geopolitical and geoeconomic radar screens will be full this coming week. This is the last week of the Biden Administration with the U.S. Presidential Inauguration, one week from Monday. The U.S. Congress is already moving quickly on many fronts in advance of the incoming Trump Administration, as almost all of President-elect Trump’s cabinet nominees will have their confirmation hearings held this week. The hearings will give markets a richer sense of many of Trump’s policy proposals – how they will be carried out by the respective nominees, cost, timelines, etc.
We are anticipating fairly quick action on a number of them and the very real possibility that Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary-designate Scott Bessent will be confirmed by Inauguration Day, allowing them to be sworn into office the same day President Trump (which is the historical norm).
Outside the U.S. this week, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian travels to Moscow this week for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and to sign a new comprehensive cooperation agreement. The agreement includes a new North-South Corridor, which allows for greater trade and energy cooperation between the two countries.
While this is going on, diplomats from France, Germany, and the UK will meet with Iranian diplomats in Geneva, Switzerland, to again try to persuade Iran from further enriching uranium that could be used in nuclear weapons. The three European countries were signatories to the 2015 nuclear pact (along with the US, Russia, and China), which President Trump exited in 2018. It is unlikely Iran will agree, especially with President Trump coming back into office and the face of the multiple foreign policy and military setbacks Tehran has suffered in recent months (the massive degrading of their proxy militias Hamas and Hezbollah and the fall of Syrian strongman and Iranian ally Bashar al-Assad and his regime.
In Asia, Japan’s Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya will be conducting important meetings in South Korea, the Philippines, and the Island nation of Palau, seeking mutual security arrangements as China gets more active and aggressive in the region.
Turning the busy global economic agenda this week, in the US markets – in their first full trading week of the New Year – are looking at the CPI release on Wednesday, the PPI print on Thursday, and the Fed’s publishing of the Beige Book in advance of the Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting on January 29. Also out this week are the retail sales report and industrial production data. All this comes as corporate earnings season kicks off in the US.
Staying in the Americas, we would also note that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will be announcing a major new public-private sector plan to boost investment in Mexico. Markets are looking for details of the plan to get a sense of the newly inaugurated Sheinbaum’s overall economic policy focus.
Looking at Europe, the European Central Bank releases its account of the last interest meeting. The UK has CPI, PPI, and RPI reports coming on Wednesday.
Finally, looking at Asia, China has all-important trade data released on Monday and Q4 GDP figures on Friday, while Japan also releases trade data and bank lending information.
Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:
Sunday, January 12, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· First launch of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket from Cape Canaveral, Florida.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Peru Balance of Trade (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves concludes a two-day visit to Beijing to participate in the first UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue since 2019. Accompanying Reeves will be a business delegation along with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. The goal of the meetings is to increase Chinese investment in the UK and facilitate easier UK investment in China.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Croatia holds its presidential runoff election. Incumbent President Zoran Milanović is due to face rival Dragan Primorac.
· Germany’s Green Party officially launches its election campaign with Robert Habeck.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Consumer Confidence (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Comoros holds legislative elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Angola Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)
Monday, January 13, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (the situation in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Joe Biden gives farewell foreign policy speech at the State Department in Washington, D.C.
· Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is expected to unveil a new public-private sector plan to help grow investment in Mexico.
· In Peru, Prosecutors summon President Dina Boluarte to testify about her nose surgery (why did she keep it secret, and did she violate the law by not officially notifying the appropriate authorities that she was being put under for the surgery).
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil Car Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout
· Colombia Consumer Confidence (December)
· USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)/ Monthly Budget Statement (December)
· Paraguay Balance of Trade (December)
· El Salvador PPI (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya travels to Seoul, South Korea for bilateral meetings to discuss trade and security issues. From there, he will travel to the Philippines and the Island nation of Palau.
· Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. The meeting comes less than two weeks ahead of Belarus’ presidential elections on January 26.
· The Secretary General of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Hiroshi Moriyama, will travel to Beijing for meetings with senior Chinese officials.
· In Pakistan, Ex-prime minister Imran Khan expected to be sentenced in graft case.
· The Asian Financial Forum begins in Hong Kong and runs through Tuesday.
· In Japan, today is “Coming of Age Day”, a national holiday that encourages those who have recently entered adulthood to become self-reliant members of Japanese society.
· In India, today is the first day of Kumbh Mela (Pitcher Festival) – the world’s biggest festival with an expected 450 million participants. Today Hindu holy men carrying swords and tridents will lead millions of devotees into the icy waters of the rivers Ganga, Yamuna and Saraswati during the first Shahi Snan (royal bath) in the northern city of Prayagraj. The event is held every 12 years.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Building Permits (November)
· Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (December)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (December)
· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Vehicle Sales (December)/ New Yuan Loans (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (December)/ Total Social Financing (December)
· Malaysia Retail Sales (November)
· India Inflation Rate (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The Defence Ministers from Germany, France, Italy and Britain visit Poland for talks on the situation in Ukraine.
· NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, exchanges with members of the European Parliament (MEPS) serving on the Committee on Foreign Affairs.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Ireland Construction PMI (December)
· Euro Area ECB Lane Speech
· Turkey Current Account (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Auto Production (December)/ Auto Sales (December)
· Slovakia Construction Output (November)
· Greece Inflation Rate (December)
· Romania Current Account (November)
· Serbia Inflation Rate (December)
· Belarus Inflation Rate (December)
· Poland Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account (November)
· Russia Vehicle Sales (December)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Iran holds talks with France, Germany, and the UK in Geneva to discuss Iran’s uranium enrichment program.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Mozambique swears in its new parliament.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt Current Account Q3
· Angola Wholesale Prices (November)/ Wholesale Prices (December)
Tuesday, January 14, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP).
· Today is the Orthodox Christian New Year.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The U.S. Senate begins the confirmation process for Defense Secretary-nominee Pete Hegseth, Interior Secretary-nominee Doug Burgum, and Veterans Affairs Secretary-nominee Doug Collins.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives opening remarks before 4th Annual "An Economy That Works for All: Housing Affordability" event.
· Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook before the Central Exchange.
· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (December)/ PPI (December)/RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (January)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/10)
· Argentina Inflation Rate (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya visits the Philippines. The visit is aimed to strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries at a time when the Philippines is facing increasingly tense relations and stand-offs in the South China Sea with China.
· South Korea’s Constitutional Court will hold its first hearing on the future of President Yoon Suk Yeol after he was impeached in early December.
· The National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultive Conference’s (CPPCC) Shanghai Committee hosts opening session of 3rd plenary in Shanghai.
· Sri Lanka President Anura Kumara Dissanayake visits Beijing for bilateral meetings. It is Dissanayake’s first official visit to China and he is expected to discuss strengthening relations and Sri Lanka’s debt treatment.
· Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin visits Vietnam for bilateral meetings.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino gives remarks at a meeting of local leaders in Kanagawa, Japan.
· New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q4/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q4
· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (January)/ Building Permits (November)/ Private House Approvals (November)
· Japan Current Account (November)/ Bank Lending (December)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (December)/ BoJ Himino Speech
· India WPI Food Index (December)/ WPI Fuel (December)/ WPI Inflation (December)/ WPI Manufacturing (December)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (December)
· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Finland hosts a Security summit for NATO countries bordering Baltic Sea. This comes in the wake of several subsea cables being deliberately cut by Russia.
· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov holds annual press conference in Moscow.
· French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou delivers general policy statement to Members of Parliament. Bayrou is currently negotiating a tough budget deal with parliament.
· Today is Novy God (Russian New Year).
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the joint ECB/BoF/HKMA conference on "Europe, Asia and the Changing Global Economy" in Hong Kong.
· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the Financial Stability Law Forum in Zurich, Switzerland.
· Netherlands Inflation Rate (December)
· Romania Inflation Rate (December)
· Hungary Inflation Rate (December)
· Euro Area ECB Lane Speech
· France Budget Balance (November)
· Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech
· Italy Industrial Production (November)
· Ukraine Balance of Trade (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ M1 Money Supply (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Wednesday, January 15, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote in the morning linked to Libyan sanctions. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).
· OPEC publishes its monthly Oil Markets Report.
· The International Energy Agency publishes its monthly Oil Markets Report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The Senate holds confirmation hearings for Brooke Rollins to be Secretary of Agriculture, Chris Wright to be Secretary of Energy, Pam Bondi to be Attorney General, Lee Zeldin to be Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Marco Rubio to be Secretary of State, John Ratcliffe to be Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Kristi Noem to be Homeland Security Secretary and Russell Vought to be Director of the Office of Management and Budget Director
· NASA's Blue Ghost lunar lander launches from Cape Canaveral, Florida. The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will carry the lander.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Maryland Chamber of Commerce "Meet the State 2025: Making Maryland More Competitive" event.
· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari gives welcome remarks and participates in fireside chat before virtual Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 2025 Regional Economic Conditions Conference.
· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the Connecticut Business and Industry Association (CBIA) Economic Summit and Outlook 2025.
· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks before virtual Wisconsin Bankers Association Midwest Economic Forecast Forum.
· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (October)
· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/10)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/10)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI (December)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (January)/EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (January/10)/NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Beige Book
· Canada Manufacturing Sales (November)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (November)/ Wholesale Sales (November)
· Brazil Business Confidence (January)
· Peru GDP Growth Rate (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Bangladesh’s interim government is receiving a number of recommendations from reform commissions created to review the electoral system, judiciary, and policy.
· Japanese company ispace launches second uncrewed moon mission from Merritt Island.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Import & Export Prices (December)
· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (January)/ Machine Tool Orders (December)
· Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Loan Growth (December)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (January)
· Philippines Cash Remittances (November)
· India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)
· Kazakhstan GDP (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· NATO military chiefs hold regular meetings in Brussels. The agenda includes a discussion of the Euro-Atlantic and the war in Ukraine.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat at the Global Macro conference of Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong.
· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the 15th Spain Investors Day 2025 in Madrid, Spain.
· Bank of England Executive Director Nathanaël Benjamin gives a speech at TheCityUK entitled “The future of stress testing.”
· Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor gives a speech at Leeds Univeristy entitled “Inflation Dynamics and Outlook.”
· EU Industrial Production (November)
· Netherlands Balance of Trade (November)
· Germany Wholesale Prices (December)/ Full Year GDP Growth 2025
· Romania Industrial Production (November)
· Great Britain Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI Output & Input (December)/ Retail Price Index (December)
· Hungary Construction Output (November)
· France Inflation Rate (December)/ IEA Oil Market Report
· Slovakia Inflation Rate (December)
· Spain Inflation Rate (December)
· Poland Inflation Rate (December)
· Ireland Balance of Trade (November)
· Serbia Building Permits (November)
· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision
· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)
· Turkey Budget Balance (December)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Inflation Rate (December)
· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Mozambique President-elect Daniel Chapo is sworn into office.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nigeria Food Inflation (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)
Thursday, January 16, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations in the morning on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.
· UN Secretary-General António Guterres will hold a press conference outlining his priorities for 2025.
· The International Energy Agency publishes its report on nuclear power.
· The International Labor Organization releases its report on World Employment and Social Outlook, Trends 2025.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The U.S. Senate Finance Committee holds a confirmation hearing for U.S. Secretary of Treasury-nominee Scott Bessent while the Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds a confirmation hearing for Elise Stefanik to be US Ambassador to the United Nations.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (November)
· Canada Housing Starts (December)/ BoC Gravelle Speech
· USA Initial Jobless Claims (January/11)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Import & Export Prices (December)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/10)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/16)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/15)
· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Vanuatu holds snap parliamentary elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Food Inflation (December)
· South Korea Unemployment Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision
· Japan PPI (December)
· Australia Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ Participation Rate (December)
· Sri Lanka Services PMI (December)/ Manufacturing PMI (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visits Moscow for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Swedish counterpart Ulf Kristersson, press conference follows. Later, the German Social Democratic Party officially launches its electoral campaign with Scholz as its candidate.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The European Central Bank publishes the Monetary Policy Meeting Account from the last interest rate meeting.
· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (December)/ GDP (November)/ Goods Trade Balance (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Construction Output (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ BoE Credit Conditions Survey/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (December)
· Netherlands Unemployment Rate (December)
· Germany Inflation Rate (December)
· Italy Balance of Trade (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)
· Euro Area Balance of Trade (November)
· Ireland Inflation Rate (December)
· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/10)
· Serbia Current Account (November)
· Belarus Industrial Production (December)
· Poland Core Inflation Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision (January)
· Romania Interest Rate Decision
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q3
· Jordan Inflation Rate (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Friday, January 17, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council Military Staff Committee holds a meeting in New York. The role of the Committee – which is a subsidiary of the Security Council – is to “advise and assist the Security Council on all questions relating to the Council’s military requirements for the maintenance of international peace and security.” They are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza as well as various ongoing UN peacekeeping efforts around the world.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (November)
· USA Housing Starts (December)/ Capacity Utilization (December)/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/17)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (November)/ Foreign Bond Investment (November)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (November)
· Colombia Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· India’s largest car show kicks off in New Delphi. India is the third largest auto market.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (December)
· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/11)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/11)
· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)
· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)
· China House Price Index (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)
· Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Q4
· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision/ Business Confidence Q4/ Industrial Production (December)
· Hong Kong Business Confidence Q1
· India Bank Loan Growth (January/03)/ Deposit Growth (January/03)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/10)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a virtual keynote lecture at the Crypto Asset Lab conference 2025 organized by the University of Milano-Bicocca.
· Great Britain Retail Sales (December)
· Slovakia Inflation Rate (December)
· Euro Area Current Account (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI Final (December)/ ECB Cipollone Speech
· Spain Balance of Trade (November)
· Germany Bundesbank Nagel Speech
· Italy Current Account (November)
· Belarus GDP (December)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Qatar Inflation Rate (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Ghana PPI (December)
Saturday, January 18, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Retreat will begin in Langkawi, Malaysia and runs through January 19.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, January 19, 2025
Global
· Today is the Orthodox Christian Feast of the Epiphany.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President-elect Trump will hold a rally in Washington, D.C, in advance of his inauguration (tomorrow).
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Recommended Weekend Reads
Trump’s Major Focus on Latin America, Trudeau Resigns – Now What?, Agriculture Is A Major Factor For Ukraine Peace, Africa Needs A Payments Union, and The Evolution of Remote Working
January 10 - 12, 2025
Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend. And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.
The Americas
This Administration is Shaping Up to Be Latin America-First Ryan Berg/Foreign Policy
One of former U.S. President Ronald Reagan’s most lasting slogans of governance is that “personnel is policy.” Judged using Reagan’s mantra, it appears as though the incoming Trump team could be rightly described as the United States’ first Latin America-focused administration in at least a century—and perhaps ever.
Eric Farnsworth on Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Resignation Americas Society/Council of the Americas
On January 6, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he would be resigning from his role after nearly a decade in leadership. The decision was announced ahead of planned October elections for this year and days before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has threatened to annex Canada and place 25 percent tariffs on its exports, takes office. Trudeau’s resignation triggered the shutdown of Canada’s Parliament until March 24. “Canadian politics will be fairly chaotic over this year, 2025,” explained Eric Farnsworth, vice president of AS/COA and head of the Washington office. “You could have as many as three prime ministers in the country in a period of nine or 10 months. You have a scenario where Canada itself lacks the firepower to really push back against the United States.” Farnsworth discusses what to expect from Trudeau’s resignation, the state of the opposition, and Canada’s place in the Western Hemisphere.
How COVID Changed Latin America Oliver Kaplan, Michale Albertus, Diana Senior-Angula, and Gustavo Flores-Macías/Journal of Democracy
Abstract: Covid-19 was a pressure test for democracy in Latin America. The pandemic hit the region harder than any other in the world, particularly in terms of covid death rates and rising poverty. The pandemic also created opportunities to consolidate and abuse power, resulting in selective human rights repression, power grabs, militarization, and corruption. However, the effects were not uniformly negative. The pandemic also prompted renewed economic crisis management, social mobilization, and local checks to central power. Drawing on the experiences of countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Mexico, and Peru, this essay illustrates that although the pandemic strained democratic politics, good pandemic management may have stemmed democratic decay. New forms of mobilization and policy implementation emerged, as well as new openings for political challengers that will shape the coming decade of governance in the region.
Russia’s War on Ukraine
Farming Frontlines: How Food and Agriculture Will Impact Negotiations in Ukraine Center for Strategic and International Studies Futures Lab Audio Brief
Russia’s recent attacks on Greater Odesa port infrastructure and foreign-flagged grain-carrying vessels in the Black Sea marked the most intense attacks on Ukraine’s agricultural infrastructure in over a year. Four of the ships hit in October were carrying agricultural commodities, including vegetable oil for the UN World Food Programme in Gaza, as well as corn and grain shipments for Egypt, Italy, and Southern Africa, according to statements by the Ukrainian and UK governments. As widely reported by CSIS and others, Ukraine’s agriculture sector has been a major front in Russia’s war in Ukraine since February 2022. With the September and October 2024 attacks, Russia continues its system-wide attacks on Ukraine’s agriculture infrastructure, negatively affecting Ukraine’s agricultural production and exports and thereby undercutting a major source of Ukraine’s export revenue.
How Suicide Drones Transformed the Front Lines in Ukraine New York Times Magazine
Outnumbered and desperate, the nation began hacking cheap consumer drones with explosives — bringing a brutal new form of violence to 21st-century warfare.
China
Charting China’s Export Controls: Predicting Impacts on Critical U.S. Supply Chains The National Bureau of Asian Research
The PRC’s export control regime has grown and formalized in recent years in response to an increasingly active and complex landscape of U.S. and allied export controls. The PRC’s system of export controls has historically been piecemeal, and its administration poorly understood. Recent formalization of the system beginning in 2020 and escalating in 2023 is consistent with the PRC’s increased exercise of lawfare and demonstrates greater regulatory capabilities. PRC authorities are able to weaponize supply chains by targeting specific critical minerals under new export controls.
What Gold’s Crazy Run Says About China Bloomberg YouTube Channel
Gold prices have been on a rampage, hitting record after record. While driven in part by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty and the prospect of lower US interest rates, unrelenting demand from China has also played a big part.
Measuring China’s Manufacturing Might Center for Strategic and International Studies
China’s manufacturing sector has been pivotal to the country’s rapid economic rise. Yet China’s industrial might has become a source of friction as the United States, Europe, and other economies seek to defend and nurture their own manufacturing sectors. In the face of mounting geopolitical tensions, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is doubling down with repeated calls for China to become a “manufacturing power” (制造强国) and lead the world in producing high-value, high-technology goods. This ChinaPower tracker examines these dynamics through 10 charts, visualizing the rise of China’s manufacturing sector and Beijing’s efforts to cement its industrial superpower status for future decades.
China – North Korea Evolving Relations: A Conversation with Dr. Feng Zhang China Power Podcast
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Feng Zhang joins us to discuss China-North Korea relations in light of the growing Russia-North Korea relationship and the deployment of North Korean troops to support Russia. Dr. Zhang discusses how the China-North Korea relationship has suffered in recent years, in part due to China joining UN sanctions against North Korea in 2016, the COVID-19 pandemic, and North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Dr. Zhang explains that China has a waning influence over North Korea, evidenced most strongly through the recent further alignment between Pyongyang and Moscow.
Geoeconomics and Demographics
The Evolution of Remote Work Across Industries: From Potential to Practice Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
As the St. Louis Fed has reported before, work from home (WFH) rose rapidly in the U.S. following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although WFH rates are down from their pandemic peak, they have stabilized well above prepandemic levels. For example, the share of those working from home all workdays rose from 7% just before the pandemic to 32% in May 2020 and has remained at about 12% since 2022. This raises the questions: Why are some workers continuing to work from home when they did not before the pandemic? And why have others resumed commuting even though they worked from home during the pandemic? In this blog post, we focus on one key factor in understanding WFH variation across workers: the industry in which they are employed. Industries matter because job tasks vary widely across them, and some tasks are much easier to perform remotely than others. This variation in WFH feasibility, or potential, plays a crucial role in determining how much industries were able to pivot to remote work both during and after the height of the pandemic.
World Depopulation: Prospects and Implications Nicholas Eberstadt/AEI Foreign & Defense Working Paper
Abstract: Though few yet see it coming, a momentous turning point for humanity is looming immediately ahead. We are about to enter a new age of human history. Call it the epoch of the “population implosion”. Because it is arriving quietly, without fanfare—almost on tiptoes—it is catching us by surprise. The world population explosion is almost over. With birth rates plummeting and sub-replacement fertility taking hold around the world, we are heading into an era of pervasive and indefinite de-population: starting already—and not just with countries, but entire geographic regions—eventually encompassing the planet as a whole. There is no avoiding the great depopulations that lie ahead—they are already “baked into the cake”, fused into the foundations of societies all around the world by birth choices today’s parents have already made. The only question is how soon and how fast these coming depopulations transform life as we know it.
Are Big Cities Important for Economic Growth? Mathew Turner & David N. Weil/NBER
Abstract: Cities are often described as engines of economic growth. We assess this statement quantitatively. We focus on two mechanisms: a static agglomeration effect that makes production in bigger cities more efficient, and a dynamic effect whereby urban scale impacts the productivity of invention, which in turn determines the speed of technological progress for the country as a whole. Using estimates of these effects from the literature and MSA-level patent and population data since 1900, we ask how much lower US output would be in 2010 if city size had been limited to one million or one hundred thousand starting in 1900. These effects are small. If city sizes had been limited to one million people since 1900, output in 2010 would have been only 8% lower than its observed value.
Africa
The Case for an African Payments Union: Lessons from the European Experience Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The realities of the global financial system make it nigh impossible for African governments to deliver employment and growth amid social and political instability and when financing is needed to transition away from fossil fuels.
Trump Cabinet Confirmation Hearings Schedule
Following up on our note yesterday of upcoming Senate confirmation hearings for Trump nominees, here is the schedule as it currently stands. Note these hearings are subject to change and several are to be confirmed. We will be updating this schedule if there are any changes. Please let us know if you have any questions.
Tuesday, January 14th
Senate Armed Services Committee: Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense
Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee: Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Interior
Senate Committee on Veterans Affairs: Doug Collins, Secretary of Veterans Affairs
Wednesday, January 15th
Senate Agriculture Committee: Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Agriculture
Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee: Chris Wright, Secretary of Energy
Senate Judiciary Committee: Pam Bondi, Attorney General
Senate Environment and Public Works Committee: Lee Zeldin, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (this could be moved to Thursday, 1/16)
Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Marco Rubio, Secretary of State
Senate Intelligence Committee: John Ratcliffe, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency
Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs (Morning): Kristi Noem, Homeland Security Secretary
Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs (Afternoon): Russell Vought, Office of Management and Budget Director
Thursday, January 16th
Senate Finance Committee: Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury
Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Elise Stefanik, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
Monday, January 27th
DATE TO BE CONFIRMED: Senate Finance Committee: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services
Here Come the Confirmation Hearings
Next Week Most of President-elect Trump's Cabinet Picks Get Their Senate Confirmation Hearings – But Will They Tell Markets Anything on Policy?
The Presidential Inauguration is 13 days away, but the new Congress is up and running. The first order of business for the new Senate Republican majority - aside from its ongoing wrestling match with President-elect Trump on how to proceed on renewing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (Trump's 2017 Trump tax bill), moving border security legislation and the 2025 budget (one Reconciliation bill or two?) – is successfully conducting the confirmation hearings of Trump's cabinet selections. The schedule from the respective Senate committees for those hearings is now out (see the hearing schedule below).
At this point, we believe most - if not all - of the President-elect's nominees will ultimately be confirmed (although we are expecting serious opposition to several of the nominees, including Defense Secretary-nominee Pete Hegseth and Director of National Intelligence nominee Tulsi Gabbard.) But this set of confirmation hearings is likely to be uniquely important to markets as they will shed significant light on, we believe, two major factors for the next two years:
How coordinated are Trump's nominees with the President-elect on policy issues? Are they helping to set the policy agenda for their respective agencies with Trump and the incoming White House team, or are they simply executing policies the President himself alone truly sets? And – putting aside President-elect Trump's massive and wide-reaching commentary on policy issues either verbally or by tweet, which policy issues will actually be the primary focus of the respective departments and agencies, and which look to be secondary or tertiary? And how will the nominees actually carry them out?
Now that Republicans control the Senate, just how compliant and deferential will Senate Republicans be to President Trump on his major policy proposals? Our view is, based on our conversations and observations, that while Republicans will do their utmost to show a strongly unified front in showing their support for President Trump and his policy agenda, careful listening to the hearings may show pressure points – even tiny cracks. What we see and hear from Republican Senators and staff behind closed doors about many of Trump's policies publicly is not the same as what they say publicly. Three examples:
Tariffs: What will Treasury Secretary-nominee Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary-nominee Howard Lutnick, and State Department-nominee Marco Rubio say in response to a likely barrage of questions about Trump’s much-discussed tariff regime? How will they explain – in more detail than Trump has done – how it will work, when will it be implemented, and their views on retaliatory tariffs on US goods and services?
Mass-Deportation: Despite all the talk of mass deportations, we are starting to hear businesses weighing in (carefully, quietly) that mass deportations would, in fact, hurt the economy. Many small businesses simply need the workforce illegal immigrants have provided them, and mass deportations will damage their businesses and, ultimately, economic growth. Will we get a sense of Republican Senators trying to navigate this issue in the confirmation hearings of Homeland Security Secretary-nominee Kristi Noel, Attorney General-nominee Pam Bondi, and Office of Management and Budget-nominee Russell Voight (who will likely be asked how it will be paid for)?
Greenland/Canada/Panama Canal: What does Secretary of State-nominee Marco Rubio say to questions around Trump's statements of wanting to buy Greenland, making Canada the 51st state, and possibly using the military to take back the Panama Canal? What does Defense Secretary-nominee Pete Hegseth say in response to questions about the use of the military in Panama (as President-elect Trump has suggested), and doesn’t Congress have to authorize the use of troops?
Once we get through these hearings, the next step will be each of the nominees being approved by the respective committees and then having their nominations reported to the full Senate for approval. How that goes depends largely on the confirmation hearings. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) can only lose three Republicans on a nomination or risk defeat for a nominee.
We would also note that Thune is gaming out which cabinet nominees he can actually get confirmed on Inaugural Day (January 20) and sworn immediately into office. Top of that list is Marco Rubio and Scott Bessent.
Normally, confirmation hearings are tightly scripted, and nominees are well-prepared to avoid getting into policy debates. These will not be "normal" hearings, and this is not going to be a normal presidential administration. Our view is markets should plan to pay closer attention to the confirmation hearings that most impact the sectors they are focused on.
Tuesday, January 14th
Senate Armed Services Committee: Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense
Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee: Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Interior
Senate Committee on Veterans Affairs: Doug Collins, Secretary of Veterans Affairs
Wednesday, January 15th
Senate Agriculture Committee: Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Agriculture
Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee: Chris Wright, Secretary of Energy
Senate Judiciary Committee: Pam Bondi, Attorney General
Senate Environment and Public Works Committee: Lee Zeldin, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (Possibly Thursday, 1/16)
Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Marco Rubio, Secretary of State
Senate Intelligence Committee: John Ratcliffe, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency
Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs (Morning): Kristi Noem, Homeland Security Secretary
Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs (Afternoon): Russell Vought, Office of Management and Budget Director
Thursday, January 16th
Senate Finance Committee: Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury
Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Elise Stefanik, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
Monday, January 27th
Senate Finance Committee: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (Not Confirmed)
The Global Week Ahead
The US Congress Certifies the 2024 Election, Venezuela’s Opposition Leader Meets with Hemispheric Leaders, and Canadian PM Trudeau Resigns
January 5 - 12, 2025
We regret the late arrival of this week's Reg Week Ahead. Technical issues prevented us from publishing on our normal schedule. We have updated it to incorporate Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement today.
We hope you all had a wonderful New Year holiday. The world returns to work this week following the holidays, and a lot is happening. First, the US Congress convened in a joint session on Monday to certify the election of President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance. The event was relatively quick – about an hour and a half – and much different than four years ago when riots broke out around and inside the Capitol.
The new Congress was sworn into office last Friday and is busy getting to work. We would note that Congress's schedule will be quite different this year as the US Senate has adopted a calendar for working five days a week and going for ten straight weeks without a break. That is quite a change of pace for the Senate, which has worked three days a week for as long as we can remember, allowing members to return home Friday through Monday to meet with constituents. The market should expect a lot of action in Congress this year at an unrelenting pace.
Also this week, Venezuela’s exiled opposition leader, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, will continue a series of meetings throughout the Hemisphere with leaders to bolster support for his victory last July in the presidential elections. Gonzalez will meet President Biden in Washington and then go to Panama, the Dominican Republic. He recently met with Argentine President Javier Milei. Meanwhile, Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, who by most independent accounts clearly stole the election in July, will be sworn in for a third term in office this coming Friday.
Finally, we would note that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned from office early Monday morning. Having served for nine years as Prime Minister, he faced low approval numbers and internal party dissent that led to the resignation of his Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, Chrystia Freeland. Freeland is now considered a leading contender to be elected the new leader of the Liberal Party before elections in late October.
Looking at the global radar screen, this week's economic reporting schedule is relatively light. In the US, markets will be looking at the US jobs report that will be coming out on Friday. Also out in the US, this week will be the ISM services index on Tuesday and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report on Friday. And last but certainly not least, the Fed releases meeting minutes.
In Asia, China will release inflation data, official PMI prints, and the Caixin services PMI. In Japan, wage data is out this week, and Bank of Japan regional branch managers are meeting to discuss wage growth.
Moving to Europe, CPI reports will be released for the Eurozone, France, Germany, and Italy. The European Central Bank’s consumer expectations survey will also be released on Tuesday.
Below is our weekly report of everything we are watching worldwide this coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.
Sunday, January 5, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, January 6, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US Congress holds a joint session to certify the 2024 Presidential elections.
· Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to resign.
· President Joe Biden is expected to host a meeting with Venezuelan opposition leader Emundo Gonzalez Urratia at the White House.
· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul in Seoul, South Korea. Blinken will also travel to Tokyo, Paris, and Rome.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Financial Stability” at the Seventh Conference on Law and Macroeconomics being held in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
· Mexico Consumer Confidence (December)
· Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout
· USA S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Factory Orders (November)/ Total Vehicle Sales (December)
· Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)
· Ecuador Inflation Rate (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (December)
· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (December)
· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Netherlands Business Confidence (December)/ Retail Sales (November)
· Switzerland Retail Sales (November)
· Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)
· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)
· France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)
· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Hesse CPI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)
· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)
· Great Britain New Car Sales (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (December)
· Slovenia Balance of Trade (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Tourist Arrivals (December)/ Business Confidence (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt S&P Global PMI (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ M2 Money Supply (November)
· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (December)
· South Africa S&P Global PMI (December)
· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (December)
· Ghana S&P Global PMI (December)
Tuesday, January 7, 2025
Global
· Eastern Orthodox Christians celebrate Christmas today.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Japan.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Greater Raleigh Chamber Economic Forecast: Launch 2025.
· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (December)/ PPI (November)
· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)
· Canada Fed Barkin Speech/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Ivey PMI s.a (December)
· USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Redbook (January/04)/ ISM Services PMI/ Business Activity/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices (December)/ JOLTs Job Openings (November)/ JOLTs Job Quits (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/03)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (December)
· Colombia PPI (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Taiwan’s military holds combat readiness training sessions.
· Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will host Singapore Prime Minister Lawerence Wong for bilateral talks.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Australia Building Permits (November)/ Private House Approvals (November)
· Philippines Inflation Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
· Taiwan Inflation Rate (December)
· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
· India Fiscal Year GDP Growth Prel 2025-24
· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)
· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (January/07)
· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (December)/ Halifax House Price Index (December)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (December)
· Netherlands Inflation Rate (December)
· Hungary PPI (November)
· Switzerland Inflation Rate (December)
· France Inflation Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (December)
· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ CPI Flash (December)
· Germany HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (December)/ Bavaria CPI (December)
· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)
· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
· Spain Business Confidence (December)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· For the first time in 13 years, Qatar Airways will resume flights to Damascus and Aleppo, Syria.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (December)
· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (December)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)
· Israel M1 Money Supply (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits Congo.
· Ghana’s President-elect John Mahama is sworn into office.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt Current Account Q3
Wednesday, January 8, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council meets on the situation in Syria.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Paris.
· Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia visits the Dominican Republic.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Lectures of the Governors Event in Paris, France.
· Chile Inflation Rate (December)
· Brazil Industrial Production (November)
· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/03)/ ADP Employment Change (December)/ Fed Waller Speech/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/04)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/03)/ FOMC Minutes/ Consumer Credit Change (November)/ Used Car Prices (December)
· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (December)
· Argentina Industrial Production (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Current Account (November)
· Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (November)
· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
· Japan Consumer Confidence (December)
· Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Services PMI (December)
· India M3 Money Supply (December/27)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· German Conservative top candidate for chancellor Friedrich Merz holds a speech on the final day of the CSU annual meeting in Seeon, Germany.
· Electronic Travel Authorization (ETA) scheme starts in UK for non-Europeans.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Netherlands Household Consumption (November)
· Germany Factory Orders (November)/ Retail Sales (November)
· Romania Unemployment Rate (November)
· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ Current Account (November)
· Euro Area Consumer Confidence Final (December)/ Economic Sentiment (December)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)/ Industrial Sentiment (December)/ PPI (November)/ Selling Price Expectations (December)/ Services Sentiment (December)
· Great Britain BBA Mortgage Rate (December)
· Ireland Unemployment Rate (December)
· Serbia PPI (December)
· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (December)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Lebanon’s Parliament will hold a session to try and elect a new president.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ ABSA Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Tanzania Interest Rate Decision/ Inflation Rate (December)
· Angola Wholesale Prices (November)
Thursday, January 9, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Today the US federal government is closed in memoriam for former President Jimmy Carter. A funeral service will be held today at the National Cathedral in Washington, D.C.
· Following former President Jimmy Carter’s funeral service, President Joe Biden will fly to Rome for meetings with Pope Francis as well as with Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
· Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia visits Panama.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will give a speech entitled “Reflections on 2024: Monetary Policy, Economic Performance, and Lessons for Banking Regulation” at te California Bankers Association 2025 Bank Presidents Seminar.
· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks on "Right Now, It's Putting One Foot in Front of the Other" before the National Association of Corporate Directors New Jersey Chapter Economic Forecast 2025.
· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Virginia Bankers Association/Virginia Chamber of Commerce Financial Forecast.
· Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook before the Economic Club of Kansas City.
· Brazil Retail Sales (November)
· Mexico Inflation Rate (December)/ Auto Exports & Production (December)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· USA Challenger Job Cuts (December)/Wholesale Inventories (November)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/09/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/08)
· Colombia Inflation Rate (December)
· Peru Interest Rate Decision
· El Salvador Inflation Rate (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Average Cash Earnings (November)/ Overtime Pay (November)/ Foreign Bond Investment (December/28)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/28)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/04)
· Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Retail Sales (November)
· Philippines Unemployment Rate (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)
· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (December)
· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (December)/ Car Sales (December)
· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Elon Musk will hold a conversation with Germany’s far-right AfD's leader Alice Weidel on X.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the University of Edinburgh.
· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Brandenburg CPI (December)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (December)/ Saxony CPI (December)
· Romania Balance of Trade (November)/ PPI (November)
· Hungary Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)
· Slovakia Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)
· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
· Euro Area Retail Sales (November)
· Greece Balance of Trade (November)
· Ireland Industrial Production (November)
· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/03)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani visits Iran for bilateral talks.
· Foreign Ministers from US, France, Britain, Germany and Italy meet on Syria in Rome.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits Chad.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Manufacturing Production (November)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (December)
Friday, January 10, 2025
Global
· The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) update on global temperatures.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro will be sworn into office for a third term. Maduro is widely seen as having stolen the election and has imprisoned thousands of opposition figures since the election in July.
· President-elect Donald Trump is scheduled to be sentenced over cover-up of hush-money paid to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.
· The US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in the challenge to the federal ban on TikTok.
· First launch of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket.
· The Detroit Auto Show begins and runs through January 20.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil Inflation Rate (December)/ Car Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (December)
· Mexico Industrial Production (November)
· Canada Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ Participation Rate (December)/ Building Permits (November)
· USA Non-Farm/ Government/ Manufacturing Payrolls (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Participation Rate (December)/ Average Hourly Earnings/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (January) / Michigan Current Conditions (January) / Michigan Consumer & Inflation Expectations (January) / WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/10)
· Uruguay Industrial Production (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Household Spending (November)/ Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Economic Index (November)
· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (October)
· Indonesia Retail Sales (November)
· Malaysia Unemployment Rate (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)
· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ Consumer Confidence (December)
· India Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/03)
· Kazakhstan PPI (December)
· China New Yuan Loans (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (December)/ Total Social Financing (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· First flight by Pakistan national carrier departs for EU after four-year ban.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Netherlands Manufacturing Production (November)
· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (December)
· Romania GDP Growth Rate Final Q3/ Retail Sales (November)
· Turkey Industrial Production (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)
· France Industrial Production (November)/ Household Consumption (November)
· Spain Industrial Production (November)
· Italy Retail Sales (November)
· Slovenia Industrial Production (November)
· Greece Industrial Production (November)
· Serbia Interest Rate Decision
· Belarus Inflation Rate (December)
· Germany Current Account (November)
· Ireland Retail Sales (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (November)
· Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The Ethiopia Stock Exchange launches operations.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt Inflation Rate (December)
· Ghana Inflation Rate (December)
· Mozambique Inflation Rate (December)
Saturday, January 11, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Kosrae Constitution Day, commemorating when the island nation instituted its constitution.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The German Social Democratic Party (SPD) congress to officially sign off on their candidate for chancellor ahead of the election.
· The German Far-right AfD party holds their party congress on their election program.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, January 12, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Peru Balance of Trade (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Croatia holds its presidential runoff election. Incumbent President Zoran Milanović is due to face rival Dragan Primorac.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Consumer Confidence (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Comoros holds legislative elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Angola Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)
U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
Congress Certifies Election Results, Fed Vice Chair Barr Steps Down, The Federal Government Is Closed Thursday for the National Day of Mourning for former President Carter
January 6 - 10, 2025
We regret the late arrival of this week's Reg Week Ahead. Technical issues prevented us from publishing on our normal schedule. We have updated it to incorporate Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr's resignation announcement today.
Washington (kind of) roars back to life this week with the new Congress sworn in and President-elect Trump continuing his record pace of nominations. We said "kind of" because Washington got hit Monday with the biggest snowstorm we have seen in years, closing all schools and the federal government. Nonetheless, Congress is gathering to certify the presidential election results.
Also, the week will be truncated with the funeral of former President Jimmy Carter. He will lie in state in the Capitol Rotunda until his funeral at 10:00 a.m. at the Washington National Cathedral. All living presidents have been invited, and President Biden will give a eulogy.
Looking at the regulatory week ahead, the big news of the day is Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr's announcement this morning that he will step down from the Vice Chair role but stay on (for now) as a Fed Governor. Speculation has already begun regarding who will replace Barr, primarily focused on current Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and former FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams.
Also, this week, we have officially entered the retrospective phase of the Biden Administration's regulatory world, and the Brookings Institution seems to be the place to go to do that – particularly this Wednesday. At 11 a.m. CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam will deliver remarks and participate in a fireside chat, "Commodity derivatives regulation: Where do we go from here?". Then, at 2:00 p.m., FTC Chair Lina Kahn sits for a fireside chat on the future of the FTC (and perhaps her plans – is she staying or going?).
We also expect President-elect Trump to make several regulatory nominations this week. So far, he has only nominated Paul Atkins for SEC Chair. We are also expecting him to fill out the nominations for the top jobs at Treasury under Treasury Secretary-nominee Scott Bessent.
Below is a listing of other events we are monitoring this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.
U.S. Congressional Hearings
U.S. Senate
There are no hearings of significance scheduled this week.
House of Representatives
There are no hearings of significance scheduled this week.
Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks
· Saturday, January 4, 5:30 p.m. – Federal Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on monetary policy at the 2025 Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting, San Francisco, California.
· Sunday, January 5, 1:15 p.m. – San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly will give a speech and participate on a panel discussing the Ben Bernanke’s contributions to economics at the 2025 Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting in San Francisco, California.
· Monday, January 6, 9:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Financial Stability” at the Seventh Conference on Law and Macroeconomics being held in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
· Thursday, January 9 – The Federal Government (and Federal Reserve) will be closed due to the national day of mourning for the death of former President Jimmy Carter.
· Thursday, January 9 – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will give a speech entitled “Reflections on 2024: Monetary Policy, Economic Performance, and Lessons for Banking Regulation” at te California Bankers Association 2025 Bank Presidents Seminar.
U.S. Treasury Department
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Commerce
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Securities and Exchange Commission
· Wednesday, January 8, 3:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.
· Friday, January 10, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
· Wednesday, January 8, 11:00 a.m. – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will deliver remarks and participate in a fireside chat, “Commodity derivatives regulation: Where do we go from here?” at the Brookings Institution.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
FINRA
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
National Credit Union Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division
· Wednesday, January 8, 2:00 p.m. – FTC Chair Lina Kahn will participate in a fireside chat at the Brookings Institution.
Farm Credit Administration Wagner Labor Initiative in New York.
· Wednesday, January 8, 10:00 a.m. – The Farm Credit Administration will hold a board meeting. The agenda includes an update on Farm Credit System Funding Conditions.
Farm Credit Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Small Business Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
International Monetary Fund & World Bank
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
North American Securities Administrators Association
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Trade Associations & Think Tank Events
Trade Associations
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Think Tanks and Other Events
· Thursday, January 9, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics will hold an event entitled “Should we care about who owns audit firms?”
· Thursday, January 9, 12:00 p.m. – The Economic Club of Washington, D.C. holds a discussion with Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan.
Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.
Recommended Weekend Reads
How Much Will GLP-1s Disrupt the Economy?; The Impact of Trump’s Trade Policy on Exchange Rates; and China, India, and the US in 2025
January 3 - 5, 2025
Please find our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend. And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.
The Economics of GLP-1s and Aging
Ozempic economics: how GLP-1s will disrupt the economy in 2025 Catherine Rampell/Washington Post
A new technology is disrupting the economy. Even experts don’t entirely understand how it works, its full range of uses and what its unintended consequences could be. No, it’s not artificial intelligence; I’m talking about weight-loss drugs. With adult obesity rates falling last year for the first time in more than a decade, drugs such as Ozempic and Zepbound are already reshaping Americans’ waistlines. Now, they’re poised to reshape the entire economy, too. As of May, roughly 1 in 8 American adults had tried GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1s for short). This percentage has almost certainly grown since then, as telehealth companies, “medi-spas” and compounding pharmacies have aggressively marketed GLP-1 prescriptions. We’re only just beginning to learn the full universe of effects for this class of drugs. Originally developed to treat Type 2 diabetes, GLP-1s were soon discovered to be effective in treating obesity and managing weight loss. Now there’s an ever-growing list of other potential uses (on- and off-label), including for treating heart disease, sleep apnea, Alzheimer’s, substance abuse and maybe even gambling addiction.
Will weight-loss drugs lead to upheaval in the sugar market? While many traders have brushed off concerns, the potential impact is clear Financial Times
The health risks of too much sugar have been made clear, but the billion-dollar global market to supply it is thriving. Sales of sweet treats remain strong, and waistlines keep expanding. Could weight-loss drugs now succeed where governments, scientists and doctors have failed: crushing demand for sugar? So-called glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1s) contained in such drugs as Wegovy, Mounjaro and Ozempic curb users’ appetites and are being hailed as game changers for tackling obesity and potentially a range of other conditions, from diabetes to addiction. They could also lead to an upheaval in sugar markets.
The No-Hunger Games: How GLP-1 Medication Adoption is Changing Consumer Food Purchases Sylvia Hrstakeva/Jura Liakonyte, & Leo Feler, Cornell College of Business Research Paper
Abstract: We examine how consumers modify their food purchasing behavior after adopting appetite-suppressing GLP-1 receptor agonists, such as Ozempic and Wegovy. Utilizing a unique dataset linking survey responses on medication adoption and timing with transaction data from a representative U.S. household panel, we document the prevalence, motivations, and demographic patterns of GLP-1 adoption, including off-label use. Households with at least one GLP-1 user reduce grocery spending by approximately 6% within six months of adoption, with higher-income households reducing spending by nearly 9%. These reductions are driven by significantly larger decreases in purchases of calorie-dense, processed items, including a 11% decline in savory snacks. In contrast, we observe directional increases in nutrient-dense purchases, such as yogurt and fresh produce. We also examine food-away-from-home spending at limited-service establishments, such as fast-food chains and coffee shops, finding reductions at breakfast and especially during dinner times. Our findings highlight the potential for GLP-1 medications to significantly reshape consumer food demand, a trend with increasingly important implications for the food industry as adoption continues to grow.
On the Limits of Chronological Age Rainer Kotschy/David E. Brown/Andrew Scott – National Bureau of Economic Research
Abstract: Analysis of population aging is typically framed in terms of chronological age. However, chronological age itself is not necessarily deeply informative about the aging process. This paper reviews literature and conducts empirical analyses aimed at investigating whether chronological age is a reliable proxy for physiological functioning when used in models of economic behavior and outcomes. We show that chronological age is an unreliable proxy for physiological functioning due to appreciable differences in how aging unfolds across people, health domains, and over time. We further demonstrate that chronological age either fails to predict economic variables when used in lieu of physiological functioning, or that it predicts additional effects on economic behavior and outcomes that are largely unrelated to physiological aging. Continued reliance on chronological age as a proxy for physiological functioning might impede the ability of societies to fully harness the benefits of increasing longevity.
Trump’s Trade Policy and Exchange Rates
Tariffs and Exchange Rates (and Stephen Miran) Stan Veuger/American Enterprise Institute
In a recent policy paper, Stephen Miran – who was recently nominated by President-elect Trump to serve as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors – discussed at some length the incidence of tariffs. Miran’s objective is to convince readers that tariffs are not as harmful as is often argued. He argues that to fully understand the impact of a tariff on domestic consumers, we cannot limit ourselves to an analysis of what happens to domestic prices. We also need to consider what happens to the exchange rate. Veuger argues that this needs to be considered in more concrete terms, using as a scenario the US imposing a 50% tariff on washing machines from Europe. It has become common for commentators to suggest, Veuger argues, that this will mean US importers will pay 50% more for washing machines, and this price increase is passed on to US consumers. How does the analysis change if the euro depreciates by 5% as a result of the tariff, because demand for imports from Europe has gone down? Assuming euro-denominated prices do not change, US importers will now pay 45% more for washing machines, not 50%. But the currency depreciation affects all imports, so US importers will now pay 5% less for bananas. Veuger says this has (at least) five implications which he goes through in his commentary.
Currency Wars and Trade Kris James Mitchener & Kirste Wandschneider/National Bureau of Economic Research
The Great Depression is the canonical case of a widespread currency war, with more than 70 countries devaluing their currencies relative to gold between 1929 and 1936. What were the currency war’s effects on trade flows? We use newly-compiled, high-frequency bilateral trade data and gravity models that account for when and whether trade partners had devalued to identify the effects of the currency war on global trade. Our empirical estimates show that a country’s trade was reduced by more than 21% following devaluation. This negative and statistically significant decline in trade suggests that the currency war destroyed the trade-enhancing benefits of the global monetary standard, ending regime coordination and increasing trade costs.
China, India, and the U.S in 2025
After the Fall: China’s Economy in 2025 The Rhodium Group
China’s 2024 claim that GDP growth was on track to meet high targets was impossible to reconcile with increasingly frantic efforts to prop up a flagging economy all year long. Collapsing property construction slowed growth to a crawl in 2022 and 2023, and in 2024 the spillover from real estate sidelined local government investment and consumption as well. By our estimates, China’s GDP growth in 2024 improved modestly to around 2.4% to 2.8%, well below than official claims of nearly 5%. If it stimulates domestic demand with some urgency and ramps up debt, we think China could get to 3-4.5% growth in 2025, reaching the high end of that range only if everything falls in Beijing’s favor. But that is the very top of—or above—the potential growth ceiling until Beijing fixes long-festering structural problems.
The US And China In Indian Grand Strategy Tanvi Madan/ India’s World Indian policymakers have recognized that China and the U.S. are among the most—if not the most—consequential countries for India’s interests. They have thought about how China (the near behemoth) and the U.S. (the far behemoth) could and would affect, in both, positive or negative ways, India’s quest for security, prosperity, status and autonomy. The roles Indian leaders have envisioned for Beijing and for Washington in their strategy have neither been static nor de-linked from each other. The roles China and the U.S. have ended up playing have depended on several factors, including the dynamics between them that affected their view of India. That, in turn, has shaped New Delhi’s options as it sought to achieve its objectives.
The Challenges Behind China’s Global South Policies Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
At the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, China unveiled eight initiatives to support the Global South, including advancing technology connectivity and cooperating on poverty reduction, food security, and climate change. China’s initiatives came as no surprise. As its tensions with the Global North intensify—particularly in areas of economic competition, technological rivalry, and security issues such as the Russia-Ukraine war—the Global South, with approximately 85 percent of the world’s population, assumes great significance in China’s foreign policy. Facing a weak domestic market, increasing trade restrictions from the West, and growing tensions with the United States, China seeks to mobilize support from the Global South to counterbalance the West in economic, security, and ideological challenges. However, China’s Global South policy is increasingly confronted by its limits in trade and investment and its self-deceiving security-nexus approach.
Americans foresee a somewhat challenging year ahead for the country, based on their predictions for various aspects of U.S. affairs and daily life. Majorities of U.S. adults think 2025 will be a year of political conflict, economic difficulty, international discord, increasing power for China and Russia, and a rising federal budget deficit. However, there is at least some optimism for 2025, as 66% of U.S. adults expect gains in the stock market, 54% think there will be increasing or full employment, and 52% predict reasonable price growth. Meanwhile, Americans are essentially tied in their projections for what 2025 will hold when it comes to the United States’ power in the world, the number of labor strikes, taxes and crime rates.
The Global Week Ahead
The New U.S. Congress Gets Sworn in, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu Undergoes Cancer Surgery, Will A Russian Gas Deal Get Renewed? And A Quiet Week for Global Markets
December 29, 2024 - January 5, 2025
2024 comes to an end much like it started: Russia's bloody war on Ukraine continues apace, violent conflict continues in the Middle East, and US and EU economic decoupling with China continues. But much has changed, too. In the Middle East, Hamas and Hezbollah have effectively ceased to be effective terrorist organizations, Syria has thrown off 50 years of horrific dictatorship, and Iran – the sponsor of most of the worst violent activities in the region – suddenly finds itself politically and militarily vulnerable while struggling with an increasingly brittle economy.
Meanwhile, the EU, Germany, France, and other member states are undergoing significant political shifts as voter sentiment moves more and more governments rightward, challenging existing norms on economic policy, immigration, and common security. China continues to struggle through deeply rooted internal economic stagnation just as a long-anticipated demographic spiral begins to impact it.
But keeping our focus on what is happening in the coming week, the world remains relatively quiet as we prepare for the New Year's Day holiday. The most significant events we are watching this week begin in Europe, as Poland takes over the Presidency of the Council of European Union from Hungary. Poland will hold the presidency for six crucial months as the EU debates how best to continue supporting Ukraine, deal with the situation in the Middle East, and navigate the ongoing internal EU debate on how to handle trade with China and the US and growing demands to increase the overall security of the EU. There will be national elections in Germany in February, while France will continue to struggle with a badly splintered parliament, which will considerably shift the political calculus in 2025.
In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is undergoing major surgery to remove his prostate after falling ill on Friday. His illness comes as Israel has begun to conduct airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have been targeting Israel with missile strikes in recent weeks, and as combat operations continue in Gaza and tensions remain high on the Lebanese border and Syrian border.
Also this week, a deal allowing Russian natural gas to transit through Ukraine to the EU ends on December 31. Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico – who met with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week in Moscow – is pressing Ukraine to renew the agreement and, until that is accomplished, allow the flow of gas to continue. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Fico of striking “shadow agreements” with Russia and has vowed to end Russian gas flowing through Ukraine, as Zelensky says it only helps fund the Russian war machine. The loss of the Russian gas supply would have a significant negative economic impact on Slovakia and Hungary, but it is seen as “negligible” to European gas prices overall.
Turning to the US, the new 119th Congress is sworn into office on Friday. Republicans take control of the Senate while in the House, Republicans will hold one of the slimmest majorities in US history in the House. Markets are watching closely to see if the current Speaker of the House, Michael Johnson (R-LA), will be re-elected on Friday. At least one Republican has said he will not vote for Johnson, and if there are any more defections, Johnson will likely be removed from the Speakership.
Finally, we would note that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen formally notified Congress this past Thursday that the debt limit will be reached between January 14 and 23, requiring "extraordinary measures" to keep the government operational. Thus, the new Congress immediately is under pressure to pass both a final 2025 budget and a likely necessary debt ceiling increase.
Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the holiday-shortened week means economic data are sparse. In the US, markets watch November home sale figures on Monday and ISM PMI figures on Friday. In Europe, Germany's unemployment figures will be out later this week, along with S&P PMIs for all the major European countries. In Asia, markets are anticipating China's PMI reports.
Below is our weekly report of everything we are watching worldwide this coming week. We want to wish you a joyful New Year!
Sunday, December 29, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Bolivia will announce the results of its judicial elections held on December 15. Bolivia and Mexico are the only countries in the world that elect their judiciary.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Mongolia Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its freedom in 1911 from the Qing China dynasty.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Croatia holds the first round of its presidential elections.
· Georgia will hold its presidential inauguration. Tensions remain high in the country and mass protests are likely to be held in opposition to the swearing in of Mikheil Kavelashvili.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to undergo prostate removal surgery.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (November)/ Private Bank Lending (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Chad holds parliamentary elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, December 30, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a meeting on threats to international peace and security.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (November)/ Nominal Budget Balance (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout
· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (December)
· Chile Unemployment Rate (November)
· USA Chicago PMI (December)/ Pending Home Sales (November)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (December)
· Paraguay Inflation Rate (December)
· Uruguay Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account Q3
· Panama Current Account Q3
· Mexico Fiscal Balance (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Rizal Day in the Philippines, a national holiday. The day commemorates the life and works of Jose Rizal, a national hero who was a doctor and novelist who condemned the Spanish rule of the Philippines.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)
· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (December)
· Philippines PPI (November)
· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)
· Thailand Retail Sales (October)
· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)
· Sri Lanka Current Account Q3
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (December)
· Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence (December)
· Spain Inflation Rate (December)/ Current Account (October)
· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (December)
· Slovenia Inflation Rate (December)
· Greece PPI (November)
· Serbia Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)
· Russia M2 Money Supply (November)
· Ukraine Current Account (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· French Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu and Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot are expected to visit Beirut, Lebanon to discuss current security issues.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Qatar Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)
· Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q3
· Israel M1 Money Supply (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (November)
· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
· Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q3
· South Africa Budget Balance (November)
· Angola Wholesale Prices (November)
· Egypt M2 Money Supply (November)
Tuesday, December 31, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Canada will release a final report on a year-long investigation into foreign interference in Canada’s federal electoral processes and democratic institutions
Economic Reports/Events –
· Chile Copper Production (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)
· USA Redbook (December/28)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (October)/ House Price Index (October)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/27)
· Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q3
· Colombia Cement Production (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is International Solidarity Day of Azerbaijanis, a national holiday in Azerbaijan.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Inflation Rate (December)
· China NBS General/ Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Singapore Bank Lending (November)
· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (November)
· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (December)/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Unemployment Rate Q3
· India Government Budget Value (November)/ Infrastructure Output (November)/ External Debt Q3
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· At midnight, a deal allowing the flow of natural gas from the eastern border of Russia through Ukraine to Slovakia and Hungary is set to expire unless a last-minute agreement can be reached.
· Ground staff at airports in Portugal are expected to go on strike.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (November)
· Greece Retail Sales (October)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q3
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· African Union peacekeeping mission ATMIS due to end mandate in Somalia.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa M3 Money Supply (November)/ Private Sector Credit (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)
Wednesday, January 1, 2025
Global
· Happy New Year! Welcome, 2025!
· Canada takes the chair of the G7 for 2025 from Italy which chaired the group in 2024.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Haitian Independence Day, celebrating the day in 1804 when slavery was abolished – making it the first country in the Western Hemisphere to abolish slavery.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)
· Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Poland takes the rotating EU Presidency through July 1, 2025.
· Bulgaria and Romania officially join the EU Schengen Agreement.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Sudan Independence Day, commemorating the day was granted its independence in 1956 from Great Britain and Egypt.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Thursday, January 2, 2025
Global
· Algeria takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of August. Also today, there will be a there will be a flag Installation ceremony for new members of the UN Security Council: Denmark, Greece, Pakistan, Panama and Somalia.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Prosecutors are expected to summon President Dina Boluarte to testify about her secret nose surgery. The issue is she apparently kept the surgery a secret and “abandoned” her duties in order to undergo the procedure. Boluarte has a 3 percent approval rating.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (November)
· USA MBA Mortgage Market/ Refinance/ Purchase Index (December/27)/ MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/27)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/28)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (December/21)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Construction Spending (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December/27)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/02)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/01)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (December)
· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Mexico S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Peru Inflation Rate (December)
· Argentina Tax Revenue (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Malaysian Court of Appeal holds a hearing on ex-Prime Minister Najib Razak's appeal for house arrest. Razak is already serving a six-year jail term for corruption related to plundering the country’s sovereign wealth fund 1MDB.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (December)/ Commodity Prices (December)
· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Adv Q4/ URA Property Index Q4/ SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Indonesia Inflation Rate (December)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)
· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (December)
· Hong Kong Retail Sales (November)
· Pakistan Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Netherlands NEVI Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/27)
· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (December)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (December)
· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)/ New Car Sales (December)
· Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)
· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Loans to Companies & Households (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)
· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Total Credit (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (December)
· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (December)
Friday, January 3, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The 119th United States Congress is sworn into office. The House of Representatives will decide on whether the current Speaker of the House, Michael Johnson (R-LA), will remain in the role or elect a new Speaker.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Maryland Bankers Association First Friday Economic Outlook Forum.
· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ Business Confidence (December)/ Unemployment Rate (November)
· Colombia Exports (November)
· USA ISM Manufacturing PMI/ Prices/ Employment/ New Orders (December)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (December/27)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/03)/ Total Vehicle Sales (December)
· Uruguay Inflation Rate (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea GDP Growth Rate Adv Q4
· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (December/28)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/28)
· Singapore Retail Sales (November)
· Thailand Business Confidence (December)
· India Bank Loan Growth (December/20)/ Deposit Growth (December/20)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/27)
· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (December)
· Pakistan Balance of Trade (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a panel entitled "Geopolitical Fragmentation" hosted by the American Finance Association (AFA) at annual meeting of American Economic Association (AEA)/Allied Social Science Associations (ASSA) in San Francisco, California.
· Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Turkey Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)/ MPC Meeting Summary
· Hungary Balance of Trade (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)
· Spain Unemployment Change (December)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)
· Germany Unemployment Change/ Persons/ Rate (December)
· Poland Inflation Rate (December)
· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (November)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (November)/ M4 Money Supply (November)/ Net Lending to Individuals (November)
· Greece Unemployment Rate (November)
· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (December)
· France New Car Registrations (December)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Tourist Arrivals (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Saturday, January 4, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will chair a panel on "Banking in an Inflationary Environment" hosted by American Economic Association (AEA) in San Francisco, California.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, January 5, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Manufacturing PMI (December)
· Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
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