The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s Tariffs Continue to Dominate Markets and Geopolitics, Chinese President Xi Travels Embarks on Asia Tour, The ECB Decides on Interest Rates, and Fed Chair Powell Talks Gives Speech on the Economic Outlook

April 13 - 20, 2025

It was another wild week for global markets in the wake of President Trump’s global tariff plan after he called a 90-day time-out on their implementation while raising tariffs on China to 145%.  While this coming week would normally be a quiet week for markets in advance of the Easter holiday, everyone is bracing for another wild week of high-level bilateral meetings and likely new announcements.

Drilling into the week ahead, we are going to be watching the meeting between Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and President Trump on Thursday to discuss prospects for a trade deal with the EU.   Additionally, we note there are unconfirmed reports US Treasury Scott Bessent may meet with UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves this week, too, to discuss a possible US-UK trade deal.   Bessent is scheduled to travel to Argentina on Monday to meet with President Javier Milei as Argentia is likely to sign a new deal with the IMF on financing assistance, further boosting Milei’s economic reform policies.

While all this going on, Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia for his first foreign visits of the year.  Trade relations are expected to be the primary point of discussion in the wake of the Trump tariffs – especially on Vietnam and Cambodia which got hit with tariffs of 46% and 49% respectively.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, it will be a relatively light economic reporting week.   Markets, however, will be most focused on central bank decisions coming from the  European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada.   

In the US, we will see the release of Q1 GDP, retail sales figures, industrial production for March and jobless claims on Friday.  But perhaps the most keenly watched economic data point this week will be Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday as well as speech by a number of regional Federal Reserve Presidents.

In Asia, Japan releases its March CPI on Friday while China’s Q1 GDP as well as March trade balance figures for March are out Monday.

In Europe, the UK labor market indicators are out Tuesday and  March CPI is out on Wednesday.  Germany sees the ZEW Survey for April out on Tuesday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, April 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador holds its 2nd round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Beijing hosts the world’s first half marathon featuring both human and humanoid robot runners at the Chinese capital’s artificial intelligence hub.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (March)/ Total Social Financing (March)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (March)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will travel to Washington to hold new talks aimed at resolving EU-U.S. trade tensions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       India will launch joint military exercises with 10 African states located along the continent's eastern coast off the coast of Tanzania.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 14, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).  

·       OPEC releases its monthly Oil Market Report.

·       There will be a BRICS Agriculture Working Group meeting in Brasilia, Brazil through April 15.

·       There will be a BRICs Meeting of Senior Energy Officials (virtual) through April 15.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump hosts Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele at the White House.

·       U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with Argentina's President Javier Milei and local businesspeople in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

·       The U.S. Federal Trade Commission begins opening arguments in the trial seeking to unwind Meta’s purchase of Instagram.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Outlook with Chris Waller Event, hosted by the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Society of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Driving Through the Economic Fog" before the Greater Greer Chamber of Commerce.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on monetary policy in a moderated conversation hosted by Emory University.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will speak the Villanova Univeristy School of Business.

·       Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (February)/ Wholesale Sales (February)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi kicks begins a tour to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia that ends on Friday. The trip comes at a critical time for both China and Southeast Asia, with Vietnam and Cambodia among the countries hit hardest by the tariffs Trump announced on April 2. Malaysia, meanwhile, is this year's ASEAN chair, leading the bloc's response to Washington's measures.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (March)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (March)/ Visitor Arrivals (February)

·       Singapore Central Bank interest rate decision/GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Car Sales (March)

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  Ministers are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine, Syria, Gaza, and Iran.  They will also talk about EU-Africa relations, the Western Balkans and how to engage further in the Balkans.

·       There will be an information meeting of EU Social Affairs Ministers through April 15 in Warsaw, Poland. 

·       The 1st EU-Palestine High-Level Political Dialogue in Luxembourg.  The gathering, led by  the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, and the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Palestinian Authority, Mohammad Mustafa. The Commission will be represented by Commissioner for the Mediterranean, Dubravka Šuica and Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness and Crisis Management Hadja Lahbib.  This the first ever meeting of EU and Palestinian leaders at this level and they are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza, the unfolding situation in the West Bank, and prospects for a two-state solution.

·       The Fourth Accession Conference with Albania will be held in Luxembourg.  The meeting will serve to open negotiations with Albania on Cluster 2 ‘Internal market’, including Chapters 1 (free movement of goods), 2 (freedom of movement of workers), 3 (right of establishment and freedom to provide services), 4 (free movement of capital), 6 (company law), 7 (intellectual property law), 8 (competition policy), 9 (financial services) and 28 (consumer and health protection).

·       Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov will take part in the Third Meeting of National Coordinators of the Group of Friends in Defense of the United Nations Charter” in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hungary Construction Output (February)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (March)

·       Turkey Current Account (February)/ Auto Production (March)/ Auto Sales (March)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Current Account Q4

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (February)

Tuesday, April 15, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).  

·       There will be a BRICS Climate Finance Meeting (virtual).

·       There will be a BRICS meeting on the global re-insurance landscape (virtual) through April 16.

·       The International Energy Agency (IEA) Monthly Oil Market Report is published.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Peru, former president Ollanta Humala and his wife, Nadine Heredia, accused of money laundering, set to hear their sentence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives remarks at the acceptance of the 2025 Distinguished Alumna Award at the Cal Alumni Club of Washington, D.C. Annual Reception, Washington, D.C.

·       Canada Housing Starts (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI Median (March)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (March)/ Manufacturing Sales (February)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)/ Import & Export Prices (March)/ Redbook (April/12)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ NOPA Crush Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/11)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (March)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In North Korea, the country celebrates the Day of the Sun, marking the birthday of the country’s first leader Kim Il Sung.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (March)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/15)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       India WPI Food Index/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Philippines Consumer Confidence Q1/ Cash Remittances (February)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank President will host an informal dinner and exchange of views of the Council with the President of the European Council António Costa in Frankfurt.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Employment Change (February)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (March)/ Claimant Count Change (March)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (March)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)/ ZEW Current Conditions (April)

·       Romania Industrial Production (February)

·       France Inflation Rate (March)/ IEA Oil Market Report

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (March)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (February) / ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (February)

·       Serbia Building Permits (February)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Bahrain hosts the Smart Cities Summit through April 16.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (March)/ Wholesale Prices (March)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (February)/ Mining Production (February)/ SARB Monetary Policy Review

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

Wednesday, April 16, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultation, on the Great Lakes region.  

·       the World Trade Organization publishes its annual Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, analyzing recent global trade developments up to the fourth quarter of 2024 and forecasting GDP in 2025

·       There will be a BRICS Disaster Management Working Group meeting through April 17 in Brasilia, Brazil.

·       There will be a meeting of BRICS Transport Working Group in Brasilia, Brazil through April 17.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on "Fed 101" and participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before event, "Columbus Metropolitan Club Weekly Forum: Insights from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack"

·       Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economy and community banking with Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan before a Global Perspectives event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Dallas Citizens Council.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/11)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/11)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/11)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Capacity Utilization (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ Business Inventories (February)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (April)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (February)/ EIA Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stocks Change (April/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (February)/ Foreign Bond Investment (February)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (February)

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Report & Press Conference

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (March)/ Leading Indicator (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun will travel to Hanoi for meetings with Vietnam’s General Phan Van Giang.  Together, they will watch the 38th joint naval patrol in the Gulf of Tonkin.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Korea Interest Rate Decision/South Korea Export & Import Prices (March)

·       New Zealand Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (April)/ Machinery Orders (February)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (March)

·       China House Price Index (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (February)

·       India M3 Money Supply (April/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU gender equality ministers in Warsaw, Poland.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Price Index (March)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Euro Area Current Account (February)/ Core Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (February)

·       Serbia Current Account (February)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (March)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (March)

·       Russia PPI (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (February)

Thursday, April 17, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at the White House.  They are expected to discuss Trump’s tariff regime toward the EU.

·       Japan and the United States will hold their first round of high-level negotiations on U.S. tariffs in Washington.

·       U.S. fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated ships will go into effect, although the extent of the fees is unclear given recent reconsideration in Washington.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Michael S. Barr will give a speech on Cybersecurity in the Banking System at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs 2025 State-of-the-Field Conference on Cyber Risk to Financial Stability, New York, New York.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (April)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (February)

·       USA Housing Starts (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/12)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/05)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (April)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (April)/ Philly Fed Employment (April)/ Philly Fed New Orders (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/11)/15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/17)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/18)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/16)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Junko Nakagawa gives a speech to local business leaders in Gunma, Japan.

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q1

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (April/12)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/12)/ BoJ Nakagawa Speech

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Employment Change (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Participation Rate (March)

·       Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q1

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Services PMI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

·       Germany PPI (March)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (March)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (February)

·       Greece Current Account (February)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/11)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area Deposit Facility Rate/ / Marginal Lending Rate

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Belarus GDP (March)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Syria Independence Day, marking the day in 1946 when the country gained its independence from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (February)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

·       Ghana PPI (March)

Friday, April 18, 2025

Global

·       Today is Good Friday.  Most financial markets in Europe and the Americas are closed.

·       The United Nations is closed in observation of Good Friday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President J.D. Vance visits Italy and will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (a day after she meets with President Trump in Washington).  Vance will also visit the Vatican for Good Friday ahead of Easter Sunday.

·       Iran-US nuclear talks to resume (to be confirmed) in Oman.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly will participate in a conversation at the University of California Berkeley Fisher Center for Real Estate & Urban Economics.

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (March)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/11)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (March)

·       China FDI (YTD) (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Serbia’s new government takes office after mass protests forced the previous government to resign.

·       In the UK a four-day strike begins by members of the union Unite over pay, pensions and conditions for 100 Red Handling staff, including baggage handlers and flight dispatchers, at Gatwick airport.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Italy Balance of Trade (February)/ Construction Output (February)

·       Slovenia PPI (March)

·       Slovakia Current Account (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (March)/ Manufacturing PMI (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, April 19, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·      In the US, thousands of demonstrators are expected to gather in Washington and other US cities to protest against President Donald Trump and his policies.

·       Today is the 250th anniversary of the start of the American Revolution (the Battles of Lexington and Concord).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 20, 2025 

Global

·       Today is Easter Sunday in the Western Christan world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NASA’s Lucy mission, a robotic spacecraft, is expected to pass the main belt asteroid 52246 Donaldjohanson on its way to the Trojan asteroids that share Jupiter’s orbit.

·        

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.