The Global Week Ahead

U.S.-Led Ukraine Peace Talks Resume in Saudi Arabia, Trump Officials to Make A “Private Visit” to Greenland, Canda’s Carney Calls Snap Elections,  China Hosts Two Major Economic Forums, and It Is A Heavy Week of Economic Reports

March 23 - 30, 2025

Spring is in the air in the Northern Hemisphere after a pretty rough winter.  And with it comes a significant uptick of diplomatic activity globally.  This coming week, U.S. diplomats will again travel to Ryad, Saudi Arabia for talks with Russian counterparts in a bid to reach an agreement on a ceasefire in Ukraine.  As we reported last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin seemed to make some positive remarks toward reaching a deal but then reiterated a host of unpalatable demands on the US, NATO, and Ukraine – including removing NATO forces from Eastern European NATO member states and no NATO membership for Ukraine.  This was followed by some of the most intensive missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian civilian targets since the war began.

One aspect of the talks will focus on how to make shipping safer in the Black Sea as a means to reaching a cease-fire.  We continue to pessimistic Putin – who is celebrating his 25th year in power this week – will relent and agree on any peace deal.

Also this week, U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Walz and 2nd Lady Usha Vance are scheduled to make a “private visit” to Greenland as the newly elected government there begins forming.  What exactly they are doing – and why the 2nd Lady is involved – remains a mystery at this time of writing.

Meanwhile, newly chosen Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has called for snap elections on April 28.  Carney said he needs a strong mandate to deal with President Trump, saying Trump “wants to break us so America can own us.”  Carney went on to say Canada is facing “the most significant crisis of our lifetimes because of President Trump’s unjustified trade actions and his threats to our sovereignty.”     Oddly, this comes as President Trump claimed British King Charles II secretly offered – and Trump indicated he was  interested in pursuing –the U.S. to become an associate member of the British Commonwealth.  The Commonwealth, which was created in 1926, is made up of 56 countries – including Canada – which were originally British colonies.

China will be holding two major economic forums this week which are likely to give investors greater insight into the state of China’s economy and what new steps Beijing may take to try to further bolster the economy.  The first is the China Development Forum (CDF) and the second is the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) which is commonly referred to as the “Davos of Asia.”    The CDF comes as foreign investment in China has been rapidly shrinking.  Major US and European CEOs are scheduled to attend and are expected to meet with President Xi Jinping.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it is going to be a big week with lots of new data coming out globally.   Inflation indicators are going to be released in the US, Japan, and Europe.

Looking first at the US, the February PCE and personal income and spending data are due out on Friday as well as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday.  The Conference Board’s report will be closely looked at by investors following the University of Michigan’s economic reports last week which showed consumer sentiment had sunk to its lowest level since 2022. 

Additionally, as the U.S. Congress struggles to hammer out a tax and budget deal via a giant Reconciliation package, the Congressional Budget Office is publishing its federal debt outlook on Wednesday and the statutory limit report on Thursday, putting more pressure on how far Congress can go cutting taxes and dealing  more aggressively with the deficit.

Turning to Europe, the UK releases CPI and RPI data on Wednesday while the Eurozone March flash CPIs are out on Friday.  Germany releases the Ifo survey on Tuesday and we will see consumer sentiment numbers from Germany, Italy, and France this week, too.

In Asia, the Central Bank of Japan releases recent meeting minutes as the Tokyo CPI is out Friday. Australia releases its budget this week, too.  And in China, the 1-year MLF rate is set on Tuesday while we will see industrial profit reports on Thursday. 

Below are the rest of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we will be watching in the coming week:

Sunday, March 23, 2025

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will call for snap elections for April 28.  Carney is citing “the most significant crisis of our lifetime” caused by President Trump and the tariffs he has placed on the country.

·       Argentine President Javier Milei will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Israel. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and First Lady Jane Yumiko Ittogi begin a state visit to Belgium and Luxembourg.

·       Pakistan celebrates Republic Day. The government will hold large military parades showing a wide array of weapons, including nuclear-capable weapons systems.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania Presidential Election (1st Round)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas will visit Cairo, Egypt to discuss the situation in Gaza.

·       Turkey's main opposition party, the Republican People's Party, will hold presidential primaries ahead of Turkey's 2028 presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 24, 2025

Global

·       US-Ukraine talks on establishing a cease-fire take place in Saudi Arabia through March 24.  Negotiators are expected to discuss how to ensure safer shipping in the Black Sea as part of the talks

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Advancing adaptability in UN Peace Operations – Responding to new realities. The Secretary-General will deliver remarks.

·       At the United Nations, Filippo Grandi, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Ms. Amy Pope, International Organization for Migration Director General, and a representative of the Bangladesh Government, will launch the 2025-26 Joint Response Plan (JRP) for the Rohingya Humanitarian Crisis in Bangladesh. The first-ever multi-year funding appeal for the Rohingya Response in Bangladesh brings together 113 partners, including Bangladeshi organizations, to reach some 1.48 million people including Rohingya refugees and host communities in its first year.  

·       The 1st meeting of BRICS Senior Energy Officials Committee meets in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli officials are expected to travel to Washington to discuss Iran’s nuclear program and Israel’s demarcation talks with Lebanon.

·       Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa and leftist Luisa González debate before the presidential runoff.

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on Small Business Lending at the Advancing Innovation and Fairness in Small Business Finance, Washington, D.C.

·       Chile PPI (February)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (January)/ Mid-month Core Inflation Rate (March)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (March)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (February)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

·       El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

·       Paraguay PPI (February)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva visits Japan from Monday to Thursday. He is to meet Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, and the pair are expected to agree on an action plan in the areas of investment and security.

·       South Korea's Constitutional Court will rule on the impeachment of acting President Han Duck-soo, which may allow him to resume his duties in that role.

· The Asian Development Bank publishes its Asian Economic Integration report.

·       The China Development Forum will begin in Beijing. The Forum is being held as China is seeing plunging inbound investments and growing uncertainties after sweeping U.S. import tariffs. Some of the executives are reportedly meeting President Xi Jinping after the forum.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia 2025–26 Federal Budget/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (February)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal’s Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel visits China for bilateral talks.

·       In Berlin, there will be a Press conference of the conservative party CDU general secretary Carsten Linnemann to inform on the stand of the negotiations on the formation of a new governing coalition.

·       NATO holds Dynamic Mariner 25 maritime exercises in Spain.

·       Isar Aerospace test flight of its Spectrum launcher, first flight of an orbital vehicle launched from continental Europe, launches from Andøya, Norway.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets with the Board of Trustees of the Gorchakov Fund think tank in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives the distinguished lecture at the University of Leicester.

·       Switzerland Current Account Q4

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

·       Greece Current Account (January)

·       Poland Retail Sales (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. They will hold a public policy debate on the Communication on a Vision for agriculture and food, published by the European Commission on 19 February 2025.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Health Ministers in Brussels through March 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (February)

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (February)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

·       The BRICS Sherpas Meeting takes place in Brazil through March 24.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil’s Supreme Court considers whether to try ex-president Jair Bolsonaro on coup charges.

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will visit Japan through March 26.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the Economic Landscape and Entrepreneurship at the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce 2025 Legislative Summit, Washington D.C.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives opening remarks before the 2025 New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ FGV Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (January)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (February)

·       USA Redbook (March/22)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (January)/ House Price Index (January)/ CB Consumer Confidence (March)/ New Home Sales (February)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ Money Supply (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/21)/ Building Permits (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Colombia Business Confidence (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Boao Forum, sometimes known as 'Asia's Davos,' starts on Tuesday on the southern Chinese island of Hainan under the banner "Asia in the Changing World: Towards a Shared Future." Bangladesh's leader Muhammad Yunus is expected to address the forum before heading to Beijing for a meeting with Xi on Friday. 

·       Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers presents the federal budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Australia RBA Jones Speech

·       The Bank of Japan meeting notes are published.

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (January)/ Leading Index (January)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The new German Parliament will convene its first session since federal elections on Feb. 23

·       In the Netherlands, NATO's largest air defense exercise Joint Project Optic Windmill (JPOW).

·       Today is Greek Independence Day, celebrating when the country won the Greek Revolution in 1821 freeing them from 400 years of occupation by the Ottoman Empire.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Union New Car Registrations (February)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (March)/ Capacity Utilization (March)

·       Spain PPI (February)/ Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (March)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (March)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (January)/ Consumer Confidence Q1

Wednesday, March 26, 2025

Global

·       The BRICS 1st Finance and Central Bank Deputies meets in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Governors of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) hold their annual meeting in Santiago, Chile though March 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks and participates in a moderated conversation on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before a Paducah Area Chamber of Commerce/Greater Paducah Economic Development luncheon.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/21)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (March/21)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/21)/ Durable Goods Orders (February)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (March/21)

·       Brazil Current Account (February)/ Foreign Direct Investment (February)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (February)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea’s opposition official Lee Jae-myung will face a legal verdict on charges of violating the election law. If convicted he will be banned from public office, and his party will have to select another candidate ahead of the next election.

·       Today is Independence Day in Bangladesh.

·       The Bangkok Auto Show begins and runs through April 6.

·       SEMICON China 2025, a massive semiconductor expo, begins in Shanghai, China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (March)

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (February)

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Japan Coincident Index (January)/ Leading Economic Index (January)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Finance minister Rachel Reeves delivers Spring Statement on the economy.

·       Today is the 25th anniversary of Vladimir Putin being elected President of Russia.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets with Esteban Lazo Hernandez, head of Cuba’s parliament, in Moscow.

·       Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin presents a government report to the State Duma.

·       The Russian Arctic Forum begins in Murmansk, Russia, and runs through March 27.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Ban Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone Participates in panel discussion entitled  ‘Philipp Sandner Award in Digital Finance Research’ at 11th Crypto Assets Conference organized by the Frankfurt School Blockchain Center in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI Input & Output (February)/ Retail Price Index (February)/ Spring Economic Statement

·       France Consumer Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (February)/ Jobseekers Total (February)

·       European Central Bank Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Russia Corporate Profits (January)/ Industrial Production (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, March 27, 2025

Global

·       The UN the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) followed by consultations.

·       The inaugural Global Conference on AI, Security and Ethics begins in Geneva and runs through March 28.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US National Security Advisor Mike Walz and Second Lady Usha Vance will travel to Greenland  - billed as a “private visit” – to participate in talks with the incoming new Greenland government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin delivers the H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economy at Washington and Lee University.

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (March)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (January)

·       USA GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Corporate Profits Q4/ GDP Price Index Q4/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (February)/ Initial Jobless Claims (March/22)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (March/15)/ PCE Prices Q4/ Real Consumer Spending Q4/ Pending Home Sales (February)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March/21)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (March)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/27)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/26)

·       Argentina Current Account Q4/ Economic Activity (January)

·       Colombia Cement Production (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te will hold the first "whole of society" civil defense drill during his term, part of a new initiative launched by the administration to assess and strengthen public preparedness. The exercise will incorporate complex disaster scenarios, including damage to critical infrastructure, and will verify the response capabilities of central and local government bodies. The test comes as tensions with China heat up, with Beijing's forces holding repeated military exercises near the island.

·       French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot will visit Beijing, China, through March 28.

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will visit Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (March/22)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/22)

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (February)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Malaysia PPI (February)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will host in Paris another summit of European leaders considering participation in a "coalition of willing" to support Ukraine. Representatives of Canada, the EU, and UK will attend.

·       EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic visits Beijing through March 29 to discuss a number of trade issues.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron hosts Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in Paris.

·       The EU Environmental Council will meet in Brussels.  Ministers will focus on the environmental dimension of the clean industrial deal, which was presented by the Commission on 26 February 2025 as a joint roadmap for competitiveness and decarbonization.  The clean industrial deal aims to bring together climate action and competitiveness under one overarching growth strategy, with a focus on energy intensive industries and clean tech. It puts a strong emphasis on circularity and envisages a range of measures to strengthen the circular economy, including a circular economy act, a green VAT initiative and a chemical industry package.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank General Council meeting

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde delivers a pre-recorded message at the conference "Mujeres en economía y finanzas" organized by Banco Central de Chile in Santiago, Chile.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Claudia Buch gives the introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the 2025 IIF European Summit "Europe at a Crossroads: A Time to Act for Competitiveness and Growth" in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel delivers the Mais Lecture “Financial literacy and monetary policy transmission” organized by Bayes Business School in London, United Kingdom.

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Participation Rate (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/21)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

·       Spain Retail Sales (February)/ Current Account (January)/ Business Confidence (March)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (March)

·       Russia GDP (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (February)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (March)

Friday, March 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will visit Vietnam through March 29.

·       U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will visit Manila, Philippines, through March 29.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr participates in a discussion on banking policy at the 2025 Banking Institute, Charlotte, North Carolina.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic moderates a Housing Finance Policy panel before the Third Annual Georgia Tech-Atlanta Fed Household Finance Conference.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Net Payrolls (February)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (March)/ GDP (January)/ Budget Balance (January)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (February)

·       USA Personal Income & Spending (February)/ PCE Price Index (February)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations & Sentiment (March)/ Michigan Current Conditions (March)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (March/28)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladesh's interim leader Muhammad Yunus will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping for bilateral talks in Beijing, China.

·       The Philippines kicks off campaigning for local positions, including all seats in the House of Representatives, half in the Senate and city and provincial offices, ahead of mid-term elections. Within seven weeks, Filipinos will head off to polling stations to vote in one of the most crucial elections in recent memory. Experts widely regard it as a proxy battle between the political clans of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and of ex-President Rodrigo Duterte.

·       Tajikistan holds elections for their upper house of parliament.

·       Today is Serf’s Emancipation Day in Tibet.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (March)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Construction Orders (February)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (February)/ Imports/ Exports (February)/ PPI (February)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (February)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (February)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (March)/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (March/14)/ Deposit Growth (March/14)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/21)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council (Cohesion) meets in Brussels. 

Economic Reports/Events –

European Central Bank Board Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives online remarks at the conference "VI Cumbre FEDEPE" organized by FEDEPE (Federation of Female Professionals).

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence APR/ Unemployed Persons/ Change/ Rate (March)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (March)

·       Great Britain Current Account Q4/ Goods Trade Balance (January)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Business Investment Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (February)

·       Hungary Current Account Q4/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       France Inflation Rate (March)/ Household Consumption (February)/ PPI (February)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (March)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (March)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (February)

·       Italy Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Industrial Sales (January)/ PPI (February)

·       Euro Area Economic Sentiment (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)/ Industrial Sentiment (March)/ Selling Price Expectations (March)/Services Sentiment (March)

·       Greece PPI (February)/ Total Credit (February)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (February)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (March)

Saturday, March 29, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will join US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Gen Nakatani, the Japanese Defence Minister, on the Pacific island of Iwo Jima for a joint memorial service to commemorate the 1945 battle that involved some of the fiercest fighting of the second world war and the location for the famous US marine flag raising image. According to the Financial Times. Hegseth is likely to use the occasion to lobby Japan to increase its defense spending.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Retail Sales (February)

·       Thailand Current Account (February)/ Private Consumption & Investment (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 30, 2025

Global

·       Eid al-Fitr will be observed. It is the first of the two official holidays celebrated within Islam. Eid al-Fitr is celebrated by Muslims worldwide because it marks the end of the month-long dawn-to-dusk fasting of Ramadan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Daylights Savings time begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

U.S. – Russia Talks Over Ukraine Begin in Saudi Arabia, G7 Finance Ministers Meeting in Canada, Germany Debates and Votes on a €500 Billion Infrastructure Fund, and the U.S. Congress Races to Head a Government Shutdown

March 9 - 16, 2025

It will to be another momentous week for Ukraine this week as U.S. and Russian diplomats meet in Saudi Arabia to begin negotiations over a possible cease-fire.  The Ukrainians will not be at the table, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will travel to Riyadh to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salem to discuss his concerns.  At the time of this writing – reports that Zelensky may return to Washington along with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanual Macron for meetings with President Trump (however, Macron’s office has denied the report). 

Meanwhile, G7 Finance Ministers are scheduled to gather in Charlevoix, Canada, for two days.  The Ukraine situation will be top of the agenda but they are also expected to discuss a broader range of issues including the situation in the Middle East and delve into “significant issues in the Americas, including the ongoing crises in Haiti and Venezuela, as well as peace and security challenges in Africa, particularly in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.”

Markets this week are closely watching as the German Bundestag (Parliament) begins debating and possibly voting on a €500 billion infrastructure package as well as amending the Constitution to amend the debt brake the country has had in place to avoid deficit borrowing.  This is a historic vote for Germany, being described as a fiscal sea change for the country.  It comes in large part as a result of President Trump’s moves to end military aid to Ukraine and his urging Europe to strengthen its own defenses.

Also this week, the U.S. Congress is racing to pass a stop-gap Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the federal government operating.  The current CR expires on March 14 and the proposed new one will keep funding flowing until September, giving House and Senate Republicans time to hammer out President Trump’s massive tax and budget Reconciliation bill.  Republican leaders are still at odds over key aspects of that bill, with a large faction of House Republicans demanding $2 trillion in budget cuts in order to fund the President’s tax proposals.  Much of that $2 trillion is dependent on Elon Musk’s DOGE efforts to find a promised $2 trillion in government cuts as well as highly controversial cuts to the Medicaid program.

All this comes as President Trump’s 25 % tariffs on steel and aluminum go into effect on Wednesday, mostly aimed at EU exports.  And China’s new tariffs on U.S. imports – ranging from 10% to 15% mostly agricultural imports – go into effect on Monday. 

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, there will be a steady flow of important economic news.  US inflation numbers are being released Wednesday, and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment reports will be released on Friday.   In Canada, the Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday to decide interest rates.

Turning to Asia, China’s inflation prints are out on Sunday.  Japan’s Economy Watchers survey is out this week, too.  Importantly, the Japanese Trade Union Confederation’s initial wage hike agreement votes will be announced. 

In Europe, UK GDP figures are out this week, while Germany releases trade figures and industrial production numbers on Monday.

Below are the other significant events around the world we are watching carefully this week:

Sunday, March 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada’s Liberal Party selects a new leader.

·       Honduras holds primary elections.

·       Daylight Savings Time begins in the US.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will speak at a press conference about the first 100 days of her second mandate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Algeria's electoral body will hold elections for 72 of the 174 seats in its upper house, the National Council.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will pay an official visit to Singapore through March 10.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing in the afternoon on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron might be returning to Washington with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to meet with President Trump to finalize a critical mineral deal and move the Ukraine peace process forward.  However, Zelenksy is also scheduled to be meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salem in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in advance of Wednesday’s US-Russia negotiations there.

·       China’s retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products begin ranging from 10-15 percent on soybeans, pork, corn, and chicken.

·       The Organization of American States will elect its next secretary general.

·       The CERAWeek 2025 Energy Conference begins in Houston, Texas.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (February)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout/ Federal Tax Revenues (January)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (February)

·       Argentina           Tax Revenue (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India and the European Union hold the next round of talks on a trade agreement in Brussels from Monday to Friday as the two sides aim to conclude an ambitious deal by the end of this year, amid rising geopolitical tensions and Trump's tariff threats. The pair relaunched negotiations in June 2022 after a deal failed to materialize despite 16 rounds of talks between 2007 and 2013.

·       China’s annual “Two Sessions’ ends with the National People’s Congress legislative gathering in Beijing.  Last week, the leadership set an economic growth target of “around 5%.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (January)/ Overtime Pay (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Bank Lending (February)/ Coincident Index (January)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (February)/ Leading Economic Index (January)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Car Sales (February)/ Motorbike Sales (February)

·       China National People’s Congress

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels.  The agenda will cover fiscal policy coordination and follow-up from the February G7 finance ministers meeting.

·       President von der Leyen participates in the Interinstitutional Actors meeting with António Costa, President of the European Council, Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, and Paschal Donohoe, President of the Eurogroup.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travels to Bosnia and Herzegovina for meetings with leaders.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Social Policy) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the challenges of the silver transformation.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Research Ministers in Brussels through March 11.

·       Workers at major airports in Germany are scheduled to go on a 24-hour strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Industrial Production (January)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (January)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (January)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Italy PPI (January)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (January)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (January)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (February)

·       Euro Area ECB Nagel Speech/ ECOFIN Meeting

·       Hungary Budget Balance (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Monetary Fund will discuss and conduct the fourth review of Egypt's loan program. 

·       A team from the IMF is scheduled to visit Lebanon to discuss possible financial assistance.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q4/ Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (January)

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriquez Parrilla visits South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (February)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (February)

Tuesday, March 11, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Cooperation between the United Nations and regional and subregional organizations (EU). This will be followed by consultations on DRC.

·       Today is the 5th anniversary of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaring COVID-19 a pandemic.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Greenland holds elections for the  Inatsisartut, their 31-member parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (February)/ Redbook (March/08)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (January)/ WASDE Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/07)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (January)

·       El Salvador PPI (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will pay a state visit to Indonesia through March 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q4

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index & Change (March)/ NAB Business Confidence (February)

·       Japan Household Spending (January)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q4/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q4/ GDP External Demand Q4/ GDP Price Index Q4/ GDP Private Consumption Q4/ Machine Tool Orders (February)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (December)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will host a meeting of military chiefs of staff of nations ready to offer military support for Ukraine.

·       Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europea (OSCE) Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioglu in Moscow.

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council will meet in Brussels.  They will discuss competitiveness and how to improve the business environment, cooperation in the field of taxation, and outcomes of the G20 finance ministers meeting.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travels to visit KFOR (The NATO-led mission in Kosovo).

·       The Paris Defense and Strategy Forum begins and runs through March 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (February)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (February)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (January)/ Auto Production (February)/ Auto Sales (February)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (February)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (January)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (February)

·       Germany Bundesbank Köhler-Geib Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (February)

Wednesday, March 12, 2025

Global

·       G7 Finance Ministers are scheduled to meet in Quebec, Canada.

·       The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is released.

·       The 12th annual World Ocean Summit & Expo begins in Tokyo and runs through March 13.

·       The BRICS Agriculture Working Group meets in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US and Russian diplomats will meet in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia to discuss a possible cease-fire in Ukraine.

·       President Trump’s 25 percent tariff on steel and aluminum goes into effect.

·       Ireland’s Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Micheál Martin will be in Washington DC to meet with President Trump.

·       Belize holds elections for their House of Representatives.

·       SpaceX Crew-10 mission, a Dragon spacecraft on a Falcon 9 rocket, launches from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida on a voyage to the International Space Station

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/07)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/07)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ CPI (February)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (March/07)/ Monthly Budget Statement (February)

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (January)/ Nominal Budget Balance (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Car Production (February)/ New Car Registrations (February)

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (February)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        AI-Semiconductor conference begins in Hanoi, Vietnam, and runs until Friday. Attendees are expected to include executives from Google DeepMind, IBM, Intel, TSMC, Samsung, MediaTek, Tokyo Electron, Panasonic, Qorvo, and Marvel.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (February)

·       Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q1/ PPI (February)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (January)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       India Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Manufacturing Production (January)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal market and industry) will meet in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the competitiveness compass and the clean industrial deal and ways to modernize the single market.

·       The European Parliament will convene in plenary session through March 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the 25th "ECB and Its Watchers" conference organized by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the wrap up and closing remarks at the 25th "ECB and Its Watchers" conference organized by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany

·       Romania Balance of Trade (January)

·       Turkey Current Account (January)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (January)

·       Spain Retail Sales (January)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (March)

·       Russia Inflation Rate (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mauritius celebrates Independence Day, marking when the country gained its independence from the UK in 1968.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (February)

·       South Africa Annual Budget Speech

Thursday, March 13, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan (The 1591 Committee).

·       The IEA publishes its monthly oil report.

·       The Jewish holiday of Purim will begin and be observed through March 14.

·       There will be a 'Blood Moon' total lunar eclipse, seen in North and South America.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Argentine teachers are expected to hold street protests across the country in opposition to President Javier Milei’s reform programs.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Bank Lending (January)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (January)

·       Canada Building Permits (January)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (March/08)/ PPI (February)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March/07)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/13)/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/12)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Industry and Trade Minister Nguyen Hong Dien will meet with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington to discuss reducing the two countries' trade imbalance.

·       Today is Holi, the two-day Hindu festival of colors, celebrating the arrival of spring and the triumph of good over evil.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (January)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (March/08)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/08)

·       Australia Building Permits (January)/ Private House Approvals (January)/ RBA Jones Speech

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The German Parliament (Bundestag) begins debating a € 500 billion infrastructure fund and amending the debt brake.

·       The 8th EU-South Africa Summit will be held in Cape Town, South Africa. The President of the European Council, António Costa, together with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, will represent the EU. South Africa will be represented by President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in an online fireside chat at EIOPA Sustainable Finance Conference 2025 "Driving Resilience and Action in a Warming World".

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (February)

·       Romania Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (January)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (February)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Germany Bundesbank Köhler-Geib Speech/ Bundesbank Balz Speech

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (January

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (February)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/07)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (January)/ Mining Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)

Friday, March 14, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the US Government shutdown deadline.  The government will shut down unless Congress passes a stop-gap Continuing Resolution (CR) by midnight.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (January)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (January)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (January)/ Wholesale Sales (January)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (February)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (March)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (March/14)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (January)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (February)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (January)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Rengo, Japan's largest labor confederation, is expected to release results from the first tabulation of this year's spring wage negotiations. Rengo-affiliated unions have called for an average wage hike of 6.09% this year, surpassing 6% for the first time since the early 1990s.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import Prices (February)/ Export Prices (February)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (February)/ Food Inflation (February)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (February/28)/ Deposit Growth (February/28)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/07)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (January)

·       China Vehicle Sales (February)/ New Yuan Loans (February)/ M2 Money Supply (February)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (February)/ Total Social Financing (February)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone participates on a panel discussion at event "Fifty years of Consob: present and future - Reflections in Bocconi" organized by Consob (Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa) and Bocconi University in Milan, Italy.

·       Germany Inflation Rate (February)/ Wholesale Prices (February)/ Current Account (January)

·       Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Construction Output (January)/ GDP (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (February)

·       Hungary Construction Output (January)

·       France Inflation Rate (February)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (February)

·       Italy Industrial Production (January)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (February)

·       Greece Construction Output Q4

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (January)/ Building Permits (January)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Russia Balance of Trade (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (February)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (February)

Saturday, March 15, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day in Hungary, celebrating the 1848 revolution against the Austrian Empire.

·       Students in Serbia are expected to hold mass-demonstrations against corruption in Belgrade, Serbia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 16, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro will lead anti-government protests.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Wholesale Prices (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Russia’s War on Ukraine At An Inflection Point, The EU Meets to Discuss Its Security Future, China’s People’s Political Consultative Conference and National People’s Congress Meet, Trump’s Canada/Mexico/China Tariffs Go Into Effect, and The ECB Sets Interest Rates

March 2 - 9, 2025

It is not often you can write that the coming week is likely to be truly historic, a true crossroads of where the world will go.  This appears to be one of those weeks.  Following the bizarre blow-up in the White House Oval Office between President Trump, Vice President Vance, and Ukrainian President Zelensky, the future of Ukraine’s freedom lies in the balance and Europe looks to be poised to begin pursuing their own security arrangements out of fear of being abandoned by the US after 80 years of mutual security arrangements.

Today (Sunday) saw British Prime Minister Keir Starmer hosting a summit in London where he called for a “coalition of the willing” to defend Ukraine.  Both the UK and France committed to sending peacekeeping troops to help in the efforts to reach a cease-fire.  Later this week, There will be a Special European Council meeting in Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine and what the EU should do as President Trump continues to attack President Zelensky and suggest the US will stop militarily supporting Ukraine.  As European Council President António Costa said, “We are living in a defining moment for Ukraine and European security.”

At the time of this writing, President Zelensky has told reporters he is still ready to sign a U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal despite the shouting match with President Trump and being kicked out of the White House.  But what is not clear is how – or even if – Trump and Zelensky can patch up their relationship to even sign the deal.

Meanwhile, China’s National People’s Congress and People’s Consultative Conference come together to meet in Beijing this week.   The meetings will offer important insights into where Beijing will steer the economy and how it might deal with President Trump and forthcoming tariffs.  The meetings will not be easy for Chinese leaders to successfully manage market expectations of economic policy.

The new US tariffs on China – now set at 20% by President Trump – are scheduled to go into effect this coming Saturday.  Canada and Mexico are also set to get hit with 25% tariffs by President Trump.  We would note that Trump indicated over the weekend he has ordered a new probe of Canada’s lumber exports to the US, suggesting he will place new tariffs on that sector, too.  Up to 30 percent of softwood lumber used to build houses in the US comes from Canada.  And a large percentage of gypsum (used for drywall) used in US housing comes from Canada.

We are likely to learn more about President Trump’s tariff agenda when he addresses a Joint Session of Congress on Tuesday.  The Annual State of the Union speech will offer Trump an opportunity to also lay out more details of his domestic and foreign policy agenda for the year.  He is expected to make a strong push for his signature tax and budget Reconciliation package currently being put together in the House of Representatives.

 Also this week, Canada’s Liberal Party will choose a new leader on Sunday to replace incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. 

 Turning to the global economic radar screen, the big event of the week is the European Central Bank meeting to decide interest rates Thursday.  Markets are expecting another likely 25 basis points. 

Markets are looking at major data releases this week out of Asia. China releases official PMIs for February as well as trade data while the People’s Congress is being held.

Bringing it back to the US, the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on Wednesday as well as the ISM indices.  Fed Chair Jay Powell will also give a speech on the state of the economy on Friday after jobs data is released that morning.    

Below is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, March 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The 97th Academy Awards ceremony is held, where they give a bunch of awards for movies most of us have never seen or heard of.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Tajikistan holds parliamentary and local elections.

·       Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces a deadline to get his proposed budget passed by the lower house of parliament.

·       Today is Peasant Day in Myanmar, held to celebrate the hard work of peasants. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is hosting an informal meeting with EU leaders on Ukraine and security in Europe. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte will also attend.

·       Austria's liberal Neos party members will vote to approve a coalition agreement with the center-right Austrian People's Party and the center-left Social Democratic Party.

·       Hamburg, Germany holds state elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 3, 2025

Global

·       The UN hosts the Organizational Session for the 2026 UN Water Conference at the United Nations Headquarters in New York. 

·       The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency meet in Vienna, Austria through March 7.

·       The UN hosts the 3rd meeting of countries party to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

·       Ambassador Christina Markus Lassen, Permanent Representative of Denmark and President of the Security Council for the month of March, will hold a press briefing on the agenda for the month. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2025 Pacific Operational Science & Technology (POST) five-day conference begins in Honolulu, Hawaii, hosted by the National Defense Industrial Association and the US Indo-Pacific Command.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in a moderated conversation before the National Association for Business Economics 41st Annual Economic Policy Conference.

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Business Confidence (February)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (January)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (February)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment & New Orders & Prices (February)/ Construction Spending (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       An International Monetary Fund delegation will arrive in Pakistan for the first review of Pakistan's bailout fund.

·       In the Philippines, Combined Arms Training Exercise “Catex” takes place in Luzon, Mindanao, and Visayas.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Terms of Trade Q4/ Import Prices Q4/ Export Prices Q4

·       Australia S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI (February)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (February)/ Company Gross Profits Q4/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (February)/ Business Inventories Q4/ Commodity Prices (February)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (January)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will participate in the Strategic Dialogue on the Future of the European Automotive Industry in Brussels.

·       He EU Central Asia Ministerial Meeting takes place in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan.

·       MWC Barcelona, the biggest annual event for the telecommunications industry, kicks off on Monday. The four-day event will welcome some of the biggest names in mobile networks and devices, satellites and more, including Huawei and Xiaomi of China, Japan's SoftBank and SK Hynix of South Korea.

·       NATO holds Dynamic Mantra 25 joint maritime exercises in the Mediterranean Sea through March 14.

·       Today is Bulgarian Independence Day, celebrating when the country became an independent state in 1878 after more than 500 years of Ottoman control.

·       Paris Fashion Week begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank  (ECB) Board Member Claudia Buch, who chairs the ECB Supervisory Board, gives a keynote speech at the18th Finanzplatztag event organized by Börsenzeitung in Frankfurt, Germany.  She is expected to talk about banking union, its challenges and achievements.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (February)/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (February)/ PPI (February)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (January)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ New Car Sales (February)

·       Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Full Year GDP Growth 2024/ Government Budget 2024/ New Car Registrations (February)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (January)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ M4 Money Supply (January)/ Net Lending to Individuals (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ CPI Flash (February)

·       Ukraine Current Account (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan PPI (January)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (February)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (February)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)/ M2 Money Supply (January)

Tuesday, March 4, 2025

Global

·       UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will be in Cairo, Egypt to join the Extraordinary Summit of the League of Arab States to discuss the reconstruction of Gaza.  Leaders from across the Arab world will come together in this emergency meeting to discuss what can be done to rebuild Gaza and on what potential timeframe. 

·       It is “Fat Tuesday” – otherwise known as Shrove Tuesday and in New Orleans, Louisiana, Mardi Gras – in advance of Lent.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US President Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress (the State of the Union Address).

·       US tariffs on Canada and Mexico are scheduled to go into effect, putting 25% tariffs on goods for both countries.  Additionally, the US is putting a 20% increase in tariffs on China’s goods.

·       The U.S. Supreme Court hears oral arguments in a Mexican lawsuit against U.S. gun manufacturers.

·       Mayoral elections are held in the US cities of Aspen, Colorado, Chattanooga, Tennessee, and Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in moderated discussion at a Bloomberg Invest event organized by Bloomberg LP in New York.

·       USA Redbook (March/01)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (March)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/28)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (February)

·       Colombia Exports (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the country's top political advisory body, and the legislative National People's Congress (NPC) both hold their annual meetings in Beijing. Premier Li Qiang is expected to announce economic growth and budget targets, as markets watch for signs of how Beijing will move to boost domestic demand and navigate U.S. trade tensions.

·       The Philippines will host the Asia-Pacific Trade Facilitation Conference 2025 in Manila through March 5.

·       South Korea launches its first alternative stock trading system with longer trading hours and lower fees, a move aimed at luring more investors. Nextrade will offer trading services from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m., challenging the Korea Exchange which has been the country's sole bourse since 1956.

·       Singapore hosts the inaugural Business Aviation Asia Forum & Expo, with more than 50 participating companies including Boeing Business Jets, Dassault Aviation and Honeywell. The three-day event will alternate with the biennial Singapore Airshow, one of Asia's largest industry expos.

·       Micronesia holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (January)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (March/04)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (January)/ Jobs/applications ratio (January)/ Capital Spending Q4/ Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes/ Retail Sales (January)/ Current Account Q4/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q4

·       Philippines PPI (January)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications ministers in Brussels through March 5.  There is no formal agenda.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will participate in the Strategic Dialogue on Steel in Brussels.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with Myanmar's military leader, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       France Budget Balance (January)/ New Car Registrations (February)

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q4

·       Spain Unemployment Change (February)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Euro Area Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Ireland Construction Output Q4

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (February)

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q4

Wednesday, March 5, 2025

Global

·       Today is Ash Wednesday, the start of the Lenten season, six weeks before Easter is celebrated in the Western rite of Christianity.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich in Washington, D.C.  to discuss Gaza and other regional issues.

·       The Ottawa Conference on Security and Defense begins in Ottawa, Canada and runs through March 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (January)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (February)

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (December)

·       US Federal Reserve Beige Book/MBA Mortgage Market Index (February/28)/ MBA Purchase Index (February/28)/ ADP Employment Change (February)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (February)/ ISM Services PMI (February)/ Factory Orders (January)/ ISM Services Business Activity/ Services Employment/ Services New Orders/ Services Prices (February)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February/28)/ Total Vehicle Sales (February)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q4/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (February)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (February)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (February)

·       Colombia PPI (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN-Cambodian Business Summit begins in Phnom Penh.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech at an IMF event entitled “Asia and the IMF: Resilience through Cooperation” in Tokyo.

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida gives a speech to local leaders in Shizuoka, Japan.

·       Australia RBA Hauser Speech/ Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (February)/ S&P Global Australia Composite & Services PMI (February)/ GDP Growth Rate/ Capital Expenditure/ Chain Price Index/ Final Consumption Q4/ RBA Payments System Board Meeting

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (February)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI (February)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (February)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (February)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (February)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February/21)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Services PMI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) will meet in Brussels.  They will discuss the current entry/exit system, the state of the Schengen Agreement, migration issues, and internal security issues.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with World Bank President Ajay Banga in Brussels.

·       Today is the 75th Anniversary of Josef Stalin’s death.  You might want to watch the 2018 movie “The Death of Stalin” to celebrate the death of this horrific tyrant.  It is both quite dark comedy and, amazingly, nearly 100 percent factually accurate about the bizarre internal social and political struggle among members of the Soviet Politburo that emerged following Stalin’s death.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Governing Council begins a two-day monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Chief Economist Huw Pill, Alan Taylor, and Megan Greene will testify before the UK Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee on the February Monetary Report.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (February)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ Business Confidence (February)/ Corporate Profits (December)/ Real Wage Growth (December)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (February)

·       France Industrial Production (January)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (February)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (February)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (February)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (February)/ PPI (January)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (February)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (February)

·       Serbia PPI (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (February)

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (February)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (February)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (February)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (February)/ Business Confidence Q1

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (February)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (February)

Thursday, March 6, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent speaks at the Economic Club of New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives an economic outlook at the Wall Street Journal CFO Network Summit, New York, New York.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in conversation on the economic outlook with some focus on the Birmingham, Alabama region.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (February)/ Industrial Production (January)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (February)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Initial Jobless Claims (March/01)/ Wholesale Inventories (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/28)/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/05)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/06)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Ivey PMI s.a (February)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (March/01)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/01)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Building Permits (January)/ Private House Approvals (January)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (February)/ Foreign Direct Investment (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be a Special European Council meeting in Brussels.  This emergency summit has been called to discuss next steps for Ukraine and Europe’s security.  As European Council President Antonio Costa said, “We are living a defining moment for Ukraine and European security.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank rate decision is announced, and a press conference is to be held.

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a  pre-recorded video message at the Women's Forum event "Equality – Really?! (Gerechtigkeit – Echt jetzt?!)" organized by Oesterreichische Nationalbank in Vienna, Austria.

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Romania Retail Sales (January)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (February)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Deposit Facility Rate/ Marginal Lending Rate/

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (February)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (February)/ New Car Registrations (February)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (February)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (February)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/28)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ghana celebrates Independence Day, when the country gained independence from Great Britain in 1957.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account Q4

Friday, March 7, 2025

Global

·       The first meeting of the BRICS Information & Communications Technologies Working Group under the chairmanship of Brazil (who is chairing the BRICS in 2025) will be held in Sao Paulo, Brazil. They are expected to discuss connectivity issues, space and environmental sustainability, and the digital ecosystem.   Also, the 3rd meeting of the BRICS Agriculture Working Group is being held in Sao Paulo.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech on the Economic Outlook at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a discussion entitled “Monetary Policy Transmission Post-COVID” at The University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech entitled” The Rebalancing of Labor Markets Across the World” at the Bank of Portugal’s Conference on Monetary Policy Transmission and the Labor Market, Lisbon, Portugal.  She gives a second speech later in the day at the Conference.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in panel discussion of the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum Report, “Monetary Policy Transmission Post-Covid" organized by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (February)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Brazil Bank Lending (January)/ Car Production (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (February)/ Auto Exports (February)/ Auto Production (February)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (February)/ Employment Change (February)/ Full & Part Time Employment Change (February)/ Participation Rate (February)/ Average Hourly Wages (February)/ Capacity Utilization Q4

·       USA Unemployment Rate (February)/ Average Hourly Earnings (February)/ Participation Rate (February)/ Government & Manufacturing Payrolls (February)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (February)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (March/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (January)/ Used Car Prices (February)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (February)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (January)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (February)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan and the U.K.'s economy ministers are scheduled to meet in Tokyo for what's been dubbed a first-of-its-kind "two-plus-two" dialogue -- typically a regular meeting of foreign and trade ministers. The pair are likely to commit to strengthening economic ties in the wake of growing uncertainty over Washington's trade policies.

·       Vietnam places temporary anti-dumping levies against Chinese steel products.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (January)

·       Philippines Industrial Production (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January & February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/28)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be a meeting of EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) in Brussels.  The agenda items include a policy debate on “insolvency, the rule of law as a pillar of democracy, and the fight against impunity, and fundamental rights including on the application of the EU Charter on Fundamental Rights.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the welcome address at the ECB International Women's Day 2025 conference "Closing the Financial Literacy Gap" in Frankfurt, Germany.  Later, she participates in a conversation with Claudia Buch, Klaas Knot, Annamaria Lusardi, Joachim Nagel, and Fabio Panetta at ECB International Women's Day 2025 conference "Closing the Financial Literacy Gap" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann will give a keynote lecture at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Research Conference entitled “holding anchor in turbulent waters”

·       Germany Factory Orders (January)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (February)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (February)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Spain Industrial Production (January)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (January)

·       Euro Area Employment Change Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Greece GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Ireland Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ GNP Q4/ Industrial Production (January)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Nigeria Balance of Trade (October)/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Balance of Trade (December)

Saturday, March 8, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil celebrates the last day of the Rio Carnival.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Elections are held in Western Australia for local legislative assembly and legislative council seats.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada’s Liberal Party selects a new leader.

·       Honduras holds primary elections.

·       Daylight Savings Time begins in the US.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Ukraine Peace Efforts Intensify as the 3rd Anniversary of Russia’s Invasion is Marked, Germany Holds Elections, and G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers Meet in South Africa

February 23 - March 1, 2025

Monday marks the 3rd anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.  In the shadow of this sad milestone, President Trump is continuing his rapid move to force peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, which are spurring multiple events this coming week.   

First, French President Emmanual Macron will travel to Washington on Monday for meetings with President Trump on the situation.  Later in the week, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will travel to Washington for talks, too.  The talks will include talks regarding Trump's threat to place tough new tariffs on Europe.  We would note that Polish President Andrzej Duda met with President Trump yesterday (Saturday) in Washington to discuss Ukraine and US-Polish security arrangements and cooperation.

In Europe, EU foreign affairs ministers will meet to discuss the current state of peace efforts and the situations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.  Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Ada will attend those meetings.

Meanwhile, results from Germany's elections are coming in today (Sunday).  As expected, the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) coalition led by Fredrik Mertz looks to have won the elections with 29 percent of the vote.  But in a historic first, the fa-right AfD Party came in second with more than 20 percent of the vote.  The CDU/CSU will likely have to form a coalition with either the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Green Party, or libertarian Free Democratic Party (if they reach the threshold of 5 percent required to be seated in the parliament – they are currently coming at 4.7 percent in exit polls) to form a ruling government.  Merz has said he will refuse to work with the AfD.

In Washington, Monday is the deadline for all federal workers to comply with a demand from Elon Musk's DOGE explaining their work or risk being fired.  A number of federal agencies, including the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) under new Director Kash Patel, have ordered employees to ignore the demand, leaving many federal workers confused as to what to do.

In Congress, the House will continue its efforts to hammer out a massive tax and budget Reconciliation bill in the face of a looming March 14 government shutdown.  Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) is hoping to hold a vote on the bill by the end of the week, but likely disagreements among various factions in the Republican Caucus are likely to derail the effort, particularly around efforts aimed at cutting Medicaid.  The Senate passed a $340 budget reconciliation bill (leaving tax for another Reconciliation later this year) on Friday.  President Trump has said he prefers the House strategy of rolling the giant budget and tax bill into "One big, beautiful bill," but Senate Republicans have still moved on their two-bill track as a backup in case the House fails.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, markets are looking to Friday's US PCE release—which the Federal Reserve uses as its favored inflation gauge—which comes after the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday and the durable goods report on Thursday. 

In Asia, Japan's CPI data is released on Friday following the PPI print on Tuesday.  In Europe, the European Central Bank's meeting minutes from their January meeting are out on Thursday.  Germany, France, and Italy publish inflation prints on Friday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, February 23, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Guyana Republic Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Japanese Emperor Naruhito’s 65th birthday.

·       Today is National Day in Brunei, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany holds parliamentary elections that will determine the new leadership of the country.  Christian Social Union leader Fredrik Mertz is seen as the likely next Chancellor.  However, it is unclear what sort of coalition he will form to avoid the surging ultra-rightwing AfD Party.

·       Russia celebrates Defender of the Fatherland Day, otherwise known in Russia as Men’s Day, aimed at honoring men who serve in the armed forces.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Hezbollah's former Secretary General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah will be buried in Lebanon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 24, 2025

Global

·       The UN’s 58th session of the Human Rights Council begins in Geneva, Switzerland.  UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will open the session with a keynote speech.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (February)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile PPI (January)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (February)

·       Canada BoC Gravelle Speech

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (January)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (February)

·       Paraguay PPI (January)

·       Peru Current Account Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       British Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds will travel to Delhi, India, for the 15th round of U.K.-India free trade negotiations.

·       Today is the birthday of the Japanese Emperor Naruhito.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Indonesia launches Danantara, a sovereign wealth fund with more than $900 billion in assets under management. Projects to be financed by the new fund are seen as crucial to attracting foreign investment and reaching Jakarta's goal of 8% annual economic growth.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Masato Kanda becomes Asian Development Bank president, succeeding Masatsugu Asakawa, who stepped down yesterday. Kanda will complete the unexpired term of Asakawa, which ends on November 23, next year.

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q4/ Credit Card Spending (January)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (January)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (January)

·       Taiwan M2 Money Supply (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the current state of play in Ukraine, the situation in Syria and Lebanon, and the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar will attend the meetings.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the agricultural markets in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

·       EU President Ursuala von der Leyen will travel to Ukraine to meet with President Zelensky.

·       The EU-Israel Association Council will meet in Brussels. The meeting will engage in political dialogue, focusing on the conflict in Gaza and Israeli-Palestinian relations, regional issues, including Iran, and global issues.

·       A delegation of the EU Internal Market and Consumer Protection Committee will travel to Washington DC to meet with US Congress, US government entities, academics and industries representatives, as part of efforts to strengthen transatlantic cooperation in key policy areas.

·       A delegation from the EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee will go to London to discuss EU-UK relations. They will cover competitiveness and investment, Ukraine’s reconstruction and sanctions against Russia, banking supervision, financial services, and digital finance. MEPs will meet, among others, the Bank of England Deputy Governor, the Financial Secretary to the Treasury and members of House of Lords and House of Commons 

·       Russia celebrates Day of the Defenders of the Motherland.

·       Estonia celebrates Independence Day.  Markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of England begins a two-day conference at its London conference center on the theme “The Future of the Central Bank Balance Sheet” to promote policy-relevant research in this field by bringing together researchers from academia, central banks and international institutions.

·       Turkey Business Confidence (February)/ Capacity Utilization (February)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q4

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (January)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (February)/ Ifo Current Conditions (February)/ Ifo Expectations (February)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (February)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI Final (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ruling AKP party holds congress meeting.

·       UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan makes a state visit to Italy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (January)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (January)/ Total Credit Growth (January)

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (December)/ Total Credit (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Tuesday, February 25, 2025

Global

·       There will be a virtual meeting of G7 heads of state will be held to discuss potential avenues for a peaceful resolution.

·       Brazil will lead the first BRICS+ Sherpas meeting as president of the bloc in Rio de Janeiro. 

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing in the Middle East followed by consultations.

·       The UN Biodiversity 2025 Conference resumes sessions for the 16th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity in Rome. Agenda includes securing $200bn annually for biodiversity by 2030.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump hosts French President Emmanuel Macron for meetings on Ukraine and US-EU trade.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will give a speech on Financial Stability followed by Q&A at the Yale School of Management in New Haven, Connecticut.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan speaks before the 2025 BEAR (Bank of England Agenda for Research) Conference: “The Future of the Central Bank Balance Sheet" in London.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on “Inflation Then and Now" before the Rotary Club of Richmond.

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (February)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (January)

·       USA Redbook (February/22)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (December)/ House Price Index (December)/ CB Consumer Confidence (February)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing & Services Revenues Index (February)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (February)/ Money Supply (January)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/21)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2025 Asia-Pacific Forum on Sustainable Development opens at the UN Conference Center in Bangkok, running until Friday.

·       South Korea's Constitutional Court will hold its final hearing for President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment trial.

·       The ASEAN Future Forum 2025 begins in Hanoi, Vietnam.

·       China’s 62nd Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) begins in the eastern city of Hangzhou.

·       New Zealand's Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will visit Vietnam through February 28 to discuss mutual security and trade issues.

·       India and Japan will conduct joint urban warfare and counterterrorism drills near Mount Fuji. 

·       The Philippines and Japan hold a Defense Ministerial meeting in Manila.

·       Thailand and the U.S. jointly host the 43rd annual Cobra Gold exercise, the largest and longest-running military exercise in Southeast Asia. More than 8,000 personnel from the two host countries as well as Singapore, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and Malaysia will take part. China, an emerging supplier of military equipment to Thailand, and India will join humanitarian assistance training.

·       The Philippines celebrates People Power Day, commemorating when in 1986 demonstrations took place that began leading to the end of the Marcos regime.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (December)/ Leading Index (December)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 3rd anniversary of Russia launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian war that started in February 2014.

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the Future of Europe and the legislative agenda.

·       The European Commission will present its Clean Industrial Deal and its "simplification omnibus" package. 

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez visits Kyiv for meetings with President Zelensky.

·       NATO countries train in extreme cold conditions in Finland's Lapland during "Arctic Forge 25".

Economic Reports/Events –

European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a keynote speech at the Bank of England’s Annual Research Conference “The Future of the Central Bank Balance Sheet” in London.

European Union New Car Registrations (January)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Hungary Gross Wage (December)/ Deposit Interest Rate (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (February)

·       Euro Area Negotiated Wage Growth Q4

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Kuwait celebrates National Day. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (December)

Wednesday, February 26, 2025

Global

·       The World Trade Organization holds a three-day trade policy review of Ukraine.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan, followed by consultations. In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold consultations on 1718 Committee (dealing with North Korea).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will hold his first cabinet meeting.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on “Inflation Then and Now" before the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in a conversation on the economic outlook and housing before the Urban Land Institute's annual Housing Opportunity Conference.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (February/21)/ New Home Sales (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February/21)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Building Permits Final (January)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (January)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (January)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Defense ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) hold a retreat on the Malaysian island of Penang to discuss strengthening regional security cooperation and strategic unity. On Friday, the bloc's economy ministers meet at Desaru in Malaysia's southern Johor state.

·       Nikkei’s Japan-India-Africa Business Forum his held in Tokyo.  A number of senior government officials and senior executives from various industries are scheduled to speak.

·       Hong Kong unveils its budget for 2025, as a protracted downturn in the local property market and other factors weigh on the government's finances. Financial Secretary Paul Chan will be in the spotlight as observers look for any signs of changes to the city's low-tax structure, key to its appeal as a financial hub.

·       Indonesia launches its first bullion bank in a move described by President Prabowo Subianto as essential for storing gold reserves extracted from local mines. The new bank is aimed at accommodating Indonesia's growing capability to produce gold bars.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Construction Work Done Q4/ Monthly CPI Indicator (January)

·       Japan Coincident Index Final (December)/ Leading Economic Index Final (December)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (January)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer travels to Washington, D.C., for meetings with President Trump to discuss trade and Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra gives the Dow Lecture, “Trade fragmentation and monetary policy”, at the offices of the think-tank the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in London.

·        

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence MAR

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (December)

·       France Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Spain PPI (January)

·       Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion/ Industrial Production (January)

·       Ireland Construction Output Q4

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Infotopia 2025 Conference begins in the UAE.

·       Kuwait celebrates Liberation Day, marking the day Iraq was defeated after invading the country in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (January)

Thursday, February 27, 2025

Global

·       The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in South Africa through February 28.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the 2713 Committee (sanctions on Al-Shabaab). Afterwards, a briefing on the United Nations peacekeeping operations: Police Commissioners is scheduled to be held in the afternoon.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Anguilla holds parliamentary elections.

·       Ontario Canada holds snap legislative assembly elections.

·       The Dominican Republic celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give a speech on community banking at the Fort Hays State University Robbins Banking Institute Lecture Series, Hays, Kansas.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on “Financial Stability" before the Columbia University/Bank Policy Institute: 2025 Bank Regulation Research Conference.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook before the Lyons Economic Forecast, presented by the University of Delaware's Center for Economic Education and Entrepreneurship.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (February)/ Current Account (January)/ Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Canada Current Account Q4/ Average Weekly Earnings (December)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (January)/ GDP Price Index Q4/ Initial Jobless Claims (February/22)/ Real Consumer Spending Q4/ Pending Home Sales (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/21)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (February)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/27)/ Kansas Fed Index (February)/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/26)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Economic Ministers' Meeting takes place in Kota Tinggi, Malaysia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (February)

·       Great Britain Car Production (January)

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q4/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q4/ Private Capital Expenditure Q4

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Malaysia PPI (January)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (December)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission will visit India to advance free trade talks and hold the second meeting of the EU-India Trade and Technology Council through February 28.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank publishes minutes from the last rate-setting meeting.

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (January)/ Economic Confidence Index (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/21)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (January)

·       France PPI (January)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (January)/ Jobseekers Total (January)

·       Slovakia Business and Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (February)

·       Switzerland GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January)/ Economic Sentiment (February)/ Consumer Confidence Final (February)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)/ Industrial Sentiment (February)/ Selling Price Expectations (February)/ Services Sentiment (February)

·       Italy Business and Consumer Confidence (February)/ Industrial Sales (December)

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (January)

·       Greece Total Credit (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Syria is expected to announce its new government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (January)/ Private Bank Lending (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (January)

Friday, February 28, 2025

Global

·       Ramadan begins in the evening and goes through March 30.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Yamandu Orsi takes office as President of Uruguay.

·       Argentine President Javier Milei gives an annual speech before the Legislative Assembly.

·       Brazil holds Rio Carnival 2025.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research 2025 SIEPR Economic Summit.

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (January)/ Nominal Budget Balance (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q4/ GDP (December)/ Budget Balance (December)

·       Chile Copper Production (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       USA Core PCE Price Index (January)/ Personal Income & Spending (January)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (January)/ PCE Price Index (January)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (January)/ Wholesale Inventories (January)/ Core PCE Price Index (January)/ Chicago PMI (February)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/28)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (January)/ Cement Production (January)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (February)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (February)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan celebrates Peace Memorial Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (February)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Foreign Bond Investment (February/22)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/22)/ Housing Starts (January)/ Construction Orders (January)

·       Australia Housing Credit (January)/ Private Sector Credit (January)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (February)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (January)/ Import Prices (January)/ Export Prices (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Private Investment & Consumption (January)/ Business Confidence (February)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (January)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (February)/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       India Government Budget Value (January)/ Bank Loan Growth (February/14)/ Deposit Growth (February/14)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/21)/ Infrastructure Output (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Fiscal Year GDP Growth 2nd Est 2024-25

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (February)/ Wholesale Prices (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi.

·       Andalusia celebrates Andalusia Day, celebrating when the region of Spain became autonomous.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Dave Ramsden gives the keynote speech at South Africa’s Stellenbosch University on monetary policy in a world of geopolitical fragmentation.

·       Germany Retail Sales (January)/ Import Prices (January)/ Unemployed Persons (February)/ Unemployment Change (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (February)/ Bavaria CPI (February)/ Brandenburg CPI (February)/ Hesse CPI (February)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (February)/ Saxony CPI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ Participation Rate (January)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (February)

·       Hungary PPI (January)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (January)/ KOF Leading Indicators (February)/ Economic Sentiment Index (February)

·       France Inflation Rate (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Household Consumption (January)/ Private & Non-Farm Payrolls Q4

·       Spain Current Account (December)/ Business Confidence (February)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI (January)

·       Greece Retail Sales (December)/ PPI (January)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (February)

·       Ireland Average Weekly Earnings Q4/ Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ GNP Q4/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (January)/ Private Sector Credit (January)/ Budget Balance (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (February)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (February)

Saturday, March 1, 2025

Global

·       Today is the first day of the meteorological spring.

·       Denmark takes the Chair of the UN Security Council for the month of March.

·       NASA’s Europa Clipper mission is due to make a fly-by of Mars en route to Jupiter’s moon Europa, where it will become the first mission to conduct a detailed scientific investigation of the moon.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the end of the 30-day suspension of US 25% tariffs President Trump is placing on Canada and Mexico.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea celebrates Independence Movement Day, a national holiday commemorating the protests against Japanese colonial rule.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       China NBS Non-Manufacturing, Manufacturing, & General PMI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The 97th Academy Awards ceremony is held, where they give a bunch of awards for movies most of us have seen or heard of.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Tajikistan holds parliamentary and local elections.

·       Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba faces a deadline to get his proposed budget passed by the lower house of parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Big Moves Toward Ukrainian Peace Talks, The EU Seeks to Head Off A Trade War with the US, Germany Holds What Could Be Historic Elections, The Israeli-Hezbollah Cease-Fire Is Set to Expire, and Markets Look to the Release FOMC Minutes

February 16 - 23, 2025

It will be a big week geopolitically - potentially historic in several ways.  First, there is rapid movement toward establishing a framework to begin peace negotiations with Russia over its war on Ukraine.  President Trump is dispatching US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Walz, and Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff to Saudi Arabia Monday to meet with Russian counterparts.  The meeting aims to begin setting up the parameters for a possible meeting between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia in the coming weeks to start negotiating a Ukrainian peace deal. 

As Rubio/Walz/Witkoff meet in Riyadh with the Russians, Trump’s Special Envoy to Russia and Ukraine, retired US Army General Keith Kellogg, will meet with EU President Ursula von der Leyen and then NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on the peace effort.   

As all this is taking place, French President Emmanual Macron will be convening an “emergency” meeting of EU leaders (leaders of Germany, Britain, Italy, Poland, Sapin, the Netherlands, and Denmark, as well as the NATO Secretary-General and the Presidents of the European Council and European Commission) to discuss what President Trump is doing and what they should be doing.  UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said this “is a once-in-a-generation moment for our national security.” All this being said, the two massive questions on the table are:  What does Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky think about what Trump is saying and doing?  And what exactly is President Trump’s vision for a peace deal, and does it include Ukraine giving up the land Russia has seized?   All in all, it appears Zelensky and Ukrainian concerns are being somewhat left to the side.  Also, coordination between the US and NATO partners lags behind Trump’s lightning-speed efforts. 

Meanwhile, in Washington, EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is flying over to meet with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to urgently discuss how to avoid a looming US-EU trade war, which will be launched by President Trump’s promised reciprocal tariffs.  Sefcovic is not scheduled at this point to meet with President Trump directly, but rumors abound that this might actually happen.  Markets need to watch this trip closely.

Also happening in Europe this week, German voters head to the polls on Sunday to elect a new government.  Christian Democrat Party Leader Fredrik Merz is on track to see his party win in the polls along with their Bavarian partners, the Christian Social Union (currently at 29.2%).  The question is: Which other parties will they form a coalition with to avoid at all costs working with the ultra-far-right AfD Party, which is now currently in second place in the polls (21.3%)?  Most Germans – indeed, most of Europe – are shocked and dismayed to see the AfD – which has repeatedly been shown to have a significant number of members who are Nazi sympathizers gain such an uptick in popularity.  And that makes this election potentially historic as the  Merz will likely have to go in with the Green Party and the left-of-center Social Democrats (SPD) led by current Chancellor Olaf Scholz. 

Turning to the Middle East, Monday marks the grim milestone of the 500th day since the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, which killed more than 2,500 civilians and resulted in the taking of 251 hostages.  While the Gaza cease-fire remains incredibly fragile, with sporadic attacks taking place, hope remains that the rest of the hostages will be released in the coming weeks.   Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah is technically set to expire.  However, most observers expect it to be extended.  Israel is asking for a ten-day extension (until February 28) before they pull back the last of their troops from Southern Lebanon.  Hezbollah is not likely to want to return to full-scale fighting, having been severely mauled by Israeli forces and having a large portion of its military leadership killed. 

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, markets are keenly awaiting the release of the FMOC’s minutes on Wednesday to get a clearer sense of just how worried the Federal Reserve is about a resurgence of inflation and if there is any chance for further rate cuts this year. 

In Asia, Japan releases Q4 GDP estimates, January CPI figures, and trade and machinery order data.  Australia’s Reserve Bank meets on interest rates on Tuesday.

In Europe, the UK releases labor figures on Tuesday, inflation data on Wednesday, and consumer confidence on Friday.  Germany releases the ZEW Survey on Tuesday, and we will see the Eurozone consumer confidence report on Thursday. 

Below is what else we are watching closely in the coming week:

Sunday, February 16, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

·       Canadian Trade Minister Mary Ng leads a delegation of 220 representatives from 140 Canadian organizations on a trade mission to Australia as part of the Australia-Canada Economic Leadership Forum in Sydney.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea has a national holiday celebrating the birth of former leader Kim Jon-il who died in 2011.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, his conservative challenger Friedrich Merz plus Alice Weidel of the AfD, and Robert Habeck from the Greens take part in a four-way TV debate on German channel RTL ahead of next week’s federal election

·       Today is the first anniversary of Alexei Navalny’s murder in Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The 8th Indian Ocean Conference takes place in Oman.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union Heads of State and Government Summit finishes.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 17, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security focused on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Michael Walz, and President Trump’s Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff will travel to Saudi Arabia for meetings with Russian envoys to lay the groundwork for negotiations seeking to end the war in Ukraine.

·       EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will travel to Washington for meetings with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and White House National Economic Director Kevin Hassett in an effort to ward off possible trade tariffs on the EU.

·       Today is President’s Day in the US, a national holiday.  Financial markets and banks are closed.  The US House of Representatives is out of session this week in honor of President’s Day.  The US Senate is in session this week.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give brief remarks on the economy and bank regulation at the American Bankers Association (ABA) Conference for Community Bankers, Phoenix, Arizona.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the UNSW Macroeconomic Workshop, Sydney, Australia.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook before the Global Interdependence Center Central Banking Series Conference with the University of the Bahamas.

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Housing Starts (January)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (December)

·       Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ ISE Economic Activity (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping will chair a Tech Symposium with leading Chinese tech CEOs in Beijing in an effort to spur further growth in the sector.

·       Malaysia will host the China Conference: Southeast Asia 2025 in Kuala Lumpur. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will speak.

·       Sri Lanka's three-month-old government will present its first national budget as the country faces pressure from the International Monetary Fund to reach a primary fiscal surplus of 2.3 % of GDP and a tax-to-GDP ratio of 14% by next year. The IMF's conditions are part of a $3 billion bailout to help the country recover from its 2022 economic meltdown.

·       Vietnam’s Parliament is scheduled to vote on a series of major civil service reforms.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (January)/ Visitor Arrivals (December)

·       Japan GDP Growth Annualized Prel Q4/ GDP Price Index Q4/ Capacity Utilization (December)/ Industrial Production Final (December)/ Tertiary Industry Index (December)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Full Year GDP Growth 2024

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q4

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (December)

·       China Vehicle Sales (January)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (December)/ Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Services PMI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European heads of state gather in Paris for an emergency meeting to discuss and potentially agree on a common proposal to resolve the Ukraine War. The meeting is being convened in response to President Trump’s fast-moving effort to meet with Russian President Putin to discuss Trump’s proposal to end the war.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with General Keith Kellogg (ret.), the US Special Presidential Envoy for Ukraine and Russia in Brussels.  Kellogg will also meet with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in Brussels to discuss President Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine.

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels to discuss the state of convergence in Bulgaria, the macroeconomic outlook for the Euro area, and the work program for the group up to July 2025.  European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will participate.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hosts Serbia's Foreign Minister Marko Duric for meetings in Moscow.

·       Romania’s far-right opposition parties are expected to submit a no-confidence vote for Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu’s government.

·       There will be an informal meeting of the EU General Affairs Council in Brussels through February 18.

·       The US Army Europe and Africa will hold its biennial exercise in the Arctic called Arctic Forge 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (January)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (December)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (December)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (December)/ European Commission Winter Forecasts/ ECOFIN Meeting

·       Germany Bundesbank Nagel Speech

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (December)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (January)

·       Turkey Auto Production (January)/ Auto Sales (January)/ Budget Balance (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 500th day anniversary of Hamas’ attack on Israel and the taking of hostages.

· Today is February 17th, Revolution Day, a national holiday celebrating when the people of Libya threw off the rule of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi’s 40 years of rule.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q4/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January)

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Tuesday, February 18, 2025

Global

·       The World Trade Organization begins a two-day council meeting in Geneva.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Practicing multilateralism, reforming and improving global governance.  China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi will chair the meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Lula da Silva hosts Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in Sao Paulo.

·       Bermuda holds elections for its House of Assembly.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Michael Barr will give a speech on Artificial Intelligence and Financial Stability at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks and participates in a moderated discussion before the 2025 Conference for Community Bankers hosted by the American Bankers Association.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI Median (January)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (January)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (February)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (February)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (December)/ Foreign Bond Investment (December)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (December)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, begins a three-day visit to Japan to review the country’s nuclear power plants.

·       South Korea's constitutional court continues hearings this week on whether President Yoon Suk Yeol should be removed from office over his short-lived martial law order in December. That ruling is expected early next month. On Thursday, a Seoul district court will begin Yoon's criminal trial on insurrection charges.

·       Singapore’s Prime Minister and Finance Minister, Lawrence Wong, delivers the government's 2025 budget in a critical election year. As a key step in preparing for the city-state's general election due by November, observers are expecting new policies and generous support measures aimed at tackling the most pressing voter concerns, such as rising living costs.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (January)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (February/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Th EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss EU competitiveness and improving the business environment, the situation in Ukraine, the EU budget for 2026, and the economic governance framework.

·       France’s upper House of Parliament is expected to debate and vote on the highly controversial 2025 Social Security budget.

·       Today is the inauguration of President Zoran Milanovic in Croatia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has a “fireside chat” in Brussels with Jeromin Zettelmeyer, director of Belgian think-tank Bruegel, on “preserving and enhancing open financial markets.”

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone will participate in a livestreamed MNI Connect video conference “The ECB's Balance Sheet Policies and Implications in the Current Economic Context”.

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (January)/ Claimant Count Change (January/Labour Productivity Final Q3

·       Switzerland Industrial Production Q4

·       France Inflation Rate Final (January)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (February)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (February)/ ZEW Current Conditions (February)

·       Belarus GDP (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement expires unless extended. The initial deal, brokered by the US and France, began in November and halted nearly 14 months of conflict by requiring both sides to withdraw from southern Lebanon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (December)/ Total Credit (December)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Gambia Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Unemployment Rate Q4/ Unemployed Persons Q4/ Annual Budget Speech

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (December)

Wednesday, February 19, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions. This will be followed by consultations. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund will host the third FII Priority Summit in Miami Beach, United States, through Feb. 21, and U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to attend and speak.

·       The Caricom Meeting of the Conference of Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community meet in Barbados.

·       The US Senate’s Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Department of Labor nominee Lori Chavez-DeRemer.

·       The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) begins in Washington, D.C. and runs through Saturday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Household Balance Sheets” at the Martin H. Crego Lecture in Economics, Vassar College, Poughkeepsie, New York.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Open Market Committee Minutes are released.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (February/14)/ Housing Starts (January)/ Redbook (February/15)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 22.5 to 30 yrs/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/14

·       Brazil Business Confidence (February)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam’s Parliament vote on proposed rail line to China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board member Jajimi Takata gives a speech to local business leaders in Miyagi, Japan.

·       New Zealand PPI Input & Output Q4/ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Machinery Orders (December)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (January)/ RBA Chart Pack/ Wage Price Index Q4

·       China House Price Index (January)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (January)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (February)

·       India M3 Money Supply (February/07)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission will present its “vision” for agriculture.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will give an annual speech at Russia's State Duma on Russia's foreign policy priorities. 

·       The French Parliament will examine a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Francois Bayrou tabled by the center-left Socialist Party for his recent controversial remarks on immigration. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Payments Victoria Cleland speaks on a panel at the Currency Research Central Bank Payments summit in Paris on “what can be the next game changer.”

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI Output & Input (January)/ Retail Price Index (January)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ Current Account (December)

·       Italy Current Account (December)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (December)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (January)/ Current Account (December)

·       Russia PPI (January)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The leaders of five Arab countries hold a summit on Donald Trump's Gaza plan in Cairo.  The leaders of Egypt, Qatar, the UAE, and Jordan will attend.  Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas is rumored to be attending, too.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman Inflation Rate (January)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana presents the annual national budget to parliament.

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

Thursday, February 20, 2025

Global

·       G20 Foreign Ministers will gather in Johannesburg, South Africa, to meet. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to skip the meeting.  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Russia's Sergei Lavrov will be there.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg will visit Kyiv, Ukraine, for meetings regarding the Russia-Ukraine war and President Trump’s efforts to start peace talks.

·       The US Senate’s Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Linda McMahon to be Secretary of Education.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives a speech on supervision and regulation at the Georgetown University Law Center in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives a speech entitled “Navigating Inflation Waves While Riding on the Phillips Curve” at the 2025 Whittington Lecture, McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University, Washington, D.C.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks and participates in a moderated conversation on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Economic Club of New York.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Chicagoland Chamber Mid-Market Chicago event.

·       Mexico Retail Sales (December)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (January)/ PPI (January)/ Raw Materials Prices (January)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (February/15)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (February)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (February)/ CB Leading Index (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/14)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February/14)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/20)/Fed Balance Sheet (February/19)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Colombia Cement Production (December)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Halifax International Security Forum starts a two-day conference in Taipei. It is the first time the Forum has been held in Taiwan, and the conference's theme is to "highlight Taiwan's thriving democracy for global leaders," with a series of on- and off-the-record discussions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (February)/ PPI (January)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (February/15)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/15)

·       Australia Unemployment Rate (January)/ Participation Rate (January)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (February)

·       Indonesia Current Account Q4/ M2 Money Supply (January)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (January)/ Current Account Q4

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ukraine Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga is due to address the IISS-Asia strategic think tank in Singapore (the Shangri La Conference).

· Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban gives the annual State of the Nation speech.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Sasha Mills, executive director of financial market infrastructure at the Bank of England, speaks at the UK T+1 Accelerated Settlement Market event hosted by KPMG in London.

·       Germany PPI (January)/ Bundesbank Nagel Speech

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (January)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/14)/ Central Government Debt (January)

·       Greece Current Account (December)

·       Italy Construction Output (December)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (January)/ Employment Growth (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (December)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (February)

·       Great Britain CBI Industrial Trends Orders (February)/ Gfk Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Slovakia Current Account (December)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (January)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (January)/ Total Credit Growth (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The French Army will officially hand over control of their military base in Abidjan, Ivory Coast – one of France’s last outposts in Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (December)

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, February 21, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on Central Bank Communication at the Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California.

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final Q4/ Economic Activity (December)

·       Canada Retail Sales (December)/ Retail Sales Final (December)/ BoC Gov Macklem Speech

·       USA S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)/ Existing Home Sales (January)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (February)/Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (February/21)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (January)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (January)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (February)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Australia S&P Global Australia Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (February)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Jibun Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (January)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/14)

·       China FDI (YTD) (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a keynote speech at the FIW-Research Conference on International Economics in Vienna, Austria.

·       Great Britain Retail Sales (January)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (January)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (January)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

·       France Business Confidence (February)/ Business Climate Indicator (February)/ HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

·       Italy Inflation Rate Final (January)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (January)

·       Serbia PPI (January)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q4

Saturday, February 22, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in St. Lucia, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan's Defense Minister Gen Nakatani visits the Philippines for talks with his Filipino counterpart, Gilbert Teodoro, including about an intelligence-sharing agreement. The move follows Tokyo's supply of air defense radar equipment to Manila in 2023, and forms part of an effort to strengthen defense collaboration with like-minded countries around China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the Day of Fraternity and Cohesion Day in Algeria, a national holiday celebrating the revolution in 2019, throwing off the autocratic reign of power of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 23, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Guyana Republic Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Japanese Emperor Naruhito’s 65th birthday.

·       Today is National Day in Brunei, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany holds parliamentary elections that will determine the new leadership of the country.  Christian Social Union leader Fredrik Mertz is seen as the likely next Chancellor.  But it is unclear what sort of coalition he will after form to avoid the surging ultra-rightwing AfD Party.

·       Russia celebrates Defender of the Fatherland Day, otherwise known in Russia as Men’s Day, aimed at honoring men who serve in the armed forces.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Hezbollah's former Secretary General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah will be buried in Lebanon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Global Week Ahead

The AI Action Summit Convenes in Paris, Trump Meets with Indian Prime Minister Modi as Secretary of State Rubio Meets with EU Foreign Ministers, and Powell Goes to Capitol Hill 

February 9 - 16, 2025

Europe serves as the host of two important geopolitical events this week.  First, the growing opportunity and risk of Artificial Intelligence (AI) dominate the attention of world leaders and prominent business CEOs this week as the AI Action Summit kicks off in Paris.  Co-hosted by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron, the event will include attendees from 80 countries, including U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.  There are expected to be more than 100 side events, and in total, more than 10,000 people will attend.   The event is expected to focus on both the risks and opportunities AI offers.

Second, European foreign ministers will gather and meet with newly sworn-in U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday for the first time.  Rubio will also meet with Ukrainian Foreign minster Andrii Sybiha to discuss the situation in Ukraine and likely President Trump’s plans to seek a peace treaty with Russia.  Rubio will then travel on to the Munich Security Conference in Germany following by visits to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to discuss the situation in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.

While all this is going on, in the U.S., President Trump will meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington to discuss trade issues and how to further expand the mutual defense and security relationship between India and the U.S. including the opportunity for India to increase purchases of leading U.S. military technology.  The relationship between Trump and Modi was strong during his first term and has remained so ever since.  What market are likely to be focused on most of all is any discussion between the two leaders over attracting manufacturing in China to India and the U.S.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this coming week, markets will be focused on Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s semiannual economic reports to Congress.  Powell starts Tuesday when he testifies before the Senate Banking Committee and then on Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee.

Powell’s testimony comes as US CPI, retail sales, and industrial production reports are released this week. 

Turning to Asia, China’s CPI and PPI are out this week, and Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey and PPI are released this week.   In Europe, the UK’s 4th quarter GDP is out as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde meets with the European Parliament to discuss the economy and ECB policy.

Below is what else we are watching closely in the coming week:

Sunday, February 9, 2025

Global

·         Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador holds presidential elections and parliamentary elections.  137 seats in the National Assembly are up for a vote. And incumbent President Daniel Noboa is likely to win re-election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese asset freeze sanctions on 18 Chinese companies for helping Russia evade sanctions will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will transition from the Soviet-era BRELL grid to the Continental Europe Synchronous Area.

·       Kosovo holds parliamentary elections for 120 seats.

·       Lichtenstein holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Prince Karim Al-Hussaini, the Aga Khan IV and spiritual leader of Ismaili Muslims will be buried in Aswan, Egypt.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 10, 2025

Global

·       The AI Action Summit convenes in Paris begins in Paris.  It will be co-chaired by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron.  Multiple leaders from around the world are expected to attend.

·       United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres travels to Paris to attend the AI Action Summit.  He is expected to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and other leaders on the sidelines of the Summit to discuss other issues including Ukraine, Syria, and Gaza.

·       The United Nations he Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Candidates for the Organization of American States' new secretary general will present their candidacies.

·       The Delphi Forum will begin in Washington, D.C.  The Greek-focused forum will include speakers from Congress and business.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Auto Production (January)

·       Brazil Car Production (January)/ New Car Registrations (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Bank of Canada Market Participants Survey

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s new targeted 10 percent tariffs on the US are due to take effect. 

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi travels to Paris to co-chair the AI Action Summit through Tuesday.  He goes on to Washington to meet with President Trump on Wednesday and Thursday.

·       Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown will visit China through February 14.  New Zealand has objected to the meetings over security concerns.

·       US and South Korean military forces will take part in a live-fire training exercise in South Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Current Account (December)/ Bank Lending (January)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (January)

·       Australia Building Permits (December)/ Private House Approvals (December)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (December)/ Construction Output Q4

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q4

·       China New Yuan Loans (January)/ M2 Money Supply (January)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (January)/ Total Social Financing (January)/ Vehicle Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers for Development in Warsaw, Poland.

·       German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will meet European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius in Berlin, Germany.

·       Church of England General Synod meeting begins. On the agenda are safeguarding proposals following the independent review by Keith Makin into the church’s handling of allegations of serious abuse by the late Archbishop John Smyth and other church leaders.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will brief member of the European Parliament on
the state of European and global economic affairs as well as giving an update on the European Central Bank’s activities.  The meeting takes place in Strasbourg, France.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Market Infrastructure  Sasha Mills will deliver remarks at the Chair/CEO/INEDs Roundtable for UK Financial Market Infrastructure firms.

·       Netherlands Manufacturing Production (December)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (December)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Participation Rate (December)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (December)

·       Greece Industrial Production (December)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (January)

·       Germany Bundesbank Balz Speech

·       Hungary Budget Balance (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran’ celebrates Revolution Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (January)

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (December)/ SACCI Business Confidence (January)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (January)

Tuesday, February 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee to present his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

·       Jordan's King Abdullah II will meet with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C.   They will discuss the situation in Gaza as well as Syria. Abdullah is also expected to discuss the pause of US Agency for International Development (AID) aid to Jordan which has been paused.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on Bank Regulation at the 2025 Iowa Bankers Association Bank Management and Policy Conference.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on the economic outlook before the University of Kentucky Gatton School of Business and Economics 2025 Economic Outlook Conference.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote remarks before the Pace University Economics Society in New York.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (January)/ Redbook (February/08)/WASDE Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/07)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (January)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (December)

·       Canada Building Permits (December)

·       El Salvador PPI (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippine midterm election season  for parliamentary and local elections officially begins. 

·       Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) Board of Directors holds its first board meeting in the US.  They will visit the company’s Arizona facility – its first cutting edge facility to build overseas.

·       Japan celebrates National Foundation Day, a national holiday celebrating the founding of the nation in 660BC. Government offices, schools, banks and many companies close for the day

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (February)/ NAB Business Confidence (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Members of the European Parliament and representatives from the European Commission and the Polish Council Presidency will assess the current state of EU-US trade relations, multilateralism, and the EU’s potential responses if the US imposes tariffs on European products.

·       Members of the European Parliament will meet to discuss how to address the US government’s recent decision to restrict the export of AI Chips to certain EU Member States.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a keynote speech at the London campus of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, titled “Are we underestimating changes in financial markets?”

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in the Nuremberg Talks Series' panel discussion organized by Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung in Nürnberg, Germany.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann gives a speech at Leeds Beckett Univeristy on “Economic Prospects.”

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (January)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (January)

·       France Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Turkey Retail Sales (December)/ Auto Production (January)/ Auto Sales (January)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (January)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (December)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (December)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Bruno Lemarquis, the United Nation’s Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). He will brief reporters virtually on the situation in the DRC.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (December)

Wednesday, February 12, 2025

Global

·       The United Nation’s Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the 1591 Committee (dealing with Sudan). Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultation on the Middle East (Syria).

·       OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee to present his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Washington, D.C. for meetings with President Trump through February 13.  The discussions are likely to focus on India’s trade surplice and how to improve Indian investment in the US.  They will also discuss how to continue to attract manufacturing in China to both India and the US.  A big focus will be on the growing defense cooperation between the two countries.

·       Ontario premier Doug Ford, chair of the Council of the Federation, leads a joint mission of Canadian premiers to Washington to meet key members of the Trump administration, Congress and business leaders to lobby for maintaining strong Canada-US relations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on stablecoins at the A Very Stable Conference: Stablecoin Infrastructure for Real World Applications, San Francisco, California.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will give remarks at the Atlanta Chapter of the National Association of Corporate Directors.

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (February/07)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI (January)/ Fed Chair Powell Testimony/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February/07)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Monthly Budget Statement (January)/ Fed Waller Speech

·       Canada BoC Summary of Deliberations

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam holds an Extraordinary Session of the National Assembly in Hanoi through February 17.  The meeting brings together the Standing Boards of the National Assembly with the Government’s party Committees and they will focus on national defense and security, approve four laws and five resolutions designed to revamp institutional frameworks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Home Loans Q4/ Investment Lending for Homes Q4

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (December)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (December)

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (January)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment NOV

·       India Industrial Production (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Manufacturing Production (December)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Defense Minister John Healey convenes the Ukraine Defense Contact Grupo in Ramstein, Germany.

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will join the foreign ministers from France, Germany, Poland, Italy, the United Kingdom and Spain will meet with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha in Paris, France.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a fireside chat at MNI Connect event.

·       Megan Greene, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene speaks on the impact of global developments on the UK at the Institute of Directors in London.

·       The European Central Bank releases its Economic Bulletin on the EU’s Green investment needs in the EU and their funding.

·       Italy Industrial Production (December)

·       Euro Area ECB Elderson Speech

·       Germany Bundesbank Mauderer Speech/ Current Account (December)/ Bundesbank Nagel Speech

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.  Erdogan will also attend the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council meetings (HLSCC) in Indonesia and Pakistan.  Erdogan will also travel to Malaysia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan Industrial Production (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union (AU) Assembly and the AU Executive Council will meet in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Thursday, February 13, 2025

Global

·       The United Nations Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by a consultation on the Middle East (Yemen). 

·       The International Energy Administration releases its February Oil Market Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to the Munich Security Conference in Germany and then will travel on to Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia through February 18.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (December)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (February/08)/ PPI (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/07)/ Total Household Debt Q4/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/13)/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/12)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (January)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (January)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai will travel to China to sign an agreement on a cross-border rail line for transporting coal.

·       The Indonesia Motor Show begins in Jakarta and runs through February 23.  More than 30 auto manufacturers will be in attendance.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (January)/ Business Inflation Expectations Q1

·       Japan PPI (January)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Indonesia Car Sales (January)

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (January)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Chiefs are scheduled to meet in Brussels.

· French President Emmanuel Macron hosts a conference on Syria in Paris to support a fair and inclusive political.

·       Pope Francis hosts a workshop, Tax Justice and Solidarity, with speakers including former South African president Thabo Mbeki and Brazil’s current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded interview at the Frankfurt Digital Finance Conference 2025.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (January)/ GDP (December)/ Business Investment Q4/ Goods Trade Balance (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Construction Orders (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (January)

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (January)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (January)/ Bundesbank Nagel Speech

·       Romania Industrial Production (December)/ Current Account (December)

·       Turkey Current Account (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/07)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (December)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB Economic Bulletin/ Industrial Production (December)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Current Account (December)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (December)/ Mining Production (December)

Friday, February 14, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (December)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (December)/ Wholesale Sales (December)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

·       USA Export & Import Prices (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Capacity Utilization (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)/ Business Inventories (December)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (December)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (February/14)

·       Colombia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (December)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (December)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (December)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export & Import Prices (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (January)/ Food Inflation (January)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (February/08)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/08)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

·       Indonesia Property Price Index Q4

·       Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

·       India WPI Food Index (January)/ WPI Fuel (January)/ WPI Inflation (January)/ WPI Manufacturing (January)/ Bank Loan Growth (January/31)/ Deposit Growth (January/31)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/07)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q4/ GDP (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Munich Security Forum begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Balance of Trade (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Household Consumption (December)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (January)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Hungary Construction Output (December)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (January)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Spain Inflation Rate (January)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Employment Change Q4

·       Greece Inflation Rate (January)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Serbia Building Permits (December)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (January)/ M1 Money Supply (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Saturday, February 15, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Abkhazia holds presidential elections following the resignation of Aslan Bzhania following wide-spread national protests.

·       Taiwan holds local by-elections.

·       Togo holds senatorial legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Serbia celebrates Statehood Day, a two-day national holiday marking the day in 1804 when the first Serbian Uprising took place.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union (AU) Summit begins in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 16, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea has a national holiday celebrating the birth of former leader Kim Jon-il who died in 2011.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, his conservative challenger Friedrich Merz plus Alice Weidel of the AfD and Robert Habeck from the Greens take part in a four-way TV debate on German channel RTL ahead of next week’s federal election

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union Heads of State and Government Summit finishes.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Tariffs On Canada, Japan, and China Go Live, Trump Meets With Netanyahu To Discuss Gaza and Iran And Then With Japan’s Ishida On China and US-Japan Trade, And EU Leaders Gather To Discuss Defense and Security Policy

President Trump promised he would bring tariffs on the US’s largest trading partners, Mexico, Canada, and China if they did not do more to curb illegal immigration and the flow of Fentanyl in the US, and he made good on his threat on Saturday. 

Many market participants we spoke to were hopeful a deal would be worked out in time and seemed surprised Trump moved on slapping 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10 percent tariffs on China.  Canada immediately responded with retaliatory measures, putting 25 percent tariffs on US exports to Canada, including beer, food products, and appliances.  Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is readying counter-tariffs, and China said it would sue the US at the World Trade Organization (WTO).

The big question now is: How long will this last?  The answer is anyone’s guess because it is not clear exactly how Trump will be satisfied by any of the three countries on illegal immigration and drug trafficking—what is the metric of success?  Hopefully, that will become clearer in the coming days, and a deal can be hammered out.

Looking ahead, Trump will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week at the White House to discuss the situation in Gaza, possible next steps, and overall policy toward Iran.  It is Trump’s first formal meeting with a foreign leader since returning to office. 

Later in the week, Trump will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the White House.  Japan has been both upset and nervous with Washington of late as former President Biden blocked Nippon Steel’s bid to buy US Steel on spurious national security grounds (Nippon Steel is suing the US government over the ruling, and the court case begins this week).  And Japan has been nervous about where they stand with President Trump vis a vi China as Trump officials have been talking about a “Grand Bargain” with China.   Ishiba is likely to raise the Nippon Steel issue with Trump in the hope that Trump could perhaps broker a deal that appeases the US steel union and allows Nippon to move forward with the acquisition.  He will also talk to Trump about Japan potentially helping to financially support the building of a $44 billion gas pipeline in Alaska and become a major gas purchaser.

In Europe this week, we are watching as EU leaders gather for a meeting to discuss EU defense and security needs.  UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is invited to attend, as is NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.  While no major policy announcements are expected to come from the meeting, it does show the EU is moving more aggressively to develop stronger defense and security capabilities inside the EU as well as bolster NATO in the face of growing Russian aggression.

Turning to the global economic reporting radar screen this week, in the US we are watching the jobs report out on Friday as well as ISM indices out on Monday and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday. 

Turning to Europe, the Bank of England meets on rates where the market is expecting another rate cut.  Other major reports out this week is the Eurozone CPI German industrial production, trade balance, and factory orders, and France’s industrial production and trade balance.

Finally, moving over to Asia, China – coming off the Lunar New Year holiday – releases the Caixin Manufacturing PMIs on Monday and Services PMIs on Wednesday.  Japan releases the December labor cash earnings figures and the Bank of Japan summary of opinions from their January meeting.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, February 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is traveling to Panama, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic.  The primary focus of this trip is to discuss illegal immigration, transnational criminal organizations, and drug trafficking.  But he is also going to focus on China’s growing role in the Hemisphere – particularly in Panama as President Trump has threatened to take back the Canal due to Panama allowing the Chinese company Hutcheson Whampoa to operate the Canal as well as ports at either end of the Canal.

·       Today is Groundhog Day – Is Spring around the corner or will we have six more weeks of winter?

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 3, 2025

Global

·       At the UN Security Conference, there will be a press briefing by Ambassador Fu Cong, Permanent Representative of the People's Republic of China and President of the Security Council for February on the agenda for the month.

·       OPEC+ holds a joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting in Vienna.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nippon Steel’s lawsuit against the US Federal Government for blocking their acquisition of U.S. Steel begins.

Economic Reports/Events

·        Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (December)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (January)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices (January)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Loan Officer Survey/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates/ Fed Musalem Speech

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (January)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI Final (January)/ Building Permits (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (January)/ Private House Approvals (December)/ Commodity Prices (January)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (January)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Business Confidence (January)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (January)

·       Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Current Account Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal EU leaders retreat in Brussels. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have be invited to attend.  According to a memo released in advance of the meeting, the leaders will be discussing defense policy.

·       The French Parliament will receive President Emmanuel Macron’s budget proposal.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Competitiveness and Trade Ministers in Warsaw, Poland through February 4.

·       The new Special Committee on the European Democracy Shield will hold its constitutive meeting to elect a chair and vice-chair and launch the committee’s activities. It will deal with the so-called “Democracy Shield” initiative, included in the Commission’s 2024-2029 political guidelines, and other initiatives designed to counter malicious interference in EU democratic processes 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ NEVI Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (December)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (December)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ New Car Sales (January)

·       Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (January)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI Flash (January)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Qatar Balance of Trade (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (January)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (January)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Tuesday, February 4, 2025

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu travels to Washington, D.C. to meet with President Trump, making him the first foreign leader to meet with Trump since being sworn into office.  The two leaders are expected to discuss the future of the hostage-release cease-fire deal in Gaza and how to coordinate policy on dealing with Iran going forward.

·       The US Senate Finance Committee will vote on the nomination of Robert Kennedy, Jr. to be Secretary of Health and Human Services.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Federal Reverse Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy to the Economics Department Special Lecture, Lafayette College, Easton, Pennsylvania.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (January)/ BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ PPI (December)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       USA Redbook (February/01)/ JOLTs Job Openings (December)/ Factory Orders (December)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (February)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Fed Daly Speech/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/31)/ Fed Jefferson Speech/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (January)

·       Colombia Exports (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China is expected to reveal data on domestic travel and spending over the Lunar New Year holidays as early as Tuesday, offering a barometer of consumer demand at a critical moment for the country's sluggish economy.

·       Today is National Day in Sri Lanka, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        New Zealand Building Permits (December)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (February/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·        European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery will participate on a panel on Women in Finance during St. Brigid Day celebrations at the Embassy of Ireland in London, UK.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Romania PPI (December)

·       France Budget Balance (December)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (January)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (December)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline to begin negotiations on “Phase 2” of the Israeli-Hamas ceasefire agreement to release hostages.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (January)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Liberation Day in Angola, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (January)/ M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)

Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Brief Economic Update and Bank Regulation” at the 2025 Kansas Bankers Association Harold A. Stones Government Relations Conference.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Do Non-Inflationary Economic Expansions Promote Shared Prosperity?” at Swarthmore College, Swarthmore, Pennsylvania.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks on economic perspectives before hybrid 31st Annual Automotive Insights Symposium.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in fireside chat before the Conference Board"2025: A Year in Preview" Conference

·       Brazil Industrial Production (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (November)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/31)/ ADP Employment Change (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)/ ISM Services Business Activity/ Employment/ New Orders. Prices/ PMI (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/31/ Total Vehicle Sales (January)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (January)

·       Colombia PPI (January)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra travels to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The purpose of the meeting is to discuss growing online fraud run by Chinese criminal syndicates aimed at Thai citizens as well as to seek China’s help in curbing negative rumors about Thailand’s safety for Chinese tourists. 

·       India's national capital territory goes to polls with a tense three-way contest expected between Delhi's ruling Aam Aadmi Party, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party and the country's main opposition Indian National Congress. More than 15.5 million people are registered to vote in the election for 70 constituencies of the Delhi assembly.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chinese financial markets reopen after the Lunar New Year holiday. 

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       New Zealand Unemployment Rate Q4/ Labour Costs Index Q4/ Participation Rate Q4

·       Australia S&P Global Australia Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (January)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (December)/ Overtime Pay (December)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Singapore Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (January)

·       China Caixin Composite PMI (January)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Full Year GDP Growth 2025

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (January)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January/24)

·       Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Services PMI (January)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Liberation Day in San Marino.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat and a Q&A at an event organized by Peterson Institute for International Economics "The euro area in 2025" in Washington DC,

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Business Confidence (January)/ Corporate Profits (November)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Real Wage Growth (November)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       France Industrial Production (December)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ Bundesbank Balz Speech

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ PPI (December)/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (January)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (January)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (January)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Unity Day in Burundi, celebrating ethnic unity between Tutsis and Hutus.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (January)

Thursday, February 6, 2025

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the future of payments at the Navigating the Future of Payments with Christopher Waller, Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President May Daly speaks on economic trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping the region and beyond before the Rotary Club of Oakland

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Great Britain BoE Interest Rate Decision/ Monetary Policy Report/ MPC Meeting Minutes/ MPC Vote Cut/ MPC Vote Hike/ MPC Vote Unchanged

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (January)/ Initial Jobless Claims (February/01)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q4/ Unit Labour Costs Q4/ Continuing Jobless Claims (January/25)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (February/01)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/31)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/06)/ Fed Waller Speech/ Fed Daly Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/05)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (January)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Board Member Naoki Tamura gives a speech to local leaders in Nagano, Japan.

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       South Korea Current Account (December)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (February/01)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/01)/ BOJ Tamura Speech/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (January)/ Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Deutsche Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel speaks at the inaugural BIS Chapultepec Conference in Mexico.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Germany Factory Orders (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (January)/ Bundesbank Nagel Speech/ Bundesbank Balz Speech/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Romania Retail Sales (December)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (January)

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (January)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (January)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (January)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (January)/ BoE Bailey Speech

·       Euro Area Retail Sales (December)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/31)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Israel Business Confidence (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Jordan PPI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa delivers the State of the Nation Address before the South African parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (January)

Friday, February 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Turks and Caicos Islands hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Brief Economic Update and Bank Regulation” at the 2025 Wisconsin Bankers Association Bank Executives Conference.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech entitled “Entrepreneurship and Aggregate Productivity” at the 2025 Miami Economic Forum, Miami, Florida.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (January)

·       Brazil Car Production (January)/ New Car Registrations (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (January)/ Employment Change (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Average Hourly Wages (January)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (January)/ Average Hourly Earnings (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Average Weekly Hours (January)/ Government Payrolls (January)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (January)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (January)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (January)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations (February)/ Michigan Current Conditions (February)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (February)/ Wholesale Inventories (December)/ Fed Kugler Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (December)/ Used Car Prices (January)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (January)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (December)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (January)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba travels to Washington to meet with President Trump.  The two leaders are expected to discuss mutual security issues in the Indo-Pacific including dealing with China.  Ishiba is also expected to make the case to Trump on behalf of Nippon Steel in their blocked bid for U.S. Steel.  Ishiba is also considering offering support for a $44 billion gas pipeline in Alaska as well as an offer to buy large quantities of the gas.  Ishiba will also be seeking Trump's cooperation in resolving a long-running dispute with North Korea over its abduction of Japanese citizens in the '70s and '80s.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Japan Household Spending (December)/ Coincident Index (December)/ Leading Economic Index (December)

·       Philippines Industrial Production (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (December)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/31)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at a conference "VI Encuentro Económico-Asegurador" organised by Mutualidad de Abogados de España in Madrid, Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (January)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (January)/ BoE Pill Speech

·       Turkey Inflation Report/ Treasury Cash Balance (January)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Current Account (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q4

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (December)/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Spain Industrial Production (December)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech

·       Greece Balance of Trade (December)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (December)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Full Year GDP Growth 2024

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Qatar Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ SACCI Business Confidence (January)/ SACCI Business Confidence (December)

Saturday, February 8, 2025

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

·        

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea celebrates Military Foundation Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Switzerland will hold a referendum on an environmental initiative called “For a responsible economy within our planet’s limits.”   It would aim to limit the environmental impact of Swiss consumption within ten years by aligning it with planetary boundaries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 9, 2025

Global

·         Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador holds presidential elections and parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Kosovo holds parliamentary elections.

·       Lichtenstein holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Will the Trump Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and Canada Begin This Week?  Rubio Goes to Latin America; the Lunar New Year Celebration Begins in Asia, and A Big Week for Central Banks

January 26 - February 2, 2025

It will be a very busy week ahead, both politically and economically.  President Trump has threatened to put 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10 percent tariffs on China unless there is progress on illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking (he placed 25 percent tariffs and a travel ban on Colombia Sunday for refusing to take back deported Colombians).   The question now is, will there be some progress, or are the tariffs a fait acompli?

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio begins a series of meetings in Latin America, traveling to Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic.  While Rubio is expected to focus on migration issues, he will also likely discuss the situation in Venezuela and trade and security issues.  It is Rubio’s first trip as Secretary of State, indicating that Latin America will be a significant focus of the new Trump Administration.

In Asia, we note Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri is traveling to Beijing for two days of meetings.  This is the second high-level set of meetings between India and China in the last two months, all to improve tense relations between the two countries.   The meetings take place as most of the major markets in Asia get ready to celebrate the Lunar New Year and China celebrates its annual eight-day Spring Festival – which serves as a major consumer spending event in China and will be indicative of how strong the Chinese economy is as the country continues to struggle with its massive real estate crisis.

In Europe, EU Foreign Ministers meet this week to discuss how to move forward on renewing sanctions on Russia.  Hungary is trying to block the renewal of sanctions, causing significant tensions.  The ministers are also expected to discuss EU-US relations and how best to work with the new Trump Administration.

In the United States, three of President Trump’s arguably most controversial nominees will get their Senate confirmation hearings this week.  FBI Director-designate Kash Patel, Director of National Intelligence nominee Tulsi Gabbard, and Health and Human Service Secretary nominee Robert Kennedy will each appear before the respective US Senate committees.

Turning the Middle East, the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah expires today.  What happens next is unclear.  The expiration comes as the fragile ceasefire with Hamas continues to hold and as Israeli and US hostages are slowly being released.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it’s a big week for central banks as the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of Brazil all meet to decide interest rates.

Beyond the central bank action and breaking down the week by region, the US will see Q4 GDP numbers, December PCE inflation print on Thursday, and Q4 employment cost index figures on Friday.   These come after the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report and durable goods orders come out on Tuesday.

In Europe, January CPI flash numbers are out Friday for Germany and France, and the Eurozone CPI’s following Monday. 

In Asia, markets are closed in most major markets for the Lunar New Year, and in Australia, markets are closed for the Australia Day holiday.  But China – celebrating an eight-day Spring Festival holiday – will release January PMIs, and Japan will release its CPI print, PMIs, and industrial production figures.   

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, January 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump announces 25 percent tariffs on Colombia for refusing to accept U.S. plans carrying deported Colombian nationals.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday celebrating the country’s constitution coming into force in 1950.  There will be a large military parade through New Delhi.

·       Today is Australia Day, a national holiday, commemorating the landing of The First Fleet in 1788 led by Captain Arthur Phillip, who later became the British colony’s first governor. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belarus holds presidential elections.

· In Berlin, Germany's Greens hold a party congress ahead of the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Israeli-Hezbollah ceasefire expires.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 27, 2025

Global

·       Today is International Holocaust Remembrance Day.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an emergency meeting and briefing on ICC Sudan, which will include the International Criminal Court report on Darfur.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Tapachula, Mexico, a new migrant caravan set to depart southern Mexico despite Trump immigration crackdown.

·       Venezuela's opposition leader Gonzalez Urrutia meets with Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa.

·       Canada’s legislature returns to session in Ottawa.

Economic Reports/Events

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (January)/ Bank Lending (December)/ Federal Tax Revenues (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (December)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (December)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (December)/ New Home Sales (December)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Building Permits Final (December)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (December)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Foreign Minister Vikram Misri travels to Beijing for two days of meetings with Chinese Vice Minister Sun Weidong.  It is the second high-level meeting between India and China in the last two months, all in an effort to de-escalate tensions between the two countries.

·       Australia Day is observed.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim hosts Indonesian President Prabowo in Putrajaya, Malaysia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Industrial Profits (YTD) (December)/ NBS General PMI (January)

·       Japan Coincident Index Final (November)/ Leading Economic Index Final (November)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Auschwitz-Birkenau State Museum holds an 80th anniversary commemoration of the liberation of Auschwitz with a ceremony held in a special tent built over the gate to the former Auschwitz-Birkenau camp. Guests include King Charles.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Brussels.  Foreign Ministers will discuss the War in Ukraine and extend sanctions on Russia.  They will also discuss the state of EU-US relations, the situation in the Middle East (focusing on Syria and Gaza), and the situation in Moldova and Georgia.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will exchange views on the proposed regulation on cross-border enforcement of the EU rules on unfair trading practices in the agricultural and food supply chain, as well as on the proposed regulation amending the common market organization as regards the strengthening of the position of farmers in the food supply chain.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte meets Portuguese Prime Minister Luis Montenegro in Lisbon, Portugal. He then travels to Madrid, Spain to meet with Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Luc Frieden, the Prime Minister of Luxembourg.

·       The Arctic Frontiers Annual Conference begins in Tromso, Norway.

·       Paris Fashion Week begins. Will Derek Zoolander be there this year?

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded Lámfalussy Lecture at the Lámfalussy Lectures Conference organized by the Hungarian Central Bank.  Later, she will give welcome remarkets at a commemorative event on the occasion of International Holocaust Remembrance Day.

·       Turkey Business Confidence (January)/ Capacity Utilization (January)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (January)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (January)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (December)/ Jobseekers Total (December)

·       Greece Total Credit (December)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits Saudi Arabia for bilateral talks. She then travels on to Bahrain for talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ghana President Dramani Mahama visits Angola for bilateral talks.

·       The Africa Energy Summit begins in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)

Tuesday, January 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentine rail workers will launch a nationwide six-hour strike after negotiations with rail operator Ferrocarriles Argentinos broke down.

·       Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces the 2025 Doomsday Clock time.  Last year, the clock was reset at 90 seconds to midnight, the closest to midnight it has been in its nearly 80 years of existence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (December)/ Redbook (January/25)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (November)/ House Price Index (November)/ CB Consumer Confidence (January)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing/ Shipments/ Services Revenues Index (January)/ Dallas Fed Services/ Revenues Index (January)/ Money Supply (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/24)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In China, the Spring Festival, a national holiday, begins and runs until February 4th.  The holiday will be watched by markets to gauge the strength of Chinese consumers’ willingness to spend despite the ongoing economic challenges.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Malaysia PPI (December)

·       Singapore Imports/ Export Prices (December)/ PPI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        The European Commission unveils a roadmap for restoring EU competitiveness.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the Polish presidency’s (Poland) priorities for the next six months.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with the Romanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Emil Horatiu Hurezeanu at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde attends and offers an exchange of views with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the Governing Council event in Brussels.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a virtual panel discussion at the conference "T2, T1, T0: Go! The future of financial markets and their infrastructures: What’s ahead?" organized by Banque de France in Paris.

·       Bank of England Executive Director Rebecca Jackson gives a speech at UK Finance entitled “Prime Brokerage” in London.

·       France Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (December)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s ban on operations by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian refugees goes into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (December)/ Private Bank Lending (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (November)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (December)

Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick will have his confirmation hearing in the US Senate.

·       Canada’s Commissioner Marie-Josée Hogue to release final report of the Public Inquiry into Foreign Interference.

· Former US Senator Robert Menendez is sentenced following his conviction for bribery and corruption charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee’s Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference.

·       The Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision/ Monetary Policy Report/ Press Conference

·       The Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (December)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/24)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/24)/ Goods Trade Balance (December)/ Wholesale Inventories (December)/ EIA Crude Oil/ Gasoline/ Heating Oil/ Refinery Crude Runs Stocks Change (January/24)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the Lunar New Year, celebrated across many countries in South-East Asia. Financial markets are closed in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam.  

·       Azerbaijan holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan publishes its Policy Meeting Minutes/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Australia Inflation Rate Q4/ Monthly CPI Indicator (December)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q4/ CPI Q4/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q4

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Thailand New Car Sales (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The embezzlement trial of the former Russian Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov begins in Moscow.

·       British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves gives a speech on economic growth in London.

·       German Economy Minister Robert Habeck presents the national 2025 economic report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Governing Council monetary policy meeting begins in Frankfurt.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence FEB

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Flash Q4

·       Euro Area Loans to Households (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Italy Business Confidence (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (January)

·       Russia PPI (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (December)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (November)/ M1 Money Supply (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (January)

Thursday, January 30, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Robert Kennedy, President Trump’s nominee to be Secretary of Health and Human Services, has his confirmation hearing before the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pension Committee.

·       Director of National Intelligence nominee Tulsi Gabbard will have her confirmation hearing in the Senate.

·       FBI Director nominee Kash Patel will have his Senate confirmation hearing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (January)/ Net Payrolls (December)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (January)/ Average Weekly Earnings (November)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Fiscal Balance (December)

·       USA GDP Growth Rate/ Price Index Q4/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/25)/ GDP Sales Q4/ PCE Prices Q4/ Real Consumer Spending Q4/ Pending Home Sales (December)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/24)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/29)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asian Development Bank Institute holds a two-day online conference entitled “From Crisis to Resilience, Shaping the Future of Banking in Asia and the Pacific.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ ANZ Business Confidence (January)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/25)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/25)/ BoJ Himino Speech

·       Australia RBA Bulletin/ Import Prices Q4/ Export Prices Q4/ RBA Jones Speech/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (January)

·       Philippines Full Year GDP Growth 2025/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting in Brussels of EU Justice and Home Affairs Ministers through January 31.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Governing Council meets on interest rates.  A press conference follows the announcement.

·       Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey appears before the Treasury committee, answering questions on the latest Financial Stability Report.

·       Great Britain Car Production (December)/ BoE Consumer Credit (December)/ Mortgage Approvals (December)/ Mortgage Lending (December)/ M4 Money Supply (December)/ Net Lending to Individuals (December)

·       Netherlands Business Confidence (January)

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Household Consumption (December)

·       Germany Import Prices (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (December)/ KOF Leading Indicators (January)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (January)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/24)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (January)/ Business Confidence (January)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Industrial Sales (November)

·       Poland Full Year GDP Growth 2025

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ Economic Sentiment (January)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)/ Industrial Sentiment (January)/ Selling Price Expectations (January)/ Services Sentiment (January)/ Deposit Facility Rate

·       Greece PPI (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ M3 Money Supply (December)/ Private Bank Lending (December)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger officially leave regional group Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS).  All three nations are leaving following coups in their respective countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (December)/ Private Sector Credit (December)/ PPI (December)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate/ Budget Balance (December)

Friday, January 31, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the situation in Sudan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio begins a tour of Latin America.  He will travel to Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic.  There is no official agenda, but illegal migration will likely be the top issue discussed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (December)/ Nominal Budget Balance (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Chile Copper Production (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Canada GDP (November)/ Budget Balance (November)

·       USA Personal Income & Spending (December)/ Employment Cost Index Q4/ Fed Bowman Speech/ PCE Price Index (December)/ Chicago PMI (January)/ Employment Cost - Benefits & Wages Q4/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/31)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (December)

·       Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (December)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Mitsubishi Motors is expected to announce whether or not to join a planned merger with Nissan and Honda.

·       Today is Nauru Independence Day, a national holiday celebrating when the Republic declared its independence from Australia in 1968.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (December)/ Jobs/Applications ratio (December)/ Tokyo CPI (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Housing Starts (December)/ Construction Orders (December)

·       Australia PPI Q4/ Housing Credit (December)/ Private Sector Credit (December)

·       Philippines PPI (December)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (December)/ Business Confidence Q4

·       Thailand Industrial Production (December)/ Current Account (December)/ Private Consumption & Investment (December)/ Business Confidence (January)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q4

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (January)/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       India Government Budget Value (December)/ Bank Loan Growth (January/17)/ Deposit Growth (January/17)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/24)/ Infrastructure Output (December)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Unless extended by the EU, sanctions on Russia are due to expire today.

·       Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits Serbia for the inter-governmental summit.

·       Today, on the 5th anniversary of the UK leaving the EU, the Brexit safety and security declarations for EU imports come into force.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Retail Sales (December)/ Unemployment Change Rate/ Persons Rate (January)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (January)/ Bavaria CPI (January)/ Brandenburg CPI (January)/ Hesse CPI (January)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (January)/ Saxony CPI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (December)/ Tourism Revenues Q4/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (January)

·       Hungary PPI (December)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (December)

·       France Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (December)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Spain Retail Sales (December)/ Current Account (November)/ New Car Sales (January)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)

·       Greece Retail Sales (November)

·       Italy PPI (December)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Ukraine Current Account (December)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for France to remove all military forces from Chad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Balance of Trade (December)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (January)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Saturday, February 1, 2025

Global

·       China assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of February.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Democratic National Committee elects a new chair.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman gives the annual budget speech to parliament for the financial year, which begins in April.  The budget is expected to significantly increase government spending on infrastructure projects and the agricultural sector

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Togo holds senatorial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump may impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico (to be confirmed).

·       President Trump may impose 10 percent tariffs on China (to be confirmed).

·       Today is Groundhog Day – Is Spring around the corner or will we have six more weeks of winter?

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Donald Trump Returns to Power, The World Economic Forum Convenes in Davos, Rubio Calls A Meeting of the Quad,  and Japan’s Prime Minister Gives His First Major Policy Speech

January 19 - 26, 2025

Monday will be a historic day in the United States as Donald Trump is sworn in as the 47th President of the United States for the second time.  The world seems to be holding its collective breath, waiting to see what President Trump will do right out of the box after being sworn in.  At this point in time, we know he will sign and issue more than 100 Executive Orders that will cover issues ranging from moving on his promised wide-ranging tariff regime, declaring a state of emergency on the US-Mexican border, loosening oil and gas oil permitting immediately, giving a 90-day extension to TikTok from being forced to shut down, to moving on his vow to begin rounding up illegal aliens and deporting them.  

The incoming Trump Administration is not wasting any time on the national security and geopolitical front, with incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio (who is expected to be confirmed by the Senate and sworn into office on Monday) convening a meeting Tuesday of the Quad – the foreign ministers of Japan, Australia, India, and the US – in Washington to talk about next steps for the mutual security group.  This is seen as a strongly positive signal by the incoming Trump Administration that they intend to maintain the Biden security policies in the Indo-Pacific and ramp it up. 

We also note that Trump spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday.  The call reportedly covered the future of TikTok, trade, and Fentanyl trafficking.  We also hear Trump telling aides that he wants to visit China for meetings with Xi this year.

Also happening this week is the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.  The mega-event runs for four days (January 20 – 24), and this year, a large number of foreign leaders will be speaking (and President Trump will address the group virtually).  You can see the full agenda and list of speakers HERE.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the big reports markets are watching are going to be in Asia.  The Bank of Japan meets on interest rates on Friday, while China will be setting its Loan Prime Rate, although the market consensus at this point is that it will remain unchanged.

In Europe, the Eurogroup (all EU finance ministers plus European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde) will meet to discuss global and EU economic conditions.  Also, in the EU this week, Germany and France released manufacturing reports, while the UK labor market report is out on Tuesday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, January 19, 2025

Global

·       Today is the Orthodox Christian Feast of the Epiphany.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President-elect Trump will hold a rally in Washington, D.C, in advance of his inauguration (tomorrow).  He will also participate in a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 20, 2025

Global

·       The World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland and runs through January 24.   More than 2,500 people are expected to attend.   You can see the full agenda HERE.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East (Gaza).  UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President-elect Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States.  Once he takes the oath, Trump is expected to sign and issue more than 100 Executive Orders – including one declaring a state of emergency on the Mexican border.

· Argentina’s President Javier Milei will be in Washington, D.C., to attend the Trump Inauguration.

·       It is Martin Luther King Day, a federal holiday.  Financial markets are closed in the US.

· Ecuador presidential candidates will debate ahead of the upcoming election on February 9.

·       In Panama City, Panama, the trial begins for Panama ex-presidents Ricardo Martinelli and Juan Carlos Varela, accused of money laundering with Brazilian group Odebrecht.

·       In Tapachula, Mexico, a migrant caravan is expected to depart southern Mexico ahead of Donald Trump taking office as US president.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (December)/ Leading Indicator (December)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Hong Kong, Chinese property developer Country Garden faces a liquidation hearing days after it reported delayed financial results for 2023 that showed a $24 billion loss.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Machinery Orders (November)/ Capacity Utilization (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Tertiary Industry Index (November)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (January)/ FDI (YTD) (December)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. The President of the Eurogroup will invite ministers to engage in a strategic political discussion on the euro area's key policy priorities and the Eurogroup's role in addressing them.  This will include discussions about innovations in wholesale payments and the digital Euro.

·       Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov chairs government meeting in Moscow on Russians living abroad. The Putin government has been working to find new ways to exert greater control of Russians abroad.

·       German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock hosts press conference with Lithuania counterpart Kestutis Budrys to discuss mutual and regional security concerns.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (December)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (December)

·       Greece Current Account (November)

·       Italy Construction Output (November)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (November)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account Q4/ PPI (December)

·       Slovakia Current Account (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Tuesday, January 21, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Countering terrorism in Africa.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Foreign ministers from the Quad Nations – Australia, India, Japan, and the US – will meet in Washington to discuss regional security issues and will be chaired by incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio.  The meeting shows an early emphasis on strengthening regional partnerships that outgoing President Joe Biden championed to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific, despite Biden and Trump’s vastly different world views.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Retail Sales (November)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI Median (December)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (December)

·       USA Redbook (January/18)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (November)/ Imports (November)/ ISE Economic Activity (November)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea's Constitutional Court holds hearings on Tuesday and Thursday in the impeachment trial of embattled President Yoon Suk Yeol. Last week, Yoon became the first sitting president in South Korean history to be arrested, but he is still fighting all charges and refusing to attend court hearings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kazakhstan PPI (December)

·       New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (December)/ Services NZ PSI (December)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (December)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (January/21)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (December)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council  (EU Finance Ministers and ECB Board members) meets in Brussels.  They will discuss the situation in Ukraine, the EU economic governance framework and the 2025 Alert Mechanism Report and the draft Council recommendation on the economic policy of the euro area. 

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Education ministers through January 22.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen addresses the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

·       Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubayev in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Union New Car Registrations (December)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (November)/ Employment Change (November)/ Claimant Count Change (December)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (December)

·       Slovenia PPI (December)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January)/ ZEW Current Conditions (January)

·       Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (December)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (December)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (November)/ Mining Production (November)

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, January 22, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on Haiti followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/17)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (January/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/17)/ CB Leading Index (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/17)

·       Canada PPI (December)/ Raw Materials Prices (December)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (January)

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q4

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (December)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (December)

·       India M3 Money Supply (January/10)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with French President Emmanual Macron in Paris for bilateral talks.   The meeting will also mark the 1963 Elysee Treaty of Friendship between the two countries.

·       Ireland’s parliament will meet to elect a new three-way coalition government.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov chairs the council dedicated to the 'protection of rights of citizens living abroad.”

·       Germany CDU Leader Friedrich Merz on Germany's gives a keynote speech in Berlin on foreign and European policy priorities.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in the Stakeholder Dialogue 'Beyond Crisis: Unlocking Europe's Potential' during World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (December)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (December)/ Employment Growth (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (November)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (November)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (December)/ Total Credit Growth (December)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (November)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (December)/ Retail Sales (November)

Thursday, January 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organizations (League of Arab States). In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Canada,  today is the deadline for the Liberal Party to announce its candidacy in the leadership vote on March 9, following current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (January)/

·       Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (January/18)/ EIA Natural Gas/ Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stocks Change (January/17)/ EIA Distillate Fuel Production & Stocks Change (January/17)/ EIA Gasoline Production/ Heating Oil Stocks/ Refinery Crude Runs Change (January/17)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/22)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (November)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India holds local elections in a number of cities.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (November)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January/18)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/18)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (December)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England External member of the Monetary Policy Committee Carolyn Wilkins gives a speech at Fitch Ratings entitled “Geopolitics and financial stability: a plan beats no plan” in London.

·       Netherlands Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (January)/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (January)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/17)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (November)

·       France Business Confidence (January)/ Business Climate Indicator (January)

·       Poland Retail Sales (December)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Great Britain CBI Business Optimism Index Q1/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (January)

·       Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (November)/ Building Permits (November)

Friday, January 24, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Washington, D.C., the Smithsonian’s National Zoo puts the giant pandas Bao Li and Qing Bao on public display at their renovated habitat on Asia Trail.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (January)/ New Housing Price Index (December)/ Manufacturing Sales (December)

·       Chile PPI (December)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (November)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Existing Home Sales (December)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Final (January)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (January)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Final (January)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (January)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/24)

·       Paraguay PPI (December)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto visits India as it celebrates Republic Day, and the two countries mark 75 years of diplomatic relations. The Indonesian leader has embarked on a whirlwind of overseas tours since taking office in October.

·       Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivers his first policy address at the start of a new parliamentary session.  Ishiba is expected to announce Japan's biggest-ever budget bill, with debate expected over possible changes to income tax rates.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Australia PMI Flash (January)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (December)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and Quarterly Outlook Report

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q4/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (December)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Index (November)

·       Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q4

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/17)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Unification Day in Romania, celebrating when, in 1859, the two Romanian principalities of “Moldavia” and “Wallachia” came together to form the “Union of Romanian Principalities.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a panel discussion "The effects of central bank digital currencies" at the 13th Institute for Law and Finance Conference on the Future of the Financial Sector "Bank Disintermediation – Causes and Consequences" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Spain PPI (December)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ CBI Distributive Trades (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)

Saturday, January 25, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Greece holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday celebrating the country’s constitution coming into force in 1950.  There will be a large military parade through New Delhi.

·       Today is Australia Day, a national holiday commemorating the landing of The First Fleet in 1788 led by Captain Arthur Phillip, who later became the British colony’s first governor. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belarus holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The Trump Cabinet Nominees Get Confirmation Hearings, Iran’s President Meets With Russian President Putin While Germany, France, and UK Meet With Iran Over Their Nuclear Program, And Earnings Season in the US Kicks Off

The geopolitical and geoeconomic radar screens will be full this coming week.  This is the last week of the Biden Administration with the U.S. Presidential Inauguration, one week from Monday.  The U.S. Congress is already moving quickly on many fronts in advance of the incoming Trump Administration, as almost all of President-elect Trump’s cabinet nominees will have their confirmation hearings held this week.  The hearings will give markets a richer sense of many of Trump’s policy proposals – how they will be carried out by the respective nominees, cost, timelines, etc.

We are anticipating fairly quick action on a number of them and the very real possibility that Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary-designate Scott Bessent will be confirmed by Inauguration Day, allowing them to be sworn into office the same day President Trump (which is the historical norm).

Outside the U.S. this week, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian travels to Moscow this week for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and to sign a new comprehensive cooperation agreement.  The agreement includes a new North-South Corridor, which allows for greater trade and energy cooperation between the two countries. 

While this is going on, diplomats from France, Germany, and the UK will meet with Iranian diplomats in Geneva, Switzerland, to again try to persuade Iran from further enriching uranium that could be used in nuclear weapons.  The three European countries were signatories to the 2015 nuclear pact (along with the US, Russia, and China), which President Trump exited in 2018.  It is unlikely Iran will agree, especially with President Trump coming back into office and the face of the multiple foreign policy and military setbacks Tehran has suffered in recent months (the massive degrading of their proxy militias Hamas and Hezbollah and the fall of Syrian strongman and Iranian ally Bashar al-Assad and his regime.

In Asia, Japan’s Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya will be conducting important meetings in South Korea, the Philippines, and the Island nation of Palau, seeking mutual security arrangements as China gets more active and aggressive in the region. 

Turning the busy global economic agenda this week, in the US markets – in their first full trading week of the New Year – are looking at the CPI release on Wednesday, the PPI print on Thursday, and the Fed’s publishing of the Beige Book in advance of the Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting on January 29.  Also out this week are the retail sales report and industrial production data.  All this comes as corporate earnings season kicks off in the US. 

Staying in the Americas, we would also note that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will be announcing a major new public-private sector plan to boost investment in Mexico.  Markets are looking for details of the plan to get a sense of the newly inaugurated Sheinbaum’s overall economic policy focus.

Looking at Europe, the European Central Bank releases its account of the last interest meeting.  The UK has CPI, PPI, and RPI reports coming on Wednesday.

Finally, looking at Asia, China has all-important trade data released on Monday and Q4 GDP figures on Friday, while Japan also releases trade data and bank lending information.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, January 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        First launch of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket from Cape Canaveral, Florida.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves concludes a two-day visit to Beijing to participate in the first UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue since 2019.  Accompanying Reeves will be a business delegation along with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.  The goal of the meetings is to increase Chinese investment in the UK and facilitate easier UK investment in China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Croatia holds its presidential runoff election. Incumbent President Zoran Milanović is due to face rival Dragan Primorac.

·       Germany’s Green Party officially launches its election campaign with Robert Habeck.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Comoros holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Monday, January 13, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (the situation in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Joe Biden gives farewell foreign policy speech at the State Department in Washington, D.C.

·       Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is expected to unveil a new public-private sector plan to help grow investment in Mexico.

·       In Peru, Prosecutors summon President Dina Boluarte to testify about her nose surgery (why did she keep it secret, and did she violate the law by not officially notifying the appropriate authorities that she was being put under for the surgery).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Car Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (December)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)/ Monthly Budget Statement (December)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (December)

·       El Salvador PPI (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya travels to Seoul, South Korea for bilateral meetings to discuss trade and security issues.  From there, he will travel to the Philippines and the Island nation of Palau.

·       Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.  The meeting comes less than two weeks ahead of Belarus’ presidential elections on January 26.

·       The Secretary General of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Hiroshi Moriyama, will travel to Beijing for meetings with senior Chinese officials. 

·       In Pakistan, Ex-prime minister Imran Khan expected to be sentenced in graft case.

·       The Asian Financial Forum begins in Hong Kong and runs through Tuesday. 

·       In Japan, today is “Coming of Age Day”, a national holiday that encourages those who have recently entered adulthood to become self-reliant members of Japanese society. 

·       In India, today is the first day of Kumbh Mela (Pitcher Festival) – the world’s biggest festival with an expected 450 million participants.  Today  Hindu holy men carrying swords and tridents will lead millions of devotees into the icy waters of the rivers Ganga, Yamuna and Saraswati during the first Shahi Snan (royal bath) in the northern city of Prayagraj. The event is held every 12 years.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (November)

·       Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (December)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (December)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Vehicle Sales (December)/ New Yuan Loans (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (December)/ Total Social Financing (December)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (November)

·       India Inflation Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Defence Ministers from Germany, France, Italy and Britain visit Poland for talks on the situation in Ukraine.

·       NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, exchanges with members of the European Parliament (MEPS) serving on the Committee on Foreign Affairs. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Construction PMI (December)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech

·       Turkey Current Account (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Auto Production (December)/ Auto Sales (December)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (November)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (December)

·       Romania Current Account (November)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (December)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account (November)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran holds talks with France, Germany, and the UK in Geneva to discuss Iran’s uranium enrichment program.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique swears in its new parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Current Account Q3

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (November)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). 

·       Today is the Orthodox Christian New Year.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Senate begins the confirmation process for Defense Secretary-nominee Pete Hegseth, Interior Secretary-nominee Doug Burgum, and Veterans Affairs Secretary-nominee Doug Collins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives opening remarks before 4th Annual  "An Economy That Works for All: Housing Affordability" event.

·       Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook before the Central Exchange.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (December)/ PPI (December)/RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (January)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/10)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya visits the Philippines.  The visit is aimed to strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries at a time when the Philippines is facing increasingly tense relations and stand-offs in the South China Sea with China.

·       South Korea’s Constitutional Court will hold its first hearing on the future of President Yoon Suk Yeol after he was impeached in early December. 

·       The National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultive Conference’s (CPPCC) Shanghai Committee hosts opening session of 3rd plenary in Shanghai.

·       Sri Lanka President Anura Kumara Dissanayake visits Beijing for bilateral meetings. It is Dissanayake’s first official visit to China and he is expected to discuss strengthening relations and Sri Lanka’s debt treatment.

·       Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin visits Vietnam for bilateral meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino gives remarks at a meeting of local leaders in Kanagawa, Japan.

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q4/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q4

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (January)/ Building Permits (November)/ Private House Approvals (November)

·       Japan Current Account (November)/ Bank Lending (December)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (December)/ BoJ Himino Speech

·       India WPI Food Index (December)/ WPI Fuel (December)/ WPI Inflation (December)/ WPI Manufacturing (December)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (December)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Finland hosts a Security summit for NATO countries bordering Baltic Sea.  This comes in the wake of several subsea cables being deliberately cut by Russia.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov holds annual press conference in Moscow.

·       French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou delivers general policy statement to Members of Parliament.  Bayrou is currently negotiating a tough budget deal with parliament.

·       Today is Novy God (Russian New Year).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the joint ECB/BoF/HKMA conference on "Europe, Asia and the Changing Global Economy" in Hong Kong.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the Financial Stability Law Forum in Zurich, Switzerland.

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (December)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (December)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (December)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech

·       France Budget Balance (November)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Italy Industrial Production (November)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ M1 Money Supply (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, January 15, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote in the morning linked to Libyan sanctions.  In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). 

·       OPEC publishes its monthly Oil Markets Report.

·       The International Energy Agency publishes its monthly Oil Markets Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Senate holds confirmation hearings for Brooke Rollins to be Secretary of Agriculture, Chris Wright to be Secretary of Energy, Pam Bondi to be Attorney General, Lee Zeldin to be Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Marco Rubio to be Secretary of State, John Ratcliffe to be Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Kristi Noem to be Homeland Security Secretary and Russell Vought to be Director of the Office of Management and Budget Director

·       NASA's Blue Ghost lunar lander launches from Cape Canaveral, Florida. The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will carry the lander.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Maryland Chamber of Commerce "Meet the State 2025: Making Maryland More Competitive" event.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari gives welcome remarks and participates in fireside chat before virtual Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 2025 Regional Economic Conditions Conference.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the Connecticut Business and Industry Association (CBIA) Economic Summit and Outlook 2025.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks before virtual Wisconsin Bankers Association Midwest Economic Forecast Forum.

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (October)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/10)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/10)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI (December)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (January)/EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (January/10)/NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Beige Book

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (November)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (November)/ Wholesale Sales (November)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (January)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladesh’s interim government is receiving a number of recommendations from reform commissions created to review the electoral system, judiciary, and policy.

·       Japanese company ispace launches second uncrewed moon mission from Merritt Island.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import & Export Prices (December)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (January)/ Machine Tool Orders (December)

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Loan Growth (December)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (January)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (November)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO military chiefs hold regular meetings in Brussels.  The agenda includes a discussion of the Euro-Atlantic and the war in Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat at the Global Macro conference of Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the 15th Spain Investors Day 2025 in Madrid, Spain.

·       Bank of England Executive Director Nathanaël Benjamin gives a speech at TheCityUK entitled “The future of stress testing.”

·       Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor gives a speech at Leeds Univeristy entitled “Inflation Dynamics and Outlook.”

·       EU Industrial Production (November)

·       Netherlands Balance of Trade (November)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (December)/ Full Year GDP Growth 2025

·       Romania Industrial Production (November)

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI Output & Input (December)/ Retail Price Index (December)

·       Hungary Construction Output (November)

·       France Inflation Rate (December)/ IEA Oil Market Report

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (December)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (December)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (November)

·       Serbia Building Permits (November)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (December)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique President-elect Daniel Chapo is sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

Thursday, January 16, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations in the morning on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will hold a press conference outlining his priorities for 2025.

·       The International Energy Agency publishes its report on nuclear power.

·       The International Labor Organization releases its report on World Employment and Social Outlook, Trends 2025.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Senate Finance Committee holds a confirmation hearing for U.S. Secretary of Treasury-nominee Scott Bessent while the Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds a confirmation hearing for Elise Stefanik to be US Ambassador to the United Nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (November)

·       Canada Housing Starts (December)/ BoC Gravelle Speech

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (January/11)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Import & Export Prices (December)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/10)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/16)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/15)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vanuatu holds snap parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (December)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Japan PPI (December)

·       Australia Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ Participation Rate (December)

·       Sri Lanka Services PMI (December)/ Manufacturing PMI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visits Moscow for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Swedish counterpart Ulf Kristersson, press conference follows.  Later, the German Social Democratic Party officially launches its electoral campaign with Scholz as its candidate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank publishes the Monetary Policy Meeting Account from the last interest rate meeting.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (December)/ GDP (November)/ Goods Trade Balance (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Construction Output (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ BoE Credit Conditions Survey/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (December)

·       Netherlands Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (December)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (November)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (December)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/10)

·       Serbia Current Account (November)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (December)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision (January)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q3

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, January 17, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council Military Staff Committee holds a meeting in New York.  The role of the Committee – which is a subsidiary of the Security Council – is to “advise and assist the Security Council on all questions relating to the Council’s military requirements for the maintenance of international peace and security.”  They are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza as well as various ongoing UN peacekeeping efforts around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (November)

·       USA Housing Starts (December)/ Capacity Utilization (December)/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/17)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (November)/ Foreign Bond Investment (November)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (November)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s largest car show kicks off in New Delphi.  India is the third largest auto market.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (December)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/11)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/11)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

·       China House Price Index (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision/ Business Confidence Q4/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q1

·       India Bank Loan Growth (January/03)/ Deposit Growth (January/03)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/10)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a virtual keynote lecture at the Crypto Asset Lab conference 2025 organized by the University of Milano-Bicocca.

·       Great Britain Retail Sales (December)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Euro Area Current Account (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI Final (December)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Spain Balance of Trade (November)

·       Germany Bundesbank Nagel Speech

·       Italy Current Account (November)

·       Belarus GDP (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (December)

Saturday, January 18, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Retreat will begin in Langkawi, Malaysia and runs through January 19.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 19, 2025

Global

·       Today is the Orthodox Christian Feast of the Epiphany.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President-elect Trump will hold a rally in Washington, D.C, in advance of his inauguration (tomorrow). 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.