The Global Week Ahead

Big Moves Toward Ukrainian Peace Talks, The EU Seeks to Head Off A Trade War with the US, Germany Holds What Could Be Historic Elections, The Israeli-Hezbollah Cease-Fire Is Set to Expire, and Markets Look to the Release FOMC Minutes

February 16 - 23, 2025

It will be a big week geopolitically - potentially historic in several ways.  First, there is rapid movement toward establishing a framework to begin peace negotiations with Russia over its war on Ukraine.  President Trump is dispatching US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Walz, and Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff to Saudi Arabia Monday to meet with Russian counterparts.  The meeting aims to begin setting up the parameters for a possible meeting between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia in the coming weeks to start negotiating a Ukrainian peace deal. 

As Rubio/Walz/Witkoff meet in Riyadh with the Russians, Trump’s Special Envoy to Russia and Ukraine, retired US Army General Keith Kellogg, will meet with EU President Ursula von der Leyen and then NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on the peace effort.   

As all this is taking place, French President Emmanual Macron will be convening an “emergency” meeting of EU leaders (leaders of Germany, Britain, Italy, Poland, Sapin, the Netherlands, and Denmark, as well as the NATO Secretary-General and the Presidents of the European Council and European Commission) to discuss what President Trump is doing and what they should be doing.  UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said this “is a once-in-a-generation moment for our national security.” All this being said, the two massive questions on the table are:  What does Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky think about what Trump is saying and doing?  And what exactly is President Trump’s vision for a peace deal, and does it include Ukraine giving up the land Russia has seized?   All in all, it appears Zelensky and Ukrainian concerns are being somewhat left to the side.  Also, coordination between the US and NATO partners lags behind Trump’s lightning-speed efforts. 

Meanwhile, in Washington, EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is flying over to meet with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to urgently discuss how to avoid a looming US-EU trade war, which will be launched by President Trump’s promised reciprocal tariffs.  Sefcovic is not scheduled at this point to meet with President Trump directly, but rumors abound that this might actually happen.  Markets need to watch this trip closely.

Also happening in Europe this week, German voters head to the polls on Sunday to elect a new government.  Christian Democrat Party Leader Fredrik Merz is on track to see his party win in the polls along with their Bavarian partners, the Christian Social Union (currently at 29.2%).  The question is: Which other parties will they form a coalition with to avoid at all costs working with the ultra-far-right AfD Party, which is now currently in second place in the polls (21.3%)?  Most Germans – indeed, most of Europe – are shocked and dismayed to see the AfD – which has repeatedly been shown to have a significant number of members who are Nazi sympathizers gain such an uptick in popularity.  And that makes this election potentially historic as the  Merz will likely have to go in with the Green Party and the left-of-center Social Democrats (SPD) led by current Chancellor Olaf Scholz. 

Turning to the Middle East, Monday marks the grim milestone of the 500th day since the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, which killed more than 2,500 civilians and resulted in the taking of 251 hostages.  While the Gaza cease-fire remains incredibly fragile, with sporadic attacks taking place, hope remains that the rest of the hostages will be released in the coming weeks.   Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah is technically set to expire.  However, most observers expect it to be extended.  Israel is asking for a ten-day extension (until February 28) before they pull back the last of their troops from Southern Lebanon.  Hezbollah is not likely to want to return to full-scale fighting, having been severely mauled by Israeli forces and having a large portion of its military leadership killed. 

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, markets are keenly awaiting the release of the FMOC’s minutes on Wednesday to get a clearer sense of just how worried the Federal Reserve is about a resurgence of inflation and if there is any chance for further rate cuts this year. 

In Asia, Japan releases Q4 GDP estimates, January CPI figures, and trade and machinery order data.  Australia’s Reserve Bank meets on interest rates on Tuesday.

In Europe, the UK releases labor figures on Tuesday, inflation data on Wednesday, and consumer confidence on Friday.  Germany releases the ZEW Survey on Tuesday, and we will see the Eurozone consumer confidence report on Thursday. 

Below is what else we are watching closely in the coming week:

Sunday, February 16, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

·       Canadian Trade Minister Mary Ng leads a delegation of 220 representatives from 140 Canadian organizations on a trade mission to Australia as part of the Australia-Canada Economic Leadership Forum in Sydney.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea has a national holiday celebrating the birth of former leader Kim Jon-il who died in 2011.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, his conservative challenger Friedrich Merz plus Alice Weidel of the AfD, and Robert Habeck from the Greens take part in a four-way TV debate on German channel RTL ahead of next week’s federal election

·       Today is the first anniversary of Alexei Navalny’s murder in Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The 8th Indian Ocean Conference takes place in Oman.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union Heads of State and Government Summit finishes.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 17, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security focused on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Michael Walz, and President Trump’s Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff will travel to Saudi Arabia for meetings with Russian envoys to lay the groundwork for negotiations seeking to end the war in Ukraine.

·       EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will travel to Washington for meetings with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and White House National Economic Director Kevin Hassett in an effort to ward off possible trade tariffs on the EU.

·       Today is President’s Day in the US, a national holiday.  Financial markets and banks are closed.  The US House of Representatives is out of session this week in honor of President’s Day.  The US Senate is in session this week.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give brief remarks on the economy and bank regulation at the American Bankers Association (ABA) Conference for Community Bankers, Phoenix, Arizona.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the UNSW Macroeconomic Workshop, Sydney, Australia.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook before the Global Interdependence Center Central Banking Series Conference with the University of the Bahamas.

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Housing Starts (January)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (December)

·       Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ ISE Economic Activity (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping will chair a Tech Symposium with leading Chinese tech CEOs in Beijing in an effort to spur further growth in the sector.

·       Malaysia will host the China Conference: Southeast Asia 2025 in Kuala Lumpur. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will speak.

·       Sri Lanka's three-month-old government will present its first national budget as the country faces pressure from the International Monetary Fund to reach a primary fiscal surplus of 2.3 % of GDP and a tax-to-GDP ratio of 14% by next year. The IMF's conditions are part of a $3 billion bailout to help the country recover from its 2022 economic meltdown.

·       Vietnam’s Parliament is scheduled to vote on a series of major civil service reforms.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (January)/ Visitor Arrivals (December)

·       Japan GDP Growth Annualized Prel Q4/ GDP Price Index Q4/ Capacity Utilization (December)/ Industrial Production Final (December)/ Tertiary Industry Index (December)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Full Year GDP Growth 2024

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q4

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (December)

·       China Vehicle Sales (January)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (December)/ Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Services PMI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European heads of state gather in Paris for an emergency meeting to discuss and potentially agree on a common proposal to resolve the Ukraine War. The meeting is being convened in response to President Trump’s fast-moving effort to meet with Russian President Putin to discuss Trump’s proposal to end the war.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with General Keith Kellogg (ret.), the US Special Presidential Envoy for Ukraine and Russia in Brussels.  Kellogg will also meet with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in Brussels to discuss President Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine.

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels to discuss the state of convergence in Bulgaria, the macroeconomic outlook for the Euro area, and the work program for the group up to July 2025.  European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will participate.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hosts Serbia's Foreign Minister Marko Duric for meetings in Moscow.

·       Romania’s far-right opposition parties are expected to submit a no-confidence vote for Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu’s government.

·       There will be an informal meeting of the EU General Affairs Council in Brussels through February 18.

·       The US Army Europe and Africa will hold its biennial exercise in the Arctic called Arctic Forge 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (January)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (December)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (December)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (December)/ European Commission Winter Forecasts/ ECOFIN Meeting

·       Germany Bundesbank Nagel Speech

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (December)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (January)

·       Turkey Auto Production (January)/ Auto Sales (January)/ Budget Balance (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 500th day anniversary of Hamas’ attack on Israel and the taking of hostages.

· Today is February 17th, Revolution Day, a national holiday celebrating when the people of Libya threw off the rule of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi’s 40 years of rule.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q4/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January)

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Tuesday, February 18, 2025

Global

·       The World Trade Organization begins a two-day council meeting in Geneva.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Practicing multilateralism, reforming and improving global governance.  China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi will chair the meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Lula da Silva hosts Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in Sao Paulo.

·       Bermuda holds elections for its House of Assembly.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Michael Barr will give a speech on Artificial Intelligence and Financial Stability at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks and participates in a moderated discussion before the 2025 Conference for Community Bankers hosted by the American Bankers Association.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI Median (January)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (January)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (February)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (February)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (December)/ Foreign Bond Investment (December)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (December)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, begins a three-day visit to Japan to review the country’s nuclear power plants.

·       South Korea's constitutional court continues hearings this week on whether President Yoon Suk Yeol should be removed from office over his short-lived martial law order in December. That ruling is expected early next month. On Thursday, a Seoul district court will begin Yoon's criminal trial on insurrection charges.

·       Singapore’s Prime Minister and Finance Minister, Lawrence Wong, delivers the government's 2025 budget in a critical election year. As a key step in preparing for the city-state's general election due by November, observers are expecting new policies and generous support measures aimed at tackling the most pressing voter concerns, such as rising living costs.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (January)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (February/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Th EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss EU competitiveness and improving the business environment, the situation in Ukraine, the EU budget for 2026, and the economic governance framework.

·       France’s upper House of Parliament is expected to debate and vote on the highly controversial 2025 Social Security budget.

·       Today is the inauguration of President Zoran Milanovic in Croatia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has a “fireside chat” in Brussels with Jeromin Zettelmeyer, director of Belgian think-tank Bruegel, on “preserving and enhancing open financial markets.”

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone will participate in a livestreamed MNI Connect video conference “The ECB's Balance Sheet Policies and Implications in the Current Economic Context”.

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (January)/ Claimant Count Change (January/Labour Productivity Final Q3

·       Switzerland Industrial Production Q4

·       France Inflation Rate Final (January)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (February)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (February)/ ZEW Current Conditions (February)

·       Belarus GDP (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement expires unless extended. The initial deal, brokered by the US and France, began in November and halted nearly 14 months of conflict by requiring both sides to withdraw from southern Lebanon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (December)/ Total Credit (December)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Gambia Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Unemployment Rate Q4/ Unemployed Persons Q4/ Annual Budget Speech

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (December)

Wednesday, February 19, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions. This will be followed by consultations. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund will host the third FII Priority Summit in Miami Beach, United States, through Feb. 21, and U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to attend and speak.

·       The Caricom Meeting of the Conference of Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community meet in Barbados.

·       The US Senate’s Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Department of Labor nominee Lori Chavez-DeRemer.

·       The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) begins in Washington, D.C. and runs through Saturday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Household Balance Sheets” at the Martin H. Crego Lecture in Economics, Vassar College, Poughkeepsie, New York.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Open Market Committee Minutes are released.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (February/14)/ Housing Starts (January)/ Redbook (February/15)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 22.5 to 30 yrs/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/14

·       Brazil Business Confidence (February)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam’s Parliament vote on proposed rail line to China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board member Jajimi Takata gives a speech to local business leaders in Miyagi, Japan.

·       New Zealand PPI Input & Output Q4/ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Machinery Orders (December)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (January)/ RBA Chart Pack/ Wage Price Index Q4

·       China House Price Index (January)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (January)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (February)

·       India M3 Money Supply (February/07)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission will present its “vision” for agriculture.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will give an annual speech at Russia's State Duma on Russia's foreign policy priorities. 

·       The French Parliament will examine a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Francois Bayrou tabled by the center-left Socialist Party for his recent controversial remarks on immigration. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Payments Victoria Cleland speaks on a panel at the Currency Research Central Bank Payments summit in Paris on “what can be the next game changer.”

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI Output & Input (January)/ Retail Price Index (January)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ Current Account (December)

·       Italy Current Account (December)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (December)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (January)/ Current Account (December)

·       Russia PPI (January)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The leaders of five Arab countries hold a summit on Donald Trump's Gaza plan in Cairo.  The leaders of Egypt, Qatar, the UAE, and Jordan will attend.  Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas is rumored to be attending, too.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman Inflation Rate (January)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana presents the annual national budget to parliament.

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

Thursday, February 20, 2025

Global

·       G20 Foreign Ministers will gather in Johannesburg, South Africa, to meet. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to skip the meeting.  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Russia's Sergei Lavrov will be there.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg will visit Kyiv, Ukraine, for meetings regarding the Russia-Ukraine war and President Trump’s efforts to start peace talks.

·       The US Senate’s Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Linda McMahon to be Secretary of Education.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives a speech on supervision and regulation at the Georgetown University Law Center in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives a speech entitled “Navigating Inflation Waves While Riding on the Phillips Curve” at the 2025 Whittington Lecture, McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University, Washington, D.C.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks and participates in a moderated conversation on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Economic Club of New York.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Chicagoland Chamber Mid-Market Chicago event.

·       Mexico Retail Sales (December)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (January)/ PPI (January)/ Raw Materials Prices (January)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (February/15)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (February)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (February)/ CB Leading Index (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/14)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February/14)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/20)/Fed Balance Sheet (February/19)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Colombia Cement Production (December)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Halifax International Security Forum starts a two-day conference in Taipei. It is the first time the Forum has been held in Taiwan, and the conference's theme is to "highlight Taiwan's thriving democracy for global leaders," with a series of on- and off-the-record discussions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (February)/ PPI (January)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (February/15)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/15)

·       Australia Unemployment Rate (January)/ Participation Rate (January)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (February)

·       Indonesia Current Account Q4/ M2 Money Supply (January)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (January)/ Current Account Q4

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ukraine Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga is due to address the IISS-Asia strategic think tank in Singapore (the Shangri La Conference).

· Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban gives the annual State of the Nation speech.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Sasha Mills, executive director of financial market infrastructure at the Bank of England, speaks at the UK T+1 Accelerated Settlement Market event hosted by KPMG in London.

·       Germany PPI (January)/ Bundesbank Nagel Speech

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (January)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/14)/ Central Government Debt (January)

·       Greece Current Account (December)

·       Italy Construction Output (December)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (January)/ Employment Growth (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (December)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (February)

·       Great Britain CBI Industrial Trends Orders (February)/ Gfk Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Slovakia Current Account (December)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (January)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (January)/ Total Credit Growth (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The French Army will officially hand over control of their military base in Abidjan, Ivory Coast – one of France’s last outposts in Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (December)

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, February 21, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on Central Bank Communication at the Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California.

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final Q4/ Economic Activity (December)

·       Canada Retail Sales (December)/ Retail Sales Final (December)/ BoC Gov Macklem Speech

·       USA S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)/ Existing Home Sales (January)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (February)/Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (February/21)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (January)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (January)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (February)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Australia S&P Global Australia Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (February)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Jibun Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (January)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/14)

·       China FDI (YTD) (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a keynote speech at the FIW-Research Conference on International Economics in Vienna, Austria.

·       Great Britain Retail Sales (January)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (January)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (January)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

·       France Business Confidence (February)/ Business Climate Indicator (February)/ HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

·       Italy Inflation Rate Final (January)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (January)

·       Serbia PPI (January)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q4

Saturday, February 22, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in St. Lucia, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan's Defense Minister Gen Nakatani visits the Philippines for talks with his Filipino counterpart, Gilbert Teodoro, including about an intelligence-sharing agreement. The move follows Tokyo's supply of air defense radar equipment to Manila in 2023, and forms part of an effort to strengthen defense collaboration with like-minded countries around China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the Day of Fraternity and Cohesion Day in Algeria, a national holiday celebrating the revolution in 2019, throwing off the autocratic reign of power of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 23, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Guyana Republic Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Japanese Emperor Naruhito’s 65th birthday.

·       Today is National Day in Brunei, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany holds parliamentary elections that will determine the new leadership of the country.  Christian Social Union leader Fredrik Mertz is seen as the likely next Chancellor.  But it is unclear what sort of coalition he will after form to avoid the surging ultra-rightwing AfD Party.

·       Russia celebrates Defender of the Fatherland Day, otherwise known in Russia as Men’s Day, aimed at honoring men who serve in the armed forces.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Hezbollah's former Secretary General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah will be buried in Lebanon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Global Week Ahead

The AI Action Summit Convenes in Paris, Trump Meets with Indian Prime Minister Modi as Secretary of State Rubio Meets with EU Foreign Ministers, and Powell Goes to Capitol Hill 

February 9 - 16, 2025

Europe serves as the host of two important geopolitical events this week.  First, the growing opportunity and risk of Artificial Intelligence (AI) dominate the attention of world leaders and prominent business CEOs this week as the AI Action Summit kicks off in Paris.  Co-hosted by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron, the event will include attendees from 80 countries, including U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.  There are expected to be more than 100 side events, and in total, more than 10,000 people will attend.   The event is expected to focus on both the risks and opportunities AI offers.

Second, European foreign ministers will gather and meet with newly sworn-in U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday for the first time.  Rubio will also meet with Ukrainian Foreign minster Andrii Sybiha to discuss the situation in Ukraine and likely President Trump’s plans to seek a peace treaty with Russia.  Rubio will then travel on to the Munich Security Conference in Germany following by visits to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to discuss the situation in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.

While all this is going on, in the U.S., President Trump will meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington to discuss trade issues and how to further expand the mutual defense and security relationship between India and the U.S. including the opportunity for India to increase purchases of leading U.S. military technology.  The relationship between Trump and Modi was strong during his first term and has remained so ever since.  What market are likely to be focused on most of all is any discussion between the two leaders over attracting manufacturing in China to India and the U.S.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this coming week, markets will be focused on Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s semiannual economic reports to Congress.  Powell starts Tuesday when he testifies before the Senate Banking Committee and then on Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee.

Powell’s testimony comes as US CPI, retail sales, and industrial production reports are released this week. 

Turning to Asia, China’s CPI and PPI are out this week, and Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey and PPI are released this week.   In Europe, the UK’s 4th quarter GDP is out as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde meets with the European Parliament to discuss the economy and ECB policy.

Below is what else we are watching closely in the coming week:

Sunday, February 9, 2025

Global

·         Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador holds presidential elections and parliamentary elections.  137 seats in the National Assembly are up for a vote. And incumbent President Daniel Noboa is likely to win re-election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese asset freeze sanctions on 18 Chinese companies for helping Russia evade sanctions will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will transition from the Soviet-era BRELL grid to the Continental Europe Synchronous Area.

·       Kosovo holds parliamentary elections for 120 seats.

·       Lichtenstein holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Prince Karim Al-Hussaini, the Aga Khan IV and spiritual leader of Ismaili Muslims will be buried in Aswan, Egypt.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 10, 2025

Global

·       The AI Action Summit convenes in Paris begins in Paris.  It will be co-chaired by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron.  Multiple leaders from around the world are expected to attend.

·       United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres travels to Paris to attend the AI Action Summit.  He is expected to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and other leaders on the sidelines of the Summit to discuss other issues including Ukraine, Syria, and Gaza.

·       The United Nations he Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Candidates for the Organization of American States' new secretary general will present their candidacies.

·       The Delphi Forum will begin in Washington, D.C.  The Greek-focused forum will include speakers from Congress and business.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Auto Production (January)

·       Brazil Car Production (January)/ New Car Registrations (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Bank of Canada Market Participants Survey

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s new targeted 10 percent tariffs on the US are due to take effect. 

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi travels to Paris to co-chair the AI Action Summit through Tuesday.  He goes on to Washington to meet with President Trump on Wednesday and Thursday.

·       Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown will visit China through February 14.  New Zealand has objected to the meetings over security concerns.

·       US and South Korean military forces will take part in a live-fire training exercise in South Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Current Account (December)/ Bank Lending (January)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (January)

·       Australia Building Permits (December)/ Private House Approvals (December)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (December)/ Construction Output Q4

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q4

·       China New Yuan Loans (January)/ M2 Money Supply (January)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (January)/ Total Social Financing (January)/ Vehicle Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers for Development in Warsaw, Poland.

·       German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will meet European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius in Berlin, Germany.

·       Church of England General Synod meeting begins. On the agenda are safeguarding proposals following the independent review by Keith Makin into the church’s handling of allegations of serious abuse by the late Archbishop John Smyth and other church leaders.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will brief member of the European Parliament on
the state of European and global economic affairs as well as giving an update on the European Central Bank’s activities.  The meeting takes place in Strasbourg, France.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Market Infrastructure  Sasha Mills will deliver remarks at the Chair/CEO/INEDs Roundtable for UK Financial Market Infrastructure firms.

·       Netherlands Manufacturing Production (December)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (December)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Participation Rate (December)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (December)

·       Greece Industrial Production (December)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (January)

·       Germany Bundesbank Balz Speech

·       Hungary Budget Balance (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran’ celebrates Revolution Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (January)

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (December)/ SACCI Business Confidence (January)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (January)

Tuesday, February 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee to present his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

·       Jordan's King Abdullah II will meet with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C.   They will discuss the situation in Gaza as well as Syria. Abdullah is also expected to discuss the pause of US Agency for International Development (AID) aid to Jordan which has been paused.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on Bank Regulation at the 2025 Iowa Bankers Association Bank Management and Policy Conference.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on the economic outlook before the University of Kentucky Gatton School of Business and Economics 2025 Economic Outlook Conference.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote remarks before the Pace University Economics Society in New York.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (January)/ Redbook (February/08)/WASDE Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/07)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (January)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (December)

·       Canada Building Permits (December)

·       El Salvador PPI (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippine midterm election season  for parliamentary and local elections officially begins. 

·       Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) Board of Directors holds its first board meeting in the US.  They will visit the company’s Arizona facility – its first cutting edge facility to build overseas.

·       Japan celebrates National Foundation Day, a national holiday celebrating the founding of the nation in 660BC. Government offices, schools, banks and many companies close for the day

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (February)/ NAB Business Confidence (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Members of the European Parliament and representatives from the European Commission and the Polish Council Presidency will assess the current state of EU-US trade relations, multilateralism, and the EU’s potential responses if the US imposes tariffs on European products.

·       Members of the European Parliament will meet to discuss how to address the US government’s recent decision to restrict the export of AI Chips to certain EU Member States.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a keynote speech at the London campus of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, titled “Are we underestimating changes in financial markets?”

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in the Nuremberg Talks Series' panel discussion organized by Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung in Nürnberg, Germany.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann gives a speech at Leeds Beckett Univeristy on “Economic Prospects.”

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (January)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (January)

·       France Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Turkey Retail Sales (December)/ Auto Production (January)/ Auto Sales (January)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (January)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (December)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (December)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Bruno Lemarquis, the United Nation’s Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). He will brief reporters virtually on the situation in the DRC.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (December)

Wednesday, February 12, 2025

Global

·       The United Nation’s Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the 1591 Committee (dealing with Sudan). Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultation on the Middle East (Syria).

·       OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee to present his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Washington, D.C. for meetings with President Trump through February 13.  The discussions are likely to focus on India’s trade surplice and how to improve Indian investment in the US.  They will also discuss how to continue to attract manufacturing in China to both India and the US.  A big focus will be on the growing defense cooperation between the two countries.

·       Ontario premier Doug Ford, chair of the Council of the Federation, leads a joint mission of Canadian premiers to Washington to meet key members of the Trump administration, Congress and business leaders to lobby for maintaining strong Canada-US relations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on stablecoins at the A Very Stable Conference: Stablecoin Infrastructure for Real World Applications, San Francisco, California.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will give remarks at the Atlanta Chapter of the National Association of Corporate Directors.

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (February/07)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI (January)/ Fed Chair Powell Testimony/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February/07)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Monthly Budget Statement (January)/ Fed Waller Speech

·       Canada BoC Summary of Deliberations

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam holds an Extraordinary Session of the National Assembly in Hanoi through February 17.  The meeting brings together the Standing Boards of the National Assembly with the Government’s party Committees and they will focus on national defense and security, approve four laws and five resolutions designed to revamp institutional frameworks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Home Loans Q4/ Investment Lending for Homes Q4

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (December)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (December)

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (January)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment NOV

·       India Industrial Production (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Manufacturing Production (December)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Defense Minister John Healey convenes the Ukraine Defense Contact Grupo in Ramstein, Germany.

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will join the foreign ministers from France, Germany, Poland, Italy, the United Kingdom and Spain will meet with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha in Paris, France.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a fireside chat at MNI Connect event.

·       Megan Greene, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene speaks on the impact of global developments on the UK at the Institute of Directors in London.

·       The European Central Bank releases its Economic Bulletin on the EU’s Green investment needs in the EU and their funding.

·       Italy Industrial Production (December)

·       Euro Area ECB Elderson Speech

·       Germany Bundesbank Mauderer Speech/ Current Account (December)/ Bundesbank Nagel Speech

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.  Erdogan will also attend the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council meetings (HLSCC) in Indonesia and Pakistan.  Erdogan will also travel to Malaysia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan Industrial Production (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union (AU) Assembly and the AU Executive Council will meet in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Thursday, February 13, 2025

Global

·       The United Nations Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by a consultation on the Middle East (Yemen). 

·       The International Energy Administration releases its February Oil Market Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to the Munich Security Conference in Germany and then will travel on to Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia through February 18.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (December)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (February/08)/ PPI (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/07)/ Total Household Debt Q4/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/13)/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/12)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (January)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (January)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai will travel to China to sign an agreement on a cross-border rail line for transporting coal.

·       The Indonesia Motor Show begins in Jakarta and runs through February 23.  More than 30 auto manufacturers will be in attendance.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (January)/ Business Inflation Expectations Q1

·       Japan PPI (January)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Indonesia Car Sales (January)

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (January)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Chiefs are scheduled to meet in Brussels.

· French President Emmanuel Macron hosts a conference on Syria in Paris to support a fair and inclusive political.

·       Pope Francis hosts a workshop, Tax Justice and Solidarity, with speakers including former South African president Thabo Mbeki and Brazil’s current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded interview at the Frankfurt Digital Finance Conference 2025.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (January)/ GDP (December)/ Business Investment Q4/ Goods Trade Balance (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Construction Orders (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (January)

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (January)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (January)/ Bundesbank Nagel Speech

·       Romania Industrial Production (December)/ Current Account (December)

·       Turkey Current Account (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/07)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (December)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB Economic Bulletin/ Industrial Production (December)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Current Account (December)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (December)/ Mining Production (December)

Friday, February 14, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (December)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (December)/ Wholesale Sales (December)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

·       USA Export & Import Prices (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Capacity Utilization (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)/ Business Inventories (December)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (December)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (February/14)

·       Colombia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (December)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (December)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (December)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export & Import Prices (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (January)/ Food Inflation (January)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (February/08)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/08)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

·       Indonesia Property Price Index Q4

·       Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

·       India WPI Food Index (January)/ WPI Fuel (January)/ WPI Inflation (January)/ WPI Manufacturing (January)/ Bank Loan Growth (January/31)/ Deposit Growth (January/31)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/07)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q4/ GDP (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Munich Security Forum begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Balance of Trade (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Household Consumption (December)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (January)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Hungary Construction Output (December)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (January)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Spain Inflation Rate (January)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Employment Change Q4

·       Greece Inflation Rate (January)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Serbia Building Permits (December)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (January)/ M1 Money Supply (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Saturday, February 15, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Abkhazia holds presidential elections following the resignation of Aslan Bzhania following wide-spread national protests.

·       Taiwan holds local by-elections.

·       Togo holds senatorial legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Serbia celebrates Statehood Day, a two-day national holiday marking the day in 1804 when the first Serbian Uprising took place.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union (AU) Summit begins in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 16, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea has a national holiday celebrating the birth of former leader Kim Jon-il who died in 2011.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, his conservative challenger Friedrich Merz plus Alice Weidel of the AfD and Robert Habeck from the Greens take part in a four-way TV debate on German channel RTL ahead of next week’s federal election

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union Heads of State and Government Summit finishes.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Tariffs On Canada, Japan, and China Go Live, Trump Meets With Netanyahu To Discuss Gaza and Iran And Then With Japan’s Ishida On China and US-Japan Trade, And EU Leaders Gather To Discuss Defense and Security Policy

President Trump promised he would bring tariffs on the US’s largest trading partners, Mexico, Canada, and China if they did not do more to curb illegal immigration and the flow of Fentanyl in the US, and he made good on his threat on Saturday. 

Many market participants we spoke to were hopeful a deal would be worked out in time and seemed surprised Trump moved on slapping 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10 percent tariffs on China.  Canada immediately responded with retaliatory measures, putting 25 percent tariffs on US exports to Canada, including beer, food products, and appliances.  Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is readying counter-tariffs, and China said it would sue the US at the World Trade Organization (WTO).

The big question now is: How long will this last?  The answer is anyone’s guess because it is not clear exactly how Trump will be satisfied by any of the three countries on illegal immigration and drug trafficking—what is the metric of success?  Hopefully, that will become clearer in the coming days, and a deal can be hammered out.

Looking ahead, Trump will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week at the White House to discuss the situation in Gaza, possible next steps, and overall policy toward Iran.  It is Trump’s first formal meeting with a foreign leader since returning to office. 

Later in the week, Trump will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the White House.  Japan has been both upset and nervous with Washington of late as former President Biden blocked Nippon Steel’s bid to buy US Steel on spurious national security grounds (Nippon Steel is suing the US government over the ruling, and the court case begins this week).  And Japan has been nervous about where they stand with President Trump vis a vi China as Trump officials have been talking about a “Grand Bargain” with China.   Ishiba is likely to raise the Nippon Steel issue with Trump in the hope that Trump could perhaps broker a deal that appeases the US steel union and allows Nippon to move forward with the acquisition.  He will also talk to Trump about Japan potentially helping to financially support the building of a $44 billion gas pipeline in Alaska and become a major gas purchaser.

In Europe this week, we are watching as EU leaders gather for a meeting to discuss EU defense and security needs.  UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is invited to attend, as is NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.  While no major policy announcements are expected to come from the meeting, it does show the EU is moving more aggressively to develop stronger defense and security capabilities inside the EU as well as bolster NATO in the face of growing Russian aggression.

Turning to the global economic reporting radar screen this week, in the US we are watching the jobs report out on Friday as well as ISM indices out on Monday and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday. 

Turning to Europe, the Bank of England meets on rates where the market is expecting another rate cut.  Other major reports out this week is the Eurozone CPI German industrial production, trade balance, and factory orders, and France’s industrial production and trade balance.

Finally, moving over to Asia, China – coming off the Lunar New Year holiday – releases the Caixin Manufacturing PMIs on Monday and Services PMIs on Wednesday.  Japan releases the December labor cash earnings figures and the Bank of Japan summary of opinions from their January meeting.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, February 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is traveling to Panama, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic.  The primary focus of this trip is to discuss illegal immigration, transnational criminal organizations, and drug trafficking.  But he is also going to focus on China’s growing role in the Hemisphere – particularly in Panama as President Trump has threatened to take back the Canal due to Panama allowing the Chinese company Hutcheson Whampoa to operate the Canal as well as ports at either end of the Canal.

·       Today is Groundhog Day – Is Spring around the corner or will we have six more weeks of winter?

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 3, 2025

Global

·       At the UN Security Conference, there will be a press briefing by Ambassador Fu Cong, Permanent Representative of the People's Republic of China and President of the Security Council for February on the agenda for the month.

·       OPEC+ holds a joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting in Vienna.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nippon Steel’s lawsuit against the US Federal Government for blocking their acquisition of U.S. Steel begins.

Economic Reports/Events

·        Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (December)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (January)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices (January)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Loan Officer Survey/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates/ Fed Musalem Speech

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (January)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI Final (January)/ Building Permits (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (January)/ Private House Approvals (December)/ Commodity Prices (January)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (January)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Business Confidence (January)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (January)

·       Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Current Account Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal EU leaders retreat in Brussels. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have be invited to attend.  According to a memo released in advance of the meeting, the leaders will be discussing defense policy.

·       The French Parliament will receive President Emmanuel Macron’s budget proposal.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Competitiveness and Trade Ministers in Warsaw, Poland through February 4.

·       The new Special Committee on the European Democracy Shield will hold its constitutive meeting to elect a chair and vice-chair and launch the committee’s activities. It will deal with the so-called “Democracy Shield” initiative, included in the Commission’s 2024-2029 political guidelines, and other initiatives designed to counter malicious interference in EU democratic processes 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ NEVI Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (December)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (December)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ New Car Sales (January)

·       Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (January)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI Flash (January)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Qatar Balance of Trade (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (January)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (January)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Tuesday, February 4, 2025

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu travels to Washington, D.C. to meet with President Trump, making him the first foreign leader to meet with Trump since being sworn into office.  The two leaders are expected to discuss the future of the hostage-release cease-fire deal in Gaza and how to coordinate policy on dealing with Iran going forward.

·       The US Senate Finance Committee will vote on the nomination of Robert Kennedy, Jr. to be Secretary of Health and Human Services.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Federal Reverse Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy to the Economics Department Special Lecture, Lafayette College, Easton, Pennsylvania.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (January)/ BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ PPI (December)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       USA Redbook (February/01)/ JOLTs Job Openings (December)/ Factory Orders (December)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (February)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Fed Daly Speech/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/31)/ Fed Jefferson Speech/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (January)

·       Colombia Exports (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China is expected to reveal data on domestic travel and spending over the Lunar New Year holidays as early as Tuesday, offering a barometer of consumer demand at a critical moment for the country's sluggish economy.

·       Today is National Day in Sri Lanka, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        New Zealand Building Permits (December)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (February/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·        European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery will participate on a panel on Women in Finance during St. Brigid Day celebrations at the Embassy of Ireland in London, UK.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Romania PPI (December)

·       France Budget Balance (December)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (January)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (December)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline to begin negotiations on “Phase 2” of the Israeli-Hamas ceasefire agreement to release hostages.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (January)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Liberation Day in Angola, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (January)/ M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)

Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Brief Economic Update and Bank Regulation” at the 2025 Kansas Bankers Association Harold A. Stones Government Relations Conference.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Do Non-Inflationary Economic Expansions Promote Shared Prosperity?” at Swarthmore College, Swarthmore, Pennsylvania.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks on economic perspectives before hybrid 31st Annual Automotive Insights Symposium.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in fireside chat before the Conference Board"2025: A Year in Preview" Conference

·       Brazil Industrial Production (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (November)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/31)/ ADP Employment Change (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)/ ISM Services Business Activity/ Employment/ New Orders. Prices/ PMI (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/31/ Total Vehicle Sales (January)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (January)

·       Colombia PPI (January)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra travels to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The purpose of the meeting is to discuss growing online fraud run by Chinese criminal syndicates aimed at Thai citizens as well as to seek China’s help in curbing negative rumors about Thailand’s safety for Chinese tourists. 

·       India's national capital territory goes to polls with a tense three-way contest expected between Delhi's ruling Aam Aadmi Party, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party and the country's main opposition Indian National Congress. More than 15.5 million people are registered to vote in the election for 70 constituencies of the Delhi assembly.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chinese financial markets reopen after the Lunar New Year holiday. 

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       New Zealand Unemployment Rate Q4/ Labour Costs Index Q4/ Participation Rate Q4

·       Australia S&P Global Australia Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (January)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (December)/ Overtime Pay (December)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Singapore Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (January)

·       China Caixin Composite PMI (January)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Full Year GDP Growth 2025

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (January)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January/24)

·       Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Services PMI (January)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Liberation Day in San Marino.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat and a Q&A at an event organized by Peterson Institute for International Economics "The euro area in 2025" in Washington DC,

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Business Confidence (January)/ Corporate Profits (November)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Real Wage Growth (November)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       France Industrial Production (December)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ Bundesbank Balz Speech

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ PPI (December)/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (January)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (January)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (January)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Unity Day in Burundi, celebrating ethnic unity between Tutsis and Hutus.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (January)

Thursday, February 6, 2025

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the future of payments at the Navigating the Future of Payments with Christopher Waller, Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President May Daly speaks on economic trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping the region and beyond before the Rotary Club of Oakland

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Great Britain BoE Interest Rate Decision/ Monetary Policy Report/ MPC Meeting Minutes/ MPC Vote Cut/ MPC Vote Hike/ MPC Vote Unchanged

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (January)/ Initial Jobless Claims (February/01)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q4/ Unit Labour Costs Q4/ Continuing Jobless Claims (January/25)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (February/01)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/31)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/06)/ Fed Waller Speech/ Fed Daly Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/05)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (January)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Board Member Naoki Tamura gives a speech to local leaders in Nagano, Japan.

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       South Korea Current Account (December)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (February/01)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/01)/ BOJ Tamura Speech/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (January)/ Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Deutsche Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel speaks at the inaugural BIS Chapultepec Conference in Mexico.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Germany Factory Orders (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (January)/ Bundesbank Nagel Speech/ Bundesbank Balz Speech/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Romania Retail Sales (December)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (January)

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (January)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (January)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (January)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (January)/ BoE Bailey Speech

·       Euro Area Retail Sales (December)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/31)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Israel Business Confidence (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Jordan PPI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa delivers the State of the Nation Address before the South African parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (January)

Friday, February 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Turks and Caicos Islands hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Brief Economic Update and Bank Regulation” at the 2025 Wisconsin Bankers Association Bank Executives Conference.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech entitled “Entrepreneurship and Aggregate Productivity” at the 2025 Miami Economic Forum, Miami, Florida.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (January)

·       Brazil Car Production (January)/ New Car Registrations (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (January)/ Employment Change (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Average Hourly Wages (January)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (January)/ Average Hourly Earnings (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Average Weekly Hours (January)/ Government Payrolls (January)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (January)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (January)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (January)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations (February)/ Michigan Current Conditions (February)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (February)/ Wholesale Inventories (December)/ Fed Kugler Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (December)/ Used Car Prices (January)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (January)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (December)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (January)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba travels to Washington to meet with President Trump.  The two leaders are expected to discuss mutual security issues in the Indo-Pacific including dealing with China.  Ishiba is also expected to make the case to Trump on behalf of Nippon Steel in their blocked bid for U.S. Steel.  Ishiba is also considering offering support for a $44 billion gas pipeline in Alaska as well as an offer to buy large quantities of the gas.  Ishiba will also be seeking Trump's cooperation in resolving a long-running dispute with North Korea over its abduction of Japanese citizens in the '70s and '80s.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Japan Household Spending (December)/ Coincident Index (December)/ Leading Economic Index (December)

·       Philippines Industrial Production (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (December)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/31)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at a conference "VI Encuentro Económico-Asegurador" organised by Mutualidad de Abogados de España in Madrid, Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (January)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (January)/ BoE Pill Speech

·       Turkey Inflation Report/ Treasury Cash Balance (January)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Current Account (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q4

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (December)/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Spain Industrial Production (December)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech

·       Greece Balance of Trade (December)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (December)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Full Year GDP Growth 2024

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Qatar Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ SACCI Business Confidence (January)/ SACCI Business Confidence (December)

Saturday, February 8, 2025

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

·        

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea celebrates Military Foundation Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Switzerland will hold a referendum on an environmental initiative called “For a responsible economy within our planet’s limits.”   It would aim to limit the environmental impact of Swiss consumption within ten years by aligning it with planetary boundaries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 9, 2025

Global

·         Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador holds presidential elections and parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Kosovo holds parliamentary elections.

·       Lichtenstein holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Will the Trump Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and Canada Begin This Week?  Rubio Goes to Latin America; the Lunar New Year Celebration Begins in Asia, and A Big Week for Central Banks

January 26 - February 2, 2025

It will be a very busy week ahead, both politically and economically.  President Trump has threatened to put 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10 percent tariffs on China unless there is progress on illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking (he placed 25 percent tariffs and a travel ban on Colombia Sunday for refusing to take back deported Colombians).   The question now is, will there be some progress, or are the tariffs a fait acompli?

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio begins a series of meetings in Latin America, traveling to Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic.  While Rubio is expected to focus on migration issues, he will also likely discuss the situation in Venezuela and trade and security issues.  It is Rubio’s first trip as Secretary of State, indicating that Latin America will be a significant focus of the new Trump Administration.

In Asia, we note Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri is traveling to Beijing for two days of meetings.  This is the second high-level set of meetings between India and China in the last two months, all to improve tense relations between the two countries.   The meetings take place as most of the major markets in Asia get ready to celebrate the Lunar New Year and China celebrates its annual eight-day Spring Festival – which serves as a major consumer spending event in China and will be indicative of how strong the Chinese economy is as the country continues to struggle with its massive real estate crisis.

In Europe, EU Foreign Ministers meet this week to discuss how to move forward on renewing sanctions on Russia.  Hungary is trying to block the renewal of sanctions, causing significant tensions.  The ministers are also expected to discuss EU-US relations and how best to work with the new Trump Administration.

In the United States, three of President Trump’s arguably most controversial nominees will get their Senate confirmation hearings this week.  FBI Director-designate Kash Patel, Director of National Intelligence nominee Tulsi Gabbard, and Health and Human Service Secretary nominee Robert Kennedy will each appear before the respective US Senate committees.

Turning the Middle East, the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah expires today.  What happens next is unclear.  The expiration comes as the fragile ceasefire with Hamas continues to hold and as Israeli and US hostages are slowly being released.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it’s a big week for central banks as the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of Brazil all meet to decide interest rates.

Beyond the central bank action and breaking down the week by region, the US will see Q4 GDP numbers, December PCE inflation print on Thursday, and Q4 employment cost index figures on Friday.   These come after the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report and durable goods orders come out on Tuesday.

In Europe, January CPI flash numbers are out Friday for Germany and France, and the Eurozone CPI’s following Monday. 

In Asia, markets are closed in most major markets for the Lunar New Year, and in Australia, markets are closed for the Australia Day holiday.  But China – celebrating an eight-day Spring Festival holiday – will release January PMIs, and Japan will release its CPI print, PMIs, and industrial production figures.   

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, January 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump announces 25 percent tariffs on Colombia for refusing to accept U.S. plans carrying deported Colombian nationals.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday celebrating the country’s constitution coming into force in 1950.  There will be a large military parade through New Delhi.

·       Today is Australia Day, a national holiday, commemorating the landing of The First Fleet in 1788 led by Captain Arthur Phillip, who later became the British colony’s first governor. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belarus holds presidential elections.

· In Berlin, Germany's Greens hold a party congress ahead of the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Israeli-Hezbollah ceasefire expires.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 27, 2025

Global

·       Today is International Holocaust Remembrance Day.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an emergency meeting and briefing on ICC Sudan, which will include the International Criminal Court report on Darfur.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Tapachula, Mexico, a new migrant caravan set to depart southern Mexico despite Trump immigration crackdown.

·       Venezuela's opposition leader Gonzalez Urrutia meets with Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa.

·       Canada’s legislature returns to session in Ottawa.

Economic Reports/Events

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (January)/ Bank Lending (December)/ Federal Tax Revenues (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (December)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (December)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (December)/ New Home Sales (December)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Building Permits Final (December)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (December)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Foreign Minister Vikram Misri travels to Beijing for two days of meetings with Chinese Vice Minister Sun Weidong.  It is the second high-level meeting between India and China in the last two months, all in an effort to de-escalate tensions between the two countries.

·       Australia Day is observed.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim hosts Indonesian President Prabowo in Putrajaya, Malaysia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Industrial Profits (YTD) (December)/ NBS General PMI (January)

·       Japan Coincident Index Final (November)/ Leading Economic Index Final (November)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Auschwitz-Birkenau State Museum holds an 80th anniversary commemoration of the liberation of Auschwitz with a ceremony held in a special tent built over the gate to the former Auschwitz-Birkenau camp. Guests include King Charles.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Brussels.  Foreign Ministers will discuss the War in Ukraine and extend sanctions on Russia.  They will also discuss the state of EU-US relations, the situation in the Middle East (focusing on Syria and Gaza), and the situation in Moldova and Georgia.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will exchange views on the proposed regulation on cross-border enforcement of the EU rules on unfair trading practices in the agricultural and food supply chain, as well as on the proposed regulation amending the common market organization as regards the strengthening of the position of farmers in the food supply chain.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte meets Portuguese Prime Minister Luis Montenegro in Lisbon, Portugal. He then travels to Madrid, Spain to meet with Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Luc Frieden, the Prime Minister of Luxembourg.

·       The Arctic Frontiers Annual Conference begins in Tromso, Norway.

·       Paris Fashion Week begins. Will Derek Zoolander be there this year?

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded Lámfalussy Lecture at the Lámfalussy Lectures Conference organized by the Hungarian Central Bank.  Later, she will give welcome remarkets at a commemorative event on the occasion of International Holocaust Remembrance Day.

·       Turkey Business Confidence (January)/ Capacity Utilization (January)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (January)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (January)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (December)/ Jobseekers Total (December)

·       Greece Total Credit (December)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits Saudi Arabia for bilateral talks. She then travels on to Bahrain for talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ghana President Dramani Mahama visits Angola for bilateral talks.

·       The Africa Energy Summit begins in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)

Tuesday, January 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentine rail workers will launch a nationwide six-hour strike after negotiations with rail operator Ferrocarriles Argentinos broke down.

·       Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces the 2025 Doomsday Clock time.  Last year, the clock was reset at 90 seconds to midnight, the closest to midnight it has been in its nearly 80 years of existence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (December)/ Redbook (January/25)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (November)/ House Price Index (November)/ CB Consumer Confidence (January)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing/ Shipments/ Services Revenues Index (January)/ Dallas Fed Services/ Revenues Index (January)/ Money Supply (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/24)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In China, the Spring Festival, a national holiday, begins and runs until February 4th.  The holiday will be watched by markets to gauge the strength of Chinese consumers’ willingness to spend despite the ongoing economic challenges.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Malaysia PPI (December)

·       Singapore Imports/ Export Prices (December)/ PPI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        The European Commission unveils a roadmap for restoring EU competitiveness.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the Polish presidency’s (Poland) priorities for the next six months.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with the Romanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Emil Horatiu Hurezeanu at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde attends and offers an exchange of views with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the Governing Council event in Brussels.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a virtual panel discussion at the conference "T2, T1, T0: Go! The future of financial markets and their infrastructures: What’s ahead?" organized by Banque de France in Paris.

·       Bank of England Executive Director Rebecca Jackson gives a speech at UK Finance entitled “Prime Brokerage” in London.

·       France Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (December)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s ban on operations by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian refugees goes into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (December)/ Private Bank Lending (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (November)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (December)

Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick will have his confirmation hearing in the US Senate.

·       Canada’s Commissioner Marie-Josée Hogue to release final report of the Public Inquiry into Foreign Interference.

· Former US Senator Robert Menendez is sentenced following his conviction for bribery and corruption charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee’s Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference.

·       The Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision/ Monetary Policy Report/ Press Conference

·       The Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (December)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/24)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/24)/ Goods Trade Balance (December)/ Wholesale Inventories (December)/ EIA Crude Oil/ Gasoline/ Heating Oil/ Refinery Crude Runs Stocks Change (January/24)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the Lunar New Year, celebrated across many countries in South-East Asia. Financial markets are closed in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam.  

·       Azerbaijan holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan publishes its Policy Meeting Minutes/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Australia Inflation Rate Q4/ Monthly CPI Indicator (December)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q4/ CPI Q4/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q4

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Thailand New Car Sales (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The embezzlement trial of the former Russian Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov begins in Moscow.

·       British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves gives a speech on economic growth in London.

·       German Economy Minister Robert Habeck presents the national 2025 economic report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Governing Council monetary policy meeting begins in Frankfurt.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence FEB

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Flash Q4

·       Euro Area Loans to Households (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Italy Business Confidence (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (January)

·       Russia PPI (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (December)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (November)/ M1 Money Supply (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (January)

Thursday, January 30, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Robert Kennedy, President Trump’s nominee to be Secretary of Health and Human Services, has his confirmation hearing before the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pension Committee.

·       Director of National Intelligence nominee Tulsi Gabbard will have her confirmation hearing in the Senate.

·       FBI Director nominee Kash Patel will have his Senate confirmation hearing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (January)/ Net Payrolls (December)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (January)/ Average Weekly Earnings (November)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Fiscal Balance (December)

·       USA GDP Growth Rate/ Price Index Q4/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/25)/ GDP Sales Q4/ PCE Prices Q4/ Real Consumer Spending Q4/ Pending Home Sales (December)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/24)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/29)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asian Development Bank Institute holds a two-day online conference entitled “From Crisis to Resilience, Shaping the Future of Banking in Asia and the Pacific.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ ANZ Business Confidence (January)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/25)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/25)/ BoJ Himino Speech

·       Australia RBA Bulletin/ Import Prices Q4/ Export Prices Q4/ RBA Jones Speech/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (January)

·       Philippines Full Year GDP Growth 2025/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting in Brussels of EU Justice and Home Affairs Ministers through January 31.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Governing Council meets on interest rates.  A press conference follows the announcement.

·       Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey appears before the Treasury committee, answering questions on the latest Financial Stability Report.

·       Great Britain Car Production (December)/ BoE Consumer Credit (December)/ Mortgage Approvals (December)/ Mortgage Lending (December)/ M4 Money Supply (December)/ Net Lending to Individuals (December)

·       Netherlands Business Confidence (January)

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Household Consumption (December)

·       Germany Import Prices (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (December)/ KOF Leading Indicators (January)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (January)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/24)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (January)/ Business Confidence (January)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Industrial Sales (November)

·       Poland Full Year GDP Growth 2025

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ Economic Sentiment (January)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)/ Industrial Sentiment (January)/ Selling Price Expectations (January)/ Services Sentiment (January)/ Deposit Facility Rate

·       Greece PPI (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ M3 Money Supply (December)/ Private Bank Lending (December)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger officially leave regional group Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS).  All three nations are leaving following coups in their respective countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (December)/ Private Sector Credit (December)/ PPI (December)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate/ Budget Balance (December)

Friday, January 31, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the situation in Sudan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio begins a tour of Latin America.  He will travel to Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic.  There is no official agenda, but illegal migration will likely be the top issue discussed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (December)/ Nominal Budget Balance (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Chile Copper Production (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Canada GDP (November)/ Budget Balance (November)

·       USA Personal Income & Spending (December)/ Employment Cost Index Q4/ Fed Bowman Speech/ PCE Price Index (December)/ Chicago PMI (January)/ Employment Cost - Benefits & Wages Q4/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/31)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (December)

·       Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (December)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Mitsubishi Motors is expected to announce whether or not to join a planned merger with Nissan and Honda.

·       Today is Nauru Independence Day, a national holiday celebrating when the Republic declared its independence from Australia in 1968.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (December)/ Jobs/Applications ratio (December)/ Tokyo CPI (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Housing Starts (December)/ Construction Orders (December)

·       Australia PPI Q4/ Housing Credit (December)/ Private Sector Credit (December)

·       Philippines PPI (December)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (December)/ Business Confidence Q4

·       Thailand Industrial Production (December)/ Current Account (December)/ Private Consumption & Investment (December)/ Business Confidence (January)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q4

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (January)/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       India Government Budget Value (December)/ Bank Loan Growth (January/17)/ Deposit Growth (January/17)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/24)/ Infrastructure Output (December)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Unless extended by the EU, sanctions on Russia are due to expire today.

·       Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits Serbia for the inter-governmental summit.

·       Today, on the 5th anniversary of the UK leaving the EU, the Brexit safety and security declarations for EU imports come into force.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Retail Sales (December)/ Unemployment Change Rate/ Persons Rate (January)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (January)/ Bavaria CPI (January)/ Brandenburg CPI (January)/ Hesse CPI (January)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (January)/ Saxony CPI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (December)/ Tourism Revenues Q4/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (January)

·       Hungary PPI (December)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (December)

·       France Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (December)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Spain Retail Sales (December)/ Current Account (November)/ New Car Sales (January)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)

·       Greece Retail Sales (November)

·       Italy PPI (December)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Ukraine Current Account (December)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for France to remove all military forces from Chad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Balance of Trade (December)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (January)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Saturday, February 1, 2025

Global

·       China assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of February.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Democratic National Committee elects a new chair.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman gives the annual budget speech to parliament for the financial year, which begins in April.  The budget is expected to significantly increase government spending on infrastructure projects and the agricultural sector

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Togo holds senatorial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump may impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico (to be confirmed).

·       President Trump may impose 10 percent tariffs on China (to be confirmed).

·       Today is Groundhog Day – Is Spring around the corner or will we have six more weeks of winter?

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Donald Trump Returns to Power, The World Economic Forum Convenes in Davos, Rubio Calls A Meeting of the Quad,  and Japan’s Prime Minister Gives His First Major Policy Speech

January 19 - 26, 2025

Monday will be a historic day in the United States as Donald Trump is sworn in as the 47th President of the United States for the second time.  The world seems to be holding its collective breath, waiting to see what President Trump will do right out of the box after being sworn in.  At this point in time, we know he will sign and issue more than 100 Executive Orders that will cover issues ranging from moving on his promised wide-ranging tariff regime, declaring a state of emergency on the US-Mexican border, loosening oil and gas oil permitting immediately, giving a 90-day extension to TikTok from being forced to shut down, to moving on his vow to begin rounding up illegal aliens and deporting them.  

The incoming Trump Administration is not wasting any time on the national security and geopolitical front, with incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio (who is expected to be confirmed by the Senate and sworn into office on Monday) convening a meeting Tuesday of the Quad – the foreign ministers of Japan, Australia, India, and the US – in Washington to talk about next steps for the mutual security group.  This is seen as a strongly positive signal by the incoming Trump Administration that they intend to maintain the Biden security policies in the Indo-Pacific and ramp it up. 

We also note that Trump spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday.  The call reportedly covered the future of TikTok, trade, and Fentanyl trafficking.  We also hear Trump telling aides that he wants to visit China for meetings with Xi this year.

Also happening this week is the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.  The mega-event runs for four days (January 20 – 24), and this year, a large number of foreign leaders will be speaking (and President Trump will address the group virtually).  You can see the full agenda and list of speakers HERE.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the big reports markets are watching are going to be in Asia.  The Bank of Japan meets on interest rates on Friday, while China will be setting its Loan Prime Rate, although the market consensus at this point is that it will remain unchanged.

In Europe, the Eurogroup (all EU finance ministers plus European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde) will meet to discuss global and EU economic conditions.  Also, in the EU this week, Germany and France released manufacturing reports, while the UK labor market report is out on Tuesday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, January 19, 2025

Global

·       Today is the Orthodox Christian Feast of the Epiphany.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President-elect Trump will hold a rally in Washington, D.C, in advance of his inauguration (tomorrow).  He will also participate in a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 20, 2025

Global

·       The World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland and runs through January 24.   More than 2,500 people are expected to attend.   You can see the full agenda HERE.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East (Gaza).  UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President-elect Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States.  Once he takes the oath, Trump is expected to sign and issue more than 100 Executive Orders – including one declaring a state of emergency on the Mexican border.

· Argentina’s President Javier Milei will be in Washington, D.C., to attend the Trump Inauguration.

·       It is Martin Luther King Day, a federal holiday.  Financial markets are closed in the US.

· Ecuador presidential candidates will debate ahead of the upcoming election on February 9.

·       In Panama City, Panama, the trial begins for Panama ex-presidents Ricardo Martinelli and Juan Carlos Varela, accused of money laundering with Brazilian group Odebrecht.

·       In Tapachula, Mexico, a migrant caravan is expected to depart southern Mexico ahead of Donald Trump taking office as US president.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (December)/ Leading Indicator (December)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Hong Kong, Chinese property developer Country Garden faces a liquidation hearing days after it reported delayed financial results for 2023 that showed a $24 billion loss.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Machinery Orders (November)/ Capacity Utilization (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Tertiary Industry Index (November)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (January)/ FDI (YTD) (December)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. The President of the Eurogroup will invite ministers to engage in a strategic political discussion on the euro area's key policy priorities and the Eurogroup's role in addressing them.  This will include discussions about innovations in wholesale payments and the digital Euro.

·       Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov chairs government meeting in Moscow on Russians living abroad. The Putin government has been working to find new ways to exert greater control of Russians abroad.

·       German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock hosts press conference with Lithuania counterpart Kestutis Budrys to discuss mutual and regional security concerns.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (December)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (December)

·       Greece Current Account (November)

·       Italy Construction Output (November)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (November)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account Q4/ PPI (December)

·       Slovakia Current Account (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Tuesday, January 21, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Countering terrorism in Africa.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Foreign ministers from the Quad Nations – Australia, India, Japan, and the US – will meet in Washington to discuss regional security issues and will be chaired by incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio.  The meeting shows an early emphasis on strengthening regional partnerships that outgoing President Joe Biden championed to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific, despite Biden and Trump’s vastly different world views.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Retail Sales (November)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI Median (December)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (December)

·       USA Redbook (January/18)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (November)/ Imports (November)/ ISE Economic Activity (November)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea's Constitutional Court holds hearings on Tuesday and Thursday in the impeachment trial of embattled President Yoon Suk Yeol. Last week, Yoon became the first sitting president in South Korean history to be arrested, but he is still fighting all charges and refusing to attend court hearings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kazakhstan PPI (December)

·       New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (December)/ Services NZ PSI (December)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (December)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (January/21)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (December)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council  (EU Finance Ministers and ECB Board members) meets in Brussels.  They will discuss the situation in Ukraine, the EU economic governance framework and the 2025 Alert Mechanism Report and the draft Council recommendation on the economic policy of the euro area. 

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Education ministers through January 22.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen addresses the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

·       Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubayev in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Union New Car Registrations (December)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (November)/ Employment Change (November)/ Claimant Count Change (December)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (December)

·       Slovenia PPI (December)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January)/ ZEW Current Conditions (January)

·       Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (December)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (December)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (November)/ Mining Production (November)

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, January 22, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on Haiti followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/17)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (January/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/17)/ CB Leading Index (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/17)

·       Canada PPI (December)/ Raw Materials Prices (December)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (January)

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q4

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (December)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (December)

·       India M3 Money Supply (January/10)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with French President Emmanual Macron in Paris for bilateral talks.   The meeting will also mark the 1963 Elysee Treaty of Friendship between the two countries.

·       Ireland’s parliament will meet to elect a new three-way coalition government.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov chairs the council dedicated to the 'protection of rights of citizens living abroad.”

·       Germany CDU Leader Friedrich Merz on Germany's gives a keynote speech in Berlin on foreign and European policy priorities.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in the Stakeholder Dialogue 'Beyond Crisis: Unlocking Europe's Potential' during World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (December)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (December)/ Employment Growth (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (November)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (November)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (December)/ Total Credit Growth (December)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (November)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (December)/ Retail Sales (November)

Thursday, January 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organizations (League of Arab States). In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Canada,  today is the deadline for the Liberal Party to announce its candidacy in the leadership vote on March 9, following current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (January)/

·       Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (January/18)/ EIA Natural Gas/ Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stocks Change (January/17)/ EIA Distillate Fuel Production & Stocks Change (January/17)/ EIA Gasoline Production/ Heating Oil Stocks/ Refinery Crude Runs Change (January/17)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/22)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (November)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India holds local elections in a number of cities.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (November)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January/18)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/18)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (December)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England External member of the Monetary Policy Committee Carolyn Wilkins gives a speech at Fitch Ratings entitled “Geopolitics and financial stability: a plan beats no plan” in London.

·       Netherlands Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (January)/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (January)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/17)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (November)

·       France Business Confidence (January)/ Business Climate Indicator (January)

·       Poland Retail Sales (December)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Great Britain CBI Business Optimism Index Q1/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (January)

·       Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (November)/ Building Permits (November)

Friday, January 24, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Washington, D.C., the Smithsonian’s National Zoo puts the giant pandas Bao Li and Qing Bao on public display at their renovated habitat on Asia Trail.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (January)/ New Housing Price Index (December)/ Manufacturing Sales (December)

·       Chile PPI (December)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (November)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Existing Home Sales (December)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Final (January)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (January)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Final (January)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (January)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/24)

·       Paraguay PPI (December)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto visits India as it celebrates Republic Day, and the two countries mark 75 years of diplomatic relations. The Indonesian leader has embarked on a whirlwind of overseas tours since taking office in October.

·       Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivers his first policy address at the start of a new parliamentary session.  Ishiba is expected to announce Japan's biggest-ever budget bill, with debate expected over possible changes to income tax rates.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Australia PMI Flash (January)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (December)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and Quarterly Outlook Report

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q4/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (December)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Index (November)

·       Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q4

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/17)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Unification Day in Romania, celebrating when, in 1859, the two Romanian principalities of “Moldavia” and “Wallachia” came together to form the “Union of Romanian Principalities.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a panel discussion "The effects of central bank digital currencies" at the 13th Institute for Law and Finance Conference on the Future of the Financial Sector "Bank Disintermediation – Causes and Consequences" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Spain PPI (December)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ CBI Distributive Trades (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)

Saturday, January 25, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Greece holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday celebrating the country’s constitution coming into force in 1950.  There will be a large military parade through New Delhi.

·       Today is Australia Day, a national holiday commemorating the landing of The First Fleet in 1788 led by Captain Arthur Phillip, who later became the British colony’s first governor. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belarus holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The Trump Cabinet Nominees Get Confirmation Hearings, Iran’s President Meets With Russian President Putin While Germany, France, and UK Meet With Iran Over Their Nuclear Program, And Earnings Season in the US Kicks Off

The geopolitical and geoeconomic radar screens will be full this coming week.  This is the last week of the Biden Administration with the U.S. Presidential Inauguration, one week from Monday.  The U.S. Congress is already moving quickly on many fronts in advance of the incoming Trump Administration, as almost all of President-elect Trump’s cabinet nominees will have their confirmation hearings held this week.  The hearings will give markets a richer sense of many of Trump’s policy proposals – how they will be carried out by the respective nominees, cost, timelines, etc.

We are anticipating fairly quick action on a number of them and the very real possibility that Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary-designate Scott Bessent will be confirmed by Inauguration Day, allowing them to be sworn into office the same day President Trump (which is the historical norm).

Outside the U.S. this week, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian travels to Moscow this week for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and to sign a new comprehensive cooperation agreement.  The agreement includes a new North-South Corridor, which allows for greater trade and energy cooperation between the two countries. 

While this is going on, diplomats from France, Germany, and the UK will meet with Iranian diplomats in Geneva, Switzerland, to again try to persuade Iran from further enriching uranium that could be used in nuclear weapons.  The three European countries were signatories to the 2015 nuclear pact (along with the US, Russia, and China), which President Trump exited in 2018.  It is unlikely Iran will agree, especially with President Trump coming back into office and the face of the multiple foreign policy and military setbacks Tehran has suffered in recent months (the massive degrading of their proxy militias Hamas and Hezbollah and the fall of Syrian strongman and Iranian ally Bashar al-Assad and his regime.

In Asia, Japan’s Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya will be conducting important meetings in South Korea, the Philippines, and the Island nation of Palau, seeking mutual security arrangements as China gets more active and aggressive in the region. 

Turning the busy global economic agenda this week, in the US markets – in their first full trading week of the New Year – are looking at the CPI release on Wednesday, the PPI print on Thursday, and the Fed’s publishing of the Beige Book in advance of the Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting on January 29.  Also out this week are the retail sales report and industrial production data.  All this comes as corporate earnings season kicks off in the US. 

Staying in the Americas, we would also note that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will be announcing a major new public-private sector plan to boost investment in Mexico.  Markets are looking for details of the plan to get a sense of the newly inaugurated Sheinbaum’s overall economic policy focus.

Looking at Europe, the European Central Bank releases its account of the last interest meeting.  The UK has CPI, PPI, and RPI reports coming on Wednesday.

Finally, looking at Asia, China has all-important trade data released on Monday and Q4 GDP figures on Friday, while Japan also releases trade data and bank lending information.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, January 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        First launch of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket from Cape Canaveral, Florida.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves concludes a two-day visit to Beijing to participate in the first UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue since 2019.  Accompanying Reeves will be a business delegation along with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.  The goal of the meetings is to increase Chinese investment in the UK and facilitate easier UK investment in China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Croatia holds its presidential runoff election. Incumbent President Zoran Milanović is due to face rival Dragan Primorac.

·       Germany’s Green Party officially launches its election campaign with Robert Habeck.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Comoros holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Monday, January 13, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (the situation in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Joe Biden gives farewell foreign policy speech at the State Department in Washington, D.C.

·       Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is expected to unveil a new public-private sector plan to help grow investment in Mexico.

·       In Peru, Prosecutors summon President Dina Boluarte to testify about her nose surgery (why did she keep it secret, and did she violate the law by not officially notifying the appropriate authorities that she was being put under for the surgery).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Car Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (December)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)/ Monthly Budget Statement (December)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (December)

·       El Salvador PPI (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya travels to Seoul, South Korea for bilateral meetings to discuss trade and security issues.  From there, he will travel to the Philippines and the Island nation of Palau.

·       Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.  The meeting comes less than two weeks ahead of Belarus’ presidential elections on January 26.

·       The Secretary General of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Hiroshi Moriyama, will travel to Beijing for meetings with senior Chinese officials. 

·       In Pakistan, Ex-prime minister Imran Khan expected to be sentenced in graft case.

·       The Asian Financial Forum begins in Hong Kong and runs through Tuesday. 

·       In Japan, today is “Coming of Age Day”, a national holiday that encourages those who have recently entered adulthood to become self-reliant members of Japanese society. 

·       In India, today is the first day of Kumbh Mela (Pitcher Festival) – the world’s biggest festival with an expected 450 million participants.  Today  Hindu holy men carrying swords and tridents will lead millions of devotees into the icy waters of the rivers Ganga, Yamuna and Saraswati during the first Shahi Snan (royal bath) in the northern city of Prayagraj. The event is held every 12 years.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (November)

·       Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (December)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (December)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Vehicle Sales (December)/ New Yuan Loans (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (December)/ Total Social Financing (December)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (November)

·       India Inflation Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Defence Ministers from Germany, France, Italy and Britain visit Poland for talks on the situation in Ukraine.

·       NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, exchanges with members of the European Parliament (MEPS) serving on the Committee on Foreign Affairs. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Construction PMI (December)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech

·       Turkey Current Account (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Auto Production (December)/ Auto Sales (December)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (November)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (December)

·       Romania Current Account (November)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (December)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account (November)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran holds talks with France, Germany, and the UK in Geneva to discuss Iran’s uranium enrichment program.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique swears in its new parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Current Account Q3

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (November)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). 

·       Today is the Orthodox Christian New Year.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Senate begins the confirmation process for Defense Secretary-nominee Pete Hegseth, Interior Secretary-nominee Doug Burgum, and Veterans Affairs Secretary-nominee Doug Collins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives opening remarks before 4th Annual  "An Economy That Works for All: Housing Affordability" event.

·       Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook before the Central Exchange.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (December)/ PPI (December)/RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (January)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/10)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya visits the Philippines.  The visit is aimed to strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries at a time when the Philippines is facing increasingly tense relations and stand-offs in the South China Sea with China.

·       South Korea’s Constitutional Court will hold its first hearing on the future of President Yoon Suk Yeol after he was impeached in early December. 

·       The National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultive Conference’s (CPPCC) Shanghai Committee hosts opening session of 3rd plenary in Shanghai.

·       Sri Lanka President Anura Kumara Dissanayake visits Beijing for bilateral meetings. It is Dissanayake’s first official visit to China and he is expected to discuss strengthening relations and Sri Lanka’s debt treatment.

·       Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin visits Vietnam for bilateral meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino gives remarks at a meeting of local leaders in Kanagawa, Japan.

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q4/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q4

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (January)/ Building Permits (November)/ Private House Approvals (November)

·       Japan Current Account (November)/ Bank Lending (December)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (December)/ BoJ Himino Speech

·       India WPI Food Index (December)/ WPI Fuel (December)/ WPI Inflation (December)/ WPI Manufacturing (December)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (December)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Finland hosts a Security summit for NATO countries bordering Baltic Sea.  This comes in the wake of several subsea cables being deliberately cut by Russia.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov holds annual press conference in Moscow.

·       French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou delivers general policy statement to Members of Parliament.  Bayrou is currently negotiating a tough budget deal with parliament.

·       Today is Novy God (Russian New Year).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the joint ECB/BoF/HKMA conference on "Europe, Asia and the Changing Global Economy" in Hong Kong.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the Financial Stability Law Forum in Zurich, Switzerland.

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (December)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (December)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (December)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech

·       France Budget Balance (November)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Italy Industrial Production (November)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ M1 Money Supply (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, January 15, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote in the morning linked to Libyan sanctions.  In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). 

·       OPEC publishes its monthly Oil Markets Report.

·       The International Energy Agency publishes its monthly Oil Markets Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Senate holds confirmation hearings for Brooke Rollins to be Secretary of Agriculture, Chris Wright to be Secretary of Energy, Pam Bondi to be Attorney General, Lee Zeldin to be Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Marco Rubio to be Secretary of State, John Ratcliffe to be Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Kristi Noem to be Homeland Security Secretary and Russell Vought to be Director of the Office of Management and Budget Director

·       NASA's Blue Ghost lunar lander launches from Cape Canaveral, Florida. The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will carry the lander.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Maryland Chamber of Commerce "Meet the State 2025: Making Maryland More Competitive" event.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari gives welcome remarks and participates in fireside chat before virtual Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 2025 Regional Economic Conditions Conference.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the Connecticut Business and Industry Association (CBIA) Economic Summit and Outlook 2025.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks before virtual Wisconsin Bankers Association Midwest Economic Forecast Forum.

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (October)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/10)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/10)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI (December)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (January)/EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (January/10)/NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Beige Book

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (November)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (November)/ Wholesale Sales (November)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (January)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladesh’s interim government is receiving a number of recommendations from reform commissions created to review the electoral system, judiciary, and policy.

·       Japanese company ispace launches second uncrewed moon mission from Merritt Island.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import & Export Prices (December)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (January)/ Machine Tool Orders (December)

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Loan Growth (December)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (January)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (November)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO military chiefs hold regular meetings in Brussels.  The agenda includes a discussion of the Euro-Atlantic and the war in Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat at the Global Macro conference of Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the 15th Spain Investors Day 2025 in Madrid, Spain.

·       Bank of England Executive Director Nathanaël Benjamin gives a speech at TheCityUK entitled “The future of stress testing.”

·       Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor gives a speech at Leeds Univeristy entitled “Inflation Dynamics and Outlook.”

·       EU Industrial Production (November)

·       Netherlands Balance of Trade (November)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (December)/ Full Year GDP Growth 2025

·       Romania Industrial Production (November)

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI Output & Input (December)/ Retail Price Index (December)

·       Hungary Construction Output (November)

·       France Inflation Rate (December)/ IEA Oil Market Report

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (December)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (December)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (November)

·       Serbia Building Permits (November)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (December)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique President-elect Daniel Chapo is sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

Thursday, January 16, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations in the morning on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will hold a press conference outlining his priorities for 2025.

·       The International Energy Agency publishes its report on nuclear power.

·       The International Labor Organization releases its report on World Employment and Social Outlook, Trends 2025.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Senate Finance Committee holds a confirmation hearing for U.S. Secretary of Treasury-nominee Scott Bessent while the Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds a confirmation hearing for Elise Stefanik to be US Ambassador to the United Nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (November)

·       Canada Housing Starts (December)/ BoC Gravelle Speech

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (January/11)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Import & Export Prices (December)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/10)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/16)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/15)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vanuatu holds snap parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (December)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Japan PPI (December)

·       Australia Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ Participation Rate (December)

·       Sri Lanka Services PMI (December)/ Manufacturing PMI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visits Moscow for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Swedish counterpart Ulf Kristersson, press conference follows.  Later, the German Social Democratic Party officially launches its electoral campaign with Scholz as its candidate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank publishes the Monetary Policy Meeting Account from the last interest rate meeting.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (December)/ GDP (November)/ Goods Trade Balance (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Construction Output (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ BoE Credit Conditions Survey/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (December)

·       Netherlands Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (December)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (November)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (December)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/10)

·       Serbia Current Account (November)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (December)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision (January)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q3

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, January 17, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council Military Staff Committee holds a meeting in New York.  The role of the Committee – which is a subsidiary of the Security Council – is to “advise and assist the Security Council on all questions relating to the Council’s military requirements for the maintenance of international peace and security.”  They are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza as well as various ongoing UN peacekeeping efforts around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (November)

·       USA Housing Starts (December)/ Capacity Utilization (December)/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/17)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (November)/ Foreign Bond Investment (November)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (November)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s largest car show kicks off in New Delphi.  India is the third largest auto market.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (December)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/11)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/11)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

·       China House Price Index (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision/ Business Confidence Q4/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q1

·       India Bank Loan Growth (January/03)/ Deposit Growth (January/03)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/10)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a virtual keynote lecture at the Crypto Asset Lab conference 2025 organized by the University of Milano-Bicocca.

·       Great Britain Retail Sales (December)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Euro Area Current Account (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI Final (December)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Spain Balance of Trade (November)

·       Germany Bundesbank Nagel Speech

·       Italy Current Account (November)

·       Belarus GDP (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (December)

Saturday, January 18, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Retreat will begin in Langkawi, Malaysia and runs through January 19.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 19, 2025

Global

·       Today is the Orthodox Christian Feast of the Epiphany.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President-elect Trump will hold a rally in Washington, D.C, in advance of his inauguration (tomorrow). 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The US Congress Certifies the 2024 Election, Venezuela’s Opposition Leader Meets with Hemispheric Leaders,  and Canadian PM Trudeau Resigns

January 5 - 12, 2025

We regret the late arrival of this week's Reg Week Ahead.   Technical issues prevented us from publishing on our normal schedule.  We have updated it to incorporate Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement today.

We hope you all had a wonderful New Year holiday.  The world returns to work this week following the holidays, and a lot is happening.  First, the US Congress convened in a joint session on Monday to certify the election of President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance.  The event was relatively quick – about an hour and a half – and much different than four years ago when riots broke out around and inside the Capitol.  

The new Congress was sworn into office last Friday and is busy getting to work.  We would note that Congress's schedule will be quite different this year as the US Senate has adopted a calendar for working five days a week and going for ten straight weeks without a break.  That is quite a change of pace for the Senate, which has worked three days a week for as long as we can remember, allowing members to return home Friday through Monday to meet with constituents.  The market should expect a lot of action in Congress this year at an unrelenting pace. 

Also this week, Venezuela’s exiled opposition leader, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, will continue a series of meetings throughout the Hemisphere with leaders to bolster support for his victory last July in the presidential elections.  Gonzalez will meet President Biden in Washington and then go to Panama, the Dominican Republic.  He recently met with Argentine President Javier Milei.   Meanwhile, Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, who by most independent accounts clearly stole the election in July, will be sworn in for a third term in office this coming Friday. 

Finally, we would note that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned from office early Monday morning.  Having served for nine years as Prime Minister, he faced low approval numbers and internal party dissent that led to the resignation of his Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, Chrystia Freeland.  Freeland is now considered a leading contender to be elected the new leader of the Liberal Party before elections in late October.

Looking at the global radar screen, this week's economic reporting schedule is relatively light.  In the US, markets will be looking at the US jobs report that will be coming out on Friday.  Also out in the US, this week will be the ISM services index on Tuesday and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report on Friday. And last but certainly not least, the Fed releases meeting minutes.

In Asia, China will release inflation data, official PMI prints, and the Caixin services PMI.  In Japan, wage data is out this week, and Bank of Japan regional branch managers are meeting to discuss wage growth. 

Moving to Europe, CPI reports will be released for the Eurozone, France, Germany, and Italy.  The European Central Bank’s consumer expectations survey will also be released on Tuesday.

Below is our weekly report of everything we are watching worldwide this coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

Sunday, January 5, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Monday, January 6, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress holds a joint session to certify the 2024 Presidential elections.

·       Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to resign.

·       President Joe Biden is expected to host a meeting with Venezuelan opposition leader Emundo Gonzalez Urratia at the White House.

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul in Seoul, South Korea.  Blinken will also travel to Tokyo, Paris, and Rome.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Financial Stability” at the Seventh Conference on Law and Macroeconomics being held in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Factory Orders (November)/ Total Vehicle Sales (December)

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (December)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (December)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Business Confidence (December)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (November)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Hesse CPI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (December)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (December)/ Business Confidence (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ M2 Money Supply (November)

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (December)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (December)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (December)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (December)

Tuesday, January 7, 2025

Global

·      Eastern Orthodox Christians celebrate Christmas today. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Greater Raleigh Chamber Economic Forecast: Launch 2025.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (December)/ PPI (November)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Canada Fed Barkin Speech/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Ivey PMI s.a (December)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Redbook (January/04)/ ISM Services PMI/ Business Activity/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices (December)/ JOLTs Job Openings (November)/ JOLTs Job Quits (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/03)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (December)

·       Colombia PPI (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan’s military holds combat readiness training sessions.

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will host Singapore Prime Minister Lawerence Wong for bilateral talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Building Permits (November)/ Private House Approvals (November)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (December)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       India Fiscal Year GDP Growth Prel 2025-24

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (January/07)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (December)/ Halifax House Price Index (December)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (December)

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (December)

·       Hungary PPI (November)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (December)

·       France Inflation Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ CPI Flash (December)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (December)/ Bavaria CPI (December)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Spain Business Confidence (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       For the first time in 13 years, Qatar Airways will resume flights to Damascus and Aleppo, Syria.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (December)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (December)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits Congo.

·       Ghana’s President-elect John Mahama is sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Current Account Q3

Wednesday, January 8, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets on the situation in Syria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Paris.

·       Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia visits the Dominican Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Lectures of the Governors Event in Paris, France.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (December)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (November)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/03)/ ADP Employment Change (December)/ Fed Waller Speech/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/04)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/03)/ FOMC Minutes/ Consumer Credit Change (November)/ Used Car Prices (December)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (December)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (November)

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (November)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Japan Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Services PMI (December)

·       India M3 Money Supply (December/27)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Conservative top candidate for chancellor Friedrich Merz holds a speech on the final day of the CSU annual meeting in Seeon, Germany.

·       Electronic Travel Authorization (ETA) scheme starts in UK for non-Europeans.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Household Consumption (November)

·       Germany Factory Orders (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (November)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ Current Account (November)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Final (December)/ Economic Sentiment (December)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)/ Industrial Sentiment (December)/ PPI (November)/ Selling Price Expectations (December)/ Services Sentiment (December)

·       Great Britain BBA Mortgage Rate (December)

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Serbia PPI (December)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon’s Parliament will hold a session to try and elect a new president.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ ABSA Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Tanzania Interest Rate Decision/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (November)

Thursday, January 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today the US federal government is closed in memoriam for former President Jimmy Carter.  A funeral service will be held today at the National Cathedral in Washington, D.C.

·       Following former President Jimmy Carter’s funeral service, President Joe Biden will fly to Rome for meetings with Pope Francis as well as with Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

·       Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia visits Panama.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will give a speech entitled “Reflections on 2024: Monetary Policy, Economic Performance, and Lessons for Banking Regulation” at te California Bankers Association 2025 Bank Presidents Seminar.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks on "Right Now, It's Putting One Foot in Front of the Other" before the National Association of Corporate Directors New Jersey Chapter Economic Forecast 2025.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Virginia Bankers Association/Virginia Chamber of Commerce Financial Forecast.

·       Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook before the Economic Club of Kansas City.

·       Brazil Retail Sales (November)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (December)/ Auto Exports & Production (December)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (December)/Wholesale Inventories (November)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/09/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/08)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (November)/ Overtime Pay (November)/ Foreign Bond Investment (December/28)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/28)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/04)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (December)/ Car Sales (December)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Elon Musk will hold a conversation with Germany’s far-right AfD's leader Alice Weidel on X.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the University of Edinburgh.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Brandenburg CPI (December)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (December)/ Saxony CPI (December)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (November)/ PPI (November)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Euro Area Retail Sales (November)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (November)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (November)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/03)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani visits Iran for bilateral talks.

·       Foreign Ministers from US, France, Britain, Germany and Italy meet on Syria in Rome.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits Chad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (November)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (December)

Friday, January 10, 2025

Global

·       The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) update on global temperatures.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro will be sworn into office for a third term. Maduro is widely seen as having stolen the election and has imprisoned thousands of opposition figures since the election in July.

·       President-elect Donald Trump is scheduled to be sentenced over cover-up of hush-money paid to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.

·       The US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in the challenge to the federal ban on TikTok.

·       First launch of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket.

·       The Detroit Auto Show begins and runs through January 20.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (December)/ Car Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (December)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (November)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ Participation Rate (December)/ Building Permits (November)

·       USA Non-Farm/ Government/ Manufacturing Payrolls (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Participation Rate (December)/ Average Hourly Earnings/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (January) / Michigan Current Conditions (January) / Michigan Consumer & Inflation Expectations (January) / WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/10)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (November)/ Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Economic Index (November)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (October)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (November)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ Consumer Confidence (December)

·       India Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/03)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (December)

·       China New Yuan Loans (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (December)/ Total Social Financing (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       First flight by Pakistan national carrier departs for EU after four-year ban.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Manufacturing Production (November)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Final Q3/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)

·       France Industrial Production (November)/ Household Consumption (November)

·       Spain Industrial Production (November)

·       Italy Retail Sales (November)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (November)

·       Greece Industrial Production (November)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (December)

·       Germany Current Account (November)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (November)

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ethiopia Stock Exchange launches operations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (December)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (December)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (December)

Saturday, January 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Kosrae Constitution Day, commemorating when the island nation instituted its constitution.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The German Social Democratic Party (SPD) congress to officially sign off on their candidate for chancellor ahead of the election.

·       The German  Far-right AfD party holds their party congress on their election program.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Croatia holds its presidential runoff election. Incumbent President Zoran Milanović is due to face rival Dragan Primorac.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Comoros holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

The Global Week Ahead

The New U.S. Congress Gets Sworn in, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu Undergoes Cancer Surgery, Will A Russian Gas Deal Get Renewed? And A Quiet Week for Global Markets

December 29, 2024 - January 5, 2025

2024 comes to an end much like it started: Russia's bloody war on Ukraine continues apace, violent conflict continues in the Middle East, and US and EU economic decoupling with China continues.  But much has changed, too.  In the Middle East, Hamas and Hezbollah have effectively ceased to be effective terrorist organizations, Syria has thrown off 50 years of horrific dictatorship, and Iran – the sponsor of most of the worst violent activities in the region – suddenly finds itself politically and militarily vulnerable while struggling with an increasingly brittle economy. 

Meanwhile, the EU, Germany, France, and other member states are undergoing significant political shifts as voter sentiment moves more and more governments rightward, challenging existing norms on economic policy, immigration, and common security.  China continues to struggle through deeply rooted internal economic stagnation just as a long-anticipated demographic spiral begins to impact it.

But keeping our focus on what is happening in the coming week, the world remains relatively quiet as we prepare for the New Year's Day holiday.  The most significant events we are watching this week begin in Europe, as Poland takes over the Presidency of the Council of European Union from Hungary.  Poland will hold the presidency for six crucial months as the EU debates how best to continue supporting Ukraine, deal with the situation in the Middle East, and navigate the ongoing internal EU debate on how to handle trade with China and the US and growing demands to increase the overall security of the EU.  There will be national elections in Germany in February, while France will continue to struggle with a badly splintered parliament, which will considerably shift the political calculus in 2025.

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is undergoing major surgery to remove his prostate after falling ill on Friday.  His illness comes as Israel has begun to conduct airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have been targeting Israel with missile strikes in recent weeks, and as combat operations continue in Gaza and tensions remain high on the Lebanese border and Syrian border.

Also this week, a deal allowing Russian natural gas to transit through Ukraine to the EU ends on December 31.  Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico – who met with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week in Moscow –  is pressing Ukraine to renew the agreement and, until that is accomplished, allow the flow of gas to continue.  However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Fico of striking “shadow agreements” with Russia and has vowed to end Russian gas flowing through Ukraine, as Zelensky says it only helps fund the Russian war machine.  The loss of the Russian gas supply would have a significant negative economic impact on Slovakia and Hungary, but it is seen as “negligible” to European gas prices overall.

Turning to the US, the new 119th Congress is sworn into office on Friday.  Republicans take control of the Senate while in the House, Republicans will hold one of the slimmest majorities in US history in the House.  Markets are watching closely to see if the current Speaker of the House, Michael Johnson (R-LA), will be re-elected on Friday.  At least one Republican has said he will not vote for Johnson, and if there are any more defections, Johnson will likely be removed from the Speakership. 

Finally, we would note that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen formally notified Congress this past Thursday that the debt limit will be reached between January 14 and 23, requiring "extraordinary measures" to keep the government operational.  Thus, the new Congress immediately is under pressure to pass both a final 2025 budget and a likely necessary debt ceiling increase.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the holiday-shortened week means economic data are sparse.  In the US, markets watch November home sale figures on Monday and ISM PMI figures on Friday.   In Europe, Germany's unemployment figures will be out later this week, along with S&P PMIs for all the major European countries.  In   Asia, markets are anticipating China's PMI reports.

Below is our weekly report of everything we are watching worldwide this coming week.  We want to wish you a joyful New Year!

Sunday, December 29, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Bolivia will announce the results of its judicial elections held on December 15.  Bolivia and Mexico are the only countries in the world that elect their judiciary.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Mongolia Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its freedom in 1911 from the Qing China dynasty.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Croatia holds the first round of its presidential elections.

·       Georgia will hold its presidential inauguration. Tensions remain high in the country and mass protests are likely to be held in opposition to the swearing in of Mikheil Kavelashvili.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to undergo prostate removal surgery.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (November)/ Private Bank Lending (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Chad holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 30, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a meeting on threats to international peace and security. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (November)/ Nominal Budget Balance (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (December)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (November)

·       USA Chicago PMI (December)/ Pending Home Sales (November)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (December)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (December)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account Q3

·       Panama Current Account Q3

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Rizal Day in the Philippines, a national holiday.  The day commemorates the life and works of Jose Rizal, a national hero who was a doctor and novelist who condemned the Spanish rule of the Philippines.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (December)

·       Philippines PPI (November)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Thailand Retail Sales (October)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Sri Lanka Current Account Q3

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (December)

·       Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (December)/ Current Account (October)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (December)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Greece PPI (November)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (November)

·       Ukraine Current Account (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       French Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu and Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot are expected to visit Beirut, Lebanon to discuss current security issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       South Africa Budget Balance (November)

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (November)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (November)

Tuesday, December 31, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada will release a final report on a year-long investigation into foreign interference in Canada’s federal electoral processes and democratic institutions

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chile Copper Production (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       USA Redbook (December/28)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (October)/ House Price Index (October)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/27)

·       Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q3

·       Colombia Cement Production (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is International Solidarity Day of Azerbaijanis, a national holiday in Azerbaijan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (December)

·       China NBS General/ Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (November)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (November)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (December)/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Unemployment Rate Q3

·       India Government Budget Value (November)/ Infrastructure Output (November)/ External Debt Q3

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       At midnight, a deal allowing the flow of natural gas from the eastern border of Russia through Ukraine to Slovakia and Hungary is set to expire unless a last-minute agreement can be reached.

·       Ground staff at airports in Portugal are expected to go on strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (November)

·       Greece Retail Sales (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       African Union peacekeeping mission ATMIS due to end mandate in Somalia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (November)/ Private Sector Credit (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

Wednesday, January 1, 2025

Global

·       Happy New Year!  Welcome, 2025!

·       Canada takes the chair of the G7 for 2025 from Italy which chaired the group in 2024.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Haitian Independence Day, celebrating the day in 1804 when slavery was abolished – making it the first country in the Western Hemisphere to abolish slavery.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Poland takes the rotating EU Presidency through July 1, 2025.

·       Bulgaria and Romania officially join the EU Schengen Agreement.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Sudan Independence Day, commemorating the day was granted its independence in 1956 from Great Britain and Egypt.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, January 2, 2025

Global

·       Algeria takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of August.  Also today, there will be a there will be a flag Installation ceremony for new members of the UN Security Council: Denmark, Greece, Pakistan, Panama and Somalia.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Prosecutors are expected to summon President Dina Boluarte to testify about her secret nose surgery.  The issue is she apparently kept the surgery a secret and “abandoned” her duties in order to undergo the procedure.  Boluarte has a 3 percent approval rating.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (November)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market/ Refinance/ Purchase Index (December/27)/ MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/27)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/28)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (December/21)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Construction Spending (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December/27)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/02)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/01)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (December)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Mexico S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (December)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Malaysian Court of Appeal holds a hearing on ex-Prime Minister Najib Razak's appeal for house arrest.  Razak is already serving a six-year jail term for corruption related to plundering the country’s sovereign wealth fund 1MDB.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (December)/ Commodity Prices (December)

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Adv Q4/ URA Property Index Q4/ SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Indonesia Inflation Rate (December)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (December)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (November)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands NEVI Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/27)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (December)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (December)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)/ New Car Sales (December)

·       Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Loans to Companies & Households (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Total Credit (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (December)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (December)

Friday, January 3, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The 119th United States Congress is sworn into office. The House of Representatives will decide on whether the current Speaker of the House, Michael Johnson (R-LA), will remain in the role or elect a new Speaker.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Maryland Bankers Association First Friday Economic Outlook Forum.

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ Business Confidence (December)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Colombia Exports (November)

·       USA ISM Manufacturing PMI/ Prices/ Employment/ New Orders (December)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (December/27)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/03)/ Total Vehicle Sales (December)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Adv Q4

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (December/28)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/28)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (November)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (December)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (December/20)/ Deposit Growth (December/20)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/27)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (December)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a panel entitled  "Geopolitical Fragmentation" hosted by the American Finance Association (AFA) at annual meeting of American Economic Association (AEA)/Allied Social Science Associations (ASSA) in San Francisco, California.

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)/ MPC Meeting Summary

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (December)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Germany Unemployment Change/ Persons/ Rate (December)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (December)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (November)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (November)/ M4 Money Supply (November)/ Net Lending to Individuals (November)

·       Greece Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (December)

·       France New Car Registrations (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, January 4, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will chair a panel on "Banking in an Inflationary Environment" hosted by American Economic Association (AEA) in San Francisco, California.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 5, 2025

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Peace on Earth and Goodwill to All Men – The World Goes (Mostly) Quiet for Christmas Week

December 22 - 29, 2024

It is shaping up to be a very quiet week around the world.  Hopefully, most of the world—or at least a good portion of the world—will enjoy a period of peace, with Christmas being celebrated on Wednesday and Hanukkah also beginning on Wednesday. 

We are watching three political events this week:  The first in Washington, D.C., the second in South Korea, and the third in Georgia.  In Washington on Monday, President Biden is expected to announce his decision to either approve or block Nippon Steel's acquisition bid for U.S. Steel.  During the presidential campaign when he was still a candidate, Biden vowed to block the deal to win the support of the United Steelworkers Union, whose leadership strongly opposes the deal (while most of its rank-and-file members support the deal).  Reports indicate the Defense Department, Treasury Department, and State Department support the deal – but the very few indications that have come from the White House suggest Biden will abide by his vow to the union and block the deal, which, strangely, will probably end up hurting the overall steel industry in the U.S. and likely severely hurt relations with Japan (not to mention put a chilling effect on foreign investment in the US).

The second event we are watching this week is in Seoul, South Korea.  The South Korean Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials is expected to summon recently impeached President Yoon for testimony.  Whether Yoon shows up is another question, as he has vowed to continue fighting against his recent impeachment and refused to accept any documents or summons from the Court.  But it keeps the country's ongoing democratic crisis alive.

The third event is in Georgia where recently appointed far-right presidential candidate Mikheil Kavelashvili is scheduled to be sworn into office on December 29.   Kavelashvili was appointed by the country's electoral college, which members of his ruling party dominate.  The country's current president, Salome Zurabishvili – pro-EU and opposed to Russia's war on Ukraine – has called Kavelashvili's appointment as president "illegitimate" and said she will not leave office.  Protests are expected across the nation.

This week's global economic radar screen will be almost as quiet as the international political week.  In Asia, the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia release minutes from their recent interest rate meetings.  In the U.S., the Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index and new residence sales, and we also get the durable goods order report.  In Europe, there really are no major reports out this week.

Below is our weekly report of everything else we are watching around the world this coming week.  We want to wish you a blessed Christmas and a joyful Hannukah.

Sunday, December 22, 2024:

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 26th Harbin Ice and Snow World Festival begins in Harbin, China.  The event spans more than 1 million square meters and features 300,000 cubic meters of ice and snow, drawing tens of thousands of tourists.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico.  It is one of the few meetings Putin has had with any EU leader in the last three years.  The two leaders discussed energy security issues, as Ukraine has pledged to stop the transit of Russian gas through its territory next month.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to open a number of transport/infrastructure facilities across Russia facilities via video link.  Putin launched auto traffic on highway 289 linking Krasnodar, Slavyansk-on-Kuban and Temryuk and the A290 Novorossiysk-Kerch motorway. Putin also took part in the ceremony of opening international airports in Magadan, Cheboksary, and Stavropol.

·       In Spain, the Loteria de Navidad, aka El Gordo, or the “Fat One”, annual Christmas lotto is held.  It is the world’s biggest lottery, which has no single jackpot but rather a complex share-the-wealth system.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Unity Day in Zimbabwe, marking the day in 1987 when two political parties, ZANU and ZAPU, came together to form ZANU-P.F.

Economic Reports/Events –

Monday, December 23, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Current Account (November)/ Foreign Direct Investment (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (November)/ Economic Activity (October)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (December)

·       Canada GDP (October)/ Manufacturing Sales (November)/ PPI (November)/ Raw Materials Prices (November)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (November)/ CB Consumer Confidence (December)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs

·       Colombia Business Confidence (November)

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s cabinet is expected to approve a new tax reform plan.  The plan is aimed at funding a scheduled defense budget hike via corporate and tobacco levies starting in 2026.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (November)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (November)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Albania, opposition parties are expected to block roads across the country, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Edi Rama.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Import Prices (November)

·       Great Britain Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Business Investment Q3

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (October)/ Current Account Q3

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (December)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (October)/ Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (November)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (November)/ M2 Money Supply (November)/ Total Credit Growth (November)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique’s Constitutional Court will deliver a final verdict on the outcome of the country’s October 9 general elections.  The losing opposition party of Venancio Mondlane says the election was rigged.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, December 24, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden is expected to decide on a recommendation by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) on Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire U.S. Steel.  During the campaign season, Biden told the United Steelworkers Union – who adamantly oppose the deal – “he had their back” and would block the deal.  However, there are no apparent national security concerns to the deal, putting Biden in a tough position to come up with a valid reason to block the deal.  Nevertheless, it is widely believed Biden will block the deal.

·       NASA’s Parker Space Probe will come closer to the sun’s surface than any other flight ever before – 3.8 million miles away from the surface of the sun.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chile PPI (November)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (November)/ Redbook (December/21)/ New Home Sales (November)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing/ Manufacturing Shipments/ Services Revenues Index (December)/ Money Supply (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/20)/ Building Permits Final (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

·       Malaysia PPI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds the inauguration of President-elect Maia Sandu.  Sandu won by a narrow margin despite Russian meddling in the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Current Account Q3

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Libya Independence Day, marking the day in 1952 when the country gained its independence from the UK and France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Israel Composite Economic Index (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Global

·       Today is Christmas Day. Markets in Europe, North and South America, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Indonesia, India, and Australia will be closed.  Markets will be open in Japan, mainland China, Taiwan and Thailand.

·       Today is the first day of Hannukah.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya will meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. The two diplomats are expected to explore ways to stabilize relations amid heightened tensions between the two countries.

·       South Korea’s Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials is expected to summon recently impeached President Yoon for testimony.

·       Today is Quaid-E-Azam Day in Pakistan, celebrating the birthday of Muhammad Ali Jinnah’s. He is widely seen as the founder of the country. It is a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kauo Ueda will speak at a meeting of Councilors of Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) in Tokyo.

·      Japan Coincident Index Final (October)/ Leading Economic Index Final (October)/ Foreign Bond Investment (December/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/21)

·      India M3 Money Supply (December/13)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Supreme Eurasian Economic Council (EAEU) meets in St. Petersburg, Russia.  The meeting will be chaired by Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.  The Council brings together the prime ministers of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia to discuss how to further economic integration and will focus on energy and industrial cooperation and the development of e-commerce.

·       King Charles delivers the annual Christmas message.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, December 26, 2024 

Global

·         Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        USA Initial Jobless Claims (December/21)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December/20)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/25)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/25)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (October)

·       Colombia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Taiwanese President Ma is expected to visit with students in Harbin and Sichuan, China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Housing Starts (November)/ Construction Orders (November)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (November)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Slovenia Independence Day, celebrating the day in 1990 when an independence referendum was held separating the country from Yugoslavia.

·       Today is Boxing Day.  The London Stock Exchange is closed as will markets in Hong Kong, Indonesia, and Australia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Spain PPI (November)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (December)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (November)/ Jobseekers Total (November)

·       Turkey Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (December)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/20)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (November)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, December 27, 2024

Global

·         Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Brazil IGP-M Inflation (December)/ Bank Lending (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (December)/ Net Payrolls (November)

·       USA Goods Trade Balance (November)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (November)/ Wholesale Inventories (November)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (December/20)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/27)

·       Paraguay Current Account Q3

·       Costa Rica Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Panama Current Account Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The South Korean Constitutional Court will hold the first public hearing on President Yoon’s impeachment.  Yoon was impeached by the South Korean parliament on December 14.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        South Korea Business Confidence (December)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (November)/ Jobs/applications ratio (November)/ Tokyo CPI (December)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Retail Sales (November)/ Industrial Production (November)

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (November)/ Current Account Final Q3

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (November)/ Current Account (November)/ Private Consumption & Investment (November)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Singapore Import/ Export Prices (November)/ PPI (November)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/20)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chaos Computer Club Congress begins in Hamburg, Germany.  It is the largest gathering of hackers in Europe.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Spain Retail Sales (November)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (November)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (November)/ Business Confidence (December)/ Real Wage Growth (October)/ Retail Sales (November)/ GDP (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (December)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (November)

Saturday, December 28, 2024

Global

·        Today is the Feast of the Holy Innocents.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 29, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Mongolia Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its freedom in 1911 from the Qing China dynasty.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Croatia holds the first round of its presidential elections.

·       Georgia will hold its presidential inauguration. Tensions remain high in the country, and mass protests are likely to be held in opposition to the swearing-in of Mikheil Kavelashvili.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (November)/ Private Bank Lending (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Chad holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

European Leaders Meet on Ukraine, Russia Lost Syria And May Also Lose in Africa, Germany Holds A No-Confidence Vote to Trigger Federal Elections, and the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan Each Meet on Interest Rates

December 15 - 22, 2024

While most of us look forward to the peace and joy (and quiet) of the holidays and New Year, the coming week will be busy on several fronts. European leaders will gather in Brussels this week to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss Russia's war on Ukraine and the unfolding events in Syria. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will join the EU leaders. Russia has ramped up its drone attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets and has begun deploying North Korean troops against Ukrainian forces, and Ukraine needs more military aid.  

Syria continues to be something of a question mark for Western leaders as Syrian rebels move to establish a new government following their shock defeat of Bashir al-Assad's regime. How the rebel coalition will rule and the true intentions of the more radical Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) leadership – which at one point was allied with Al Queda – remain somewhat unclear.

But as the West works to develop relations with the rebels, another unexpected outcomofAssad'ssss overthrow has emerged: It appears Russian military forces, responding to demands from the Syrian rebels, are packing up and leaving some of their bases in Syria -  but not all of them followingAssad'ssss defeat and fleeing to Moscow. As if Assad's defeat was not enough of a blow to Russian foreign policy, it turns out it is now seriously complicating Russia's aggressive and malignant African policy: Russia's airbases in Syria serve as major military supply transshipment centers foRussia's’s military support of Mali, Burkina, Faso, and Niger – all critical mineral-rich countries which experienced coups in the last year (all assisted by Russia), resulting in all three countries cutting ties with the West and allying themselves with MoscoRussia'ssss operational strategy with these countries is now at risk of collapsing.

As European leaders meet, Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold his annual press conference. This elaborately stage-managed event goes on for hours as Putin takes questions from Russians calling into the event. While all the questions are obviously scripted, the event usually reveals something new about Russia's thinking and intentions toward the rest of the world, and it is always worth paying attention to.   

Germany becomes the latest European country to move to snap elections this week, with a no-confidence vote scheduled for Monday. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz saw the collapse of his multi-party coalition last month, pushing him into running a minority government and pressuring him into calling the no-confidence vote.  

According to the most recent polls, the Christian Democratic Party/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) leads with 32 percent, with the far-right AfD in second place with 18 percenScholz'ssss Social Democrats (SPD) are in third place with 15 percent. 

The ultimate winner will likely be the CDU/CSU allying with the Green Party (12.6 percent) and pro-business, laissez-faire Free Democrat Party (FDP). Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it is all about three big central bank meetings: the Federal Reserve Board, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England. The Fed meeting is being closely watched to gauge how much they intend to cut in 2025 and their assessment of inflation (which reports this past week suggest may be creeping back up). Markets are expecting a 25-basis point cut this week.

The Bank of Japan meeting is proving more uncertain for markets. Will the BoJ hold or raise rates another 25 basis points? Will the Bank of England keep rates at 4.75% or cut them? Market consensus suggests they will hold. We also note that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give remarks on Monday that might offer further insights into the state of the European and global economies.

Regarding major economic data reports, markets are watching US retail sales and industrial production reports on Tuesday and PCE data on Friday. In Europe, the focus will be on UK labor market figures on Tuesday and inflation on Wednesday (right before the BoE meeting). Germany, battered of late by a regular stream of discouraging economic assessments, releases the ZEW Surveys on Tuesday along with the Ifo report and then consumer confidence on Thursday and PPI on Friday.  

Turning to Asia, China releases new home prices on Monday and its loan prime rate on Friday, while in Japan, trade balance data comes out on Wednesday, and the November CPI is out on Friday.

Below is our weekly report of everything else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, December 15, 2024

Global

·       The UN Internet Governance Forum begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and goes through December 19.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 3rd China Indian Ocean Region Forum on Blue Economy Development Cooperation meets in Kunming, China.  clean energy, climate change response, and disaster reduction are on the agenda, among other topics,

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)/ Tertiary Industry Index (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.K. officially joins the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) as the 12th member of the Asia-Pacific trade bloc. The general agreement removes trade tariffs between member countries and sets rules on matters such as cross-border investment, e-commerce, intellectual property, and labor. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Jordanian King Abdullah meets with the Saudi Arabian Defense Minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, to discuss the situation in Syria and Iran.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (November)/ M1 Money Supply (November)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (November)/ Wholesale Prices (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi is due to meet with his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame in Angola's capital of Luanda to discuss the ongoing conflict in eastern Congo.

·       Leaders from the West African bloc Ecowas will meet for an annual summit in Abuja, Nigeria. They are expected to discuss the departure of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso from the bloc after a 12-month notice period.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Monday, December 16, 2024

Global

·       The UN 2024 meeting of the States Parties to the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       The UN Economic Commission for Africa will hold an expert group meeting to consult on Africa’s critical minerals.

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem gives his annual address on the state of the economy and monetary policy at the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade in Vancouver, Canada

·       Canada Housing Starts (November)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (December)/ S&P Global Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Colombia Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (October)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra visits Malaysia for talks with counterpart Anwar Ibrahim. Security, economic ties, and regional cooperation will be on their agenda.

·       Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who took office in September, makes his first overseas visit to India, which analysts see as competing with China for influence in the Indian Ocean. Dissanayake will hold talks with the top Indian leadership, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Colombo's debt crisis is expected to be among the key topics of discussion. 

·       India’s Upper House will hold a Constitution debate. Parliamentary members want to debate the essence of ten keywords from the Preamble of the Constitution, speaking on themes like equality, justice, sovereignty, independence, democracy, and socialism.

·       Today is Independence Day in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        New Zealand Services & Composite NZ PCI (November)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)/ Machinery Orders (October)/ Tertiary Industry Index (October)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (November)

·       China House Price Index (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ NBS Press Conference

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       India HSBC Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)/ WPI Food Index (November)/ WPI Fuel (November)/ WPI Inflation (November)/ WPI Manufacturing (November)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Philippines Business Confidence Q4/ Cash Remittances (October)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (November)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

·       Sri Lanka Services PMI (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The German Parliament (Bundestag) will hold a vote of confidence on the current government, setting up an early federal election in February.  The current coalition essentially collapsed last month, creating a minority government.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  EU foreign affairs ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine, Georgia, the Middle East, and Belarus.

·       The EU’s 17th Accession Conference with Montenegro will be held in Brussels.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Energy) will meet in Brussels. Following the presentation of a report on the future of geothermal energy (by Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency), energy ministers will be invited to approve conclusions on the promotion of geothermal energy.  Ministers will also discuss an EU grid action plan.

·       The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) Leaders’ Summit takes place in Tallinn, Estonia, through December 18.  Hosted by Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal, it brings together the leaders of ten nations – Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom – to discuss cooperation within the JEF framework and set new plans for adapting JEF activities to the evolving security landscape. The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) is a coalition of ten like-minded nations with high readiness forces configured to respond rapidly to crises. The JEF can integrate into larger international operations, such as those led by NATO or other security coalitions, and can conduct the full spectrum of operations. It enhances the deterrence messaging of NATO and provides agile, credible, and capable forces supporting JEF Participant Nations interests.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with Montenegro Prime Minister Milojko Spajić at NATO Headquarters in Brussels to discuss security issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will hold a short press conference with Gediminas Šimkus, Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Lithuania, in Vilnius, Lithuania.  She will then give a keynote speech at the Annual Economics Conference: Pillars of Resilience Amid Global Geopolitical Shifts at the Palace of the Grand Dukes in Vilnius.  She will then participate on a high-level panel at the conference.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give remarks at the 8th anniversary of Madrid Foro Empresarial in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give a keynote speech at the CEPR Paris Symposium organized by Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Banque de France and Sciences Po in Paris, France.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Payments Victoria Cleland gives a speech on “The Future Roadmap of Bank of England’s RTGS Service” at the Fintech Connect Conference in London.

·      Ireland Consumer Confidence (December)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·      Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (November)

·      France HCOB Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)

·      Germany HCOB Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)

·      Euro Area HCOB Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)/ Labour Cost Index Q3/ Wage Growth Q3

·      Great Britain S&P Global Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)

·      Italy Inflation Rate (November)

·      Serbia Building Permits (October)

·      Belarus Industrial Production (November)

·      Poland Core Inflation Rate (November)

·      Slovakia Current Account (October)

·      Turkey Budget Balance (November)

·      Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q3

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the Day of Reconciliation in South Africa.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Wholesale Prices (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In the United States, electoral college electors meet in their states to vote for the new president and vice-president on separate ballots and confirm the results of the November 5 election, in which former president Donald Trump won a second term.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Mexico Private Spending Q3/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (November)/ New Housing Price Index (November)/ CPI Median (November)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (October)/ Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (October)

·       USA Retail Sales (November)/ Redbook (December/14)/ Capacity Utilization (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ Business Inventories (October)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/13)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Shanghai’s Vice Mayor, Hua Yuan, will attend an intercity forum in Taipei.  The highly controversial visit comes as China-Taiwan relations are in a highly tense state. Taiwan's Beijing-friendly former president, Ma Ying-jeou, is then scheduled to make his second trip to China this year on Wednesday, leading a group of students on a nine-day trip.

·       The Asia Development Bank-KDI Global Forum on Global Supply Chain and Sustainable Development in Asia and the Pacific is held in Tokyo, Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Singapore Balance of Trade (November)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (December/17)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Turkey to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the situation in Syria.

·        EP President Metsola will award the 2024 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought to María Corina Machado, the leader of Venezuela’s democratic forces, and Edmundo González Urrutia, the President-elect of Venezuela. A press conference with EP President Metsola and the laureates will occur after the ceremony.

·       The EU Environmental Council meets in Brussels. The ministers will discuss plastic pellet losses, end-of-life vehicles, and 2040 climate targets.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the European Council meeting that is taking place on December 19, the legislative overview for 2025, EU enlargement, and the future of Europe.

·       The EU’s 3rd Accession Conference with Albania takes place in Brussels.

·       Germany’s Green Party presents a draft of their electoral program.

·       Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court will hear an oral hearing on the use of Ramstein for US drone missions in Yemen.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give an introductory statement at the ECB Banking Supervision press conference on the aggregate results of the 2024 Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) in Frankfurt, Germany.  ECB Board Member Frank Elderson will then participate at the EDB Banking Supervision press conference on the aggregate results of the SREP.

·      Great Britain Unemployment Rate (October)/ Employment Change (October)/ Claimant Count Change (November)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (November)

·      Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·      Germany Ifo Business Climate (December)/ Ifo Current Conditions (December)/ Ifo Expectations (December)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)/ ZEW Current Conditions (December)

·      Italy Balance of Trade (October)

·      Euro Area Balance of Trade (October)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)

·      Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (December)/ Inflation Report/ Interest Rate Decision

·      Belarus GDP (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (October)

Wednesday, December 18, 2024

Global

·       The inaugural UN Framework Convention on Climate Change will meet to discuss the formation of the Southern Africa Alliance on Carbon Markets and Climate Finance in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Mexico Aggregate Demand Q3

·       US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets on Interest Rates/Fed Chair Powell press conference/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/13)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/13)/ Building Permits Prel (November)/ Current Account Q3/ Housing Starts (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December/13)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ ISE Economic Activity (October)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (November)/ Unemployment Rate Q3/ Leading Indicator (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Macau to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the city’s return from Portuguese to Chinese control.  The Chinese president would inaugurate Macau’s new administration, led by Sam Hou-fai, on Friday and inspect the city during his three-day trip.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        New Zealand Current Account Q3

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (December)/ Westpac Leading Index (November)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (November)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Western Balkans Summit will take place in Brussels.  An agenda has not been published yet.

Economic Reports/Events –

·      European Central Bank Board Member Philip Lane will participate in a fireside chat at MNI Connect event (Virtual).

·      Great Britain Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI Output (November)/ PPI Input (November)/ Retail Price Index (November)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (December)

·      Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (November)

·      Euro Area Inflation Rate (November)/ Construction Output (October)/ CPI Final (November)

·      Ireland Residential Property Prices (October)

·      Russia PPI (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day in Qatar, a holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (October)/ Inflation Rate (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Today is Republic Day in Niger, a holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, December 19, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Syria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Alphabet and Google CEO Sundar Pichai will travel to Mar-A-Lago, Florida to meet with President-elect Donald Trump.   Trump and Pichai are expected to talk about a wide-range of issues, but Pichai indicated in a recent interview AI will likely be the dominant issue of discussion.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (October)

·       USA GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3/ GDP Price Index QoQ Final Q3/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/14)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (December)/ Real Consumer Spending QoQ Final Q3/ Existing Home Sales (November)/ CB Leading Index (November)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (December/13)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (December)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/18)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (October)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (October)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/18)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (December)

·       El Salvador Current Account Q3/ Balance of Trade (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam hosts a massive defense expo to diversify supplies after decades of relying on the old Soviet bloc. Weapons manufacturers from the U.S., Israel and 25 other countries will be among 200 registrants displaying combat facilities and gear for naval, army, air force and cyber functions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q3/ ANZ Business Confidence (December)

·       Bank of Japan meets to discuss interest rates/Japan Foreign Bond Investment (December/14)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/14)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Interest Rate Decision

·       Thailand New Car Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold his annual news conference.  The event, which usually goes on for hours, features Putin taking direct – but prepared/planted – questions from Russian citizens. 

·       The European Council meets in Brussels.  EU leaders will discuss the situation in Ukraine and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will speak in person to the leaders.   UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will also attend.  The leaders will also discuss the situation in the Middle East and then hold a strategic discussion on how the EU can “consolidate its role on the international state and defend [its] interests and promote [its] positions.”

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travels to Bulgaria to visit the multinational battle group at the Novo Selo training ground and meets Bulgarian Defense Minister Atanas Zapryanov.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Bank of England Interest Rate Decision/ BoE MPC Vote Cut/ Hike/ Unchanged/ MPC Meeting Minutes

·       Netherlands Unemployment Rate (November)

·       European Union New Car Registrations (November)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JAN

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (November)

·       France Business Confidence (December)/ Business Climate Indicator (December)

·       Euro Area Current Account (October)

·       Italy Construction Output (October)/ Current Account (October)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (November)/ Employment Growth (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ PPI (November)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (October)/ Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/13)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (November)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, December 20, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (December)/ Federal Tax Revenues (November)

·       Canada Retail Sales (October)/ Budget Balance (October)

·       USA PCE Price Index (November)/ Personal Income (November)/ Personal Spending (November)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/20)

·       Paraguay PPI (November)

·       Colombia Interest Rate Decision

·       Argentina Current Account Q3/ Economic Activity (October)

·       Chile Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Ministers meet in Thailand for talks about the civil war in Myanmar and ways to resolve a nearly four-year-old conflict that has engulfed much of the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Credit Card Spending (November)

·       South Korea PPI (November)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (November)/ Core Inflation Rate (November)

·       Australia Housing Credit (November)/ Private Sector Credit (November)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (December)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (November)

·       Hong Kong Current Account Q3/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/13)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Great Britain Car Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (November)/ CBI Distributive Trades (December)

·       Netherlands Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Germany PPI (November)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (December)/ Central Government Debt (November)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (October)

·       France PPI (November)

·       Switzerland Current Account Q3

·       Greece Current Account (October)

·       Italy Business Confidence (December)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ Industrial Sales (October)/ PPI (November)

·       Poland Retail Sales (November)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (December)/ PPI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Consumer Confidence Q4

·       Serbia Current Account (October)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (December)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (November)/ Total Credit Growth (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (November)

Saturday, December 21, 2024 

Global

·       The Winter Solstice, the shortest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere, occurs.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo will host EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy Kaja Kallas, Italian premier Giorgia Meloni, Greece’s PM Kyriákos Mitsotákis and his Swedish counterpart Ulf Kristersson for the North-South Summit, a two-day security gathering in Saariselkä.

·       Romania’s Parliament convenes for the first time since the recent elections, which were nullified by the Romanian High Court.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Sāo Tomé Day, marking the day when the first Europeans arrived in 1471.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 22, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Spain, the Loteria de Navidad, aka El Gordo, or the “Fat One”, annual Christmas lotto is held.  It is the world’s biggest lottery, with no single jackpot but rather a complex share-the-wealth system.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Unity Day in Zimbabwe, marking the day in 1987 when two political parties, ZANU and ZAPU, came together to form ZANU-P.F.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.