The Global Week Ahead

U.S. – Russia Talks Over Ukraine Begin in Saudi Arabia, G7 Finance Ministers Meeting in Canada, Germany Debates and Votes on a €500 Billion Infrastructure Fund, and the U.S. Congress Races to Head a Government Shutdown

March 9 - 16, 2025

It will to be another momentous week for Ukraine this week as U.S. and Russian diplomats meet in Saudi Arabia to begin negotiations over a possible cease-fire.  The Ukrainians will not be at the table, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will travel to Riyadh to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salem to discuss his concerns.  At the time of this writing – reports that Zelensky may return to Washington along with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanual Macron for meetings with President Trump (however, Macron’s office has denied the report). 

Meanwhile, G7 Finance Ministers are scheduled to gather in Charlevoix, Canada, for two days.  The Ukraine situation will be top of the agenda but they are also expected to discuss a broader range of issues including the situation in the Middle East and delve into “significant issues in the Americas, including the ongoing crises in Haiti and Venezuela, as well as peace and security challenges in Africa, particularly in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.”

Markets this week are closely watching as the German Bundestag (Parliament) begins debating and possibly voting on a €500 billion infrastructure package as well as amending the Constitution to amend the debt brake the country has had in place to avoid deficit borrowing.  This is a historic vote for Germany, being described as a fiscal sea change for the country.  It comes in large part as a result of President Trump’s moves to end military aid to Ukraine and his urging Europe to strengthen its own defenses.

Also this week, the U.S. Congress is racing to pass a stop-gap Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the federal government operating.  The current CR expires on March 14 and the proposed new one will keep funding flowing until September, giving House and Senate Republicans time to hammer out President Trump’s massive tax and budget Reconciliation bill.  Republican leaders are still at odds over key aspects of that bill, with a large faction of House Republicans demanding $2 trillion in budget cuts in order to fund the President’s tax proposals.  Much of that $2 trillion is dependent on Elon Musk’s DOGE efforts to find a promised $2 trillion in government cuts as well as highly controversial cuts to the Medicaid program.

All this comes as President Trump’s 25 % tariffs on steel and aluminum go into effect on Wednesday, mostly aimed at EU exports.  And China’s new tariffs on U.S. imports – ranging from 10% to 15% mostly agricultural imports – go into effect on Monday. 

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, there will be a steady flow of important economic news.  US inflation numbers are being released Wednesday, and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment reports will be released on Friday.   In Canada, the Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday to decide interest rates.

Turning to Asia, China’s inflation prints are out on Sunday.  Japan’s Economy Watchers survey is out this week, too.  Importantly, the Japanese Trade Union Confederation’s initial wage hike agreement votes will be announced. 

In Europe, UK GDP figures are out this week, while Germany releases trade figures and industrial production numbers on Monday.

Below are the other significant events around the world we are watching carefully this week:

Sunday, March 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada’s Liberal Party selects a new leader.

·       Honduras holds primary elections.

·       Daylight Savings Time begins in the US.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will speak at a press conference about the first 100 days of her second mandate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Algeria's electoral body will hold elections for 72 of the 174 seats in its upper house, the National Council.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will pay an official visit to Singapore through March 10.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing in the afternoon on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron might be returning to Washington with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to meet with President Trump to finalize a critical mineral deal and move the Ukraine peace process forward.  However, Zelenksy is also scheduled to be meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salem in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in advance of Wednesday’s US-Russia negotiations there.

·       China’s retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products begin ranging from 10-15 percent on soybeans, pork, corn, and chicken.

·       The Organization of American States will elect its next secretary general.

·       The CERAWeek 2025 Energy Conference begins in Houston, Texas.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (February)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout/ Federal Tax Revenues (January)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (February)

·       Argentina           Tax Revenue (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India and the European Union hold the next round of talks on a trade agreement in Brussels from Monday to Friday as the two sides aim to conclude an ambitious deal by the end of this year, amid rising geopolitical tensions and Trump's tariff threats. The pair relaunched negotiations in June 2022 after a deal failed to materialize despite 16 rounds of talks between 2007 and 2013.

·       China’s annual “Two Sessions’ ends with the National People’s Congress legislative gathering in Beijing.  Last week, the leadership set an economic growth target of “around 5%.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (January)/ Overtime Pay (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Bank Lending (February)/ Coincident Index (January)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (February)/ Leading Economic Index (January)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Car Sales (February)/ Motorbike Sales (February)

·       China National People’s Congress

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels.  The agenda will cover fiscal policy coordination and follow-up from the February G7 finance ministers meeting.

·       President von der Leyen participates in the Interinstitutional Actors meeting with António Costa, President of the European Council, Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, and Paschal Donohoe, President of the Eurogroup.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travels to Bosnia and Herzegovina for meetings with leaders.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Social Policy) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the challenges of the silver transformation.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Research Ministers in Brussels through March 11.

·       Workers at major airports in Germany are scheduled to go on a 24-hour strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Industrial Production (January)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (January)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (January)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Italy PPI (January)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (January)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (January)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (February)

·       Euro Area ECB Nagel Speech/ ECOFIN Meeting

·       Hungary Budget Balance (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Monetary Fund will discuss and conduct the fourth review of Egypt's loan program. 

·       A team from the IMF is scheduled to visit Lebanon to discuss possible financial assistance.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q4/ Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (January)

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriquez Parrilla visits South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (February)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (February)

Tuesday, March 11, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Cooperation between the United Nations and regional and subregional organizations (EU). This will be followed by consultations on DRC.

·       Today is the 5th anniversary of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaring COVID-19 a pandemic.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Greenland holds elections for the  Inatsisartut, their 31-member parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (February)/ Redbook (March/08)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (January)/ WASDE Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/07)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (January)

·       El Salvador PPI (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will pay a state visit to Indonesia through March 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q4

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index & Change (March)/ NAB Business Confidence (February)

·       Japan Household Spending (January)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q4/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q4/ GDP External Demand Q4/ GDP Price Index Q4/ GDP Private Consumption Q4/ Machine Tool Orders (February)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (December)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will host a meeting of military chiefs of staff of nations ready to offer military support for Ukraine.

·       Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europea (OSCE) Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioglu in Moscow.

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council will meet in Brussels.  They will discuss competitiveness and how to improve the business environment, cooperation in the field of taxation, and outcomes of the G20 finance ministers meeting.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travels to visit KFOR (The NATO-led mission in Kosovo).

·       The Paris Defense and Strategy Forum begins and runs through March 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (February)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (February)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (January)/ Auto Production (February)/ Auto Sales (February)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (February)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (January)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (February)

·       Germany Bundesbank Köhler-Geib Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (February)

Wednesday, March 12, 2025

Global

·       G7 Finance Ministers are scheduled to meet in Quebec, Canada.

·       The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is released.

·       The 12th annual World Ocean Summit & Expo begins in Tokyo and runs through March 13.

·       The BRICS Agriculture Working Group meets in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US and Russian diplomats will meet in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia to discuss a possible cease-fire in Ukraine.

·       President Trump’s 25 percent tariff on steel and aluminum goes into effect.

·       Ireland’s Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Micheál Martin will be in Washington DC to meet with President Trump.

·       Belize holds elections for their House of Representatives.

·       SpaceX Crew-10 mission, a Dragon spacecraft on a Falcon 9 rocket, launches from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida on a voyage to the International Space Station

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/07)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/07)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ CPI (February)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (March/07)/ Monthly Budget Statement (February)

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (January)/ Nominal Budget Balance (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Car Production (February)/ New Car Registrations (February)

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (February)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        AI-Semiconductor conference begins in Hanoi, Vietnam, and runs until Friday. Attendees are expected to include executives from Google DeepMind, IBM, Intel, TSMC, Samsung, MediaTek, Tokyo Electron, Panasonic, Qorvo, and Marvel.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (February)

·       Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q1/ PPI (February)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (January)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       India Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Manufacturing Production (January)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal market and industry) will meet in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the competitiveness compass and the clean industrial deal and ways to modernize the single market.

·       The European Parliament will convene in plenary session through March 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the 25th "ECB and Its Watchers" conference organized by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the wrap up and closing remarks at the 25th "ECB and Its Watchers" conference organized by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany

·       Romania Balance of Trade (January)

·       Turkey Current Account (January)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (January)

·       Spain Retail Sales (January)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (March)

·       Russia Inflation Rate (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mauritius celebrates Independence Day, marking when the country gained its independence from the UK in 1968.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (February)

·       South Africa Annual Budget Speech

Thursday, March 13, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan (The 1591 Committee).

·       The IEA publishes its monthly oil report.

·       The Jewish holiday of Purim will begin and be observed through March 14.

·       There will be a 'Blood Moon' total lunar eclipse, seen in North and South America.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Argentine teachers are expected to hold street protests across the country in opposition to President Javier Milei’s reform programs.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Bank Lending (January)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (January)

·       Canada Building Permits (January)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (March/08)/ PPI (February)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March/07)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/13)/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/12)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Industry and Trade Minister Nguyen Hong Dien will meet with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington to discuss reducing the two countries' trade imbalance.

·       Today is Holi, the two-day Hindu festival of colors, celebrating the arrival of spring and the triumph of good over evil.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (January)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (March/08)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/08)

·       Australia Building Permits (January)/ Private House Approvals (January)/ RBA Jones Speech

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The German Parliament (Bundestag) begins debating a € 500 billion infrastructure fund and amending the debt brake.

·       The 8th EU-South Africa Summit will be held in Cape Town, South Africa. The President of the European Council, António Costa, together with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, will represent the EU. South Africa will be represented by President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in an online fireside chat at EIOPA Sustainable Finance Conference 2025 "Driving Resilience and Action in a Warming World".

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (February)

·       Romania Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (January)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (February)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Germany Bundesbank Köhler-Geib Speech/ Bundesbank Balz Speech

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (January

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (February)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/07)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (January)/ Mining Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)

Friday, March 14, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the US Government shutdown deadline.  The government will shut down unless Congress passes a stop-gap Continuing Resolution (CR) by midnight.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (January)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (January)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (January)/ Wholesale Sales (January)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (February)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (March)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (March/14)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (January)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (February)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (January)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Rengo, Japan's largest labor confederation, is expected to release results from the first tabulation of this year's spring wage negotiations. Rengo-affiliated unions have called for an average wage hike of 6.09% this year, surpassing 6% for the first time since the early 1990s.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import Prices (February)/ Export Prices (February)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (February)/ Food Inflation (February)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (February/28)/ Deposit Growth (February/28)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/07)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (January)

·       China Vehicle Sales (February)/ New Yuan Loans (February)/ M2 Money Supply (February)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (February)/ Total Social Financing (February)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone participates on a panel discussion at event "Fifty years of Consob: present and future - Reflections in Bocconi" organized by Consob (Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa) and Bocconi University in Milan, Italy.

·       Germany Inflation Rate (February)/ Wholesale Prices (February)/ Current Account (January)

·       Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Construction Output (January)/ GDP (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (February)

·       Hungary Construction Output (January)

·       France Inflation Rate (February)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (February)

·       Italy Industrial Production (January)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (February)

·       Greece Construction Output Q4

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (January)/ Building Permits (January)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Russia Balance of Trade (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (February)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (February)

Saturday, March 15, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day in Hungary, celebrating the 1848 revolution against the Austrian Empire.

·       Students in Serbia are expected to hold mass-demonstrations against corruption in Belgrade, Serbia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 16, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro will lead anti-government protests.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Wholesale Prices (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.