The Global Week Ahead

European Leaders Gather to Discuss European Defense and Security Planning, Trump Gathers Oil CEOs,  US-Russian Shuttle Diplomacy Continues, and the US, Japan, and UK Central Banks Meet on Interest Rates

March 16 - 23, 2025

It is going to be another action-packed week ahead geopolitically.  U.S. and Russian diplomats are expected to talk in an effort to reach a deal securing at least a temporary cease-fire in Ukraine.  Russian President Vladimir Putin seemed to indicate some support for the idea but then pushed back, saying there are a number of issues he still wants addressed.  President Trump late Sunday indicated he expected to talk to Putin later this week, but no set time or date has been set yet.  All in all, we believe negotiations are likely to be protracted.  Meanwhile, Russian forces have ramped up their assault on Ukrainian positions and made considerable gains against Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region of Russia.

European leaders will gather in Brussels for a Euro Summit this week to discuss how to advance a European defense and security agenda in the face of growing trade and defense tensions with the U.S.  An EU White Paper on EU Security is being formally released this week while German legislators will further consider a historic €500 billion defense and infrastructure package.   Europe is at a historic inflection point in facing a challenge to ensure its mutual defense and security and collective economic interests in the face of tough trade tariffs being placed on it by President Trump and ongoing trade tensions with China.

Meanwhile, President Trump will be gathering oil CEOs at the White House on Monday to discuss how to encourage more drilling in the US.  But with oil prices shrinking lately, the CEOs will likely be looking for guidance on economic incentives to help them achieve the President’s goals.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the week ahead, it will be a big week for central banks.  The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Central Bank of Brazil each meet to discuss the state of the economy and decide on interest rates.  This is likely to prove particularly challenging for the Fed as President Trump rapidly ramps up his tariff agenda.   The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are likely to hold steady on rates.

Looking at what else is happening in Asia, China will be releasing a number of important economic reports, including retail sales for the first two months of the year.  The data comes as Beijing has just finished the Two-Session meetings focused on economic recalibration.  Japan will be releasing trade data on Wednesday and CPI data on Friday.

In Europe, Germany’s ZEW survey is out on Tuesday.  But the biggest economic event in Germany will be the ongoing parliamentary debate over the proposed €500 billion defense and infrastructure package.  A deal has been reached between political parties, and the final vote is expected this week.  Also this week, the UK releases labor market figures.

Bringing it back to the U.S., markets are looking at January retail sales numbers on Monday and industrial production figures on Tuesday.   And in Canada, CPI figures are out this week, too.

Below is what else around the world we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, March 16, 2025

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will convene a meeting in Geneva of the two Cypriot leaders and the Guarantor Powers of Greece, Türkiye and the United Kingdom for an informal meeting on Cyprus.

·       The UN  Climate and Clean Air Conference 2025 will begin and run through March 21 in Brasilia, Brazil.  This year’s theme, “Accelerating Action on Super Pollutants: The Road to COP30.”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro will lead anti-government protests.

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro will address a new session of Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       New Zealand PM Christopher Luxon begins a five-day visit to Delhi for the Raisina Dialogue.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraq will observe a national holiday to honor the victims of the 1988 Halabja massacre. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Wholesale Prices (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 17, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). Also, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1701 report (the Israeli-Lebanese border).  In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 1591 Committee (regarding Sudan) as well as a briefing on the 1540 Committee (dealing with nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons).

·       The OECD Global Economic Forecast will be released in Paris, France.

·       The BRICS Tourism Working Group meets in Brazil.

·       There will be a BRICS Rapid Security Channel Meeting.

·       World Bank Global Digital Summit begins in Washington, running until Thursday.

·        There will be a meeting of the Council of the International Seabed Authority in Kingston, Jamaica.

·       Today is St. Patrick’s Day. We hope you are wearing something green to celebrate.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will hold a meeting with oil executives at the White House to discuss energy production in the face of falling prices for crude oil.

·       Supporters of Jair Bolsonaro will hold a mass rally against President Lula da Silva's government in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Housing Starts (February)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (January)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (March)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Business Inventories (January)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (March)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (January)/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Colombia Cement Production (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Senior Chinese official holds briefing on national economic performance of the first two months of 2025.  They will also hold a media briefing on government efforts to boost consumer spending.

·       The Raisina Dialogue begins in New Delhi, India.  The Dialogue is India’s premier conference on geopolitics and geoeconomics.

·       Britain's Net Zero Minister Ed Miliband visits for UK-China Energy Dialogue.

·       The US-ASEAN Business Council holds a media briefing with representatives from U.S. companies, diplomats and government officials as part of an American business delegation visiting the Southeast Asian nation to mark 30 years of U.S.-Vietnam diplomatic relations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (February)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

·       China House Price Index (February)/ Industrial Production (January)-(February)/ Retail Sales (January-February)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (January)-(February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       India WPI Food Index (February)/ WPI Fuel (February)/ WPI Inflation (February)/ WPI Manufacturing (February)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (February)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Services PMI (February)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  EU foreign ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East (focus on Gaza, Syria, and Iran) but will also discuss the increasingly tense relations with the US.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council will meet in Warsaw, Poland through March 18.  Minters will discuss the EU’s energy security architecture, the energy situation in Ukraine, and critical infrastructure.  On the sidelines of the meeting, there will be an informal meeting of EU Transport Ministers in Warsaw, Poland.

·       The Standing with Syria-Brussels 9th Conference will be held in Brussels.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania Kęstutis Budrys, at NATO Headquarters, in Brussels.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin hosts Tajik President Emomali Rahmon for bilateral talks in Moscow.

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will announce details of his welfare reform plan.

·       In Moscow, a preliminary hearing in the trial of ex-deputy defense minister Timur Ivanov accused of embezzlement.

·       Georgia court to deliver verdict in the case of ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili. He has been charged with fraud.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is awarded a  diploma from the Faculty of Law and Political Science of Université Aix-Marseille in Aix-en-Provence, France.

·       Italy Inflation Rate (February)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (January)

·       Romania Current Account (January)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (February)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (January)/ Core Inflation Rate (January)/ Core Inflation Rate (February)/ Current Account (January)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (January)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q1

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

Tuesday, March 18, 2025

Global

·       The UN Human Rights Council will meet to discuss the situation in Venezuela.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chile Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Canada Inflation Rate (February)/ CPI Median (February)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (February)

·       USA Housing Starts (February)/ Building Permits Prel (February)/ Export Prices (February)/ Import Prices (February)/ Redbook (March/15)/ Capacity Utilization (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/14)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

·       Brazil Business Confidence (March)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (January)/ Imports (January)/ ISE Economic Activity (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Defence Technology Summit will be held in Singapore through Friday. The Summit brings together representatives of government, industry, academia and think tanks to exchange views on defense and security developments. High-level delegates from U.S. companies including Oracle, Boeing and Palantir Technologies are set to attend.

·       A U.S. business delegation, including representatives from Amazon, Apple and Boeing, will visit Vietnam through March 20. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia’s Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Sara Hunter will speak at a banking conference in Sydney.

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (January)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (February)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (March/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels to discuss preparations for the March European Council meeting on March 20-21.

·       The German Bundestag (parliament) will vote on second reading of a €500 billion investment plan for defense and economy.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts French President Emmanuel Macron for Ukraine talks in Berlin, Germany.

·       The 5th EU-UK Parliamentary Partnership Assembly will be held in Brussels.

·       Euronext holds its annual conference.

·       The EU Tax Symposium will be held in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Italy Balance of Trade (January)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (January)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March)/ ZEW Current Conditions (March)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (January)

·       Russia PPI (February)

·       Belarus GDP (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Angola will host direct talks between the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Gutteres will meet with Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, Antonio Costa, the President of the European Council, as well as Roberta Metsola, the President of the European Parliament in advance of the Euro Summit on Thursday.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard will travel to Hawaii (where a large National Security Agency office is located), Japan, Thailand, India, and France for meetings with her counterparts.

·       In Bogota, Colombia, unions and citizens march for the non-approval in Congress of the reforms of Gustavo Petro's government.

·       The Mexico City Congress debates initiative to ban bullfighting in the capital.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins two days of meetings to discuss the economy and interest rates

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/14)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (March/14)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/14)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (March/14)/ / Net Long-term TIC Flows (January)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (January)

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q4

·       Argentina Full Year GDP Growth 2024/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Leading Indicator (February)

·       Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan meets to consider interest rates.

·       New Zealand Current Account Q4

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Machinery Orders (January)/Capacity Utilization (January)/ Industrial Production (January)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (February)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (February)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (March)

·       India M3 Money Supply (March/07)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Tripartite Social Summit will be held in Brussels. The main theme of the tripartite social summit will be ‘Bringing Europe back on track in a challenging geopolitical environment as an attractive, competitive and investment friendly location that protects and creates quality jobs.”  The Tripartite Social Summit is a forum for dialogue between the EU institutions at president level and the European social partners at top management level. The summit is co-chaired by the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission. The participating European-level social partners include: BusinessEurope, the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC), SGI Europe (association of enterprises with services of general interest), SMEunited (association of crafts and SMEs in Europe), Eurocadres (council of European professional and managerial staff).  Participants will discuss the following topics: strengthening the EU in a challenging geopolitical environment, bringing Europe back on track as an attractive, competitive and investment friendly location that protects and creates quality jobs.

·       The European Commission will formally release its 2025 White Paper on the Future of European Defense.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at V Observatorio Finanzas in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Frank Elderson gives a  keynote speech at the annual European Financials Conference organized by Morgan Stanley in London, UK.

·       Euro Area CPI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Labour Cost Index Q4/ Wage Growth Q4

·       European Union European Council Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (January)/ Total Credit (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

Thursday, March 20, 2025

Global

·       The BRICS 4th Agriculture Working Group meets in Brazil.

·       The BICCS 2nd meeting Committee of Energy Officials will be held in Brazil.

·       The International Olympic Committee elects a new president to succeed Thomas Bach. Seven candidates vying for the IOC's top job include Japan's Morinari Watanabe, president of the International Gymnastics Federation. World Athletics President Sebastian Coe is also in the running.

·       Today is the Vernal Equinox, the first day of spring in the northern hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       China will launch 100% retaliatory tariffs totaling more than $2.6 billion against Canadian agricultural products.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee announces their interest rate decision followed by a press conference held by Fed Chair Jay Powell.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem gives a speech at the Calgary Economic Development event.

·       Mexico Private Spending Q4

·       Canada PPI (February)/ Raw Materials Prices (February)

·       USA Current Account Q4/ Initial Jobless Claims (March/15)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (March)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (March)/ Philly Fed Employment (March)/ Philly Fed New Orders (March)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (March)/ Existing Home Sales (February)/ CB Leading Index (February)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March/14)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/20)/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/19)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Australia Employment Change (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Participation Rate (February)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (March)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (February)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Euro Summit will be held in Brussels, bringing together leaders from all 27 EU member states to discuss a stronger defense and security agenda as well as President Trump’s tariffs on EU goods and services.

·       The European Council will meet in Brussels.

·       The EU is expected to release an action plan to support Europe's steel sector.

·       Britain's Prince William visits Tallinn, Estonia to meet with British troops deployed as part of NATO's eastern flank reinforcement.

·       Bloomberg holds its Future of Finance Paris 2025 conference in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at the UCC Economics Society's Conference at University College Cork (UCC) in Cork, Ireland.

·       Germany PPI (February)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (February)/ SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       The Bank of England meets to decide on interest rates.

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (January)/ Employment Change (January)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (February)/ Claimant Count Change (February)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (March)

·       Italy Construction Output (January)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (February)/ Employment Growth (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ PPI (February)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (January)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (January)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/14)/ Central Government Debt (February)

·       Serbia Current Account (January)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (February)

·       European Union European Council Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar is expected to travel to London for meetings with Prime Minister Kier Starmer.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (February)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (February)/ Total Credit Growth (February)

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Inflation Expectations (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (January)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, March 21, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East (Gaza).

·       Today is World Downs Syndrome Day. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa and leftist Luisa González debate before the presidential runoff.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the 2nd Biennial Macroeconometric Caribbean Conference organized by the Central Bank of The Bahamas and the Indiana University Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research (CAEPR).

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       USA Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (March/21)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (January)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (February)

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (February)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Operation Freedom Shield – joint US-South Korean military exercises – begin in South Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (February)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Credit Card Spending (February)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (March)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Foreign Bond Investment (March/15)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/15)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Hong Kong Current Account Q4

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/14)

·       China FDI (YTD) (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (March)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (February)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       France Business Confidence (March)/ Business Climate Indicator (March)

·       Euro Area Current Account (January)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (March)

·       Greece Current Account (January)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (March)/ PPI (February)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Italy Current Account (January)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Consumer Confidence Q1

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (February)

·       Slovakia Current Account (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nowruz – the Persian New Year – is observed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Namibia Independence Day. President-elect Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah will be sworn into office, the country's first female president.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, March 22, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Curaçao holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 23, 2025 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentine President Javier Milei will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Israel. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The China Development Forum begins in Beijing, China.  The Forum brings together international business leaders and Chinese officials for meetings through March 24.

·       Pakistan celebrates Republic Day. The government will hold large military parades showing a wide array of weapons, including nuclear capable weapons systems.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania Presidential Election (1st Round)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey's main opposition party, the Republican People's Party, will hold presidential primaries ahead of Turkey's 2028 presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

U.S. – Russia Talks Over Ukraine Begin in Saudi Arabia, G7 Finance Ministers Meeting in Canada, Germany Debates and Votes on a €500 Billion Infrastructure Fund, and the U.S. Congress Races to Head a Government Shutdown

March 9 - 16, 2025

It will to be another momentous week for Ukraine this week as U.S. and Russian diplomats meet in Saudi Arabia to begin negotiations over a possible cease-fire.  The Ukrainians will not be at the table, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will travel to Riyadh to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salem to discuss his concerns.  At the time of this writing – reports that Zelensky may return to Washington along with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanual Macron for meetings with President Trump (however, Macron’s office has denied the report). 

Meanwhile, G7 Finance Ministers are scheduled to gather in Charlevoix, Canada, for two days.  The Ukraine situation will be top of the agenda but they are also expected to discuss a broader range of issues including the situation in the Middle East and delve into “significant issues in the Americas, including the ongoing crises in Haiti and Venezuela, as well as peace and security challenges in Africa, particularly in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.”

Markets this week are closely watching as the German Bundestag (Parliament) begins debating and possibly voting on a €500 billion infrastructure package as well as amending the Constitution to amend the debt brake the country has had in place to avoid deficit borrowing.  This is a historic vote for Germany, being described as a fiscal sea change for the country.  It comes in large part as a result of President Trump’s moves to end military aid to Ukraine and his urging Europe to strengthen its own defenses.

Also this week, the U.S. Congress is racing to pass a stop-gap Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the federal government operating.  The current CR expires on March 14 and the proposed new one will keep funding flowing until September, giving House and Senate Republicans time to hammer out President Trump’s massive tax and budget Reconciliation bill.  Republican leaders are still at odds over key aspects of that bill, with a large faction of House Republicans demanding $2 trillion in budget cuts in order to fund the President’s tax proposals.  Much of that $2 trillion is dependent on Elon Musk’s DOGE efforts to find a promised $2 trillion in government cuts as well as highly controversial cuts to the Medicaid program.

All this comes as President Trump’s 25 % tariffs on steel and aluminum go into effect on Wednesday, mostly aimed at EU exports.  And China’s new tariffs on U.S. imports – ranging from 10% to 15% mostly agricultural imports – go into effect on Monday. 

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, there will be a steady flow of important economic news.  US inflation numbers are being released Wednesday, and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment reports will be released on Friday.   In Canada, the Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday to decide interest rates.

Turning to Asia, China’s inflation prints are out on Sunday.  Japan’s Economy Watchers survey is out this week, too.  Importantly, the Japanese Trade Union Confederation’s initial wage hike agreement votes will be announced. 

In Europe, UK GDP figures are out this week, while Germany releases trade figures and industrial production numbers on Monday.

Below are the other significant events around the world we are watching carefully this week:

Sunday, March 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada’s Liberal Party selects a new leader.

·       Honduras holds primary elections.

·       Daylight Savings Time begins in the US.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will speak at a press conference about the first 100 days of her second mandate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Algeria's electoral body will hold elections for 72 of the 174 seats in its upper house, the National Council.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will pay an official visit to Singapore through March 10.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing in the afternoon on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron might be returning to Washington with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to meet with President Trump to finalize a critical mineral deal and move the Ukraine peace process forward.  However, Zelenksy is also scheduled to be meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salem in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in advance of Wednesday’s US-Russia negotiations there.

·       China’s retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products begin ranging from 10-15 percent on soybeans, pork, corn, and chicken.

·       The Organization of American States will elect its next secretary general.

·       The CERAWeek 2025 Energy Conference begins in Houston, Texas.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (February)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout/ Federal Tax Revenues (January)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (February)

·       Argentina           Tax Revenue (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India and the European Union hold the next round of talks on a trade agreement in Brussels from Monday to Friday as the two sides aim to conclude an ambitious deal by the end of this year, amid rising geopolitical tensions and Trump's tariff threats. The pair relaunched negotiations in June 2022 after a deal failed to materialize despite 16 rounds of talks between 2007 and 2013.

·       China’s annual “Two Sessions’ ends with the National People’s Congress legislative gathering in Beijing.  Last week, the leadership set an economic growth target of “around 5%.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (January)/ Overtime Pay (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Bank Lending (February)/ Coincident Index (January)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (February)/ Leading Economic Index (January)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Car Sales (February)/ Motorbike Sales (February)

·       China National People’s Congress

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels.  The agenda will cover fiscal policy coordination and follow-up from the February G7 finance ministers meeting.

·       President von der Leyen participates in the Interinstitutional Actors meeting with António Costa, President of the European Council, Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, and Paschal Donohoe, President of the Eurogroup.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travels to Bosnia and Herzegovina for meetings with leaders.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Social Policy) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the challenges of the silver transformation.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Research Ministers in Brussels through March 11.

·       Workers at major airports in Germany are scheduled to go on a 24-hour strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Industrial Production (January)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (January)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (January)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Italy PPI (January)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (January)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (January)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (February)

·       Euro Area ECB Nagel Speech/ ECOFIN Meeting

·       Hungary Budget Balance (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Monetary Fund will discuss and conduct the fourth review of Egypt's loan program. 

·       A team from the IMF is scheduled to visit Lebanon to discuss possible financial assistance.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q4/ Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (January)

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriquez Parrilla visits South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (February)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (February)

Tuesday, March 11, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Cooperation between the United Nations and regional and subregional organizations (EU). This will be followed by consultations on DRC.

·       Today is the 5th anniversary of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaring COVID-19 a pandemic.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Greenland holds elections for the  Inatsisartut, their 31-member parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (February)/ Redbook (March/08)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (January)/ WASDE Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/07)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (January)

·       El Salvador PPI (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will pay a state visit to Indonesia through March 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q4

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index & Change (March)/ NAB Business Confidence (February)

·       Japan Household Spending (January)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q4/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q4/ GDP External Demand Q4/ GDP Price Index Q4/ GDP Private Consumption Q4/ Machine Tool Orders (February)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (December)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will host a meeting of military chiefs of staff of nations ready to offer military support for Ukraine.

·       Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europea (OSCE) Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioglu in Moscow.

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council will meet in Brussels.  They will discuss competitiveness and how to improve the business environment, cooperation in the field of taxation, and outcomes of the G20 finance ministers meeting.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travels to visit KFOR (The NATO-led mission in Kosovo).

·       The Paris Defense and Strategy Forum begins and runs through March 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (February)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (February)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (January)/ Auto Production (February)/ Auto Sales (February)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (February)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (January)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (February)

·       Germany Bundesbank Köhler-Geib Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (February)

Wednesday, March 12, 2025

Global

·       G7 Finance Ministers are scheduled to meet in Quebec, Canada.

·       The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is released.

·       The 12th annual World Ocean Summit & Expo begins in Tokyo and runs through March 13.

·       The BRICS Agriculture Working Group meets in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US and Russian diplomats will meet in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia to discuss a possible cease-fire in Ukraine.

·       President Trump’s 25 percent tariff on steel and aluminum goes into effect.

·       Ireland’s Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Micheál Martin will be in Washington DC to meet with President Trump.

·       Belize holds elections for their House of Representatives.

·       SpaceX Crew-10 mission, a Dragon spacecraft on a Falcon 9 rocket, launches from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida on a voyage to the International Space Station

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/07)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/07)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ CPI (February)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (March/07)/ Monthly Budget Statement (February)

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (January)/ Nominal Budget Balance (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Car Production (February)/ New Car Registrations (February)

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (February)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        AI-Semiconductor conference begins in Hanoi, Vietnam, and runs until Friday. Attendees are expected to include executives from Google DeepMind, IBM, Intel, TSMC, Samsung, MediaTek, Tokyo Electron, Panasonic, Qorvo, and Marvel.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (February)

·       Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q1/ PPI (February)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (January)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       India Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Manufacturing Production (January)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal market and industry) will meet in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the competitiveness compass and the clean industrial deal and ways to modernize the single market.

·       The European Parliament will convene in plenary session through March 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the 25th "ECB and Its Watchers" conference organized by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the wrap up and closing remarks at the 25th "ECB and Its Watchers" conference organized by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany

·       Romania Balance of Trade (January)

·       Turkey Current Account (January)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (January)

·       Spain Retail Sales (January)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (March)

·       Russia Inflation Rate (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mauritius celebrates Independence Day, marking when the country gained its independence from the UK in 1968.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (February)

·       South Africa Annual Budget Speech

Thursday, March 13, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan (The 1591 Committee).

·       The IEA publishes its monthly oil report.

·       The Jewish holiday of Purim will begin and be observed through March 14.

·       There will be a 'Blood Moon' total lunar eclipse, seen in North and South America.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Argentine teachers are expected to hold street protests across the country in opposition to President Javier Milei’s reform programs.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Bank Lending (January)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (January)

·       Canada Building Permits (January)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (March/08)/ PPI (February)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March/07)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/13)/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/12)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Industry and Trade Minister Nguyen Hong Dien will meet with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington to discuss reducing the two countries' trade imbalance.

·       Today is Holi, the two-day Hindu festival of colors, celebrating the arrival of spring and the triumph of good over evil.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (January)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (March/08)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/08)

·       Australia Building Permits (January)/ Private House Approvals (January)/ RBA Jones Speech

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The German Parliament (Bundestag) begins debating a € 500 billion infrastructure fund and amending the debt brake.

·       The 8th EU-South Africa Summit will be held in Cape Town, South Africa. The President of the European Council, António Costa, together with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, will represent the EU. South Africa will be represented by President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in an online fireside chat at EIOPA Sustainable Finance Conference 2025 "Driving Resilience and Action in a Warming World".

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (February)

·       Romania Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (January)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (February)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Germany Bundesbank Köhler-Geib Speech/ Bundesbank Balz Speech

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (January

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (February)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/07)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (January)/ Mining Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)

Friday, March 14, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the US Government shutdown deadline.  The government will shut down unless Congress passes a stop-gap Continuing Resolution (CR) by midnight.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (January)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (January)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (January)/ Wholesale Sales (January)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (February)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (March)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (March/14)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (January)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (February)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (January)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Rengo, Japan's largest labor confederation, is expected to release results from the first tabulation of this year's spring wage negotiations. Rengo-affiliated unions have called for an average wage hike of 6.09% this year, surpassing 6% for the first time since the early 1990s.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import Prices (February)/ Export Prices (February)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (February)/ Food Inflation (February)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (February/28)/ Deposit Growth (February/28)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/07)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (January)

·       China Vehicle Sales (February)/ New Yuan Loans (February)/ M2 Money Supply (February)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (February)/ Total Social Financing (February)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone participates on a panel discussion at event "Fifty years of Consob: present and future - Reflections in Bocconi" organized by Consob (Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa) and Bocconi University in Milan, Italy.

·       Germany Inflation Rate (February)/ Wholesale Prices (February)/ Current Account (January)

·       Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Construction Output (January)/ GDP (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (February)

·       Hungary Construction Output (January)

·       France Inflation Rate (February)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (February)

·       Italy Industrial Production (January)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (February)

·       Greece Construction Output Q4

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (January)/ Building Permits (January)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Russia Balance of Trade (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (February)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (February)

Saturday, March 15, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day in Hungary, celebrating the 1848 revolution against the Austrian Empire.

·       Students in Serbia are expected to hold mass-demonstrations against corruption in Belgrade, Serbia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 16, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro will lead anti-government protests.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Wholesale Prices (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Russia’s War on Ukraine At An Inflection Point, The EU Meets to Discuss Its Security Future, China’s People’s Political Consultative Conference and National People’s Congress Meet, Trump’s Canada/Mexico/China Tariffs Go Into Effect, and The ECB Sets Interest Rates

March 2 - 9, 2025

It is not often you can write that the coming week is likely to be truly historic, a true crossroads of where the world will go.  This appears to be one of those weeks.  Following the bizarre blow-up in the White House Oval Office between President Trump, Vice President Vance, and Ukrainian President Zelensky, the future of Ukraine’s freedom lies in the balance and Europe looks to be poised to begin pursuing their own security arrangements out of fear of being abandoned by the US after 80 years of mutual security arrangements.

Today (Sunday) saw British Prime Minister Keir Starmer hosting a summit in London where he called for a “coalition of the willing” to defend Ukraine.  Both the UK and France committed to sending peacekeeping troops to help in the efforts to reach a cease-fire.  Later this week, There will be a Special European Council meeting in Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine and what the EU should do as President Trump continues to attack President Zelensky and suggest the US will stop militarily supporting Ukraine.  As European Council President António Costa said, “We are living in a defining moment for Ukraine and European security.”

At the time of this writing, President Zelensky has told reporters he is still ready to sign a U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal despite the shouting match with President Trump and being kicked out of the White House.  But what is not clear is how – or even if – Trump and Zelensky can patch up their relationship to even sign the deal.

Meanwhile, China’s National People’s Congress and People’s Consultative Conference come together to meet in Beijing this week.   The meetings will offer important insights into where Beijing will steer the economy and how it might deal with President Trump and forthcoming tariffs.  The meetings will not be easy for Chinese leaders to successfully manage market expectations of economic policy.

The new US tariffs on China – now set at 20% by President Trump – are scheduled to go into effect this coming Saturday.  Canada and Mexico are also set to get hit with 25% tariffs by President Trump.  We would note that Trump indicated over the weekend he has ordered a new probe of Canada’s lumber exports to the US, suggesting he will place new tariffs on that sector, too.  Up to 30 percent of softwood lumber used to build houses in the US comes from Canada.  And a large percentage of gypsum (used for drywall) used in US housing comes from Canada.

We are likely to learn more about President Trump’s tariff agenda when he addresses a Joint Session of Congress on Tuesday.  The Annual State of the Union speech will offer Trump an opportunity to also lay out more details of his domestic and foreign policy agenda for the year.  He is expected to make a strong push for his signature tax and budget Reconciliation package currently being put together in the House of Representatives.

 Also this week, Canada’s Liberal Party will choose a new leader on Sunday to replace incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. 

 Turning to the global economic radar screen, the big event of the week is the European Central Bank meeting to decide interest rates Thursday.  Markets are expecting another likely 25 basis points. 

Markets are looking at major data releases this week out of Asia. China releases official PMIs for February as well as trade data while the People’s Congress is being held.

Bringing it back to the US, the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on Wednesday as well as the ISM indices.  Fed Chair Jay Powell will also give a speech on the state of the economy on Friday after jobs data is released that morning.    

Below is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, March 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The 97th Academy Awards ceremony is held, where they give a bunch of awards for movies most of us have never seen or heard of.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Tajikistan holds parliamentary and local elections.

·       Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces a deadline to get his proposed budget passed by the lower house of parliament.

·       Today is Peasant Day in Myanmar, held to celebrate the hard work of peasants. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is hosting an informal meeting with EU leaders on Ukraine and security in Europe. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte will also attend.

·       Austria's liberal Neos party members will vote to approve a coalition agreement with the center-right Austrian People's Party and the center-left Social Democratic Party.

·       Hamburg, Germany holds state elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 3, 2025

Global

·       The UN hosts the Organizational Session for the 2026 UN Water Conference at the United Nations Headquarters in New York. 

·       The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency meet in Vienna, Austria through March 7.

·       The UN hosts the 3rd meeting of countries party to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

·       Ambassador Christina Markus Lassen, Permanent Representative of Denmark and President of the Security Council for the month of March, will hold a press briefing on the agenda for the month. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2025 Pacific Operational Science & Technology (POST) five-day conference begins in Honolulu, Hawaii, hosted by the National Defense Industrial Association and the US Indo-Pacific Command.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in a moderated conversation before the National Association for Business Economics 41st Annual Economic Policy Conference.

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Business Confidence (February)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (January)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (February)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment & New Orders & Prices (February)/ Construction Spending (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       An International Monetary Fund delegation will arrive in Pakistan for the first review of Pakistan's bailout fund.

·       In the Philippines, Combined Arms Training Exercise “Catex” takes place in Luzon, Mindanao, and Visayas.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Terms of Trade Q4/ Import Prices Q4/ Export Prices Q4

·       Australia S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI (February)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (February)/ Company Gross Profits Q4/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (February)/ Business Inventories Q4/ Commodity Prices (February)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (January)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will participate in the Strategic Dialogue on the Future of the European Automotive Industry in Brussels.

·       He EU Central Asia Ministerial Meeting takes place in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan.

·       MWC Barcelona, the biggest annual event for the telecommunications industry, kicks off on Monday. The four-day event will welcome some of the biggest names in mobile networks and devices, satellites and more, including Huawei and Xiaomi of China, Japan's SoftBank and SK Hynix of South Korea.

·       NATO holds Dynamic Mantra 25 joint maritime exercises in the Mediterranean Sea through March 14.

·       Today is Bulgarian Independence Day, celebrating when the country became an independent state in 1878 after more than 500 years of Ottoman control.

·       Paris Fashion Week begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank  (ECB) Board Member Claudia Buch, who chairs the ECB Supervisory Board, gives a keynote speech at the18th Finanzplatztag event organized by Börsenzeitung in Frankfurt, Germany.  She is expected to talk about banking union, its challenges and achievements.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (February)/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (February)/ PPI (February)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (January)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ New Car Sales (February)

·       Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Full Year GDP Growth 2024/ Government Budget 2024/ New Car Registrations (February)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (January)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ M4 Money Supply (January)/ Net Lending to Individuals (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ CPI Flash (February)

·       Ukraine Current Account (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan PPI (January)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (February)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (February)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)/ M2 Money Supply (January)

Tuesday, March 4, 2025

Global

·       UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will be in Cairo, Egypt to join the Extraordinary Summit of the League of Arab States to discuss the reconstruction of Gaza.  Leaders from across the Arab world will come together in this emergency meeting to discuss what can be done to rebuild Gaza and on what potential timeframe. 

·       It is “Fat Tuesday” – otherwise known as Shrove Tuesday and in New Orleans, Louisiana, Mardi Gras – in advance of Lent.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US President Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress (the State of the Union Address).

·       US tariffs on Canada and Mexico are scheduled to go into effect, putting 25% tariffs on goods for both countries.  Additionally, the US is putting a 20% increase in tariffs on China’s goods.

·       The U.S. Supreme Court hears oral arguments in a Mexican lawsuit against U.S. gun manufacturers.

·       Mayoral elections are held in the US cities of Aspen, Colorado, Chattanooga, Tennessee, and Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in moderated discussion at a Bloomberg Invest event organized by Bloomberg LP in New York.

·       USA Redbook (March/01)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (March)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/28)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (February)

·       Colombia Exports (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the country's top political advisory body, and the legislative National People's Congress (NPC) both hold their annual meetings in Beijing. Premier Li Qiang is expected to announce economic growth and budget targets, as markets watch for signs of how Beijing will move to boost domestic demand and navigate U.S. trade tensions.

·       The Philippines will host the Asia-Pacific Trade Facilitation Conference 2025 in Manila through March 5.

·       South Korea launches its first alternative stock trading system with longer trading hours and lower fees, a move aimed at luring more investors. Nextrade will offer trading services from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m., challenging the Korea Exchange which has been the country's sole bourse since 1956.

·       Singapore hosts the inaugural Business Aviation Asia Forum & Expo, with more than 50 participating companies including Boeing Business Jets, Dassault Aviation and Honeywell. The three-day event will alternate with the biennial Singapore Airshow, one of Asia's largest industry expos.

·       Micronesia holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (January)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (March/04)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (January)/ Jobs/applications ratio (January)/ Capital Spending Q4/ Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes/ Retail Sales (January)/ Current Account Q4/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q4

·       Philippines PPI (January)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications ministers in Brussels through March 5.  There is no formal agenda.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will participate in the Strategic Dialogue on Steel in Brussels.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with Myanmar's military leader, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       France Budget Balance (January)/ New Car Registrations (February)

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q4

·       Spain Unemployment Change (February)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Euro Area Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Ireland Construction Output Q4

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (February)

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q4

Wednesday, March 5, 2025

Global

·       Today is Ash Wednesday, the start of the Lenten season, six weeks before Easter is celebrated in the Western rite of Christianity.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich in Washington, D.C.  to discuss Gaza and other regional issues.

·       The Ottawa Conference on Security and Defense begins in Ottawa, Canada and runs through March 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (January)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (February)

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (December)

·       US Federal Reserve Beige Book/MBA Mortgage Market Index (February/28)/ MBA Purchase Index (February/28)/ ADP Employment Change (February)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (February)/ ISM Services PMI (February)/ Factory Orders (January)/ ISM Services Business Activity/ Services Employment/ Services New Orders/ Services Prices (February)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February/28)/ Total Vehicle Sales (February)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q4/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (February)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (February)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (February)

·       Colombia PPI (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN-Cambodian Business Summit begins in Phnom Penh.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech at an IMF event entitled “Asia and the IMF: Resilience through Cooperation” in Tokyo.

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida gives a speech to local leaders in Shizuoka, Japan.

·       Australia RBA Hauser Speech/ Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (February)/ S&P Global Australia Composite & Services PMI (February)/ GDP Growth Rate/ Capital Expenditure/ Chain Price Index/ Final Consumption Q4/ RBA Payments System Board Meeting

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (February)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI (February)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (February)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (February)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (February)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February/21)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Services PMI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) will meet in Brussels.  They will discuss the current entry/exit system, the state of the Schengen Agreement, migration issues, and internal security issues.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with World Bank President Ajay Banga in Brussels.

·       Today is the 75th Anniversary of Josef Stalin’s death.  You might want to watch the 2018 movie “The Death of Stalin” to celebrate the death of this horrific tyrant.  It is both quite dark comedy and, amazingly, nearly 100 percent factually accurate about the bizarre internal social and political struggle among members of the Soviet Politburo that emerged following Stalin’s death.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Governing Council begins a two-day monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Chief Economist Huw Pill, Alan Taylor, and Megan Greene will testify before the UK Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee on the February Monetary Report.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (February)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ Business Confidence (February)/ Corporate Profits (December)/ Real Wage Growth (December)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (February)

·       France Industrial Production (January)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (February)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (February)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (February)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (February)/ PPI (January)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (February)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (February)

·       Serbia PPI (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (February)

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (February)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (February)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (February)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (February)/ Business Confidence Q1

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (February)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (February)

Thursday, March 6, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent speaks at the Economic Club of New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives an economic outlook at the Wall Street Journal CFO Network Summit, New York, New York.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in conversation on the economic outlook with some focus on the Birmingham, Alabama region.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (February)/ Industrial Production (January)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (February)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Initial Jobless Claims (March/01)/ Wholesale Inventories (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/28)/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/05)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/06)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Ivey PMI s.a (February)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (March/01)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/01)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Building Permits (January)/ Private House Approvals (January)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (February)/ Foreign Direct Investment (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be a Special European Council meeting in Brussels.  This emergency summit has been called to discuss next steps for Ukraine and Europe’s security.  As European Council President Antonio Costa said, “We are living a defining moment for Ukraine and European security.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank rate decision is announced, and a press conference is to be held.

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a  pre-recorded video message at the Women's Forum event "Equality – Really?! (Gerechtigkeit – Echt jetzt?!)" organized by Oesterreichische Nationalbank in Vienna, Austria.

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Romania Retail Sales (January)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (February)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Deposit Facility Rate/ Marginal Lending Rate/

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (February)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (February)/ New Car Registrations (February)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (February)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (February)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/28)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ghana celebrates Independence Day, when the country gained independence from Great Britain in 1957.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account Q4

Friday, March 7, 2025

Global

·       The first meeting of the BRICS Information & Communications Technologies Working Group under the chairmanship of Brazil (who is chairing the BRICS in 2025) will be held in Sao Paulo, Brazil. They are expected to discuss connectivity issues, space and environmental sustainability, and the digital ecosystem.   Also, the 3rd meeting of the BRICS Agriculture Working Group is being held in Sao Paulo.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech on the Economic Outlook at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a discussion entitled “Monetary Policy Transmission Post-COVID” at The University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech entitled” The Rebalancing of Labor Markets Across the World” at the Bank of Portugal’s Conference on Monetary Policy Transmission and the Labor Market, Lisbon, Portugal.  She gives a second speech later in the day at the Conference.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in panel discussion of the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum Report, “Monetary Policy Transmission Post-Covid" organized by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (February)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Brazil Bank Lending (January)/ Car Production (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (February)/ Auto Exports (February)/ Auto Production (February)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (February)/ Employment Change (February)/ Full & Part Time Employment Change (February)/ Participation Rate (February)/ Average Hourly Wages (February)/ Capacity Utilization Q4

·       USA Unemployment Rate (February)/ Average Hourly Earnings (February)/ Participation Rate (February)/ Government & Manufacturing Payrolls (February)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (February)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (March/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (January)/ Used Car Prices (February)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (February)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (January)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (February)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan and the U.K.'s economy ministers are scheduled to meet in Tokyo for what's been dubbed a first-of-its-kind "two-plus-two" dialogue -- typically a regular meeting of foreign and trade ministers. The pair are likely to commit to strengthening economic ties in the wake of growing uncertainty over Washington's trade policies.

·       Vietnam places temporary anti-dumping levies against Chinese steel products.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (January)

·       Philippines Industrial Production (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January & February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/28)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be a meeting of EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) in Brussels.  The agenda items include a policy debate on “insolvency, the rule of law as a pillar of democracy, and the fight against impunity, and fundamental rights including on the application of the EU Charter on Fundamental Rights.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the welcome address at the ECB International Women's Day 2025 conference "Closing the Financial Literacy Gap" in Frankfurt, Germany.  Later, she participates in a conversation with Claudia Buch, Klaas Knot, Annamaria Lusardi, Joachim Nagel, and Fabio Panetta at ECB International Women's Day 2025 conference "Closing the Financial Literacy Gap" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann will give a keynote lecture at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Research Conference entitled “holding anchor in turbulent waters”

·       Germany Factory Orders (January)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (February)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (February)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Spain Industrial Production (January)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (January)

·       Euro Area Employment Change Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Greece GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Ireland Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ GNP Q4/ Industrial Production (January)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Nigeria Balance of Trade (October)/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Balance of Trade (December)

Saturday, March 8, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil celebrates the last day of the Rio Carnival.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Elections are held in Western Australia for local legislative assembly and legislative council seats.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada’s Liberal Party selects a new leader.

·       Honduras holds primary elections.

·       Daylight Savings Time begins in the US.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Big Moves Toward Ukrainian Peace Talks, The EU Seeks to Head Off A Trade War with the US, Germany Holds What Could Be Historic Elections, The Israeli-Hezbollah Cease-Fire Is Set to Expire, and Markets Look to the Release FOMC Minutes

February 16 - 23, 2025

It will be a big week geopolitically - potentially historic in several ways.  First, there is rapid movement toward establishing a framework to begin peace negotiations with Russia over its war on Ukraine.  President Trump is dispatching US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Walz, and Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff to Saudi Arabia Monday to meet with Russian counterparts.  The meeting aims to begin setting up the parameters for a possible meeting between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia in the coming weeks to start negotiating a Ukrainian peace deal. 

As Rubio/Walz/Witkoff meet in Riyadh with the Russians, Trump’s Special Envoy to Russia and Ukraine, retired US Army General Keith Kellogg, will meet with EU President Ursula von der Leyen and then NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on the peace effort.   

As all this is taking place, French President Emmanual Macron will be convening an “emergency” meeting of EU leaders (leaders of Germany, Britain, Italy, Poland, Sapin, the Netherlands, and Denmark, as well as the NATO Secretary-General and the Presidents of the European Council and European Commission) to discuss what President Trump is doing and what they should be doing.  UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said this “is a once-in-a-generation moment for our national security.” All this being said, the two massive questions on the table are:  What does Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky think about what Trump is saying and doing?  And what exactly is President Trump’s vision for a peace deal, and does it include Ukraine giving up the land Russia has seized?   All in all, it appears Zelensky and Ukrainian concerns are being somewhat left to the side.  Also, coordination between the US and NATO partners lags behind Trump’s lightning-speed efforts. 

Meanwhile, in Washington, EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is flying over to meet with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to urgently discuss how to avoid a looming US-EU trade war, which will be launched by President Trump’s promised reciprocal tariffs.  Sefcovic is not scheduled at this point to meet with President Trump directly, but rumors abound that this might actually happen.  Markets need to watch this trip closely.

Also happening in Europe this week, German voters head to the polls on Sunday to elect a new government.  Christian Democrat Party Leader Fredrik Merz is on track to see his party win in the polls along with their Bavarian partners, the Christian Social Union (currently at 29.2%).  The question is: Which other parties will they form a coalition with to avoid at all costs working with the ultra-far-right AfD Party, which is now currently in second place in the polls (21.3%)?  Most Germans – indeed, most of Europe – are shocked and dismayed to see the AfD – which has repeatedly been shown to have a significant number of members who are Nazi sympathizers gain such an uptick in popularity.  And that makes this election potentially historic as the  Merz will likely have to go in with the Green Party and the left-of-center Social Democrats (SPD) led by current Chancellor Olaf Scholz. 

Turning to the Middle East, Monday marks the grim milestone of the 500th day since the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, which killed more than 2,500 civilians and resulted in the taking of 251 hostages.  While the Gaza cease-fire remains incredibly fragile, with sporadic attacks taking place, hope remains that the rest of the hostages will be released in the coming weeks.   Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah is technically set to expire.  However, most observers expect it to be extended.  Israel is asking for a ten-day extension (until February 28) before they pull back the last of their troops from Southern Lebanon.  Hezbollah is not likely to want to return to full-scale fighting, having been severely mauled by Israeli forces and having a large portion of its military leadership killed. 

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, markets are keenly awaiting the release of the FMOC’s minutes on Wednesday to get a clearer sense of just how worried the Federal Reserve is about a resurgence of inflation and if there is any chance for further rate cuts this year. 

In Asia, Japan releases Q4 GDP estimates, January CPI figures, and trade and machinery order data.  Australia’s Reserve Bank meets on interest rates on Tuesday.

In Europe, the UK releases labor figures on Tuesday, inflation data on Wednesday, and consumer confidence on Friday.  Germany releases the ZEW Survey on Tuesday, and we will see the Eurozone consumer confidence report on Thursday. 

Below is what else we are watching closely in the coming week:

Sunday, February 16, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

·       Canadian Trade Minister Mary Ng leads a delegation of 220 representatives from 140 Canadian organizations on a trade mission to Australia as part of the Australia-Canada Economic Leadership Forum in Sydney.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea has a national holiday celebrating the birth of former leader Kim Jon-il who died in 2011.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, his conservative challenger Friedrich Merz plus Alice Weidel of the AfD, and Robert Habeck from the Greens take part in a four-way TV debate on German channel RTL ahead of next week’s federal election

·       Today is the first anniversary of Alexei Navalny’s murder in Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The 8th Indian Ocean Conference takes place in Oman.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union Heads of State and Government Summit finishes.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 17, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security focused on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Michael Walz, and President Trump’s Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff will travel to Saudi Arabia for meetings with Russian envoys to lay the groundwork for negotiations seeking to end the war in Ukraine.

·       EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will travel to Washington for meetings with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and White House National Economic Director Kevin Hassett in an effort to ward off possible trade tariffs on the EU.

·       Today is President’s Day in the US, a national holiday.  Financial markets and banks are closed.  The US House of Representatives is out of session this week in honor of President’s Day.  The US Senate is in session this week.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give brief remarks on the economy and bank regulation at the American Bankers Association (ABA) Conference for Community Bankers, Phoenix, Arizona.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the UNSW Macroeconomic Workshop, Sydney, Australia.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook before the Global Interdependence Center Central Banking Series Conference with the University of the Bahamas.

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Housing Starts (January)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (December)

·       Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ ISE Economic Activity (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping will chair a Tech Symposium with leading Chinese tech CEOs in Beijing in an effort to spur further growth in the sector.

·       Malaysia will host the China Conference: Southeast Asia 2025 in Kuala Lumpur. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will speak.

·       Sri Lanka's three-month-old government will present its first national budget as the country faces pressure from the International Monetary Fund to reach a primary fiscal surplus of 2.3 % of GDP and a tax-to-GDP ratio of 14% by next year. The IMF's conditions are part of a $3 billion bailout to help the country recover from its 2022 economic meltdown.

·       Vietnam’s Parliament is scheduled to vote on a series of major civil service reforms.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (January)/ Visitor Arrivals (December)

·       Japan GDP Growth Annualized Prel Q4/ GDP Price Index Q4/ Capacity Utilization (December)/ Industrial Production Final (December)/ Tertiary Industry Index (December)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Full Year GDP Growth 2024

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q4

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (December)

·       China Vehicle Sales (January)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (December)/ Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Services PMI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European heads of state gather in Paris for an emergency meeting to discuss and potentially agree on a common proposal to resolve the Ukraine War. The meeting is being convened in response to President Trump’s fast-moving effort to meet with Russian President Putin to discuss Trump’s proposal to end the war.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with General Keith Kellogg (ret.), the US Special Presidential Envoy for Ukraine and Russia in Brussels.  Kellogg will also meet with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in Brussels to discuss President Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine.

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels to discuss the state of convergence in Bulgaria, the macroeconomic outlook for the Euro area, and the work program for the group up to July 2025.  European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will participate.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hosts Serbia's Foreign Minister Marko Duric for meetings in Moscow.

·       Romania’s far-right opposition parties are expected to submit a no-confidence vote for Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu’s government.

·       There will be an informal meeting of the EU General Affairs Council in Brussels through February 18.

·       The US Army Europe and Africa will hold its biennial exercise in the Arctic called Arctic Forge 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (January)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (December)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (December)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (December)/ European Commission Winter Forecasts/ ECOFIN Meeting

·       Germany Bundesbank Nagel Speech

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (December)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (January)

·       Turkey Auto Production (January)/ Auto Sales (January)/ Budget Balance (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 500th day anniversary of Hamas’ attack on Israel and the taking of hostages.

· Today is February 17th, Revolution Day, a national holiday celebrating when the people of Libya threw off the rule of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi’s 40 years of rule.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q4/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January)

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Tuesday, February 18, 2025

Global

·       The World Trade Organization begins a two-day council meeting in Geneva.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Practicing multilateralism, reforming and improving global governance.  China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi will chair the meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Lula da Silva hosts Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in Sao Paulo.

·       Bermuda holds elections for its House of Assembly.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Michael Barr will give a speech on Artificial Intelligence and Financial Stability at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks and participates in a moderated discussion before the 2025 Conference for Community Bankers hosted by the American Bankers Association.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI Median (January)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (January)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (February)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (February)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (December)/ Foreign Bond Investment (December)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (December)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, begins a three-day visit to Japan to review the country’s nuclear power plants.

·       South Korea's constitutional court continues hearings this week on whether President Yoon Suk Yeol should be removed from office over his short-lived martial law order in December. That ruling is expected early next month. On Thursday, a Seoul district court will begin Yoon's criminal trial on insurrection charges.

·       Singapore’s Prime Minister and Finance Minister, Lawrence Wong, delivers the government's 2025 budget in a critical election year. As a key step in preparing for the city-state's general election due by November, observers are expecting new policies and generous support measures aimed at tackling the most pressing voter concerns, such as rising living costs.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (January)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (February/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Th EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss EU competitiveness and improving the business environment, the situation in Ukraine, the EU budget for 2026, and the economic governance framework.

·       France’s upper House of Parliament is expected to debate and vote on the highly controversial 2025 Social Security budget.

·       Today is the inauguration of President Zoran Milanovic in Croatia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has a “fireside chat” in Brussels with Jeromin Zettelmeyer, director of Belgian think-tank Bruegel, on “preserving and enhancing open financial markets.”

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone will participate in a livestreamed MNI Connect video conference “The ECB's Balance Sheet Policies and Implications in the Current Economic Context”.

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (January)/ Claimant Count Change (January/Labour Productivity Final Q3

·       Switzerland Industrial Production Q4

·       France Inflation Rate Final (January)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (February)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (February)/ ZEW Current Conditions (February)

·       Belarus GDP (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement expires unless extended. The initial deal, brokered by the US and France, began in November and halted nearly 14 months of conflict by requiring both sides to withdraw from southern Lebanon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (December)/ Total Credit (December)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Gambia Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Unemployment Rate Q4/ Unemployed Persons Q4/ Annual Budget Speech

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (December)

Wednesday, February 19, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions. This will be followed by consultations. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund will host the third FII Priority Summit in Miami Beach, United States, through Feb. 21, and U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to attend and speak.

·       The Caricom Meeting of the Conference of Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community meet in Barbados.

·       The US Senate’s Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Department of Labor nominee Lori Chavez-DeRemer.

·       The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) begins in Washington, D.C. and runs through Saturday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Household Balance Sheets” at the Martin H. Crego Lecture in Economics, Vassar College, Poughkeepsie, New York.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Open Market Committee Minutes are released.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (February/14)/ Housing Starts (January)/ Redbook (February/15)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 22.5 to 30 yrs/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/14

·       Brazil Business Confidence (February)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam’s Parliament vote on proposed rail line to China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board member Jajimi Takata gives a speech to local business leaders in Miyagi, Japan.

·       New Zealand PPI Input & Output Q4/ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Machinery Orders (December)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (January)/ RBA Chart Pack/ Wage Price Index Q4

·       China House Price Index (January)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (January)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (February)

·       India M3 Money Supply (February/07)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission will present its “vision” for agriculture.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will give an annual speech at Russia's State Duma on Russia's foreign policy priorities. 

·       The French Parliament will examine a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Francois Bayrou tabled by the center-left Socialist Party for his recent controversial remarks on immigration. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Payments Victoria Cleland speaks on a panel at the Currency Research Central Bank Payments summit in Paris on “what can be the next game changer.”

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI Output & Input (January)/ Retail Price Index (January)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ Current Account (December)

·       Italy Current Account (December)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (December)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (January)/ Current Account (December)

·       Russia PPI (January)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The leaders of five Arab countries hold a summit on Donald Trump's Gaza plan in Cairo.  The leaders of Egypt, Qatar, the UAE, and Jordan will attend.  Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas is rumored to be attending, too.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman Inflation Rate (January)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana presents the annual national budget to parliament.

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

Thursday, February 20, 2025

Global

·       G20 Foreign Ministers will gather in Johannesburg, South Africa, to meet. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to skip the meeting.  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Russia's Sergei Lavrov will be there.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg will visit Kyiv, Ukraine, for meetings regarding the Russia-Ukraine war and President Trump’s efforts to start peace talks.

·       The US Senate’s Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Linda McMahon to be Secretary of Education.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives a speech on supervision and regulation at the Georgetown University Law Center in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives a speech entitled “Navigating Inflation Waves While Riding on the Phillips Curve” at the 2025 Whittington Lecture, McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University, Washington, D.C.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks and participates in a moderated conversation on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Economic Club of New York.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Chicagoland Chamber Mid-Market Chicago event.

·       Mexico Retail Sales (December)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (January)/ PPI (January)/ Raw Materials Prices (January)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (February/15)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (February)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (February)/ CB Leading Index (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/14)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February/14)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/20)/Fed Balance Sheet (February/19)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Colombia Cement Production (December)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Halifax International Security Forum starts a two-day conference in Taipei. It is the first time the Forum has been held in Taiwan, and the conference's theme is to "highlight Taiwan's thriving democracy for global leaders," with a series of on- and off-the-record discussions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (February)/ PPI (January)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (February/15)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/15)

·       Australia Unemployment Rate (January)/ Participation Rate (January)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (February)

·       Indonesia Current Account Q4/ M2 Money Supply (January)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (January)/ Current Account Q4

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ukraine Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga is due to address the IISS-Asia strategic think tank in Singapore (the Shangri La Conference).

· Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban gives the annual State of the Nation speech.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Sasha Mills, executive director of financial market infrastructure at the Bank of England, speaks at the UK T+1 Accelerated Settlement Market event hosted by KPMG in London.

·       Germany PPI (January)/ Bundesbank Nagel Speech

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (January)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/14)/ Central Government Debt (January)

·       Greece Current Account (December)

·       Italy Construction Output (December)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (January)/ Employment Growth (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (December)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (February)

·       Great Britain CBI Industrial Trends Orders (February)/ Gfk Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Slovakia Current Account (December)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (January)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (January)/ Total Credit Growth (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The French Army will officially hand over control of their military base in Abidjan, Ivory Coast – one of France’s last outposts in Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (December)

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, February 21, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on Central Bank Communication at the Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California.

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final Q4/ Economic Activity (December)

·       Canada Retail Sales (December)/ Retail Sales Final (December)/ BoC Gov Macklem Speech

·       USA S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)/ Existing Home Sales (January)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (February)/Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (February/21)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (January)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (January)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (February)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Australia S&P Global Australia Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (February)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Jibun Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (January)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/14)

·       China FDI (YTD) (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a keynote speech at the FIW-Research Conference on International Economics in Vienna, Austria.

·       Great Britain Retail Sales (January)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (January)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (January)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

·       France Business Confidence (February)/ Business Climate Indicator (February)/ HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

·       Italy Inflation Rate Final (January)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (January)

·       Serbia PPI (January)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q4

Saturday, February 22, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in St. Lucia, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan's Defense Minister Gen Nakatani visits the Philippines for talks with his Filipino counterpart, Gilbert Teodoro, including about an intelligence-sharing agreement. The move follows Tokyo's supply of air defense radar equipment to Manila in 2023, and forms part of an effort to strengthen defense collaboration with like-minded countries around China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the Day of Fraternity and Cohesion Day in Algeria, a national holiday celebrating the revolution in 2019, throwing off the autocratic reign of power of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 23, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Guyana Republic Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Japanese Emperor Naruhito’s 65th birthday.

·       Today is National Day in Brunei, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany holds parliamentary elections that will determine the new leadership of the country.  Christian Social Union leader Fredrik Mertz is seen as the likely next Chancellor.  But it is unclear what sort of coalition he will after form to avoid the surging ultra-rightwing AfD Party.

·       Russia celebrates Defender of the Fatherland Day, otherwise known in Russia as Men’s Day, aimed at honoring men who serve in the armed forces.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Hezbollah's former Secretary General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah will be buried in Lebanon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Tariffs On Canada, Japan, and China Go Live, Trump Meets With Netanyahu To Discuss Gaza and Iran And Then With Japan’s Ishida On China and US-Japan Trade, And EU Leaders Gather To Discuss Defense and Security Policy

President Trump promised he would bring tariffs on the US’s largest trading partners, Mexico, Canada, and China if they did not do more to curb illegal immigration and the flow of Fentanyl in the US, and he made good on his threat on Saturday. 

Many market participants we spoke to were hopeful a deal would be worked out in time and seemed surprised Trump moved on slapping 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10 percent tariffs on China.  Canada immediately responded with retaliatory measures, putting 25 percent tariffs on US exports to Canada, including beer, food products, and appliances.  Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is readying counter-tariffs, and China said it would sue the US at the World Trade Organization (WTO).

The big question now is: How long will this last?  The answer is anyone’s guess because it is not clear exactly how Trump will be satisfied by any of the three countries on illegal immigration and drug trafficking—what is the metric of success?  Hopefully, that will become clearer in the coming days, and a deal can be hammered out.

Looking ahead, Trump will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week at the White House to discuss the situation in Gaza, possible next steps, and overall policy toward Iran.  It is Trump’s first formal meeting with a foreign leader since returning to office. 

Later in the week, Trump will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the White House.  Japan has been both upset and nervous with Washington of late as former President Biden blocked Nippon Steel’s bid to buy US Steel on spurious national security grounds (Nippon Steel is suing the US government over the ruling, and the court case begins this week).  And Japan has been nervous about where they stand with President Trump vis a vi China as Trump officials have been talking about a “Grand Bargain” with China.   Ishiba is likely to raise the Nippon Steel issue with Trump in the hope that Trump could perhaps broker a deal that appeases the US steel union and allows Nippon to move forward with the acquisition.  He will also talk to Trump about Japan potentially helping to financially support the building of a $44 billion gas pipeline in Alaska and become a major gas purchaser.

In Europe this week, we are watching as EU leaders gather for a meeting to discuss EU defense and security needs.  UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is invited to attend, as is NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.  While no major policy announcements are expected to come from the meeting, it does show the EU is moving more aggressively to develop stronger defense and security capabilities inside the EU as well as bolster NATO in the face of growing Russian aggression.

Turning to the global economic reporting radar screen this week, in the US we are watching the jobs report out on Friday as well as ISM indices out on Monday and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday. 

Turning to Europe, the Bank of England meets on rates where the market is expecting another rate cut.  Other major reports out this week is the Eurozone CPI German industrial production, trade balance, and factory orders, and France’s industrial production and trade balance.

Finally, moving over to Asia, China – coming off the Lunar New Year holiday – releases the Caixin Manufacturing PMIs on Monday and Services PMIs on Wednesday.  Japan releases the December labor cash earnings figures and the Bank of Japan summary of opinions from their January meeting.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, February 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is traveling to Panama, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic.  The primary focus of this trip is to discuss illegal immigration, transnational criminal organizations, and drug trafficking.  But he is also going to focus on China’s growing role in the Hemisphere – particularly in Panama as President Trump has threatened to take back the Canal due to Panama allowing the Chinese company Hutcheson Whampoa to operate the Canal as well as ports at either end of the Canal.

·       Today is Groundhog Day – Is Spring around the corner or will we have six more weeks of winter?

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 3, 2025

Global

·       At the UN Security Conference, there will be a press briefing by Ambassador Fu Cong, Permanent Representative of the People's Republic of China and President of the Security Council for February on the agenda for the month.

·       OPEC+ holds a joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting in Vienna.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nippon Steel’s lawsuit against the US Federal Government for blocking their acquisition of U.S. Steel begins.

Economic Reports/Events

·        Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (December)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (January)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices (January)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Loan Officer Survey/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates/ Fed Musalem Speech

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (January)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI Final (January)/ Building Permits (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (January)/ Private House Approvals (December)/ Commodity Prices (January)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (January)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Business Confidence (January)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (January)

·       Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Current Account Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal EU leaders retreat in Brussels. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have be invited to attend.  According to a memo released in advance of the meeting, the leaders will be discussing defense policy.

·       The French Parliament will receive President Emmanuel Macron’s budget proposal.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Competitiveness and Trade Ministers in Warsaw, Poland through February 4.

·       The new Special Committee on the European Democracy Shield will hold its constitutive meeting to elect a chair and vice-chair and launch the committee’s activities. It will deal with the so-called “Democracy Shield” initiative, included in the Commission’s 2024-2029 political guidelines, and other initiatives designed to counter malicious interference in EU democratic processes 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ NEVI Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (December)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (December)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ New Car Sales (January)

·       Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (January)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI Flash (January)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Qatar Balance of Trade (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (January)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (January)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Tuesday, February 4, 2025

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu travels to Washington, D.C. to meet with President Trump, making him the first foreign leader to meet with Trump since being sworn into office.  The two leaders are expected to discuss the future of the hostage-release cease-fire deal in Gaza and how to coordinate policy on dealing with Iran going forward.

·       The US Senate Finance Committee will vote on the nomination of Robert Kennedy, Jr. to be Secretary of Health and Human Services.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Federal Reverse Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy to the Economics Department Special Lecture, Lafayette College, Easton, Pennsylvania.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (January)/ BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ PPI (December)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       USA Redbook (February/01)/ JOLTs Job Openings (December)/ Factory Orders (December)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (February)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Fed Daly Speech/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/31)/ Fed Jefferson Speech/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (January)

·       Colombia Exports (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China is expected to reveal data on domestic travel and spending over the Lunar New Year holidays as early as Tuesday, offering a barometer of consumer demand at a critical moment for the country's sluggish economy.

·       Today is National Day in Sri Lanka, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        New Zealand Building Permits (December)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (February/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·        European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery will participate on a panel on Women in Finance during St. Brigid Day celebrations at the Embassy of Ireland in London, UK.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Romania PPI (December)

·       France Budget Balance (December)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (January)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (December)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline to begin negotiations on “Phase 2” of the Israeli-Hamas ceasefire agreement to release hostages.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (January)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Liberation Day in Angola, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (January)/ M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)

Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Brief Economic Update and Bank Regulation” at the 2025 Kansas Bankers Association Harold A. Stones Government Relations Conference.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Do Non-Inflationary Economic Expansions Promote Shared Prosperity?” at Swarthmore College, Swarthmore, Pennsylvania.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks on economic perspectives before hybrid 31st Annual Automotive Insights Symposium.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in fireside chat before the Conference Board"2025: A Year in Preview" Conference

·       Brazil Industrial Production (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (November)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/31)/ ADP Employment Change (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)/ ISM Services Business Activity/ Employment/ New Orders. Prices/ PMI (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/31/ Total Vehicle Sales (January)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (January)

·       Colombia PPI (January)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra travels to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The purpose of the meeting is to discuss growing online fraud run by Chinese criminal syndicates aimed at Thai citizens as well as to seek China’s help in curbing negative rumors about Thailand’s safety for Chinese tourists. 

·       India's national capital territory goes to polls with a tense three-way contest expected between Delhi's ruling Aam Aadmi Party, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party and the country's main opposition Indian National Congress. More than 15.5 million people are registered to vote in the election for 70 constituencies of the Delhi assembly.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chinese financial markets reopen after the Lunar New Year holiday. 

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       New Zealand Unemployment Rate Q4/ Labour Costs Index Q4/ Participation Rate Q4

·       Australia S&P Global Australia Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (January)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (December)/ Overtime Pay (December)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Singapore Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (January)

·       China Caixin Composite PMI (January)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Full Year GDP Growth 2025

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (January)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January/24)

·       Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Services PMI (January)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Liberation Day in San Marino.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat and a Q&A at an event organized by Peterson Institute for International Economics "The euro area in 2025" in Washington DC,

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Business Confidence (January)/ Corporate Profits (November)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Real Wage Growth (November)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       France Industrial Production (December)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ Bundesbank Balz Speech

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ PPI (December)/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (January)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (January)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (January)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Unity Day in Burundi, celebrating ethnic unity between Tutsis and Hutus.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (January)

Thursday, February 6, 2025

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the future of payments at the Navigating the Future of Payments with Christopher Waller, Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President May Daly speaks on economic trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping the region and beyond before the Rotary Club of Oakland

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Great Britain BoE Interest Rate Decision/ Monetary Policy Report/ MPC Meeting Minutes/ MPC Vote Cut/ MPC Vote Hike/ MPC Vote Unchanged

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (January)/ Initial Jobless Claims (February/01)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q4/ Unit Labour Costs Q4/ Continuing Jobless Claims (January/25)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (February/01)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/31)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/06)/ Fed Waller Speech/ Fed Daly Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/05)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (January)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Board Member Naoki Tamura gives a speech to local leaders in Nagano, Japan.

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       South Korea Current Account (December)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (February/01)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/01)/ BOJ Tamura Speech/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (January)/ Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Deutsche Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel speaks at the inaugural BIS Chapultepec Conference in Mexico.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Germany Factory Orders (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (January)/ Bundesbank Nagel Speech/ Bundesbank Balz Speech/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Romania Retail Sales (December)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (January)

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (January)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (January)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (January)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (January)/ BoE Bailey Speech

·       Euro Area Retail Sales (December)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/31)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Israel Business Confidence (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Jordan PPI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa delivers the State of the Nation Address before the South African parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (January)

Friday, February 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Turks and Caicos Islands hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Brief Economic Update and Bank Regulation” at the 2025 Wisconsin Bankers Association Bank Executives Conference.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech entitled “Entrepreneurship and Aggregate Productivity” at the 2025 Miami Economic Forum, Miami, Florida.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (January)

·       Brazil Car Production (January)/ New Car Registrations (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (January)/ Employment Change (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Average Hourly Wages (January)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (January)/ Average Hourly Earnings (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Average Weekly Hours (January)/ Government Payrolls (January)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (January)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (January)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (January)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations (February)/ Michigan Current Conditions (February)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (February)/ Wholesale Inventories (December)/ Fed Kugler Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (December)/ Used Car Prices (January)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (January)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (December)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (January)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba travels to Washington to meet with President Trump.  The two leaders are expected to discuss mutual security issues in the Indo-Pacific including dealing with China.  Ishiba is also expected to make the case to Trump on behalf of Nippon Steel in their blocked bid for U.S. Steel.  Ishiba is also considering offering support for a $44 billion gas pipeline in Alaska as well as an offer to buy large quantities of the gas.  Ishiba will also be seeking Trump's cooperation in resolving a long-running dispute with North Korea over its abduction of Japanese citizens in the '70s and '80s.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Japan Household Spending (December)/ Coincident Index (December)/ Leading Economic Index (December)

·       Philippines Industrial Production (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (December)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/31)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at a conference "VI Encuentro Económico-Asegurador" organised by Mutualidad de Abogados de España in Madrid, Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (January)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (January)/ BoE Pill Speech

·       Turkey Inflation Report/ Treasury Cash Balance (January)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Current Account (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q4

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (December)/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Spain Industrial Production (December)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech

·       Greece Balance of Trade (December)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (December)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Full Year GDP Growth 2024

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Qatar Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ SACCI Business Confidence (January)/ SACCI Business Confidence (December)

Saturday, February 8, 2025

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

·        

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea celebrates Military Foundation Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Switzerland will hold a referendum on an environmental initiative called “For a responsible economy within our planet’s limits.”   It would aim to limit the environmental impact of Swiss consumption within ten years by aligning it with planetary boundaries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 9, 2025

Global

·         Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador holds presidential elections and parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Kosovo holds parliamentary elections.

·       Lichtenstein holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Syria’s Simmering Civil War Explodes Again, France’s Government on Brink of Crisis, OPIC+ Meets to Possibly Approve Production Increases, Key International Chairs Change Hands, And A Big Week of Economic Data Releases

December 1 - 8, 2024

We are four weeks away from 2025, but 2024 is going out with a bang. In Syria, where the civil war had been at a relatively low boil this past year, all hell broke out when rebels (mostly aligned with radical Islamist groups) launched a massive surprise attack on the city of Aleppo, the most populous governate and city in Syria. They captured it with relative ease and continued to press their attacks south toward the city of Hama, hammering Syrian Army forces (who are supported by the Russian Air Force and elements of the Russian Army).

The reignited conflict brings a new element of uncertainty and risk to the Middle East and is seen as a significant blow to Russia and Iran, both of whom have been propping up and helping to defend the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (who was in Moscow when the offensive began and had to rush back to Damascus to deal with it).

Meanwhile, in France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen gave French Prime Minister Michel Barnier until Monday to come up with more concessions (Barnier had already acceded to earlier Le Pen demands to drop planned tax increases) in the hotly debated 2025 budget or face a no-confidence vote in parliament which would throw the government into crisis. Markets have been selling off in the face of what is likely to be a wild week politically in Paris.

Also, in Europe this week, NATO member foreign ministers will meet in Brussels for an important discussion on how to further aid Ukraine. The meeting comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested in a media interview this past week that an offer of NATO membership for territory currently under Ukraine’s control could end “the hot stage of the war.”  

Also this week, new leadership comes (or is about to come) to three important international seats:

• The US will take the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of December.

• South Africa officially takes the presidency of the G20 from Brazil for 2025.

• Poland begins laying the groundwork for its upcoming role as President of the European Union on January 1 and will continue until June 2025.

We would also note that OPEC+ meets this week to discuss possibly increasing production output—a highly contentious issue among the oil-producing states. The meeting was originally scheduled for December 1, but behind-the-scenes disagreements forced it to be postponed until December 5.

Looking at the economic radar screen this week, markets are watching the US jobs report released this Friday. Wall Street consensus estimates are roughly in the 200,000-plus range. Also, this week, the ISM Indices – manufacturing and services, on Monday and Wednesday, respectively.  And the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book are out on Friday.

In Europe, Germany—which continues to struggle economically—will release important factory order data, industrial production figures, and its trade balance. These releases come as Volkswagen workers begin to go on strike over upcoming layoffs and plant closures. 

In Asia, Japan releases both wage and consumption activity reports on Friday, while China releases its November PMIs and the Caixin indices.  

To top it all off, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give much-watched speeches on their views of the global economy on Wednesday. 

Below are all the other major geopolitical and market events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, December 1, 2024

Global

·       South Africa takes the presidency of the G20 Presidency.  South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will bring the media on Monday, December 2, on the South African agenda for the year.

·       The U.S. assumes the Chair of the UN Security Council for the month of December.

·       COP16 of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and goes through December 13.

·       Today is the first day of Advent.

·       Today is the first day of the meteorological winter int the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden departs for a trip to Angola.  The purpose of the meeting is to improve US-African relations but also highlight a U.S. backed railway project.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan’s President Willam Lai continues a tour of the Marshall Islands, Palau, and Tuvalu – all of whom have diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

·       Today is Kazakhstan’s First President’s Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Australia Commodity Prices (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds parliamentary elections.

·       Liechtenstein holds a referendum regarding a package of measures proposed by the Liechtenstein Employee Pension Foundation (SPL), directed at a state pension fund. 

·       Ursala von der Leyen formally begins her second term as European Commission President.

·       Today is Portugal Independence Day, a national holiday.

·       Today is Romania Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders will meet in Kuwait to discuss regional issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Freedom and Democracy Day in Chad, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 2, 2024

Global

·        The UN Security Council meets on the situation of children in Haiti.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly meets Baltic counterparts in Riga, Latvia.

·       Germany’s former Chancellor Angela Merkel presents her memoir 'Freedom' in a joint appearance with former President Barack Obama in Washington, D.C.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will participate in a conversation organized by the Queens Chamber of Commerce.

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ Business Confidence (November)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (October)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (November)/Fed Balance Sheet (November/27)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       East Timor's Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao makes an official visit to Malaysia for talks with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. The trip comes as the small country of about 1.3 million people prepares to join the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as its 11th member state. Malaysia chairs the bloc next year.

·       Nepali Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli visits China, casting off a tradition in which the Himalayan nation's leaders make India their first foreign trip after taking office. Oli is expected to request a waiver on a $216 million Chinese loan used to build the country's third international airport. The airport has not drawn any international flights since its opening last year.

·       The trial begins of Malaysian ex-prime minister Najib Razak on charges of taking bribes, money laundering linked to 1MDB scandal.

·       Today is Saba Day in Saba, celebrating the independence of the small island in the Netherlands Antilles.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (October)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (November)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (November)/ Building Permits (October)/ Company Gross Profits Q3/ Retail Sales (October)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (November)/ Business Inventories Q3/ Private House Approvals (October)/ RBA Jacobs Speech/ Commodity Prices (November)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q3/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (November)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Business Confidence (November)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (November)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Wholesale Prices (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces a deadline set by French opposition leader Marine Le Pen to offer new, farther reaching budget concessions or face a no-confidence vote which could topple the government.

·       German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visits China through December. On Sunday, before departing for Beijing, Baerbock strongly criticized China for supporting Russia in its war on Ukraine.

·       German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius visits Norway for talks with Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram.

·       Romania’s top court is expected to rule on whether to annul the first round of presidential elections (the second round is scheduled for December 8).   The challenge to the results were brought after allegations of external interference in the elections by Russia.

·       Germany’s IG Metall union calls for possible warning strikes in Volkswagen factories across the country.

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will give his annual foreign policy speech at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet in the City of London.  Earlier in the day, Starmer hosts Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis for bilateral talks.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Employment and Social Policy) meets in Brussels through December 3.  Ministers will discuss EU demographic challenges, labor and skills shortages in the EU, and the traineeships directive.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an EIB Group Climate and Environment Advisory Council in Luxembourg.

·       Bank of England Director of Financial Stability Strategy and Risk Lee Foulger gives a speech at  the Bloomberg UK Policy Series in London.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Average Weekly Earnings Q3

·       Netherlands Retail Sales (October)/ NEVI Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (November)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (November)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (September)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (October)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ New Car Sales (November)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will give testimony at his ongoing corruption trial.  He is the first sitting Israeli prime minister to testify in a public corruption trial.

·       Today is UAE National Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The SenHabitat 2024 begins in Dakar, Senegal bringing together investors and government officials focused on real estate, housing, and construction

·       Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (November)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (November)

Tuesday, December 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives a speech on the Labor Market and Monetary Policy at the Detroit Economic Club in Detroit, Michigan.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to give closing remarks before hybrid Midwest Agriculture Conference entitled "The Changing Landscape for Agricultural Inputs."

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (October)/ Gross Fixed Investment (September)

·       USA Redbook (November)/30/ JOLTs Job Openings (October)/ JOLTs Job Quits (October)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (December)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/29)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (November)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       US Space Force opens a unit at Yokota Air Base in Japan.

·       The 20th Tokyo-Beijing Forum takes place in Tokyo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Import Prices Q3/ Export Prices Q3/ Terms of Trade Q3/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (December/03)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (November)

·       Australia Current Account Q3/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q3

·       Hong Kong: The British Chamber of Commerce in China will release its annual business sentiment survey, followed by the German chamber's confidence survey. 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO holds a two-day foreign ministers meeting in Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East.  NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will also receive His Majesty King Abdullah II ibn Al Hussein of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Health) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will adopt a recommendation on smoke- and aerosol-free environments, focusing on key outdoor areas like playgrounds and restaurant terraces, as well as emerging tobacco and related products such as e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products and heated herbal products.  The Council will also discuss the state of play of the revision of pharmaceutical legislation in the EU, focusing on regulatory incentives. The package aims to improve security of supply of medicines and prevent shortages.

·       The Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani ,begins a two-day state visit, accompanied by his first wife, Sheikha Jawaher bint Hamad bin Suhaim Al Thani.  King Charles and Queen Camilla will host the visitors at Buckingham Palace, and Starmer will meet the Emir for bilateral talks in Downing Street.

·       FT Global Banking Summit opens in London. Speakers across the two-day event include Barclays chief executive CS Venkatakrishnan and Deutsche Bank chief executive Christian Sewing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded conversation with Daniele Manca at GeoEconomy Talk organized by RCS Academy, the Business School of RCS MediaGroup, in collaboration with Il Corriere della Sera in Milan, Italy.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (November)

·       Romania PPI (October)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (November)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (November)

·       France Budget Balance (October)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q3

·       Spain Unemployment Change (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       Ireland Construction Output Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (November)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (November)

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q3

Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Global

·       The UN General Assembly meets on the situation in Gaza. 

·       The OECD releases its Economic Outlook.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates in a moderated discussion at the New York Times DealBook Summit in New York.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem to speak before the Bloomberg/Global Interdependence Center College of Central Bankers Symposium.

·       Brazil Industrial Production (October)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       USA Fed Beige Book/MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/29)/ ADP Employment Change (November)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)/ ISM Services PMI (November)/ ISM Services Business/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices Activity (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (November/29)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q3/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       Colombia Exports (October)/ PPI (November)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry & Construction & Manufacturing Index (November)/ Judo Bank Services PMI Final (November)/ Judo Bank Composite PMI Final (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q3/ GDP Chain Price Index Q3/ GDP Final Consumption Q3

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (November)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (November)

·       China Caixin Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       India HSBC Services & Composite PMI Final (November)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK City minister and Economic Secretary to the Treasury Tulip Siddiq and Chinese ambassador to the UK Zeguang Zheng speak at the OMFIF China-UK Investor forum in London.

·       The European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee will hear from Christine Lagarde, first in her capacity as President of the European Central Bank and then as Chair of the European Systemic Risk Board. Economic governance, geo-political risks, and the cost of living are all expected to feature prominently in the discussions. The hearings will be followed by another debate with Dominique Laboureix, Chair of the Single Resolution Board 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Financial Times Global Boardroom event in London.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a virtual speech followed by a Q&A session at the 7th conference on behavioral financial regulations and policies organized by Herbert Simon Society in Milan, Italy.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       France HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)/ PPI (October)

·       UK S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Final (November)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (November)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (November)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Investment Forum begins in Rabat, Morocco and runs through Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (November)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (November)/ Consumer Confidence Q4

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (November)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Nigeria Balance of Trade (July)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Balance of Trade (September)

Thursday, December 5, 2024 

Global

·       Ministers from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (Opec+) meet in Vienna, Austria.  The meeting was originally scheduled for December 1 but was moved to today. Ministers are going to consider reviving halted production beginning in January.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak before in-person Charlotte Regional Business Alliance 2024 Economic Outlook event.

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Initial Jobless Claims (November)/30/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (November/29)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/04)

·       Brazil Car Production (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Ivey PMI s.a (November)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Malaysia Motor Show begins in Kula Lumpur.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Toyoaki Nakamura gives a speech in Hiroshima to local business leaders.

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November)/30/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November)/30/ BOJ Nakamura Speech

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (November)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (October)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Transport) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will be asked to approve the Council’s position (‘general approach’) on several legislative files: the directive on driving disqualifications, which forms part of the ‘road safety’ package, the regulation on passenger rights in the context of multimodal journeys and the regulation on enforcement of passenger rights in the EU. The Council will also hold a policy debate on air passenger rights and take note of a progress report on the combined transport directive. 

·       In Lyon, France, the Festival of Lights will be held. Originally aimed at expressing gratitude towards Mary, mother of Jesus, kicks off with hundreds of thousands of spectators expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Executive Director Victoria Cleland gives a speech at the Fintech Connect event in London on ‘The future road map of Bank of England’s real time gross settlement (RTGS) service.’

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives a speech at the IIF Colloquium on European Banking Regulation & Supervision in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Germany Factory Orders (October)/ HCOB Construction PMI (November)

·       Romania Retail Sales (October)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       France Industrial Production (October)/ HCOB Construction PMI (November)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Spain Industrial Production (October)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (November)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (November)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (November)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (November)/ BoE Greene Speech

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (October)

·       Ireland Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GNP Q3

·       Serbia PPI (November)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/29)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Jordan PPI (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account Q3

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Friday, December 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Mercosur Summit begins in Uruguay, bringing leaders from the South American trading bloc together to discuss trade.  Last week, the French parliament dealt a tough blow to a potential EU-Mercosur agreement, siding with French farmers who opposed the deal and voting 484 to 70 against signing a deal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech at the Missouri Bankers Association Executive Management Conference (Virtual)

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to participate in "Emerging Technology and the Economy" conversation hosted by the Hoover Institution.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (November)

·       Mexico Auto Exports & Production (November)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ Full & Part Time Employment Chg (November)/ Average Hourly Wages (November)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (November)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (October)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (November)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (November)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ Non-Farm and Manufacturing and Government Payrolls (November)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/Michigan Current Conditions Prel (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/06)/ Consumer Credit Change (October)/ Used Car Prices (November)/ Total Vehicle Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (October)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (October)/ Household Spending (October)/ Overtime Pay (October)/ Coincident Index Prel (October)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (October)

·       Australia Home Loans (October)/ Investment Lending for Homes (October)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (November)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/29)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia's President Vladimir Putin visits Minsk, Belarus to validate security concept of the Russian-Belarusian Union.

·       The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) begins a two-day ministerial meeting in Malta.  Foreign ministers will meet to review and address the security situation in the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian area, as well as to evaluate the Organization's work in all its fields of activity.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Telecom) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will approve conclusions on the EU Agency for cybersecurity (ENISA) and on the Commission’s White Paper ‘How to master Europe’s digital infrastructure needs?’. They will also hold a policy debate on the digital decade 2030 objectives and targets in light of recent technological changes. Over an informal lunch, ministers will discuss ways to improve EU coordination and enhance the effectiveness of actions within the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). Finally, the incoming Polish presidency will inform the Council on its work program for the first semester 2025.

·       Today is Finland Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Household Consumption (October)

·       Germany Industrial Production (October)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (November)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (November)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (October)/ Budget Balance (November)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Current Account (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Italy Retail Sales (October)

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Employment Change Q3

·       Greece Balance of Trade (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) holds its Manama Dialogue in Bahrain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Ghana General Elections

Saturday, December 7, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The 22nd Doha Forum on Democracy, Development and Free Trade begins and runs through December 8. The theme of this year’s two-day event is “The Innovation Imperative.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ghana holds both presidential and parliamentary elections.  However, the government is facing an unprecedented shutdown in advance of the election unless they pass a provisional budget in advance of the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 8, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds  its presidential election run-off.  

·       Notre-Dame Cathedral official reopens to the public after a catastrophic fire five years ago.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.