The Global Week Ahead

European Leaders Gather to Discuss European Defense and Security Planning, Trump Gathers Oil CEOs,  US-Russian Shuttle Diplomacy Continues, and the US, Japan, and UK Central Banks Meet on Interest Rates

March 16 - 23, 2025

It is going to be another action-packed week ahead geopolitically.  U.S. and Russian diplomats are expected to talk in an effort to reach a deal securing at least a temporary cease-fire in Ukraine.  Russian President Vladimir Putin seemed to indicate some support for the idea but then pushed back, saying there are a number of issues he still wants addressed.  President Trump late Sunday indicated he expected to talk to Putin later this week, but no set time or date has been set yet.  All in all, we believe negotiations are likely to be protracted.  Meanwhile, Russian forces have ramped up their assault on Ukrainian positions and made considerable gains against Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region of Russia.

European leaders will gather in Brussels for a Euro Summit this week to discuss how to advance a European defense and security agenda in the face of growing trade and defense tensions with the U.S.  An EU White Paper on EU Security is being formally released this week while German legislators will further consider a historic €500 billion defense and infrastructure package.   Europe is at a historic inflection point in facing a challenge to ensure its mutual defense and security and collective economic interests in the face of tough trade tariffs being placed on it by President Trump and ongoing trade tensions with China.

Meanwhile, President Trump will be gathering oil CEOs at the White House on Monday to discuss how to encourage more drilling in the US.  But with oil prices shrinking lately, the CEOs will likely be looking for guidance on economic incentives to help them achieve the President’s goals.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the week ahead, it will be a big week for central banks.  The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Central Bank of Brazil each meet to discuss the state of the economy and decide on interest rates.  This is likely to prove particularly challenging for the Fed as President Trump rapidly ramps up his tariff agenda.   The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are likely to hold steady on rates.

Looking at what else is happening in Asia, China will be releasing a number of important economic reports, including retail sales for the first two months of the year.  The data comes as Beijing has just finished the Two-Session meetings focused on economic recalibration.  Japan will be releasing trade data on Wednesday and CPI data on Friday.

In Europe, Germany’s ZEW survey is out on Tuesday.  But the biggest economic event in Germany will be the ongoing parliamentary debate over the proposed €500 billion defense and infrastructure package.  A deal has been reached between political parties, and the final vote is expected this week.  Also this week, the UK releases labor market figures.

Bringing it back to the U.S., markets are looking at January retail sales numbers on Monday and industrial production figures on Tuesday.   And in Canada, CPI figures are out this week, too.

Below is what else around the world we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, March 16, 2025

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will convene a meeting in Geneva of the two Cypriot leaders and the Guarantor Powers of Greece, Türkiye and the United Kingdom for an informal meeting on Cyprus.

·       The UN  Climate and Clean Air Conference 2025 will begin and run through March 21 in Brasilia, Brazil.  This year’s theme, “Accelerating Action on Super Pollutants: The Road to COP30.”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro will lead anti-government protests.

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro will address a new session of Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       New Zealand PM Christopher Luxon begins a five-day visit to Delhi for the Raisina Dialogue.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraq will observe a national holiday to honor the victims of the 1988 Halabja massacre. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Wholesale Prices (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 17, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). Also, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1701 report (the Israeli-Lebanese border).  In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 1591 Committee (regarding Sudan) as well as a briefing on the 1540 Committee (dealing with nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons).

·       The OECD Global Economic Forecast will be released in Paris, France.

·       The BRICS Tourism Working Group meets in Brazil.

·       There will be a BRICS Rapid Security Channel Meeting.

·       World Bank Global Digital Summit begins in Washington, running until Thursday.

·        There will be a meeting of the Council of the International Seabed Authority in Kingston, Jamaica.

·       Today is St. Patrick’s Day. We hope you are wearing something green to celebrate.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will hold a meeting with oil executives at the White House to discuss energy production in the face of falling prices for crude oil.

·       Supporters of Jair Bolsonaro will hold a mass rally against President Lula da Silva's government in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Housing Starts (February)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (January)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (March)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Business Inventories (January)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (March)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (January)/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Colombia Cement Production (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Senior Chinese official holds briefing on national economic performance of the first two months of 2025.  They will also hold a media briefing on government efforts to boost consumer spending.

·       The Raisina Dialogue begins in New Delhi, India.  The Dialogue is India’s premier conference on geopolitics and geoeconomics.

·       Britain's Net Zero Minister Ed Miliband visits for UK-China Energy Dialogue.

·       The US-ASEAN Business Council holds a media briefing with representatives from U.S. companies, diplomats and government officials as part of an American business delegation visiting the Southeast Asian nation to mark 30 years of U.S.-Vietnam diplomatic relations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (February)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

·       China House Price Index (February)/ Industrial Production (January)-(February)/ Retail Sales (January-February)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (January)-(February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       India WPI Food Index (February)/ WPI Fuel (February)/ WPI Inflation (February)/ WPI Manufacturing (February)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (February)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Services PMI (February)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  EU foreign ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East (focus on Gaza, Syria, and Iran) but will also discuss the increasingly tense relations with the US.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council will meet in Warsaw, Poland through March 18.  Minters will discuss the EU’s energy security architecture, the energy situation in Ukraine, and critical infrastructure.  On the sidelines of the meeting, there will be an informal meeting of EU Transport Ministers in Warsaw, Poland.

·       The Standing with Syria-Brussels 9th Conference will be held in Brussels.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania Kęstutis Budrys, at NATO Headquarters, in Brussels.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin hosts Tajik President Emomali Rahmon for bilateral talks in Moscow.

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will announce details of his welfare reform plan.

·       In Moscow, a preliminary hearing in the trial of ex-deputy defense minister Timur Ivanov accused of embezzlement.

·       Georgia court to deliver verdict in the case of ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili. He has been charged with fraud.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is awarded a  diploma from the Faculty of Law and Political Science of Université Aix-Marseille in Aix-en-Provence, France.

·       Italy Inflation Rate (February)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (January)

·       Romania Current Account (January)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (February)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (January)/ Core Inflation Rate (January)/ Core Inflation Rate (February)/ Current Account (January)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (January)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q1

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

Tuesday, March 18, 2025

Global

·       The UN Human Rights Council will meet to discuss the situation in Venezuela.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chile Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Canada Inflation Rate (February)/ CPI Median (February)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (February)

·       USA Housing Starts (February)/ Building Permits Prel (February)/ Export Prices (February)/ Import Prices (February)/ Redbook (March/15)/ Capacity Utilization (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/14)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

·       Brazil Business Confidence (March)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (January)/ Imports (January)/ ISE Economic Activity (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Defence Technology Summit will be held in Singapore through Friday. The Summit brings together representatives of government, industry, academia and think tanks to exchange views on defense and security developments. High-level delegates from U.S. companies including Oracle, Boeing and Palantir Technologies are set to attend.

·       A U.S. business delegation, including representatives from Amazon, Apple and Boeing, will visit Vietnam through March 20. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia’s Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Sara Hunter will speak at a banking conference in Sydney.

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (January)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (February)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (March/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels to discuss preparations for the March European Council meeting on March 20-21.

·       The German Bundestag (parliament) will vote on second reading of a €500 billion investment plan for defense and economy.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts French President Emmanuel Macron for Ukraine talks in Berlin, Germany.

·       The 5th EU-UK Parliamentary Partnership Assembly will be held in Brussels.

·       Euronext holds its annual conference.

·       The EU Tax Symposium will be held in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Italy Balance of Trade (January)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (January)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March)/ ZEW Current Conditions (March)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (January)

·       Russia PPI (February)

·       Belarus GDP (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Angola will host direct talks between the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Gutteres will meet with Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, Antonio Costa, the President of the European Council, as well as Roberta Metsola, the President of the European Parliament in advance of the Euro Summit on Thursday.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard will travel to Hawaii (where a large National Security Agency office is located), Japan, Thailand, India, and France for meetings with her counterparts.

·       In Bogota, Colombia, unions and citizens march for the non-approval in Congress of the reforms of Gustavo Petro's government.

·       The Mexico City Congress debates initiative to ban bullfighting in the capital.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins two days of meetings to discuss the economy and interest rates

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/14)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (March/14)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/14)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (March/14)/ / Net Long-term TIC Flows (January)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (January)

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q4

·       Argentina Full Year GDP Growth 2024/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Leading Indicator (February)

·       Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan meets to consider interest rates.

·       New Zealand Current Account Q4

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Machinery Orders (January)/Capacity Utilization (January)/ Industrial Production (January)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (February)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (February)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (March)

·       India M3 Money Supply (March/07)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Tripartite Social Summit will be held in Brussels. The main theme of the tripartite social summit will be ‘Bringing Europe back on track in a challenging geopolitical environment as an attractive, competitive and investment friendly location that protects and creates quality jobs.”  The Tripartite Social Summit is a forum for dialogue between the EU institutions at president level and the European social partners at top management level. The summit is co-chaired by the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission. The participating European-level social partners include: BusinessEurope, the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC), SGI Europe (association of enterprises with services of general interest), SMEunited (association of crafts and SMEs in Europe), Eurocadres (council of European professional and managerial staff).  Participants will discuss the following topics: strengthening the EU in a challenging geopolitical environment, bringing Europe back on track as an attractive, competitive and investment friendly location that protects and creates quality jobs.

·       The European Commission will formally release its 2025 White Paper on the Future of European Defense.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at V Observatorio Finanzas in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Frank Elderson gives a  keynote speech at the annual European Financials Conference organized by Morgan Stanley in London, UK.

·       Euro Area CPI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Labour Cost Index Q4/ Wage Growth Q4

·       European Union European Council Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (January)/ Total Credit (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

Thursday, March 20, 2025

Global

·       The BRICS 4th Agriculture Working Group meets in Brazil.

·       The BICCS 2nd meeting Committee of Energy Officials will be held in Brazil.

·       The International Olympic Committee elects a new president to succeed Thomas Bach. Seven candidates vying for the IOC's top job include Japan's Morinari Watanabe, president of the International Gymnastics Federation. World Athletics President Sebastian Coe is also in the running.

·       Today is the Vernal Equinox, the first day of spring in the northern hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       China will launch 100% retaliatory tariffs totaling more than $2.6 billion against Canadian agricultural products.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee announces their interest rate decision followed by a press conference held by Fed Chair Jay Powell.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem gives a speech at the Calgary Economic Development event.

·       Mexico Private Spending Q4

·       Canada PPI (February)/ Raw Materials Prices (February)

·       USA Current Account Q4/ Initial Jobless Claims (March/15)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (March)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (March)/ Philly Fed Employment (March)/ Philly Fed New Orders (March)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (March)/ Existing Home Sales (February)/ CB Leading Index (February)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March/14)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/20)/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/19)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Australia Employment Change (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Participation Rate (February)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (March)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (February)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Euro Summit will be held in Brussels, bringing together leaders from all 27 EU member states to discuss a stronger defense and security agenda as well as President Trump’s tariffs on EU goods and services.

·       The European Council will meet in Brussels.

·       The EU is expected to release an action plan to support Europe's steel sector.

·       Britain's Prince William visits Tallinn, Estonia to meet with British troops deployed as part of NATO's eastern flank reinforcement.

·       Bloomberg holds its Future of Finance Paris 2025 conference in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at the UCC Economics Society's Conference at University College Cork (UCC) in Cork, Ireland.

·       Germany PPI (February)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (February)/ SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       The Bank of England meets to decide on interest rates.

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (January)/ Employment Change (January)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (February)/ Claimant Count Change (February)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (March)

·       Italy Construction Output (January)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (February)/ Employment Growth (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ PPI (February)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (January)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (January)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/14)/ Central Government Debt (February)

·       Serbia Current Account (January)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (February)

·       European Union European Council Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar is expected to travel to London for meetings with Prime Minister Kier Starmer.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (February)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (February)/ Total Credit Growth (February)

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Inflation Expectations (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (January)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, March 21, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East (Gaza).

·       Today is World Downs Syndrome Day. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa and leftist Luisa González debate before the presidential runoff.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the 2nd Biennial Macroeconometric Caribbean Conference organized by the Central Bank of The Bahamas and the Indiana University Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research (CAEPR).

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       USA Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (March/21)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (January)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (February)

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (February)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Operation Freedom Shield – joint US-South Korean military exercises – begin in South Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (February)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Credit Card Spending (February)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (March)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Foreign Bond Investment (March/15)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/15)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Hong Kong Current Account Q4

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/14)

·       China FDI (YTD) (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (March)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (February)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       France Business Confidence (March)/ Business Climate Indicator (March)

·       Euro Area Current Account (January)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (March)

·       Greece Current Account (January)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (March)/ PPI (February)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Italy Current Account (January)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Consumer Confidence Q1

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (February)

·       Slovakia Current Account (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nowruz – the Persian New Year – is observed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Namibia Independence Day. President-elect Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah will be sworn into office, the country's first female president.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, March 22, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Curaçao holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 23, 2025 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentine President Javier Milei will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Israel. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The China Development Forum begins in Beijing, China.  The Forum brings together international business leaders and Chinese officials for meetings through March 24.

·       Pakistan celebrates Republic Day. The government will hold large military parades showing a wide array of weapons, including nuclear capable weapons systems.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania Presidential Election (1st Round)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey's main opposition party, the Republican People's Party, will hold presidential primaries ahead of Turkey's 2028 presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.