The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s Tariffs Continue to Dominate Markets and Geopolitics, Chinese President Xi Travels Embarks on Asia Tour, The ECB Decides on Interest Rates, and Fed Chair Powell Talks Gives Speech on the Economic Outlook

April 13 - 20, 2025

It was another wild week for global markets in the wake of President Trump’s global tariff plan after he called a 90-day time-out on their implementation while raising tariffs on China to 145%.  While this coming week would normally be a quiet week for markets in advance of the Easter holiday, everyone is bracing for another wild week of high-level bilateral meetings and likely new announcements.

Drilling into the week ahead, we are going to be watching the meeting between Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and President Trump on Thursday to discuss prospects for a trade deal with the EU.   Additionally, we note there are unconfirmed reports US Treasury Scott Bessent may meet with UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves this week, too, to discuss a possible US-UK trade deal.   Bessent is scheduled to travel to Argentina on Monday to meet with President Javier Milei as Argentia is likely to sign a new deal with the IMF on financing assistance, further boosting Milei’s economic reform policies.

While all this going on, Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia for his first foreign visits of the year.  Trade relations are expected to be the primary point of discussion in the wake of the Trump tariffs – especially on Vietnam and Cambodia which got hit with tariffs of 46% and 49% respectively.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, it will be a relatively light economic reporting week.   Markets, however, will be most focused on central bank decisions coming from the  European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada.   

In the US, we will see the release of Q1 GDP, retail sales figures, industrial production for March and jobless claims on Friday.  But perhaps the most keenly watched economic data point this week will be Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday as well as speech by a number of regional Federal Reserve Presidents.

In Asia, Japan releases its March CPI on Friday while China’s Q1 GDP as well as March trade balance figures for March are out Monday.

In Europe, the UK labor market indicators are out Tuesday and  March CPI is out on Wednesday.  Germany sees the ZEW Survey for April out on Tuesday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, April 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador holds its 2nd round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Beijing hosts the world’s first half marathon featuring both human and humanoid robot runners at the Chinese capital’s artificial intelligence hub.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (March)/ Total Social Financing (March)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (March)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will travel to Washington to hold new talks aimed at resolving EU-U.S. trade tensions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       India will launch joint military exercises with 10 African states located along the continent's eastern coast off the coast of Tanzania.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 14, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).  

·       OPEC releases its monthly Oil Market Report.

·       There will be a BRICS Agriculture Working Group meeting in Brasilia, Brazil through April 15.

·       There will be a BRICs Meeting of Senior Energy Officials (virtual) through April 15.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump hosts Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele at the White House.

·       U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with Argentina's President Javier Milei and local businesspeople in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

·       The U.S. Federal Trade Commission begins opening arguments in the trial seeking to unwind Meta’s purchase of Instagram.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Outlook with Chris Waller Event, hosted by the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Society of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Driving Through the Economic Fog" before the Greater Greer Chamber of Commerce.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on monetary policy in a moderated conversation hosted by Emory University.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will speak the Villanova Univeristy School of Business.

·       Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (February)/ Wholesale Sales (February)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi kicks begins a tour to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia that ends on Friday. The trip comes at a critical time for both China and Southeast Asia, with Vietnam and Cambodia among the countries hit hardest by the tariffs Trump announced on April 2. Malaysia, meanwhile, is this year's ASEAN chair, leading the bloc's response to Washington's measures.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (March)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (March)/ Visitor Arrivals (February)

·       Singapore Central Bank interest rate decision/GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Car Sales (March)

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  Ministers are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine, Syria, Gaza, and Iran.  They will also talk about EU-Africa relations, the Western Balkans and how to engage further in the Balkans.

·       There will be an information meeting of EU Social Affairs Ministers through April 15 in Warsaw, Poland. 

·       The 1st EU-Palestine High-Level Political Dialogue in Luxembourg.  The gathering, led by  the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, and the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Palestinian Authority, Mohammad Mustafa. The Commission will be represented by Commissioner for the Mediterranean, Dubravka Šuica and Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness and Crisis Management Hadja Lahbib.  This the first ever meeting of EU and Palestinian leaders at this level and they are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza, the unfolding situation in the West Bank, and prospects for a two-state solution.

·       The Fourth Accession Conference with Albania will be held in Luxembourg.  The meeting will serve to open negotiations with Albania on Cluster 2 ‘Internal market’, including Chapters 1 (free movement of goods), 2 (freedom of movement of workers), 3 (right of establishment and freedom to provide services), 4 (free movement of capital), 6 (company law), 7 (intellectual property law), 8 (competition policy), 9 (financial services) and 28 (consumer and health protection).

·       Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov will take part in the Third Meeting of National Coordinators of the Group of Friends in Defense of the United Nations Charter” in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hungary Construction Output (February)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (March)

·       Turkey Current Account (February)/ Auto Production (March)/ Auto Sales (March)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Current Account Q4

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (February)

Tuesday, April 15, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).  

·       There will be a BRICS Climate Finance Meeting (virtual).

·       There will be a BRICS meeting on the global re-insurance landscape (virtual) through April 16.

·       The International Energy Agency (IEA) Monthly Oil Market Report is published.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Peru, former president Ollanta Humala and his wife, Nadine Heredia, accused of money laundering, set to hear their sentence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives remarks at the acceptance of the 2025 Distinguished Alumna Award at the Cal Alumni Club of Washington, D.C. Annual Reception, Washington, D.C.

·       Canada Housing Starts (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI Median (March)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (March)/ Manufacturing Sales (February)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)/ Import & Export Prices (March)/ Redbook (April/12)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ NOPA Crush Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/11)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (March)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In North Korea, the country celebrates the Day of the Sun, marking the birthday of the country’s first leader Kim Il Sung.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (March)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/15)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       India WPI Food Index/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Philippines Consumer Confidence Q1/ Cash Remittances (February)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank President will host an informal dinner and exchange of views of the Council with the President of the European Council António Costa in Frankfurt.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Employment Change (February)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (March)/ Claimant Count Change (March)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (March)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)/ ZEW Current Conditions (April)

·       Romania Industrial Production (February)

·       France Inflation Rate (March)/ IEA Oil Market Report

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (March)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (February) / ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (February)

·       Serbia Building Permits (February)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Bahrain hosts the Smart Cities Summit through April 16.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (March)/ Wholesale Prices (March)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (February)/ Mining Production (February)/ SARB Monetary Policy Review

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

Wednesday, April 16, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultation, on the Great Lakes region.  

·       the World Trade Organization publishes its annual Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, analyzing recent global trade developments up to the fourth quarter of 2024 and forecasting GDP in 2025

·       There will be a BRICS Disaster Management Working Group meeting through April 17 in Brasilia, Brazil.

·       There will be a meeting of BRICS Transport Working Group in Brasilia, Brazil through April 17.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on "Fed 101" and participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before event, "Columbus Metropolitan Club Weekly Forum: Insights from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack"

·       Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economy and community banking with Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan before a Global Perspectives event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Dallas Citizens Council.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/11)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/11)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/11)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Capacity Utilization (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ Business Inventories (February)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (April)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (February)/ EIA Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stocks Change (April/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (February)/ Foreign Bond Investment (February)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (February)

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Report & Press Conference

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (March)/ Leading Indicator (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun will travel to Hanoi for meetings with Vietnam’s General Phan Van Giang.  Together, they will watch the 38th joint naval patrol in the Gulf of Tonkin.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Korea Interest Rate Decision/South Korea Export & Import Prices (March)

·       New Zealand Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (April)/ Machinery Orders (February)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (March)

·       China House Price Index (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (February)

·       India M3 Money Supply (April/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU gender equality ministers in Warsaw, Poland.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Price Index (March)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Euro Area Current Account (February)/ Core Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (February)

·       Serbia Current Account (February)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (March)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (March)

·       Russia PPI (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (February)

Thursday, April 17, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at the White House.  They are expected to discuss Trump’s tariff regime toward the EU.

·       Japan and the United States will hold their first round of high-level negotiations on U.S. tariffs in Washington.

·       U.S. fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated ships will go into effect, although the extent of the fees is unclear given recent reconsideration in Washington.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Michael S. Barr will give a speech on Cybersecurity in the Banking System at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs 2025 State-of-the-Field Conference on Cyber Risk to Financial Stability, New York, New York.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (April)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (February)

·       USA Housing Starts (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/12)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/05)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (April)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (April)/ Philly Fed Employment (April)/ Philly Fed New Orders (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/11)/15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/17)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/18)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/16)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Junko Nakagawa gives a speech to local business leaders in Gunma, Japan.

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q1

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (April/12)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/12)/ BoJ Nakagawa Speech

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Employment Change (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Participation Rate (March)

·       Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q1

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Services PMI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

·       Germany PPI (March)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (March)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (February)

·       Greece Current Account (February)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/11)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area Deposit Facility Rate/ / Marginal Lending Rate

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Belarus GDP (March)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Syria Independence Day, marking the day in 1946 when the country gained its independence from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (February)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

·       Ghana PPI (March)

Friday, April 18, 2025

Global

·       Today is Good Friday.  Most financial markets in Europe and the Americas are closed.

·       The United Nations is closed in observation of Good Friday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President J.D. Vance visits Italy and will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (a day after she meets with President Trump in Washington).  Vance will also visit the Vatican for Good Friday ahead of Easter Sunday.

·       Iran-US nuclear talks to resume (to be confirmed) in Oman.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly will participate in a conversation at the University of California Berkeley Fisher Center for Real Estate & Urban Economics.

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (March)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/11)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (March)

·       China FDI (YTD) (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Serbia’s new government takes office after mass protests forced the previous government to resign.

·       In the UK a four-day strike begins by members of the union Unite over pay, pensions and conditions for 100 Red Handling staff, including baggage handlers and flight dispatchers, at Gatwick airport.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Italy Balance of Trade (February)/ Construction Output (February)

·       Slovenia PPI (March)

·       Slovakia Current Account (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (March)/ Manufacturing PMI (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, April 19, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·      In the US, thousands of demonstrators are expected to gather in Washington and other US cities to protest against President Donald Trump and his policies.

·       Today is the 250th anniversary of the start of the American Revolution (the Battles of Lexington and Concord).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 20, 2025 

Global

·       Today is Easter Sunday in the Western Christan world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NASA’s Lucy mission, a robotic spacecraft, is expected to pass the main belt asteroid 52246 Donaldjohanson on its way to the Trojan asteroids that share Jupiter’s orbit.

·        

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s Tariffs Go Into Effect as China and EU Move to Retaliate, Netanyahu Meets with Trump on Iran and Tariffs, and Markets Look to Fed Minutes for Guidance

April 6 - 13, 2025

What a week the global markets had last week! And it is not over, as this coming week looks just as turbulent. President Trump’s new tariff regime will go into effect this week, and China’s retaliatory 34% tariffs will go into effect, too. EU trade ministers’ officials meet on Tuesday to consider the full impact of the Trump tariffs and likely move to institute their retaliatory tariffs.

We expect a number of bilateral meetings to be announced this week with the US as countries seek quick relief. Vietnam has already sent a delegation to Washington, and we will be watching closely for any announcements. Vietnam has a $124 billion trade deficit with the US, the second highest after China, and has been hit with a 46% tariff rate. The US is Vietnam’s largest export market.

With all this going on, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG), which is comprised of 50 countries supporting Ukraine militarily and financially, will meet in Brussels. But for the first time, no senior US official will attend. The absence comes as President Trump continues to press Russia to agree to a cease-fire – an effort that saw Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, was taken off the US sanctions list so he could travel to Washington to meet with US officials to discuss the current peace proposal. The former Goldman Sachs banker has since told reporters he believes there will be further discussions this coming week between Washington and Moscow, but he gave no details in what form they will take.

Also this coming week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is traveling to Washington for his second set of meetings this year with President Trump. The two leaders are expected to discuss the tariff situation, the situation in Gaza, and the policy coordination toward Iran.

We would also note that something else of significance is taking place in Washington this week: Tawain’s top national security official, Joseph Wu, is holding a secret meeting with senior US officials about the ongoing tensions with China. The US and Taiwan are terming the meetings as a “special channel” for Tawain and the US to discuss security issues.

 Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, markets are looking to Wednesday’s release of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee minutes for indications of what the Fed might do regarding the tariffs. Also out this week will be US CPI for March and the important University of Michigan consumer survey for April.

In Europe, European Central Bank officials will gather with EU Finance and economic ministers this week to discuss the economic impact of the tariffs. Also this week, the UK GDP for February is out on Friday, and Germany reports its March CPI numbers.

In Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will speak on Wednesday and likely reveal early views of the tariffs' impact. Meanwhile, China will report both CPI and PPI figures on Thursday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, April 6, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian right-wing supporters will demonstrate in Sao Paulo in support of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Daylight Savings ends in Australia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 7, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on UN Peacekeeping operations (HOMC).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House. In a statement, the Israeli Prime Minister said the two leaders will discuss “discuss the tariff issue, the efforts to return our hostages, Israel-Turkey relations, the Iranian threat and the battle against the International Criminal Court.”

·       US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth travels to Panama for talks with Panama’s President Jose Raul Mulino.

·       New session of Greenlandic Parliament (Inatsisartut) opens.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a virtual lecture at Harvard University entitled “Inflation Dynamics and the Phillips Curve.”

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (March)/ Auto Production (March)

·       Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey

·       USA Consumer Credit Change (February)/ Used Car Prices (March)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (March)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN finance ministers and central bank chiefs will meet in Kuala Lumpur through April 10. They will seek to address economic challenges, including the impact of Trump's latest tariffs. The main meeting is set for Thursday and is expected to discuss regional financial integration and resilience amid escalating geopolitical tensions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (February)/ Overtime Pay (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Coincident Index Prel (February)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (February)

·       Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (March)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Indonesia Tourist Arrivals (January & February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Luxembourg to discuss President Trump’s tariffs and possible responses and retaliatory tariffs. They will also discuss ongoing trade issues with China.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Culture and Media Ministers through April 8 in Warsaw, Poland.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travels to Tokyo, Japan for talks.

·       Polish President Andrzej Duda visits Estonia for bilateral talks.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov speaks at opening of TASS photo exhibition in Moscow.  He then will give remarks later regarding the development of the Kaluga region.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in  Session 2 "Central bank money in a digital World: CBDCs" at conference "The interplay between tax and financial regulations in a new digital environment" organized by Banca d'Italia, Institute for Austrian and International Tax Law and Vienna University of Economics and Business in Rome, Italy.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

·       Romania Retail Sales (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (March)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (March)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (February)

·       France Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (February)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Euro Area Retail Sales (February)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Greece Balance of Trade (February)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/28)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron visits Cairo, Egypt for bilateral talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (March)

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q4/ PPI (February)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Tuesday, April 8, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). 

·       The Soyuz MS-27 spacecraft launches from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan to ISS with two Russians and one American.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Central American Security Conference, organized by Panama and US Southern Command begins in Panama and goes through April 10.  US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will participate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in “The Economic Outlook and Work of the Federal Reserve" conversation hosted by the Brigham Young University Marriott School of Business.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (March)/ Redbook (April/05)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/04)

·       Chile Inflation Rate (March)

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (February)/ Nominal Budget Balance (February)/ Car Production (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (March)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea will announce the date of forthcoming snap elections.

·       Vietnamese President Luong Cuong will pay a state visit to Laos through April 9. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence & Utilization Q1

·       Japan Current Account (February)/ Bank Lending (March)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (March)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (April)/ NAB Business Confidence (March)

·       South Korea Current Account (February)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

·       Indonesia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will visit London for another round of free trade negotiations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the closing speech at the annual meeting of the Spanish Banking Association in Madrid, Spain.  Later in the day, he will give the introductory statement at a Hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Governor Clare Lombardelli takes part in a panel discussion with former Obama adviser Jason Furman on the divergence between British and American economic productivity at an event hosted by the Resolution Foundation think-tank in London.

·       Ireland Construction PMI (March)/ Industrial Production (February)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (March)/ Budget Balance (March)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account (February)

·       Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

·       Egypt Current Account Q4

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (March)

Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Global

·       President Donald Trump’s announced trade tariffs are due to take effect at 12:01 a.m. Washington time.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting on Somalia. .

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) Conference begins in Tegucigalpa, Honduras.

·       Union workers will begin a 36-hour long strike in Buenos Aires against President Javier Milei’s policies.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a conversation with the Economic Club of Washington.

·       Federal Reserve’s FOMC Minutes released/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/04)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/04)/ Wholesale Inventories (February)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (April/04)

·       Brazil Bank Lending (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ PPI (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (March)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (February)

·       El Salvador PPI (March)

·       Panama Current Account Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asian Development Bank releases the latest edition of its widely followed economic publication, the Asian Development Outlook. The report will include growth forecasts for emerging economies in Asia this year and next

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kazuno Ueda gives a speech at the 100th Trustee Conference in Tokyo.

·       Australia Building Permits (February)/ Private House Approvals (February)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Indonesia RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio

·       Japan Consumer Confidence (March)/ Machine Tool Orders (March)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 10th EU-Ukraine Association Council will meet in Brussels

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez visits Vietnam and China through April 11.

·       The Chair and Vice-Chair of The European Parliament’s Delegation for Relations with the United States, together with the chairs of the committees on foreign affairs and international trade, will travel to Washington DC to meet with counterparts in the US Congress. They will discuss the situation in Ukraine and its impact on transatlantic relations, EU-US trade, and relations with China.

·       The Delphi Economic Forum begins in Delphi, Greece and runs through April 12.  A number of government officials, senior business executives, and central bankers are scheduled to speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a in policy panel 'Macro-Financial Stability Policy in a Fragmented World' at Bruegel's 20th anniversary event "Globalization and geo-economic fragmentation" organized together with De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       Romania Balance of Trade (February)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (February)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The US-MEAD Summit takes place in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, April 10, 2025 

Global

·       G20 finance and central bank deputies two-day meeting begins in Johannesburg, South Africa.

·       There will be a meeting of the BRICS Working Group on Security in the Use of Information and Communications Technologies (WGSICT) in Brasilia, Brazil through April 11.

Americas

·       China’s 34% retaliatory tariffs against US imports take effect.

·       A senior Ukrainian delegation is expected to travel to Washington to discuss a draft proposal granting the US access to critical minerals in Ukraine (to be confirmed).

Political/Social Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will have her confirmation hearing to serve as Vice Chair for Supervision before the Senate Banking Committee.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives welcome remarks before hybrid Outlook for North American Trade and Immigration event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Economic Club of New York.

·       Canada Building Permits (February)

·       USA Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/05)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/04)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/10)/ WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (March)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/09)

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (March)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (February)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Global Technology Summit begins in New Delhi.

Economic Reports/Events –

§  Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock to speak at the Chief Executive Women Melbourne Annual Dinner in Melbourne, Australia.

§  South Korea Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/05)/ PPI (March)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/05)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ RBA Bullock Speech

·       China Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK-Germany-France led “Coalition of the Willing” will meet at NATO Headquarters.  The coalition consists of those countries willing to militarily and financially support Ukraine.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal in Brussels.

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will conduct a state visit to South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give a
lecture at the SGH Warsaw School of Economics in Warsaw, Poland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner will participate in a  session "Adapting regulation and supervision to diversity in the EU banking system" at Eurofi High Level Seminar in Warsaw, Poland.  Later in the day, he will participate in a session entitled “''Banking Union: combining EU and national interests."

·       Bank of England deputy governor for financial stability Sarah Breeden speaks at Market News International connect event, UK Economic and Financial Stability Prospects in London.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen will participate in apanel discussion "Priorities for the EU banking sector" at Eurofi High Level Seminar in Warsaw, Poland.

·       European Central Bank Supervisory Board Member Sharon Donnery will give a  speech at the Delphi Economic Forum X in Delphi, Greece.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (March)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Euro Area ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Tuominen Speech/ ECB Buch Speech/ ECB Donnery Speech/ ECOFIN Meeting/ Eurogroup Meeting

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (February)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/04)

·       Italy Industrial Production (February)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (February)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (March)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (March)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (March)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (March)

·       Switzerland SNB Moser Speech/ SNB Tschudin Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Tesla will begin selling its cars in Saudi Arabia for the first time.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Court of Justice is set to hear arguments in a case filed by Sudan against the United Arab Emirates, in which Khartoum has accused the Gulf state of complicity in genocide.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (February)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (March)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (March)

Friday, April 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in moderated conversation before the Arkansas State Bank Department's 29th Annual Day with the Commissioner.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Puerto Rico Chamber of Commerce.

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (March)/ IBC-BR Economic Activity (February)/ Business Confidence (April)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (February)

·       USA PPI (March) / Michigan Current Conditions Prel (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/11)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (March)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (March)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Business Confidence Q1

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       India Industrial Production (February)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ Bank Loan Growth (March/28)/ Deposit Growth (March/28)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/04)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (March)

·       China Vehicle Sales (March)/ New Yuan Loans (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (March)/ Total Social Financing (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup will meet in Warsaw, Poland.  Leaders will discuss economic developments and euro area policy coordination and upcoming international meetings.  There will also be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers through April 12.

·       The Ukraine Defense Contact Group will meet at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.  Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is expected to skip the meeting in an unusual and widely noted move.

·       The Council of Foreign Ministers of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) will meet in Kazakhstan.  The CIS is made up of 12 former Soviet states: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.

·       IN Instanbul, the trial of Istanbul Mayor and national opposition leader Ekrem Imamoglu for various charges begins.

·       Turkey will host the annual Antalya Diplomacy Forum in its Mediterranean resort city of Antalya through Sunday. Under the theme "Reclaiming Diplomacy in a Fragmented World.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

·       Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ GDP (February)/ Construction Output (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (March)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (February)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (February)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (March)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Auto Production & Sales (March)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECOFIN Meeting

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account (February)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account Q1/ Inflation Rate (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (March)

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

Saturday, April 12, 2025

Global

·       The Jewish holiday of Passover begins and goes through April 20.

·       Today is Palm Sunday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Osaka Expo begins with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba as well as the nation's emperor and empress are due to attend the opening ceremony.  The Expo goes for six months and will showcase technologies and innovations from 165 countries and organizations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Gabon holds Presidential and Parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador holds its 2nd round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ecuador Presidential Election (2nd Round)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Beijing hosts the world’s first half marathon featuring both human and humanoid robot runners at the Chinese capital’s artificial intelligence hub.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Finland holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

U.S.-Led Ukraine Peace Talks Resume in Saudi Arabia, Trump Officials to Make A “Private Visit” to Greenland, Canda’s Carney Calls Snap Elections,  China Hosts Two Major Economic Forums, and It Is A Heavy Week of Economic Reports

March 23 - 30, 2025

Spring is in the air in the Northern Hemisphere after a pretty rough winter.  And with it comes a significant uptick of diplomatic activity globally.  This coming week, U.S. diplomats will again travel to Ryad, Saudi Arabia for talks with Russian counterparts in a bid to reach an agreement on a ceasefire in Ukraine.  As we reported last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin seemed to make some positive remarks toward reaching a deal but then reiterated a host of unpalatable demands on the US, NATO, and Ukraine – including removing NATO forces from Eastern European NATO member states and no NATO membership for Ukraine.  This was followed by some of the most intensive missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian civilian targets since the war began.

One aspect of the talks will focus on how to make shipping safer in the Black Sea as a means to reaching a cease-fire.  We continue to pessimistic Putin – who is celebrating his 25th year in power this week – will relent and agree on any peace deal.

Also this week, U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Walz and 2nd Lady Usha Vance are scheduled to make a “private visit” to Greenland as the newly elected government there begins forming.  What exactly they are doing – and why the 2nd Lady is involved – remains a mystery at this time of writing.

Meanwhile, newly chosen Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has called for snap elections on April 28.  Carney said he needs a strong mandate to deal with President Trump, saying Trump “wants to break us so America can own us.”  Carney went on to say Canada is facing “the most significant crisis of our lifetimes because of President Trump’s unjustified trade actions and his threats to our sovereignty.”     Oddly, this comes as President Trump claimed British King Charles II secretly offered – and Trump indicated he was  interested in pursuing –the U.S. to become an associate member of the British Commonwealth.  The Commonwealth, which was created in 1926, is made up of 56 countries – including Canada – which were originally British colonies.

China will be holding two major economic forums this week which are likely to give investors greater insight into the state of China’s economy and what new steps Beijing may take to try to further bolster the economy.  The first is the China Development Forum (CDF) and the second is the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) which is commonly referred to as the “Davos of Asia.”    The CDF comes as foreign investment in China has been rapidly shrinking.  Major US and European CEOs are scheduled to attend and are expected to meet with President Xi Jinping.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it is going to be a big week with lots of new data coming out globally.   Inflation indicators are going to be released in the US, Japan, and Europe.

Looking first at the US, the February PCE and personal income and spending data are due out on Friday as well as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday.  The Conference Board’s report will be closely looked at by investors following the University of Michigan’s economic reports last week which showed consumer sentiment had sunk to its lowest level since 2022. 

Additionally, as the U.S. Congress struggles to hammer out a tax and budget deal via a giant Reconciliation package, the Congressional Budget Office is publishing its federal debt outlook on Wednesday and the statutory limit report on Thursday, putting more pressure on how far Congress can go cutting taxes and dealing  more aggressively with the deficit.

Turning to Europe, the UK releases CPI and RPI data on Wednesday while the Eurozone March flash CPIs are out on Friday.  Germany releases the Ifo survey on Tuesday and we will see consumer sentiment numbers from Germany, Italy, and France this week, too.

In Asia, the Central Bank of Japan releases recent meeting minutes as the Tokyo CPI is out Friday. Australia releases its budget this week, too.  And in China, the 1-year MLF rate is set on Tuesday while we will see industrial profit reports on Thursday. 

Below are the rest of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we will be watching in the coming week:

Sunday, March 23, 2025

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will call for snap elections for April 28.  Carney is citing “the most significant crisis of our lifetime” caused by President Trump and the tariffs he has placed on the country.

·       Argentine President Javier Milei will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Israel. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and First Lady Jane Yumiko Ittogi begin a state visit to Belgium and Luxembourg.

·       Pakistan celebrates Republic Day. The government will hold large military parades showing a wide array of weapons, including nuclear-capable weapons systems.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania Presidential Election (1st Round)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas will visit Cairo, Egypt to discuss the situation in Gaza.

·       Turkey's main opposition party, the Republican People's Party, will hold presidential primaries ahead of Turkey's 2028 presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 24, 2025

Global

·       US-Ukraine talks on establishing a cease-fire take place in Saudi Arabia through March 24.  Negotiators are expected to discuss how to ensure safer shipping in the Black Sea as part of the talks

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Advancing adaptability in UN Peace Operations – Responding to new realities. The Secretary-General will deliver remarks.

·       At the United Nations, Filippo Grandi, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Ms. Amy Pope, International Organization for Migration Director General, and a representative of the Bangladesh Government, will launch the 2025-26 Joint Response Plan (JRP) for the Rohingya Humanitarian Crisis in Bangladesh. The first-ever multi-year funding appeal for the Rohingya Response in Bangladesh brings together 113 partners, including Bangladeshi organizations, to reach some 1.48 million people including Rohingya refugees and host communities in its first year.  

·       The 1st meeting of BRICS Senior Energy Officials Committee meets in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli officials are expected to travel to Washington to discuss Iran’s nuclear program and Israel’s demarcation talks with Lebanon.

·       Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa and leftist Luisa González debate before the presidential runoff.

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on Small Business Lending at the Advancing Innovation and Fairness in Small Business Finance, Washington, D.C.

·       Chile PPI (February)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (January)/ Mid-month Core Inflation Rate (March)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (March)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (February)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

·       El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

·       Paraguay PPI (February)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva visits Japan from Monday to Thursday. He is to meet Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, and the pair are expected to agree on an action plan in the areas of investment and security.

·       South Korea's Constitutional Court will rule on the impeachment of acting President Han Duck-soo, which may allow him to resume his duties in that role.

· The Asian Development Bank publishes its Asian Economic Integration report.

·       The China Development Forum will begin in Beijing. The Forum is being held as China is seeing plunging inbound investments and growing uncertainties after sweeping U.S. import tariffs. Some of the executives are reportedly meeting President Xi Jinping after the forum.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia 2025–26 Federal Budget/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (February)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal’s Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel visits China for bilateral talks.

·       In Berlin, there will be a Press conference of the conservative party CDU general secretary Carsten Linnemann to inform on the stand of the negotiations on the formation of a new governing coalition.

·       NATO holds Dynamic Mariner 25 maritime exercises in Spain.

·       Isar Aerospace test flight of its Spectrum launcher, first flight of an orbital vehicle launched from continental Europe, launches from Andøya, Norway.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets with the Board of Trustees of the Gorchakov Fund think tank in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives the distinguished lecture at the University of Leicester.

·       Switzerland Current Account Q4

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

·       Greece Current Account (January)

·       Poland Retail Sales (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. They will hold a public policy debate on the Communication on a Vision for agriculture and food, published by the European Commission on 19 February 2025.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Health Ministers in Brussels through March 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (February)

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (February)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

·       The BRICS Sherpas Meeting takes place in Brazil through March 24.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil’s Supreme Court considers whether to try ex-president Jair Bolsonaro on coup charges.

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will visit Japan through March 26.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the Economic Landscape and Entrepreneurship at the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce 2025 Legislative Summit, Washington D.C.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives opening remarks before the 2025 New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ FGV Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (January)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (February)

·       USA Redbook (March/22)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (January)/ House Price Index (January)/ CB Consumer Confidence (March)/ New Home Sales (February)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ Money Supply (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/21)/ Building Permits (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Colombia Business Confidence (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Boao Forum, sometimes known as 'Asia's Davos,' starts on Tuesday on the southern Chinese island of Hainan under the banner "Asia in the Changing World: Towards a Shared Future." Bangladesh's leader Muhammad Yunus is expected to address the forum before heading to Beijing for a meeting with Xi on Friday. 

·       Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers presents the federal budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Australia RBA Jones Speech

·       The Bank of Japan meeting notes are published.

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (January)/ Leading Index (January)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The new German Parliament will convene its first session since federal elections on Feb. 23

·       In the Netherlands, NATO's largest air defense exercise Joint Project Optic Windmill (JPOW).

·       Today is Greek Independence Day, celebrating when the country won the Greek Revolution in 1821 freeing them from 400 years of occupation by the Ottoman Empire.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Union New Car Registrations (February)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (March)/ Capacity Utilization (March)

·       Spain PPI (February)/ Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (March)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (March)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (January)/ Consumer Confidence Q1

Wednesday, March 26, 2025

Global

·       The BRICS 1st Finance and Central Bank Deputies meets in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Governors of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) hold their annual meeting in Santiago, Chile though March 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks and participates in a moderated conversation on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before a Paducah Area Chamber of Commerce/Greater Paducah Economic Development luncheon.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/21)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (March/21)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/21)/ Durable Goods Orders (February)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (March/21)

·       Brazil Current Account (February)/ Foreign Direct Investment (February)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (February)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea’s opposition official Lee Jae-myung will face a legal verdict on charges of violating the election law. If convicted he will be banned from public office, and his party will have to select another candidate ahead of the next election.

·       Today is Independence Day in Bangladesh.

·       The Bangkok Auto Show begins and runs through April 6.

·       SEMICON China 2025, a massive semiconductor expo, begins in Shanghai, China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (March)

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (February)

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Japan Coincident Index (January)/ Leading Economic Index (January)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Finance minister Rachel Reeves delivers Spring Statement on the economy.

·       Today is the 25th anniversary of Vladimir Putin being elected President of Russia.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets with Esteban Lazo Hernandez, head of Cuba’s parliament, in Moscow.

·       Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin presents a government report to the State Duma.

·       The Russian Arctic Forum begins in Murmansk, Russia, and runs through March 27.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Ban Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone Participates in panel discussion entitled  ‘Philipp Sandner Award in Digital Finance Research’ at 11th Crypto Assets Conference organized by the Frankfurt School Blockchain Center in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI Input & Output (February)/ Retail Price Index (February)/ Spring Economic Statement

·       France Consumer Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (February)/ Jobseekers Total (February)

·       European Central Bank Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Russia Corporate Profits (January)/ Industrial Production (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, March 27, 2025

Global

·       The UN the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) followed by consultations.

·       The inaugural Global Conference on AI, Security and Ethics begins in Geneva and runs through March 28.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US National Security Advisor Mike Walz and Second Lady Usha Vance will travel to Greenland  - billed as a “private visit” – to participate in talks with the incoming new Greenland government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin delivers the H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economy at Washington and Lee University.

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (March)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (January)

·       USA GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Corporate Profits Q4/ GDP Price Index Q4/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (February)/ Initial Jobless Claims (March/22)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (March/15)/ PCE Prices Q4/ Real Consumer Spending Q4/ Pending Home Sales (February)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March/21)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (March)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/27)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/26)

·       Argentina Current Account Q4/ Economic Activity (January)

·       Colombia Cement Production (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te will hold the first "whole of society" civil defense drill during his term, part of a new initiative launched by the administration to assess and strengthen public preparedness. The exercise will incorporate complex disaster scenarios, including damage to critical infrastructure, and will verify the response capabilities of central and local government bodies. The test comes as tensions with China heat up, with Beijing's forces holding repeated military exercises near the island.

·       French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot will visit Beijing, China, through March 28.

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will visit Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (March/22)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/22)

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (February)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Malaysia PPI (February)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will host in Paris another summit of European leaders considering participation in a "coalition of willing" to support Ukraine. Representatives of Canada, the EU, and UK will attend.

·       EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic visits Beijing through March 29 to discuss a number of trade issues.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron hosts Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in Paris.

·       The EU Environmental Council will meet in Brussels.  Ministers will focus on the environmental dimension of the clean industrial deal, which was presented by the Commission on 26 February 2025 as a joint roadmap for competitiveness and decarbonization.  The clean industrial deal aims to bring together climate action and competitiveness under one overarching growth strategy, with a focus on energy intensive industries and clean tech. It puts a strong emphasis on circularity and envisages a range of measures to strengthen the circular economy, including a circular economy act, a green VAT initiative and a chemical industry package.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank General Council meeting

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde delivers a pre-recorded message at the conference "Mujeres en economía y finanzas" organized by Banco Central de Chile in Santiago, Chile.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Claudia Buch gives the introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the 2025 IIF European Summit "Europe at a Crossroads: A Time to Act for Competitiveness and Growth" in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel delivers the Mais Lecture “Financial literacy and monetary policy transmission” organized by Bayes Business School in London, United Kingdom.

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Participation Rate (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/21)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

·       Spain Retail Sales (February)/ Current Account (January)/ Business Confidence (March)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (March)

·       Russia GDP (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (February)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (March)

Friday, March 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will visit Vietnam through March 29.

·       U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will visit Manila, Philippines, through March 29.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr participates in a discussion on banking policy at the 2025 Banking Institute, Charlotte, North Carolina.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic moderates a Housing Finance Policy panel before the Third Annual Georgia Tech-Atlanta Fed Household Finance Conference.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Net Payrolls (February)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (March)/ GDP (January)/ Budget Balance (January)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (February)

·       USA Personal Income & Spending (February)/ PCE Price Index (February)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations & Sentiment (March)/ Michigan Current Conditions (March)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (March/28)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladesh's interim leader Muhammad Yunus will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping for bilateral talks in Beijing, China.

·       The Philippines kicks off campaigning for local positions, including all seats in the House of Representatives, half in the Senate and city and provincial offices, ahead of mid-term elections. Within seven weeks, Filipinos will head off to polling stations to vote in one of the most crucial elections in recent memory. Experts widely regard it as a proxy battle between the political clans of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and of ex-President Rodrigo Duterte.

·       Tajikistan holds elections for their upper house of parliament.

·       Today is Serf’s Emancipation Day in Tibet.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (March)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Construction Orders (February)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (February)/ Imports/ Exports (February)/ PPI (February)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (February)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (February)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (March)/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (March/14)/ Deposit Growth (March/14)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/21)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council (Cohesion) meets in Brussels. 

Economic Reports/Events –

European Central Bank Board Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives online remarks at the conference "VI Cumbre FEDEPE" organized by FEDEPE (Federation of Female Professionals).

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence APR/ Unemployed Persons/ Change/ Rate (March)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (March)

·       Great Britain Current Account Q4/ Goods Trade Balance (January)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Business Investment Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (February)

·       Hungary Current Account Q4/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       France Inflation Rate (March)/ Household Consumption (February)/ PPI (February)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (March)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (March)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (February)

·       Italy Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Industrial Sales (January)/ PPI (February)

·       Euro Area Economic Sentiment (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)/ Industrial Sentiment (March)/ Selling Price Expectations (March)/Services Sentiment (March)

·       Greece PPI (February)/ Total Credit (February)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (February)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (March)

Saturday, March 29, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will join US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Gen Nakatani, the Japanese Defence Minister, on the Pacific island of Iwo Jima for a joint memorial service to commemorate the 1945 battle that involved some of the fiercest fighting of the second world war and the location for the famous US marine flag raising image. According to the Financial Times. Hegseth is likely to use the occasion to lobby Japan to increase its defense spending.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Retail Sales (February)

·       Thailand Current Account (February)/ Private Consumption & Investment (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 30, 2025

Global

·       Eid al-Fitr will be observed. It is the first of the two official holidays celebrated within Islam. Eid al-Fitr is celebrated by Muslims worldwide because it marks the end of the month-long dawn-to-dusk fasting of Ramadan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Daylights Savings time begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

European Leaders Gather to Discuss European Defense and Security Planning, Trump Gathers Oil CEOs,  US-Russian Shuttle Diplomacy Continues, and the US, Japan, and UK Central Banks Meet on Interest Rates

March 16 - 23, 2025

It is going to be another action-packed week ahead geopolitically.  U.S. and Russian diplomats are expected to talk in an effort to reach a deal securing at least a temporary cease-fire in Ukraine.  Russian President Vladimir Putin seemed to indicate some support for the idea but then pushed back, saying there are a number of issues he still wants addressed.  President Trump late Sunday indicated he expected to talk to Putin later this week, but no set time or date has been set yet.  All in all, we believe negotiations are likely to be protracted.  Meanwhile, Russian forces have ramped up their assault on Ukrainian positions and made considerable gains against Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region of Russia.

European leaders will gather in Brussels for a Euro Summit this week to discuss how to advance a European defense and security agenda in the face of growing trade and defense tensions with the U.S.  An EU White Paper on EU Security is being formally released this week while German legislators will further consider a historic €500 billion defense and infrastructure package.   Europe is at a historic inflection point in facing a challenge to ensure its mutual defense and security and collective economic interests in the face of tough trade tariffs being placed on it by President Trump and ongoing trade tensions with China.

Meanwhile, President Trump will be gathering oil CEOs at the White House on Monday to discuss how to encourage more drilling in the US.  But with oil prices shrinking lately, the CEOs will likely be looking for guidance on economic incentives to help them achieve the President’s goals.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the week ahead, it will be a big week for central banks.  The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Central Bank of Brazil each meet to discuss the state of the economy and decide on interest rates.  This is likely to prove particularly challenging for the Fed as President Trump rapidly ramps up his tariff agenda.   The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are likely to hold steady on rates.

Looking at what else is happening in Asia, China will be releasing a number of important economic reports, including retail sales for the first two months of the year.  The data comes as Beijing has just finished the Two-Session meetings focused on economic recalibration.  Japan will be releasing trade data on Wednesday and CPI data on Friday.

In Europe, Germany’s ZEW survey is out on Tuesday.  But the biggest economic event in Germany will be the ongoing parliamentary debate over the proposed €500 billion defense and infrastructure package.  A deal has been reached between political parties, and the final vote is expected this week.  Also this week, the UK releases labor market figures.

Bringing it back to the U.S., markets are looking at January retail sales numbers on Monday and industrial production figures on Tuesday.   And in Canada, CPI figures are out this week, too.

Below is what else around the world we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, March 16, 2025

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will convene a meeting in Geneva of the two Cypriot leaders and the Guarantor Powers of Greece, Türkiye and the United Kingdom for an informal meeting on Cyprus.

·       The UN  Climate and Clean Air Conference 2025 will begin and run through March 21 in Brasilia, Brazil.  This year’s theme, “Accelerating Action on Super Pollutants: The Road to COP30.”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro will lead anti-government protests.

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro will address a new session of Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       New Zealand PM Christopher Luxon begins a five-day visit to Delhi for the Raisina Dialogue.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraq will observe a national holiday to honor the victims of the 1988 Halabja massacre. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Wholesale Prices (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 17, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). Also, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1701 report (the Israeli-Lebanese border).  In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 1591 Committee (regarding Sudan) as well as a briefing on the 1540 Committee (dealing with nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons).

·       The OECD Global Economic Forecast will be released in Paris, France.

·       The BRICS Tourism Working Group meets in Brazil.

·       There will be a BRICS Rapid Security Channel Meeting.

·       World Bank Global Digital Summit begins in Washington, running until Thursday.

·        There will be a meeting of the Council of the International Seabed Authority in Kingston, Jamaica.

·       Today is St. Patrick’s Day. We hope you are wearing something green to celebrate.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will hold a meeting with oil executives at the White House to discuss energy production in the face of falling prices for crude oil.

·       Supporters of Jair Bolsonaro will hold a mass rally against President Lula da Silva's government in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Housing Starts (February)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (January)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (March)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Business Inventories (January)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (March)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (January)/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Colombia Cement Production (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Senior Chinese official holds briefing on national economic performance of the first two months of 2025.  They will also hold a media briefing on government efforts to boost consumer spending.

·       The Raisina Dialogue begins in New Delhi, India.  The Dialogue is India’s premier conference on geopolitics and geoeconomics.

·       Britain's Net Zero Minister Ed Miliband visits for UK-China Energy Dialogue.

·       The US-ASEAN Business Council holds a media briefing with representatives from U.S. companies, diplomats and government officials as part of an American business delegation visiting the Southeast Asian nation to mark 30 years of U.S.-Vietnam diplomatic relations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (February)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

·       China House Price Index (February)/ Industrial Production (January)-(February)/ Retail Sales (January-February)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (January)-(February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       India WPI Food Index (February)/ WPI Fuel (February)/ WPI Inflation (February)/ WPI Manufacturing (February)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (February)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Services PMI (February)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  EU foreign ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East (focus on Gaza, Syria, and Iran) but will also discuss the increasingly tense relations with the US.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council will meet in Warsaw, Poland through March 18.  Minters will discuss the EU’s energy security architecture, the energy situation in Ukraine, and critical infrastructure.  On the sidelines of the meeting, there will be an informal meeting of EU Transport Ministers in Warsaw, Poland.

·       The Standing with Syria-Brussels 9th Conference will be held in Brussels.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania Kęstutis Budrys, at NATO Headquarters, in Brussels.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin hosts Tajik President Emomali Rahmon for bilateral talks in Moscow.

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will announce details of his welfare reform plan.

·       In Moscow, a preliminary hearing in the trial of ex-deputy defense minister Timur Ivanov accused of embezzlement.

·       Georgia court to deliver verdict in the case of ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili. He has been charged with fraud.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is awarded a  diploma from the Faculty of Law and Political Science of Université Aix-Marseille in Aix-en-Provence, France.

·       Italy Inflation Rate (February)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (January)

·       Romania Current Account (January)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (February)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (January)/ Core Inflation Rate (January)/ Core Inflation Rate (February)/ Current Account (January)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (January)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q1

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

Tuesday, March 18, 2025

Global

·       The UN Human Rights Council will meet to discuss the situation in Venezuela.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chile Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Canada Inflation Rate (February)/ CPI Median (February)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (February)

·       USA Housing Starts (February)/ Building Permits Prel (February)/ Export Prices (February)/ Import Prices (February)/ Redbook (March/15)/ Capacity Utilization (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/14)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

·       Brazil Business Confidence (March)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (January)/ Imports (January)/ ISE Economic Activity (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Defence Technology Summit will be held in Singapore through Friday. The Summit brings together representatives of government, industry, academia and think tanks to exchange views on defense and security developments. High-level delegates from U.S. companies including Oracle, Boeing and Palantir Technologies are set to attend.

·       A U.S. business delegation, including representatives from Amazon, Apple and Boeing, will visit Vietnam through March 20. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia’s Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Sara Hunter will speak at a banking conference in Sydney.

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (January)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (February)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (March/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels to discuss preparations for the March European Council meeting on March 20-21.

·       The German Bundestag (parliament) will vote on second reading of a €500 billion investment plan for defense and economy.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts French President Emmanuel Macron for Ukraine talks in Berlin, Germany.

·       The 5th EU-UK Parliamentary Partnership Assembly will be held in Brussels.

·       Euronext holds its annual conference.

·       The EU Tax Symposium will be held in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Italy Balance of Trade (January)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (January)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March)/ ZEW Current Conditions (March)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (January)

·       Russia PPI (February)

·       Belarus GDP (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Angola will host direct talks between the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Gutteres will meet with Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, Antonio Costa, the President of the European Council, as well as Roberta Metsola, the President of the European Parliament in advance of the Euro Summit on Thursday.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard will travel to Hawaii (where a large National Security Agency office is located), Japan, Thailand, India, and France for meetings with her counterparts.

·       In Bogota, Colombia, unions and citizens march for the non-approval in Congress of the reforms of Gustavo Petro's government.

·       The Mexico City Congress debates initiative to ban bullfighting in the capital.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins two days of meetings to discuss the economy and interest rates

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/14)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (March/14)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/14)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (March/14)/ / Net Long-term TIC Flows (January)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (January)

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q4

·       Argentina Full Year GDP Growth 2024/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Leading Indicator (February)

·       Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan meets to consider interest rates.

·       New Zealand Current Account Q4

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Machinery Orders (January)/Capacity Utilization (January)/ Industrial Production (January)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (February)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (February)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (March)

·       India M3 Money Supply (March/07)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Tripartite Social Summit will be held in Brussels. The main theme of the tripartite social summit will be ‘Bringing Europe back on track in a challenging geopolitical environment as an attractive, competitive and investment friendly location that protects and creates quality jobs.”  The Tripartite Social Summit is a forum for dialogue between the EU institutions at president level and the European social partners at top management level. The summit is co-chaired by the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission. The participating European-level social partners include: BusinessEurope, the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC), SGI Europe (association of enterprises with services of general interest), SMEunited (association of crafts and SMEs in Europe), Eurocadres (council of European professional and managerial staff).  Participants will discuss the following topics: strengthening the EU in a challenging geopolitical environment, bringing Europe back on track as an attractive, competitive and investment friendly location that protects and creates quality jobs.

·       The European Commission will formally release its 2025 White Paper on the Future of European Defense.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at V Observatorio Finanzas in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Frank Elderson gives a  keynote speech at the annual European Financials Conference organized by Morgan Stanley in London, UK.

·       Euro Area CPI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Labour Cost Index Q4/ Wage Growth Q4

·       European Union European Council Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (January)/ Total Credit (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

Thursday, March 20, 2025

Global

·       The BRICS 4th Agriculture Working Group meets in Brazil.

·       The BICCS 2nd meeting Committee of Energy Officials will be held in Brazil.

·       The International Olympic Committee elects a new president to succeed Thomas Bach. Seven candidates vying for the IOC's top job include Japan's Morinari Watanabe, president of the International Gymnastics Federation. World Athletics President Sebastian Coe is also in the running.

·       Today is the Vernal Equinox, the first day of spring in the northern hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       China will launch 100% retaliatory tariffs totaling more than $2.6 billion against Canadian agricultural products.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee announces their interest rate decision followed by a press conference held by Fed Chair Jay Powell.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem gives a speech at the Calgary Economic Development event.

·       Mexico Private Spending Q4

·       Canada PPI (February)/ Raw Materials Prices (February)

·       USA Current Account Q4/ Initial Jobless Claims (March/15)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (March)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (March)/ Philly Fed Employment (March)/ Philly Fed New Orders (March)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (March)/ Existing Home Sales (February)/ CB Leading Index (February)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March/14)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/20)/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/19)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Australia Employment Change (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Participation Rate (February)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (March)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (February)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Euro Summit will be held in Brussels, bringing together leaders from all 27 EU member states to discuss a stronger defense and security agenda as well as President Trump’s tariffs on EU goods and services.

·       The European Council will meet in Brussels.

·       The EU is expected to release an action plan to support Europe's steel sector.

·       Britain's Prince William visits Tallinn, Estonia to meet with British troops deployed as part of NATO's eastern flank reinforcement.

·       Bloomberg holds its Future of Finance Paris 2025 conference in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at the UCC Economics Society's Conference at University College Cork (UCC) in Cork, Ireland.

·       Germany PPI (February)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (February)/ SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       The Bank of England meets to decide on interest rates.

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (January)/ Employment Change (January)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (February)/ Claimant Count Change (February)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (March)

·       Italy Construction Output (January)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (February)/ Employment Growth (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ PPI (February)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (January)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (January)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/14)/ Central Government Debt (February)

·       Serbia Current Account (January)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (February)

·       European Union European Council Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar is expected to travel to London for meetings with Prime Minister Kier Starmer.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (February)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (February)/ Total Credit Growth (February)

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Inflation Expectations (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (January)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, March 21, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East (Gaza).

·       Today is World Downs Syndrome Day. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa and leftist Luisa González debate before the presidential runoff.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the 2nd Biennial Macroeconometric Caribbean Conference organized by the Central Bank of The Bahamas and the Indiana University Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research (CAEPR).

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       USA Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (March/21)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (January)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (February)

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (February)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Operation Freedom Shield – joint US-South Korean military exercises – begin in South Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (February)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Credit Card Spending (February)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (March)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Foreign Bond Investment (March/15)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/15)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Hong Kong Current Account Q4

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/14)

·       China FDI (YTD) (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (March)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (February)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       France Business Confidence (March)/ Business Climate Indicator (March)

·       Euro Area Current Account (January)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (March)

·       Greece Current Account (January)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (March)/ PPI (February)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Italy Current Account (January)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Consumer Confidence Q1

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (February)

·       Slovakia Current Account (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nowruz – the Persian New Year – is observed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Namibia Independence Day. President-elect Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah will be sworn into office, the country's first female president.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, March 22, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Curaçao holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 23, 2025 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentine President Javier Milei will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Israel. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The China Development Forum begins in Beijing, China.  The Forum brings together international business leaders and Chinese officials for meetings through March 24.

·       Pakistan celebrates Republic Day. The government will hold large military parades showing a wide array of weapons, including nuclear capable weapons systems.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania Presidential Election (1st Round)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey's main opposition party, the Republican People's Party, will hold presidential primaries ahead of Turkey's 2028 presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Tariffs On Canada, Japan, and China Go Live, Trump Meets With Netanyahu To Discuss Gaza and Iran And Then With Japan’s Ishida On China and US-Japan Trade, And EU Leaders Gather To Discuss Defense and Security Policy

President Trump promised he would bring tariffs on the US’s largest trading partners, Mexico, Canada, and China if they did not do more to curb illegal immigration and the flow of Fentanyl in the US, and he made good on his threat on Saturday. 

Many market participants we spoke to were hopeful a deal would be worked out in time and seemed surprised Trump moved on slapping 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10 percent tariffs on China.  Canada immediately responded with retaliatory measures, putting 25 percent tariffs on US exports to Canada, including beer, food products, and appliances.  Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is readying counter-tariffs, and China said it would sue the US at the World Trade Organization (WTO).

The big question now is: How long will this last?  The answer is anyone’s guess because it is not clear exactly how Trump will be satisfied by any of the three countries on illegal immigration and drug trafficking—what is the metric of success?  Hopefully, that will become clearer in the coming days, and a deal can be hammered out.

Looking ahead, Trump will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week at the White House to discuss the situation in Gaza, possible next steps, and overall policy toward Iran.  It is Trump’s first formal meeting with a foreign leader since returning to office. 

Later in the week, Trump will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the White House.  Japan has been both upset and nervous with Washington of late as former President Biden blocked Nippon Steel’s bid to buy US Steel on spurious national security grounds (Nippon Steel is suing the US government over the ruling, and the court case begins this week).  And Japan has been nervous about where they stand with President Trump vis a vi China as Trump officials have been talking about a “Grand Bargain” with China.   Ishiba is likely to raise the Nippon Steel issue with Trump in the hope that Trump could perhaps broker a deal that appeases the US steel union and allows Nippon to move forward with the acquisition.  He will also talk to Trump about Japan potentially helping to financially support the building of a $44 billion gas pipeline in Alaska and become a major gas purchaser.

In Europe this week, we are watching as EU leaders gather for a meeting to discuss EU defense and security needs.  UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is invited to attend, as is NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.  While no major policy announcements are expected to come from the meeting, it does show the EU is moving more aggressively to develop stronger defense and security capabilities inside the EU as well as bolster NATO in the face of growing Russian aggression.

Turning to the global economic reporting radar screen this week, in the US we are watching the jobs report out on Friday as well as ISM indices out on Monday and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday. 

Turning to Europe, the Bank of England meets on rates where the market is expecting another rate cut.  Other major reports out this week is the Eurozone CPI German industrial production, trade balance, and factory orders, and France’s industrial production and trade balance.

Finally, moving over to Asia, China – coming off the Lunar New Year holiday – releases the Caixin Manufacturing PMIs on Monday and Services PMIs on Wednesday.  Japan releases the December labor cash earnings figures and the Bank of Japan summary of opinions from their January meeting.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, February 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is traveling to Panama, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic.  The primary focus of this trip is to discuss illegal immigration, transnational criminal organizations, and drug trafficking.  But he is also going to focus on China’s growing role in the Hemisphere – particularly in Panama as President Trump has threatened to take back the Canal due to Panama allowing the Chinese company Hutcheson Whampoa to operate the Canal as well as ports at either end of the Canal.

·       Today is Groundhog Day – Is Spring around the corner or will we have six more weeks of winter?

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 3, 2025

Global

·       At the UN Security Conference, there will be a press briefing by Ambassador Fu Cong, Permanent Representative of the People's Republic of China and President of the Security Council for February on the agenda for the month.

·       OPEC+ holds a joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting in Vienna.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nippon Steel’s lawsuit against the US Federal Government for blocking their acquisition of U.S. Steel begins.

Economic Reports/Events

·        Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (December)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (January)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices (January)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Loan Officer Survey/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates/ Fed Musalem Speech

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (January)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI Final (January)/ Building Permits (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (January)/ Private House Approvals (December)/ Commodity Prices (January)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (January)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Business Confidence (January)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (January)

·       Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Current Account Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal EU leaders retreat in Brussels. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have be invited to attend.  According to a memo released in advance of the meeting, the leaders will be discussing defense policy.

·       The French Parliament will receive President Emmanuel Macron’s budget proposal.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Competitiveness and Trade Ministers in Warsaw, Poland through February 4.

·       The new Special Committee on the European Democracy Shield will hold its constitutive meeting to elect a chair and vice-chair and launch the committee’s activities. It will deal with the so-called “Democracy Shield” initiative, included in the Commission’s 2024-2029 political guidelines, and other initiatives designed to counter malicious interference in EU democratic processes 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ NEVI Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (December)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (December)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ New Car Sales (January)

·       Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (January)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI Flash (January)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Qatar Balance of Trade (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (January)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (January)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Tuesday, February 4, 2025

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu travels to Washington, D.C. to meet with President Trump, making him the first foreign leader to meet with Trump since being sworn into office.  The two leaders are expected to discuss the future of the hostage-release cease-fire deal in Gaza and how to coordinate policy on dealing with Iran going forward.

·       The US Senate Finance Committee will vote on the nomination of Robert Kennedy, Jr. to be Secretary of Health and Human Services.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Federal Reverse Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy to the Economics Department Special Lecture, Lafayette College, Easton, Pennsylvania.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (January)/ BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ PPI (December)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       USA Redbook (February/01)/ JOLTs Job Openings (December)/ Factory Orders (December)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (February)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Fed Daly Speech/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/31)/ Fed Jefferson Speech/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (January)

·       Colombia Exports (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China is expected to reveal data on domestic travel and spending over the Lunar New Year holidays as early as Tuesday, offering a barometer of consumer demand at a critical moment for the country's sluggish economy.

·       Today is National Day in Sri Lanka, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        New Zealand Building Permits (December)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (February/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·        European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery will participate on a panel on Women in Finance during St. Brigid Day celebrations at the Embassy of Ireland in London, UK.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Romania PPI (December)

·       France Budget Balance (December)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (January)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (December)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline to begin negotiations on “Phase 2” of the Israeli-Hamas ceasefire agreement to release hostages.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (January)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Liberation Day in Angola, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (January)/ M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)

Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Brief Economic Update and Bank Regulation” at the 2025 Kansas Bankers Association Harold A. Stones Government Relations Conference.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Do Non-Inflationary Economic Expansions Promote Shared Prosperity?” at Swarthmore College, Swarthmore, Pennsylvania.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks on economic perspectives before hybrid 31st Annual Automotive Insights Symposium.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in fireside chat before the Conference Board"2025: A Year in Preview" Conference

·       Brazil Industrial Production (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (November)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/31)/ ADP Employment Change (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)/ ISM Services Business Activity/ Employment/ New Orders. Prices/ PMI (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/31/ Total Vehicle Sales (January)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (January)

·       Colombia PPI (January)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra travels to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The purpose of the meeting is to discuss growing online fraud run by Chinese criminal syndicates aimed at Thai citizens as well as to seek China’s help in curbing negative rumors about Thailand’s safety for Chinese tourists. 

·       India's national capital territory goes to polls with a tense three-way contest expected between Delhi's ruling Aam Aadmi Party, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party and the country's main opposition Indian National Congress. More than 15.5 million people are registered to vote in the election for 70 constituencies of the Delhi assembly.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chinese financial markets reopen after the Lunar New Year holiday. 

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       New Zealand Unemployment Rate Q4/ Labour Costs Index Q4/ Participation Rate Q4

·       Australia S&P Global Australia Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (January)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (December)/ Overtime Pay (December)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Singapore Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (January)

·       China Caixin Composite PMI (January)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Full Year GDP Growth 2025

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (January)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January/24)

·       Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Services PMI (January)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Liberation Day in San Marino.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat and a Q&A at an event organized by Peterson Institute for International Economics "The euro area in 2025" in Washington DC,

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Business Confidence (January)/ Corporate Profits (November)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Real Wage Growth (November)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       France Industrial Production (December)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ Bundesbank Balz Speech

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ PPI (December)/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (January)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (January)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (January)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Unity Day in Burundi, celebrating ethnic unity between Tutsis and Hutus.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (January)

Thursday, February 6, 2025

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the future of payments at the Navigating the Future of Payments with Christopher Waller, Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President May Daly speaks on economic trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping the region and beyond before the Rotary Club of Oakland

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Great Britain BoE Interest Rate Decision/ Monetary Policy Report/ MPC Meeting Minutes/ MPC Vote Cut/ MPC Vote Hike/ MPC Vote Unchanged

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (January)/ Initial Jobless Claims (February/01)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q4/ Unit Labour Costs Q4/ Continuing Jobless Claims (January/25)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (February/01)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/31)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/06)/ Fed Waller Speech/ Fed Daly Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/05)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (January)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Board Member Naoki Tamura gives a speech to local leaders in Nagano, Japan.

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       South Korea Current Account (December)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (February/01)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/01)/ BOJ Tamura Speech/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (January)/ Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Deutsche Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel speaks at the inaugural BIS Chapultepec Conference in Mexico.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Germany Factory Orders (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (January)/ Bundesbank Nagel Speech/ Bundesbank Balz Speech/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Romania Retail Sales (December)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (January)

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (January)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (January)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (January)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (January)/ BoE Bailey Speech

·       Euro Area Retail Sales (December)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/31)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Israel Business Confidence (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Jordan PPI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa delivers the State of the Nation Address before the South African parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (January)

Friday, February 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Turks and Caicos Islands hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Brief Economic Update and Bank Regulation” at the 2025 Wisconsin Bankers Association Bank Executives Conference.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech entitled “Entrepreneurship and Aggregate Productivity” at the 2025 Miami Economic Forum, Miami, Florida.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (January)

·       Brazil Car Production (January)/ New Car Registrations (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (January)/ Employment Change (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Average Hourly Wages (January)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (January)/ Average Hourly Earnings (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Average Weekly Hours (January)/ Government Payrolls (January)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (January)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (January)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (January)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations (February)/ Michigan Current Conditions (February)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (February)/ Wholesale Inventories (December)/ Fed Kugler Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (December)/ Used Car Prices (January)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (January)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (December)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (January)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba travels to Washington to meet with President Trump.  The two leaders are expected to discuss mutual security issues in the Indo-Pacific including dealing with China.  Ishiba is also expected to make the case to Trump on behalf of Nippon Steel in their blocked bid for U.S. Steel.  Ishiba is also considering offering support for a $44 billion gas pipeline in Alaska as well as an offer to buy large quantities of the gas.  Ishiba will also be seeking Trump's cooperation in resolving a long-running dispute with North Korea over its abduction of Japanese citizens in the '70s and '80s.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Japan Household Spending (December)/ Coincident Index (December)/ Leading Economic Index (December)

·       Philippines Industrial Production (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (December)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/31)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at a conference "VI Encuentro Económico-Asegurador" organised by Mutualidad de Abogados de España in Madrid, Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (January)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (January)/ BoE Pill Speech

·       Turkey Inflation Report/ Treasury Cash Balance (January)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Current Account (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q4

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (December)/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Spain Industrial Production (December)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech

·       Greece Balance of Trade (December)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (December)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Full Year GDP Growth 2024

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Qatar Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ SACCI Business Confidence (January)/ SACCI Business Confidence (December)

Saturday, February 8, 2025

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

·        

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea celebrates Military Foundation Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Switzerland will hold a referendum on an environmental initiative called “For a responsible economy within our planet’s limits.”   It would aim to limit the environmental impact of Swiss consumption within ten years by aligning it with planetary boundaries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 9, 2025

Global

·         Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador holds presidential elections and parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Kosovo holds parliamentary elections.

·       Lichtenstein holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The Trump Cabinet Nominees Get Confirmation Hearings, Iran’s President Meets With Russian President Putin While Germany, France, and UK Meet With Iran Over Their Nuclear Program, And Earnings Season in the US Kicks Off

The geopolitical and geoeconomic radar screens will be full this coming week.  This is the last week of the Biden Administration with the U.S. Presidential Inauguration, one week from Monday.  The U.S. Congress is already moving quickly on many fronts in advance of the incoming Trump Administration, as almost all of President-elect Trump’s cabinet nominees will have their confirmation hearings held this week.  The hearings will give markets a richer sense of many of Trump’s policy proposals – how they will be carried out by the respective nominees, cost, timelines, etc.

We are anticipating fairly quick action on a number of them and the very real possibility that Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary-designate Scott Bessent will be confirmed by Inauguration Day, allowing them to be sworn into office the same day President Trump (which is the historical norm).

Outside the U.S. this week, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian travels to Moscow this week for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and to sign a new comprehensive cooperation agreement.  The agreement includes a new North-South Corridor, which allows for greater trade and energy cooperation between the two countries. 

While this is going on, diplomats from France, Germany, and the UK will meet with Iranian diplomats in Geneva, Switzerland, to again try to persuade Iran from further enriching uranium that could be used in nuclear weapons.  The three European countries were signatories to the 2015 nuclear pact (along with the US, Russia, and China), which President Trump exited in 2018.  It is unlikely Iran will agree, especially with President Trump coming back into office and the face of the multiple foreign policy and military setbacks Tehran has suffered in recent months (the massive degrading of their proxy militias Hamas and Hezbollah and the fall of Syrian strongman and Iranian ally Bashar al-Assad and his regime.

In Asia, Japan’s Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya will be conducting important meetings in South Korea, the Philippines, and the Island nation of Palau, seeking mutual security arrangements as China gets more active and aggressive in the region. 

Turning the busy global economic agenda this week, in the US markets – in their first full trading week of the New Year – are looking at the CPI release on Wednesday, the PPI print on Thursday, and the Fed’s publishing of the Beige Book in advance of the Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting on January 29.  Also out this week are the retail sales report and industrial production data.  All this comes as corporate earnings season kicks off in the US. 

Staying in the Americas, we would also note that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will be announcing a major new public-private sector plan to boost investment in Mexico.  Markets are looking for details of the plan to get a sense of the newly inaugurated Sheinbaum’s overall economic policy focus.

Looking at Europe, the European Central Bank releases its account of the last interest meeting.  The UK has CPI, PPI, and RPI reports coming on Wednesday.

Finally, looking at Asia, China has all-important trade data released on Monday and Q4 GDP figures on Friday, while Japan also releases trade data and bank lending information.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, January 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        First launch of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket from Cape Canaveral, Florida.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves concludes a two-day visit to Beijing to participate in the first UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue since 2019.  Accompanying Reeves will be a business delegation along with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.  The goal of the meetings is to increase Chinese investment in the UK and facilitate easier UK investment in China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Croatia holds its presidential runoff election. Incumbent President Zoran Milanović is due to face rival Dragan Primorac.

·       Germany’s Green Party officially launches its election campaign with Robert Habeck.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Comoros holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Monday, January 13, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (the situation in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Joe Biden gives farewell foreign policy speech at the State Department in Washington, D.C.

·       Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is expected to unveil a new public-private sector plan to help grow investment in Mexico.

·       In Peru, Prosecutors summon President Dina Boluarte to testify about her nose surgery (why did she keep it secret, and did she violate the law by not officially notifying the appropriate authorities that she was being put under for the surgery).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Car Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (December)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)/ Monthly Budget Statement (December)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (December)

·       El Salvador PPI (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya travels to Seoul, South Korea for bilateral meetings to discuss trade and security issues.  From there, he will travel to the Philippines and the Island nation of Palau.

·       Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.  The meeting comes less than two weeks ahead of Belarus’ presidential elections on January 26.

·       The Secretary General of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Hiroshi Moriyama, will travel to Beijing for meetings with senior Chinese officials. 

·       In Pakistan, Ex-prime minister Imran Khan expected to be sentenced in graft case.

·       The Asian Financial Forum begins in Hong Kong and runs through Tuesday. 

·       In Japan, today is “Coming of Age Day”, a national holiday that encourages those who have recently entered adulthood to become self-reliant members of Japanese society. 

·       In India, today is the first day of Kumbh Mela (Pitcher Festival) – the world’s biggest festival with an expected 450 million participants.  Today  Hindu holy men carrying swords and tridents will lead millions of devotees into the icy waters of the rivers Ganga, Yamuna and Saraswati during the first Shahi Snan (royal bath) in the northern city of Prayagraj. The event is held every 12 years.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (November)

·       Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (December)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (December)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Vehicle Sales (December)/ New Yuan Loans (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (December)/ Total Social Financing (December)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (November)

·       India Inflation Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Defence Ministers from Germany, France, Italy and Britain visit Poland for talks on the situation in Ukraine.

·       NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, exchanges with members of the European Parliament (MEPS) serving on the Committee on Foreign Affairs. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Construction PMI (December)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech

·       Turkey Current Account (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Auto Production (December)/ Auto Sales (December)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (November)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (December)

·       Romania Current Account (November)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (December)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account (November)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran holds talks with France, Germany, and the UK in Geneva to discuss Iran’s uranium enrichment program.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique swears in its new parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Current Account Q3

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (November)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). 

·       Today is the Orthodox Christian New Year.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Senate begins the confirmation process for Defense Secretary-nominee Pete Hegseth, Interior Secretary-nominee Doug Burgum, and Veterans Affairs Secretary-nominee Doug Collins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives opening remarks before 4th Annual  "An Economy That Works for All: Housing Affordability" event.

·       Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook before the Central Exchange.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (December)/ PPI (December)/RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (January)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/10)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya visits the Philippines.  The visit is aimed to strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries at a time when the Philippines is facing increasingly tense relations and stand-offs in the South China Sea with China.

·       South Korea’s Constitutional Court will hold its first hearing on the future of President Yoon Suk Yeol after he was impeached in early December. 

·       The National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultive Conference’s (CPPCC) Shanghai Committee hosts opening session of 3rd plenary in Shanghai.

·       Sri Lanka President Anura Kumara Dissanayake visits Beijing for bilateral meetings. It is Dissanayake’s first official visit to China and he is expected to discuss strengthening relations and Sri Lanka’s debt treatment.

·       Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin visits Vietnam for bilateral meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino gives remarks at a meeting of local leaders in Kanagawa, Japan.

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q4/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q4

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (January)/ Building Permits (November)/ Private House Approvals (November)

·       Japan Current Account (November)/ Bank Lending (December)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (December)/ BoJ Himino Speech

·       India WPI Food Index (December)/ WPI Fuel (December)/ WPI Inflation (December)/ WPI Manufacturing (December)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (December)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Finland hosts a Security summit for NATO countries bordering Baltic Sea.  This comes in the wake of several subsea cables being deliberately cut by Russia.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov holds annual press conference in Moscow.

·       French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou delivers general policy statement to Members of Parliament.  Bayrou is currently negotiating a tough budget deal with parliament.

·       Today is Novy God (Russian New Year).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the joint ECB/BoF/HKMA conference on "Europe, Asia and the Changing Global Economy" in Hong Kong.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the Financial Stability Law Forum in Zurich, Switzerland.

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (December)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (December)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (December)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech

·       France Budget Balance (November)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Italy Industrial Production (November)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ M1 Money Supply (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, January 15, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote in the morning linked to Libyan sanctions.  In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). 

·       OPEC publishes its monthly Oil Markets Report.

·       The International Energy Agency publishes its monthly Oil Markets Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Senate holds confirmation hearings for Brooke Rollins to be Secretary of Agriculture, Chris Wright to be Secretary of Energy, Pam Bondi to be Attorney General, Lee Zeldin to be Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Marco Rubio to be Secretary of State, John Ratcliffe to be Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Kristi Noem to be Homeland Security Secretary and Russell Vought to be Director of the Office of Management and Budget Director

·       NASA's Blue Ghost lunar lander launches from Cape Canaveral, Florida. The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will carry the lander.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Maryland Chamber of Commerce "Meet the State 2025: Making Maryland More Competitive" event.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari gives welcome remarks and participates in fireside chat before virtual Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 2025 Regional Economic Conditions Conference.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the Connecticut Business and Industry Association (CBIA) Economic Summit and Outlook 2025.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks before virtual Wisconsin Bankers Association Midwest Economic Forecast Forum.

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (October)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/10)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/10)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI (December)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (January)/EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (January/10)/NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Beige Book

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (November)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (November)/ Wholesale Sales (November)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (January)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladesh’s interim government is receiving a number of recommendations from reform commissions created to review the electoral system, judiciary, and policy.

·       Japanese company ispace launches second uncrewed moon mission from Merritt Island.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import & Export Prices (December)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (January)/ Machine Tool Orders (December)

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Loan Growth (December)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (January)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (November)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO military chiefs hold regular meetings in Brussels.  The agenda includes a discussion of the Euro-Atlantic and the war in Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat at the Global Macro conference of Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the 15th Spain Investors Day 2025 in Madrid, Spain.

·       Bank of England Executive Director Nathanaël Benjamin gives a speech at TheCityUK entitled “The future of stress testing.”

·       Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor gives a speech at Leeds Univeristy entitled “Inflation Dynamics and Outlook.”

·       EU Industrial Production (November)

·       Netherlands Balance of Trade (November)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (December)/ Full Year GDP Growth 2025

·       Romania Industrial Production (November)

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI Output & Input (December)/ Retail Price Index (December)

·       Hungary Construction Output (November)

·       France Inflation Rate (December)/ IEA Oil Market Report

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (December)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (December)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (November)

·       Serbia Building Permits (November)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (December)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique President-elect Daniel Chapo is sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

Thursday, January 16, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations in the morning on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will hold a press conference outlining his priorities for 2025.

·       The International Energy Agency publishes its report on nuclear power.

·       The International Labor Organization releases its report on World Employment and Social Outlook, Trends 2025.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Senate Finance Committee holds a confirmation hearing for U.S. Secretary of Treasury-nominee Scott Bessent while the Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds a confirmation hearing for Elise Stefanik to be US Ambassador to the United Nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (November)

·       Canada Housing Starts (December)/ BoC Gravelle Speech

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (January/11)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Import & Export Prices (December)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/10)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/16)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/15)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vanuatu holds snap parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (December)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Japan PPI (December)

·       Australia Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ Participation Rate (December)

·       Sri Lanka Services PMI (December)/ Manufacturing PMI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visits Moscow for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Swedish counterpart Ulf Kristersson, press conference follows.  Later, the German Social Democratic Party officially launches its electoral campaign with Scholz as its candidate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank publishes the Monetary Policy Meeting Account from the last interest rate meeting.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (December)/ GDP (November)/ Goods Trade Balance (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Construction Output (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ BoE Credit Conditions Survey/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (December)

·       Netherlands Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (December)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (November)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (December)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/10)

·       Serbia Current Account (November)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (December)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision (January)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q3

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, January 17, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council Military Staff Committee holds a meeting in New York.  The role of the Committee – which is a subsidiary of the Security Council – is to “advise and assist the Security Council on all questions relating to the Council’s military requirements for the maintenance of international peace and security.”  They are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza as well as various ongoing UN peacekeeping efforts around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (November)

·       USA Housing Starts (December)/ Capacity Utilization (December)/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/17)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (November)/ Foreign Bond Investment (November)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (November)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s largest car show kicks off in New Delphi.  India is the third largest auto market.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (December)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/11)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/11)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

·       China House Price Index (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision/ Business Confidence Q4/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q1

·       India Bank Loan Growth (January/03)/ Deposit Growth (January/03)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/10)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a virtual keynote lecture at the Crypto Asset Lab conference 2025 organized by the University of Milano-Bicocca.

·       Great Britain Retail Sales (December)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Euro Area Current Account (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI Final (December)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Spain Balance of Trade (November)

·       Germany Bundesbank Nagel Speech

·       Italy Current Account (November)

·       Belarus GDP (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (December)

Saturday, January 18, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Retreat will begin in Langkawi, Malaysia and runs through January 19.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 19, 2025

Global

·       Today is the Orthodox Christian Feast of the Epiphany.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President-elect Trump will hold a rally in Washington, D.C, in advance of his inauguration (tomorrow). 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The US Congress Certifies the 2024 Election, Venezuela’s Opposition Leader Meets with Hemispheric Leaders,  and Canadian PM Trudeau Resigns

January 5 - 12, 2025

We regret the late arrival of this week's Reg Week Ahead.   Technical issues prevented us from publishing on our normal schedule.  We have updated it to incorporate Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement today.

We hope you all had a wonderful New Year holiday.  The world returns to work this week following the holidays, and a lot is happening.  First, the US Congress convened in a joint session on Monday to certify the election of President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance.  The event was relatively quick – about an hour and a half – and much different than four years ago when riots broke out around and inside the Capitol.  

The new Congress was sworn into office last Friday and is busy getting to work.  We would note that Congress's schedule will be quite different this year as the US Senate has adopted a calendar for working five days a week and going for ten straight weeks without a break.  That is quite a change of pace for the Senate, which has worked three days a week for as long as we can remember, allowing members to return home Friday through Monday to meet with constituents.  The market should expect a lot of action in Congress this year at an unrelenting pace. 

Also this week, Venezuela’s exiled opposition leader, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, will continue a series of meetings throughout the Hemisphere with leaders to bolster support for his victory last July in the presidential elections.  Gonzalez will meet President Biden in Washington and then go to Panama, the Dominican Republic.  He recently met with Argentine President Javier Milei.   Meanwhile, Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, who by most independent accounts clearly stole the election in July, will be sworn in for a third term in office this coming Friday. 

Finally, we would note that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned from office early Monday morning.  Having served for nine years as Prime Minister, he faced low approval numbers and internal party dissent that led to the resignation of his Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, Chrystia Freeland.  Freeland is now considered a leading contender to be elected the new leader of the Liberal Party before elections in late October.

Looking at the global radar screen, this week's economic reporting schedule is relatively light.  In the US, markets will be looking at the US jobs report that will be coming out on Friday.  Also out in the US, this week will be the ISM services index on Tuesday and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report on Friday. And last but certainly not least, the Fed releases meeting minutes.

In Asia, China will release inflation data, official PMI prints, and the Caixin services PMI.  In Japan, wage data is out this week, and Bank of Japan regional branch managers are meeting to discuss wage growth. 

Moving to Europe, CPI reports will be released for the Eurozone, France, Germany, and Italy.  The European Central Bank’s consumer expectations survey will also be released on Tuesday.

Below is our weekly report of everything we are watching worldwide this coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

Sunday, January 5, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Monday, January 6, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress holds a joint session to certify the 2024 Presidential elections.

·       Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to resign.

·       President Joe Biden is expected to host a meeting with Venezuelan opposition leader Emundo Gonzalez Urratia at the White House.

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul in Seoul, South Korea.  Blinken will also travel to Tokyo, Paris, and Rome.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Financial Stability” at the Seventh Conference on Law and Macroeconomics being held in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Factory Orders (November)/ Total Vehicle Sales (December)

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (December)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (December)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Business Confidence (December)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (November)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Hesse CPI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (December)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (December)/ Business Confidence (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ M2 Money Supply (November)

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (December)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (December)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (December)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (December)

Tuesday, January 7, 2025

Global

·      Eastern Orthodox Christians celebrate Christmas today. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Greater Raleigh Chamber Economic Forecast: Launch 2025.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (December)/ PPI (November)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Canada Fed Barkin Speech/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Ivey PMI s.a (December)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Redbook (January/04)/ ISM Services PMI/ Business Activity/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices (December)/ JOLTs Job Openings (November)/ JOLTs Job Quits (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/03)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (December)

·       Colombia PPI (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan’s military holds combat readiness training sessions.

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will host Singapore Prime Minister Lawerence Wong for bilateral talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Building Permits (November)/ Private House Approvals (November)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (December)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       India Fiscal Year GDP Growth Prel 2025-24

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (January/07)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (December)/ Halifax House Price Index (December)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (December)

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (December)

·       Hungary PPI (November)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (December)

·       France Inflation Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ CPI Flash (December)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (December)/ Bavaria CPI (December)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Spain Business Confidence (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       For the first time in 13 years, Qatar Airways will resume flights to Damascus and Aleppo, Syria.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (December)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (December)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits Congo.

·       Ghana’s President-elect John Mahama is sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Current Account Q3

Wednesday, January 8, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets on the situation in Syria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Paris.

·       Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia visits the Dominican Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Lectures of the Governors Event in Paris, France.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (December)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (November)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/03)/ ADP Employment Change (December)/ Fed Waller Speech/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/04)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/03)/ FOMC Minutes/ Consumer Credit Change (November)/ Used Car Prices (December)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (December)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (November)

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (November)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Japan Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Services PMI (December)

·       India M3 Money Supply (December/27)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Conservative top candidate for chancellor Friedrich Merz holds a speech on the final day of the CSU annual meeting in Seeon, Germany.

·       Electronic Travel Authorization (ETA) scheme starts in UK for non-Europeans.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Household Consumption (November)

·       Germany Factory Orders (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (November)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ Current Account (November)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Final (December)/ Economic Sentiment (December)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)/ Industrial Sentiment (December)/ PPI (November)/ Selling Price Expectations (December)/ Services Sentiment (December)

·       Great Britain BBA Mortgage Rate (December)

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Serbia PPI (December)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon’s Parliament will hold a session to try and elect a new president.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ ABSA Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Tanzania Interest Rate Decision/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (November)

Thursday, January 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today the US federal government is closed in memoriam for former President Jimmy Carter.  A funeral service will be held today at the National Cathedral in Washington, D.C.

·       Following former President Jimmy Carter’s funeral service, President Joe Biden will fly to Rome for meetings with Pope Francis as well as with Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

·       Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia visits Panama.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will give a speech entitled “Reflections on 2024: Monetary Policy, Economic Performance, and Lessons for Banking Regulation” at te California Bankers Association 2025 Bank Presidents Seminar.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks on "Right Now, It's Putting One Foot in Front of the Other" before the National Association of Corporate Directors New Jersey Chapter Economic Forecast 2025.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Virginia Bankers Association/Virginia Chamber of Commerce Financial Forecast.

·       Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook before the Economic Club of Kansas City.

·       Brazil Retail Sales (November)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (December)/ Auto Exports & Production (December)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (December)/Wholesale Inventories (November)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/09/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/08)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (November)/ Overtime Pay (November)/ Foreign Bond Investment (December/28)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/28)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/04)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (December)/ Car Sales (December)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Elon Musk will hold a conversation with Germany’s far-right AfD's leader Alice Weidel on X.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the University of Edinburgh.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Brandenburg CPI (December)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (December)/ Saxony CPI (December)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (November)/ PPI (November)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Euro Area Retail Sales (November)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (November)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (November)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/03)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani visits Iran for bilateral talks.

·       Foreign Ministers from US, France, Britain, Germany and Italy meet on Syria in Rome.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits Chad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (November)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (December)

Friday, January 10, 2025

Global

·       The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) update on global temperatures.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro will be sworn into office for a third term. Maduro is widely seen as having stolen the election and has imprisoned thousands of opposition figures since the election in July.

·       President-elect Donald Trump is scheduled to be sentenced over cover-up of hush-money paid to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.

·       The US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in the challenge to the federal ban on TikTok.

·       First launch of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket.

·       The Detroit Auto Show begins and runs through January 20.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (December)/ Car Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (December)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (November)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ Participation Rate (December)/ Building Permits (November)

·       USA Non-Farm/ Government/ Manufacturing Payrolls (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Participation Rate (December)/ Average Hourly Earnings/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (January) / Michigan Current Conditions (January) / Michigan Consumer & Inflation Expectations (January) / WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/10)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (November)/ Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Economic Index (November)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (October)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (November)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ Consumer Confidence (December)

·       India Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/03)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (December)

·       China New Yuan Loans (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (December)/ Total Social Financing (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       First flight by Pakistan national carrier departs for EU after four-year ban.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Manufacturing Production (November)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Final Q3/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)

·       France Industrial Production (November)/ Household Consumption (November)

·       Spain Industrial Production (November)

·       Italy Retail Sales (November)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (November)

·       Greece Industrial Production (November)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (December)

·       Germany Current Account (November)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (November)

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ethiopia Stock Exchange launches operations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (December)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (December)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (December)

Saturday, January 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Kosrae Constitution Day, commemorating when the island nation instituted its constitution.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The German Social Democratic Party (SPD) congress to officially sign off on their candidate for chancellor ahead of the election.

·       The German  Far-right AfD party holds their party congress on their election program.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Croatia holds its presidential runoff election. Incumbent President Zoran Milanović is due to face rival Dragan Primorac.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Comoros holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

The Global Week Ahead

Peace on Earth and Goodwill to All Men – The World Goes (Mostly) Quiet for Christmas Week

December 22 - 29, 2024

It is shaping up to be a very quiet week around the world.  Hopefully, most of the world—or at least a good portion of the world—will enjoy a period of peace, with Christmas being celebrated on Wednesday and Hanukkah also beginning on Wednesday. 

We are watching three political events this week:  The first in Washington, D.C., the second in South Korea, and the third in Georgia.  In Washington on Monday, President Biden is expected to announce his decision to either approve or block Nippon Steel's acquisition bid for U.S. Steel.  During the presidential campaign when he was still a candidate, Biden vowed to block the deal to win the support of the United Steelworkers Union, whose leadership strongly opposes the deal (while most of its rank-and-file members support the deal).  Reports indicate the Defense Department, Treasury Department, and State Department support the deal – but the very few indications that have come from the White House suggest Biden will abide by his vow to the union and block the deal, which, strangely, will probably end up hurting the overall steel industry in the U.S. and likely severely hurt relations with Japan (not to mention put a chilling effect on foreign investment in the US).

The second event we are watching this week is in Seoul, South Korea.  The South Korean Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials is expected to summon recently impeached President Yoon for testimony.  Whether Yoon shows up is another question, as he has vowed to continue fighting against his recent impeachment and refused to accept any documents or summons from the Court.  But it keeps the country's ongoing democratic crisis alive.

The third event is in Georgia where recently appointed far-right presidential candidate Mikheil Kavelashvili is scheduled to be sworn into office on December 29.   Kavelashvili was appointed by the country's electoral college, which members of his ruling party dominate.  The country's current president, Salome Zurabishvili – pro-EU and opposed to Russia's war on Ukraine – has called Kavelashvili's appointment as president "illegitimate" and said she will not leave office.  Protests are expected across the nation.

This week's global economic radar screen will be almost as quiet as the international political week.  In Asia, the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia release minutes from their recent interest rate meetings.  In the U.S., the Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index and new residence sales, and we also get the durable goods order report.  In Europe, there really are no major reports out this week.

Below is our weekly report of everything else we are watching around the world this coming week.  We want to wish you a blessed Christmas and a joyful Hannukah.

Sunday, December 22, 2024:

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 26th Harbin Ice and Snow World Festival begins in Harbin, China.  The event spans more than 1 million square meters and features 300,000 cubic meters of ice and snow, drawing tens of thousands of tourists.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico.  It is one of the few meetings Putin has had with any EU leader in the last three years.  The two leaders discussed energy security issues, as Ukraine has pledged to stop the transit of Russian gas through its territory next month.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to open a number of transport/infrastructure facilities across Russia facilities via video link.  Putin launched auto traffic on highway 289 linking Krasnodar, Slavyansk-on-Kuban and Temryuk and the A290 Novorossiysk-Kerch motorway. Putin also took part in the ceremony of opening international airports in Magadan, Cheboksary, and Stavropol.

·       In Spain, the Loteria de Navidad, aka El Gordo, or the “Fat One”, annual Christmas lotto is held.  It is the world’s biggest lottery, which has no single jackpot but rather a complex share-the-wealth system.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Unity Day in Zimbabwe, marking the day in 1987 when two political parties, ZANU and ZAPU, came together to form ZANU-P.F.

Economic Reports/Events –

Monday, December 23, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Current Account (November)/ Foreign Direct Investment (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (November)/ Economic Activity (October)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (December)

·       Canada GDP (October)/ Manufacturing Sales (November)/ PPI (November)/ Raw Materials Prices (November)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (November)/ CB Consumer Confidence (December)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs

·       Colombia Business Confidence (November)

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s cabinet is expected to approve a new tax reform plan.  The plan is aimed at funding a scheduled defense budget hike via corporate and tobacco levies starting in 2026.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (November)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (November)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Albania, opposition parties are expected to block roads across the country, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Edi Rama.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Import Prices (November)

·       Great Britain Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Business Investment Q3

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (October)/ Current Account Q3

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (December)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (October)/ Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (November)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (November)/ M2 Money Supply (November)/ Total Credit Growth (November)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique’s Constitutional Court will deliver a final verdict on the outcome of the country’s October 9 general elections.  The losing opposition party of Venancio Mondlane says the election was rigged.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, December 24, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden is expected to decide on a recommendation by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) on Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire U.S. Steel.  During the campaign season, Biden told the United Steelworkers Union – who adamantly oppose the deal – “he had their back” and would block the deal.  However, there are no apparent national security concerns to the deal, putting Biden in a tough position to come up with a valid reason to block the deal.  Nevertheless, it is widely believed Biden will block the deal.

·       NASA’s Parker Space Probe will come closer to the sun’s surface than any other flight ever before – 3.8 million miles away from the surface of the sun.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chile PPI (November)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (November)/ Redbook (December/21)/ New Home Sales (November)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing/ Manufacturing Shipments/ Services Revenues Index (December)/ Money Supply (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/20)/ Building Permits Final (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

·       Malaysia PPI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds the inauguration of President-elect Maia Sandu.  Sandu won by a narrow margin despite Russian meddling in the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Current Account Q3

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Libya Independence Day, marking the day in 1952 when the country gained its independence from the UK and France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Israel Composite Economic Index (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Global

·       Today is Christmas Day. Markets in Europe, North and South America, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Indonesia, India, and Australia will be closed.  Markets will be open in Japan, mainland China, Taiwan and Thailand.

·       Today is the first day of Hannukah.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya will meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. The two diplomats are expected to explore ways to stabilize relations amid heightened tensions between the two countries.

·       South Korea’s Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials is expected to summon recently impeached President Yoon for testimony.

·       Today is Quaid-E-Azam Day in Pakistan, celebrating the birthday of Muhammad Ali Jinnah’s. He is widely seen as the founder of the country. It is a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kauo Ueda will speak at a meeting of Councilors of Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) in Tokyo.

·      Japan Coincident Index Final (October)/ Leading Economic Index Final (October)/ Foreign Bond Investment (December/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/21)

·      India M3 Money Supply (December/13)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Supreme Eurasian Economic Council (EAEU) meets in St. Petersburg, Russia.  The meeting will be chaired by Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.  The Council brings together the prime ministers of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia to discuss how to further economic integration and will focus on energy and industrial cooperation and the development of e-commerce.

·       King Charles delivers the annual Christmas message.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, December 26, 2024 

Global

·         Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        USA Initial Jobless Claims (December/21)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December/20)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/25)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/25)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (October)

·       Colombia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Taiwanese President Ma is expected to visit with students in Harbin and Sichuan, China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Housing Starts (November)/ Construction Orders (November)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (November)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Slovenia Independence Day, celebrating the day in 1990 when an independence referendum was held separating the country from Yugoslavia.

·       Today is Boxing Day.  The London Stock Exchange is closed as will markets in Hong Kong, Indonesia, and Australia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Spain PPI (November)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (December)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (November)/ Jobseekers Total (November)

·       Turkey Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (December)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/20)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (November)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, December 27, 2024

Global

·         Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Brazil IGP-M Inflation (December)/ Bank Lending (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (December)/ Net Payrolls (November)

·       USA Goods Trade Balance (November)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (November)/ Wholesale Inventories (November)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (December/20)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/27)

·       Paraguay Current Account Q3

·       Costa Rica Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Panama Current Account Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The South Korean Constitutional Court will hold the first public hearing on President Yoon’s impeachment.  Yoon was impeached by the South Korean parliament on December 14.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        South Korea Business Confidence (December)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (November)/ Jobs/applications ratio (November)/ Tokyo CPI (December)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Retail Sales (November)/ Industrial Production (November)

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (November)/ Current Account Final Q3

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (November)/ Current Account (November)/ Private Consumption & Investment (November)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Singapore Import/ Export Prices (November)/ PPI (November)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/20)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chaos Computer Club Congress begins in Hamburg, Germany.  It is the largest gathering of hackers in Europe.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Spain Retail Sales (November)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (November)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (November)/ Business Confidence (December)/ Real Wage Growth (October)/ Retail Sales (November)/ GDP (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (December)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (November)

Saturday, December 28, 2024

Global

·        Today is the Feast of the Holy Innocents.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 29, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Mongolia Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its freedom in 1911 from the Qing China dynasty.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Croatia holds the first round of its presidential elections.

·       Georgia will hold its presidential inauguration. Tensions remain high in the country, and mass protests are likely to be held in opposition to the swearing-in of Mikheil Kavelashvili.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (November)/ Private Bank Lending (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Chad holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

European Leaders Meet on Ukraine, Russia Lost Syria And May Also Lose in Africa, Germany Holds A No-Confidence Vote to Trigger Federal Elections, and the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan Each Meet on Interest Rates

December 15 - 22, 2024

While most of us look forward to the peace and joy (and quiet) of the holidays and New Year, the coming week will be busy on several fronts. European leaders will gather in Brussels this week to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss Russia's war on Ukraine and the unfolding events in Syria. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will join the EU leaders. Russia has ramped up its drone attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets and has begun deploying North Korean troops against Ukrainian forces, and Ukraine needs more military aid.  

Syria continues to be something of a question mark for Western leaders as Syrian rebels move to establish a new government following their shock defeat of Bashir al-Assad's regime. How the rebel coalition will rule and the true intentions of the more radical Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) leadership – which at one point was allied with Al Queda – remain somewhat unclear.

But as the West works to develop relations with the rebels, another unexpected outcomofAssad'ssss overthrow has emerged: It appears Russian military forces, responding to demands from the Syrian rebels, are packing up and leaving some of their bases in Syria -  but not all of them followingAssad'ssss defeat and fleeing to Moscow. As if Assad's defeat was not enough of a blow to Russian foreign policy, it turns out it is now seriously complicating Russia's aggressive and malignant African policy: Russia's airbases in Syria serve as major military supply transshipment centers foRussia's’s military support of Mali, Burkina, Faso, and Niger – all critical mineral-rich countries which experienced coups in the last year (all assisted by Russia), resulting in all three countries cutting ties with the West and allying themselves with MoscoRussia'ssss operational strategy with these countries is now at risk of collapsing.

As European leaders meet, Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold his annual press conference. This elaborately stage-managed event goes on for hours as Putin takes questions from Russians calling into the event. While all the questions are obviously scripted, the event usually reveals something new about Russia's thinking and intentions toward the rest of the world, and it is always worth paying attention to.   

Germany becomes the latest European country to move to snap elections this week, with a no-confidence vote scheduled for Monday. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz saw the collapse of his multi-party coalition last month, pushing him into running a minority government and pressuring him into calling the no-confidence vote.  

According to the most recent polls, the Christian Democratic Party/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) leads with 32 percent, with the far-right AfD in second place with 18 percenScholz'ssss Social Democrats (SPD) are in third place with 15 percent. 

The ultimate winner will likely be the CDU/CSU allying with the Green Party (12.6 percent) and pro-business, laissez-faire Free Democrat Party (FDP). Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it is all about three big central bank meetings: the Federal Reserve Board, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England. The Fed meeting is being closely watched to gauge how much they intend to cut in 2025 and their assessment of inflation (which reports this past week suggest may be creeping back up). Markets are expecting a 25-basis point cut this week.

The Bank of Japan meeting is proving more uncertain for markets. Will the BoJ hold or raise rates another 25 basis points? Will the Bank of England keep rates at 4.75% or cut them? Market consensus suggests they will hold. We also note that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give remarks on Monday that might offer further insights into the state of the European and global economies.

Regarding major economic data reports, markets are watching US retail sales and industrial production reports on Tuesday and PCE data on Friday. In Europe, the focus will be on UK labor market figures on Tuesday and inflation on Wednesday (right before the BoE meeting). Germany, battered of late by a regular stream of discouraging economic assessments, releases the ZEW Surveys on Tuesday along with the Ifo report and then consumer confidence on Thursday and PPI on Friday.  

Turning to Asia, China releases new home prices on Monday and its loan prime rate on Friday, while in Japan, trade balance data comes out on Wednesday, and the November CPI is out on Friday.

Below is our weekly report of everything else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, December 15, 2024

Global

·       The UN Internet Governance Forum begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and goes through December 19.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 3rd China Indian Ocean Region Forum on Blue Economy Development Cooperation meets in Kunming, China.  clean energy, climate change response, and disaster reduction are on the agenda, among other topics,

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)/ Tertiary Industry Index (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.K. officially joins the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) as the 12th member of the Asia-Pacific trade bloc. The general agreement removes trade tariffs between member countries and sets rules on matters such as cross-border investment, e-commerce, intellectual property, and labor. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Jordanian King Abdullah meets with the Saudi Arabian Defense Minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, to discuss the situation in Syria and Iran.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (November)/ M1 Money Supply (November)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (November)/ Wholesale Prices (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi is due to meet with his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame in Angola's capital of Luanda to discuss the ongoing conflict in eastern Congo.

·       Leaders from the West African bloc Ecowas will meet for an annual summit in Abuja, Nigeria. They are expected to discuss the departure of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso from the bloc after a 12-month notice period.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Monday, December 16, 2024

Global

·       The UN 2024 meeting of the States Parties to the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       The UN Economic Commission for Africa will hold an expert group meeting to consult on Africa’s critical minerals.

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem gives his annual address on the state of the economy and monetary policy at the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade in Vancouver, Canada

·       Canada Housing Starts (November)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (December)/ S&P Global Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Colombia Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (October)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra visits Malaysia for talks with counterpart Anwar Ibrahim. Security, economic ties, and regional cooperation will be on their agenda.

·       Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who took office in September, makes his first overseas visit to India, which analysts see as competing with China for influence in the Indian Ocean. Dissanayake will hold talks with the top Indian leadership, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Colombo's debt crisis is expected to be among the key topics of discussion. 

·       India’s Upper House will hold a Constitution debate. Parliamentary members want to debate the essence of ten keywords from the Preamble of the Constitution, speaking on themes like equality, justice, sovereignty, independence, democracy, and socialism.

·       Today is Independence Day in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        New Zealand Services & Composite NZ PCI (November)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)/ Machinery Orders (October)/ Tertiary Industry Index (October)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (November)

·       China House Price Index (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ NBS Press Conference

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       India HSBC Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)/ WPI Food Index (November)/ WPI Fuel (November)/ WPI Inflation (November)/ WPI Manufacturing (November)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Philippines Business Confidence Q4/ Cash Remittances (October)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (November)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

·       Sri Lanka Services PMI (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The German Parliament (Bundestag) will hold a vote of confidence on the current government, setting up an early federal election in February.  The current coalition essentially collapsed last month, creating a minority government.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  EU foreign affairs ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine, Georgia, the Middle East, and Belarus.

·       The EU’s 17th Accession Conference with Montenegro will be held in Brussels.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Energy) will meet in Brussels. Following the presentation of a report on the future of geothermal energy (by Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency), energy ministers will be invited to approve conclusions on the promotion of geothermal energy.  Ministers will also discuss an EU grid action plan.

·       The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) Leaders’ Summit takes place in Tallinn, Estonia, through December 18.  Hosted by Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal, it brings together the leaders of ten nations – Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom – to discuss cooperation within the JEF framework and set new plans for adapting JEF activities to the evolving security landscape. The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) is a coalition of ten like-minded nations with high readiness forces configured to respond rapidly to crises. The JEF can integrate into larger international operations, such as those led by NATO or other security coalitions, and can conduct the full spectrum of operations. It enhances the deterrence messaging of NATO and provides agile, credible, and capable forces supporting JEF Participant Nations interests.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with Montenegro Prime Minister Milojko Spajić at NATO Headquarters in Brussels to discuss security issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will hold a short press conference with Gediminas Šimkus, Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Lithuania, in Vilnius, Lithuania.  She will then give a keynote speech at the Annual Economics Conference: Pillars of Resilience Amid Global Geopolitical Shifts at the Palace of the Grand Dukes in Vilnius.  She will then participate on a high-level panel at the conference.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give remarks at the 8th anniversary of Madrid Foro Empresarial in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give a keynote speech at the CEPR Paris Symposium organized by Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Banque de France and Sciences Po in Paris, France.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Payments Victoria Cleland gives a speech on “The Future Roadmap of Bank of England’s RTGS Service” at the Fintech Connect Conference in London.

·      Ireland Consumer Confidence (December)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·      Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (November)

·      France HCOB Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)

·      Germany HCOB Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)

·      Euro Area HCOB Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)/ Labour Cost Index Q3/ Wage Growth Q3

·      Great Britain S&P Global Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)

·      Italy Inflation Rate (November)

·      Serbia Building Permits (October)

·      Belarus Industrial Production (November)

·      Poland Core Inflation Rate (November)

·      Slovakia Current Account (October)

·      Turkey Budget Balance (November)

·      Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q3

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the Day of Reconciliation in South Africa.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Wholesale Prices (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In the United States, electoral college electors meet in their states to vote for the new president and vice-president on separate ballots and confirm the results of the November 5 election, in which former president Donald Trump won a second term.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Mexico Private Spending Q3/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (November)/ New Housing Price Index (November)/ CPI Median (November)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (October)/ Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (October)

·       USA Retail Sales (November)/ Redbook (December/14)/ Capacity Utilization (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ Business Inventories (October)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/13)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Shanghai’s Vice Mayor, Hua Yuan, will attend an intercity forum in Taipei.  The highly controversial visit comes as China-Taiwan relations are in a highly tense state. Taiwan's Beijing-friendly former president, Ma Ying-jeou, is then scheduled to make his second trip to China this year on Wednesday, leading a group of students on a nine-day trip.

·       The Asia Development Bank-KDI Global Forum on Global Supply Chain and Sustainable Development in Asia and the Pacific is held in Tokyo, Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Singapore Balance of Trade (November)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (December/17)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Turkey to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the situation in Syria.

·        EP President Metsola will award the 2024 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought to María Corina Machado, the leader of Venezuela’s democratic forces, and Edmundo González Urrutia, the President-elect of Venezuela. A press conference with EP President Metsola and the laureates will occur after the ceremony.

·       The EU Environmental Council meets in Brussels. The ministers will discuss plastic pellet losses, end-of-life vehicles, and 2040 climate targets.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the European Council meeting that is taking place on December 19, the legislative overview for 2025, EU enlargement, and the future of Europe.

·       The EU’s 3rd Accession Conference with Albania takes place in Brussels.

·       Germany’s Green Party presents a draft of their electoral program.

·       Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court will hear an oral hearing on the use of Ramstein for US drone missions in Yemen.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give an introductory statement at the ECB Banking Supervision press conference on the aggregate results of the 2024 Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) in Frankfurt, Germany.  ECB Board Member Frank Elderson will then participate at the EDB Banking Supervision press conference on the aggregate results of the SREP.

·      Great Britain Unemployment Rate (October)/ Employment Change (October)/ Claimant Count Change (November)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (November)

·      Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·      Germany Ifo Business Climate (December)/ Ifo Current Conditions (December)/ Ifo Expectations (December)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)/ ZEW Current Conditions (December)

·      Italy Balance of Trade (October)

·      Euro Area Balance of Trade (October)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)

·      Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (December)/ Inflation Report/ Interest Rate Decision

·      Belarus GDP (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (October)

Wednesday, December 18, 2024

Global

·       The inaugural UN Framework Convention on Climate Change will meet to discuss the formation of the Southern Africa Alliance on Carbon Markets and Climate Finance in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Mexico Aggregate Demand Q3

·       US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets on Interest Rates/Fed Chair Powell press conference/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/13)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/13)/ Building Permits Prel (November)/ Current Account Q3/ Housing Starts (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December/13)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ ISE Economic Activity (October)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (November)/ Unemployment Rate Q3/ Leading Indicator (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Macau to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the city’s return from Portuguese to Chinese control.  The Chinese president would inaugurate Macau’s new administration, led by Sam Hou-fai, on Friday and inspect the city during his three-day trip.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        New Zealand Current Account Q3

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (December)/ Westpac Leading Index (November)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (November)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Western Balkans Summit will take place in Brussels.  An agenda has not been published yet.

Economic Reports/Events –

·      European Central Bank Board Member Philip Lane will participate in a fireside chat at MNI Connect event (Virtual).

·      Great Britain Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI Output (November)/ PPI Input (November)/ Retail Price Index (November)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (December)

·      Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (November)

·      Euro Area Inflation Rate (November)/ Construction Output (October)/ CPI Final (November)

·      Ireland Residential Property Prices (October)

·      Russia PPI (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day in Qatar, a holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (October)/ Inflation Rate (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Today is Republic Day in Niger, a holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, December 19, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Syria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Alphabet and Google CEO Sundar Pichai will travel to Mar-A-Lago, Florida to meet with President-elect Donald Trump.   Trump and Pichai are expected to talk about a wide-range of issues, but Pichai indicated in a recent interview AI will likely be the dominant issue of discussion.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (October)

·       USA GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3/ GDP Price Index QoQ Final Q3/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/14)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (December)/ Real Consumer Spending QoQ Final Q3/ Existing Home Sales (November)/ CB Leading Index (November)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (December/13)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (December)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/18)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (October)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (October)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/18)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (December)

·       El Salvador Current Account Q3/ Balance of Trade (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam hosts a massive defense expo to diversify supplies after decades of relying on the old Soviet bloc. Weapons manufacturers from the U.S., Israel and 25 other countries will be among 200 registrants displaying combat facilities and gear for naval, army, air force and cyber functions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q3/ ANZ Business Confidence (December)

·       Bank of Japan meets to discuss interest rates/Japan Foreign Bond Investment (December/14)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/14)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Interest Rate Decision

·       Thailand New Car Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold his annual news conference.  The event, which usually goes on for hours, features Putin taking direct – but prepared/planted – questions from Russian citizens. 

·       The European Council meets in Brussels.  EU leaders will discuss the situation in Ukraine and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will speak in person to the leaders.   UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will also attend.  The leaders will also discuss the situation in the Middle East and then hold a strategic discussion on how the EU can “consolidate its role on the international state and defend [its] interests and promote [its] positions.”

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travels to Bulgaria to visit the multinational battle group at the Novo Selo training ground and meets Bulgarian Defense Minister Atanas Zapryanov.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Bank of England Interest Rate Decision/ BoE MPC Vote Cut/ Hike/ Unchanged/ MPC Meeting Minutes

·       Netherlands Unemployment Rate (November)

·       European Union New Car Registrations (November)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JAN

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (November)

·       France Business Confidence (December)/ Business Climate Indicator (December)

·       Euro Area Current Account (October)

·       Italy Construction Output (October)/ Current Account (October)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (November)/ Employment Growth (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ PPI (November)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (October)/ Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/13)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (November)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, December 20, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (December)/ Federal Tax Revenues (November)

·       Canada Retail Sales (October)/ Budget Balance (October)

·       USA PCE Price Index (November)/ Personal Income (November)/ Personal Spending (November)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/20)

·       Paraguay PPI (November)

·       Colombia Interest Rate Decision

·       Argentina Current Account Q3/ Economic Activity (October)

·       Chile Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Ministers meet in Thailand for talks about the civil war in Myanmar and ways to resolve a nearly four-year-old conflict that has engulfed much of the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Credit Card Spending (November)

·       South Korea PPI (November)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (November)/ Core Inflation Rate (November)

·       Australia Housing Credit (November)/ Private Sector Credit (November)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (December)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (November)

·       Hong Kong Current Account Q3/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/13)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Great Britain Car Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (November)/ CBI Distributive Trades (December)

·       Netherlands Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Germany PPI (November)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (December)/ Central Government Debt (November)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (October)

·       France PPI (November)

·       Switzerland Current Account Q3

·       Greece Current Account (October)

·       Italy Business Confidence (December)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ Industrial Sales (October)/ PPI (November)

·       Poland Retail Sales (November)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (December)/ PPI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Consumer Confidence Q4

·       Serbia Current Account (October)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (December)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (November)/ Total Credit Growth (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (November)

Saturday, December 21, 2024 

Global

·       The Winter Solstice, the shortest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere, occurs.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo will host EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy Kaja Kallas, Italian premier Giorgia Meloni, Greece’s PM Kyriákos Mitsotákis and his Swedish counterpart Ulf Kristersson for the North-South Summit, a two-day security gathering in Saariselkä.

·       Romania’s Parliament convenes for the first time since the recent elections, which were nullified by the Romanian High Court.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Sāo Tomé Day, marking the day when the first Europeans arrived in 1471.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 22, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Spain, the Loteria de Navidad, aka El Gordo, or the “Fat One”, annual Christmas lotto is held.  It is the world’s biggest lottery, with no single jackpot but rather a complex share-the-wealth system.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Unity Day in Zimbabwe, marking the day in 1987 when two political parties, ZANU and ZAPU, came together to form ZANU-P.F.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Syria’s Simmering Civil War Explodes Again, France’s Government on Brink of Crisis, OPIC+ Meets to Possibly Approve Production Increases, Key International Chairs Change Hands, And A Big Week of Economic Data Releases

December 1 - 8, 2024

We are four weeks away from 2025, but 2024 is going out with a bang. In Syria, where the civil war had been at a relatively low boil this past year, all hell broke out when rebels (mostly aligned with radical Islamist groups) launched a massive surprise attack on the city of Aleppo, the most populous governate and city in Syria. They captured it with relative ease and continued to press their attacks south toward the city of Hama, hammering Syrian Army forces (who are supported by the Russian Air Force and elements of the Russian Army).

The reignited conflict brings a new element of uncertainty and risk to the Middle East and is seen as a significant blow to Russia and Iran, both of whom have been propping up and helping to defend the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (who was in Moscow when the offensive began and had to rush back to Damascus to deal with it).

Meanwhile, in France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen gave French Prime Minister Michel Barnier until Monday to come up with more concessions (Barnier had already acceded to earlier Le Pen demands to drop planned tax increases) in the hotly debated 2025 budget or face a no-confidence vote in parliament which would throw the government into crisis. Markets have been selling off in the face of what is likely to be a wild week politically in Paris.

Also, in Europe this week, NATO member foreign ministers will meet in Brussels for an important discussion on how to further aid Ukraine. The meeting comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested in a media interview this past week that an offer of NATO membership for territory currently under Ukraine’s control could end “the hot stage of the war.”  

Also this week, new leadership comes (or is about to come) to three important international seats:

• The US will take the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of December.

• South Africa officially takes the presidency of the G20 from Brazil for 2025.

• Poland begins laying the groundwork for its upcoming role as President of the European Union on January 1 and will continue until June 2025.

We would also note that OPEC+ meets this week to discuss possibly increasing production output—a highly contentious issue among the oil-producing states. The meeting was originally scheduled for December 1, but behind-the-scenes disagreements forced it to be postponed until December 5.

Looking at the economic radar screen this week, markets are watching the US jobs report released this Friday. Wall Street consensus estimates are roughly in the 200,000-plus range. Also, this week, the ISM Indices – manufacturing and services, on Monday and Wednesday, respectively.  And the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book are out on Friday.

In Europe, Germany—which continues to struggle economically—will release important factory order data, industrial production figures, and its trade balance. These releases come as Volkswagen workers begin to go on strike over upcoming layoffs and plant closures. 

In Asia, Japan releases both wage and consumption activity reports on Friday, while China releases its November PMIs and the Caixin indices.  

To top it all off, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give much-watched speeches on their views of the global economy on Wednesday. 

Below are all the other major geopolitical and market events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, December 1, 2024

Global

·       South Africa takes the presidency of the G20 Presidency.  South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will bring the media on Monday, December 2, on the South African agenda for the year.

·       The U.S. assumes the Chair of the UN Security Council for the month of December.

·       COP16 of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and goes through December 13.

·       Today is the first day of Advent.

·       Today is the first day of the meteorological winter int the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden departs for a trip to Angola.  The purpose of the meeting is to improve US-African relations but also highlight a U.S. backed railway project.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan’s President Willam Lai continues a tour of the Marshall Islands, Palau, and Tuvalu – all of whom have diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

·       Today is Kazakhstan’s First President’s Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Australia Commodity Prices (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds parliamentary elections.

·       Liechtenstein holds a referendum regarding a package of measures proposed by the Liechtenstein Employee Pension Foundation (SPL), directed at a state pension fund. 

·       Ursala von der Leyen formally begins her second term as European Commission President.

·       Today is Portugal Independence Day, a national holiday.

·       Today is Romania Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders will meet in Kuwait to discuss regional issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Freedom and Democracy Day in Chad, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 2, 2024

Global

·        The UN Security Council meets on the situation of children in Haiti.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly meets Baltic counterparts in Riga, Latvia.

·       Germany’s former Chancellor Angela Merkel presents her memoir 'Freedom' in a joint appearance with former President Barack Obama in Washington, D.C.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will participate in a conversation organized by the Queens Chamber of Commerce.

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ Business Confidence (November)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (October)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (November)/Fed Balance Sheet (November/27)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       East Timor's Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao makes an official visit to Malaysia for talks with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. The trip comes as the small country of about 1.3 million people prepares to join the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as its 11th member state. Malaysia chairs the bloc next year.

·       Nepali Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli visits China, casting off a tradition in which the Himalayan nation's leaders make India their first foreign trip after taking office. Oli is expected to request a waiver on a $216 million Chinese loan used to build the country's third international airport. The airport has not drawn any international flights since its opening last year.

·       The trial begins of Malaysian ex-prime minister Najib Razak on charges of taking bribes, money laundering linked to 1MDB scandal.

·       Today is Saba Day in Saba, celebrating the independence of the small island in the Netherlands Antilles.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (October)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (November)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (November)/ Building Permits (October)/ Company Gross Profits Q3/ Retail Sales (October)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (November)/ Business Inventories Q3/ Private House Approvals (October)/ RBA Jacobs Speech/ Commodity Prices (November)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q3/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (November)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Business Confidence (November)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (November)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Wholesale Prices (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces a deadline set by French opposition leader Marine Le Pen to offer new, farther reaching budget concessions or face a no-confidence vote which could topple the government.

·       German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visits China through December. On Sunday, before departing for Beijing, Baerbock strongly criticized China for supporting Russia in its war on Ukraine.

·       German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius visits Norway for talks with Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram.

·       Romania’s top court is expected to rule on whether to annul the first round of presidential elections (the second round is scheduled for December 8).   The challenge to the results were brought after allegations of external interference in the elections by Russia.

·       Germany’s IG Metall union calls for possible warning strikes in Volkswagen factories across the country.

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will give his annual foreign policy speech at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet in the City of London.  Earlier in the day, Starmer hosts Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis for bilateral talks.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Employment and Social Policy) meets in Brussels through December 3.  Ministers will discuss EU demographic challenges, labor and skills shortages in the EU, and the traineeships directive.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an EIB Group Climate and Environment Advisory Council in Luxembourg.

·       Bank of England Director of Financial Stability Strategy and Risk Lee Foulger gives a speech at  the Bloomberg UK Policy Series in London.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Average Weekly Earnings Q3

·       Netherlands Retail Sales (October)/ NEVI Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (November)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (November)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (September)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (October)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ New Car Sales (November)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will give testimony at his ongoing corruption trial.  He is the first sitting Israeli prime minister to testify in a public corruption trial.

·       Today is UAE National Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The SenHabitat 2024 begins in Dakar, Senegal bringing together investors and government officials focused on real estate, housing, and construction

·       Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (November)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (November)

Tuesday, December 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives a speech on the Labor Market and Monetary Policy at the Detroit Economic Club in Detroit, Michigan.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to give closing remarks before hybrid Midwest Agriculture Conference entitled "The Changing Landscape for Agricultural Inputs."

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (October)/ Gross Fixed Investment (September)

·       USA Redbook (November)/30/ JOLTs Job Openings (October)/ JOLTs Job Quits (October)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (December)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/29)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (November)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       US Space Force opens a unit at Yokota Air Base in Japan.

·       The 20th Tokyo-Beijing Forum takes place in Tokyo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Import Prices Q3/ Export Prices Q3/ Terms of Trade Q3/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (December/03)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (November)

·       Australia Current Account Q3/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q3

·       Hong Kong: The British Chamber of Commerce in China will release its annual business sentiment survey, followed by the German chamber's confidence survey. 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO holds a two-day foreign ministers meeting in Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East.  NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will also receive His Majesty King Abdullah II ibn Al Hussein of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Health) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will adopt a recommendation on smoke- and aerosol-free environments, focusing on key outdoor areas like playgrounds and restaurant terraces, as well as emerging tobacco and related products such as e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products and heated herbal products.  The Council will also discuss the state of play of the revision of pharmaceutical legislation in the EU, focusing on regulatory incentives. The package aims to improve security of supply of medicines and prevent shortages.

·       The Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani ,begins a two-day state visit, accompanied by his first wife, Sheikha Jawaher bint Hamad bin Suhaim Al Thani.  King Charles and Queen Camilla will host the visitors at Buckingham Palace, and Starmer will meet the Emir for bilateral talks in Downing Street.

·       FT Global Banking Summit opens in London. Speakers across the two-day event include Barclays chief executive CS Venkatakrishnan and Deutsche Bank chief executive Christian Sewing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded conversation with Daniele Manca at GeoEconomy Talk organized by RCS Academy, the Business School of RCS MediaGroup, in collaboration with Il Corriere della Sera in Milan, Italy.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (November)

·       Romania PPI (October)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (November)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (November)

·       France Budget Balance (October)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q3

·       Spain Unemployment Change (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       Ireland Construction Output Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (November)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (November)

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q3

Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Global

·       The UN General Assembly meets on the situation in Gaza. 

·       The OECD releases its Economic Outlook.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates in a moderated discussion at the New York Times DealBook Summit in New York.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem to speak before the Bloomberg/Global Interdependence Center College of Central Bankers Symposium.

·       Brazil Industrial Production (October)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       USA Fed Beige Book/MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/29)/ ADP Employment Change (November)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)/ ISM Services PMI (November)/ ISM Services Business/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices Activity (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (November/29)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q3/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       Colombia Exports (October)/ PPI (November)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry & Construction & Manufacturing Index (November)/ Judo Bank Services PMI Final (November)/ Judo Bank Composite PMI Final (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q3/ GDP Chain Price Index Q3/ GDP Final Consumption Q3

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (November)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (November)

·       China Caixin Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       India HSBC Services & Composite PMI Final (November)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK City minister and Economic Secretary to the Treasury Tulip Siddiq and Chinese ambassador to the UK Zeguang Zheng speak at the OMFIF China-UK Investor forum in London.

·       The European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee will hear from Christine Lagarde, first in her capacity as President of the European Central Bank and then as Chair of the European Systemic Risk Board. Economic governance, geo-political risks, and the cost of living are all expected to feature prominently in the discussions. The hearings will be followed by another debate with Dominique Laboureix, Chair of the Single Resolution Board 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Financial Times Global Boardroom event in London.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a virtual speech followed by a Q&A session at the 7th conference on behavioral financial regulations and policies organized by Herbert Simon Society in Milan, Italy.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       France HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)

·       Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)/ PPI (October)

·       UK S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Final (November)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (November)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (November)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Investment Forum begins in Rabat, Morocco and runs through Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (November)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (November)/ Consumer Confidence Q4

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (November)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Nigeria Balance of Trade (July)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Balance of Trade (September)

Thursday, December 5, 2024 

Global

·       Ministers from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (Opec+) meet in Vienna, Austria.  The meeting was originally scheduled for December 1 but was moved to today. Ministers are going to consider reviving halted production beginning in January.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak before in-person Charlotte Regional Business Alliance 2024 Economic Outlook event.

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Initial Jobless Claims (November)/30/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (November/29)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/04)

·       Brazil Car Production (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Ivey PMI s.a (November)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Malaysia Motor Show begins in Kula Lumpur.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Toyoaki Nakamura gives a speech in Hiroshima to local business leaders.

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November)/30/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November)/30/ BOJ Nakamura Speech

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (November)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (October)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Transport) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will be asked to approve the Council’s position (‘general approach’) on several legislative files: the directive on driving disqualifications, which forms part of the ‘road safety’ package, the regulation on passenger rights in the context of multimodal journeys and the regulation on enforcement of passenger rights in the EU. The Council will also hold a policy debate on air passenger rights and take note of a progress report on the combined transport directive. 

·       In Lyon, France, the Festival of Lights will be held. Originally aimed at expressing gratitude towards Mary, mother of Jesus, kicks off with hundreds of thousands of spectators expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Executive Director Victoria Cleland gives a speech at the Fintech Connect event in London on ‘The future road map of Bank of England’s real time gross settlement (RTGS) service.’

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives a speech at the IIF Colloquium on European Banking Regulation & Supervision in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Germany Factory Orders (October)/ HCOB Construction PMI (November)

·       Romania Retail Sales (October)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       France Industrial Production (October)/ HCOB Construction PMI (November)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Spain Industrial Production (October)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (November)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (November)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (November)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (November)/ BoE Greene Speech

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (October)

·       Ireland Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GNP Q3

·       Serbia PPI (November)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/29)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Jordan PPI (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account Q3

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Friday, December 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Mercosur Summit begins in Uruguay, bringing leaders from the South American trading bloc together to discuss trade.  Last week, the French parliament dealt a tough blow to a potential EU-Mercosur agreement, siding with French farmers who opposed the deal and voting 484 to 70 against signing a deal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech at the Missouri Bankers Association Executive Management Conference (Virtual)

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to participate in "Emerging Technology and the Economy" conversation hosted by the Hoover Institution.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (November)

·       Mexico Auto Exports & Production (November)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ Full & Part Time Employment Chg (November)/ Average Hourly Wages (November)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (November)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (October)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (November)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (November)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ Non-Farm and Manufacturing and Government Payrolls (November)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/Michigan Current Conditions Prel (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/06)/ Consumer Credit Change (October)/ Used Car Prices (November)/ Total Vehicle Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (October)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (October)/ Household Spending (October)/ Overtime Pay (October)/ Coincident Index Prel (October)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (October)

·       Australia Home Loans (October)/ Investment Lending for Homes (October)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (November)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/29)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia's President Vladimir Putin visits Minsk, Belarus to validate security concept of the Russian-Belarusian Union.

·       The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) begins a two-day ministerial meeting in Malta.  Foreign ministers will meet to review and address the security situation in the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian area, as well as to evaluate the Organization's work in all its fields of activity.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Telecom) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will approve conclusions on the EU Agency for cybersecurity (ENISA) and on the Commission’s White Paper ‘How to master Europe’s digital infrastructure needs?’. They will also hold a policy debate on the digital decade 2030 objectives and targets in light of recent technological changes. Over an informal lunch, ministers will discuss ways to improve EU coordination and enhance the effectiveness of actions within the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). Finally, the incoming Polish presidency will inform the Council on its work program for the first semester 2025.

·       Today is Finland Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Household Consumption (October)

·       Germany Industrial Production (October)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (November)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (November)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (October)/ Budget Balance (November)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Current Account (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Italy Retail Sales (October)

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Employment Change Q3

·       Greece Balance of Trade (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) holds its Manama Dialogue in Bahrain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Ghana General Elections

Saturday, December 7, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The 22nd Doha Forum on Democracy, Development and Free Trade begins and runs through December 8. The theme of this year’s two-day event is “The Innovation Imperative.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ghana holds both presidential and parliamentary elections.  However, the government is facing an unprecedented shutdown in advance of the election unless they pass a provisional budget in advance of the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 8, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds  its presidential election run-off.  

·       Notre-Dame Cathedral official reopens to the public after a catastrophic fire five years ago.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.