GeoData

This is our weekly collection of important data points we believe may impact the future geopolitical outlook.  We hope you find it useful.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

Japan’s Answer to The Growing Shortage of Truck Drivers (Due to the Nation’s Spiraling Population Decline)? Build a 310-mile-long Conveyor Belt

The Japanese government has announced plans to build a 310-mile-long conveyor belt—an “Autotflow Road”—to move freight to and from Tokyo and Osaka. The belt would move the equivalent of freight that 25,000 trucks (and, thus, 25,000 drivers) move per day.

Why are they doing this? Japan’s dire population decline, it is expected that the number of truck drivers will shrink from 660,000 to 480,000 by 2030. 

It should be noted the government is also making the point that they believe it will help reduce greenhouse emissions and ease Tokyo’s notorious traffic congestion. The expected cost would be approximately $500 million per 6-mile stretch.

But Japan is not the only country planning giant conveyor belt systems. In the UK, the British company Magway is planning a system that would send goods around London on a “magnetic surfboard” - a levitating magnetic field in hundreds of miles of narrow tunnels and pipes. And Switzerland is working on the Cargo Sous Terrain, a 310-mile network of underground freight tunnels. The first 43-mile section between Zurich and Häkingen is expected to open in 2031 and the rest by 2045.

Love Don’t Live Here No More: Majority of Chinese and Saudis Dislike Russia. Indians are Not Too Fond of Russia, Either.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been focusing heavily on winning the hearts and minds of the Global South. We all saw his recent visits to North Korea and Vietnam, and he has been meeting with other leaders in Moscow on a tear. But this does not seem to be improving his or Russia’s overall approval ratings around the world. 

Three examples: In a new poll released by Morning Consult, in China - which is seeing significant economic benefit from increased trading due to the Ukraine War - Russia comes in the low 40 percent approval range. That is down from a high of more than 75 percent in 2022. In Saudi Arabia - which Putin has tried but failed to build relations with - Russia comes in below 25 percent approval ratings.  Even India - which, like China, has benefitted from a significant uptick in trade with Russia, particularly in the oil sector - seems to not like Russia much, coming in just below 50 percent. 

The one factor that emerges as to why Russia is not building a fan base in the Global South is the invasion of Ukraine. All the numbers started to tank after Putin ordered the attack. 

Corporate Earnings, the U.S. 2024 Elections, and The Constancy of Political Risk Concerns in the C-Suite

Political risk continues to be a consistent issue of focus among corporate leaders and in corporate earnings and projections. The New York Times Dealbook had an interesting little piece on how often the upcoming U.S. presidential elections are being mentioned in earnings calls.

 In Q2, election-related issues have come up 364 times (per data provider AlphaSense.) - that’s more than in 2016 when the topic was raised 307 times but, as Dealbook points out, is below the rate that led to the all-time high of 902 times in 2020. 

But we still have another reporting quarter to go - which I suspect will spike this number up considerably. At the very least, it shows that political risk is embedded in the corporate strategies of most major corporations (and that is a smart and good thing).

The Global Battle for Chip Supremacy is Really a Battle for High-Skilled Workers

In 2022, the U.S. Congress passed the CHIPS Act, authorizing $280 billion in new funding to encourage domestic research and manufacturing of semiconductors.  So far, $30 billion in direct subsidies and $25 billion in loans have been handed out to support roughly $350 billion in investments.   As the Semiconductor Industry Association pointed out, this is likely to trip U.S. chipmaking by 2023, taking the output of advanced logic chips from zero in 2022 to 28 percent of total global production. 

But the big question hanging over the ultimate success of this massive effort is where is the U.S. going to get the workforce.  As Bloomberg recently reported, “To build and run those fabs, however, companies need workers the US doesn’t have. Shortages of skilled installers of hyper-precise chipmaking equipment have already delayed projects. The number of Americans studying in relevant graduate programs has been flat for 30 years. A third of current fab workers are 55 and older, and more than half say they’re eager to quit. The Semiconductor Industry Association says chipmakers will face a shortfall of 67,000 skilled workers by 2030.”

Congress, anticipating this challenge, appropriated (only) $200 million to help build training and educational programs to help build the workforce.  But that will not satisfy the challenge as current trends in the various programs of study necessary for chipmaking show.

What to do?  Currently, there are two options, and they are not mutually exclusive: 1. Pour more money into programs for advanced degrees in the necessary fields for chip manufacturing jobs, and 2. Significantly hike the number of H-1B visas, allowing highly-skilled foreign workers into the U.S. Neither option is politically easy to achieve, but pressure will be growing in the next few years to move on both options.

Russia is Selling Ukraine’s Grain. And Among the Country’s They Sell It To Are Two NATO Members

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) recently investigated of what happened to millions of tons of Ukrainian wheat, grain, and peas seized by Russian forces. Incredibly, they discovered Russia sold it mostly to Iran, Azerbaijan, and Syria as well as Spain and Turkey - both NATO members. Using satellite photography provided by NASA’s Harvest Program, At least 6.4 million tons of Ukrainian-grown wheat alone was harvested by Russia and sold. 

As RFE/RL explains, “…the European Union has banned over 91.2 million euros ($97.6 million) worth of Russian imports but has avoided barring Russian-EU trade in food and health products “in order not to harm the Russian population,” an EU explainer states. Clearly, Moscow is now taking advantage of this as a further money-maker to fund the war.

The Global Week Ahead

June 30 - July 7, 2024

Elections are again dominant on the global stage this coming week.  As of this writing, the French far-right National Rally Party, led by Marine Le Pen, has scored a massive victory in parliamentary elections.  A run-off election will be held next Sunday to determine how significant the margin of victory will be.  But it appears it will be just short of an outright majority as French President Emmanuel Macron’s alliance of centrist parties are looking to potentially form an alliance with the far-left bloc to blunt the National Rally’s power in parliament.

Also this week,  the UK holds parliamentary elections this Thursday .  Looking at polls, the Labor Party is positioned to score a massive win – perhaps by the biggest margins in UK history.  The Economist is estimating Labor could win as many as 434 seats – far more than the 334 seats needed to hold a majority.  The Conservatives could shrink to as little as 106 seats from their current 365 seats.

But the most watched election-related event this week is not an actual vote but rather what President Biden will do after his disastrous debate performance.  We do not believe President Biden will withdraw despite growing pressure, as most senior Democratic leaders (former Presidents Obama and Clinton, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, etc.) have rallied to support the President staying in the race.  However, the debate over the President’s mental and physical abilities and whether he should stand down will not go away any time soon and will likely intensify as Republicans get ready for the Republican Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 15.

Elsewhere in the world, the EU is set to make a significant decision this week.  The EU will formally select its next Commission President, with current President Ursula von der Leyden likely to retain her position.  This decision comes at a crucial time as Hungary, a long-standing antagonist of EU policies (especially its support for Ukraine), assumes the six-month chair of the European Union.  EU leaders are actively strategizing to counter Hungary's potential efforts to implement policies that could undermine current EU's consensus policies.

We also note another change taking place this week  in another important chair: At the United Nations today, Russia takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of July.

On the global economic radar screen, the big event this week will be the European Central Banks Conference, which will be held in Sintra, Portugal.  Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell and several other major central bank chiefs will be there, too, speaking on panels and likely giving important insights on global economic policy.

In the US, markets will look to the Fed releasing the June FOMC meeting minutes and the JOLTs and ADP data on Tuesday and Wednesday, leading into the overall jobs numbers report on Friday.  Looking at Europe, Germany, Italy, France, and Spain release CPI reports.  In Asia, China releases June PMIs and the Caixin indices, which will give a clearer indication of whether the country's growth is returning to normal.  And Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, and Taiwan are due to release their June inflation reports.

Below is everything else we are watching happening around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, June 29, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·      Uruguay will hold primary elections ahead of its Oct. 27 general election

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (June)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (June)/ NBS General PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The First Round of parliamentary voting begins in France.

·       Belgium’s six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union ends.  Hungary takes the chair tomorrow, July 1.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Qatar will host the third U.N.-led meeting of special envoys to Afghanistan in Doha through July 1, and the Afghan Taliban will attend.

·       Egypt will host the Egypt-EU Investment Conference in Cairo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q1/ M3 Money Supply YoY MAY/ Private Bank Lending YoY MAY

·       Israel Composite Economic Index MoM MAY

Monday, July 1, 2024

Global

·       Russia assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council for the month of July.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Panama will inaugurate Jose Raul Mulino as president.

·       In Mexico, judicial branch workers are expected to go on strike to show their opposition to President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s legal reform plan that would make all judges elected positions.

·       The US Congress is out this week for the Independence Day holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Business Confidence JUN

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity YoY MAY

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Balance of Trade JUN/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ ISM Manufacturing PMI JUN/ ISM Manufacturing Employment JUN/ Construction Spending MAY

·       Colombia Business Confidence MAY

·       El Salvador Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

·       Peru Inflation Rate YoY JUN

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong marks 27 years since it was returned to Chinese rule.  Meanwhile, on the mainland, Monday is the first anniversary of an updated counterespionage law that expanded the definition of spying and gave authorities sweeping new powers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final JUN/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM JUN/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM JUN

·       South Korea Exports/ Imports/ Balance of Trade JUN

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Inflation Rate YoY JUN/ Tourist Arrivals YoY MAY

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final JUN/ Consumer Confidence JUN

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Business Confidence Q2/ Consumer Confidence Q2

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Singapore Bank Lending MAY

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final JUN

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Inflation Rate YoY JUN

·       Thailand Retail Sales YoY APR

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate YoY JUN/ Wholesale Prices YoY JUN/ Balance of Trade JUN

·       Sri Lanka Current Account Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Hungary assumes the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU.

·       The First payment to Ukraine of Russa’s windfall profits made from frozen Russian assets in the European Union are expected to be made.

·       Armenia and Azerbaijan will submit work regulations to their governments for approval to resume operation of the bilateral border demarcation commission.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory speech at the opening reception of the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence JUN/ AIB Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Prel JUN

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Consumer Confidence Q2

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices YoY JUN/ BoE Consumer Credit MAY/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final JUN/ M4 Money Supply MoM MAY/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending MAY

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final APR/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Switzerland Retail Sales YoY MAY

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI JUN/ ECB Forum on Central Banking

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY JUN/ Bavaria CPI YoY JUN/ Brandenburg CPI YoY JUN/ Hesse CPI YoY JUN/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY JUN/ Saxony CPI YoY JUN/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel JUN

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Unemployment Rate MAY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.N. ban on Iranian production of IR-6 and IR-8 centrifuges will expire.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply YoY MAY

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI JUN

Tuesday, July 2, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell will participate in a policy panel discussion at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking 2024, Sintra, Portugal.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Thailand, election authorities will announce the names of 200 new senators who passed a final round of scrutiny, after an obscure process in which 20 professional groups nominated and voted for their peers without input from the general public. While the new Senate will not have a say in future votes for prime minister it will maintain oversight of the executive

branch and a role in appointing members of independent organizations such as the election and anti-corruption commissions. Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q2/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q2

·       South Korea Inflation Rate YoY JUN

·       Philippines PPI YoY MAY

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden is expected to be formally chosen for another term.

·       In the Italian city of Siena, the Il Palio bareback horse race - where riders race each other through the center of the city – takes place.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos chairs Session 1 "The rise and fall of inflation in the euro area – past, present and future" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson chairs Session 2 "The economics of biodiversity at ECB Forum on Central Banking" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

·       European Central bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel chairs Panel 1 "Geopolitical shocks and inflation" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, July 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Grenada hosts a the 47th Regular Meetings of the Conference of CARICOM (Leaders from Caribbean Community). 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate on “Panel 2: Drivers of Equilibrium Interest Rates" before hybrid European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2024.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization meets in Kazakhstan.  The Organization is a China-led grouping considered part of Beijing's effort to promote an alternative world order. But there is no shortage of friction between the nine full members, which include India and Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and several Central Asian states.  However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not expected to attend.

·       Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Chinh will travel to Seoul, South Korea to meet with Prime Minister Han Duck-soo.  Chinh will also meet with business leaders to encourage further investment in Vietnam.

·       Indonesia's Ministry of National Development Planning hosts the Green Economy Expo in Jakarta from Wednesday to Friday. The CEO of energy giant Pertamina and the head of fertilizer maker Pupuk Indonesia are among those expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos chairs of Session 3 "Monetary Policy Cycles" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs Session 4, "Euro area productivity in the short and long-run," at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane chairs Panel 2 "Drivers of equilibrium interest rates" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives closing remarks at ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The BlueInvest Africa event, organized by the European Commission, begins in Diani, Kenya, to discuss opportunities in the “blue economy” – maritime and coastal sectors and interior waterways.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, July 4, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in the United States.  Financial markets banks, and the government are closed so we can celebrate our freedom.

·       Ecuador's United Workers Front union will march in opposition to the end of fuel subsidies.

·       The political campaign period for the July 28 presidential election in Venezuela will begin.

·        Argentine President Javier Milei will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China (to be confirmed)

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The World Artificial Intelligence Conference begins in Shanghai, China.  The state-backed four-day event will showcase the latest technology under the theme "Governing AI for Good and for All."

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The United Kingdom holds parliamentary elections. The Labour Party is widely expected to sweep the elections.

·       The European Union's provisional tariffs on China's electric vehicles are due to take effect, barring an 11th-hour deal between the two sides. Europe in mid-June said it would slap additional duties of up to 38% on imported cars deemed to have been unfairly subsidized by the Chinese state. But the move has stirred concerns over potential retaliation, with major auto exporter Germany pushing for a compromise.

·       Today is the deadline for the European Commission to decide on a proposed acquisition by Lufthansa of a minority stake in Italy’s state-owned ITA Airways.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the Master in Economics and Finance (MEF) 2024 Lecture at the University of Naples Federico II in Naples, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in the 28th Annual Economist Government Roundtable in Athens, Greece.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote speech at the 15th edition of the National Statistics Conference in Rome, Italy.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, July 5, 2024 

Global

·       The 100th Anniversary of the Paris Olympic Games opening ceremony is today where the modern games are being held. This year’s Olympics begin on July 26 and run through August 11.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to give keynote before the 4th Suresh Tendulkar Memorial Lecture event organized by the Reserve Bank of India.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, will give a press conference at the NATO Headquarters in Brussels, to preview the NATO Summit in Washington DC.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an 0n-stage conversation at the 24th edition of Les Rencontres Economiques d'Aix-en-Provence 2024 "Relier les mondes" in Aix-en-Provence, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives introductory remarks followed by Q&A on a panel entitled "Embedding data culture in supervision" at Data Innovation for Future of Regulation (DIFoR) Conference organized by the Financial Conduct Authority in London, UK.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran holds the second round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, July 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Tokyo votes to elect its next governor, bringing an end to a two-week race between incumbent Yuriko Koike, backed by Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, and her main challenger, Renho Saito, endorsed by the opposition. Over 11.5 million Tokyoites are registered to vote, and a record 56 candidates are on the ballot. The winner will hold the job for four years and oversee Japan's largest municipal budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In London, the National March for Palestine organized by the Stop the War coalition takes place.  Organizers expect at least 100,000 people to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 7, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France holds the second round of parliamentary elections.

·       In Pamplona, Spain the annual Running of the Bulls takes place.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

GeoData

Where Data and Geopolitics Intersect - and Explain Possible New Trends

June 24, 2024

US-China Decoupling in One Chart (with Two More Bonus Charts)

In the last few years, there have been a lot of discussions about the rate of decoupling between China and the US. We have noticed the discussion seems to regularly default to a month-by-month analysis or, at best, a quarterly analysis. Recently, CEIC Data published a two-year chart (2022 to 2024) showing Chinese exports not only to the US (which, indeed, have seen significant shrinkage) but also to the rest of the world. 

The only actual increase, as the chart below shows, is to Southeast Asia, Latin America, and, of course, Russia. It is probably the best single chart we have seen so far, making clear how decoupling has taken hold and, more importantly, how it is not just a US-China issue but also one impacting the EU and Japan (who counts China as their biggest trading partner). And for the other major trading partner not listed here - South Korea - the second chart below shows their plunge in trade with China versus the spike in trade with the US.

Finally, the third chart shows how increasingly dependent China is on industrial production and exports rather than encouraging consumer spending. So, exports are driving China’s economic recovery—but not to the US and EU like it used to rely on.

A Common Question From Clients: Where Has All the CHIPS Act and IRA Money Gone? The Answer: Most of It Has Not Been Distributed Yet - Meaning The Massive Fiscal Boost Has Yet to Hit the Economy

There is a lot of excitement in the markets about the power of CHIPS Act, the Infrastructure bill, and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) spending to turbo-charge the US economy. But the real question is when can we expect it? From the charts below (courtesy of Politico), not for a while. So far, less than 2 percent of available CHIPS funding has been awarded by the Department of Commerce. The simple reason for this is the construction of semiconductor manufacturing facilities is anything but “shovel-ready.” It takes years - our understanding is five years minimum - to construct facilities. And you can only imagine how long it takes to plan such buildings. 

The infrastructure bill and the IRA are moving along significantly faster in dispensing funds. But again, infrastructure building of any kind takes a long time to complete. 

All in all, the size and scope of the fiscal spending of three bills are going to be a significant plus for the US economy - but not in time for the 2024 elections. And, if anything, Washington politicians will be lucky if it has ramped up enough to significantly impact the economy in a major way by the 2026 midterms.

The US Election, Gasoline Prices, the Budget/Debt Crisis, and the SPR: Is the SPR Doing OK and Is It Ready for a Crisis? And Who Knew Congress has Been Using SPR Sales for Budget Funding?

The Financial Times recently had an interesting and timely piece reporting how President Biden is prepared to use oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) again in an attempt to drive down persistently high gas prices ahead of the election. We have had the opportunity to do extensive speaking engagements throughout the Midwest and South in recent months, and in talking to a broad array of voters at all sorts of economic levels, the price of gasoline is the top complaint (quickly followed by high food prices). Heading into November, it continues to be a tough challenge for the Biden Administration as various geopolitical and economic factors have whipsawed the price of oil for the last three years, especially since 2022. 

While there is little a President can actually do to drive down oil prices, one of the tools at hand is the ability to release portions of the SPR. Conceptually, added supply in the public market would seem like a smart way to push prices down. But In reality, SPR releases do little to impact prices as it just is not enough to impact the markets in a large enough way. Yet, President Biden (and previous Presidents) do it because, well, at least, they can look like they are doing something. 

President Biden has used that tool with vigor. He first announced on March 31, 2022, that the Administration would release 1 million barrels of oil per day from the reserve for the next 180 days, selling it at an average price of $96 per barrel—making it the biggest SPR sale in 40 years. This sale also lowered the SPR to its lowest levels in more than 40 years. 

So, that got us wondering: With news of a likely new Presidential mandate to release more SPR stock and ongoing - indeed, increasing - geopolitical tensions and rising shipping rates globally, we were curious about what the current SPR level stands (after all, the whole point of the SPR is have a massive oil reserve in times of crisis. And Republicans have been strong critics of the Biden Administration for allowing to get so low.

By way of background, the SPR is authorized to store  727 million barrels. Currently, according to recent Department of Energy stats, the current level is at 370.9 million barrels.

But there is another little known factor as to why the SPR is so low: Congress has figured out selling SPR reserves is a way to get additional revenue for federal budgets. For example, according to the US Energy Information Agency, “in 2018, Congress directed the sale of more than 100 million barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in U.S. government fiscal years (FY) 2022 through 2027. Based on legislated sales established in multiple acts of Congress, the SPR could decline by about 40% in the coming decade while still meeting requirements for petroleum import coverage. Assuming no other legislation over this period, the SPR could decline from 695 million barrels at the start of 2017 to about 410 million barrels at the start of 2028.” That money has gone to help fund the Highway Trust Fund and other government programs.

I guess the point of this post is to ask: Do we take the SPR seriously anymore as a critical national economic security program? Or has its time of necessity essentially passed, especially with the ability of US producers to massively increase the pumping of crude at US sites if needed?  Just looking at Permian (Texas and New Mexico) production, it seems there is more than enough oil if needed in an emergency.

And do US voters understand - as we march toward the November elections - that whatever President Biden does with SPR releases, it really is not going to impact the price of gasoline now or in the future?

The Global Week Ahead

June 23 - 30, 2024

This week, the world and the markets will be captivated by the unfolding drama of US politics. President Biden and former President Trump are scheduled to engage in a high-stakes debate on Thursday night. The outcome of this debate, a pivotal moment in the political landscape, could reshape voters' perceptions of both candidates and sway the polls. Notably, this will be their last debate until September 10, adding to the anticipation and importance of this event.

Also this week, the US Supreme Court is expected to hand down a decision on the politically explosive issue of whether former President Trump can assert immunity for his pending federal case in which he was charged with conspiring to subvert the 2020 elections. If the Court rules in Trump's favor, then his January 6 federal case – which has been held up pending the Court's decision – will either proceed or be thrown out.

On the global stage, Iran is holding its presidential elections on Friday.  With six candidates in the running, most observers are predicting a low voter turnout and the likely election of a hardliner aligned with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's policies.  However, there is a potential game-changer - Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist lawmaker.  If somehow he gets elected, it could open a new avenue for improving relations with the US and other Western powers.

France begins its snap parliamentary elections this week. French President Emmanuel Macron called the elections upon seeing the results of the recent EU parliamentary elections. Since then, a coalition of right-wing candidates led by the National Rally's Marine Le Pen has surged to a lead and likely majority of the French Parliament.

Finally, the EU will hold a Conference on Ukraine's accession to become a member, a major step on the trek to joining the EU. Ukraine will be presented with a general Negotiating Framework, establishing the guidelines and principles for the accession negotiations.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, markets will look at inflation indicators published in the US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. The US PCE comes out on Friday.   Also, the Conference Board's consumer confidence gauge in the US comes out on Tuesday.

Turning to Asia, the Bank of Japan releases its summary of opinions from its June meeting. Markets will also consider the June Tokyo CPI, which comes out on Friday. 

 Below are the rest of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events and reports we are monitoring this coming week.

Sunday, June 23, 2024 

Global

·       The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) will hold plenary and working group meetings in Singapore.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Polish President Andrzej Duda begins a five-day state visit to China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Thailand New Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will receive Argentina's President Javier Milei in Berlin.  The two leaders are expected to trade issues.

·       Estonia celebrates Victory Day, commemorating the post-World War I fight against Soviet-Russian troops and the Baltic-German Landeswehr Army.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a  speech on the occasion of the conferral of the Weltwirtschaftlicher Preis 2024 to her by the Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft in Kiel, Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 24, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Somalia. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the. International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT) and a briefing on Non-proliferation. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Senate is out of session until July 8.  The House of Representatives is in session this week.

·       The US Supreme Court will be releasing this week five major rulings, including their decision if former President Trump can assert immunity for his pending federal case where he charged with conspiring to subvert the 2020 elections.  A second case will decide whether the US Justice Department properly charged more than 300 defendants for the January 6 uprising at the US Capitol.  A third case will decide whether the Biden Administration improperly coerce social media companies to remove false or misleading content in violation of the Constitution.  A fourth case will decide whether courts should defer to federal regulatory agencies interpretations of ambiguous laws.  And the fifth case will decide whether governments can tell social media platforms how to moderate content without running afoul of the First Amendment.

·       In New York, Genaro García Luna, former Mexican secretary of public safety, to be sentenced in a New York courtroom after his conviction of continuing criminal enterprise, conspiracy to distribute narcotics, conspiracy to import narcotics, and making false statements.

·       Peace talks between the Colombian government and the FARC dissident guerrilla group Segunda Marquetalia will begin in Caracas, Venezuela.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The International Monetary Fund gives their formal annual “check-up” of the US economy.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives opening remarks at the International Journal of Central Banking Annual Research Conference 2024, Rome, Italy.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to speak on monetary policy and the economy before an event in partnership with the Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California and the San Francisco Press Club.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks before the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (June)/ Current Account (May)/ Foreign Direct Investment (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (June)

·       Chile PPI (May)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (June)

·       Paraguay PPI (May)

·       Argentina Unemployment Rate Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Leading Indicator (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       A new session of parliament begins in India after the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a third term in power following June elections, although without the sole majority it held for a decade.

·       In Hong Kong, the Court of Final Appeal holds a hearing for Jimmy Lai, the British citizen and former newspaper owner who was arrested in 2020 for his pro-democracy activities and criticism of the Chinese Communist party.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       In Hong Kong, Chinese property developers Kaisa Group Holdings and Shimao face court proceedings over wind-up petitions, amid the country's relentless real estate crisis. Kaisa's hearing is scheduled for today, while Shimao's is set for Wednesday.

·       New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (May)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (May)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ M2 Money Supply (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  The ministers are expected to talk about the situation in Ukraine, the War in Gaza, the situation in the Western Balkans, Georgia, and the Great Lakes Region.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Luxembourg.  They are scheduled to talk about Russia’s actions in the Baltic Sea, future fisheries relations with Norway, and sustainable fishing in the EU.

·       NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg travels to France for meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron.

·       The European Space Forum takes place in Brussels and runs through June 25.  The Forum seeks to encourage “discussions currently taking place around the future of the EU Space Law and other important policy initiatives, this is a crucial period for the future shape of the space sector in Europe. The conference will provide a platform for multi-stakeholder discussions around the path towards the EU Single Market for Space; as well as focusing more broadly on strategic pillars of sustainability, resilience, competitiveness, economic security and on ensuring long-term autonomous access to space.”

·       President Alexander Lukashenko hosts Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in panel discussion at the ACPR Conference "Ten years of SSM banking supervision: key achievements and main challenges ahead" in Paris, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo Mr. Fernandez-Bollo chairs Roundtable 1 entitled: "What are the key achievements of 10 years of SSM supervision in Europe and the main expectations for the future?" at the ACPR Conference "Ten years of SSM banking supervision: key achievements and main challenges ahead" in Paris, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a Roundtable at ACPR Conference "Ten years of SSM banking supervision: key achievements and main challenges ahead" in Paris, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel "Investing in Sovereignty – How to Create a New Single Market for a New World Order?" at Tag der Industrie (TDI) 2024 in Berlin, Germany.

·       Switzerland Current Account Q1

·       Turkey Business Confidence (June)/ Capacity Utilization (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/14)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (June)

·       Poland Retail Sales (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Great Britain CBI Industrial Trends Orders (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran holds its third presidential debate in Tehran. The topic of the debate will be “Iran’s role in the World.”

·       The 21st Annual Herzlia Security Conference will be held in in Herzliya, Israel.  A number of senior Israeli and US officials, including US Ambassador to Israel Jacob Lew and National Security Advisor to Vice President Kamala Harris will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (May)/ M2 Money Supply (May)

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (April)/ Total Credit (April)/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Global Peace Leadership Conference begins in Nairobi, Kenya.  The event brings more than 600 delegates from 25 countries to discuss sustainable peacebuilding.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (May)

Tuesday, June 25, 2024 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East (Syria).

·       The Wall Street Journal’s Global Food Forum begins and runs through June 26.  Business leaders from the food industry and agriculture will be speaking.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Peru’s President Dina Boluarte begins a visit to China where she will meet with President Xi Jinping.  She is also expected to meet with the CEOs of Huawei and BYD, two firms winning market share in Peru. 

·       In Miami, Florida, a US Federal Court will sentence former British Virgin Islands Premier Andrew Fahie after he was convicted of conspiracy to import a controlled substance, conspiracy to commit money laundering, interstate and foreign travel in aid of racketeering, and other charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech entitled “Perspectives on U.S. Monetary Policy and Bank Capital Reform” at the Policy Exchange Event in London.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook” at the Economic Club of New York Luncheon, New York.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives pre-recorded opening remarks at the Midwest Cyber Workshop hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of St. Louis, Chicago, and Kansas City.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Canada Inflation Rate (May)/ CPI Median (May)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May)/ Redbook (June/22)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (April)/ House Price Index (April)/ CB Consumer Confidence (June)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (June)/ Richmond Fed Services Index (June)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (June)/ Money Supply (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/21)/ Fed Cook Speech/ Fed Bowman Speech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok and Japan Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki will hold meetings in Seoul.  They are working on how to “take appropriate steps to stabilize excessive volatility in their currencies.”

·       The National People's Congress Standing Committee convenes in Beijing for a four-day session. China's top legislative body has 10 bills on its agenda, including one that has raised eyebrows for seeking to ban behavior and clothing that "hurts the feelings" of the Chinese people. While there are likely to be draft changes, the current changes do not specify what images or words might be considered an offence, which could lead to a fine of 5,000 yuan ($680) or up to 15 days in prison.

·       In Dalian, China, the World Economic Forum’s 15th Annual Meeting of the New Champions starts and runs through June 27.  More than 1,500 corporate and political leaders are expected to attend.

·       China's Chang'e 6 lunar probe is due to return to Earth carrying the first samples ever collected from the far side of the moon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change & Index (June)

·       Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (April)/ Leading Index (April)

·       Japan Coincident Index Final (April)/ Leading Economic Index Final (April)

·       Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In France, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, National Rally president Jordan Bardella, and left-wing alliance leader Manuel Bompard will debate on national television ahead of the parliamentary elections which begin later this week.

·       The EU will hold a Conference on the Accession of Ukraine to becoming a member of the EU as well as a Conference of Accession for Moldova to the European Union will be held in Luxembourg.  Both countries will be presented with a general Negotiating Framework, which establishes the guidelines and principles for the accession negotiations.

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Luxembourg.  Ministers are expected to discuss preparations for the European Council meeting on June 27/28, including discussing the situation in Ukraine, the Middle East, EU security and defense, and EU competitiveness.

·       Today is Croatia Independence Day, commemorating the day in 1991 when the country broke away from Yugoslavia.

·       Slovenia celebrates Statehood Day, commemorating when it broke away from Yugoslavia in 1991.
Economic Reports/Events –

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q1/ PPI (May)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran holds its fourth and final presidential debate in advance of the June 28 election.  The topic of this debate will be “The Economy.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       President of the Republic of Congo Denis Sassou Nguesso will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin during a trip to Moscow.  Russia has been focusing on building their sphere of influence throughout Africa and, following a meeting between Putin and Nguesso during the Russia-Africa Summit last year, trade between the two countries has increased 85 percent.

·       Kenya’s Parliament will meet to vote on proposed changes to the 2024 finance law which has led to massive public protests around the country.

·       The Global Peace Leadership Conference will begin in Nairobi, Kenya.  The event brings more than 600 delegates from 25 countries to discuss sustainable peacebuilding.

·       Also in Nairobi, The Enhancing the Sustainability of Investment for Vaccine Manufacturing in Africa conference will begin and run through June 27.  The event is funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development. Kenyan President William Ruto will be the keynote speaker.

·       Today is Mozambique Independence Day, commemorating when the country declared its independence from Portugal after a bloody insurgency in 1975.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (April)

Wednesday, June 26, 2024 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on children and armed conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo hosts in Washington, D.C. South Korean Ahn Duk-geun and Japanese Ken Saito to discuss stable supply chains and how to mutually address China trade policy.

·       Mexico City’s Cutzamala water system could run dry.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve publishes its annual bank stress test results.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/21)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/21)/ New Home Sales (May)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (June/21)/ Bank Stress Tests/ Building Permits Final (May)

·       Brazil Bank Lending (May)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (June)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (May)/ Manufacturing Sales (May)

·       Argentina Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The US will commence Rim of the Pacific 2024 (Rimpac 24) military exercise, with 40 surface ships, three submarines, 14 national land forces, more than 150 aircraft and over 25,000 personnel taking part in the biennial exercise, this year hosted in Honolulu, Hawaii. It will run until August 2.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (May)/ Monthly CPI Indicator (May)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (May)

·       India M3 Money Supply (June/14)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The trial of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich on charges of espionage begins in Moscow.

·       British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and opposition leader Keir Starmer square off in a BBC debate ahead of elections on July 4.

·       The sixteenth meeting of the EU Accession Conference with Montenegro at ministerial level will be held in Brussels. The meeting will take stock of Montenegro’s progress in meeting the interim benchmarks of the rule of law chapters – Chapter 23 on Judiciary and Fundamental rights, and Chapter 24 on Justice, Freedom and Security – and provide guidance for the work ahead.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the Bank of Finland's 3rd International Monetary Policy Conference on monetary policy in low and high inflation environments in Helsinki, Finland.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JUL

·       Hungary Current Account Q1

·       France Consumer Confidence (June)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (May)/ Jobseekers Total (May)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (June)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (June)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (April)

·       Euro Area European Council

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Madagascar Independence Day is celebrated, commemorating when the country was given its independence in 1960 from France.

·       Somalia Independence Day is observed today, marking the day the country was given its independence by the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (June)

Thursday, June 27, 2024

Global

·       The G7 Education Ministers meet in Trieste, Italy.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), to the Democratic Republic of the Congo sanctions, as well as to the African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Also, this morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden will debate former President Trump in their first presidential debate in Atlanta, Georgia.  CNN is hosting the debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (June)/ PPI (May)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (April)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q1/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (May)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/22)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (June/15)/ PCE Prices Final Q1/ Real Consumer Spending Final Q1/ Pending Home Sales (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June/21)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (June)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (June)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (June)

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (June)/ ANZ Business Confidence (June)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/22)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/22)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (May)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Malaysia PPI (May)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council will meet in Brussels through June 28.  The EU leaders will seek to come to an agreement on who the next President of the European Commission will be.  Tensions have emerged between Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni and French President Emmanual Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz after they left her out of informal consultations on who should be the next president.  The leaders are also expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine, the Middle East, EU security and defense, and EU competitiveness.

·       In the UK, junior doctors in England begin a five-day strike in the British Medical Association’s ongoing dispute with the government over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech on banking supervision at a conference hosted by Allen & Overy in NeuIsenburg, Germany.

·       The Bank of England publishes their annual report on the British financial system stability.

·       Slovakia Business/ Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Spain Retail Sales (May)/ Business Confidence (June)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (June)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/21)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)/ Economic Sentiment (June)/ Consumer Confidence Final (June)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ Industrial Sentiment (June)/ Selling Price Expectations (June)/ Services Sentiment (June)

·       Italy Business/ Consumer Confidence (June)/ PPI (May)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (May)

·       Greece Total Credit (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran’s Presidential Election

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The UN-sponsored Africa CEO Summit begins in Nairobi, Kenya.  The event brings together business leaders and policymakers from Africa to discuss the future of Africa.

·       Eco t. nomic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (May) 

Friday, June 28, 2024 

Global

·       The Global Interdependence Center holds its Central Banking Series in Paris.  Among the speakers are Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau and Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Peru’s President Dina Boluarte begins a visit to China where she will meet with President Xi Jinping.  She is also expected to meet with the CEOs of Huawei and BYD, two firms winning market share in Peru.  China is Peru’s largest trading partner and is trying to build a $4 billion deep-water port in in Chancay, Peru which is raising concerns in the US and elsewhere in South America.  But the Peruvian government is disputing the terms of the deal and, for now, the venture is on hold.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman patriciates in a conversation At the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute Leadership Council Conference (virtual).

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak before the Global Interdependence Center/Banque de France" Central Banking Series: Paris" conference.

·       USA Fed Barkin Speech/ Core PCE Price Index (May)/ PCE Price Index (May)/ Personal Income & Spending (May)/ Chicago PMI (June)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (June)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks – Corn/Soy/Wheat (June)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June/28)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (June)/ GDP (April)

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (May)/ Nominal Budget Balance (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Net Payrolls (May)

·       Chile Copper Production (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Costa Rica GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Current Account Q1

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (May)

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Current Account Q1

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account Q1

·       Argentina Economic Activity (April)

·       Panama Current Account Q4

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Mongolia holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (May)/ Jobs/applications ratio (May)/ Tokyo CPI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Housing Starts (May)/ Construction Orders (May)

·       Australia Housing Credit (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (June)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (May)

·       Singapore Export Prices (May)/ Import Prices (May)/ PPI (May)

·       Thailand Current Account (May)/ Private Consumption & Investment (May)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (May)

·       China Current Account Final Q1

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       India Government Budget Value (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/21)/ Infrastructure Output (May)/ Current Account Q1/ External Debt Q1

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukraine celebrates Constitution Day, celebrates the date of the adoption of a new constitution in the Ukraine in 1996.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Retail Sales (May)/ Import Prices (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Great Britain Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q1/ Business Investment Final Q1

·       Hungary PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       France Inflation Rate (June)/ Household Consumption (May)/ PPI (May)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (June)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (June)

·       Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade Final (May)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (April)/ Inflation Rate (June)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (June)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (June)

·       Greece PPI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (May)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ M2 Money Supply (May)

·       Ukraine Current Account (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran holds elections to select a new president after President Raisi died in a helicopter crash. Iran's Guardian Council, which oversees elections and decides who allowed to run for elected office, have approved six candidates.  They include Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Iran's hardline parliament speaker and former Revolutionary Guards commander, Saeed Jalili, a conservative, who was former chief nuclear negotiator and ran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's office for four years and Tehran's conservative mayor Alireza Zakani.  Also approved to run are Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist lawmaker, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, a hardliner and a former interior minister, and Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi a conservative politician.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Djibouti’s Independence Day is celebrated today, marking the day in 1977 when it gained independence from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)/ Consumer Confidence Q2/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Budget Balance (May)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (June)

Saturday, June 29, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in the Petersberger Sommer-Dialog in Königswinter (Bonn), Germany.

·       France Legislative Election 1st Round

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2024 Egypt-European Union Investment Conference will take place in Cairo, Egypt and runs through June 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mauritania holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 29, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (June)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (June)/ NBS General PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The First Round of parliamentary voting begins in France.

·       Belgium’s six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union ends.  Hungary takes over the Presidency tomorrow, June 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q1/ M3 Money Supply (May)/ Private Bank Lending (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Congo celebrates its Independence Day today, commemorating when the country gained its independence from Belgium in 1960.

·       Today is Independence Day in the Seychelles, celebrating the day in 1975 when it gained its independence from the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

June 16 - 23, 2024

Last week was a busy week with the G7 Leaders' Summit and the Ukraine Peace Conference in Switzerland. This week will be less busy, but several important geopolitical events are worthwhile for the markets to watch closely. 

Of particular note, Russian President Vladimir Putin is embarking on two rare international trips, a deviation from his usual schedule since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest.  His first stop is North Korea, marking his first visit since 2000, to discuss ongoing arms deals.  North Korea, in a show of support for Russia's War on Ukraine, is reportedly selling large quantities of ammunition to Russia, estimated to be more than 5 million artillery shells.  From there, Putin will travel to Vietnam for trade discussions and, potentially, another weapons deal.

Also this week, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell travel to India for the first meetings between US and Indian officials since India's recent election.  They are expected to discuss further advanced security technology cooperation between the two nations.

Meanwhile, German Economics Minister Robert Holbeck travels to China to discuss China-EU trade issues.  Last week, the EU slapped 28 percent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle (EV) imports and is looking to apply similar tough tariffs on Chinese wind and solar exports, moves that have enraged Beijing.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, markets are likely to be most focused on economic data releases coming from the US and China. The US releases retail sales and industrial production data. There are also quite a few Federal Reserve Presidents speaking this week. China will announce its 1-year MLF rate decision and other key data releases later in the week.

Elsewhere, the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Swiss National Bank all meet on interest rates.

Below are all the other major political and economic events taking place around the world we are watching this week:

Sunday, June 16, 2024

Global

·        The Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha (one of the two main holidays celebrated in Islam) is celebrated through June 20.  Financial markets are closed in most Muslim countries.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 17, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden will host NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.  The Secretary General is visiting Washington through June 20 and will also meet with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and House and Senate leaders.  He will then travel to Canada to meet

·       The US Department of Agriculture’s agribusiness conducts its first trade mission on Native Nations agricultural products takes place in Vancouver, Canada.

·       The House of Representatives is out of session this week in observation of Juneteenth federal holiday.  House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and other senior Republican Party figures will travel to Florida to meet former President Donald Trump.

·       In Bolivia, protesters are expected to march against shortages of fuel and U.S. dollars, blocking roads and creating border closures.

·       The Russian Naval fleet that conducted military drills in Cuba will conclude its activities.

·       In Argentina, today is the Commemoration of General Don Martín Miguel De Güemes Day, a public holiday. De Güemes is considered a hero of freedom and “the hero of the Gauchos.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives acceptance remarks at the 2024 Marshall Medal Forum: A US-UK Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Chicago.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker gives a speech at the Global Interdependence Center’s 42nd Annual Monetary and Trade Conference

·       Canada Housing Starts (May)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (April)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (June)/ NOPA Crush Report/

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Chinese Premier Li Qiang make joint remarks to the media after a signing ceremony in Canberra.  Li’s visit concludes tomorrow.

·       New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will visit Japan to meet with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. This is Luxon's first visit to Japan since he took the job in November. The two leaders are expected to discuss expanding trade ties and business cooperation, and exchange views on the increasingly contested geopolitical situation in the Indo-Pacific region.

·       China and South Korea hold a 2+2 Security Talks in Seoul.  

·       Pakistan's government will observe a three-day public holiday through June 19 for the Muslim holiday Eid al-Adha.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (May)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (April)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (May)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)

·       China House Price Index (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ NBS Press Conference

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France begins the first official day of the parliamentary election campaign.

·       There will be an informal leader meeting of the European Council.  EU leaders will discuss the next institutional cycle. The European Council is central in designating the next high-profile EU-level roles, namely: electing the President of the European Council, nominating the President of the European Commission, and appointing the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

·       The EU Environmental Council meets.  They are scheduled to reach a general agreement on the approach for the waste framework directive and also try to reach a general approach on the Green Claims Directive.

·       Today is Iceland Independence Day, marking the day in 1944 the country gained its independence from Denmark.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks followed by Q&A at a seminar organized by the Universidad Internacional Menendez Pelayo and Asociación de Periodistas de Information Econónomica (APIE) in Santander, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in an on-stage conversation and Q&A at Reuters Newsmakers event in London, United Kingdom.

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Italy Inflation Rate Final (May)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (April)

·       Euro Area Labour Cost Index Final Q1/ Wage Growth Q1/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (April)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account Q1/ M1 Money Supply (May)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)

Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Sudan. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan travel to New Delhi, India for meetings with India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval.  They are expected to discuss technology cooperation and the U.S.-India Initiative on Critical Emerging Technology (iCET) launched in January 2023.

·       Argentine President Javier Milei will visit Prague, Czech Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler give a speech on  “The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to participate in an MNI Webcast discussion.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in"Economic and Monetary Policy" panel before hybrid 2024 Marshall Forum.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem to speak at CFA Society St. Louis luncheon.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to participate in moderated question-and-answer session before the Headliners Club Speaker Series in Austin, Texas.

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q1/ Private Spending Q1

·       USA Retail Sales (May)/ Redbook (June/15)/ Capacity Utilization (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs/Net Long-term TIC Flows (April)/ Foreign Bond Investment (April)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/14)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (April)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin travels to North Korea for meetings with Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang.  The two leaders are expected to discuss additional military arms deals (North Korea is selling significant amounts of ammunition to Russia to assist them in their war on Ukraine).

·       Thailand is quickly moving toward a political crisis as the government is expected to indict former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra for allegedly violating the country's law against insulting the monarchy and for a computer crime.  Additionally, the Constitutional Court will hear a case to dissolve the country’s main opposition party, the Move Forward Party and hear a case seeking the ouster of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin for appointing a convicted felon to his Cabinet.

·       China will officially mark its 618 online Shopping Festival, though early shopping is already ongoing.

·       South Korean doctors will strike to protest medical school admittance reforms.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Reserve Bank Governor Connolly Speech/ Reserve Bank’s Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       Singapore Balance of Trade (May)

·       China FDI (YTD) (May)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing & Services PMI (May)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (June/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council (Cohesion) will meet in Brussels. Ministers will exchange views on the link between cohesion policy and the EU strategic agenda for 2024-2029, set to be adopted by the European Council at its meeting on 27 and 28 June 2024.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Transport) will meet in Brussels.  They are expected to agree the Council’s position (‘general approach’) on the following legislative files concerning maritime safety and inland waterways, respectively:  the new regulation on the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) and the revised directive on river information services (RIS).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       There is a non-monetary policy meeting (virtual) of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindo speaks at a joint conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank on European Financial Integration in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs Session 2  -"A single EU financial markets supervision - Approaches and potential benefits" at the joint conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank on European Financial Integration in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate Final (May)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June)/ CPI Final (May)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June)/ ZEW Current Conditions (June)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (June)/ Inflation Report/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Belarus GDP (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Seychelles Constitution Day, marking the day in 1993 when a referendum was held making the country a multi-party democracy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US celebrates Juneteenth National Independence Day, marking the day when enslaved people in Galveston, Texas, finally learned they were free two years after the Emancipation Proclamation had been issued.  It is a national holiday.  Banks and financial markets are closed.

·       Today is Artigas Day in Uruguay, a national holiday.  It marks the birthday of José Gervasio Artigas, who is considered the father of Uruguayan nationhood.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NAHB Housing Market Index (June)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

·       Canada BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       Argentina Unemployment Rate Q1/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Premier Li Qiang arrives in Malaysia on the next stage of an eight-day visit to the region.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Vietnam.  The US Government has rebuked Vietnam for visit.  Putin and Vietnamese leaders are expected to discuss trade, energy, and weapons deals.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Reuters Tankan Index (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Australia RBA Chart Pack

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       New Zealand Current Account Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI Input & Output (May)/ Retail Price Index (May)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ Current Account (April)/ Construction Output (April)/ Eurogroup Meeting

·       Italy Current Account (April)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (April)

·       Russia PPI (May)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (April)/ Total Credit (April)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will be inaugurated for a second term.  Ramaphosa gained the seat after striking a deal with the opposition parties following a weak electoral outcome.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q1

Thursday, June 20, 2024

Global

·       Today is the Summer Solstice, the longest day of the year in the northern hemisphere, is also considered the first day of summer for that half of the world.

·       In the morning, the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of international peace and security: Cybersecurity. The Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak before the Risk Management Association in Richmond, Virginia.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/14)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/14)/ Current Account Q1/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/15)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (June)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (June)/Philly Fed CAPEX Index (June)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (June/14)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (April)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (May)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Tokyo, the campaign to become the next governor of Tokyo (which is the world’s biggest city) begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/15)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/15)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (June)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Final Q1

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Indonesia Lending Facility Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (June)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (May)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup (EU finance ministers and central bankers) will meet in Luxembourg.  They are expected to discuss IMF Article IV review of euro area policies, the international role of the euro with regard to stocktaking, and various other issues.

·       Arnold Schwarzenegger hosts his annual climate conference, the Austrian World Summit, in Vienna.  Speakers include European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and UN secretary-general António Guterres.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Social Policy) meets in Brussels.  The Council will seek to agree its negotiating position on a proposed directive amending the existing rules on European Works Councils, which represent workers in large multinational companies operating in at least two EU or European Economic Area (EEA) countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (May)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (May)/ SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area ECB General Council Meeting/ Consumer Confidence Flash (June)/ Ecofin Meeting

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (June)/ Auto Production & Sales (May)/ Budget Balance (May)/ Central Government Debt (May)

·       Greece Current Account (April)

·       Italy Construction Output (April)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (May)/ Employment Growth (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ PPI (May)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Serbia Current Account (April)

·       Great Britain BoE Interest Rate Decision/ BoE MPC Vote Cut/ BoE MPC Vote Hike/ BoE MPC Vote Unchanged/ MPC Meeting Minutes

·       Belarus Industrial Production (May)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (May)/ Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (May)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (April)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Martyrs’ Day in Eritrea, commemorating those who died in fighting for freedom between 1961 and 1991 when the country finally gained its independence from Ethiopia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (April) 

Friday, June 21, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentine President Javier Milei will receive an award from the Juan Mariana Institute in Madrid, Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Economic Activity (April)

·       Canada PPI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Raw Materials Prices (May)

·       USA S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)/ Existing Home Sales (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June/14)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June/21)

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (May)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan's opposition-controlled legislature is scheduled to hold another vote on a controversial bill that would strengthen parliamentary powers and, critics say, undermine President Lai Ching-te. The bill was already passed by the Kuomintang-Taiwan People's Party alliance, but Lai's Democratic Progressive Party government sent it back to parliament for reconsideration.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (May)

·       Australia Judo Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (May)/ Jibun Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (May)/ HSBC Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Bank Loan Growth (June/07)/ Deposit Growth (June/07)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/14)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (May)

·       Hong Kong Current Account Q1/ Inflation Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck will travel to Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou, China, through June 23.  Habeck is expected to discuss the EU’s tough new 38.1 percent tariffs on Electric Vehicles (EVs) and other trade measures the EU has taken against China.

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  The Ministers will exchange views on the state of play of the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), Russia’s war on Ukraine, tax policy, and an update on various financial services issues.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Health) meets in Luxembourg.  The ministers are expected to discuss ways forward for the regulatory incentives set out in the revision of the EU’s pharmaceutical legislation. The package aims to ensure the quality, safety and efficacy of medicines for EU patients and to harmonies the internal market.  They will also adopt a recommendation for setting out new measures on vaccine-preventable cancers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel on the occasion of the conferral of the Weltwirtschaftlicher Preis 2024 to her by the Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft in Kiel, Germany.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (May)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (April)

·       France Business Confidence (June)/ HCOB Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)

·       Germany HCOB Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)

·       Euro Area HCOB Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (June)/ PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (May)

·       Slovakia Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Private Bank Lending (May)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (May)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (May)/ Total Credit Growth (May)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Martyr’s Day in Toga, commemorating those who died fighting for the countries freedom which the country won in throwing off a dictatorship in 2005.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q1/ PPI (May)

Saturday, June 22, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako arrive in the UK ahead of a state visit running into next week.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Chad holds phase 2 of the presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 23, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The 10th SelectUSA Investment Summit takes place in Washington, D.C.  The Summit is the highest-profile event encouraging foreign direct investment into the US.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Thailand New Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Italy holds run-off municipal elections.

·       Today is the 8th anniversary of the Brexit vote in the UK.

·       Today is Luxembourg National Day, celebrating the official birthday of the ruler of Luxembourg.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

June 9 - 16, 2024

Despite the summer season, the upcoming week will significantly shape the trajectory of various geopolitical challenges in the coming months.  The G7 summit, to be held in Italy, is a pivotal event where leaders will delve into critical issues such as Ukraine, Gaza, and climate change.  Under the leadership of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the summit has extended invitations to African and other global leaders, amplifying its importance.

Meanwhile, world leaders will gather in Switzerland for the Summit on Peace in Ukraine.  The meeting seeks to develop "a common understanding of a path forward toward a just and lasting peace in Ukraine." Russia has not been invited, and China says it will not participate.

Simultaneously, the urgency of the situation in the Middle East is underscored by the King of Jordan's call for an immediate meeting on facilitating aid to Gaza.  This high-level gathering, to be attended by regional leaders, the UN Secretary-General, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, highlights the pressing need for humanitarian assistance in the region.

Amidst these developments, the BRICS foreign ministers are set to meet in Russia.   Notably, the Turkish foreign minister's attendance, as Turkey explores the possibility of joining the BRICS, could mark a significant shift in global alliances.   This meeting also marks the first BRICS gathering since Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates became members, adding to its significance.

On the global economic radar screen this week, the Federal Reserve meets to discuss interest rates.  Seeing the CPI release on Wednesday, markets will be keenly focused on what Fed Chair Jay Powell says during his press conference to indicate any hope for a rate cut this year.  The week ends with the University of Michigan consumer survey on Friday.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan meets on Friday to discuss rates.  While rates are unlikely to change, any guidance from the BoJ will be essential to listen to.  Also, China's inflation data will be out on Wednesday this week.

Finally, quite a few speeches are being given by European Central Bank board members that are worth watching.   The UK GDP is coming out on Wednesday. 

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events of note for the week ahead:

Sunday, June 9, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·      The Indian BJP-led National Democratic Alliance will officially form a new government. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will begin naming members of his cabinet.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Vehicle Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Parliamentary elections conclude, having begun on June 6.

·       Bulgaria holds snap parliamentary elections.

·       Belgium holds parliamentary (all 150 members of the Chamber of Representatives) and regional elections.

·       Switzerland holds a referendum vote on four issues (Premium Relief Initiative, Cost-Brake Initiative, Initiative for Freedom and Physical Integrity, Federal Act on Secure Electricity Supply from Renewable Energy Sources).

·       The Republic of South Ossetia holds parliamentary elections.

·       San Marino holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Heroes Day in Uganda, honoring the estimated 500,000 people who died in the Uganda Bush War that took place between 1981 and 1986.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 10, 2024 

Global

·       BRICs Foreign Ministers will meet in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, through June 11.  The meeting is in preparation for the BRICS Leaders Meeting being held October 22-24 in Russia. his will be the group's first regular meeting since BRICS expanded this year to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Foreign ministers from some non-BRICS members were invited, too, most notably Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who will attend. 

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on UNOCA/LRA, followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the 1267/1989/2253 Committee.

·       The UN’s  3rd Dushanbe Water Action Decade Conference will be held in Dushanbe, Republic of Tajikistan.  Li Junhua, USG of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), will deliver opening and closing remarks as a co-chair and will also deliver remarks at the Interactive Dialogue 5 on the Water Action Decade.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will travel to Egypt, Israel, Jordan, and Qatar from June 10-12, 2024.  The Secretary will discuss with partners the need to reach a ceasefire agreement that secures the release of all hostages.

·       Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s transition team official begins working, and a number of key personnel appointments are expected to be announced.

·       US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to New Delhi to for meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Israel to push for a cease-fire in Gaza.

·       The U.S. and Japan hold their inaugural meeting of the Defense Industrial Cooperation, Acquisition, and Sustainment Forum (DICAS) in Tokyo. Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante and Masaki Fukasawa, commissioner of Japan's Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics Agency,  meet with representatives from American and Japanese defense contractors to discuss co-production of missiles and ship repair of U.S. Navy ships at Japanese private shipyards.

·       The U.S. and South Korea will hold the third meeting of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) in Seoul to discuss further ways to deter North Korea's nuclear threat. Established under the Washington Declaration when presidents Joe Biden and Yoon Suk Yeol met in April last year, the NCG arranged the  Ohio-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine USS Kentucky's port call to Busan last June, the first such visit by a ballistic missile submarine in four decades.

·       The Korea-Latin America Future Cooperation Forum will begin in Seoul, South Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Malaysia Industrial Production YoY APR/ Unemployment Rate APR

·       Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current MAY

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves MAY

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU is expected to announce its decision on whether to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

·       Poland will hold a National Security Council meeting over border tensions with Belarus.

· Chancellor Olaf Scholz receives Chile President Gabriel Boric with military honors, followed by a press conference.

·       Today is Portugal Day, also known as “Dia de Portugal, de Camões e das Comunidades Portuguesas.”  The day commemorates the death of Luís de Camões who is recognized as the country’s greatest nation icon.  He is most known for his poem which narrates the story of Portuguese explorations in the 15th century.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania Balance of Trade APR

·       Hungary Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Slovakia Industrial Production YoY APR

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence MAY

·       Turkey Industrial Production YoY APR/ Unemployment Rate APR/ Current Account APR/ Participation Rate APR

·       Italy Industrial Production YoY APR

·       Slovenia Industrial Production YoY APR

·       Greece Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Belarus Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran’s Guardian Council will announce the official candidates allowed to run for president in the wake of the June 28 death of President Ebrahim Raisi.  Iranian state media have reported that the speaker of parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, a former Revolutionary Guards commander who lost his bid in two previous presidential polls, is among the candidates. Other well-known figures who have signed up include hardline former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and former Speaker Ali Larijani, a prominent conservative and ally of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 

·       Iraqi Kurdistan holds regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production YoY APR

·       Jordan Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Israel Consumer Confidence MAY

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Tuesday, June 11, 2024 

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will attend a High-Level Conference on Gaza. The “Call for Action: Urgent Humanitarian Aid for Gaza” conference will be held at the invitation of His Majesty King Abdullah II, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, and the Secretary-General of the United Nations. 

·       OPEC Releases its Monthly Oil Market Report.

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT). In the afternoon, the Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Trade Representative Katherine Tai travels to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan through June 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index MAY/ Redbook YoY JUN/08/ API Crude Oil Stock Change JUN/07

·       Brazil Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Mexico Industrial Production YoY APR

·       Canada Building Permits MoM APR

·       Colombia Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account APR

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade APR

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence MAY

·       Indonesia Retail Sales YoY APR

·       Malaysia Retail Sales YoY APR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ukraine Recovery Conference begins in Berlin, Germany, and runs through June 12.  International leaders will attend the conference, which is being hosted by the German Foreign Office and the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). The URC2024 is a continuation of the annual series of high-level political events dedicated to the swift recovery and long-term reconstruction of Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine. It is also the first Ukraine Recovery Conference hosted in an EU member state and comes at a critical time for Ukraine. The conference will reflect the Lugano Principles, including a “whole of society” approach to recovery through the meaningful participation of a broad range of stakeholders. 

·       NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will visit Riga, Latvia. He will participate in the B9 Summit, hosted by the President of Latvia, Edgars Rinkēvičs, the President of Romania, Klaus Iohannis, and the President of Poland, Andrzej Duda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Claudia Buch gives the opening keynote speech at the 2024 Annual ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference in Frankfurt.  ECB Board Member Frank Elderson will give the dinner speech.

·       ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat at the Banking and Payments Federation Ireland National Conference in Dublin.

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate APR/ HMRC Payrolls Change MAY

·       Turkey Retail Sales YoY APR

·       Russia Balance of Trade APR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Jordan will host an International Conference on Humanitarian Aid to Gaza. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will participate as will the UN Secretary General and other leaders.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade APR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production YoY APR

Wednesday, June 12, 2024

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold s briefing on North Korea.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the commemoration of the Chaco Armistice, a national holiday in Paraguay commemorating the end of the Chaco War between Paraguay and Bolivia in the 1930s. .

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meets on the economy and interest rates.  Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index JUN/07/ Inflation Rate YoY MAY/ CPI MAY/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change JUN/07/ Consumer Inflation Expectations MAY/ WASDE Report/ / FOMC Economic Projections/ Monthly Budget Statement MAY/ Interest Rate Projection – Current/

·       Uruguay Industrial Production YoY APR

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade APR

·       Peru Balance of Trade APR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate MAY

·       Japan PPI YoY MAY/ Machine Tool Orders YoY MAY

·       China Inflation Rate YoY MAY/ PPI YoY MAY

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence MAY/ M3 Money Supply YoY MAY/31

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       India Industrial Production YoY APR/ Inflation Rate YoY MAY/ Manufacturing Production YoY APR

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence MAY

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·      British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labor Leader Keir Starmer participate in their second debate on Sky News.

·       Russian FM Lavrov meets Cuban counterpart Bruno Eduardo Rodríguez Parrilla on the sidelines of the BRICS Foreign Minister Meeting.

·      Today is Peace Day in Kosovo, celebrating the ceasefire in the Kosovo War in 1999.

·      Today is Russia Day, a national holiday in Russia. Originally, the holiday was known as the Russia Independence Day celebrating the disintegration of the Soviet Union.  President Putin changed the name and meaning of the day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen will participate in a panel discussion at the 2024 Bundesbank Symposium in Frankfurt.  Later in the day, ECB Board Member Claudia Buch will speak.

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will testify before the Finance Committee of the German Bundestag in Berlin.

·       ECB Board Vice President Luis de Guindos will give remarks and participate in a Q&A at MNI Connect event in London.

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul will give a keynote speech at the Central Banking's Summer Meetings in London.

·       Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final MAY/ Current Account APR

·       Romania Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Great Britain GDP YoY APR/ Goods Trade Balance APR/ Balance of Trade APR/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production YoY APR/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker MAY

·       Slovakia Construction Output YoY APR

·       Russia Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Export-Import Bank annual meetings and the AfriCaribbean Trade and Investment Forum will be held in Nassau, The Bahamas, under the theme ‘Owning Our Destiny: Economic Prosperity on the Platform of Global Africa.’

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

Thursday, June 13, 2024

Global

·       The G7 Leaders’ Summit begins in Apulia, Italy, and goes through June 14.  This year the G7 is chaired by Italy and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.  The main issues to be addressed during the six working sessions are: Africa, climate change and development, the ongoing situation in the Middle East, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, migration, Indo-Pacific/economic security, artificial intelligence, and energy/Africa and the Mediterranean region, The Italian presidency has also invited leaders from 12 countries and 5 international organizations to take part in some working sessions during the summit. African leaders from Kenya, Algeria, Egypt, South Africa, and Tunisia will attend.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing in the morning on the Middle East followed by consultations (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on 1591 Committee, followed by consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will moderate a discussion with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen before the Economic Club of New York.

·       US Export Sales, PPI (May), Initial Jobless Claims (June 1), EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June 7)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (April)

·       Argentina Inflation ((May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY MAY

·       Japan BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ Q2/ Foreign Bond Investment JUN/08/ Stock Investment by Foreigners JUN/08

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index JUN/ Employment Change MAY/ Unemployment Rate MAY/ Participation Rate MAY

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment MAR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Ministers will meet in Brussels and participate in the NATO-Ukraine Council.

· NATO holds Tiger Meet 2024, a NATO aircraft exercise in Schleswig Air Base Germany.

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  The presidency will inform ministers about the state of play of a legislative proposal to combat child sexual abuse. The proposed EU law would make it mandatory for internet companies to alert the authorities about online child sexual abuse on their platforms. A planned EU center would support authorities acting on reports of child sexual abuse and collect and share expertise and best practices in prevention and victim support.  Ministers will also discuss the extension of the temporary protection for persons having fled from Ukraine after the start of the war. This protection – which was activated on 4 March 2022 – allows displaced persons from Ukraine to reside in the EU and to enjoy rights related to, for instance, residence and medical assistance across the EU. It was initially granted for one year and has been extended until 4 March 2025. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance MAY

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (May)

·       Spain Inflation (May)

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (April)

·        

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey FX Reserves (June 7)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (April), Mining Production (April)

Friday, June 14, 2024

Global

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the maintenance of international peace and security. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US celebrates Flag Day, commemorating the day in 1777 when the Second Continental Congress adopted the first US national flag.

·       Today is Falkland Islands Liberation Day, celebrating the day in 1982 when the British military liberated the island from Argentine military occupation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook will give a speech entitled “Lessons from the American Economic Association Summer Program” at the Celebrating 50 Years of the American Economic Association Summer Program, Washington, D.C.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in a fireside chat before the Iowa Farm Bureau Economic Summit in Des Moines, Iowa.

·       US Export Prices and Import Prices (May), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June), Michigan Inflation Expectations (June), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (June 14)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (April)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (April), New Motor Vehicle Sales (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (May), M2 Money Supply (May), Outstanding Loan Growth (May), Total Social Financing (May)

·       Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision, Japan Capacity Utilization (April), Industrial Production (April), Tertiary Industry Index (April)

·       South Korea Import/Export Prices (May)

·       India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May),  WPI Food Index (May), WPI Fuel Index (May), WPI Inflation (May), WPI Manufacturing (May)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)

·       Singapore Unemployment (Q1)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) meets in Brussels. Ministers will hold two policy debates. The first debate touches on a proposed regulation that aims to facilitate the recognition in a member state of the parenthood of a child that has been established in another member state. The exchange will, in particular, address the recognition of surrogacy parenthood. A second debate addresses the proposed update of a directive from 2011 on combating the sexual abuse and sexual exploitation of children and child pornography. The goal is to expand the definitions of these offenses and to introduce higher penalties and more specific requirements for prevention and assistance to victims.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the 30th Dubrovnik Economic Conference in Dubrovnik.

·       ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane will participate on panel at the 30th Dubrovnik Economic Conference in Dubrovnik.

·       ECB Board Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in the Award ceremony of the Carlos V European Prize to Mr. Mario Draghi.

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a virtual meeting of the European Fiscal Board.

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the Lions Club Dortmund in Dortmund, Germany.

·       France Inflation (May)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (April)

·       Eurozone Balance of Trade (April)

·       Russia Inflation (May), GDP (Q1)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Budget Balance (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (April & May)

Saturday, June 15, 2024

Global

·       Switzerland will host a Summit on Peace in Ukraine in Bürgenstock.  The goal of the meeting is to bring heads of states together to develop “a common understanding of a path forward toward a just and lasting peace in Ukraine.”  The summit, in which more than 108 countries will be represented, will build on broad international support for Ukrainian President Zelensky’s peace proposals, which include a full withdrawal of Russian troops.  Moscow has not been invited, and China says it will not participate.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s coastguard law, regulations on the Administrative Law Enforcement Procedures for Coast Guard Agencies, goes into force.  The law could and likely will lead to direct military confrontation with Philippine, US, and other shipping moving through waters China is claiming as their own and which is disputed by the Philippines and other nations.

·       Today is National Salvation Day in Azerbaijan.  The day commemorates the return to power of the national leader, Heydar Aliyev, to Baku in 1993 helping to end political chaos and the risk of civil war.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FDI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 16, 2024

Global

·       The Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha (one of the two main holidays celebrated in Islam) is celebrated through June 20.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing Significant to Report

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation (May), Wholesale Rate (May), Wholesale Prices (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa’s new Parliament will convene as coalition negotiations continue to form a new government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

June 7 - 9, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week.  With the EU elections now underway, we offer several resources to help understand how the elections work and what and who is trending.   We hope you find all these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

EU 2024 Elections

• An American’s guide to the 2024 European election   Politico EU

  The EU elections have begun, choosing a new EU Parliament with more than 400 million Europeans eligible to vote.  But, as Politico EU points out, the EU is complicated, and so they break it down for “our cousins across the Atlantic.”
  

• European Elections 2024: All You Need to Know  European Elections 2024 (European Parliament Official Site)

  The EU Parliament offers this site to voters, giving them all the information, country by country, of who is running, which Parties are on the ballot, how the votes are tallied, and where they can find the election results.

• Europe’s center-left struggles to hold back surge from the right   BBC

  Only four EU member states have center-left or left-wing parties in government, and recent performances at the ballot box have been poor. The omens for the coming days are not good.  The EU’s center-left makes up the second-largest group in the outgoing European Parliament. Known as the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), they are projected, at best, to cling on to their 139 seats in the 720-seat parliament. It is Europe's parties on the right that have the wind in their sails, and any success the center-left achieves is likely to be offset by losses elsewhere.

U.S. 2024 Elections

• An Unsettled Electorate: How Uncertainty and Apathy Are Shaping the 2024 Election American Enterprise Institute’s Survey Center on American Life

  With just under six months until the 2024 presidential election, a new survey of more than 6,500 adults finds considerable uncertainty among the American public, with few paying close attention to issues that may define the election. Americans are evenly divided between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. At this stage in the election cycle, neither candidate is particularly well-liked: Comparable numbers of Americans hold negative opinions of Trump or Biden as say they favor either candidate. Half of voters say things will get worse if either Biden or Trump wins reelection. Still, Americans tend to believe that the candidate options for the 2024 presidential election present an easy choice, though young voters, especially young women, are less certain.  Optimism about the state of the country is in short supply. Americans are primarily pessimistic about the national economic outlook, their local economic outlook, and the American Dream as a whole. More than six in 10 (61 percent) Americans say the national economy is worsening. Half (49 percent) say their local economy is getting worse. Most Americans, including large percentages of young Americans, say the American Dream is not easy for people like them to achieve.

• Cultural Issues and the 2024 Election   Pew Research Center

  The 2024 presidential campaign is taking place amid intense debates over topics such as immigration, growing racial and ethnic diversity in the United States, the changing American family, crime, and reproductive issues. These topics are sometimes grouped together as “culture war” or “woke” issues. On most—but not all—of these topics, voters who support President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have starkly different opinions. Yet, in many cases, Biden and Trump's supporters are themselves sharply divided.

Global Markets & Geoeconomics

• BRICS and De-Dollarization, How Far Can It Go?   Responsible Statecraft

  Although much U.S. media attention was paid to the enhancement of military and political cooperation during the summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing earlier this month, financial issues also figured high on the agenda.  The Russian delegation included Elvira Nabiullin, Governor of the Central Bank of Russia and she rarely travels with Putin abroad.  As the current chair of the BRICS, Putin is pursuing a rather extensive agenda related to finance that includes enhancing the role of member countries in the international monetary and financial system and developing interbank cooperation and settlements in national currencies – and part of that is the possibly created a BRICS currency.
  

• Risky Oil: It’s All in the Tails   Christiane Baumeister, Florian Huber & Massimiliano Marcelino/National Bureau of Economic Research

  The substantial fluctuations in oil prices in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have highlighted the importance of tail events in the global market for crude oil which call for careful risk assessment. In this paper we focus on forecasting tail risks in the oil market by setting up a general empirical framework that allows for flexible predictive distributions of oil prices that can depart from normality. This model, based on Bayesian additive regression trees, remains agnostic on the functional form of the conditional mean relations and assumes that the shocks are driven by a stochastic volatility model. We show that our nonparametric approach improves in terms of tail forecasts upon three competing models: quantile regressions commonly used for studying tail events, the Bayesian VAR with stochastic volatility, and the simple random walk. We illustrate the practical relevance of our new approach by tracking the evolution of predictive densities during three recent economic and geopolitical crisis episodes, by developing consumer and producer distress indices that signal the build-up of upside and downside price risk, and by conducting a risk scenario analysis for 2024.
  

• The Simple Macroeconomics of AI   Daron Acemoglu/National Bureau of Economic Research

  This paper evaluates claims about large macroeconomic implications of new advances in AI. It starts from a task-based model of AI’s effects, working through automation and task complementarities. So long as AI’s microeconomic effects are driven by cost savings/productivity improvements at the task level, its macroeconomic consequences will be given by a version of Hulten’s theorem: GDP and aggregate productivity gains can be estimated by what fraction of tasks are impacted and average task-level cost savings. Using existing estimates on exposure to AI and productivity improvements at the task level, these macroeconomic effects appear nontrivial but modest—no more than a 0.66% increase in total factor productivity (TFP) over 10 years. The paper then argues that even these estimates could be exaggerated because early evidence is from easy-to-learn tasks, whereas some of the future effects will come from hard-to-learn tasks, where there are many context-dependent factors affecting decision-making and no objective outcome measures from which to learn successful performance.

China

• How China Could Quarantine Taiwan  Center for Strategic & International Studies

  In this interactive report, CSIS China has significantly increased pressure on Taiwan in recent years. Its military ships and aircraft now operate around Taiwan on a near-daily basis, stoking fears that tensions could erupt into outright conflict.  Much of the world’s attention has focused on the threat of a Chinese invasion, but Beijing has many options besides an invasion to coerce, punish, or annex Taiwan. One major step China could take is a “gray zone” quarantine led not by the military but by the coast guard and other law enforcement forces.  Rather than sealing off the island, a quarantine would aim to demonstrate China’s ability to exert control over Taiwan.
  

• How is China’s Economic Transition Affecting Its Relations with Africa?    Carnegie Africa Program/Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  Amid increasing tensions with the United States and domestic pressures, China has been more motivated to reorient its economic and diplomatic relations with the Global South. China’s economic transition is already affecting its relations with Africa in several domains, including trade, investments, and people-to-people ties.  The authors of this study provide insights into the implications of China’s economic transition for Africa, as well as the roles for third parties like the United States to shape how these changes unfold.

Russia/Ukraine

• Russia’s Soaring Wartime Salaries Are Bolstering Working-Class Support for Putin   Carnegie Politika

  Many formerly badly paid Russian blue-collar workers have seen their salaries skyrocket since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, far outpacing inflation.  he reasons for rising incomes in Russia have been well documented: a labor shortage, hefty payments to soldiers and their families, and an unprecedented level of state spending that has obliged defense sector factories to work around the clock. However, whether standards of living have actually improved is open to debate, given the record military spending, high inflation, Western sanctions, and limits on hydrocarbon exports.  The second trend is the booming gambling market. The income of legal bookmakers rose 40 percent in 2023, and active gamblers (those who bet at least once a week) numbered some 6.6 million people. In total, more than 15 million people gambled (about one in seven Russians over the age of 18) over the course of the year. At the same time, inflation means the size of the average bet is growing. Current trends have even led to calls to raise the legal limit on a single bet from 600,000 rubles to 1.4 million rubles.

• One year after the Kakhovka dam disaster, a Ukrainian photographer captures the exposed riverbed and ruined villages left behind  Meduza.com

  The destruction of the dam at Ukraine’s Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant on the morning of June 6, 2023, caused the flooding of about 80 towns and villages in the country’s Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. Kyiv and Moscow blamed each other for the collapse and the resulting humanitarian and environmental disaster (though the dam has been controlled by Russian forces since the start of the full-scale invasion). In addition to inundating communities downstream from the facility, the dam’s breach caused catastrophic shallowing further upstream, devastating communities in the Zaporizhzhia region that used to rely on fishing and river transport for their livelihoods. For Meduza, Ukrainian photographer Pavel Korchagin traveled to the region to capture the way its landscape has changed in the year since the dam burst.

The Global Week Ahead

June 2 - 9, 2024

This is the week of big election results, which will have a big impact on markets. Mexico, India, and the European Parliament all have elections this week. The outcome in two of them—Mexico and India—is pretty much assured for the ruling parties, but the margin of victory is critically important to the market outlook for both countries. 

In Mexico, former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum is ahead in all polls.  But her opponent, Xóchitl Gálvez, has run a smart campaign and put reforms and economic development on the nation, putting serious pressure on Sheinbaum and the Moreno Party coalition.  Interestingly, Sheinbaum is seen as possibly being more left-wing than current President Andres Manual Lopez Obrador (AMLO), but voter pressure may keep her leftist tilt in check.

In India, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appear to be on the cusp of an enormous victory, picking up even more seats in parliament than before and potentially paving the way for Modi to push through sweeping reforms highly attractive to investors.

Finally, in Europe, voters across the European Union will vote for members of the European Parliament.  Polls suggest the result could be a significant right-wing tilt of the EU Parliament.  It will also decide who the next EC President will be (likely re-election of current President Ursula von der Leyden) and the entire European Commission. 

We would note two important and somber anniversaries this week, one ensuring freedom and the other crushing it: The first being the 80th Anniversary of D-Day on June 6 and the second 35th Anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing.

Looking at the economic radar screen this week, markets will be watching the European Central Bank's decision on interest rates on Thursday.    Elsewhere in Europe, Germany releases industrial production figures, factory orders, and the latest trade balance numbers. 

In the US, the jobs report coming out Friday is being closely watched by market participates in advance of the Federal Reserve Board meeting in two weeks.  Canada’s Reserve Bank meets on interest rates.

 Turning to Asia, China releases the Caixin PMIs and the May trade balance. In Japan, the Ministry of Finance’s Q1 Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations and the Monthly Labor Survey for April are released.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, June 2, 2024

Global

·        OPEC+ ministers meet via videoconference to assess oil output.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Mexico holds presidential, senatorial, and chamber of deputy elections.  Claudia Sheinbaum (ruling party MORENA) is expected to win against her opponent, Xochitl Galvez (opposition party PAN).  You can track the election results HERE.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        Serbia reruns Belgrade’s elections which were held in December.  The rerun comes as a result of complaints of widespread voter fraud.

·        Italy celebrates Republic Day today, marking the day in 1946 when the country voted to become a republic following the end of World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        The International Air Transport Association holds its annual meeting in Dubai through June 4.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 3, 2024

Global

·        The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will meet in Vienna to discuss Iran’s nuclear development and the situation in Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        President Biden’s son, Hunter, goes on trial for illegal firearms possession.

·        Brazil will host the International Conference on Renewable Energy Technologies in Teresina.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Mexico Business Confidence (May)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (April)

·        Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·        Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

·        Uruguay Unemployment Rate (April)

·        Argentina Tax Revenue (May)

·        Peru Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (May)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM (May)

·        Japan Capital Spending YoY (Q1)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

·        Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

·        Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

·        Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Thailand Business Confidence (May)

·        Pakistan Balance of Trade (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        The UN’s Bonn Climate Change Conference begins in Bonn, Germany.  The meeting is in advance of the COP28 meetings.

·        The Oslo Freedom Forum takes place in Oslo, Norway.  The posthumous Award of the Oslo Freedom Forum Human Rights Prize will be given to Alexei Navalny.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        France Budget Balance (April)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

·        Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Spain Tourist Arrivals (April)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Turkey Inflation Rate (May)/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (May)/ PPI (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (May)

·        Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

·        Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

·        Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI May

·        Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

·        Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        The White House is set to send a delegation of National Security Council staff to Egypt to hold a trilateral meeting between U.S., Egyptian and Israeli officials in Cairo next week to discuss the reopening of the Rafah crossing and a plan for securing the border between Egypt and Gaza Nothing significant to report.

·        Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing.  They are expected to discuss enhanced trade opportunities as well as the situation in Gaza and in Ukraine. Another key point they will discuss is harmonizing China’s Belt and Road Initiative with the Trans-Caspian East-West Middle Corridor Initiative. These discussions come as developments in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Red Sea impact global supply line security and some transportation projects.  Fidan will also meet with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Uganda observes Martyrs Day,  commemorating when 45 Christians chose execution over renouncing their faith in 1887. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (May)

Tuesday, June 4, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with his counterparts in Cambodia.  In recent years, Cambodia has grown closer to China.  China has been sending migrant workers to Cambodia, reaching almost 300,000 workers.  Penh.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

·        Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (March)

·        USA Redbook (June/01)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/31)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (May)/ Total Vehicle Sales (May)

·        Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI/ Exports (April)

·        Paraguay Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s national election process concludes.  The seven-phase general election began on April 19 with voting being held for 543 seats in the Lok Sbah (the lower house of Parliament).  An estimated 970 million people were eligible to vote.  More than one million polling stations were set up and 15 million employees of federal and state governments conducted the polls.  Poll officials went to great lengths to ensure everyone who could vote did vote.  Officials used helicopters, boats, mules, and even elephants to reach remote areas.  A party needs to win a majority of 272 seats to form a government.  The ruling Baharatiya Janata Party (BJP) went into the election with 282 seats and is looking to expand that number.  You can track the election results HERE.

·       South Africa hosts the Korea-Africa Summit and the Korea-Africa Business Sumit (on June 5)  in Seoul.  African leaders will gather to discuss with South Korean leaders how to improve trade and economic relations.

·       Pakistan Foreign Minister Shehbaz Sharif meets with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing.  The meeting is expected to focus on expanding the multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which is critical to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, giving China access to Pakistan’s ports.

·       Today is the 35th anniversary of the crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators in Tiananmen Square.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        South Korea Inflation Rate (May)

·        India General Elections Results

·        Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Australia Company Gross Profits QoQ (Q1)/ Business Inventories QoQ (Q1)/ Current Account (Q1)/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP (Q1)/ Retail Sales MoM Final (April)

·        New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (June/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labor Party Leader Sir Keir Starmer will debate on ITV in their first election debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        European Central Bank Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in a seminar entitled "Big Techs in Finance: The European Union Must React!" organized by the Association Europe-Finances-Régulations (AEFR) in Paris.

·        European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a  speech at "Die Woche der Umwelt 2024, zusammen für Klimaneutralität" organized by the Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt (DBU) in Berlin.

·        Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May)

·        Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Romania PPI (April)

·        Hungary GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

·        Switzerland Inflation Rate (May)

·        Slovakia Real Wages YoY (Q1)

·        Spain Unemployment Change (May)

·        Germany Unemployment Rate (May)

·        Slovenia Balance of Trade (April)

·        Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (May)

·        Qatar Financial Centre PMI (May)/ Balance of Trade (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        African leaders will gather in Seoul for the 2024 Korea-Africa

·        Zambia’s bondholders will hold a final vote on Tuesday on a $3 billion restructuring deal aimed at creating fiscal space for the southern African nation that defaulted in 2020.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Egypt S&P Global PMI (May)

·        South Africa GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

Wednesday, June 5, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo will travel to Singapore to participate in the Indo-Pacific Framework Clean Energy Investor Forum, which runs through June 6.  She will then participate in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework Ministerial meetings.

·        The Inaugural Joint Angolan American Defense Cooperation Agreement begins in Washington and runs through June 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/31)/ ADP Employment Change (May)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May)/ ISM Services PMI (May)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/31)

·        Brazil Industrial Production (April)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May)

·        Mexico Consumer Confidence (May)

·        Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision/Press Conference

·        Canada Labor Productivity QoQ (Q1)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May)/

·        Uruguay Inflation Rate (May)

·        Argentina Industrial Production (April)

·        Colombia PPI (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

·        New Zealand Export Prices QoQ (Q1)/ Import Prices QoQ (Q1)/ Terms of Trade QoQ (Q1)

·        Australia Ai Group Industry Index (May)/ Judo Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

·        Japan Average Cash Earnings (April)/ Overtime Pay (April)/ Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (May)

·        Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (May)

·        Singapore S&P Global PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/ SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Philippines Inflation Rate (May)

·        China Caixin Services & Composite PMI (May)

·        Thailand Inflation Rate (May)

·        India HSBC Services & Composite PMI Final (May)

·        Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (May)

·        Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum begins and runs through June 8.  Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to speak.

·        Denmark celebrates Constitution Day, commemorating the day in 1849 when the first Constitution was signed.  Workers get the second half of the day off and shops close to celebrate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        European Central Bank Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates in a fireside chat at the 28th Goldman Sachs European Financial Conference in Madrid.

·        ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel discussion at the 23rd annual IMF-FED-WB.

·        Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May)/ PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Business Confidence (May)/ Real Wage Growth (March)/ Retail Sales (April)/ GDP (April)

·        Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (April)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·        France Industrial Production MoM (April)/ HCOB Services & Composite PMI (May)

·        Spain HCOB Services Composite PMI (May)

·        Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMI (May)

·        Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMI (May)

·        Euro Area HCOB Services & Composite PMI (May)/ PPI (April)/ European Parliament Election

·        Great Britain S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Final

·        Poland Interest Rate Decision (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (May)

·        Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (May)

·        Israel Tourist Arrivals (May)

·        Jordan PPI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (May)

·        South Africa S&P Global PMI (May)

·        Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

·        Ghana S&P Global PMI (May)

Thursday, June 6, 2024 

Global

·        The UN General Assembly is expected to elect five non-permanent members to the UN Security Council.  The likely new members are Denmark, Greece, Pakistan, Panama, and Somalia, and they will serve for two-year terms.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        President Biden will travel to France to participate in the D-Day commemoration ceremonies.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook at the Girls Global Academy 2024 Commencement Ceremony, University of the District of Columbia, Washington, D.C.

·        USA Challenger Job Cuts (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/01)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/31)

·        Mexico Auto Production (May)

·        Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Ivey PMI s.a (May)

·        Brazil Car Production MoM (May)

·        Ecuador Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Toyoaki Nakamura meets with local leaders and gives and speech in Sapporo, Japan.

·        Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/01)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/01)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·        Philippines Unemployment Rate (April)

·        Australia Balance of Trade (April)/ Investment Lending for Homes (April)

·        Taiwan Inflation Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        The European Union Parliamentary elections take place through June 9.   The election is expected to result in a strong right-wing surge of members.  Once the new parliament is seated in September, they will choose and approve new European Commissioners and also nominate the President of the European Commission (currently, Ursula von der Leyden, who is running for re-election).  You can follow the results HERE.

·        French President Emmanuel Macron will host world leaders in Normandy to commemorate the anniversary of D-Day.  Macron has angered allies by inviting a representative of the Russian government to attend.  Ukrainian President Zelensky is expected to attend, as well.

·        Nothing significant to report.

·        Today is Sweden National Day.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        The European Central Bank meets to discuss monetary policy.  There will be a press conference afterward.

·        Ireland AIB Services PMI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·        Switzerland Unemployment Rate (May)

·        Romania Retail Sales (April)

·        Hungary Retail Sales (April)

·        Slovakia GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ Retail Sales (April)

·        Spain Industrial Production (April)

·        Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/Marginal Lending Rate

·        France HCOB Construction PMI (May)

·        Germany HCOB Construction PMI (May)

·        Italy HCOB Construction PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·        Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (May)

·        Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/31)

·        Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Israel Business Confidence (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        South Africa Current Account (Q1)

·        Nigeria Balance of Trade (February)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Balance of Trade (January)

·        Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Friday, June 7, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·        Mexico Inflation Rate (May)

·        Canada Unemployment Rate (May)/ Participation Rate (May)/ Capacity Utilization (Q1)

·        USA Unemployment Rate (May)/ Participation Rate (May)/ Average Weekly Hours (May)/ Wholesale Inventories MoM (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (June/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (April)

·        Costa Rica Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        Japan’s Self-Defense Force (SDF) will participate in the US military’s “Valiant Shield” military exercises through June 18.  The exercises normally take place around Guam, the Northern Marianas Islands, and Palau.

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        New Zealand Manufacturing Sales YoY (Q1)

·        Japan Household Spending (April)/ Coincident Index Prel (April)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (April)

·        Philippines Industrial Production (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·        Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (May)

·        China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·        Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·        Thailand Consumer Confidence (May)

·        India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/31)

·        Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·        Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·        Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        NATO’s Baltic Operations 2024 exercises begin in Lithuania.

·        Today is Sette Giurno in Malta, a national holiday.  It celebrates nothing in particular – it’s just a day off for everyone.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in Atelier Maurice Allais 2024 organized by Fondation Maurice Allais in Paris.

·        European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on a panel discussion at the Federal Ministry of Finance in Berlin.

·        Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production MoM (April)

·        Romania GDP Growth Rate YoY 2nd Est (cQ1)

·        Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (May)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (May)

·        Hungary Industrial Production YoY Prel (April)/ Budget Balance (May)

·        France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·        Slovakia Balance of Trade (April)

·        Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·        Euro Area Employment Change YoY Final (Q1)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY 3rd Est (Q1)/ European Parliament Election

·        Greece Balance of Trade (April)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

·        Ireland Current Account (Q1)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ GNP YoY (Q1)/ Industrial Production (April)

·        Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·        Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·        Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ Business Confidence (Q2)

Saturday, June 8, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        French President Emmanuel Macron will host President Biden for an official state visit to France.  They are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine and Macron may use the occasion to announce France is sending military trainers to Ukraine.

·        Ireland holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Euro Area European Parliament Election

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a deadline set by National Unity leader and war cabinet member Bennie Gantz to submit a six-point plan for post-war Gaza.  Gantz has said that if Netanyahu fails to do this, Gantz’s centrist party will withdraw from the governing coalition and likely trigger a new election.  According to recent polls, close to 70 percent of Israeli voters want Netanyahu to step down and new elections to be held soon.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 9, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        China Vehicle Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections.

·        Belgium holds parliamentary and regional elections.

·        Germany holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Today is National Heroes Day in Uganda, honoring the estimated 500,000 people who died in the Uganda Bush War that took place between 1981 and 1986.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

May 26 - June 2, 2024

While it will be a quiet week in the US with the Memorial Day holiday and the official beginning of Summer, it will be a hectic week worldwide.  Markets will be watching a number of major events this week, particularly the China-Japan-South Korea trilateral meeting in Seoul, South Korea.  The leaders of the three nations are meeting together for the first time since 2019.  Tensions between the three nations have increased in recent years as Japan and South Korea have grown closer to the US in a bid to better defend themselves against the growing Chinese presence in the region as well as North Korea’s enhanced missile capability and growing belligerence toward them.  China is Japan and South Korea’s largest trading partner and while no breakthroughs are expected, is part of a new effort to reduce those tensions and maintain strong economic relations. 

Markets will be watching as two significant elections are held this week and one massive election moves into its final stage. First, in Mexico, voters will choose a new president. Former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, an ally of current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), is expected to win, making her Mexico’s first woman president. Markets are watching this election closely as Sheinbaum is expected to continue AMLO’s populist economic policies, which have often clashed with business interests in the country.

Second, South Africa holds presidential and parliamentary elections. President Cyril Ramaphosa is likely to be elected for a second term that will keep him in office until 2029. South Africa, a member of the BRICS, has grown closer to Russia and China in recent years and more hostile to the US and other Western countries.  Recall it was the South African government who filed the case charging Israel with committing genocide against Palestinians in the International Court of Justice while claiming neutrality in the Ukrainian War while increasing trade and conducting joint naval drills last year with Russia and China.

India moves to the seventh and final stage of its six-week national elections. More than 970 million people were eligible to vote.  Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are expected to retain power and likely expand it in the country’s 543-seat parliament.  But expectations for a sweeping BJP electoral super-majority win are now being tempered as polling suggests opposition parties may have done somewhat better than expected.  The final results will be announced on June 4.  The final stage comes one day after India announces GDP figures on Friday which are expected to be at least 8 percent for Q1.

There will be a flurry of activity in Europe this week, with significant meetings and visits. EU and NATO foreign ministers will be meeting to discuss the situation in Ukraine and Gaza, underscoring the importance of these geopolitical hotspots. Additionally, French President Emmanuel Macron will make a State Visit to Germany – the first state visit of a French President to Germany in 24 years. This extraordinary visit, which will also include a joint meeting of the French and German cabinets, aims to address a long list of issues and bring the two nations closer together. The strained relations between the two countries over energy, economics, and other issues in recent years make this visit particularly significant.

It will not be all quiet in the US this week. On Tuesday, closing arguments in the criminal trial of former President Trump begin in New York. The Ohio State Legislature has been called back into a special session to vote on a bill allowing President Biden to be added to the November ballot. Due to a glitch in Ohio law and the timing of the Democratic Presidential Convention in August, Biden is currently not on the ballot. The legislature failed to correct this before they went out of session last week, forcing Governor Mike DeWine to call them back. 

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, markets will be looking closely at important inflation data from the US (including the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), Europe, Japan, and China. In particular, Germany will release its May CPIs on Wednesday, while Italy, France, and the Eurozone will release CPIs on Friday. The Federal Reserve will release the latest Beige Book, and the European Central Bank will release the important consumer expectations survey.  

Below are the rest of the significant political events and economic reports we are watching this coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

Sunday, May 26, 2024

Global

• UN Secretary-General António Guterres will travel to Antigua and Barbuda to take part in the fourth International Conference on Small Island Developing States. He will first attend the High-Level Closing Session of the Small Island Developing State Business Network.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Former President Trump will address the Libertarian Party’s National Convention in Washington, D.C.  Independent Candidate Robert Kennedy, Jr. addressed the Convention yesterday.  Both candidates are seeking the support and endorsement of the Party, and it is the first time the Party has allowed non-party candidates to address and appeal to the party.

• Today is Independence Day in Guyana, marking the day the country gained its independence from the UK in 1966.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The leaders of China, South Korea, and Japan will meet in Seoul, South Korea, through May 27 for their first trilateral summit since 2019.  South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, Chinese Premier Li Qiang, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will discuss mutual trade and security issues.  It is the first time the trilateral has been held since 2019.  Japan and South Korea both are both major trading partners with China but with the two nations growing closer to the US, tensions have increased.

• Japan's Shizuoka prefecture will hold a gubernatorial election, which will serve as an indicator of the prospects of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in the country's next general election.

• Cambodia and China will conduct "Golden Dragon" military exercises through May 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Russian President Vladimir Putin begins a two-day visit to Uzbekistan.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Spain. 

• French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to Germany for a three-day state visit through May 28.  It is the first state visit by a French leader in 24 years.  According to the German and French governments, "find points of convergence between France and Germany on subjects of the future like technology, innovation, artificial intelligence."

• Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda faces a runoff election in his bid for a second term against Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte, a rematch of the 2019 elections

• President of the European Council Charles Michel may meet with the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Palestinian Authority (TBC).

• Georgia celebrates Independence Day today, marking the day it gained its freedom from Russia in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

• European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech on "Climate change and monetary policy" at Festival dell'Economia di Trento 2024 in Trento, Italy.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Manufacturing Production (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 27, 2024

Global

• The World Health Organization (WHO) will hold its  77th World Health Assembly in Geneva, Switzerland. The organization is seeking a final agreement on a global pandemic treaty to deal with any future pandemic.

• The UN’s fourth International Conference on Small Island Developing States is taking place in Antigua and Barbuda, organized by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and the United Nations Office of the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States (UN-OHRLLS).

• UN Secretary-General António Guterres will address the opening ceremony of the Conference, where he will reiterate the UN’s support for the aspirations of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) – from halting and mitigating the impacts of the climate crisis to building resilient economies and fostering safe, healthy and prosperous societies. He will also call on the international community to support SIDS in the challenges they face and will underscore that SIDS is a test case for climate justice and financial justice.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Congress is out of session this week in honor of the Memorial Day holiday. Banks and financial markets are closed.

• Peru will host a meeting of senior finance officials for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Urubamba, Peru.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to participate in policy panel discussion on “The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Policy Instruments" before the 2024 Bank of Japan - Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference in Tokyo, Japan.

• Brazil Bank Lending (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

• Canada Wholesale Sales MoM Prel (April)/ CFIB Business Barometer

• Mexico GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Industrial Profits (YTD) (April)

• Taiwan Consumer Confidence (May)

• Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at the 2024 BOJ-IMES Conference Hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, in Tokyo.  Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will also give a speech.

• Japan Coincident Index Final (March)/ Leading Economic Index Final (March)

• Indonesia M2 Money Supply (April)

• Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (May)

• Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• As announced last week, Norway, Ireland, and Spain formally recognize a State of Palestine.

• Cabinets of France and Germany for joint talks chaired by Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron in Berlin, Germany.

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Brussels through May 28.  The Foreign Affairs Ministers are expected to discuss the Russian aggression against Ukraine after an informal exchange of views with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, who is foreseen to join the beginning of the meeting via videoconference to provide updates on the latest developments on the ground and Ukraine’s current priorities.  They will also discuss the situation in Georgia in the wake of the passing of the highly controversial “foreign agent” law as well as the situation in Venezuela and Venezuelan President Maduro’s ongoing interference in free and fair elections. They will also discuss the situation in Gaza.

• Georgia parliament set to adopt the highly controversial 'foreign influence' bill.

• IAEA chief Rafael Grossi is expected to visit Moscow for talks on Zaporizhzhia, the nuclear power plant in Ukraine that has been under attack by Russian forces.

• The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  They are expected to discuss current crisis situation in the agricultural sector. The Council will follow up on the responses that have already been provided and those that are currently envisaged, while also focusing on the future of crisis management.

• The Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region – Brussels Eight Conference will be held in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

• In the UK, it is the Spring Bank holiday. Financial Markets are closed.

• European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a keynote speech on "Inflation in the Eurozone" at the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) in Dublin, Ireland.

• Turkey Business Confidence (May)/ Capacity Utilization (May)

• Germany Ifo Business Climate (May)/ Ifo Current Conditions (May)/ Ifo Expectations (May)

• Poland Unemployment Rate (April)

• Slovenia Business Confidence (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The African Development Bank holds its annual meeting in Nairobi, Kenya.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Ghana Interest Rate Decision

• Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (May)

• Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (May)

Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Global

• UN Secretary General António Gutteres Secretary-General will take part in the High-Level Meeting on Resource Mobilization for Small Island Developing States in Antigua.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: The role of women and young people.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The Financial Information Forum of central banks of Latin America and the Caribbean will meet in Mexico City, Mexico.

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Moldova for meetings with President Maia Sandu to discuss Moldova’s progress on EU accession and energy security.

• Ohio Governor Mike DeWine has called a Special Session of the State Legislature to deal with a bill that will put President Biden on the state’s November ballot.  The legislature failed to pass the bill last week before adjourning. 

• Closing arguments in the criminal trial of former President Trump will begin in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “AI and the Economy” at the Al-nomics: The Nexus of GenAI+ the Economy at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in San Francisco, California.  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly will also speak and host the event.

• Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to speak and participates in panel before the Barclays-CEPR International Monetary Policy Forum in London.

• Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (May)/ PPI (April)/ Net Payrolls (April)

• Canada PPI (April)/ Raw Materials Prices (April)

• USA S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (March)/ House Price Index (March)/ Fed Kashkari Speech/ CB Consumer Confidence (May)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Money Supply (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann travels to Indonesia for talks with President Joko Widodo about next steps for the nation’s entry into the OECD.  Indonesia was granted accession status to the 38-member organization in February 2024.  Indonesia hopes to complete the accession process within the next 2 to 3 years, thus making the country more attractive to foreign investment.

  The SEMICON Southeast Asia 2024 trade show begins in Kuala Lumpur.  The three-day event brings together thousands of electronics companies from China, Japan, South Korea, Europe, and the US.Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Australia Retail Sales MoM Prel (April)

• Malaysia PPI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The European Economic Area Council meets in Brussels.  The EEA Council will discuss the overall functioning of the EEA Agreement and hold an orientation debate on the role of the green transition in Europe’s competitiveness: challenges and opportunities.

• Today marks the Founding of the Democratic Republic of Azerbaijan in 1918.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann will speak at the Barclays-CEPR International Monetary Policy Forum in London.

• ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot will speak at the Barclays-CEPR International Monetary Policy Forum in London.

• European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at the 2024 BOJ-IMES conference on "Price Dynamics and Monetary Policy Challenges - Lessons Learned and Going Forward" in Tokyo, Japan.

• Euro Area ECB Schnabel Speech

• Germany Wholesale Prices (April)

• Slovenia Retail Sales (April)

• France Unemployment Benefit Claims (April)/ Jobseekers Total (April)

• Ireland Retail Sales (April)

• Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Composite Economic Index (April)

• Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is National Day in Ethiopia, marking the day when the Derg – the dictatorial reign of Mengistu Hailie Marian, ended in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, May 29, 2024

Global

• The Artic Congress 2024 is held through June 3 in Bodø, Norway.

• The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in roundtable with local leaders to hear about business conditions and municipal and community services in New York.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in a moderated conversation on “Economic Outlook and Leadership" before the American Economic Association Conference on Teaching and Research in Economic Education in Atlanta, Georgia.

• Brazil IGP-M Inflation (May)/ Gross Debt to GDP (April)/ Nominal Budget Balance (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

• Federal Reserve’s Beige Book is released/USA MBA Purchase Index (May/24)/ Redbook (May/25)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Richmond Fed Services Index (May)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (May)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/24)

• Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (April)/ Construction Work Done QoQ (Q1)/ Monthly CPI Indicator (April)

• New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (May)

• Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Toyoaki Nakamura gives a speech to local leaders in Sapporo, Japan.

• Japan Consumer Confidence (May)

• Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

• Vietnam Balance of Trade (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

• Singapore Export & Import Prices (April)/ PPI (April)

• India M3 Money Supply (May/17)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (June)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (May)/ Bavaria CPI (May)/ Brandenburg CPI (May)/ Hesse CPI (May)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (May)/ Saxony CPI (May)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)

• France Consumer Confidence (May)

• Spain Retail Sales (April)

• Euro Area Loans to Companies (April)/ Loans to Households (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)

• Italy Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

• Poland Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)

• Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (May)

• Greece Total Credit (April)

• Russia Industrial Production (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Morocco will host the GITEX Africa conference in Marrakech through May 31, and attendees will discuss Africa's prospects in the fields of artificial intelligence and digital growth.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Qatar Balance of Trade (April)

• Jordan Industrial Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• South Africa holds presidential elections and elections for the 400-member National Assembly. They will also vote on nine provincial legislatures. The parliament will then select the president. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) is likely to remain in power through a slim majority or through a coalition with several smaller parties. President Cyril Ramaphosa is likely to be elected for a second term (until 2029 ).

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, May 30, 2024

Global

• The UN the Security Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution renewing the mandate of the UN Assistant Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), and on South Sudan sanctions and on Libya [SCR 2292]. This will be followed with a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria). In the afternoon, a briefing at the Council is expected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi.

• The AI for Good Summit will be held in Geneva, Switzerland. The summit will bring together governments, non-profit research institutions, corporations and international organizations to discuss how to regulate AI.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to the Czech Republic for meetings with Foreign Minister Jan Lipavasky.  He will also participate in an informal meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak before hybrid Signature Luncheon event hosted by the Economic Club of New York.

• Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to speak before the Borderplex Alliance Distinguished Speaker Series in El Paso, Texas.

• Mexico Unemployment Rate (April)/ Fiscal Balance (April)

• Canada Current Account (Q1)/ Average Weekly Earnings (March)

• USA GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est (Q1)/ Corporate Profits QoQ Prel (Q1)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May)/25/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/18)/ Real Consumer Spending QoQ 2nd Est (Q1)/ Pending Home Sales (April)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/24)

• Chile Unemployment Rate (April)

• Argentina Consumer Confidence (May)

• Uruguay Unemployment Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Hong Kong national security courts is expected to hand down a final verdict on the case of 47 activists and former lawmakers.

• The 10th China-Arab States Cooperation Forum is held in Beijing.

• Vanuatu holds a constitutional referendum. Voters will be asked whether they approve of several proposed amendments to the constitution regarding the regulation of political parties and motions of no confidence.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand Building Permits (April)

• Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Building Permits MoM Prel (April)/ Building Capital Expenditure QoQ (Q1)/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure QoQ (Q1)/ Private Capital Expenditure QoQ (Q1)/ Private House Approvals MoM Prel (April)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (May)

• Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May/25)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/25)

• Philippines PPI (April)

• Singapore Bank Lending (April)

• Taiwan GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The UK Parliament will be dissolved in advance of the general election in July.

• Spain’s Parliament will vote on an amnesty bill for Calatagan separatists.

• There will be an informal meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs in Prague, Czechia.  

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss trade and competitiveness and the future of EU trade policy, the state of play of trade and investment relations between the EU and Africa, and the follow-up to the 13th World Trade Organization Ministerial Conference (MC13).

• The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) meets in Brussels. Energy ministers will approve conclusions on sustainable electricity grid infrastructure, followed by a discussion on the future of REPowerEU.  They will also discuss the European Green Deal and how it can help transform the EU into a modern, resource-efficient, and competitive economy.  They will also discuss the final and updated national energy and climate plans submitted by member states, which are instrumental in achieving the Green Deal objectives and agreed EU-wide targets. They are also expected to formally adopt the decision on the withdrawal of the EU and Euratom from the Energy Charter Treaty, together with the decision on the position to be taken on behalf of the EU and Euratom in the upcoming Energy Charter Conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

• The European Central Bank and a number of European financial markets and banks are closed for the Corpus Christi holiday.

• Ireland Consumer Confidence (May)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)

• Great Britain Car Production (April)

• Switzerland SNB Jordan Speech/ Balance of Trade (April)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)/ KOF Leading Indicators (May)

• Romania Unemployment Rate (April)

• Slovakia Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

• Spain Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)/ Business Confidence (May)

• Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (April)/ Economic Confidence Index (May)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/24)

• Italy Unemployment Rate (April)/ PPI (April)

• Euro Area Economic Sentiment (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Consumer Confidence Final (May)/ Industrial Sentiment (May)/ Services Sentiment (May)

• Greece PPI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

• Russia Unemployment Rate (Q1)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China.  bilateral relations between the two countries and opportunities for further cooperation and collaboration, especially in the economic, developmental, and cultural fields.

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Madagascar holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• The World Bank’s board will meet to decide on Kenya’s funding under development policy financing, which would lead to the release of between $900 million and $1.2 billion for budget support.Nothing significant to report.

• South Africa M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Sector Credit (April)/ PPI (April)/ Budget Balance (April)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, May 31, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will participate in the International Institute for Strategic Studies hosts the Shanri-La Dialogue in Singapore.  He is expected to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Admiral Dong Jun.  It will be the first meeting between the two defense leaders, and they are expected to discuss tensions with Taiwan and other security issues in the Indo-Pacific.  Austin will then travel on to Cambodia for meetings with senior officials and then to France to mark the 80th Anniversary of D-Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give commencement speech at Augusta Technical College, in Augusta, Texas.

• Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

• Canada GDP (March)/ Budget Balance (March)

• USA Core PCE Price Index (April)/ Personal Income (April)/ Personal Spending (April)/ Chicago PMI (May)

• Chile Copper Production (April)/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

• Colombia Unemployment Rate (April)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (April)

• Brazil Balance of Trade (May)

• Uruguay Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The International Institute for Strategic Studies hosts the Shanri-La Dialogue in Singapore. The Dialogue has become one of the most important independent forums for the exchange of views by international security policy decision-makers. Besides the host nation, countries that have participated in the dialogue have included most Asian countries, as well as those from North America and Europe.

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

• Japan Unemployment Rate (April)/ Jobs/applications ratio (April)/ Tokyo CPI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Industrial Production YoY Prel (April)/ Housing Starts (April)/ Construction Orders (April)

• Australia Private Sector Credit (April)/ Commodity Prices (May)

• China NBS General PMI (May)

• Thailand Industrial Production (April)

• Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision/ Inflation Rate (May)

• Malaysia M3 Money Supply (April)

• Thailand Current Account (April)/ Private Consumption & Investment (April)

• Hong Kong Retail Sales (April)

• Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

• India Government Budget Value (March)/ Government Budget Value (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/24)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NATO’s “Steadfast Defender 24” military exercise concludes.  The largest NATO military exercise held since the end of the Cold War began in January.

Economic Reports/Events –

• France Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ (Q1)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ PPI (April)

• Germany Retail Sales (April)/ Import Prices (April)

• Hungary Balance of Trade Final (March)/ PPI (April)

• Switzerland Retail Sales (April)

• Turkey GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)/ Financial Stability Report

• Italy GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May)/ Industrial Sales (March)/ New Car Registrations (May)

• Spain Current Account (March)

• Slovenia Inflation Rate (May)

• Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (April)/ M4 Money Supply (April)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (April)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (May)

• Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash (May)/ CPI Flash (May)

• Greece Retail Sales (March)

• Ireland Average Weekly Earnings YoY (Q1)/ Construction Output YoY (Q1)

• Russia Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ Corporate Profits (March)/ M2 Money Supply (April)

• Ukraine Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

• South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (May)

• Kenya Inflation Rate (May)

Saturday, June 1, 2024

Global

• The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will meet in Geneva, Switzerland, to discuss production quotas.

• South Korea takes the Chair of the UN Security Council for the month of June.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele is inaugurated for a second term.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• India begins the 7th round of voting.

• Today is Independence Day in Samoa, marking the day in 1962 when the country gained independence from New Zealand.

 significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Iceland holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Kenya celebrates Madaraka Day, marking the day the country gained independence from the UK in 1963.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 2, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Mexico holds presidential, senatorial, and chamber of deputy’s elections.  Claudia Sheinbaum (ruling party MORENA) is expected to win against her opponent, Xochitl Galvez (opposition party PAN).

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Serbia reruns Belgrade’s December elections. The rerun is a result of complaints of widespread voter fraud.

• Italy celebrates Republic Day today, marking the day in 1946 when the country voted to become a republic following the end of World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

May 24 - 27, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

European Union Elections 2024

• European Parliament Elections 2024: What Is at Stake?    Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy/ZBW/CEPS

  In June 2024, EU citizens will vote in the European Parliament elections – two years into Russia’s war in Ukraine and on European values, after the COVID-19 pandemic and the finalization of Brexit, and with the possibility of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election later this year. In a turbulent geopolitical environment, the European Parliament elections will reshape the political landscape in Brussels, where traditional parties are being challenged and an increasing tilt towards right-wing governance is unmistakable. The current European Commission has adopted several major legislative initiatives, but a new Commission may set new priorities and take a different political direction. In the lead-up to the elections, this Forum focuses on some of the issues that will take center stage for voters and define the next phase of European politics.

• EU Election 2024: Complete Guide to News, Polls, and Key Players   Politico EU

  The 2024 European Parliamentary elections are going to be held from June 6 – 9.  It is the first European Parliamentary election since Brexit (of which the UK’s previous seats were distributed to other countries)and will elect 720 members of the European Parliament to choose the European Commission President and help to decide the makeup of the European Commission going forward.  This election is expected to be one of the more contentious as a number of far-right parties have emerged as ahead in polls.  This site carries all the latest polls and analysis of what is going on election-wise.

• Winds of Change: The EU’s green agenda after the European Parliament election   European Council on Foreign Relations

  The next European Commission and Parliament are likely to place security and competitiveness at the center of their quest for a more geopolitical Europe.  With concerns about the costs of the green transition, growing trade tensions between the US and China, and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the US presidential election and Russia’s war on Ukraine, the EU will probably find it much harder to make further progress on climate action over the next five years. These geopolitical developments – and the way the EU responds to them – will have far-reaching consequences for the EU’s trade and technology decisions, fossil fuel phase-out, and climate diplomacy. The case for climate action remains clear, including its role in European security and competitiveness. In this challenging context, climate progressives will have to deploy compelling narratives, strategic resourcing, and diplomatic engagement to advance the best possible climate agenda during the EU’s next institutional cycle.
  

• The Front-Runners for the Next European Commission   Politico EU

  The European Commission’s top jobs will all soon be up for grabs again after next month’s European election. Which country will get the all-powerful trade commissioner job and oversee the EU’s impending trade war with China? Will the Poles secure a newly created defense portfolio to square up to their arch-rivals, the Russians? And who will get to police U.S. tech giants like Apple and Google as Europe’s next competition chief? Even before the June 6-9 election, maneuvering is underway to net the prize slots. Each of the EU’s 27 countries gets a commissioner job in the highly political post-election carve-up, but there’s a tooth-and-nail fight to determine who gets what. Trade and competition are the blue-ribbon portfolios with genuine power; those involving sport, education, and multilingualism are the kiss of death.   

India

• India’s Engagement with the Middle East Reflects New Delhi’s Changing Worldview   War on the Rocks

  In the early 1990s, India responded to the end of the Cold War with a new “Look East” policy, which it subsequently rebranded as “Act East” in 2014. Today, India has developed a “Think West” policy focused on what those in the West call the Middle East. So which way is India thinking, looking, and acting today?

Africa

• Rethinking US Africa Policy Amid Changing Geopolitical Realities   Texas National Security Review

  Since 2020, Africa has seen more political unrest, violent extremism, and democratic reversals than any other region in the world. A wave of coups has washed across the Sahel and West Africa, leaving authoritarians in power in numerous countries. In addition, the continent has served as a stage for the escalating great-power competition between China, Russia, and the United States. U.S. engagement with Africa has long been deprioritized in Washington, with successive administrations devoting scant attention and resources to advancing democracy and resolving conflicts. Thus far, the Biden administration has maintained this pattern, which reflects the persistent tension between an interests-based and values-based U.S. foreign policy. Nevertheless, there are a few actions the United States can take to reinvigorate democracy and stabilize the region, such as emphasizing development and diplomacy over military responses and stepping up cooperation with allies and partners to reduce the influence of China and Russia.

Political Economy

• Austerity, economic vulnerability, and populism    American Journal of Political Science

  Governments have repeatedly adjusted fiscal policy in recent decades. We examine the political effects of these adjustments in Europe since the 1990s using both district-level election outcomes and individual-level voting data. We expect austerity to increase populist votes, but only among economically vulnerable voters, who are hit the hardest by austerity. We identify economically vulnerable regions as those with a high share of low-skilled workers, workers in manufacturing, and in jobs with a high routine-task intensity. The
  analysis of district-level elections demonstrates that austerity increases support for populist parties in economically vulnerable regions,  but has little effect in less vulnerable regions. The individual-level analysis confirms these findings. Our results suggest that the success of populist parties hinges on the government’s failure to protect the losers of structural economic change. The economic origins of populism are thus not purely external; the populist backlash is triggered by internal factors, notably public policies

• Social Security’s Financial Reality is Worse Than Reported   American Enterprise Institute

  The Social Security Trustees recently released their annual Report on the projected finances of the program. The media, advocates, and the Commissioner himself trumpeted that the Report had good news: The program’s finances have improved over the prior year, the projected Trust Fund exhaustion date had moved out a year to 2035, and the automatic benefit cuts upon insolvency were smaller, 17 percent instead of the 20 percent estimated in the prior year’s Report.  A closer look, however, reveals this optimism is misplaced.  The report fails to accurately reflect long-term declines in fertility rates. When the trend toward lower fertility is incorporated accurately in future Reports, the picture of the program’s finances will look much worse, and therefore, the realistic cost of needed reforms will rise.

• Consulting Firms Have Stumbled Into a Geopolitical Minefield   Foreign Policy

  Not so long ago, consultancies and other information brokers could work easily with different clients in different countries. Just as they talked to competing firms, they advised competing governments. But what may have seemed banal then may now be depicted as smoking gun evidence that companies are helping the enemy. For decades, business leaders assumed that globalization meant market expansion. Their big worry was gaining and keeping market share and competing with their rivals. Now, they are being thrown unprepared into a world where globalization means geopolitical risk—and information is the riskiest asset of all.

• How Do US Firms Withstand Foreign Industrial Policies?   National Bureau of Economic Research

  China’s industrial policies (“Five-Year Plans”) displace U.S. production/employment and heighten plant closures in the same industries as those targeted by the policies in China. The impact was not anticipated by the stock market, but U.S. companies in the "treated industries" suffered a valuation loss afterward. Firms shift production to upstream or downstream industries benefiting from the boost or offshore to government-endorsed industries in China. Such within-firm adjustments offset the direct impact. U.S. firms are better able to withstand foreign government interventions provided that they enjoy flexibility, including preexisting business toeholds in the "beneficiary" industries, financial access, and labor fluidity.