The Global Week Ahead

Canada, Australia, and Singapore Hold Elections, Japan and South Korea Talk Trade MOUs in Washington, India-Pakistan Tensions Continue to Rise, BRICS Foreign Ministers Meet,  the Bank of Japan Considers Interest Rates Amidst a Small Flood of Global Economic Reports

April 27 - May 4, 2025

Coming off the whirlwind of last week's World Bank/IMF Spring meetings in Washington, the geopolitical/geoeconomic week ahead will be almost as busy.   First, Canada, Australia, and Singapore hold elections this week.  We are particularly focused on Monday's Canadian elections, which, according to polls, strongly suggest the incumbent Labor Party – only months ago destined for defeat – is poised to make an extraordinary comeback under the leadership of current Prime Minister Mark Carney. 

Carney used President Trump's punitive tariffs on illegal immigration and Fentanyl trafficking, along with Trump's antagonistic suggestions that Canada should become the US's 51st state, to rally the Labor Party and the country to keep him in power.  The only question now is how large a margin Labor wins.

Sticking with tariffs, there are three important events to watch this week.  We expect to see South Korean and Japanese trade negotiators in Washington for further talks and possibly signing Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) with the Trump Administration.  The question markets are focused on is whether the MOUs effectively suspend US tariffs on both countries and how long that suspension will last.   Also, this week, the Trump Administration's tariffs on important auto parts go into effect, which will likely result in increased auto prices.

Meanwhile, in Brazil, the BRICS foreign ministers will meet in Rio de Janeiro this week.  Top of the agenda will be the Trump tariffs and a discussion on how to accelerate their goal of establishing alternative trade and financial systems.  The foreign minister meetings will be followed by a meeting of BRICS national security advisors to discuss how to work more closely on security and intelligence sharing.

Moving to the Middle East, the US is expected to meet with Iranian officials again on April 26 for another round of talks on Iran's nuclear program.  That meeting — and all future meetings—will be negotiating highly technical/highly complicated aspects of Iran's uraninium enrichment program, which will likely make the talks much tougher and slower.

We are also watching closely the devolving situation between India and Pakistan.  Tensions rose massively following a militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir last week that killed 26 people.  India shut the border with Pakistan, suspended all visa services for Pakistan nationals, and suspended the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan, which is reliant on the sharing of the river water.  The two nations have always had, at best, working relations that sporadically nosedives because of events like the one in Kashmir.  Considering both countries have large nuclear arsenals, it is never good to see them ramp up tensions.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, the coming week will see a number of important economic indicators released in most of the major economies.   In the US, there will be no Federal Reserve speeches as the Fed goes into its two-week Blackout Period before its May interest rate meeting.  Markets (and the Fed) will look at the April jobs data on Friday, the core March PCE and Q1 GDP on Wednesday, the ISM manufacturing index on Thursday, and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report and JOLTS data on Tuesday.  In addition, the US Treasury will release its updated borrowing estimates on Monday.

Turning to Asia, the Bank of Japan meets on Thursday to consider interest rates.  Consensus suggests the Bank will hold rates.  Japan will also be releasing industrial production numbers and retail sales on Wednesday and consumer confidence survey on Thursday – which will be interesting to see if there is movement in the wake of the Trump tariffs.   In China, the April PMIs and the Caixin manufacturing index are out on Wednesday – again, likely to be interesting early indicators of the impact of the Trump tariffs. 

Moving to Europe, Germany, France, and Italy release CPIs on Wednesday.  The Eurozone CPI is out on Friday.  Additionally, Q1 GDP reports for Germany, France, Italy, and the Eurozone are out on Wednesday, too.  Consumer confidence reports for Germany and Italy are out on Thursday, as is the European Central Bank's consumer expectations survey.

Below is what else we are tracking around the world in the week ahead:

Sunday, April 27, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Federal Election

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will visit Vietnam through April 29.

·       The secretary general of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Sanae Takaichi, will lead a delegation to China through April 29.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (March)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 28, 2025

Global

·       The BRICS Foreign Ministers will meet in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil through April 29.

·       The BRICS Heads of ‘space agencies will meet in Brazil.

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. In the afternoon, there is a private meeting on non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada holds federal elections.  The ruling Liberal Party looks on track to retain power with Prime Minister David Carney staying in the prime minister seat.

·       The US Congress returns to work after a two-week recess for the Easter/Passover holidays.

·       Trinidad and Tobago elections for their House of Representatives.

·       The Cayman Islands hold parliamentary elections as well as vote on a referendum on the decriminalizing of cannabis, funding for new cruise berth infrastructure, and the legalization of gambling in the form of a national lottery.

·       Amazon is scheduled to launch the first 27 satellites or tis Project Kuiper, its fast internet network. The network is seeking to rival Elon Musk’s Starlink system.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Current Account (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (March)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Malaysia PPI (March)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       India Manufacturing & Industrial Production (March)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Environmental Ministers through April 29 in Warsaw, Poland.

·       In Brussels, NATO will hold a ceremony to mark the 70th anniversary of German accession to the military bloc.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank will publish its 2024 Annual Report.  ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will present the report to the ECON Committee in Brussels.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (March)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (March)/ Jobseekers Total (March)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (February)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East.  UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (April)/ Bank Lending (March)/ Net Payrolls (March)

·       USA Goods Trade Balance (March)/ Redbook (April/26)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (February)/ House Price Index (February)/ JOLTs Job Openings (March)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/25)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will visit the Philippines through April 30.   He will meet with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. to discuss mutual security issues and China’s growing military presence in the region as well as the US tariffs.

·       The Indonesia Electric Vehicle Show begins in Jakarta.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor for Financial Markets Christopher Kent will give a speech at the Bloomberg Conference in Sydney, Australia.

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q1/ Export Prices (March)/ Import Prices (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q1

·       Philippines Budget Balance (March)

·       Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and attend the fourth Turkey-Italy intergovernmental summit in Rome, Italy. 

·       In Poland, 13 EU member states that border the Baltic, Adriatic and Black seas, begin a two-day summit in Warsaw for the Three Seas Initiative.  The Initiative  seeks to improve political and commercial relations together among the 13 countries.

·       Japan celebrates Showa Day. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone will give the welcoming speech on "Financial and trade fragmentation: risks and policy alternatives" at the joint BIS, Bank of England, ECB and IMF Spillover Conference 2025 "Policy challenges in a fragmenting world: Global trade, exchange rates, and capital flows" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Sharon Donnery will give the keynote speech on "What are the ECB’s plans for 2025? What are the regulatory priorities?" at the annual Conference on Banking Supervision organized by Handelsblatt in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking David Ramsden will give a keynote speech at the Innovate Finance Global Summit in London.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Hungary PPI (March)/ Deposit Interest Rate (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area Loans to Households (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)/ Economic Sentiment (April)/ Consumer Confidence Final (April)/ Industrial Sentiment (April)/ Services Sentiment (April)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)/ Business Confidence (April)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (March)/ Economic Confidence Index (April)/ Participation Rate (March)

·       Italy Business Confidence (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)/ Industrial Sales (February)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (March)

·       Great Britain BoE Ramsden Speech

·       Greece Total Credit (March)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan. In the afternoon, there is a private meeting on Myanmar.

·       The National Security Advisors of the BRIC member states will meet in Brasilia, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese trade negotiators will visit the United States for a second round of high-level talks on tariffs.

·       Today is the 100th day of the Trump Administration.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/25)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/25)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/25)/ ADP Employment Change (April)/ Employment Cost Index Q1/ GDP Price Index Q1/ PCE Prices Q1/ Real Consumer Spending Q1/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ Chicago PMI (April)/ Personal Income & Spending (March)/ PCE Price Index (March)/ Pending Home Sales (March)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (April/25)

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (March)/ Nominal Budget Balance (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Fiscal Balance (March)

·       Canada GDP (February)

·       Chile Copper Production (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (March)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (March)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Japan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Housing Starts (March)/ Coincident Index Final (February)/ Construction Orders (March)/ Leading Economic Index Final (February)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (April)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Australia Inflation Rate Q1/ CPI Q1/ Private Sector Credit (March)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q1/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q1/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (April)

·       China NBS Manufacturing & Non- Manufacturing PMI (April)/ NBS General PMI (April)/ Caixin Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (March)/ Business Confidence Q1

·       Thailand Industrial Production (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Current Account (March)/ Private Consumption & Investment (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (March)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       India Government Budget Value (March)/ M3 Money Supply (April/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential Policy David Bailey will give a speech at the Climate Financial Risk Forum in London.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Insurance Supervision  Gareth Trunan gives a speech at the 22nd Insurance Conference on Overseeing BPA Growth Safely.

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Household Consumption (March)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (March)

·       Germany Retail Sales (March)/ Import Prices (March)/ Unemployed Persons (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (April)/ Bavaria CPI (April)/ Brandenburg CPI (April)/ Hesse CPI (April)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (April)/ Saxony CPI (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (April)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (April)/ Economic Sentiment Index (April)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (March)/ Tourism Revenues Q1/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ ECB Montagner Speech

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (March)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (April)

·       Spain Current Account (February)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Greece PPI (March)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (April)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (April)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Russia Business Confidence (April)/ Real Wage Growth (February)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ GDP (March)

·       Ukraine Current Account (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (March)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe M3 Money Supply (March)/ Private Sector Credit (March)/ Budget Balance (March)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Egypt Current Account Q4

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (April)

Thursday, May 1, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/26)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI & Employment (April)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/01)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/30)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       A Chinese ban on foreign missionaries sharing their faith or establishing religious organizations will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Commodity Prices (April)/ PPI Q1

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Bank of Japan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision/Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q1

·       Indonesia Tourist Arrivals (January, February, & March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is a public holiday – May Day - in most of Europe.  Markets are closed.

·       In the UK, 24 English local elections will be held as well as six regional mayor races and by-election to decide two member of parliament seats.  The elections are seen as bellwether for how the ruling Labor Party is seen by voters and how Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party is faring.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Local Elections/ BoE Consumer Credit (March)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (March)/ M4 Money Supply (March)/ Net Lending to Individuals (March)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (March)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/25)

·       France Budget Balance (March)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Euro Area ECB Economic Bulletin/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (April)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe ABSA Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (April)

Friday, May 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Business Confidence (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (March)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (April)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (April)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (April)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Government Payrolls (April)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (April)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/02)/ Total Vehicle Sales (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Exports from China and Hong Kong will lose their qualification for U.S. de minimis duty exemptions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (March)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (March)/ Jobs/applications ratio (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (April/26)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/26)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/25)

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (April)/ Wholesale Prices (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Singapore General Elections

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (April)

·       Australia General Elections

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ CPI Flash (April)

·       France New Car Registrations (April)

·       Spain New Car Sales (April)

·       Italy New Car Registrations (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (April)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (March)

Saturday, May 3, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Trump Administration’s 25 percent tariffs on important auto parts go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Australia, federal elections will be held.  The ruling Labor Party is expected to lose its small majority in the lower house but retain enough power to form a minority government.

·       In Singapore, elections will be held.  The ruling People’s Action Party is expected to win again, as they have in every election since 1959.

·       South Korea's ruling People Power Party will select its candidate for the June 3 presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 4, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Milken Institute Global Conference begins in Beverly Hills, California and runs through May 8..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asian Development Bank annual meeting begins a four-day session in Milan, Italy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.