The Global Week Ahead

Jul 21

July 21 - 28, 2024

The coming week will likely be the decisive week for the political future of President Joseph Biden. Following weeks of growing calls from Democratic members of Congress and other Party leaders for him to withdraw from the 2024 presidential election, it appears the make-or-break moment is upon him and the nation. Reports in recent days have swung wildly from “He’s going to announce today and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris” to “He’s going to withdraw and let there be an open process” to “He’s not getting out no matter what – he’s in this to win.” No one seems to know exactly what the President is thinking or intends to do. The Democratic Presidential Convention begins in Chicago on August 19, so pressure literally grows by the day on the President to withdraw as more and more Democrats demand he stand down.

Elsewhere around the world this week, Venezuela holds presidential elections. Current autocratic President Nicholas Maduro has been badly harassing his political opponents – arresting many of them in the weeks leading up to the election on Saturday. And widespread fraud and vote rigging by Maduro is expected. Nevertheless, Maduro is trailing in the polls as the country has seen massive rallies in support of opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who is the proxy candidate for Maria Corina Machado whom Maduro banned from running.

In Beijing this week, Chinese officials are going to try to hammer out a deal between the long-competing Palestinian Hamas and Fatah factions to help broker a deal in Gaza. While the odds of an actual rapprochement between the two groups is unlikely, it is considered a small step in the right direction and shows China’s determination to increasingly play a global role.

Meanwhile, in Paris this week the Summer Olympics begin as the French Parliament continues to argue how to form a new working government following elections earlier this week.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, the G20 Finance and Central Bank Governors will gather in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Not much is expected to come from the meetings as there is too much disagreement on issues such as Ukraine, Gaza, the seizing of Russian assets, and other hot-button issues.

Also this week, the People’s Central Bank of China meets on rates as does the Bank of Canada. The US Federal Reserve goes quiet in advance of the Federal Markets Open Committee meeting the week after next. Markets are watching the Q1 GDP figures being released on Thursday and the PCE inflation release on Friday, both which will be influential on the Fed’s decision to begin cutting or not.

In Europe, Germany, Italy, and the Eurozone consumer confidence numbers are released.

Below are all the other major political and economic events and reports we are tracking this week:

Sunday, July 21, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Maldives Foreign Minister Moosa Zameer visits Beijing for high-level talks. China is seeking to broaden their relations with the Maldives in an effort to counter US relations in the region.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Officials from Palestinian Fatah, Hamas factions visit Beijing for talks moderated by the Chinese government. The two competing factions will seek to bridge the gap between them to help bring peace to the Gaza Strip.

· Israel will begin drafting ultra-Orthodox Jews for military service. The highly controversial order comes after the Israeli Supreme Court recently ruled, they could be drafted. Traditionally, ultra-orthodox Jews do not serve, and it is expected many draftees will resist.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 22, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council, chaired by Russia this week, is scheduled to hold a briefing on Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may meet with President Biden at the White House if the President tests negative for COVID (which he tested positive for last week).

· U.S. Secret Service director Kimberly Cheatle appears before the House Oversight Committee on Trump assassination attempt.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Economic Activity (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (June)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· Chile Inflation Rate (June)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan begins its annual military drills, the first under the new administration of President Lai Ching-te. His defense minister, Wellington Koo, has emphasized making the exercises more practical and less performative, amid growing concern over Chinese pressure and the threat of an invasion. The exercise will run for five days through Friday.

· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. will give his 3rd State of the Nation Address to the country. He is expected to heavily focus on growing tensions with China.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

· China People’s Central Bank decision on Loan Prime Rate 1Y/ 5Y (July)/ FDI (YTD) (June)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (June)/ Foreign Direct Investment (Q2)

· Taiwan Export Orders (June)

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (June)

· India Union Budget 2024

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers are expected to discuss the war in Ukraine and hear from the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba via videoconference. They will also discussion the situation in the Middle East, particularly in Gaza.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Justice and Home Affairs Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through July 23.

· The Farnborough International Airshow begins in England and runs through July 26.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts

· Bank of England Executive Director for Markets Victoria Saporta gives a speech at the AFME seminar entitled “The Future Bank of England Balance Sheet – Managing Its Transition Towards a New System for Supplying Reserves” in London.

· Greece Current Account (May)

· Poland Retail Sales (June)/ M3 Money Supply (June)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (June)

· Spain Consumer Confidence (June)

· Slovenia Unemployment Rate (May)

· Turkey Central Government Debt (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (May)/ Inflation Expectations (July)/ Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (June)

· Oman M2 Money Supply (May)/ Total Credit (May)

· Qatar Inflation Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, July 23, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA Redbook (July/20)/ Existing Home Sales (June)/ Richmond Fed Services & Manufacturing Index (July)/ Money Supply (June)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/19)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India’s new government delivers its new annual budget to Parliament. It is expected there will be significant new welfare programs for the poor and more funding requests for infrastructure.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea PPI (June)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (June)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Phillip Lane gives opening remarks at the joint conference of the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, and IMF Economic Review "Global Challenges and Channels for Fiscal and Monetary Policy" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (July)

· Euro Area ECB Lane Speech/ Consumer Confidence Flash (July)

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (July)/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (July)/ Overnight Lending Rate (July)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision

· Poland Unemployment Rate (June)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (July)

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply (June)/ Composite Economic Index (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (May)

· Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, July 24, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1701 report (the UN Mission to Lebanon).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu gives joint address to Congress. A large number of Democratic members of Congress are expected to skip the speech in protest over the situation in Gaza.

Economic Reports/Events –

· U S Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give pre-recorded video opening remarks at the Advance Together: Celebrating the Achievements of Texas Community Partnerships, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas, Texas

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/19)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (June)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv (June)/ Wholesale Inventories Adv (June)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ New Home Sales (June)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (July/19)/ Building Permits Final (June)

· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (July)

· Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Report and Press Conference

· Canada New Housing Price Index (June)/ Manufacturing Sales Prel (June)/

· Chile PPI (June)

· Paraguay PPI (June)

· Argentina Retail Sales (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (July)

· Australia Judo Bank Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)

· Japan Jibun Bank Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)

· Singapore URA Property Index Final (Q2)

· Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (June)

· India HSBC Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July/12)

· Philippines Budget Balance (June)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (June)/ M2 Money Supply (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Health Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through July 25.

Economic Reports/Events -

· European Central Bank Board Vice President Luis de Guindos chairs Session 5 at joint conference of the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, and IMF Economic Review "Global Challenges and Channels for Fiscal and Monetary Policy" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a policy panel "The global 'new normal': fragmentation, tensions, and uncertainty" at joint conference of the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, and IMF Economic Review "Global Challenges and Channels for Fiscal and Monetary Policy" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in an online conversation with Nicolas Véron at Financial statements series organized by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (August)/ HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)

· Hungary Gross Wage (May)

· Euro Area / HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)

· Spain PPI (June)

· France HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)

· Great Britain S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)

· Russia Corporate Profits (May)/ Industrial Production (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (June)/ Total Credit Growth (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The United States will host the Africa Trade and Economic Cooperation Forum in Washington, D.C., through July 26.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (June)

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (July)

Thursday, July 25, 2024

Global

· The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors gather in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil to meet through July 26. Ahead of the meeting, Brazil – which is chairing the G20 this year – announced a short joint statement was hammered out by the attending countries focusing on alignment on inequality, poverty, and climate change. Beyond that, there is expected to be not much agreement among the attendees.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security.       

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (July)/ Current Account (June)/ Foreign Direct Investment (July)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (July)/ Federal Tax Revenues (June)

· Canada Average Weekly Earnings (May)

· USA Durable Goods Orders (June)/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/20)/ GDP Growth Rate (Q2)/ GDP Price Index (Q2)/ Core PCE Prices (Q2)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (July/20)/ Real Consumer Spending (Q2)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/19)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (July)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/24)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (July)

· Colombia Business Confidence (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet in Vientiane, Laos. They are expected to discuss growing tensions with China as well as the situation in Myanmar.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (July)/ GDP Growth Rate (Q2)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (July/20)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/20)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (May)/ Leading Index (May)

· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ New Car Sales (June)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde attends the Paris Summit 2024 Sport for Sustainable Development (S4SD) "Faster, Higher, Stronger – Together For a Better Future" in Paris, France.

· Great Britain Car Production (June)/ CBI Business Optimism Index (Q3)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (July)

· France Business Confidence (July)/ Business Climate Indicator (July)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (June)/ Jobseekers Total (June)

· Turkey Business Confidence (July)/ Capacity Utilization (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/19)

· Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (June)/ M3 Money Supply (June)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate (July)/ Ifo Current Conditions (July)/ Ifo Expectations (July)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

· Greece Total Credit (June)

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (June)

Friday, July 26, 2024

Global

· The G20 Finance and Central Bank Governors Meeting being held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil concludes.

· The 2024 Summer Olympics begin in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (July)/ Wholesale Sales Prel (June)/ Budget Balance (May)

· Brazil Bank Lending (June)/ Net Payrolls (June)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (June)

· USA Core PCE Price Index (June)/ Personal Income & Spending (June)/ PCE Price Index (June)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/26)

· Venezuela Presidential Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (July)

· Japan Tokyo Core CPI (July)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (July)/ Coincident Index Final (May)/ Leading Economic Index Final (May)

· Singapore Unemployment Rate Prel (Q2)/ Industrial Production (June)

· Thailand Industrial Production (June)

· India Bank Loan Growth (July/12)/ Deposit Growth (July/12)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/19)

The Global Week Ahead

July 21 - 28, 2024

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Global Week Ahead