The Global Week Ahead

Jul 14

July 14 - 21, 2024

It will be an extraordinary week ahead. As the US and the rest of the world struggle to understand the attempted assassination attempt on former President Trump, the Republican Presidential Convention begins Monday, and we will learn in the next day or two who will be Trump's Vice-Presidential running mate. Meanwhile, we expect that US Democratic leaders will continue to discuss and pressure President Biden to withdraw from running for President – something the President has made clear he has no intention of doing. Polling data will be poured over perhaps more intensely than ever before, mainly to see the downstream implications for House, Senate, and gubernatorial races. We will be writing separately about all of this over the week as the event develops.

Meanwhile, in Beijing, the Chinese Communist Party convenes for their long-awaited Third Plenum meetings. Markets will mainly focus on what is said and decide how to further stabilize the Chinese economy in the wake of the ongoing real estate crisis and economic challenges. Also, in Asia this week, the 10th Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting will be held in Tokyo, Japan. Leaders will participate in the three-day summit-level meeting to discuss climate change and fisheries, but China's growing military presence in the region and impact on security and trade will be addressed.

In Europe, the new EU Parliament gets underway, formally organizes itself, and officially names Ursula von der Leyden as President for a second term. In London, King Charles gives the King's Speech to Parliament, laying out the legislative agenda of newly elected Prime Minister Kier Starmer and the Labor Party majority. And in Paris, the French National Assembly meets for the first time since the elections to attempt to hammer out some sort of coalition arrangement and pick a new prime minister. It is likely to be a prolonged and messy effort.

Looking at the global radar screen this week, markets are watching the European Central Bank meeting to see if the central bank moves to lower rates again—which most economists are not expecting. Also, in Europe, the UK releases inflation figures, Germany publishes PPI figures, and as mentioned above, King Charles' speech will lay out the UK's economic agenda going forward.

Looking to Asia, China releases its Second-Quarter GDP, and Japan publishes its CPI print. In the US, Fed Chair Jay Powell participates in a fireside chat with Carlyle Group Founder and Chair David Rubinstein (a terrific interviewer!) to discuss the economy and likely shed more light on when the Fed will begin to move on cutting rates.

Below is our comprehensive weekly laying out all the other key geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, July 14, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China and Russia hold joint naval exercises code-named “Exercise Joint Sea-2024” at the military port of Zhanjiang in South China’s Guangdong Province.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Communist Party of China Third Plenum/ PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ M1 Money Supply (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 15, 2024

Global

· The Olympic flame arrives in Paris in advance of the Summer Olympics.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. Republican Party National Convention begins in Milwaukee, Wisconsin through July 18.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Jay Powell participates in a conversation with David M. Rubenstein, Chairman of the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to participate in session, “The Bull, the Bear, and the Banker" before the Fortune Brainstorm Tech 2024.

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada Manufacturing Sales Final (May)/ Wholesale Sales Final (May)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (July) / NOPA Crush Report

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (June)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Chinese Communist Party Central Committee gathers to hold the Third Plenum meeting. The four-day event will offer a window on how Beijing plans to address the country's persistent property crisis, weak consumer demand and fading growth prospects. This particular meeting has a history of launching major economic initiatives -- including Deng Xiaoping's "reform and opening up" in 1978 -- but many analysts are tempering expectations. The meeting is expected to outline key policy initiatives to revitalize both consumer and business confidence and address the continued large drag from the property sector.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (June)

· China House Price Index (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q2/ NBS Press Conference/ Communist Party of China Third Plenum

· Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

· India WPI Food Index (June)/ WPI Fuel (June)/ WPI Inflation (June)/ WPI Manufacturing (June)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

· Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q2

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing & Services PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the economic and budgetary situation in the euro area and the fiscal policy stance for 2025. The chairman of the European Fiscal Board (EFB) Niels Thygesen is expected to present the recent EFB report on the fiscal stance of the euro area. The Eurogroup is also expected to adopt a statement on the fiscal stance for the euro area for 2025 ahead of the preparation of national budgets for next year.

· The 15th Meeting of the EU-Jordan Association Council takes place in Brussels. The session will be devoted to discussing bilateral relations, focusing on the implementation of the Association Agreement and the EU-Jordan new Partnership Priorities (2021-2027), which the Association Council adopted in 2022. During an informal lunch discussion, the Association Council will discuss political matters and notably regional and international issues.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. The ministers will hold a targeted discussion on ways to improve the long-term viability of rural areas, with a focus on generational renewal and demographic aspects. Among the 'other business' items on the agenda, the Hungarian presidency will publicly provide the Council with information on the outcome of the BIOEAST policy forum on advancing research and innovation in Central and Eastern Europe held in Brussels on 4 July 2024.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Energy Ministers through July 16 in Brussels. The meeting will concentrate on the decarbonization of the energy system. Related to this, the discussions will focus on issues such as the role of geothermal energy, the implementation of the 2030 energy policy framework and the role of the national energy and climate plans, a resilient, flexible, and integrated electricity system, and the contribution of the energy sector to the new competitiveness deal.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Retail Sales (May)

· Hungary Construction Output (May)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (June)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (June)

· Romania Current Account (May)

· Poland Inflation Rate Final (June)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account (May)

· Euro Area Industrial Production (May)/ Ecofin Meeting

· Ireland Balance of Trade (May)

· Russia Building Permits (May)

· Turkey Auto Production & Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Syria holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Unemployment Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Jordan Inflation Rate (June)

· Qatar Inflation Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Rwanda holds presidential and parliamentary elections. Incumbent President Paul Kagame will likely secure a fourth term, with the ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) likely to retain its majority in parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Food Inflation (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

Tuesday, July 16, 2024

Global

· G7 Trade Ministers meet in Reggio Calabria, Italy, through Wednesday. The main themes will be responding to the tensions and frictions which interfere with global trade and potential economic growth, and to streamline international trade through reform of the World Trade Organization. The session with non-member countries and business leaders will also be held to pay attention to the crisis in the Red Sea, which affects international trading routes and supply chains around the world, including the Indo-Pacific region.

· The UN Security Council, chaired by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of international peace and security: Multilateral cooperation in the interest of a more just, democratic, and sustainable world order.

· The IMF releases an updated World Economic Outlook with updated growth forecasts.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The four-day Aspen Security Forum begins in Colorado.

· Today is Amazon Prime Day, one of the largest online shopping events in the world.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives as speech entitled “Challenges Facing Economic Measurement and Creative Solutions” at the Economic Measurement Seminar hosted by the National Association for Business Economics in Washington, D.C.

· Canada Housing Starts (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI Median (June)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (June)

· USA Retail Sales (June) / Export Prices (June) / Import Prices (June)/ Redbook (July/13)/ Business Inventories (May)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (July)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/12)

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 10th Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting gets underway in Tokyo, Japan. Leaders will participate in the three-day summit-level meeting to discuss climate change and fisheries. Additionally, leaders will discuss the release of treated wastewater from Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant.

· Pakistan will observe a two-day public holiday for Ashura through July 17.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Export Prices (June)/ Import Prices (June)

· Japan Tertiary Industry Index (May)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (July/16)

· China Communist Party of China Third Plenum

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The first session of the new EU Parliament will begin. The constitution of the Parliament will be ratified, and a new President will be elected. Parliament’s first act after its constitution is to elect its President for the next two-and-a-half years (half the legislature). Eight members of parliament will be selected as tellers to oversee the election, held by secret paper ballot. To be elected, a candidate must win an absolute majority of the valid votes cast, i.e. 50% plus one. After the election of the President, MEPs will elect the rest of the members of Parliament’s Bureau: 14 Vice-Presidents and five Quaestors.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area ECB Bank Lending Survey/ Balance of Trade (May)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)

· Italy Inflation Rate (June)/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)/ ZEW Current Conditions (July)

· Poland Core Inflation Rate (June)

· Turkey Budget Balance (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (June)/ Wholesale Prices (June)

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, July 17, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook” at a Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Event with Governor Waller, Kansas City, Missouri.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to give informal remarks on the economy before the Greater Prince George's Business Roundtable.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/12)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/12)/ Building Permits Prel (June / Capacity Utilization (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (July/12)/ Fed Beige Book/ Housing Starts (June)

· Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (May)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Asia Development Bank releases its economic outlook report.

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (July)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (June)/ RBA Simon Speech

· Philippines Cash Remittances (May)

· Indonesia Loan Growth (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (July)

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (June)

· China Communist Party of China Third Plenum

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Workers at Charles de Gaulle and Orly airports strike over Olympic bonuses, staffing. The strike is expected to snarl the travel plans of an expected 350,000 travelers coming to Paris for the Olympics.

· King Charles gives the King’s Speech at the Opening of the new parliament, laying out the new legislative agenda of new Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labor Party majority.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain Core Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI Output (June)/ PPI Input (June)/ Retail Price Index (June)

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)

· Euro Area Inflation Rate Final (June)/ CPI Final (June)

· Ireland Residential Property Prices (May)

· Russia PPI (June)

· Belarus GDP (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Oman M2 Money Supply (May)/ Total Credit (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Retail Sales (May)

Thursday, July 18, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Accountability and Reform” at the Exploring Conventional Bank Funding Regimes in an Unconventional World hosted by the Dallas Reserve Bank in Dallas, Texas.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to give opening remarks before the "Exploring Conventional Bank Funding Regimes in an Unconventional World" conference co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to participate in fireside chat before the "Exploring Conventional Bank Funding Regimes in an Unconventional World" conference co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (July/13)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (July)/ CB Leading Index (June)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/12)/ Fed Logan Speech/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (May)/ Foreign Bond Investment (May)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (May)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/17)

· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (May)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (June)/ Economic Activity (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Indonesia International Auto Show begins in Jakarta.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July/13)

· Australia Employment Change (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ RBA Bulletin/ Participation Rate (June)

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (June)

· Sri Lanka PPI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The new French National Assembly meets for the first time following the recent elections. They will seek to find some sort of agreement on a new prime minister.

· EU parliament votes on new European Commission mandate for Ursula von der Leyen, securing her second term.

· There will be a meeting of the European Political Community at Blenheim Palace, England. Prime Minister Keir Starmer hosts the event where more than 50 European leaders plus the Presidents of the European Council, European Commission, and European Parliament will attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank Governing Council holds a monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, Germany. ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference following the meeting.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability Strategy and Risk Nathanaël Benjamin gives a speech entitled “Preparing for liquidity stresses” at an ISDA event hosted by the law firm Linklaters in London.

· Euro Area New Car Registrations (June)/ Construction Output (May)/ Deposit Facility Rate/ Marginal Lending Rate

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (June)

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (May)/ Claimant Count Change (June)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (June)

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (June)/ Employment Growth (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ PPI (June)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/12)

· Belarus Industrial Production (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (June)

· Israel Inflation Expectations (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· South Africa’s Parliament begins its first session under its unprecedented coalition.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (May)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

· Angola Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ M3 Money Supply (June)

Friday, July 19, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on Cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organizations in maintaining international peace and security: the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve Board, the US Treasury, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency hold a joint-virtual public meeting on the proposed acquisition by Capital One of Discover.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in "A New Era for Monetary Policy" panel before the BCRP-RBWC-IDB 15th Annual Conference: “The Rewiring of the Global Economy" organized by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee (RBWC), and Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give closing remarks before the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas/Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta "Exploring Conventional Bank Funding Regimes in an Unconventional World" conference.

· Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/19)

· Colombia Imports (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Canada Retail Sales (May)/ PPI (June)/ Raw Materials Prices (June)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (June)

· Argentina Leading Indicator (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan will host a joint military exercise with France, Germany, and Spain through July 25. This is the first time Japan has hosted the joint exercises with Spain and is part of the broader “Pacific Skies 2024” exercises.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Inflation Rate Q2

· Japan Inflation Rate (June)

· Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2

· Hong Kong Business Confidence Q3

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/12)

· China FDI (YTD) (June)

· Kazakhstan GDP (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (June)

· Germany PPI (June)

· Euro Area Current Account (May)

· Italy Construction Output (May)/ Current Account (May)

· Spain Balance of Trade (May)/ Consumer Confidence (June)

· Slovenia PPI (June)

· Russia Current Account (May)

· Slovakia Current Account (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Turkey Central Government Debt (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana PPI (June)

Saturday, July 20, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Colombian President Gustavo Petro is holding a rally of farmers to help him strengthen efforts for agrarian reform in the country. It is also Colombia’s Independence Day.

The Global Week Ahead

July 14 - 21, 2024

Sunday, July 14, 2024

Monday, July 15, 2024

Tuesday, July 16, 2024

Wednesday, July 17, 2024

Thursday, July 18, 2024

Friday, July 19, 2024

Saturday, July 20, 2024

Sunday, July 21, 2024

The Global Week Ahead

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