The Global Week Ahead

Dec 29

The New U.S. Congress Gets Sworn in, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu Undergoes Cancer Surgery, Will A Russian Gas Deal Get Renewed? And A Quiet Week for Global Markets

December 29, 2024 - January 5, 2025

2024 comes to an end much like it started: Russia's bloody war on Ukraine continues apace, violent conflict continues in the Middle East, and US and EU economic decoupling with China continues. But much has changed, too. In the Middle East, Hamas and Hezbollah have effectively ceased to be effective terrorist organizations, Syria has thrown off 50 years of horrific dictatorship, and Iran – the sponsor of most of the worst violent activities in the region – suddenly finds itself politically and militarily vulnerable while struggling with an increasingly brittle economy.

Meanwhile, the EU, Germany, France, and other member states are undergoing significant political shifts as voter sentiment moves more and more governments rightward, challenging existing norms on economic policy, immigration, and common security. China continues to struggle through deeply rooted internal economic stagnation just as a long-anticipated demographic spiral begins to impact it.

But keeping our focus on what is happening in the coming week, the world remains relatively quiet as we prepare for the New Year's Day holiday. The most significant events we are watching this week begin in Europe, as Poland takes over the Presidency of the Council of European Union from Hungary. Poland will hold the presidency for six crucial months as the EU debates how best to continue supporting Ukraine, deal with the situation in the Middle East, and navigate the ongoing internal EU debate on how to handle trade with China and the US and growing demands to increase the overall security of the EU. There will be national elections in Germany in February, while France will continue to struggle with a badly splintered parliament, which will considerably shift the political calculus in 2025.

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is undergoing major surgery to remove his prostate after falling ill on Friday. His illness comes as Israel has begun to conduct airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have been targeting Israel with missile strikes in recent weeks, and as combat operations continue in Gaza and tensions remain high on the Lebanese border and Syrian border.

Also this week, a deal allowing Russian natural gas to transit through Ukraine to the EU ends on December 31. Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico – who met with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week in Moscow – is pressing Ukraine to renew the agreement and, until that is accomplished, allow the flow of gas to continue. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Fico of striking “shadow agreements” with Russia and has vowed to end Russian gas flowing through Ukraine, as Zelensky says it only helps fund the Russian war machine. The loss of the Russian gas supply would have a significant negative economic impact on Slovakia and Hungary, but it is seen as “negligible” to European gas prices overall.

Turning to the US, the new 119th Congress is sworn into office on Friday. Republicans take control of the Senate while in the House, Republicans will hold one of the slimmest majorities in US history in the House. Markets are watching closely to see if the current Speaker of the House, Michael Johnson (R-LA), will be re-elected on Friday. At least one Republican has said he will not vote for Johnson, and if there are any more defections, Johnson will likely be removed from the Speakership.

Finally, we would note that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen formally notified Congress this past Thursday that the debt limit will be reached between January 14 and 23, requiring "extraordinary measures" to keep the government operational. Thus, the new Congress immediately is under pressure to pass both a final 2025 budget and a likely necessary debt ceiling increase.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the holiday-shortened week means economic data are sparse. In the US, markets watch November home sale figures on Monday and ISM PMI figures on Friday. In Europe, Germany's unemployment figures will be out later this week, along with S&P PMIs for all the major European countries. In Asia, markets are anticipating China's PMI reports.

Below is our weekly report of everything we are watching worldwide this coming week. We want to wish you a joyful New Year!

Sunday, December 29, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Bolivia will announce the results of its judicial elections held on December 15. Bolivia and Mexico are the only countries in the world that elect their judiciary.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Mongolia Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its freedom in 1911 from the Qing China dynasty.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Croatia holds the first round of its presidential elections.

· Georgia will hold its presidential inauguration. Tensions remain high in the country and mass protests are likely to be held in opposition to the swearing in of Mikheil Kavelashvili.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to undergo prostate removal surgery.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (November)/ Private Bank Lending (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Chad holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 30, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a meeting on threats to international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (November)/ Nominal Budget Balance (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (December)

· Chile Unemployment Rate (November)

· USA Chicago PMI (December)/ Pending Home Sales (November)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (December)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (December)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account Q3

· Panama Current Account Q3

· Mexico Fiscal Balance (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Rizal Day in the Philippines, a national holiday. The day commemorates the life and works of Jose Rizal, a national hero who was a doctor and novelist who condemned the Spanish rule of the Philippines.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (December)

· Philippines PPI (November)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Thailand Retail Sales (October)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

· Sri Lanka Current Account Q3

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (December)

· Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence (December)

· Spain Inflation Rate (December)/ Current Account (October)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (December)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (December)

· Greece PPI (November)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

· Russia M2 Money Supply (November)

· Ukraine Current Account (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· French Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu and Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot are expected to visit Beirut, Lebanon to discuss current security issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Israel M1 Money Supply (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

· Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q3

· South Africa Budget Balance (November)

· Angola Wholesale Prices (November)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (November)

Tuesday, December 31, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canada will release a final report on a year-long investigation into foreign interference in Canada’s federal electoral processes and democratic institutions

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chile Copper Production (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

· USA Redbook (December/28)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (October)/ House Price Index (October)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/27)

· Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q3

· Colombia Cement Production (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is International Solidarity Day of Azerbaijanis, a national holiday in Azerbaijan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Inflation Rate (December)

· China NBS General/ Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Singapore Bank Lending (November)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (November)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (December)/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Unemployment Rate Q3

· India Government Budget Value (November)/ Infrastructure Output (November)/ External Debt Q3

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· At midnight, a deal allowing the flow of natural gas from the eastern border of Russia through Ukraine to Slovakia and Hungary is set to expire unless a last-minute agreement can be reached.

· Ground staff at airports in Portugal are expected to go on strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (November)

· Greece Retail Sales (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· African Union peacekeeping mission ATMIS due to end mandate in Somalia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (November)/ Private Sector Credit (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

Wednesday, January 1, 2025

Global

· Happy New Year! Welcome, 2025!

· Canada takes the chair of the G7 for 2025 from Italy which chaired the group in 2024.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Haitian Independence Day, celebrating the day in 1804 when slavery was abolished – making it the first country in the Western Hemisphere to abolish slavery.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

· Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Poland takes the rotating EU Presidency through July 1, 2025.

· Bulgaria and Romania officially join the EU Schengen Agreement.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Sudan Independence Day, commemorating the day was granted its independence in 1956 from Great Britain and Egypt.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, January 2, 2025

Global

· Algeria takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of August. Also today, there will be a there will be a flag Installation ceremony for new members of the UN Security Council: Denmark, Greece, Pakistan, Panama and Somalia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Prosecutors are expected to summon President Dina Boluarte to testify about her secret nose surgery. The issue is she apparently kept the surgery a secret and “abandoned” her duties in order to undergo the procedure. Boluarte has a 3 percent approval rating.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (November)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market/ Refinance/ Purchase Index (December/27)/ MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/27)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/28)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (December/21)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Construction Spending (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December/27)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/02)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/01)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (December)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Mexico S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Peru Inflation Rate (December)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Malaysian Court of Appeal holds a hearing on ex-Prime Minister Najib Razak's appeal for house arrest. Razak is already serving a six-year jail term for corruption related to plundering the country’s sovereign wealth fund 1MDB.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (December)/ Commodity Prices (December)

· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Adv Q4/ URA Property Index Q4/ SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Indonesia Inflation Rate (December)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (December)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (November)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Netherlands NEVI Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/27)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (December)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (December)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)/ New Car Sales (December)

· Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Loans to Companies & Households (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Total Credit (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (December)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (December)

Friday, January 3, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The 119th United States Congress is sworn into office. The House of Representatives will decide on whether the current Speaker of the House, Michael Johnson (R-LA), will remain in the role or elect a new Speaker.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Maryland Bankers Association First Friday Economic Outlook Forum.

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ Business Confidence (December)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

· Colombia Exports (November)

· USA ISM Manufacturing PMI/ Prices/ Employment/ New Orders (December)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (December/27)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/03)/ Total Vehicle Sales (December)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea GDP Growth Rate Adv Q4

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (December/28)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/28)

· Singapore Retail Sales (November)

· Thailand Business Confidence (December)

· India Bank Loan Growth (December/20)/ Deposit Growth (December/20)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/27)

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (December)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a panel entitled "Geopolitical Fragmentation" hosted by the American Finance Association (AFA) at annual meeting of American Economic Association (AEA)/Allied Social Science Associations (ASSA) in San Francisco, California.

· Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)/ MPC Meeting Summary

· Hungary Balance of Trade (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

· Spain Unemployment Change (December)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

· Germany Unemployment Change/ Persons/ Rate (December)

· Poland Inflation Rate (December)

· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (November)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (November)/ M4 Money Supply (November)/ Net Lending to Individuals (November)

· Greece Unemployment Rate (November)

· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (December)

· France New Car Registrations (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, January 4, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will chair a panel on "Banking in an Inflationary Environment" hosted by American Economic Association (AEA) in San Francisco, California.

The Global Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

Recommended Weekend Reads