The Global Week Ahead
April 21 - 28, 2024
As Israeli-Iranian tensions seem to be receding, events in China this week will likely garner the most attention from global markets. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Beijing for talk arriving just as the U.S. Congress passes legislation granting a military aid package to Taiwan (as part of the Ukraine/Israel military aid package) along with legislation banning TikTok from operating in the U.S., the release of a tough House of Representatives report detailing the Chinese Governments' role in supporting the fentanyl trade, and less than a week after President Biden announced his intention to triple tariffs on some Chinese steel imports.
Blinken is expected to press Chinese leaders to step back from providing Russia with substantial dual-use technologies and materials that are being used by the Russian military in its war on Ukraine. All in all, it will not be a leisurely visit for Blinken.
Amid Blinken's visit, China's National People's Congress meets this week to discuss new anti-money laundering laws, a second and final review of a major pending Tariff Law, and consideration of new national nuclear energy laws.
Also, this week, even though the Israeli counter-strike on Iran was seen as de-escalatory, markets and political leaders around the world will continue to watch the situation warily. Israel begins the observation of Passover Monday night (which goes through April 30), and the hope is the situation in Gaza cools down enough for renewed negotiations with Hamas for the release of Israeli hostages (something Turkish President Recep Erdogan met with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Istanbul to discuss). But all indications from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding a planned assault on the Gaz city of Rafah seem to be on track, despite the pleas from President Biden and other Western leaders not to do so.
Turning the global economic radar screen, markets will be focused on the U.S.'s Q1 GDP reading and U.S. personal income and outlays reports. Among those reports is the Federal Reserve's favorite economic metric—the personal consumption expenditures price index—which they use to factor in interest rates. Moving to Europe, the purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) for the Eurozone and important economic data from Germany and France will be released, giving the European Central Bank more guidance on rates going forward.
Looking at Asia this coming week, the big event will be on Friday when the Bank of Japan meets to decide on interest rates while Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) is also being released.
Below is what else of note we are watching around the world this coming week:
Sunday, April 21, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The Colombian government and the National Liberation Army will hold peace negotiations in Venezuela through April 22.
· Colombian opposition groups will protest the government of President Gustavo Petro in major cities.
· In Rio de Janeiro, supporters of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will protest the criminal case against him.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Maldives hold parliamentary elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will jointly open with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre the Hannover Messe, one of the largest industrial trade fairs in the world.
· The Basque region of Spain will hold local elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Turkish President Recep Erdogan continues a series of diplomatic meetings in the Middle East. He met late last week with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Istanbul to discuss the release of Israeli hostages. He now goes on to Iraq for discussions with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani about the situation in Iraqi Kurdistan and the operations of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) whom Turkey considers to be terrorist.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Inflation Expectations (April)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The UN’s African Science, Technology, and Innovation Forum will take place in Addis Ababa through April 22.
· The Connected Africa Summit 2024 will be hosted by Kenya’s information ministry in Nairobi.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, April 22, 2024
Global
· The Jewish festival of Passover begins tonight and goes through April 30.
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). Also in the morning, the Security Council will resume a debate on Maintenance of international peace and security: The role of young persons in addressing security challenges in the Mediterranean. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The opening arguments will be made in the criminal trial of former President Donald Trump in New York. The case revolved around alleged hush money being paid to former porn star Stormy Daniels.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Mexico Economic Activity (February)
· Canada New Housing Price Index (March)/ PPI (March)
· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (March)
· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision
· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (March)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Philippines and the U.S. commence the 39th Balikatan military exercises. The training exercise includes plans to simulate the sinking of an enemy warship and retaking territory from hostile forces. An estimated 16,700 personnel from both sides participate.
· Indonesia’s Supreme Court is expected to rule on Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto’s presidential election victory in February. He won the election, but the two losing candidates charged there were widespread irregularities.
· In New Delphi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to make an announcement with Elon Musk about the opening of a major Tesla factory ($3 billion) in India.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Loan Prime Rate 1 & 5Y
· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (March)
· Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)
· Taiwan Export Orders (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)
· Sri Lanka PPI (February)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The European Parliament's plenary session will convene through April 25 for the last time before the upcoming EU elections in June. During this session, the Parliament is set to discuss new corporate due diligence requirements under the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive. They will also likely move on new amendments to the Common Agricultural Policy following widespread protests across the EU by farmers angry at export laws.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board President Christine Lagarde gives the Presidential lecture at Yale University.
· Euro Area Government Budget and Debt to GDP 2023/ Consumer Confidence Flash (April)
· Turkey Consumer Confidence (April)
· Poland Employment Growth (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)
· Ireland Wholesale Prices (March)
· Great Britain CBI Industrial Trends Orders (April)
· Slovenia Unemployment Rate (February)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi travels to Pakistan to meet with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military leaders. In January, Iran launched a series of missiles and drones into Pakistan’s Baluchistan province against the Iranian Baloch militant group, Jaish ul-Adi. Raisi then travels to Sri Lanka for meetings with President Wickremesinghe.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Kuwait Inflation Rate (March)
· Jordan Industrial Production (February)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The African Counter-Terrorism Summit held in Abuja, Nigeria. President Bola Tinubu, in conjunction with the UN, will host representatives from the African Union and West African bloc Ecowas.
· The 5th Africa Climate Talks, hosted by the African Union Commission’s African Climate Policy Centre and African Development Bank, will take place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
· The African Counter-Terrorism Summit held in Abuja, Nigeria. President Bola Tinubu, in conjunction with the UN, will host representatives from the African Union and West African bloc Ecowas. The Summit goes through April 25.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (February)
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Women and peace and security: Conflict-related sexual violence.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· USA Redbook (April/20)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ New Home Sales (March)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Services Index (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/19)/ Building Permits Final (March)
· Argentina Economic Activity (February)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· China’s National People’s Congress meets through April 26. The agenda items to be discussed are likely to include money laundering laws, give a second review of a pending Tariff Law, and consider energy related laws.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea PPI (March)
· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)
· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)
· India HSBC Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)
· Singapore Core Inflation Rate (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)
· Taiwan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)
· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (March)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· EU Health Ministers will hold informal meetings through April 24 in Brussels.
· Today is St George’s Day. It is celebrated in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Catalonia, Croatia, Cyprus, England, Georgia, Greece, North Macedonia, Portugal, Romania, and Serbia.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in a roundtable on AI organized by Regulation Partners in Lanzarote (Canary Islands), Spain.
· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the London campus of the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business.
· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)
· Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (March)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)
· France HCOB Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)
· Germany HCOB Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)
· Poland Retail Sales (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)
· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (April)
· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (April)/ Interest Rate Decision
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (February)
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Great Lakes region. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to Non-proliferation, and it is also scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The Bank of Canada releases the summary of deliberations from the most recent interest rate decision.
· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (April)
· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/19)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (April/19)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 7 to 10 yrs.
· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (April)
· Canada Retail Sales (February)
· Chile PPI (March)
· Paraguay PPI (March)
· Argentina Retail Sales (February)
· El Salvador Balance of Trade (March)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be in Beijing for meetings with senior Chinese officials. This follows the recent visit of U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Blinken is expected to discuss the Ukraine War, President Biden’s recent announcement of his intent to triple tariffs on Chinese steel, the U.S. Congress’ newly passed ban on TikTok, and other major issues.
· Indonesia will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation's 57th working group on small and midsize enterprises in Bali through April 25.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Consumer Confidence (April)
· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)
· Australia Inflation Rate (Q1)/ CPI (Q1)/ RBA Trimmed Mean and Weighted Median CPI (Q1)
· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (April)/ Loan Growth (March)
· Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (April)
· Taiwan M2 Money Supply (March)
· Philippines Budget Balance (March)
· Thailand New Car Sales (March)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· North Macedonia holds the first round of presidential elections. The vote comes in the midst of heightened tensions between the country’s Albanian minority and Macedonian majority. If no candidate wins an outright victory, a run-off election will take place on May 8, which will coincide with the country’s planned parliamentary elections.
· Russian President Vladimir Putin may hold a meeting of the Council on Interethnic Relations.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Vice President Piero Cipollone gives the keynote speech at the ECB retail payments conference 'Strengthening an innovative and integrated European retail payments market' in Frankfurt, Germany. Later in the day, he chairs a panel entitled "Strengthening the European retail payments landscape: Public and private sectors join forces" at the conference.
· ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul chairs a plenary session and delivers concluding remarks at a high-level seminar on "Governance and risk culture: going forward by looking back" jointly organized by the ECB and the Florence School of Banking and Finance of the European University Institute (EUI), in Florence, Italy.
· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives opening remarks at "Frankfurt liest ein Buch" organized by Frankfurt liest ein Buch e.V. in Frankfurt, Germany. Later in the day, she gives the opening speech at the Inaugural conference of the ChaMP Research Network "Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World ("ChaMP")."
· ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen gives the keynote speech at a high-level seminar on "Governance and risk culture: going forward by looking back" jointly organized by the ECB and the Florence School of Banking and Finance of the European University Institute (EUI), in Florence, Italy.
· Hungary Gross Wage (February)
· Turkey Business Confidence (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)
· Germany Ifo Business Climate (April)
· Italy Business and Consumer Confidence (April)
· Poland Unemployment Rate (March)
· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (April)
· Slovenia Business Confidence (April)
· Russia Corporate Profits (February)/ Industrial Production (March)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)
· Qatar M2 Money Supply (March)/ Total Credit Growth (March)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to resume an open debate on the Middle East.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil Current Account (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)/ Federal Tax Revenues (March)
· Canada Average Weekly Earnings (February)
· USA GDP Growth Rate (Q1)/ GDP Price Index (Q1)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/20)/ Real Consumer Spending Adv (Q1)/ Pending Home Sales (March)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing and Composite Index (April)
· Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)
· Colombia Business Confidence (March)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Beijing International Automotive Exhibition begins in Beijing. Chinese and global automakers will be showcasing their latest models.
· Today is Anzac Day, celebrating the unity of Australia, New Zealand, and the UK in defense efforts and honoring the military dead. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will visit Papua New Guinea, where he and Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister James Marape will commemorate Anzac Day.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Business Confidence (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q1)
· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/20)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/20)/ Coincident Index Final (February)/ Leading Economic Index Final (February)
· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (March)
· Malaysia Inflation Rate (March)/ Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Index (February)
· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· French President Emmanuel Macron will deliver a speech on the future of the European Union at the Sorbonne University in Paris, France.
· Italy celebrates National Liberation Day, commemorating the end of Nazi fascism in the country.
· Portugal celebrates Freedom Day, commemorating the Carnation Revolution in 1974 when, which threw off the military dictatorship.
· In London, the CBI National Business Dinner is held. The event is attended by senior figures from business, politics, and media. Traditionally addressed by a senior member of the government.
· Venice becomes the first city in the world to charge a daily access fee to day-trippers (€5) to tourists on day trips to the Italian city. It does not apply to those staying overnight and only applies on 29 dates between today and July 14, when there is peak tourist activity.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a lecture at the Academia Europea Leadership in Barcelona, Spain.
· Ireland Consumer Confidence (April)
· Great Britain Car Production (March)/ CBI Distributive Trades (April)
· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (May)
· France Business Confidence (April)/ Business Climate Indicator (April)/ Jobseekers Total (March)
· Spain PPI (March)
· Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending and Borrowing Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/19)
· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa PPI (March)
Friday, April 26, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Former British Virgin Islands premier Andrew Fahie, faces sentencing after being convicted of conspiracy to import a controlled substance, conspiracy to commit money laundering, interstate and foreign travel in aid of racketeering, and other charges.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (April)/ Manufacturing Sales Prel (March)/ Budget Balance FEV
· Brazil Bank Lending (March)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (April)/ Net Payrolls (March)
· Mexico Balance of Trade (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)
· USA PCE Price Index (March)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/26)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (April)
· Bank of Japan board will meet to discuss and decide interest rates, Japan Tokyo CPI (April)/
· Australia PPI (Q1)/ Import and Export Prices (Q1)
· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (April)IL
· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)
· Malaysia PPI (March)
· Singapore Industrial Production (March)
· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/19)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Berlin, Germany, to discuss the situation in Ukraine and additional military support for the Ukrainian military.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Euro Area M3 Money Supply (March)/ Retail Sales (March)
· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (April)
· Hungary Unemployment Rate (March)
· France Consumer Confidence (April)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (March)
· Spain Unemployment Rate (Q1)/ Retail Sales (March)
· Slovenia Retail Sales (March)
· Greece Total Credit (March)
· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Business Confidence (April)/ Real Wage Growth (February)/ Retail Sales (March)/ GDP (March)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (April)
· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (March)
Saturday, April 27, 202
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The White House Correspondents’ Association Annual Diner is held in Washington, D.C. President Biden will address the audience.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (March)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Slovenia celebrates the Day of Uprising Against Occupation, commemorating the day when the Liberation Front of the Slovene Nation was formed in 1941 to fight the Nazi occupation.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Sierra Leon’s Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its independence from the UK in 19671.
· Togo celebrates Independence Day, marking the day in when the Togolese Republic was established in 1960.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, April 28, 2024
Global
· G7 Climate, Energy, and Environmental Ministers meet in Torino, Italy.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Mexico’s three presidential candidates will participate in the 2nd televised presidential debate, which will focus on economic development, infrastructure building, and employment.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan holds by-elections for three seats in the Diet’s lower chamber. The elections come at a time when the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are at record-low poll numbers due to the handling of a political slush fund scandal.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· The Democratic Republic of Congo holds elections for provincial governors and vice governors.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.