Global Calendar May 15 - 22, 2022
This is Fulcrum Macro Advisors’ weekly calendar of key political and economic events we are watching in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine’s continues to dominate geopolitical and geoeconomics events this coming week. We expect the historic formal announcement from both Sweden and Finland requesting NATO membership. The EU is expected to continue pushing forward with new sanctions on Russia as well as announce new rules around Russia natural gas imports. Additionally, the US will hold a Ministerial Level meeting in New York Tuesday to discuss growing global food security issues as the US Senate is expected to approve a $40 billion military and economic aid package to Ukraine.
Later in the week, President Biden heads to South Korea and then to Japan where he is expected to unveil his long-awaited Indo Pacific Economic Framework.
Economically, we will be watching on Tuesday newly-reconfirmed US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s speech at the Wall Street Journal’s “Future of Everything” Conference as well as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday, as well.
Here is what else we are watching politically and economically around the world this coming week:
Sunday, May 15, 2022
Political/Social Events –
Switzerland holds referendum on contribution to the European Border and Coast Guard Agency.
Finland to announce intention to join NATO.
Germany’s state of North Rhine-Westphalia holds regional elections.
EU-US Trade and Technology Council 2nd meeting held today and tomorrow in France (watch for possible announcement on a deal for EU-US Privacy Shield replacement).
Total Lunar Eclipse (“Blood Moon”) will be visible across North and South America as well as parts of Europe and Africa.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing Significant to report.
Monday, May 16, 2022:
Political/Social Events:
EU Foreign Affairs Council meets regarding Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, a possible new round of sanctions and oil embargo against Russia, as well as sharing views on current situation in Western Balkans.
Greece’s Prime Minister Mitsotakis meets with President Biden in Washington, D.C.
EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.
EU-Canada Joint Ministerial Committee meeting.
Armenia and Azerbaijan to hold first in a series of bilateral meetings on border tensions overseen hosted by Russia in Moscow.
India hosts Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s anti-terror meeting.
First draft of Chile’s new constitution to be finalized for internal revision.
Somalia to hold presidential elections.
Economic Reports/Events:
Americas:
US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler to speak at the FINRA 2022 Annual Conference in Washington DC where he is expected to address the SEC’s agenda and crypto regulation.
US NY Empire State Manufacturing Sales (Mar)
Canada Housing Starts (Apr), Manufacturing Sales (Mar), Wholesale Sales (Mar)
Brazil Central Bank Focus Market Readout, I(BC-Br Economic Activity (Mar)
Asia:
China Industrial Production (Apr), Retail Sales (Apr), Unemployment rate (Apr)
Japan PPIs, Machine Tool Orders (Apr),
Europe:
Germany Whole Prices (Apr)
UK Bank of England Monetary Policy Report Hearings
Eurozone Balance of Trade (Mar)
European Commission Spring Forecasts
Middle East:
Saudi Arabia inflation rates (Apr), Wholesale Prices (Apr)
Turkey Current Account (Apr), Budget Balance (Apr)
Africa:
Nigeria reports inflation figures (Apr)
Tuesday, May 17, 2022:
Political/Social Events:
EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) will meet to discuss the situation in Ukraine and concurrently hold a meeting of the European Defense Agency.
Finnish President Sauli Niinisto to visit Sweden to discuss both countries application to NATO and mutual security concerns.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to participate in “Ukraine 30. Digitalization Forum”
Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari to visit US for meetings with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and to attend global food security meeting in New York.
The corruption trial of former South African President Jacob Zuma continues.
The United Nations hosts the 54th Conference of Africa Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development in Dakar, Senegal.
US Congressional Primaries are being held in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Economic Reports/Events:
Americas:
Federal Reserve Board Chair Powell to give a speech at Wall Street Journal’s “Future of Everything” Conference in New York City and online.
US Retail Sales (Apr), Industrial Production (Apr), Manufacturing Production (Apr), Business Inventories (Mar), Retail Inventories (Mar), NAHB Housing Market Index (May)
Asia:
Australia Royal Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
India WPI for Food (Apr), Manufacturing (Apr), Fuel (Apr), and Inflation (Apr),
Indonesia Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (Apr)
Japan Tertiary Industry Index (Mar), GDP Growth Rate figures, GDP Capital Expenditures (Q1), Price Index (Q1), Reuters Tankan Index (May),
Malaysian Central Bank meeting
Europe:
ECB President LaGarde speech ECB President Christine Lagarde to speak at Soroptimist International-Club Darmstadt in Darmstadt, Germany
France Unemployment Rate (Q1)
UK Employment Change (Feb), Labour Productivity ((Q1),
Italy Balance of Trade (Mar), Inflation rate (Apr)
Spain Balance of Trade (Mar)
Eurozone Employment Change and Growth Rate (Q1)
Middle East:
Nothing of significance to report.
Africa:
South Africa Business Confidence (Apr).
Wednesday, May 18, 2022:
Political/Social Events:
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to host a Global Food Security Ministerial in New York.
European Commission expected to publish legislative proposals ending the EU’s reliance on Russian natural gas.
Pakistan expected to begin negotiations with the International Monetary Fund on a support package.
Economic Reports/Events:
Global:
G-7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Germany.
Americas:
US MBA reports mortgage applications, 30-Mortgage Rate, Mortgage Refinance Index, Purchase Index (all for May); Housing Starts and Building Permits (Apr); EIA reports Crude Oil Stocks as well as Gasoline Stocks, Crude Oil Imports, Refinery Crude runs
Canada inflation rate figures (Apr)
Asia:
Australia Westpac Leading Index (Apr), Wage Price Index figures
China House Price Index (Apr)
Japan Industrial Production (Mar), Capacity Utilization (Mar), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (all for Apr), Machinery Orders (Mar)
Europe:
ECB holds a non-Monetary Policy Meeting
Russia GDP Growth Rate ((Q1)
UK Inflation figures (Apr), PPIs (Apr) Retail Price Index (Apr)
Eurozone Inflation Rate Figures (Apr)
Middle East:
Nothing significant to report.
Africa:
South Africa Inflation rate figures (Apr), Retail Sales (Apr)
Zambia Central Bank interest rate decision
Ghana PPIs (Apr)
Thursday, May 19, 2022:
Political/Social Events:
NATO Defense Ministers to meet in Brussels, Belgium.
APEC holds trade ministers meeting in Bangkok, Thailand (May 18/19/20).
Economic Reports/Events:
Americas:
US Initial Jobless Claims (May), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May), Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions (May) Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (May), Philadelphia Fed Employment (May); US Existing Home Sales (Apr), CB Leading Index (Apr)
Canada Raw Material Prices (Apr), New Housing Price Index (Apr), PPIs (Apr)
Argentina Balance of Trade (Apr), Economic Activity (Mar), Leading Indicators (Apr)
Asia:
Australia Unemployment Rate/Full-Time Employment change figures (Apr); Current Account (Mar)
Japan Inflation Rate Figures (Apr)
South Korea PPIs (Apr)
Europe:
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
Eurozone Current Account (Mar), Construction Output (Mar)
Italy Current Account (Mar)
UK CBI Industrial Trend Orders (Mar), Gfk Consumer Confidence (May)
Middle East:
Nothing significant to report.
Africa:
South Africa Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Building Permits (Mar)
Friday, May 20, 2022:
Political/Social Events:
President Biden arrives in South Korea for three-day summit.
Foreign Ministers from Council of Europe members states to meet in Turin, Italy to discuss mutual response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) meets in Brussels.
Japan expected to announce bank on exports of hi-tech goods to Russia.
Deadline for French candidates to declare their intention to run for France’s Parliament.
Economic Reports/Events:
Americas:
US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (May)
Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (Apr)
Canada ADP Employment Change (Mar)
Asia:
China Loan Prime Rate (1Y and 5Y)
Indonesia Current Account (Q1)
India FX Reserves (May)
Europe:
Eurozone Consumer Confidence (May)
Germany PPI’s (Apr)
UK Retail Sales figures (Apr)
Italy Construction Output (Mar)
Middle East:
Turkey Consumer Confidence (May), FX Reserves (May)
Africa:
South Africa expecting S&P Global to issue credit assessment.
Saturday, May 21, 2022:
Political/Social Events:
Australia holds Federal Elections.
Sunday, May 22, 2022:
Political/Social Events:
US President Biden begins visit to Japan where he will meet with leaders of the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, US) for discussions including focus on North Korea’s recent weapons tests. He is also expected to launch the US Indo-Pacific Economic Plan.
EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) meetings to discuss global implications of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.
Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim meets with German Chancellor Scholtz to discuss energy and security issues (e.g., Iran nuclear negotiations) in Berlin, Germany.
World Economic Forum begins in Davos.