Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis, as well as book recommendations, travel observations, and cultural experiences - all of which we hope will be of interest to you.

Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

August 14 - 18, 2023

First, a quick note on a slight change to our Regulatory Week Ahead.  Starting with this issue, we will include coverage of the two U.S. antitrust enforcers – the Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice Antitrust Division.  With DoJ’s Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust Jonathan Kanter’s recent speech at the Brookings Institution on “Promoting Competition in Banking,”  it is clear two new regulators have moved into the financial regulatory space. 

Now back to our usual previewing of the coming week:  It may still be the dog days of summer in Washington, but there is one big event next week.  FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg will give a speech at the Brookings Institution on “lessons learned” from the resolution of regional banks – a direct reference to the recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the closing of Commonwealth Bank in New York.  Banks will watch his speech closely for greater insight into FDIC policy – and perhaps comments about the banking regulators’ newly proposed capital requirements.  You can watch it online (link below).

Otherwise, there are no public speeches by senior regulators and no open meetings or rule proposals.  It is all quiet.  But if you have any questions, please let us know.  We hope you are enjoying your August!

 

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

  • Congress is out of session for the month of August.  The Senate returns on September 5th, and the House of Representatives on September 11th.

  

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

  • Monday, August 14, 2023 – 2:00 – 3:00 p.m.: FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg speaks at the Brookings Institution on “The resolution of large regional banks and lessons learned.”  You can watch the speech online by clicking HERE.

  • Thursday, August 17, 2023 – 2:30 p.m.: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will hold a closed meeting.

  • Friday, August 18, 2023 – 9:00 a.m. – 4:00 p.m.: The FDIC and Georgia Coalition of Black Chambers Host the Georgia Access to Capital Summit: Building an Inclusive Business Landscape for Under-Resourced Small Businesses at the Bibb County Professional Learning Center, Macon, Georgia

  

Think Tank Events 

  • Nothing of note is scheduled at this point for next week.

Please let us know if you have any questions.

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

Global Calendar May 15 - 22, 2022

This is Fulcrum Macro Advisors’ weekly calendar of key political and economic events we are watching in the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine’s continues to dominate geopolitical and geoeconomics events this coming week.  We expect the historic formal announcement from both Sweden and Finland requesting NATO membership.  The EU is expected to continue pushing forward with new sanctions on Russia as well as announce new rules around Russia natural gas imports.  Additionally, the US will hold a Ministerial Level meeting in New York Tuesday to discuss growing global food security issues as the US Senate is expected to approve a $40 billion military and economic aid package to Ukraine. 


Later in the week, President Biden heads to South Korea and then to Japan where he is expected to unveil his long-awaited Indo Pacific Economic Framework. 

Economically, we will be watching on Tuesday newly-reconfirmed US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s speech at the Wall Street Journal’s “Future of Everything” Conference as well as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday, as well.

Here is what else we are watching politically and economically around the world this coming week:

Sunday, May 15, 2022

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to report.

 

Monday, May 16, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

  • US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler to speak at the FINRA 2022 Annual Conference in Washington DC where he is expected to address the SEC’s agenda and crypto regulation.

  • US NY Empire State Manufacturing Sales (Mar)

  • Canada Housing Starts (Apr), Manufacturing Sales (Mar), Wholesale Sales (Mar)

  • Brazil Central Bank Focus Market Readout, I(BC-Br Economic Activity (Mar)

Asia:

  • China Industrial Production (Apr), Retail Sales (Apr), Unemployment rate (Apr)

  • Japan PPIs, Machine Tool Orders (Apr),

  • Europe:

  • Germany Whole Prices (Apr)

  • UK Bank of England Monetary Policy Report Hearings

  • Eurozone Balance of Trade (Mar)

  • European Commission Spring Forecasts

Middle East:

  • Saudi Arabia inflation rates (Apr), Wholesale Prices (Apr)

  • Turkey Current Account (Apr), Budget Balance (Apr)

Africa:

  • Nigeria reports inflation figures (Apr)

 

Tuesday, May 17, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

  • EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) will meet to discuss the situation in Ukraine and concurrently hold a meeting of the European Defense Agency.

  • Finnish President Sauli Niinisto to visit Sweden to discuss both countries application to NATO and mutual security concerns.

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to participate in “Ukraine 30. Digitalization Forum”

  • Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari to visit US for meetings with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and to attend global food security meeting in New York.

  • The corruption trial of former South African President Jacob Zuma continues.

  • The United Nations hosts the 54th Conference of Africa Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development in Dakar, Senegal.

  • US Congressional Primaries are being held in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. 

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

  • Federal Reserve Board Chair Powell to give a speech at Wall Street Journal’s “Future of Everything” Conference in New York City and online.

  • US Retail Sales (Apr), Industrial Production (Apr), Manufacturing Production (Apr), Business Inventories (Mar), Retail Inventories (Mar), NAHB Housing Market Index (May)

Asia:

  • Australia Royal Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes

  • India WPI for Food (Apr), Manufacturing (Apr), Fuel (Apr), and Inflation (Apr),

  • Indonesia Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (Apr)

  • Japan Tertiary Industry Index (Mar), GDP Growth Rate figures, GDP Capital Expenditures (Q1), Price Index (Q1), Reuters Tankan Index (May),

  • Malaysian Central Bank meeting

Europe:

Middle East:

  • Nothing of significance to report.

Africa:

  • South Africa Business Confidence (Apr).

 

Wednesday, May 18, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

 Economic Reports/Events: 

Global:

  • G-7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Germany.

Americas:

  • US MBA reports mortgage applications, 30-Mortgage Rate, Mortgage Refinance Index, Purchase Index (all for May); Housing Starts and Building Permits (Apr); EIA reports Crude Oil Stocks as well as Gasoline Stocks, Crude Oil Imports, Refinery Crude runs

  • Canada inflation rate figures (Apr)

Asia:

  • Australia Westpac Leading Index (Apr), Wage Price Index figures

  • China House Price Index (Apr)

  • Japan Industrial Production (Mar), Capacity Utilization (Mar), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (all for Apr), Machinery Orders (Mar)

Europe:

  • ECB holds a non-Monetary Policy Meeting

  • Russia GDP Growth Rate ((Q1)

  • UK Inflation figures (Apr), PPIs (Apr) Retail Price Index (Apr)

  • Eurozone Inflation Rate Figures (Apr)

Middle East:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

  • South Africa Inflation rate figures (Apr), Retail Sales (Apr)

  • Zambia Central Bank interest rate decision

  • Ghana PPIs (Apr)

 

Thursday, May 19, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

Economic Reports/Events: 

Americas:

  • US Initial Jobless Claims (May), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May), Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions (May) Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (May), Philadelphia Fed Employment (May); US Existing Home Sales (Apr), CB Leading Index (Apr)

  • Canada Raw Material Prices (Apr), New Housing Price Index (Apr), PPIs (Apr)

  • Argentina Balance of Trade (Apr), Economic Activity (Mar), Leading Indicators (Apr)

Asia:

  • Australia Unemployment Rate/Full-Time Employment change figures (Apr); Current Account (Mar)

  • Japan Inflation Rate Figures (Apr)

  • South Korea PPIs (Apr)

Europe:

  • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

  • Eurozone Current Account (Mar), Construction Output (Mar)

  • Italy Current Account (Mar)

  • UK CBI Industrial Trend Orders (Mar), Gfk Consumer Confidence (May)

Middle East:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

  • South Africa Central Bank Interest Rate Decision,  Building Permits (Mar)

 

Friday,  May 20, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

  • President Biden arrives in South Korea for three-day summit.

  • Foreign Ministers from Council of Europe members states to meet in Turin, Italy to discuss mutual response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

  • EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) meets in Brussels.

  • Japan expected to announce bank on exports of hi-tech goods to Russia.

  • Deadline for French candidates to declare their intention to run for France’s Parliament. 

Economic Reports/Events:

Americas:

  • US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (May)

  • Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (Apr)

  • Canada ADP Employment Change (Mar)

Asia:

  • China Loan Prime Rate (1Y and 5Y)

  • Indonesia Current Account (Q1)

  • India FX Reserves (May)

Europe:

  • Eurozone Consumer Confidence (May)

  • Germany PPI’s (Apr)

  • UK Retail Sales figures (Apr)

  • Italy Construction Output (Mar)

Middle East:

  • Turkey Consumer Confidence (May), FX Reserves (May)

Africa:

  • South Africa expecting S&P Global to issue credit assessment.

 

Saturday, May 21, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

  • Australia holds Federal Elections.

 

Sunday, May 22, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

Global Calendar of Events May 1 - 8, 2022

Sunday, May 1, 2022

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Malaysia increases its national minimum wage by 25%.

  • Indonesia begins value-added tax on crypto transactions and capital gains tax on crypto investments.

Monday, May 2, 2022

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Early May Bank holiday in UK

  • US S&P manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing, construction spending, S&P Global manufacturing (Apr)

  • South Korea export/import/balance of trade figures (Apr)

  • Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI (Apr), consumer confidence (Apr)

  • Germany retail sales figures (Mar)

  • UK nationwide housing prices (Apr)

  • Italy unemployment figures (Mar)

  • Germany S&P manufacturing PMI (Apr)

  • Spain S&P manufacturing PMI (Apr)

  • France S&P manufacturing PMI (Apr)

  • Eurozone economic sentiment (Apr), industrial sentiment (Apr), Consumer confidence, (Apr), consumer confidence and inflation expectations (Apr), S&P manufacturing PMI (Apr)

  • Australia S&P manufacturing PMI (Apr)

  • South Africa ABSA manufacturing PMI (Apr)

  • Mexico FX reserves (Mar)

  • Brazil Central Bank market readout, S&P manufacturing PMI (Apr), balance of trade (Apr)

  • India exports/imports/balance of trade figures (Apr),  S&P manufacturing PMI (Apr) Markit manufacturing PMI (Apr)

  • Philippines Markit PMI manufacturing (Apr)

  

Tuesday, May 3, 2022

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board begins two days of monetary policy meetings; rate decision comes Wednesday.

  • Eurogroup Meeting held virtually

  • US factory orders (Mar), crude oil stock changes (Apr)

  • Germany unemployment rate figures (Mar)

  • France Budget balance (Mar)

  • Brazil IPC-Fipe inflation (Mar), industrial production (Mar)

  • UK S&P global manufacturing PMI (Apr)

  • Eurozone unemployment figures (Mar), PPIs (Mar)

  • Mexico business confident (Apr)

  • South Korea FX reserves (Apr), CPIs (Apr)

  • Thailand Markit manufacturing PMI (Apr)

  • Taiwan Markit manufacturing PMI (Apr)

  • Hong Kong GDP (Q1)

  • Australia Central Bank decision,  construction index, S&P global services PMI (Apr)

 

Wednesday, May 4, 2022

Political/Social Events –

  • 2nd Annual India-Nordic Conference (Iceland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark) to be held in Copenhagen.

  • EU President Charles Michel visits Moldova to meet with President Maia Sandu in wake of recent threats made by Russia.

  • The US Senate Judiciary Committee’s Subcommittee on Privacy, Technology, and the Law holds a hearing on social media’s impacts and platform transparency (expected to heavily focus on Elon Musk’s recently announced acquisition of Twitter).

  • Israel’s Memorial Day commemorating fallen soldiers. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Federal Reserve Board rate decision, US imports/exports/balance of trade figures (Mar), S&P Global services PMIs (Apr), ISM non-manufacturing PMIs (Apr), MBA purchase index (Apr), MBA mortgage applications/30-year mortgage rates/refinance index figures (Apr), EIA crude oil stocks, EIA gasoline stocks, distillate stocks (All Apr)

  • Russia faces deadline to pay two sovereign bonds in dollars or face being rated in sovereign default.

  • European Central Bank holds non-Monetary Policy Meeting, Frankfurt, Germany

  • India S&P global manufacturing PMI (Apr)

  • Australia home loans, retail sales (Apr)

  • Germany export/import/balance of trade figures (Mar), S&P global services/global composite PMIs (Apr)

  • Eurozone S&P global services/global composite PMIs (Apr), retail sales (Mar)

  • France retail sales (Mar), S&P global services/global composite PMIs (Apr)

  • Brazil central bank interest rate decision, S&P global services PMIs (Mar)

  • Mexico consumer confidence (Mar)

  • Russia S&P global manufacturing PMI (Apr)

  • Spain unemployment figures (Apr), S&P global services/global composite PMIs (Apr)

  • Italy S&P global services/global composite PMIs (Apr)

  • Canada imports/exports/balance of trade (Mar)

  • Indonesia Markit manufacturing PMI (Apr)

  • Singapore SIPMM PMIs (Apr)

  • Vietnam Markit manufacturing PMI (Apr)

 

Thursday, May 5, 2022

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • OPEC and non-OPEC members meet virtually

  • US jobless claims, Challenger job cuts (Apr), nonfarm productivity (Q1), natural gas stocks change

  • Australia imports/exports/balance of trade figures (Mar)

  • China Caixin services and composite PMIs (Apr)

  • India S&P global composite PMI and services PMI (Apr)

  • Germany factory orders (Mar)

  • Turkey inflation rates (Apr), PPIs (Apr), Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

  • South Africa S&P Global PMIs (Apr)

  • Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMIs (Apr)

  • France S&P Global Construction PMIs (Apr)

  • Germany S&P Global Construction PMIs (Apr)

  • UK  Bank of England interest rate decision, monetary poicy report, meeting minutes

  • Turkey FX reserves (Apr)

  • Argentina industrial production (Apr)

  • Japan core CPIs (Apr)

  • Malaysia Markit manufacturing PMI (Apr)

  • Singapore Markit manufacturing PMI (Apr), retail sales (Mar)

  • Hong Kong Markit manufacturing PMI (Apr), retail sales (Mar)

  • Philippines CPI (Apr)

  • Thailand CPI (Apr)

  

Friday, May 6, 2022

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US non-farm payrolls (Apr), unemployment rate (Apr), manufacturing payrolls (Apr), oil rig count (May), consumer credit change (Mar)

  • US Securities and Exchange Commission Annual Conference on financial market regulation

  • Spain industrial production (Mar)

  • UK S&P Global Construction PMIs (Apr), house price indexes (Apr), S&P global construction (Apr)

  • Italy S&P Global Construction PMIs (Apr)

  • Australia central bank rate decision

  • Germany industrial production (Mar)

  • Russia S&P global composite serves PMIs (Apr), inflation rate (Apr)

  • France FX reserves (Apr), private non-farm payrolls (Q1)

  • Spain industrial production (Mar)

  • Italy retail sales (Mar)

  • India FX reserves (Apr), imports/exports/trade balance (Mar)

  • Brazil retail sales (Mar), car production (Apr)

  • Canada unemployment rate (Apr)

  • Philippines imports/exports/trade balance (Mar)

  • Taiwan CPI (Apr)

  

Saturday, May 7, 2022

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China FX reserves (Apr)

  

Sunday, May 8, 2022

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report

 

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Francis Kelly Francis Kelly

Washington Look Forward:

March 21-25, 2022

Spring is finally in the air in Washington, and the famed Cherry Blossoms are starting to pop on the Tidal Basin in D.C.  But it is going to be another busy week in Washington and internationally. Here is a quick run-down of what we are watching:

  • Ukraine and the Meeting of Western Leaders in Brussels and then Visit Poland: Ukraine continues to dominate Washington’s focus, particularly President Biden’s. We will see President Biden travel to Brussels for meetings Thursday and Friday with fellow NATO heads of state. He will begin Thursday with a NATO Extraordinary Summit to discuss the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In particular, the focus will be to reassess the Alliance’s long-term strategy and also take the opportunity to show strong support for the Baltic nations who are feeling increasingly at risk from Russia.  

    Biden will then join a meeting of the European Council Thursday and again on Friday to further discuss diplomatic efforts and the US-EU alliance.  Watch for the NATO meeting and E.C. meetings to result in further sizeable commitments for increased defense and security spending by all member states.

    Biden will then travel on Saturday to Poland to show solidarity with Poland, who, like the Baltic states, are feeling the risk of Russia on their border. There has been chatter of Biden then making a surprise visit to Kyiv, Ukraine, to meet with Ukraine President Zelensky – something British Prime Minister Boris Johnson apparently expected to do later this week. We note the Prime Ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia made such a trip to Kyiv last week. However, the White House has said the President “has no plans” to make such a dangerous trip, but we will closely watch if this changes.

  • Is Congress Getting Closer to Passing the CHIPS Act?: We have written previously about this critical piece of investment legislation and how it has struggled for focus and passage in both the House and Senate. To briefly recap, the bill has seen four previous iterations but has languished in Congress for a variety of odd reasons. 

    However, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) filed motions late Friday for the Senate to take up the House version of the bill (H.R. 4521) this week. The bill would shower tens of billions of dollars on the semiconductor industry to encourage re-shoring of semiconductor chip manufacturing to the U.S. as well as pouring tens of billions of more money on R&D efforts to grow and expand the U.S. technology base. The legislation is seen by both Democrats and Republicans as a means of competing more strongly versus China, and we expect the final product will garner considerable bi-partisan support.  

    But, with all things Congress, there is one potential sticking point: Several Democratic senators want to include a provision that would give the Federal Maritime Commission more power to regulate large container ships to help “fix” the supply chain challenges out there.  There will likely be considerable push-back on this provision from those who do not see the container shipping industry as the culprit to supply chain issues and growing inflation.

    The big question we have is around timing. Whatever the Senate ends up passing this week after amendments are added will be different than what the House passed last month, meaning the two chambers will have to iron the differences in a conference session in the coming weeks and maybe months. We believe they are much closer to an agreement than further apart, thus the conference negotiations will likely be short.  We will keep you updated.

  • Russia is about to Lose Normal Trade Relations with the U.S.: Late last week, the House passed legislation revoking Russia’s Normal Trade Relations with the U.S. What does that mean with all the heavy sanctions already in place on Russia? Not much. President Biden would be empowered to bring hefty tariffs on Russian goods and services. But considering the fact Biden has already banned the import of Russian energy, seafood, alcohol, and luxury goods, this may be less impactful than meets the eye.

  • Supreme Court Confirmation Hearings: This week, Congress will be primarily focused on the confirmation hearing of Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson for the Supreme Court. The hearings kick off today (Monday). Unlike the last few Supreme Court nominations, we do not expect this one to be very controversial. By and large, Republicans seem much more at ease with Judge Jackson’s nomination for two reasons 1) she is clearly qualified, and; 2) she is replacing a liberal justice, not a conservative one. Therefore the balance of the Court is not being altered. Our guess is the full Senate confirms her in the next two to three weeks – and three or four Republican senators will vote for her confirmation.

 We hope this helps you get a general perspective of what is going on in Washington this week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

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