The Global Week Ahead: October 2 – 9, 2022:

It is another eventful week ahead but leading the list is China’s Seventh Plenum of the 19th Party Congress next Sunday, October 9th.  The Plenum is where China’s all-powerful Central Committee reviews and approves all documents and proposals to be considered at the 20th Party Congress, which commences October 16th (it will be at the October 16th Congress where President Xi Jinping is expected to be given an unprecedented third term as China’s President).  

Also, this week OPEC+ will meet virtually to discuss oil prices and are expected to cut output by as much as 500,000 barrels a day to keep oil prices above $90.  Meanwhile, EU leaders will be meeting this week to discuss the situation in Ukraine, exploding energy prices in the EU, and how to cap them. 

Also, this week, beginning Monday, the Nobel Prizes announce their annual prizes for everything from chemistry to literature to peace.  The award for economics will be announced the following Monday (October 10th).

Closer to home, the US Congress has left until after the mid-term elections (now a month away), but the US Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) will meet to review and approve a report which will be the framework for regulating crypto markets.

On the economic front, we will be watching a host of PMIs being reported across Europe and Asia this week – all of which will factor heavily into next week’s IMF/World Bank meetings.  We will also be watching closely new US jobless data.  Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, October 2, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil holds general elections for president and parliament (first round).  If no one wins more than 50 percent in the first round, a run-off is held on October 30th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       A delegation of German members of parliament arrive for an official visit of Taiwan for the first time since 2019.

·       Australia daylight savings begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3), Tankan Small Manufacturers (Q3), Tankan Large All Industry Outlook (Q3), Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Singapore URA Property Index (Q3)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina hold general elections.

·       Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections (the fourth in two years).

·       London hosts the London Marathon.

·       The UK Conservative Party holds their party conference in Birmingham.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 3, 2022:

Global

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency meets in Vienna, Austria.  It is expected they will discuss the Iranian nuclear weapons program, President Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons, and North Korea’s growing nuclear weapons program.

·       The Nobel Prize Committee announces the Prize for Physiology or Medicine in Stockholm, Sweden.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) meets to review and approve the report required by President Biden on digital assets.  The report – “Ensuring Responsible Development of Digital Assets” – will serve as the framework for the Administration’s regulation of crypto.

·       Canada holds general elections in Québec.

·       President and First Lady Biden to visit Puerto Rico to inspect the damage from Hurricane Fiona.

·       The US Supreme Court opens its fall term.  They will hear cases this session dealing with voting rights, the independence of state legislatures, and environmental cases.

·       The US Senate and House of Representatives are out of session until after the midterm elections on November 8th.  Both chambers are expected to return November 14th. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Philip Jefferson gives a speech on “Technology-Enabled Disruption: Lessons from the Pandemic and the Path Ahead” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       US ISM’s Manufacturing PMI/Prices/New Orders/Manufacturing Employment Reports (September)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (September), FX Reserves (August), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), Balance of Trade (September)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (August)

·       Colombia Exports (August), Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Senior Officials are expected to meet through October 5th in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

·       ASEAN Senior Economic Officials Meeting through October 5th in Phnom Penh, Cambodia

·       Meeting of the ASEAN Coordinating Council Working Meeting

·       Australia celebrates Labor Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

·       Japan Tokyo CPIs (September)

·       Indonesia Inflation Data (September)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Australia Building Permits (August), Home Loans (August), Building Permits (August), Ai Group Manufacturing Index (September)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (September), Wholesale Prices (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron are expected to meet and have a working dinner in Berlin (if Chancellor Scholz has recovered from COVID in time).

·       The European Parliament holds its first October plenary session through October 6th.

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. They will discuss the macroeconomic situation in the Euro area and policy responses to high energy prices as well as inflationary pressures.  ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta will participate.

·       Russia’s lower parliament expected to ratify President Putin’s annexation of Ukrainian territories.

·       Germany celebrates Unification Day – 32 years since East and West Germany were reunited.

·       Bank of England’s Catherine Mann will be a panelist at the CDB Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Initiative.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       UK Nationwide Housing Prices (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       France Budget Balance (August), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (September), procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraq celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (September), PPIs (September), Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Qatar GDP Growth Rate (Q2)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·      South Africa hosts Africa Oil Week in Cape Town.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank PMI (September)

·       South Africa Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Angola FX Reserves (September)

Tuesday, October 4, 2022:

Global

·       The Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur (Day of Atonement) commences.

·       The Nobel Prize Committee announces the Prize for Physics in Stockholm, Sweden.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US’s NASA and SpaceX plan to launch the 5th crewed mission to the International Space Station from Kennedy Space Center in Florida.  If weather or other reasons do not permit launch today, NASA will seek to launch on Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Redbook (October), JOLTs Job Openings (August), Factory Orders (August), LMI Logistics Managers Index Current

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (September)

·       Colombia Monetary Policy Minutes

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI (September), Jibun Bank Composite PMI (September)

·       Australia central bank (RBA) interest rate decision (likely 50 bps), RBA Financial Stability Review and Chart Pack, Commodity Prices (September), S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (September), Retail Sales (August)

·       Singapore G&P Global PMI (September)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council  (Ecofin) meets to discuss the economic situation and high energy prices.  It will also approve conclusions on climate finance ahead of the COP 27 meeting in Egypt in November.

·       Russia’s Upper Chamber of Parliament expected to approve the annexation of Ukrainian territories.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in the ECOFIN meeting in Luxembourg.

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives the keynote speech and participates in a panel at the FMA Supervisory Conference 2022 in Vienna, Austria.

·       Spain Unemployment Changes (September)

·       Eurozone PPI (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Central Bank monetary policy report released.

·       Nigeria PMI (September)

Wednesday, October 5, 2022:

Global

·       OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting via videoconference.  It is expected they move to cut output.

·       The Nobel Prize Committee announces the Prize for Chemistry in Stockholm, Sweden.

·       The G-20 Civil Society Summit is held in Bali, Indonesia.

·       The G-20 Parliamentary Speakers Summit is held in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Organization for American States (OAS) holds its 52nd General Assembly in Lima, Peru. 

·       President and First Lady Biden to visit Florida to inspect the damage from Hurricane Ian.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US ADP Employment Change (September), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August), MBA Mortgage Rates and other data (September), S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (September), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI/Orders/Business Activity/New Orders/Employment (September)

·       Canada Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August), Building Permits (August)

·       Brazil S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (September)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (September)

·       El Salvador GDP (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (August)

·       South Korea FX Reserves (September)

·       Australia Ai Group Construction Index (September), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (September)

·       Taiwan FX Reserves (September)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate (Q2), Current Account (Q2)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz holds a summit with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in A Coruña (in Galicia, Spain).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting in Cyprus.

·       Germany Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August), S&P Global Services PMI (September)

·       France Industrial Production (August), S&P Global Services PMI (September)

·       Spain S&P Global Services PMI (September), Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Italy S&P Global Services PMI (September)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (September)

·       UK S&P Global Services and Composites PMIs (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Services PMI (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon BLOM PMI (September)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Kenya PMIs (September)

·       Uganda PMIs (September)

·       Zambia PMIs (September)

·       Ghana PMIs (September)

Thursday, October 6, 2022: 

Global

·       The World Trade Organization (WTO) meets today and tomorrow in Geneva, Austria.

·       IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers a speech at Georgetown University in Washington DC outlining the agenda for the IMF’s Annual meeting which takes place next week.

·       The Nobel Prize Committee announces the Prize for Literature in Stockholm, Sweden.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives her first speech as Governor at The Peterson Institute for International Economics.  She will give present on the US economic outlook.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Mark C. Berger Workshop Series in Lexington, Kentucky.

·       US Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing Jobless Claims (4-week average)

·       Canada IVEY PMI (September)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Mexico Auto Exports/Production (September)

·       Brazil Car Production (September)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Sri Lanka’s Parliament expected to debate a bill to amend the Constitution curtailing presidential powers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India S&P Global Composite PMI (September)

·       Japan Household Spending (August), FX Reserves (September)

·       South Korea Current Account (August)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (September), Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Australia RBA Financial Stability Review

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Political Community (EPC meets in Prague in advance of the informal heads of state meeting Friday.

·       Norway’s government presents its 2023 budget to the Storting (Parliament)

·       Kazakhstan/s ruling Amanat Party to hold an extraordinary Party Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Spain Industrial Production (August)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMI (September), Retail Sales (August)

·       France S&P Global Construction PMI (September), Retail Sales (August)

·       Germany S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

·       Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

·       UK S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

Poland Retail Sales (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (September), Business Confidence (September)

·       Turkey FX Reserves (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (September)

·       Uganda interest rate decision

Friday, October 7, 2022:

Global

·       United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s World Food Price Index (September)

·       The Nobel Prize Committee announces the Prize for Peace in Stockholm, Sweden.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Unemployment Figures (September), Consumer Credit Change (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate Figures (September)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (September)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (August)

·       Chile Inflation Figures (September), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FX Reserves (September), Caixin Services and Composite PMIs (September)

·       Indonesia FX Reserves (September)

·       Japan Coincident Index (August), Leading Economic Index (August)

·       India FX Reserves (September)

·       Taiwan Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

·       Hong Kong FX Reserves (September)

·       Singapore FX Reserves (September)

·       Thailand FX Reserves (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU holds an informal meeting of heads of state in Prague to discuss Ukraine, energy, and the economy.

·       The UK’s Office of Budget Responsibility will present their initial analysis of Prime Minister Liz Truss’s economic plan as presented out last week.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin turns 70.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Industrial Production (August)

·       France Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August), FX Reserves (September), Current Account (August)

·       UK Halifax House Price Index (September),  Mortgage Rates (September), Labor Productivity (Q2)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (September), FX Reserves (September)

·       Italy Retail Sales (August)

·       Russia Inflation Rate (September), FX Reserves (September), Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Poland FX Reserves (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt FX Reserves (September)

·       Israel FX Reserves (September)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Lesotho holds elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa FX Reserves (September)

·       Ghana interest rate decision

·       Tanzania inflation figures (September)

·       Mauritius inflation figures (September)

Saturday, October 8, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

·       Political/Social Events –

·       Scotland’s National Party (SNP) annual conference is held in Aberdeen.

·       The UK expects a 24-hour strike of the national train workers – the RMT union – over jobs, pay, and working conditions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 9, 2022: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

China will convene the 7th Plenum of the 19th Party Congress to review preparations for the 20th Party Congress which begins October 16th.

Economic Reports/Events –

Australia Ai Group Services Index (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Austria holds presidential elections.

Germany’s Lower Saxony holds state elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

Uganda celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.