The Global Week Ahead

May 6 - 12, 2024

This week is going to be relatively quiet. Monday and Wednesday are holidays in Europe, which means a very quiet week in the EU, while holidays in Japan and South Korea will also help things stay quiet in Asia. 

However, we are watching one big geopolitical event this week, which will take place in the EU: Chinese President Xi Jinping's visits to Europe. Xi's trip begins with meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron and EU President Ursula von der Leyden in Paris to discuss the multiple trade spats between the EU and China. From there, Xi heads to Hungary for meetings with Prime Minister Viktor Orban and then to Serbia. While all this is happening, Russia celebrates Victory Day this week, marking the end of World War II, and President Vladimir Putin will celebrate being reinaugurated as President of Russia.

Also, this week, we will be watching for renewed efforts to bring a cease-fire to Gaza as Israel prepares to launch a military offensive against the city of Rafah. We do not hope a deal will get done, but the discussions will likely intensify, and we can always hope.

Turning our attention to the US, the US Congress is in session this week. While the budget is finished and aid to Ukraine and Israel has been approved, most of the "major" issues left for Congress to tackle are secondary. This week's key focus for Congress is reauthorizing the Federal Aviation Administration.  

On the global economic radar this week, there are several key indicators and events to watch. Markets will be closely monitoring the Bank of England's interest rate decision on Thursday, the UK GDP report, and the University of Michigan consumer survey in the US. In Asia, China will be reporting the latest trade balance and Caixin Services PMI, while Japan will also be releasing trade data. Australia's Reserve Bank meets on Tuesdayto decide rates.  

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Monday, May 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Treasury Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson and Treasury General Counsel Neil MacBride will travel to Singapore and Malaysia to advance Treasury’s work countering terrorist financing and revenue generation by Iran and its proxies as well as to discuss the implementation of sanctions and export controls against Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in conversation before the Milken Institute 2024 Global Conference.

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (March)/ Nominal Budget Balance (March)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA Fed Williams Speech/ Loan Officer Survey

·       Colombia PPI (April)/ Monetary Policy Minutes

·       Canada Average Hourly Wages (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping begins a European tour of France, Serbia, and Hungary. He will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (April)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (April)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (April)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in trilateral meetings in Paris with Emmanuel Macron, President of France, and Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The UK marks the Early May Bank Holiday, a national holiday.

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (March)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (March)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ Bundesbank President Nagel Speech

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ PPI (March)

·       Switzerland SNB Jordan Speech

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (April)/ Business Confidence (April)

·       Jordan PPI (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Chad holds the first phase of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (April)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (April)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (April)

Tuesday, May 7, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a moderated conversation on the economic overview before the Milken Institute 2024 Global Conference.

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will appear before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Public Accounts.

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (April)/ Auto Production (April)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       USA Redbook (May/04)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (May)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs/ Fed Kashkari Speech/ Consumer Credit Change (March)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/03)/ Used Car Prices (April)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (April)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (April)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (April)

·       Colombia Exports (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Australia Retail Sales Final (March)/ RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (April)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (April)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/07)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will be re-inaugurated as President of Russia.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) meets in Brussels.  The ministers will discuss Ukraine, the situation in Gaza, and other current business.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  They are expected to discuss the Equal Treatment Directive and the state of play of the Violence Against Women Survey.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Jonathan Hall gives a speech at the University of Exeter entitled “Monsters in the deep… Artificial Intelligence.”

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (April)/ Halifax House Price Index (April)/ New Car Sales (April)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (April)/ BoE Hall Speech

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Factory Orders (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Romania PPI (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (March)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Serbia PPI (April)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, May 8, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on 1559 report (Lebanon).

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Washington Conference on the Americas takes place in the U.S. capital with Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson participates in a moderated discussion on Careers in Economics at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech on financial stability at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins to speak before students and faculty and participates in a fireside discussion before the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Sloan School of Management's Challenges and Opportunities class.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/03)/ Wholesale Inventories (March)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/03)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (March)/ Car Production (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Chile Inflation Rate (April)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (April)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (March)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (April)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (April)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Budapest.

·       North Macedonia holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

·       Germany Industrial Production (March)

·       Romania Retail Sales (March)

·       Hungary Industrial Production Prel (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Budget Balance (April)

·       Span Industrial Production (March)

·       Italy Retail Sales (March)

·       Great Britain BBA Mortgage Rate (April)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (March)

·       Russia Monetary Policy Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (April)

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Thursday, May 9, 2024

Global

·       The G7 Justice Ministers meet in Venice, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina’s General Confederation of Labor will go on strike in protest over President Javier Miliei’s economic reform efforts.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (May/04)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/27)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/04)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/03)

·       Canada BoC Financial System Review

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (March)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (March)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Foreign Bond Investment (May/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/04)/ Coincident Index Prel (March)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Australia Building Permits Final (March)/ Private House Approvals Final (March)

·       Philippines GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Ascension Day, a public holiday in the EU.  The ECB and most major banking systems are closed.

·       Russia will hold a large military parade in Moscow, marking the end of World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks and participates in Q&A at Panel Cívico organized by Asociación Panel Cívico in Madrid, Spain.

·       ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives opening remarks at a seminar “The tokenization of financial instruments – prospects for the Italian market” organized by CONSOB in Rome, Italy

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel discussion at V Edition of the Expansión International Forum in Madrid, Spain.  She later participates on a panel entitled “Finance and Banks.”
Time: 9:55

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (April)/ BoE Interest Rate Decision/ Monetary Policy Report/ MPC Vote Cut/ MPC Vote Hike/ MPC Vote Unchanged/ MPC Meeting Minutes/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech/ BoE Pill Speech

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (March)

·       Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/03)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (April)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (March)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (April)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (April)

Friday, May 10, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives the commencement speech at the American University School of Public Affairs Graduation in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Financial Stability Risks: Resiliency and the Role of Regulators” at the Texas Bankers Association Annual Convention, Arlington, Texas.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Louisiana Bankers Association Annual Conference.

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (March)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

·       USA Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (May)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Prel (May)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Goolsbee Speech/ Monthly Budget Statement (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (April)

·       Japan Household Spending (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Bank Lending (April)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (April)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment FEB

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/03)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)

·       China Vehicle Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote presentation on the digital euro by at CXVI Meeting of Central Bank Governors of the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA) in Madrid, Spain.

·       ECB Board Frank Elderson Frank Elderson participates in a roundtable at ASVIS/ECCO Symposium "Europe's Future: Investing in the Climate Transition for All" in Rome, Italy.

·       Romania Balance of Trade (March)

·       Great Britain GDP (March)/ Goods Trade Balance (March)/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Business Investment Prel Q1/ BoE Pill Speech/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (April)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (April)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Participation Rate (March)

·       Italy Industrial Production (March)/ Industrial Sales (February)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (March)

·       Switzerland Current Account Prel Q1

·       Greece Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ Vehicle Sales (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (April)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran holds parliamentary elections (phase 2).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (April)

Saturday, May 11, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)/ New Yuan Loans (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (April)/ Total Social Financing (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 12, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds Presidential elections.

·       The Catalan regional elections (Spain) are being held.  The vote could determine the future of Spain’s minority government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

March 3 - 10, 2024

The situation in Gaza will continue to hold the attention of the world this coming week. Ramadan begins this coming Sunday, and with it comes a strict Israeli deadline for Hamas to release all remaining Israeli hostages. As of this writing, reports are circulating that the outlines of a deal have tentatively been agreed to – but if the deal fails, Israeli forces are likely to begin a full-scale assault on the city of Rafah – a city with more than a million residents and refugees along with sizeable Hamas forces. If an agreement is finalized, a ceasefire – likely for at least a month – will go into place.   

Elsewhere in the world, China holds its People's Political Consultative Conference – China's top political consultive body where most of the meetings are behind closed doors – in Beijing. The weeklong annual legislative season is known as the "Two Sessions." Premier Li Qiang is expected to present a report at the National People's Congress on Tuesday, unveiling the GDP growth target for 2024 along with national budget and socioeconomic policy outlines. The pressure is on President Xi Jinping to successfully move policies to revive the lackluster economy and increasing internal social tensions.

In the U.S., three significant events occur this week, which will signal the longer-term political and economic outlook. First, the Super Tuesday primaries are on Tuesday, effectively confirming a rematch of President Joe Biden against former President Donald Trump in November. Then, on Tuesday, President Biden gives his annual State of the Union Address, pushing for a completion of the budget, reform of the U.S. border security situation, aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, and a host of other issues.

The third significant event will be Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. Markets – and voters – will get a better sense of the state of the economy and (maybe) a better sense of when interest rates may begin to come down.

Elsewhere on the global economic radar screen this week, markets will be watching and listening carefully to the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference to get a sense of the state of Europe's economy. Also in Europe this week, the U.K.'s budget will be released – not just important economically but also politically for the struggling conservative government.

In the U.S., the jobs report will be closely watched along with the release of the Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday.   

Below is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, March 3, 2024

Global

• The 7th Summit of Heads of State and Government of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) concludes today in Algiers. Major oil natural gas producing countries from Latin America and the Middle East attended.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• El Salvador holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Bulgaria Liberation Day, celebrating the Treaty of San Stefano, recognizing the nation’s independence in 1879.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi is heading to Algeria this weekend for a two-day visit in the first official trip by an Iranian president to the North African country in some 14 years.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Senegal has a constitutional deadline today to hold presidential elections (which they are likely to fail to do).

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 4, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).  

• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors will meet in Vienna, Austria its convene its regular March meeting going through March 8.

• The UN General Assembly will hold its 59th plenary meeting. On the agenda is the use of the veto - Item 63: Special Report of the Security Council (A/78/786). 

• The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Food Price Index (February)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Israeli Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz will meet with Vice President Kamala Harris and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to coordinate on Gaza policy.  The trip has enraged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who says he did not authorize the trip.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on the "Economic Impact of Higher Education" before the 2024 American Council on Education Presidents and Chancellors Summit.

• Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (February), BCB Focus Market Readout

• Mexico Gross Fixed Investment DEC

• Colombia Exports (January), PPI (February)

• USA 3-, 6-Month Bill Auction

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China's People's Political Consultative Conference – China’s top political consultive body – meets in Beijing. The weeklong annual legislative season is known as the "Two Sessions." Premier Li Qiang is expected to present a report at the National People's Congress on Tuesday, unveiling the GDP growth target for 2024 along with national budget and socioeconomic policy outlines.  Approximately 5,000 delegates will take part in discussions -- most of them behind closed doors.

• Pakistan’s National Assembly is expected to formally select Shehbaz Sharif as the next Prime Minister.  Sharif is the former President, and his election will likely spark nationwide protests as opposition parties allege the February 8 election was rigged.

• Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese hosts a special three-day summit for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Melbourne, Australia.

• South Korea and the U.S. will commence the annual “Freedom Shield” military exercises as part of efforts to guard against the threat posed by North Korea. According to Nikkei News, the drills run for ten days and involve live, virtual, and field-based training, with the involvement of personnel from various military services aimed at "enhancing interoperability and elevating combat readiness." Seoul and Washington are working to remain combat-ready as Pyongyang escalates its weapons development.

• Today is the Anniversary of The Coronation of The Sultan of Terengganu, the Sultan of Malaysia.  It is a national holiday, and financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Terms of Trade Q4

• South Korea Industrial Production (January), Retail Sales (January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(February)

• Japan Capital Spending Q4

• Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (February), Building Permits Prel (January), Company Gross Profits Q4, ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (February), Business Inventories Q4, Private House Approvals Prel (January) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU’s Justice and Home Affairs Council meets through March 5.  They are expected to discuss the general state of the Schengen area, the European free travel zone, and the recently presented evaluation of the EU law establishing Frontex (the EU border and coast guard regulation).

• The EU’s Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) meets in Brussels.  They are expected to discuss the state of play in terms of security of supply and preparations for winter 2024-2025. In that context, they will seek political agreement on the Council recommendation on continuing coordinated demand-reduction measures for gas. Ministers will also have an exchange of views on flexibility as an essential tool for energy transition.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Switzerland SNB 2023 Annual Report, Inflation Rate (February), CPI(February)

• Romania PPI (January), Unemployment Rate (January)

• Turkey Inflation Rate (February), CPI(February), PPI (February), Auto Sales (February), Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• France Budget Balance (January), 3-, 6-, 12-Month BTF Auction, New Car Registrations (February)

• Slovakia Real Wages Q4

• Spain Unemployment Change (February), Tourist Arrivals (January)

• Euro Area EU-Bonds auction

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (February)

• Kuwait M2 Money Supply (January), Private Bank Lending (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Ethiopia Inflation Rate (January)

Tuesday, March 5, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). 

• The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is expected to launch its Unjust Climate Report.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is “Super Tuesday” primaries are held.  More than one-third of all presidential delegates (874 of the necessary 2,429 Republican delegates) are chosen, but the outcome seems already settled as President Biden will face former President Donald Trump in November.  The states holding primaries are Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, and the territory of American Samoa.

• California holds congressional and senate primary elections.  Los Angeles also holds City Council elections.  In the senate primary, Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) is leading in the polls and will likely face former Major League Baseball Hall of Famer Steve Garvey (R-CA) in the November general elections.

• The Wall Street Journal hosts its annual CFO Network Summit in New York through March 6.  

• Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will give a speech entitled “Community Reinvestment Act Modernization: An Interagency Leadership Conversation” at the 2024 National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference (virtual).

• Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President & CEO Neel Kashkari will speak at the Wall Street Journal CFO Network Summit in New York.

• Brazil PPI (January), S&P Global Services PMI Final (February), S&P Global Composite PMI Final (February)

• Canada S&P Global Services PMI Final (February), S&P Global Composite PMI Final (February)

• USA Redbook  MAR/02, S&P Global Services PMI Final(February), S&P Global Composite PMI Final(February), ISM Services PMI(February), Factory Orders (January), RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index MAR, Factory Orders ex Transportation(January), ISM Services Business Activity/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices(February), API Crude Oil Stock Change MAR/01, LMI Logistics Managers Index Current(February), Total Vehicle Sales(February)

• Paraguay Inflation Rate (February)

• Uruguay Inflation Rate (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• ASEAN Defense Ministers will meet at Luang Prabang, Laos.  They are expected to discuss general common strategies as well as find a peaceful solution to the situation in Myanmar and the tense situation in the South China Sea.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will give a speech at FIN/SUM 2024 in Tokyo.

• Australia Judo Bank Services PMI Final (February), Judo Bank Composite PMI Final (February), Current Account Q4, Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q4

• South Korea GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4

• Japan Tokyo Core CPI (February), Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (February), Tokyo CPI (February), Jibun Bank Services PMI Final (February), Jibun Bank Composite PMI Final (February)

• Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (February)

• Singapore S&P Global PMI (February), Retail Sales (January), MAS 4- & 12-Week Bill Auction

• Philippines Inflation Rate (February), Core Inflation Rate (February)

• China Caixin Services PMI (February), Caixin Composite PMI(February)

• Thailand Core Inflation Rate (February), Inflation Rate (February)

• India HSBC Composite PMI Final (February), HSBC Services PMI Final (February)

• Kazakhstan Tengri Partners Services PMI(February)

• Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

• New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index MAR/05

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• French President Emmanuel Macron visits the Czech Republic for meetings.

• German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius travels to Sweden, Norway and Finland through March 8. Pistorius will meet his Scandinavian counterparts and German soldiers and take part in the Nordic Response military exercise.

• Finance Minister Christian Lindner and Labor Minister Heil present the government’s new pension package in Berlin.

•  Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) ambassadors meet leaders of the Russia-Islamic World Group of Strategic Vision, Moscow.

• Today is the 71st anniversary of Joseph Stalin’s death. Communists traditionally lay flowers at the site of the Soviet leader’s grave in the Kremlin walls.

Economic Reports/Events –

• UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (February), New Car Sales (February), S&P Global Services PMI Final (February), S&P Global Composite PMI Final (February), 3-Year Treasury Gilt Auction

• Ireland AIB Services PMI(February)

• Russia S&P Global Composite PMI(February), S&P Global Services PMI(February), PPI (February)

• Hungary GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4

• France Industrial Production (January), HCOB Services PMI(February), HCOB Composite PMI(February)

• Spain HCOB Services PMI(February), HCOB Composite PMI(February), 6-, 12-Month Letras Auction

• Italy HCOB Services PMI(February), HCOB Composite PMI(February), GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4

• Germany HCOB Services PMI(February), HCOB Composite PMI(February), 5-Year Bobl Auction

• Euro Area HCOB Services PMI(February), HCOB Composite PMI(February), PPI (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• The Organization of Islamic Cooperation will hold an extraordinary meeting of its Council of Foreign Ministers in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to discuss the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI(February)

• United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI(February)

• Egypt S&P Global PMI(February)

• Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI(February)

• Jordan PPI (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Ghana celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.  The holiday marks the day the country gained its independence from the UK in 1957.

• The 9th Powering Africa Summit 2024 takes places in Washington D.C. The theme this year is “Capital Flows Underpinning the Energy Transition.” It will focus on energy project development, infrastructure, and the enabling environment. 

• The Uganda-EU Business Forum will bring together Ugandan entrepreneurs, European investors, and policy leaders to identify trade and investment opportunities in Kampala, Uganda.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Mozambique Standard Bank PMI(February)

• South Africa S&P Global PMI(February), GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q4

• Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI(February)

• Ghana S&P Global PMI(February)

Wednesday, March 6, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1718 Committee. 

• World Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (February)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• the SEC holds an Open Meeting to consider new regulations dealing with disclosure of order execution infrastructure for National Market Systems Stocks.  This is the long-awaited climate disclosure rules and regulations championed by Chair Gary Gensler.

• Belize holds municipal elections.

• Colombia is bracing for national demonstrations led by opposition parties against President Gustavo Petro’s pension reform legislation.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress to the House Financial Services Committee.

• San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to speak before the 2024 National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference.

• Brazil Current Account (January), Foreign Direct Investment (January), Industrial Production (January), Car Production (February), New Car Registrations (February), Balance of Trade (February)

• Mexico Consumer Confidence (February), Auto Exports (February), Auto Production (February)

• USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate MAR/01, MBA Mortgage Applications/ Market Index/ Refinance Index/ Purchase Index MAR/01, ADP Employment Change(February), JOLTs Job Openings/ Quit(January), Wholesale Inventories (January), EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change MAR/01, EIA Gasoline Stocks Change MAR/01, EIA Crude Oil Imports Change MAR/01, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks, EIA Cushing Change MAR/01, EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change MAR/01, EIA Distillate Stocks Change MAR/01, EIA Gasoline Production Change MAR/01, EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change MAR/01, EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change MAR/01, 17-Week Bill Auction, Fed Daly Speech, Fed Beige Book

• Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and press conference.

• Canada Labor Productivity QoQ Q4, Ivey PMI s.a(February),

• Ecuador Inflation Rate (February)

• Argentina Industrial Production (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit the northern Kashmir region, his first trip to the valley since the abrogation of its special status in August 2019. During the planned visit -- which comes just ahead of the country's general elections due in April-May -- Modi will address a public meeting in Kashmir's Srinagar area, according to his Bharatiya Janata Party's local unit spokesperson Altaf Thakur.

• India’s Minister for External Affairs S. Jaishankar travels to South Korea to meet with Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul.  He then will travel to Japan for meetings with Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa.  They are expected to discuss issues of bilateral, regional and global importance, and exchange views on cooperation for a free, open, inclusive, peaceful and prosperous Indo-pacific.

• The Asia Green Tech Summit, hosted by Nikkei and the Financial Times, begins in Singapore. The meeting will bring together business leaders, entrepreneurs, and investors from around the world to discuss Asia's renewable energy supply chain and its role as a global carbon market hub. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (February), Inflation Rate (February), CPI(February),

• Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index, GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q4, GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ Q4, GDP Chain Price Index QoQ Q4, GDP Final Consumption QoQ Q4, Retail Sales Final (January)

• India M3 Money Supply (February)/23

• Kazakhstan PPI (February)

• Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• British Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will deliver the annual UK Spring Budget. Hunt’s proposal will outline new tax and spending plans for the nation.  The UK is now facing a fiscal deficit of 5 percent and 100 percent debt levels vs. GDP.   Hunt is expected to propose a 1 percent cut to the National Insurance program and cuts to the inheritance tax.

• The Russian Duma will present proposals on the implementation of the measures named in Russian President Vladimir Putin's Feb. 29 address to the Federal Assembly.

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with the German state premiers to discuss how illegal migration can be limited.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January), HCOB Construction PMI(February), New Car Registrations (February)

• Romania Retail Sales (January)

• Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (January), Industrial Production Prel (January), Retail Sales (January)

• Slovakia Retail Sales (January)

• Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI(February), Retail Sales (January), 3- and 6- Month Bill Auction

• France HCOB Construction PMI(February)

• Italy HCOB Construction PMI(February)

• Slovenia Balance of Trade (January)

• Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI(February), Spring Budget 2024

• Ireland Unemployment Rate (February)

• Russia Vehicle Sales (February), Corporate Profits (December)

• Poland Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Qatar Financial Centre PMI(February)

• Israel Tourist Arrivals (February)

• Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Maitama Tuggar will travel to Moscow to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.   They are expected to discuss greater economic relations between the two countries.

• The Connected Banking Summit – East Africa will be held in Nairobi.  Global executives, and bankers will discuss the emergence of AI in banking, cybersecurity, as well as sustainable and green banking.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Business Confidence Q1

Thursday, March 7, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the Sudan 2715 report. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East.

• The UN’s Buildings and Climate Global Forum will take place through March 8. The forum will bring building and construction stakeholders to share expertise and a vision for a future where buildings play an active role in combating climate change and outline effective steps for decarbonization. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Joe Biden will give the annual State of the Union Address.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

• Brazil Gross Debt to GDP(January), Nominal Budget Balance (January)

• Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• Mexico Inflation Rate (February), Core Inflation Rate (February)

• USA Challenger Job Cuts(February), Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade(January), Initial Jobless Claims MAR/02, Continuing Jobless Claims(February)/24, Jobless Claims 4-week Average MAR/02, Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Final Q4, Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final Q4, EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change MAR/01, 4- & 8-Week Bill Auction, 15-Year Mortgage Rate, Used Car Prices(February)

• Canada Building Permits (January), Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January), 15- & 30-Year Bond Auction MAR/06, Consumer Credit Change (January)

• Costa Rica Inflation Rate (February)

• Colombia Inflation Rate (February)

• Peru Interest Rate Decision

• El Salvador Inflation Rate (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The ASEAN Economics Retreat will be held through March 8 in Luang Prabang, Laos.

• Today is the 10th anniversary of the disappearance of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Policy Board member Junko Nakagawa will give a speech and press conference before local leaders in Shimane, Japan.

• New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q4

• Japan Average Cash Earnings (January), Overtime Pay (January), Foreign Bond Investment MAR/02, Stock Investment by Foreigners MAR/02

• Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January), Home Loans (January), Investment Lending for Homes (January)

• Philippines Industrial Production (January)

• China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)-(February), Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

• Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

• Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

• Taiwan Inflation Rate (February)

• Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

• Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal market and industry) meets in Brussels.  They are expected to discuss a report on the advance of the works to reach an agreement on the late payment regulation. The proposal is part of the 'SME relief package'’ a series of initiatives presented by the Commission on 12 September 2023 to address the needs of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the current economic environment. One of the main problems that SMEs are facing is the frequent payment delays from administration or other companies. The proposal introduces a stricter maximum payment limit of 30 days, eliminates ambiguities, and addresses the legal gaps in the current EU legislation.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• The European Central Bank holds a monetary policy meeting.  ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference afterward.

• Bank of England Executive Director for Data and Analytics Transformation/Chief Data Officer James Benford gives a speech at the Big Data & ai World Conference in London.

• Switzerland Unemployment Rate (February), Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

• Germany Factory Orders (January)

• Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (February), BBA Mortgage Rate (February)

• France Foreign Exchange Reserves (February), 10-, 20-, 30-Year OAT Auction

• Slovakia GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4

• Spain Bonos Auction, Index-Linked Obligacion Auction, Obligacion Auction

• Greece GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q4

• Russia Interest Rate Decision, Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

• Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves MAR/01, Treasury Cash Balance (February)

• Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

• Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Business Confidence (February), Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The 18th Global Trade Review in Cape Town will welcome players from Africa’s trade, supply chain, commodity and infrastructure finance community.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (February), Current Account Q4

Friday, March 8, 2024

Global

• Today is International Women’s Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will travel to the United States to meet with former President Donald Trump in Mar-a-Lago, Florida.

• SpaceX CEO Elon Musk faces a deadline today to comply with a demand of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party demanding that U.S. Troops stationed in Taiwan get access to SpaceX’s Starshield satellite communications network.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in moderated discussion before hybrid event, "Connecting Academics to Policy: A Conversation with New York Fed President John C. Williams" organized by the London School of Economics.

• Chile Core Inflation Rate (February), Inflation Rate (February)

• Brazil Bank Lending (January)

• USA Fed Williams Speech, Non-Farm Payrolls (February), Unemployment Rate (February), Average Hourly Earnings (February), Participation Rate (February), Average Weekly Hours (February), Government/ Manufacturing/ Nonfarm Payrolls (February), U-6 Unemployment Rate, WASDE Report, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count MAR/08

• Canada Unemployment Rate (February), Employment Change (February), Participation Rate (February), Average Hourly Wages (February), Capacity Utilization Q4, Full-Time Employment Chg (February), Part Time Employment Chg (February) 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Current Account (January)

• Japan Household Spending (January), Current Account (January), Bank Lending (February), Coincident Index Prel (January), Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (February), Leading Economic Index Prel (January)

• Philippines Unemployment Rate (January)

• Indonesia Consumer Confidence (February)

• Malaysia Unemployment Rate (January)

• Thailand Consumer Confidence (February), Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

• Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (February)

• Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• India Bank Loan Growth (February)/23, Deposit Growth (February)/23, Foreign Exchange Reserves MAR/01

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany Industrial Production (January), PPI(January)

• Romania GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q4

• Hungary Core Inflation Rate (February), Inflation Rate (February), Budget Balance (February)

• France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January), Current Account (January)

• Slovakia Balance of Trade (January), Industrial Production (January)

• Spain Industrial Production (January)

• Italy PPI(January)

• Euro Area Employment Change Final Q4, GDP Growth Rate 3rd Est Q4

• Greece Balance of Trade (January), Harmonized Inflation Rate (February), Industrial Production (January), Inflation Rate (February)

• Ireland Industrial Production (January)

• Ukraine Inflation Rate (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Africa Games begin in Accra, Ghana, and go through March 10.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Tanzania Inflation Rate (February)

• Nigeria Balance of Trade October/ November/ December

Saturday, March 9, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Belize celebrates National Heroes and Benefactors Day, a national holiday honoring Baron Bliss.  Bliss donated millions of Belize dollars to a trust fund to help ease the lives of the citizens of Belize.  Bliss was born in 1869 as Henry Edward Ernest Victor Barrettes. In his early adulthood, he took the familial title of Fourth Baron Barreto. He was a successful engineer and earned substantial wealth by manufacturing gun parts for the British. He also served for several years as an excellent Justice of the Peace, often advocating for people’s rights and preventing several conflicts.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Inflation Rate (February), PPI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 10, 2024

Global

• Ramadan begins for Muslims around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Portugal holds snap parliamentary elections. The elections come in the wake of the resignation of Prime Minister Antonio Costa, who is under investigation for corruption.

• Italy holds regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the deadline Israel has given Hamas to release all hostages.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Final Q4, Industrial Production (January)

• Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q4

• Egypt Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead: December 11 - 18, 2022

It seems to be getting busier – not slower – globally as we approach the holidays… This week, President Biden will host a summit with more than 50 African heads of state in Washington. The big news coming from it leaked this weekend: The US will endorse the African Union becoming a member of the G20, a long-held aspiration of African leaders as they seek to be better heard on the global stage.

Other significant events this week include Japan publishing a new strategic defense document that will codify their efforts to build a sizeable counterattack force in the face of rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific. This comes as the US opens its first Space Force operations in South Korea to assist in defending against North Korea’s growing missile capabilities. Closer to home, the US government will endure yet another partial shutdown unless Congress can agree on government spending. 

On the global economic agenda this week, we will be watching as the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England all decide on policy rates. All three are expected to lessen the pace of rate increases from 75 basis points to 50 basis points. Also, this week, we will see US inflation figures which come out on Tuesday, the day before the Fed rates decision. We will also be looking closely at PMIs coming out all over the globe this week. 

Here is what we are watching around the world this week – and let us know if you have any questions or wish to add anyone to our email list:

Sunday, December 11, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       A delegation of senior US national security and diplomat officials will travel to Beijing as follow-up meetings coming from President Biden’s meeting with President Xi at the G20 Summit.  This is seen as a positive outcome from the Biden-Xi meetings, and the overall agenda for the US-Chinese officials is, according to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, to continue “responsibly managing the competition” and “explore areas of cooperation.”  The US officials were already scheduled for consultation meetings in Japan and South Korea through December 14th but will now incorporate meetings with Chinese officials, as well.

·       Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court will certify Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s presidential election victory.  He will be formally inaugurated as president on January 1, 2023.

·       NASA’s Artemis I due to splashdown back down on Earth.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will hold phone calls with the presidents of Russia and Ukraine.  The purpose of the calls is to discuss the UN-backed Black Sea grain deal and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets today and tomorrow seeking to reach a political agreement on fishing opportunities in EU and non-EU waters for 2023. They will also discuss the market situation, CAP strategic plans, geographical indications and quality schemes, animal welfare, as well as the sustainable use of plant protection products and front of pack labelling.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s formal deadline for the formation of a new government under Benjamin Netanyahu. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Burkina Faso celebrates Proclamation of Independence Day

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 12, 2022:

Global

·       G7 Leaders Meeting via video conference.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Security Council subsidiary organs. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress is in session all week and hopes to hold a vote on an Omnibus appropriations bill. But as of this weekend, Republicans and Democrats remain billions of dollars apart in reaching a deal.  Failure to reach a deal will result in a partial government shutdown.  Separately, the Senate is poised to vote sometime this week on a $858 billion defense spending bill that was passed by the House of Representatives last week. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Consumer Inflation Expectations (November), Monthly Budget Statement (November),

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem participates in a fireside chat hosted by the Business Council of British Columbia in Vancouver, BC.

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Business Confidence (December)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.

·       In Japan, the kanji – or Chinese character – that best describes this year’s social mood in Japan is selected.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India Manufacturing Production (October), Inflation (November), Industrial Production (October),

·       Japan PPIs (November),  BSI Large Manufacturing (Q4), Machine Tool Orders (November)

·       Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (October & November)

·       Philippines FDI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets to discuss the situation in Ukraine as well as in Iran.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will meet with ambassadors from the Commonwealth of Independent States in Moscow. 

·       The Eastern Partnership Foreign Ministers meet in Brussels.  Composed of the EU Foreign Ministers and the Foreign Ministers of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova, and Ukraine, they will discuss mutual security concerns.

·       EU President Ursula von Der Leyen meets with Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), and then conducts a joint press conference with him. Later in the day, she participates in a G7 Leaders meeting via video conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       UK GDP (October), Manufacturing (October), Balance of Trade (October), Construction Output (October), Industrial Production (October), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (November)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (October), Current Account (October), Participation Rate (October), Auto Production (November)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (October),

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenya celebrates Jamhuri Day – Independence Day – a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (November)

·       Ethiopia Inflation (November)

·       Tanzania Inflation (November)

Tuesday, December 13, 2022:

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) and South Sudan sanctions.  

·       The virtual World Space Forum 2022 begins and runs through December 15th.  The Forum, organized jointly by the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), the Federal Ministry for Climate Action, Environment, Energy, Mobility, Innovation and Technology (BMK) and the Federal Ministry for Europe, Integration and Foreign Affairs (BMEIA), it will continue until 15 December.    

·       The annual Geminids meteor shower is likely to peak on Tuesday evening – watch for lots of shooting stars.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden will be hosting the US-Africa Leaders’ Summit in Washington, DC. Through December 15th.  More than 50 heads of state are expected to attend. Africa is set to be a major focus for the Biden Administration for the next two years in a. bid to help advance the continent economically and to push back on growing Chinese influence. In advance of the meeting, the White House announced that President Biden will announce his support of the African Union joining the G20 going forward, a major goal of the Union for a number of years.

·       The founder and former CEO of the failed crypto exchange FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, is expected to testify remotely before the House Financial Services Committee to explain what happened and where billions of dollars in crypto accounts disappeared to.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Markets Committee starts two days of meetings to discuss interest rates.  A decision on interest rates announced with a press conference afterward with Fed Chair Jay Powell.

·       US NFIB Business Optimism Index (November), Inflation Rate Figures (November), CPI (November), Redbook (December), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (December)

·       Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (October)

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (December), NAB Business Confidence (November)

·       Philippines Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (October)

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Extraordinary Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council meets to consider a proposal for a Council regulation on a temporary gas market correction mechanism.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets focus on the upcoming European Council meeting (December 15th) and discuss the annual rule of law dialogue and follow-up to the Conference on the Future of Europe. The Council will be called upon to approve the Joint Declaration on the EU legislative priorities for 2023-2024 and conclusions on enlargement and stabilization and association process.

·       Malta celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday.

·       The European Space Agency launches an Ariane 5 rocket carrying the Metosat 3rd generation satellite.  The launch takes place in French Guiana.

·       The UK will see a 48-hour strike by more than 40,000 Network Rail and 14 other rail unions over jobs, pay, and working conditions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (November), CPI (November), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December), ZEW Current Conditions (December)

·       France Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3)

·       UK Employment Rate (October), HMRC Payrolls Change (November)

·       Bank of England publishes their financial stability report.

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Italy Industrial Production (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

·       Israel Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa's National Assembly is expected to vote on the adoption of an advisory panel's report recommending an impeachment investigation into President Cyril Ramaphosa.  Ramaphosa is accused of keeping millions of US dollars in a sofa at his farmhouse.  When the money was stolen, it is alleged he did not report the crime to cover up the fact that he illegally kept that much foreign currency.  Ramaphosa will almost assuredly be renominated by the ANC Party at their December 16th election conference and, considering his high popularity polls in South Africa, will unlikely be impeached.

·       The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Ghana are expected to reach a staff-level agreement on a loan likely in the $3 billion range.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (October), Mining Production (October)

Wednesday, December 14, 2022:

Global

·       The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release the December Oil Market Report.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Maintenance of international peace and security.  The debate is entitled “new orientation for reformed multilateralism.”  

·       The World Health Organization (WHO) will today release its Global Analysis and Assessment of Sanitation and Drinking-Water (GLAAS) 2022 report, showing the latest status of drinking-water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) systems in more than 120 countries.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US House of Representative’s January 6th Committee will likely announce criminal referrals they intend to make to the US Justice Department. 

·       The US Securities and Exchange Commission will hold an open meeting to consider four proposed rule changes aimed at increasing transparency and fairness for investors.  The proposals, opposed by segments of the securities industry, are likely to pass a commission vote.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee announces rate increase. Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference immediately afterward.

·       US Import Prices (November), Export Pries (November), MBA Mortgage Markets Index (December), MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December 9)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (October)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (October)

·       Peru Unemployment (November)

·       Costa Rica Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The US will inaugurate its US Space Forces Korea unit based at Osan Air Base in South Korea.  This comes as North Korea raises tensions on the peninsula with recent launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles. 

·       Senior officials from the International Monetary Fund will make a two-day visit to Bangladesh to discuss a proposed $4.5 billion IMF loan.

·       Fiji holds general elections.

·       SEMI, the global semiconductor industry group, holds its annual Japan trade show Wednesday through Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (November), Outstanding Loan Growth (November), Total Social Financing (November), M2 Money Supply (November)

·       India WPI Inflation (November), WPI Food (November), WPI Fuel (November), WPI Manufacturing (November)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4),Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q4), Tankan Large All Industry. Capex (Q4), Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook (Q4),  Machinery Orders (October), Industrial Production (October), Capacity Utilization (October)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate (Q3), Car Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-ASEAN Commemorative Summit will be held in Brussels.  It marks 45 years of diplomatic relations between the two organizations. The two groups will discuss expanding trade and infrastructure cooperation.

·       The 2022 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought will be awarded by the European Parliament to the Ukrainian people for bravery.   Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to address plenary remotely. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a pre-recorded speech at the Finance and Biodiversity Day-COP15 meetings in Montreal, Canada.

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (October)

·       UK Inflation (November), Retail Price Index (November)

·       Spain Inflation (November), CPI (November)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (November)

·       Poland Industrial Production (October), Balance of Trade (October), Current Account (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will hold talks with the presidents of Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan to discuss projects to deliver Turkmen natural gas across the Caspian Sea and onward to Europe. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account (Q3)

·       Saudi Arabia Interest Rate Decision

·       UA Interest Rate Decision

·       Oman Total Credit (October), M2 Money Supply (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa inflation (November), Retail Sales (October

·       Ghana inflation (November)

·       Mauritius interest-rate decision

·       Kenya monthly fuel prices

Thursday, December 15, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts: Global counter-terrorism approach – principles and the way forward. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Colombia and Venezuela will reopen the Tienditas International Bridge border crossing for the first time since the two countries severed diplomatic relations in 2015.

·       NASA will launch the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite.  The role of the satellite is to conduct the world’s first comprehensive survey of Earth’s water surfaces, from oceans to lakes and rivers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Retail Sales (November), Industrial Production (November), Business Inventories (October),  Manufacturing Production (November), Capacity Utilization (November), Initial Jobless Claims (December 10),  Philly Fed Employment (December), Philly Fed Business Conditions (December), Philly Fed CAPEX Index (December), Philly Fed New Orders (December), NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (December), Net Long-Term TIC Flows (October)

·       Canada Housing Starts (November)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

·       Colombia Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

·       Peru GDP (October), Balance of Trade (October)

·       Argentina GDP (Q3), Inflation Rate (November)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will host the Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing.  This is the highest-level meeting on economic affairs to be attended by President Xi Jinping and where China’s leadership will set broad economic policy direction for next year. Reports suggest officials will now seek to boost consumer demand and possibly seek to further soften policies around the property sector.   The meeting runs for three days.

·       India will tentatively test the Agni-5, a long-range ballistic missile, from the east coast of Odisha state. The Agni-5 is India’s surface-to-surface ballistic missile capable of hitting a target 5,000 kilometers away with pinpoint accuracy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China’s People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement, Industrial Production (November), Retail Sales (November), House Prices Index (November), Unemployment Rate (November), FDI (November)

·       India Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (November),  M3 Money Supply (November 28)

·       Japan Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (November), Tertiary Industry Index (October)

·       Australia Consume Inflation Investments (December), Unemployment Figures (November)

·       Honk Kong Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (November)

·       South Korea Export Prices (November), Import Prices (November)

·       Taiwan Interest Rate Decision

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing and Services PMIs (November), PPI (October), Current Account (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU’s European Council (Heads of State) will meet hold “strategic discussions on transatlantic relations.”  This goes to the ongoing trade fight between the US and EU over green subsidies and tax credits passed by Congress in the Inflation Reduction Act.

·       UK’s nurses are expected to go on strike through December 20th as they seek wage increases.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank meets in Frankfurt, Germany to discuss interest rate increases and the state of the EU economy.  ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference afterward.

·       ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a panel at the “New Frontiers in Banking and Capital Markets Conference” in Rome, Italy.

·       The Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (November), New Car Registrations (November)

·       Eurozone New Car Registrations (November)

·       France Business Confidence (December), Inflation Rate (November), Business Climate Indicator (December), New Car Registrations (November)

·       UK New Car Registrations (November)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (October)

·       Italy New Car Registrations (November)

·       Hungary Construction Output (October), New Car Registrations (November)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (November),  New Car Registrations (November)

·       Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia GDP (Q3)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (September and October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Budget Balance (November), FX Reserves (December)

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (November), Inflation Rate (November), M1 Money Supply (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa non-farm payrolls (Q3), PPI (November), Building Permits (October), Central Bank Quarterly Bulletin

·       Namibia GDP (Q3), Inflation (November)

·       Botswana Inflation (November)

·       Nigeria Inflation (November)

·       Mozambique Inflation (November)

Friday, December 16, 2022: 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold votes linked to the 1988 Committee, regarding Afghanistan. The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL).    

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US government funding expires. Unless a deal is struck, the government will be partially shut down.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly will speak at an American Enterprise Institute event on "Inflation, the Economy, and the Federal Reserve."

·       US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December),  S&P Global Composite PMI (December)

·       Canada Inflation (November), New Housing Price Index (November), Wholesale Sales (October)

·       Colombia Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru GDP (Q3)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan is expected to approve three defense related strategy documents – including the National Security Strategy – updating for the first time since 2013 Japan’s defense posture.  The documents will codify Japan’s ability to develop a military counterattack capability to any attacks on the country.

·       Kazakhstan celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India GDP (Q3), FX Reserves (December), Bank Loan Growth (December), Deposit Growth (December)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (December), Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMIs (December)

·       Singapore Balance of Trade/Exports (November)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (December)

·       Philippines Business Confidence (Q4)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK’s Heathrow Airport ground handling staff are expected to start a 72-hour strike.

·       Also in the UK, more than 100 Eurostar security staff employed by facilities management company Mitie are due to walk out in a dispute over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone Inflation Rate (November), Balance of Trade (October), CPI (November), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December),  S&P Global Composite PMI (December)

·       UK GfK Consumer Confidence (December), Retail Sales (November), S&P Global/CIPS UK Services & Manufacturing & Composite PMIs (December)

·       Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December),  S&P Global Composite PMI (December)

·       France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), S&P Global Services PMI (December),  S&P Global Composite PMI (December)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (October), Inflation Rate (November), CPI (November)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (November)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       An International Monetary Fund delegation is expected to travel to Egypt to review a plan to release a multibillion-dollar extended fund facility.

·       Bahrain celebrates National Days – today and tomorrow – on the anniversary of its independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana GDP (Q3)

·       Kenya Balance of Trade (July/August/September)

Saturday, December 17, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bhutan celebrates National Day, a holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ireland will see Fine Gael political leader Leo Varadkar become Taoiseach (Prime Mininster0 again as part of a coalition agreement with the rival Finna Fáil Party.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Tunisia holds legislative elections. The country has witnessed several major political developments in the last 18 months which are seen as threatening its democratic stability.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa’s ANC (African National Congress) begins its elective conference and elect party leadership.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 18, 2022: 

Global

·       The World Cup comes to a close in Qatar, with the championship being played today. 

·       The Jewish Festival of Rededication – also known as Hanukkah – begins today and goes through December 25th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Japan, the Saga gubernatorial election is to be held.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Qatar celebrates National Independence Day, a holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP (Q3)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Niger celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead: November 27- December 4, 2022

This week, we will be watching closely something that is not on the global calendar: Growing protests across China where protestors are shouting, “Down with the Communist Party! Down with Xi Jinping!” These are unprecedented acts of civil disobedience in Communist China and are the result of growing draconian COVID lockdowns.  Markets will be asking: How long will Xi allow the protests in Shanghai, Beijing, and other major cities before instituting tough crack-downs? All this is going on as European Council President Charles Michel visits Beijing to help patch up increasingly rough relations between the EU and China. 

Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron travels to Washington on Wednesday to meet with President Joe Biden. They are expected to discuss not only the state of the war in Ukraine but also growing US-EU tensions on everything from electric vehicle subsidies the US Congress recently approved in the Inflation Reduction Act to EU accusations the US is profiteering off the war.

On the global economic radar screen, markets will look at the US jobs report and the PCE inflation reading. Also, Fed Chair Jay Powell is giving a closely watched speech at the Brooking Institution on Wednesday, the same day the Fed publishes the Beige Book. In Europe, the CPI releases will be the significant focus, along with several speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde. In Asia, China is expected to release PMIs and Japan has several important economic activity indicators being released. 

Here is what we are watching around the world this week.  Let us know if you have any questions or if you would like to be added anyone to our mailing list:

Sunday, November 27, 2022

Global

·       The First Day of Advent in the Gregorian Christian Calendar marking the start of the western church’s countdown to Christmas.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Mongolia’s President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsuh will visit Beijing for meetings on mutual issues of concern.

·       Japan’s and the Philippines’ air forces will conduct unit-to-unit exchanges and training sessions through December 11th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Industrial Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Monday, November 28, 2022:

Global

·       The G-7 Justice Ministers will meet in Berlin, Germany. This is the first such meeting of justice ministers and Germany holds the G-7 presidency.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the Middle East.

·       The UN Office of Counter-Terrorism will hold a virtual event entitled Safeguarding the Metaverse: Countering Terrorism and Preventing Violent Extremism in Digital Space,  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress returns to work after taking last week off for Thanksgiving.  They will be working on a number of market-sensitive issues including raising the debt ceiling, passing the defense appropriations bill, and figuring out what to do with the US budget.

·       Argentina celebrates National Sovereignty Day.

·       “Cyber Monday” in the US, offering online retailers to off post-Thanksgiving holiday deals.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks at the Economic Club of New York.

·       US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (November)

·       Canada Current Account (Q3)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Bank Lending (October)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Amamiya Masayoshi to speak at the 2022 Autumn Annual Meeting of the Japan Society of Monetary Economics in Kobe, Japan.

·       Australia Retail Sales (October)

·       Hong Kong Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Moscow.  This is part of the Russia-Kazakhstan Interregional Cooperation Forum, which seeks greater economic cooperation between the two countries.  The leaders meet in the face of Kazakhstan, increasingly critical of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

·       NATO will hold their Exercise Cyber Coalition 22 (through December 2nd).  It is NATO’s largest training exercise and is aimed at training participants how to defend NATO and critical national networks.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) will meet in Brussels.  This will be a follow-up meeting to discuss the EU-African Union Summit held February 17-18.  They will also discuss Ukraine and Afghanistan.

·       The European Parliament Committee of Inquiry holds hearings tomorrow (November 29) investigating the use of Pegasus and equivalent surveillance spyware in the EU, particularly its use in Spain.

·       Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visits the UK for talks with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

·       UK Prime Minister addresses the Lord Mayor’s Banquet in London.  Traditionally, at this event, the Prime Minister focuses on foreign policy and where he/she sees it going.

·       The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sport Council meets in Brussels to discuss the European Education Area in times of Russia’s War of aggression against Ukraine and other major issues.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Moussa Faki, Chair of the African Union Commission, and co-chairs with him the 11th Commission-to-Commission meeting between the EU and the African Union.

·       The GMB Scotland union (which serves in the Scottish Ambulance Service) begin a 26-hour strike for more pay.

·       Albania celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde makes a (virtual) statement before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in Brussels.  She will brief them on the current economic situation in the Eurozone, particularly with regard to inflation as a global challenge.

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel on “How safe and inclusive are crypto payments?” at the Financial Times Live’s Crypto and Digital Assets Summit in London.

·       Eurozone Loans to Households (October), Loans to Companies (October)

·       UK CBI Distributive Trades (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (October)

·       Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (October), M3 Money Supply (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Internet Governance Forum is held in Addis Ababa.  UN Secretary-General António Guterres and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will speak.

·       Mauritania celebrates its Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision (expected to be raised 150 bps to 26 percent)  

Tuesday, November 29, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council holds a briefing on the situation in Syria.

·       The UN Peacekeeping Commission meets on the situation in Guinea-Bissau.

·       The UN will host a hybrid launch of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) State of Global Water Resources report 2021.

·       Financial Times Global Banking Summit begins in London.  Leading global bank CEOs are expected to speak as well as key regulators.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The United States and Russia are expected to begin new START nuclear talks in Egypt through December 6th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook speaks at the Detroit Economic Club on “The Outlook for Monetary Policy and Observations on the Evolving Economy”

·       US Redbook (November), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (September), House Price Index (September), CB Consumer Confidence (November), CB Consumer Confidence (November), Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (November)

·       Canada GDP (October)

·       Brazil PPIs (October)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Laos’ President Thongloun Sisoulith makes an official visit to China and meetings with President Xi Jinping.  Laos is one of the least developed countries in Southeast Asia and highly dependent on China for trade – it is estimated 65 percent of its GDP is debt exposure to China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Unemployment Figures (October), Retail Sales (October)

·       Singapore Export Prices (October), Import Prices (October), PPIs (October)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (November), Industrial Production (November), Inflation Rate (November), Retail Sales (November), Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Taiwan GDP (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The foreign ministers of NATO’s North Atlantic Council will meet in Bucharest to discuss the Ukraine War.  They will also discuss how best to implement commitments each of the countries made in their June meetings as well as the progress of gaining full membership of Sweden and Finland into NATO.

·       The EU-Organization of African, Caribbean and Pacific States (OACPS) ministerial meeting is held in Brussels.  They will discuss trade, economic and financial cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives evidence to the Lords Economic Affairs Committee.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos offers opening remarks (virtually) at XIII Encuentro Financiero organized by Expansión.

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the Keynote speech on “Preisdynamik und Zinswende” followed by a discussion at a conference organized by IG Metall in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England’s Catherine Mann speaks (virtually) as a panelist at The Conference Board's Navigating the Economic Storm, ‘Policy solutions: fiscal and monetary”

·       Eurozone Economic Sentiment (November), Industrial Sentiment (November), Selling Price Expectations (November), Services Sentiment (November), Consumer Sentiment (November), Consumer Confidence (November), Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (November), North Rhine Westphalia CPIs (November), Baden Wuerttemberg CPIs (November), Bavaria CPIs (November), Brandenburg CPIs (November), Hesse CPIs (November), Saxony CPIs (November)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (September), PPIs (October)

·       UK BoE Consumer Credit (October), Mortgage Lending (October), Net Lending to Individuals (October)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (November), CPI (November), Harmonized Inflation Rate (November), GDP Growth (Q3), Business Confidence (November)

·       Switzerland GDP (Q3)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (November), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (October)

·       Iran Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Private Sector Credit (October), M3 Money Supply (October), Unemployment Rate (Q3)

·       Lesotho’s Interest Rate Decision 

Wednesday, November 30, 2022: 

Global

·       The UN Peacekeeping Commission will hold an ambassadorial-level follow-up meeting to Monday’s meeting on the situation in Burundi.

·       the UN’s International Labor Organization (ILO) is expected to release its Global Wage Report for 2022/2023.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Washington DC for meetings with President Biden.  They will discuss a full slate of issues ranging from the Ukraine War to China to emerging US-EU trade tension over electric car subsidies.  He will be in Washington through December 1st.

·       The US Senate Banking Committee will hold a nomination hearing for Martin Gruenberg for the role of Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).  This will likely be a heated event as Republican Senators are angry over Gruenberg’s role in ousting the last chair, Jelena McWilliams. The hearing will also give insights into the Biden Administration’s financial regulatory agenda for the next two years.

·       The House of Representatives Democratic Leadership elections are to be held.  Representative Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is expected to be elected Minority Leader, replacing Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) who announced she was stepping back from a leadership role.

·       President Biden hosts the lighting of the National Christmas Tree in Washington, DC.

·       Barbados celebrates Independence Day.

·       Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell speaks at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC on the “Economic Outlook, Inflation, and the Labor Market.”

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks (virtually) at the KBW CEO Strategy Forum.

·       US GDP (Q3), Fed Beige Book released, JOLTS Figures (October), ADP Employment Change (November), Goods Trade Balance (October), Retail Inventories Ex-Autos (October), PCE Prices (Q3), Real Consumer Spending (Q3),  Corporate Profits (Q3), MBA Mortgage Indexes (November), Pending Home Sales (October)

·       Brazil Unemployment Rate (October), Nominal Budget Balance (October)

·       Chile Copper Production (October), Industrial Production (October), Manufacturing Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (October)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Ispace – a Japanese space start-up – will have its moon lander launched by a SpaceX Falcon 9 from Cape Canaveral in Japan.   The lander carries small lunar rovers from the UAE and Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (November), NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (November), NBS General PMI (November)

·       India GDP (Q3), Infrastructure Output (October), Government Budget Value (October)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (October)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision, Private Consumption (October), Industrial Production (October), Current Account (October), Coincident Report (October), Retail Sales (October)

·       South Korea Construction Output (October), Industrial Production (October), Manufacturing Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

·       Japan Industrial Production (October), Housing Starts (October), Construction Orders (October)

·       Australia Construction Work Done (Q3), Monthly CPI Indicator (October), Building Permits (October), Private House Approvals (October), Private Sector Credit (October), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (November)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) foreign ministers meet in Lodz, Poland.

·       NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg addresses the Berlin Security Conference.

·       The UK’s Royal Mail staff go on strike through Thursday.

·       St. Andrew’s Day, a public holiday in Scotland.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB’s Non-Monetary Policy Meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England’s Huw Pill speaks (virtually) at  Speech at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales Economic Summit

·       Eurozone Inflation Rate (November), CPI (November)

·       Germany Unemployment Rate (October), Import Prices (October)

·       France Inflation Rate (November), GDP (Q3), Household Consumption (October), PPIs (October)

·       Italy GDP (Q3), Inflation Rate Figures (November), CPI (November)

·       Spain Retail Sales (October), Current Account (September)

·       Hungary PPIs (October)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (November), Economic Sentiment Index (November)

·       Poland GDP (Q3)

·       Russia GDP (October), Unemployment Rate (October), Real Wage Growth (September), Business Confidence (November), Retail Sales (October), M2 Money Supply (October)

·       Ukraine Current Account (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey GDP (Q3)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (October)

·       Qatar Total Credit Growth (November), M2 Money Supply (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Balance of Trade (October)

·       Nigeria FX Reserves (November)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (November)

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, December 1, 2022:

Global

·       India assumes the presidency of the G20.

·       India assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council.

·       Today is the first day of the meteorological winter in the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Democratic Party leaders begin three days of meetings to figure out the orders of states voting in the 2024 presidential primaries.  The debate is over whether Nevada or New Hampshire will go first and will Michigan or Minnesota will replace Iowa in the order.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Michael Barr speaks (virtually) at the American Enterprise Institute on bank capital.

·       US Challenger Job Cuts (November), Personal Income (October), PCE Price Index (October), Initial Jobless Claims (November), Core PCE Price Index (October), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), ISM Manufacturing PMI/Manufacturing Employment PMI/Manufacturing New Orders/Manufacturing Prices (November), Construction Spending (October),

·       Brazil GDP (Q3), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Balance of Trade (November)

·       Canada Labor Productivity (Q3), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (November), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (October)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The trial of Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai begins in Hong Kong.  He is charged with conspiring to collude with foreign forces under tough new national security laws imposed by Beijing.

Economic Reports Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will give a virtual address to the Asian Development Bank Institute as part of the Institute’s Conference entitled 25th Anniversary Celebration: Strategies for Developing Asia’s Future.

·       Bank of Japan Board Member Noguichi Asahi to give remarks at a meeting with local leaders in Akita, Japan.

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       South Korea GDP (Q3), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (November), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Japan Capital Spending (Q3), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (November), Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (October)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Inflation Rate (November), Tourist Arrivals (October)

· Australia's Balance of Trade (November), Building Capital Expenditures (Q3), Plant Machinery Capital Expenditures (November), Private Capital Expenditures (Q3), Commodity Prices (November)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Business Confidence (November)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (November), Wholesale Prices (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Council President Charles Michel will travel to Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Michel, representing the leaders of the EU’s 27 members, will discuss the future of the EU-China relationship.  It is the first time Michel has traveled officially to China and comes as increasing tensions over trade and human rights are leading many EU countries to reconsider their relationship with China.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market and Industry) meet in Brussels.  They will discuss cars, household appliances, and electronics and the impact of geostrategic and value chain disruptions.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Dublin to help celebrate Ireland’s 50th anniversary of EU membership. Von der Leyen will address a rare joint session of the houses of parliament.

·       Portugal celebrates Independence Day.

·       Romania celebrates Independence Day.

·       London sees the lighting of the Norwegian Christmas Tree in Trafalgar Square.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB General Council Meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria offers an introductory statement before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels. 

·       ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the  Keynote speech at the Annual Banque de France / EUI conference in Florence, Italy. 

·       ECB Board Member Frank Elderson at Lustrum Symposium organized by Vereniging voor Financieel Recht in Amsterdam, Sweden.

·       Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Germany Retail Sales (October), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       UK Nationwide Housing Prices (November), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (October), Inflation Rate (October), CPI (November), procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (Q3), GDP (Q3), HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Corporate Profits (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (November), MPC Meeting Summary

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique’s Supreme Court to deliver ruling in hidden-debt trial.

·       The Central African Republic celebrates Republic Day.

·       Chad celebrates Freedom and Democracy Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (November)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (November), total New Vehicle Sales (November)

Friday, December 2, 2022: 

Global

·       Release of the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index (November)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Northrop Grumman Company and the US Air Force are expected to unveil the new B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber, the most advanced plane in the world.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Non-Farm Payrolls (November), Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Canada Unemployment Figures (November)

·       Brazil IPC-FIPE Inflation Figures (November)

·       Mexico FX Reserves (October)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (October), Inflation Rate (November)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue Estimates (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN+3 Economic Cooperation and Financial Stability Forum is held in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. This year’s agenda will focus on sustainability and regional economic and financial developments with keynote speeches by China’s Finance Minister Liu Kun and Bank of Japan Governor Harukiko Kuroda as well as Ms. Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Finance Minister, Indonesia Ministry of Finance and Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, Finance Minister, Thailand Ministry of Finance.

·       The Bank of Thailand co-hosts a forum with the Bank for International Settlements. Among the expected speakers are Bank of China Governor Yi Gang, ECB President Christine Lagarde, BIS Chief Agustin Carstens, and Singapore Central Bank Chief Ravi Menon. 

·       Laos celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India FX Reserves (November), Deposit Growth (November), Bank Loan Growth (November)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (November), CPI (November)

·       Australia Reserve Bank Governor Lowe Philip Lowe to participate in the Bank of Thailand’s 80th Anniversary Conference in Bangkok, Thailand.

·       Australia Retail Sales (October), Home Loans (October), Investment Lending to Homes (October)

·       Philippines PPI (October)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (November), CPI (November), Inflation Figures (November)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (October), SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) meet in Brussels.  They will discuss research infrastructures and the New European Innovation Agenda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel session, "Growth and Inflation Dynamics," at Bank of Thailand's 80th Anniversary Conference, "Central banking amidst shifting ground," jointly organized with the Bank for International Settlements in Bangkok, Thailand. 

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the closing speech at an event organized by OK Diario in Madrid, Spain.

·       Eurozone PPIs (October)

·       Germany Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October), S&P Global Composite PMI (November)

·       France Industrial Production (October), Budget Balance (October)

·       Spain Unemployment Figures (November), Tourist Arrivals (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The UAE celebrates National Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria’s Supreme Court to hold hearings into oil spills case involving Shell.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, December 3, 2022:

Global

·       Today is the 30th anniversary of the first short message service (SMS) being sent over a mobile phone.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde chairs a roundtable discussion on "The global dimensions of policy normalization" at Bank of Thailand's 80th Anniversary Conference "Central banking amidst shifting ground" jointly organized with the Bank for International Settlements in Bangkok, Thailand. 

·       France S&P Global Services PMI (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 4, 2022:

Global

·       The 33rd OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting is to be held in Vienna, Austria.

·       Today is “National Francis Day,”  celebrating all of us named Francis.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead: November 20 - 27, 2022

Looking at the geopolitical calendar this week, it will be relatively quiet (it should be after all those international summits last week).  We are watching two significant actions this week: The G7 states are expected to announce a ceiling price on purchases of Russian oil for their price cap mechanism that begins on December 5th.   While governments and markets have been anticipating this for several months, it may significantly impact Russia's economy and its ability to fund the War on Ukraine.  Also, this week the European Parliament is likely to pass a resolution naming Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. 

The global economic reporting calendar is relatively quiet this week, in part because the US will quickly slide into an extended Thanksgiving holiday.  But we will be watching the Federal Open Market Committee minutes which will be released on Wednesday, and South Korea, South Africa, and Turkey will decide interest rates.  Turkey is likely to be an outlier among the world's central banks as it is expected to cut rates by 15 basis points.   And the OECD will be providing an update on their global economic outlook forecasts on Tuesday.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, November 20, 2022

Global

·       The World Cup begins in Doha, Qatar, and runs through December 18. 

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       The Inter-American Development Bank is expected to choose a new president.  The previous president, Mauricio Claver-Carone, was fired in September for having an inappropriate relationship with a subordinate and rewarding her with large pay raises.

·       US President Biden celebrates his 80th birthday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       Kazakhstan holds snap presidential elections (two years earlier than expected).

·       Nepal holds national and provincial elections. It is the fourth election ever held since the abolition of the monarchy. But political instability has led to 13 different governments in the past 16 years.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       London’s “Big Ben” will ring its bells for the first since 2017. 

·       It will ring once at 11 a.m. to mark a two-minute moment of silence for those lost in World War I&II.  

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a formal dinner of the European Round Table for Industry in Paris.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       Equatorial Guinea holds presidential, legislative, and local elections. 

·       The leaders of Francophone African countries will gather for the Francophonie Summit in Djerba, Tunisia.  French President Emmanuel Macron will attend.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 21, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Da’esh), Al-Qaida, and associated individuals, groups, undertakings, and entities.

·       The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is expected to release its Near East and North Africa - Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President Kamala Harris arrives in the Philippines.  She will meet with President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. in Manila.  And then tomorrow, travel to the Province of the Palawan Island to be briefed on the disputed South China Sea, where China has reclaimed and militarized islands to assert territorial control over the area.  Harris had a brief impromptu sideline meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Cambodia this past week during the ASEAN Summit.  Her visit to Palawan could raise tensions further with China as she is the highest-ranking US official to tour the island and its close proximity to the disputed Spratly Islands.

·       President Biden hosts the traditional pardoning of the Thanksgiving Turkey at the White House.

·       The US Congress is out of session this week for the Thanksgiving holiday.

·       Chile’s trucking union to go on strike in the northern portion of the country over increasing security concerns.  Chile has seen a significant uptick in cargo theft and assaults on drivers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly gives the keynote speech at the Orange County Business Council.

·       US Chicago Fed National Activity Report (October)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate (1Y), Loan Prime Rate (November)

·       Thailand GDP (Q3)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (October), Current Account (Q3), Inflation Rate (October)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Italian government is set to approve a draft budget law for 2023, the first for new Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meet in Brussels.

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament, to discuss ongoing issues.  She then meets with Mr. Manfred Weber, Ms. Iratxe García-Pérez, and Mr. Stéphane Séjourné, Chairs of the European People’s Party Group, the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats and the Renew Europe Groups in the European Parliament

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gives a speech on the state of Germany’s economy at the Sueddeutsche Zeitung Economic Summit in Berlin.

·       Berlin’s famous Weihnachtsmärkte (Christmas Markets) open across the city.

·       The UK’s CBI (Confederation of British Industry) Annual Conference begins in Birmingham.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo gives remarks at a conference "La proposition de directive bancaire CRDVI et les relations Afrique – Europe" organized by A. Gauvin & Raji Avocats in Paris.

·       Germany PPIs (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Figures (October)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·      Kenya hosts the Democratic Republic of Congo Peace Talks in Nairobi.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to announce Malawi to be the first low-income country to receive funding through its food-shock window.

Tuesday, November 22, 2022:

Global

·       The OECD releases its Economic Outlook.

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss piracy in the Gulf of Guinea. The Gulf has become the leading region for global kidnappings at sea, accounting for 90 percent of the world total.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President Kamala Harris to visit the Philippines’ Palawan Province to discuss maritime operations in the South China Sea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Loretta Mester gives opening remarks at the Bank’s “Wages and Inflation” Conference.

·       US Redbook (November), Richmond Fed Services Index (November), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (November)

·       Canadian Central Bank Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers does a fireside chat at the Young Canadians in Finance Conference in Ottawa.  She will give an assessment of the risks to the stability of the Canadian financial system.
Ottawa, Ontario

·       Canada Retail Sales (September), Wholesale Sales (September), New Housing Price Index (October)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (September)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (October)

·       Peru GDP(Q3)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Defense Ministers meet in Siem Reap, Cambodia. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, along with his counterparts from Japan and China, have also been invited to attend. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Australia Central Bank Governor Lowe speech.

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council (Cohesion) meets.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel in Moscow.  While there, both leaders will participate in the unveiling of a statue honoring late Cuban revolutionary dictator Fidel Castro. 

·       King Charles III hosts South African President Cyril Ramaphosa for a state visit.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (October)

·       Eurozone Current Account (September), Consumer Confidence Flash (November)

·       Poland Employment Growth (October), PPIs (October), Corporate Sector Wages (October)

·       Italy Current Account (September)

·       Ukraine Retail Sales (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Qatar Total Credit Growth (October), Money Supply (October)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Multiple South African Unions representing more than one million workers – including the civil servants union – will go on strike over wages.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (September)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, November 23, 2022: 

Global

·       The G7 states are expected to announce a ceiling price on purchases of Russian oil for their price cap mechanism that begins on December 5th.  Here is a brief explanation of how the cap will likely work.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US FMOC Minutes released, MBA Mortgage Data (30-year rate, mortgage refinancing’s, purchase index), Building Permits (October), Durable Goods Orders (October), Initial Jobless Claims, S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI reports (November), New Home Sales (October), Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations (November)

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers appear before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance in Ottawa.

·       Argentina Economic Activity (September)

·       Panama IMAE Economic Activity (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (November)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (November)

·       Indonesia M2 Supply (October)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (October)

·       Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

·       Singapore GDP (Q3), CPI (October)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

·       New Zealand monetary policy announcement.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Parliament will likely vote today on resolutions naming Russia a state sponsor of terrorism.

·       The European Parliament is expected to approve a new strategy for enlarging the bloc.  This is likely to lead to the EU formally considering Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia becoming members of the EU.

·       The UK’s Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling on whether the Scottish Parliament has the power to pass a referendum bill without the British Parliament’s approval. The Scottish Parliament is attempting to legislate approval of a second referendum on Scottish independence.  

·       Armenia will host the heads of state summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).   Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend, where discussions around international and regional security will be held.   Putin has been attempting to negotiate a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan and he may attempt to advance negotiations with sideline talks with the leaders of the two countries.

·       The EU’s European Economic Area Council meets to discuss mutual economic issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Luis de  Guindos gives the opening speech at the XXIX Encuentro del Sector Financiero "Retos y oportunidades de un sector en transformación" organized by Deloitte in Madrid, Spain. 

·       ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates on a panel "El rol del consejo en la transformación" at XXIX Encuentro del Sector Financiero "Retos y oportunidades de un sector en transformación" organised by Deloitte in Madrid, Spain. 

·       Germany S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI reports (November)

·       France S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI reports (November)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI reports (November)

·       UK S&P/CIPS Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI reports (November)

·       Poland Retail Sales (October)

·       Russia PPIs (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (October)

·       Zambia Interest Rate Decision (October)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision (October)

Thursday, November 24, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US celebrates Thanksgiving, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (September)

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (November), IPCA Mid-Month CPI (November), Federal Tax Revenues (October)

·       Chile PPIs (October)

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Mid-Month Inflation (November)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (November), Interest Rate Decision (November), Leading Indicators (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladesh will host the Indian Ocean Rim Association Council of Ministers.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has been invited to attend and while there is expected to hold bilateral meetings with Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing & Services & Composite PPIs (October), Coindicant Index (September)

·       Taiwan M2 Money Supply (October)

·       South Korea Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, PPIs (October)

·       Singapore Current Account (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Parliament is expected to approve an €18 billion loan to Ukraine for 2023.  Additionally, they are expected to pass a measure confirming that EU member states will not accept passports by Russia in illegally-occupied areas of Georgia and Ukraine.

·       The EU Extraordinary Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council meet to seek a political agreement on better coordination of gas purchases, exchange of gas across borders, and reliable price benchmarks.  They are also expected to seek political agreement on regulations laying out a temporary framework to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference in London, England.

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives a presentation of the 40th Board of Directors meeting of the European Savings and Retail Banking Group (ESRB) and the 19th ESBG General Assembly in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Analysis Forum in Milan, Italy.

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (November), IFO Current Conditions (November), Ifo Expectations (November)

·       France Business Confidence (November)

·       UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will meet with senior Indian officials to discuss a free trade agreement.  The GCC is composed of six countries: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain. India and the UAE already have a bilateral free trade pact signed in May.  Overall, India’s exports to the GCC increased by 58 percent in 2021-2022.

·       Lebanon’s National Assembly will meet again to try to elect a president. It will be the seventh time the Assembly has sought to agree on a president.  The Assembly is evenly split between Christians and Muslims, and whoever is chosen must get 2/3 of the vote. The Iranian-backed armed group, Hezbollah, is a major force in Lebanon’s politics, and they want a president who will allow them to further consolidate power in the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bahrain Inflation Report (October)

·       Kuwait Inflation Report (October)

·       Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (September)

·       Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Lending (November), FX Reserves (November),  Business Confidence (November), Capacity Utilization (November), Business Confidence (November),

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

South Africa Business Confidence (Q4), Interest Rate Decision, PPIs (October)

Ghana 2023 Budget

Zambia Inflation (November), Balance of Trade (October)

Kenya Central Bank Interest Rate Press Briefing

Nigeria GDP Growth Rate (Q3)

Friday, November 25, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) hosts the Pacific Alliance Leaders’ Summit which will include  the Presidents of Chile, Argentina, Ecuador, Peru, and Columbia.  The leaders are expected to discuss how to promote greater economic integration and possible free trade agreements. Additionally, AMLO intends to discuss how the attending nations can expert more power at the Organization of American States (OAS) which AMLO believes is subordinated to US interests.  No representatives from the US or Canada have been invited.  Additionally, the leaders are expected to discuss inviting Costa Rica as a member.

·       “Black Friday” sales in the US, one of the biggest sales days in the US for retailers who offer special sales to “stay in the black” for the year.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       A Hong Kong court will hand down a verdict over whether Roman Catholic Cardinal Joseph Zen and five other pro-democracy figures failed to register a legal fund with the police.  Their arrests set off worldwide condemnation.  The normal penalty for first-time offenders is HK $10,000.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India FX Reserves (November)

·       Japan CPIs (November)

·       Singapore GDP (Q3), Industrial Production (October)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (November), GDP (Q3)

·       Pakistan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Vietnam FDI report (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets to discuss development issues, specifically to follow up on the EU-African Union Summit (which took place in February 2022), and the EU response to the crisis in Ukraine and Afghanistan.

·       The EU Extraordinary Justice and Home Affairs Council meets to discuss all migratory routes and issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick gives the keynote speech at the European Society for Banking and Financial Law Italy annual conference in Milan, Italy.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos attends a presentation of the new book “"Política económica de la Segunda República. España en la Gran Depresión internacional" by Luis Peral Guerra in Madrid, Spain.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (December), GDP Growth (Q3)

·       UK CBI Distributive Trades (November)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3)

·       France Consumer Confidence (November), Unemployment Benefit Claims (October)

·       Hungary Unemployment Figures (October)

·       Spain PPIs (October)

·       Italy Business Confidence (November)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Financial Stability Report

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (October)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (November)

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

·       Eswatini Interest Rate Decision

Saturday, November 26, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Early voting begins in Georgia for the Senate run-off election being held on December 5th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan is set to hold elections for local positions ranging from mayors to village chiefs.  The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) Party – which seeks better relations with Beijing – appears to be running strong in pre-election polls.  Of particular note, the great-grandson of former Taiwan leader Ching Kai-shek and who is a member of the KMT, appears poised to win the Mayoral election in Taipei. 

·       Japan’s Imperial Palace grounds in Tokyo will open to the public for the first time in three years to view the autumn foliage season.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK’s national rail union (Aslef) goes on strike over wages.  The strike will impact 12 companies.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Sunday, November 27, 2022:

Global

·       The First Day of Advent in the Gregorian Christian Calendar marking the start of the western church’s countdown to Christmas.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Industrial Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing of significance to report.

The Global Week Ahead: November 6-13, 2022

Global diplomatic summitry – all being held in Southeast Asia – will dominate the geopolitical calendar this week.  It starts this weekend with the ASEAN Summit in Phenom Penh, Cambodia, and then moves to Bali, Indonesia, for the G20 Leaders’ Summit and then, later in the week, to Bangkok, Thailand, for the APEC Summit. 

At the G20, President Biden will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in a closely watched set of sideline meetings aimed at “putting a floor” under US-China relations. Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided not to attend either the ASEAN Summit or the G20 Summit in person but may attend via video link.  Later this week, the APEC Summit will be held in Bangkok, Thailand, where regional leaders and a number of world leaders will gather again.  President Biden will not participate in APEC and is sending Vice President Kamala Harris in his stead.

On the global economic front, the announcement this past week out of Beijing of a shift in the Zero COVID policy has buoyed global markets. This came just as markets celebrated a weaker US CPI print suggesting peak inflation may have been reached.  This coming week, markets will keenly look at two key US economic reports for further hope of brighter economic days ahead: retail sales and housing figures.

Here is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, November 13, 2022 

Global

·       The COP27 Conference continues until November 18 in Sharm El-Sheik, Egypt.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       President Biden arrives in Bali, Indonesia, to attend the G20 Summit meeting in Indonesia following his attendance at the ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. The G20 runs through November 16. 

·       The US Congress returns for the Lame Duck session following last week’s midterm elections. The passage of the defense appropriations bill and raising the debt ceiling are the paramount issues for them to finish before adjourning in mid-December.  House and Senate Republicans are scheduled to hold leadership elections this week despite a number of races in both chambers uncalled and rising demand from with the respective caucus’ to put off the elections.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller participates in a discussion at the Australasia Conference in Sydney, Australia.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       The 17th Asia-Pacific Conference on German Business will be held (through November 14). German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz is scheduled to give a keynote speech on the 14th before going to Bali for the G20 Heads of States and Government Summit.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       The UK observers Remembrance Day with King Charles III laying a wreath at the Cenotaph in London.

·       The second-round presidential ballot in Slovenia.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will seek to form a new government following recent elections.

·       The Abu Dhabi Finance Week will take place through November 18.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       The Nigeria Economic Summit will begin in Abuja.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 14, 2022:

Global

·       The 17th G20 Heads of State and Government Summit formally begins in Bali, Indonesia, through November 16.  President Biden is scheduled to meet on the sidelines with Chinese President Xi Jinping and is expected to talk about a host of issues ranging from trade to Taiwan to human rights to Ukraine. The members of the G20 include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union. Spain is also invited as a permanent guest. Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced he will not attend in person but may dial in via video.  

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss peacekeeping operations and Police Commissioners.  Then they will discussion the situation in the Central African Republic.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       The Helsinki Commission is expected to release a report in Washington, DC detailing Russia’s genocide in Ukraine.  The Commission – more formally known as the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe and is composed of members of the US Senate, House of Representatives, and the Executive Branch – will hold a press conference and panel discussion on their findings. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Lael Brainard speaks at the Bloomberg Economic Outlook event in Washington, DC.

·       Canada Senior Loan Officer Survey

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, IBC-BR Economic Activity (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       India WPI Food (October), WPI Manufacturing (October), WPI Fuel (October), WPI Inflation (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Ministers of Foreign Affairs) meets today to discuss the Ukraine war, the situation in the Great Lakes, and the situation in the Western Balkans.

·       The UK’s BBC marks the 100th anniversary of its first radio broadcast.

·       King Charles III celebrates his 74th birthday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       EBC Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a panel discussion at the opening conference (12:00 p.m. CET) of The 25th Euro Finance Week Conference in Frankfurt.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the closing keynote speech (5:15 p.m. CET) at the 25th Euro Finance Week opening conference in Frankfurt, Germany. 

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (September)

·       Poland Industrial Production ((September), Current Account (September)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (October)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Turkey Auto Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       The Nigerian Economic Summit starts in Abuja, Nigeria. The Summit will focus on national and regional economic development. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, November 15, 2022:

Global

·       The International Energy Agency releases the November Oil Market Report

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Former US President Donald Trump is expected to announce his intention to run again for president in 2024. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, and Acting Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chair Martin Gruenberg testify before the US Senate Banking Committee at a hearing entitled “Oversight of Financial Regulators: A Strong Banking and Credit Union System for Main Street.”

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook speaks at the Diversity and Inclusion in Economics, Finance, and Central Banking Conference hosted by the Bank of Canada (a virtual event).

·       US PPIs (October), New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (November), Redbook (November)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (September), New Motor Vehicles Sales (September), Wholesale Sales (October)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (October)

·       Peru GDP (Q3), Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Panama Balance of Trade (September)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       China Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October), Unemployment Rate (October), Peoples’ Bank of China 1-Year MLF announcement

·       India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

·       South Korea Export Prices (October), Import Prices (October)

·       Japan GDP Figures (Q3), Industrial Production (September), Capacity Utilization (September)

·       Australia Reserve Bank Meeting Minutes

·       Thailand GDP (Q3)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (October), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense Ministers) meets today to discuss the Ukraine war, the situation in the Great Lakes, and the situation in the Western Balkans.

·       UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly answers questions at a parliamentary committee on the UK’s future relationship with the EU.

·       19th EU-Kyrgyzstan Cooperation Council meets in Brussels. The Council will review key aspects of bilateral relations, including the follow-up to the initialing of the EU-Kyrgyz Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA).

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at the 25th Euro Finance Week Dinner hosted by the Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany. 

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (October), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (November), ZEW Current Conditions (November)

·       France Inflation Rate (October)

·       UK Unemployment Rate (September), Claimant Count Change (October), Average Earnings excl. Bonus (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (October)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (October), GDP (Q3)

·       Eurozone Balance of Trade (September), Employment Change (Q3), GDP Growth Rate (Q3), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (October), Wholesale Prices (October)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (October)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (October), Inflation Rate (October)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (October)

·       Bahrain Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       The African Union hosts a conference on digital economy development in Harare, Zimbabwe.

·       Nigeria’s presidential election candidates’ debate.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (October), Inflation Rate (October)

·       Kenya Balance of Trade (July/August/September)

·       Botswana Inflation Data (October)

·       Rwanda Interest Rate Decision 

·       Namibia Inflation Rate Decision

Wednesday, November 16, 2022:

Global

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meet in Vienna, Austria through November 18.  They are expected to talk about Iran’s efforts to build a nuclear weapon and their lack of responsiveness to effort to negotiation. They could pass a resolution criticizing Tehran, which would be significant. They will also discuss North Korea’s nuclear weapon program, the situation in Ukraine, and other significant issues. 

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       NASA hopes to launch the Artemis I test flight mission around the moon from Kennedy Space Center in Florida.  This is part of a larger NASA plan to build a permanent moon base to support a mission to Mars.

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is hosting the 2022 US Treasury Market Conference.  Speakers include NY Fed President John Williams, Undersecretary of Treasury for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang, and a number of other experts discussing the state of the Treasury market and possible reforms.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on the topic “Oversight of Prudential Regulators: Ensuring the Safety, Soundness, Diversity, and Accountability of Depository Institutions.”

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech at the 59th Annual Economic Forecast Luncheon, Phoenix, Ariz.

·       US Retail Sales (October), Export Prices (October), Import Prices (October), Manufacturing Production (October), Industrial Production (October), Capacity Utilization (October), Business Inventories (September), Retail Inventories (September), NAHB Housing Market Index (November), MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate/Index/Purchases Index (November)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (October), Housing Starts (October), CPI (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       Russia will host multilateral talks on Afghanistan in Moscow.  The meeting will include senior officials from China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       China House Price Index (October), Foreign Direct Investment (October)

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (October)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (September), Tertiary Industry Index (September)

·       Australia Wage Price Index (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the European School in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in the ABI’s Executive Committee meeting in Rome, Italy. 

·       ECB Board Member Edouard Fernández-Bollo gives remarks at VIII Jornado de Pensiones organized by Cino Días and Ibercaja in Madrid, Spain.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Baily testifies before the Treasury Select Committee hearing on the November Monetary Policy Report.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill gives a Speech at the Bristol Festival of Economics ‘What next for central banks’”.  

·       UK Inflation Rate (October), PPIs (October), Labor Productivity (Q3), Retail Price Index (October)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (October), CPIs (October)

·       Russia GDP (Q3)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel GDP Growth (Q3)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       Kenya hosts Congo peace talks in Nairobi.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Retail Sales (September)

·       Ghana PPIs (October) 

Thursday, November 17, 2022: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       The 2022 Cato Institute Summit on Financial Regulation entitled “The Rise of ESG and the Future of Financial Regulation” in Washington DC. Several leading US regulators and industry leaders are expected to speak.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Philip Jefferson speeches on “Opportunity and Inclusive Growth” at the Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute 2022 Institute Research Conference in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at the Financial Literacy and Education Commission Public Meeting (virtual event)

·       US Housing Starts (October), Building Permits (October), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (November), Initial Jobless claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions/CAPEX Index/Employment/New Orders/Prices Paid Reports (November), Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index and Composite Index (November)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       India M3 Money Supply (October)

·       Japan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October)

·       Australia Unemployment Figures (October)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (October), Balance of Trade (October)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision, Lending Facility Rate (November), Deposit Facility Rate (November)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       British Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt is expected to announce his medium-term fiscal statement alongside new forecasts for the economy and public finances from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

·       NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly holds its annual session in Madrid, Spain.

·       British Princess Anne to visit the Falkland Islands. This will be the third visit by the Princess and will honor the war dead from the war with Argentina 40 years ago as well as the elevation of Stanley to city status.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       UK Fiscal Statement

·       Italy Balance of Trade (September)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (September)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (October)

·       Eurozone New Car Registrations (October), Inflation Rate (October), Construction Output (September), CPI (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Lebanon to hold its sixth attempt to elect a president after former President Michel Aoun’s term expired on October 31.  The political vacuum is leading to a greater risk of a return to civil war.

·       The 4th Milken Institute Middle East and Africa Summit are held in Abu Dhabi. The theme of the Summit is “Celebrating the Power of Connection” and will focus heavily on digital issues.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Turkey FX Reserves (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Mozambique GDP (Q3) 

Friday, November 18, 2022: 

Global 

·       The COP27 Summit concludes in Egypt.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Existing House Sales (October), CB Leading Index (October)

·       Canada Raw Material Prices (October), Retail Sales (September), New Housing Price Index (October), PPIs (October)

·       Peru Current Account (Q3)

·       Chile GDP (Q3), Current Account (Q3)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders’ Summit will be held in Bangkok, Thailand, and go through November 19.  There are 21 member countries attending, and the theme of the conference is “Open. Connect. Balance.” Neither President Biden nor Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend, but Vice President Kamala Harris will participate in place of President Biden.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       India Deposit Growth (Week of November 4), FX Reserves (November), Bank Loan Growth (Week of November 4)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (October)

·       Thailand Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October), New Car Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       The EU General Council meets to prepare for the European Council meeting on 15-16 December 16, 2022.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the 32nd Frankfurt European Banking Congress in Frankfurt, Germany. 

·       France Unemployment Rate (Q3)

·       UK Retail Sales (October)

·       Switzerland Industrial Production (Q3)

·       Italy Construction Output (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Uzbekistan to host the EU-Central Asia Connectivity Conference in Samarkand.

·       The International Institute for Strategic Studies holds its annual IISS Manama Dialogue 2022 in Bahrain. EU President Ursula von der Leyen is scheduled to speak. The Dialogue will feature a large number of regional and US, and EU officials.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate (Q3)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Building Permits (September), S&P Rating Assessment released.

Saturday, November 19, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Canada CPIs (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       Malaysia holds legislative elections to elect a new Prime Minister. This will be the fourth Prime Minister in the last two years.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

·       Monaco celebrates National Day.

·       The 2021 Rugby League World Cup (men’s and women’s) finals are held in Manchester, UK.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Sunday, November 20, 2022:

Global

·       The World Cup begins in Qatar and runs through December 18. 

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       US President Biden celebrates his 80th birthday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

·       Kazakhstan holds snap presidential elections (two years earlier than expected).

·       Nepal holds national and provincial elections.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

London’s “Big Ben” will ring its bells for the first since 2017. 

·       It will ring once at 11 a.m. to mark a two-minute moment of silence for those lost in World War I&II.  

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

·       Equatorial Guinea holds presidential, legislative, and local elections. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead: November 6-13, 2022

We are down to the last 72 hours before the  US mid-term elections on Tuesday.  Polls suggest Republicans will win control of the House of Representatives, while which party will win control of the Senate is too close to call (our view is Republicans will win control of the Senate, too – perhaps by a three-seat majority). 

Internationally, COP27 begins in Egypt, and leaders from around the world will converge in Sharm El-Sheikh to debate how to further push forward on global climate protocols.  But, more controversially, we expect the debate to begin on paying compensation and reparations for climate damage to certain countries.  Also, this week, the ASEAN Leaders Summit begins in Cambodia and will serve as a prelude for the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Bali the following week.  And the G20 is shaping up to be quite a meeting as Russian President Putin, Chinese President Xi, US President Biden and even Ukraine President Zelensky (virtually)  are expected to attend

Markets this week will be at highly focused on consumer price index and producer price index updates from the US, China, Germany, and Japan.  They will also be looking at the UK’s GDP figures on Friday to get a clearer picture of how bad the recession might be there.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, November 6, 2022:

Global

·       The United Nation’s 2022 Climate Change (COP27) Conference begins in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt.  The Conference, which runs through November 18th, will be seeking to build off the Glasgow, Scotland conference held in 2021 and seek to accelerate global climate action on emissions reduction and enhance flows of the appropriate financing to reach those goals. A large number of world leaders are expected to attend.  Among the other issues, they will discuss will be the potentially politically controversial issue of compensation and reparations for climate damage.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (October), Tourist Arrivals (October), Consumer Confidence (October)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 7, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria's chemical weapons). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a Troop Contributing countries meeting on the UN Peacekeeping Mission in the Central African Republic and then on the meeting of Troop Contributing Countries serving in South Sudan.

·       The UN is hosting in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, the 7th International Conference on Big Data and Data Science for Official Statistics.  An estimated  2,000 data scientists and statisticians from more than 70 counties will compete in the 2022 UN Big Data Hackathon (November 8-11) as part of the Conference. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador begins taking its national census.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Central Bank Market Readout

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (October), Auto Production (October), Auto Exports (October)

·       Chile Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar travels to Moscow for bilateral meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and other senior Russian officials.  They are expected to discuss bilateral trade issues.  In particular, India is concerned about grain and sunflower oil exports from Ukraine and Russia, which have been put at risk by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October), FX Reserves (October)

·       Japan Household Spending (September), Average Cash Earnings (October), Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, FX Reserves (October),

·       Indonesia GDP (Q3), FX Reserves (October), Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (October), Ai Group Services Index (October)

·       South Korea Current Account (September)

·       Hong Kong FX Reserves (October)

·       Singapore FX Reserves (October)

·       Philippines FX Reserves (October), Unemployment Rate (September), Industrial Production (September)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets to discuss economic developments and the outlook for the euro area.  They will also discuss measures to mitigate the impact of high energy prices as well as the draft EU budgetary plans.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded video message at a joint European Commission/ECB Conference entitled “Towards a legislative framework enabling a digital Europe for citizens and businesses”

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in a panel discussion at a joint European Commission/ECB Conference entitled “Towards a legislative framework enabling a digital Europe for citizens and businesses”

·       Germany Industrial Production (September), S&P Global Construction PMI (October)

·       UK Halifax House Price Index (October), BRC Retail Sales Monitor (October), BBA Mortgage Rate (October)

·       France FX Reserves (October), S&P Global Construction PMI (October)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMI (October)

·       Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (October)

·       Switzerland Unemployment (October), FX Reserves (October)

·       Ukraine FX Reserves (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (October)

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (September), Composite Economic Index (September)

·       Iran Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa FX Reserves (October)

·       Mauritius FX Reserves (October) 

Tuesday, November 8, 2022:

Global

·       A total Lunar Eclipse to occur.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US mid-term elections are held today.  All US House of Representatives seats and 33 US Senate seats are up for election, plus numerous governors’ seats and state legislative seats.  As of Sunday evening, more than 40 million Americans have already voted, which is a new record for early voting. In the state of Georgia, 2.3 million have already voted (out of a population of 10.8 million),  a new state record.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US NFIB Business Optimism Index (October), Redbook (November), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (November)

·       Brazil Car Production (October), New Car Registrations (October)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (September)

·       Chile Inflation Figures (October), Imports (October)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 40th and 41st ASEAN Summit is held in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

·       The 14th installment of the Airshow China takes place in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province, China, through November 13th. The event will include both domestic and foreign manufacturers, including Airbus and GE.  China is expected to show off its heavy military transport aircraft, the Y-20, and anti-drone systems.

·       The 24th Nikkei Global Management Forum takes place in Tokyo through Wednesday.  Leading global CEOs are scheduled to speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (October), PPIs (October),

·       Japan Economic Leading Index (September), Reuters Tankan Index (November), Current Account (September), Bank Lending (October)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Taiwan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October), Inflation Rate (October)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (November), NAB Consumer Confidence Change (November), Building Permits (September), Private House Approvals (September)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets to discuss Basel II regulation, taxation of trucks, and the economic and financial impact of the war in Ukraine.

·       Germany’s largest union, IG Metal Kueste, expected to continue warning strikes in Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg in advance of negotiations over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Member Luis de Guindos participates in the ECOFNI meetings in Brussels.

·       ECB Member Andrea Enria gives a speech at the Bundesbank Symposium “Banking Supervision in Dialogue” in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September), Current Account (September), Retail Sales (September)

·       Italy Retail Sales (September)

·       Eurozone Retail Sales (September)

·       Russia Central Bank Monetary Policy Report, Vehicle Sales (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey’s Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan is expected to meet with Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson in Ankara, Turkey. They will discuss Sweden’s accession to NATO and Turkey’s accusation that Sweden is harboring Kurdish terrorists.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Budget Balance (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ghana’s Parliament is expected to begin debating a motion to remove Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta.  Ghana is facing its worst economic crisis in decades, with inflation near 38 percent and the currency falling 20 percent against the dollar.  Half of the government’s revenues now go to paying interest payments the country is seeing a deal with the IMF to help stabilize the economy.  Protests have also broken out in the capital, Accra, as citizen demand President Nana Akufo-Addo also step down.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Tanzania Inflation (October)

·       Mauritius Inflation (October)

·       Seychelles Inflation (October) 

Wednesday, November 9, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the UN peacekeeping mission in Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US MBA 30-year Mortgage Rate (November), MBA Mortgage Market Index (November), Wholesale Inventories (September), WASDE Report

·       Brazil Retail Sales (September)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (October)

·       Australia Inflation Expectations (November)

·       Philippines GDP Growth (Q3)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission is expected to publish proposals for changing EU fiscal rules to make them more realistic given the high public debt after COVID.

·       Brussels International Airport is expected to be hit by a labor strike that may shut the airport.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Non-Monetary Policy Meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       ECB Member Frank Elderson participates in an online panel organized by the Euro-Mediterranean Economists Association at the COP17 Conference.

·       ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (September)

·       UK RICS House Price Balance (October)

·       Russia FX Reserves (October), Inflation Rate (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (October)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (October)

Thursday, November 10, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a debate on “Threats to international peace and security: Counter-terrorism in Africa”

·       The Chair of the UN Security Council will rotate to Ghanaian President Nana Afufo-Addo taking the helm.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Chamber of Commerce hosts the Transatlantic Business Works Summit in Washington, DC.  The Summit brings together a number of EU leaders, including Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte and senior officials from the Biden Administration as well a large number of US and EU-based CEOs.

·       The Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City will host their 7th joint energy conference, “Energy and the Economy: the New Energy Landscape,” in Houston, Texas. NASA. And the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) launch the Joint Polar Satellite System-2 for extreme weather monitoring.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Inflation Rate (October), Initial Jobless Claims (November)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (October)

·       Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) begins the 38th and 39th Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.  Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen will pass the chairmanship to Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.   US President Bide, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will attend.  Also, both Spain and Ukraine will sign the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) in Southeast Asia, which governs interstate relations in the region. 

·       Japan and US military forces to start “Keen Sword” exercises in Japan.  Australia, Canada, and the UK will also participate in the naval and air force exercises.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will discuss central bank digital currencies at a Queensland University of Technology event in Brisbane, Australia.

·       China Vehicle Sales (October), New Yuan Loans (October), Outstanding Loan Growth (October), Total Social Financing (October), M2 Money Supply (October)

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the BusinessEurope CEOs Dialogue 2022 in Brussels.

·       London’s Underground and Overground employees are expected to hold a one-day strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Member Andreas Enria participates in a fireside chat organized by De Nederlandsche Bank.

·       ECB Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a roundtable discussion at the Bank of Slovenia

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (October)

·       Italy Industrial Production (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (September)

·       Turkey Unemployment Figures (September), FX Reserves (November)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Mining Production (September), Gold Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September)

·       Rwanda Inflation Rate (October)

Friday, November 11, 2022:

Global

·       The UN is sponsoring the Global conference on Macroeconomic Statistics for the Future, which will be organized by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and Eurostat.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US President Biden will attend the COP27 Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt.

·       The US observes Veterans Day, a federal holiday.

·       US Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen will travel to New Delhi, India, to participate in the U.S.-India Economic and Financial Partnership.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (November), Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (November), Michigan Current Conditions (November), Michigan Consumer Expectations (November)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (September)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (November)

·       Chile Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China holds Singles’ Day, the largest annual shopping festival in the country. However, Zero COVID restrictions are expected to significantly impact the event.

·       Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s protest march is scheduled to arrive in Islamabad.  However, since Khan was shot earlier this week at a rally, this event is likely to be delayed.

·       Australia observes Remembrance Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India FX Reserves (November), Manufacturing Production (September), Industrial Production (September)

·       Hong Kong GDP (Q3)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets to reach an agreement on the 2023 EU budget with the EU Parliament. 

·       The Paris Peace Forum, with this year’s theme “Riding Out the Multicrisis,” is held through November 12th.

·       Armistice Day in Europe commemorating the end of World War I.

·       Poland celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Member Fabio Panetta gives a lunch talk at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies.

·       ECB Member Philip Lane participates in a policy panel at the 23rd Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       Germany Inflation Rate (October), CPI (October)

·       UK GDP (Q3), Goods Trade Balance Figures (September), Balance of Trade (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Industrial Production (September), Construction Output (September), Construction Orders (Q3), Business Investment (Q3), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Industrial Production (September), Current Account (September), Retail Sales (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, November 12, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden attends the US-ASEAN Summit and the 17th East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Both run through November 13th.

·       US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen will attend the G20 Joint Finance and Health Ministers’ Meeting in Bali, Indonesia.  She will also accompany President Biden at the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Bali on November 15/16.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits Vietnam and Singapore to discuss trade through November 14th.

·       The UK’s Royal Mail staff continue their walkout over pay and terms.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Bahrain Council on Representatives (parliament) election.  All 40 members are up for election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 13, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden attends the G20 Summit meeting in Indonesia through November 16th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK observers Remembrance Day with King Charles III laying a wreath at the Cenotaph in London.

·       Second round presidential ballot in Slovenia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead: October 30 - November 6, 2022:

A week ago, the Chinese Communist Party Congress ended, and, not liking what they heard, the markets reacted quite negatively. This coming week, markets should pay attention to three events in China.  First, we will be watching the Global Financial Leaders Summit in Hong Kong on Monday, where the CEOs from a number of leading Wall Street firms will speak. The Hong Kong government is hosting the event to showcase the city as still being a leading financial center in Asia.  Second, on Thursday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz will lead a delegation of leading German CEOs for a one-day set of meetings to discuss greater investment opportunities in China.  And third, on Saturday, Shanghai will host the China International Import Expo, where more than 3,000 companies from over 100 nations will gather to market new products and explore ways of expanding further into the Chinese market.  We will be listening closely for any messaging around these three events coming from Beijing that might suggest a softer line toward foreign investment and engagement in the global markets.

Also this week, the UN's COP27 Conference begins in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, on Sunday, where we are likely to see one of the more controversial policy proposals around climate change brought up for debate: The payment of compensation and reparations for climate damage. 

Meanwhile, markets will closely watch the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting. While most observers expect a 75-basis point hike in rates, they are looking for clues as to whether the Fed is on course for a similar hike in December or if they will scale back to 50- basis points. The Bank of England also meets to decide on a likely rate increase this week.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, October 30, 2022:

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Brazil holds its presidential runoff election. Polls have recently tightened considerably between former President Lula da Silver (“Lula”) and incumbent Jair Bolsonaro suggesting a statistical tie. Other polls suggest Lula is up by five points but down from the 15 point lead he had several months ago. In the first round, Luka won 48.4 percent of the vote and Bolsonaro won 43.2 percent.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Vietnam’s Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong will visit Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi (through November 2nd). Trong will be the first foreign leader to visit Xi in his third term begins. China is Vietnam’s largest trading partner and key source of raw materials. They are also expected to discussion ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea and the future of Taiwan.

• Japan’s Fukushima gubernatorial election to be held.

• Japan’s official start of campaigning for the Kumamoto mayoral election.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Japan Retail Sales (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (October), Retail Sales (September), Private Sector Credit (September)

• South Korea Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Construction Output (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• ECB Member Philip Lane gives a speech at Danmark’s Nationalbank Conference in Copenhagen.

• Informal meeting of EU Trade Ministers (through October 31st).

• European Daylight Savings Time ends.

• Russia observes its annual day of remembrance for the victims of Stalin’s purges.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Unemployment Rate (September)

• Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (September) M3 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 31, 2022:

Global

• The International Atomic Energy Agency hosts a Symposium on International Safeguards in Vienna, Austria.

• The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will release its 2022 World Oil Outlook.

• The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Threats to International Peace and Security.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• The US and EU are set to meet sometime this week – date still to be announced – to try and settle a growing trade dispute over domestic manufacturing requirements for electric vehicle batteries. Both the US and EU have established task forces to work on the matter. France and Germany have threatened trade retaliation measures against the US subsidies which give a $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles equipped with batteries manufactured in North America and use minerals mined or recycled in the region.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US Chicago PMI (October), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (October)

• Mexico GDP (Q3)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

• Colombia Unemployment Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• South Korea and the United States will begin five days of combined air drills called “Vigilant Storm” in South Korea.

• Hong Kong hosts the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit. Leading US financial CEOs will attend the three-day event and give speeches. Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee will give welcoming remarks at the conference which is aimed at shoring up Hong Kong’s standing as a leading financial center in Asia.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• China NBS Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing/General PMIs (October)

• India Government Budget Value (September), Infrastructure Output (October)

• Japan Consumer Confidence (October), Housing Starts (September), Construction Orders (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September), Retail Sales (September), Private Sector Credit (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

• South Korea Industrial Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Hong Kong GDP (Q3)

• Singapore Business Confidence (Q3)

• Thailand Current Account (September)

• Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• Russian President Putin will host Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for trilateral talks in Sochi, Russia. Putin – following efforts by the EU – is seeking to broker a peace deal between the two nations.

• The UK’s National Education Unions hold a ballot over whether to go on strike for better wages.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Germany Retail Sales (September), Import Prices (September)

• UK BOE Consumer Credit (September), Mortgage Lending (September), National Housing Prices (October)

• Switzerland Retail Sales (September)

• Poland Inflation Rate (October)

• Spain Retails Sales (October), Current Account (August)

• Italy GDP (Q3)

• Eurozone GDP (Q3), Inflation Rate (October), CPI (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company hosts the Adipec Conference in Abu Dhabi where OPEC representatives and oil executives will be in attendance. The conference runs through November 3rd.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Africa Private Sector Credit (September), M3 Money Supply (September), Balance of Trade (September)

• Kenya Inflation Figures (October)

• Uganda Inflation Figures (October)

Tuesday, November 1, 2022:

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee begins two days of meetings to discuss the economy and interest rate increases (a 75-basis point increase is expected), Redbook (October), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October), ISM Manufacturing PMI (October), JOLTS Job Figures (September), Construction Spending (September), Dallas Fed Services Index (October), Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (October), LMI Logistics Managers Index Current (October)

• Peru Inflation Rate (October)

• Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes, Industrial Production (September), China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (October), Balance of Trade (October)

• Colombia Monetary Policy Minutes, Exports (September), Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Mexico Business Confidence (October), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Argentina Tax Revenue (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• China’s space agency is scheduled to launch the last of three modules that comprise the Tiangong Space Station.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (October)

• India S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October)

• Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (October)

• South Korea Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(October)

• Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October), Inflation Rate (October)

• Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Hong Kong Retail Sales (September)

• Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Australia Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision, Commodity Prices (October)

• Pakistan Inflation Rate (October), Wholesale Prices (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will visit Japan (through November 3rd). After visiting Japan, Steinmeier will travel to South Korea for meetings with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and other senior officials.

• Denmark to hold early general elections.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Switzerland Consumer Confidence (Q4) procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Russia S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), M2 Money Supply (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Israel holds general elections, its fifth parliamentary elections in less than four years.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Industrial Production (August)

• Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Commerce Manufacturing PMI (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• The Arab League holds a summit in Algiers. UN Secretary General António Guterres will give opening remarks. But a number of regional leaders – including Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the Presidents of the UAE and Lebanon, the Emir of Kuwait, and the King of Bahrain, and the Sultan of Oman, are not planning on attending which will significantly impact the impact of the summit.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (October), total New Vehicle Sales (October)

• Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (October)

Wednesday, November 2, 2022:

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference, MBA Mortgage Reports (October), ADP Employment Change (October)

• Chile IMACEC Economy Activity (September)

• Mexico FX Reserves (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to visit China for meetings with Chinese President Xi. Sharif will express Pakistan’s gratitude for China’s $88 million in relief aid following the recent massive flooding in the country. He is also expected to ask for debt relief on $6.3 billion of debt the country owes China as part of its involvement in China’s Belt & Road Initiative.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• China Caixin Services and Composite PMIs (October)

• Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• India M3 Money Supply (October)

• Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (October)

• South Korea Inflation (October), CPI (October), FX Reserves (October)

• Australia Ai Group Manufacturing Index (October), Building Permits (September), Reserve Bank Chart Pack, S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (October), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (September)

• Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (October), Interest Rate Decision

• Singapore S&P Global PMI (October)

• Thailand Business Confidence (October)

• Pakistan Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Germany Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (September), Unemployment Rate (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

• France Budget Balance (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

• Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

• UK Nationwide Housing Prices (October)

• Russia's Unemployment Rate (September), Real Wage Growth (August), Business Confidence (October), Retail Sales (September), GDP (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Saudi Arabia Interest Rate Decision

• Kuwait Inflation Rate (September), Interest Rate Decision

• Israel Manufacturing PMI (September), Composite Economic Index (September)

• Qatar Balance of Trade (September)

• Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)

• Iran Inflation Rate (September)

• Iran Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan to visit China through November 4th. She will meet with President Xi and other senior Chinese officials and is expected to sign bilateral agricultural and infrastructure investment deals with China.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, November 3, 2022:

Global

• G-7 Foreign Ministers meet in Munster, Germany to discuss Ukraine and China (through November 4th).

• Pope Francis travels to Bahrain to participate in the Bahrain Forum for Dialogue (through November 6th)

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (September), Unit Labor Costs (Q3), Nonfarm Productivity (Q3), Initial Jobless Claims (October), S&P Global Composite/Services/Non-Manufacturing PMIs (October), Factory Orders (September), ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices/New Orders/Employment/Business Activity Reports (October), Total Vehicle Sales (October)

• Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September), Building Permits (September)

• Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Japan celebrates Culture Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• India S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs (October)

• Japan Jibun Bank Services and Composite PMIs (October)

• Australia RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, Ai Group Construction Index (October)

• Indonesia GD Growth Rate (Q3), FX Reserves (October)

• Thailand Consumer Confidence (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to visit China for quick set of meetings with President Xi. Scholz will be accompanied by a German business delegation seeking new deals with China. Among those in the delegation are the CEOs of BASF, Bayer, Merck, BMW, BioNTech, Deutsche Bank, and Siemens. The meetings are only for one day due to strict COVID restrictions in China.

• EU President von der Leyen will participate in the Berlin Process Summit for the Western Balkans. The summit is seeking to help facilitate negotiations on a Common Regional Market as well as address issues such as the green agenda, climate, energy, and energy security for the region. Later that day, von der Leyden will return to Brussels to meet the newly elected Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni.

• UK’s Royal Mail staff begin a strike over better wages.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Bank of England interest rate decision and monetary policy report, S&P/CIPS UK Services and Composite PMIs (October)

• ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in an introductory panel at Latvijas Banka Economic Conference in Riga, Latvia.

• ECB Member Fabio Panetta gives the keynote speech at the ECB Money Market Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

• ECB Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel discussion at Central Bank of Ireland’s Financial Services Conference in Dublin, Ireland.

• Eurozone Unemployment Rate (September)

• Spain Unemployment Change (October)

• Italy Unemployment Rate (September)

• Russia S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs (October)

• Switzerland Inflation Rate (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• The UAE celebrates its 10th Flag Day (which indicates a growing shift to a national framework and away from a religious/tribal identity).

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Egypt S&P Global PMI (October)

• Saudi Arabia S&P Global PMI (October)

• Turkey Inflation Rate (October), CPI (October), PPIs (October), FX Reserves (October)

• Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (October)

• Qatar Financial Centre PMI (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Africa S&P Global PMI (October), Electricity Consumption/Production Figures (September)

• Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (October)

• Uganda PMIs (October)

• Kenya PMIs (October)

• Zambia PMIs (October)

• Ghana PMIs (October)

Friday, November 4, 2022:

Global 

• UN’s Food and Agriculture Organizations Food Price Index (October) is published which will give us a clear sense of food inflation globally and risks to food security going forward.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US Unemployment Figures (October)

• Canada Unemployment Figures (October), Ivey PMIs (October)

• Peru Balance of Trade (September)

• Brazil S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (October)

• Colombia PPIs (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• India FX Reserves (October), Bank Loan Growth (October), Deposit Growth (October)

• Taiwan Inflation Rate (October), Wholesale Prices (October), FX Reserves (October)

• Singapore Retail Sales (September)

• Thailand Inflation Rate (October), CPI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• ECB President Christine Lagarde gives the opening lecture on monetary policy in the Euro Area hosted by the Eesti Pank in Tallinn, Estonia.

• ECB Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Energy Prospectives series hosted by Naturgy Foundation and IESE Business School in Madrid, Spain.

• ECB Member Andrea Enria gives remarks at the Cumberland Lodge Financial Services Summit in Windsor, UK.

• Eurozone S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (October), PPIs (September)

• Germany Factory Orders (September), S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (October), New Car Registrations (October)

• UK S&P Global/CIPS Services and Composite PMIs (October), New Car Sales (October)

• France Industrial Production (September), Private Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3), S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (October)

• Spain Industrial Production (September), S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (October), Consumer Confidence (October)

• Italy S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (October)

• Switzerland FX Reserves (October)

• Poland

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to visit Turkey for meetings with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss Sweden’s and Finland’s joining the alliance. Erdogan is threatening again to hold up the membership of both countries due to his belief both countries are “providing shelter to outlawed Kurdish militants” Turkey considers to be terrorists.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, November 5, 2022:

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Colombia Inflation Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• The China International Import Expo begins in Shanghai. The six-day event is expected to draw 3,000 foreign companies from over 100 countries who are seeking to broaden their sales into China.

• Malaysia’s Election Commission holds nominations for 222 parliamentary constituencies in advance of the November 19th federal elections. 14 days of official campaigning commences tomorrow (November 6th)

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• UK’s National Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers Union (RMT) go a day-long strike for a second time for better wages. They are expected to strike again on November 7th.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 6, 2022:

Global

• The United Nation’s 2022 Climate Change (COP27) Conference begins in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. The Conference will be seeking to build off the Glasgow, Scotland conference held in 2021 and seek to accelerate global climate action on emissions reduction and enhance flows of appropriate financing to reach those goals. They are also expected to touch on the potentially politically controversial issue of compensation and reparations for climate damage.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Business Confidence (October), Tourist Arrivals (October), Consumer Confidence (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead: October 23 - 30, 2022

Perhaps the most significant event to watch this week is not a traditional calendar item:  Will Ukrainian forces capture Kherson from Russian invaders, and what will this mean for the future of the war in Ukraine?  We will be watching what happens there closely.  Also this week, we will be watching the “Davos in the Desert” – Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative, which begins Tuesday and will draw some of the world’s most prominent business leaders and political leaders.  The meeting comes amidst heightened tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia but will still likely draw many top US business leaders.  Finally, Brazil will hold its hotly contested presidential run-off election next Sunday. Polls suggest it will be a close outcome and, at this point, might be too close to call.

On the economic front this week, China is expected to release a host of key economic reports, but markets will be holding their breath to see if that happens after Beijing unexpectedly suspended the release of GDP data last week.  Meanwhile, markets will be watching US GDP and initial unemployment figures to better understand the risk of a recession. Markets are already watching the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan closely as they deliberate interest rate decisions.  We would also note that this week Russia’s central bank will decide whether to raise rates - an indicator of how impactful sanctions have or have not been on the country.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, October 23, 2022:

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• The National Congress of the Communist Party of China concludes.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Japan Jibun Bank’s Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, Composite PMI (all for September),

• Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

• Philippine Budget Balance (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• Italy’s new government led by Giorgia Meloni (who is expected to become Italy’s first female Prime Minister) is sworn into office.

• A delegation of German parliamentarians (the second in recent weeks) travels to Taiwan (through October 26th).

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Egypt holds the Egyptian Economic Conference looking at Egypt’s economic challenges and opportunities.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Monday, October 24, 2022:

Global

• Today is United Nations Day as well as World Development Information Day.

• The UN Security Council holds a briefing and consultations on the UN’s security mission in Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman travels to Japan for high-level talks with her Japanese and South Korean counterparts to discuss Russia and North Korea.

• The US Congress remains out of session until November 14th. There are 15 days until the mid-term elections November 8th.

• The US Securities industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) holds its annual meeting in New York. SEC Chair Gary Gensler, CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen are scheduled to speak.

• A criminal tax-fraud case against the Trump Organization begins in New York.

• Ontario holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September), S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October)

• Canada Manufacturing Sales (September)

• Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (October)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Current Account (August & September), FDI (September)

• Chile PPIs (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Japan’s Cultural Affairs Agency will hold an expert panel meeting on the Unification Church operations in Japan. The Church is now formally known as the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification. This goes to the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was killed by someone who was upset by the Unification Church and its relationship with the ruling Liberal Party.

• Sri Lanka celebrates Diwali, the festival of lights.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• China Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (September), GDP (Q3), Industry Capacity Utilization (Q3), Unemployment Rate (September), Retail Sales (September), Industrial Production (September), House Price Index (September)

• Japan Jibun Bank Services/Composite/Manufacturing PMIs (October)

• Australia S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October)

• Indonesia M2 Money Supply (September)

• Taiwan Retail Sales (September), Industrial Production (September), M2 Money Supply (September)

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• EU environmental ministers will seek to approve the EU’s general negotiating mandate for the upcoming UNZ Climate Change Conference and Biological Diversity Conference (COP27 and COP15, respectively).

• The European Union Military Committee’s Chiefs of Defense meeting (through the 25th)

• Russia’s Valdai Discussion Club, a think tank, holds its 19th Annual Meeting in Moscow. Entitled “A Post-Hegemonic World: Justice and Security for Everyone,” it will have more than 100 experts, politicians, economists, and diplomats from 41 countries speaking. Russian President Putin will address the meeting on Thursday.

·         EU President Delivers a speech at the Global Grand Challenges Annual Meeting 2022 hosted by the European Commission and the Global Grand Challenges

• The UK’s Unite the Union, which are made up of port operatives, maintenance engineers, and control room workers at Liverpool’s docks, begin a two week strike over pay.

• The UK’s CWU (communications workers) at BT Group and Openreach – including emergency 999 call handlers – go on strike over pay.

• The UK’s GMB union, which represents ambulance workers votes over whether to go on strike.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Germany S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October)

• France S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October)

• Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October)

• UK S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Inflation Expectation (September)

• Qatar Total Credit Growth (September), M2 Money Supply (September)

• Iran Inflation Rate (September)

• Kuwait Inflation Rate (September) 

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• South Africa will host peace talks between Ethiopia and rebel Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

• Zambia celebrates Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Tuesday, October 25, 2022: 

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet for a briefing and consultations on the Middle East, including Syria’s use of chemical weapons.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• In one of the most closely watched US Senate races, Pennsylvania Lt. Governor John Fetterman (D) will debate Republican candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz (R).

• Grenada celebrates Thanksgiving, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US Redbook (October), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (August), House Price Index (August), CB Consumer Confidence (October), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments, Richmond Fed Services Index (October),

• Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, FGV Consumer Confidence (October), IPCA Mid-Month CPI (October)

• Mexico Economic Activity (August)

• Argentina Retail Sales (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Taiwan hosts the 11th Global Assembly of the World Movement for Democracy. More than 70 countries will participate (through October 27th). The event will be kicked off with a conversation between Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu and Ukraine’s Parliamentary Foreign Policy Chair Oleksandr Merezhko.

• Kazakhstan marks Republic Day, celebrating their independence from the Soviet Union.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• China FDI ((September)

• Indonesia FDI (Q3)

• Thailand Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

• Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)

• Singapore CPI (September), Core Inflation Rate (September) 

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• The EU’s Transport, Transportation and Energy Council meets in Brussels to discuss the latest emergency package.

• President von der Leyen, together with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, co-hosts the International Expert Conference on the Recovery, Reconstruction and Modernization of Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Germany Ifo Business Climate (October), Ifo Current Conditions (October), Ifo Expectations (October)

• UK CBI Business Optimism Index (Q4), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (October)

• Poland Unemployment Rate (September)

• Spain PPIs (September) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Saudi Arabia hosts its annual Investment Conference in Riyadh. Known as the “Davos in the Desert,” The Future Investment Initiative will see many leading Wall Street CEOs and other global CEOs attend despite the heightened tensions between the US and the Kingdom. You can find the full agenda and list of speakers HERE.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (August)

• Turkey Business Confidence (October), Capacity Utilization (October)

• Hong Kong Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

• Australia Federal Budget presented. It is the first budget to be presented by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government.

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (August) 

Wednesday, October 26, 2022 

Global

• The International Atomic Energy Agency will meet in Washington, DC for the International Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Power in the 21st Century.

• The Financial Times holds its Moral Money Summit Americas in New York. UN Special Envoy on Climate Action Mark Carney will speak.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• The Washington, DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds “The Asia Architecture Conference 2022.” Numerous senior US and Asian officials and business leaders are expected to watch.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• USA MBA Mortgage Indexes (October), New Home Sales (September), Building Permits (September), Goods Trade Balance (September), Retail Inventories/Wholesale Inventories (September)

• Canada Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Report and press conference

• Colombia Business Confidence (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• The Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank holds a two-day annual meeting. The Beijing headquartered multilateral lender has a membership of 105 countries.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Japan Leading Economic Index (August), Coincident Index (August)

• Singapore Industrial Production (September)

• South Korea Business Confidence (October)

• Australia Inflation Rate (Q3), Monthly CPI Indicator (September), RBA CPIs (Q3) 

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• France Consumer Confidence (October), Employment Figures (September)

• Eurozone Loans to Households (September), Loans to Companies (September)

• Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (October)

• Russia Industrial Production (September) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Zimbabwe’s ruling party will begin a Congress to choose party leaders for the 2023 election.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Africa 2022 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement

Thursday, October 27, 2022:

Global

• The UN Security Council holds a vote on Colombia and the UN mission in the Western Sahara.

• The G-20 Health Ministerial meeting is held in Bali, Indonesia.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez will appear at a court hearing in New York for drug trafficking charges he is facing.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US GDP Growth Rate (Q3), Durable Goods Orders (September), Initial Jobless Claims (October), Real Consumer Spending (Q3), Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Indexes (October)

• Canada CFIB Business Barometer (October), Average Weekly Earnings (August)

• Brazil Unemployment Rate (September), Bank Lending Rate (September), Net Payrolls (September)

• Mexico Balance of Trade (September), Unemployment Rate (September)

• Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Argentina Consumer Confidence (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• China Industrial Profits (September), Consumer Confidence (October)

• South Korea GDP (Q3)

• Australia Export/Imports Prices (Q3)

• Taiwan Consumer Confidence (October)

• Vietnam FDI (October)

• Thailand Industrial Production (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• In the UK, the Royal British Legion launches its annual poppy appeal ahead of the remembrance of Armistice Day and Remembrance Day Sunday next month.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference with ECB President Christine Lagarde. The ECB is expected to raise rates 75 basis points.

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (November), Bavaria CPIs (October), Brandenburg CPIs (October)

• Italy Business Confidence (October), Consumer Confidence (October), Industrial Sales (August)

• UK CBI Distributive Trades (October)

• Spain Unemployment Rate (Q3)

• Russia Corporate Profits (August), Business Confidence (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

Lebanon and Israel will formally sign a historic maritime border demarcation deal, allowing both nations to drill for off-short natural gas.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Manufacturing PMIs (September)

• Turkey MPC Meeting Summary, Inflation Report, Economic Confidence Index (October), Balance of Trade (September), Tourism Revenues (Q3), FX Reserves (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Africa PPIs (September)

Friday, October 28, 2022:

Global 

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold votes on hold an open debate on issues in the Middle East. They will also hold votes on the UN peacekeeping missions in Somalia and Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• 60th Anniversary of the end of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• US Personal Income/Personal Spending (September), PCE Price Index (September), Michigan Consumer Expectations/Current Conditions/Inflation Expectations Reports (October)

• Canada GDP (August), Budget Balance (August)

• Chile Copper Production (September), Industrial Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Colombia Central Bank Interest Decision, Cement Productions (September)

• Mexico Fiscal Balance (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Japan is expected to Cabinet approval for a new economic stimulus spending plan.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Japan Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision & Quarterly Outlook Report and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko press conference, Unemployment Rate (September), CPIs (October)

• India FX Reserves (October)

• Australia PPIs (Q3)

• Taiwan GDP (Q3)

• Singapore URA Property Index (Q3), Unemployment Rate (Q3)

• Vietnam Retail Sales (October), Industrial Production (October), Inflation Rate (October0, Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• UK’s Conservative Party will elect a replacement for recently resigned Prime Minister Liz Truss.

• Deadline for the formation of a power-sharing executive in Northern Ireland. If an agreement cannot be reached, the UK’s Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris is expected to call an Assembly election.

• The Czech Republic celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Germany GDP ((Q3), Inflation Rate (October), North Rhine Westphalia CPI (October), Hesse CPI (October), Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (October), Saxony CPI (October)

• France GDP Growth (Q3), PPIs (September), Household Consumption (September), Inflation Rate (October)

• Spain GDP (Q3), Inflation Rate (October), Business Confidence (October)

• Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (October)

• Italy PPIs (September), Inflation Rate (October), CPIs (October)

• Poland Inflation Rate (October)

• UK Insolvency Figures (September)

• Eurozone’s Economic Sentiment/Industrial /Consumer Sentiment Reports (October), Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)

• ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters

• Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and press conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Qatar Balance of Trade (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nigeria FX Reserves (October)

• Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (October)

Saturday, October 29, 2022:

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• Slovakia holds municipal and regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 30, 2022:

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

• Brazil holds its presidential runoff election. Polls have recently tightened considerably between former President Lula da Silver (“Lula”) and incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, suggesting a statistical tie.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

• Japan’s Fukushima gubernatorial election to be held.

• Japan’s official start of campaigning for the Kumamoto mayoral election.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Japan Retail Sales (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

• Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (October), Retail Sales (September), Private Sector Credit (September)

• South Korea Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Construction Output (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

• Informal meeting of EU Trade Ministers (through October 31st).

• European Daylight Savings Time ends.

• Russia observes its annual day of remembrance for the victims of Stalin’s purges.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Unemployment Rate (September)

• South Africa Private Bank Lending (September), M3 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report

The Global Week Ahead: October 16-23, 2022

The markets will be paying close attention to China historic 20th National Congress of the Communist Party where President Xi Jinping will be handed an unprecedented third term in office.  But we expect there will be much more important announcements coming during the course of the week as Xi steers China into a new direction politically, socially, and economically. 

We will also be watching a number of major EU meetings this week focused on how the EU deals with the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, its impact on Europe’s economy, and how best to mitigate the impact.  Russia continues to suffer significant losses to Ukrainian Forces and concerns about what Russian President Putin might do via asymmetric warfare mount.  In the United States, Washington is fairly quiet as we are 22 days away from the mid-term elections.

Economically, we expect it to be another tough week for economic data globally. Inflation data will be coming out from a number of leading nations.  In particular,  China will be releasing a host of key data reports this week.  But markets may be watching most intensely data coming out of the UK giving a deeper sense of overall economy and inflation. 

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, October 16, 2022:

Global

·       The UN World Health Summit 2022 begins in Berlin (through October 18th)

·       The UN observes World Food Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil’s two presidential candidates, President Jair Bolsonaro and former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, participate in a televised debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s People’s National Congress begins in Beijing.  It is here where President Xi Jinping is expected to be enshrined in the constitution allowing him an unprecedented third term as President.  Other major constitutional changes are expected, too.

·       The 28th Public Works Minister Meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will be held through Oct. 17.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (September)

·       China Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September), PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 17, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold consultations on the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara.

·       The UN Development Program launches the 2022 Multidimensional Poverty Index looking at the diversity of poverty and reveals new patters that can help target development efforts worldwide.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress remains out of session until after the election.  They are expected to resume work on November 14th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (October)

·       Brazil IBC-Br Economic Activity (August)

·       Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (August)

·       Peru Unemployment Rate (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

·       Japan Industrial Production (August), Tertiary Industry Index (August), Capacity Utilization (August), Industrial Production (September)

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

·       Singapore Balance of Trade

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing and Services PMIs (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU is expected to approve a monitoring mission of the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg to exchange views on the Russian war on Ukraine.  They will also discuss issues related to ethe COP 27 meeting and the situation in Ethiopia.

·       EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets (through October 18th) to reach a political agreement on the fixing of fishing opportunities in 2023 the Baltic Sea.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz welcomes Spain’s King Filipe as part of an official visit.

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with Ms. Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with Mr. Manfred Weber, Ms. Iratxe García-Pérez and Mr. Stéphane Séjourné, Chairs of the European People’s Party Group, the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats and the Renew Europe Groups in the European Parliament

·       France’s President Emmanuel Macron opens the Paris Motor Show.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindo speaks on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the Euro at the Consejo General de Economistas de Madrid in Madrid, Spain.

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane participates in a roundtable event “For a New European Fiscal Framework” organized by Bocconi University and Deutsche Bank (a live streaming event).

·       Italy Inflation Rate (September)

·       Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East/Eurasia:

Political/Social Events –

·       The Organization of Turkic States’ foreign affairs ministers will informally meet in Astana, Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Budget Balance (September), Auto Production (September)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·      The corruption trial of former South African President Jacob Zuma resumes.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria BCB Focus Market Readout, Inflation Report (September)

Tuesday, October 18, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council holds a briefing on the UN stabilization mission to Mali and then a briefing in the afternoon on the UN Mission in Kosovo.

·       The UN convenes the 25th Session of the Committee of Experts on International Cooperation in Tax Matters in Geneva.

·       The UN Office of Counter-Terrorism cohosts a two-day conference with the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan on “International and Regional Border Security and management Cooperation to Counter Terrorism and Prevent the Movement of Terrorists” in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Industrial Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Redbook (October), NAHB Housing Market Index (October), Net Long-Term TIC Flows (August)

·       Canada Housing Starts (September)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (September)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China GDP Growth Rate (Q3), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Industrial Capacity Utilization (Q3), Unemployment Rate (September), Foreign Direct Investment (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets to prepare for the EU Council meeting on October 20-21.

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with the EU College of Commissioners.

·       France's General Confederation of Labor (CGT) union will hold country-wide strikes to demand higher wages.

·       The UK’s BBC celebrates its 100th anniversary.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnable participates in an alumni event at the University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany.

·       Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October), New Car Registrations (September)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October), ZEW Current Conditions (October)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (August)

·       UK 30-year Treasury Gilt Auction

·       Spain Balance of Trade (August)

Middle East/Eurasia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Kuwait will hold its first parliament session since the general election in September.

·       Azerbaijan celebrates Restoration of Independence Day.

·       Qatar officially opens the Al-Kharsaah solar power plant, which is integral to the country’s ambition to host the first net-zero World Cup later this year.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (September).

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Africa Energy Week Conference begins in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, October 19, 2022:

Global

·       The UN General Assembly meets to on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals.

·       The UN Security Council holds in the morning a briefing on the UN’s Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic. In the afternoon,

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The White House will host a workshop with 50 representatives from consumer product groups, manufacturing companies, and tech think tanks regarding the National Security Council’s plans for consumer product cybersecurity labeling program.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US MBA Mortgage Market Index and other Key Indexes (October), Housing Starts/Building Permits (September)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (September), CPIs and PPIs (September), Raw Materials (September)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade/Imports (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation will hold its finance ministers meeting in Bangkok, Thailand, through Oct. 21.

·       Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee will deliver his maiden policy address.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Tripartite Social Summit meets in Brussels to discussion “tackling the energy crisis and the cost-of-living crisis: How to protect the economy, businesses, and workers.”  Attendees include EU President Ursala von der Leyen, leaders of BusinessEurope, the European Trade Union Confederation, SGI Europe, SMEunited, and CEC European Managers.

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen participates in the European Parliament plenary debate on the preparation of the European Council meeting (being held October 20-21)

Economic Reports/Events –

·       UK Inflation Rate (September), PPIs (September), Retail Price Index (September) 10-year Gilt Treasury Auction

·       Eurozone CPI (September), Inflation Rate (September), Construction Output (September)

·       Russia PPIs (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP (Q2)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (September), Retail Sales (August)

Thursday, October 20, 2022: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson and Governor Lisa Cook will give remarks at the “At Exploring Careers in Economics” conferences sponsored by the Federal Reserve.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will give pre-recorded remarks at the 2022 Federal Reserve Community Development Research Seminar Series: Toward an Inclusive Recovery.

·       US Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index/CAPEX Index/New Orders/Business Conditions (all October), Existing Home Sales (September), CB Existing Home Sales (September),

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (September), Economic Activity (August), Leading Indicators (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysia's election commission will meet to set a date for the 15th general election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate (1Y and 5Y for October)

·       Japan Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

·       Australia Unemployment Figures (September)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Export Orders (September)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (September)

·       South Korea PPIs (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       European Council Meeting (through October 21st). They will discuss the situation in Ukraine, energy policy, economic issues, and external relations.

·       Informal meeting of Transport Ministers (Through October 21st)

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen participates in the EPP Summit.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPIs (September)

·       UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (September)

·       France Business Confidence

·       Eurozone Current Account (August)

·       Italy Construction Output (August), Current Account (August)

·       Poland PPIs (September),  Employment Figures (September), Industrial Production (September), Industrial Production (September)

Middle East/Eurasia:

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurasian Economic Union will hold its intergovernmental council in Yerevan, Armenia. 

·       Lebanon will elect a new president during a special parliament session.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Lending Rate (October), Overnight Borrowing Rate (October), FX Reserves (October), Central Government Debt (September)

·       Iran Inflation Rate (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (August)

Friday, October 21, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council holds a briefing and consultations on the UN’s Support Mission in Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Retail Sales (August), Wholesale Sales (August), Manufacturing Sales (September), New Housing Index (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (September)

·       India FX Reserves (October), Bank Loan Growth (October)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (September), Foreign Direct Investment (Q3)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council meets (day 2)

Economic Reports/Events –

·       UK Retail Sales (September), Public Sector Net Borrowing Figures (September)

·       Poland Retail Sales (September)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (August), Wholesale Prices/Retail Prices (August)

·       Eurozone Consumer Confidence (October)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Qatar Total Credit Growth (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, October 22, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Steve Bannon, a former aide to President Trump, will be sentenced for contempt of Congress and defying subpoena convictions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida headlines a list of speakers at the Mt. Fuji Dialogue 2022.  The theme of this year’s Dialogue,  is “The US-Japan Alliance in the Age of Strategic Competition.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde attends and participates in “Mein Liblingsstück” event (my favorite piece) at the Alte Opera in Frankfurt, Germany.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 23, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Slovenia holds presidential elections.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron, Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari, Italian President Serio Mattarella join Pope Francis for the annual International Meeting of Dialogue and Prayer for Peace among World Religions in Rome (through October 25th).  The conference is expected to focus on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.