The Global Week Ahead: October 30 - November 6, 2022:
A week ago, the Chinese Communist Party Congress ended, and, not liking what they heard, the markets reacted quite negatively. This coming week, markets should pay attention to three events in China. First, we will be watching the Global Financial Leaders Summit in Hong Kong on Monday, where the CEOs from a number of leading Wall Street firms will speak. The Hong Kong government is hosting the event to showcase the city as still being a leading financial center in Asia. Second, on Thursday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz will lead a delegation of leading German CEOs for a one-day set of meetings to discuss greater investment opportunities in China. And third, on Saturday, Shanghai will host the China International Import Expo, where more than 3,000 companies from over 100 nations will gather to market new products and explore ways of expanding further into the Chinese market. We will be listening closely for any messaging around these three events coming from Beijing that might suggest a softer line toward foreign investment and engagement in the global markets.
Also this week, the UN's COP27 Conference begins in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, on Sunday, where we are likely to see one of the more controversial policy proposals around climate change brought up for debate: The payment of compensation and reparations for climate damage.
Meanwhile, markets will closely watch the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting. While most observers expect a 75-basis point hike in rates, they are looking for clues as to whether the Fed is on course for a similar hike in December or if they will scale back to 50- basis points. The Bank of England also meets to decide on a likely rate increase this week.
Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:
Sunday, October 30, 2022:
Global
Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Brazil holds its presidential runoff election. Polls have recently tightened considerably between former President Lula da Silver (“Lula”) and incumbent Jair Bolsonaro suggesting a statistical tie. Other polls suggest Lula is up by five points but down from the 15 point lead he had several months ago. In the first round, Luka won 48.4 percent of the vote and Bolsonaro won 43.2 percent.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Vietnam’s Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong will visit Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi (through November 2nd). Trong will be the first foreign leader to visit Xi in his third term begins. China is Vietnam’s largest trading partner and key source of raw materials. They are also expected to discussion ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea and the future of Taiwan.
Japan’s Fukushima gubernatorial election to be held.
Japan’s official start of campaigning for the Kumamoto mayoral election.
Economic Reports/Events –
Japan Retail Sales (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)
Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (October), Retail Sales (September), Private Sector Credit (September)
South Korea Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Construction Output (September)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
ECB Member Philip Lane gives a speech at Danmark’s Nationalbank Conference in Copenhagen.
Informal meeting of EU Trade Ministers (through October 31st).
European Daylight Savings Time ends.
Russia observes its annual day of remembrance for the victims of Stalin’s purges.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Israel Unemployment Rate (September)
Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (September) M3 Money Supply (September)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Monday, October 31, 2022:
Global
The International Atomic Energy Agency hosts a Symposium on International Safeguards in Vienna, Austria.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will release its 2022 World Oil Outlook.
The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Threats to International Peace and Security.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
The US and EU are set to meet sometime this week – date still to be announced – to try and settle a growing trade dispute over domestic manufacturing requirements for electric vehicle batteries. Both the US and EU have established task forces to work on the matter. France and Germany have threatened trade retaliation measures against the US subsidies which give a $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles equipped with batteries manufactured in North America and use minerals mined or recycled in the region.
Economic Reports/Events –
US Chicago PMI (October), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (October)
Mexico GDP (Q3)
Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
Colombia Unemployment Rate (September)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
South Korea and the United States will begin five days of combined air drills called “Vigilant Storm” in South Korea.
Hong Kong hosts the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit. Leading US financial CEOs will attend the three-day event and give speeches. Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee will give welcoming remarks at the conference which is aimed at shoring up Hong Kong’s standing as a leading financial center in Asia.
Economic Reports/Events –
China NBS Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing/General PMIs (October)
India Government Budget Value (September), Infrastructure Output (October)
Japan Consumer Confidence (October), Housing Starts (September), Construction Orders (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)
Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September), Retail Sales (September), Private Sector Credit (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)
South Korea Industrial Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Retail Sales (September)
Hong Kong GDP (Q3)
Singapore Business Confidence (Q3)
Thailand Current Account (September)
Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (October)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Russian President Putin will host Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for trilateral talks in Sochi, Russia. Putin – following efforts by the EU – is seeking to broker a peace deal between the two nations.
The UK’s National Education Unions hold a ballot over whether to go on strike for better wages.
Economic Reports/Events –
Germany Retail Sales (September), Import Prices (September)
UK BOE Consumer Credit (September), Mortgage Lending (September), National Housing Prices (October)
Switzerland Retail Sales (September)
Poland Inflation Rate (October)
Spain Retails Sales (October), Current Account (August)
Italy GDP (Q3)
Eurozone GDP (Q3), Inflation Rate (October), CPI (October)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company hosts the Adipec Conference in Abu Dhabi where OPEC representatives and oil executives will be in attendance. The conference runs through November 3rd.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
South Africa Private Sector Credit (September), M3 Money Supply (September), Balance of Trade (September)
Kenya Inflation Figures (October)
Uganda Inflation Figures (October)
Tuesday, November 1, 2022:
Global
Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee begins two days of meetings to discuss the economy and interest rate increases (a 75-basis point increase is expected), Redbook (October), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October), ISM Manufacturing PMI (October), JOLTS Job Figures (September), Construction Spending (September), Dallas Fed Services Index (October), Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (October), LMI Logistics Managers Index Current (October)
Peru Inflation Rate (October)
Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes, Industrial Production (September), China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (October), Balance of Trade (October)
Colombia Monetary Policy Minutes, Exports (September), Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (October)
Mexico Business Confidence (October), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)
Argentina Tax Revenue (October)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Economic Reports/Events –
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (October)
India S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October)
Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (October)
South Korea Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(October)
Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October), Inflation Rate (October)
Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)
Hong Kong Retail Sales (September)
Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)
Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)
Australia Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision, Commodity Prices (October)
Pakistan Inflation Rate (October), Wholesale Prices (October)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will visit Japan (through November 3rd). After visiting Japan, Steinmeier will travel to South Korea for meetings with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and other senior officials.
Denmark to hold early general elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (October)
Switzerland Consumer Confidence (Q4) procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (October)
Russia S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), M2 Money Supply (September)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Israel holds general elections, its fifth parliamentary elections in less than four years.
Economic Reports/Events –
Israel Industrial Production (August)
Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Commerce Manufacturing PMI (October)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
The Arab League holds a summit in Algiers. UN Secretary General António Guterres will give opening remarks. But a number of regional leaders – including Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the Presidents of the UAE and Lebanon, the Emir of Kuwait, and the King of Bahrain, and the Sultan of Oman, are not planning on attending which will significantly impact the impact of the summit.
Economic Reports/Events –
South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (October), total New Vehicle Sales (October)
Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (October)
Wednesday, November 2, 2022:
Global
Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference, MBA Mortgage Reports (October), ADP Employment Change (October)
Chile IMACEC Economy Activity (September)
Mexico FX Reserves (September)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to visit China for meetings with Chinese President Xi. Sharif will express Pakistan’s gratitude for China’s $88 million in relief aid following the recent massive flooding in the country. He is also expected to ask for debt relief on $6.3 billion of debt the country owes China as part of its involvement in China’s Belt & Road Initiative.
Economic Reports/Events –
China Caixin Services and Composite PMIs (October)
Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
India M3 Money Supply (October)
Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (October)
South Korea Inflation (October), CPI (October), FX Reserves (October)
Australia Ai Group Manufacturing Index (October), Building Permits (September), Reserve Bank Chart Pack, S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (October), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (September)
Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (October), Interest Rate Decision
Singapore S&P Global PMI (October)
Thailand Business Confidence (October)
Pakistan Balance of Trade (October)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)
Germany Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (September), Unemployment Rate (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)
France Budget Balance (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)
Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)
Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)
Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)
UK Nationwide Housing Prices (October)
Russia's Unemployment Rate (September), Real Wage Growth (August), Business Confidence (October), Retail Sales (September), GDP (September)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Saudi Arabia Interest Rate Decision
Kuwait Inflation Rate (September), Interest Rate Decision
Israel Manufacturing PMI (September), Composite Economic Index (September)
Qatar Balance of Trade (September)
Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)
Iran Inflation Rate (September)
Iran Inflation Rate (October)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan to visit China through November 4th. She will meet with President Xi and other senior Chinese officials and is expected to sign bilateral agricultural and infrastructure investment deals with China.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Thursday, November 3, 2022:
Global
G-7 Foreign Ministers meet in Munster, Germany to discuss Ukraine and China (through November 4th).
Pope Francis travels to Bahrain to participate in the Bahrain Forum for Dialogue (through November 6th)
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
US Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (September), Unit Labor Costs (Q3), Nonfarm Productivity (Q3), Initial Jobless Claims (October), S&P Global Composite/Services/Non-Manufacturing PMIs (October), Factory Orders (September), ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices/New Orders/Employment/Business Activity Reports (October), Total Vehicle Sales (October)
Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September), Building Permits (September)
Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (October)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Japan celebrates Culture Day, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
India S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs (October)
Japan Jibun Bank Services and Composite PMIs (October)
Australia RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, Ai Group Construction Index (October)
Indonesia GD Growth Rate (Q3), FX Reserves (October)
Thailand Consumer Confidence (October)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to visit China for quick set of meetings with President Xi. Scholz will be accompanied by a German business delegation seeking new deals with China. Among those in the delegation are the CEOs of BASF, Bayer, Merck, BMW, BioNTech, Deutsche Bank, and Siemens. The meetings are only for one day due to strict COVID restrictions in China.
EU President von der Leyen will participate in the Berlin Process Summit for the Western Balkans. The summit is seeking to help facilitate negotiations on a Common Regional Market as well as address issues such as the green agenda, climate, energy, and energy security for the region. Later that day, von der Leyden will return to Brussels to meet the newly elected Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni.
UK’s Royal Mail staff begin a strike over better wages.
Economic Reports/Events –
Bank of England interest rate decision and monetary policy report, S&P/CIPS UK Services and Composite PMIs (October)
ECB Member Fabio Panetta gives the keynote speech at the ECB Money Market Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.
ECB Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel discussion at Central Bank of Ireland’s Financial Services Conference in Dublin, Ireland.
Eurozone Unemployment Rate (September)
Spain Unemployment Change (October)
Italy Unemployment Rate (September)
Russia S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs (October)
Switzerland Inflation Rate (October)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
The UAE celebrates its 10th Flag Day (which indicates a growing shift to a national framework and away from a religious/tribal identity).
Economic Reports/Events –
Egypt S&P Global PMI (October)
Saudi Arabia S&P Global PMI (October)
Turkey Inflation Rate (October), CPI (October), PPIs (October), FX Reserves (October)
Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (October)
Qatar Financial Centre PMI (October)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
South Africa S&P Global PMI (October), Electricity Consumption/Production Figures (September)
Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (October)
Uganda PMIs (October)
Kenya PMIs (October)
Zambia PMIs (October)
Ghana PMIs (October)
Friday, November 4, 2022:
Global
UN’s Food and Agriculture Organizations Food Price Index (October) is published which will give us a clear sense of food inflation globally and risks to food security going forward.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
US Unemployment Figures (October)
Canada Unemployment Figures (October), Ivey PMIs (October)
Peru Balance of Trade (September)
Brazil S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (October)
Colombia PPIs (October)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
India FX Reserves (October), Bank Loan Growth (October), Deposit Growth (October)
Taiwan Inflation Rate (October), Wholesale Prices (October), FX Reserves (October)
Singapore Retail Sales (September)
Thailand Inflation Rate (October), CPI (October)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
ECB President Christine Lagarde gives the opening lecture on monetary policy in the Euro Area hosted by the Eesti Pank in Tallinn, Estonia.
ECB Member Andrea Enria gives remarks at the Cumberland Lodge Financial Services Summit in Windsor, UK.
Eurozone S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (October), PPIs (September)
Germany Factory Orders (September), S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (October), New Car Registrations (October)
UK S&P Global/CIPS Services and Composite PMIs (October), New Car Sales (October)
France Industrial Production (September), Private Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3), S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (October)
Spain Industrial Production (September), S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (October), Consumer Confidence (October)
Italy S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (October)
Switzerland FX Reserves (October)
Poland
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to visit Turkey for meetings with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss Sweden’s and Finland’s joining the alliance. Erdogan is threatening again to hold up the membership of both countries due to his belief both countries are “providing shelter to outlawed Kurdish militants” Turkey considers to be terrorists.
Economic Reports/Events –
Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Saturday, November 5, 2022:
Global
Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Colombia Inflation Rate (October)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
The China International Import Expo begins in Shanghai. The six-day event is expected to draw 3,000 foreign companies from over 100 countries who are seeking to broaden their sales into China.
Malaysia’s Election Commission holds nominations for 222 parliamentary constituencies in advance of the November 19th federal elections. 14 days of official campaigning commences tomorrow (November 6th)
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
UK’s National Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers Union (RMT) go a day-long strike for a second time for better wages. They are expected to strike again on November 7th.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, November 6, 2022:
Global
The United Nation’s 2022 Climate Change (COP27) Conference begins in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. The Conference will be seeking to build off the Glasgow, Scotland conference held in 2021 and seek to accelerate global climate action on emissions reduction and enhance flows of appropriate financing to reach those goals. They are also expected to touch on the potentially politically controversial issue of compensation and reparations for climate damage.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Israel Business Confidence (October), Tourist Arrivals (October), Consumer Confidence (October)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.