The Global Week Ahead

Central Banks Dominate the Markets and Politics this Week, Voting Begins in Pennsylvania and a Number of Other States, and the Quad Leaders Meet with President Biden to Discuss Indo-Pacific Security Issues

For markets this coming week, it is all about central bank meetings and interest rates.  The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Central Bank of Brazil all meet.  But of them all, the U.S. Fed’s decision will likely be the most impactful as markets debate whether it is a 25—or 50-basis cut. 

Against this global monetary backdrop, voting begins in the U.S., with Pennsylvania kicking off in-person voting and a number of other states beginning mail-in voting.  The Fed’s decision to cut rates – if, in fact, that is what they do – is likely to incur the wrath of former President Trump, who has already suggested such a cut two months before the election, is meant to tip the political scales for Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats.   But as this happens, the U.S. Congress seems to be marching toward another government shutdown as House Republicans battle over what should be added to a Continuing Resolution (C.R.) to keep the government open until at least after the elections.  History has repeatedly shown that the political party that causes shutdowns pays for it at the ballot box.  There is hope a last-minute solution can be reached, but the timeline is getting increasingly tight.

Meanwhile, President Biden will host the Quad Summit in his home state of Delaware this week.  The Prime Ministers of India, Japan, and Australia will gather with Biden to discuss the current security situation in the Indo-Pacific and how best to deal with growing tensions with China in the South China Sea and elsewhere.   As this is happening – and on a positive note – the top Chinese General in the region, General Wu Yanan, is expected to visit the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii this week.  It has been at least three years since such a meeting has taken place and it is considered to be a notable step in improving relations and engagement between China and the U.S.  The visit comes after a video conference call between the General Yanan and Admiral Samuel Paparo, Head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, the first such call in a long time.

Turning back to the global economic radar screen for the week, markets are watching the August US retail sales numbers and industrial production figures.  In Europe, the U.K. releases its August inflation prints, while Germany releases the latest ZEW survey.  In Asia, Japan’s August CPI and trade balance are out this week, while China releases retail sales and industrial production figures.

Below are the many other important events and releases we are watching this coming week: 

Sunday, September 15, 2024

Global

·       Muslims worldwide mark "al-Mawlid al-Nabawi", the birthday of Prophet Mohammed.

·       The IMF will resume online consultations with Russia ahead of the organization's first visit to the country since 2019. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentine President Javier Milei presents budget for 2025 to Congress. He is breaking normal tradition of sending it and instead deliver it in person.

·       After signing into law the controversial new judicial reform bill, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador leads 'cry of independence' ceremony in Mexico City, his final public event as president.

·       Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua all celebrate their respective Independence Days today.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 56th ASEAN Economic Ministers Meet  (AEM) takes place in Vientiane, Laos.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FDI (YTD) (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds presidential elections. Independent candidate Mircea Geoană is estimated to secure the most votes, followed closely by the Prime Minister and leader of the Social Democrat Party (PSD), Marcel Ciolacu.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz begins his first trip to Central Asia with visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.  The trip comes after Scholz hosted the leaders of five central Asian nations in Berlin in 2023 to discuss closer cooperation and to find a way to pry away growing relations these nations are building with Russia and China.  Scholz will take part in the C5+1 meeting in Kazakhstan (the C5 being Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan). 

·        The NATO Military Committee meets in Prague, Czech Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at the Open Day 2024 of Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       In Iran, today is the 2nd anniversary of protests sparked by death of Mahsa Amini arrested for alleged breach of Iran's strict dress code.  The government is enforcing a strict lock-down on any protests or visits to her grave.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August) / Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (August)/ M1 Money Supply (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Students in Nigeria will hold nationwide protests over rising fuel prices.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 16, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East.  Humanitarian Coordinator for Gaza Sigrid Kaag reports to the Council her latest findings.

·       UN Security Council The UN nuclear watchdog IAEA holds its annual General Conference in Geneva.

·       The UN Special Rapporteurs will press conference on violence and human rights violations in Gaza, occupied Palestinian Territories in Geneva.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former President Donald Trump launches his cryptocurrency platform World Liberty Financial with a live address from Mar-a-Lago, Florida.

·       Pennsylvania beings early voting.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales Final (July)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (July)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (September)/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Colombia Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (July)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Economic ministers gather in Vientiane. The high-level gathering, meant to foster economic cooperation and integration, comes as the region continues to navigate challenges brought by geopolitical tensions and China's slowing economy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (August)

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (July)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany will introduce stricter controls at its land borders for the next six months. 

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Research Ministers through September 17 in Budapest, Hungary. 

·       Audi unions have called for demonstration by auto workers against job losses in Europe.

·       An initiative group headed by Armenia's former justice minister will begin collecting signatures on the issue of holding a referendum on Armenia's accession to the European Union.

Economic Reports/Events –

European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a conversation at event VII Foro Banca organized by El Economista in Madrid, Spain.

European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a speech at the European Investment Bank Chief Economists' meeting in Luxembourg.

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts/ ECB Guindos Speech/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Labour Cost Index Q2/ Wage Growth Q2/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Italy Inflation Rate Final (August)/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (July)

·       Serbia Building Permits (July)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)

·       Turkey Auto Production (August)/ Auto Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (August)

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Global

·       In Geneva, A UN sponsored independent international Fact-Finding Mission Venezuela’s latest report to the Human Rights Council will be launched.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Bolivian President Evo Morales and allied unions begin march to La Paz to call for his presidential candidacy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Housing Starts (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI Median (August)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (August)

·       USA Retail Sales (August)/ Redbook (September/14)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Business Inventories (July)/ Fed Logan Speech/ NAHB Housing Market Index (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/13)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate Final Q2

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (July)

·       India WPI Food & Fuel Index (August)/ WPI Inflation (August)/ WPI Manufacturing (August)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/17)

·       Australia RBA Jones Speech

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will announce plans for the make-up of her next commission in the European Parliament. 

·       The European Parliament will hold its first plenary session since the summer break (its second since EU elections in June) through September 19.  They are expected to debate and vote on a resolution on Venezuela and the recent fraudulent elections.

·       Moldova will host a ministerial conference within the Moldova Partnership Platform to support the country's European integration.  This is being done in conjunction with the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) making a pre-electoral visit to Moldova through September 18 to assess the country's political climate. 

·       Milan Fashion Week begins.  Derek Zoolander will not be there.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives opening remark at the Supervisory Culture Conference organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel entitled Culture and Supervisory Risk Tolerance" at Supervisory Culture Conference organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates on a panel Participation entitled "Supervisory Effectiveness" at Supervisory Culture Conference organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)/ ZEW Current Conditions (September)

·       Belarus GDP (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Consumer Confidence Q3

Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Global

·       The UN General Assembly will hold a special session, vote on Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories.  It is expected they will vote to call on Israel to end military action in Gaza and withdraw.  The resolution is expected to call Israel’s actions there as “unlawful.”

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).  

·       The G20 Research and Innovation Ministerial meeting will be held in Manaus, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       New York City will hold its Inaugural National Urban Rat Summit on combatting rat infestations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets to discuss interest rates.  Fed Chair Powell will host a press conference afterward at 2:30 p.m. EST.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/13)/ Building Permits Prel (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/13)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (July)

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q2/ Private Spending Q2

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (July)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (July)

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India's Jammu and Kashmir holds local elections , marking the Himalayan region's first polls in a decade and five years after New Delhi yanked its special autonomy status. The vote will be held over several phases with results expected early next month.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q3/ Current Account Q2

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Machinery Orders (July)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (August)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (September)

·       India M3 Money Supply (September/06)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Services PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets International Committee of the Red Cross President Mirjana Spoljaric in Moscow.  Spoljaric will be attending the 4th Eurasian Women’s Forum being held in Moscow.

·       Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard will make her first foreign visit to Turkey since Turkey allowed Sweden to join NATO.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives opening remarks at the  Supervision Innovators Conference 2024 "Technology and banking supervision connected" organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a speech on "The future of European banking supervision - connecting people and technology" at Supervision Innovators Conference 2024 "Technology and banking supervision connected" organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI Output (August)/ PPI Input (August)/ Retail Price Index (August)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech/ Inflation Rate Final (August)/ Construction Output (July)/ CPI Final (August)/ ECB McCaul Speech

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (July)

·       Russia PPI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (July)/ Total Credit (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Africa Aerospace and Defence (AAD) Begins in Centurion, South Africa.

·       significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

Thursday, September 19, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East (Gaza and Israeli settlements). 

·       G7 Culture Ministers meet Positano, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Wisconsin starts mailing ballots to voters who requested them.

·       Colombia’s Workers Central Union will hold protests in Bogota in support of President Gustavo Petro’s economic and social policies. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Current Account Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/14)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (September)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (September)/ Philly Fed Employment (September)/ Philly Fed New Orders (September)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (September)/ Existing Home Sales (August)/ CB Leading Index (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/13)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/18)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/18)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (July)/ Imports (July)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       The Bank of Japan meets to decide interest rates.

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (September/14)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/14)

·       Australia Employment Change (August)/ Participation Rate (August)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Taiwan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao holds talks with EU's Valdis Dombrovskis on EV tariffs in Brussels.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Transportation Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 20.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will participate in a press conference with Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, on support to Ukraine’s energy security for the coming winter.  Later, she will host a working lunch with the leaders of the six Western Balkan partners.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of England meets to discuss and decide interest rates.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in an exchange of views on "Current aspects of monetary policy" with Association of German Banks (Committee for Economic and Monetary Policy) in Frankfurt, Germany.  Later, she chairs a session entitled “Jean Monnet Lecture” at the 9th ECB Annual Research Conference in Frankfurt.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (August)

·       Euro Area Current Account (July)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (August)/ SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (August)/ Employment Growth (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ PPI (August)

·       Italy Current Account (July)

·       Serbia Current Account (July)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/13)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Slovakia Current Account (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (September)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)

Friday, September 20, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). 

·       The UN’s Summit of the Future Action Days  begins and runs through September 23 in New York.  The theme is "#YouthLead for the Future: We believe in the promise of a better world for all". 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Minnesota and South Dakota start mail and in-person early voting; Virginia begins in-person early voting.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "The Federal Reserve: It's More Than Just Interest Rates" before the Tulane University Freeman School of Business Lecture event in New Orleans, Louisiana.

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ PPI (August)/ Raw Materials Prices (August)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/20)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (August)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (August)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (August)/ BoJ Interest Rate Decision

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (September)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (August)

·       Hong Kong Current Account Q2/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (September/06)/ Deposit Growth (September/06)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/13)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Czech Republic holds the first round of Senate elections.

·       Today is the deadline for EU member states under excessive deficit procedure to issue their medium-term fiscal adjustment plans, which most countries are set to miss. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the 2024 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture organized by the IMF in Washington, DC.  She then participates in a conversation with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the IMF.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Board Catherine Mann gives the keynote speech at the Central Bank Research Association, National Bank of Poland, and Bank of Lithuania 5th Biennial Conference entitled “Macroeconomic adjustments after large global shocks” in Lithuania.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential Policy David Bailey gives a speech at the Building Societies Association entitled “Strong and Simple – Completing the Picture” in London.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (August)

·       Germany PPI (August)

·       France Business Confidence (September)

·       Switzerland Current Account Q2

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (September)/ Central Government Debt (August)

·       Greece Current Account (July)

·       Italy Construction Output (June)/ Construction Output (July)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (July)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (September)/ PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (September)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Russia Consumer Confidence Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit Growth (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ghana PPI (August)

Saturday, September 21, 2024

Global

·       The G20 Tourism Ministerial Meetings take place in Belem, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden will host the Quad Summit in Wilmington, Delaware.  The leaders of Australia, Japan, and India will gather to discuss security issues in the Indo-Pacific.

·       Today is the federal deadline for all absentee ballots to be mailed to military and overseas voters. Eleven states will send out their mail-in ballots by this day, and North Carolina is expected to as well.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Sri Lanka holds Presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Oktoberfest begins in Munich, Germany and runs through October 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria holds gubernatorial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 22, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Thailand New Car Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, the state of Brandenburg holds state elections.

·       Switzerland holds a referendum vote on initiative to strengthen biodiversity protection.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today in South Sudan is the deadline for dissolution of the transitional unity government ahead of possible December elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Summer is Over, and A Hectic Autumn Begins: US Elections Heat Up, China Ramps Up Relations with Africa, Germany’s Historic Elections, And What US Job Figures Will Tell Markets

September 1 - 8, 2024

Summer is now over (per the UK Meteorological calendar, which says September 1 is the first day of Autumn, and we are entering a hectic and likely historic autumn.   The US presidential elections loom a little over two months away (the first presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is scheduled for September 10).  

But in the coming week, there will be some very significant events markets will watch closely.  Beijing will be bustling this coming week as China hosts the China-Africa Forum.  Leaders from across Africa will attend the meeting to discuss climate issues, increased trade opportunities, and likely new loans from China to many of the attending countries.  The meeting is all part of Beijing's efforts to expand its influence across the continent while securing critical mineral rights and increased trade opportunities.

But that is not all that is happening in Beijing this week.  UK Foreign Minister David Lammy is expected to visit for meetings with China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, and a possible meeting with President Xi Jinping.  Additionally, Chief US Climate Advisor to President Biden, John Podesta, will visit to discuss cementing new climate goals. At the same time, US Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade, Marisa Lago, will travel to Tianjin, China for meetings with her counterpart on a wide range of issues stressing the US-China relationship.  Both the Podesta and Lago meetings come on the heal of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan's meeting with President Xi and Foreign Minister Wang last week. 

The big event in Europe this week is the state elections held today in Germany (Sunday) – the impact of which is shaking most of the rest of Europe and beyond.  The states of Saxony and Thuringia held votes, and it appears the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party has won in Thuringia – the first time a far-right party has won a state poll since World War II.  The AfD took second place in Saxony – but just by a little more than a percentage point – to the Christian Democrat Party.  Additionally, the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) showed growing strength in both elections, coming in third in both, while the ruling SPD Party came in a very weak fourth place.  

Both the AfD and the BSW strongly oppose military and financial aid to Ukraine, and both have expressed sympathy for Russian President Vladimir Putin's views on the War.  However,  neither party is expected to win enough seats to form a ruling coalition.  And virtually no other party wants to create a coalition with the AfD due to their neo-Nazi leanings.

Also, this week in Europe, former Italian Prime Minister and  European Central Bank Chief Mario Draghi will meet with EU Parliamentary leaders to discuss a forthcoming "landmark" report on EU competitiveness.  Last year, EU President Ursula von der Leyen asked Draghi to conduct the study and recommend how the EU can better compete globally.  The report is expected to make a number of seismic recommendations, primarily aimed at filling the productivity gap between the EU, the US, and China.

Also this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin travels to Mongolia to commemorate the joint Soviet-Mongolian defeat of Japan in World War II.  But the real significance of the trip is that Mongolia is a signatory of the International Criminal Court, which has a warrant out for Putin's arrest since 2023 for war crimes.  This is Putin's first visit to an ICC signatory nation since he directed the invasion of Ukraine.  Mongolia has no intention of honoring that signature or of arresting Putin, a blow to the ICC's stature.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen for the coming week, markets are looking at the US jobs report (non-farm payrolls) being released this coming Friday (will they be softer or more robust than expected, and will that, in turn, lead to a larger rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month?).   Also this week, the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book, and the Bank of Canada meets to decide interest rates.

Moving to Asia, China releases PMIs and the Caixin indexes, while Japan releases closely watched wage figures, and Australia releases second-quarter GDP figures.

In Europe, markets will closely follow the EU Parliament's reception of the Draghi reported above.   Meanwhile, Germany will release closely watched industrial production and trade balance figures as well as factory orders—all critical indicators of whether the German economy is beginning to recover or is still struggling. 

Below are the other key events around the world we are watching closely:

Sunday, September 1, 2024 

Global

·       Slovenia assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of September.

·       UN General-Secretary Antonio Guterres visits Singapore for meetings.  He will then travel to China to participate in the China-Africa Forum.

·       Today is the first day of Autumn per the UK Met Meteorological calendar.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chief US Climate Advisor to President Biden, John Podesta, will travel to China for meetings on how to advance further mutual climate agreements.

·       Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador gives an annual speech on the executive branch’s accomplishments, similar to a State of the Nation address.  President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum will be sworn into office on October 1.   Also, Mexican students are expected to turn out in large numbers to protest the President’s proposed judicial reform effort.  The lower chamber of Congress, sworn into office today, begins debate on the measure today.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia hosts the 2nd Annual Indonesia-Africa Forum in Bali.  Indonesian President Joko Widodo and more than 30 African leaders will meet for three days to discuss how to deepen political and economic ties, build stronger supply chains and healthcare systems.

·       Azerbaijan holds parliamentary elections.

·       Today is Uzbekistan Independence Day, celebrating when the country was able to declare its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

·       Today is Constitution Day in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade AUG

·       Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, state elections will be held in Saxony and Thuringia.  The far-right AfD Party is expected to win a significant share and possibly a majority of the votes.

·       UK Foreign Minister David Lammy will travel to Beijing for meetings to discuss trade and security issues.

·       Czechia will hold regional elections and the election of one-third of the Senate.

·       The GLOBSEC Forum 2024 will be held in Prague, Czechia. 

·       Border Force agents at Heathrow Airport are expected to go on strike through September 3.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 2, 2024

Global

·       Pope Francis begins a four-country Asia visit over twelve days and participates in more than 40 events.  Improving the Catholic-Muslim dialogue and climate change is at his agenda.  He will begin the trip to Indonesia, then travel to Papua New Guinea, East Timor, and Singapore.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden hold a campaign event in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

·       Bolivia is bracing for widespread national protests over the current economic crisis and shortage of dollars and fuel.

·       Today is Labor Day in the US and Canada. Financial markets and banks, as well as the US and Canadian governments, are closed.

·       Today is the 79th Anniversary of “VJ Day” when Japanese Foreign Minister Mamoru Shigemitsu and General Yoshijiro Umezu, on board the American warship the U.S.S. Missouri, signed the Potsdam Declaration, a document of surrender that the Allies had drawn up.

Economic Reports/Events

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Business Confidence (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (July)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will begin a state visit to China that runs through September 5.  Ramaphosa is also going to attend the Forum on China-Africa (Focac).  China is South Africa’s largest trading partner in Africa with more than $34 billion in exports to South Africa in 2023.  South Africa exported more than $12 billion to China in 2023.

·       South Korea will conduct a drill in Incheon on how to respond to “Disease X,” an unknown pathogen when it is detected and how to respond.

·       The BIMSTEC Summit (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) begins in Bangkok, Thailand and runs through September 4.

·       Today is Independence Day in Vietnam, marking the day the country was independent from France in 1945.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (August)/ Building Permits (July)/ Company Gross Profits Q2/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (August)/ Business Inventories Q2/ Private House Approvals Prel (July)/ Commodity Prices (August)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q2/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Business Confidence (August)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• French President Emmanual Macron is expected to meet with former Socialist Party official Bernard Cazeneuve about possibly serving as the next French Prime Minister.  Macron has been struggling to form a new government after recent elections.

• There will be an Informal Meeting of the EU General Affairs Council in Budapest, Hungary, through September 3.  The agenda will address two priorities of the Hungarian Presidency – which are interlinked: boosting the EU’s competitiveness and tackling demographic challenges. A plenary session will examine the possibilities of enhancing competitiveness and the rule of law through better law-making, followed by breakout sessions on the different aspects of competitiveness. Ministers will discuss demographic challenges during their working lunch. 

• The Bled Strategic Forum begins in Bled, Slovenia, and runs through September 3.  EU President Ursula von der Leyen will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Average Weekly Earnings Q2/ Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ GNP Q2

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (June)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (July)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (July)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ New Car Sales (August)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ PPI (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (August)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s largest labor union, the Histadrut Labor Federation, has called for a one-day strike to protest the government’s failure to secure a cease-fire in Gaza and the failure to get the hostages back.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (July)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)/ Private Bank Lending (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Food Systems Summit begins in Kigali, Rwanda and runs through September 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (August)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (August)

Tuesday, September 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (July)/ Gross Fixed Investment (June)

·       USA Redbook (August/31)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (August)/ Construction Spending (July)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (August)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (August)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (September)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (August)/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (August)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Mongolia to mark the 85th anniversary of the victory of Soviet and Mongolian forces over Japan in World War II.  This is a significant trip as Mongolia is a signatory to the International Criminal Court (ICC) which has a warrant out for the arrest of Putin for war crimes.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Exports/ Imports/ Terms of Trade Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/03)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (August)

·       Australia Current Account Q2/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn goes on trial for his role in the “Dieselgate” scandal.

·       Russia will host the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok through September 6.  Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and several other Asian leaders ae expected to attend.

·       The 32nd International Defense Industry Exhibition begins in Kielce, Poland.  Approximately 800 defense industry representatives will gather to exhibit the latest in military hardware.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Single Supervisory Mechanism and he European Banking Authority are jointly hosting a conference in Frankfurt looking at supervisory convergence. The conference runs through September 4.  Today, a host of international bank regulators and central bankers are speaking including Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden, European Central Bank Board Members Kerstin Jochnick, Elizabeth McCaul, IMF Deputy Director for Monetary and Capital Markets Marina Moretti, ohn Berrigan, Director General for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union, European Commission, Jennifer Burns, Deputy Director, Division of Supervision & Regulation, Federal Reserve Board, Agustín Carstens, General Manager of the Bank of International Settlements.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (August)

·       Romania PPI (July)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       France Budget Balance (July)

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q2

·       Spain Unemployment Change (August)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (August)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye will travel to China for a state visit through September 6.

·       The World Congress on Industrial Biotechnology will convene in Harare, Zimbabwe.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (August)

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q2

Wednesday, September 4, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Negotiators from the European Union and the Mercosur trade bloc of South American countries will meet in Brasilia to resume free trade negotiations through September 6. 

·       The US will host the fifth meeting of the U.S.-South Korea Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group in Washington, DC.

·       In Bolivia, the Movement Towards Socialism National Congress will meet.  Former President Evo Morales is expected to lay out his strategy to become the next president.

·       New York Fashion Week for the Spring/Summer 2025 season begins.  Will Derek Zoolander be there?  Or Hansel?  He’s so hot right now.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/30)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ JOLTs Job Openings (July)/ Factory Orders (July)/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/30)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (August)

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and press conference/Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia PPI (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Singapore through September 5.

·       The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation begins in Beijing and runs through September 6.  This is the largest diplomatic event China has held in recent years.  African leaders normally sign a number of large loan agreements with Beijing at this event, but this year may be different as China’s economy struggles and the government is expected to cut back the size of loans.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (August)/ Judo Bank Services/ Composite PMI Final (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q2/ GDP Chain Price Index Q2/ GDP Final Consumption Q2/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (August)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services/ Composite PMI Final (August)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       China Caixin Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       India HSBC Services/ Composite PMI Final (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August/23)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Italian Prime Minister and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will give an initial presentation of his landmark report on EU competitiveness to senior members of the various political groups of the European Parliament.  The report is likely to propose “a radical change” for EU’s economy. More than 400 pages long, the report looks at the energy, defense, and other major sectors and how they can become more globally competitive.  A formal presentation of the report will take place in the latter half of September.

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer takes part in first Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) following the end of the summer recess.  The UK Parliament came back into session on Monday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give a  keynote speech at the Joint European Banking Authority & European Central Bank international conference "Addressing supervisory challenges through enhanced cooperation" in Frankfurt.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Russia S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Spain HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       France HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Germany HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services/ Composite PMI (August)/ PPI (July)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (July)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Composite PMI Final (August)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (September)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (August)/ Auto Production & Sales (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey. The two leaders are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza and expansion of trade.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (August)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The World Conference on Soil, Water, Energy and Air will take place in Victoria, Seychelles.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (August)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (August)/ Business Confidence Q3

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (August)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (August)

Thursday, September 5, 202 

Global

·       In Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the Fifth Global Conference on Strengthening Synergies between the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development: Building a Just World and a Sustainable Planet will be held through September 6. The Conference is being co-convened by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat, and hosted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Brazil. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The tax fraud trial of Hunter Biden, President Biden’s son, begins in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (August)/ ADP Employment Change (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/31)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (August)/ ISM Services PMI (August)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/30)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/04)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q2/ S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (August)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia Exports (July)

·       Brazil Car Production (August)/ New Car Registrations (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Perth, Australia, Japan and Australia hold a 2-plus-2 defense and foreign ministers’ meetings.  Japan's Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Defense Minister Minoru Kihara will meet with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defense Minister Richard Marles in the first 2-plus-2 meeting since late 2022 in Tokyo. The primary focus of the meetings is China’s growing military expansion in the Indo-Pacific.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Hajime Takata gives a speech to local business leaders in in Ishikawa, Japan/ Japan Average Cash Earnings (July)/ Overtime Pay (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August/31)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/31)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (August)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock will give a speech at the Anika Foundation in Sydney, Australia/Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (August)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (July)

·       Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU ministers responsible for cohesion policy in Budapest, Hungary through September 6.  The agenda, according to the Hungarian government, which is chairing the EU through December, is to hold a high-level debate on the Policy's role in promoting competitiveness and employment, and effectively addressing demographic challenges. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen will participate in a fireside chat at Handelsblatt Banking Summit 2024 "Navigating the Storm: Banking Amid Interest Rate Changes, Real Estate Crises, and Geopolitical Uncertainty” in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Germany Factory Orders (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       Romania Retail Sales (July)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (August)/ New Car Registrations (July)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (August)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (August)

·       Serbia PPI (August)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/30)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan PPI (July)

·       Israel Business Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account Q2

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, September 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech at the University of Notre Dame’s Department of Economics.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak before the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics organized by the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (August)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (August)/ Auto Production (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (August)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/06)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to travel to Seoul, South Korea for meetings with President Yook Suk Yeol.   It will be one of Kishada’s last foreign trips before he steps down from office.  Bilateral relations between Japan and South Korea have warmed up considerably since the resolution this past March between the two countries over how to compensate Koreans who were forced to labor for Japanese occupation forces during World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (July)

·       Japan Household Spending (July)/ Coincident Index Prel (July)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (July)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Australia Home Loans (July)/ Investment Lending for Homes (July)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (August/23)/ Deposit Growth (August/23)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/30)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ukraine Defense Contact Group will meet at Ramstein Airbase in Ramstein, Germany.  Approximately 50 countries will be represented at the meeting chaired by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.  The focus of the meeting will be to further coordinate aid as well as find ways to accelerate military aid to Ukraine.

·       The 50th European House-Ambrosetti Conference takes place through September 7 in Milan, Italy.  Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech at the ESCB Legal Conference 2024 (a virtual event).

·       France Non-Farm Payrolls Q2/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q2

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (August)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (August)

·       Hungary Industrial Production Prel (July)/ Budget Balance (August)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (July)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Italy Retail Sales (July)

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate 3rd Est Q2/ Employment Change Final Q2

·       Greece Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Ireland Construction Output Q2

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Swaziland Independence Day, marking the day the country was granted independence from the UK in 1968.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Saturday, September 7, 2024

Global

·       The 13th BRICS Trade Union Forum will occur in Sochi, Russia.  The meeting brings together the leaders of the major trade unions of the respective BRIC member nations to better coordinate amongst themselves on worker-related issues.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade Marisa Lago will travel to Tianjin, China, for a meeting with China’s Vice Minister Wang Shouwen.  They are expected to discuss a wide range of topics, including US tariffs on China. The meeting will follow the recent visit of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will visit Beijing and Shanghai for meetings through September 12.  Sanchez, who has been plagued with corruption charges against him and his wife, is expected to discuss ongoing trade disputes between the EU and China, which have hit Spain in the areas of pork products, dairy, and brandy exports.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Algeria holds presidential elections. Incumbent President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, who is not popular among the electorate, faces two weak challengers and is expected to win in a landslide.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 8, 2024

Global

• The Paralympics’ closing ceremony is held in Paris.

• The World Nomad Games begin in Kazakhstan.  Athletes compete in 21 different types of sports, including Tug-of-War, Horseback Wrestling, Traditional Archery, Horseback Archery, Kok Boru (where horse riders from two teams compete to tear a goat’s carcass from the ground and break through the opposing team’s defenses and put it in the opponents goal), Mas-Wrestling (where two opponents sit opposite each other, resting their feet on a board between their feet, and pull on a stick. The one who pulls the stick or the other guy or both over the board wins), and more.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for Mexico’s government to present its 2025 budget proposal to Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 10. In addition to the informal meeting of the ministers, there will be a number of programs offering an insight into Hungarian culture and gastronomy. On the 8th of September ministers and their delegations will be welcomed with a Danube cruise and an opening dinner in the House of Music Hungary.  The meeting will conclude on the September 10 with a kick-off debate on a farmer-focused post 2027 Common Agricultural Policy Towards a competitive, crisis-proof, sustainable, farmer-friendly and knowledge-based future EU agriculture at the Conference Hall of Várkert Bazaar.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

August 25 - September 1, 2024

In Focus: Still Holding Out Hope for a Gaza Cease Fire; US National Security Advisor Sullivan Heads to China for High-Level Talks; Mexico’s Judges Protest Against Sweeping Reforms, and Inflation Data Released Before the Federal Reserve’s Next Meeting

Summer comes to an end this week, and we are all bracing for an extremely busy Autumn in the US and around the world.  The tense situation in the Middle East will continue to dominate the attention of markets this week, especially after Israel’s massive preemptive strike this weekend on Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon.  The strike is the biggest military action so far this year between Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah forces.  More than 100 Israeli fighter jets struck sites across the region, reportedly destroying a number of missile sites – estimated to be more than 40 sites – that were reportedly preparing to strike Tel Aviv and other urban centers in Israel. 

Yet, despite this significant uptick in fighting, negotiators are set to meet in Cairo this week, and the Qatari Prime Minister travels to Tehran for talks. Additionally, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Q. Brown, Jr., is traveling to Israel to ensure defense preparations against further Iranian or Iranian-affiliated attacks, emphasizing the US’ determination to discourage any attacks that could derail negotiations.

It seems some sort of cease-fire deal has been within reach for months now, but sources tell us this time, it is closer than ever.  We would note Iran has continued to hold off striking back at Israel following the assassination of a senior Hamas official who was visiting Tehran and the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander last month, actions Iranian officials swore to retaliate for. 

Meanwhile, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to Beijing this week for meetings with senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi.  The purpose of the meeting is to discuss ways to improve dialogue between Washington and Beijing, how to further incapacitate the fentanyl trade coming out of China, and surely discussions about China’s support for Russia’s war against Ukraine.  While Sullivan has had increasingly regular talks with Wang over the last two years, this is the first time he has visited Beijing for such meetings – and the first time a U.S. National Security Advisor has traveled to Beijing since 2016 when then-National Security Advisor Susan Rice went at the direction of President Barrack Obama.

This will be a big week in Mexico – the United States’ largest trading partner – as the country’s judiciary begins massive protests against a highly controversial “reform” effort by Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) to push through legislation requiring all judges be elected by popular vote instead of being appointed.  The worry is this will make the judiciary highly politicized and also allow drug cartels to have an even greater ability to control the legal system.  And it has foreign investors deeply worried about what it could do to commercial law in the country.  AMLO’s proposal has been endorsed by his successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, who is set to be sworn in as Mexico’s new president in October.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, markets are looking at US PCE and CPI prints this week – the last ones to come out before the Federal Reserve meets to discuss – and, as Fed Chair Jay Powell indicated in a speech in Jackson Hole Friday – begin lowering interest rates.  Additionally, the Conference Board releases the closely watched Consumer Confidence Index this week.

In Asia, it is a big week for economic reports.  Japan releases its August CPI figures, labor market numbers, and industrial production numbers.  China sets its 1-year MLF rate (along with a flood of Chinese corporate earnings), and Australia releases its August CPI.

Turning to Europe, CPI numbers will be out for the Eurozone, Germany, France, Spain, and Italy this week.  Germany and France also release consumer confidence reports, giving investors a deeper sense of whether the two economic engines of Europe are getting back on track or will continue sputtering.

Here is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:

Sunday, August 25, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican judicial workers – including judges – will rally in Mexico City to protest sweeping government-sponsored judicial reforms.  The proposals, being pushed through by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, have come under heavy criticism not only inside Mexico but from abroad.  Both the US Ambassador to Mexico, Ken Salazar, called the reforms a “major risk to democracy.”  The Canadian Ambassador to Mexico, Graham Clark, said, “My investors are concerned, they want stability, they want a judicial system that works if there are problems.”

·       In Argentina, unionized pilots flying for Aerolineas Argentinas will strike and stage demonstrations at Argentina's commercial airports through August 30. 

·       Today is Uruguay Independence Day, marking the day in 1828 when the country gained its independence from Portugal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Day of Songun, a national holiday in North Korea.  The day celebrating the start of the military-first rule in the nation under the leadership of Kim Jong-Il in 1948.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in panel discussion at The Rimini Meeting 2024 "Se non siamo alla ricerca dell'essenziale, allora cosa cerchiamo?" in Rimini, Italy.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shiite Arbaeen pilgrimage, which commemorates the martyrdom of Imam Hussein, will take place in Karbala, Iraq.  It is considered one of the world’s largest public gatherings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs hosts the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) Ministerial Meeting.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 26, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh meets with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in Washington, DC.  Singh will also chair a high-level roundtable with defense industry executives regarding ongoing and future defense collaborations.

·       The 10th Annual AmeriGEO Conference, hosted by Ecuador’s Secretariat for Risk Management and Military Geographic Institute, takes place in Quito, Ecuador.  The conference, which will be attended by senior government official from throughout the Hemisphere seeks to “brings together diverse communities and builds connections, fostering collaboration among national, regional, and international efforts in integrated Earth and social science research.’

·        

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence AUG/ Current Account JUL/ Foreign Direct Investment JUL/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Wholesale Sales MoM Prel JUL

·       USA Durable Goods Orders MoM JUL/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index AUG

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 53rd Pacific Islands Forum Leaders meeting takes place in Tonga.  UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will speak.  The main topics are expected to be climate change and ongoing tensions between China and the US.

·       The US and Indonesia hold Garuda Shield, a military exercise in Indonesia.

·       Today is National Heroes Day in the Philippines, honoring all those who died for the independence of the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade JUL

·       Singapore Industrial Production YoY JUL

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi travels to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Russia.   Grossi is traveling to inspect the plant following Russian drone attacks last week which damaged the facility.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused Ukraine of attacking the plant but evidence suggests it was actually Russian drones that hit the plant.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will meet the leaders of the far-right National Rally party alongside the leader of the center-right Les Republicains party, Eric Ciotti, as part of ongoing government formation consultations. 

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.

·       Today is the late Summer Bank Holiday in the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence AUG

·       Hungary Gross Wage YoY JUN

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q2

·       Spain PPI YoY JUL

·       Turkey Business Confidence AUG/ Capacity Utilization AUG

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate AUG/ Ifo Current Conditions AUG/ Ifo Expectations AUG

·       Poland Unemployment Rate JUL

·       Slovenia Business Confidence AUG

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani is expected to travel to Tehran, Iran for meeting with senior Iranian officials regarding the state of negotiations over Gaza as well as the looming threat of an attack by Iran on Israel.  Qatar and Egypt along with the US have acted as mediators in efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza to end the 10-month long war.  Talks are expected resume later this week between representatives of Hamas and Israel either in Cairo or in Qatar.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate YoY JUL

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply YoY JUL

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Manufacturing PMI JUL

·       Kuwait Private Bank Lending YoY JUL

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2

Tuesday, August 27, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to Beijing.  He will meet with top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi to discuss a range of issue ranging from Taiwan to US-China military talks and fentanyl.  This is the first visit by a US National Security Advisor to China since 2016.

·       SpaceX will attempt the first ever private spacewalk.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI YoY AUG

·       Mexico Balance of Trade JUL

·       USA Redbook YoY AUG/24/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY JUN/ House Price Index JUN/ CB Consumer Confidence AUG/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index AUG/ Dallas Fed Services Index AUG/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 22.5 to 30 yrs/ Money Supply JUL/ API Crude Oil Stock Change AUG/23

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY JUL

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence AUG

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment AUG

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade JUL

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez begins a multi-day visits Mauritania, Gambia and Senegal.

·       Today is Independence Day in Moldova, marking when the country gained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades AUG

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate AUG/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Spain Consumer Confidence JUL

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The US-Africa Nuclear Energy Summit takes place in Nairobi, Kenya.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate MoM AUG

Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

·       The 2024 Summer Paralympics begin in Paris and run through September 8.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chilean government authorities will attend the "Chile Summit India 2024" in New Delhi and Mumbai through August 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on payments at the Global Fintech Festival 2024, Mumbai, India.

·      USA MBA Mortgage Market Index AUG/23/ MBA Purchase Index AUG/23/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change AUG/23

·      Uruguay Unemployment Rate JUL

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator JUL/ Construction Work Done QoQ Q2

·       Philippines Budget Balance JUL

·       Malaysia PPI YoY JUL

·       Japan Coincident Index Final JUN/ Leading Economic Index Final JUN

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer visits Germany for meetings with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz his first visit to Germany since being elected Prime Minister.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence SEP

·       France Consumer Confidence AUG/ Unemployment Benefit Claims JUL/ Jobseekers Total JUL

·       Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence AUG

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final JUL

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households YoY JUL/ M3 Money Supply YoY JUL

·       Italy Industrial Sales YoY JUN

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index AUG

·       Slovenia Retail Sales YoY JUL

·       Greece Total Credit YoY JUL

·       Russia Unemployment Rate JUL/ Business Confidence AUG/ Corporate Profits JUN/ Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Real Wage Growth YoY JUN/ Retail Sales YoY JUL/ GDP YoY JUL

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

·       Qatar GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply YoY JUL/ Private Bank Lending YoY JUL

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, August 29, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution to extend the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), followed by consultations on the 1718 Committee.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US and Argentina sign a memorandum of understanding for the export of critical minerals to the US.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give "Introduction to the Federal Reserve and an Economic Outlook" presentation before a Georgia Tech Scheller College of Business Management of Financial Institutions class in Atlanta, Georgia.

·      Brazil IGP-M Inflation MoM AUG/ Bank Lending MoM JUL/ PPI YoY JUL/ Net Payrolls JUL

·      Canada Current Account Q2/ Average Weekly Earnings YoY JUN

·      USA GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ Corporate Profits QoQ Prel Q2/ GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ Goods Trade Balance Adv JUL/ Initial Jobless Claims AUG/24/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv JUL/ Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv JUL/ Core PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ Real Consumer Spending QoQ 2nd Est Q2/ Pending Home Sales YoY JUL/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change AUG/23/ Fed Balance Sheet AUG/28

·      Chile Unemployment Rate JUL

·      Colombia Business Confidence JUL

·      Argentina Consumer Confidence AUG

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment AUG/24/ Stock Investment by Foreigners AUG/24

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence AUG

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure QoQ Q2/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure QoQ Q2/ Private Capital Expenditure QoQ Q2

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade AUG/ Industrial Production YoY AUG/ Inflation Rate YoY AUG/ Retail Sales YoY AUG/ Tourist Arrivals YoY AUG

·       Singapore Export Prices YoY JUL/ Import Prices YoY JUL/ PPI YoY JUL

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Foreign Affairs Ministers will hold an informal meeting in Brussels.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron visits Serbia for meetings with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.  They will discuss ways to broaden economic ties but also Artificial Intelligence.  Serbia is chairing the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence – an initiative set up by Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

·       Today is the deadline for nominations to be submitted for EU Commissioners.

·       Today is the anniversary of the Slovak National Uprising, marking the day in 1944 when the people of Slovakia rose up against Nazi rule.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will participate on a panel entitled "Inflation – Challenges for Policymakers and Researchers" organized by Brandeis University/CEBRA at annual Central Bank Research Association meeting organized with the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE and Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain Car Production YoY JUL

·       European Union New Car Registrations YoY JUL

·       Spain Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG/ Business Confidence AUG

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index AUG/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves AUG/23

·       Germany Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY AUG/ Bavaria CPI YoY AUG/ Brandenburg CPI YoY AUG/ Hesse CPI YoY AUG/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY AUG/ Saxony CPI YoY AUG/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2

·       Euro Area Economic Sentiment AUG/ Consumer Confidence Final AUG/ Consumer Inflation Expectations AUG/ Industrial Sentiment AUG/ Selling Price Expectations AUG/ Services Sentiment AUG

·       Greece Unemployment Rate JUL

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG/ Wholesale Prices YoY JUL

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will host Iraqi, Qatari and Emirati officials for a Development Road Summit in Istanbul.  The estimated $20 billion project aims connect Iraq’s Basra port on the Persian Gulf to Turkey and beyond.  The UAE and Qatar are potential investors in the project.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade JUL

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI YoY JUL

Friday, August 30, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer AUG/ GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q2/ GDP MoM JUN/ Budget Balance JUN

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP JUL/ Nominal Budget Balance JUL/ Unemployment Rate JUL

·       USA PCE Price Index YoY JUL/ Personal Income & Spending JUL/ Chicago PMI AUG/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Final AUG

·       Chile Copper Production YoY JUL/ Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Manufacturing Production YoY JUL/ Retail Sales YoY JUL

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate JUL

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade JUL

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance JUL

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Popular Consultation Day in East Timor.  It marks the day when the country held a referendum in 1999 to let the people of East Timor choose between greater autonomy in Indonesia or separation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence AUG/ Building Permits MoM JUL

·       South Korea Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Retail Sales MoM JUL

·       Japan Unemployment Rate JUL/ Tokyo CPI AUG/ Retail Sales YoY JUL/ Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Consumer Confidence AUG/ Housing Starts YoY JUL/ Construction Orders YoY JUL

·       Philippines PPI YoY JUL

·       Australia Housing Credit MoM JUL/ Retail Sales MoM JUL/ Private Sector Credit YoY JUL

·       Singapore Bank Lending JUL

·       Thailand Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Current Account JUL/ Private Consumption & Investment JUL/ Retail Sales YoY JUN

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply YoY JUL

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales YoY JUL

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate YoY AUG/ PPI YoY JUL/ Balance of Trade JUL

·       India Government Budget Value JUL/ Foreign Exchange Reserves AUG/23/ Infrastructure Output YoY JUL/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Defense Ministers will hold an informal meeting in Brussels.

·       Members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization will conduct weeks-long military exercises in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to maintain regional stability amid threats emanating from Afghanistan. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a lecture at Ragnar Nurkse Lecture Series organized by Bank of Estonia in Tallinn, Estonia.

·       European Central Bank Board member Kerstin af Jochnick participates on a panel at the joint European Banking Authority & European Central Bank international conference on Supervisory Cooperation in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       France Private Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ Final Q2/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2/ Household Consumption MoM JUL/ PPI YoY JUL

·       Germany Retail Sales YoY MAY/ Import Prices YoY JUL/ Unemployed Persons/ Change/ Rate AUG

·       Romania Unemployment Rate JUL

·       Hungary PPI YoY JUL

·       Spain Retail Sales YoY JUL/ Current Account JUN

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators AUG

·       Italy Unemployment Rate JUL/ Inflation Rate Prel AUG/ Business & Consumer Confidence AUG

·       Poland Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate YoY AUG

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit JUL/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending JUL/ M4 Money Supply MoM JUL/ Net Lending to Individuals MoM JUL

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate Flash AUG/ Unemployment Rate JUL/ CPI Flash AUG

·       Greece PPI YoY JUL/ Retail Sales YoY JUN

·       Ireland Retail Sales YoY JUL

·       Serbia Balance of Trade JUL/ Industrial Production YoY JUL/ Retail Sales YoY JUL/ Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Ukraine Current Account JUL

·       Russia M2 Money Supply YoY JUL

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Turkey Victory Day, marking the day in 1922 when Turkish military forces defeated the Greeks at the Battle of Dumlupinar. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·    A special session of the African Ministerial Conference on the Environment and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification will be held in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply YoY JUL/ Private Sector Credit YoY JUL/ Balance of Trade JUL/ Budget Balance JUL

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves AUG

·       Kenya Inflation Rate YoY AUG

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply YoY JUL

Saturday, August 31, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Trinidad and Tobago Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its independence from Britain in 1962.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Niue, an island country in free association with New Zealand, holds a constitutional referendum which will change the head of government from a Premier to a Prime Minister, extend the term length of members of the assembly from three to four years, increase the size of the cabinet from four to six members, and make the Auditor-General of New Zealand as the country’s official auditor.

·       Today is Kyrgyzstan Independence Day, marking the day the country declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1992.

·       Today is Malaysia Independence Day, marking the day the country gained its independence from Britain in 1957.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Non- & Manufacturing PMI AUG/ NBS General PMI AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 1, 2024

Global

·       Slovenia assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of September.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador gives an annual speech on the executive branch’s accomplishments, similar to a state of the nation address.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·    Indonesia hosts the 2nd Annual Indonesia-Africa Forum in Bali.  Indonesian President Joko Widodo and more than 30 African leaders will meet for three days to discuss how to deepen political and economic ties and build stronger supply chains and healthcare systems.

·       Azerbaijan holds parliamentary elections.

·       Today is Uzbekistan Independence Day, celebrating when the country was able to declare its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

·       Today is Constitution Day in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade AUG

·       Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM AUG

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, state elections will be held in Saxony and Thuringia.

·       Czechia will hold regional elections and the election of one-third of the Senate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Could There Finally Be A Ceasefire in Gaza?  Indian Prime Minister Modi Makes a Historic Visit to Ukraine, and Central Bankers Gather in Jackson Hole

August 18 - 25, 2024

The situation in the Middle East will continue to dominate the geopolitical outlook this week as negotiations seeking a ceasefire in Gaza, and the release of hostages held by Hamas appear to have gotten closer to an agreement.  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel to the region again this week – his ninth trip there this year – hoping to clinch a deal.  But ongoing fighting between Hezbollah forces and Israeli forces intensified over the weekend and risks escalating into a far larger regional fight.

Meanwhile,  the Democratic National Convention begins in Chicago.  As many as 50,000 people are expected to participate.  But the party nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris may be marred by widespread protests by activists opposed to the Biden Administration’s supportive policy for Israel in Gaza.

This coming week will mark a  historic first: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit Kyiv, Ukraine to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.  Modi is seeking to play a role in helping to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, an effort that has been publicly encouraged by the US.  Modi will also visit Poland, the first time an Indian Prime Minister has visited the nation in 40 years.

Another important diplomatic trip this week is Vietnam’s new leader, To Lam, making his first official visit to China and his first overseas visit as President.  He will meet with President Xi Jinping, where the two leaders will likely finalize an important railroad deal and discuss ongoing tensions between the two nations over disputed territory in the South China Sea.  Vietnam has been stepping up its international diplomatic and trade efforts this year, upgrading ties with the US, Japan, and India.  But Vietnam also hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin in June, raising eyebrows in Tokyo, Washington, and Brussels.

Turning to the global markets and major economic events this coming week, markets will be laser-focused on Jackson Hole, Wyoming where the annual Kansas City Federal Reserve Conference will feature most of the leading international central bank chiefs.  Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will give a much-anticipated speech Friday and markets will be hoping for further indications of interest rate cuts being made at the next Federal Open Markets Committee meeting in September.

Also this week, both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will be releasing minutes from their last interest rate meetings.   The ECB will also be releasing their consumer expectations survey on Friday. 

This week’s other important releases this week include PPIs out of Germany, the UK, and Eurozone,  while Japan releases CPI and July trade balance figures.  Also of note in Japan this week, the Japanese Parliament (Diet) will hold a joint Lower House and Upper House Financial Affairs Committee hearing featuring Bank of Japan Governor Kajuo Ueda and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki to discuss the Bank’s rate increase in July and what it might mean for Japan’s economy longer term.

Below is what else we are watching closely this coming week:

Sunday, August 18, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam’s new President and Communist Party Chief To Lam will visit China for meetings with President Xi Jinping.  During the three-day visit, Lam is expected seek Xi’s support for his country’s rial projects as well as discuss ongoing disputes with China over the South China Sea.

·       In Singapore, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong delivers the annual National Day Rally

speech, his inaugural address after taking office on May 15. He is Singapore’s fourth prime

minister and his becoming Prime Minister is the nation’s first leadership change in 20 years.  He is expected to focus on plans to expand the social safety net in the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Azerbaijan for talks with President Ilham Aliyev on how to improve the two nation’s strategic relationship.   The two leaders are also expected to discuss the fragile settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan following a 44-day war in 2020. But the major issue for Putin is to secure the Russian gas supplies to Azerbaijan. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 44th Ordinary Summit of the Southern African Development Community Heads of State and Government meets in in Harare, Zimbabwe.  The theme of the conference is “Promoting Innovation to unlock opportunities for sustained economic growth and development towards an Industrialised SADC”.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 19, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).   

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will return to the Middle East in a bid to finalize a cease-fire agreement in Gaza and the release of hostages held by Hamas.  Blinken will mee with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then may travel to Cairo, Egypt and Doha, Qatar in a bid to finalize the deal.

·       The US Democratic Party Presidential Convention begins in Chicago, Illinois and runs through August 22.

·       Today is San Martin Day in Argentina, a national holiday.  Markets are closed.  But Unionized pilots flying for Aerolineas Argentinas are expected to strike and stage demonstrations at Argentina's commercial airports through Aug. 30. 

·       The US Congress continues to be on August recess.  They return to work September 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives welcoming remarks at the 2024 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, Payments, and Finance which is hosted by the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C.

·       Chile Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       USA Fed Waller Speech

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan and India will hold “2+2” talks between Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, and Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh in New Delhi.  The two countries are looking to enhance mutual security ties and defense equipment sharing.

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will visit India for talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  This is the first time Modi and Anwar have met since Anwar became prime minister.  The two are expected to sign a number of trade agreements.

·       The US and South Korea military forces will be conducting training event code-named Ulchi Freedom Shield in South Korea through August 29.  Additionally, South Korean civilians will hold evacuation drills through August 22.

·       Today is Revolution Commemoration Day in Vietnam, marking the day in 1945 when the revolution led by Ho Chi Minh ended Japanese occupation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (July)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (June)

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Deutsche Bundesbank, Foundations of Law and Finance, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management and CEPR are co-sponsoring a conference on Regulating Financial Markets in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Spain Balance of Trade (June)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Turkey Auto Production (July)/ Auto Sales (July)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (June)/ M2 Money Supply (July)/ Total Credit Growth (June)/ Total Credit Growth (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Kenya Aviation Workers Union have cancelled their plans to begin strike action to denounce an investment by India's Adani Airport Holdings that would see the group manage the operations of Nairobi's Jomo Kenyatta International Airport. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Ghana PPI (July)

Tuesday, August 20, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), as well as Libya sanctions. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Both Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign and former President Donald Trump’s campaign are expected to file financial disclosures with the Federal Election Commission revealing how much money the respective campaigns raised in July.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr participates in a discussion on cybersecurity a the Joint Financial and Banking Information Infrastructure Committee-Financial Services Sector Coordinating Council Meeting being held in Washington, D.C.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in fireside chat before hybrid "Innovating for Inclusion" forum at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Mexico Retail Sales (June)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI Median (July)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (July)

·       USA Redbook (August/17/API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/16)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The date for the ruling Japanese LDP Leadership elections will be finalized today. (they will be sometime this fall) and will determine who the next prime minister will be.  This comes after current Prime Minister Kishida's announced that he would not run for re-election in September. 

·       Ministers from Japan and its Asian neighbors gather for an Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC) meeting in Jakarta. AZEC was created by Japan in 2022 to encourage eleven partner countries to further advance carbon neutrality.  The attending nations will discuss ways to develop and spread a range of decarbonization technologies in the energy and transportation sectors. The ministerial meeting is set to be attended by Japan, Australia and members of the 10-nation ASEAN, except Myanmar.

·       The Taiwanese Air Force and Navy will hold live-fire exercises.  The event is expected to disrupt some fishing and commercial shipping off the island’s southeastern coast.

·       The 9th Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD 9) begins in Tokyo, Japan and runs through August 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (August)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August/20)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & Loan Prime Rate 5Y (August)

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

·       Taiwan Export Orders (July)/ Current Account Q2

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Union President Ursula von der Leyden delivers a speech at the groundbreaking ceremony for the European Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (ESMC) semiconductor plant – being built by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) in Dresden, Germany.   This is TSMC’s first plant in Europe and a critical component of its plant to build a global production footprint.  The plant, which is expected to cost $10.8 billion to construct, is expected to open in late 2027.  It will further solidify Dresden as a major semiconductor center as the new plant will sit next to Bosch’s semiconductor plant and close to Infineon’s plant (which is currently undergoing a $5 billion expansion).

· Today is National Day in Hungary as well as St. Stephen's Day (the patron saint of Hungary), a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (July)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (July)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)

·       Euro Area Current Account (June)/ Inflation Rate Final (July)/ Construction Output (June)/ CPI Final (July)/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q2

·       Italy Current Account (June)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (August)/ Overnight Lending Rate (August)/ Central Government Debt (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (July)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2nd Namibia Oil and Gas Conference begins in Windhoek, Namibia.  The country has become an oil exploration hotspot after large discoveries in recent years with an estimated 11 billion barrels of light oil and 2.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, August 21, 2024

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres begins series of visits in the Pacific Islands and Asia. First, he will go to Samoa (August 21 – 23) where he will meet with Prime Minister Fiamē Naomi Mataʻafa. His visit will focus on the impacts of climate change in the country. He will then go to New Zealand (August 23- 24), where he will meet with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. From there, he will go to Tonga from (August 24-27) where he will participate in the Pacific Islands Forum. He is expected to meet with the Prime Minister of Tonga, Mr. Siaosi 'Ofakivahafolau Sovaleni, as well as other leaders attending the Forum. The Secretary-General will then go to Timor-Leste (August 28 -31).  Guterres will then head to Singapore (September 1-2) where he will meet with President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Prime Minister Wong Lawrence. From there he will head to China (September 2 – 5), where he will meet with President Xi Jinping and participate in the 2024 Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Peacebuilding and sustaining peace: The New Agenda for Peace – Addressing global, regional and national aspects of conflict prevention. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (August/16)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/16)/ FOMC Minutes/

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (July)/ PPI (July)/ Raw Materials Prices (July)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (June)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan hosts the Ketagalan Security Forum.  Sponsored by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Forum.  Former Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihdo Noa, former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, and a number of other prominent political figures from around the world will also attend and speak.

·       The World Robot Conference begins in Beijing, China and runs through August 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (August)/ PPI (July)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (July)

·       Indonesia Property Price Index Q2/ Loan Growth (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (August)/ Lending Facility Rate (August)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (July)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       India M3 Money Supply (August/09)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Poland, the first time an Indian Prime Minister has visited in 40 years.  Modi is then expected (but still to be confirmed) to travel on August 23 to Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky which would be the first time an Indian Prime Minister has visited the country.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits Moldova for talks on mutual security matters and Moldova’s efforts to gain membership to the EU.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta will give a speech at the Rimini Meeting on Italian debt sustainability and economic development.

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (July)

·       Greece Current Account (June)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (July)/ Employment Growth (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ PPI (July)

·       Slovenia PPI (July)

·       Russia PPI (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (June)/ Inflation Expectations (August)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (July)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (July)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ Total Credit (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (July)

Thursday, August 22, 2024

Global

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts the Jackson Hole Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.   This year’s theme is “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.” 

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Teamsters Union has set today as the deadline to reach a new labor agreement with the Canadian National Railway and Pacific Kansas City Rail or go on strike, which would cripple shipping in Canada.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Economic Activity (June)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (August)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/17)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)/ Existing Home Sales (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/16)/ Kansas Fed Composite/ Manufacturing Index (August)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/21)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/21)/ Jackson Hole Symposium

·       Argentina Retail Sales (June)

·       Paraguay PPI (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Judo Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August/17)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/17)/ Jibun Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Current Account Q2

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (July)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The ECB releases Monetary Policy Meeting minutes

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/16)

·       France HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)

·       Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (August)

·       Poland Retail Sales (July)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (August)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (July)

·       Slovakia Current Account (June)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (July)/ Composite Economic Index (July)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)/ Private Bank Lending (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, August 23, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentine President Javier Milei will attend the Mexican chapter of the CPAP Conservative Political Action Conference in Mexico City.  Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has refused to meet with Milei because he is Milei is attending the conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will give a speech on the Economic Outlook at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Jackson Hole Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       Canada Retail Sales (June)/ Manufacturing Sales Prel (July)

·       Chile PPI (July)

·       New Home Sales (July)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/23)/ Building Permits Final (July)/ Jackson Hole Symposium

·       Mexico Current Account Q2

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (July)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·      The Japanese Committee on Financial Affairs of the House of Representatives (Lower House) and the Committee on Financial Affairs of the House of Councilors (Upper House) meet with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki to hear about the Bank’s  July rate hike and expected financial market trends.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q2

·       Japan Inflation Rate (July)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (July)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Index (June)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (July)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (August/09)/ Deposit Growth (August/09)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/16)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanual Macron begins consultations with political leaders about forming a new government and the selection of a new prime minister.  The next parliamentary session begins October 1,  but forming a new government is going to be difficult as the margins between the various political parties is slim. Outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal is serving as a caretaker until a new government is formed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (August)/ CBI Distributive Trades (August)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (July)

·       France Business Confidence (August)/ Business Climate Indicator (August)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (July)

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2

Saturday, August 24, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Ukraine Independence Day, making the day in 1991 when it gained its freedom from the Soviet Union.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a panel session "Reassessing the effectiveness and transmission of monetary policy" at Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Policy Symposium 2024 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 25, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Uruguay Independence Day, marking the day in 1828 when the country gained its independence from Portugal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Day of Songun, a national holiday in North Korea.  The day celebrates the start of the military-first rule in the nation under the leadership of Kim Jong-Il in 1948.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in panel discussion at The Rimini Meeting 2024 "Se non siamo alla ricerca dell'essenziale, allora cosa cerchiamo?" in Rimini, Italy.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The Three Biggest Events of the Week Are Not on the Calendar: Waiting and Watching in the Middle East, What Happens Next in Venezuela, and how Ukraine’s bold assault across Russia’s border in the Kursk region might change the face of the war.

August 11 - 17, 2024

It is supposed to be a quiet August, with much of the world on holiday. But, while there is not much officially scheduled this coming week, three potentially seismic events are happening this week not on the calendar.

First, Israel (and the rest of the world) continues to wait and watch for an almost assured retaliatory strike from Iran following Israel’s killing of senior Hezbollah leader, Fuad Shukr,  in Lebanon and then Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Hanihey, who was visiting Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new President, Masoud Pezeshkian.  Our view is Iran has few options on how to attack Israel without risking causing an immediate and massive escalation potentially leading to an all-out war.  In the midst of all this, negotiations being brokered by Qatar and other nations between Israel and Hamas for a ceasefire and release of the remaining Israeli and U.S. hostages appear to be closer than ever before to reaching a deal.  A new round of talks is expected this Thursday, either in Doha or Egypt.

Second, Venezuelan President Nicholás Maduro is expected to ramp up further his mass arrests of anyone who voted against him and opposes his regime in the face of the recent fraudulent election he carried out last month.  Venezuela accounts for more than 17 percent of the known existing oil reserves globally.  But the ongoing crisis caused by Maduro’s increasingly dictatorial regime and resulting economic catastrophe  has caused one of the largest displacement crises currently in the world, with close to 8 million Venezuelans fleeing the country. 

And in the midst of all this comes news that the US has held secret talks with Maduro offering him amnesty if he cedes power– offering full pardons for Maduro and his top henchmen who are currently under multiple U.S. Justice Department indictments (for Maduro, the fear is ending up like former Panamanian strongman Manuel Noriega who was captured when U.S. military forces invaded the country and arrested him. .  Noriega ended up dying in a Panamanian prison in 2017 after serving years in a U.S. “Supermax” prison in Colorado).  Maduro is unlikely to take a deal, instead seeking stronger relations with Russia, Iran, Cuba, and other rogue regimes for support.

Finally, Ukraine’s audacious military incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has shocked Russia’s leadership and population, showing how large areas of southwestern parts of Russia were left vulnerable and undefended.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared “a federal-level emergency” and ordered a rush of reinforcements.  It will be quite interesting to see how this changes the dynamics of the war but at the very least, it has doubtless left a lot of Russian’s questioning Putin’s leadership.

On the global radar screen this week, markets are gearing up for the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium (August 22-24).  There are no major central bank speeches this coming week.

Meanwhile, markets are waiting to see the release of the U.S. July CPI figures and retail sales numbers this week.  Markets are also watching for China’s July PMIs and Japan’s GDP figure for the second quarter and July PPI print.  Additionally, Beijing will publish a 70-city housing price data report, likely to provide further insight into the struggling real estate market.  India reports inflation data and trade balance numbers for July.

In Europe, the U.K. has several important data releases this week: first, employment numbers (Tuesday), then the inflation print on Wednesday, and the monthly GDP figure on Thursday.  These numbers will be the headline data releases this week.  Germany’s ZEW survey comes out this week, too, likely to give further evidence of continued economic weakness.

Below is our full report of all the major geopolitical and economic events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, August 11, 2024

Global

·       Today is the final day of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US ban on the importation of Russian uranium takes place.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India's Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will travel to the Maldives for an official visit through Aug. 11.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and Morocco will conduct the Arcane Thunder 24 military exercise in Germany and Morocco through August 16. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (June)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame will be sworn in to office after being re-elected in July.

·       Chad celebrates its Independence Day, marking when the country gained its independence from France in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 12, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on maintenance of international peace and security: Addressing the historical injustice and enhancing Africa’s effective representation in the Security Council. The Secretary-General of the United Nations will have remarks. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS).  Additionally, a Counter-Terrorism Committee (1373 Committee) of the Security Council will begin formal meeting in New York.

·       OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.

·       Today is the 75th Anniversary of the signing of the Fourth Geneva Convention, which goes to the protection of civilians in a time of war.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Canada Building Permits (June)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (July)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (July)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The liquidation hearing for Chinese developer Shimao will resume in Hong Kong.

·       Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka will visit China through August. 21.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Hauser Speech/ NAB Business Confidence (July)

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Current Account Q2

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment MAY

·       Malaysia Construction Output Q2

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q2/ PPI (July)

·       India Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Manufacturing Production (June)

·       China Vehicle Sales (July)/ New Yuan Loans (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (July)/ Total Social Financing (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will visit Russia through August 14 to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the situation in Gaza.  This is his first visit to Russia since 2021.  Abbas will then go to Turkey to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan where he will also address the Turkish Parliament.

·       Germany’s Interior Minister Nancy Faeser gives statement on security situation in Germany.  Faeser is likely to speak about airport security after climate activists were able to breach fences and disrupt air traffic in late July.

·       Russia holds its 2024 Army Forum through August 14. The Forum will focus on the “special military operation in Ukraine” showcasing the Russian Army’s weapons, promoting the sale of weapons in foreign markets.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Construction PMI (July)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (July)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (June)/ Participation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Russia Inflation Rate (July)/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Germany Current Account (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing will bring together leading academic scientists, and researchers to Alexandria, Egypt.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (June)/ Total Credit Growth (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (July)

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The inaugural East Africa Community Regional Conference on Education will take place in Arusha, Tanzania.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (July)

Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 3rd anniversary of the US evacuation of Afghanistan and the takeover of the country by the Taliban.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on the economic outlook in a moderated conversation before the Conference of African American Financial Professionals.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (July)/ PPI (July)/ Redbook (August/10)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/09)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export Prices (July)/ Import Prices (July)

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (June)

·       Japan PPI (July)/ Machine Tool Orders (July)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change & Index (August)/ Wage Price Index Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (June)/ Employment Change (June)/ Claimant Count Change (July)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (July)

·       Spain Core Inflation Rate Final (July)

·       Turkey Current Account (June)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Romania Current Account (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Unemployment Rate Q2/ Unemployed Persons Q2/ Gold Production (June)/ Mining Production (June)

Wednesday, August 14, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (August/09)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/09)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI (July)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/09)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (June)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (July)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand’s Constitution Court will decide whether to remove Prime Minister Sretha Thavasin from office for violating ethics laws by appointing a cabinet member with a criminal record.

·       Jeepney drivers in the Philippines will stage a transport strike through August 16.

·       The Island Country of Kiribati (part of the Micronesian subregion) holds parliamentary elections.  Run-off elections will be held on August 19.

·       Today is Independence Day in Pakistan.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (July)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       India WPI Food Index (July)/ WPI Fuel (July)/ WPI Inflation (July)/ WPI Manufacturing (July)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Collective Security Treaty Organization (Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and the Republic of Tajikistan) will hold the exercise "Cobalt-2024" through August 16 in Novosibirsk, Russia. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI Input & Output (July)/ Retail Price Index (July)

·       Hungary Industrial Production Final (June)

·       France Inflation Rate Final (July)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ Inflation Rate Final (July)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Current Account (June)

·       Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Euro Area Employment Change Prel Q2/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q2/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       In Switzerland, a US-mediated ceasefire talks will begin between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The African Union, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and the UN are involved as observers.

·       The Institute of Security Studies will hold an event in Pretoria, South Africa to discuss how South Africa’s unity government can manage migration.

·        The Connected Banking Summit will take place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (June)

·       Angola Inflation Rate (July)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (July)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (July)

Thursday, August 15, 2024

Global

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum will hold its Energy Ministerial Meeting in Lima, Peru, though August 16. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (June)

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem to speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Greater Louisville Inc. Regional Economic Development Update.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia' Center for the Restoration of Economic Data (CREED)" before the "From Rasters to Rows: New Methods and Applications in Automated Data Extraction" event.

·       USA Retail Sales (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (August)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (August)/ Export Prices (July)/ Import Prices (July)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (August)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/09)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (June)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (June)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/14)

·       Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ ISE Economic Activity (June)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is India Independence Day, marking the day in 1947 when Jawaharial Nehur, the first Prime Minister of India, raised the Indian flag above the Lahori Gate in Delhi.  Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to give a national speech.

·       South Korea will celebrate Liberation (or Independence) Day, a public holiday. According to Nikkei News, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is expected to make a speech outlining his vision for unification with North Korea on the occasion of the South's independence day. Yoon's administration has been openly critical of the North's human rights abuses, particularly Pyongyang's insistence on developing ever-more powerful weapons as its citizens lack basic rights.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (July)/ Food Inflation (July)

·       Japan GDP Growth Annualized Prel Q2/ Foreign Bond Investment (August/10)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/10)/ Capacity Utilization (June)/ Industrial Production Final (June)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Employment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)

·       China House Price Index (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ NBS Press Conference

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Remittances (June)

·       Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (July)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Services PMI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Liechtenstein National Day, celebrating when the Principality of Liechtenstein declared August 15 a public holiday in 1940 in response to Adolf Hitler declaring that small states had no right to exist.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ GDP (June)/ Business Investment Prel Q2/ Goods Trade Balance (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Construction Output (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (July)/ Labour Productivity Q2

·       Hungary Construction Output (June)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (July)

·       Slovakia Core Inflation Rate (July)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (June)

·       Serbia Building Permits (June)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/09)/ Budget Balance (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli negotiators will attend hostage talks in either Doha, Qatar, or Cairo, Egypt, though it is unclear whether Hamas negotiators will attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (July)/ Wholesale Prices (July)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (July)/ M1 Money Supply (June)/ M1 Money Supply (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (June)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q2

Friday, August 16, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader will be inaugurated for his second term in office. Today is also Restoration Day in in the Dominican Republic, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (June)

·       Canada Housing Starts (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (June)/ Manufacturing Sales Final (June)/ Wholesale Sales Final (June)

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austin Goolsbee participates in a fireside chat with Angeles Investors in Chicago.

·       USA Building Permits Prel (July)/ Housing Starts (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (August)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/16)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (June)/ Imports (June)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi travels to Thailand for meetings with Foreign Minister Sangiampongsa.  The two nations have enjoyed close relations in the past, but Prime Minister Sretha Thavisin has increasingly sought to broaden relations with other nations in the face of China’s slowing economy (Thailand is a major tourist destination for Chinese).  This includes moving toward better relations with the US, which were strained after a military coup in 2014 – all of which is making Beijing nervous.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (July)/ PPI Input & Output Q2

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (August)/ Tertiary Industry Index (June)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (July)

·       Malaysia Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/09)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (July)

·       Great Britain Retail Sales (July)

·       Switzerland Industrial Production Q2

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (June)

·       Serbia Current Account (June)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (July)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (July)/ GDP (July)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (June)/ SACCI Business Confidence (July)

·       Angola M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Ghana PPI (July)

Saturday, August 17, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India hosts the 3rd Global South Summit in New Delhi.  Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will chair the meetings.  More than 25 countries will be attendance – either in person or virtually and the topics will include climate change, development of alternative energy, and agricultural advancements.

·       The Indonesia Government will inaugurate Nusantara as its new capital.  It is also Indonesia Independence Day, marking when the Netherlands granted the country its freedom in 1945.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       In Zimbabwe, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit of heads of state and government  meet to discuss economic growth and development.

·       Today is Independence Day, marking when the country was granted its freedom from France in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 18, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Singapore, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong delivers the annual National Day Rally speech, his inaugural address after taking office on May 15. He is Singapore’s fourth prime minister and his becoming Prime Minister is the nation’s first leadership change in 20 years.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

July 28 - August 4, 2024

Much of the world is focused on the Olympic Games in Paris this week, while summer holidays are beginning for many in the Northern Hemisphere.  But there are still plenty of important meetings and events happening this week around the world.

Asia will be a massive focus for the U.S. this coming week as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin conduct two separate “2+2” meetings – the first with their counterparts in Japan and the second with their counterparts in the Philippines.  The two sets of meetings aim to bolster U.S. military alliances with the two countries significantly.  Before the US-Japan meetings, the U.S. Defense Department announced the very significant establishment of a new U.S. military command in Japan, one of the most important restructurings in the U.S. command structure in Asia in decades.   And then the week after next, Blinken and Austin will then host a 2+2 meeting with their Australian counterparts (August 6), further cementing the U.S.’ new enhanced security structure in the region.

Also this week, the European Union begins transferring the interest income from frozen Russian bank accounts to Ukraine.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to retaliate and is likely to confiscate Western financial assets and securities held in special accounts in Moscow. 

However, the most significant events this week came from several of the G7 central banks.  The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meets to discuss the economy and interest rate adjustments—a likely 25-basis point cut.  The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are also meeting this week to decide interest rates.  There is a good chance the Bank of Japan will raise rates while the Bank of England moves to cut rates.

Elsewhere on the global economic radar screen this week, markets will look at the U.S. jobs report on Friday, and JOLTS and ADP figures will also be released earlier in the week.   In Europe, the Eurozone, Germany, and France release GDP figures and CPI reports this week.

Finally, returning to Asia, China releases PMIs and the Caixin manufacturing PMI this week and will give some further clarity to the struggling Chinese economy. 

Below is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, July 28, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Venezuela holds presidential elections.

• Peru celebrates its Independence Day, with President Dina Boluarte scheduled to give a speech to Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The United States and Japan will hold a 2+2 meeting of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin with Japanese Foreign Minister Yōko Kamikawa and Defense Minister Minoru Kihara in Tokyo, Japan.   The meetings will focus on bolstering military cooperation between the US and Japan in the face of growing Chinese aggressive behavior in the region.  In advance of the meetings, the US Defense Department announced the creation of a new command structure in Japan, overseeing the more than 50,000 US troops in Japan and empowered to work more closely with the growing Japanese defense structure.

·       China’s Special Representative of the Chinese Government on Eurasian Affairs Li Hui will visit Brazil, South Africa, and Indonesia to conduct the fourth round of shuttle diplomacy on the War on Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q2

• Thailand Industrial Production (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni continues her state visit to China through July 31.  Meloni, who also is the chair of the G7 this year, is seeking to improve relations with China after she pulled Italy out of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend a naval parade in St. Petersburg to celebrate Russia's Navy Day. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian will be sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• President of the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste José Ramos-Horta will pay a state visit to China through July 31.

• The South African Development Community will host the 7th Annual Industrialization Week in Harare, Zimbabwe.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 29, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on Sudan

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (July)/ Gross Debt to GDP (June)/ Nominal Budget Balance (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida hosts a foreign ministers’ meeting – the 8th summit – of the Quad, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, in Tokyo.  The ministers are expected to oppose the growing militarization of the South China Sea, pledge further collaboration on preventing cyber-attacks in the region, and discuss the establishment and maintenance of resilient supply chains. The gathering will follow meetings between the Japanese, U.S., and South Korean defense ministers on Sunday and will set the stage for a Quad leaders' meeting in India later this year.

·       Today is Wallis and Futuna Territory Day, celebrating the islands becoming a French Overseas Territory in 1961.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Malaysia PPI (June)

·       Singapore Export Prices (June)/ Import Prices (June)/ PPI (June)

·       China FDI (YTD) (June)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The United Kingdom's new Labour Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will unveil a Treasury analysis highlighting the fiscal situation her government has inherited from its Conservative predecessor, and she will announce reforms to the National Planning Policy Framework.  She is expected to accuse the former Conservative Party of causing a £20 billion shortfall to the government budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (June)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (June)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (June)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (June)/ M4 Money Supply (June)/ Net Lending to Individuals (June)/ CBI Distributive Trades (July)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ Retail Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Chilean President Gabriel Boric will visit the United Arab Emirates seeking new investment and economic ties between the two countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        IMF conducts its third review in advance of issuing a third tranche worth $820 million of an Egypt loan.

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (June)/ Total Credit Growth (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (June)

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (May)/ Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Sector Credit (June)

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (June)

Tuesday, July 30, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Central African Republic (CAR) sanctions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (June)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2

·       USA Redbook (July/27)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (May)/ House Price Index (May)/ JOLTs Job Openings (June)/ CB Consumer Confidence (July)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (July)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/26)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The US and Philippines hold a 2+2 dialogue (foreign ministers and defense ministers), in Manila to discuss mutual diplomatic and security issues.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with their Filipino counterparts Defense Minister Gilbert Teodoro and Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo. The meeting comes on the heels of similar talks between Manila and Tokyo in early July. The discussions aim to bolster the U.S.-Philippine alliance, which has deepened significantly under the Marcos Jr. administration as the country shifts its foreign policy closer to Washington.

·       EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell visits Hanoi, where he will meet Vietnamese authorities to discuss foreign affairs, security and climate policy.

·       Today is Vanuatu Independence Day, marking the day in 1980 when the country gained its independence from the joint rule of the UK and France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Philippines PPI (June)

·       Australia Building Permits Prel (June)/ Private House Approvals Prel (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is expected to testify in the corruption probe of his wife, Begona Gomez.  The Spanish First Lady has been accused of influence peddling and corruption after a complaint was filed by an anti-graft NGO.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       France GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ Household Consumption (June)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2/ Inflation Rate Prel (July)/ Business Confidence (July)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (July)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (July)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (July)/ Bavaria CPI (July)/ Brandenburg CPI (July)/ Hesse CPI (July)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (July)/ Saxony CPI (July)/ Inflation Rate Prel (July)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2/ Economic Sentiment (July)/ Consumer Confidence Final (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Industrial Sentiment (July)/ Selling Price Expectations (July)/ Services Sentiment (July)

·       Greece PPI (June)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate Prel (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (June)/ Composite Economic Index (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Budget Balance (June)

Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee announces its rate decision.

·       The Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee rate-setting decision

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/26)/ ADP Employment Change (July)/ Employment Cost Index Q2/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ Chicago PMI (July)/ Pending Home Sales (June)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (July/26)/ Fed Interest Rate Decision/ Fed Press Conference

·       Brazil Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Canada GDP (May)

·       Chile Copper Production (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (June)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and the co-chairs of the US-Singapore Critical and Emerging Technology Dialogue in Singapore.  The purpose of the meeting is to “advance initiatives to strengthen ties between our innovation ecosystems and reduce barriers to collaboration while protecting national security.  The growing bilateral discussion regarding critical and emerging technologies further underscores the importance of the U.S.-Singapore strategic partnership in facilitating a free, open, connected, prosperous, secure, and resilient Indo-Pacific region.”

·       Myanmar’s military dictatorship may call an extraordinary National Defense and Security Council meeting to decide whether to extend the state of emergency (which is renewed every six months).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision.

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (June)/ Jobs to Applications ratio (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Industrial Production Prel (June)/ BoJ Interest Rate Decision/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Consumer Confidence (July)/ Housing Starts (June)/ Construction Orders (June)

·       New Zealand Building Permits (June)/ ANZ Business Confidence (July)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (July)/ Monthly CPI Indicator (June)/ Housing Credit (June)/ Inflation Rate Q2/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q2/ Retail Sales (June)/ CPI Q2/ Private Sector Credit (June)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (July)

·       China NBS General, Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (June)/ Unemployment Rate Prel Q2/ Business Confidence Q2

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (June)

·       Thailand Current Account (June)/ Private Consumption (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       India Infrastructure Output (June)/ Government Budget Value (June)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (June)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Indonesia M3 Money Supply (July/12)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Import Prices (June)/ Unemployed Persons (July)/ Unemployment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Hungary PPI (June)

·       France Inflation Rate Prel (July)/ PPI (June)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (June)/ Tourism Revenues Q2/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (May)/ Inflation Rate Prel (July)/ PPI (June)

·       Poland Inflation Rate Prel (July)

·       Spain Current Account (May)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (July)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (July)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate Flash (July)/ CPI Flash (July)

·       Greece Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Business Confidence (July)/ Real Wage Growth (May)/ Retail Sales (June)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ GDP (June)

·       Ukraine Current Account (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       South Africa Balance of Trade (June)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (July)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (June)

Thursday, August 1, 2024

Global

·       Sierra Leon assumes the chair of the UN Security Council.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        The US Democratic Party begins a virtual roll call vote window through August 7 to choose nominees for president and vice president.

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with Mongolian Foreign Minister Battsetseg Batmunkh in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

·       US tariff increases on an array of Chinese imports, including electric vehicles and their batteries, computer chips, and medical products, go into effect.

·       Guyana celebrates Emancipation Day, marking the abolition of slavery by the British Empire in 1833.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Business Confidence (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/27)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (July)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (July)/ Construction Spending (June)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders & Prices (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/26)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/31)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (June)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (July)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China celebrates China Army Day, marking the founding of the People’s Liberation Army in 1927.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nikkei is reporting an estimated 40 million to 50 million Thai citizens will be able to register for that country's long-awaited digital wallet handout. Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin's signature election pledge faced delays for nearly a year as the government sought legal ways to finance the 500-billion-baht ($14 billion) program. A distribution date in the fourth quarter has yet to be set.

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Commodity Prices (July)

·       Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/27)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (July)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Indonesia Inflation Rate (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (July)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q2/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (June)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (July)/ Wholesale Prices (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Union will transfer the tranche of interest earned in frozen Russian accounts to Ukraine.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to retaliate.

·       Today is the 80th anniversary of the start of the Warsaw Uprising, when the city’s residents tried to oust the German army before it was occupied by the advancing Soviet forces.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee announces its interest rate decision.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will participate in an online Q&A on the UK economy and bank policies. 

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ BoE Interest Rate Decision/ Monetary Policy Report/ MPC Vote Cut/ MPC Vote Hike/ MPC Vote Unchanged/ MPC Meeting Minutes

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (May)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (July)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/26)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)/ New Car Sales (July)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Greece HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Euro Area Unemployment Rate (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigerian youth activists are planning a nationwide anti-government protest through August 10.  Calling it “Ten Days of Rage,” the protests are over ongoing economic hardships.

·       Today is Benin Independence Day, celebrating the country’s independence from France in 1960.

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (July)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (July)

Friday, August 2, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (July)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (June)/ Gross Fixed Investment (May)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Factory Orders (June)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/02)/ Total Vehicle Sales (July)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (July)

·       Australia Home Loans (June)/ Investment Lending for Homes (June)/ PPI Q2

·       Thailand Business Confidence (July)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/26)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Republic Day in North Macedonia, commemorating the Illinden Uprising and the first assembly of the anti-fascist Assembly for the National Liberation of Macedonia in the midst of World War II in 1944.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania PPI (June)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (July)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       France Industrial Production (June)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

·       Italy Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (June)

·       Turkey Auto Production (July)/ Auto Sales (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, August 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       A six-month cease-fire between Colombia and the rebel group National Liberation Army is set to expire.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 4, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Cooks Islands Constitution Day, celebrating their independence from European colonial rule.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report

The Global Week Ahead

• July 7 - 14, 2024

Four major geopolitical events  unfold this coming week, which we believe will be of significant focus and interest to global markets. 

First, the 75th NATO Summit in Washington, D.C., takes place this week.  The ongoing debate over President Biden's re-election bid adds a layer of complexity to the summit, where the leaders of the NATO member states will convene to deliberate on crucial issues, particularly the strategy for supporting Ukraine in the future.  The potential inclusion of Ukraine in NATO will be a pivotal point of discussion, underscoring the summit's significance.  

In addition, several Indo-Pacific leaders will be joining the meeting as NATO is expected to outline new plans on how to work more closely with Australia, Japan, and South Korea – something which is not playing well with China, Russia, or North Korea.

The second significant event his week is Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi traveling to Moscow to participate in a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.   This is Modi's first bilateral visit since being re-elected to a third term as India's Prime Minister.  Traditionally, Indian Prime Ministers make their first visits to one of India's neighbors.  However, Modi, who recently skipped the 2024 Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting Kazakhstan and India-China relations remain tense, is looking to balance China's growing relationship with Russia.  The two leaders are expected to discuss expanding economic ties and purchasing Russian military hardware.

The third major event this week is the second round of French parliamentary elections.  Following last week's near outright majority results for the far-right National Rally Party headed by Marine Le Pen, French far-left parties have been working with French President Emmanual Macron's centrist alliance to find a way to ensure Le Pen does not get that outright majority via the second round of voting – and, according to pollsters, it looks like they may have succeeded.

The fourth major event is what President Biden will do as a growing chorus of Democratic members of Congress and other Democratic leaders call for him to stand down from his re-election bid against former President Biden.  As of this writing, Biden is insistent he will not withdraw because of physical and cognitive issues.  However, the pressure seems to be mounting by the hour and the day, and most Washington observers believe it is highly likely he will have to withdraw, perhaps immediately after the NATO Summit.

Looking to the global economic radar screen this week, markets will be watching closely as Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies twice before Congress – before the Senate Banking Committee and before the House Financial Services Committee – giving the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report.  Also this week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testifies on the state of the international financial system. 

In terms of economic reports, the US CPI report will be of major focus this Thursday, and the PPI is out Friday.  Additionally, the University of Michigan consumer survey is out Friday.

Looking at Asia, China releases its monthly inflation print on Wednesday, while Japanese wage figures, PPI figures, and the trade balance will be of particular focus to markets. 

Moving to Europe, the U.K. monthly GDP report will be watched closely as the new Labour Majority takes power in Parliament.

Below is what else we are watching closely this week around the world this coming week:

Sunday, July 7, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visits Tajikistan.

·       Vanuatu Prime Minister Prime Minister Charlot Salwai travels to Beijing for meetings through July 12.

·       Belarus Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhenkov travels to Beijing for meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

·       Tokyo holds gubernatorial elections.

·       Today is Independence Day in the Solomon Islands. The country gained its independence from the UK in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France holds the second round of parliamentary elections.

·       In Pamplona, Spain the annual Running of the Bulls takes place.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Leaders’ Summit begins in Abuja, Nigeria.  In advance of the meetings, the military regimes of Niger, Mali, and Burkino Faso have announced they are quitting the organization “permanently.”

·       Today is Saba Saba Day in Tanzania, celebrating the unification of the country and its independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 8, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), followed by consultations.

·       The UN’s International Maritime Organization meets in London through July 12.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The 64th Mercosur and Associated States Summit begins in Asunción, Paraguay.  Leaders from the five full member countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay) along with the associated member countries (Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru).  Argentine President Javier Milei is going to skip the meeting to avoid having to meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula), whom he has called “an angry communist” and “corrupt.”  Milei is sending his foreign minister, Diana Mondino, instead.  But in an act further enraging Lula, Milei is scheduled to travel to Brazil to meet with Lula’s political opponent, Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chile Inflation Rate YoY JUN/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade JUN

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations JUN/ Consumer Credit Change MAY/ Used Car Prices YoY JUN

·       Colombia Inflation Rate YoY JUN

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan and the Philippines are scheduled to hold high-level talks between their respective foreign ministers and defense ministers in Manila.  It is expected a deal will be reached allowing each nation’s defense forces to visit each other’s territory  - via a Reciprocal Access Agreement – and conduct coordinated drills, further deepening defense cooperation.

·       Chinese Premier Li Qiang will host Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in China through July 10.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings YoY MAY/ Overtime Pay YoY MAY/ Current Account MAY/ Bank Lending YoY JUN

·       Australia Home Loans MoM MAY/ Investment Lending for Homes MAY

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves JUN

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves JUN

·       Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves JUN

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi travels to Russia for a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.  This is traditionally an annual summit but since the War on Ukraine was launched by Putin, there has been questions about the future of Russia-Indian relations.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Competitiveness Ministers (Internal market and industry) in Budapest, Hungary through July 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Jonathan Haskel gives a speech at Kings College.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Data Analytics Transformation/Chief Data Officer James Benford gives a speech at the FCA Data Innovation for Future of Regulation (DiFoR) Conference in London.

·       Ireland Construction PMI JUN

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade MAY

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Final Q1

·       France Current Account MAY/ Foreign Exchange Reserves JUN

·       Greece Balance of Trade MAY

·       Turkey Auto Production YoY JUN/ Auto Sales YoY JUN

·       Hungary Budget Balance JUN

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

CIA Director Bill Burns is expected to travel to Qatar to join negotiations over the Gaza hostage situation and a possible breakthrough on a ceasefire.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence JUN/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply YoY MAY/ Private Bank Lending YoY MAY

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves JUN

Tuesday, July 9, 2024

Global

·       The G7 Science and Technology Ministers will meet in Bolognia and Forlí, Italy, through July 11.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. President Joe Biden will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington.

·       Today, Argentina celebrates Independence Day, celebrating the day in 1816 when the country declared its independence from Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will deliver the Semimanual Monetary Policy Report to Congress before the Senate Banking Committee.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives a speech entitled “Financial Inclusion: Past, Present, and Hopes for the Future” at the Financial Inclusion Practices and Innovation Conference in Washington,

·       Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will present the annual testimony to Congress on the state of the international financial system before the House Financial Services Committee.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech entitled “Promoting an Inclusive Financial System” at the Financial Inclusion Practices and Innovation Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index JUN/ Redbook YoY JUL/ Fed Barr Speech/ Fed Chair Powell Testimony/ Fed Bowman Speech/ API Crude Oil Stock Change JUL/ Treasury Secretary Yellen Testimony

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence JUN/ Inflation Rate YoY JUN/ Auto Exports YoY JUN/ Auto Production YoY JUN/ Core Inflation Rate YoY JUN

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thai Minister of Foreign Affairs Maris Sangiampongsa will visit China through July 10.

·       Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele makes an official visit to China through July 15.  China has been eager to establish stronger economic and military ties with the island nation in the hoping of using its port to support Chinese naval operations.

·       Today is Palau Constitution Day, celebrating the day when the country passed a new constitution modeled on the US Constitution.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change JUL

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate MAY/ Industrial Production YoY MAY

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade JUN

·       China Vehicle Sales YoY JUN

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales YoY JUN

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 75th Anniversary NATO Summit begins in Washington, D.C., and runs through July 11.  The main topics for discussion will be Ukraine’s prospects for joining NATO, how to continue supporting Ukraine’s war efforts, and how to deal with Russia.  In addition, NATO is planning to release its first joint document on expanding cooperation with Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea.

·       The new UK Parliament meets for the first time since last week’s elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give a video message at a digital euro event organized by the Central Bank of Cyprus.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Payments Victoria Cleland gives a speech on the Financial Stability Board, Regulatory Oversight Committee, and Global LEI Foundation Conference in London.

·       Bank of England Executive Director, Insurance Supervision Gareth Truran gives a speech at the Insurance Asset Risk Webinar.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY JUN

·       Hungary Inflation Rate YoY JUN

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade MAY

·       Greece Inflation Rate YoY JUN

·       Ireland Industrial Production YoY MAY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, July 10, 2024

Global

·       OPEC releases its Monthly Oil Market Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Bogota, Colombia, preparatory hearings begin in the trial of ex-president Alvaro Uribe, accused of bribing witnesses and fraud.

·       The Bahamas celebrates Independence Day, marking the date when the country gained its independence from the UK in 1973.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will deliver the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress before the House Financial Services Committee.

·       Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “Global Inflation and Monetary Policy Challenges” at the 2024 Australian Conference of Economists, Adelaide, South Australia.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index JUL/05/ MBA Purchase Index JUL/05/ Fed Chair Powell Speech/ Wholesale Inventories MAY/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change JUL/05

·       Brazil Inflation Rate YoY JUN

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade JUN

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade MAY

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate YoY JUN

·       Peru Balance of Trade MAY

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals YoY MAY/ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate JUN

·       Japan PPI YoY JUN/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook JUN

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade MAY

·       Australia Building Permits MoM Final MAY/ Private House Approvals MoM Final MAY/ RBA Simon Speech

·       China Inflation Rate YoY JUN/ PPI YoY JUN

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence JUN

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate MAY

·       India M3 Money Supply YoY JUN/28

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill gives a speech at Asia House in London.

·       Romania Balance of Trade MAY

·       Slovakia Industrial Production YoY MAY

·       Turkey Industrial Production YoY MAY/ Unemployment Rate MAY/ Participation Rate MAY

·       Italy Industrial Production YoY MAY

·       Slovenia Industrial Production YoY MAY

·       Greece Industrial Production YoY MAY

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate YoY JUN

·       Russia Inflation Rate YoY JUN

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The International Monetary Fund will discuss Egypt's Extended Fund Facility for its third review.

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production YoY MAY

·       Jordan Inflation Rate YoY JUN

·       Israel Consumer Confidence JUN

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate YoY JUN

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate YoY JUN

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate YoY JUN

Thursday, July 11, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations.

·       The International Energy Administration releases its monthly Oil Market Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta CEO & President Raphael Bostic will give the keynote “Call to Action” speech at the National Credit Union Administration’s DEI Summit 2024 in Minneapolis, Minnesota.  

·       Brazil Retail Sales YoY MAY

·       USA Inflation Rate YoY JUN/ CPI JUN/ Initial Jobless Claims JUL/06/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change JUL/05/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Monthly Budget Statement JUN/ Fed Balance Sheet JUL/10

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence JUN

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Beijing, the China International Development Cooperation Agency holds the 2nd Conference of the Forum on Global Action for Shared Development through July 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Food Inflation YoY JUN

·       Japan Machinery Orders YoY MAY/ Foreign Bond Investment JUL/06/ Stock Investment by Foreigners JUL/06/ Machine Tool Orders YoY JUN

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations JUL

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment APR

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence JUN

·       Malaysia Retail Sales YoY MAY/ Interest Rate Decision

·       China New Yuan Loans JUN/ M2 Money Supply YoY JUN/ Outstanding Loan Growth YoY JUN/ Total Social Financing JUN

·       Sri Lanka PPI YoY MAY

·       Indonesia Car Sales YoY JUN

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Environmental Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through July 12.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance JUN/ GDP YoY MAY/ Goods Trade Balance MAY/ Industrial Production YoY MAY/ Manufacturing Production YoY MAY/ Balance of Trade MAY/ Construction Output YoY MAY/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker JUN

·       Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final JUN

·       Romania Inflation Rate YoY JUN

·       Slovakia Construction Output YoY MAY

·       Turkey Retail Sales YoY MAY/ Foreign Exchange Reserves JUL/05

·       Ireland Inflation Rate YoY JUN

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Belarus Inflation Rate YoY JUN

·       Russia Current Account Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production YoY MAY/ Mining Production YoY MAY/ Manufacturing Production YoY MAY

Friday, July 12, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on draft resolutions concerning BINUH - United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti, and UNMHA - UN Mission to support the Hudaydah Agreement. Afterwards, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS) followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI JUN/ Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY JUN

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade JUN

·       Malaysia Industrial Production YoY MAY

·       Japan Capacity Utilization MAY/ Industrial Production Final MAY

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, July 13, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Sovereignty Day in Montenegro, celebrating when the Berlin Congress recognized the nation as independent in 1878.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 14, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Bastille Day in France, celebrating the end of the French monarchy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

June 30 - July 7, 2024

Elections are again dominant on the global stage this coming week.  As of this writing, the French far-right National Rally Party, led by Marine Le Pen, has scored a massive victory in parliamentary elections.  A run-off election will be held next Sunday to determine how significant the margin of victory will be.  But it appears it will be just short of an outright majority as French President Emmanuel Macron’s alliance of centrist parties are looking to potentially form an alliance with the far-left bloc to blunt the National Rally’s power in parliament.

Also this week,  the UK holds parliamentary elections this Thursday .  Looking at polls, the Labor Party is positioned to score a massive win – perhaps by the biggest margins in UK history.  The Economist is estimating Labor could win as many as 434 seats – far more than the 334 seats needed to hold a majority.  The Conservatives could shrink to as little as 106 seats from their current 365 seats.

But the most watched election-related event this week is not an actual vote but rather what President Biden will do after his disastrous debate performance.  We do not believe President Biden will withdraw despite growing pressure, as most senior Democratic leaders (former Presidents Obama and Clinton, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, etc.) have rallied to support the President staying in the race.  However, the debate over the President’s mental and physical abilities and whether he should stand down will not go away any time soon and will likely intensify as Republicans get ready for the Republican Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 15.

Elsewhere in the world, the EU is set to make a significant decision this week.  The EU will formally select its next Commission President, with current President Ursula von der Leyden likely to retain her position.  This decision comes at a crucial time as Hungary, a long-standing antagonist of EU policies (especially its support for Ukraine), assumes the six-month chair of the European Union.  EU leaders are actively strategizing to counter Hungary's potential efforts to implement policies that could undermine current EU's consensus policies.

We also note another change taking place this week  in another important chair: At the United Nations today, Russia takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of July.

On the global economic radar screen, the big event this week will be the European Central Banks Conference, which will be held in Sintra, Portugal.  Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell and several other major central bank chiefs will be there, too, speaking on panels and likely giving important insights on global economic policy.

In the US, markets will look to the Fed releasing the June FOMC meeting minutes and the JOLTs and ADP data on Tuesday and Wednesday, leading into the overall jobs numbers report on Friday.  Looking at Europe, Germany, Italy, France, and Spain release CPI reports.  In Asia, China releases June PMIs and the Caixin indices, which will give a clearer indication of whether the country's growth is returning to normal.  And Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, and Taiwan are due to release their June inflation reports.

Below is everything else we are watching happening around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, June 29, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·      Uruguay will hold primary elections ahead of its Oct. 27 general election

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (June)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (June)/ NBS General PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The First Round of parliamentary voting begins in France.

·       Belgium’s six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union ends.  Hungary takes the chair tomorrow, July 1.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Qatar will host the third U.N.-led meeting of special envoys to Afghanistan in Doha through July 1, and the Afghan Taliban will attend.

·       Egypt will host the Egypt-EU Investment Conference in Cairo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q1/ M3 Money Supply YoY MAY/ Private Bank Lending YoY MAY

·       Israel Composite Economic Index MoM MAY

Monday, July 1, 2024

Global

·       Russia assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council for the month of July.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Panama will inaugurate Jose Raul Mulino as president.

·       In Mexico, judicial branch workers are expected to go on strike to show their opposition to President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s legal reform plan that would make all judges elected positions.

·       The US Congress is out this week for the Independence Day holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Business Confidence JUN

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity YoY MAY

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Balance of Trade JUN/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ ISM Manufacturing PMI JUN/ ISM Manufacturing Employment JUN/ Construction Spending MAY

·       Colombia Business Confidence MAY

·       El Salvador Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

·       Peru Inflation Rate YoY JUN

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong marks 27 years since it was returned to Chinese rule.  Meanwhile, on the mainland, Monday is the first anniversary of an updated counterespionage law that expanded the definition of spying and gave authorities sweeping new powers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final JUN/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM JUN/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM JUN

·       South Korea Exports/ Imports/ Balance of Trade JUN

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Inflation Rate YoY JUN/ Tourist Arrivals YoY MAY

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final JUN/ Consumer Confidence JUN

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Business Confidence Q2/ Consumer Confidence Q2

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Singapore Bank Lending MAY

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final JUN

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Inflation Rate YoY JUN

·       Thailand Retail Sales YoY APR

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate YoY JUN/ Wholesale Prices YoY JUN/ Balance of Trade JUN

·       Sri Lanka Current Account Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Hungary assumes the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU.

·       The First payment to Ukraine of Russa’s windfall profits made from frozen Russian assets in the European Union are expected to be made.

·       Armenia and Azerbaijan will submit work regulations to their governments for approval to resume operation of the bilateral border demarcation commission.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory speech at the opening reception of the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence JUN/ AIB Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Prel JUN

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Consumer Confidence Q2

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices YoY JUN/ BoE Consumer Credit MAY/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final JUN/ M4 Money Supply MoM MAY/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending MAY

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final APR/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Switzerland Retail Sales YoY MAY

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI JUN/ ECB Forum on Central Banking

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY JUN/ Bavaria CPI YoY JUN/ Brandenburg CPI YoY JUN/ Hesse CPI YoY JUN/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY JUN/ Saxony CPI YoY JUN/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel JUN

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Unemployment Rate MAY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.N. ban on Iranian production of IR-6 and IR-8 centrifuges will expire.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply YoY MAY

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI JUN

Tuesday, July 2, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell will participate in a policy panel discussion at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking 2024, Sintra, Portugal.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Thailand, election authorities will announce the names of 200 new senators who passed a final round of scrutiny, after an obscure process in which 20 professional groups nominated and voted for their peers without input from the general public. While the new Senate will not have a say in future votes for prime minister it will maintain oversight of the executive

branch and a role in appointing members of independent organizations such as the election and anti-corruption commissions. Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q2/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q2

·       South Korea Inflation Rate YoY JUN

·       Philippines PPI YoY MAY

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden is expected to be formally chosen for another term.

·       In the Italian city of Siena, the Il Palio bareback horse race - where riders race each other through the center of the city – takes place.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos chairs Session 1 "The rise and fall of inflation in the euro area – past, present and future" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson chairs Session 2 "The economics of biodiversity at ECB Forum on Central Banking" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

·       European Central bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel chairs Panel 1 "Geopolitical shocks and inflation" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, July 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Grenada hosts a the 47th Regular Meetings of the Conference of CARICOM (Leaders from Caribbean Community). 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate on “Panel 2: Drivers of Equilibrium Interest Rates" before hybrid European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2024.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization meets in Kazakhstan.  The Organization is a China-led grouping considered part of Beijing's effort to promote an alternative world order. But there is no shortage of friction between the nine full members, which include India and Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and several Central Asian states.  However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not expected to attend.

·       Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Chinh will travel to Seoul, South Korea to meet with Prime Minister Han Duck-soo.  Chinh will also meet with business leaders to encourage further investment in Vietnam.

·       Indonesia's Ministry of National Development Planning hosts the Green Economy Expo in Jakarta from Wednesday to Friday. The CEO of energy giant Pertamina and the head of fertilizer maker Pupuk Indonesia are among those expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos chairs of Session 3 "Monetary Policy Cycles" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs Session 4, "Euro area productivity in the short and long-run," at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane chairs Panel 2 "Drivers of equilibrium interest rates" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives closing remarks at ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The BlueInvest Africa event, organized by the European Commission, begins in Diani, Kenya, to discuss opportunities in the “blue economy” – maritime and coastal sectors and interior waterways.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, July 4, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in the United States.  Financial markets banks, and the government are closed so we can celebrate our freedom.

·       Ecuador's United Workers Front union will march in opposition to the end of fuel subsidies.

·       The political campaign period for the July 28 presidential election in Venezuela will begin.

·        Argentine President Javier Milei will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China (to be confirmed)

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The World Artificial Intelligence Conference begins in Shanghai, China.  The state-backed four-day event will showcase the latest technology under the theme "Governing AI for Good and for All."

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The United Kingdom holds parliamentary elections. The Labour Party is widely expected to sweep the elections.

·       The European Union's provisional tariffs on China's electric vehicles are due to take effect, barring an 11th-hour deal between the two sides. Europe in mid-June said it would slap additional duties of up to 38% on imported cars deemed to have been unfairly subsidized by the Chinese state. But the move has stirred concerns over potential retaliation, with major auto exporter Germany pushing for a compromise.

·       Today is the deadline for the European Commission to decide on a proposed acquisition by Lufthansa of a minority stake in Italy’s state-owned ITA Airways.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the Master in Economics and Finance (MEF) 2024 Lecture at the University of Naples Federico II in Naples, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in the 28th Annual Economist Government Roundtable in Athens, Greece.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote speech at the 15th edition of the National Statistics Conference in Rome, Italy.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, July 5, 2024 

Global

·       The 100th Anniversary of the Paris Olympic Games opening ceremony is today where the modern games are being held. This year’s Olympics begin on July 26 and run through August 11.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to give keynote before the 4th Suresh Tendulkar Memorial Lecture event organized by the Reserve Bank of India.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, will give a press conference at the NATO Headquarters in Brussels, to preview the NATO Summit in Washington DC.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an 0n-stage conversation at the 24th edition of Les Rencontres Economiques d'Aix-en-Provence 2024 "Relier les mondes" in Aix-en-Provence, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives introductory remarks followed by Q&A on a panel entitled "Embedding data culture in supervision" at Data Innovation for Future of Regulation (DIFoR) Conference organized by the Financial Conduct Authority in London, UK.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran holds the second round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, July 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Tokyo votes to elect its next governor, bringing an end to a two-week race between incumbent Yuriko Koike, backed by Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, and her main challenger, Renho Saito, endorsed by the opposition. Over 11.5 million Tokyoites are registered to vote, and a record 56 candidates are on the ballot. The winner will hold the job for four years and oversee Japan's largest municipal budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In London, the National March for Palestine organized by the Stop the War coalition takes place.  Organizers expect at least 100,000 people to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 7, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France holds the second round of parliamentary elections.

·       In Pamplona, Spain the annual Running of the Bulls takes place.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

The Global Week Ahead

June 16 - 23, 2024

Last week was a busy week with the G7 Leaders' Summit and the Ukraine Peace Conference in Switzerland. This week will be less busy, but several important geopolitical events are worthwhile for the markets to watch closely. 

Of particular note, Russian President Vladimir Putin is embarking on two rare international trips, a deviation from his usual schedule since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest.  His first stop is North Korea, marking his first visit since 2000, to discuss ongoing arms deals.  North Korea, in a show of support for Russia's War on Ukraine, is reportedly selling large quantities of ammunition to Russia, estimated to be more than 5 million artillery shells.  From there, Putin will travel to Vietnam for trade discussions and, potentially, another weapons deal.

Also this week, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell travel to India for the first meetings between US and Indian officials since India's recent election.  They are expected to discuss further advanced security technology cooperation between the two nations.

Meanwhile, German Economics Minister Robert Holbeck travels to China to discuss China-EU trade issues.  Last week, the EU slapped 28 percent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle (EV) imports and is looking to apply similar tough tariffs on Chinese wind and solar exports, moves that have enraged Beijing.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, markets are likely to be most focused on economic data releases coming from the US and China. The US releases retail sales and industrial production data. There are also quite a few Federal Reserve Presidents speaking this week. China will announce its 1-year MLF rate decision and other key data releases later in the week.

Elsewhere, the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Swiss National Bank all meet on interest rates.

Below are all the other major political and economic events taking place around the world we are watching this week:

Sunday, June 16, 2024

Global

·        The Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha (one of the two main holidays celebrated in Islam) is celebrated through June 20.  Financial markets are closed in most Muslim countries.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 17, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden will host NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.  The Secretary General is visiting Washington through June 20 and will also meet with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and House and Senate leaders.  He will then travel to Canada to meet

·       The US Department of Agriculture’s agribusiness conducts its first trade mission on Native Nations agricultural products takes place in Vancouver, Canada.

·       The House of Representatives is out of session this week in observation of Juneteenth federal holiday.  House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and other senior Republican Party figures will travel to Florida to meet former President Donald Trump.

·       In Bolivia, protesters are expected to march against shortages of fuel and U.S. dollars, blocking roads and creating border closures.

·       The Russian Naval fleet that conducted military drills in Cuba will conclude its activities.

·       In Argentina, today is the Commemoration of General Don Martín Miguel De Güemes Day, a public holiday. De Güemes is considered a hero of freedom and “the hero of the Gauchos.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives acceptance remarks at the 2024 Marshall Medal Forum: A US-UK Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Chicago.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker gives a speech at the Global Interdependence Center’s 42nd Annual Monetary and Trade Conference

·       Canada Housing Starts (May)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (April)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (June)/ NOPA Crush Report/

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Chinese Premier Li Qiang make joint remarks to the media after a signing ceremony in Canberra.  Li’s visit concludes tomorrow.

·       New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will visit Japan to meet with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. This is Luxon's first visit to Japan since he took the job in November. The two leaders are expected to discuss expanding trade ties and business cooperation, and exchange views on the increasingly contested geopolitical situation in the Indo-Pacific region.

·       China and South Korea hold a 2+2 Security Talks in Seoul.  

·       Pakistan's government will observe a three-day public holiday through June 19 for the Muslim holiday Eid al-Adha.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (May)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (April)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (May)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)

·       China House Price Index (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ NBS Press Conference

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France begins the first official day of the parliamentary election campaign.

·       There will be an informal leader meeting of the European Council.  EU leaders will discuss the next institutional cycle. The European Council is central in designating the next high-profile EU-level roles, namely: electing the President of the European Council, nominating the President of the European Commission, and appointing the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

·       The EU Environmental Council meets.  They are scheduled to reach a general agreement on the approach for the waste framework directive and also try to reach a general approach on the Green Claims Directive.

·       Today is Iceland Independence Day, marking the day in 1944 the country gained its independence from Denmark.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks followed by Q&A at a seminar organized by the Universidad Internacional Menendez Pelayo and Asociación de Periodistas de Information Econónomica (APIE) in Santander, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in an on-stage conversation and Q&A at Reuters Newsmakers event in London, United Kingdom.

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Italy Inflation Rate Final (May)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (April)

·       Euro Area Labour Cost Index Final Q1/ Wage Growth Q1/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (April)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account Q1/ M1 Money Supply (May)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)

Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Sudan. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan travel to New Delhi, India for meetings with India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval.  They are expected to discuss technology cooperation and the U.S.-India Initiative on Critical Emerging Technology (iCET) launched in January 2023.

·       Argentine President Javier Milei will visit Prague, Czech Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler give a speech on  “The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to participate in an MNI Webcast discussion.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in"Economic and Monetary Policy" panel before hybrid 2024 Marshall Forum.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem to speak at CFA Society St. Louis luncheon.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to participate in moderated question-and-answer session before the Headliners Club Speaker Series in Austin, Texas.

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q1/ Private Spending Q1

·       USA Retail Sales (May)/ Redbook (June/15)/ Capacity Utilization (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs/Net Long-term TIC Flows (April)/ Foreign Bond Investment (April)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/14)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (April)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin travels to North Korea for meetings with Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang.  The two leaders are expected to discuss additional military arms deals (North Korea is selling significant amounts of ammunition to Russia to assist them in their war on Ukraine).

·       Thailand is quickly moving toward a political crisis as the government is expected to indict former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra for allegedly violating the country's law against insulting the monarchy and for a computer crime.  Additionally, the Constitutional Court will hear a case to dissolve the country’s main opposition party, the Move Forward Party and hear a case seeking the ouster of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin for appointing a convicted felon to his Cabinet.

·       China will officially mark its 618 online Shopping Festival, though early shopping is already ongoing.

·       South Korean doctors will strike to protest medical school admittance reforms.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Reserve Bank Governor Connolly Speech/ Reserve Bank’s Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       Singapore Balance of Trade (May)

·       China FDI (YTD) (May)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing & Services PMI (May)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (June/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council (Cohesion) will meet in Brussels. Ministers will exchange views on the link between cohesion policy and the EU strategic agenda for 2024-2029, set to be adopted by the European Council at its meeting on 27 and 28 June 2024.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Transport) will meet in Brussels.  They are expected to agree the Council’s position (‘general approach’) on the following legislative files concerning maritime safety and inland waterways, respectively:  the new regulation on the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) and the revised directive on river information services (RIS).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       There is a non-monetary policy meeting (virtual) of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindo speaks at a joint conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank on European Financial Integration in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs Session 2  -"A single EU financial markets supervision - Approaches and potential benefits" at the joint conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank on European Financial Integration in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate Final (May)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June)/ CPI Final (May)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June)/ ZEW Current Conditions (June)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (June)/ Inflation Report/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Belarus GDP (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Seychelles Constitution Day, marking the day in 1993 when a referendum was held making the country a multi-party democracy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US celebrates Juneteenth National Independence Day, marking the day when enslaved people in Galveston, Texas, finally learned they were free two years after the Emancipation Proclamation had been issued.  It is a national holiday.  Banks and financial markets are closed.

·       Today is Artigas Day in Uruguay, a national holiday.  It marks the birthday of José Gervasio Artigas, who is considered the father of Uruguayan nationhood.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NAHB Housing Market Index (June)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

·       Canada BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       Argentina Unemployment Rate Q1/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Premier Li Qiang arrives in Malaysia on the next stage of an eight-day visit to the region.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Vietnam.  The US Government has rebuked Vietnam for visit.  Putin and Vietnamese leaders are expected to discuss trade, energy, and weapons deals.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Reuters Tankan Index (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Australia RBA Chart Pack

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       New Zealand Current Account Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI Input & Output (May)/ Retail Price Index (May)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ Current Account (April)/ Construction Output (April)/ Eurogroup Meeting

·       Italy Current Account (April)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (April)

·       Russia PPI (May)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (April)/ Total Credit (April)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will be inaugurated for a second term.  Ramaphosa gained the seat after striking a deal with the opposition parties following a weak electoral outcome.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q1

Thursday, June 20, 2024

Global

·       Today is the Summer Solstice, the longest day of the year in the northern hemisphere, is also considered the first day of summer for that half of the world.

·       In the morning, the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of international peace and security: Cybersecurity. The Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak before the Risk Management Association in Richmond, Virginia.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/14)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/14)/ Current Account Q1/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/15)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (June)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (June)/Philly Fed CAPEX Index (June)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (June/14)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (April)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (May)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Tokyo, the campaign to become the next governor of Tokyo (which is the world’s biggest city) begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/15)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/15)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (June)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Final Q1

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Indonesia Lending Facility Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (June)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (May)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup (EU finance ministers and central bankers) will meet in Luxembourg.  They are expected to discuss IMF Article IV review of euro area policies, the international role of the euro with regard to stocktaking, and various other issues.

·       Arnold Schwarzenegger hosts his annual climate conference, the Austrian World Summit, in Vienna.  Speakers include European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and UN secretary-general António Guterres.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Social Policy) meets in Brussels.  The Council will seek to agree its negotiating position on a proposed directive amending the existing rules on European Works Councils, which represent workers in large multinational companies operating in at least two EU or European Economic Area (EEA) countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (May)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (May)/ SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area ECB General Council Meeting/ Consumer Confidence Flash (June)/ Ecofin Meeting

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (June)/ Auto Production & Sales (May)/ Budget Balance (May)/ Central Government Debt (May)

·       Greece Current Account (April)

·       Italy Construction Output (April)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (May)/ Employment Growth (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ PPI (May)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Serbia Current Account (April)

·       Great Britain BoE Interest Rate Decision/ BoE MPC Vote Cut/ BoE MPC Vote Hike/ BoE MPC Vote Unchanged/ MPC Meeting Minutes

·       Belarus Industrial Production (May)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (May)/ Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (May)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (April)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Martyrs’ Day in Eritrea, commemorating those who died in fighting for freedom between 1961 and 1991 when the country finally gained its independence from Ethiopia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (April) 

Friday, June 21, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentine President Javier Milei will receive an award from the Juan Mariana Institute in Madrid, Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Economic Activity (April)

·       Canada PPI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Raw Materials Prices (May)

·       USA S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)/ Existing Home Sales (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June/14)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June/21)

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (May)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan's opposition-controlled legislature is scheduled to hold another vote on a controversial bill that would strengthen parliamentary powers and, critics say, undermine President Lai Ching-te. The bill was already passed by the Kuomintang-Taiwan People's Party alliance, but Lai's Democratic Progressive Party government sent it back to parliament for reconsideration.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (May)

·       Australia Judo Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (May)/ Jibun Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (May)/ HSBC Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Bank Loan Growth (June/07)/ Deposit Growth (June/07)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/14)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (May)

·       Hong Kong Current Account Q1/ Inflation Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck will travel to Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou, China, through June 23.  Habeck is expected to discuss the EU’s tough new 38.1 percent tariffs on Electric Vehicles (EVs) and other trade measures the EU has taken against China.

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  The Ministers will exchange views on the state of play of the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), Russia’s war on Ukraine, tax policy, and an update on various financial services issues.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Health) meets in Luxembourg.  The ministers are expected to discuss ways forward for the regulatory incentives set out in the revision of the EU’s pharmaceutical legislation. The package aims to ensure the quality, safety and efficacy of medicines for EU patients and to harmonies the internal market.  They will also adopt a recommendation for setting out new measures on vaccine-preventable cancers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel on the occasion of the conferral of the Weltwirtschaftlicher Preis 2024 to her by the Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft in Kiel, Germany.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (May)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (April)

·       France Business Confidence (June)/ HCOB Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)

·       Germany HCOB Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)

·       Euro Area HCOB Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (June)/ PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (May)

·       Slovakia Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Private Bank Lending (May)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (May)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (May)/ Total Credit Growth (May)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Martyr’s Day in Toga, commemorating those who died fighting for the countries freedom which the country won in throwing off a dictatorship in 2005.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q1/ PPI (May)

Saturday, June 22, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako arrive in the UK ahead of a state visit running into next week.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Chad holds phase 2 of the presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 23, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The 10th SelectUSA Investment Summit takes place in Washington, D.C.  The Summit is the highest-profile event encouraging foreign direct investment into the US.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Thailand New Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Italy holds run-off municipal elections.

·       Today is the 8th anniversary of the Brexit vote in the UK.

·       Today is Luxembourg National Day, celebrating the official birthday of the ruler of Luxembourg.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

June 2 - 9, 2024

This is the week of big election results, which will have a big impact on markets. Mexico, India, and the European Parliament all have elections this week. The outcome in two of them—Mexico and India—is pretty much assured for the ruling parties, but the margin of victory is critically important to the market outlook for both countries. 

In Mexico, former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum is ahead in all polls.  But her opponent, Xóchitl Gálvez, has run a smart campaign and put reforms and economic development on the nation, putting serious pressure on Sheinbaum and the Moreno Party coalition.  Interestingly, Sheinbaum is seen as possibly being more left-wing than current President Andres Manual Lopez Obrador (AMLO), but voter pressure may keep her leftist tilt in check.

In India, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appear to be on the cusp of an enormous victory, picking up even more seats in parliament than before and potentially paving the way for Modi to push through sweeping reforms highly attractive to investors.

Finally, in Europe, voters across the European Union will vote for members of the European Parliament.  Polls suggest the result could be a significant right-wing tilt of the EU Parliament.  It will also decide who the next EC President will be (likely re-election of current President Ursula von der Leyden) and the entire European Commission. 

We would note two important and somber anniversaries this week, one ensuring freedom and the other crushing it: The first being the 80th Anniversary of D-Day on June 6 and the second 35th Anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing.

Looking at the economic radar screen this week, markets will be watching the European Central Bank's decision on interest rates on Thursday.    Elsewhere in Europe, Germany releases industrial production figures, factory orders, and the latest trade balance numbers. 

In the US, the jobs report coming out Friday is being closely watched by market participates in advance of the Federal Reserve Board meeting in two weeks.  Canada’s Reserve Bank meets on interest rates.

 Turning to Asia, China releases the Caixin PMIs and the May trade balance. In Japan, the Ministry of Finance’s Q1 Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations and the Monthly Labor Survey for April are released.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, June 2, 2024

Global

·        OPEC+ ministers meet via videoconference to assess oil output.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Mexico holds presidential, senatorial, and chamber of deputy elections.  Claudia Sheinbaum (ruling party MORENA) is expected to win against her opponent, Xochitl Galvez (opposition party PAN).  You can track the election results HERE.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        Serbia reruns Belgrade’s elections which were held in December.  The rerun comes as a result of complaints of widespread voter fraud.

·        Italy celebrates Republic Day today, marking the day in 1946 when the country voted to become a republic following the end of World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        The International Air Transport Association holds its annual meeting in Dubai through June 4.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 3, 2024

Global

·        The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will meet in Vienna to discuss Iran’s nuclear development and the situation in Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        President Biden’s son, Hunter, goes on trial for illegal firearms possession.

·        Brazil will host the International Conference on Renewable Energy Technologies in Teresina.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Mexico Business Confidence (May)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (April)

·        Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·        Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

·        Uruguay Unemployment Rate (April)

·        Argentina Tax Revenue (May)

·        Peru Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (May)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM (May)

·        Japan Capital Spending YoY (Q1)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

·        Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

·        Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

·        Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Thailand Business Confidence (May)

·        Pakistan Balance of Trade (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        The UN’s Bonn Climate Change Conference begins in Bonn, Germany.  The meeting is in advance of the COP28 meetings.

·        The Oslo Freedom Forum takes place in Oslo, Norway.  The posthumous Award of the Oslo Freedom Forum Human Rights Prize will be given to Alexei Navalny.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        France Budget Balance (April)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

·        Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Spain Tourist Arrivals (April)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Turkey Inflation Rate (May)/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (May)/ PPI (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (May)

·        Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

·        Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

·        Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI May

·        Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

·        Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        The White House is set to send a delegation of National Security Council staff to Egypt to hold a trilateral meeting between U.S., Egyptian and Israeli officials in Cairo next week to discuss the reopening of the Rafah crossing and a plan for securing the border between Egypt and Gaza Nothing significant to report.

·        Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing.  They are expected to discuss enhanced trade opportunities as well as the situation in Gaza and in Ukraine. Another key point they will discuss is harmonizing China’s Belt and Road Initiative with the Trans-Caspian East-West Middle Corridor Initiative. These discussions come as developments in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Red Sea impact global supply line security and some transportation projects.  Fidan will also meet with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Uganda observes Martyrs Day,  commemorating when 45 Christians chose execution over renouncing their faith in 1887. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (May)

Tuesday, June 4, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with his counterparts in Cambodia.  In recent years, Cambodia has grown closer to China.  China has been sending migrant workers to Cambodia, reaching almost 300,000 workers.  Penh.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

·        Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (March)

·        USA Redbook (June/01)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/31)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (May)/ Total Vehicle Sales (May)

·        Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI/ Exports (April)

·        Paraguay Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s national election process concludes.  The seven-phase general election began on April 19 with voting being held for 543 seats in the Lok Sbah (the lower house of Parliament).  An estimated 970 million people were eligible to vote.  More than one million polling stations were set up and 15 million employees of federal and state governments conducted the polls.  Poll officials went to great lengths to ensure everyone who could vote did vote.  Officials used helicopters, boats, mules, and even elephants to reach remote areas.  A party needs to win a majority of 272 seats to form a government.  The ruling Baharatiya Janata Party (BJP) went into the election with 282 seats and is looking to expand that number.  You can track the election results HERE.

·       South Africa hosts the Korea-Africa Summit and the Korea-Africa Business Sumit (on June 5)  in Seoul.  African leaders will gather to discuss with South Korean leaders how to improve trade and economic relations.

·       Pakistan Foreign Minister Shehbaz Sharif meets with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing.  The meeting is expected to focus on expanding the multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which is critical to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, giving China access to Pakistan’s ports.

·       Today is the 35th anniversary of the crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators in Tiananmen Square.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        South Korea Inflation Rate (May)

·        India General Elections Results

·        Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Australia Company Gross Profits QoQ (Q1)/ Business Inventories QoQ (Q1)/ Current Account (Q1)/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP (Q1)/ Retail Sales MoM Final (April)

·        New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (June/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labor Party Leader Sir Keir Starmer will debate on ITV in their first election debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        European Central Bank Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in a seminar entitled "Big Techs in Finance: The European Union Must React!" organized by the Association Europe-Finances-Régulations (AEFR) in Paris.

·        European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a  speech at "Die Woche der Umwelt 2024, zusammen für Klimaneutralität" organized by the Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt (DBU) in Berlin.

·        Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May)

·        Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Romania PPI (April)

·        Hungary GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

·        Switzerland Inflation Rate (May)

·        Slovakia Real Wages YoY (Q1)

·        Spain Unemployment Change (May)

·        Germany Unemployment Rate (May)

·        Slovenia Balance of Trade (April)

·        Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (May)

·        Qatar Financial Centre PMI (May)/ Balance of Trade (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        African leaders will gather in Seoul for the 2024 Korea-Africa

·        Zambia’s bondholders will hold a final vote on Tuesday on a $3 billion restructuring deal aimed at creating fiscal space for the southern African nation that defaulted in 2020.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Egypt S&P Global PMI (May)

·        South Africa GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

Wednesday, June 5, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo will travel to Singapore to participate in the Indo-Pacific Framework Clean Energy Investor Forum, which runs through June 6.  She will then participate in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework Ministerial meetings.

·        The Inaugural Joint Angolan American Defense Cooperation Agreement begins in Washington and runs through June 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/31)/ ADP Employment Change (May)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May)/ ISM Services PMI (May)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/31)

·        Brazil Industrial Production (April)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May)

·        Mexico Consumer Confidence (May)

·        Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision/Press Conference

·        Canada Labor Productivity QoQ (Q1)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May)/

·        Uruguay Inflation Rate (May)

·        Argentina Industrial Production (April)

·        Colombia PPI (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

·        New Zealand Export Prices QoQ (Q1)/ Import Prices QoQ (Q1)/ Terms of Trade QoQ (Q1)

·        Australia Ai Group Industry Index (May)/ Judo Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (May)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

·        Japan Average Cash Earnings (April)/ Overtime Pay (April)/ Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (May)

·        Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (May)

·        Singapore S&P Global PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/ SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (May)

·        Philippines Inflation Rate (May)

·        China Caixin Services & Composite PMI (May)

·        Thailand Inflation Rate (May)

·        India HSBC Services & Composite PMI Final (May)

·        Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (May)

·        Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum begins and runs through June 8.  Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to speak.

·        Denmark celebrates Constitution Day, commemorating the day in 1849 when the first Constitution was signed.  Workers get the second half of the day off and shops close to celebrate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        European Central Bank Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates in a fireside chat at the 28th Goldman Sachs European Financial Conference in Madrid.

·        ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel discussion at the 23rd annual IMF-FED-WB.

·        Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May)/ PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Business Confidence (May)/ Real Wage Growth (March)/ Retail Sales (April)/ GDP (April)

·        Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (April)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·        France Industrial Production MoM (April)/ HCOB Services & Composite PMI (May)

·        Spain HCOB Services Composite PMI (May)

·        Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMI (May)

·        Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMI (May)

·        Euro Area HCOB Services & Composite PMI (May)/ PPI (April)/ European Parliament Election

·        Great Britain S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Final

·        Poland Interest Rate Decision (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (May)

·        Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (May)

·        Israel Tourist Arrivals (May)

·        Jordan PPI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (May)

·        South Africa S&P Global PMI (May)

·        Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

·        Ghana S&P Global PMI (May)

Thursday, June 6, 2024 

Global

·        The UN General Assembly is expected to elect five non-permanent members to the UN Security Council.  The likely new members are Denmark, Greece, Pakistan, Panama, and Somalia, and they will serve for two-year terms.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        President Biden will travel to France to participate in the D-Day commemoration ceremonies.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook at the Girls Global Academy 2024 Commencement Ceremony, University of the District of Columbia, Washington, D.C.

·        USA Challenger Job Cuts (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/01)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/31)

·        Mexico Auto Production (May)

·        Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Ivey PMI s.a (May)

·        Brazil Car Production MoM (May)

·        Ecuador Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Toyoaki Nakamura meets with local leaders and gives and speech in Sapporo, Japan.

·        Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/01)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/01)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·        Philippines Unemployment Rate (April)

·        Australia Balance of Trade (April)/ Investment Lending for Homes (April)

·        Taiwan Inflation Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        The European Union Parliamentary elections take place through June 9.   The election is expected to result in a strong right-wing surge of members.  Once the new parliament is seated in September, they will choose and approve new European Commissioners and also nominate the President of the European Commission (currently, Ursula von der Leyden, who is running for re-election).  You can follow the results HERE.

·        French President Emmanuel Macron will host world leaders in Normandy to commemorate the anniversary of D-Day.  Macron has angered allies by inviting a representative of the Russian government to attend.  Ukrainian President Zelensky is expected to attend, as well.

·        Nothing significant to report.

·        Today is Sweden National Day.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        The European Central Bank meets to discuss monetary policy.  There will be a press conference afterward.

·        Ireland AIB Services PMI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·        Switzerland Unemployment Rate (May)

·        Romania Retail Sales (April)

·        Hungary Retail Sales (April)

·        Slovakia GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ Retail Sales (April)

·        Spain Industrial Production (April)

·        Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/Marginal Lending Rate

·        France HCOB Construction PMI (May)

·        Germany HCOB Construction PMI (May)

·        Italy HCOB Construction PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·        Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (May)

·        Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/31)

·        Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Israel Business Confidence (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        South Africa Current Account (Q1)

·        Nigeria Balance of Trade (February)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Balance of Trade (January)

·        Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Friday, June 7, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·        Mexico Inflation Rate (May)

·        Canada Unemployment Rate (May)/ Participation Rate (May)/ Capacity Utilization (Q1)

·        USA Unemployment Rate (May)/ Participation Rate (May)/ Average Weekly Hours (May)/ Wholesale Inventories MoM (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (June/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (April)

·        Costa Rica Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        Japan’s Self-Defense Force (SDF) will participate in the US military’s “Valiant Shield” military exercises through June 18.  The exercises normally take place around Guam, the Northern Marianas Islands, and Palau.

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        New Zealand Manufacturing Sales YoY (Q1)

·        Japan Household Spending (April)/ Coincident Index Prel (April)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (April)

·        Philippines Industrial Production (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·        Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (May)

·        China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·        Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·        Thailand Consumer Confidence (May)

·        India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/31)

·        Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·        Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·        Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        NATO’s Baltic Operations 2024 exercises begin in Lithuania.

·        Today is Sette Giurno in Malta, a national holiday.  It celebrates nothing in particular – it’s just a day off for everyone.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in Atelier Maurice Allais 2024 organized by Fondation Maurice Allais in Paris.

·        European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on a panel discussion at the Federal Ministry of Finance in Berlin.

·        Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production MoM (April)

·        Romania GDP Growth Rate YoY 2nd Est (cQ1)

·        Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (May)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (May)

·        Hungary Industrial Production YoY Prel (April)/ Budget Balance (May)

·        France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·        Slovakia Balance of Trade (April)

·        Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·        Euro Area Employment Change YoY Final (Q1)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY 3rd Est (Q1)/ European Parliament Election

·        Greece Balance of Trade (April)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

·        Ireland Current Account (Q1)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)/ GNP YoY (Q1)/ Industrial Production (April)

·        Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·        Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·        Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ Business Confidence (Q2)

Saturday, June 8, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        French President Emmanuel Macron will host President Biden for an official state visit to France.  They are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine and Macron may use the occasion to announce France is sending military trainers to Ukraine.

·        Ireland holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Euro Area European Parliament Election

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a deadline set by National Unity leader and war cabinet member Bennie Gantz to submit a six-point plan for post-war Gaza.  Gantz has said that if Netanyahu fails to do this, Gantz’s centrist party will withdraw from the governing coalition and likely trigger a new election.  According to recent polls, close to 70 percent of Israeli voters want Netanyahu to step down and new elections to be held soon.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 9, 2024

Global

·        Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        China Vehicle Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections.

·        Belgium holds parliamentary and regional elections.

·        Germany holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Today is National Heroes Day in Uganda, honoring the estimated 500,000 people who died in the Uganda Bush War that took place between 1981 and 1986.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.