CORRECTED: The Global Week Ahead

China Holds the 4th Party Plenum, Japan Elects a New Prime Minister, Rubio to Meet with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, the ASEAN Summit Begins, and It’s a Big Earnings Week

October 19 - 26, 2025

It is going to be a week of momentous meetings, likely to set the direction for a number of issues globally for the coming year.  First, the Chinese Communist Party is holding its 4th Party Plenum in Beijing.  The meetings come at a critical time for China as the economy continues to struggle to regain its footing, eight senior military officials were either arrested or kicked out of the Party last week, and President Xi continues to battle President Trump over tariffs and access to rare earth minerals.

Meanwhile, following President Trump’s meeting Friday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov in Budapest to resume discussions on how to bring either a ceasefire or an outright end to the war in Ukraine.  Late this weekend, it was reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a telephone call with President Trump this past week, reiterated his demand that Ukraine surrender large portions of occupied land in return for peace.  Trump reportedly, in turn, urged Zelensky to consider the terms.  Trump also denied Zelenskyy and Ukrainian military forces access to the much-sought Tomahawk missiles.

In the Middle East this week, Vice President J.D. Vance is expected to travel to Israel Tuesday to push for further implementation of the Gaza peace agreement while US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trum[‘s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is expected to meet with Qatari and Israeli representatives on the next steps on the shaky plan.  The past week saw continued violence in Gaza as Hamas began going after rival factions, executing dozens of fighters and leaders as they struggle to retain some semblance of control in the region.

This coming Sunday, the ASEAN Summit begins in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.  President Trump is expected to attend and preside over the peace signing ceremony between Thailand and Cambodia.   Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss ways to de-escalate new tensions between the US and China, which sprang back up last week when China announced a new ban on critical mineral sales globally.

This all comes in advance of a much-hoped-for meeting between Trump and President Xi in two weeks at a second ASEAN Summit, this time being held in Gyeongju, South Korea between October 31-November 1.  But there is concern in the markets about the meeting and if it might be called off at the last meeting as much depends on how well the meeting between Secretary Bessent and Vice Premier He go.

Also happening this week will be the election of Japan’s new Prime Minister on Tuesday.  It appears that Sanae Takaichi has successfully put together a new coalition with Japan’s Innovation Party with her Liberal Democratic Party, which will make her Japan’s first female prime minister.  She will attend the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur and then meet with President Trump on October 27-29 in Japan to discuss finalizing a trade deal and then attend the second ASEAN Summit in South Korea on October 31.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, the big event will be in the US, where, despite the ongoing government shutdown, government economists have been called back to work to assemble the September CPI numbers for release on Friday.   All other government data releases are being delayed because of the shutdown so markets remain dependent on private sector data. The Conference Board releases its leading index on Monday, and the University of Michigan releases its consumer sentiment report on Friday.  Canada’s CPI is out Tuesday.

Turning to Europe, markets will be listening closely to several speeches by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.  Also, the UK will be releasing September inflation figures on Wednesday and retail sales and consumer confidence numbers on Friday.  Germany and France have manufacturing PMIs on Friday. 

In Asia, China will be releasing Q3 GDP and September economic figures on Monday.  Japan releases trade data on Wednesday and CPI on Friday.  And South Korea’s central bank interest rate decision is on Thursday.

Finally, we would note this is going to be a big earnings announcement week as market participants will get a deeper understanding of how the trade wars and the risk of inflation are impacting corporations globally.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 19, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/IMF Meetings conclude.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Bolivia holds presidential run-off elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Communist Party Fourth Plenum

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Northern Cyprus holds presidential elections.

·       The EU-Iraq Cooperation Council meets in Luxembourg.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 20, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Government shutdown is expected to continue throughout the week ahead.

·       Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese travels to Washington to meet with President Donald Trump, their first face-to-face meeting. Albanese is expected to seek reassurances over America's commitment to the AUKUS submarine deal and promote access to Australia's strategic materials such as rare earths as leverage in the talks with the American leader.

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Hungary to discuss Ukraine.

·       Today is Heroes’ Day in Jamaica, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada PPI (September)/ Raw Materials Prices (September)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey

·       USA CB Leading Index (September)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (August)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (August)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (September)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China holds the 4th Chinese Communist Party Plenum in Beijing.  The four-day forum will discuss the country’s next five-year plan.

· In Vietnam, the National Assembly holds its winter session, which lasts until December 11.  They are expected to discuss 49 laws and 4 resolutions -- a record number. Vietnam, one of the fastest-growing economies, is ramping up wide-ranging reforms that the government expects will help fuel double-digit economic growth in 2026, up from an expected 8% in GDP growth this year.

·       Diwali is celebrated in India through October 25.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q3

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (October)/ House Price Index (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q3/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Communist Party Fourth Plenum        

·       Reserve Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Hajime Takata gives a speech at the Chugoku Economic Federation in Hiroshima, Japan.

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  The Foreign Ministers will discuss the state of the War in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, and the EU-Indo-Pacific relations.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) meets in Luxembourg.

·       European Commission President  Ursula von der Leyen participates in the Summit of Southern European Union countries (MED-9) in Portorož, Slovenia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives welcoming remarks at the 5th WE_ARE_IN Macroeconomics and Finance Conference 2025 organized by Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Bank for International Settlements.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel speaks at WE_ARE_IN conference in Frankfurt. European Central Bank Governing Council members Joachim Nagel and Boris Vujcic attend a roundtable in New York.

·       Germany PPI (September)/ Bundesbank Balz Speech

·       Euro Area Current Account (August)/Construction Output (August)

·       Italy Construction Output (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (September)/ Employment Growth (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Slovakia Current Account (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (September)/ M1 Money Supply (September)

·       Saudi Arabia Real Estate Price Index Q3

·       Oman Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (September)

Tuesday, October 21, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TVV meeting on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve holds its Payments Innovation Conference in Washington, D.C.  Federal  Governor Christopher J. Waller will give opening remarks.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI Median (September)

·       USA Redbook (October/18)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/17)    

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (August)/ Imports (August)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (September)

·       Costa Rica          Balance of Trade (September)

·       EARNINGS: Netfilx, GE, Coca-Cola, Philip Morris, Texas Instruments, Capital One, Danaher, Lockheed Martin, Northrup Grumman, 3M, General Motors, EQT, Equifax, PulteGroup, Haliburton

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Diet will vote on who will be the next Prime Minister.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Credit Card Spending (September)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/21)          

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones speaks on a panel at the ISDA/AFMA Derivatives Trading Forum in Sydney.

·       Japan BoJ Himino Speech

·       Taiwan Export Orders (September)

·       India Infrastructure Output (September)             

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia is expected to begin 10-days of naval exercises in the Pacific in waters close to South Korea and Japan.

·       The Helsinki Security Forum takes place in Helsinki.  The event brings together experts and decision-makers to explore European security and defense.  It will also address how Europe can boost its competitiveness, invest in Defence, and shape its security order. High-level delegates are expected to attend, and participants include representatives from the Defence industry, research institutions, and government bodies.

·       The EU-Uzbekistan Cooperation Council meets in Luxembourg.

·       The EU Environmental Council meets in Luxembourg.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  They will discuss the Multiannual Financial Framework 2028-2034, Article 7 procedure concerning Hungary, and other issues.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote address at the Norges Bank's Climate Conference followed by moderated discussion with Al Gore in Oslo, Norway.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives welcoming remarks at the 5th WE_ARE_IN Macroeconomics and Finance Conference 2025 organized by Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives evidence to the House of Lords' Financial Services Regulation Committee on the growth in private markets in the UK following reforms introduced after the 2008 financial crisis.

·       Bank of England Executive Director Victoria Cleland gives a speech at the Bank of England and Bank for International Settlements DLT Innovation Challenge Showcase in London.

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (September)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (September)

·       Greece Current Account (August)

·       Slovenia PPI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The ISS/Africa Futures Conference 2025 takes place online.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (August)       

Wednesday, October 22, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech on financial inclusion at the Crossing the Credit Barrier Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Mo. (via pre-recorded video)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/17)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/17)      

·       Mexico Economic Activity (August)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (August)/ Leading Indicator (September)

·       EARNINGS: Tesla, SAP, IBM, Thermo Fisher, AT&T, UniCredit, Barclays, Moody’s, Southwest Airlines, Alcoa

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (September)

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino gives a speech at the Chugoku Economic Federation in Hiroshima, Japan, Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ BoJ JGB Purchase

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Egypt Summit will be held in Brussels.

·       The Tripartite Social Summit will be held in Luxembourg.

·       In London, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer hosts the 2025 Berlin Process Summit in partnership with Germany. The meeting aims to support stability, security, and economic co-operation in the western Balkan region.

·       The Global Security and Innovation Summit, a two-day event to discuss global security challenges and to explore new security technology, opens in Hamburg.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the  Frankfurt Finance & Future Summit in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a lecture at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in a talk at the Barcelona Real Assets Meeting 2025 in Barcelona, Spain.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sam Woods gives a speech at the Annual City Banquet at Mansion House in London.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Price Index (September)/ BoE Woods Speech

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Poland Retail Sales (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Russia Industrial Production (September)/ PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva travels to Indonesia and Malaysia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will testify before the  U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (October)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Canada Retail Sales (August)/ Manufacturing Sales (September)   

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)/ Existing Home Sales (September)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/17)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (October)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/22)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September & October)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (October)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Paraguay PPI (September)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (September)

·       EARNNGS: T-Mobile, Blackstone, Intel, Union Pacific, Honeywell, Newmont, Freeport-McMorRan, Ford Motor, Baker Hughes, Dassault Systems, PG&E, Dow, EvolutionAB, Atlas Copco

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/18)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/18)            

·       Australia RBA Bulletin

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (September)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (September)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (September)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (September)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Euro Summit takes place in Brussels. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane accepts the occasion of the conferral of the 2025 Pádraig Ó hUiginn Award to him in Dublin, Ireland.

· Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee, Jonathan Hall, gives a speech on the Bank of England Financial Committee’s mandate and the search for a social optimum in London.

·       France Business Confidence (October)/ Business Climate Indicator (October)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (October)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/17)    

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (August)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Great Britain CBI Business Optimism Index Q4/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (October

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Libya Liberation Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, October 24, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of international peace and security: The United Nations Organization: Looking into the Future..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Board of Governors will hold an Open Board Meeting.  The Board will consider proposals to enhance the transparency and public accountability of the Board’s stress testing framework and request comments on the scenarios for the Board’s 2026 supervisory stress test.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (October)/ Current Account (September)/      Foreign Direct Investment (September)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (October)

·       Chile PPI (September)

·       USA Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI (September)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (October)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/24)/ New Home Sales (September)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Procter & Gamble, HCA Healthcare, NatWest, Saab, Sanofi

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock gives a speech in Sydney/Australia S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (September)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ Coincident Index Final (August)/ Leading Economic Index Final (August)      

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q3/ Industrial Production (September)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (August)/ Leading Index (August)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/17)          

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q4

·       China FDI (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ireland holds Presidential elections.

· European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, together with António Costa, President of the European Council, meets with Shavkat Mirziyoyev, President of Uzbekistan, in Brussels, Belgium.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat titled 'Il nuovo quadro della finanza internationale' at Cambio di Paradigma organized by Il Mattino in Naples, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council members Joachim Nagel and Francois Villeroy de Galhau speak at the Berlin Global Dialogue.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (October)/ Car Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

·       France Consumer Confidence (October)/ HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q3/ PPI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)     

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Zambia's Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, October 25, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In  Japan, the Mount Fuji Dialogue begins.  The gathering unites influential government officials and businesspeople from the U.S. and Japan, will be held in Tokyo. Hosted by the Japan Center for Economic Research and the Japan Institute of International Affairs, the annual event comes amid flaring U.S.-China tensions and political uncertainty in Japan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at the 2025 Berlin Global Dialogue in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina holds a referendum in the ethnic Republika Srpska to vote on whether they accept the courts’ decision to convict Milorad Dodik and later to remove him as RS president. Dodik has also stated that a referendum on independence for the Serbian entity might be held at a future date.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ivory Coast holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina holds elections for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Summit begins in Kuala Lumpur and runs through October 28. Southeast Asian leaders will convene, and President Trump is expected to oversee the signing of the Kuala Lumpur Accord, a peace deal between Thailand and Cambodia.  Leaders are set to discuss growing U.S. tariff pressures, regional conflicts like the one in Myanmar, and widening geopolitical divisions. The summit will additionally mark the formal accession of Timor-Leste as ASEAN's 11th member.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK and EU, it is the end of Summer Time – clocks get set back one hour.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Peace Comes to Gaza and Hostages Are To Be Released, The US Government Remains Shutdown, China Cuts off Rare Earth Exports, Argentina’s Milei Meets with Trump Again, and The Annual World Bank/IMF Take Place in Washington, DC

October 12 - 19, 2025

It will be a historic week as Middle Eastern leaders and President Trump gather in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, to witness the signing of ceasefire between Israel and Hamas brokered by Trump. And, after more than two years of captivity, the remaining Israeli hostages are scheduled to be released on Monday. More than 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences in Israeli prisons and more than 1700 detainees rounded up since Israeli forces entered Gaza are to be released.

The challenge now is to keep the ceasefire going in the second phase of the agreement.  This includes questions about the future governance of Gaza, getting Hamas to disarm, and how to rebuild the devastated region.

Also this week, Argentine President Javier Milei will travel to Washington to meet with President Trump to discuss the newly inked bailout package the US is giving Argentina.  The US Treasury intervened in the Argentine currency market to stabilize the peso.  Milei is hoping to garner further support from Trump as mid-term elections approach in Argentina.

All this comes as China moved to impose tough new export controls on rare earths, lithium-ion batteries, and synthetic diamonds – a move which shocked many countries and triggered President Trump to impose new 100 percent tariffs on China on Friday.  Markets are trying to ascertain how serious and long-term China’s moves are, or if it is merely a negotiating tactic by China’s President Xi in advance of a possible meeting with President Trump on the sidelines of the ASEAN meeting later this month. 

Finally, the US federal government remains shutdown and from all indications, will remain shut down this coming week.  There appears to be little to no real negotiations between Congressional Democrats and Republicans, and the House of Representatives is expected to remain out of session this coming week.  Meanwhile, the Trump Administration has begun laying off federal employees as opposed to furloughing them.  And with the shutdown, a number of US data releases will not be released.

This brings us to this week’s global economic and financial radar screen.  Dominating the week will be the  2025 World Bank/IMF Annual meetings and the many side events being held in Washington – the most important being the Institute for International Finance’s annual member meeting – where numerous central bankers will pop by to give speeches and participate on panels.

Looking at the Americas, with the US federal government shutdown still going on, most major data releases are either being canceled or delayed (leaving the Federal Reserve will remain flying somewhat blind on data in advance of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, October 28 – 29.)   The most important now-delayed release is the September CPI which was scheduled to come out October 15th.  That report has now been rescheduled to October 24.

What is likely to guide markets is the large number of Federal Reserve and regional Fed speeches this week, including Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech on Tuesday.   Also, we would note this week we will see a number of major bank and financial institutions earnings reports including Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and BlackRock.

 Turning to Europe, we will see Eurozone labor market data releases and the German ZEW Survey on Tuesday, GDP numbers on Thursday, and lots of speeches from European Central Bank board members – including several by ECB President Christine Lagarde.

In Asia this week, the big economic releases will be coming out of China where trade figures are published on Monday and inflation data on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Afghan Taliban's foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqui, will visit India and will reportedly discuss developmental assistance, among other things.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2025 World Health Summit, an international strategic forum for global health, begins in Berlin, running until next Tuesday

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Cameroon holds presidential elections. President Paul Biya is running for his 8th term in office. If he wins, he will be in office as president until he is 100 years old.

·       Equatorial Guinea celebrates its Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 13, 2025

 Global

·       IMF/World Bank Annual Meeting week begins in Washington, D.C.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Great Lakes region, followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1559 report (Lebanon).

·       OPEC releases its monthly oil production report.

·       The Nobel Prize in Economics is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump travels to Egypt to attend the Sharm El-Sheikh Summit for Peace will take place in Egypt.  Multiple Middle Eastern leaders will attend the ceremony and witness the signing of the agreement to end the war in Gaza, negotiated by Trump.

·        

·       Canada celebrates Thanksgiving Day. Financial markets are closed.

·       It is Columbus Day in the US.  Stock markets are open, but the bond market is closed, as are most banks, and the US government is closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on “A View from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia" before the National Association for Business Economics 67th Annual Meeting," Global Economy in Transition: Finding Opportunity Amid Disruption.”

·       Brazil Business Confidence (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (August)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (September)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       President Xi Jinping to attend the opening ceremony of the Global Leaders’ Meeting on Women in Beijing, where he will deliver a keynote speech.

·       Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand travels to New Delhi to meet with meets with India’s Minister of External Affairs, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.  Anand then travels to Singapore for a meeting with Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan. From there, Anand travels to China for talks with China’s Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Services NZ PSI (September)/ Visitor Arrivals (August)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Vehicle Sales (September)

·       India Inflation Rate (September)

·       Singapore Monetary Policy Statement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Albania to meet with President Bajram Begaj and Prime Minister Edi Rama.  She will participate in the opening ceremony of the EU-Western Balkans Investment Forum.  Later, she travels to Montenegro to meet with President Jakov Milatovic and Prime Minister Milojko Spajic.

·       The 71st Annual Session of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly will be held in Ljubljana, Slovenia

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Trade Ministers through October 14 in  Horsens, Denmark.

·       There will be a meeting of the EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) in Luxembourg.  The ministers are expected to discuss the rule of law, the “fight against Russian impunity,” and Eurojust.

·       NATO’s annual two-week nuclear deterrence exercise Steadfast Noon will begin in the Netherlands.

·       German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will meet Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis in Athens, Greece.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Committee Megan Greene delivers the keynote address at the SPE Annual Conference in London.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (September)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (August)

·       Turkey Current Account (August)/ Auto Production (September)/ Auto Sales (September)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Sharm El-Sheikh Summit for Peace will take place in Egypt.  Multiple Middle Eastern leaders and President Trump will attend the ceremony and witness the signing of the agreement to end the war in Gaza.

·       The remaining living Israeli hostages in Gaza will likely be released either today or tomorrow as part of the first phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement.

·       President Trump is expected to travel to Jerusalem, Israel, where he will address the Israeli Knesset.

·       Israel celebrates Simchat Torah Eve. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Oman Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Global

·       The IMF publishes their World Economic Outlook report.

·       The International Energy Agency monthly oil market report is published.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Haiti sanctions. In the morning, the Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations.

·       The Institute for International Finance Annual Membership meeting begins in Washington, D.C. and runs through October 17. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump is expected to welcome Argentina’s President Javier Milei to the White House. They are expected to discuss the US’s recent bailout of the Argentine economy and regional security issues.

·       The 10% tariffs on softwood timber and lumber imports from Canada and elsewhere go into effect.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech entitled “ Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers holds a fireside chat at the B.C. Business Summit in Vancouver.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on payments at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks and participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (September/Redbook (October/11)

·       Canada Building Permits (August)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (September)

·       EARNINGS: Aeon, BlackRock, BP, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, LVMH, Publicis Groupe, Wells Fargo

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. and China are due to begin collecting port fees on each other's ships, in an escalating competition for the seas. Washington announced its docking charges earlier this year to challenge Chinese maritime dominance and revive American shipbuilding. On Friday, Beijing said it would respond in kind.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (September)     

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (September)/ RBA Meeting Minutes

·       India WPI Food Index (September)/ WPI Fuel (September)/ WPI Inflation (September)/ WPI Manufacturing (September)

·       China New Yuan Loans (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (September)/ Total Social Financing SE

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be a meeting of the EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) in Luxembourg.  Ministers will discuss civil protection and health preparedness, the Schengen Agreement, Migration and other issues.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Bosnia and Herzegovina.  She will meet with the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina and meet with Chairwoman of the Council of Ministers Borjana Krišto; visits the Srebrenica Memorial Centre.

·       Today is Defender of Ukraine Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollone gives remarks at the ECR Expert Policy conference "What Future for the Digital Euro?" organized by European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates on a panel discussion at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum 2025 in New York.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a keynote speech at the Ethics and Compliance Conference organized by Banco de Portugal in Lisbon, Portugal.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor presents remarks and a fireside chat with FT columnist Gillian Tett at Kings College, Cambridge, on ‘diversion ahead’.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Claimant Count Change (September)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (September)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (September)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (September)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ ZEW Current Conditions (October)

·       Hungary Construction Output (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ ECB Donnery Speech     

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Romania Current Account (August)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-monitored Gaza-Egypt pedestrian border crossing reopens.

·       Today is Yemen Liberation Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (August)/ Mining Production (August)

Wednesday, October 15, 2025

Global

·       The IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings formally begin in Washington, D.C.

·       G7 Finance Ministers are expected to meet in Washington to discuss increasing pressure on Russia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran participates in a conversation at the CNBC Invest in America Forum (virtual).

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran participates in a conversation at the Nomura Research Forum in Washington, D.C.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated conversation and Q&A on “Economic Mobility" before the United Way Regional Summit on Economic Mobility for Children and Youth.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on artificial intelligence at the 2025 D Fintech Week.

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/10)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/10)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (October)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/10)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (August)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (August)/ Wholesale Sales (August)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (September)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       EARNINGS: Abbot Laboratories, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, PNC Financial Services Group., Progressive

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Japanese Diet will hold an extraordinary session to elect a new prime minister.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock takes part in a fireside chat at the Nomura Research Forum in Washington, D.C.

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at a Citi conference in Sydney.

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (September)

·       China Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q3

·       India Unemployment Rate (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (September)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (September)/ GDP (September)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Services PMI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) meeting in Brussels. EU Defense Ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte chairing the session.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin hosts the Arab League Summit in Moscow.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden travels to Serbia to meet with President Aleksandar Vučić and Prime Minister Đuro Macut.  Later, she travels to Kosovo to meet with President Vjosa Osmani and caretaker Prime Minister Albin Kurti. Later in the day, she travels to North Macedonia: to meet with President Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova and Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski and then meets President of the Assembly Afrim Gashi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives the opening address at the 10th Anniversary Conference of the Single Resolution Mechanism in Brussels, Belgium.  Later, he gives remarks at the 25th anniversary of Alantra in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at 10th Anniversary Conference of the Single Resolution Mechanism in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates on a panel at the IIF Annual Membership meeting in Washington, D.C.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor, financial stability, Sarah Breeden is a panelist at the Fintech Foundation 2025 DC Fintech Week in Washington, D.C.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking David Ramsden speaks in a panel event at the Single Resolution Mechanism 10th Anniversary Conference in Brussels.

·       Romania Industrial Production (August)

·       France Inflation Rate (September)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (September)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (August)/ Residential Property Prices (August)            

·       Serbia Building Permits (August)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (August)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Turkey Budget Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (September)/ Business Confidence (September)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (September)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 16, 2025

Global

·       IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings continue in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (October)/ Housing Starts (September)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (August)

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before a virtual Aiken County Chamber of Commerce event.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics with Governor Christopher J. Waller, New York, New York.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech at the 2025 DC Fintech Week, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran speaks at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks at the 2025 Federal Reserve Stress Testing Research Conference (virtual).

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before the Richmond Association for Business Economics.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran speaks at the  Semafor Fall 2025 World Economy Summit, Washington, D.C.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before the Richmond Risk Management Association.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a town hall hosted by Elevate Rapid City.

·       USA Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (October/NAHB Housing Market Index (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/10)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/10)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/16)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/15)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/04)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/11)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/20)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October/04)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (September/27)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/04)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/11)/ PPI (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Business Inventories (August)

·       EARNINGS: Charles Schwab, Bank of New York Mellon, ABB, CSX, Interactive Brokers, KeyCorp, M&T Bank, Marsh McLennan, Nordea Bank, Taiwan Semiconductor, Travelers, United Airlines, US Bancorp

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura gives a speech to local leaders in Okinawa.

·       Australia Employment Change (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (September)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (August)/BoJ JGB Purchase/ Tertiary Industry Index (August)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (September)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health, and Consumer Affairs Council (Employment and Social Policy) will meet in Luxembourg.

·       The European Commission will unveil its "Roadmap for Defence Readiness." 

·       The 2025 Arctic Circle Assembly will meet in Iceland.  It is expected that more than 2,000 people representing more than 60 countries will attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an IMF's Debate on the Global Economy: Shaping Economic Policies in the Face of Disruptive Change in Washington D.C., USA

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a keynote speech at the SSM Conference on Digitalization in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a roundtable discussion "Central Banking and Supervision in a Geopolitically Fragmented World: Risks, Responses, and Cooperation" organized by Toronto Centre in Washington D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a panel panel "Monetary Crosscurrents: Rethinking Frameworks Amid Trade and Policy Fragmentation" at 2025 IIF Annual Membership Meeting "Growth and Innovation in an Uncertain World" in Washington D.C.,

·       Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Construction Output (August)/ GDP (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (September)

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Italy Inflation Rate (September)/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (August)/ ECB Donnery Speech/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/10)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (September)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (August)

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Ghana PPI (September)

Friday, October 17, 2025

Global

·       IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings continue in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (August)

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem discusses the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Institute for International Finance Annual Membership Meeting.

·       USA Capacity Utilization (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/17)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (August)/ Housing Starts (September)/ Building Permits (September)/ Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)

·       EARNINGS: American Express, Fifth Third Bancorp, Huntington Bancshares, Truist Financial, State Street

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The KMT, Taiwan's biggest opposition party, chooses a new leader as it seeks a path back to power. The KMT has lost three straight presidential elections to the Democratic Progressive Party, most recently in January 2024. But it enjoys a legislative majority with its smaller partner, the Taiwan People's Party, and it has momentum after vanquishing efforts to recall some of its lawmakers this summer. The winner will be in a position to influence how Taiwan handles cross-strait tensions with China and tricky ties with the U.S..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/11)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/11)/ BoJ Uchida Speech

·       Singapore     Non-Oil Exports (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       India Bank Loan Growth (October/03)/ Deposit Growth (October/03)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/10)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives remarks and takes questions at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) "Addressing Regulatory Fragmentation" roundtable discussion in Washington D.C.

·       Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales Annual Conference.

·       Hungary Gross Wage (August)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Euro Area CPI Final (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ ECB Donnery Speech

·       Great Britain BoE Pill Speech

·       Serbia Current Account (August)

·       Belarus GDP (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 18, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/IMF Meetings continue in Washington, D.C.

·       UN Security Council Resolution 2231 will expire today, unless extended. The Security Council unanimously adopted the resolution endorsing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the Iran nuclear deal, in 2015.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bolivia Presidential Election (2nd Round)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates on a panel discussion at Group of Thirty opening panel "Global Economic Outlook" in Washington D.C.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollon participates on a panel discussion at Euro50Group meeting in Washington D.C.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 19, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/IMF Meetings conclude.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Bolivia holds presidential run-off elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Communist Party Fourth Plenum

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Northern Cyprus holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Global Week Ahead

Israeli-Hamas Peace Talks Take a Big Step, Trump Meetings with Canada’s Carney, the EU Parliament Holds No-Confidence Votes, the US Government Looks to Be Shut Another Week, and Markets Await a Flood of Central Bank Speeches

October 5 - 12, 2025

The world is watching events unfold in the Middle East as Hamas appears to be ready to accept a good portion of President Trump’s peace plan proposal, including releasing all remaining hostages (just as we come up on the 2 year anniversary of Hamas’ horrific attack on Israel).  There are several unresolved points but US negotiators led by Jared Kushner and Steven Witkoff are in Egypt now working to finalize the deal but there is real hope the hostages will be released this week.

Also this week, President Trump has invited Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to meet with him at the White House on Tuesday to discuss both trade issues as well as mutual security concerns.  Trade negotiators have been careful not to oversell the outcome of the meeting but there is hope a deal can be struck between the two leaders.

Meanwhile in Washington, the federal government shutdown continues, and House Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA) has announced the House of Representatives will not return to work unless Democrats accept the continuing resolution they passed two weeks ago.  At this point, we do not see a deal emerging soon but there is always hope.

In Europe, the European Parliament is scheduled to hold two no-confidence votes against EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyden.  This is the second time no-confidence votes have been brought against von der Leyden in the last three months. While both votes are expected to fail, it shows how split the Parliament is on issues ranging from trade to climate.

Staying in Europe, the Nobel Committee will begin announcing winners of their prestigious prize on Monday.  The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday, and the Nobel Prize for Economics will be announced next Monday.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, markets are awaiting a flood of speeches from central bankers.  In the US alone, we count sixteen Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve President speeches over the course of five days, including a speech by Fed Chair Jay Powell. 

And in the EU, we count eleven scheduled European Central Bank (ECB) board member speeches including two from ECB President Christine Lagarde (and more are expected to be announced) plus Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaking in Scotland. That is a lot of data for the markets to take in and, in our view, a bit odd considering the week of October 12th is the Annual IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington, DC where there will be countless central bankers speaking.

With the US government shutdown still going, there will be limited economic data releases.  The Federal Reserve releases minutes from their last Open Market Meeting.  And the University of Michigan consumer survey is out Friday.

In Asia, China’s Gold Week holiday continues until October 8th.   Japan, which has just elected its first woman as Prime Minister, releases its Regional Economic Report on Monday and the Consumer Activity Index on Tuesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 5, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ will hold a virtual meeting to consider increased output of at least 137,000 bpd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea celebrates Chuseok, the Korean Thanksgiving festival, through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK’s Conservative Party holds its annual conference in Manchester, running through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Syria will hold parliamentary elections.

·       Israel is expected to begin mediated negotiations with Hamas in Cairo, Egypt.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

Monday, October 6, 2025

Global

·       The Nobel Committee begins announcing winners of prizes. Today’s prize will be for physiology or medicine.

·        The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Women and Peace and Security.

·       The World Trade Organization’s General Council meeting takes place in Geneva, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Supreme Court begins a new term, hearing cases.

·       Unless there is a last-minute breakthrough agreement between Congressional Republicans and Democrats over a Continuing Resolution bill, the federal government will remain shut this week and the House of Representatives will stay out of session this week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks to CFA Society Kansas City on the economic outlook and monetary policy.

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Colombia Exports (August)/ PPI (September)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (September)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Azerbaijan hosts the 12th Summit of the Organization of Turkic States.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (September)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Parliament is expected to hold two separate no-confidence vote son European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sometime this week.  Both votes are expected to fail.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Scotland’s Global Investment Summit 2025 being held in Edinburgh.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives the opening remarks at the Diario Expansión: XVI Encuentro Financiero in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy 2025: bridging science and practice in Frankfurt, Germany

·       Romania Retail Sales (August)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (August)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (August)

·       Spain Industrial Production (August)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ ECB Lane Speech/ Retail Sales (August)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (September)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (September)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

·       Serbia PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)

·       Jordan PPI (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Armed Forces Day in Egypt.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Tuesday, October 7, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Cooperation between the United Nations and regional and subregional organizations (AU).

·       Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days event begins and runs through October 8. This will be closely watched by economist for any slowdown in shopping by consumers.

·       The 2025 Nobel Prize for Chemistry is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US President Donald Trump will host Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the White House for talks on trade.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives welcoming remarks at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference, St. Louis, Mo. (via pre-recorded video)

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran

·       Sits for a fireside chat at the Managed Funds Association (MFA) Policy Outlook 2025 in New York.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran gives a talk at the Deutsche Bank 2025 Fall Macro Conference in New York.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in discussion on the economic outlook at event hosted by Fisk University.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in conversation on artificial intelligence and the economy before the Star Tribune North Star Summit 2025.

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (September)/ Auto Production (September)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (September)

·       USA Redbook (October/04)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (October)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ Consumer Credit Change (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/03)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Used Car Prices (September)

·       Brazil Car Production (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (September)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (September)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The FIATA World Congress – global freight forwarders – in Hanoi, Vietnam to discuss various topics, such as challenges in the new global trade landscape and how to navigate them. Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh is scheduled to attend the event

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q3/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q3/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/07)       

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (October)/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (October)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (September)/ RBA Annual Report 2025

·       Japan Household Spending (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Coincident Index (August)/ Leading Economic Index (August)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (September)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Motorbike Sales (September)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Singapore     Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech followed by a Q&A session at Business France event 'Business en Européens' in Paris, France.

·       Germany Factory Orders (August)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (September)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (September)/ Treasury Gilt 2028 Tender

·       Hungary Industrial Production August)

·       France Imports/ Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (September)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       This is the 2nd anniversary of Hamas’ horrific attack on civilians in Israel and taking of hostages.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, October 8, 2025

Global

·       In the morning, the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting on Somalia and the 2713 Committee. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).  

·       In Washington, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva gives a curtain raiser speech for the upcoming 2025 Annual Meetings being held next week.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve releases FOMC minutes

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louise, Missouri.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on community development and Indian Country the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Center for Indian Country Development 10th Anniversary and Data Summit: Braiding the Past and Future of Native Economies, Minneapolis, Minnesota.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem gives welcome remarks before the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (September)

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/03)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/03)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (October/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/03)/EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/03)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Paris Europlace Forum 20254 will take place in Tokyo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Uedo speaks at the 2025 Paris Europlace Forum in Tokyo.

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (August)/ Overtime Pay (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Bank Lending (September)/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Survey (September)

·       Australia Building Permits (August)/ Private House Approvals (August)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (August)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded video message at 55th anniversary event of the Werner Report "Itinéraires luxembourgeois et européens" in Luxembourg.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at International Conference on Finance organized by Finantsinspektsioon in Tallin, Estonia.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates on a panel discussion at International Conference on Finance organized by Finantsinspektsioon in Tallin, Estonia.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen moderates a panel discussion at the International Conference on Finance organized by Finantsinspektsioon in Tallin, Estonia.

·       Germany Industrial Production (August)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (September)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Budget Balance (September)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (August)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (September)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 9, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).     

·       The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for Literature is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. (via pre-recorded video)

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. 

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman gives a speech entitled “Future of Community Banking: Challenges and Opportunities” at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Minnesota Luncheon, Minneapolis, Minesota.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Looking Toward the Future” at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. 

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers speaks in Toronto.

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (September)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (September)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (October/04)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Wholesale Inventories (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/03)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/09)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/08)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/20)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/04)/ Reuters Tankan Index (October)/ Machine Tool Orders (September)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)                 

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (August)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (September)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Luxembourg.  The EU Finance Ministers will discuss macroeconomic and fiscal monitoring including preparation for upcoming international meetings.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications Ministers through October 10 in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a roundtable discussion and Q&A at the Irish Association of Investment Managers in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (September)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (August)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/03)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts/ECOFIN Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (August)

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (August)   

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Uganda Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (August)

Friday, October 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

·       The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize recipient is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in fireside chat before the Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce Public Policy Speaker's Series.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives opening remarks and moderates a discussion before the 19th annual Community Bankers Symposium, “Community Banking: Charting the Course" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

·       Brazil PPI (August)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (September)/ Employment Change (September)/ Full & Part Time Employment Change (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Average Hourly Wages (September)

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (October)/Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/10)/ Monthly Budget Statement (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te is expected to deliver a national day address.

·       Tajikistan will host a summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States in Dushanbe.   They will simultaneously host the 2ndCentral Asia-Russia Summit.  Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend both events.

·       North Korea is expected to show off its newest weapons at a large military parade to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers' Party. High-ranking officials from China and Russia are expected to participate. The last time North Korea held a large military parade was in July 2023 to mark the 70th anniversary of the signing of the Korean War armistice.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (September)

·       Australia RBA Bullock Speech/ RBA Kent Speech

·       Japan PPI (September)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (July)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision/ PPI (September)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (September/26)/ Deposit Growth (September/26)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/03)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will visit India through October 10th.

·       In Slovenia, the 2025 Nato Parliamentary Assembly Annual Session, where 281 parliamentary members from 32 Nato member states are due to discuss Euro-Atlantic Defence and the continent’s security agenda.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications Ministers in Brussels.

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  Ministers will discuss financing the EU Budget, taxation of tobacco, climate financing, and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Romania Balance of Trade (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (August)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (August)

·       Italy Industrial Production (August)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (August)

·       Greece Industrial Production (August)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (September)

·       Russia Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (September)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Naura holds parliamentary elections and a referendum on the Constitution.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Scottish National party annual three-day conference begins in Aberdeen.

·       In Belfast, Northern Ireland’s Ulster Unionist party annual conference open.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Gabon holds the 2nd round of National Assembly elections.

·       IN the Seychelles, the conclusion of a three-day presidential run-off election after no candidate secured the required 50 per cent majority in the first-round vote, held on September 27.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2025 World Health Summit opens, an international strategic forum for global health, begins in Berlin, running until next Tuesday

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Cameroon holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

EU Leaders Discuss defense and Ukraine aid; Trump talks Gaza with Netanyahu; US Nears Government Shutdown, and Markets Await Numerous Central Bank Speeches

September 28 - October 5, 2025

It is going to be another fast and furious week for markets to absorb and analyze.  We believe the most important event of the week might be a gathering of EU leaders in Copenhagen on Wednesday to discuss common defense issues, how to better support Ukraine militarily, and possible enlargement.  But the main topic will be how they can collectively respond to the spike of Russian intrusions into Polish, Romanian, Danish, and Latvian airspace with fighter jets and drones.  The Russian actions can no longer be considered “accidental” and are clearly both a provocation and a testing of NATO response capabilities. 

In last week’s report, we noted EU leaders were starting to consider the building of a “drone wall” on the border with Russia.  The meeting in Copenhagen will likely solidify the plans.  It may even authorize the use of frozen Russian assets to fund the layered defense strategy, which would include advanced radar, anti-aircraft missiles, and drones to counter any future Russian airspace trespassing.

The meetings will take place after Sunday’s elections in Moldova, which are being closely watched for potential Russian interference.  The Moldovan government has already banned two political parties from participating in the election due to their alleged ties to the Kremlin.  Concerns are rising over potential civil unrest in the coming days, potentially instigated by Russia.  As of this writing Sunday night, the pro-EU Party is leading in the vote count.

Meanwhile, in Washington on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet at the White House with President Trump – their fourth such meeting this year at the White House – to discuss the crisis in Gaza and Israeli threats to begin annexing the West Bank – something President Trump has now voiced opposition to.   While at the United Nations last week, Trump convened a meeting of Arab leaders to discuss potential Gaza peace options, and he is likely to discuss them with Netanyahu during the meeting.  The deal contains 21 proposals and according to various reports, leaves the door open for the creation of a new Palestinian state.

Staying in Washington for a moment, markets are closely watching to see if Congress can hammer out a last-minute deal to avoid a government shutdown on Wednesday.  President Trump has agreed to meet with Republican and Democratic Congressional leaders on Monday to discuss a possible deal.  Otherwise, the House of Representatives, who passed a short-term Continuing Resolution to keep the government open before they left for the week last week, may not come back into session this week in an effort to force Senate Democrats into accepting their bill (Translation: you’d better vote for it or the shutdown is all your fault – and we won’t be here for another week to try again).  For Democrats, the real risk of this is the White House is threatening to fire – instead of furloughing – large numbers of federal workers if there is a shutdown, something Democrats absolutely want to avoid happening (but we would note, this is clearly an indicator of where the Trump Administration wants to go with the 2026 budget which Congress will be working on later this fall – massive shrinkage of the federal government, continuing the DOGE effort first begun by Elon Musk).

Looking at the global economic and financial markets radar screen this week, in the US, the major data reports being released will focus on employment, with the JOLTS report scheduled for Tuesday and the ADP report for Wednesday.   Also released this week are the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report on Tuesday, the ISM Manufacturing Index and ADP employment report on Wednesday, indices on Wednesday and Friday, and factory orders on Thursday.  The ISM Services Index is scheduled for release on Friday.

Turning to Asia, Japan’s industrial production figures and the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions are out on Tuesday, and the Tankan survey is out on Wednesday.  On Tuesday, China releases September PMIs, and the Reserve Bank of Australia meets to discuss interest rates.

In Europe, markets are awaiting the flash CPIs for Germany, France, and Italy on Tuesday, as well as the Eurozone CPIs on Wednesday.  Also, there are a number of central bank speeches being given this week, including two policy speeches by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde (Tuesday and Friday) and one by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (Friday).

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 28, 2025

 Global

·       The UN General Assembly continues through Monday, September 29th.

·       UN Sanctions against Iran “snap back” into place due to Iran’s refusal to maintain inspections of its nuclear program.

·       The 7th Meeting of the BRICS Working Group on Material Sciences and Nanotechnology takes place in Brazil.

·       The 4th  Meeting of the BRICS Working Group on Geospatial Technologies and its Application takes place in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds parliamentary elections.  There is significant concern about likely Russian interference in the election.  Moldovan authorities barred two pro-Russia parties from this Sunday’s election. 

·       The chair of Russia's State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, will visit Vietnam through September 29th.

·       Switzerland holds referendums on whether to accept a new version of a national electronic identity (e-ID) scheme, and separately a constitutional amendment to allow cantons to tax second homes for personal use.

·       The UK Labor Party holds its annual conference in Liverpool.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (July)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 29, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (specifically, the situation in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will again host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House to discuss the situation in Gaza and the West Bank.

·       Ukrainian defense officials will travel to Washington to meet with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Member Christopher Waller will give a speech on payments a the Sibos 2025 Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack participates in a policy panel, "Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2025," hosted by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Center for Inflation Research, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks at an event, "The Past, Present and Future of the Federal Reserve".

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in a conversation organized by the Rochester Institute of Technology.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic moderates a conversation on Atlanta's economy, air travel, and leadership as part of the Atlanta Fed Leading Voices Series.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (September)/ Bank Lending (August)

·       / Pending Home Sales (August)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ BCB Focus Market Readout/ Net Payrolls (August)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Argentina Current Account Q2

·       MAJOR EARNINGS: Carnival

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Economic Ministers Meeting in Kuala Lumpur concludes.

·       The Asian Development Bank releases its latest economic assessment report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Asahi Noguchi speaks at the Sapporo Chamber of Commerce and Industry Conference.

·       Philippines PPI (August)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Japan BoJ JGB Purchases/ Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Economic Index (July)

·       Malaysia PPI (August)

·       Singapore Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ PPI (August)

·       India Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The final results of the Moldovan elections are announced.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal market and Industry) meets in Brussels. Ministers will hold a policy debate on the European Competitiveness Fund (ECF), one of the main elements of the 2028-2034 long-term EU budget (the forthcoming multiannual financial framework (MFF).  They will then hear a presentation on simplification, and exchange views on the Single Market Strategy.

· The Warsaw Security Forum will be held in Warsaw, Poland, through September 30th.  On the sidelines of the Forum, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will meet with his counterparts from Ukraine, France, and Poland as part of the “Weimar Triangle.”

·       The Sibos Conference begins in Frankfurt, Germany, and runs through October 2. The theme of the conference is “The Next Frontiers of Global Finance” and will feature hundreds of speakers, including leading central bankers and government officials from around the world.  

·       The Vaclav Havel Rights Award will be announced in Strasbourg, France.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote speech followed by a fireside chat at the Baltic Digital Euro Conference titled 'Payments & Policy in a Changing Environment' organized by Eesti Pank in Tallinn, Estonia.

· European Central Bank Board member Isabel Schnabel participates in an exchange of views on 'Current aspects of monetary policy' with the Committee on Economic and Monetary Policy of the Association of German Banks in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujcic chairs panel at European Bank Coordination initiative in Brussels 

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates on a panel discussion at '10 years of the SRM - a decade delivering a more resilient financial system' organized by Banco de Portugal in Lisbon, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a policy panel at 'Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2025' conference organized by the ECB and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Euro Economic Sentiment (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ Industrial Sentiment (September)/ Selling Price Expectations (September)/ Services Sentiment (September)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Business Confidence (September)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (September)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (August)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (August)/ Mortgage Approvals (August)/ Mortgage Lending (August)/ M4 Money Supply (August)/ Net Lending to Individuals (August)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision/ Composite Economic Index (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Africa Energy Week begins in Cape Town, South Africa, where senior government leaders and the OPEC Secretary General will gather to discuss energy policy for the continent.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision 

Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Haiti. Then it will hold a briefing on MONUSCO, the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo, followed by consultations..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump is expected to speak to Brazilian President Lula regarding US tariffs on Brazil.

·       The US Senate returns after a week off for home business.  It is unclear whether the House of Representatives will return, however, as Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) has suggested he may keep the body from returning to try to force Senate Democrats to vote in favor of the Continuing Resolution the House passed ten days ago to keep the government open.

·       At midnight, unless the US Congress passes a continuing resolution to fund the federal government, there will be a government shutdown.  The Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Russell Voight, has threatened to fire large numbers of civil servants instead of simply furloughing them.

·       The Regional Dialogue of the Fourth International Symposium on Transboundary Waters in Latin America and the Caribbean will take place in Lima, Peru, through October  2nd, with participation by government authorities and the Inter-American Development Bank.

·       Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth convenes an extraordinary meeting of top military officials at Marine Corps Base Quantico, Virginia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will give a speech on Monetary Policy Frameworks and the US Economic Outlook at the Bank of Finland International Monetary Policy Conference in Helsinki, Finland.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins makes remarks at the Council on Foreign Relations’ C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics in New York. 

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Midwest Agriculture Conference: Midwest Agriculture and Trade Uncertainty

·       USA Redbook (September/27)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (July)/ House Price Index (July)/ Chicago PMI (September)/ JOLTs Job Openings (August)/ CB Consumer Confidence (September)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (September)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks – Corn/ Soy/ Wheat (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/26)

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (August)/ Nominal Budget Balance (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Chile Copper Production (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (August)

·       Costa Rica GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Current Account Q2

·       El Salvador Current Account Q2

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (August)

·       MAJOR EARNINGS: Nike

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is China National Day, otherwise known as Martyrs’ Day.

·       North Korea's Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui will visit China through September 30th.

·       Outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will meet South Korean President Lee Jae-myung in Busan, South Korea, through October. 1st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Retail Sales (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ Construction Orders (August)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (September)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and press conference Australia Private Sector Credit (August)/ Private House Approvals (August)/ Housing Credit (August)/ Building Permits (August)/Cotality Dwelling Prices (September)

·       China NBS General/Non-Manufacturing/ Manufacturing PMI (September)/ RatingDog General & Services & Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Current Account Q2

·       Singapore Bank Lending (August)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Private Consumption & Investment (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       India Government Budget Value (August)/ External Debt Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research) will meet in Brussels. Ministers are expected to approve Council conclusions on the importance of research and innovation for the EU Startup and Scaleup Strategy.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the 4th Bank of Finland's International Monetary Policy Conference in Helsinki, Finland.

·       The Bank of Finland will organize the 4th International Monetary Policy Conference on Monetary Policy in the Shadow of Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Conflicts (virtual).

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the S&P Global Ratings 2025 European Financial Institutions Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates on a panel discussion titled 'View from the Top: Securing Europe; s financial future - Resilience, autonomy, and global impact' at Sibos in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel discussion at a high-level event, 'Climate action that works for you - An agenda for competitiveness, prosperity and resilience' in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the Cardiff Business School.

·       Germany Retail Sales (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/Baden-Württemberg CPI (September)/ Bavaria CPI (September)/ Brandenburg CPI (September)/ Hesse CPI (September)/ North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (September)/ Saxony CPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Great Britain Current Account Q2/ Business Investment Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ BoE Lombardelli Speech/ BoE Ramsden Speech/ BoE L Mann Speech/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (August)/ PPI (August)

·       France Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (August)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (September)

·       Turkey Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)

·       Italy PPI (August)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (September)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Current Account (July)

·       Greece PPI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Ireland Industrial Sales (July)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Ukraine Current Account (August)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (August)

·       FINANCIAL EARNINGS REPORTS: Tesco

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The US-Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, which went into effect 25 years ago, expires. The Act allowed duty-free trade between a number of African nations and the US.

·       The West Africa Mining Security Conference begins in Accra, Ghana.

·       Today is Botswana Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Sector Credit (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (September)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (September)

Wednesday, October 1, 2025

Global

·       Russia assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of October.  There will be a press briefing by Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations and President of the Security Council for the month, on the Programme of Work for the month of October they intend to pursue.

·       Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the Jewish year, begins at sundown and ends at nightfall on October 2nd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       New US tariffs on pharmaceuticals, large trucks, and other goods go into effect.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/26)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/26)/ ADP Employment Change (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/26)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (August)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers sits for a fireside chat at Canada’s Competition Summit 2025 in Ottawa, Ontario.

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Paraguay Current Account Q2

·       Peru Inflation Rate (September)

·       FINANCIAL EARNINGS REPORTS: ConAgra, Acuity

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day of the People’s Republic of China, celebrating Mao Zedon’g formal proclamation of the establishment of the communist state – otherwise known as Golden Week.  Observed on October 1st, another six days are added to the official holiday.

·       Today is Tuvalu Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (August)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/ RBA Chart Pack/ Commodity Prices (September)

·       Japan Tankan Large All Industry/ Manufacturers Index Q3/ Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q3/ Tankan Small Manufacturers Index Q3/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ HSBC Manufacturing PMI (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September/19)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (September)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU heads of state in Copenhagen.  EU leaders will discuss how to strengthen Europe’s defense, also in light of Russia’s recent airspace violations in several EU member states.  They will also discuss ways of further supporting Ukraine.

·       Russia officially begins its annual autumn military conscription.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will meet with his counterparts from the Georgian breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Sochi, Russia.

·       Greece is bracing for a general nationwide strike.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give a one-on-one interview and then participate in a panel discussion at the POLITICO Competitive Europe Summit in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives the keynote speech at the ECB Industry Dialogue on Climate and nature risk management: Taking stock and looking ahead in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Business Confidence (September)/ Real Wage Growth (July)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (August)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (September)/ SNB Quarterly Bulletin

·       Hungry HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ New Car Sales (September)

·       Euro HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI Flash (September)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

Thursday, October 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in a moderated conversation before the UT Evolving Energy and Policy Landscape Conference.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (September)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Factory Orders (August)/EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/26)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/01)/ Total Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (September)

·       Canada BoC Mendes Speech

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 62nd US–Japan Business Conference begins in Tokyo and runs through Saturday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (September/27)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/27)/ Consumer Confidence (September)/ BoJ Uchida Speech

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q3

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ RBA Financial Stability Review/ Household Spending (August)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (August)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Sri Lanka Current Account Q2

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (September)

·       Russia GDP (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 7th European Political Community begins in Copenhagen, Denmark.  More than 50 European leaders will participate as well as the EU Parliament, EU Commission, and the European Council.

·       French unions have called for nationwide strikes today in opposition to proposed parliamentary austerity proposals.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner participates in a fireside chat at EC-EIB-ESM Capital Markets Seminar in Luxembourg.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a fireside chat at ESADE Business School in Madrid, Spain.

·       Romania PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (September)

·       France Budget Balance (August)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Euro Area Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Great Britain DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (September)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (September)

·       Greece Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/26)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Guinea Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (September)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q2

Friday, October 3, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will give a speech on the US Economic Outlook and the Fed’s Monetary Policy Framework at the Drexel Economic Forum in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a keynote before the Klaas Knot Farewell Symposium organized by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB)

·       USA Non-Farm Payrolls (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Average Hourly Earnings (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Government Payrolls (September)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (September)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (September)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)/ ISM Services PMI (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/03)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (August)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (July)

·       Canada S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (September)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (September)

·       El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea celebrates National Foundation Day, a public holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech to a group of business leaders in Osaka.

·       Australia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (August)/ Jobs/applications ratio (August)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (September)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (September)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/26)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany celebrates the 35th anniversary of reunification.  French President Emmanuel Macron will join German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Saarbrucken to celebrate.

·       The Czech Republic holds elections for its Chamber of Deputies.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a farewell symposium for DNB President Klaas Knot, 'Europe in the world - Challenges and Opportunities', organized by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the DNB President Klaas Knot 'Europe in the world - Challenges and Opportunities' organized by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at farewell symposium for DNB President Klaas Knot 'Europe in the world - Challenges and Opportunities' organized by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       France Industrial Production (August)/ HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)/ PPI (August)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (August)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Iraq's Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 4, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party holds its leadership elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Georgia will hold municipal elections to select mayors and members of local representative councils, the Sakrebulo.

·       Today in Germany is National Unity Day, celebrating German reunification.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Lesotho Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 5, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ will hold a virtual meeting to consider increased output of at least 137,000 bpd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea celebrates Chuseok, the Korean Thanksgiving festival, through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK’s Conservative Party holds it annual conference in Manchester, running through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Syria will hold parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

Global Week Ahead

Global Leaders Gather for the UN General Assembly, Canada, France, and the UK Recognize Palestinian Statehood, EU Defense Ministers Consider a “Drone Wall”, and Markets Brace for Global Flash PMIs and Lots of US Central Bank Speeches

September 21 - 28, 2025

New York will be the center of the geopolitical radar screen this coming week.  The United Nations General Assembly’s High-Level General Debate begins on Tuesday, the 80th anniversary meeting, and world leaders will descend on the Big Apple to deliver speeches.  But the truly big event at the UN this week will be the meeting on Palestinian statehood, co-sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia.   French President Emmanuel Macron will use the event to formally recognize a Palestinian State, following Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia in making the dramatic diplomatic policy move.  

The move by major Western nations calling for a two-state solution shows the growing divide between them and Israel as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to oversee military action in the Gaza Strip and reportedly is considering annexing the West Bank – all as the US and other countries continue to gain the freedom of the Israeli hostages held by Hamas.

Also happening on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly will be a meeting between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the UN Assembly.  The main issue they will discuss is efforts to secure a cease-fire in Ukraine, something Russian President Vladimir Putin has been resisting despite President Trump’s increasing threats of more stringent sanctions on Russian oil sales. Markets will be watching closely for any sign of a thaw that could delay Trump’s move toward stricter sanctions.

Overall, there are innumerable other meetings and conferences taking place on the sidelines of the Assembly.  You can find the schedule of when leaders are speaking here, and for a listing of all the other meetings and conferences taking place, you can find them here.

While all this is going on, EU Defense Ministers will be meeting in Latvia to discuss the spike in Russian drone and fighter jet incursions into NATO airspace. The Ministers will consider creating a layered defense system of drones, radar, jamming stations, and other precision weapons to prevent future Russian incursions. The meeting is another sign of the growing tensions between European NATO members and Moscow as Russian President Putin grows either more aggressive or more reckless - or both - in his provocations of NATO.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, the big event for markets will be the global flash PMI reports for any signs of growing inflation.  In the Americas, markets will be listening closely to Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s speech on Tuesday and watching for a number of key reports, including new home sales on Wednesday, existing home sales and durable goods orders on Thursday, and the August PCE print is out on Friday. 

However, we would also note that this is going to be a hectic week for Fed governors “speechifying” – 14 Federal Reserve Board Governors and regional Fed presidents will be speaking in total.  And in Canada, Reserve Bank Governor Tiff Macklin will give a speech and hold a press conference this week, too.  And in Mexico, the Central Bank will meet on interest rates.

Looking at Europe, the European Central Bank releases its August consumer expectation survey on Friday.  Germany’s Ifo survey is out on Wednesday, and consumer confidence surveys for Germany and France are out on Thursday.

Finally, in Asia, Japan releases September CPI figures on Friday, and China releases August inflation data on Wednesday. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 21, 2025

Global

·       Climate Week 2025 formally begins in New York City.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Belize Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, together with António Costa, President of the European Council,  will meet with António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations and João Lourenço, Chairperson of the African Union.  Later in the day, she and Costa will meet with António Guterres.

·       Today is Armenia's Independence Day.

·       Today is Malta Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Global Africa Business Initiative (GABI) will convene the 4th edition of Unstoppable Africa, on the sidelines of the 80th Session of the UN General Assembly at the Marriott Marquis Hotel in Mid-Town Manhattan, New York. 

·       Guinea holds a constitutional referendum on whether to establish a new constitution replacing the one approved in 2020 and mark the first step towards civilian rule.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 22, 2025

Global

·       At the United Nations, the 2nd World Summit on Palestine Statehood, bringing together numerous heads of state and sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia, will attempt to revive the long-stalled “two-State solution” to establish a Palestinian state and the “two-state solution.”  France is expected to join Canada, Great Britain, and other countries in recognizing a Palestinian state.

·       At the United Nations, the High-level Meeting to Commemorate the 80th Anniversary of the United Nations will take place. This one-hour meeting will mark the 80th anniversary of the establishment of the United Nations, with UN officials and Heads of State and Government reflecting on the achievements of the past eight decades and the path ahead for a more inclusive and responsive multilateral system. 

· The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency holds a meeting in Vienna, Austria.

·       Rosh Hashana – the Jewish New Year -  commemorations begin.

·       The Autum Equinox happens in the Northern Hemisphere (Summer is now officially over and its autumn).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US House and Senate are out of session this week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       St. Louise Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem gives a speech on the outlook for the US economy and monetary policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran Non-Monetary Forces and Appropriate Monetary Policy at the Economic Club of New York Luncheon, New York, New York.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates virtually in panel before the “Monetary Policy Frameworks: Recent Developments and Outlook An International Comparative View" event organized by the Bank for International Settlements, European Central Bank and SUERF.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on “The Fed's Role in the Economy and Impact on Everyday Life" before a "Fed Talk" event.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks virtually on the economy before the Howard County (Maryland) Chamber of Commerce.

·       Canada PPI (August)/ Raw Materials Prices (August)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (July)/ Imports (July)

·       Paraguay PPI (August)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (August)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party will begin a two-week leadership contest, with the vote to be held on October. 4. Though the LDP does not have a majority in the Diet, Japan's parliament, it is by far the largest party, so the new leader is most likely to become the next prime minister.

·       Malaysia will host the 57th ASEAN Economic Ministers' Meeting and related sessions this year in Kuala Lumpur as the bloc's chair, with the summit running through Friday alongside the RCEP Ministers' Meeting. Officials will also hold consultations with dialogue partners, including U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and the European Union trade chief, to review market access, regional supply chains and the rules-based trading system.

·       Reforms to India's complex consumption taxes will kick in as Prime Minister Narendra Modi tries to spur domestic consumption in a slowing economy. Under the reforms, most goods and services will be taxed in two tiers of 5% and 18%, with the government abolishing the 12% and 28% brackets. The reforms come just ahead of the crucial festive season between October and December, when Indians engage in the bulk of their yearly shopping.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock delivers the semi-annual testimony to a parliamentary panel in Canberra.

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (September)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets through September 23 in Brussels.  The EU Commission will present its proposals for the common agricultural policy (CAP) post-2027, and agriculture ministers will have the opportunity to hold a first policy debate on the future CAP.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the high-level meeting of the United Nations General Assembly to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the United Nations.  Later, she will deliver a speech at the Global Renewables Summit and then participate in at the high-level International Conference for the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-States.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey participates in a fireside chat at the London School of Economics.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a policy panel at BIS-ECB-SUERF high-level online workshop on Monetary policy frameworks: recent developments and outlook – an international comparative view.

·       European Central Bank Board Member  José Luis Escrivá speaks at an event in Madrid.

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (September)/ Central Government Debt (August)

·       Poland Retail Sales (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (September)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (August)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Mali Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, September 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN General Assembly begins in New York and runs through September 29th.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a high-level briefing on the situation of the Middle East, including the Palestinian Question.  Later, the Council is scheduled to hold a High-Level briefing on Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine.

·       The OECD releases its Interim Economic Outlook Report for the global economy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will address the UN General Assembly.

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will host an event on Russia's abduction of children at the fringes of the U.N. General Assembly in New York.

·       The Third Annual CAF / UNDP Conference on Governance for Development in Latin America and the Caribbean: Critical Natural Resources for Sustainable Development will be held at the United Nations.

·       Ecuadorian unions will march in Quito over the government's elimination of a diesel subsidy. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce 2025 Economic Outlook Luncheon, Warwick, Rhode Island.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will give a speech on the Economic Outlook at the 134th Annual Kentucky Bankers Association Convention (virtual).

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook before a Macro Musings podcast live recording.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks in Saskatoon, followed by a press conference.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Mexico Economic Activity (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (August)

·       USA Current Account Q2/ Redbook (September/20)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/Money Supply (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/19)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (July)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Micron Technology, Costco, Autozone

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will host the Euro-Asia Economic Forum (under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) in Xi'an through September  25.

·       The Fifth Asia Finance Forum, hosted by the Asian Development Bank, begins in Manila, Philippines.

·       Jakarta and Brussels will sign the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement in Bali. The pact is expected to boost Indonesia's exports by over twofold, from a current trade value of around $30 billion. The deal comes after negotiations that spanned a decade, which concluded successfully in July.

·       The S-Tron Conference begins in Shanghai.  The two-day startup event allows start-up founders to pitch business plans they hope will become the next big thing.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japanese financial markets are closed for the Autumn Equinox.

·       South Korea PPI (August)

·       Australia S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (August)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (August)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (August)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (August)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat and panel discussion at the Financial Market Authority's 16th annual supervisory conference in Vienna, Austria.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill participates in a discussion at the Inaugural Pictet Research Institute Symposium in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       Switzerland Current Account Q2

·       France HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (July)

·       Great Britain S&P Global HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (September)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (July)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on maintenance of international peace and security: Artificial Intelligence and international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks on the economic outlook before the annual Spencer Fox Eccles Convocation presented by the National Association of Corporate Directors, Utah Chapter.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (September)

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/19)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/19)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/19)/ New Home Sales (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/19)/Building Permits (August)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (September)

·       Chile PPI (August)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (August)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (July)

·       EARNINGS: KB Home, Cintas

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Japan S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (August)/ RBA Payments System Board Annual

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Index (July)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (August)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (August)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at the United Nations Climate Summit 2025.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat at Bloomberg's Future of Finance conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives opening remarks at the Supervision Innovators Conference 2025 'AI in action: Shaping the future of banking and banking supervision' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Member Megan Greene gives a speech at the Glasgow Business School on “Supply Shocks and Monetary Policy.”

·       European Central Bank Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

·       Spain PPI (August)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (September)/ Ifo Current Conditions (September)/ Ifo Expectations (September)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (September)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (September)

·       Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion/ Corporate Profits (July)/ Industrial Production (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, September 25, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/ODI Conference on Global Finance begins in London, where researchers and practitioners will discuss frontier research on public finance, with a focus on low and middle-income countries.

·       BP launches an annual Energy Outlook, looking at the long-term trends and projections for global oil and gas markets to 2050.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump will host Turkish President Recep Erdogan in Washington for talks.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Governor Michael S. Barr participates in a conversation on bank stress testing at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin participates in a conversation with Roger Ferguson at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Monetary Policy Decision-Making” at the Cornell Club of New York, New York City, New York.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid speaks about monetary policy and the economic and banking outlook at the Mid-Sized Bank Coalition of America in Dallas.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before Crain's Power Lunch, "The Fed and the Economy: Trends for West Michigan.”

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives welcome remarks before the Fourth Annual International Roles of the U.S. Dollar Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Federal Reserve Board.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in conversation before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2025 Western Bankers Forum.

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (September)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/20)/ Wholesale Inventories (August)/ PCE Prices Q2/ Corporate Profits Q2/ GDP Sales Q2/ Existing Home Sales (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (September)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/25)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/24)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (July)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Accenture, CarMax

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Tokyo Game Show will be held for four days through September 28 at the Makuhari Messe convention center east of Tokyo. First held in 1996, it is one of the world's leading game events.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released.

·       Taiwan Retail Sales (August)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Car Production (August)/ CBI Distributive Trades (September)

·       The European Central Bank releases its Economic Bulletin

·       EU New Car Registrations (August)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Hungary Current Account Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       France Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Greece Total Credit (August)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/19)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Consumer Confidence Q3/ PPI (August)

Friday, September 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin participates in a conversation with Roger Ferguson at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Monetary Policy Decision-Making” at the Cornell Club of New York, New York City, New York.

·       Brazil Current Account (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (August)

·       Canada GDP (July)/ Wholesale Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (July)

·       USA PCE Price Index (August)/ Personal Income & Spending (August)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/26)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Panama Current Account Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) will be held at the United Nations.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The HKIB Annual Banking Conference is held in Hong Kong with Financial Secretary Paul Chan giving an opening keynote address.

·       South Korea Business Confidence (September)

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/20)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/20)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (August)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (August)

·       Philippines Business Confidence Q3/ Consumer Confidence Q3

·       India Bank Loan Growth (September/12)/ Deposit Growth (September/12)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/19)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Latvia hosts a two-day NATO military committee conference beginning in Riga.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives the keynote speech at the joint ECB-CEPR-Bocconi conference hosted by the University of Bocconi in Milan, Italy.

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Italy Business Confidence (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)

·       ECB Consumer Inflation Expectation

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (August)/ Jobseekers Total (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, September 27, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Turkmenistan Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Gabon holds national assembly elections.

·       The Seychelles holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds parliamentary elections.

·       Switzerland holds referendums on whether to accept a new version of a national electronic identity (e-ID) scheme, and separately a constitutional amendment to allow cantons to tax second homes for personal use.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (July)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Xi Hosts the SCO Summit and Celebrates the 80th Anniversary of the End of World War II with World Leaders, Trump’s Tariff Deals in Doubt, and Markets Focus on the Fed’s Beige Book and US Jobs Report

Summer is officially over and world capitals in the Northern Hemisphere are roaring back to work this week.  But the major geopolitical events of the week will be in China. 

President Xi Jinping is hosting the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit being held in Tianjin, China.  This will be a particularly important SCO gathering as Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and other leading Asian leaders will be in attendance and holding sideline meetings with Xi.  Of note, Prime Minister Modi’s sideline meeting with Xi shows continuing warming between the two nations – which has been historically frosty – as both struggle to deal with President Trump’s tough tariff regime. 

After the SCO, Xi will hold an extravaganza 80th anniversary celebration in Beijing marking the end of World War II for China.  Putin, Modi, and at least 28 other national leaders will be in attendance including North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.  The significance of his attendance is it suggests new warming in the relationship between Beijing and Pyongyang which has been strained in recent years.

What both events clearly show is a growing alignment between nations that are outright hostile to the United States and the West with those nations hardest hit by the Trump tariffs, giving the combined nations a reason to work together. Seeing the leaders of China, Russia, North Korea, India, Iran, Cuba, and other nations sitting together watching an enormous Chinese military parade will drive that point home.  What comes out of these meetings will likely be quite impactful on global markets in the weeks and months ahead.

Here in the US, two issues will be of major focus to markets this week.  First, the decision by a Federal Appeals Court on Friday ruled that President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is illegal.  These were put in place on “Liberation Day” on April 2nd.  The decision upholds an earlier ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade and is now likely headed to the U.S. Supreme Court.  But in the meantime, it puts into doubt the legality of Trump’s trade deals with the UK, EU, Japan, and South Korea.  Moreover, it the US Supreme Court upholds this decision, it will mean the Trump Administration will have to repay the billions of tariffs collected since April, estimated at roughly $142 billion.

The second event is the ongoing battle over whether President Trump can fire Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook.  A federal judge on Friday held an emergency hearing on the matter but did not issue a ruling.  Our view is that this battle will go all the way to the Supreme Court and will likely not hold Cook back from voting at the upcoming Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting on interest rates later this month.

Turning to look at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, and starting with the US, there will be a number of important reports out this week. The big events will be the Federal Reserve’s release of the Beige Book on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday.  Also, this week, the ISM indices will be out, giving more clarity on the manufacturing and services sectors, and the JOLTS print on Wednesday and the ADP report on Thursday.

In Asia, Japan releases Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations for Q2, which is expected to show as much as 3% growth year over year.   In China, the August PMIs are out on Sunday, and manufacturing data is out on Monday, while services data is out on Wednesday.

In Europe, we will see the Eurozone CPI report on Tuesday as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech on Monday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, August 31, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit begins in Tianjin, China hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and North Korean Leader Kim Jong-Il are expected  to attend.  Putin will afterwards travel to Beijing for meetings with Xi.

·       Today is Kyrgyzstan Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS General PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Polish Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw and the visit the border between Poland and Belarus. She will then travel to Bulgaria to meet with Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov and visit a defense factor.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Oman will implement a "golden visa" for investors and wealthy residents..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 1, 2025

Global

·        Egypt will host a G20 meeting on food security in Cairo.

·       South Korea assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of September.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Guyana holds presidential and parliamentary elections. Centre-left President Irfaan Ali of the People's Progressive Party Civic (PPP/C) is likely to be re-elected. However, opposition parties will likely secure a majority in the National Assembly (legislature).

·       Today is Labor Day in the United State and Canada. It is a national holiday in both countries.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Mexican judges elected in the country's first judicial election in June will take office.

·       The Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission continues its annual meeting in Panama City.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Business Confidence (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Fiscal Balance (July)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (July)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (August)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Uzbekistan Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (July)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Building Permits (July)/ Company Gross Profits Q2/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (August)/ Business Inventories Q2/ Private House Approvals (July)/ Commodity Prices (August)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q2/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers for European Affairs through September 2 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

·       The EU Parliament returns to work from summer holiday.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to Lithuania to meet with President Gitana Nauseda and then visit the Lithuania and Belarus border.  She will then travel to Romania and meet with President Nicusor Dan and Prime Minister Illie Bolojan and visit the military port of Constana.

·       The British Parliament returns to work from their summer holiday.

·       Moldova begins negotiations with the EU about joining.

·       Today is Slovakia Constitution Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a dinner speech at the 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair a panel on 'Autonomy through the internal market and the capital markets union' at 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will chair a panel on 'Resilience, autonomy and cooperation in payments and clearing systems' at the 2025 ECB Legal Conference titled 'Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation' in Frankfurt Germany.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (August)/ BoE Consumer Credit (July)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Hungary PPI (July)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (July)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ ECB Schnabel Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (August)

Tuesday, September 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to Mexico and Ecuador for bilateral meetings through September 4.

·       The US Congress returns to work from its August recess.

·       Brazil's Supreme Court hear legal arguments regarding attempted coup charges against former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       USA Redbook (August)/30/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (August)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (September)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (August)/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Vietnam, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will meet with and give remarks to local leaders in Eastern Hokkaido, Japan.

·       New Zealand Export Prices Q2/ Import Prices Q2/ Terms of Trade Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/02)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (August)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q2/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (August)

·       Japan BoJ Himino Speech

·       Thailand Business Confidence (August)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (August)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will chair a panel on 'Independent administrative discretion and the rule of law' at 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado will participate on a panel entitled 'Independent administrative discretion and the rule of law' at 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany

·       Romania PPI (July)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (July)

·       France Budget Balance (July)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (August)/ New Car Sales (August)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI Flash (August)/ ECB Elderson Speech/ ECB Machado Speech

·       Italy PPI (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Lebanese Armed Forces will present a plan for Hezbollah's disarmament to Lebanon's Cabinet.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q2

Wednesday, September 3, 2025

Global

·       The United Nations General Assembly will meet on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will host Polish President Karol Nawrocki at the White House.

·       Jamaica holds House of Representatives elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       St Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem gives speech at the Peterson Institute in Washington, D.C.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a fireside chat hosted by the Minnesota Women's Economic Roundtable.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/29)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/29)/JOLTs Job Openings (July)/ Factory Orders (July)/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/29)/EARNINGS: Salesforce, HPE, Gitlab, Dollar Tree

·       Brazil Industrial Production (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q2

·       Colombia Exports (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will hold a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, with 26 foreign leaders in attendance.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (August)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Japan S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August/22)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Union's new floating price cap on Russian oil, set at 15% below the six-month average market price, will take effect.

·       The Eastern Economic Forum will be held in Vladivostok Russia through September 6.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give welcoming remarks at the 9th ESRB Conference "Broadening horizons: ESRB’s next decade of impact" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a keynote speech at the Bank of England and Warwick Business School Innovation In Money and Payments Conference.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (August)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q2

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)/ PPI (August)

·       Great Britain BoE L Mann Speech / S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudia Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (August)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Jordan PPI (July)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Angola will host its "Angola Oil & Gas" conference in Luanda.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (August)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q2

Thursday, September 4, 2025 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s top trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, will meet with US trade negotiators in Washington today and Friday.

·       US Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran will get a confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee to fill out the term of Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler.

·       Bloomberg holds its Bloomberg Power Players New York Conference.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before an Economic Club of New York Signature Luncheon.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated Q&A before mHub Industry Disruptor Series event.

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (August)/ ADP Employment Change (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August)/30/ Unit Labour Costs Q2/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ ISM Services PMI (August)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil Stocks Change (August/29)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/03) EARNINGS: Broadcom, Lululemon

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (June)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (August)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (August)

·       Colombia PPI (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (July)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August)/30/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August)/30

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Household Spending (July)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (August)

·       Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Energy Ministers in Copenhagen, Denmark through September 5.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Handelsblatt banking summit will be held in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium

·       Hungary Retail Sales (July)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (August)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (August)/ DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (August)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (August)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (July)

·       Ireland Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GNP Q2

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/29)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Business Confidence Q3

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Friday, September 5, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Full & Part Time Employment Chg (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Average Hourly Wages (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (August)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Average Hourly Earnings (August)/ Government Payrolls (August)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (August)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (August)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (August)

·       Costa Rica    Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (August)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan will host the 12th Japan-Australia meeting of foreign and defense ministers in Tokyo.

·       Singapore’s parliament goes into session.  This is the first gathering of parliament since the May elections when the ruling People’s Action Party won a commanding majority.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (July)/ Average Cash Earnings (July)/ Overtime Pay (July)/ Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Economic Index (July)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (July)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/29)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Reform holds it two-day national conference in Birmingham, England.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Factory Orders (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (July)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (August)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (July)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Italy Retail Sales (July)

·       Euro Area Employment Change Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Greece Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Serbia PPI (August)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (August)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, September 6, 2025

Global

·       There will be an OPEC+ ministerial meeting in Vienna, Austria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia     Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 9 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump Hosting An Extraordinary Meeting with Ukrainian President and Six European Leaders, Israel Poised to Approve A Controversial New West Bank Housing Plan, China Seeks a Deal with India on Their Border Dispute, and Global Central Bankers Converge on Jackson Hole

The busiest August we can remember in a long time looks to intensify this week.  Following President Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, Trump will host Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House, seeking a ceasefire in Ukraine and possibly longer-term peace terms.  In an extraordinary move, Zelensky will be accompanied by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

It appears, according to numerous reports, that President Trump is considering unprecedented US security guarantees for Ukraine in return for a peace deal.  But the entire situation remains tense and very much in flux.  Markets will be watching all of this closely tomorrow to get some indication of movement one way or another.

Meanwhile, Israel’s Higher Planning Committee will be considering a highly controversial plan to allow the building of 3,400 new homes in the West Bank for Israeli settlers.  The building plan, known as the E1 Settlement Project, would take place east of Jerusalem and is likely to be approved.  By doing so, it is seen as likely to block efforts to establish a Palestinian State, as Palestinian leaders had seen the land where the homes would be built as where they would build their capital.  EU leaders have urged Israel to refrain from approving the deal.

In Asia this week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit New Delhi for the first time in three years to discuss possible measures to reduce troops on the Himalayan border, further reducing tensions between the two nations.   Later in the week, India’s Foreign Minister, S. Jainshankar, will travel to Moscow for talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The meeting comes after President Trump slapped 25% secondary tariffs on India on top of the existing 25% tariffs for their trade in Russian oil.   Markets will be watching closely for any movement between India and Russia – either pledging to continue the oil purchases or suggesting a slowdown.

The global economic radar screen this week is also a busy one.  The big event is the annual Jackson Hole Symposium later this week where central bankers from around the world will gather to talk and speak to the theme of event ““Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.”    We are reminded that at last year’s Symposium, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell said it was time to lower rates, which the Fed then followed through on.  Will we hear him say something similar this year in his speech a month in advance of the Fed’s FOMC September meeting?

Also happening concurrently with the Jackson Hole Symposium will be the SALT Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, bringing together top crypto business leaders, US regulators, and members of Congress. 

In terms of major economic reports this week, in the Americas,  the US FOMC minutes from July are released on Wednesday, and  Canada releases July CPI figures on Tuesday.  In Asia, China’s central bank interest rate decision is announced on Wednesday, South Korea’s July PPI on Thursday, and Japan’s July CPI data on Friday.  And in Europe, the UK releases July CPI on Wednesday, Germany’s June manufacturing index is out Tuesday, and July PPI data on Wednesday, Eurozone HICP inflation data on Wednesday, and on Thursday, PMI data for the Eurozone, France, Germany, and the UK. 

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, August 17, 2025

Global

·       Today is the 80th anniversary of the publication of George Orwell’s Animal Farm.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Bolivia holds presidential and parliamentary elections. The elections are shaped by significant internal divisions within the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, as current President Luis Arce and former president Evo Morales, who has been barred from running, vie for influence.

· The International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI) conference takes place in Montreal, Canada, from August 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q2/ Unemployment Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Summit of the regional Southern African Development Community (SADC) holds its 45th Ordinary Summit of Heads of State and Government in Antananarivo, Madagascar.

·       Today is Independence Day in Gabon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 18, 2025

Global

·       the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House to discuss Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week and next steps toward a possible cease fire in the Ukraine war.  Also attending the meeting will be ATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Finnish President Alexander Stubb.

·       Canada holds by-elections which could see Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre return to parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Housing Starts (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (June)

·       Chile Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       USA NAHB Housing Market Index (August)

·       El Salvador PPI (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit India to discuss drawing down troops at their disputed border.

·       The U.S. and South Korea will hold their annual military drills, known as Ulchi Freedom Shield. About 18,000 South Korean soldiers will take part in the live-fire exercises amid North Korea's warnings of reprisals for what it says is a "direct military provocation.”

·       German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will visit Japan for meetings with Japanese officials to discuss bolstering their strategic relationship.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (July)/ Services NZ PSI (July)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (June)

·       India Unemployment Rate (July)

·       China FDI (YTD) (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Financial Times Business Book of the Year longlist announced.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Industrial Production Q2

·       Spain Balance of Trade (June)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (June)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (July)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (July)/ GDP (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will make a visit to Armenia and Belarus for a two-day visit.  He will then travel on to Pakistan for bilateral meetings.

·       US envoys Thomas Barrack and Morgan Ortagus visit Beirut, Lebanon for meetings on how to further the peace process in the country and also further urge the disarming of Hezbollah by the Lebanese Army.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo and the rebel group M23 to sign a peace agreement.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

Tuesday, August 19, 2025

Global

·       The 9th Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) begins in Yokohama, Japan and runs through August 22. The conference is led by Japan and co-hosted by the United Nations, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), World Bank and African Union Commission (AUC). The theme of the conference is “Co-create innovative solutions with Africa”.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on women and peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Fostering New Technology in the Banking System” at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025, Teton Village, Wyoming.

·       SEC Chair Paul Atkins will participate in a fireside chat at SALT’s Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI Median (July)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (July)

·       USA Building Permits (July)/ Housing Starts (July)/ Redbook (August/16)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/15)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand PPI Input & Output Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change & Index/ RBA Connolly Speech

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Current Account (June)

·       Slovakia Current Account (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (July)/ Inflation Expectations (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (July)

Wednesday, August 20, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium at Teton Village, Wyoming.  The theme of this year’s Symposium is “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.”  You can access all papers presented at the Symposium HERE.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the topic of payments at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025, Teton Village, Wyoming.

·       FOMC Minutes released/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/15)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/15)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/15)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (July)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (July)/ Economic Activity (June)/ Leading Indicator (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono will host German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul in Jakarta.

·       The Thailand Electronics Circuit Asia 2025 trade show kicks off in Bangkok. The three-day event will bring together hundreds of companies from across the tech supply chain, with a major focus on printed circuit boards, a key component used in all types of electronic devices.

·       The Taiwan Automation Intelligence and Robot Show opens in Taipei. Exhibitors at the four-day fair will show off the latest advances in smart manufacturing, robotics, artificial intelligence, and more.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor (business services) Michelle McPhee and assistant governor (financial system) Brad Jones take part in an online panel discussion at The Future of Money webinar.

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Machinery Orders (June)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (August)/ Lending Facility Rate (August)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (July)/ Current Account Q2

·       India M3 Money Supply (August/08)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde attends a meeting of the International Business Council of the World Economic Forum in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       Russian central bank publishes household inflation expectations.

·       Germany PPI (July)

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (July)/ Retail Price Index (July)/ PPI Input (July)/ PPI Output (July)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Greece Current Account (June)

·       Euro Area CPI (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Labour Cost Index Q2

·       Italy Current Account (June)/ Residential Property Prices (June)

·       Russia PPI (July)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel's Higher Planning Committee will vote on the E1 West Bank settlement plan which could allow 3,400 more Israeli settlement homes in the area.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

·       Oman Inflation Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (July)

Thursday, August 21, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by a briefing on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook before the Metro Atlanta Chamber executive committee meeting.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (August)/ PPI (July)/ Raw Materials Prices (July)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (August/16)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index/ Continuing Jobless Claims (August/09)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (August)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (August)/ Philly Fed Employment & New Orders & Prices Paid (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)/ Existing Home Sales (July)/ CB Leading Index (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/21)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/20)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (June)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (August)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (July)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Credit Card Spending (July)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)               

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August/16)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)

·       India HSBC Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam S. Jaishankar.  They will discuss “key issues on our bilateral agenda, as well as key aspects of cooperation within international frameworks." 
Economic Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (July)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/15)

·       France HCOB Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)

·       Germany HCOB Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)/ Bundesbank Monthly Report

·       Euro Area HCOB Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)/ Construction Output (June)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (August)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (July)/ Employment Growth (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ PPI (July)

·       Slovenia PPI (July)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (July)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (June)

Friday, August 22, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on entitled “The Economic Outlook and Framework Review” at the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Moran, Wyoming.

·       Mexico Economic Activity (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Mid-month Core Inflation Rate (August)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (August)

·       Canada Retail Sales (June)/ Manufacturing Sales (July)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

·       Chile PPI (July)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/22)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (July)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand's Criminal Court is due to hand down its verdict on former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a lese majeste case. The 75-year-old Thaksin is accused of insulting the monarchy during an interview with the South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo in May 2015.

·       In South Korea, the People Power party to decide a new leader from a shortlist of four at its national convention. The embattled conservative party’s support has plummeted after disgraced former PPP president Yoon Suk Yeol was removed from office

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (July)

·       Indonesia Current Account Q2/ M2 Money Supply (July)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (July)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (July)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (July)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       France Business Confidence (August)/ Business Climate Indicator (August)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (August)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (July)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Euro Area     ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (July)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2

Saturday, August 23, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea's President Lee Jae Myung will make his first overseas trip for a bilateral summit when he travels to Tokyo to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. After his Japan trip, Lee will head to Washington for a summit with U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday, August 25.

·       Taiwan holds a referendum on whether to restart its Maanshan nuclear power plant, the shutdown of which marked the end of the island's atomic energy era in May. The opposition Taiwan People's Party pushed for the vote on the grounds that reactivation is necessary for energy stability and security. President Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party has said he will vote "no." The referendum coincides with a handful of districts voting in recall elections against opposition Kuomintang lawmakers, after a larger first set of recall attempts all failed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel discussion at the annual Economic Policy Symposium entitled “The policy implications of labor market transition in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will give a speech at the Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 24, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Ukraine Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Global Week Ahead

The AI Action Summit Convenes in Paris, Trump Meets with Indian Prime Minister Modi as Secretary of State Rubio Meets with EU Foreign Ministers, and Powell Goes to Capitol Hill 

February 9 - 16, 2025

Europe serves as the host of two important geopolitical events this week.  First, the growing opportunity and risk of Artificial Intelligence (AI) dominate the attention of world leaders and prominent business CEOs this week as the AI Action Summit kicks off in Paris.  Co-hosted by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron, the event will include attendees from 80 countries, including U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.  There are expected to be more than 100 side events, and in total, more than 10,000 people will attend.   The event is expected to focus on both the risks and opportunities AI offers.

Second, European foreign ministers will gather and meet with newly sworn-in U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday for the first time.  Rubio will also meet with Ukrainian Foreign minster Andrii Sybiha to discuss the situation in Ukraine and likely President Trump’s plans to seek a peace treaty with Russia.  Rubio will then travel on to the Munich Security Conference in Germany following by visits to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to discuss the situation in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.

While all this is going on, in the U.S., President Trump will meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington to discuss trade issues and how to further expand the mutual defense and security relationship between India and the U.S. including the opportunity for India to increase purchases of leading U.S. military technology.  The relationship between Trump and Modi was strong during his first term and has remained so ever since.  What market are likely to be focused on most of all is any discussion between the two leaders over attracting manufacturing in China to India and the U.S.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this coming week, markets will be focused on Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s semiannual economic reports to Congress.  Powell starts Tuesday when he testifies before the Senate Banking Committee and then on Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee.

Powell’s testimony comes as US CPI, retail sales, and industrial production reports are released this week. 

Turning to Asia, China’s CPI and PPI are out this week, and Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey and PPI are released this week.   In Europe, the UK’s 4th quarter GDP is out as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde meets with the European Parliament to discuss the economy and ECB policy.

Below is what else we are watching closely in the coming week:

Sunday, February 9, 2025

Global

·         Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador holds presidential elections and parliamentary elections.  137 seats in the National Assembly are up for a vote. And incumbent President Daniel Noboa is likely to win re-election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese asset freeze sanctions on 18 Chinese companies for helping Russia evade sanctions will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will transition from the Soviet-era BRELL grid to the Continental Europe Synchronous Area.

·       Kosovo holds parliamentary elections for 120 seats.

·       Lichtenstein holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Prince Karim Al-Hussaini, the Aga Khan IV and spiritual leader of Ismaili Muslims will be buried in Aswan, Egypt.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 10, 2025

Global

·       The AI Action Summit convenes in Paris begins in Paris.  It will be co-chaired by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron.  Multiple leaders from around the world are expected to attend.

·       United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres travels to Paris to attend the AI Action Summit.  He is expected to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and other leaders on the sidelines of the Summit to discuss other issues including Ukraine, Syria, and Gaza.

·       The United Nations he Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Candidates for the Organization of American States' new secretary general will present their candidacies.

·       The Delphi Forum will begin in Washington, D.C.  The Greek-focused forum will include speakers from Congress and business.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Auto Production (January)

·       Brazil Car Production (January)/ New Car Registrations (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Bank of Canada Market Participants Survey

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s new targeted 10 percent tariffs on the US are due to take effect. 

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi travels to Paris to co-chair the AI Action Summit through Tuesday.  He goes on to Washington to meet with President Trump on Wednesday and Thursday.

·       Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown will visit China through February 14.  New Zealand has objected to the meetings over security concerns.

·       US and South Korean military forces will take part in a live-fire training exercise in South Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Current Account (December)/ Bank Lending (January)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (January)

·       Australia Building Permits (December)/ Private House Approvals (December)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (December)/ Construction Output Q4

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q4

·       China New Yuan Loans (January)/ M2 Money Supply (January)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (January)/ Total Social Financing (January)/ Vehicle Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers for Development in Warsaw, Poland.

·       German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will meet European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius in Berlin, Germany.

·       Church of England General Synod meeting begins. On the agenda are safeguarding proposals following the independent review by Keith Makin into the church’s handling of allegations of serious abuse by the late Archbishop John Smyth and other church leaders.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will brief member of the European Parliament on
the state of European and global economic affairs as well as giving an update on the European Central Bank’s activities.  The meeting takes place in Strasbourg, France.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Market Infrastructure  Sasha Mills will deliver remarks at the Chair/CEO/INEDs Roundtable for UK Financial Market Infrastructure firms.

·       Netherlands Manufacturing Production (December)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (December)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Participation Rate (December)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (December)

·       Greece Industrial Production (December)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (January)

·       Germany Bundesbank Balz Speech

·       Hungary Budget Balance (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran’ celebrates Revolution Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (January)

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (December)/ SACCI Business Confidence (January)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (January)

Tuesday, February 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee to present his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

·       Jordan's King Abdullah II will meet with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C.   They will discuss the situation in Gaza as well as Syria. Abdullah is also expected to discuss the pause of US Agency for International Development (AID) aid to Jordan which has been paused.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on Bank Regulation at the 2025 Iowa Bankers Association Bank Management and Policy Conference.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on the economic outlook before the University of Kentucky Gatton School of Business and Economics 2025 Economic Outlook Conference.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote remarks before the Pace University Economics Society in New York.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (January)/ Redbook (February/08)/WASDE Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/07)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (January)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (December)

·       Canada Building Permits (December)

·       El Salvador PPI (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippine midterm election season  for parliamentary and local elections officially begins. 

·       Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) Board of Directors holds its first board meeting in the US.  They will visit the company’s Arizona facility – its first cutting edge facility to build overseas.

·       Japan celebrates National Foundation Day, a national holiday celebrating the founding of the nation in 660BC. Government offices, schools, banks and many companies close for the day

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (February)/ NAB Business Confidence (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Members of the European Parliament and representatives from the European Commission and the Polish Council Presidency will assess the current state of EU-US trade relations, multilateralism, and the EU’s potential responses if the US imposes tariffs on European products.

·       Members of the European Parliament will meet to discuss how to address the US government’s recent decision to restrict the export of AI Chips to certain EU Member States.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a keynote speech at the London campus of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, titled “Are we underestimating changes in financial markets?”

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in the Nuremberg Talks Series' panel discussion organized by Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung in Nürnberg, Germany.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann gives a speech at Leeds Beckett Univeristy on “Economic Prospects.”

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (January)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (January)

·       France Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Turkey Retail Sales (December)/ Auto Production (January)/ Auto Sales (January)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (January)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (December)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (December)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Bruno Lemarquis, the United Nation’s Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). He will brief reporters virtually on the situation in the DRC.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (December)

Wednesday, February 12, 2025

Global

·       The United Nation’s Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the 1591 Committee (dealing with Sudan). Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultation on the Middle East (Syria).

·       OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee to present his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Washington, D.C. for meetings with President Trump through February 13.  The discussions are likely to focus on India’s trade surplice and how to improve Indian investment in the US.  They will also discuss how to continue to attract manufacturing in China to both India and the US.  A big focus will be on the growing defense cooperation between the two countries.

·       Ontario premier Doug Ford, chair of the Council of the Federation, leads a joint mission of Canadian premiers to Washington to meet key members of the Trump administration, Congress and business leaders to lobby for maintaining strong Canada-US relations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on stablecoins at the A Very Stable Conference: Stablecoin Infrastructure for Real World Applications, San Francisco, California.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will give remarks at the Atlanta Chapter of the National Association of Corporate Directors.

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (February/07)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI (January)/ Fed Chair Powell Testimony/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February/07)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Monthly Budget Statement (January)/ Fed Waller Speech

·       Canada BoC Summary of Deliberations

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam holds an Extraordinary Session of the National Assembly in Hanoi through February 17.  The meeting brings together the Standing Boards of the National Assembly with the Government’s party Committees and they will focus on national defense and security, approve four laws and five resolutions designed to revamp institutional frameworks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Home Loans Q4/ Investment Lending for Homes Q4

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (December)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (December)

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (January)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment NOV

·       India Industrial Production (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Manufacturing Production (December)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Defense Minister John Healey convenes the Ukraine Defense Contact Grupo in Ramstein, Germany.

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will join the foreign ministers from France, Germany, Poland, Italy, the United Kingdom and Spain will meet with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha in Paris, France.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a fireside chat at MNI Connect event.

·       Megan Greene, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene speaks on the impact of global developments on the UK at the Institute of Directors in London.

·       The European Central Bank releases its Economic Bulletin on the EU’s Green investment needs in the EU and their funding.

·       Italy Industrial Production (December)

·       Euro Area ECB Elderson Speech

·       Germany Bundesbank Mauderer Speech/ Current Account (December)/ Bundesbank Nagel Speech

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.  Erdogan will also attend the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council meetings (HLSCC) in Indonesia and Pakistan.  Erdogan will also travel to Malaysia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan Industrial Production (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union (AU) Assembly and the AU Executive Council will meet in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Thursday, February 13, 2025

Global

·       The United Nations Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by a consultation on the Middle East (Yemen). 

·       The International Energy Administration releases its February Oil Market Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to the Munich Security Conference in Germany and then will travel on to Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia through February 18.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (December)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (February/08)/ PPI (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/07)/ Total Household Debt Q4/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/13)/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/12)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (January)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (January)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai will travel to China to sign an agreement on a cross-border rail line for transporting coal.

·       The Indonesia Motor Show begins in Jakarta and runs through February 23.  More than 30 auto manufacturers will be in attendance.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (January)/ Business Inflation Expectations Q1

·       Japan PPI (January)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Indonesia Car Sales (January)

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (January)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Chiefs are scheduled to meet in Brussels.

· French President Emmanuel Macron hosts a conference on Syria in Paris to support a fair and inclusive political.

·       Pope Francis hosts a workshop, Tax Justice and Solidarity, with speakers including former South African president Thabo Mbeki and Brazil’s current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded interview at the Frankfurt Digital Finance Conference 2025.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (January)/ GDP (December)/ Business Investment Q4/ Goods Trade Balance (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Construction Orders (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (January)

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (January)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (January)/ Bundesbank Nagel Speech

·       Romania Industrial Production (December)/ Current Account (December)

·       Turkey Current Account (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/07)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (December)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB Economic Bulletin/ Industrial Production (December)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Current Account (December)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (December)/ Mining Production (December)

Friday, February 14, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (December)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (December)/ Wholesale Sales (December)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

·       USA Export & Import Prices (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Capacity Utilization (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)/ Business Inventories (December)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (December)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (February/14)

·       Colombia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (December)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (December)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (December)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export & Import Prices (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (January)/ Food Inflation (January)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (February/08)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/08)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

·       Indonesia Property Price Index Q4

·       Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

·       India WPI Food Index (January)/ WPI Fuel (January)/ WPI Inflation (January)/ WPI Manufacturing (January)/ Bank Loan Growth (January/31)/ Deposit Growth (January/31)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/07)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q4/ GDP (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Munich Security Forum begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Balance of Trade (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Household Consumption (December)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (January)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Hungary Construction Output (December)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (January)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Spain Inflation Rate (January)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Employment Change Q4

·       Greece Inflation Rate (January)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Serbia Building Permits (December)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (January)/ M1 Money Supply (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Saturday, February 15, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Abkhazia holds presidential elections following the resignation of Aslan Bzhania following wide-spread national protests.

·       Taiwan holds local by-elections.

·       Togo holds senatorial legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Serbia celebrates Statehood Day, a two-day national holiday marking the day in 1804 when the first Serbian Uprising took place.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union (AU) Summit begins in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 16, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea has a national holiday celebrating the birth of former leader Kim Jon-il who died in 2011.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, his conservative challenger Friedrich Merz plus Alice Weidel of the AfD and Robert Habeck from the Greens take part in a four-way TV debate on German channel RTL ahead of next week’s federal election

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union Heads of State and Government Summit finishes.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Donald Trump Returns to Power, The World Economic Forum Convenes in Davos, Rubio Calls A Meeting of the Quad,  and Japan’s Prime Minister Gives His First Major Policy Speech

January 19 - 26, 2025

Monday will be a historic day in the United States as Donald Trump is sworn in as the 47th President of the United States for the second time.  The world seems to be holding its collective breath, waiting to see what President Trump will do right out of the box after being sworn in.  At this point in time, we know he will sign and issue more than 100 Executive Orders that will cover issues ranging from moving on his promised wide-ranging tariff regime, declaring a state of emergency on the US-Mexican border, loosening oil and gas oil permitting immediately, giving a 90-day extension to TikTok from being forced to shut down, to moving on his vow to begin rounding up illegal aliens and deporting them.  

The incoming Trump Administration is not wasting any time on the national security and geopolitical front, with incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio (who is expected to be confirmed by the Senate and sworn into office on Monday) convening a meeting Tuesday of the Quad – the foreign ministers of Japan, Australia, India, and the US – in Washington to talk about next steps for the mutual security group.  This is seen as a strongly positive signal by the incoming Trump Administration that they intend to maintain the Biden security policies in the Indo-Pacific and ramp it up. 

We also note that Trump spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday.  The call reportedly covered the future of TikTok, trade, and Fentanyl trafficking.  We also hear Trump telling aides that he wants to visit China for meetings with Xi this year.

Also happening this week is the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.  The mega-event runs for four days (January 20 – 24), and this year, a large number of foreign leaders will be speaking (and President Trump will address the group virtually).  You can see the full agenda and list of speakers HERE.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the big reports markets are watching are going to be in Asia.  The Bank of Japan meets on interest rates on Friday, while China will be setting its Loan Prime Rate, although the market consensus at this point is that it will remain unchanged.

In Europe, the Eurogroup (all EU finance ministers plus European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde) will meet to discuss global and EU economic conditions.  Also, in the EU this week, Germany and France released manufacturing reports, while the UK labor market report is out on Tuesday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, January 19, 2025

Global

·       Today is the Orthodox Christian Feast of the Epiphany.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President-elect Trump will hold a rally in Washington, D.C, in advance of his inauguration (tomorrow).  He will also participate in a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 20, 2025

Global

·       The World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland and runs through January 24.   More than 2,500 people are expected to attend.   You can see the full agenda HERE.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East (Gaza).  UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President-elect Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States.  Once he takes the oath, Trump is expected to sign and issue more than 100 Executive Orders – including one declaring a state of emergency on the Mexican border.

· Argentina’s President Javier Milei will be in Washington, D.C., to attend the Trump Inauguration.

·       It is Martin Luther King Day, a federal holiday.  Financial markets are closed in the US.

· Ecuador presidential candidates will debate ahead of the upcoming election on February 9.

·       In Panama City, Panama, the trial begins for Panama ex-presidents Ricardo Martinelli and Juan Carlos Varela, accused of money laundering with Brazilian group Odebrecht.

·       In Tapachula, Mexico, a migrant caravan is expected to depart southern Mexico ahead of Donald Trump taking office as US president.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (December)/ Leading Indicator (December)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Hong Kong, Chinese property developer Country Garden faces a liquidation hearing days after it reported delayed financial results for 2023 that showed a $24 billion loss.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Machinery Orders (November)/ Capacity Utilization (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Tertiary Industry Index (November)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (January)/ FDI (YTD) (December)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. The President of the Eurogroup will invite ministers to engage in a strategic political discussion on the euro area's key policy priorities and the Eurogroup's role in addressing them.  This will include discussions about innovations in wholesale payments and the digital Euro.

·       Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov chairs government meeting in Moscow on Russians living abroad. The Putin government has been working to find new ways to exert greater control of Russians abroad.

·       German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock hosts press conference with Lithuania counterpart Kestutis Budrys to discuss mutual and regional security concerns.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (December)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (December)

·       Greece Current Account (November)

·       Italy Construction Output (November)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (November)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account Q4/ PPI (December)

·       Slovakia Current Account (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Tuesday, January 21, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Countering terrorism in Africa.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Foreign ministers from the Quad Nations – Australia, India, Japan, and the US – will meet in Washington to discuss regional security issues and will be chaired by incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio.  The meeting shows an early emphasis on strengthening regional partnerships that outgoing President Joe Biden championed to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific, despite Biden and Trump’s vastly different world views.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Retail Sales (November)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI Median (December)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (December)

·       USA Redbook (January/18)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (November)/ Imports (November)/ ISE Economic Activity (November)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea's Constitutional Court holds hearings on Tuesday and Thursday in the impeachment trial of embattled President Yoon Suk Yeol. Last week, Yoon became the first sitting president in South Korean history to be arrested, but he is still fighting all charges and refusing to attend court hearings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kazakhstan PPI (December)

·       New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (December)/ Services NZ PSI (December)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (December)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (January/21)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (December)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council  (EU Finance Ministers and ECB Board members) meets in Brussels.  They will discuss the situation in Ukraine, the EU economic governance framework and the 2025 Alert Mechanism Report and the draft Council recommendation on the economic policy of the euro area. 

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Education ministers through January 22.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen addresses the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

·       Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubayev in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Union New Car Registrations (December)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (November)/ Employment Change (November)/ Claimant Count Change (December)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (December)

·       Slovenia PPI (December)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January)/ ZEW Current Conditions (January)

·       Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (December)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (December)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (November)/ Mining Production (November)

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, January 22, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on Haiti followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/17)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (January/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/17)/ CB Leading Index (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/17)

·       Canada PPI (December)/ Raw Materials Prices (December)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (January)

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q4

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (December)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (December)

·       India M3 Money Supply (January/10)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with French President Emmanual Macron in Paris for bilateral talks.   The meeting will also mark the 1963 Elysee Treaty of Friendship between the two countries.

·       Ireland’s parliament will meet to elect a new three-way coalition government.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov chairs the council dedicated to the 'protection of rights of citizens living abroad.”

·       Germany CDU Leader Friedrich Merz on Germany's gives a keynote speech in Berlin on foreign and European policy priorities.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in the Stakeholder Dialogue 'Beyond Crisis: Unlocking Europe's Potential' during World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (December)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (December)/ Employment Growth (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (November)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (November)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (December)/ Total Credit Growth (December)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (November)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (December)/ Retail Sales (November)

Thursday, January 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organizations (League of Arab States). In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Canada,  today is the deadline for the Liberal Party to announce its candidacy in the leadership vote on March 9, following current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (January)/

·       Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (January/18)/ EIA Natural Gas/ Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stocks Change (January/17)/ EIA Distillate Fuel Production & Stocks Change (January/17)/ EIA Gasoline Production/ Heating Oil Stocks/ Refinery Crude Runs Change (January/17)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/22)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (November)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India holds local elections in a number of cities.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (November)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January/18)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/18)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (December)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England External member of the Monetary Policy Committee Carolyn Wilkins gives a speech at Fitch Ratings entitled “Geopolitics and financial stability: a plan beats no plan” in London.

·       Netherlands Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (January)/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (January)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/17)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (November)

·       France Business Confidence (January)/ Business Climate Indicator (January)

·       Poland Retail Sales (December)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Great Britain CBI Business Optimism Index Q1/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (January)

·       Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (November)/ Building Permits (November)

Friday, January 24, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Washington, D.C., the Smithsonian’s National Zoo puts the giant pandas Bao Li and Qing Bao on public display at their renovated habitat on Asia Trail.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (January)/ New Housing Price Index (December)/ Manufacturing Sales (December)

·       Chile PPI (December)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (November)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Existing Home Sales (December)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Final (January)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (January)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Final (January)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (January)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/24)

·       Paraguay PPI (December)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto visits India as it celebrates Republic Day, and the two countries mark 75 years of diplomatic relations. The Indonesian leader has embarked on a whirlwind of overseas tours since taking office in October.

·       Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivers his first policy address at the start of a new parliamentary session.  Ishiba is expected to announce Japan's biggest-ever budget bill, with debate expected over possible changes to income tax rates.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Australia PMI Flash (January)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (December)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and Quarterly Outlook Report

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q4/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (December)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Index (November)

·       Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q4

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/17)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Unification Day in Romania, celebrating when, in 1859, the two Romanian principalities of “Moldavia” and “Wallachia” came together to form the “Union of Romanian Principalities.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a panel discussion "The effects of central bank digital currencies" at the 13th Institute for Law and Finance Conference on the Future of the Financial Sector "Bank Disintermediation – Causes and Consequences" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Spain PPI (December)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ CBI Distributive Trades (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)

Saturday, January 25, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Greece holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday celebrating the country’s constitution coming into force in 1950.  There will be a large military parade through New Delhi.

·       Today is Australia Day, a national holiday commemorating the landing of The First Fleet in 1788 led by Captain Arthur Phillip, who later became the British colony’s first governor. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belarus holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The Implications of Syria’s Assad Regime Stunningly Collapse, What Next for South Korea? Why Romania’s Election Crisis Matters to Markets, And A Big Week for Central Banks.

There is an old saying that in life, there are weeks when nothing happens. and then there are weeks when decades happen.  This has been one of those weeks, and the fallout will likely be felt for a long time.  First, the more than 50-year despotic Assad Dynasty in Syria has collapsed, suddenly and significantly reshaping the Middle East.

It all happened in less than two weeks. when rebels launched a surprise, lightning-fast offensive from northwestern Syria, stunning the Syrian Army. While we will be writing a more in-depth analysis of what this means for markets, we would two initial market-impactful implications:  

First, aside from Bashar Assad, the biggest losers here are Iran and Russia.  Iran spent decades carving out a “Shia Crescent” from Iran’s border through Syria and into Southern Lebanon, giving them direct access to the Mediterranean.  Now, with Israel effectively destroying Hezbollah in Lebanon and Assad’s defeat, Iran has now lost this strategic pathway.

Moreover, we would note there have been numerous reports Israel has taken advantage of the situation and has spent the last 24 hours destroying every major military airfield, military radar facilities, and anti-aircraft capability in Syria, depriving Iran of their first line of defense against Israel.  Now, if Iran were again attacking Israel, forcing Israel to retaliate or, more significantly, if Israel wants to go after Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities or oil production facilities, Israel now has a clear path of attack, which they have never had before.

For Russia, Assad’s defeat is a major strategic loss:  Syrian rebels have demanded Russia withdraw from their prized naval base in Tartus (which, as of this writing, it appears they are doing) as well as evacuate all ground forces inside Syria who have been supporting Assad.  The loss of the Tartus port is stunning for Russia, as the Russian Navy only has two warm-water naval ports, one in Crimea and the facilities in Tartus. 

Second, the true intentions of the Syrian rebels are confusing and to many experts, worrisome. Rebel forces are led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a former member of Al Qaeda who was captured by USS forces in Iraq and who spent five years in a US prison in Iraq.  After being released, he went to Syria to fight in the Syrian Civil War, establishing Al Queda’s Syrian branch.  He and his forces, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, eventually broke with Al Qaeda and professes to be more moderate now.  Joining al-Jolani are Kurdish forces (whom US Special Forces have been assisting on the ground for a number of years).  But has al-Jolani and his group truly moderated themselves?  Or are we about to see Syria become the new Afghanistan, led by a radical Islamist organization while being riven by internal fighting among various other factions?  

While all this is going on, several other nations were and continue to be dealing with internal crisis’, most notably South Korea and Romania.  In South Korea, President Yoon Suk Yeol created a political crisis last week by briefly declaring martial law.  He was forced to retract it soon after, but politicians and citizens are demanding he resign and face criminal charges.  We expect Yoon to step down soon but there remain many questions as to what led to him declaring martial law and what happens next to this critical Asian democracy.

Meanwhile, in Romania, the nation’s top court annulled a recent first-round presidential vote which was won by a far-right candidate, Calin Georgescu, who is seen as aligned with Moscow.  The significance of this for markets is Romania is both a member of the EU and NATO and is now facing potential civil strife until a new election can be held.  The Romanian Intelligence Service and Interior Ministry released files last week showing significant “foreign interference” – e.g., Russian – in the election which led to the Constitutional Court annulling the election.  Among the findings was declassified evidence that, among other things,  Tiktok – which Georgescu used extensively to campaign – had given his campaign massive preferential treatment over the other candidates.  The second-round vote was scheduled for today – Sunday – but the court order effectively canceled it.

We would also note Georgia is undergoing similar troubles as evidence emerged of significant Russian interference in their October 26th election which has led the newly elected Prime Minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, to announce he was discontinuing talks with the EU about Georgia joining – despite the Georgian Constitution having enshrined in it the goal of joining the EU.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, it is going to be a big week for central banks.  The European Central Bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Central Bank of Brazil, the Reserve Bank of Canada, and the Swiss Central Bank all meet this week to set interest rates – a week before the U.S. Federal Reserve meets on interest rates.  Markets will be closely attuned to where rates are set and any indication of how the Fed may act in concert – or not.

In the U.S. this coming week, the CPI print comes out on Wednesday and the PPI is out on Thursday.   In Asia, the Bank of Japan’s Tankan Survey is out Friday – which is closely watched by the Bank of Japan – and in China, inflation figures are out on Monday and trade data is out on Tuesday. 

Moving to Europe, the UK GDP and consumer confidence reports are out on Friday. 

Below are all the other major events and reports we are watching closely in the coming week:

Sunday, December 8, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in Uzbekistan, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania was scheduled to hold a presidential election run-off.  However, late last week the Romanian Supreme Court ruled the election was invalid due to foreign interference and has ordered new elections.

·       Notre-Dame Cathedral official reopens to the public after a catastrophic fire five years ago.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 9, 2024

Global

·       The BRICS holds the Seminars on Institutional Development Issues in Moscow.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The OECD releases its Latin America Outlook.

·       The Wall Street Journal holds its annual CEO Summit in Washington and continues through December 10.  A number of Fortune 100 CEOs along with members of Congress and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (November)

·       USA Wholesale Inventories (October)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       International Atomic Energy Agency officials and international experts arrive in Japan for a review of the safety and regulatory aspects of the discharge of ALPS-treated water from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant into the sea

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Current Account (October)/ Bank Lending (November)/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3

·       Australia Building Permits (October)/ Private House Approvals (October)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (September)

·       China Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (November)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to announce a new Prime Minister following the French Parliament’s no confidence vote last week which forced Prime Minister Michel Barnier to step down.

·       Large protests by European farmers are expected in Brussels following the EU reaching a deal with Mercosur last week.   Meanwhile, in France, French train, dock, and public sector workers will hold a series of strikes.

·       The Netherlands will impose border controls for six months to limit migration.

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. Ministers will review current macroeconomic development and exchange views with the IMF on euro area policies.  Ministers will also discuss the overall budgetary situation and prospects in the euro area and review the economic and fiscal situation of the euro area member states.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council will meet through December 10.  The Council will aim to reach a political agreement on two Commission proposals on fishing opportunities. These are the proposal covering fishing opportunities in the Atlantic and the North Sea for 2025 and, in the case of some stocks, also for 2026, and the proposal on fishing opportunities for 2025 in the Mediterranean and the Black Seas.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Dave Ramsden will give a speech at OMFIF in London on financial stability and the Bank of England’s toolkit.

·       Ireland Construction PMI (November)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (October)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to testify at his corruption trial.  He was scheduled to testify last week but it was delayed until this week. 

·       Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi visits Norway.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (November)

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 23rd International Economic Forum on Africa 2024 will take place in Paris.

·       Tanzania celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Balance of Trade (July)/ (August)/ (September)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (November)

Tuesday, December 10, 2024

Global

·       UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Later they will discuss the situation in Gaza.

·       The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) monthly report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (November)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (November)

·       USA Nonfarm Productivity Q3/ Unit Labour Costs Q3/ Redbook (December/07)/ WASDE Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/06)

·       El Salvador PPI (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan's Nihon Hidankyo, an organization that represents survivors of the atomic bombings in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, receives the Nobel Peace Prize as official award ceremonies get underway in Oslo and Stockholm. The literature prize will be awarded to "The Vegetarian" author Han Kang from South Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision/Australia NAB Business Confidence (November)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (October)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (October)

·       Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (November)/ Machine Tool Orders (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council will meet.  Ministers will be informed of the progress of work within the Council on proposals to reform the EU’s customs legislation. The presidency will provide the information based on a presidency progress report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (November)/ Manufacturing Production (October)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (November)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (October)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ Participation Rate (October)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (November)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (October)

·       Italy Industrial Production (October)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (October)

·       Greece Industrial Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (November)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (October)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (November)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2024 UNESCO Forum on Higher Education in Africa will take place in Nairobi.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (October)/ Mining Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (November)

Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will travel to South Africa to meet with President Cyril Ramaphosa.  They will discuss global and regional issues, especially South Africa’s G20 Presidency (which they hold in 2025).  On Thursday, Guterres will head to Lesotho. He will be meeting with His Majesty King Letsie III, as well as the Prime Minister and other officials. While there, he is scheduled to address the Parliament as Lesotho celebrates the bicentenary of the Basotho nation.

·       IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva will take part in a fireside chat at the Reuters NEXT conference in New York.

·       The OPEC monthly report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will testify before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

·       Today is the deadline for U.S. governors to certify their states’ presidential election results and prepare seven Certificates of Ascertainment, one of which must be sent to the archivist and six of which will be used by electors for electoral votes.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/06)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ CPI (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December/06)/ Monthly Budget Statement (November)

·       Brazil Car Production (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)/ Business Confidence (December)/ Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Bank of Canada meets to discuss and decide Interest Rates.  A press conference follows.

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (November)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Beijing, the Chinese Central Economic Work Conference meets. The two-day meeting, held behind closed doors and highly anticipated by markets, is expected to shape the country's growth goals and stimulus plans for 2025.

·       The Asian Development Bank (ADB) releases its latest regional economic outlook after its September report projected "developing Asia" -- comprising 46 ADB members, including China and India -- would post economic growth of 5.0% this year and 4.9% in 2025.

·       Japan hosts SEMICON Japan in Tokyo.  More than 1000 companies and organizations will be showing their wares at 3-day conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q3

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (December)/ BSI Large Manufacturing Q4/ PPI (November)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Australia RBA Chart Pack

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (October)

·       India M3 Money Supply (November/29)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal hold opening remarks at the 7th German-Ukrainian Economic Forum in Berlin.

·       Switzerland’s parliament will elect a new president.

·       French railway workers are planning to go on strike over efforts to privatize the railroad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania Inflation Rate (November)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (October)/ Auto Production (November)/ Auto Sales (November)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (October)

·       Russia Inflation Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Republic Day in Burkina Faso, a national holiday.

·       Madagascar holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (October)

Thursday, December 12, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Yemen.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (November)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/07)/ PPI (November)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (December/06)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/11)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/11)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (October)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (November)/ Industrial Production (October)

·       Canada Building Permits (October)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in Thailand, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (November)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (December/07)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/07)

·       Australia Employment Change (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production Q3

·       Taiwan Interest Rate Decision

·       India Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) will meet. Ministers will discuss he adoption of the Council decision setting the date for the lifting of checks on persons at the internal land border with and between Bulgaria and Romania on the agenda of the meeting of ministers. Both countries already fully apply Schengen rules from 31 March 2024. Internal air and maritime border controls with Bulgaria and Romania have also been lifted from that date.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Governing Council meets to discuss and decide interest rates.  A press conference will follow.

·       Netherlands Balance of Trade (October)

·       Turkey Current Account (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/06)

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (November)/ GDP (October) / Goods Trade Balance (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Construction Output (October)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (November)

·       Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (November)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (November)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Germany Current Account (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will host his Angolan counterpart João Lourenço on a state visit to solidify relations between the two countries who share deep historical ties.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q4/ PPI (November)/ Building Permits (October)/ SACCI Business Confidence (October)/ SACCI Business Confidence (November)

·       Angola Inflation Rate (November)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (November)

Friday, December 13, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (October)

·       Canada Capacity Utilization Q3/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (October)/ Manufacturing Sales (October)/ Wholesale Sales (October)

·       USA Import Prices (November)/ Export Prices (November)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/13)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (November)

·       Peru Unemployment Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export Prices (November)/ Import Prices (November)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (November)/ Visitor Arrivals (October)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (December)

·       Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q4/ Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q4/ Tankan Small Manufacturers Index Q4/ Capacity Utilization (October)/ Industrial Production (October)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q3

·       India Bank Loan Growth (November/29)/ Deposit Growth (November/29)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/06)

·       China New Yuan Loans (November)/ M2 Money Supply (November)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (November)/ Total Social Financing (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will meet with Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Rome.   Abbas will also meet with Pope Francis.

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) will meet.  Ministers will discuss a general approach (member states position) on a proposed directive which lays down minimum rules to prevent migrant smuggling. The law would replace the current EU legal framework which dates back to 2002. The objective of the proposal is to bring member states criminal law on issues such as the definition and sanctioning of migrant smuggling closer together. Ministers are aiming to settle on a member state position on a proposal to update the 2011 directive to strengthen criminal law on child sexual abuse and sexual exploitation. The goal of the update, proposed in February 2024 by the European Commission, is to expand the definitions of the offences of sexual abuse and sexual exploitation of children and to ensure more effective investigation and prosecution of these crimes. Finally, they will discuss a partial general approach on key elements of a proposal for a directive to harmonize certain aspects of insolvency law. The proposal is one of the initiatives of the 2020 Capital Markets Union action plan. It aims at encouraging cross-border investment within the single market through targeted harmonization of insolvency proceedings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain GfK Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Romania Industrial Production (October)/ Current Account (October)

·       Hungary Construction Output (October)/ Industrial Production (October)

·       France Inflation Rate (November)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (November)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Current Account (October)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (October)

·       Greece Construction Output Q3

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (October)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran is set to impose harsher dress codes that would ban women from wearing tight clothing and outfits that expose the body below the neck or above the ankles and forearms. The hardline parliament approved the new edict despite opposition from reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, and two years after earlier dress codes sparked protests. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (October)/ Total Credit (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, December 14, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The South Korean opposition in the parliament are planning to attempt to move an impeachment vote against President Yook Suk Yeol unless he steps down.  This comes after he declared martial law last week.   However, South Korean ruling party leaders have announced Yoon will be stepping down soon in an “orderly, early” way.

·       Tokyo-based startup Space One is set to launch its Kairos rocket from western Japan, less than a year after its first attempt ended in failure. A successful launch this time would make it the first private venture in Japan to put a satellite into orbit. The company's backers include Canon Electronics and rocket-engine maker IHI.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FDI (YTD) (November)/ Vehicle Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Georgia holds presidential elections which are sure to be highly contentious.  Georgia has been rocked by protests after the Georgian Prime Minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, announced the government will suspect talks on EU accession despite the goal of joining is written into the country’s constitution.   The President of Georgia, Salome Zourabichivili, has said the October 26th parliamentary elections were fraudulent with heavy interference from Russia – and therefore, illegitimate.  Kobakhidze, by saying the Parliament is illegitimate and as the parliament elects the president, has said she will not recognize the outcome and stand-down.   

·       Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will meet with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati in Rome to discuss the situation in southern Lebanon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 15, 2024

Global

·       The UN Internet Governance Forum begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and goes through December 19.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 3rd China Indian Ocean Region Forum on Blue Economy Development Cooperation meets in Kunming, China.  clean energy, climate change response, disaster reduction on the agenda among other topics,

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)/ Tertiary Industry Index (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.K. officially joins the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) as the 12th member of the Asia-Pacific trade bloc. The general agreement removes trade tariffs between member countries and sets rules on matters such as cross-border investment, e-commerce, intellectual property and labor. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (November)/ M1 Money Supply (November)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (November)/ Wholesale Prices (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.