The Global Week Ahead

Jan 19

Donald Trump Returns to Power, The World Economic Forum Convenes in Davos, Rubio Calls A Meeting of the Quad, and Japan’s Prime Minister Gives His First Major Policy Speech

January 19 - 26, 2025

Monday will be a historic day in the United States as Donald Trump is sworn in as the 47th President of the United States for the second time. The world seems to be holding its collective breath, waiting to see what President Trump will do right out of the box after being sworn in. At this point in time, we know he will sign and issue more than 100 Executive Orders that will cover issues ranging from moving on his promised wide-ranging tariff regime, declaring a state of emergency on the US-Mexican border, loosening oil and gas oil permitting immediately, giving a 90-day extension to TikTok from being forced to shut down, to moving on his vow to begin rounding up illegal aliens and deporting them.

The incoming Trump Administration is not wasting any time on the national security and geopolitical front, with incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio (who is expected to be confirmed by the Senate and sworn into office on Monday) convening a meeting Tuesday of the Quad – the foreign ministers of Japan, Australia, India, and the US – in Washington to talk about next steps for the mutual security group. This is seen as a strongly positive signal by the incoming Trump Administration that they intend to maintain the Biden security policies in the Indo-Pacific and ramp it up.

We also note that Trump spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday. The call reportedly covered the future of TikTok, trade, and Fentanyl trafficking. We also hear Trump telling aides that he wants to visit China for meetings with Xi this year.

Also happening this week is the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The mega-event runs for four days (January 20 – 24), and this year, a large number of foreign leaders will be speaking (and President Trump will address the group virtually). You can see the full agenda and list of speakers HERE.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the big reports markets are watching are going to be in Asia. The Bank of Japan meets on interest rates on Friday, while China will be setting its Loan Prime Rate, although the market consensus at this point is that it will remain unchanged.

In Europe, the Eurogroup (all EU finance ministers plus European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde) will meet to discuss global and EU economic conditions. Also, in the EU this week, Germany and France released manufacturing reports, while the UK labor market report is out on Tuesday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, January 19, 2025

Global

· Today is the Orthodox Christian Feast of the Epiphany.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President-elect Trump will hold a rally in Washington, D.C, in advance of his inauguration (tomorrow). He will also participate in a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 20, 2025

Global

· The World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland and runs through January 24. More than 2,500 people are expected to attend. You can see the full agenda HERE.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East (Gaza). UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President-elect Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States. Once he takes the oath, Trump is expected to sign and issue more than 100 Executive Orders – including one declaring a state of emergency on the Mexican border.

· Argentina’s President Javier Milei will be in Washington, D.C., to attend the Trump Inauguration.

· It is Martin Luther King Day, a federal holiday. Financial markets are closed in the US.

· Ecuador presidential candidates will debate ahead of the upcoming election on February 9.

· In Panama City, Panama, the trial begins for Panama ex-presidents Ricardo Martinelli and Juan Carlos Varela, accused of money laundering with Brazilian group Odebrecht.

· In Tapachula, Mexico, a migrant caravan is expected to depart southern Mexico ahead of Donald Trump taking office as US president.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey

· Argentina Balance of Trade (December)/ Leading Indicator (December)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Hong Kong, Chinese property developer Country Garden faces a liquidation hearing days after it reported delayed financial results for 2023 that showed a $24 billion loss.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Machinery Orders (November)/ Capacity Utilization (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Tertiary Industry Index (November)

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (January)/ FDI (YTD) (December)

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. The President of the Eurogroup will invite ministers to engage in a strategic political discussion on the euro area's key policy priorities and the Eurogroup's role in addressing them. This will include discussions about innovations in wholesale payments and the digital Euro.

· Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov chairs government meeting in Moscow on Russians living abroad. The Putin government has been working to find new ways to exert greater control of Russians abroad.

· German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock hosts press conference with Lithuania counterpart Kestutis Budrys to discuss mutual and regional security concerns.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany PPI (December)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (December)

· Greece Current Account (November)

· Italy Construction Output (November)

· Euro Area Construction Output (November)

· Russia Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account Q4/ PPI (December)

· Slovakia Current Account (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

· Spain Consumer Confidence (December)

· Turkey Central Government Debt (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Unemployment Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Tuesday, January 21, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Countering terrorism in Africa.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Foreign ministers from the Quad Nations – Australia, India, Japan, and the US – will meet in Washington to discuss regional security issues and will be chaired by incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The meeting shows an early emphasis on strengthening regional partnerships that outgoing President Joe Biden championed to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific, despite Biden and Trump’s vastly different world views.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Retail Sales (November)

· Canada Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI Median (December)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (December)

· USA Redbook (January/18)

· Colombia Balance of Trade (November)/ Imports (November)/ ISE Economic Activity (November)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea's Constitutional Court holds hearings on Tuesday and Thursday in the impeachment trial of embattled President Yoon Suk Yeol. Last week, Yoon became the first sitting president in South Korean history to be arrested, but he is still fighting all charges and refusing to attend court hearings.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kazakhstan PPI (December)

· New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (December)/ Services NZ PSI (December)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (December)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (January/21)

· Taiwan Export Orders (December)

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council (EU Finance Ministers and ECB Board members) meets in Brussels. They will discuss the situation in Ukraine, the EU economic governance framework and the 2025 Alert Mechanism Report and the draft Council recommendation on the economic policy of the euro area.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Education ministers through January 22.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen addresses the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

· Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubayev in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Union New Car Registrations (December)

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (November)/ Employment Change (November)/ Claimant Count Change (December)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (December)

· Slovenia PPI (December)

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January)

· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January)/ ZEW Current Conditions (January)

· Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (December)

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (December)

· Israel Inflation Expectations (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (November)/ Mining Production (November)

· Angola Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, January 22, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on Haiti followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/17)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (January/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/17)/ CB Leading Index (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/17)

· Canada PPI (December)/ Raw Materials Prices (December)

· Argentina Retail Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (January)

· New Zealand Inflation Rate Q4

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (December)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (December)

· India M3 Money Supply (January/10)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with French President Emmanual Macron in Paris for bilateral talks. The meeting will also mark the 1963 Elysee Treaty of Friendship between the two countries.

· Ireland’s parliament will meet to elect a new three-way coalition government.

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov chairs the council dedicated to the 'protection of rights of citizens living abroad.”

· Germany CDU Leader Friedrich Merz on Germany's gives a keynote speech in Berlin on foreign and European policy priorities.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in the Stakeholder Dialogue 'Beyond Crisis: Unlocking Europe's Potential' during World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

· Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (December)

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (December)/ Employment Growth (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ PPI (December)

· Ireland Residential Property Prices (November)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

· Slovenia Unemployment Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (November)

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (December)/ Total Credit Growth (December)

· Jordan Industrial Production (November)

· Oman Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (December)/ Retail Sales (November)

Thursday, January 23, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organizations (League of Arab States). In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In Canada, today is the deadline for the Liberal Party to announce its candidacy in the leadership vote on March 9, following current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (January)/

· Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (January/18)/ EIA Natural Gas/ Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stocks Change (January/17)/ EIA Distillate Fuel Production & Stocks Change (January/17)/ EIA Gasoline Production/ Heating Oil Stocks/ Refinery Crude Runs Change (January/17)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/22)

· Argentina Economic Activity (November)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India holds local elections in a number of cities.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (November)

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January/18)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/18)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (December)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (December)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England External member of the Monetary Policy Committee Carolyn Wilkins gives a speech at Fitch Ratings entitled “Geopolitics and financial stability: a plan beats no plan” in London.

· Netherlands Consumer Confidence (January)

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (January)/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (January)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/17)

· Hungary Gross Wage (November)

· France Business Confidence (January)/ Business Climate Indicator (January)

· Poland Retail Sales (December)

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

· Great Britain CBI Business Optimism Index Q1/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (January)

· Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (November)/ Building Permits (November)

Friday, January 24, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In Washington, D.C., the Smithsonian’s National Zoo puts the giant pandas Bao Li and Qing Bao on public display at their renovated habitat on Asia Trail.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (January)

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (January)/ New Housing Price Index (December)/ Manufacturing Sales (December)

· Chile PPI (December)

· Mexico Economic Activity (November)

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Existing Home Sales (December)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Final (January)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (January)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Final (January)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (January)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/24)

· Paraguay PPI (December)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto visits India as it celebrates Republic Day, and the two countries mark 75 years of diplomatic relations. The Indonesian leader has embarked on a whirlwind of overseas tours since taking office in October.

· Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivers his first policy address at the start of a new parliamentary session. Ishiba is expected to announce Japan's biggest-ever budget bill, with debate expected over possible changes to income tax rates.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia S&P Global Australia PMI Flash (January)

· Japan Inflation Rate (December)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and Quarterly Outlook Report

· Singapore URA Property Index Q4/ Industrial Production (December)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (December)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Index (November)

· Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q4

· India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/17)

· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Unification Day in Romania, celebrating when, in 1859, the two Romanian principalities of “Moldavia” and “Wallachia” came together to form the “Union of Romanian Principalities.”

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a panel discussion "The effects of central bank digital currencies" at the 13th Institute for Law and Finance Conference on the Future of the Financial Sector "Bank Disintermediation – Causes and Consequences" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (December)

· Spain PPI (December)

· France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (January)/ CBI Distributive Trades (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Composite Economic Index (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)

Saturday, January 25, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Greece holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 26, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday celebrating the country’s constitution coming into force in 1950. There will be a large military parade through New Delhi.

· Today is Australia Day, a national holiday commemorating the landing of The First Fleet in 1788 led by Captain Arthur Phillip, who later became the British colony’s first governor.

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