The Global Week Ahead

The US Congress Certifies the 2024 Election, Venezuela’s Opposition Leader Meets with Hemispheric Leaders,  and Canadian PM Trudeau Resigns

January 5 - 12, 2025

We regret the late arrival of this week's Reg Week Ahead.   Technical issues prevented us from publishing on our normal schedule.  We have updated it to incorporate Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement today.

We hope you all had a wonderful New Year holiday.  The world returns to work this week following the holidays, and a lot is happening.  First, the US Congress convened in a joint session on Monday to certify the election of President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance.  The event was relatively quick – about an hour and a half – and much different than four years ago when riots broke out around and inside the Capitol.  

The new Congress was sworn into office last Friday and is busy getting to work.  We would note that Congress's schedule will be quite different this year as the US Senate has adopted a calendar for working five days a week and going for ten straight weeks without a break.  That is quite a change of pace for the Senate, which has worked three days a week for as long as we can remember, allowing members to return home Friday through Monday to meet with constituents.  The market should expect a lot of action in Congress this year at an unrelenting pace. 

Also this week, Venezuela’s exiled opposition leader, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, will continue a series of meetings throughout the Hemisphere with leaders to bolster support for his victory last July in the presidential elections.  Gonzalez will meet President Biden in Washington and then go to Panama, the Dominican Republic.  He recently met with Argentine President Javier Milei.   Meanwhile, Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, who by most independent accounts clearly stole the election in July, will be sworn in for a third term in office this coming Friday. 

Finally, we would note that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned from office early Monday morning.  Having served for nine years as Prime Minister, he faced low approval numbers and internal party dissent that led to the resignation of his Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, Chrystia Freeland.  Freeland is now considered a leading contender to be elected the new leader of the Liberal Party before elections in late October.

Looking at the global radar screen, this week's economic reporting schedule is relatively light.  In the US, markets will be looking at the US jobs report that will be coming out on Friday.  Also out in the US, this week will be the ISM services index on Tuesday and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report on Friday. And last but certainly not least, the Fed releases meeting minutes.

In Asia, China will release inflation data, official PMI prints, and the Caixin services PMI.  In Japan, wage data is out this week, and Bank of Japan regional branch managers are meeting to discuss wage growth. 

Moving to Europe, CPI reports will be released for the Eurozone, France, Germany, and Italy.  The European Central Bank’s consumer expectations survey will also be released on Tuesday.

Below is our weekly report of everything we are watching worldwide this coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

Sunday, January 5, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Monday, January 6, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress holds a joint session to certify the 2024 Presidential elections.

·       Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to resign.

·       President Joe Biden is expected to host a meeting with Venezuelan opposition leader Emundo Gonzalez Urratia at the White House.

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul in Seoul, South Korea.  Blinken will also travel to Tokyo, Paris, and Rome.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Financial Stability” at the Seventh Conference on Law and Macroeconomics being held in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Factory Orders (November)/ Total Vehicle Sales (December)

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (December)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (December)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Business Confidence (December)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (November)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Hesse CPI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (December)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (December)/ Business Confidence (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ M2 Money Supply (November)

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (December)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (December)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (December)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (December)

Tuesday, January 7, 2025

Global

·      Eastern Orthodox Christians celebrate Christmas today. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Greater Raleigh Chamber Economic Forecast: Launch 2025.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (December)/ PPI (November)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Canada Fed Barkin Speech/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Ivey PMI s.a (December)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Redbook (January/04)/ ISM Services PMI/ Business Activity/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices (December)/ JOLTs Job Openings (November)/ JOLTs Job Quits (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/03)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (December)

·       Colombia PPI (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan’s military holds combat readiness training sessions.

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will host Singapore Prime Minister Lawerence Wong for bilateral talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Building Permits (November)/ Private House Approvals (November)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (December)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       India Fiscal Year GDP Growth Prel 2025-24

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (January/07)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (December)/ Halifax House Price Index (December)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (December)

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (December)

·       Hungary PPI (November)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (December)

·       France Inflation Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ CPI Flash (December)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (December)/ Bavaria CPI (December)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Spain Business Confidence (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       For the first time in 13 years, Qatar Airways will resume flights to Damascus and Aleppo, Syria.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (December)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (December)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits Congo.

·       Ghana’s President-elect John Mahama is sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Current Account Q3

Wednesday, January 8, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets on the situation in Syria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Paris.

·       Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia visits the Dominican Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Lectures of the Governors Event in Paris, France.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (December)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (November)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/03)/ ADP Employment Change (December)/ Fed Waller Speech/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/04)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/03)/ FOMC Minutes/ Consumer Credit Change (November)/ Used Car Prices (December)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (December)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (November)

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (November)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Japan Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Services PMI (December)

·       India M3 Money Supply (December/27)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Conservative top candidate for chancellor Friedrich Merz holds a speech on the final day of the CSU annual meeting in Seeon, Germany.

·       Electronic Travel Authorization (ETA) scheme starts in UK for non-Europeans.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Household Consumption (November)

·       Germany Factory Orders (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (November)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ Current Account (November)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Final (December)/ Economic Sentiment (December)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)/ Industrial Sentiment (December)/ PPI (November)/ Selling Price Expectations (December)/ Services Sentiment (December)

·       Great Britain BBA Mortgage Rate (December)

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Serbia PPI (December)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon’s Parliament will hold a session to try and elect a new president.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ ABSA Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Tanzania Interest Rate Decision/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (November)

Thursday, January 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today the US federal government is closed in memoriam for former President Jimmy Carter.  A funeral service will be held today at the National Cathedral in Washington, D.C.

·       Following former President Jimmy Carter’s funeral service, President Joe Biden will fly to Rome for meetings with Pope Francis as well as with Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

·       Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia visits Panama.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will give a speech entitled “Reflections on 2024: Monetary Policy, Economic Performance, and Lessons for Banking Regulation” at te California Bankers Association 2025 Bank Presidents Seminar.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks on "Right Now, It's Putting One Foot in Front of the Other" before the National Association of Corporate Directors New Jersey Chapter Economic Forecast 2025.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Virginia Bankers Association/Virginia Chamber of Commerce Financial Forecast.

·       Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook before the Economic Club of Kansas City.

·       Brazil Retail Sales (November)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (December)/ Auto Exports & Production (December)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (December)/Wholesale Inventories (November)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/09/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/08)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (November)/ Overtime Pay (November)/ Foreign Bond Investment (December/28)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/28)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/04)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (December)/ Car Sales (December)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Elon Musk will hold a conversation with Germany’s far-right AfD's leader Alice Weidel on X.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the University of Edinburgh.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Brandenburg CPI (December)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (December)/ Saxony CPI (December)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (November)/ PPI (November)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Euro Area Retail Sales (November)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (November)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (November)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/03)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani visits Iran for bilateral talks.

·       Foreign Ministers from US, France, Britain, Germany and Italy meet on Syria in Rome.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits Chad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (November)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (December)

Friday, January 10, 2025

Global

·       The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) update on global temperatures.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro will be sworn into office for a third term. Maduro is widely seen as having stolen the election and has imprisoned thousands of opposition figures since the election in July.

·       President-elect Donald Trump is scheduled to be sentenced over cover-up of hush-money paid to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.

·       The US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in the challenge to the federal ban on TikTok.

·       First launch of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket.

·       The Detroit Auto Show begins and runs through January 20.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (December)/ Car Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (December)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (November)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ Participation Rate (December)/ Building Permits (November)

·       USA Non-Farm/ Government/ Manufacturing Payrolls (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Participation Rate (December)/ Average Hourly Earnings/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (January) / Michigan Current Conditions (January) / Michigan Consumer & Inflation Expectations (January) / WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/10)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (November)/ Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Economic Index (November)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (October)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (November)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ Consumer Confidence (December)

·       India Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/03)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (December)

·       China New Yuan Loans (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (December)/ Total Social Financing (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       First flight by Pakistan national carrier departs for EU after four-year ban.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Manufacturing Production (November)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Final Q3/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)

·       France Industrial Production (November)/ Household Consumption (November)

·       Spain Industrial Production (November)

·       Italy Retail Sales (November)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (November)

·       Greece Industrial Production (November)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (December)

·       Germany Current Account (November)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (November)

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ethiopia Stock Exchange launches operations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (December)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (December)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (December)

Saturday, January 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Kosrae Constitution Day, commemorating when the island nation instituted its constitution.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The German Social Democratic Party (SPD) congress to officially sign off on their candidate for chancellor ahead of the election.

·       The German  Far-right AfD party holds their party congress on their election program.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Croatia holds its presidential runoff election. Incumbent President Zoran Milanović is due to face rival Dragan Primorac.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Comoros holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

The Geopolitical Outlook and Latin America 2025

The FLAR Conference 2024 Presentation

Cartegna, Colombia

It was a great pleasure to be asked to present at the FLAR Conference in Cartagena, Colombia recently. My presentation topic was broader geopolitical and geoeconomic trends that are likely to impact Latin America and which Latin American central banks need to consider in 2025. You can watch my presentation here (it begins at the 56-minute mark).

I recommend you continue to watch the panel presentation that followed for some great insights from the superb group I was honored to join to discuss and debate with on these timely topics.