Global Week Ahead

The AI Action Summit Convenes in Paris, Trump Meets with Indian Prime Minister Modi as Secretary of State Rubio Meets with EU Foreign Ministers, and Powell Goes to Capitol Hill 

February 9 - 16, 2025

Europe serves as the host of two important geopolitical events this week.  First, the growing opportunity and risk of Artificial Intelligence (AI) dominate the attention of world leaders and prominent business CEOs this week as the AI Action Summit kicks off in Paris.  Co-hosted by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron, the event will include attendees from 80 countries, including U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.  There are expected to be more than 100 side events, and in total, more than 10,000 people will attend.   The event is expected to focus on both the risks and opportunities AI offers.

Second, European foreign ministers will gather and meet with newly sworn-in U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday for the first time.  Rubio will also meet with Ukrainian Foreign minster Andrii Sybiha to discuss the situation in Ukraine and likely President Trump’s plans to seek a peace treaty with Russia.  Rubio will then travel on to the Munich Security Conference in Germany following by visits to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to discuss the situation in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.

While all this is going on, in the U.S., President Trump will meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington to discuss trade issues and how to further expand the mutual defense and security relationship between India and the U.S. including the opportunity for India to increase purchases of leading U.S. military technology.  The relationship between Trump and Modi was strong during his first term and has remained so ever since.  What market are likely to be focused on most of all is any discussion between the two leaders over attracting manufacturing in China to India and the U.S.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this coming week, markets will be focused on Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s semiannual economic reports to Congress.  Powell starts Tuesday when he testifies before the Senate Banking Committee and then on Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee.

Powell’s testimony comes as US CPI, retail sales, and industrial production reports are released this week. 

Turning to Asia, China’s CPI and PPI are out this week, and Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey and PPI are released this week.   In Europe, the UK’s 4th quarter GDP is out as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde meets with the European Parliament to discuss the economy and ECB policy.

Below is what else we are watching closely in the coming week:

Sunday, February 9, 2025

Global

·         Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador holds presidential elections and parliamentary elections.  137 seats in the National Assembly are up for a vote. And incumbent President Daniel Noboa is likely to win re-election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese asset freeze sanctions on 18 Chinese companies for helping Russia evade sanctions will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will transition from the Soviet-era BRELL grid to the Continental Europe Synchronous Area.

·       Kosovo holds parliamentary elections for 120 seats.

·       Lichtenstein holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Prince Karim Al-Hussaini, the Aga Khan IV and spiritual leader of Ismaili Muslims will be buried in Aswan, Egypt.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 10, 2025

Global

·       The AI Action Summit convenes in Paris begins in Paris.  It will be co-chaired by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron.  Multiple leaders from around the world are expected to attend.

·       United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres travels to Paris to attend the AI Action Summit.  He is expected to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and other leaders on the sidelines of the Summit to discuss other issues including Ukraine, Syria, and Gaza.

·       The United Nations he Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Candidates for the Organization of American States' new secretary general will present their candidacies.

·       The Delphi Forum will begin in Washington, D.C.  The Greek-focused forum will include speakers from Congress and business.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Auto Production (January)

·       Brazil Car Production (January)/ New Car Registrations (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Bank of Canada Market Participants Survey

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s new targeted 10 percent tariffs on the US are due to take effect. 

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi travels to Paris to co-chair the AI Action Summit through Tuesday.  He goes on to Washington to meet with President Trump on Wednesday and Thursday.

·       Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown will visit China through February 14.  New Zealand has objected to the meetings over security concerns.

·       US and South Korean military forces will take part in a live-fire training exercise in South Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Current Account (December)/ Bank Lending (January)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (January)

·       Australia Building Permits (December)/ Private House Approvals (December)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (December)/ Construction Output Q4

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q4

·       China New Yuan Loans (January)/ M2 Money Supply (January)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (January)/ Total Social Financing (January)/ Vehicle Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers for Development in Warsaw, Poland.

·       German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will meet European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius in Berlin, Germany.

·       Church of England General Synod meeting begins. On the agenda are safeguarding proposals following the independent review by Keith Makin into the church’s handling of allegations of serious abuse by the late Archbishop John Smyth and other church leaders.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will brief member of the European Parliament on
the state of European and global economic affairs as well as giving an update on the European Central Bank’s activities.  The meeting takes place in Strasbourg, France.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Market Infrastructure  Sasha Mills will deliver remarks at the Chair/CEO/INEDs Roundtable for UK Financial Market Infrastructure firms.

·       Netherlands Manufacturing Production (December)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (December)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Participation Rate (December)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (December)

·       Greece Industrial Production (December)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (January)

·       Germany Bundesbank Balz Speech

·       Hungary Budget Balance (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran’ celebrates Revolution Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (January)

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (December)/ SACCI Business Confidence (January)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (January)

Tuesday, February 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee to present his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

·       Jordan's King Abdullah II will meet with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C.   They will discuss the situation in Gaza as well as Syria. Abdullah is also expected to discuss the pause of US Agency for International Development (AID) aid to Jordan which has been paused.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on Bank Regulation at the 2025 Iowa Bankers Association Bank Management and Policy Conference.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on the economic outlook before the University of Kentucky Gatton School of Business and Economics 2025 Economic Outlook Conference.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote remarks before the Pace University Economics Society in New York.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (January)/ Redbook (February/08)/WASDE Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/07)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (January)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (December)

·       Canada Building Permits (December)

·       El Salvador PPI (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippine midterm election season  for parliamentary and local elections officially begins. 

·       Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) Board of Directors holds its first board meeting in the US.  They will visit the company’s Arizona facility – its first cutting edge facility to build overseas.

·       Japan celebrates National Foundation Day, a national holiday celebrating the founding of the nation in 660BC. Government offices, schools, banks and many companies close for the day

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (February)/ NAB Business Confidence (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Members of the European Parliament and representatives from the European Commission and the Polish Council Presidency will assess the current state of EU-US trade relations, multilateralism, and the EU’s potential responses if the US imposes tariffs on European products.

·       Members of the European Parliament will meet to discuss how to address the US government’s recent decision to restrict the export of AI Chips to certain EU Member States.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a keynote speech at the London campus of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, titled “Are we underestimating changes in financial markets?”

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in the Nuremberg Talks Series' panel discussion organized by Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung in Nürnberg, Germany.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann gives a speech at Leeds Beckett Univeristy on “Economic Prospects.”

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (January)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (January)

·       France Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Turkey Retail Sales (December)/ Auto Production (January)/ Auto Sales (January)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (January)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (December)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (December)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Bruno Lemarquis, the United Nation’s Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). He will brief reporters virtually on the situation in the DRC.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (December)

Wednesday, February 12, 2025

Global

·       The United Nation’s Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the 1591 Committee (dealing with Sudan). Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultation on the Middle East (Syria).

·       OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee to present his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Washington, D.C. for meetings with President Trump through February 13.  The discussions are likely to focus on India’s trade surplice and how to improve Indian investment in the US.  They will also discuss how to continue to attract manufacturing in China to both India and the US.  A big focus will be on the growing defense cooperation between the two countries.

·       Ontario premier Doug Ford, chair of the Council of the Federation, leads a joint mission of Canadian premiers to Washington to meet key members of the Trump administration, Congress and business leaders to lobby for maintaining strong Canada-US relations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on stablecoins at the A Very Stable Conference: Stablecoin Infrastructure for Real World Applications, San Francisco, California.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will give remarks at the Atlanta Chapter of the National Association of Corporate Directors.

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (February/07)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI (January)/ Fed Chair Powell Testimony/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February/07)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Monthly Budget Statement (January)/ Fed Waller Speech

·       Canada BoC Summary of Deliberations

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam holds an Extraordinary Session of the National Assembly in Hanoi through February 17.  The meeting brings together the Standing Boards of the National Assembly with the Government’s party Committees and they will focus on national defense and security, approve four laws and five resolutions designed to revamp institutional frameworks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Home Loans Q4/ Investment Lending for Homes Q4

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (December)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (December)

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (January)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment NOV

·       India Industrial Production (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Manufacturing Production (December)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Defense Minister John Healey convenes the Ukraine Defense Contact Grupo in Ramstein, Germany.

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will join the foreign ministers from France, Germany, Poland, Italy, the United Kingdom and Spain will meet with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha in Paris, France.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a fireside chat at MNI Connect event.

·       Megan Greene, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene speaks on the impact of global developments on the UK at the Institute of Directors in London.

·       The European Central Bank releases its Economic Bulletin on the EU’s Green investment needs in the EU and their funding.

·       Italy Industrial Production (December)

·       Euro Area ECB Elderson Speech

·       Germany Bundesbank Mauderer Speech/ Current Account (December)/ Bundesbank Nagel Speech

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.  Erdogan will also attend the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council meetings (HLSCC) in Indonesia and Pakistan.  Erdogan will also travel to Malaysia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan Industrial Production (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union (AU) Assembly and the AU Executive Council will meet in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Thursday, February 13, 2025

Global

·       The United Nations Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by a consultation on the Middle East (Yemen). 

·       The International Energy Administration releases its February Oil Market Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to the Munich Security Conference in Germany and then will travel on to Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia through February 18.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (December)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (February/08)/ PPI (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/07)/ Total Household Debt Q4/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/13)/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/12)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (January)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (January)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai will travel to China to sign an agreement on a cross-border rail line for transporting coal.

·       The Indonesia Motor Show begins in Jakarta and runs through February 23.  More than 30 auto manufacturers will be in attendance.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (January)/ Business Inflation Expectations Q1

·       Japan PPI (January)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Indonesia Car Sales (January)

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (January)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Chiefs are scheduled to meet in Brussels.

· French President Emmanuel Macron hosts a conference on Syria in Paris to support a fair and inclusive political.

·       Pope Francis hosts a workshop, Tax Justice and Solidarity, with speakers including former South African president Thabo Mbeki and Brazil’s current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded interview at the Frankfurt Digital Finance Conference 2025.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (January)/ GDP (December)/ Business Investment Q4/ Goods Trade Balance (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Construction Orders (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (January)

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (January)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (January)/ Bundesbank Nagel Speech

·       Romania Industrial Production (December)/ Current Account (December)

·       Turkey Current Account (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/07)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (December)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB Economic Bulletin/ Industrial Production (December)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Current Account (December)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (December)/ Mining Production (December)

Friday, February 14, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (December)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (December)/ Wholesale Sales (December)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

·       USA Export & Import Prices (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Capacity Utilization (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)/ Business Inventories (December)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (December)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (February/14)

·       Colombia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (December)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (December)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (December)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export & Import Prices (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (January)/ Food Inflation (January)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (February/08)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/08)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

·       Indonesia Property Price Index Q4

·       Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

·       India WPI Food Index (January)/ WPI Fuel (January)/ WPI Inflation (January)/ WPI Manufacturing (January)/ Bank Loan Growth (January/31)/ Deposit Growth (January/31)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/07)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q4/ GDP (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Munich Security Forum begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Netherlands Balance of Trade (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Household Consumption (December)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (January)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Hungary Construction Output (December)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (January)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Spain Inflation Rate (January)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Employment Change Q4

·       Greece Inflation Rate (January)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Serbia Building Permits (December)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (January)/ M1 Money Supply (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Saturday, February 15, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Abkhazia holds presidential elections following the resignation of Aslan Bzhania following wide-spread national protests.

·       Taiwan holds local by-elections.

·       Togo holds senatorial legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Serbia celebrates Statehood Day, a two-day national holiday marking the day in 1804 when the first Serbian Uprising took place.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union (AU) Summit begins in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 16, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea has a national holiday celebrating the birth of former leader Kim Jon-il who died in 2011.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, his conservative challenger Friedrich Merz plus Alice Weidel of the AfD and Robert Habeck from the Greens take part in a four-way TV debate on German channel RTL ahead of next week’s federal election

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union Heads of State and Government Summit finishes.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.