The Global Week Ahead: November 6-13, 2022
We are down to the last 72 hours before the US mid-term elections on Tuesday. Polls suggest Republicans will win control of the House of Representatives, while which party will win control of the Senate is too close to call (our view is Republicans will win control of the Senate, too – perhaps by a three-seat majority).
Internationally, COP27 begins in Egypt, and leaders from around the world will converge in Sharm El-Sheikh to debate how to further push forward on global climate protocols. But, more controversially, we expect the debate to begin on paying compensation and reparations for climate damage to certain countries. Also, this week, the ASEAN Leaders Summit begins in Cambodia and will serve as a prelude for the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Bali the following week. And the G20 is shaping up to be quite a meeting as Russian President Putin, Chinese President Xi, US President Biden and even Ukraine President Zelensky (virtually) are expected to attend
Markets this week will be at highly focused on consumer price index and producer price index updates from the US, China, Germany, and Japan. They will also be looking at the UK’s GDP figures on Friday to get a clearer picture of how bad the recession might be there.
Here is what we are watching around the world this week:
Sunday, November 6, 2022:
Global
· The United Nation’s 2022 Climate Change (COP27) Conference begins in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. The Conference, which runs through November 18th, will be seeking to build off the Glasgow, Scotland conference held in 2021 and seek to accelerate global climate action on emissions reduction and enhance flows of the appropriate financing to reach those goals. A large number of world leaders are expected to attend. Among the other issues, they will discuss will be the potentially politically controversial issue of compensation and reparations for climate damage.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Business Confidence (October), Tourist Arrivals (October), Consumer Confidence (October)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, November 7, 2022:
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria's chemical weapons). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a Troop Contributing countries meeting on the UN Peacekeeping Mission in the Central African Republic and then on the meeting of Troop Contributing Countries serving in South Sudan.
· The UN is hosting in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, the 7th International Conference on Big Data and Data Science for Official Statistics. An estimated 2,000 data scientists and statisticians from more than 70 counties will compete in the 2022 UN Big Data Hackathon (November 8-11) as part of the Conference.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Ecuador begins taking its national census.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil Central Bank Market Readout
· Mexico Consumer Confidence (October), Auto Production (October), Auto Exports (October)
· Chile Exports/Balance of Trade (October)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar travels to Moscow for bilateral meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and other senior Russian officials. They are expected to discuss bilateral trade issues. In particular, India is concerned about grain and sunflower oil exports from Ukraine and Russia, which have been put at risk by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October), FX Reserves (October)
· Japan Household Spending (September), Average Cash Earnings (October), Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, FX Reserves (October),
· Indonesia GDP (Q3), FX Reserves (October), Consumer Confidence (October)
· Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (October), Ai Group Services Index (October)
· South Korea Current Account (September)
· Hong Kong FX Reserves (October)
· Singapore FX Reserves (October)
· Philippines FX Reserves (October), Unemployment Rate (September), Industrial Production (September)
· Pakistan Balance of Trade (October)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The Eurogroup meets to discuss economic developments and the outlook for the euro area. They will also discuss measures to mitigate the impact of high energy prices as well as the draft EU budgetary plans.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded video message at a joint European Commission/ECB Conference entitled “Towards a legislative framework enabling a digital Europe for citizens and businesses”
· ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in a panel discussion at a joint European Commission/ECB Conference entitled “Towards a legislative framework enabling a digital Europe for citizens and businesses”
· Germany Industrial Production (September), S&P Global Construction PMI (October)
· UK Halifax House Price Index (October), BRC Retail Sales Monitor (October), BBA Mortgage Rate (October)
· France FX Reserves (October), S&P Global Construction PMI (October)
· Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMI (October)
· Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (October)
· Switzerland Unemployment (October), FX Reserves (October)
· Ukraine FX Reserves (October)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (October)
· Israel Manufacturing PMI (September), Composite Economic Index (September)
· Iran Inflation Rate (September)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa FX Reserves (October)
· Mauritius FX Reserves (October)
Tuesday, November 8, 2022:
Global
· A total Lunar Eclipse to occur.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US mid-term elections are held today. All US House of Representatives seats and 33 US Senate seats are up for election, plus numerous governors’ seats and state legislative seats. As of Sunday evening, more than 40 million Americans have already voted, which is a new record for early voting. In the state of Georgia, 2.3 million have already voted (out of a population of 10.8 million), a new state record.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US NFIB Business Optimism Index (October), Redbook (November), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (November)
· Brazil Car Production (October), New Car Registrations (October)
· Argentina Industrial Production (September)
· Chile Inflation Figures (October), Imports (October)
· Colombia Consumer Confidence (October)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The 40th and 41st ASEAN Summit is held in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.
· The 14th installment of the Airshow China takes place in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province, China, through November 13th. The event will include both domestic and foreign manufacturers, including Airbus and GE. China is expected to show off its heavy military transport aircraft, the Y-20, and anti-drone systems.
· The 24th Nikkei Global Management Forum takes place in Tokyo through Wednesday. Leading global CEOs are scheduled to speak.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Inflation Rate (October), PPIs (October),
· Japan Economic Leading Index (September), Reuters Tankan Index (November), Current Account (September), Bank Lending (October)
· South Korea Unemployment Rate (October)
· Taiwan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October), Inflation Rate (October)
· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (November), NAB Consumer Confidence Change (November), Building Permits (September), Private House Approvals (September)
· Indonesia Retail Sales (September)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets to discuss Basel II regulation, taxation of trucks, and the economic and financial impact of the war in Ukraine.
· Germany’s largest union, IG Metal Kueste, expected to continue warning strikes in Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg in advance of negotiations over pay.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Member Luis de Guindos participates in the ECOFNI meetings in Brussels.
· ECB Member Andrea Enria gives a speech at the Bundesbank Symposium “Banking Supervision in Dialogue” in Frankfurt, Germany.
· France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September), Current Account (September), Retail Sales (September)
· Italy Retail Sales (September)
· Eurozone Retail Sales (September)
· Russia Central Bank Monetary Policy Report, Vehicle Sales (October)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Turkey’s Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan is expected to meet with Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson in Ankara, Turkey. They will discuss Sweden’s accession to NATO and Turkey’s accusation that Sweden is harboring Kurdish terrorists.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Budget Balance (October)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Ghana’s Parliament is expected to begin debating a motion to remove Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta. Ghana is facing its worst economic crisis in decades, with inflation near 38 percent and the currency falling 20 percent against the dollar. Half of the government’s revenues now go to paying interest payments the country is seeing a deal with the IMF to help stabilize the economy. Protests have also broken out in the capital, Accra, as citizen demand President Nana Akufo-Addo also step down.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Tanzania Inflation (October)
· Mauritius Inflation (October)
· Seychelles Inflation (October)
Wednesday, November 9, 2022:
Global
· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the UN peacekeeping mission in Libya.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US MBA 30-year Mortgage Rate (November), MBA Mortgage Market Index (November), Wholesale Inventories (September), WASDE Report
· Brazil Retail Sales (September)
· Mexico Inflation Rate (October)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (October)
· Australia Inflation Expectations (November)
· Philippines GDP Growth (Q3)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The European Commission is expected to publish proposals for changing EU fiscal rules to make them more realistic given the high public debt after COVID.
· Brussels International Airport is expected to be hit by a labor strike that may shut the airport.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Non-Monetary Policy Meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.
· ECB Member Frank Elderson participates in an online panel organized by the Euro-Mediterranean Economists Association at the COP17 Conference.
· ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (September)
· UK RICS House Price Balance (October)
· Russia FX Reserves (October), Inflation Rate (October)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Mozambique Inflation Rate (October)
· Ghana Inflation Rate (October)
Thursday, November 10, 2022:
Global
· The UN Security Council will hold a debate on “Threats to international peace and security: Counter-terrorism in Africa”
· The Chair of the UN Security Council will rotate to Ghanaian President Nana Afufo-Addo taking the helm.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US Chamber of Commerce hosts the Transatlantic Business Works Summit in Washington, DC. The Summit brings together a number of EU leaders, including Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte and senior officials from the Biden Administration as well a large number of US and EU-based CEOs.
· The Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City will host their 7th joint energy conference, “Energy and the Economy: the New Energy Landscape,” in Houston, Texas. NASA. And the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) launch the Joint Polar Satellite System-2 for extreme weather monitoring.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Inflation Rate (October), Initial Jobless Claims (November)
· Brazil Inflation Rate (October)
· Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) begins the 38th and 39th Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen will pass the chairmanship to Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. US President Bide, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will attend. Also, both Spain and Ukraine will sign the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) in Southeast Asia, which governs interstate relations in the region.
· Japan and US military forces to start “Keen Sword” exercises in Japan. Australia, Canada, and the UK will also participate in the naval and air force exercises.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will discuss central bank digital currencies at a Queensland University of Technology event in Brisbane, Australia.
· China Vehicle Sales (October), New Yuan Loans (October), Outstanding Loan Growth (October), Total Social Financing (October), M2 Money Supply (October)
· Japan Machine Tool Orders (October)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the BusinessEurope CEOs Dialogue 2022 in Brussels.
· London’s Underground and Overground employees are expected to hold a one-day strike.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Member Andreas Enria participates in a fireside chat organized by De Nederlandsche Bank.
· ECB Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a roundtable discussion at the Bank of Slovenia
· Ukraine Inflation Rate (October)
· Italy Industrial Production (September)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (September)
· Turkey Unemployment Figures (September), FX Reserves (November)
· Egypt Inflation Rate (October)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Mining Production (September), Gold Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September)
· Rwanda Inflation Rate (October)
Friday, November 11, 2022:
Global
· The UN is sponsoring the Global conference on Macroeconomic Statistics for the Future, which will be organized by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and Eurostat.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US President Biden will attend the COP27 Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt.
· The US observes Veterans Day, a federal holiday.
· US Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen will travel to New Delhi, India, to participate in the U.S.-India Economic and Financial Partnership.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (November), Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (November), Michigan Current Conditions (November), Michigan Consumer Expectations (November)
· Mexico Industrial Production (September)
· Brazil Business Confidence (November)
· Chile Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· China holds Singles’ Day, the largest annual shopping festival in the country. However, Zero COVID restrictions are expected to significantly impact the event.
· Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s protest march is scheduled to arrive in Islamabad. However, since Khan was shot earlier this week at a rally, this event is likely to be delayed.
· Australia observes Remembrance Day, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· India FX Reserves (November), Manufacturing Production (September), Industrial Production (September)
· Hong Kong GDP (Q3)
· Indonesia Car Sales (October)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets to reach an agreement on the 2023 EU budget with the EU Parliament.
· Armistice Day in Europe commemorating the end of World War I.
· Poland celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Member Fabio Panetta gives a lunch talk at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies.
· ECB Member Philip Lane participates in a policy panel at the 23rd Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference in Washington, D.C.
· Germany Inflation Rate (October), CPI (October)
· UK GDP (Q3), Goods Trade Balance Figures (September), Balance of Trade (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Industrial Production (September), Construction Output (September), Construction Orders (Q3), Business Investment (Q3), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (October)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Industrial Production (September), Current Account (September), Retail Sales (September)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Saturday, November 12, 2022:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Biden attends the US-ASEAN Summit and the 17th East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Both run through November 13th.
· US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen will attend the G20 Joint Finance and Health Ministers’ Meeting in Bali, Indonesia. She will also accompany President Biden at the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Bali on November 15/16.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Uruguay Industrial Production (September)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits Vietnam and Singapore to discuss trade through November 14th.
· The UK’s Royal Mail staff continue their walkout over pay and terms.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Bahrain Council on Representatives (parliament) election. All 40 members are up for election.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, November 13, 2022:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Biden attends the G20 Summit meeting in Indonesia through November 16th.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The UK observers Remembrance Day with King Charles III laying a wreath at the Cenotaph in London.
· Second round presidential ballot in Slovenia.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.