The Global Week Ahead: November 6-13, 2022
Global diplomatic summitry – all being held in Southeast Asia – will dominate the geopolitical calendar this week. It starts this weekend with the ASEAN Summit in Phenom Penh, Cambodia, and then moves to Bali, Indonesia, for the G20 Leaders’ Summit and then, later in the week, to Bangkok, Thailand, for the APEC Summit.
At the G20, President Biden will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in a closely watched set of sideline meetings aimed at “putting a floor” under US-China relations. Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided not to attend either the ASEAN Summit or the G20 Summit in person but may attend via video link. Later this week, the APEC Summit will be held in Bangkok, Thailand, where regional leaders and a number of world leaders will gather again. President Biden will not participate in APEC and is sending Vice President Kamala Harris in his stead.
On the global economic front, the announcement this past week out of Beijing of a shift in the Zero COVID policy has buoyed global markets. This came just as markets celebrated a weaker US CPI print suggesting peak inflation may have been reached. This coming week, markets will keenly look at two key US economic reports for further hope of brighter economic days ahead: retail sales and housing figures.
Here is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:
Sunday, November 13, 2022
Global
· The COP27 Conference continues until November 18 in Sharm El-Sheik, Egypt.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Biden arrives in Bali, Indonesia, to attend the G20 Summit meeting in Indonesia following his attendance at the ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. The G20 runs through November 16.
· The US Congress returns for the Lame Duck session following last week’s midterm elections. The passage of the defense appropriations bill and raising the debt ceiling are the paramount issues for them to finish before adjourning in mid-December. House and Senate Republicans are scheduled to hold leadership elections this week despite a number of races in both chambers uncalled and rising demand from with the respective caucus’ to put off the elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The 17th Asia-Pacific Conference on German Business will be held (through November 14). German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz is scheduled to give a keynote speech on the 14th before going to Bali for the G20 Heads of States and Government Summit.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The UK observers Remembrance Day with King Charles III laying a wreath at the Cenotaph in London.
· The second-round presidential ballot in Slovenia.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will seek to form a new government following recent elections.
· The Abu Dhabi Finance Week will take place through November 18.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The Nigeria Economic Summit will begin in Abuja.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, November 14, 2022:
Global
· The 17th G20 Heads of State and Government Summit formally begins in Bali, Indonesia, through November 16. President Biden is scheduled to meet on the sidelines with Chinese President Xi Jinping and is expected to talk about a host of issues ranging from trade to Taiwan to human rights to Ukraine. The members of the G20 include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union. Spain is also invited as a permanent guest. Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced he will not attend in person but may dial in via video.
· The UN Security Council meets to discuss peacekeeping operations and Police Commissioners. Then they will discussion the situation in the Central African Republic.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The Helsinki Commission is expected to release a report in Washington, DC detailing Russia’s genocide in Ukraine. The Commission – more formally known as the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe and is composed of members of the US Senate, House of Representatives, and the Executive Branch – will hold a press conference and panel discussion on their findings.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Lael Brainard speaks at the Bloomberg Economic Outlook event in Washington, DC.
· Canada Senior Loan Officer Survey
· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, IBC-BR Economic Activity (September)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· India WPI Food (October), WPI Manufacturing (October), WPI Fuel (October), WPI Inflation (October)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Ministers of Foreign Affairs) meets today to discuss the Ukraine war, the situation in the Great Lakes, and the situation in the Western Balkans.
· The UK’s BBC marks the 100th anniversary of its first radio broadcast.
· King Charles III celebrates his 74th birthday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· EBC Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a panel discussion at the opening conference (12:00 p.m. CET) of The 25th Euro Finance Week Conference in Frankfurt.
· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the closing keynote speech (5:15 p.m. CET) at the 25th Euro Finance Week opening conference in Frankfurt, Germany.
· Eurozone Industrial Production (September)
· Poland Industrial Production ((September), Current Account (September)
· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (October)
· Ukraine Balance of Trade (September)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Turkey Auto Production (October)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The Nigerian Economic Summit starts in Abuja, Nigeria. The Summit will focus on national and regional economic development.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Tuesday, November 15, 2022:
Global
· The International Energy Agency releases the November Oil Market Report
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Former US President Donald Trump is expected to announce his intention to run again for president in 2024.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook speaks at the Diversity and Inclusion in Economics, Finance, and Central Banking Conference hosted by the Bank of Canada (a virtual event).
· US PPIs (October), New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (November), Redbook (November)
· Canada Manufacturing Sales (September), New Motor Vehicles Sales (September), Wholesale Sales (October)
· Argentina Inflation Rate (October)
· Peru GDP (Q3), Unemployment Rate (October)
· Panama Balance of Trade (September)
· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October), Unemployment Rate (October), Peoples’ Bank of China 1-Year MLF announcement
· India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)
· South Korea Export Prices (October), Import Prices (October)
· Japan GDP Figures (Q3), Industrial Production (September), Capacity Utilization (September)
· Australia Reserve Bank Meeting Minutes
· Thailand GDP (Q3)
· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (October), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense Ministers) meets today to discuss the Ukraine war, the situation in the Great Lakes, and the situation in the Western Balkans.
· UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly answers questions at a parliamentary committee on the UK’s future relationship with the EU.
· 19th EU-Kyrgyzstan Cooperation Council meets in Brussels. The Council will review key aspects of bilateral relations, including the follow-up to the initialing of the EU-Kyrgyz Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA).
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at the 25th Euro Finance Week Dinner hosted by the Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany.
· Germany Wholesale Prices (October), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (November), ZEW Current Conditions (November)
· France Inflation Rate (October)
· UK Unemployment Rate (September), Claimant Count Change (October), Average Earnings excl. Bonus (September)
· Spain Inflation Rate (October)
· Poland Inflation Rate (October), GDP (Q3)
· Eurozone Balance of Trade (September), Employment Change (Q3), GDP Growth Rate (Q3), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (October), Wholesale Prices (October)
· Qatar Inflation Rate (October)
· Israel M1 Money Supply (October), Inflation Rate (October)
· Turkey Budget Balance (October)
· Bahrain Inflation Rate (October)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The African Union hosts a conference on digital economy development in Harare, Zimbabwe.
· Nigeria’s presidential election candidates’ debate.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nigeria Food Inflation (October), Inflation Rate (October)
· Kenya Balance of Trade (July/August/September)
· Botswana Inflation Data (October)
· Rwanda Interest Rate Decision
· Namibia Inflation Rate Decision
Wednesday, November 16, 2022:
Global
· The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meet in Vienna, Austria through November 18. They are expected to talk about Iran’s efforts to build a nuclear weapon and their lack of responsiveness to effort to negotiation. They could pass a resolution criticizing Tehran, which would be significant. They will also discuss North Korea’s nuclear weapon program, the situation in Ukraine, and other significant issues.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· NASA hopes to launch the Artemis I test flight mission around the moon from Kennedy Space Center in Florida. This is part of a larger NASA plan to build a permanent moon base to support a mission to Mars.
· The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is hosting the 2022 US Treasury Market Conference. Speakers include NY Fed President John Williams, Undersecretary of Treasury for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang, and a number of other experts discussing the state of the Treasury market and possible reforms.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech at the 59th Annual Economic Forecast Luncheon, Phoenix, Ariz.
· US Retail Sales (October), Export Prices (October), Import Prices (October), Manufacturing Production (October), Industrial Production (October), Capacity Utilization (October), Business Inventories (September), Retail Inventories (September), NAHB Housing Market Index (November), MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate/Index/Purchases Index (November)
· Canada Inflation Rate (October), Housing Starts (October), CPI (October)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Russia will host multilateral talks on Afghanistan in Moscow. The meeting will include senior officials from China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China House Price Index (October), Foreign Direct Investment (October)
· India Passenger Vehicles Sales (October)
· Japan Machinery Orders (September), Tertiary Industry Index (September)
· Australia Wage Price Index (Q3)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the European School in Frankfurt, Germany.
· ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in the ABI’s Executive Committee meeting in Rome, Italy.
· ECB Board Member Edouard Fernández-Bollo gives remarks at VIII Jornado de Pensiones organized by Cino Días and Ibercaja in Madrid, Spain.
· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill gives a Speech at the Bristol Festival of Economics ‘What next for central banks’”.
· UK Inflation Rate (October), PPIs (October), Labor Productivity (Q3), Retail Price Index (October)
· Italy Inflation Rate (October), CPIs (October)
· Russia GDP (Q3)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel GDP Growth (Q3)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Kenya hosts Congo peace talks in Nairobi.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Retail Sales (September)
· Ghana PPIs (October)
Thursday, November 17, 2022:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The 2022 Cato Institute Summit on Financial Regulation entitled “The Rise of ESG and the Future of Financial Regulation” in Washington DC. Several leading US regulators and industry leaders are expected to speak.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Philip Jefferson speeches on “Opportunity and Inclusive Growth” at the Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute 2022 Institute Research Conference in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at the Financial Literacy and Education Commission Public Meeting (virtual event)
· US Housing Starts (October), Building Permits (October), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (November), Initial Jobless claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions/CAPEX Index/Employment/New Orders/Prices Paid Reports (November), Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index and Composite Index (November)
· El Salvador Balance of Trade (October)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· India M3 Money Supply (October)
· Japan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October)
· Australia Unemployment Figures (October)
· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (October), Balance of Trade (October)
· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision, Lending Facility Rate (November), Deposit Facility Rate (November)
· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (October)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· British Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt is expected to announce his medium-term fiscal statement alongside new forecasts for the economy and public finances from the Office for Budget Responsibility.
· NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly holds its annual session in Madrid, Spain.
Economic Reports/Events –
· UK Fiscal Statement
· Italy Balance of Trade (September)
· Spain Balance of Trade (September)
· Switzerland Balance of Trade (October)
· Eurozone New Car Registrations (October), Inflation Rate (October), Construction Output (September), CPI (October)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Lebanon to hold its sixth attempt to elect a president after former President Michel Aoun’s term expired on October 31. The political vacuum is leading to a greater risk of a return to civil war.
· The 4th Milken Institute Middle East and Africa Summit are held in Abu Dhabi. The theme of the Summit is “Celebrating the Power of Connection” and will focus heavily on digital issues.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey FX Reserves (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Mozambique GDP (Q3)
Friday, November 18, 2022:
Global
· The COP27 Summit concludes in Egypt.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Existing House Sales (October), CB Leading Index (October)
· Canada Raw Material Prices (October), Retail Sales (September), New Housing Price Index (October), PPIs (October)
· Peru Current Account (Q3)
· Chile GDP (Q3), Current Account (Q3)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders’ Summit will be held in Bangkok, Thailand, and go through November 19. There are 21 member countries attending, and the theme of the conference is “Open. Connect. Balance.” Neither President Biden nor Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend, but Vice President Kamala Harris will participate in place of President Biden.
Economic Reports/Events –
· India Deposit Growth (Week of November 4), FX Reserves (November), Bank Loan Growth (Week of November 4)
· Indonesia Loan Growth (October)
· Thailand Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October), New Car Sales (October)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU General Council meets to prepare for the European Council meeting on 15-16 December 16, 2022.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the 32nd Frankfurt European Banking Congress in Frankfurt, Germany.
· France Unemployment Rate (Q3)
· UK Retail Sales (October)
· Switzerland Industrial Production (Q3)
· Italy Construction Output (September)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Uzbekistan to host the EU-Central Asia Connectivity Conference in Samarkand.
· The International Institute for Strategic Studies holds its annual IISS Manama Dialogue 2022 in Bahrain. EU President Ursula von der Leyen is scheduled to speak. The Dialogue will feature a large number of regional and US, and EU officials.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt Unemployment Rate (Q3)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Building Permits (September), S&P Rating Assessment released.
Saturday, November 19, 2022:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Canada CPIs (October)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Malaysia holds legislative elections to elect a new Prime Minister. This will be the fourth Prime Minister in the last two years.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Monaco celebrates National Day.
· The 2021 Rugby League World Cup (men’s and women’s) finals are held in Manchester, UK.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, November 20, 2022:
Global
· The World Cup begins in Qatar and runs through December 18.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US President Biden celebrates his 80th birthday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Kazakhstan holds snap presidential elections (two years earlier than expected).
· Nepal holds national and provincial elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
London’s “Big Ben” will ring its bells for the first since 2017.
· It will ring once at 11 a.m. to mark a two-minute moment of silence for those lost in World War I&II.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Equatorial Guinea holds presidential, legislative, and local elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.