A New Inflection Point in the Ukraine War After a Russian Missile Hits Poland?

The news this afternoon that a Russian missile struck a small town in the Hrubieszów district near the town of Przewodow, Eastern Poland, suggests we may be reaching a new inflection point in the war.

While we are awaiting confirmation that it was a Russian, US intelligence officials are anonymously confirming it was, in fact, a Russian missile. Polish media is reporting at least two Polish civilians are dead. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki convened a meeting of his Council of Ministers for National Security and Defense Affairs.

Undoubtedly, phone lines between NATO members are burning up tonight as Poland considers invoking Article 4, which would require formal consultations with other NATO members, or invoking Article 5, which would call for the collective defense of NATO following an attack on one member - effectively, a clarion call to respond militarily to a Russian attack.

We would note the missile struck roughly the same time Russia launched its biggest missile attacks on Ukrainian cities in months, plunging much of Ukraine into darkness. The attacks on Ukrainian electrical facilities were so severe that they caused massive power outages in neighboring Moldovia.

As of a month ago, Russia had successfully destroyed or seriously degraded Ukraine’s power grid by as much as 50 percent. We have to believe the massive wave of missile attacks today and over the past two weeks have substantially increased that percentage.

Source: Financial Times; Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC

While NATO leadership called for restraint until “all the facts are known,” we believe this may trigger a significant inflection point in the Ukrainian War. While we would be surprised to see NATO go to war over this incident, it may push NATO to drop its resistance to supplying Ukraine with higher-quality and longer-range missile systems, tanks, and possibly fighter/bomber aircraft.

In the next few weeks, Ukraine is expected to receive advanced anti-missile systems from NATO known as NASAMS (Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System). But after today’s attack, Western leaders may think this is not enough to protect NATO members along the border of Russia and Ukraine.

NASAM Air Defense Systems are the latest advanced weaponry arriving in Ukraine to defend against Russian missile attacks. They are expected to arrive in the next week. (source: TheDrive.com)

At the very least, we will likely see NATO forces bulked up on the Polish-Ukraine and Polish-Russian borders. This is a fast-moving event; we will hear much more about potential outcomes in the next 24-48 hours.