Europe Is All Gassed Up

The EU has done an extraordinary job of offsetting the loss of Russian oil and gas due to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. The early predictions were, quite frankly, dire. Germany seemed the most at risk. News “analysis” of how Berlin was moving toward encouraging citizens to take cold showers and turn the thermostats way down throughout the winter months lit up in the media.

But the EU aggressively tapped into old and new global LNG markets to make up for what Russia could no longer supply. By way of example, we would point to Mozambique exporting LNG to the EU for the first time - an economic win for Mozambique, one of the world’s poorest countries which also possesses Africa’s largest offshore gas fields.

Add to this unusually mild weather in the EU in October and November (so far), and we have to believe they will make it through the winter without having to implement draconian measures. We still have months of winter to go, but the outlook is, for now, we believe quite positive. We will continue to keep our eye on the state of the EU gas storage stats, but one has to believe this is not what Russian President Vladimir Putin had hoped for at this point.

European Union Natural Gas Storage as of November 18, 2022. (Source: Bloomberg LLP)

Update: An Inflection Point in the Ukraine War After a Russian Missile Hits Poland?

It turns out the Polish Government's initial assessment was incorrect. Partially incorrect. The missile, which hit the town of Przewodow in Eastern Poland and killed two civilians, was not fired by Russian Forces from Russia. But it was a Russian missile that Ukrainian Air Defense Forces apparently fired as part of their defensive actions against the more than 100 missiles Russian Forces fired at civilian targets in cities across western Ukraine yesterday. It was the most missiles fired by Russian Forces to date into Ukraine since the war started, but we would quickly note Ukrainian Air Defense Forces destroyed 77 of the Russian missiles and 11 Russian “Kamakazie” drones (which are mostly supplied by Iran).

As more details emerge about how exactly such a tragic misfiring could have occurred, we continue to believe, as we wrote yesterday, the tragic event last night will spur Western governments and NATO to reassess and ultimately upgrade the anti-missile and anti-drone missile systems as well as re-opening the debate over sending tanks and fighter planes to Ukraine.

The point we have heard today among US government sources is that Ukrainian Forces are forced to use Russian missiles, which they are not well-trained to operate and are, more often than not, recently captured from Russian Forces on the battlefield, as a means to defend themselves. As one Washington source told us this morning, "desperate times require desperate measures, which means tragic circumstances can result, as we saw in Poland yesterday. The US needs to re-think what we are sending Ukraine and how to speed up their delivery."

This point was reinforced this afternoon by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley,  when they briefed the press on the situation in Poland.   Milley spoke of the need for an “integrated air and missile defense system for Ukraine.” Achieving what Milley called for would clearly require supplying more advanced weaponry to Ukraine.

But what more can NATO send? Quality and quantity are the challenges. In terms of quantity, stockpiles of many main-stay anti-missile/anti-drone weapons are dangerously low in the US. This includes Stingers and NASAMS, which we wrote about yesterday. And while quantity is a growing challenge, so is the ability to link all these Western systems together so they can communicate and more effectively respond to Russian attacks.

In terms of quality, a good example is Patriot Missiles, considered the best air defense system out there but which the US does not provide to Ukraine. Why not? The US Defense Department has said doing so would require US forces to enter Ukraine to operate them because they are so incredibly sophisticated to operate with state-of-the-art radar and command centers. For a US soldier to become proficient in maintaining a Patriot system, they must undergo a minimum of 53 weeks of training.

Nevertheless, once Poland and NATO conclude their investigation of the missile strike, we anticipate Ukraine ramping up its bids to get more advanced weaponry. And this means the thin line NATO is walking with Russia to avoid the war expanding further will become harder to walk.

A Patriot Missile Long-Range Air-Defense System (Source: www.army-technology.com)

A New Inflection Point in the Ukraine War After a Russian Missile Hits Poland?

The news this afternoon that a Russian missile struck a small town in the Hrubieszów district near the town of Przewodow, Eastern Poland, suggests we may be reaching a new inflection point in the war.

While we are awaiting confirmation that it was a Russian, US intelligence officials are anonymously confirming it was, in fact, a Russian missile. Polish media is reporting at least two Polish civilians are dead. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki convened a meeting of his Council of Ministers for National Security and Defense Affairs.

Undoubtedly, phone lines between NATO members are burning up tonight as Poland considers invoking Article 4, which would require formal consultations with other NATO members, or invoking Article 5, which would call for the collective defense of NATO following an attack on one member - effectively, a clarion call to respond militarily to a Russian attack.

We would note the missile struck roughly the same time Russia launched its biggest missile attacks on Ukrainian cities in months, plunging much of Ukraine into darkness. The attacks on Ukrainian electrical facilities were so severe that they caused massive power outages in neighboring Moldovia.

As of a month ago, Russia had successfully destroyed or seriously degraded Ukraine’s power grid by as much as 50 percent. We have to believe the massive wave of missile attacks today and over the past two weeks have substantially increased that percentage.

Source: Financial Times; Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC

While NATO leadership called for restraint until “all the facts are known,” we believe this may trigger a significant inflection point in the Ukrainian War. While we would be surprised to see NATO go to war over this incident, it may push NATO to drop its resistance to supplying Ukraine with higher-quality and longer-range missile systems, tanks, and possibly fighter/bomber aircraft.

In the next few weeks, Ukraine is expected to receive advanced anti-missile systems from NATO known as NASAMS (Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System). But after today’s attack, Western leaders may think this is not enough to protect NATO members along the border of Russia and Ukraine.

NASAM Air Defense Systems are the latest advanced weaponry arriving in Ukraine to defend against Russian missile attacks. They are expected to arrive in the next week. (source: TheDrive.com)

At the very least, we will likely see NATO forces bulked up on the Polish-Ukraine and Polish-Russian borders. This is a fast-moving event; we will hear much more about potential outcomes in the next 24-48 hours.

Assessing Three Current Geopolitical Risks

Saudi Arabia and NOPEC, Taiwan Invasion Risk, and Russia Using a Dirty Bomb

We have received a lot of questions about many geopolitical issues in the last 72 hours. While China risk in the wake of the Chinese Communist Party Congress tops the list – and we are preparing a separate analysis on that issue – we thought it worthwhile to give a quick assessment of Saudi Arabia/NOPEC, Taiwan invasion risk, and the situation in Ukraine. 

Please let us know if you have any questions.

Saudi Arabia and Risk of Congress Passing NOPEC:

• We see the prospects of the US Congress passing NOPEC legislation as minimal. The Biden White House will oppose it, as will a pretty strong bipartisan majority.

• Biden intends at this point to consult with Congress after the elections on Saudi relations and possible policy options in retaliation for the recent OPEC+ decision.

• However, we believe there is likely to be little substantively done, and the risk is more in the “headline risk” category (e.g., “White House orders review of US military deployments in the Middle East” or “White House reviewing military sales to Saudi Arabia”). To be clear, we do not believe there will be any real/substantive cut-back on US military deployment in the Middle East or noticeable/substantive cut-back in military sales to Saudi.

• We also would point out that Israel is already making clear to the White House and key US congressional allies that Saudi is an increasingly important security tie/ally in the region and does not want to see any further deterioration in US-Saudi relations.

• The real risk is if the US does nothing in response to the OPEC+ decision, according to US sources we have spoken to, it may encourage Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) to do other things that are not in the US’s strategic interests.

Taiwan Invasion Risk:

• Two recent headlines have prompted markets to ramp up concern over a possible invasion of Taiwan – 1) Secretary of State Tony Blinken’s comments at Stanford University earlier this week and 2) US Navy Chief of Naval Operations Michael Gilday suggesting an invasion could happen as soon as this year.

• We cross-checked both supposed comments and found both are being taken out of context and poorly reported by the media. First, Blinken’s office tells us he did not say an invasion was imminent or close to imminent. Blinken sat for a ‘fireside chat’ with former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at Stanford.  You can read the entire transcript, including questions from the audience HERE.  Here is what Blinken said: 

“What’s changed is this – it goes back to something that Condi was saying at the very beginning – there has been a change in the approach from Beijing toward Taiwan in recent years.  And instead of sticking with the status quo that was established in a positive way, a fundamental decision that the status quo was no longer acceptable, and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline. And if peaceful means didn’t work, then it would employ coercive means – and possibly, if coercive means don’t work, maybe forceful means – to achieve its objectives. And that is what is profoundly disrupting the status quo and creating tremendous tensions.”

•  Second, Admiral Gilday’s comments were as follows: “What we’ve seen over the past 20 years is that they have delivered on every promise they’ve made earlier than they said they were going to deliver on it,” Gilday said. “When we talk about the 2027 window, in my mind, that has to be a 2022 window or potentially a 2023 window; I can’t rule it out.”

• Admiral Gilday – as any military leader worth their salt, he/she would never rule anything out and must plan for all contingencies. Additionally, we would note we are in the midst of an intense debate on Capitol Hill over defense spending.  

• Our view is that Chinese President Xi Jinping will take, as a matter of policy going forward, a tougher verbal stance against Taiwan than before US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) recent controversial visit to Taiwan. Beijing will seek to leverage the current state of relations permanently – but that does not mean invasion is imminent. 

• How will we know if China is preparing to invade Taiwan? We would point to this excellent analysis by the former CIA Chief China Analyst on what to look for if in fact China were preparing to invade Taiwan:   https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/10/03/how-we-would-know-when-china-is-preparing-to-invade-taiwan-pub-88053  

• After reading this piece, you can see none of the “trip wires” that would necessarily be tripped by China on the way to invasion have been tripped.

Russia/Ukraine and the Use of a Dirty Bomb:

• US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has had two extraordinary phone conversations in the last three days with his Russian counterpart, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. 

• Austin and Shoigu last spoke a few months ago (although there have been constant back-channel communications via two other nations).

• The purpose of the second call (Pentagon statement HERE) was to rebut growing Russian chatter of Ukraine using a dirty bomb – an almost certain “false flag” operation where Russian Forces would detonate a dirty bomb and blame it on Ukraine. A dirty bomb would be small – even the size of a suitcase – and would spew radioactive or biological (highly unstable and hard to use) or chemical materials.

• Shoigu pressed Austin on the claim that it is Ukraine and not Russia that is preparing to use a dirty bomb – as he did in separate calls with the French and Turkish Defense Minister. 

• Using a dirty bomb - and other forms of “asymmetric warfare” would fall into the risks we have previously outlined as Putin increasingly is backed into a corner by poor military execution of the war. A good example is the four holes blown in Nord Stream I & II. Other concerns to Western security officials are:

- Blowing underwater transatlantic communication cables between the Western Hemisphere and Europe, Africa, and the Middle East (they are unguarded. See the attached note to a possible Russian effort to do this back in January 2022);

- Attacks on commercial and government/military satellites;

- Additional attacks on oil/gas pipelines virtually anywhere in the world that are used to supply Europe;

- Sabotaging the global food supply chain: By cutting off grain/fertilizer exports from Ukraine and limiting what is sold by Russia, the impact would be felt hardest in the Middle East and Africa and could potentially set off a mass-migration event toward Europe in the spring of 2023. 

• Concerning the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the Biden Administration continues to believe the risk remains fairly low. What would Russia hit? There are no massed Ukrainian military forces, only large civilian centers. We would note Putin was warned by Chinese President Xi at the Shanghai Organization meeting in Uzbekistan last month that using tactical nuclear weapons would result in China no longer being able to assist Russia and would force Beijing to join the rest of the world in strongly condemning Putin.

• Aside from the risk of deploying a dirty bomb – which would have limited geographical reach but cause mass hysteria among troops and civilian populations – we continue to believe there is a greater chance of Putin using chemical weapons. Russia managed and deployed chemical weapons in Syria for the Assad Regime. It has been documented that there were more than 60 chemical attacks between 2014-2020, all done with the direct assistance of Russian chemical weapons specialists (see Arms Control Association’s Timeline of Syrian Chemical Weapons Activity 2012-2022). Most of these were chlorine attacks – lethal but also able to quickly dissipate, leaving little evidence.  

It didn’t even last 24 hours… Putin breaks newly signed grain deal with missile attack on Odessa

Yesterday afternoon brought news of a deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey enabling grain shipments to resume from Ukraine. The deal was seen as going a long way to helping to ease the growing food security crisis. Less than 24 hours later, Russian President Putin broke the deal when four Russian “Kalibr” cruise missiles rained down on the port city of Odessa. Two directly hit Odessa’s port and the other two were shot down by Ukrainian defense forces.

Less than 24 hours had passed since Putin agreed to the deal. Why Russia would break the deal so quickly is still unknown - especially since Moscow’s approval of the deal was something of a small PR win. Now, by so aggressively and wantonly disrespecting the UN (not to mention Turkey), Russia further demonized itself internationally.

But we do see one reason we see for the violation: Russia is making money a lot of money on selling bootleg grains. The attack has set off wild swings in prices and probably will continue to do so for some time. We note wheat prices fell more than 6 percent on the announced deal. Now, they are spiking up again. The benefit to Russia is significant. Since seizing Crimea in 2014 and now significant portions of the Donbas - including Sevastopol — in the last four months, the flow of sanctioned Russian wheat (including wheat stolen in mass quantities from Ukraine by Russian forces) has gone up more than 50 percent.

The UN estimates there are currently 828 million people around the world going hungry of whom an estimated 40-50 million are on the brink of starvation. For Putin, keeping the wheat/grain markets off balance serves two purposes: 1) it helps further fund Putin’s war efforts, and, 2) it puts increased pressure on Western governments to step up to help those countries at most risk for food shortages.

Moreover, considering many of these countries are found in North and Central Africa, the risk of mass migration north across the Mediterranean Sea and into the EU is growing by the day. With the growing list of economic challenges, the EU is already facing due to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, dealing with a mass-migratory crisis would be a significant political and social destabilizing issue.

Read Around the World in a Weekend April

April 29, 2022

RUSSIA

• Microsoft Blog “The hybrid war in Ukraine”

  Microsoft released a report detailing the relentless and destructive Russian cyberattacks they have observed in a hybrid war against Ukraine, and what we’ve done to help protect Ukrainian people and organizations. Starting just before the invasion, we have seen at least six separate Russia-aligned nation-state actors launch more than 237 operations against Ukraine – including destructive attacks that are ongoing and threaten civilian welfare. The destructive attacks have also been accompanied by broad espionage and intelligence activities. 

• Rand Corporation “Russia’s Tragic Failure to Reform Its Economy”

  Russia's invasion of Ukraine and resulting sanctions will likely devastate Russia's economy. If the country had taken a more productive economic course over the past two decades, it might be looking toward a different future—one in which economic reforms had more tightly integrated Russia with the economically advanced countries, enhanced Russian influence and power, and built global trust. Instead, Russia has cast the West as its enemy, and its influence, power, trust, and reputation are shattered.

• Foreign Affairs “What Does the West Want in Ukraine?”

  Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass asks the question of how success in Ukraine will be defined and argues it needs to be done now – before it is too late.

China

• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace “US-China Technological ‘Decoupling’: A Strategy and Policy Framework”

  Washington has awakened to find the United States deeply technologically enmeshed with its chief long-term rival. America built those technology ties over many years and for lots of good reasons. China’s tech sector continues to benefit American businesses, universities, and citizens in myriad ways—providing critical skilled labor and revenue to sustain U.S. R&D, for example. But that same Chinese tech sector also powers Beijing’s military build-up, unfair trade practices, and repressive social control. What should we do about this? 

• Rhodium Group “Chinese FDI in Europe: 2021 Update”

  Chinese outbound investment to the rest of the world stalled in 2021. While overall global FDI rebounded strongly, Chinese outbound FDI edged up by just 3 percent to USD 114 billion (EUR 96 billion). Meanwhile, China’s global outbound M&A activity slipped in 2021 to a 14-year low, with completed M&A transactions totaling just EUR 20 billion, down 22 percent from an already weak 2020.

India

• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace “What is in Our Interest”: India and the Ukraine War”

  As Russia’s war in Ukraine unfolds, India’s national interests have so far dictated a position of formal neutrality. Here are the factors New Delhi faces in balancing its foreign policy priorities.

• Brookings Institution Podcast “Why globalization is shifting in favor of India, not China”

  Arvind Subramanian, senior fellow at Brown University’s Watson Institute and Center for Contemporary South Asia, and former chief economic advisor to the Government of India, talks with host David Dollar about a range of trade and foreign relations issues India faces. In particular, he explains why globalization is shifting in India’s favor rather than China’s, how India views trade relations with China, Russia, and the West, and prospects for continued good relations with the United States, especially as India takes a more neutral stance on Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Pakistan

• The Diplomat Podcast  “What’s Driving Pakistan’s Political Crisis?”

  Pakistan’s political arena is in turmoil. Prime Minister Imran Khan, facing a no-confidence vote, made a last-ditch attempt to avoid his fate by dissolving Parliament altogether, alleging a foreign plot headed by the U.S. to oust him. The Supreme Court intervened, allowing the vote to proceed, but Khan and his PTI are refusing to recognize the new government. Most PTI lawmakers resigned, leaving Pakistan’s National Assembly with 100 open seats. Meanwhile, the Pakistani military, the “hidden hand” behind national politics, has attempted to remain neutral – but its lack of support helped crown Khan’s replacement.

Lebanon

• Carnegie Middle East Center “Resurrecting Arafat in Beirut?”

  Hamas, with Hezbollah’s help, is building up a military presence in Lebanon, whose ultimate consequences could be devastating.

Iran

•  Carnegie Sada “The Geopolitics of the Iran-Qatar Electricity Grid Connection”

  Last February, during Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi’s visit to Qatar, the two countries agreed to connect electricity grids. Currently, Iran’s electricity network is connected to Iraq, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. For Iran, this is a step towards strengthening energy diplomacy, but without a change in Iran’s foreign policy — that is, without the removal of sanctions and attracting foreign investment — it cannot use its full potential in the energy sector and, ultimately, will not be able to increase its influence on the international stage.  

Africa

• Council on Foreign. Relations “How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Will Impact Africa’s Energy Transition”

  The Russian invasion of Ukraine will shift the geopolitics of decarbonization, with particularly stark implications for energy politics in Africa.

• Foreign Affairs “Rebels Without a Cause: The New Face of African Warfare”

  In the past, most armed groups on the continent were focused on seeking to topple governments or secede and found new countries.  But the new face of many African conflicts today is one where those taking up arms are more likely to do so as a means of bargaining over resources.

Latin America/Caribbean

• IMF Blog “Latin America Faces Unusually High Risks”

  The War in Ukraine, higher inflation, tighter financial conditions, economic decelerations of key trading partners, and social discontent may dim growth prospects.

• Center for Strategic and International Studies “The Caribbean in the Crossfire”

  Between Covid-19, Narcotics, China, and Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, the Caribbean is facing unprecedented challenges – all of which should be of maximum concern to the United States.

• Americas Quarterly “Latin America Doesn’t Want a New Cold War”

  Regional governments should take steps to ensure they are “not once again a battleground for larger powers,” an Argentine scholar writes.