The Global Week Ahead: October 16-23, 2022

The markets will be paying close attention to China historic 20th National Congress of the Communist Party where President Xi Jinping will be handed an unprecedented third term in office.  But we expect there will be much more important announcements coming during the course of the week as Xi steers China into a new direction politically, socially, and economically. 

We will also be watching a number of major EU meetings this week focused on how the EU deals with the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, its impact on Europe’s economy, and how best to mitigate the impact.  Russia continues to suffer significant losses to Ukrainian Forces and concerns about what Russian President Putin might do via asymmetric warfare mount.  In the United States, Washington is fairly quiet as we are 22 days away from the mid-term elections.

Economically, we expect it to be another tough week for economic data globally. Inflation data will be coming out from a number of leading nations.  In particular,  China will be releasing a host of key data reports this week.  But markets may be watching most intensely data coming out of the UK giving a deeper sense of overall economy and inflation. 

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, October 16, 2022:

Global

·       The UN World Health Summit 2022 begins in Berlin (through October 18th)

·       The UN observes World Food Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil’s two presidential candidates, President Jair Bolsonaro and former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, participate in a televised debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s People’s National Congress begins in Beijing.  It is here where President Xi Jinping is expected to be enshrined in the constitution allowing him an unprecedented third term as President.  Other major constitutional changes are expected, too.

·       The 28th Public Works Minister Meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will be held through Oct. 17.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (September)

·       China Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September), PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 17, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold consultations on the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara.

·       The UN Development Program launches the 2022 Multidimensional Poverty Index looking at the diversity of poverty and reveals new patters that can help target development efforts worldwide.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress remains out of session until after the election.  They are expected to resume work on November 14th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (October)

·       Brazil IBC-Br Economic Activity (August)

·       Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (August)

·       Peru Unemployment Rate (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

·       Japan Industrial Production (August), Tertiary Industry Index (August), Capacity Utilization (August), Industrial Production (September)

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

·       Singapore Balance of Trade

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing and Services PMIs (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU is expected to approve a monitoring mission of the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg to exchange views on the Russian war on Ukraine.  They will also discuss issues related to ethe COP 27 meeting and the situation in Ethiopia.

·       EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets (through October 18th) to reach a political agreement on the fixing of fishing opportunities in 2023 the Baltic Sea.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz welcomes Spain’s King Filipe as part of an official visit.

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with Ms. Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with Mr. Manfred Weber, Ms. Iratxe García-Pérez and Mr. Stéphane Séjourné, Chairs of the European People’s Party Group, the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats and the Renew Europe Groups in the European Parliament

·       France’s President Emmanuel Macron opens the Paris Motor Show.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindo speaks on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the Euro at the Consejo General de Economistas de Madrid in Madrid, Spain.

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane participates in a roundtable event “For a New European Fiscal Framework” organized by Bocconi University and Deutsche Bank (a live streaming event).

·       Italy Inflation Rate (September)

·       Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East/Eurasia:

Political/Social Events –

·       The Organization of Turkic States’ foreign affairs ministers will informally meet in Astana, Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Budget Balance (September), Auto Production (September)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·      The corruption trial of former South African President Jacob Zuma resumes.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria BCB Focus Market Readout, Inflation Report (September)

Tuesday, October 18, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council holds a briefing on the UN stabilization mission to Mali and then a briefing in the afternoon on the UN Mission in Kosovo.

·       The UN convenes the 25th Session of the Committee of Experts on International Cooperation in Tax Matters in Geneva.

·       The UN Office of Counter-Terrorism cohosts a two-day conference with the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan on “International and Regional Border Security and management Cooperation to Counter Terrorism and Prevent the Movement of Terrorists” in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Industrial Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Redbook (October), NAHB Housing Market Index (October), Net Long-Term TIC Flows (August)

·       Canada Housing Starts (September)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (September)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China GDP Growth Rate (Q3), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Industrial Capacity Utilization (Q3), Unemployment Rate (September), Foreign Direct Investment (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets to prepare for the EU Council meeting on October 20-21.

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with the EU College of Commissioners.

·       France's General Confederation of Labor (CGT) union will hold country-wide strikes to demand higher wages.

·       The UK’s BBC celebrates its 100th anniversary.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnable participates in an alumni event at the University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany.

·       Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October), New Car Registrations (September)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October), ZEW Current Conditions (October)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (August)

·       UK 30-year Treasury Gilt Auction

·       Spain Balance of Trade (August)

Middle East/Eurasia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Kuwait will hold its first parliament session since the general election in September.

·       Azerbaijan celebrates Restoration of Independence Day.

·       Qatar officially opens the Al-Kharsaah solar power plant, which is integral to the country’s ambition to host the first net-zero World Cup later this year.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (September).

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Africa Energy Week Conference begins in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, October 19, 2022:

Global

·       The UN General Assembly meets to on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals.

·       The UN Security Council holds in the morning a briefing on the UN’s Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic. In the afternoon,

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The White House will host a workshop with 50 representatives from consumer product groups, manufacturing companies, and tech think tanks regarding the National Security Council’s plans for consumer product cybersecurity labeling program.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US MBA Mortgage Market Index and other Key Indexes (October), Housing Starts/Building Permits (September)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (September), CPIs and PPIs (September), Raw Materials (September)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade/Imports (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation will hold its finance ministers meeting in Bangkok, Thailand, through Oct. 21.

·       Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee will deliver his maiden policy address.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Tripartite Social Summit meets in Brussels to discussion “tackling the energy crisis and the cost-of-living crisis: How to protect the economy, businesses, and workers.”  Attendees include EU President Ursala von der Leyen, leaders of BusinessEurope, the European Trade Union Confederation, SGI Europe, SMEunited, and CEC European Managers.

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen participates in the European Parliament plenary debate on the preparation of the European Council meeting (being held October 20-21)

Economic Reports/Events –

·       UK Inflation Rate (September), PPIs (September), Retail Price Index (September) 10-year Gilt Treasury Auction

·       Eurozone CPI (September), Inflation Rate (September), Construction Output (September)

·       Russia PPIs (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP (Q2)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (September), Retail Sales (August)

Thursday, October 20, 2022: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson and Governor Lisa Cook will give remarks at the “At Exploring Careers in Economics” conferences sponsored by the Federal Reserve.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will give pre-recorded remarks at the 2022 Federal Reserve Community Development Research Seminar Series: Toward an Inclusive Recovery.

·       US Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index/CAPEX Index/New Orders/Business Conditions (all October), Existing Home Sales (September), CB Existing Home Sales (September),

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (September), Economic Activity (August), Leading Indicators (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysia's election commission will meet to set a date for the 15th general election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate (1Y and 5Y for October)

·       Japan Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

·       Australia Unemployment Figures (September)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Export Orders (September)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (September)

·       South Korea PPIs (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       European Council Meeting (through October 21st). They will discuss the situation in Ukraine, energy policy, economic issues, and external relations.

·       Informal meeting of Transport Ministers (Through October 21st)

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen participates in the EPP Summit.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPIs (September)

·       UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (September)

·       France Business Confidence

·       Eurozone Current Account (August)

·       Italy Construction Output (August), Current Account (August)

·       Poland PPIs (September),  Employment Figures (September), Industrial Production (September), Industrial Production (September)

Middle East/Eurasia:

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurasian Economic Union will hold its intergovernmental council in Yerevan, Armenia. 

·       Lebanon will elect a new president during a special parliament session.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Lending Rate (October), Overnight Borrowing Rate (October), FX Reserves (October), Central Government Debt (September)

·       Iran Inflation Rate (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (August)

Friday, October 21, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council holds a briefing and consultations on the UN’s Support Mission in Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Retail Sales (August), Wholesale Sales (August), Manufacturing Sales (September), New Housing Index (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (September)

·       India FX Reserves (October), Bank Loan Growth (October)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (September), Foreign Direct Investment (Q3)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council meets (day 2)

Economic Reports/Events –

·       UK Retail Sales (September), Public Sector Net Borrowing Figures (September)

·       Poland Retail Sales (September)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (August), Wholesale Prices/Retail Prices (August)

·       Eurozone Consumer Confidence (October)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Qatar Total Credit Growth (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, October 22, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Steve Bannon, a former aide to President Trump, will be sentenced for contempt of Congress and defying subpoena convictions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida headlines a list of speakers at the Mt. Fuji Dialogue 2022.  The theme of this year’s Dialogue,  is “The US-Japan Alliance in the Age of Strategic Competition.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde attends and participates in “Mein Liblingsstück” event (my favorite piece) at the Alte Opera in Frankfurt, Germany.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 23, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Slovenia holds presidential elections.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron, Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari, Italian President Serio Mattarella join Pope Francis for the annual International Meeting of Dialogue and Prayer for Peace among World Religions in Rome (through October 25th).  The conference is expected to focus on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.