The Global Week Ahead: October 23 - 30, 2022

Written By Francis Kelly

Perhaps the most significant event to watch this week is not a traditional calendar item:  Will Ukrainian forces capture Kherson from Russian invaders, and what will this mean for the future of the war in Ukraine?  We will be watching what happens there closely.  Also this week, we will be watching the “Davos in the Desert” – Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative, which begins Tuesday and will draw some of the world’s most prominent business leaders and political leaders.  The meeting comes amidst heightened tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia but will still likely draw many top US business leaders.  Finally, Brazil will hold its hotly contested presidential run-off election next Sunday. Polls suggest it will be a close outcome and, at this point, might be too close to call.

On the economic front this week, China is expected to release a host of key economic reports, but markets will be holding their breath to see if that happens after Beijing unexpectedly suspended the release of GDP data last week.  Meanwhile, markets will be watching US GDP and initial unemployment figures to better understand the risk of a recession. Markets are already watching the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan closely as they deliberate interest rate decisions.  We would also note that this week Russia’s central bank will decide whether to raise rates - an indicator of how impactful sanctions have or have not been on the country.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, October 23, 2022:

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

  • The National Congress of the Communist Party of China concludes.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Japan Jibun Bank’s Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, Composite PMI (all for September),

  • Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

  • Philippine Budget Balance (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

  • Italy’s new government led by Giorgia Meloni (who is expected to become Italy’s first female Prime Minister) is sworn into office.

  • A delegation of German parliamentarians (the second in recent weeks) travels to Taiwan (through October 26th).

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events 

  • Nothing significant to report. 

 

Monday, October 24, 2022:

Global

  • Today is United Nations Day as well as World Development Information Day.

  • The UN Security Council holds a briefing and consultations on the UN’s security mission in Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September), S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October)

  • Canada Manufacturing Sales (September)

  • Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (October)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Current Account (August & September), FDI (September)

  • Chile PPIs (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • China Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (September), GDP (Q3), Industry Capacity Utilization (Q3), Unemployment Rate (September), Retail Sales (September), Industrial Production (September), House Price Index (September)

  • Japan Jibun Bank Services/Composite/Manufacturing PMIs (October)

  • Australia S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October)

  • Indonesia M2 Money Supply (September)

  • Taiwan Retail Sales (September), Industrial Production (September), M2 Money Supply (September)

  • South Korea Consumer Confidence (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

  • EU environmental ministers will seek to approve the EU’s general negotiating mandate for the upcoming UNZ Climate Change Conference and Biological Diversity Conference (COP27 and COP15, respectively).

  • The European Union Military Committee’s Chiefs of Defense meeting (through the 25th)

  • Russia’s Valdai Discussion Club, a think tank, holds its 19th Annual Meeting in Moscow. Entitled “A Post-Hegemonic World: Justice and Security for Everyone,” it will have more than 100 experts, politicians, economists, and diplomats from 41 countries speaking. Russian President Putin will address the meeting on Thursday.

·         EU President Delivers a speech at the Global Grand Challenges Annual Meeting 2022 hosted by the European Commission and the Global Grand Challenges

  • The UK’s Unite the Union, which are made up of port operatives, maintenance engineers, and control room workers at Liverpool’s docks, begin a two week strike over pay.

  • The UK’s CWU (communications workers) at BT Group and Openreach – including emergency 999 call handlers – go on strike over pay.

  • The UK’s GMB union, which represents ambulance workers votes over whether to go on strike.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Germany S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October)

  • France S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October)

  • Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October)

  • UK S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (October) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Israel Inflation Expectation (September)

  • Qatar Total Credit Growth (September), M2 Money Supply (September)

  • Iran Inflation Rate (September)

  • Kuwait Inflation Rate (September) 

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

  • South Africa will host peace talks between Ethiopia and rebel Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

  • Zambia celebrates Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report. 

 

Tuesday, October 25, 2022: 

Global

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet for a briefing and consultations on the Middle East, including Syria’s use of chemical weapons.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

  • In one of the most closely watched US Senate races, Pennsylvania Lt. Governor John Fetterman (D) will debate Republican candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz (R).

  • Grenada celebrates Thanksgiving, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • US Redbook (October), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (August), House Price Index (August), CB Consumer Confidence (October), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments, Richmond Fed Services Index (October),

  • Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, FGV Consumer Confidence (October), IPCA Mid-Month CPI (October)

  • Mexico Economic Activity (August)

  • Argentina Retail Sales (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

  • Taiwan hosts the 11th Global Assembly of the World Movement for Democracy. More than 70 countries will participate (through October 27th). The event will be kicked off with a conversation between Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu and Ukraine’s Parliamentary Foreign Policy Chair Oleksandr Merezhko.

  • Kazakhstan marks Republic Day, celebrating their independence from the Soviet Union.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • China FDI ((September)

  • Indonesia FDI (Q3)

  • Thailand Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

  • Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)

  • Singapore CPI (September), Core Inflation Rate (September) 

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Germany Ifo Business Climate (October), Ifo Current Conditions (October), Ifo Expectations (October)

  • UK CBI Business Optimism Index (Q4), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (October)

  • Poland Unemployment Rate (September)

  • Spain PPIs (September) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

  • Saudi Arabia hosts its annual Investment Conference in Riyadh. Known as the “Davos in the Desert,” The Future Investment Initiative will see many leading Wall Street CEOs and other global CEOs attend despite the heightened tensions between the US and the Kingdom. You can find the full agenda and list of speakers HERE.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (August)

  • Turkey Business Confidence (October), Capacity Utilization (October)

  • Hong Kong Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

  • Australia Federal Budget presented. It is the first budget to be presented by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government.

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (August) 

 

Wednesday, October 26, 2022 

Global

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

  • The Washington, DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds “The Asia Architecture Conference 2022.” Numerous senior US and Asian officials and business leaders are expected to watch.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • USA MBA Mortgage Indexes (October), New Home Sales (September), Building Permits (September), Goods Trade Balance (September), Retail Inventories/Wholesale Inventories (September)

  • Canada Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Report and press conference

  • Colombia Business Confidence (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Japan Leading Economic Index (August), Coincident Index (August)

  • Singapore Industrial Production (September)

  • South Korea Business Confidence (October)

  • Australia Inflation Rate (Q3), Monthly CPI Indicator (September), RBA CPIs (Q3) 

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • France Consumer Confidence (October), Employment Figures (September)

  • Eurozone Loans to Households (September), Loans to Companies (September)

  • Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (October)

  • Russia Industrial Production (September) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Israel Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

  • Zimbabwe’s ruling party will begin a Congress to choose party leaders for the 2023 election.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • South Africa 2022 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement

 

Thursday, October 27, 2022:

Global

  • The UN Security Council holds a vote on Colombia and the UN mission in the Western Sahara.

  • The G-20 Health Ministerial meeting is held in Bali, Indonesia.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

  • Former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez will appear at a court hearing in New York for drug trafficking charges he is facing.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • US GDP Growth Rate (Q3), Durable Goods Orders (September), Initial Jobless Claims (October), Real Consumer Spending (Q3), Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Indexes (October)

  • Canada CFIB Business Barometer (October), Average Weekly Earnings (August)

  • Brazil Unemployment Rate (September), Bank Lending Rate (September), Net Payrolls (September)

  • Mexico Balance of Trade (September), Unemployment Rate (September)

  • Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

  • Argentina Consumer Confidence (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • China Industrial Profits (September), Consumer Confidence (October)

  • South Korea GDP (Q3)

  • Australia Export/Imports Prices (Q3)

  • Taiwan Consumer Confidence (October)

  • Vietnam FDI (October)

  • Thailand Industrial Production (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

  • In the UK, the Royal British Legion launches its annual poppy appeal ahead of the remembrance of Armistice Day and Remembrance Day Sunday next month.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference with ECB President Christine Lagarde. The ECB is expected to raise rates 75 basis points.

  • Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (November), Bavaria CPIs (October), Brandenburg CPIs (October)

  • Italy Business Confidence (October), Consumer Confidence (October), Industrial Sales (August)

  • UK CBI Distributive Trades (October)

  • Spain Unemployment Rate (Q3)

  • Russia Corporate Profits (August), Business Confidence (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

Lebanon and Israel will formally sign a historic maritime border demarcation deal, allowing both nations to drill for off-short natural gas.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Israel Manufacturing PMIs (September)

  • Turkey MPC Meeting Summary, Inflation Report, Economic Confidence Index (October), Balance of Trade (September), Tourism Revenues (Q3), FX Reserves (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • South Africa PPIs (September)

 

Friday, October 28, 2022:

Global 

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold votes on hold an open debate on issues in the Middle East. They will also hold votes on the UN peacekeeping missions in Somalia and Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

  • 60th Anniversary of the end of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • US Personal Income/Personal Spending (September), PCE Price Index (September), Michigan Consumer Expectations/Current Conditions/Inflation Expectations Reports (October)

  • Canada GDP (August), Budget Balance (August)

  • Chile Copper Production (September), Industrial Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

  • Colombia Central Bank Interest Decision, Cement Productions (September)

  • Mexico Fiscal Balance (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

  • Japan is expected to Cabinet approval for a new economic stimulus spending plan.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Japan Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision & Quarterly Outlook Report and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko press conference, Unemployment Rate (September), CPIs (October)

  • India FX Reserves (October)

  • Australia PPIs (Q3)

  • Taiwan GDP (Q3)

  • Singapore URA Property Index (Q3), Unemployment Rate (Q3)

  • Vietnam Retail Sales (October), Industrial Production (October), Inflation Rate (October0, Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

  • UK’s Conservative Party will elect a replacement for recently resigned Prime Minister Liz Truss.

  • Deadline for the formation of a power-sharing executive in Northern Ireland. If an agreement cannot be reached, the UK’s Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris is expected to call an Assembly election.

  • The Czech Republic celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Germany GDP ((Q3), Inflation Rate (October), North Rhine Westphalia CPI (October), Hesse CPI (October), Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (October), Saxony CPI (October)

  • France GDP Growth (Q3), PPIs (September), Household Consumption (September), Inflation Rate (October)

  • Spain GDP (Q3), Inflation Rate (October), Business Confidence (October)

  • Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (October)

  • Italy PPIs (September), Inflation Rate (October), CPIs (October)

  • Poland Inflation Rate (October)

  • UK Insolvency Figures (September)

  • Eurozone’s Economic Sentiment/Industrial /Consumer Sentiment Reports (October), Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)

  • ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters

  • Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and press conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Qatar Balance of Trade (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Nigeria FX Reserves (October)

  • Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (October)

 

Saturday, October 29, 2022:

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

  • Slovakia holds municipal and regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

  

Sunday, October 30, 2022:

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

  • Brazil holds its presidential runoff election. Polls have recently tightened considerably between former President Lula da Silver (“Lula”) and incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, suggesting a statistical tie.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events – 

  • Japan’s Fukushima gubernatorial election to be held.

  • Japan’s official start of campaigning for the Kumamoto mayoral election.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Japan Retail Sales (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

  • Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (October), Retail Sales (September), Private Sector Credit (September)

  • South Korea Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Construction Output (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events – 

  • Informal meeting of EU Trade Ministers (through October 31st).

  • European Daylight Savings Time ends.

  • Russia observes its annual day of remembrance for the victims of Stalin’s purges.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Israel Unemployment Rate (September)

  • South Africa Private Bank Lending (September), M3 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

  • Nothing significant to report

Francis Kelly
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