The Global Week Ahead: October 9 - 16, 2022:

Two events will dominate the global stage both politically and economically in the coming seven days: The first is the World Bank/International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, DC.  Finance ministers and central bank governors from around the world will gather to discuss several critical issues but battling a global recession, and rising inflation will be paramount on the list.

This week’s second major event will be the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, beginning October 16th.  The Congress is widely expected to enshrine President Xi Jinping further into the country’s constitution, giving him an unprecedented third term as President.  Other major constitutional changes are expected to be adopted including the possibility of giving Xi the title of “chairman” – an honorific previously given only to Communist China’s founder Mao Zedong and a further sign of the extraordinary size and scope of Xi’s political power.

This week will be fairly quiet globally regarding economic data reports.  But watch for two significant reports on Thursday: The US will get updated inflation figures and unemployment numbers, and China will release inflation figures and export/import numbers, giving markets a better sense of the country’s economic trajectory.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, October 9, 2022: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

China will convene the 7th Plenum of the 19th Party Congress to review preparations for the 20th Party Congress which begins October 16th.

Economic Reports/Events –

Australia Ai Group Services Index (September)

Indonesia Consumer Confidence (September

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

Austria holds presidential elections.

Germany’s Lower Saxony holds state elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·      Uganda celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 10, 2022:

Global

·       World Bank/International Monetary Fund Annual Meetings and related ancillary events begin and conclude October 16th.  The full schedule of events can be found HERE.

·       The Institute for International Finance holds its Annual Membership Meeting in Washington DC.

·       The International Nuclear Safety Group (a part of the International Atomic Energy Agency) meetings in Vienna, Austria.

·       The UN General Assembly holds its 16th Plenary meeting.  It will also hold its 11th Emergency Special Session.

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara.

·       The United Nations marks World Mental Health Day.

·       The Nobel Committee awards the Nobel Prize for Economics.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US celebrates Columbus Day, a federal holiday (the stock market is open, bond markets are closed)

·       The US Congress remains out of session until after the November 8th mid-term elections.

·       Canada celebrates Thanksgiving Day, a national holiday.

·       Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Lael Brainard gives a speech  on “Restoring Price Stability in an Uncertain Economic Environment” at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting in Chicago, Illinois

·       Peru Balance of Trade (August)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea celebrates the 77th anniversary of its founding.

·       Taiwan celebrates National Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Current Account (August)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (October), NAB Business Confidence (September), Building Permits (August), Private House Approvals (August)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision, Consumer Confidence (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       European Union President von der Leyen is in Estonia to meet Estonian Prime Minister Katja Kallas and President Alar Karis, as well as deliver a keynote address at Tallinn Digital Summit.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Berlin.  The two countries have been verbally jousting over energy supply policy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in IMF/World Bank Annual meetings in Washington DC.

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane gives opening remarks at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt, Germany.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Algeria holds a meeting – a “National Dialogue” - for Palestinian leaders in a bid to find common ground among the various factions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production Rate (August)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (August), Auto Production (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       The South African Transport and Allied Workers Union are set to being a strike against Transnet SOC Ltd, South Africa’s largest port and freight rail operator.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Tanzania Inflation Report (September)

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (August & September)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (September) 

Tuesday, October 11, 2022:

Global

·       The IMF publishes its annual Global Financial Stability Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US NFIB Business Optimism Index (September), Redbook (October), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (October), Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan celebrates Sports Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (August)

·       Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current (September), Reuters Tankan Index (October), Machinery Orders (August)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Informal meeting of EU Energy ministers in Prague, Czech Republic (through October 12th)

·       The UK Supreme Court begins hearing arguments from the Scottish National Party over whether they can legislate a referendum for independence without the Westminster government’s permission.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey does a fireside chat with Tim Adams, President & CEO of the Institute for International Finance at the IIF Annual Members Meeting in Washington DC.

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, DC

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane gives the keynote speech at the 7th SUERF, CGEG, COLUMBIA, SIPA, EIB and SOCIETE GENERALE Conference on “EU and US Perspectives: New Directions for Economic Policy” in New York.

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria does a fireside chat with Tim Adams at the 20222 IIF Annual Membership Meeting in Washington DC

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane does a fireside chat at the New York Fed’s Central Banking Seminar in New York.

·       UK Unemployment figures (August)

·       Italy Industrial Production (August)

·       Russia Current Account (Q3)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Current Account (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Britain’s High Court of Justice hears a further legal challenge to the country’s deal with Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (August)

Wednesday, October 12, 2022: 

Global

·       The G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in Washington, DC (all are here for the IMF/World Bank Meetings).

·       OPEC Monthly Report

·       The UN Security Council holds a briefing and consolation on Colombia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives a speech on “New Technologies, the Fed, and Inclusion” at the 2022 D.C. Fintech Week in Washington, DC

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech “Forward Guidance as a Monetary Policy Tool: Considerations for the Current Economic Environment” at the Money Marketeers of New York University in New York.

·       US Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes, PPIs (September), MBA Mortgage Rate (October), MBA Mortgage Index (October), WASDE Report,

·       Mexico Industrial Production (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       A court in Myanmar is expected to hand down additional verdicts on corruption charges against Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace Prize winner and former Prime Minister.

·       The Commonwealth of Independent States holds a summit for foreign ministers in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Vehicle Sales (September)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (September), Bank Lending (September), PPIs (September)

·       Australia Consumer Confidence Inflation Expectations (October)

·       Indonesia Car & Vehicle Sales (September)

·       India Manufacturing Production (August), Inflation Rate (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Ministers begin meetings in Brussels, chaired by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

·       EU President von der Leyen delivers a speech at the EU Ambassadors Conference.  She later meets with the College of Commissioners.

·       Informal Meeting of Employment and Social Affairs Minister in Prague, Czech Republic (through October 13th).

·       Spain celebrates National Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde does a fireside chat with Tim Adams, President and CEO of the Institute for International Finance at their 2022 Annual Membership Meeting in Washington DC.

·       UK GDP (August), Construction Output (August), Goods Trade Balance non-EU (August), Industrial Production (August), Manufacturing Production (August), Industrial Production (August), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (September)

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (August)

·       Poland Industrial Production (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Turkey Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, October 13, 2022:

Global

·       International Energy Oil Market Report (October) released.

·       The Arctic Circle Assembly begins in Reykjavik.

·       The UN Security Council holds a consultation on the situation in Yemen.

·       The UN Human Rights Council will meet to discuss the situation in Haiti.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US House of Representative’s January 6th Investigative Committee will hold their likely last big hearing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Core Inflation Rate (September), Initial Jobless Claims (October), CPI (September)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (August)

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Kazakhstan will host the 30th Anniversary Summit of the Conference on the Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA).  Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend.

·       Taiwan will end mandatory quarantines for visitors to the island other than those coming from China, Macao, and Hong Kong. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (September), PPIs (September), Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (September), New Yuan Loans (September), Outstanding Loan Growth (September), Total Social Financing (September), M2 Money Supply (September)

·       South Korea Imports/Export Prices (September)

·       Singapore GDP (Q3)

·       Indonesia Motorbikes Sales (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Justice and Home Affairs Council  meetings to discuss the state of investigations and prosecutions of Russians for war crimes (through October 14th).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Inflation Rate (September), Current Account (August)

·       UK BoE Credit Conditions Survey

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon’s parliament meets to try again to come to an agreement on the countries next President.  Previous efforts have failed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (September), Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Turkey FX Reserves (October)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (September)

·       Iran Inflation Rate (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold/Mining Production figures (August)

Friday, October 14, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Retail Sales (September), Import Price Figures (September), Export Prices (September), Michigan Consumer Sentiment/Current Conditions/5-Year Inflation Expectations/Consumer Expectations Inflation Expectation Reports (October), Business Inventories (August)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (August)

·       Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (August), Manufacturing Sales (August), Wholesale Sales (August)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August), Balance of Trade (August)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (September)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       India and the United States begin the 15th joint military exercise called “Yudh Abhyas” in Uttarakhand, 60 miles from the disputed India-China border.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, FX Reserves ((October), Passenger Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Indonesia WPI Fuel (September), WPI Manufacturing (September), WPI Food (September), WPI Inflation (September)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing (September), PPIs (August), Services PMI (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Informal meeting of Eurogroup ministers in an inclusive format with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in Washington DC (as they will all be in Washington DC for the IMF/World Bank Meetings).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (September)

·       France Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (September)

·       Eurozone Balance of Trade (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (September), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (September), MI Money Supply (September), Manufacturing PMI (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, October 15, 2022:

Global

·       The Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee holds its annual conference in Washington DC.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane patriciates in the Annual global macro and digital annual program organized by Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee (RBWC) in Washington DC.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 16, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s People’s National Congress begins in Beijing.  It is here where President Xi Jinping is expected to be enshrined in the constitution allowing him an unprecedented third term as President.  Other major constitutional changes are expected, too.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (September)

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.