The Global Week Ahead: June 25 - July 2, 2022
A Seminal Moment in NATO’s History; Central Bankers Gather to Discuss… Central Banking. And Will We See China’s President Xi Travel to Hong Kong for the 25th Anniversary of the Handover?
June 25 - July 2, 2022
NATO will hold its annual summit in Spain this week – arguably the most important summit held in decades – as it will be closely watched to see how well the alliance holds together in supporting Ukraine’s efforts to defeat Russia. This comes after a two-day G-7 meeting in Germany where much of the political and economic coordination will be laid out for dealing with Russia’s aggression going forward.
Also this week, President Xi is expected to travel to Hong Kong for the anniversary of Hong Kong’s handover to China as well as the inauguration of John Lee as the new Administrator of the island (but this may be canceled as two of Lee’s top aides came down with COVID). If Xi does make the trip, it will be the first time he has left the mainland since January 2020.
Finally, this is going to be a big week for central bankers as many of them gather for the European Central Bank’s annual Forum on Central Banking. In particular, we will be closely watching a panel on Thursday where ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Bank for International Settlements General Manager Agustín Carstens, and Fed Chair Jay Powell will appear together to discuss policy coordination. Here is what we are keeping our eyes on this coming week:
Sunday, June 26, 2022:
Global
The G-7 Summit is to be held at the Elmau Schloss (Bavarian Alps, Germany. It is expected that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend either in person or virtually.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
President Biden is in Europe this week to attend the G-7 meeting in Germany and the NATO Summit in Spain.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Cambodia to announce final results of Cambodia’s National Election Committee’s count of June 5th communal elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
China industrial profits figures (May)
Japan’s Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions released
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
Italy to hold a second round of local elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
Russia expected to default on its foreign debt – the first time the country has done so since 1918. Russia was expected to pay $100 million in dollars and euros to bondholders.
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
The UN Security Council meets to discuss its mission in South Sudan.
In a ceremony in Brussels, the Belgium government plans to return a tooth of assassinated former Congolese Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba to his family.
The East African Community meets to discuss a potential joint force to deal with security issues in the Eastern Republic of the Congo.
Economic Reports/Events
Nothing significant to report.
Monday, June 27, 2022:
Global
The UN Ocean Conference will be held in Lisbon, Portugal.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
The US Congress is out of session for the July 4th holiday and returns on July 11.
The Wall Street Journal holds a Global Food Forum to discuss a wide variety of topics, particularly the growing food security crisis globally as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Economic Reports/Events –
US durable goods orders (May), non-defense goods (May), Pending Home Sales (May), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)
Brazil central bank minutes
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Japan Coincident Index (Apr), Leading Economic Index (Apr)
Thailand exports/imports (May)
Hong Kong Exports/Imports/Trade Balance (May)
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council meet to adopt gas storage regulations.
The Wimbledon tennis tournament begins. All Russian players have been banned from playing.
UK lawyers who are members of the Criminal Bar Association are expected to go on strike over disputes over funding of criminal defense trials.
Economic Reports/Events –
ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal (June 27-29). ECB President Lagard to speak.
Spain PPI (May
France unemployment figures (May)
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Israel’s Knesset can officially dissolve starting on this day.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing of significance to report.
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Tuesday, June 28, 2022:
Americas
Political/Social Events –
The US will see election primaries and run-off races in Colorado, New York, Illinois, Utah, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Mississippi.
Economic Reports/Events –
US goods trade balance (May), wholesale and retail inventories (May), Redbook (Jun), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (Apr), CB Consumer Confidence (Jun), Richmond Fed manufacturing index (Jun), Dallas Fed Services Index (Jun)
Brazil banking lending (Mar)
Argentina's current account (Q1)
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
South Korea's consumer confidence (Jun)
Japan retail sales (May)
Australia retail sales (May)
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
EU Environmental Council meets to reach a consensus on deforestation.
France’s newly-elected National Assembly holds its first session.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is expected to lay out her detailed plan for a second independence referendum.
Ukraine celebrates Constitution Day marking the anniversary of the signing of its constitution in 1996.
The Parliamentary Speaker of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republican to speak before Russia’s Parliament (Duma).
Economic Reports/Events –
Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Jun)
France Consumer Confidence (Jun)
Italy Industrial Sales (Apr)
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Saudi Arabia private bank lending (May)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Seychelles interest rate decision
South Africa non-farm payrolls, South African Reserve Bank quarterly bulletin for Q1
Wednesday, June 29, 2022:
Global
Americas
Political/Social Events –
The UN Human Rights Council meets to discuss human rights in Venezuela.
Economic Reports/Events –
Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell to speak (virtually) on a panel with ECB President Lagarde as part of the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal (see a link to the event above).
US GDP (Q1), Core PCE Prices (Q1), retail consumer spending (Q1), MBA mortgage applications (Jun)
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
China NBS manufacturing PMIs (Jun)
Japan consumer confidence (Jun), industrial production (May)
South Korea's industrial production (May), retail sales (May), construction output (May), manufacturing production (May)
Vietnam GDP (Q2), CPI (Jun), Retail Sales (Jun), Industrial Output (Jun), Exports/Imports/Trade Balance (Jun)
Thailand Value Added Production (May)
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
The Committee on Climate Change in the UK to release their 2022 progress report to Parliament which will assess the UK’s chances of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Turkmenistan to host Caspian Summit in Ashgabat. Russian President Putin is expected to attend.
Economic Reports/Events –
Eurozone economic confidence (Jun), Industrial Confidence (Jun), Services Confidence (Jun)
Germany CPIs (Jun)
Spain retail sales (May), CPI (Jun), business confidence (Jun)
Russia GDP (May), unemployment rate (May), real wage growth (Apr), business confidence (Apr), industrial production (May), retail sales (May)
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Turkey's economic confidence (Jun)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
South Africa's consumer confidence (Q2)
Thursday, June 30, 2022:
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
US initial jobless claims (Jun), Chicago PMI (Jun), personal income & spending figures (May), PCE Price Index (May)
Canada GDP (Apr), CFIB business barometer (Jun)
Brazil's unemployment rate (May), nominal budget balance (May)
Argentina economic activity
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo to meet with Russian President Putin in Moscow.
Philippine President-elect Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. to be sworn into office.
Economic Reports/Events –
China NBS PMI Composite (Jun)
Japan housing starts (May), construction orders (May), unemployment rate (May), CPIs (Jun), Tankan indexes (Q2)
Hong Kong retail sales (May)
Sri Lanka CPI (Jun)
South Korea's industrial production (May), Service Industry Output (May), exports/imports/balance of trade (Jun)
India infrastructure output (May), external debt (Q1)
Indonesia S&P global manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
Russian President Putin to attend 9th Russia-Belarus Forum in Grodno, Belarus.
Economic Reports/Events –
Germany Import Price Index (May), Retail Sales (May), Unemployment figures (Jun)
Italy PPIs (May), Unemployment figures (Jun)
Spain's current account balance (Apr)
France CPIs (Jun), PPIs (Jun)
UK current account (Q1), GDP (Q1), business investment (Q1)
Swedish interest rate decision
Eurozone unemployment rate (May)
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Saudi Arabia hosts OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting
Turkey balance of trade (May), MPC meeting summary, FX reserves (Jun)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Sudan’s pro-democracy parties to hold a March of Millions to protest against the military junta.
Economic Reports/Events –
South Africa's money supply, private credit, PPIs, trade balance, and budget balance (all for May)
Kenya inflation figures (Jun)
Kenya GDP (Q1)
Mauritius GDP (Q1)
Namibia GDP (Q1), money supply (May)
Botswana GDP (Q1)
Zambia GDP (Q1), trade balance (May)
Friday, July 1, 2022:
Global
Brazil takes over the presidency of the UN Security Council in July.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Canada Day is celebrated marking the formation of the Union of the British North American provinces in 1868.
Economic Reports/Events –
US S&P manufacturing PMIs (Jun), ISM manufacturing prices (Jun), construction spending (May)
Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (Jun), industrial production (May), PPIs (May), the balance of trade (Jun)
Mexico business confidence (Jun), FX reserves (May)
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Chinese President Xi Jinping may visit Hong Kong for the 25th anniversary of the handover from the UK to China as well as attend John Lee’s inauguration as chief executive.
Economic Reports/Events –
China Caixin PMI (Jun)
Taiwan Markit PMI (Jun)
Thailand Markit PMI (Jun)
Malaysia Markit PMI (Jun)
Vietnam Market PMI (Jun)
Philippines Markit PMI (Jun)
India Markit PMI (Jun), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (Jun)
Indonesia Markit PMI (Jun), FX Reserves (Jun)
South Korea Exports/Imports/Trade Balance (June), Markit PMI (Jun)
Australia commodity prices (Jun)
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
The Czech Republic assumes the six-month presidency of the EU.
Economic Reports/Events –
Spain S&P Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Italy S&P Manufacturing PMI (Jun), inflation figures (Jun)
France S&P Manufacturing PMI (Jun), budget balance (May)
Germany S&P/BME Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Eurozone S&P Manufacturing PMI (Jun), CPI estimate (Jun)
Russia S&P manufacturing PMIs (Jun)
UK nationwide housing prices (Jun), mortgage approvals (May), BoE consumer credit (May), S&P/CIPS manufacturing PMIs (Jun)
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMIs (Jun)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
South Africa manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Nigeria PMI (Jun)
Saturday, July 2, 2022:
Americas
Political/Social Events –
UFO Day takes place in Roswell, New Mexico.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
China industrial profits (May)
Japan Bank of Japan summary of opinions
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
South Africa’s African National Congress Party to hold elective provisional conference.
Mozambique celebrates National Day.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.