The Global Week Ahead: July 17 - 24, 2022

Written By Francis Kelly

The Week Ahead: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to adversely impact the global political and economic scene; A growing number of African nations are seeking assistance from the IMF as they begin to suffer from the reverberations of the war.  And President Putin meets with his Turkish and Iranian counterparts in Tehran to discuss Syria and Ukraine.

Ukraine continues to dominate the geopolitical and global economic agenda.  The EU Foreign Affairs Ministers meet this week to discuss the current situation in Ukraine as President Putin flies to Tehran to ostensibly discuss the security situation in Syria with the Presidents of Turkey and Iran – but Ukraine will clearly be a major topic, especially with the news this past week of Iran selling advanced military drones to Russia.   Meanwhile, the economic shocks from the war are being felt in a number of countries – particularly African nations.  There are a number of important meetings this week regarding IMF assistance in the face of growing food and fuel shortages as well as growing inflation.  Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday,17 July 2022:

Global:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Americas:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • China and India are expected to hold the 16th corps commander-level talks regarding border tensions.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • Russian President Putin holds a meeting with permanent members of the Russian Security Council to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Monday, 18 July  2022:

Global:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Americas:

Political/Social Events –

  • The High Court in London will resume consideration of a long-running battle between Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and opposition leader Juan Guaidó over control of almost $2 billion of gold reserves held in the Bank of England.

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to hold a telephone call with Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US NAHB Housing Market Index (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • India holds an indirect election of the president of both houses of parliament (by elected members), the elected members of the 29 states, and the elected members of the Union Territories of Delhi and Puducherry.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China FDI (June)

  • Singapore NODX (June)

  • South Korea’s Foreign Minister Park Jin to visit Japan in an effort to strengthen ties.

  • Australia’s RBA meeting minutes

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • The EU foreign affairs ministers are scheduled to meet to discuss the status of the Ukrainian War.

  • The EU Agricultura and Fisheries Council meet to discuss market conditions in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

  • Germany hosts the Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Berlin.

  • The UK is expected to see widespread strikes continue across the country.  Criminal barristers in England and Wales strike for the 5th week, bus drivers and engineers are expected to strike, as are large numbers of the Royal Mail management.

  • The Farnborough Airshow begins.  Known as one of the premier global aerospace events, it returns for the first time in four years due to COVID.

  • The famed Salzburg Festival begins in Austria.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and UK Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi will speak at the Mansion House City Banquet for financial and professional services executives.

  • Italy's balance of trade (May)

  • Spain's balance of trade (May)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey's budget balance (June)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Zambia’s Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane will meet to discuss debt restructuring under a G-20 common framework.  The IMF had approved a package in 2021 but because the country’s numerous creditors could not agree on accepting it, which they now have.

  • Tanzania’s requestion to the IMF for a three-year arrangement under the extended credit facility is to be discussed.

  • The IMF will also review Kenya’s request for waivers from certain loan conditions.

 

Tuesday, 19 July 2022:

Americas:

Political/Social Events –

  • The US Congress is in session this week where the US Senate is expected to begin consideration of a new CHIPS Act (semiconductors).

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard speech;  housing starts (June), Redbook (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • Indonesia’s ride-hailing drivers begin three-day strike in Batam as they seek better working conditions.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Hong Kong unemployment rate (June)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • UK unemployment rate (May), average earnings (May)

  • Eurozone construction output (May), inflation rate (June), CPIs (June), Core Inflation Rate (June)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

  • Russian President Putin, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, and Turkish President Recep Tahyip Erdogan meet in Tehran to discuss stability operations in Syria.

  • Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Hajj opens up registration for Umrah pilgrimage.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Seychelles interest rate decision

  • South Africa non-farm payrolls, South African Reserve Bank quarterly bulletin for Q1

 

Wednesday, 20 July 2022:

Global:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Americas:

Political/Social Events –

  • Colombia’s new Congress takes office as the nation celebrates its independence with a national holiday.

  • The US commemorates the 53rd anniversary of Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin landing on the Moon.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US MBA 30-year mortgage rate (July), existing home sales (June)

  • Canada inflation rate (June), CPIs (June), raw materials prices (June)

  • Argentina balance of trade (June), economic activity (June)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • Sri Lanka will hold an election for a new president and prime minister after angry crowds chased President Gotabaya  Rajapaka and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe out of office (Rajapaka fled the country and is reportedly in Singapore).

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan export/import/trade balance (June), Bank of Japan Quarterly Outlook Report

  • Malaysia export/import/balance of trade figures (June)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • The Conservative Party in the UK is expected to hold a final round of voting for party leadership and a new prime minister.

  • Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Draghi is expected to address the parliament where he may call for a vote of confidence to see whether he still has a majority.  If he does not, parliamentarians will have to decide whether to hold early elections or appoint a new prime minister.

  • The EU is expected to issue new guidelines for the reduction of natural gas.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Germany PPIs (June)

  • UK inflation rate (June), retail price index (June), PPIs (June)

  • Eurozone consumer confidence (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa inflation figures (June)

  • Ghana PPIs (June)

  • The IMF meets to discuss assistance to Burandi 

 

Thursday, 21 July 2022:

Global:

  • The World Health Organization (WHO) holds an emergency meeting on the spread of monkeypox.

Americas:

Political/Social Events –

  • Paraguay hosts the Mercosur Summit.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Conference Board Leading Index (June)

  • Mexico retail sales (May)

  • Canada new housing price index (June)

  • Brazil federal tax revenues (June)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan interest rate decision,  CPIs (June), inflation rate figures (June), Jibun Bank PMIs (July)

  • Hong Kong CPIs (June)

  • South Korea PPIs (June)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • Planned maintenance of Nord Stream I Pipeline is to conclude.  Whether it will actually reopen is another in question.

  • Belgium celebrates its national day.

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB interest rate decision and press conference

  • France business confidence (July)

  • UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey central bank interest rate decision,

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa’s central bank interest rate decision is announced; The Bureau for Economic Research to release Inflation Expectation Survey

 

Friday, 22 July 2022:

Americas:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US PMIs (July)

  • Argentina leading indicators (June)

  • Mexico inflation rate (July)

  • Canada retail sales (May)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan manufacturing PMIs (June)

  • India FX reserves (July)

  • Taiwan unemployment rate (June)

  • Thailand exports (June)

  • Malaysia CPIs (June)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • UK retail sales (June), PMIs (July)

  • France PMIs (July)

  • Germany PMIs (July), Bundesbank monthly report

  • Eurozone PMIs (July)

  • Russia Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • The World Court in the Hague is expected to rule on whether it has jurisdiction to hear a complaint brough by the Gambia against the rulers of Myanmar for alleged genocide against its Rohingya Muslim Minority.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eswatini interest rate decision.

 

Saturday, 23 July 2022:

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

  • Egypt celebrates its National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, 24 July 2022:

Americas:

Political/Social Events –

  • Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro officially launches his presidential candidacy for the Liberal Party.  The elections are in October.

  • Pope Francis begins visit to Canada.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

  • Spain celebrates the feast of St. James the Apostle in Santiago de Compestela, where the famed trail is completed.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Francis Kelly
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