The Week Ahead: EU To Lay Out Path for Membership for Ukraine, Moldavia, and Georgia; The Fed, Other Leading Central Banks Set to Raise Rates
Global Political and Economic Calendar for June 12 - 19, 2022
This week, we are closely watching as the EU begins to formally look at possible EU membership for Ukraine, Moldva, and Georgia. Also this week, Russian President Putin speaks publicly twice - Sunday in an address to the nation on the anniversary of “Russia Day” and later this week at the St. Petersburg International Econmic Forum. Also this week, the US Federal Reserve as well as the Central Bank of Japan and the British Central Bank are set to raise rates in a bid to stave off rising inflation. There is a host of important economic economic data this week - particularly in Germany, France, the US and other leading economies which will give us a better handle on the rise of inflation and growth overall. Here is everything we are watching this week:
Sunday, June 12, 2022:
Political/Social Events:
World Trade Organization (WTO) to hold its first ministerial conference in four years.
Japan’s and China’s defense ministers to meet at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.
France holds the first round of legislative elections.
Italy holds administrative elections and referendum on repealing five judicial laws or decrees.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to give a national address to the nation on the anniversary of Russia Day.
EU’s Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) to meet in Geneva.
Economic Reports/Events:
Americas:
Nothing to report.
Asia:
Japan BSI Large Manufacturing (Q2)
India passenger vehicle sales (May)
Europe:
Nothing to report.
Middle East:
Nothing to report.
Africa:
Nothing to report.
Monday, June 13, 2022:
Political/Social Events:
South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin to meet with US Secretary of State Tony Blinken in Washington DC.
EU Commission President von der Leyen to visit Egypt and Israel (June 13/14).
US Climate Envoy John Kerry to meet with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Mexico.
EU’s Agriculture and Fisheries Council to meet in Luxembourg to discuss fishing rights and issues related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Bennett and then with Palestinian Representatives regarding the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian territorial disputes (Jerusalem and then Ramallah)
The Philippines celebrates Independence Day.
The UK government expected to present legislation on unilaterally revising the Northern Ireland Protocol to the House of Commons, London.
Egypt’s Criminal Court begins the trial of several prominent human rights activists in Cairo.
France hosts the Eurosatory Defense Industry Exhibition in Paris.
The Africa CEO Forum takes place in Abidjan, Ivory Coast.
Economic Reports/Events:
Americas:
US Consumer Inflation Expectations (May), Fed Vice Chair Brainard Speech
Brazil Central Bank Market Readout
Asia:
India Inflation Rate (May)
New Zealand migration figures
Australia NAB Business Confidence (May), House Price Index (Q1),
Europe:
UK GDP (Apr), Balance of Trade (Apr)< Construction Output (Apr), Industrial Production (Apr) Manufacturing Production (Apr), Goods Trade Balance (Apr), Industrial Production (Apr)
Spain consumer confidence (Apr)
Middle East:
Turkey Industrial Production (Apr), Retail Sales (Apr), Current Account (Apr)
Africa:
South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (Apr & May)
Botswana inflation figures
Tuesday, June 14, 2022:
Political/Social Events:
The UK expected to begin deporting the first group of Rwandan migrants.
EU Parliament to hold Environmental and Economic Committee meetings on new criteria for “Green Label” of energy (e.g., will this include natural gas and nuclear or not).
EU’s Employment, Social Policy, Health, and Consumer Affairs Committee to meet (through June 16th) to discuss the EU’s global health policy.
US primaries are to be held in Main, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina.
40th anniversary of Argentina’s surrender in the Falklands War.
Economic Reports/Events:
Americas:
US Core PPIs (May), NFIB Business Optimism Index (May), Redbook (Jun)
Brazil Business Confidence (Jun)
Argentina Inflation Rate (May)
Asia:
China Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May), Unemployment (May), Foreign Direct Investment (May)
Japan Industrial Production (Apr), Capacity Utilization (Apr), Reuters Tankan Index (Jun), Machinery Orders (Apr)
South Korea Unemployment figures (May)
India WPI Inflation (May)
Australia household spending (May); NAB business conditions (May); Westpac Consumer Confidence (Jun)
New Zealand food prices (May)
Europe:
Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jun)
Germany Inflation Rate (May), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jun)
UK Unemployment figures/earning averages (Apr)
Middle East:
Saudi Arabia reports OPEC Monthly Report
Africa:
Tanzania 2022-2023 budget presentations
Uganda 2022-23 budget presentations
Wednesday, June 15, 2022:
Political/Social Events:
European Commission may present recommendations on the candidacy of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia for membership in the EU.
Ukraine Defense Contact Group (made up of defense ministers of countries supplying military aid to Ukraine) to meet.
Saudi diplomatic delegation visits Washington to discuss possible US Presidential visit to Saudi Arabia. We could see an announcement this week of President Biden’s intention to travel to the Kingdom.
9th World Congress of Oceans to be held in Singapore (through June 17th).
Czech Republic to present political agenda for the upcoming presidency of the EU Council.
Russia, Turkey, and Iran hold the 18th “Astana Process” meeting to monitor Syria’s ceasefire.
Economic Reports/Events:
Americas:
US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (2:00 p.m.), Retail Sales (May), Import Prices/export Prices (May), Business Inventories (Apr), NAHB Housing Market Index (Jun); Retail Inventories (Apr)
Brazil Central Bank interest rate decision, IBC-BR Economic Activity (Mar)
Asia:
China House Price Index (May)
Australia consumer sentiment (Jun), Unemployment rate (May)
New Zealand current account balance (Q1)
Indonesia Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (May),
Japan Tertiary Industry Index (Apr), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (May)
India Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (May)
South Korea Import Prices/Export Prices (May)
Europe:
ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks at the London School of Economics.
Eurogroup Meeting
Eurozone Industrial Production (Apr), Balance of Trade (Apr)
Germany Wholesale Prices (May)
France Inflation Rate (May)
Middle East:
Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (May)
Turkey Budget Balance (May)d
Africa:
South Africa's retail sales
Kenya fuel prices
Nigerian inflation figures
Namibia inflation figures, Central Bank interest rate decision
Thursday, June 16, 2022:
Political/Social Events:
French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi are planning to visit in-person Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky in Kyiv, Ukraine.
United Nations Security Council discusses the situation in Haiti.
Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to discuss Pakistan’s status.
Egypt hosts the East Mediterranean Gas Forum in Cairo.
India hosts Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers commemorating the 30th anniversary of relations between India and ASEAN.
Economic Reports/Events:
Americas:
US Housing Starts (May), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun), Jobless Claims (Jun),
Canada Wholesale Sales (Apr)
Asia:
Japan Central Bank interest rate decision
Australia consumer inflation expectations (Jun); Labor force figures (May)
New Zealand GDP (Q1)
Europe:
Eurozone finance ministers to meet to discuss Exchange Rate Mechanism II, digital euro, fiscal rules reform, and banking union in Brussels.
Eurozone Labour Cost Index (Q1), Wage Growth (Q1)
UK Bank of England Interest Rate Decision
Italy Inflation figures (May)
Spain Balance of Trade (Apr)
Russia GDP Growth Rate (Q1)
Middle East:
Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves, Auto Production (Jun)
Africa:
Botswana’s Central Bank interest rate decision
Friday, June 17, 2022:
Political/Social Events:
Japan is scheduled to implement a ban on all Russian heavy-duty equipment being sold in Japan.
Russian President Putin to speak at St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
EU’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council to meet in Brussels to discuss Solvency II, the Pillar 2 Directive, and other issues.
Nigerian presidential candidates are required to submit the names of their running mates.
The feast of Corpus Christi is celebrated in Catholic Church worldwide and in other western churches.
Iceland celebrates its national day.
Economic Reports/Events:
Americas:
Federal Reserve Board Chair Powell Speech, US industrial Production (May), Manufacturing Production (May), CB Leading Index (May)
Canada PPIs (May), Raw Materials Prices (May)
Asia:
India Deposit Growth (Jun), Foreign Exchange Reserves (Jun)
New Zealand Manufacturing PMI (May)
Europe:
EcoFin Meeting
Eurozone Inflation Rate (May), CPI (May)
Italy Construction Output (Apr), Balance of Trade (Apr)
Middle East:
Nothing to report.
Africa:
Bloomberg South Africa Economic Survey released.
Saturday, June 18, 2022:
Political/Social Events:
Nigeria holds gubernatorial elections.
Economic Reports/Events:
Americas:
Nothing to report.
Asia:
Nothing to report.
Europe:
Nothing to report.
Middle East:
Nothing to report.
Africa:
Nothing to report.
Sunday, June 19, 2022:
Political/Social Events:
Colombia to hold its presidential runoff election.
France holds run-off legislative elections.
Celebration of Juneteenth (emancipation of slaves) in the US.
Economic Reports/Events:
Americas:
Nothing to report.
Asia:
China Loan Prime Rate (Jun)
Europe:
Nothing to report.
Middle East:
Nothing to report.
Africa:
Nothing to report.