The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

December 31, 2023 - January 7, 2024

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

2023 now comes to a close, and we welcome 2024, hoping and praying for peace and prosperity for all. We won’t be writing a retrospective of 2023 - there is plenty of that sort of analysis flying around - and keep our focus on what is ahead. The week ahead will be, overall (at least so far), a quiet week on both the geopolitical and global economic fronts.

Beginning with the geopolitical outlook, all the major international bodies of importance to the markets will see new leadership. On January 1st, Belgium assumed the six-month rotating chair of the European Union, and Russia took the chair of the BRICS as several new members officially joined (although Argentina formally rejected an invitation to join late last week). Italy takes the chair of the G7, Brazil takes the chair of the G20, Laos takes the chair of ASEAN, and (for the next month) France takes the chair of the UN Security Council.

How each of these countries successfully presses their respective geopolitical vision of the world - or not — will be important to markets in 2024. While changes can be seen as incremental, they can also, at times, be massive. And there is little doubt already that Russia will push hard to use the BRICS to drive a wider wedge between the Global South and the West, while Brazil will use the G20 chair as a means to elevate the Global South and Latin America’s role in geopolitics.

Looking regionally, tensions and violence in the Middle East escalated over the last week, not only in Gaza but on the Israeli-Lebanese border and the Red Sea as US and British Naval Forces began efforts to protect commercial shipping from Houthi attacks (resulting in the sinking of three small Houthi naval craft and more than a dozen Houthi rebels killed). With this in mind, we will be watching on Wednesday when Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah gives a broadcast address marking the 4th anniversary of the death of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani.  The speech, which will be delivered in Beirut, could give an indication of Hezbollah’s military intentions toward Israel.

In Asia, we are watching as Taiwan goes into the final two weeks of presidential campaigning. The country goes into an enforced black-out period on Wednesday on all polls in an effort to prevent disinformation campaigns (mostly coming from China).

Turning to the global economic data calendar, it is a particularly quiet week. There are no central bank speeches of note being given and no central bank meetings (although the US Federal Reserve releases FMOC meeting minutes are released on Wednesday).

What markets will be watching all week is the release of PMIs and other important inflation data from virtually every major market. Also, this week, the US employment numbers on Friday will be an important signal as to how fast and well the Federal Reserve has cooled down the markets and might think of beginning the task of lowering interest rates.

Below is what else we are closely watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, December 31, 2023

 Global

  • HAPPY NEW YEAR’S EVE!  Goodbye 2023, hello 2024!

  • Most of the major multinational organizations will see a change in which country is chairing it in 2024.  Russia will take over the presidency of the BRICS tomorrow, Italy will take over the chair of the G7, Brazil will take over the chair of the G20, and Laos will take over the chair of ASEAN tomorrow (January 1).

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Today Azerbaijan celebrates International Solidarity Day, a public holiday commemorating the solidarity of the people after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989.

  • Timor-Leste celebrates National Heroes Day, a public holiday commemorating the death anniversary of Nicolau Lobato.  Lobato was the country’s first Prime Minister who was assassinated by Indonesian military forces in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The final step of Brexit takes place today as all retained direct EU legislation in the United Kingdom will be revoked under the "Brexit Freedoms" bill.  

  • Today is Spain’s last day holding the presidency of the European Council of the European Union. Belgium takes the Presidency of the Council on January 1, 2024.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Monday, January 1, 2024

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The US Congress remains out of session this week and returns the following week (The Senate on January 8 and the House of Representatives on January 9).  They face a packed schedule, mostly focused on funding requests for Ukraine and Israel and how to deal with the US southern border issue Republicans are demanding be dealt with as part of a deal on Ukraine funding.  They are also approaching critical deadlines to get the 2024 appropriations bills finalized.

  • In the US, the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) goes into effect today.  The CTA, enforced by FinCEN, is a new set of tax regulations aimed at exposing the Beneficial Ownership of shell companies to battle corruption, money laundering, and tax evasion.

  • Today is Haiti's 220th Independence Day, celebrating the abolition of slavery in the country in 1804.

  • The Disney Company’s copyright of the first Mickey Mouse officially ends.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Tuesday, January 2, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Construction Spending (November)

  • Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Balance of Trade (December)

  • Mexico S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Fiscal Balance (November)

  • Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (November)

  • Argentina Tax Revenue (December)

  • Paraguay Current Account (Q2)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Singapore S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Inflation (December), Tourist Arrivals (November)

  • Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (December), Commodity Prices (December)

  • Singapore GDP (Q4), URA Property Index (Q4)

  • Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Spain observes Reconquest Day, commemorating when the country liberated lands captured by the Moors 9n 1492.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December), Loans to Companies (December), Loans to Households (December), M3 Money Supply (November)

  • Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Total Credit (November)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah will give an address to mark the fourth anniversary of the death of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani.  The speech, which will be delivered in Beirut, could give an indication of Hezbollah’s military intentions toward Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Ethiopia Inflation (December)

  • Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (December) 

 

Wednesday, January 3, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Federal Reserve Board FOMC Minutes

  • Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin will speak before the Raleigh Chamber Launch 2024, Raleigh, North Carolina.

  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI (December),  JOLTs Job Opening (November), MBA Mortgage Market Index (December 29), API Crude Oil Stock Change (December 29)

  • Mexico FX Reserves (November), Business Confidence (December)

  • Brazil Current Account (November), FDI (November)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Taiwan begins an enforced blackout period on all polling in advance of the January 13 presidential elections.  It is expected that Chinese-backed online disinformation will likely surge during this ten-day period.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (December)

  • Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December), Business Confidence (December)

  • New Zealand Global Dairy Price Trade Price Index (January 2)

  • Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December), Inflation (December), Wholesale Prices (December), Balance of Trade (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Germany Unemployment (December)

  • Spain New Car Sales (December), Unemployment (December), Tourist Arrivals (November)

  • Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (December)

  • Russia Inflation (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (December)

  • Qatar Balance o of Trade (November)

  • Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December), Inflation (December), CPI (December), CPI (December), PPI (December)

  • Israel M1 Money Supply (October)

  • Oman Total Credit (October)

  • Bahrain Inflation (November)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Thursday, January 4, 2024

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Challenger Job Cuts (December), ADP Employment Change (December), S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (December), EIA Natural Gas Stock Change (December 28), EIA Cured Oil Stocks Change (December 29), EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (December 29), EIA Crude Oil Imports Change (December 29), LMI Logistics Managers Index (December)

  • Canada S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (December)

  • Brazil PPI (November), Banking Lending (November)

  • Uruguay Inflation (December)

  • Colombia PPI (December)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (December)

  • Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI December)

  • South Korea FX Reserves (December)

  • Singapore S&P Global PMI (December)

  • Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (December), Judo Bank Composite PMI (December)

  • Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (December), Retail Sales (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (December)

  • Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (December), Inflation (December)

  • France Inflation (December), HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (December)

  • UK S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (December), Bank of England Consumer Credit (November), Mortgage Approvals & Lending (November), Net Lending to Individuals (November)

  • Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (December)

  • Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (December)

  • Ireland AIB Services PMI (December), Harmonized Inflation (December)

  • Romania PPI (November)

  • Hungary Balance of Trade (November)

  • Slovenia Balance of Trade ((November)

  • Greece Unemployment (November)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt S&P Global PMI (December), FX Reserves (December)

  • UAE S&P Global PMI (December)

  • Turkey Auto Sales (December), FX Reserves (December 28)

  • Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (December)

  • Qatar Financial Centre PMI (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa S&P Global PMI (December)

  • Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (December)

  • Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (December)

  • Uganda Stanbic Bank Uganda PMI (December)

  • Ghana S&P Global PMI (December)

 

Friday, January 5, 2024

 Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin will speak before the Maryland Bankers Association First Friday Economic Outlook Forum, Linthicum Heights, Maryland.

  • US Non-Farm Payrolls (December), Unemployment Rate (December), ISM Services PMI December), Factory Orders (November), Banker Hughes Rig Count (January 5), Total Vehicle Sales (December)

  • Canada Unemployment (December), Ivey PMI (December)

  • Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (December), Gross Debt to GDP (November), Nominal Budget Balance (November), Industrial Production (November)

  • Chile Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes

  • Colombia Inflation (December), Exports (November)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMIs (December), Consumer Confidence (December)

  • India S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (December), Fiscal Year GDP Growth (2023-2024), FX Reserves (December 29)

  • Singapore Retail Sales (November)

  • Philippines Inflation (December), Unemployment (December), Industrial Production (November), FX Reserves (December)

  • Taiwan Inflation (December), FX Reserves (December)

  • Thailand Inflation (December)

  • Hong Kong FX Reserves (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (December), Inflation (December), CPI (December), PPI (December)

  • Germany Retail Sales (November), HCOB Construction PMI (December), New Car Registrations (December)

  • France HCOB Construction PMI (December)

  • Italy HCOB Construction PMI (December), Inflation (December), CPI (December)

  • UK Halifax House Price Index (December), New Car Sales (December)

  • Spain Business Confidence (December), Consumer Confidence (December)

  • Poland Inflation (December), FX Reserves (December)

  • Hungary PPI (November), Unemployment (November), Inflation (December)

  • Switzerland FX Reserves (December)

  • Ukraine FX Reserves (December)

  • Greece Construction Output (Q3)

  • Serbia PPI (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Jordan GDP (Q3)

  • Israel Business Confidence (December), FX Reserves (December)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Angola GDP (Q3)

  • Uganda Business Confidence (December), Balance of Trade (December)

 

Saturday, January 6, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

  

Sunday, January 7, 2024

 Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • CES 2024 (Consumer Technology Association) begins in Las Vegas.  The world’s largest consumer technology trade show will display what is expected to be cutting-edge AI, virtual reality, and other advanced consumer electronics.  Executives from Nvidia, Samsung, and other global tech firms will be present to brief reporters and consumers.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The Russian Orthodox Church celebrates Christmas.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

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Francis Kelly
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