The Global Week Ahead January 8 - 15, 2023

The world is returning to a regular schedule this week, coming off the holidays.  We will see several important bilateral and multilateral meetings in the coming days.

President Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will travel to Mexico City for a “Three Amigos” Summit hosted by Mexican President Andrés Manuel López (“AMLO”) to discuss trade issues as well as the ongoing migration challenges.  

Later in the week, Japan’s Prime Minister will meet with Biden – after meeting earlier in the week with his counterparts in France, the UK, Italy, and Canada – to discuss a multitude of issues of concern to the G7 (Japan is chairing the G7 this year) as well as the War in Ukraine.

The US Congress, now that the House of Representatives finally was able to elect Representative Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as Speaker, will get down to work with several hearings and essential organizational decisions.

The markets will look closely at the consumer price index (CPI) and other inflation data from the US, China, Japan, Australia, Brazil, and Mexico.  The only major economy looking at monetary policy change this week will be the Bank of Korea which is likely to raise interest rates another 25 basis points (bringing the rate up to 3.5 percent).

Here is what we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, January 8, 2023: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden will travel to El Paso, Texas, to assess border enforcement operations and meet with local officials to discuss the ongoing migration crisis.  Biden will then travel to Mexico City for the “Three Amigos” Summit on Tuesday with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López (“AMLO”) and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

·       Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi visits Ecuador, Brazil, and Argentina to discuss trade issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will officially reopen its border to international travelers, dropping its mandatory quarantine rule and its daily flight limits.  Additionally, cross-border travel between Hong Kong and the mainland will set to resume.

·       Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will visit Indonesia through Monday, his first overseas trip as Prime Minister.  He will meet with Indonesian President Joko Widodo to discuss trade, economic issues, and migrant protections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg to attend and speak at the People and Defense (“Folk och Fösvar”) National Conference in Sälen, Sweden. The conference and the organization which runs it is dedicated to discussions about Sweden’s security, defense, and society’s crisis preparedness (e.g., what to do if invaded by Russia).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will speak at the American Economics Association Annual Meeting on “Monetary Policy for conventional times: What toolkit for the future?” in New Orleans, Louisiana.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) is set to announce its annual policy priorities at its annual election strategy conference.

·       Benin to hold legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Monday, January 9, 2023:

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will co-host with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif the International Conference on Climate Resilient Pakistan in Geneva, Switzerland.  The goal is to encourage and coordinate an international pledge to help rebuild Pakistan after debilitating floods last year.

·       The UN-backed Scientific Assessment Panel to the Montreal Protocol on Ozone Depleting Substances quadrennial assessment report, published every four years, will be released.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US College Football Championship – the University of Georgia vs. Texas Christian University – will be played at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Consumer Inflation Expectations (December), Consumer Credit Change (November)

·       Canada Ivey PMI (December)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida begins a global travel schedule taking him to France, the UK, Italy, Canada, and the US through January 15th.

·       A group of German parliamentarians, all members of the Free Democratic Party, will visit Taiwan.

·       Japan celebrates Coming of Age Day, a national holiday that is held to congratulate and encourage all those who have reached the age of maturity (20) between April 2, 2022, and April 1, 2023.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Building Permits (November)

·       Indonesia FX Reserves (December)

·       Singapore FX Reserves (December)

·       Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy, in Rome, Italy.

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen Delivers a keynote speech at the book launch of ‘La saggezza e l'audacia. Discorsi per l'Italia e per l'Europa’ with selected speeches of the late President of the European Parliament David Sassoli in Rome, Italy.

·       The UK Parliament returns to session.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will speak at the Money Market Association of New York University on “The UK Economic and Monetary Policy Outlook”  in New York.

·       Eurozone Unemployment (November)

·       Germany Industrial Production (November)

·       France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), Current Account (November)

·       Italy Unemployment (November)

·       UK BBA Mortgage Rate (December)

· Hungary's Balance of Trade (November), Industrial Production (November), Budget Balance (December)

·       Switzerland Unemployment (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Budget Balance (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria is expected to begin, at the order of the Central Bank of Nigeria, limiting cash withdrawals.  Major protests are likely to break out nationwide.

·       Tanzania Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa FX Reserves (December), Vehicle Sales (December)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (December)

Tuesday, January 10, 2023: 

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the UN’s peacekeeping efforts in West Africa and the Sahel.

·       The UN’s resolution allowing cross-border aid to Syria will expire.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican President Andrés Manuel López (“AMLO”) will host President Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for a North American Leaders Summit in Mexico City.   There is a large agenda of issues they will discuss, ranging from regional trade concerns to climate issues to mass migration challenges.

·       Bolivia is bracing for nationwide protests (including roadblocks of major arteries) in response to the arrest of the opposition leader of the Santa Cruz region, Governor Luis Fernando Camacho, on terrorism charges.  Camacho has been highly critical of the left-wing government and has been calling on the government to move up census data that would likely give Santa Cruz more political representation and tax revenue.

·       Both the US Senate and the US House of Representatives are in session this week.   The House, now that it is formally convened and all members were sworn in with Representative Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) being elected Speaker of the House, will choose committee chairs and vote on key organizational issues haggled over during the Speaker election. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates on a panel entitled “Central Bank Independence and the Mandate – Evolving Views” at the Sveriges Riksbank International Symposium on Central Bank Independence, Stockholm, Sweden.

·       Cleveland Fed officials will host a 2023 Economic Outlook webinar 

·       US Redbook (January 7), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (January), Wholesale Inventories (November)

·       Brazil Inflation (December)

·       El Salvador Inflation (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nepal’s new Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal will likely face a no-confidence vote in parliament today.

·       Kosrae (an island located in the Federated States in Micronesia) celebrates Constitution Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (November)

·       Japan Household Spending (November), CPI (December)

·       Philippines Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (November), FDI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursala von der Leyen, together with NATO Secretary-General  Jens Stoltenberg, and Charles Michel, President of the European Council, signs the third Joint Declaration on NATO-EU Cooperation in Brussels.

·       France will begin considering a Pension Reform Bill.  A previous effort led by President Emmanuel Macron to reform the system was halted in 2020 after widespread protests and transport strikes in opposition to the effort paralyzed the country.

·       The UK will see the first orbital launch from mainland Britain.  It will be launched from Cornwall Airport Newquay via Virgin Orbit using a repurposed Boeing 747. The 747 will launch a rocket carrying nine satellites into space.

·       IN the UK, UK, members of the Public and Commercial Services Union at the Rural Payments Agency and DVLA in Swansea are to strike in an ongoing dispute over pay, pensions, job security, and redundancy terms.

·       Also in the UK, the teaching union NASUWT closes a strike ballot among members working in schools and sixth-form colleges in England and Wales, recommending that they vote for a walkout over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Norman Baily moderates a panel entitled (“central bank independence and new risks: Climate” at the Sveriges Riksbank International Symposium on Central Bank Independence, Stockholm, Sweden.  Also on the panel will be the Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.

·       UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (December)

·       France Industrial Production (November)

·       Spain Industrial Production (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (November)

·       Egypt Inflation (December)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (November), Unemployment (November), Participation Rate (November)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (November)

·       Rwanda Inflation (December)

Wednesday, January 11, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council holds a briefing and consultations on Colombia.

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on Cyprus.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US and Japanese defense officials will hold talks on military assistance to Japan in advance of Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio meeting with President Biden on Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US MBA Mortgage Market Index (January)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (November)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (November)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (November)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Costa Rica Inflation (December)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asian Financial Forum will be held in Hong Kong, marking one of the first major corporate events held in the city since lifting COVID restrictions.  A number of current and former government officials and financial services CEOs will be in attendance.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Unemployment (December)

·       Japan FX Reserves (December), Coincident Index (November), Leading Economic Index (November)

·       Australia CPI (November), Retail Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK is bracing for a strike by ambulance staff who are members of the GMB union in their ongoing dispute over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Italy Retails (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Current Account (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Burkina Faso Republic Day, a national holiday celebrating the nation’s independence in 1958.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, January 12, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the promotion and strengthening of the rule of law in the maintenance of international peace and security: the Rule of Law among Nations. UN Secretary-General  António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will speak to the Virginia Bankers Association and Virginia Chamber of Commerce at their financial forecast virtual event.

·       St. Louis Fed President James Bullard joins the Wisconsin Bankers Association's Midwest Economic Forecast Forum.

·       US Inflation (December), Initial Jobless Claims (January 7), CPI (December), Monthly Budget Statement (December)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (January)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (December)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (December)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will virtually host the “Voice of the Global South Summit.”   More than 120 developing countries are expected to attend.  India is now the chair of the G20, and this is part of Modi’s broader attempt to best represent the issues and concerns of smaller nations at the G20 Summit in September in New Delhi, India.

·       In Japan, Knasai Electric Power Company is scheduled to restart commercial operations of the #3 reactor at the Oi nuclear plant.  The #3 reactor was taken offline in September 2013, restarted in 2018, and then taken offline again for a series of upgrades.

·       Thailand celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation (December), PPI (December)

·       Japan Current Account (November), Banking Lending (December), Eco Watchers Survey (December), Eco Watchers Outlook (December)

·       India Manufacturing Production (November), Industrial Production (November), Inflation Rate (December),  M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Australia Building Permits (November), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Intelligence will hold a hearing to review a draft report on how the EU could develop legislation better blocking foreign interference in the EU’s democratic processes.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen leads a European Commission visit to Sweden to discuss the country’s priorities during its bloc presidency, which began this month.

·       In the UK, further rail strikes over pay, this time by members of the TSSA union at Rail for London Infrastructure, operator of London’s new Elizabeth Line service.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Current Account (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Retail Sales (November), FX Reserves (January 6)

·       Israel Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Namibia Inflation (December)

·       Ghana Inflation (December)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate

Friday, January 13, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a closed-door meeting on the situation in Afghanistan, specifically the Taliban’s ban on female humanitarian aid workers.

·       The UN Security Council will meet to discuss peace and security issues in Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden will host Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio at the White House.  The two leaders are expected to discuss regional security issues, specifically how to bolster Japan’s missile defense systems in the face of more aggressive North Korean missile tests and more aggressive Chinese military drills in the region.  Kishida announced last month Japan will increase its national security budget to 2 percent of GDP by 2027 – putting it on par with NATO spending targets. Kishida may call snap elections before the scheduled 2025 elections as a result of this defense spending increase, as new tax increases are set to be implemented in 2024 to cover a shortfall of $7 billion for the defense budget.  Kishida is also expected to ask Biden to visit Nagasaki during the G7 Summit in May, which would be the first time a US President has visited the Japanese city, which was hit by a US atomic bomb in 1945.

·       In New York, the Trump Organization will be sentenced following a conviction in December for tax fraud.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will give the opening remarks at the bank's sixth annual Regional Economic Conditions Conference.

·       St. Louis Fed officials will hold a 2023 outlook discussion.

·       US Export Prices (December), Import Prices (December), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (January), Michigan Consumer Expectations (January), Michigan Current Conditions (January), Michigan Inflation Expectations (January)

·       Brazil IBC-Br Economic Activity (November)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (November)

·       Chile Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

·       Argentina Interest Rate Decision

·       Uruguay Unemployment (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India will host the Auto Expo 2023, one of the world’s largest motor shows.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (December), Outstanding Loan Growth (December), Total Social Financing (December), M2 Money Supply (December)

·       India FX Reserves (January), Deposit Growth (December), Bank Loan Growth (December), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

·       South Korea Export Prices (December), Import Prices (December), Interest Rate Decision

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (December), FX Reserves (December)

·       Australia Home Loans (November), Investment Lending for Homes (November)

·       Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate (Q3), PPI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Czech Republic holds presidential elections (through Saturday).

·       In the UK, the National Education Union closes a strike ballot over pay among about 300,000 teachers and support staff in England and Wales.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (November), Balance of Trade (November)

·       Germany Full-Year GDP Growth (2022)

·       Italy Industrial Production (November)

·       UK GDP (November), Balance of Trade (November), Construction Output (November), Manufacturing Production (November), Goods Trade Balance (November), Industrial Production (November), Manufacturing Production (November), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (December)

·       France Inflation (December)

·       Spain CPI (December), Inflation Rate (December)

·       Poland Industrial Production (November), Inflation Rate (December), Balance of Trade (November), Current Account (November)

·       Hungary CPI (December),  Inflation (December), Industrial Production (November)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (December), FX Reserves (December), Inflation Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (December)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Botswana Inflation (December) 

Saturday, January 14, 2023:

Global

· the Orthodox Church observes New Year.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       A delegation of US trade officials will travel to Taipei, Taiwan, for the first formal round of talks on a proposed US-Taiwan trade agreement.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December), FDI (December)

·       Taiwan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Kazakhstan holds Senate elections.

·       Russian New Year (“Novy God”) is celebrated in Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Tunisia celebrates its Revolutionary Anniversary, marking the December 2010 start of a movement to depose long-time ruler Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.  The uprising started with Mohamed Bouazizi, a vegetable seller, setting himself on fire in protest over police harassment.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 15, 2023:

Global

·       The World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru GDP (November), Unemployment (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China House Price Index (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (December), Wholesale Prices (December)

·       Israel Inflation (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

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