The Global Week Ahead: August 14-21, 2022
The week ahead should be relatively quiet aside from the ongoing bloody grind of Russia’s war on Ukraine. China has largely finished its military exercises around Taiwan, the US Congress has gone on a month-long holiday, and most of Europe is also on holiday, albeit under a scorching sun. The real action this week will be on the economic front as markets await major economic reports globally. Both the US and China report retail sales and industrial production data. Japan reports inflation figures. And we will see the Federal Reserve Board release minutes from the last meeting, giving us a little better insight into their thinking about future rate rises. Here is what we are watching around the world this week:
Sunday, 14 August 2022:
Global
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing to report.
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
China and Thailand begin joint Air Force exercise “Falcon Strike 2022”
Pakistan celebrates Independence Day.
Economic Reports/Events –
(July), retail sales (July), unemployment rate (July)
Japan GDP (Q2), private consumption (Q2), capital expenditure (Q2)
Thailand GDP (Q2)
Indonesia balance of trade/exports/imports (July)
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing to report.
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing to report.
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events
Nothing to report.
Monday, 15 August 2022:
Global
The UN Security Council’s Panel of Experts is scheduled to release its final report on sanctions on Mali. The sanctions – brought by the UN, US, the EU, and a number of African nations - were put in place following a coup in January by the ruling junta to avoid elections. The junta has agreed to elections in 2024 that will be monitored by the UN and Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
US and Turkish officials meet in Washington to discuss the sale of modernization kits for F-16 fighter jets for Turkey.
The one-year anniversary of the Taliban entering Kabul and the former Afghan government collapsing.
Peru’s government to define the 2022-2023 legislative agenda.
The US Congress is in recess until September.
President Biden is on holiday with his family.
LA Tech Week begins in Los Angeles, California and will feature remarks by many of the leading US tech CEOs.
Economic Reports/Events –
US New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (August), NAHB Housing Market Index (August)
Canada new motor vehicle sales (June), manufacturing sales (June), wholesale sales (June)
Brazil inflation rate (July), Central Bank Focus Market readout, IBC-BR economic activity (June)
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Japan’s Prime Minister Fumino Kishada is expected to present to the Japanese Diet a stimulus package to address the country’s rising food and energy costs.
2022 Business Advantage Papua New Guinea Investment Conference held in Brisbane, Australia.
APEC holds 3rd Senior Officials Meeting (SOM#) and related meetings.
India celebrates its 75th Independence Day ending British rule.
Japan marks the 77th anniversary of its surrender to Allied Forces, ending World War II in the Pacific.
South Korea celebrates Liberation Day and large-scale demonstrations are expected in Seoul.
Economic Reports/Events –
China Peoples Bank of China sets MLF rate, retail sales (July) house price index (July)
Japan industrialized production (June), capacity utilization (June)
Australia central bank minutes
Philippines overseas remittances (June)
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
The Leaders of Finland, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden will hold a Nordic Council meeting in Oslo, Sweden.
The self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic expected to begin trials of British, Swedish, and Croatian citizens captured fighting on behalf of Ukraine.
UK barristers are likely to strike over legal aid funding.
UK union members at Liverpool’s container ports expected to strike over pay and work conditions.
Assumption Day (a Roman Catholic Feast Day) and a public holiday in France, Italy, and Spain.
Economic Reports/Events –
Germany wholesale prices (July)
Russia expected to convert depositary receipts of Russian companies on foreign exchanges into shares on the Russian Stock Exchange.
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Iran faces a deadline to respond to an EU proposal for reviving the 2015 nuclear accords.
Economic Reports/Events –
Saudi Arabia inflation rate (July)
Turkey budget balance (July), auto production (July)
Israel CPIs (July)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nigeria inflation report (July)
Botswana inflation report (July)
Tuesday, 16 August 2022:
Global
Nothing significant to report
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Wyoming and Alaska hold primary elections (Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) faces a tough primary challenge). And Alaska holds a special election to fill the seat left open by the death of Representative Don Young (R-AK)
Brazil’s political candidates are allowed starting today to run television and internet campaign ads.
Costa Rica and Ecuador to begin negotiations on a free trade deal.
Caribbean leaders will gather in the Bahamas to discuss the regions approach to the COP27 Climate Talks in Egypt being held in November.
Elvis Presley died 45 years ago this day.
Economic Reports/Events –
US housing starts (July), building permits (July), industrial production (July), manufacturing production (July), Redbook (August), capacity utilization (July)
Canada housing starts (July), inflation rate (July), CPIs (July)
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Economic Reports/Events –
Japan Tertiary Industry Index (June), Reuters Tankan Index (July), machinery orders (June)
India WPI food/fuel/manufacturing/inflation (July), balance of trade/imports/exports (July)
Australia wage prices (Q2), Westpac Leading Index (July), wage price index (Q2)
Indonesia property price index (Q2)
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
The Nordic Council (see above/yesterday) will meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Oslo, Sweden.
Economic Reports/Events –
Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)
UK unemployment rate (June), claimant count change (July), average earnings (June), labour productivity (Q2)
Czech Republic PPIs (July)
Poland inflation figures (July)
Romania’s central bank minutes (July0
Eurozone balance of trade (June), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Israel GDP (Q2)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Seychelles interest rate decision
South Africa non-farm payrolls, South African Reserve Bank quarterly bulletin for Q1
Wednesday, 17 August 2022:
Global
Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Former Vice President Mike Pence speaks in New Hampshire at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics “Politics & Eggs” event – a prelude to a likely presidential run.
Economic Reports/Events –
US Federal Reserve Board minutes, 30-year mortgage rate (August), retail sales (July), business inventories (June)
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Indonesia celebrates Independence Day.
Economic Reports/Events –
Japan balance of trade/exports/imports (July), machinery orders (July)
Australia unemployment rate (July), participation rate (July)
Singapore export (July), NODX (July)
Hong Kong unemployment rate (July)
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg meets with Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti to discuss rising tensions with Serbia. He then meets with Serbian President Alexandr Vucic tomorrow (Thursday).
Economic Reports/Events –
UK inflation rate (July), retail price index (July), PPIs (July)
Eurozone employment change, GDP growth rate (Q2)
Russia PPIs (July)
Hungary GDP (Q2)
Poland GDP (Q2)
Romania GDP (Q2)
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing to report.
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
42nd Southern African Development Community Summit of the Heads of State and Government in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo
Guinea’s opposition political coalition to launch country-wide protests against the ruling military junta.
Kenyan deadline to announce recent presidential election results.
Economic Reports/Events –
South Africa retail sales (June)
Zambia central bank interest rate decision
Namibia central bank interest rate decision
Ghana PPIs (July)
Thursday, 18 August 2022:
Global
Nothing significant to report
Americas
Political/Social Events –
NASA’s Artimis 1 Moon Mission rocket will be rolled into place for lift-off at Kennedy Space Center in Florida.
Economic Reports/Events –
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index/Fed CAPEX Index (August), initial jobless claims (August), existing home sales (July), CB Leading index (July), 30-year TIPS Auction
Canada PPIs (July)
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Indonesia current account (Q2), motorbike sales (July)
Philippines central bank meeting
Sri Lanka central bank meeting
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report
Economic Reports/Events –
Spain balance of trade (June)
Eurozone CPIs (July), inflation rate (July), construction output (June)
Norway central bank interest rate decision.
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Turkey central bank interest rate decision, FX reserves (August)
Egypt merchandise trade balance (June)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
South Africa building permits (June)
Friday, 19 August 2022:
Global
Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
US Trade Representative’s deadline to submit a request to continue August 23, 2018 China section 301 tariff action.
The US Energy Association will hold a briefing on nuclear power and how they see the approximately $30 billion in funding being provided by the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act will help rebuild the US’ nuclear power industry.
Brazil’s Petrobas shareholders’ meeting to evaluate candidates for the board of directors.
Economic Reports/Events –
Canada retail sales (June)
Mexico retail sales (June)
Argentina's leading indicator (July)
Argentina and the Inter-American Development Bank to sign an agreement on an $80 million loan to small- to medium-sized enterprises.
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Japan inflation rate (July)
Indonesia loan growth (July)
India FX reserves (August)
Malaysia exports/imports/balance of trade (July)
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
Montenegro’s Parliament is expected to hold a no-confidence vote against the minority government after it signed a an agreement with the Serbia Orthodox Church – a measure strongly opposed by human rights groups and pro-western Montenegran political parties.
The UK is bracing for 10,000 rail and bus drivers to go on strike, mostly in the London area.
Economic Reports/Events –
UK retail sales (July), public sector net borrowing (July)
Eurozone current account (June)
Poland gross wages (July), industrial production (July)
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report
Economic Reports/Events –
South Africa Bloomberg monthly economic survey
Nigeria PSCE (July), M2 money supply (July)
Saturday, 20 August 2022:
Global
Nothing significant to report
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report
Economic Reports/Events –
Argentina leading indicator (July)
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
Hungary celebrates State Foundation Day, a public holiday.
The UK braces for yet more strikes from rail and transportation workers over pay and work conditions.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report
Economic Reports/Events –
Israel forward average CPI forecasts (July)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report
Sunday, 21 August 2022:
Global
Nothing significant to report
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Hawaii celebrates Statehood Day, making it the 50th state of the union in 1959.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report
Economic Reports/Events –
China loan prime rate (1Y & 5Y)
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz begins a state visit to Canada.
The UK will see a one-day strke by container port workers at Felixstowe.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report