The Geopolitical Week Ahead: August 28 - September 4

This coming week, the war in Ukraine continues to dominate the geopolitical outlook. EU foreign and defense ministers will meet in Prague on Monday and Tuesday to discuss providing further military and economic aid to Ukraine and whether to put forth a blanket ban Russian tourist visas.  Also, this week, Russia will hold  “Vostok-2022,” a massive joint military exercise in Siberia. China, India, Belarus, Mongolia, and Tajikistan will participate. And this will be the first all three branches of China’s military will participate in the annual exercise. Russia will also shut down Nord Stream 1 for unexpected and unscheduled maintenance, further exacerbating the growing EU energy crisis.

Also this week, a flood of important economic data will hit the global markets. Leading the way will Q2 GDP updates for many leading economies (India, South Korea, Italy, and Canada), giving us a greater sense of the risk of a global recession. In the US, in the wake of Fed Chair Jay Powell’s tough-love speech in Jackson Hole this past Friday, the non-farming payroll figures and factory orders will be a key focus. In Europe, markets are focused on the August and July PPIs of several leading EU economies, particularly Q2 GDP numbers for Germany, Poland, and Italy. 

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, 28 August 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil holds its first televised presidential debate between incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and his opponent, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia retail sales (July)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (August), Industrial Production (August), Inflation (August), Retail Sales (August).

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader Bassam al-Saadi’s detention in an Israeli prison is scheduled to end and a court hearing will be held over his fate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 supply (July), private banking lending (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, 29 August 2022:

Global

·       The G-20 Urban Mayoral Summit is being held in Jakarta, Indonesia.

·       The United Nations begins Africa Climate Week in Gabon n advance of the COP27 meeting in Egypt in November.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress remains in recess until mid-September (House of Representatives returns September 13th; the Senate returns September 6th); Much of Washington DC is still on vacation.

·       NASA to launch the Artemis I Lunar Exploration Rocket to the Moon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard to give a prerecorded speech at the FedNow Early Adopter Workshop in Illinois.

·       Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (August)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Bank Lending (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to approve $1.2 billion of its Extended Fund Facility to help strengthen the country’s financial stability.

·       Japan leading economic index (June), coincident index (June), unemployment rate (July)

·       Australia building permits (July), private house approvals (July)

·       Hong Kong monthly property data (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       EU defense ministers hold informal meetings (through August 30) to discuss the War in Ukraine and how to better coordinate military support for Ukraine.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will give a speech in Prague, the Czech Republic outlining Germany’s vision for the future of the EU bloc.

·       Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morowiecki to visit Paris to meet with French President Macron to discuss the Ukraine War and energy issues.

·       Norway hosts the Offshore Norther Seas Oil and Gas Conference.

·       The UK Summer Bank Holiday.  Also, today will be the end of an eight-day strike by 1,900 port work workers end a strike at Felixstowe, the UK’s major port.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey balance of trade (July), economic confidence index (August)

·       Iran inflation rate (August)

·       Qatar balance of trade (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, 30 August 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former President Barrack Obama will speak at the Democratic Redistricting Committee fundraiser in Martha’s Vineyard.

·       The one-year anniversary of the US’ chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Fed President John Williams will speak at a Wall Street Journal Live (online) event.

·       US Redbook (August), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (June), JOLTs Job Opening (July), CB Consumer Confidence (August), Dallas Fed Services Index (August),

·       Canada Current Account (Q2)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (July), unemployment rate (July)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Thai and Laos leaders to meet to discuss linking the China-Laos railway with Thailand’s Nong Khai province to expand the pan-Asian railway project.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (August), NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Japan Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July), Manufacturing Production (July), Construction Output (July)

·       Australia Construction Work Done (Q2), Private Sector Credit (July)

·       Philippines PPIs (July), Retail Sales (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia holds its annual joint military exercise – “Vostok-2022” (through September 5th). The exercise will be held in Russia’s Eastern Military Districts (Siberian region).  China will participate as will India, Belarus, Mongolia, and Tajikistan.  This is the first time all three branches of China’s military (Air Force, Navy, and Army) have participated in a war game with Russia.

·       EU Foreign Ministers to hold informal meetings to discuss the War in Ukraine. Among the key issues they will discuss is a proposal to place a blanket ban in Russian tourist visas.

·       Denmark hosts the Baltic Security Summit in Bornholm.

·       The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan will meet in Brussels to further mediate the territorial dispute between the two countries.

·       The EU Parliament Committee looking into the use of Pegasus and equivalent surveillance spyware meets in Brussels.  This meeting comes in the wake of the recently revealed Greek wiretap scandal involving Nikos Androulakis, Member of the European Parliament and President of Greece’s Movement for Change party and Panhellenic Socialist Movement. 

·       Switzerland hosts 10th meeting of State Parties to the UN Convention on Cluster Munitions in Geneva.

·       The UK will see 40,000 BT and Openreach members of the Communications Workers Union go on a 48-hour strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany inflation rate (August), import prices (July)

·       Spain inflation rate (August), retail sales (July)

·       Italy industrial sales (June)

·       UK BoE Consumer Credit (July), Mortgage Approvals (July), Net Lending to Individuals (July)

·       Eurozone Economic Sentiment (August), Industrial Sentiment (August), Selling Price Expectations (August), Service Sentiment (August), Consumer

Confidence (August), Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)

·       Hungary interest rate decision

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey celebrates Victory Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenya will swear in President-Elect William Ruto.  However, the Kenyan Supreme Court is considering a petition by the opposition party challenging the election results (see below)

·       Kenya’s Supreme Court holds a pre-trial conference on a petition challenging the outcome of the recent presidential elections.  

·       Economic Reports/Events –

·      South Africa M3 money supply (July), Private Sector Credit (July)

Wednesday, 31 August 2022:

Global

·       The G-20 Environmental and Climate Ministerial meeting is held in Bali, Indonesia.

·       United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet to step down before her office publishes a report on human rights abuses in the Xinjiang Province in China.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Trinidad and Tobago celebrate Independence Day.

·       US Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is expected to join UK Communications Workers who are on strike in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester to speak at the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce.

·       The Dallas Federal Reserve will introduce its new president, Lorie Logan, at a virtual event where she will give remarks (5 p.m.)

·       US MBA 30-year mortgage rate (August), ADP Employment Change (August), Chicago PMI (August)

·       Canada GDP Growth (Q2 & June)

·       Brazil Nominal Budget Balance (July)

·       Colombia Unemployment rate (July)

·       Chile industrial production (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan to appear in court to face charges of contempt following a weekend speech in which he reportedly threatened police officers and a magistrate.

·       Malaysia celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Japan Consumer Confidence (August), Housing Starts (July), Construction Orders (July), Capital Spending (Q2), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       India GDP Growth Rate (Q2), Infrastructure Output (July),  Government Budget Value (July)

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate (Q2), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (August), S&P Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August), Ai Group Manufacturing Index (August), Home Loans (July), Plant Machinery Capital Expenditures (Q2) , Private Capital Expenditures (Q2), Building Capital Expenditures (Q2)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia’s Nord Stream 1 pipeline expected to be shut down for unscheduled maintenance.

·       US Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is expected to join UK Communications Workers who are on strike in London.

·       The final Conservative Party hustings event will take place before Tory’s vote Monday on who will be the next Prime Minister.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany unemployment rate (August)

·       France inflation rate (August), GDP growth rate (Q2), Household consumption (July), PPIs (July)
Spain unemployment rate (August), Current Account (June)

·       Eurozone Inflation Rate (August), CPI Flash (August)

·       Italy Inflation rate (August), PPIs (July)

·       Russia GDP (July), M2 Money Supply (July), Unemployment Rate (July) Real Wage Growth (June)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey GDP Growth (Q2)

·       Israel Manufacturing PMIs (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal’s Prime Minister Costa is scheduled to visit Mozambique to attend the 5th Portugal-Mozambique Summit to further strengthen bilateral political and trade ties.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Balance of Trade (July)

·       Kenya inflation figures (August)

·       Uganda inflation figures (August)

·       Namibia money supply (July)

Thursday, 1 September 2022:

Global

·       G-20 Digital Ministers meeting to be held in Bali, Indonesia.

·       The World Health Organization (WHO) holds its Health20 Summit in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       France assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador expected to submit legislation to the Mexican Congress to bring the National Guard under military control

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August), S&P Manufacturing New Orders (August),  ISM Manufacturing PMI/New Orders/Manufacturing Employment figures (August), Construction Spending (July), Challenger Jobs Cuts (August), Initial Jobless Claims (August), Unit Labor Costs (Q2), Nonfarm Productivity (Q2)

·       Brazil GDP Growth Rate (Q2), Balance of Trade (August)

·       Canada Building Permits (July)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (August), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Peru inflation rate (August)

·       Argentina tax revenue (August)

·       Colombia current account balance (Q2)

·       Chile economic activity (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       China will allow Shanghai to reopen all schools after months of closures due to COVID.

·       Vietnam to celebrate National Day.  This will be a four-day national holiday.

·       Uzbekistan celebrates National Day holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (August)

·       Australia Commodity Prices (August)

·       Indonesia Inflation Rate (August), Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Pakistan inflation rate (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU hosts the 6th Global Conference on Criminal Finances and Cryptocurrencies at the Hague, Belgium.

·       European Parliament holds a hearing on EU-Indo-Pacific trade relations.

·       Finland begins limiting Russian tourist visas.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Retail Sales (July), S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs (August)

·       France S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs (August)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs (August), Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       UK Nationwide Housing Prices (August), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs (August), Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Italy GDP Growth (Q2), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August), Unemployment Rate (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Nigeria’s PMIs (August)

Friday, 2 September  2022:

Global

·       G-20 Energy Transitions Ministerial Meeting in Bali, Indonesia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Non-Farm Payrolls (August), Unemployment Rate (August) Average Hourly Earnings (August), Factory Orders (August), Participation Rate (August)

·       Canada Labor Productivity (Q2)

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (August), Industrial Production (July)

·       Mexico FX reserves (July)

·       Argentina Tax Revenues (August)

·       Colombia exports (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       India will formally launch its first domestically-produced aircraft carrier, the INS Vikrant.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (August), FX reserves (July)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (July), SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Philippines inflation rate (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Informal Meeting of Ministers Responsible for Cohesion Policy to be held in Prague, Czech Republic.

·       European Parliament President Roberta Metsola visits Portugal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany exports/imports/balance of trade (July), S&P Global Composite PMI (August)

·       France Budget Balance (July), Balance of Trade (July)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (August)

·       Eurozone PPIs (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Turkey Inflation Rate (August), PPIs (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, 3 September 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former President Donald Trump to campaign in Pennsylvania for Senate candidate Mehmet Oz and gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       France S&P Global Services  PMI (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Qatar celebrates National Day holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, 4 September 2022:

Global

·       The G-20 T20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile holds a referendum on its newly crafted Constitution.  Current polls suggest it will be rejected by voters.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. visits Indonesia (through September 6) to discuss regional security issues including joint counterterrorism cooperation.  Marcos goes on to visit Singapore on September 6-7.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany hosts the International Metropolis Conference in Berlin.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.