The Geopolitical Week Ahead: September 4 - 11, 2022:

This coming week, Russia – despite its ongoing invasion of Ukraine - hosts the 7th Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok. More than 46 countries are scheduled to attend to discuss trade and development in the Far East and Arctic, and Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to address the Forum. The Forum takes place as the United Nations plans to meet to discuss the dire situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine.  The UN sent inspectors there last week to assess damage to the facility due to Russian shelling.

We will also see this week North Korea hold an extraordinary meeting of the Supreme People’s Assembly to rubber stamp new rural development laws and unspecified “organizational changes.”  North Korea has reportedly been decimated by COVID, and its economy is in worse shape than it has been in decades.  Also this week, OPEC+ will meet to discuss oil production increases.

On the economic front, as we saw last week, there will be another flood of important economic data globally, with key PMI report from the US, various EU nations, and Asian nations along with other data which will give a greater indication of the size and speed of inflation globally.  In particular this week, markets will be watching the European Central Bank on Thursday for an expected sizeable interest rate increase. 

Additionally, the three top Federal Reserve Board officials will be giving speeches this week - Chair Jay Powell, Vice Chair for Monetary Policy Lael Brainard, and Vice Chair for Bank Supervision, Michael Barr.  Barr’s speech, his inaugural since being confirmed to the Fed, will likely indicate how the Fed and other Biden-appointed financial regulators see bank and other financial institution mergers going forward.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, September 4, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile holds a vote on the newly drafted Constitution.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to arrive in Indonesia to meet with Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and sign a five-year plan of action to enhance bilateral cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Services and Composite PMIs (August)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI/Composite PMI (August)

·       South Korea FX Reserves (August)

·       Australia Ai Group Construction Index (August), S&P Global Services PMI (August), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (August), Retail Sales ((July), Business Inventories (Q2)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Vietnam IS&P Global PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 5, 2022:

Global

·       OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting in Vienna, Austria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US celebrates Labor Day (a national holiday, markets are closed)

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (August)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Colombia  PPI (August), Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to begin four-day visit to India.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (July)

·       India S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs (August)

·       Australia Current Account (Q2)

·       Thailand Core Inflation Rate (August)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (July)

·       Taiwan FX Reserves (August)

·       Philippine Inflation Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK’s governing Conservative Party will announce the winner of its leadership contest who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK.

·       The Eastern Economic Forum to be held in Vladivostok, Russia (through September 8). More than 46 countries are expected to attend to discuss development issues for the Far East and Russia.

·       Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal to meet with EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell at session of EU-Ukraine Association Council. 

·       UK’s criminal barristers expected to begin an indefinite strike over fee levels for legal aid work.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (August)

·       UK S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (August), BRC Retail Sales Monitor (August)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (August), Retail Sales (August)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs (August)

·       Spain S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (August)

·       Italy S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (August)

·       France S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs (August), Retail Sales (August)

·       Poland Retail Sales (July)

·       Sweden Services PMI (August)

·       Switzerland GDP Growth Rate (Q2)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon’s parliament is expected to decide the country’s next president who will serve a six-year term.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Saudi Arabia S&P Global PMI (August)

·       UAE S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (August), PPIs (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenyan Supreme Court to give its ruling in the challenge to the country’s presidential-election result.

·       Africa Adaptation Summit to be held in Rotterdam, the Netherlands to discuss climate issues in advance of the COP27 meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Uganda PMI (August))

·       Kenya PMI (August)

·       Zambia PMI (August))

·       Ghana PMI (August))

·       Mozambique PMI (August))

Tuesday, September 6, 2022:

Global

·       U.N. Security Council may meet per Russia's request to discuss the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Senate is scheduled to reconvene after August recess; the US House of Representatives remains out of session until September 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs (August), ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (August), ISM non-Manufacturing Employment (August), ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (August), ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (August), LMI Logistics Managers Index

·       Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to arrive in Singapore to meet with Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and sign bilateral counterterrorism and data privacy agreements.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Japan FX Reserves (August)

·       Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision and Chart Pack, GDP Growth Rate (Q2),

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (August), Wholesale Prices (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU informal meeting of Health Ministers (through September 7)

·       EU-Georgia Association Council meeting in Brussels.

·       The UK’s Booker Prize shortlist for the best book is announced.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The annual meeting of the Bruegel Institution begins.  The keynote speaker is IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

·       Germany Factory Orders (July), S&P Global Construction PMIs (August)

·       Italy S&P Global Construction PMIs (August)

·       France S&P Global Construction PMIs (August)

·       Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMIs (August)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (August)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Swaziland celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Consumer Confidence (Q3), GDP Growth Rate (Q2)

Wednesday, September 7, 2022:

Global

·       G-20 Development Ministerial meeting to be held in Belitung, Indonesia.

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing and consultation on the security situation in Somalia in the morning and a briefing on the war in Ukraine in the afternoon.

·       The UN General Assembly holds its 99th Plenary meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil marks 200 years of independence from Portugal.  President Jair Bolsonaro is calling for supporters to join him at a military parade in Rio de Janeiro to celebrate.

·       Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Fed Vice Chair for Monetary Policy  Lael Brainard Speech to speak at the Clearing House and Bank Policy Institute Annual Conference in New York; Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michal Barr to speak at the Brookings Institution (his first speech as Vice Chair),  Fed Beige Book ; Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (July), Redbook (September),  MBA Mortgage Refinance Index /Purchase Index/Mortgage Application/30-Year Mortgage Rate (September), Total Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Canada Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Ivey PMI (August)

·       Mexico Auto Exports and Auto Production (August)

·       Chile Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Envoys from Japan, South Korea, and the United States to discuss the security situation in North Korea in Tokyo, Japan.

·       North Korea’s Supreme People’s Assembly to meet to discuss rural development law changes as well as possible “organizational changes.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FX Reserves (August)

·       Japan Coincident Index (July), Leading Economic Index (July), GDP Growth Rate (Q2), Current Account (July)

·       Australia Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (July), RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Indonesia FX Reserves (August)

·       Philippines FX Reserves (August), Unemployment Rate (July), Industrial Production (July)

·       Taiwan Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Hong Kong FX Reserves (August)

·       Singapore FX Reserves (August)

·       Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Dutch government will publish a report from advisors on prospects for building two new nuclear power reactors as part of the country’s energy transition.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Industrial Production (July)

·       France FX Reserves (August)

·       Italy Retail Sales (July)

·       Eurozone GDP Growth (est. Q3), Employment Change (Q2)

·       Switzerland FX Reserves (August)

·       Sweden Construction Output (July), Household Consumption (July), Industrial Production (July)

·       Poland FX Reserves (August), Central Bank to meet on interest rate hike.

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (August), FX Reserves (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel FX Reserves (August)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa FX Reserve (August)

·       Nigeria Balance of Trade (May and June)

·       Mauritius FX reserves (August)

·       Seychelles inflation (August)

Thursday, September 8, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council holds consultations on the situation in Yemen.

·       The OECD releases its global employment outlook.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell's speech at the Cato Institute’s 40th Annual Monetary Conference (via video); Initial Jobless Claims (Sept 3), Continuing Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Sept 3), Consumer Credit Change (July)

· Chile's core Inflation Rate (August)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India's Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar to visit Japan for bilateral defense talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (August), PPI (August)

·       Japan Eco Watchers Survey and Outlook Reports (August)

·       Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (July)

·       Philippines Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukraine Defense Contact Group to meet at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. 

·       UK’s Royal Mail workers begin two days of strikes over pay disputes.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision, ECB Press Conference

·       France Non-Farm Payrolls (Q2), Private Non-Farm Payrolls (Q2), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports/Current Accounts (August)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt FX Reserves (August)

·       Israel Business Confidence (August), Consumer Confidence (August), Budget Balance (August), Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Turkey FX Reserves (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account (Q2), SACCI Business Confidence (August), Manufacturing Production (July)

·       Tanzania Inflation (August)

·       Mauritius inflation (August) 

Friday, September 9, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speech at the Vienna Macroeconomics Workshop in Wien, Austria; Wholesale Inventories (July)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (August), Capacity Utilization (Q2)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (July)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (August),  Car Production (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to visit Pakistan amid severe floods.

·       Tajikistan celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia FX Reserves (September)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (August)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (July), Industrial Production (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU’s Extraordinary Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council meet to discuss emergency measures to mitigate high energy prices and likely scenarios and preparations for the coming winter.

·       Eurogroup Meeting to discuss various topics including Central Bank currencies and an update on the digital euro project.

·       EU Informal meeting of Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers in Prague, Czech Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       France Industrial Production (July)

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation (August), Industrial Production (August)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate (Q2), Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, September 10, 2022:

Global

·       Monaco hosts the Les rendez-Vous de Setembre Conference, the largest insurance and re-insurance industry in the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China celebrates the Moon Festival, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Vehicle Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moscow holds municipal elections (through September 11).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 11, 2022:

Global

·       The 21st anniversary of the terror attacks on New York and Washington DC.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Okinawa gubernatorial elections held.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Sweden holds general elections.

·       Spain’s Catalonia region celebrates National Day, coinciding with pro-independence demonstrations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid makes a state visit to Germany and meets with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank Steinmeier in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.