The Global Week Ahead: September 11 - 18, 2022

This week, we will be watching closely the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Forum being held in Uzbekistan.  It is expected that Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi will meet on the sidelines.  Of note, this is the first overseas trip Xi has taken in three years.  Putin, who is watching a significant portion of the Russian Army being routed in Ukraine now, will likely press attending countries to support Russia economically and perhaps in other ways.  Also, this week, the UK, as it prepares for next Monday’s funeral of Queen Elizabeth, faces a deadline on the EU’s complaint over trade controls between Great Britain and Northern Ireland (The Northern Ireland Protocol).

On the global economic and markets front, we will be watching the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing Tuesday, where a former senior Twitter executive turned whistleblower will testify.  Also, this week, we will see important inflation data from the US and UK, as well as significant property sector data from China.  Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, September 11, 2022:

Global

·       The 21st anniversary of the terror attacks on New York and Washington, DC, is marked globally.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Okinawa gubernatorial election to be held

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (June)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Sweden holds general elections.

·       Spain’s Catalonia region celebrates National Day, coinciding with pro-independence demonstrations.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Ireland Construction PMI (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid makes a state visit to Germany and meets with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank Steinmeier in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Kenyan President-elect William Ruto will be sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 12, 2022:

Global

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) meets through September 16. Heavy focus on Iran’s nuclear program, the IAEA’s recent mission to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant held by Russian military forces in Ukraine, and North Korea (which recently announced they would no longer abide by a “no first-strike” agreement.

·       The United Nations will hold a plenary meeting to close the 76th session.

·       The International Labor Organization (ILO) is expected to release its Global Estimates on Modern Slavery Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with Mexican Foreign Minister Ebrard in Monterrey, Mexico, as part of the US-Mexico High-Level Economic Dialogue.

·       The 74th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards is held in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)

·       Bank of Brazil Focus Market Readout

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       China’s Chairman of the National People’s Congress, Li Zhanshu, to visit Nepal to discuss mutual trade and security issues. This follows a visit to Moscow last week where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

·       India and China are scheduled to complete disengagement from the Gogra-Hot Springs area.  This is where Chinese and Indian soldiers engaged in violent clashes in 2020, where as many as 20 Indian troops were killed, and an unknown number of Chinese soldiers were killed.

·       Australia’s Quantas and Emirates Airlines ground handlers go on strike for 24 hours over pay.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Japan Machine Tools (August), BSI Large Manufacturing (Q3), PPI (August), Finance Ministry releases Business Outlook for July-September

·       India Industrial Production (July), Inflation Rate (August)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (July)

·       Thailand FX Reserves (August)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (September), NAB Business Confidence (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       The Annual Conference of the Trade Union Congress begins in Brighton.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Vice President Luis de Guidnos speech at the Foro Económico organized by El Norte de Castilla

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel speech at the 7th ECB Annual Research Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany Current Account (July)

·       UK GDP (July), Balance of Trade (July), Construction Output (July), Industrial Production (July), Manufacturing Production (July), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (August)

·       Italy Industrial Production (July)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (July), Current Account (July), Auto Production (August)

·       UAE Loan Growth (June & July), M3 Money Supply (June & July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (August)

Tuesday, September 13, 2022:

Global

·       The United Nations begins the 77th General Assembly.

·       OPEC Monthly Report

·       The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization is expected to release its report on “the future of food and agriculture.”

·       The VII Congress of World and Traditional Religions begins in Kazakhstan (through September 15). Pope Francis to attend.

·       The 26th World Investment Conference to be held in Geneva, Switzerland. 

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island hold primaries – the final primary contests in advance of the November mid-term elections.

·       The US of House of Representatives returns from their August recess. The Senate returned last week. In the coming week, the two chambers will focus on getting a government funding deal done to fund the government until at least December 16. 

·       The US Senate Judiciary Committee will hear testimony from a Twitter whistleblower, Peiter Zatko, that is likely to be highly impactful to the ongoing battle between Elon Musk and Twitter over his proposed acquisition of the company.

·       Bolivia’s President Luis Arce to inaugurate the Red and Green Lines of the new Cochabamba Mi Tren – Bolivia’s first metropolitan train system.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Core Inflation Rate (August), CPI (August), Redbook (September), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism ((September), NFIB Business Optimism Index (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nepal’s Foreign Secretary Bharat Raj Paudyal to visit India to discuss bilateral trade and investment issues.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (September), Machinery Orders (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       The European Parliament will discuss the latest developments in Ukraine and will vote later in the week on a €5 billion macro-financial loan to help Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul  Participates in a fireside chat and Q&A session at Barclays Global Financial Conference (online)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (August)

·       UK Claimant Count Change (August), Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (August)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (August)

·       Poland Balance of Trade/Current Account (July)

·       Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Saudi Arabia will host the 2nd Global Artificial Intelligence Summit in Riyadh.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Turkey Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       The UN Security Council holds a briefing on the current situation in Sudan.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Gold Production (July), Mining Production (July)

Wednesday, September 14, 2022:

Global

·       International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report

·       G20 Labor Ministers meet in Bali, Indonesia.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Mexico’s National Independent Union of Workers of the Automotive Industry (SINTTIA) is expected to begin a strike at Volkswagen’s Puebla state plant due to pay disputes.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US PPIs (August), MBA Mortgage Market Index (September)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (July), Business Confidence (September)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (July)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is expected to meet with President Xi Jinping as Xi travels to Uzbekistan for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       China’s People’s Bank of China 1-year MLF Announcement

·       Japan Industrial Production (July), Capacity Utilization (July), Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (September), Unemployment Rate (August), RBA Bulletin

·       India WPI Fuel and Food Reports (August)

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production (Q2)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate (Q2)

·       Philippines Industrial Production (July)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       European Union President Ursula von der Leyen to give an outline of the European Commission’s ideas on capping energy prices in the annual State of the Union Address.

·       Informal meeting of the EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers (through September 16)

·       Russia holds numerous regional and municipal elections across the country.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane speaks at ECB Money Market Contact Group meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       UK Inflation Rate (August), PPIs (August), Retail Sales (August)

·       Italy Residential Property Prices (July)

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Syria.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Retail Sales (July)

Thursday, September 15, 2022:

Global 

·       G-7 Speakers’ Conference (heads of G-7 Parliaments) meets in Berlin, Germany.

·       The UN Security Council will vote on resolutions linked to the Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Dáesh (UNITED).

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       US President Biden to hold United We Stand Summit to discuss gun violence, hate crimes, and other social threats to democracy.

·       US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler will testify before the US Senate Banking Committee. He will give an update on the SEC’s broad agenda.

·       El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua all celebrate Independence Day (public holidays).

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Retail Sales (August), Industrial Production (August), Manufacturing Production (August), Capacity Utilization (August), Business Inventories (July), Import Prices and Export Prices (August), Initial Jobless Claims (September), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (September) Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions ((September), Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (September), Philadelphia Fed Employment (September), NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (September), 

·       Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (July), Housing Starts (August)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Uzbekistan will host the 2022 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit. It is expected that Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi will meet (marking the first foreign trip by Xi in more than three years).  The SCO current members are India, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan; four countries — Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran and Mongolia — have an observer status with the SCO, and six countries — Azerbaijan, Armenia, Cambodia, Nepal, Turkey and Sri Lanka — have a dialogue partner status.

·       China’s Chairman of the National People’s Congress Li Zhanshu will visit South Korea to meet with President Yoon Suk-yeol and other officials. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       China Housing Price Index (August), Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August), Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (July)

·       South Korea Export Prices (August), Import Prices (August)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (August), Balance of Trade (August)

·       Indonesia Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (August)

·       India Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Sri Lanka GDP (Q2)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       The UK faces a deadline to respond to a European Union legal action over its failure to implement the Northern Ireland Protocol.

·       London Fashion Week begins.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos speaks at Research Centre on Regulation and Supervision of the Financial Sector in Lisbon, Portugal.

·       Bank of England interest rate decision is delayed until September 22 due to the death of Queen Elizabeth (the first time the BoE has done so since becoming independent 25 years ago)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (August)

·       France Inflation Rate (August)

·       Eurozone Balance of Trade (July), Labor Cost Index (Q2), Wage Growth 9Q2)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Inflation Rate (August)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August), Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (August), FX Reserves (September)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Building Permits (July)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (August), Inflation Rate (August)

·       Mozambique interest rate decision.

Friday, September 16, 2022:

Global 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       South African President Cyril Ramaphosa visits Washington DC and will meet with President Biden to discuss trade and investment issues.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (September), Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan Current Conditions (September), Michigan Inflation Expectations (September)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (July)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade/Imports/Exports (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       South Korea and the US hold Bilateral Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group meetings.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       China Foreign Direct Investment (August)

·       India FX Reserves (September)

·       Australia HIA New Home Sales (August)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (August)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Germany’s 187th Octoberfest begins in Munich.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       UK Retail Sales (August)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (July), Inflation Rate (August)

·       Eurozone Inflation Rate (August), CPI (August), New Car Registrations (July)

·       Russian Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and press conference.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Bloomberg’s September South Africa Economic Survey will be released.

Saturday, September 17, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       UK’s Liberal Democrat Party holds its annual conference in Brighton.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane gives the Cantillon lecture at the 45th Annual Dublin Economics Workshop in Wexford, Ireland.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 18, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Chile celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Paris holds a “No-Car Day”.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel GDP (Q2)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.