The Global Week Ahead: September 18-25, 2022

This week, the dominant geopolitical event of the week will be the United Nations 77th General Assembly's annual week-long General Debate. Heads of state from around the world will be attending and speaking – many coming directly from Queen Elizabeth II's funeral on Monday. Climate change, food and energy security challenges, and how to deal with Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine will dominate the week and the speeches of the various leaders addressing the assembly.

Economically, this is going to be the week of interest rate hikes. Central banks from around the world – led by the US Federal Reserve – are set to raise rates, some in quite dramatic fashion. The US is likely to raise rates 75 basis points. But watch for what Japan and Great Britain do, too (not to mention the central banks of Brazil, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, Chile, Indonesia, Taiwan, Turkey, Egypt, and South Africa among others). And we will watch for any significant changes in jobless claims in the US on Thursday. Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, September 18, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi concludes a two-day visit to Armenia to show support for the country in the face of attacks from Azerbaijan.

·       Chile celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Paris holds a "No Car Day" to support carbon-free emissions.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel GDP Growth Rate (Q2)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 19, 2022:

Global

• The Bank of International Settlements publishes its quarterly report on global financial markets.

• The G-20 Trade, Investment, and Infrastructure Working Group meets in Bali, Indonesia.

• World Bank Group President David Malpass will take part in a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of New York on the state of the global economy.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       The US Congress returns from the weekend facing the September 30 government funding deadline, one week from Friday. There has been some hope both parties will agree to a short-term funding plan until December 16, thus allowing Congress to leave early to head back home to campaign. But a major question has emerged as to whether to include the promised legislation to Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) expanding oil/gas permitting (which he got in return for supporting the Inflation Reduction Act). 

·       Progressive Democrats strongly oppose the measure. Manchin is expected to unveil the text of the bill sometime this week.

·       The US Senate is expected this week to take up the so-called Kigali Amendment, which would be the first climate treaty approved by the Senate in decades. Getting 67 Senators to vote in favor of the treaty is going to be tough, and it is uncertain at this time if it will pass.

·       The Clinton Global Initiative holds a two-day virtual summit.  Among those expected to speak are White House Director of the National Economic Council Brian Deese, SEC Chair Gary Gensler, BlackRock Chair and CEO Larry Fink, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, and US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. 

·       Fast Company is hosting its Innovation Festival through Thursday. The tech-focused event will interestingly have a big union focus as Amazon Labor Union President Christian Smalls and US Secretary of Labor Marty Walsh are both expected to speak. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US NAHB Housing Market Index (September)

·       Canada PPI (August), Raw Materials Prices (August)

·       Brazil Central Bank Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (July)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Hong Kong Roman Catholic Cardinal Joseph Zen Ze-kiun and five well-known members of the  Democratic Front are due to appear in court.  They are accused of failing to properly register a huminatrian fund for which they were administrators.

·       Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif to address the United Nations General Assembly. With the massive floods that have recently afflicted the country, it is expected he will focus heavily on climate change as a global risk.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       China Loan Prime Rate (September), Foreign Direct Investment (August)

·       Australia Central Bank Meeting Minutes released.

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Great Britain's Queen Elizabeth II's state funeral in London.

·       Port operatives and maintenance engineers in Liverpool dock operations will go on strike over pay issues.

·       A group of approximately 80 Russian business leaders is expected to travel to Tehran this week to build stronger economic and financial ties.  The delegation's trip is a result of Iran becoming a member last week of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and meetings between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a panel at the Single Resolution Board Annual Conference in Brussels.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos speech at the annual meeting Consejos Consultivos in Madrid.

·       Eurozone Construction Output (July)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (August)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Israel and Lebanon are expected to announce this week a ground-breaking maritime agreement that will allow both countries to drill particularly rich natural gas fields off the coast of both countries.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, September 20, 2022:

Global

·       The United Nations General Assembly holds General Debate (through September 26). World leaders will gather to discuss the Ukraine war, the food and energy security crisis, COVID responses, climate change, and nuclear weapons by rough states. A full schedule of who is speaking and when can be found here.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       US President Joe Biden to meet with Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the United Nations to discuss mutual security issues.

·       Chile's President Gabriel Boric will meet with investors in New York to discuss possible investments in the country's natural resources as well as various sustainable development initiatives.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       The US Federal Reserve Board begins two days of meetings in advance of their interest rate decision tomorrow.

·       US Housing Starts (August), Building Permits (August), Redbook (September)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (August), CPI (August)

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate (Q2)

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       South Korean President Yoon Seok Yeol to address the United Nations General Assembly.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (August)

·       Malaysia Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

·       Philippines Employment Growth (August), Industrial Production (August), PPI (August)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet with Bosnia and Herzegovina's leading Bosnian Serb politician, Milorad Dodik, in Moscow.  This is all part of Putin's efforts to pry away political elements of the EU to support his invasion of Ukraine.

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels.

·       Milan Fashion Week begins.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde to give the Karl-Otto Pöhl Lecture at the Frankfurter Gesellschaft für Handle, Industrie und Wissenschaft in Frankfurt.

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul to speak at the AFME 17th Annual European Leveraged Finance Conference in London.

·       Germany PPI (August)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (August), SECO Economic Forecasts 

·       Eurozone Current Account (July)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (July)

·       Italy Current Account (July)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Current Account (Q2)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (July)

·       Ghana GDP (Q2), PPI (August) 

Wednesday, September 21, 2022: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The House Financial Services Committee will hold a full committee hearing where the CEOs of Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Truist, US Bancorp, and PNC Financial Services will testify. The hearing is entitled "Holding Megabanks Accountable: Oversight of America's Largest Consumer Facing Banks." The Senate Banking Committee will hear from the same witnesses tomorrow.

·       Acting US Comptroller of the Currency Michael J. Hsu will give a keynote address on the state of the banking sector at the EMERGE Financial Health 2022 Conference in Los Angeles, California.

·       Belize celebrates National Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Federal Reserve Board Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

·       US MBA Mortgage Market Index (September), Existing Home Sales (August)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (July), Private Spending (Q2), Aggregate Demand (Q2)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (August)

·       Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (August), Unemployment Rate (Q2)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Japan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision\

·       Hong Kong Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (August)

·       India M3 Money supply (September)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (August)

·       Thailand Balance of Trade/Exports/Imports (August)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to address the United Nations General Assembly.

·       Malta celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB Governing Council holds a non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt.

·       UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (September), Public Sector net Borrowing ex-Banks (August)

·       Italy Construction Output (June), Balance of Trade (July)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (July)

·       Poland Retail Sales (August),

·       Russia PPI (August), Consumer Confidence (Q3)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Saudi Arabia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Balance of trade (August)

·       Israel Industrial Production (July)

·       UAE Central Bank Interest Rate Decision 

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (August)

Thursday, September 22, 2022:

Global

·       World Bank President David Malpass will speak at a Politico Live event entitled "Tipping Points: Confronting Multiple Global Crises."

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       The US Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing where the CEOs of Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Truist, US Bancorp, and PNC Financial Services will testify. The hearing is entitled "Annual Oversight of the Nation's Largest Banks."

·       US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen will speak at the Atlantic Festival.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       US Current Account (Q2), Initial Jobless Claims (Week of September 17), CB Leading Index (August), Kansas Fed Composite Index (September), Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (September), 10-year TIPS Auction

·       Mexico Mid-Month Core Inflation (September)

·       Canada's new Housing Price Index (August)

·       Argentina Current Account (Q2)

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Cambodia's Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts is expected to hand down final verdicts on the communist Khmer Rouge regime's role in the genocide of 1975-1979 and the role of the former head of state, Khieu Samphan.

·       Pakistan’s Supreme Court will hold a hearing where they are expected to indict former Prime Minister Imran Khan of contempt of court.  He has also been charged with terrorism offences.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Korea PPI (August)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (July), Leading Index (July)

·       Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, M2 Money Supply (August)

·       Taiwan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Consumer Confidence (September), Unemployment Rate (August), M2 Money Supply (August)

·       Hong Kong Current Account (Q2), Inflation Rate (August)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), S&P Global Services (September), S&P Composite (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       ECB General Council meeting in Frankfurt.

·       Bank of England Interest Rate Decision, Meeting Minutes

·       ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo speech at the Leaders in Finance AML Europe in Brussels.

·       ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen speech at the 9th Conference on the Banking Union hosted by Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer and the Goethe University's Institute for Law and Finance in Frankfurt.

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel speech at the Network Luxemburg-Frankfurt Financial Professionals meeting in Luxemburg.

·       France Business Confidence (September)

·       Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (August), Consumer Confidence (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Consumer Confidence (September), Overnight Lending Rate (September), FX Reserves (September)

·       Egypt Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (August)

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Mali celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, SACCI Business Confidence (August)

Friday, September 23, 2022:

Global 

·       The Autumn Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       The Federal Reserve hosts "Fed Listens: Transitioning to the Post-Pandemic Economy" - two panels with Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard moderating each.

·       US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), S&P Composite PMI (September), S&P Services (September)

·       Canada Retail Sales (July), Wholesale Sales (August), Manufacturing Sales (August)

·       Chile PPI (August)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (August)

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       The border between India and Bhutan is expected to reopen for the first time in 2 ½ years. It has been closed mostly because of COVID.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       India FX Reserves (September), Bank Lona Growth (September 19), 

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (August)

·       Singapore Core Inflation (August)

·       Philippines Business Confidence (Q3), Consumer Confidence (Q3)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       UK Prime Minister Liz Truss to release her emergency mini-budget to revive the UK economy.  Due to the ongoing energy shock, the average household in the UK faces paying an additional 2,5000 pounds in the coming year.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Germany &P Global Services PMI (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), S&P Global Composite PMI (September)

·       France &P Global Services PMI (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), S&P Global Composite PMI (September)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (September), S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI (September), S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI (September), CBI Distributive Trade (September)

·       Spain S&P Global Services PMI (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), S&P Global Composite PMI (September), GDP Growth ((Q2)

·       Switzerland Current Account (Q2)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Eurozone &P Global Services PMI (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), S&P Global Composite PMI (September)

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Ethiopia S&P Global Ratings to be released.

Saturday, September 24, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Italy holds general elections.  A right-wing alliance led by Giorgia Meloni is expected to sweep to power

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Guinea-Bissau celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 25, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (September), Jibun Bank Services PMI (September), Jibun Bank composite PMI (September)

Europe:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Russia holds a second round of regional and local elections.

·       The UK Labour Party holds its annual conference in Liverpool.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.