Global Calendar: May 9 - 15, 2022

It is going to be a particularly busy week both politically and economically. We are closely watching the Victory Day parade in Moscow on Monday which may give us some further indications of President Putin’s intentions toward Ukraine - and the West. We are also keenly paying attention to the elections in the Philippines which could have a significant impact on overall Indo-Pacific affairs going forward.

Political/Social Events –

• Philippines national elections. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr – son of the late dictator— is favored to win the presidency.  Also up for election: a new Vice President, 12 senators, 300 lower house legislators, and approximately 18,000 other local officials.

• Russia celebrates Victory Day, commemorating the surrender of Nazi Germany.

• Mexican President Andres Manual Lopez Obrador to meet with Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel in Havana, Cuba.

• President Biden is expected to sign Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act into law.

• Europe Day is celebrated in Europe, commemorating the 1950 Schuman declaration.

• World Trade Organization (WTO) General Council Meeting, Geneva, Switzerland.

• APEC commences senior Officials Meeting through May 18th in Bangkok, Thailand.

• World Trade Organization’s General Council Meeting, Geneva, Switzerland.

• Australia opens early voting centers for 2022 federal elections.

• Saudi Arabia to host inaugural Future Aviation Forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.  Saudi leaders hope this helps jump-start efforts to make the Kingdom a major regional airport hub.

• Pulitzer Prize winners and finalists announced, New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Wholesale inventories (Mar), consumer inflation (Mar)

• Japan’s Central Bank monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; FX reserves (Apr), Jibun Bank Services PMIs (Apr), Household Spending figures (Mar)

• China’s balance of trade, exports/imports (Apr)

• South Korea's current account (Mar)

• India GDP growth rate (Apr), inflation rate figures (Apr), GDP growth rate Q1

• Saudi Arabia S&P Global PMI (Apr)

• South Africa FX reserves (Apr), SACCI Business Confidence (Apr)

• France's balance of trade (Mar), current account (Mar), Exports/Imports (Mar)

• UK BBA mortgage rate (Apr), BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Apr)

• Mexico inflation rate figures (Apr)

• Brazil Central Bank Focus Market Readout

• Canada building permits (Mar)

Tuesday, May 10, 2022

Political/Social Events –

• President Biden meets with Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi in Washington DC. The primary focus of discussions is expected to be on assisting Italy and the greater EU with energy needs.

• South Korea holds its presidential inauguration, Seoul, South Korea.

• EU and United Nations hosts Brussels V Conference on Supporting the Future of Syria in Brussels.

• Great Britain’s Queen Elizabeth formally opens British Parliament’s legislative session.

• Russian President Putin expected to hold an economic policy session to discuss the impact of the War on Ukraine on Russia’s economy.

• G-7 Digital Affairs Ministers meet in Dusseldorf, Germany.

• United Nations commences a three-day conference meeting with Sudanese political groups regarding the democratic transition in Khartoum, Sudan.

• The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development 31st Annual Meeting in Marrakesh, Morocco.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Apr), Redbook (May), API Curide Oil Stock Change (May)

• South Korean Unemployment Rate (Apr)

• Brazil Central Bank Copom Meeting Meetings, Retail Sales (Mar), Current Account (Mar), Foreign Direct Investment (Mar), Bank Lending (Mar)

• Australia NAB Business Confidence (Apr), Retail Sales (Mar)

• Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q1, Industrial Production (Mar)

• Turkey Unemployment Rate (Mar)

• Italy Industrial Production Mar(

• Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (May)

• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (May), ZEW Current Conditions (May)

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Political/Social Events –

• EU hosts Cybertech Expo in Brussels (May 11-12)

• EU hosts Madrid Forum (European gas regulatory forum) in Madrid, Spain.

• India celebrates the annual Thrissur Pooram Elephant Festival.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Inflation Rate figures (Apr), MBA Purchase Index (May), MBA Mortgage Application (May), MBA 30-year Mortgage Rate (May), MBA Market Index (May), MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (May), EIA Crude/Distillate Stocks Change (May), EIA Refinery Crude (May)

• Brazil Inflation Rate (Apr)

• Russia Monetary Policy Report, FX reserves (Apr)

• Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May)

• China Inflation figures (Apr), PPI (Apr)

• India Consumer Confidence (Apr)

• Japan Coincident Index (Mar), Leading Economic Index (Mar)

• Germany Inflation rate (Apr), Harmonized Inflation Rate (Apr)

• Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (Apr)

• Organization Economic  (OECD) presents Sovereign Borrowing Outlook 2022

Thursday, May 12, 2022

Political/Social Events –

• President Biden hosts ASEAN leaders in Washington, DC (rescheduled from earlier this year).

• G-7 Foreign Ministers meet in Weissenhaus, Germany (through May 14)

• Finland is expected to formally announce its decision on whether to join NATO.

• Commonwealth of Independent States Council of Foreign Ministers meet in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

• EU-Japan Summit to be held in Tokyo, Japan. Both European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will attend where a coordinated China policy will be a key focus.

• Global COVID-19 Summit to be held in Washington, DC.

• Southeast Asian Games begin in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US PPIs (Apr), Jobless Claims (May), EIA Natural Gas Stocks (May), WASDE Report

• China New Yuan Loans (Apr), Outstanding Loan Growth (Apr), Vehicle Scores (Apr)

• Russia Balance of Trade (Feb & Mar)

• Australia Building Permits (Mar), Private House Approvals (Mar)

• India Retail Sales (Mar), Inflation Rate figures (Apr), Manufacturing Production (Mar)

• Japan Eco Watcher Survey Current (Apr), Central Bank presents “Summary of Opinions” on Monetary Policy Meeting

• UK GDP figures Q1, GDP 3-month avg, Industrial Production (Mar), Manufacturing Production (Mar), Balance of Trade (Mar), Manufacturing Production (Mar), Construction Orders (Q1), Business Investment (Q1)

• Germany Current Account (Mar)

• France IEA Oil Market Report

• Mexico Central Bank interest rate decision, Industrial Production (Mar)

• South Africa Mining Production (Mar), Gold Production (Mar), Manufacturing Production (Mar)

• Turkey FX Reserves (May)

• Argentina Inflation figures (Apr)

• South Korea Export/Import figures (Apr)

• Saudi Arabia OPEC Monthly Report

Friday, May 13, 2022

Political/Social Events –

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hosts a trilateral peace meeting with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and with Azerbaijan Foreign Minister in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

• Sweden’s Parliament is expected to debate the country joining NATO.

• G-7 Agriculture Ministers to meet in Germany. Global food security will be the focus of the meeting.

• Russian government expected to announce new list of sanctioned foreign entities and individuals barred from buying Russian products and natural resources.

• Iran hosts the 26th Annual International Oil, Gas, Refining and Petrochemical Exhibition.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Import Prices/Export Prices (Apr), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prel. May), Michigan Current Conditions (May), Michigan Inflation Expectations (Prel. May), Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (May)

• China Foreign Direct Investment (Apr)

• Russia Inflation Rate figures (Apr)

• France Inflation Rate figures (Apr)

• Spain Inflation Rate figures (Apr)

• Eurozone Industrial Production (Mar)

• Turkey Industrial Production (Mar), Retail Sales (Mar)

• India Imports/Exports (Apr), Balance of Trade (Apr), FX Reserves (Apr)

• Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (Mar), FX reserves (May)

Saturday, May 14, 2022

Political/Social Events –

• NATO Foreign Ministers hold an informal meeting in Berlin, Germany.

• The 66th Annual Eurovision Song Contest final is held in Turin, Italy.

• Iceland holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• No significant reports/events.

Sunday, May 15, 2022

Political/Social Events –

• Lebanon holds parliamentary elections.

• Switzerland holds a referendum on contribution to the European Border and Coast Guard Agency.

• EU-US Trade and Technology Council 2nd meeting held today and tomorrow in France (watch for a possible announcement on a deal for EU-US Privacy Shield replacement).

• Total Lunar Eclipse (“Blood Moon”) will be visible across North and South America as well as parts of Europe and Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia inflation rates (Apr), Wholesale Prices (Apr)

Global Events This Week

March 26 - April 3, 2022

This is Fulcrum Macro Advisors weekly calendar of key political and economic events we are watching in the coming week.  We hope this is helpful. Please let us know if you have any questions.

Saturday, March 26:

Political Events/Social Events –

•  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken begins a five-day tour of the Middle East and North Africa, with stops scheduled in Israel, the West Bank, Algeria, and Morocco.

• New US Sanctions on Russian banks by the West are set to take effect.

• Hong Kong chief executive election

• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to visit Nepal

• Maltese parliamentary elections

• Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress holds national convention to choose candidates for next year’s presidential elections

• Zimbabwe holds by-elections for 10 percent of parliamentary seats

Economic Events -

• China February industrial profits

Sunday, March 27:

Political Events/Social Events –

• Israel hosts high level summit with diplomats from the US, UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco (Abraham Accord signatories)

• Germany’s Saarland state election

• Uruguay holds referendum on 135 article of the Law of Urgent Consideration (LUC)

• Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan to hold a massive rally in Islamabad in attempt to prompt members of parliament to vote against upcoming no-confidence vote

• European Commission Vice President and High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell meets with Crown Prince Sheikh Meshal al-Ahmad al-Sabah and Foreign Minister of Kuwait Sheikh Ahmed Nasser in Kuwait City

• European Daylight Savings goes into effect at 1:00 a.m.

Economic Events -

• No significant reports/events to report.

Monday, March 28:

Political Events/Social Events –

• POSTPONED: President Biden was scheduled to host ASEAN leaders in Washington DC (March 28/29) but has postponed it indefinitely

• EU Interior Ministers hold extraordinary meeting to discuss Ukrainian and Modovan refugees situation

• President Biden sends his new budget proposal to Congress which will likely include $813 billion in national security spending

• The UN Security Council holds a briefing on Sudan

• Pope Francis meets with Canadian Indigenous delegation  

Economic Events –

• US reports goods trade balance (Feb), wholesale inventories (Feb), Retail inventories (Feb), Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing index (Mar)

• Brazil reports foreign direct investment, current account, Brazilian Central Bank Market Readout

• Mexico reports balance of trade (Feb)

• Argentina retail sales (Jan)

• South Korea consumer confidence (Mar)

• Japan unemployment rates, jobs/applications (Feb), Bank of Japan summary of opinions

• Israel unemployment rates

Tuesday, March 29:

Political Events/Social Events–

• President Biden meets with Singapore Prime Minister Hsien Loong in Washington to discuss Indo-Pacific security and supply chain issues

• Ukrainian President Zelensky to speak to the Danish Parliament

• Russian President Putin holds meeting on future of Russian aviation industry

• The UN Security Council holds a briefing on the UN mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

• The UN Human Rights Council meets to discuss Ukraine situation

• Lebanon’s parliament is expected to pass a new capital-control law

• European Commission Vice President and High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell speaks on the birth of geopolitical Europe in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

• Senior Officials Committee for the ASEAN Socia-Cultural Community meeting

• The Democratic Republic of the Congo official joins the East Africa Community 

Economic Events –

• US S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price (Jan), House price index (Jan), JOLTS job openings and job quits (Feb), Conference Board’s consumer confidence (Mar), Dallas Fed Services Index (Mar)

• UK Consumer credit, mortgage approvals, mortgage lending, net lending to individuals (all Feb)

• Canada weekly earnings average

• Germany CfK Consumer Confidence (Mar)

• Australia retail sales (Feb)

• Argentina economic activity (Jan), API crude oil stock change

• Japan retail sales (Feb)

• South Africa unemployment rate, SACCI Business Confidence (Mar & Feb)

• Spain retail sales (Feb)

• Kenyan Central Bank rate decision

Wednesday, March 30:

 Political Events –

• UK Prime Minister Johnson to unveil new energy plan (to be confirmed)

• Germany holds Energy Transition Dialogue in Berlin

• Sri Lanka hosts Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC)

• Alphabet Inc CEO Sundar Pichai to meet with European Commissioner of Competition Margrethe Vestager to discuss antitrust/competition issues

Economic Events –

• US GDP price index, GDP growth rate, PCE prices, Core PCE prices, Real consumer spending, GDP sales, EIA crude oil stocks, EIA gasoline stocks, EIA heating oil stocks, EIA refinery crude runs change, EIA distillate stocks change, EIA distillate fuel production change, EIA cushing crude oil stocks change, EIA crude oil imports change, mortgage applications, 30-year mortgage rates, mortgage market index, mortgage refinance index, MBA purchases index, ADP employment change (Mar)

• Germany import prices (Feb), inflation rate figures

• Turkey economic confidence (Mar)

• Italy industrial sales (Jan)

• Eurozone economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer sentiment, and consumer inflation expectations (all for Mar);

• Italy PPI (Feb)

• Spain inflation rate figures, business confidence (Mar)

• Brazil PPI (Feb), bank lending (Feb), net payrolls (Feb)

• South Africa price sector credit (Feb), money supply, budget balance (all Feb)

• Mexico unemployment (Feb)

• Russia  GDP (Feb), unemployment rate (Feb), real wage growth (Jan), retail sales (Feb), business confidence (Mar), corporate profits (Jan)

• South Korea industrial production (Feb) retail sales (Feb), manufacturing production (Feb), construction output (Feb)

• Japan industrial production (Feb)

• Mexico fiscal balance (Feb)

• Mozambique Central Bank interest rate decision

• Egypt GDP

Thursday, March 31:

Political Event/Social Events –

• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov meets with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi for Ministerial Conference of Afghanistan’s Neighbors (which include Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan)

• Deadline for Brazilian public officials who plan to run for office in October’s general elections to leave their current positions.

• OPEC and non-OPEC members meet virtually

• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg presents the military alliance’s report in Brussels

•  2022 Fifa Congress meets in Doha for the final draw for World Cup in November

 Economic Events –

• US personal spending, personal income, PCE price index (all Feb), intial jobless claims figures (Mar), Core PCER price index figures (Feb), Chicago PMI (Mar), EIA natural gas stocks (Mar), quarterly grain stock figures, prospective planting figures (Mar)

• China NBS manufacturing PMIs (Mar); struggling Chinese real estate company Evergrande expected to miss publication deadline of 2021 financial results

• Japan housing starts (Mar), construction orders (Mar), Tankan large manufacturers index Q1, Tankan non-Manufacturing outlook Q1, Tankan Small Manufacturers Index Q1

• Germany retail sales (Feb), unemployment rate (Feb), unemployed persons, unemployment change, unemployment rate (Mar)

• UK GDP growth (final Q4), business investment numbers

• France inflation rate, household consumption (Feb), PPIs (Feb), harmonized inflation rate (Mar)

• Italy unemployment rate (Feb), inflation rate (Mar)

• Spain concurrent account (Jan)

• Eurozone unemployment rate (Feb)

• Turkey balance of trade (Feb), foreign exchange reserves (Mar)

• South Africa PPIs (Feb), trade balance (Feb)

• India government budget value (Feb), infrastructure output (Feb), current account, external debt

• Brazil unemployment rate (Feb), nominal budget balance (Feb)

• Canada GDP (Jan), CFIB business barometer (Mar)

• Australia building permits, private house approvals, private sector credit (Feb), Markit manufacturing PMI (Mar)

• Angola Central Bank interest rate decision

• Namibia 2021 GDP, money supply (Feb)

• Zambia 2021 GDP, inflation figures (Mar), trade balance (Feb)

Friday, April 1:

Political Events/Social Events –

• European Union-China Summit held virtually to discuss trade and political tensions

• The UK assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council

• Russia expected to implement indexation of pensions and other social safety net measures

• Iran celebrates Republic Day – the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution

• April Fools’ Day (no fooling!)

Economic Events –

• US unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, participation rate, avg. hourly earnings; avg. weekly hours, government payrolls, manufacturing payrolls, Markit manufacturing PMI, ISM’s  manufacturing figures, ISM manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing employment, ISM  manufacturing prices, construction spending, Baker Hughes oil rig count (Apr), total vehicle sales (Mar)

• UK nationwide housing prices (Mar)

• Turkey’s Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

• Spain Markit manufacturing PMI (Mar)

• Italy Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

• France Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

• Germany Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

• Eurozone inflation rate (Mar), CPI, Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

• South Korea exports, balance of trade, imports (Mar), Markit PMI (Mar), inflation rate (Mar)

• Australia home loans (Feb), commodity prices (Mar)

• Indonesia Markit manufacturing PMI (Mar), inflation rate, core inflation rate

• China Caixin manufacturing PMI (Mar)

• Russia GDP YoY/Q4, Markit manufacturing (Mar)

• Japan Jibun manufacturing PMI (Mar)

• India foreign exchange reserves (Mar), balance of trade, exports, imports (Mar)

• Brazil industrial production figures (Mar), Markit manufacturing PMI (Mar), balance of trade

• Canada Markit manufacturing PMI (Mar)

• Mexico Markit manufacturing PMI (Mar)

• Nigeria PMIs (Mar)

• South Africa manufacturing PMI (Mar), Moody’s rating assessment

Saturday, April 2:

Political Events/Social Events –

• Pope Francis visits Malta

• Muslim month of Ramadan begins

• Hindu New Year

 Economic Events –

• No significant reports/events

Sunday, April 3:

Political Events/Social Events –

• Costa Rica holds presidential runoff elections

• Hungary holds parliamentary elections

• Serbia holds general elections

• Australia’s Daylight Savings Time begins

Economic Events –

• Israel foreign exchange reserves

• Mexico business confidence (Mar)