The Global Week Ahead
June 16 - 23, 2024
Last week was a busy week with the G7 Leaders' Summit and the Ukraine Peace Conference in Switzerland. This week will be less busy, but several important geopolitical events are worthwhile for the markets to watch closely.
Of particular note, Russian President Vladimir Putin is embarking on two rare international trips, a deviation from his usual schedule since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest. His first stop is North Korea, marking his first visit since 2000, to discuss ongoing arms deals. North Korea, in a show of support for Russia's War on Ukraine, is reportedly selling large quantities of ammunition to Russia, estimated to be more than 5 million artillery shells. From there, Putin will travel to Vietnam for trade discussions and, potentially, another weapons deal.
Also this week, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell travel to India for the first meetings between US and Indian officials since India's recent election. They are expected to discuss further advanced security technology cooperation between the two nations.
Meanwhile, German Economics Minister Robert Holbeck travels to China to discuss China-EU trade issues. Last week, the EU slapped 28 percent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle (EV) imports and is looking to apply similar tough tariffs on Chinese wind and solar exports, moves that have enraged Beijing.
Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, markets are likely to be most focused on economic data releases coming from the US and China. The US releases retail sales and industrial production data. There are also quite a few Federal Reserve Presidents speaking this week. China will announce its 1-year MLF rate decision and other key data releases later in the week.
Elsewhere, the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Swiss National Bank all meet on interest rates.
Below are all the other major political and economic events taking place around the world we are watching this week:
Sunday, June 16, 2024
Global
· The Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha (one of the two main holidays celebrated in Islam) is celebrated through June 20. Financial markets are closed in most Muslim countries.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)
· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q1
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, June 17, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The House of Representatives is out of session this week in observation of Juneteenth federal holiday. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and other senior Republican Party figures will travel to Florida to meet former President Donald Trump.
· In Bolivia, protesters are expected to march against shortages of fuel and U.S. dollars, blocking roads and creating border closures.
· The Russian Naval fleet that conducted military drills in Cuba will conclude its activities.
· In Argentina, today is the Commemoration of General Don Martín Miguel De Güemes Day, a public holiday. De Güemes is considered a hero of freedom and “the hero of the Gauchos.”
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives acceptance remarks at the 2024 Marshall Medal Forum: A US-UK Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Chicago.
· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker gives a speech at the Global Interdependence Center’s 42nd Annual Monetary and Trade Conference
· Canada Housing Starts (May)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (April)
· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (June)/ NOPA Crush Report/
· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (May)
· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Chinese Premier Li Qiang make joint remarks to the media after a signing ceremony in Canberra. Li’s visit concludes tomorrow.
· New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will visit Japan to meet with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. This is Luxon's first visit to Japan since he took the job in November. The two leaders are expected to discuss expanding trade ties and business cooperation, and exchange views on the increasingly contested geopolitical situation in the Indo-Pacific region.
· China and South Korea hold a 2+2 Security Talks in Seoul.
· Pakistan's government will observe a three-day public holiday through June 19 for the Muslim holiday Eid al-Adha.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (May)
· Japan Machinery Orders (April)
· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (May)
· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)
· China House Price Index (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ NBS Press Conference
· Philippines Cash Remittances (April)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· France begins the first official day of the parliamentary election campaign.
· There will be an informal leader meeting of the European Council. EU leaders will discuss the next institutional cycle. The European Council is central in designating the next high-profile EU-level roles, namely: electing the President of the European Council, nominating the President of the European Commission, and appointing the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
· The EU Environmental Council meets. They are scheduled to reach a general agreement on the approach for the waste framework directive and also try to reach a general approach on the Green Claims Directive.
· Today is Iceland Independence Day, marking the day in 1944 the country gained its independence from Denmark.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks followed by Q&A at a seminar organized by the Universidad Internacional Menendez Pelayo and Asociación de Periodistas de Information Econónomica (APIE) in Santander, Spain.
· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in an on-stage conversation and Q&A at Reuters Newsmakers event in London, United Kingdom.
· Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts
· Italy Inflation Rate Final (May)
· Spain Balance of Trade (April)
· Euro Area Labour Cost Index Final Q1/ Wage Growth Q1/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)
· Ireland Balance of Trade (April)
· Poland Core Inflation Rate (May)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Current Account Q1/ M1 Money Supply (May)
· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (May)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)
Tuesday, June 18, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Sudan. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan travel to New Delhi, India for meetings with India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. They are expected to discuss technology cooperation and the U.S.-India Initiative on Critical Emerging Technology (iCET) launched in January 2023.
· Argentine President Javier Milei will visit Prague, Czech Republic.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler give a speech on “The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.
· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to participate in an MNI Webcast discussion.
· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in"Economic and Monetary Policy" panel before hybrid 2024 Marshall Forum.
· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem to speak at CFA Society St. Louis luncheon.
· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to participate in moderated question-and-answer session before the Headliners Club Speaker Series in Austin, Texas.
· Mexico Aggregate Demand Q1/ Private Spending Q1
· USA Retail Sales (May)/ Redbook (June/15)/ Capacity Utilization (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs/Net Long-term TIC Flows (April)/ Foreign Bond Investment (April)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/14)
· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (April)
· Chile Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Russian President Vladimir Putin travels to North Korea for meetings with Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang. The two leaders are expected to discuss additional military arms deals (North Korea is selling significant amounts of ammunition to Russia to assist them in their war on Ukraine).
· Thailand is quickly moving toward a political crisis as the government is expected to indict former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra for allegedly violating the country's law against insulting the monarchy and for a computer crime. Additionally, the Constitutional Court will hear a case to dissolve the country’s main opposition party, the Move Forward Party and hear a case seeking the ouster of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin for appointing a convicted felon to his Cabinet.
· China will officially mark its 618 online Shopping Festival, though early shopping is already ongoing.
· South Korean doctors will strike to protest medical school admittance reforms.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Australia Reserve Bank Governor Connolly Speech/ Reserve Bank’s Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference
· Singapore Balance of Trade (May)
· China FDI (YTD) (May)
· Sri Lanka Manufacturing & Services PMI (May)
· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (June/18)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU General Affairs Council (Cohesion) will meet in Brussels. Ministers will exchange views on the link between cohesion policy and the EU strategic agenda for 2024-2029, set to be adopted by the European Council at its meeting on 27 and 28 June 2024.
· The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Transport) will meet in Brussels. They are expected to agree the Council’s position (‘general approach’) on the following legislative files concerning maritime safety and inland waterways, respectively: the new regulation on the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) and the revised directive on river information services (RIS).
Economic Reports/Events –
· There is a non-monetary policy meeting (virtual) of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank.
· European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindo speaks at a joint conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank on European Financial Integration in Frankfurt, Germany.
· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs Session 2 -"A single EU financial markets supervision - Approaches and potential benefits" at the joint conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank on European Financial Integration in Frankfurt, Germany.
· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)
· Euro Area Inflation Rate Final (May)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June)/ CPI Final (May)
· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June)/ ZEW Current Conditions (June)
· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (June)/ Inflation Report/ Interest Rate Decision
· Belarus GDP (May)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Seychelles Constitution Day, marking the day in 1993 when a referendum was held making the country a multi-party democracy.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Wednesday, June 19, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US celebrates Juneteenth National Independence Day, marking the day when enslaved people in Galveston, Texas, finally learned they were free two years after the Emancipation Proclamation had been issued. It is a national holiday. Banks and financial markets are closed.
· Today is Artigas Day in Uruguay, a national holiday. It marks the birthday of José Gervasio Artigas, who is considered the father of Uruguayan nationhood.
Economic Reports/Events –
· USA NAHB Housing Market Index (June)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date
· Canada BoC Summary of Deliberations
· Argentina Unemployment Rate Q1/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Retail Sales (April)
· Brazil Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Chinese Premier Li Qiang arrives in Malaysia on the next stage of an eight-day visit to the region.
· Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Vietnam. The US Government has rebuked Vietnam for visit. Putin and Vietnamese leaders are expected to discuss trade, energy, and weapons deals.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Reuters Tankan Index (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)
· Australia RBA Chart Pack
· Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)
· New Zealand Current Account Q1
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Great Britain Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI Input & Output (May)/ Retail Price Index (May)
· Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ Current Account (April)/ Construction Output (April)/ Eurogroup Meeting
· Italy Current Account (April)
· Ireland Residential Property Prices (April)
· Russia PPI (May)
· Spain Consumer Confidence (May)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Oman M2 Money Supply (April)/ Total Credit (April)
· Israel Inflation Expectations (June)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will be inaugurated for a second term. Ramaphosa gained the seat after striking a deal with the opposition parties following a weak electoral outcome.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Inflation Rate (May)/ Retail Sales (April)
· Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q1
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Global
· Today is the Summer Solstice, the longest day of the year in the northern hemisphere, is also considered the first day of summer for that half of the world.
· In the morning, the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of international peace and security: Cybersecurity. The Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak before the Risk Management Association in Richmond, Virginia.
· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/14)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/14)/ Current Account Q1/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/15)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (June)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (June)/Philly Fed CAPEX Index (June)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (June/14)
· Mexico Retail Sales (April)
· Canada New Housing Price Index (May)
· Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (April)
· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision
· El Salvador Balance of Trade (May)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· In Tokyo, the campaign to become the next governor of Tokyo (which is the world’s biggest city) begins.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q1
· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/15)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/15)
· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (June)
· Singapore Unemployment Rate Final Q1
· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)
· Indonesia Lending Facility Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (June)
· Taiwan Export Orders (May)
· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The Eurogroup (EU finance ministers and central bankers) will meet in Luxembourg. They are expected to discuss IMF Article IV review of euro area policies, the international role of the euro with regard to stocktaking, and various other issues.
· Arnold Schwarzenegger hosts his annual climate conference, the Austrian World Summit, in Vienna. Speakers include European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and UN secretary-general António Guterres.
· The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Social Policy) meets in Brussels. The Council will seek to agree its negotiating position on a proposed directive amending the existing rules on European Works Councils, which represent workers in large multinational companies operating in at least two EU or European Economic Area (EEA) countries.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Germany PPI (May)
· Switzerland Balance of Trade (May)/ SNB Interest Rate Decision
· Euro Area ECB General Council Meeting/ Consumer Confidence Flash (June)/ Ecofin Meeting
· Turkey Consumer Confidence (June)/ Auto Production & Sales (May)/ Budget Balance (May)/ Central Government Debt (May)
· Greece Current Account (April)
· Italy Construction Output (April)
· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (May)/ Employment Growth (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ PPI (May)
· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (June)
· Serbia Current Account (April)
· Great Britain BoE Interest Rate Decision/ BoE MPC Vote Cut/ BoE MPC Vote Hike/ BoE MPC Vote Unchanged/ MPC Meeting Minutes
· Belarus Industrial Production (May)
· Slovakia Unemployment Rate (May)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Unemployment Rate (May)/ Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Oman Inflation Rate (May)
· Jordan Industrial Production (April)
· Qatar Inflation Rate (May)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Martyrs’ Day in Eritrea, commemorating those who died in fighting for freedom between 1961 and 1991 when the country finally gained its independence from Ethiopia.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Building Permits (April)
Friday, June 21, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Argentine President Javier Milei will receive an award from the Juan Mariana Institute in Madrid, Spain.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Mexico Economic Activity (April)
· Canada PPI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Raw Materials Prices (May)
· USA S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)/ Existing Home Sales (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June/14)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June/21)
· Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (May)
· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (May)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Taiwan's opposition-controlled legislature is scheduled to hold another vote on a controversial bill that would strengthen parliamentary powers and, critics say, undermine President Lai Ching-te. The bill was already passed by the Kuomintang-Taiwan People's Party alliance, but Lai's Democratic Progressive Party government sent it back to parliament for reconsideration.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea PPI (May)
· Australia Judo Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)
· Japan Inflation Rate (May)/ Jibun Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)
· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (May)/ HSBC Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Bank Loan Growth (June/07)/ Deposit Growth (June/07)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/14)
· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (May)
· Hong Kong Current Account Q1/ Inflation Rate (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck will travel to Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou, China, through June 23. Habeck is expected to discuss the EU’s tough new 38.1 percent tariffs on Electric Vehicles (EVs) and other trade measures the EU has taken against China.
· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. The Ministers will exchange views on the state of play of the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), Russia’s war on Ukraine, tax policy, and an update on various financial services issues.
· The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Health) meets in Luxembourg. The ministers are expected to discuss ways forward for the regulatory incentives set out in the revision of the EU’s pharmaceutical legislation. The package aims to ensure the quality, safety and efficacy of medicines for EU patients and to harmonies the internal market. They will also adopt a recommendation for setting out new measures on vaccine-preventable cancers.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel on the occasion of the conferral of the Weltwirtschaftlicher Preis 2024 to her by the Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft in Kiel, Germany.
· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (May)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)
· Hungary Gross Wage (April)
· France Business Confidence (June)/ HCOB Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)
· Germany HCOB Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)
· Euro Area HCOB Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)
· Slovenia Business Confidence (June)/ PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)
· Ireland Wholesale Prices (May)
· Slovakia Current Account (April)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Kuwait Private Bank Lending (May)
· Lebanon Inflation Rate (May)
· Qatar M2 Money Supply (May)/ Total Credit Growth (May)
· Kazakhstan GDP (May)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Martyr’s Day in Toga, commemorating those who died fighting for the countries freedom which the country won in throwing off a dictatorship in 2005.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q1/ PPI (May)
Saturday, June 22, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Japanese Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako arrive in the UK ahead of a state visit running into next week.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Chad holds phase 2 of the presidential elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, June 23, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The 10th SelectUSA Investment Summit takes place in Washington, D.C. The Summit is the highest-profile event encouraging foreign direct investment into the US.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Thailand New Car Sales (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Italy holds run-off municipal elections.
· Today is the 8th anniversary of the Brexit vote in the UK.
· Today is Luxembourg National Day, celebrating the official birthday of the ruler of Luxembourg.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.