The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

October 29 - November 5, 2023

The escalating situation in Israel and Gaza continues to dominate the attention of the world and financial markets.  But so are the shocking anti-Israel and, clearly, antisemitic protests that have been held around the world in recent days.  Added that are the tense threats to Israel from Turkey, Iran, and other Middle East countries.  The situation is changing by the hour, and we will offer updates as events warrant.   

Meanwhile, there are a number of other significant geopolitical events to watch this week. President Biden will host a Summit of Latin American leaders on Friday to discuss economic growth and try to find ways to work together better to address migration issues.  Also this week, the UK will host the first AI Safety Summit seeking to better understand the threats AI poses and develop a global framework to mitigate those risks.  We expect the White House to issue an Executive Order on AI in conjunction to the Summit.

Also this week, China assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of November. This comes as Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who met with President Biden last week, travels to China for a four-day official visit.  It signifies a significant de-escalation of tensions between the two countries following a number of years of retaliatory tariffs and sanctions China placed on Australia.  This is the first time an Australian Prime Minister has visited China since 2016.

Finally, this is the first work week for the newly elected U.S. Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA).  It will be a tough one as the House begins racing to both figure out how to pass another continuing resolution by November 17 or risk a government shutdown as well as begin moving appropriations bills that must be done by December 31.  If Congress fails to pass all 12 appropriations bills, then a 1 percent across the board cut to federal spending will go into effect in January 2024.

On the global economic front, markets are watching closely as the U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets to consider interest rates.  While markets do not expect another rate increase, they will be listening carefully to Fed Chair Jay Powell’s post-meeting press conference to get a sense of where the Fed is going next on rates.

The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan also meet this week to consider interest rates.  On top of this, it is a heavy week of economic data reports.  The US reports important job numbers this week while China PMIs and a variety of important data reports from Japan are released.  In the EU, we will be watching GDP numbers from Germany, France, Italy, and the Eurozone.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, October 29, 2023

Global

  • G7 Trade Ministers are meeting in Osaka, Japan.

  • As part of his first trip in preparation for COP28, to be held in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, UN Secretary-General António Guterres arrives in Nepal at the invitation of the Government.   This will be a visit of solidarity with Nepal, which is the current Chair of the Global Coordination Bureau of the Least Developed Countries.  While in Nepal, the Secretary-General will meet with impacted communities. He is scheduled to have bilateral meetings with President Ramchandra Paudel, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda,’ as well as other senior officials. He will also address a Joint Session of the Parliament.   

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Colombia holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Vietnam Balance of Trade (October), Industrial Production (October), Inflation (October), Retail Sales (October), Tourist Arrivals

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Oman holds elections for their parliament.

  • Today is Turkey Republic Day, commemorating the founding of the Republic 100 years ago.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Manufacturing Production (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

 

Monday, October 30, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim visits Singapore to meet newly elected President Tharman Shanmugaratnam.  They will also participate in a signing ceremony of a new agreement on investment cooperation. The two nations trade more than $84 billion annually.

  • Hong Kong hosts FinTech Week through November 5.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Today is the October Bank Holiday in the UK.  It is a public holiday.

  • Australia Retail Sales (September)

  • Pakistan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Vice President Luis de Guindos speaks at the Leadership Forum organized by Instituto de Empresa in Madrid, Spain.

  • ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives a speech at the London School of Economics' Financial Markets Group event "Five years of European Banking Supervision and Beyond" in London, United Kingdom.

  • Eurozone Economic Sentiment (October), Consumer Confidence (October), Industrial Sentiment (October), Selling Price Sentiment (October)

  • Germany GDP ()Q3), Inflation (October),

  • UK BoE Consumer Credit (September), Mortgage Data (September), Net Lending to Individuals (September)

  • Ireland Consumer Confidence (October)

  • Spain Inflation (October), Business Confidence (October)

  • Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (October)

  • Bulgaria PPI (September), Business Confidence (October)

  • Slovakia Business Confidence (October)

  • Slovenia CPI (October), Inflation (October)

  • Hungary Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

  • Greece PPI (September)

  • Montenegro Balance of Trade (September)

  • Bosnia & Herzegovina Retail Sales (September)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Composite Economic Index (September)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa M3 Money Supply (September, Private Sector Credit (September)

 

Tuesday, October 31, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Employment Cost – Benefits & Wages (Q3), Redbook (October 28), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prides (August), House Price Index (August), Chicago PMI (October), CB Consumer Confidence (October), Dallas Fed Services Index (October),

  • Canada GDP (August & September)

  • Brazil Unemployment (September)

  • Mexico GDP (Q3)

  • Chile Copper Production (September), Industrial Production (September), Manufacturing Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Unemployment (September)

  • Uruguay Unemployment (September), Balance of Trade (September)

  • Argentina Tax Revenue (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs (October)

  • India Government Budget Value (September), Infrastructure Output (September)

  • Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and Quarterly Outlook Report, Japan Unemployment (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September), Consumer Confidence (October), Housing Starts (September),

  • South Korea Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

  • Taiwan GDP (Q3)

  • Hong Kong GDP (Q3)

  • Singapore Bank Lending (September), Business Confidence (Q3)

  • Australia Housing Credit (September), Private Sector Credit (September)

  • Philippines PPI (September)

  • Thailand Industrial Production (September), Current Account (September), Private Consumption (September), Private Investment (September), Retail Sales (September)

  • New Zealand Building Permits (September)

  • Malaysia M3 Money Supply (September)

  • Sri Lanka Inflation (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Serbia to meet with President Aleksandar Vučić; and meets with Prime Minister Ana Brnabić in Belgrade.  Later, she travels to Montenegro to meet with Montenegrin President resident Jakov Milatović; and caretaker Prime Minister Dritan Abazović.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks and a colloquium with students organized by ICADE University in Spain.

  • Eurozone GDP (Q3), Inflation (October), CPI (October)

  • Germany Retail Sales (September), Import Prices (September)

  • France GDP (Q3), Household Consumption (September), Inflation (October), PPI (September)

  • Bank of England Executive Director for Banking, Payments, and Innovation Victoria Cleland gives the keynote speech at the Digital Innovation Summit 2023 in London.

  • Italy GDP (Q3), Inflation (October), PPI (October)

  • Poland Inflation (October)

  • Greece Retail Sales (August)

  • Spain Current Account (August)

  • Switzerland Retail Sales (September)

  • Hungary Inflation (October)

  • Serbia Balance of Trade (September), Industrial Production (September), Retail Sales (September)

  • Ukraine Current Account (September)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3)

  • Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September), Tourism Revenues (Q3)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nigeria FX Reserves (October)

  • South Africa Balance of Trade (September) 

 

Wednesday, November 1, 2023 

Global

  • China assumes the Chair of the UN Security Council.  In the afternoon, there will be a press briefing by the Permanent Representative of China to the United Nations and the President of the Security Council for the month of November, Ambassador Zhang Jun. 

  • The World Trade Organization holds a General Council meeting in Geneva through November 2.

  • The UK hosts the AI Safety Summit through November 2 in London.  Leaders from around the world will travel to London to discuss the risks of AI and how they can be mitigated.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Antigua Independence Day, marking the day the country gained independence from the UK in 1981.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • U.S. Federal Reserve Board Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference,  U.S. Treasury Refunding Announcement, US ADP Employment Change (October), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), MBA Mortgage Index (October 27) ISM Manufacturing PMI (October), JOLTs Job Openings (September), Construction Spending (September)

  • Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will appear before the Canadian Senate’s Standing Committee on Banking, Commerce, and the Economy.

  • Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision, Brazil Industrial Production (September), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), Balance of Trade (October)

  • Mexico Business Confidence (October), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Peru Inflation (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • India puts into effect its new “import management system” to monitor shipments of laptops, tablets, and other similar devices. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • India S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), M3 Money Supply (October 20)

  • Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Hong Kong Retail Sales (September)

  • Australia Ai Group Industry Index (October), Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (October), Ai Group Construction and Manufacturing Indexes (October), Building Permits (September), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (October), Commodity Prices (October)

  • New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report, Unemployment (Q3), Labor Costs (Q3)

  • Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October), Inflation (October), Tourist Arrivals (September)

  • Malaysia S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Taiwan S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Vietnam S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Thailand S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Pakistan Consumer Confidence (October)

  • Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • UK Nationwide Housing Prices (October), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Greece S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Russia GDP (September), S&P Manufacturing PMI (October), Unemployment (September), Business Confidence (October), Retail Wage Growth (August), Retail Sales (September), Corporate Profits (August), M2 Money Supply (September)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Qatar Balance of Trade (September)

  • Saudi Arabia Me Money Supply (September), Private Bank Lending (September)

  • Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Kenya Inflation (October)

  • Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (October)

  • South Africa Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, ABSA Manufacturing PMI (October) 

 

Thursday, November 2, 2023

Global

  • The International Vienna Energy and Climate Forum will take place on 2 and 3 November at the Hofburg International Centre in Vienna.

  • UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak hosts the AI Safety Summit 2023 at Bletchley Park, UK.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Mexico celebrates the annual Day of the Dead parade in Mexico City.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Challenger Job Cuts (October), Nonfarm Productivity (Q3), Factory Orders (September)

  • Mexico FX Reserves (September)

  • Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (September)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The 3rd round of Fukushima Daiichi treated water will be released.  The release of the damaged nuclear power plant water has become a major diplomatic irritant between Japan and China, which has condemned Japan’s release of the water and restricted the sale of Japanese fish products to China.

  • IMF officials travel to Pakistan to hold talks on potential financial relief via the release of a $710 million second tranche of a pre-approved $3 billion loan. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Korea Inflation (October), CPI (October)

  • Australia Balance of Trade (September), Home Loans (September), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

  • Hong Kong Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Pakistan Inflation (October), Wholesale Prices (October)

  • Malaysia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with UN Secretary General António Guterres in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a lecture on "Monetary Policy Tightening in the Euro Area"  at the University of Limerick in Limerick, Ireland.

  • ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in a fireside chat with Gillian Tett, Financial Times, at the 30th CIBP Congress "Cooperative Banks, Actors of Transitions" in Paris, France.

  • ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the Homer Jones Memorial Lecture at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in St. Louis, Missouri.

  • Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October), Unemployment (October)

  • Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

  • France Budget Balance (September), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Poland S&P Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Ireland Unemployment (October)

  • Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Switzerland Inflation (October), CPI (October)

  • Romania PPI (September)

  • Hungary Balance of Trade (August)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bahrain Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (October)

  • Kuwait Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Egypt Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Qatar Deposit Interest Rate (November),

  • Royal Reserve Bank of Saudi Arabia Interest Rate Decision

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Britain's King Charles III makes a state visit to Kenya.

  • The 10th Africa Fintech Summit begins in Lusaka, Zambia. 

  • The 20th African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) Summit Forum begins in Johannesburg. Key delegations from all member countries, regional economic entities, and representatives from the private and public sectors will meet to strengthen trade and economic ties between the U.S. and sub-Saharan Africa. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Total New Vehicles Sales (October)

 

Friday, November 3, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • President Joe Biden will host an Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity Leaders’ Summit, which will include leaders from South American nations.  Among the issues they will discuss are greater trade opportunities, tackling migration issues, and climate change.   

  • The US Financial Stability Oversight Board, chaired by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, will convene to discuss commercial real estate market developments; get an update on the Inter-Agency Working Group on Treasury Market Surveillance; approve the Council’s 2023 annual report; and review the Council’s analytic framework for financial stability risk identification, assessment, and response and the Council’s interpretive guidance on nonbank financial company determinations. 

  • Today is Dominican Independence Day, commemorating when it gained independence from the UK in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will begin visits to the Philippines and Malaysia.  The aim of the visit is to discuss increased security with Japan.  Both countries are recipients of Japan’s Official Security Assistance (OSA) framework.

  • Today is Culture Day in Japan.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Caixin Services & Composite PMI (October)

  • India S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (October), Bank Loan Growth (October 20)

  • South Korea FX Reserves (October)

  • Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (October)

  • Singapore Retail Sales (September)

  • Taiwan FX Reserves (October)

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones speaks at the Regulators 2023 (FINSIA) Conference in Sydney, Australia Judo Bank PMIs (October), Retail Sales (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Unemployment (September)

  • Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

  • France Industrial Production (October), Private Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3)

  • Bank of England Executive Director for Markets Andrew Hauser gives the keynote speech at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference in London.

  • Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Member Jonathan Haskel participates as a panelist discussing “Labour Market Dynamics” at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference in London.

  • UK S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (October)

  • Italy Unemployment (September)

  • Slovenia Balance of Trade (September)

  • Greece Unemployment (September)

  • Romania Unemployment (September)

  • Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (October)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Imports/Experts/Balances of Trade (October), Inflation (October), PPI (October), Auto Sales (October)

  • Bahrain M2 Money Supply (September), Private Sector Credit (September)

  • Lebanon BLOM PMI (October)

  • Egypt FX Reserves (October)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (October)

  • Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (October)

 

Saturday, November 4, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Current Account (Q3)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Russia celebrates the Day of Unity, commemorating an uprising in Moscow against Polish forces in 1612. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

  

Sunday, November 5, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • In the US, Daylight Savings Time ends.  Enjoy your extra hour of sleep!

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Moldova holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt S&P Global PMI (October)

  • Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (October)

  • Qatar Financial Centre PMI (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

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Francis Kelly
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