Recommended Weekend Reads
October 27 - 29, 2023
Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend. And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.
Middle East
“The Israel and Gaza War: Economic Repercussions” Brookings Institution
Brookings’ scholars provide a brief discussion of the possible economic repercussions, bearing in mind the extreme uncertainty characterizing the situation. The repercussions of the crisis are dependent on the extent and duration of the fighting, associated geopolitical tensions, and the possible occurrence of terrorist attacks. While the overall reaction of financial markets has been relatively muted so far, the risks of an intensification and broadening of the conflict are material, and their potential fallout could be severe, especially for countries in the region.
“Will Lebanon Be Safe or Sorry?” Carnegie Middle East Center
Many Lebanese are playing a morbid game these days—assessing the probability that their country will be destroyed if Hezbollah enters the conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas. On several occasions, the Israelis have warned that in any future war with Hezbollah, they would send Lebanon “back to the stone age.” The assumption is that once Israel begins a ground invasion of Gaza, the prospect of a Lebanon conflict will greatly increase.
“Egypt in the Cauldron of Gaza” Foreign Affairs
As Israel readies for a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, much attention has shifted to how Egypt will respond in the coming days and weeks. The Egyptian government, after all, has been party to the 16-year-long Israeli blockade of Gaza, enforcing tight controls on what comes in and out of the enclave through the border crossing at Rafah. The Egyptian people, however, see their own circumstances very differently: like the people of Gaza, they are trapped by corruption and neglect in an apparently endless spiral of poverty and subjugation, as bread, freedom, and justice seem increasingly out of reach. That kind of despair breeds only bitterness and anger. The Sisi government may be able to deflect and contain protests against its own policies, but only at the cost of more repression, since local echoes of Palestinian discontent and frustration are not hard to discern in the demonstrations of solidarity that have spread across the country.
“Al-Monitor/Premise Poll: 82% of Americans wary of US Intervention in Israel-Hamas War” Al Monitor
As the Israel-Hamas war rages on and threatens to spill into a wider regional conflict, Americans are either unsure of or reject a US military intervention in the region, according to a new Al-Monitor/Premise poll.
Americas
“Paper Tiger or Pacing Threat? China’s Security and Defense Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean” Center for Strategic and International Studies
China has long couched its engagement with Latin America and the Caribbean in primarily economic terms. However, China is becoming increasingly strident in its efforts to bolster defense and security initiatives in the Western Hemisphere. Chinese defense and security engagements manifest along a spectrum, including dual-use civilian and military infrastructure projects, public safety assistance, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, arms sales, and joint military-to-military exchanges and trainings. An expanded military and security presence in the hemisphere poses significant concerns for the United States in the event of a potential conflict or crisis, imperils regional stability by empowering criminal regimes in the hemisphere, and risks eroding democratic norms within regional militaries and police forces.
“’Compensate the Losers?’ Economic Policy and Partisan Realignment in the U.S.” National Bureau of Economic Research
Abstract: We argue that the Democratic Party’s evolution on economic policy helps explain partisan realignment by education. We show that less-educated Americans differentially demand “predistribution” policies (e.g., a federal jobs guarantee, higher minimum wages, protectionism, and stronger unions), while more-educated Americans differentially favor redistribution (taxes and transfers). This educational gradient in policy preferences has been largely unchanged since the 1940s. We then show the Democrats’ supply of predistribution has declined since the 1970s. We tie this decline to the rise of a self-described “New Democrat” party faction who court more educated voters and are explicitly skeptical of predistribution. Consistent with this faction’s growing influence, we document the significant growth of donations from highly educated donors, especially from out-of-district donors, who play an increasingly important role in Democratic (especially “New Democrat”) primary campaigns relative to Republican primaries. In response to these within-party changes in power, less-educated Americans began to leave the Democratic Party in the 1970s, after decades of serving as the party’s base. Roughly half of the total shift can be explained by their changing views of the parties’ economic policies. We also show that in the crucial transition period of the 1970s and 1980s, New Democrat-aligned candidates draw disproportionately from more-educated voters in both survey questions and actual Congressional elections.
China
“2023 Report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China” U.S. Department of Defense
The U.S. Department of Defense recently released its annual report on "Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China." The congressionally mandated report serves as an authoritative assessment on military and security developments involving the PRC. The report finds that in 2022, the PRC increasingly turned to the PLA as an instrument of statecraft. Throughout the year, the PLA adopted more coercive actions in the Indo-Pacific region, while accelerating its development of capabilities, including its nuclear, space, and cyberspace capabilities; deepening military ties with Russia; and strengthening its ability to project power in the Indo-Pacific region and globally. At the same time, the PRC largely denied, cancelled, and ignored recurring bilateral defense engagements, as well as DoD requests for military-to-military communication at multiple levels.
Book Recommendation
Germany 1923 by Volker Ullrich
(Liveright Publishing, 432 pages, 2023)
1923 was, for Germany, the year of polycrisis that would shape the next two decades and beyond for Europe and the world. Adolf Hitler attempted his Beer Hall Putsch in Munich. The German government failed to make reparation payments to France, which resulted in Paris sending in troops to occupy the Ruhr region – the economic backbone of an otherwise broke and crumpled German economy.
It turned inflation in Germany into hyperinflation. It also was a bitter and humiliating event for the German people, who were still stunned at the loss of the War and the heavy financial punishments placed upon them.
That, in turn, ignited a series of political crises in Germany, threatening the disintegration of the nation. And that brought the next horrific evolution of events: The empowerment Hitler and his followers as increasingly desperate Germans looked for a powerful leader to ascend who could restore Germany and their lives.
2024 did see a resolution to the reparation issue and the pulling out of French troops from the Ruhr. But the damage had been done. The long fuse leading to Hitler’s rise to complete power a decade hence was lit.
Ullrich’s book is a healthy and timely reminder of how fragile democracy is, requiring constant, careful tending and protection. What happened in 1923 Germany led to the German people losing faith in their government and the democratic institutions on which it was based – thus opening the door to Hitler’s rise a short ten years later.
The same can be said about national and global economies and just how dangerous inflation can become – and how badly it can get out of control due to political tensions. All of which remain salient lessons today.
Germany 1923 is a fascinating and fact-rich read. We highly recommend it.
