The Global Week Ahead

April 7 - 14, 2024

(NOTE: Our apologies for the late delivery. We experienced technical issues, which have been fixed).

This coming week looks to be a historic one for U.S.-Japan relations. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will visit Washington, D.C., for an official state visit with President Biden, the first such visit by a Japanese Prime Minister in nine years. Kishida will also address a joint session of Congress and participate in a trilateral meeting with President Biden and Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. to discuss how to build more robust mutual defense capabilities to counter Chinese ambitions in the region. 

What makes the Biden-Kishada meetings historical is the pending announcement of a significant upgrade in US-Japan defense ties, expanding arms equipment, and technology cooperation between the two countries. The agreement comes in the face of growing concern in Japan about China's military intentions in the Indo-Pacific and the ongoing threat of North Korean nuclear and missile development.  

Also this week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid in a bid to further pressure Israel to agree to a cease-fire and refrain from the planned military assault on the city of Rafah, a city with more than one million inhabitants and refugees.

Beijing will also be busy this week. Having just finished a four-day series of meetings with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Chinese officials will host Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. During her visit, Yellen made a point of strongly discouraging Chinese banks from working with Russia to help fund the Ukraine war effort or face U.S. sanctions.

Important legislative elections will be held in South Korea this week. The outcome will help determine South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's ability to move his agenda in the future.  

Currently, the opposition Democratic Party holds a majority in the National Assembly, and President Yoon's People Power Party seeks to gain the majority. 

On the global economic radar screen this week, the European Central Bank will meet to discuss interest rates. Markets are hopeful the ECB will move to lower rates. Also, in Europe this week, markets will watch UK GDP numbers to see if the country has moved out of recession and back to growth.  

Canada's central bank meets this week to decide interest rates, too, while the U.S. Federal Reserve releases minutes from their last meeting, which may give further clarity as to when the Fed might begin lowering rates. Also, inflation figures are being released in the U.S. this week. Expectations are inflation will come in lower.  

In Asia, markets will be looking closely at China's inflation data and trade figures as well as Japan's trade figures.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, April 7, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

• Thailand Consumer Confidence (March)

• Indonesia Motorbike Sales YoY (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Poland holds local elections.

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers in Brussels through April 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 8, 2024

Global

• On 22 March 2024, during a Security Council meeting, in connection with the item entitled “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question,” a meeting will be held in the UN General Assembly Hall on the use of the veto.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid in Washington, D.C.

• Indian Foreign Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar visits Washington, D.C., for meetings with Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

• US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will brief reporters on her just-completed visit to China.

• EU Election observers arrive in Venezuela for talks on sending an electoral observation mission to observe the July 28 elections.  Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has faced harsh criticism globally and from neighbors Brazil and Colombia for saying he would not allow foreign observers in to observe.  He has also effectively blocked any serious opposition candidate from running against him.

• Nicaragua is expected to formally file paperwork against Germany in the International Criminal Court over Germany’s support for Israel in the Gaza conflict.

• Venezuela will host through April 22 the latest round of peace talks between the Colombian government and the National Liberation Army rebel group.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in conversation with Missoula community members and University of Montana faculty and students.

• USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)/ 3 & 6-Month Bill Auction/ Fed Kashkari Speech

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout/ Car Production MoM (March)/ New Car Registrations MoM (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• In Beijing, President Xi Jinping will meet with Taiwan's former President Ma Ying-jeou.  They previously met in 2015.  Ma, who belongs to Taiwan's main opposition, Kuomintang, and is widely seen as pro-Beijing, is on an 11-day visit to China.

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrives in Beijing for talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Average Cash Earnings YoY (February)/ Overtime Pay YoY (February)/ Current Account (February)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (March)

• Australia Home Loans MoM (February)/ Investment Lending for Homes (February)

• Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• China’s Commerce Minister, Wang Wentao, travels to France and Italy this week for talks on the EU’s probe of China’s Electric Vehicle industry.

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers the opening speech at the Clean Transition Dialogue on Mobility in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England’s deputy governor Sarah Breeden speaks at an event hosted by the Swiss National Bank in Zurich.

• Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Industrial Production MoM (February)/ 3 & 9-Month Bubil Auction

• France Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ 3, 6, & 12-Month BTF Auction

• Turkey Industrial Production YoY (February)/ Auto Sales YoY (March)

• Great Britain BBA Mortgage Rate (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The World Bank will publish its sub-Saharan Africa economic outlook report ‘Africa’s Pulse’ with updated economic forecasts for 2024 and 2025.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Tuesday, April 9, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (March)/ Redbook YoY (April/06)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/05)

• Mexico Inflation Rate YoY (March)/ Core Inflation Rate YoY (March)

• Argentina Industrial Production YoY (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (April)/ NAB Business Confidence (March)

• Japan 5-Year JGB Auction/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Machine Tool Orders YoY (March)

• Singapore MAS 4 & 12-Week Bill Auction

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU President Ursula von der Leyden meets with the Presidium of the Confederation of German Employers' Associations (BDA) in Berlin, Germany.  She later delivers the opening speech at the second New European Bauhaus Festival in Brussels.

• Today is Kosovo Constitution Day, celebrating when the country ratified a new constitution in 2008.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (March)/ 20-Year Treasury Gilt Auction

• France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account (February)

• Germany 5-Year Bobl Auction

• Spain 6 & 12-Month Letras Auction

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Industrial Production YoY (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, April 10, 2024

Global

• Today is Eid al-Fitr, which marks the end of Ramadan.  Financial markets across the Middle East, parts of Africa, and Asia are closed.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Joseph Biden will host Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the White House for an official visit and State Dinner.  This is the first such visit by a Japanese leader in nine years.

• Argentine President Javier Milei will visit Miami, Florida.  While there, he is expected to meet with potential investors in Argentina and also receive an award for his support of Israel from the Shul Jewish Community Center.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes, USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/05)/ Core Inflation Rate YoY (March)/ Inflation Rate YoY (March)/ CPI (March)/ Wholesale Inventories MoM (February)/ EIA Crude Oil and Gasoline Stocks Change (April/05)

• Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in panel before the Social Finance Institute.

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will participate in a virtual discussion entitled “Basel Capital Requirements” at the European Bank Executive Forum.

• Brazil Inflation Rate YoY (March)

• Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report and Interest Rate Decision, Canada Building Permits MoM (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• South Korea will vote in legislative elections that will determine President Yoon Suk Yeol’s ability to move his agenda going forward.   Currently, the opposition Democratic Party holds a majority in the National Assembly, and President Yoon’s People Power Party is seeking to gain the majority.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Bank Lending YoY (March)/ PPI YoY (March)

• Asian Development Bank updates economic outlook.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg meets Finland's President Alexander Stubb in Brussels.  Finland recently became a formal member of NATO.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Italy Retail Sales YoY (February)/ 12-Month BOT Auction

• Germany 15-Year Bund Auction

• Russia Inflation Rate YoY (March)

• Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, April 11, 2024

Global

• In the UN General Assembly Hall, there will be a meeting on the use of veto on 28 March 2024 during a Security Council meeting in connection with the item entitled “Non-proliferation/Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.”

• OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.

• The OECD publishes annual statistics on global development assistance.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Japan, the Philippines and the U.S. will hold trilateral talks in Washington, the leaders' first such meeting, as they look to tackle regional issues including Beijing's claims to the South China Sea. Japan's Kishida told Nikkei in an exclusive interview that the three countries will work together in areas such as semiconductors, digitalization, communication networks, clean energy and critical minerals. 

• Japanese Prime Minister Kishada will give an address to a joint session of Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak before the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York 2024 Member Symposium.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in moderated conversation on "Leadership in Financial Services" before the Urban Financial Services Coalition 50th Anniversary Celebration hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

• Brazil Retail Sales YoY (February)

• Mexico Industrial Production YoY (February)

• USA PPI (March)/ Fed Williams Speech/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/05)/ 4 & 8-Week Bill Auction/ Fed Collins Speech/ Fed Bostic Speech/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/10)/ WASDE Report

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The IMF’s financial assistance program to Pakistan expires today.  IMF officials will arrive in Pakistan to negotiate a fresh bailout package.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/06)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/06)/ 20-Year JGB Auction

• Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ Building Permits MoM Final (February)

• China Inflation Rate YoY (March)/ PPI YoY (March)/ Vehicle Sales YoY (March)/ New Yuan Loans (March)/ M2 Money Supply YoY (March)/ Outstanding Loan Growth YoY (March)/ Total Social Financing (March)

• Indonesia Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The Eurogroup will meet in Luxembourg.  They will discuss exchange rate and inflation developments and greater Euro area competitiveness.

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications Ministers in Louvain, Belgium, through April 12.  They will discuss online user responsibility, economic security, and the recently published White Paper, which tackles Europe’s digital infrastructure needs.

• President von der Leyen, together with Markus Söder, Minister-President of the Free State of Bavaria, visits the nuclear fusion reactor at the Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics in Garching, Germany.

• Heathrow Airport’s border force goes on strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Monetary Policy meeting in Frankfurt and press conference following the Governing Council meeting.

• Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (March)

• Italy Industrial Production YoY (February)/ 3, 7, 15, 20, & 30-Year BTP Auction

• Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/05)

• Euro Area Deposit Facility Rate/ ECB Interest Rate Decision/ Marginal Lending Rate

• Germany Current Account (February)

• Russia Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Gold Production YoY (February)/ Mining Production YoY (February)/ Manufacturing Production YoY (February)/ SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

Friday, April 12, 2024

Global

• The International Energy Administration releases the latest monthly oil statistics.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Steel will hold a special meeting of stakeholders as a planned takeover by Japan's Nippon Steel sparks controversy. The iconic American steelmaker's labor union, backed by President Joe Biden, is wary of the deal, although its major shareholder backs the move.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak and participate in a moderated conversation on “Housing" before the Confronting America's Housing Crisis: Solutions for the 21st Century Symposium hosted by The Murphy Institute Center for Public Policy Research, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and Tulane University's School of Architecture and AB Freeman School of Business.

• San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly will speak before the hybrid 2024 Fintech Conference: the Evolution of Fintech—AI, Payments and Financial Inclusion, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the Lam Larsen FinTech Initiative at San Francisco State University, and the Center for Analytical Finance at the University of California at Santa Cruz.

• USA Import Prices YoY (March)/ Export Prices YoY (March)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/12)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Fed Daly Speech

• Argentina Inflation Rate YoY (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Unemployment Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

• Singapore GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv Q1/ Monetary Policy Statement

• China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

• Japan 3-Month Bill Auction/ Capacity Utilization MoM (February)/ Industrial Production MoM Final (February)/ Industrial Production YoY Final (February)

• India Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/05)/ Industrial and Manufacturing Production YoY (February)/ Inflation Rate YoY (March)

• Indonesia Car Sales YoY (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  They discuss the state of play of the economic and financial impact of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. They will also seek to approve the EU’s mandate for the G20 finance ministers’ and central bank governors’ meeting of 18 April 2024. The Council will also aim to approve an EU statement for the International Monetary and Financial Committee.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech at the  Delphi Economic Forum IX in Delphi, Greece.

• Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final (March)/ CPI (March)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Final (March)

• Great Britain GDP MoM (February)/ GDP 3-Month Avg (February)/ Goods Trade Balance (February)/ Industrial and Manufacturing Production MoM (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Construction Output YoY (February)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (March)

• France Inflation Rate YoY Final (March)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Final (March)

• Spain Core Inflation Rate YoY Final (March)/ CPI (March)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Final (March)/ Inflation Rate YoY Final (March)

• Euro Area ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters/ ECB Elderson Speech

• Italy Industrial Sales YoY JAN

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, April 13, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 14, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.